and netflix. so a bit of a bid there for some of the names, morgan >> we're coming off the lows of the session already with the major averages still in the red, but not at the worst levels we've seen gold is higher crude is higher, though. and bond yields continue to be lower. that's going to do it for "squawk on the street. tech check starts now. ♪ ♪ welcome to "tech check." i'm carl quintanilla f-16s have been deployed stocks sharply lower, although we have seen swings in the session. nasdaq trimming its loss to 60 points or so we're watching all of that as

implications for global markets, commodities and certainly what the fed may do next month. our kayla toushi is back with us and what we might expect to hear from the president at 12:30. >> the president has been monitoring the situation, meeting in the situation room with his national security team as russians led an invasion from three of ukraine's borders and from the air there are several meetings that have followed throughout the day today. a meeting with g7 leaders virtually as they are trying to calibrate their next steps on sanctions. that just wrapped, and a nato summit of leaders is expected to take place later today as is a meeting of the european council. president biden, as you mention, is going to be speaking next hour, expecting to roll out the next wave of sanctions the next response from the u.s. and western allies to that invasion, which was viewed by them as the worst case scenario. the scenario that they were trying to deter for the last

weeks and months so what sanctions could we expect the administration to announce what we know so far, both from what the administration has said publicly and from sources we've been speaking to who have been briefed on these sanctions, is we do expect them to tarettget high-tech exports to moscow, semiconductors, artificial technology for aerospace and defense that would allow russia to modernize its economy going forward. we also expect the administration to target the biggest russian financial institutions and we also expect the administration to target more individuals in russia with sanctions. of course, we did see the u.s. target five elite individuals with sanctions earlier this week, but stopped short of some of the highest echelons of russian public service, and stopped short of putin. unclear whether these sanctions

would be including president putin as well. there are some open questions about what could be left on the cutting room floor here. we know that discussions have taken place around whether to block russia's access to the swift payment system, but i'm told that that is intrude as unlikely because european companies and to a lesser extent american companies use the swift payment system to acquire things from russia that would not be included in those sanctions and that would make global transactions and global commerce extremely difficult. and finally oil and gas exports from russia. although there are reports that credit is being denied for end buyers of some russian energy, bank executives so far haven't seen that and some sources i'm speaking to suggest that targeting russian financial institutions would be able to limit some of that energy export without cutting off all export of energy altogether we'll have to see what the administration announces and the what exact fine print is

those are the contours, john, based on what we're spiething a -- expecting and what the administration has said publicly >> i know you'll continue to watch it kayla, thank you >> sure. >> our don chu has more. >> we were talking about the market gyrations at the low of the day, put things in context for you, we were down nearly 3.5% overall for certain parts of the nasdaq 100 market you can see there the invesco qqq trust is off by one-half of 1% at the lowest of the day we were down nearly 3.5% so it's a decent bounce. a lot of that could be short covering a lot of that could be the notion some players are trying to find some identifiable, rather, values as the markets have at least for the nasdaq entered that so-called 20% drop from the record highs or the correction/bear market phase of the market overall so invesco qqq something to

watch. the megacap stocks that are trying to take a peek at green territory, positive territory for the day, include some of the biggest ones out there take a look at shares of microsoft, alphabet and amazon they're all up fractionally. that may not seem like a lot, but each of these stocks at the lows of the session just after the opening bell, were down anywhere from 2 to 4%, so again, megacap technology and communication services and discretionary catching some of the bid. some of the biggest gaps where the lows were on an intraday basis and where we currently are now are on some of the names that have been hit hard over the course of the last several weeks. and maybe even a couple of months at this point you want to take a look at some of these names specifically in semiconductors, specifically in other parts of the market like electric vehicles take a look, though, at shares of tesla, also in phase energy and arista networks. on the up side after dips in the opening bell, tesla is on a run.

those are some of the biggest bounces. we're going to end here not on something technology, but something that may be indicative of sentiment overall in the market many travel names have been seeing a bit of a bounce from the lows as well take a look at some of these names. airlines in particular cruise lines as well if you look at, say, norwegian cruise lines, a booking company like booking holdings they just had earnings also alaska airlines, pen national gaming. leisure names have bounced off the session lows and are trying to make a move to the up side. still, a lot of volatility we'll see if that lasts, but a lot of mixed narratives in the market now guys, i'll send it back to you >> before you go, don, one explanation this morning for some of the rebound in those tech names is the way in which geopolitics is re-setting fed expectations we know how highly leveraged some of those names are to future path of interest rates. >> absolutely. and it was just earlier this

morning on "squawk box" when muhammad at queens college made the comment that in his opinion, he thinks that 50 basis points in terms of a hike has now, in his words, taken off the table and many of those peoplewho were calling for 8 or 9 interest rate hikes throughout the course of the year now have to ratchet down those expectations. even futures markets for fed funds and interest rates have been reducing the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting in march certainly it will be in effect with the overall ukraine/russia situation. the fed finds itself in a tough spot, guys we have even worse inflation with fuel prices and wheat prices and corn prices at the same time they're trying to not raise interest rates to counter that it's a tough spot for sure for the fed, guys. >> especially with oil dangerously close to 100 today, dom, thank you, dom chu. joining us is retired brigadier general.

it's great to have you with us this morning appreciate your time i'd love to know what you think about the quote from the u.s. official we believe it is our assessment russia has every intention of basica basically decapitating the government anything to dissuade you of that view >> not at all. the military operation is right out of the russian textbooks they're starting off with cyber, then moving on to air-strikes, artillery strikes. i would expect to see massive movements of para troopers and machinized vehicles soon that only has one purpose, that's to take over the entire country and hang onto it they'll do that by not only putting their soldiers on the ground, but the government this is offices as well >> jgeneral petraeus was on our air yesterday, putin might have reserved, might have currency,

cash, gold, but doesn't have necessarily popular support to make this work for a long period of time. is that true >> well, one has to ask the question does support even matter for president putin all the polls up to this point have been very negative on the notion of sending soldiers into ukraine is bringing them back in body bags, but that does not seem to have dissuaded president putin for carrying out this operation. so if he doesn't have popular support, that may be true, but it may be unimportant. >> general, in terms of what's next for sanctions, there are increasing calls to ban russia from the swift international payment system i understand that hesitation given the role of that system for european creditors as well as non-sanctioned industries but is that the kind of sacrifice that may be needed here what else might amount to shock and awe sanctions that could be used here? be >> well, i think we have to look at the entire notion of

sanctions and the entire theory of sanction. purposes of sanctions for trying to change the behavior of a national leader to compel or dissuade that national leader from taking an action. i think the record of sanction at this point is pretty weak take a look at north korea, iraq, iran, cuba, venezuela. none of them have changed significant behavior on the part of their leaders so i think in many ways, the people who are hurt are not only the businessmen, but the people of those countries leaders don't react to sanctions. >> general, take a broader view, if you will, on the impact for the european economy i mean, it seems like europe's been tying its economies together for the past 70 years post world war ii. this is the biggest war on the continent since then have prices of energy and commodities spiking. what's the likely impact on

spending consumer behavior, consumer confidence, even as we watch this war, this tragedy play out >> when you take a look at the experiment of the european union, i don't think it's going to split apart just because of this particular event. i think the reaction on the part of the consumer and on the part of the government is very similar to what we're seeing in the united states. there doesn't seem to be a significant reason why this would change behavior on the part of the individuals. you may see the same inflation in europe from higher energy prices, but i think fundamentally it won't cause a split in e.u. experiment we've been seeing for the past 70 years. >> and so as we think about companies that have exposure to europe, we've been talking a lot about supply chain issues up to this point now i wonder what might happen with demand. even if buying patterns overall

continue, might we expect this to dampen overall demand somewhat >> well, it could be i mean, those aren't military questions as much as financial questions. there is a theory that markets and behaviors will rebound quickly after these type of shock events i wouldn't expect to see this play out much longer candidly the people in europe are about as indifferent to the attack inside of ukraine as people of russia are opposed to it but in both cases we will see some level of settling down after whatever conclusion we're going to see of this, and the sanctions may have a minor impact but both demand signals and the supply capabilities won't be significant there except perhaps in the energy sectors. >> so, does that mean that in the medium term, diplomacy plays

a role here? where does diplomacy leave us after this initial stage, after this opening gambit of his >> well, honestly, i think diplomacy is out of the window at this point. it's gone. i mean, if president putin won't react and change his behavior by the calls of the united nation, every nation with the exception of china has opposed this invasion, i'm not sure where the scope for diplomacy is there may be a settlement bargain at some point between the russians and whatever the future of ukraine is going to be but the notion of diplomacy, of finding middle ground between two sides, i think that is very much out of the window at this point. >> would you describe russia as a pariah state right now >> it's certainly heading that way. i'm not sure russia is a pariah state, but putin has made himself a pariah dictator.

>> general, thank you for helping open up this hour of coverage thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> and let's get a quick check on markets president nasdaq has now turned positive take a look at alibaba the stock is moving down following a mixed earnings report the chinese tech giant beat on earnings, but revenue grew at the slowest rate since it went public in 2014 l sluggish retail sales. alibaba shares have fallen 50% over the last year that comes as china increases its antitrust and data policy regulations, john. >> yes, major indices, well, a couple of them in the red. nasdaq as dee just mentioned, pumping into the green a 10th of a percent. let's talk more about the market response today, what it means for investors. joining us now, wells fargo chairman of global internet investment banking bob peck

it's good to see you this morning i'm seeing a lot of growth internet names up quite a bit. i mean, asana is up 8% palantir if that counts as internet, roku up 6 1/2. service now up nearly 6. does that tell us anything about resilience in this market or no? >> first of all, thanks for having me and it's great to see you again, albeit virtually. can't wait to be live back on the desk soon. to get to your question, yeah, i think you want to pull back for a second for the year the recent highs, the tech market has been down. the nasdaq 17% give or take. a lot of the megacap names, the larger names down 25%-plus with that, what you've really seen is multiple compression first of all, in the broader s&p, falling from 22 times to about 19 times more in line with the five-year historic average but in the tech side,

particularly the vast majority of the pull back of these names has really been multiple compression. so what we've seen in talking to our institutional clients, at what point here is too much, and where can you start adding to quality names. where we're seeing investors really focus are on names that are high-quality, recurring revenues, strong businesses and balance sheets, and starting to nibble a bit here. as we all know, still a lot of question marks left in the market now people are on the side lines trying to gauge what to do >> how closely are you going to be watching the impact on the european economy and perhaps companies even, you know, megacap tech companies that have large exposure to europe, whether it's from an m & a perspective or demand revenue perspective, might that have an important impact for investors to watch >> absolutely. what we've been doing not only today but the last several weeks is getting in touch with our

corporate clients and helping them think through if there is an invasion, what would that mean, particularly on your supply chain, raw materials, impacts there. on revenues to your point, being able to sell, having sanctions those being impacted at all. your capital structure do you want to bolster your balance sheet at this point? do you feel like you are fully funded to free cash flow positive lastly, we're helping them think about if there is a pullback in the markets, are there m & a opportunities that become interesting? we saw what microsoft did with activision we're coming off a record m & a, $6 trillion of m & a what's really interesting there, there is so much private capital around p.e. was one of 6 trillion venture capital as you know doubled its deployed funds from

6 billion from 3 billion we're helping our corporate clients think through the m machinations >> we have palo alto networks up more than 10%. crowd strike up 9% we've seen a lot of chop ines this morning these seem like an obvious bet as the anticipation of more cyber attacks ramps up >> i agree, it is the obvious bet, everyone has been talking about cyber security with the events taking place here as we thought about other subsectors in technology, really what we try to do is where do you have the types of companies that, once again, very established with strong balance sheets, high visibility into revenue, recurring revenue type nachz. one can benefit from changes taking place in the market place.

the social networks are interesting. you see increased user engage: how will facebook, twitter, snapchat, how will they prevent -- have strong engagement across their platform that's what you'll see investors look for, quality type companies. >> bob, what about the payments, fentech space, we talk about what more aggressive sanctions might look like, banning from the international payment system what would that mean, for markets, payment companies, there would be disruption in terms of the flow of money what would it mean for markets >> there would be. and the driven question of that, then, what does that mean as far as cryptoand cryptoadoption as that takes place you have a bunch of events taking place at the same exact time when we talk about it, we try and look at the longer term nature of what's happening all the companies that are pioneering that way, that's where clients are, trying to

figure out near term how they'll be impacted. long term blossoming out >> speaking of long term, what do you think happens with business confidence in europe and american companies vis-a-vis the term has that structure changed >> it's too early to say once again, i'm not a geopolitical analyst -- >> i'm not talking geopolitics just what your clients are saying about long term m & a, investment, growing businesses across the continent >> long term i don't think there is any structural change at all. you'll see cross border m & a, cross vertical m & a and you'll continue to see incremental private dollars helping fund some of these european start-ups as well as international companies. long term it's a very robust future for tech. >> all right

bob peck putting us all in perspective on a difficult day thank you. >> thanks so much. by the way, as we've been talking, nasdaq's gone green and the russell awfully close as well cyber attacks and security top of mind following the invasion experts warn american businesses need to stay vigilant. aman javers has more eamon? >> c.e.o.s are calling on american companies to be in a wheels up cyber posture today. the cyber infrastructure and security agency want people to empower their chief security officers make sure everyone in the company understands that security investments are a top priority right now lower your reporting thresholds. they want people to report all cyber incidents today, even those incidents that are stopped by company defenses so they can be aware out there

and they want you to plan table top to focus on supply chain ensure tests are conducted to ensure critical business functions can continue during even an extreme cyberattack scenario plan for the worst is what they're saying the u.s. government saying it doesn't have credible information now regarding specific threats to the u.s. homeland but warns managers should ensure they can disconnect parts of their networks if they are hit by an attack meanwhile, in terms of what comes next to any potential u.s. sanction, i spoke with dmitry alpervich, robust sanctions could make everythingwe've see come before in cyber security look like a practice run >> the colonial pipeline is going to be like child's play if the russians unleash all their capability, particularly the capability of their ransomware

services we could see colonial pipeline in terms of 100 truly targeted by some of the top tier cyber actors in the world. >> now, the other deeply concerning element here is russian control of natural resource exports out of russia, and now possibly ukraine depending on the military situation on the ground. russia could sanction back the west's access to these resources, items like nickel, aluminum, timber, and the fertilizer that could come from russia that could cause huge supply change and inflation here in the united states. back over to you >> eamon, these are scary scenarios. we've been talking about the last few years security measures, critical infrastructure had been taking can you sort of say how much of a better position we are or not

in over the last year? are the public and private sectors working better, cooperating together >> look, we may be about to find out. the facilities facilities sis has been a lot around the government 0 private sector working ships. we'll see how things are behind that rhetoric if things heat up for russian activity you saw the biden line over the summer from just a ransomware attack russian intelligence has capabilities vastly greater than the ransomware gang. the russians have been able to penetrate infrastructure systems for years now, and had systems waiting to go in case of any emergency scenario they wanted to use if they were unleash that, we have no idea what it would look like

we've never seen it in history it would create a hybrid warfare difficult for the united states to respond to. the fear, all that could escalate between the united states and russia, not stay contained in the cyber realm that's the scary scenario no one wants to get to. >> eamon, appreciate that. so much to cover eamon javers the nasdaq going green, got our attention moments ago. the s&p trimming its losses to less than 1% nasdaq at one point was down 3%, and currently up 4 points. tech check back after a break.

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welcome back to "tech check. i'm carl quintanilla with julia bosa and john. the nasdaq has briefly gone green as we are seeing some megacap tech get bought here

>> here's what's happening this hour a top defense official says russia is in the initial phase of a large-scale invasion of ukraine. they are moving on three major fronts to capture major cities and remove the ukrainian government boris johnson says this is a global crisis. >> this attack is not just an attack on ukraine. it is an attack on democracy in eastern europe and the world this is about the right of a free sovereign independent european people to choose their own future, and that is a right that the uk will always defend >> meantime, in eastern ukraine an apartment building is one of

many hit by bombs and missiles firefighters work to extinguish flames as residents try to salvage their belongings across ukraine people trying to escape are clogging roads. traffic was at a stand still, a million people near the eastern border of russia john, back to you. >> rahel, thank you. for more on the market reaction to the invasion of ukraine and sharp intraday move, let's get to bob pisani. >> traders are trying to figure out a bottom it has a tentative feel to it what's important is nasdaq turned positive and that's because megacap tech has turned positive look at the s&p 500. we were down 100 points right at the open the low print was just at the open we have now cut those losses you see there by 60% the reason the nasdaq has turned positive, megacap has turned positive why has this happened? no particular macro reason why the trading community has led

itself to believe the fed is going slower, the 50 basis point rate hike in march which the market is afraid of, everyone agrees the fed has to hike rates, slower to combat inflation. not necessarily any hard evidence to support that just a mental belief going on. elsewhere, other signs of interesting little movement in the markets. consumer staples are getting sold heavily today that's interesting because consumer staples have been outperformers not just for this week, but for the year when they start selling them and they've been relative o outperformers, not necessarily the sign of a bottom just a short-term trading ploy here it is interesting to watch that. what's still continuing is the tough time for banks banks have had a terrible week primarily because interest rates have stopped going up. they're going in the other direction. jpmorgan and goldman have been a

real weight on the dow all week. even the super regional banks, the zions, the fifth third are weaker the market is having a tough time, and historically these three factors when they come together, not good for stocks. number one, of course, we have higher inflation stocks do well for modest inflation, but periods of rapid inflation make it very difficult for corporations to consistent through keep raising prices. that's on the horizon. slower growth, of course, we're nowhere near a recession by higher oil prices are going to way on growth and the fed tightening, slow rate hikes in a strong economy not a problem rapid rate hikes in a slower economy, that's a problem. you put these three factors together historically, this is a no-go for the stock market is there any sign of a bottom? we just don't know yet these are the kinds of things traders look for a drop in the selling pressure have we seen that?

no how about multiple downside days where the volume of pricing is down 90% suddenly 90% up side days where people changed their mind quickly? haven't seen that either divergence in new lows is that reversing? not really so, we haven't seen anything that would indicate a bottom, deirdre, and we won't know until we get some clear resolution to this kacrisis back to you. >> bob, thank you. our next guest is calling for harsher sanctions against russia including oil and gas. atlantic council c.e.o. fred kemp i'm not sure you heard our conversation with general kimmit other leaders haven't listened is it because they -- is the

general right? >> the biden administration are putting together the sanctions at 12:30 president biden will speak and we'll hear about more and talk to you about what i think -- what i'm expecting from that speech. and the administration officials now for biden were the officials for obama in 2014, and they concede at that time the sanctions they put in place against putin really did no good they didn't influence him at all. this time they say they're going to do it in such a way it influences him going after families, going after the family members and the children, going after some major banks and that's what i think is going to be announced today. the vtd is down half in value. one of the spare banks in russia, roshnev bank, there will be a set of sanctions that block

transfers. you'll hear more about that. they see these as more serious where you're right, we're talking about russia, the 11th largest country in the world, invading a country of 44 million people from an economic standpoint if you go too far, which i'm pushing for, they say that's not in the cards you're going to hurt the global economy and yourselves at the same time. these have to be calculated to do the most harm to putin and the least harm to the world economy. >> fred, what about some of the other export sanctions that have been talked about such as targeting industries like chips and artificial intelligence capabilities are you expecting that later today? where do you put that in the grand scheme of things >> there are two, that's one we used against china in huawei it was unique. it hadn't been used before huawei that's on the table, but i'm told it's not going to be

announced today. that's in the back pocket as things go further. the other thing we've been pushing for is not in the cards, which is central bank sanctions. that essentially freezes in place the russian central bank has all over the world quick convertibility it is maybe even a tougher sanction than swift. i think they do not want to go there for the purpose -- for the reason that it is a g-20 economy and it could hurt others as much as it hurts russia but that certainly would be a very tough sanction. the russian economy is much more important economy systemically, and so far the administration hasn't gone there. >> fred, isn't this really about ch china? to some extent somebody wants to be part of your club but china isn't even calling this invasion of ukraine an

invasion and they're trading with russia more, it to pierce doesn't that create what the u.s. has and more of an east dynamic here >> russia has three things that will hurt it more than one normally would the first is $100 oil going up that puts a lot of money in their pockets. they have $7 billion in currency reserves the third is your point, china china is a little torn here because on the one happened, china refers -- sorry, the u.n. charter that says you should not go into a ukraine, sovereign country and subjugated ruch has become a much better ally you had a 5,000 word joint

statement written by xi and putin. we haven't seen that common cause since world war ii on the other hand, china has to be a little bit careful because they don't want to be seen abetting a terrible war. and so it's going to be really interesting to see how china navigates this next period of time >> that's interesting, fred, because the wires this morning, i have a couple of bulletins, russia is offering crude at a record discount as some of their byers have the worst day in history. putin is on the tape saying we're part of the global economy, we do not plan the system we belong to. is that some feeling among the elites, that these early sanctions will buy i think that putin has been surprised, the extent western democracies have come together

the biden administration has done well unifying with the united states with a tough set of sanctions maybe they are not testify enough the head of the european commission and the nato secretary-g secretary-general stoltenberg. i think putin i has got to hedge a little bit here. seeing our unity, seeing the hurt to his own ee conme, so far he's hill military installations, command and control. he's been quite careful not to hit civilian population in ukraine. when body bags start going back to russia, it is dramatically different. >> thank you for your insights

this morning we'll talk to you again soon >> thank you so much >> sharp intraday moving our julia boorstin has some of the biggest movers in tech julia? >> well, john, bucking the overall downward trend, the best performer in the s&p live nation the stock up more than 6% after the company reported better than expected revenue in the fourth quarter and shared a bullish outlook for the year saying they did expect 2022 to set records movie stocks are higher after i maximum reported better than expected results up 2%, while sen i mark is up 1% they have been selling off by discovery, fewer streaming subscribers than analyst expected

that stock down 6% its footprint in eastern europe than its media rivals impacted by the conflict in ukraine in places like poland the company reported worst subscriber losses and anticipated. mean meanwhile, app, most of them up over 3%. roku shares are much higher. roku shares now 5.5% bolstered by kathy woods art fund increasing its position in that stock. that etf is up 2.5% today. michael nathan son, derives a small portion of revenues from europe, google saying the

biggest risk is inflation and invasion impacts consumer confidence in the eurozone and damages consumer demand which hurts performance marketing. now, with that greater exposure to the eastern european market, we do see meta platform space, those shares are down marginally alphabet google was down earlier but now back in the green up half a percent guys >> julia, a lot of this has gotten buried for obvious reasons. two stories caught my attention on the spending side one was caesars earlier in the week saying they're going to curtail a lot of marketing especially on broadcast. and today the discovery cfo saying how much money is enough in terms of content spending it's not about winning the spending war money doesn't score goals. i wonder if you think that's a big pivot. >> what's interesting is discovery has always been small early than these other streaming players. it is not going to be investing in original streaming content as, say, netflix is.

what i think discovery was trying to say, discovery was trying to say they're gun to be spending toe to toe with the likes of netflix or disney of course, we are awaiting that deal with warner media to close. they will be combining those streaming assets they won't be spending as much money as netflix is. that is one factor weighing on the stock. also remember, discovery, one of the advantages is it does have this european presence the question, though, is whether that becomes a downside. when you look at potential disruptions to the ad market >> certainly, julia. thank you. meanwhile looking at bookings, bookings holdings, one of the biggest laggards on the nasdaq julia did mention social media how russian media, leading the

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nasdaq was down 3.5% now down half a% stock made a 5% intraday move in the last couple hours. our lesli picker is here looking at how this dynamic could impact

the largest investors and funds. lesli. >> john, today is the kind of day that spot lights macro hedge funds. they've been the stand out in 2022 pulling in gains in january when others posted losses. we'll find out in a few weeks whether she successfully navigated the geopolitical events, although this is exactly the type of environment that would lead investors to macro. macro bets on global bonds, currencies, equities and positions portfolios basedon certain political and economic events after years of struggling macro gains gained 1.7% in january on an asset weighted basis. according to fhr, it accounted for 5% for hedge funds and negative 5% overall. bridgewater is the largest and perhaps most well known macro fund solidly in the green during january. macro hedge funds received in flows of $33 billion last year

to end the year with -- sorry, $637 billion in aum despite strategy performance in 2021 it's clear that investors were anticipating global events that would warrant putting additional capital into this type of strategy this stands in contrast to the major technology focused investors who are the clear winners over the last few years. we talked about them many, many times on this program in particular, but whose returns have been absolutely bleeding in 2022 amid a sell off in growth names? jpmorgan urging investors in a new note this morning to hedge their geopolitical risksby increasing allocations to commodities, energy and materials which the firm said would diversify a portfolio in rising geopolitical risks and covid reopening. what you might expect to see from macro fund managers, guys >> we'll see how their views develop. thank you, lesli picker. let's talk about the

russia/ukraine conflict. the next guest is maintaining her petion, expecting volatility in the short term, but she does not see a long-term deterioration due to global economy. joining us is megan chu. good to have you flat is a kind of position sounds like that's where you are today. >> yeah, carl, thanks so much for having me. i don't know about flat being a position we do have an overweight equity in portfolios. patience is definitely a position we think is warranted right now. it rarely is fruitful in the long run to sell in a panic market i really do think that's what we're faced with there is so much uncertainty, it's geeopolitical in nature which is difficult to model and price accordingly. i think this is a very serious political event and it has some spillover implications for investors. but as of right now, we expect a

somewhat modest economic impact, economic spillover fairly modest adjustment downward for areas most closely associated with the conflict associated with the conflict that's unfolding, namely europe, and probably the biggest risk to the u.s. consumer would be if oil prices escalate further and stay elevated for a prolonged period of time where clearly sentiment has deteriorated because of inflationary concerns. >> for those who are more worried about commodity disruption and security around the world. this whole situation inflating, stagflationary fears why aren't you as worried about that >> we're concerned upside inflation is one of the biggest risks we're monitoring we still have an expectation in the u.s. that growth is going to

remain solid we have a 3% gdp forecast for 2022 while certainly slower than 2021, that's not a stagflationary backdrop. again, the oil price transmission mechanism is the biggest risk, but so far the price of oil is trading on fear of disruptions we have not seen any supply disruptionses. we don't anticipate that as our base case. it would hurt everyone, not only russia and u.s policymakers are very worried about using that as a sanction tool in this environment we do think that oil prices could moderate and again, economic backdrop comes to fruition that that's not a stagflationary environment >> megan, it's hard at this moment to judge how much pain western economies are willing to self-inflict with russia, as we get prepared to hear more

sanctions, is there something that would make you hear your near-term thesis with export controls on semis or the commodities, and banning russia from swift yeah some of those more dramatic sanctions would probably have more in terms of spillover to europe, and i think that is -- that is a possibility again. we heard that europe has opposed so far taking some of those steps and endorsing those. i think the biden administration will be hesitant that could do anything that could jeopardize the energy supply, but there is a lot of unknown right now again, i think when you see volatility spike like this out of a global economic slowdown or a recession, which is still not our base case even under the more dire scenario that's

unfolding, we think it's a move higher over the next 12 months and there are other conditions to be thinking about in terms of the energy markets, as well with the possibility of iranian supply coming on and maybe at the margin some relief on prices from relief of strategic petroleum reserves there's just too much uncertainty right now. so all we can do is stick to what we do know and what is unfolding and we just are avoiding at this moment, it could change it's changing by the hour, really, but at this moment we are not selling our risk positions. >> that's what i wonder not just about selling positions and what you might buy instead because it does seem like this tighter alliance perhaps between russia and china that we were talking about earlier could be significant. we've been talking about u.s.-china decoupling. do you end up having to think about the strong possibility of europe-russia decoupling and its

implications not just for energy and commodities, but for the availability of markets in general. >> i think we're moving into a new regime where you have a centralization of power from the u.s., maybe china, and i think one of putiny goal's goals is to create a more political economic environment. i think the alliance between china and russia should make any investor apprehensive and obviously, i think president xi is watching all of this closely. there has been the next order of crisis would be something involving taiwan as you cover here and the semiconductor industry in particular which is already reeling from supply chain disruption and we know the minerals and the gasses that come out of ukraine in particular in a very heavy

concentration that are utilized for semiconductors and this would put an additional strain on that particular part of the market overall tech is starting to look more attractive for us as an investment allocation and we've been neutral to technology i think it is selling on weakness of higher inflation the fed unlikely to hold back their plan for raising interest rates and these valuations and taking a longer term outlook, i think there are some opportunities within that sector >> certainly some feel that way and we're watching the ark innovation etf up almost 2.5% today to that very point megan, i appreciate it very much i'm sure we'll be talking about it soon. megan shue >> tech was leading us to the dunn down side, and at the bottom, financials, consumer staples and oddly enough energy. more when "tech check" returns after this break they're banking, with bank of america.

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we hear from the president and congress urging biden to stand strong against russia. ylan mui has more on that. ylan >> congress has begun discussing an emergency package to bolster the biden administration's sanctions against russia and support ukraine. democrats say it will need at least a billion dollars in humanitarian relief alone over

the next year. lawmakers in both parties have been pushed to send additional weapons like drones and missiles and he wants money to shore up the cybersecurity protections as well and there's bipartisan support for increasing funding for the defense department to deploy troops to our nato allies alyssa slotkin, a former cia analyst and top defense official tweeted this congress has a role to play in the coming days. we need to finalize a package of sanctions, grease the skids for more military aid and make clear that despite our differences, reasonable democrats and republicans are united in condemning russia's unwarranted aggression lawmakers are currently on recess, but guys, they will receive a briefing from top white house officials later on today on the developing situation in ukraine over to you. >> ylan, that's fascinating. adam schiff on the tape saying there's pressing concern that russian cyber attacks may extend

beyond ukraine, but he does expect a long and bloody battle. corporate earnings are going to get overshadowed today, but after the bell today we'll get coin, etsy, a company formerly known as square, dell, beyond meat and intuit. let's get to the half with melissa lee. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm melissa lee in today for scott wapner wild ride as russia invades ukraine and the s&p falls deeper into correction territory. we'll debate the best strategies for protecting your portfolio in this turmoil our investment committee today, bryn talkington, steve weiss, josh brown and pete najarian co-founder of market rebellion.com. let's get a check of the markets. as we mentioned what a ride today. the s&p having its worst month since march 2020 the nasdaq did fall into the bear market before wiping out its big losses and big-cap technology, really the winner here along with the innovation names and the arkin