it's really also this globalization in reverse playing out where we're going to see this upward pressure across commodities in unpredictable ways >> going back to a world where spheres of influence is the apt phrase >> all righty, hang in there, everybody. thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. and welcome to "closing bell." i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker wall street and the world squarely folkcuses on eastern europe stocks in america and across the globe fell sharply on news of the attacks, although u.s. markets have seen this stunning recovery nasdaq up 2% after being down 3.5% at the lows s&p turning green as well. >> here's the latest on what we know this hour this afternoon, president biden announcing a slew of fresh economic sanctions on russian banks and elites more on that in a moment this after g7 leaders said in a

statement they were, quote, appalled by and condemn russia's actions. ukraine said the country is being attacked from the south, northeast, and from the air. saying dozens of soldiers and several civilians have been killed >> we're going to be all over the crisis in europe and the impact on global markets throughout the show. an amazing lineup of experts, including eurasia group's ian bremmer, liz ann sonders from schwab, energy expert paul sankey, and many others. >> let's get straight to our coverage of the crisis in europe kayla tausche has the latest from wash. bob pisani is tracking the market impact, and ian bremmer is here to break down what could happen next. kayla, start us off with the latest on america's response >> the u.s. and eu rolling out a wide variety of sanctions, all of which were first reported this morning by cnbc and they are all in response to russia's full-scale military invasion of ukraine, which began overnight. just last hour, we heard from

president biden that the u.s. and the eu will be freezing the assets of four russian banks with $1 trillion in assets, blocking western financial access for six russian oligarchs, and banning the export to russia of technology and software that serve russia's defense, aerospace, and maritime industries now, the move stopped short of sanctioning vladimir putin himself, the country's energy sector, as well as its access to the global payment system known as s.w.i.f.t president biden receiving several questions on those fronts, acknowledging european allies did not support the u.s.'s push to remove russia from the s.w.i.f.t. system, but said keeping the west aligned was the priority >> the sanctions we have imposed exceed s.w.i.f.t the sanctions we imposed exceed anything that's ever been done the sanctions we imposed have generated two-thirds of the world joining us they are profound sanctions. >> immediately following that speech, details from the

treasury department on the sanctions for elite individuals, details from the commerce department on the novel export controls, as these details are trickling out, the president acknowledging it will take some time for the financial bite of these sanctions to reach russia and it could be up to a month before the full effect is seen and perhaps we see a change in calculation by president putin >> kayla, it seemed like the markets breathed a sigh of relief after hearing more about the sanctions the administration put into place do you think it will take that full month before they enact additional potentially more severe sanctions if the crisis continues along the path that it's going, or do you think this is essentially where they're going to stop and see what happens from here? >> well, certainly, the u.s., leslie, has been wanting to move further into stricter sanctions. not notably, putting sanctions on russia's energy market, notably banning russia from the s.w.i.f.t. system that settles global payments, but it's hard

to see how europe could get onboard with that. it's been european allies that for weeks now have not been onboard with banning russia from s.w.i.f.t. or blocking those energy exports because there are such supply constraints in europe they get about a third of their energy on the oil market from russia about 40% of natural gas from russia, so certainly, there is a heavy reliance on russian energy, and there's a view from the biden administration as well as allies that perhaps targeting these banks and some of these other institutions is a way to indirectly get at some of those sectors without targeting them directly we'll have to see what the next few weeks bring, but as of right now, it's hard to see how the european allies specifically would have a change of heart >> kayla, thanks for that. a lot more from you later on global markets, of course, have traded lower all day, although u.s. equities sharply rebounding, taking a leg higher after the president's speech dow narrowing its losses to less

than 140 points. bob pisani watching how investors are viewing the market that's a couple times we tried to rally out of a white house presser. >> a 125-point move in the s&p 500. that's a three standard deviation move on a single day that's about 3% here we were starting to move up as president biden started speaking, but afterwards, as people realized again the sanctions not quite as severe as people anticipated, particularly not banning russia from the s.w.i.f.t. system, then of course, the additional news, no sanctions on russian crude exports, look what happened to some of the oil stocks all moved down oil was $100 earlier in the day, went down to $92 exxon was sitting around $79 at the open it went all the way down to $74. that's a 7% move in exxon. biggest oil stock out there. that's a lot elsewhere, support all day from big cap tech names, a belief that maybe the fed will not be as aggressive raising rates. they have to raise rates to deal with inflation, but maybe not 50

basis points in march. that's been helpful. there's a hot of problem areas the dow has been plagued all day long by problems in the financial seconder jpmorgan, goldman sachs, visa, insurance companies like travelers have been down as interest rate have been declining in the last couple days a separate problem with united health as the justice department is suing to block a big acquisition they're trying to make finally, want to note, new lows still expanding here just because we had a turnaround, it doesn't change the technical damage big industrials, 3m, honeywell, caterpillar also, 52-week low today. carl, a lot of damage out there right now. back to you. >> thanks for that for more on the geopolitical implications let's bring in ian bremmer always good to talk to you thanks for the time. >> sure, carl. >> there's bib a lot of discussion about the reserves and had gold and the military

buildup that putin has been able to assemble. ahead of all of this you think that makes him more accepting of any kind of sanction risk. >> i think that's pretty clear i mean, you know, we -- he's gamed out that the maximum level of sanctions that the americans and europeans are prepared to mete out are very severe they're by far the most severe we will have placed against a major power since the soviet union's collapse, but they ultimately aamount to roughly where we are with the iranians putin considers he can handle that i think there's a big question about what he does in a response it's important to remember, carl, that when we put all those sanctions on iran, we basically said we want to drive the iranians to their knees and force them to negotiate or else we would like to get that government out of power. now, we might not say that about putin, but he knows it in response, i don't think he's just going to sit. i do think we will see a revival of cyberattacks against the

united states and the west, and i also think we'll see other economic measures that are going to make life more difficult for the americans and europeans. >> is it your view he will move to weaponize commodity exports and how does he do that on the very same day where we says we want to remain part of the global economy >> yeah, well, i don't think -- look, he said many things, carl. if you're asking how i respond to what putin is saying, my response is for the last month, putin has breathtakingly lied about everything, directly to the face of president biden and chan chancellor shoals and president macron, to last week, i'm pulling troops out of belarus. all of that was provingly and staggeringly false i don't care what he says about wanting to be a part of the global economy i think the fact the chinese government did this joint statement with president putin that included significant amounts of investment and talk

about willingness to engage in energy infrastructure investment that are going to cushion the blow for the russians over the longer term. i think that made it easier to make this decision >> ian, what's your take on beijing and it being kind of a wild card in the equation at this point in time beijing has yet to truly condemn the attacks on the ukraine at this point in time biden declining to comment whether he was pushing them to do so. is beijing part of the thinking in russia at this point in time that they could potentially stem any kind of sanctions blow because they do have an ally there? >> the europeans have been directly trying to push the chinese to condemn the strikes we have seen some statements from the chinese foreign ministry being critical of the sanctions, saying that's not going to help, but so far, not being critical of the decision by president putin to attack but look, i think that given the

fact that putin made this trip to beijing, and given the fact that the chinese gave him the sort of unprecedented joint statement that aligned diplomatically as well as on security world view that the containment of russia from the europeans and the americans was sort of analogous to what the americans and east asians and indians are doing with the quad in china, i have a hard time imagining that putin made the invasion decision without at least giving xi jinping a heads up if he wasn't happy about it, and i'm sure he's not happy, i don't think he pressed the veto either so i think we are going to be limited in just how much proactive support we're going to get from china i don't think that they would engage in a veto with the russians if there was condemnation in the security council, for example i also think that over the coming weeks, after the ukrainian government is overthrown, and the russians feel like they have some stability in what they have accomplished, the chinese

quietly might be useful behind the scenes to try to put some guardrails on some of the imperial ambitions that president putin clearly has. but for right now, china is not fighting with the americans and nato to fix this problem >> right finally, ian, everyone is getting schooled today on s.w.i.f.t. and global payments the president seemed to argue these incremental sanctions on banks would be more severe than s.w.i.f.t. how can that be true >> well, i mean, look, from the perspective of the united states, s.w.i.f.t. wasn't on the table. in part because the europeans didn't want to go there. in part because many americans didn't want to go there. most importantly because it was believed imposing the s.w.i.f.t. sanctions would lead the russians to create their own payment system in short order with the chinese and that would ultimately not be to the benefit, it would be to the disadvantage of the united states so if you compare that with the sanctions that are being placed, including on the most important russian bank, including on all of these oligarchs, the impact

they think it will have on the russian economy, they would argue that over the medium to long term, that level of forced decoupling in areas where the russians don't really have an alternative is more significant. i'm not suggesting you need to buy that argument because swift was never on the table, but i think that's what the thought process behind that talking point was. >> we'll see in a month's time whether that turns out to be true ian bremmer, thank you for joining us >> after the break, technical expert chris verrone looks at the damage done to the market over the past few weeks and the key levels he's watching for support as stocks make a comeback you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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bell." another volatile day for the markets. an early plummet giving way to a stunning rebound the nasdaq and s&p 500 climbing out of a deep hole and turning positive joining us now is chris verrone, head of technical analysis at strategas, a baird company thank you for joining us today >> thanks. >> what was it, technicals at play, fundamentals at play why do you think we saw such a dramatic bounce intraday >> i think certainly the psychology of nasdaq being down 20 at the lows likely set off stops. we went into the day frankly pretty oversold. at one point this morning we had as few as 15% of the nasdaq 100 above its 200-day moving average. these are all conditions that can conspire to get you an interim low or tactical low. what people need to remember is there's a lot of damage and a lot of broken charts out there, and even a 15% rally from here in the triple qs really only brings you back to the now

downward sloping 200-day moving average. that is damage i think that will need to be prepared over the course of the year, and i also think we need to remember when we talk about tech and the qs, tech has been topping relative to the s&p for the better part of the last 18 months. tech and the qs went into this correction not as leaders but as laggards i think that adds to the burden of proof that we're going to need to see to say any rally is the real thing going forward >> chris, do you think at these levels the qs are looking oversold do they have further to go >> i think it's certainly reasonable that we have seen enough of a flush for some type of an interim low, but you're going to run into resistance here that's not a word that any of us have had to use for two words. this word resistance a lot of these broken charts have a lot of resistance now on top of them. what's been most remarkable about particularly some of the big weights in the qs is the analyst community really hasn't changed their opinions on them very much. if you look at the top five

names in the qs, many of them, amazon, for example, 57 of 57 analysts stilt have a buy on it. google, 51 of 52 analysts still have a buy on it i think the street needs to change its impression of some of these names before i would be comfortable saying that we have done enough to flush these for them to return back to the old highs. >> chris, a lot of people looking at 38% retracement of the bull market on the s&p would put you somewhere in the 3800 range. i wonder if you think that makes sense and especially how you're viewing fear on the s&p right now. >> yeah, carl. a great question it's funny how ancient math really comes into play here sometimes. i think that's an appropriate target, not here, but maybe over coming month i want to reiterate y think we have done enough in the short term here to get some type of a response and perhaps we're seeing the beginnings of that today. you know, what struck us a little bit, though, is we would ask, is there enough fear out there to put in a major bottom

and that's where we're a little confused frankly, the put call data which you tend to see spike at some of these good interim lows or good market bottoms, has not spiked here so you have not seen the stress in options you typically would want to see. i think we have done enough for a tactical low i think we can get a pretty good bounce, but there's resistance on top of the major indices and that's not something we have had to contend with for long time. >> do you think there's more fear to come then? am i reading that correctly? >> when you look at all of the survey data, the sentiment work, it started to move in the direction of fear and anxiety, but i wouldn't call it flush i certainly wouldn't call it the same category as what we saw in say march of 2020 or even december of '18, which were similar drawdowns in terms of percentage i think there's more to go watch the put call data. that's about as good of an indicator as we have looking back over the last 30 or 40 years in gauging when the anxiety or the stress in the options market is so pronounced

that a major low is likely ahead. >> that's good stuff, chris. appreciate it very much. chris verrone joining us from stra strategas. >> just about 40 minutes to the bell dow has a little more plowing to do to get to positive. s&p is hanging on to a gain of 29 after the session low after the break, we'll look at some of the familiar stocks that have exposure to russia and ukraine, and later, we'll ask liz ann sonders and jason trenered if today's remarkable comeback is a turning point. check out some of the top searched tickers on cnbc.com and apart from tesla, it's the macros drawing the most interest ten-year yield, dow, oil, and s&p 500 futures. ckn mont

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looking at which food service stocks have high exposure to

russia the firm says mcdonald's has the highest exposure also noted yum brands has significant exposure, meantime on the travel front, the ceo of travel bookings says they're working with customers to relocate to safer places and on the transportation front, u.p.s. suspending service to and from ukraine until further notice fedex says it's monitoring the situation, say it does have some contingency plans in place >> up next, blackstone's head of private wealth on creative ways to find protection in the market, and later, paul sankey tells us just how high he thinks oil prices could rise after brent crude topped $100 per barrel before pulling back remember that? "closing bell" will be right ck

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stocks rebounding sharply from their lows but the major averages are all trading at least 10% below their recent highs. the nasdaq briefly touching bear market territory joining us to talk about how investors can protect themselves in this environment, joan solitar from blackstone. thank you for being here so let's dig right in. i mean, you've got a confluence of concerns here you have geopolitical conflicts now, still have very strong inflation taking place, against a backdrop of an economy still reopening and looking to regain its pre-covid 2019 normalcy. so how should investors be structuring their portfolio to protect themselves in light of all that >> well, first, thank you for having me. great to be here and i would start by saying that

we have long viewed inflation as both pervasive and enduring. and advisers, not just in the most recent period, but really going back, have been looking for investments that could provide good income in a low interest rate environment and protection against that kind of inflation. and so increasingly, you know, they have been gravitating towards fund structures like private lending, where you can have almost all floating rates, so loans that actually rise as interest rates move up, that are senior in the cap structure, very stable large companies, et cetera, and then similarly, in real estate, it's not all real estate, but our funds that really focus on good neighborhoods, areas like multifamily housing, where you

have rent rolls moving up faster than inflation, or trends in e-commerce, so if you think about first mile logistics, similar trends as i look across, i would say private credit, private real estate, other areas, too, but those are front and center, especially when you see the kind of volatility that we're seeing today. >> i'm curious about private credit, though, because as you mentioned, it is floating rate however, if there is a decrease in conditions in the economy, if there is more distress to be have, you could see a default rate go higher for those who are borrowing from these credit funds. does that concern you at all, especially given the geopolitical tensions that are out there and the potential for one-off effects from that? >> today, i would say there's much more risk around rate than there is around credit but we're also talking about first lien, so most of our private portfolio, like 90%, is

first liens. those are the most stable. so if you think about volatility and credit, the most volatile is at the bottom, it's actually not even in credit it's equity. the most stable are first liens. we're really focused on large companies, good neighborhoods, companies with strong cash flows, good interest coverage. and also, you know, the loan to value average in our private portfolio is 43% so we have a lot of equity sitting underneath us. so today, that's not a concern but even going back in time, in this asset class for our firm, we have had just a very low default rate in the order of 20 basis points, really, really tiny i would say today, more concern about rate risk than credit risk >> that's interesting. i wonder, some of those who are arguing that this equity sell-off is worth buying point

to yield spreads in high grade credit, which really haven't bounced around as much as you might think given the volatility implied in equities. why do you think that is >> i think because of what i said earlier, you have had very strong economy, you have investors looking for yield, but i do think you have to distinguish. when i think about our private credit fund, for example, you know, over the first year of existence, which is coming upon our anniversary, we were able to deliver about 12.5% return even in january, which was a very volatile month, where you saw a decline in municipal bonds, a decline in high yields, in our private credit fund, we were able to deliver almost 1% positive return. not all fixed income is created equally, and i do think in this kind of environment, you know, i look at $6 trillion in the u.s. alone that still sits in municipal bonds and longer

duration corporate credit. i think that's vulnerable. it's not where perhaps advisers are thinking about putting a lot of new capital >> joan, you also mention you like private real estate as an area investors could pursue, but i'm curious given a run-up in some of the key areas in terms of infrastructure and last mile logistics for e-commerce, are you concerned those have run up too high at this point in time and perhaps the gains, future gains have already been made >> so i'll start by saying, you know, manager selection is key so it's always a little difficult making huge generalizations. but i can tell you that in our portfolios, we still see a lot of embedded growth in cash flows. so when we look at our portfolios on logistics or multi-family housing, you have real structural shortages. so when you look at the number of houses being built or just even think about lumber prices,

which are up something like four fold, shortage of labor to build houses, it's just not coming as quickly as demand. we like areas that have structural shortages that is true around the world, many places in the world, in housing, in logistics, in data strz, in build to suit office space for biopharmaceutical companies. so i wouldn't want to own long duration office buildings. i think you're vulnerable there. and so again, i don't want to generalize, but it's still about supply and demand. and there's just not a lot of supply in the areas that i'm talking about. >> fascinating and great points, joan appreciate that very much. good to see you. >> thanks. >> dow session highs here, loss of less than 100 points. let's get a news update with tyler mathisen >> thank you very much here's the latest on the invasion of ukraine. president biden denounced what he called a brutal assault on the people of ukraine, without

provocation, justification or necessity. he said russian president putin is the aggressor who chose to start a war and russia will bear the consequences >> today, i'm authorizing additional strong sanctions and new limitations on what can be exported to russia this is going to impose severe cost on the russian economy, both immediately and over time we have purposely designed these sanctions to maximize the long-term impact on russia and to minimize the impact on the united states and our allies >> some ukrainians are now starting to ariver in neighboring countries, including poland at this border crossing, people have been coming through all day. many on foot, with suitcases and bags the u.n. estimates several thousand ukrainians have already fled their country >> and in moscow, and across russia, demonstrations against the attack on ukraine. a russian group that monitors protests says police have detained add least 1400 people

who oppose the invasion. carl, back to ou >> okay, tyler, thanks very much 25 minutes until the closing bell here's where we stand as the dow bulls are going to try to make a run at a green close coming up next, we'll look at how russia's invasion of ukraine is impacting defense stocks. plus, liz ann sonders and jason trennert from strategas and if today's did mark the abottom check some of the meme stocks getting a bid in the last hour amc, gamestop, bed, bath, & beyond, and ark all jumping today. that?" starts here the blank page artists and writers know the tyranny of it well but so do developers, data scientists, ctos the new creators to them, we say let's create something that changes everything ♪ ♪ ♪

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alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league! . get a check on where the dow stands right now this was down 859 points earlier

today. just turned positive for a moment as we get a bunch of different things vix red for example, massive turnarounds intraday let's focus on two parts of the market being impacted by the situation in europe. kate rooney is watching cybersecurity names. morgan brennan first has a look at traditional defense stocks which definitely led us at the open >> absolutely. we have seen volatility in this sector too it had been a mixed picture for aerospace and defense stocks today thanks to this push pull in the sector as investors digest the strong likelihood of increased defense spending but post biden, we're now firmly higher across the board. the ita aerospace and defense etf is up more than 2% right now. harris, raytheon, really leading the gains here jefferies thinks nato spending will now accelerate with the immediate benefit coming through foreign military sales like that $6 billion deal that was just approved by the biden

administration for general dynamics tanks to poland another perspective winner, l3 harris, which has a big tactical communications business, think army radios. other names with european exposure, lockheed, boeing, and mercury, but overall, bigger defense budgets should benefit the entire group, at least from an investor sentiment standpoint >> defense stocks will be in focus in the weeks to come morgan, thank you. cybersecurity stocks leading the nasdaq 100 today, kate rooney has a look at how those names tie into what's happening in ukraine. kate >> investors are looking to cybersecurity stocks for upside during the conflict with russia. cyber software and tech names are among the biggest winners today. four of the top five stocks in the qqq are cyber stocks you have palo alto networks up almost 10% up more than 12% heading into the close. crowd strike up more than 13%.

z scaler as well, another winner, and mandiant as well you also have cyberark and tenable. dan ives recommending the sector in a note to clients this morning. he says with, quote, significant elevated cyberattacks now on the horizon, we believe growth tail winds are here for the cybersecurity sector and well-positioned investors should focus on that seconder during market turmoil. ives calling out some core suber security names he talks about palo alto and z scaler in particular >> clearly an unprecedented territory or potentially unprecedented territory. thank you for following that catch the ceo of crowd strike on "mad money" tonight with jim cramer at 6:00 p.m >> up next, in the market zone, we'll discuss how russia's invasion of ukraine is impacting the energy sector and the banks two key areas to watch this year stay with us alright, so...cords headphones,

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[baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ good to have you back, old friend. yeah, eyes on the road, benny. welcome to a new chapter in investing. [ding] e*trade now from morgan stanley. welcome back here's what's ahead in the second hour of "closing bell." we'll continue to keep you up to speed on all of the developments in ukraine throughout the show today. we'll also focus in on the rise in oil and what it could mean for prices at the pump >> market experts liz ann sonders and jason trennert will tell us how they're advising clients and if they think we have hit a bottom. we'll ask an xpert for under the radar ways to hedge your portfolio against geopolitical tensions >> first, with just about 14 minutes left in the trading day, we're in the "closing bell"

market zone. today, we have jason snipe from odyssey capital advisers and erin browne here to discuss. let's kick things off with the broader market stocks staging a massive comeback this afternoon. near session highs the dow briefly goes positive. the nasdaq was down 3.5% at the session low. i was struck by something that pimco's libby cantrell wrote earlier in the week. that is that the idea of u.s. ground troops was once thought to be impossible some argue still is, but we have been moving directionally towards that what implications would that have for the market? >> i think the market today and the rally that we saw, particularly into the close this afternoon, was largely in response to the fact that the measures announced by biden and the administration and the u.s. allies were not as draconian as the market feared. i think that's why you saw the market rally a little bit into the close. i think from here, you know, i

really think that the market is going to be focused on the impact to the u.s. and the u.s. consumer and ultimately the u.s. economy. and as long as we don't see sort of the worst off measures announced, i think that the market is going to remain relatively contained in terms of the response to u.s. equities. >> jason, were you surprised by the rebound that we saw midday today? i know you said in the producers notes the geopolitical tensions throughout history have been met with a short blip in declines in the markets followed by gained one year later this happened pretty quickly >> yeah, absolutely, leslie. good to see you. for me, historically, if we're looking at history, markets do respond, these oftentimes are short term impacts from a market perspective and market will respond at least 12 months later, being higher. but yes, this was -- it's encouraging news the nasdaq was down 3.5%, as

carl mentioned, early in the session. is now up almost 2%. it's encouraging news. my focus still tends to be on inflation, you know, the fed the fed's decision here on march 16th and how that plays out after a pretty solid earnings season not a lot of news over the last couple weeks but there might be more volatility to ensue here. >> absolutely. speaking of volatility, major u.s. banks declining today largely over investor concerns that they could face indirect impacts from the conflict in europe however, the big lenders are off their lows today the big lenders jpmorgan, bank of america, and wells fargo did post the steepest declines among the big banks. you can see right now, down more than 2.8% for each of those. goldman sachs and morgan stanley also lower today as well bank analyst mike mayo says the biggest impact stems from these firms' exposure to europe and specifically whether this crisis

thwarts the region's post-covid recovery additionally a flight to safety could flatten the yield curve. goldman sachs derives nearly a quarter of its revenue from europe bank of new york mellon derives a substantial amount as well least impacted is bank of america, which has only a 5% exposure to europe but would still be impacted by the range in rates financials broadly, very weak sector today jpmorgan among the biggest decliners in the dow, partially responsible for the dow still being just barely in the red erin, i want to go to you. what's your read on financials in this current environment? especially since we have seen such kind of a pile-in in light of this shift in monetary policy do you think that reverses now >> yeah, i think if you step back and look at the financials, at least on -- even on a one-month basis, they're down 2% well outperforming the rest of the market, certainly we have seen about an 8% decline off the

highs of xlf over the last two weeks or so, but that's really just reversing a really extraordinary period in terms of outperformance year to date. i think going forward from here, the impact is going to be less about the direct exposure certainly to russia or to ukraine, which is pretty de minimis, or even the direct exposure to europep, but i think the bigger impact for financials is going to be the pace of the removal of accommodation for the fed. and i think in large response, the market movement that you have seen in financials over the last few days has largely been driven by the market pricing out some of the more hawkish sentiment with respect to fed tightening coming up and less about the direct exposure from any impact from russia and ukraine so from here, i think that you'll probably likely continue to see the financials underperform over the next couple weeks particularly as this continues to shake out and you continue to see the market price out some of the more hawkish sentiment with

respect to the fed but i do think that there are opportunities amongst financials to start bottom picking for specific names that look attractive >> jason, that's a great point, and mestert today did say these events in ukraine could influence the pace of removal of accommodation. i wonder, do you think the market is trying to take that to the bank if they are, do you think they may be over their skis, especially if we get data out in the morning that's a little hot? >> yeah, so for me, as i look at financials and as erin mentioned, obviously, they have outperformed the market, down only 2% year to date for me, the story has been the spread between the two and tens. obviously, that spread has narrowed and hasn't widened year to date. that really plays into this whole narrative of whether the fed, which i think a lot of folks could agree the fed has been behind the curve, but how are they going to land this plane? how are they going to manage this trapeze act as we move forward in looking at

inflationary reads, cpi numbers, pces that have been really hot so i think it's going to be a tough story going forward, but i do think eventually coming off a really strong year last year, i think eventually the second half of this year, they'll start to move we're a buyer here of financials >> we're going to watch that trade for sure in the next few days meantime, we want to get a check on oil brent and wti did settle at the lows of the day, after hitting $100 a barrel earlier in the session. let's bring in paul sankey from sankey research to talk about the future for the energy complex. paul, great to see you i did notice goldman today, uncertainty remains regarding potential supply disruptions we see clear risk of $125. have your numbers gone up? >> i think we have been surprised by some of the market reaction today it's actually been quite thematic you have seen stoler stocks and wind stocks going up a ton but it's, of course, a very bad

news for europe. the key thing in real terms because there's no interruption in energy supply right now from russia, is the nord stream 2, which wasn't delivering anyway, but it's now going to be much further delayed. so what we're seeing is definitely some tightness and concern around oil and particularly diesel and distillate which really are dependent on low natural gas prices to make a lot of. it's been an interesting day to say the least in terms of how the market has reacted so thematically >> the deed. there's been a lot of discussion today about going back years and looking at what happened to european production and this frog in a pot of water, increasing reliance on russia for energy was there an off ramp somewhere in the years past where they could have make a different decision that would make today's dynamic different? >> oh, yeah. i mean, in my opinion, european energy policy has been a disaster you have been decapitalizing the

fossil fuel industry way too quickly while building a lot of wind and solar obviously particularly wind. wind is a positive we like wind, but you can't just take money out of, for example, shutting down all your nuclear plants and not expect to end up dependent on natural gas by the way, you just ask fd i changed any of my numbers. no, we went from an $80 to $120 range for oil, and this event is a short term shock, hopefully one that won't upset the global economy and ruin what strength and demand we're seeing here for oil, which has been very strong. >> how do you define short term, paul >> short term of intraday trading, for example, but no, in this case, i think, you know, it's a question of how long this military action goes on. obviously, and that's clearly very uncertain but you know, for us, the longest term investors we have are three to five years and the shortest term are three to five minutes. it's a vague area, but i would

say there was an expectation that this ukraine situation would go on for weeks. i think that this action has surprised and shocked everyone it may strangely enough resolve the issue sooner rather than us living with uncertainty, we have actually in some ways based on the way the market has rallied kind of answered some questions here as regards to what the market hates most, which is uncertainty. >> so you believe that the market has largely priced in the geopolitical implications on the energy market. what do you think is the likelihood that alternative energy supplies become available to europe? >> well, i mean, they have already overcapitalized wind, as i mentioned. they need natural gas. the good news for the u.s. is we're about to become the largest natural gas exported in the world. i was highlighting this morning we're also much less dependent on imported oil. now, that's more like 1 million

barrels a day and it could be less if we really needed it to be that's one reason money is flying into the u.s., because we're ctually relatively unaffected by what happens in ukraine. the problem is really for europe, and what you have got here is environmentalists who oppose everything. we call them banana, build absolutely nothing absolutely nowhere, and as you take money out of fossil fuels, you're really unable to add things like transmission lines in germany that you need to connect wind power to the south where the demand, particularly the nuclear power was, it doesn't make sense. it's what we call platitudes over physics we need to get more base load power and that's going to have to be from natural gas if you're not going to do nuclear. >> certainly some difficult questions and difficult tradeoffs against this difficult backdrop thank you, paul sankey, very much for joining us today. >> erin, i want to get one final comment from you before the "closing bell. >> sure. so i think that we really have

to take a step back and really focus on the short term versus the long term. while certainly i think that the ukraine situation will likely lead to volatility over the short term, i don't think that the fundamental picture or the backdrop for equities has materially changed we're still in a late cycle environment. if anything, the last couple weeks have only accelerated that, given higher inflation and potentially a little bit of lower growth and so i think that that really does mean that you need to be focused on portfolio construction and really emphasizing quality in the portfolio rather than really, you know, reaching for these high volatile, high growth stocks that potentially have earnings well in distance into the future so still okay to buy equit es but buy quality wins your equity portfolio. >> erin, it's been an interesting week been suppressed by all of the geopolitical news, but lingering questions about the consumer we have this reopening trade regarding covid, which we have been talking about for several

weeks. we thought we were going to have a chance to enjoy, but there were a lot of micromentions of the consumer by ebay, bed bath, and even travel related names. how do we square some of that conflicting discussion >> great question. with respect to the consumer, you have to bifurcate low end consumer versus high end consumer the high end consumer is still in really good shape positive earnings, real wage growth, positive asset price appreciation their balance sheets are really clean. you are starting to see the removal of the child tax credit, removal of fiscal stimulus start to impact the lower end consumer you have heard that throughout fourth quarter earnings as well. i think focusing on the consumer but really focusing on higher end consumer goods, higher end travel experiences is where you want to place your bets. >> erin browne, appreciate it very much. good to see you. helping us understand quite a day. jason snipe is going to stay with us, as we're a few seconds

here before the close. what a session every now and then, we get these 1,000-point swings today was another one. dow was down 859 at the low. it closes somewhere north of 100 points nasdaq, averting a bear market gold off the session high and the vix after topping 38 falls to near 28 >> welcome to "closing bell. i'm leslie picker. coming up, today's market recovery and how the crisis in europe could play into the fed's next move. plus, small caps making a remarkable comeback along with the broader market we'll speak with a portfolio manager who says the group could be a good place to ride out the volatility >> jason snipe from odyssey capital advisers is with us, and eric johnston joins the conversation gentlemen, we ended the day in

the green, something that i think if you had told me earlier today or even last night, i would have laughed and said that's impossible. jason, starting with you, what got us here? >> so i think it leans back into some of the comments i made earlier today. i think when biden came out and talked about the sanctions and not them being overly hurtful from a sanction perspective and just what they could do for our country, i think technology started to run here. i think obviously the mega cap tech names have held up very well, and obviously, you're seeing some real strength in the cybersecurity names. zscaler, palo alto, crowdstrike, that has carried the market and the momeant nm to the end of the close. it's encouraging news. we'll see how the next couple days and weeks play out. but i think that was the catalyst for the run towards the end of the day >> you know, it's interesting, jason, we have all these analogs

of markets in the past, buy the invasion, but none of them have come with the kind of monetary and fiscal backdrop we have, certainly none have come from the level of quantitative tightening that we now expect. does that make a lot of those analogs invalid in your view >> yeah, that's a great question, carl i always say when you are looking back from an historical perspective, there's always different inputs there, and clearly, this is a very different market than what we saw maybe in the persian gulf war and crimea invasion and other wars we have dealt with over the last few decades. so this is interesting obviously, we have rampant inflation that the fed is going to have a difficult time trying to deal with and manage over the next couple quarters, and making sure that they try and put a lid on inflation but also don't stymie growth. so for me, it's a trapeze act and just making sure you have appropriate barbell strategy going into this market, i think

that's going to be very important going forward. >> eric, i want to ask you about hedging in this current environment because that was a key topic of conversation throughout the day today here at cnbc looking at what the market did today, what would you recommend investors do to protect their portfolios at this point in time >> well, i think at this point in time, we actually think we're going to see a sharp rally from here over the course of the next months and we saw part of that today. we have been negative for the last six, seven weeks since the s&p was around 4700, and now today we actually pivoted and turned tactically bullish. so i think for those that are looking to put hedges on, i would be waiting for higher prices because you're procedure going to get a situation where right now, the vol is still pumped up, and you're going to be able to put on reset hedges and put on hedges at higher prices and lower volatility levels you know, the event, the market

seeing the event around russia/ukraine is now sort of behind us. and although there's a lot more to play out, we now have the answer around what the invasion is going to look like, what the sanctions are going to look like and i think actual impact on the global economy is actually going to be not that material over time so i think this will become something that the market is going to sort of look past over the course of the next week. >> that's going to be interesting, especially given that we do have a powell testimony in the next week, and i wonder whether you think he's going to argue that this does complicate accommodation removal or maybe exacerbates inflationary or stagflationary pressures. does the street have a directional bet on that? >> so right now, the market is pricing in just over 25 bips for march. my view is that it's going to be 25 bips and when he does

testify, he's going to allude to that and i think prior to the ukraine/russia situation, i would have told you that that was likely the case. i think this just adds more sort of fuel to him really wanting to be more methodical and thinking there's. no reason to go 50 bips. there's a cpi report the following week which will clearly be very, very important. but before that, i think the takeaway from his testimony is that we're going to be going 25 and he's going to be methodical. and although this, if anything, this situation does cause sort of more inflation on the margin, i think it will really be a negligible long term effect on inflation. and by the way, my view on inflation is it's going to remain very high for the entire year, and over the course of the year it's going to be a problem. i think talking about right here, right now, this incremental piece of information, it's not going to change the outlook that much right now. >> jason, what does this mean

for the fed's margin of error as you look at what's going on geopolitically, does that change their equation of just getting this wrong in terms of rate hikes? >> that's a great question i think the fed will remain data dependent in this scenario i agree with the guest here. you know, i think the fed, it's a difficult story for them to manage going forward you know, geopolitical issues, obviously, this is a new issue that's come about recently over the last several weeks but i think the fed will really try to maintain their composure here and make sure, because it's all about the velocity of the hikes. we all agree that the fed needs to tighten we need to move to this cycle that makes a lot of sense here, but it's all about the velocity in which they do that. i do think we price in pretty much a 25-basis point hike here in march at this point i think that's what they'll do,

four to five hikes this year we'll see if it's at 100 basis points by july again, i'm really focused on the velocity here. >> eric, i wonder, we haven't had a chance to talk much about macro. i mean, all of the data this morning got completely buried. continuing claims post covid low. we have gdp running at a 7% rate i know it's a little backward looking, but to what degree does that become relevant again if in fact we sort of reset and is live with the current status quo with geopolitics >> i think that will be -- that absolutely will be important and i think the real trick over the course of the next six months is looking at inflation and economic growth. and my more medium term concern is that although we saw economic growth in 2021 in north of 6%, i think that's going to slow down throughout the year. and so the real conundrum and the real issue for equities an a

more medium term perspective is growth is going to be in a down trend, and inflation is going to stay well above target, which is going to require the fed to continue to tighten policy, shrink the balance sheet throughout the year, even while we're seeing an economy slow down and that's something we really haven't seen in the past 10, 15, 20 years where it's really very high inflation that the fed is combatting as opposed to a hot economy. and so this combination could be challenging. so to the extent that stagflation risk is certainly out there, so to the extent that economic growth over the next quarter or two can be strong, i think the market will care about that i just think that's going to be slightly disappointing overall for the market >> jason, what do you make of the risk of stagflation out there? and where would you advise investors to put their money if that's a real risk >> a great question. so i alluded to the barbell strategy earlier

i think you have to be somewhat defensive here i really like health care. health care has dramatically underperformed this year, down about 10%. xlv is down about 10%. i do think as we kind of look at the reopening 2.0, preventative care, elective surgeries will come back. that's a part of the market that you should look at and i also believe that financials can play a role as well obviously, we have talked about the curve flattening to a certain extent, but i believe as we look to the second half of the year, we have more clarity on fed policy and where we're going. i do think we could see more steepening of the curve, and that's another area i would be in >> we're definitely watching for that we could actually use a little steepening at this point guys, everybody stay with us let's get back to kayla tausche for the latest on russia and ukraine. >> the u.s. and europe unveiling coordinated sanctions targeting russian elites, banks, and high-tech imports we first

reported here on cnbc. the financial measures are meant to deter vladimir putin from invading ukraine further, but the invasion continues u.s. defense officials say russian forces are advancing closer to kyiv the u.s. now deploying 7,000 troops that had previously been on standby to germany to reassure nato allies and nato summit to discuss further deployments is happening tomorrow ukraine's health minister says so far, 169 ukrainians have been injured. 57 have died leslie and carl. >> kayla, one interesting report during the course of the day was this report that the president had been offered a menu of choices regarding offensive cyber responses, which jen psaki then knocked down a bit. where do we know how that fits on the menu of options the president will be continuing to consider >> well, we know that the president has alluded more obliquely to trying to destabilize russia's military operations, but hasn't gone so far as to describe exactly how

he's considering doing that or whether he would move forward with any of those options. certainly, jen psaki, the press secretary, said on twitter after a report was published that suggested that the president had been offered several options ranging from essentially putting trains off the tracks and tearing away financing from military operations through electronic means, she said that that report was off the mark, that it was not exactly as the menu of auoptions had been presented and it mischaracterized what was on the table. psaki is briefing right 93 now, i believe, so perhaps she's adding more detail to that if we get t we'll bring it to you. >> thank you eric, do you think the market at this point in time is pricing in what could be the worst case scenario here? >> i don't i think that there's certainly an argument for -- i ultimately

think we're going to go to lower prices than where we are now it's just not going to be in the next month and you know, i think pricing in a sort of worst case scenario, worst case scenario is earnings could turn lower i think very few people think that or are pricing that in right now. but if people towards the back half of this year start to think that the economy is really struggling and that margins can't stay where they are, and you start to price in lower earnings, that's where it becomes really a big problem, because not only will earnings estimates be coming down, but the multiples that the market is putting on those earnings will also come down simultaneously, and that's where you can have a fairly large sell-off, and by the way, this could be happening in combination with the fed that is still tightening because we're still battling inflation so no, by no means is this is worst case scenario at all >> that potential stagflation scenario that you laid out

earlier. thank you, jason and eric, for joining us today >> we're just getting started on the second hour of "closing bell." up next, liz ann sonders of charles schwabber and jason trennert of strategas weigh igon the big market come back and whether thray llonnue llwi ctie. we're back in two.

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with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. so you can be ready for what's next. get started with internet and voice for just $64.99 a month. and ask how to add securityedge™. or, ask how to get up to a $650 prepaid card. major comeback on wall street today the nasdaq was down more than 3% at the lows but finished higher by 3.3%. the dow and s&p also both finishing in the green joining us today, liz ann sonders. great to talk to you i have to start by getting your reaction to today's reversal >> i suppose it's a version of, you know, sell on the rumor, buy on the news. this is not uncommon in this kind of environment. there is a lot of short term money in the market, and it keys off sometimes technical conditions we were oversold in some areas of the market.

it can sometimes key off sentiment conditions and we have seen sentiment really reverse. so i think it was some of that i don't think we're out of the woods in terms of headline risk, either associated with russia/ukraine or the bigger macro force, which is the fed. >> yeah, speaking of the fed, is the argument that just like we saw strategists pull forward their expectations on data, they're now pushing back their expectations on geopolitics? is that too glib >> first, with today's action, we only saw expectations in terms of market pricing move from, you know, seven rate hikes to six or so we did not see a big shift in perspective policy and all of this parlor game of how many rate hikes, there's very little analysis of the balance sheet component of this, not to mention that the fed isn't operating with a predetermined playbook at this point. they have been very clear about

their data dependency, and of course, the data is inclusive of something like russia/ukraine and the fears it has into energy and inflation. i don't think this changes the launch coming in march, but it's not like we knew what the trajectory was likely to be on either rates or the balance sheet. arguably, there's even more uncertainty now, but i don't think it changes the fed's launch point from next month maybe it lessens the chance of 50 versus 25, but i think that's about it >> liz ann, you said that we're not out of the woods yet, implying there's more volatility to come from here. what do you think investors should be doing to protect their portfolios now is it too late to engage in the inflation hedging? >> we're in a decent secular environment for energy, giving how low weighted it became in the s&p. i'm not suggesting we're going

back to the $70s, but back then, it was today's tech, 25% of the s&p, and we could be in a long secular cycle for commodities. that doesn't mean you won't be at the mercy of, you know, that sector in particular getting overbought where i think the leadership has been most consistent for the last several months, really back to the point where the fed started tapering, is quality i think that quality trade, which spans into all sectors in fact, to value lower case in quality have been the outperformers even within sectors that happen to live in the growth indexes so value factors like strong free cash flow, strong balance sheets, pricing power, even hybrid factors like positive earnings revision, that's how investors want to approach this market is look for value, again, lower case v, look for quality, and i

think that will reign supreme in terms of leadership amid all of these wild swings you're seeing intraday and sector shifts that are happening. >> liz ann, we also want to welcome strategas research partners jason trennert joining the conversation good to talk to you as well. i'll ask you what i asked liz ann a moment ago that reversal today, tactically important? does it mean anything over the medium term given the unanswered questions regarding the fed? >> listen, i do think it's meaningful in the intermediate term, but by the same token, i think the overhangs on this market are real and are not going to be going away anytime soon in some ways this makes the fed's job harder and i think it's going to be harder to root out inflation than it might have been a week or two ago so i just caught the last part of what liz ann was saying, and i wholeheartedly agree that i think you want to be with shorter duration equities.

you want to be in things that are trading as a multiple of earnings and cash flows as opposed to things trading as a multiple of sales. i think inflation is headed higher or is at least going to continue to stay high i also think we just don't know what the ten-year treasury yield is going to be until the fed stops buying them. >> so jason f the fed's job is hea harder then, what does it mean in terms of the motential to tip the u.s. economy into a recession in light of all this >> the good news is that i would say the u.s. -- the chance of the u.s. going into recession in the next 12 to 18 months in my opinion is low that's largely because there's an enormous reservoir of savings. labor markets are very tight monetary policy is still accommodative. with the fed still buying securities, which is mystifying to me. i think that's a policy error. but having said all that, it's hard to get a recession when you have those types of conditions

the risk, of course, is that the fed is goaded into overdoing it, because inflation winds up being more systemic, more structural than they thought, and then they have to tighten more than they want to, and it's just fortunately, these are not scalpels, these tools the fed uses they're not as precise as everyone would like them to be they're more like snow shovels or sledge hammers. so it's tough to nuance this >> liz ann, one discussion that happened today was talking about drawdowns in general you mentioned we're not out of the woods, but drawdowns can be measured in severity and duration, and btig went back four months, 2011, five months, 2016, eight months i wonder whether or not you think we need to have a reset about how long we might be in this period. >> well, i guess it also depends on whether you're talking about drawdowns under the surface or drawdowns at the index level even last year, which was seen as a pretty resilient year for

markets, the nasdaq had -- did have a 10% correction, but only one. the average maximum drawdown last year, and this is not including this year, calendar year 2021, for the 3600 and change stocks that are in the nasdaq was negative 43%. so it just happened to be biased down the capitalization spectrum now that we have seen some of the weakness move up, hitting the cap weighted indexes, there is a bit more focus on the drawdown at the index level, but the massive drawdowns have been occurring and not just within these indexes but in the high spec, high valuation segments of the market like the meme stocks, the nonprofitable tech, and spacs, et cetera massive, massive drawndowns that started as long ago as a year. it depends on what exactly you're looking at. the index level, under the surface, which index, to really get a sense of the severity and duration of these drawdowns.

>> jason, speaking of kind of speculative areas of the market or more speculative areas of the market, i want to get your thoughts on crypto we have been hearing crypto is this inflation proof security that hasn't borne out in what we have seen lately with higher inflation, and of course, you have geopolitical tensions frrk the first time at this scale when you have cryptocurrency, which tends to be countriless, this idea that it can be for everybody. what do you make of crypto in this current environment >> yeah, it's a great question and i have maybe a counterculture view on this. i think the recent developments in canada, as well as in russia and ukraine, i think cast a greater shadow over crypto i also feel very strongly that you're going to have a lot more regulation in the united states. i take no pleasure in saying that central bankers and secretaries of treasury, you're not like

giving up seigniorage of their currency, and they don't like things they can't control. so i think you're going to see a lot more regulation, and i think also, especially again, given what just happened in canada, there may be more of a bias towards physical forms of money, which seems like we're going backwards, but good old fashioned cash and gold in my opinion may be, for some people, a little more interesting than crypto and so normally, i would say that virtue follows performance. as one of my colleagues likes to say, and there was a lot of talk about crypto being a replacement for fiat currencies until it hit something like $60,000 then people started coming up with ideas as to why it was their other reasons why it was going up but there's a lot of moving parts here to put it mildly. >> absolutely. well, jason, liz ann, thank you both very much for joining us

today. appreciate it. >> up next, we'll be joined by an expert who advices hedge funds and ask what he's telling clients to do in the face of extreme geopolitical risk. plus, oil settling way off the highs of the day but prices remain sharply elevated. 'll discuss where crude could be heading next when "closing bell" comes back thanks for coming. now when it comes to a financial plan this broker is your man.

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got a news alert on amd. shares moving higher on news the board has approved a new gl 8 billion buyback program. that's in addition to the $4 billion buyback announced in may of t'21. >> amd is down 17% year to date. a critical reversal day and amd announces a jigattic buyback just getting started >> stocks seeing a major

reversal joining us now on how he's advising his hedge fund clients, marco pavic. i know you have been bon top of the geopolitical developments for quite some time now. what are you telling investors to be focused on >> the most important things to really watch is what's happening with ukrainian troops themselves it doesn't seem they met the russians at the border which would suggest perhaps they have withdrawn to the scities trying to draw russia into a messy and complicated affair we need to watch the reaction in russia there have been protests in russia domestically. russian policymakers seem to be equivocating on what they're demanding from ukraine, and all of this is creating a sense that russia has kind of walked into this invasion without having a clear plan of how to execute it and how to deal with a potential, you know, ukrainian

military that's ready to actually face them so i would suspect that a little bit of the market's bounceback is related to that but i wouldn't follow it i think there's still risks and i think the hedges which i like, which are wheat and palladium, still have more room to grow as the situation develops >> given that you don't believe that putin knows exactly how everything will play out, you know, given the retaliator measures from nato and so forth, you know, what do you think his grand ambitions are here if he wasn't anticipating this reaction >> you know, leslie, i don't see how this ends good for president putin or for russia. i don't really see a scenario in which he gets what he wants. and it's not just because it's a complicated intervention it's a very large country with significant military assets, talking about ukraine. it's also that russian history is actually replete with examples of aggressive

geopolitical moves that backfire from the original crimean war in the 19th century the 1917, the revolution, 1980, afghanistan, 1990s, chechnya every time russia is on offense, it loses, and it usually leads to domestic political insecurity and so i actually think that they made a critical error, they overestimated their material constraints that they're facing. and that right now, in the kremlin, there are conversations like, wait, what do we do now? do we go all the way or not? the market seems to be sensing that, maybe sniffing it out. it could just be shorts being covered, it may not be as profound as i'm making it, but i do think russia has made a mistake. >> it's interesting, though. i wonder if you were going to thread it out, if it would be because of resilience in nato or maybe just isolation on a global scale, lack of domestic support, and if it is a lack of domestic support, why would that matter

given his unshakable rule? >> you know, i think we always in the west perceive these regimes as having unshakable rules. but i think it's not as clear as that there are different power structures within russia as well, whether they're oligarchs, whether they're members of the intelligence agencies. i don't think it's as clear as what president putin is trying to project that's why i think there is some equivocation going on right now. >> a lot of russian experts did not expect putin to ultimately invade ukraine despite intelligence warnings that they were planning to do so i saw in the notes that you said that investors should prepare for more frequency of geopolitical conflict. what do you mean by that is that specifically russia-based or broadly across the globe? >> it's broadly across the globe. we're in a multi-polar environment, which is a fancy way of saying no one is in charge the u.s. or anyone else for that matter in those environments, the frequency of conflict will rise. it doesn't necessarily mean

every conflict is necessarily of macro importance if there's anything i would draw from this conflict, it's this profound event where the u.s. treasury yield -- u.s. treasury note, the long dated u.s. treasury note seems to no longer be a geopolitical safe haven that to me is the most promofou message of today the fact u.s. yields have not really fallen tells me that the world is moving away from the bond market. as a safe haven asset for geopolitical risks if we're going to have a higher frequency of geopolitical risks, it is going to be much more difficult to hedge those risks we have to get creative. for example, the wheat call i made several months ago, okay, wheat is going to be important ukraine makes a lot of wheat and exports it there's actually a critical threat to that supply chain. it's not going to be as easy as just buying bonds. it also tells me we're in a profoundly bearish macro context

for bonds in general that they didn't rally on a near third world war event. >> right, no, i think that's a conversation we're going to be having a lot in the near future, whether it be ten-year the safe haven it's been historically or whether inflation takes center stage as a result of that. thank you for breaking it all down for us. >> of course anytime. >> oil prices surging this week, as you know, but they came off the highs of the day following the president's speech in fact, the xle is down for the month. up next, we're going to discuss the next levels to watch for crude when "closing bell" comes right back i call it.... the wheel. ok, this is a miss. it's a fork. i got ten forks right here, baby. a toilet? we're not animals. we go outside like humans. nobody's going to the moon, ever! why not? it's too far! it's far. like i was saying, it's ftx, it's a safe and easy way to get into crypto.

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welcome back if you're just joining us, here's a look at the stunning day on wall street stocks clawed all the way back from major early losses, all three indexes in the green today. the dow closing up 92 points, recovering from about 950 points from their intraday losses the nasdaq, the standout here, up more than 3% in today's session. >> there's been more action after hours. here's a check on some of the big earnings movers that we normally would have talked more

about. coinbase moving lower despite reporting an earnings and revenue beat $1.6 trillion. block also falling after reporting an earnings and revenue beat for the quarter beyond meat gave weak guidance for the year, and etsy soars on an earnings and revenue beat as well it's time for a cnbc news update let's turn to shepard smith. >> hi, carl. thanks from the news on cnbc here's what's happening now 7,000 more u.s. troops are headed to europe as russia mounts the biggest land war in europe since world war ii. the secretary of defense, lloyd austin, today ordered the deployment of an armored brigade to germany the pentagon says the troops are meant to reassure nato allies if vladimir putin turns his attention toward a nato country, the united states will not hesitate to act. >> well, early estimates on casualties in ukraine now coming in the country's minister of health just reported 57 people dead and 169 injured in the fighting and

the shelling four medical workers reportedly killed when russian forces shelled a hospital in the donetsk region ukraine's foreign minister calling that beyond evil tonight, we'll take you inside ukraine as the people there brace for a second straight night of shelling, and we're live in moscow where russian authorities were arresting anti-war protesters by the hundreds comprehensive coverage and analysis on the news right after jim cramer, 7:00 eastern, cnbc leslie, back to you. >> definitely an important night to tune in to your show, as always shep, thank you. >> energy prices on the rise as the crisis in eastern europe unfolds, but crude settles well off its high of the day. brian sullivan joins us with the latest what going on, brian >> look at it this way it's not that oil rose a little bit today. it's that oil fell $7 from its high think about that oil at one point did break above $100 here. $103 in the uk, so it actually

did fall $7 from that peak why? well, a few reasons. i heard you interview marco. there's probably options activity, but oil and russia got off easy today with the white house and with the g7. the sanctions that were made, the g7 including president biden did not directly go after russian oil or russian gas the market was terrified that's what was going to happen, and that's why we had this massive spike overnight and at the open. once we realized that not yet, and it still could happen, guys, but we're not going directly after the oil or gas yet, that oil got off pretty easy. and the reason, of course, don't need to tell you, consumer inflation out of control in the u.s. politically, you could see $6 a gallon gas in california if we sanction russian oil $5 nationwide. i don't know how palatable that's going to be right now so wild day. it felt like two days in one i will say this, the g7 in their communique today saying they're

watching and they're monitoring, so it's possible more action could come, but for today, oil got off relatively easy, and it ended up falling $7 a barrel >> brian, what do you make of the notion that this puts more urgency on an iranian deal and how many dollars would that take off? >> yeah, only two ways that oil is going to slow down its rise in the near term let's be clear oil would be close to this level even without the ukrainian war or conflict. oil was on its way up before this happened. iran, let's say there's a nuclear deal you throw another million barrels back on the market maybe it shaves $3 or $4 a barrel off the price of crude oil. the other way to do it, maybe some kind of coordinating relief from the strategic petroleum reserve. the problem, though, is we announced the release back in november we have been releasing oil since then the latest inventory showed a drawdown from the spr, and i haven't looked at a bit because i was traveling, i was trying to find the inventory data on how much is in the spr, and the

doe's website was down earlier i don't know if it's an accident or if they were trying to obfuscate how much was in there. even if you drained it all, carl, you would probably get $1 or $2 off the price. we're in a tight market, and i guarantee you, one vladimir putin is very aware of how tight this market is and anything he does to rattle the energy market is going to have an outsized effect i will say this. outside of what's going on today, the biden administration, they see blocked new federal leases on certain lanldz because of a louisiana court ruling. some people are saying we need more domestic production kind of went the other way today. didn't get a lot of attention for obvious reasons. but it's out there >> we're going to watch rig counts tomorrow. regardless brian, thanks. brian sullivan >> major averages trading in that big range today following russia's attack, finishing near the best levels of the day small caps also staging a

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exposed to a covid reopening what do you make, or maybe just valuation? >> yeah, i think the small caps had already been really oversold going into this. and i think there's a little bit of, you know, in the case of a negative geopolitical event like this, it's sell the rumor buy the news type of situation but we do think small caps do offer opportunities here we wouldn't indiscriminately buy small caps but we think this is a time for individual stock selection to really go in, use this opportunity to upgrade our portfolios, focusing on cash flow, earnings, companies with hard assets that can really weather through some of the inflationary pressures that we see out there. and we do see them as being a lot less sensitive to geopolitical conditions such as the ukraine/russia situation >> what stocks exactly fit that bill >> well, a couple that we like, we think you could find opportunities in semi-conductors

right now. semi-conductors were one of the strongest areas leading into this sell-off, and we think that they'll be one of the stronger areas among tech coming out. we like a company called silicon motion, which used micro controllers used in the memory market company is growing double digits, trades at 12 times earnings and that's one that we think is a very attractive risk/reward. we also see opportunities in consumer stocks like academy sports and outdoors which is a niche sporting goods retailer that really used the pandemic as a windfall to deleverage their balance sheet. now they can start growing their store base again we like the valuation there. and then the last one i'll mention is commercial metals, which is one of the largest metal recyclers in north america. they're the largest

rebar manufacturer, and they should benefit from all of the infrastructure spending that's going to be coming down the pipe here over the next few years and we really like the valuation there. they trade about five, six times ebitda, pay a dividend, and we think really offer an attractive investment in an inflationary environment. >> thank you for those tips, eric marshall. >> thank you >> up next, we'll get an experts's take on what could happen next in eastern europe and what it could mean for the global economy ck rhtng bell" will beig ba i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this.

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the president announcing those new sanctions on russia amid the conflict. coming up, what could happen ne iukinxtn rae and how to best navigate the geopolitical turbulence when we come back.

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let's bring in matthew thank you very much for being here a lot of moving parts. a lot of developments today. the market clearly reacting quickly and swiftly to many of them at this juncture, what do you think is the potential for escalation in ukraine versus deescalation in ukraine? >> i think things are going to continue to get worse for the foreseeable future and i think it's doubtful we're going to see a lot of major escalation beyond say the next several days. it's clear that russia is determined to do a very kind of aggressive military action they're moving on kyiv and the idea is to eventually take that city so it seems like there is a really historic, heroic fight by the ukrainians going on and this is set to continue for the foreseeable future >> if it does continue, what does that mean for the sanctions on russia? >> i think the biden administration, they've put

extremely tough sanctions on russia for doing this, but i think they've still left a few cards in their hand. they went after some of russia's biggest banks. but they could go after more of those even harder. so really only one russian bank kind of got the full slate of the worst sanctions and essentially, those measures could be applied to other banks if russia continues to move on kyiv >> matthew, do you think putin was counting on more cover from the likes of china or czech leaders, for example, whose rhetoric has been maybe surprisingly critical of their move >> yeah, i think the czech leader was certainly surprised for putin. i think that putin expected a little bit more hesitancy from certain central european leaders. i think intereuropean unity has really surprised putin in this sense. regarding china, that's a different story. china for its own reasons really feels like it needs to not show daylight between itself and

putin so their hand is essentially forced in this space. i don't think we're going to see much more daylight from china. >> do you think this conflict expands beyond ukraine >> no, i don't think it does i think the biden administration has set up certain parameters to prevent that from happening but i think it's clear that you know, even what's going on right now is going to have a lot of implications for markets we're talking about ukraine and russia, two major commodity producing countries. everything from agriculture to minerals so it's clear as this goes on and on, things are only going to get worse are regards to that. an important point here, the russians are going to try to probably set a pro russian puppet government in ukraine that's not going to receive a lot of international recognition. and it's a potential danger here if that government is not recognized widely, it could be hard for that ukrainian government to sell its commodities and for them to reach the world market >> there's a couple of different schools of thought right now

one is that russia and putin have prepared for this movement, given their reserves, the way they've sort of clollected currencies and gold. the other is that somehow at this point given the solidarity out of nato, he's improvising. which is more true. >> i think it's both he had an idea of what he was getting into a long time ago, but he's holding out hope the ukrainians or the west will call him up to strike a deal, but i'm i'm not necessarily sure that's going to happen. but it's clear that the russians, they want to do this quickly, but they're trying to keep diplomatic channels annd hope something like that could happen >> given if things are, do come to fruition in the way you've laid out, if there is a puppet government that isn't effective in exports commodities

elsewhere, doesn't that create some sort of leverage on the russians to not do that? >> yeah. that's kind of the issue they know that this government that they would try to set up in eastern ukraine or in most of ukraine, would be very economically unviable. so that's one of the things that's pushing the russians against this idea of occupying large pieces of ukraine. on the other hand, they made it clear they want a regime change. so i think that they're going for regime change, but they could feel this out and if things start to look bad in their own economy, they might pull the plug and say maybe this is not worth the cost we're going to incur >> fascinating we'll have to wait and see what that brings. matthew, thank you for that. talking about some of the ramifications of ukraine going longer term. as for some of the fascinating market stats today, nasdaq at the high was up 3.4% the low was down 3.4%.

biggest swing since march of 2020 >> when you look at the st statistics for the market move, some are chilling. some back to 2,000 i don't know what that says about the market right now >> and we're going to graduate from these concerns to more fed centric concerns as we get closer to powell next week, obviously. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. >> this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. tonight's lineup, guy, tim, karen, pete najarian tonight on fast, we are following all the late breaking developments out of ukraine. investors on edge, but stocks staging a massive comeback today. plus, the invasion putting the fed front and center will poll icymakers rethink pla for aggressive rate hikes? richar