announcing sanctions targeting the russian finances again tough. a live report from europe is straight ahead. in corporate news. s.e.c. probing the trading by elon musk and his cowboy hat wearing brother. it is friday, february 25th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm alyn b rebecca quick with j kernen and andrew ross sorkin. you have s&p futures off 28 and the nasdaq down 65 of course, what we are really

paying attention to is what we saw yesterday. the turning turn around after session lows the nasdaq down by nearly 3.5% it did manage to close with the gain of more than 3% it was a gain of 3.3%. you are talking about a big swing from the down to the up. also watching what was happening with large cap i.t. stocks they were leading that move higher it wasn't just technology. dow and s&p staging a comeback. s&p finished up 1 app.5%. the dow closed in positive territory. again, this was something that was really something to watch. it was late in the session where things continued to climb and push higher every second as we he ticked to the closing bell. the treasury market this morning. the yield is 1.96%

the two-year is up 1.5%. if you are watching oil prices, that is another thing to watch you were talking about oil prices under $100 a barrel from wti. $104 for brent this morning, wti is $92.82. the stocks closed higher there are gold prices which have climbed a bit as well. as we he saw with ukraine. gold is down to $1,913 an ounce. and then bitcoin bitcoin yesterday was down as crypto was across the board. cryptocurrency this morning is sitting at $38,584. >> a big comeback.

it behaves like a nasdaq stock you can have worse characteristics. the greatest stocks we have seen with faang and everything else pretty good to be a nasdaq stock. >> depending when you get in if you got in meta, it's not great lately >> you know what no >> it matched it's 2011 high bitcoin is up 150,000% >> if i tell you that i'm selling you gold, but i'm actually selling you a nasdaq stock -- >> depends on who you are talking to >> right no, no is it digital gold is it a digital currency i'm saying it is marketed as something that it's not. >> i'm saying you can say it is better than utility stock.

nobody is buying that. it's a dow dog that doesn't move for five years the nasdaq has been very, very good to me not to me. an old expression. right? it could be worse. like we noted, it is headed the other way. nasdaq down 18 >> actually closed yesterday 16% from the all-time high we opened in bear market territory and closed up. >> i thought the s&p was headed for 15 >> i like the cash flows of the faang stocks i like the cash flow off the faang stock. if this is a faang stock with no cash flow, which is the better bet? >> shares down 47? >> they were down. they were all triple digit stocks now half of them are $300. the last five years. >> it is the price point. >> exactly

look at netflix. we used to argue at $80. disney >> let's talk geopolitics. let's get the latest out of ukraine as russian forces continue to advance on kyiv. explosions rocking the capital before dawn today. the president of ukraine saying he was the number one target of putin's invasion president biden set to meet with nato leaders today the white house imposing a new wave of sanctions on russia and the multinationals it stopped short of cutting off moscow from the s.w.i.f.t. payment system we have steve sedgwick with the latest from poland steve. >> reporter: andrew, you hit upon the complexity of the situation in your introduction you talked about sanctions and s.w.i.f.t. you talked about the russian

moves into the northern suburbs of kyiv. you talked about the nato reaction this is a stunninglyplicated story on multiple leavels in the fog of war, the uk defense secretary saying the russians in the first 24 hours failed to achieve the objectives we hear that they are making advances in kharkiv and donbas region and other areas like northern kyiv and surrounding the airports as well bombing aggressively again, we are hearing a lot of contradictory reports. we heard from president zelenskyy. he is saying he is assassination target number one and his family is target number two he i mplores his nation to carr on fighting. on the nato level, poland could

become the absolute most pivotal country in the nato alliance going forward. it is on the so-called eastern flank. 332-mile border with ukraine it is all of a sudden become an important player with nato pouring more military into the region just for the u.s., the air bases sent airships and we know the 82nd airborne is here as part of the over 9,000 troop presence already in poland as well. poland is one of the biggest spenders in nato the biggest in eastern europe and second only to russia as well the only reason we're in poland because it shares a long border. we will see the tens of thousands and possibly millions of refugees coming from ukraine

into poland, this will be one of the transit routes out from the western city with the mindset and geography in ukraine into the area where the u.s. is supporting the polish authorities as the flight of refugee ares as fighting contin. s.w.i.f.t. is seen as the ultimate option that president biden and the west can impose upon the russians as well. they are loathe to do that for a load of reasons. one reason is the western countries cannot pay russians for gas and oil with the s.w.i.f.t. system and that would delay the oil and gas which could cripple germany which has a huge amount of energy, 30% to 40% of gas coming from the russian state. if you push the option on s.w.i.f.t., does that mean the russians push on energy which could cripple the large european

economy. that is a complicated story on so many levels, andrew >> steve, if i'm wrong to believe if you can't sanction and use the s.w.i.f.t. system and can't sanction when it comes to oil because of the leverage the russians have over europe at the moment and frankly the rest of the world, you can't do much. >> reporter: you can, actually you can take out the individual financial institutions that is where the u.s. president and others in the west have gone although you have not excluded them from the millions of transactions going on, between 11,000 transactions globally on a daily basis. you are spare bank will bar you from dollar transactions we will bar you and take you out of the international markets and freeze you out you can do a lot to stop ru russians from trading money on

the international basis. the other problem with s.w.i.f.t. and i know you looked at this. for years, how many times have you talked about countries in the middle east not wanting to use dollars or brent as a benchmark because they feel they are beheld to the u.s. financial systems. that is red hearrring after red herring. if you barred the russians from s.w.i.f.t., a difficult option, for the west, the chinese build up their own financial system with the russian support and ally support which diminishes the role of the dollar in the financial system which is what the west doesn't want to see. >> i was glad you went there that is the issue that a lot of folks worry about in what this means in connecting the dots to china. steve, thank you i appreciate it. >> andrew, look, sitting with the situation and knowing what

is what's happening with s.w.i.f.t. and the u.s. was not saying much. biden did not say much yesterday. canada said let's use s.w.i.f.t. boris johnson said let's use it. this is the problem. if we are not willing to take risk or pain, what are we willing to do? those are the questions thrown at president biden when he had the press conference. >> how about the difference between leading a country in the west and these gentlemen and ladies in ukraine? i watched the interview yesterday as the foreign minister had been in the united states and talking to the biden administration he is heading back to kyiv he was interviewed last night. you are probably number two on the list of who they will put on trial, whatever that means, and the interviewer asked him. how do you feel about going back

into the jaws of it? zelenskyy is number one. think of these guys. they said the same thing i have soldiers asking to on the frontlines risking their lives and i have to be for my country. this is hitting me this is serious and really not great. >> on shep smith, they were playing comments from george h.w. bush from 1980 and then ronald reagan. saying if we believe them, we are neglecting our past and putting our future at risk and neglecting history of what happened time and time again. >> we have seen guys flee. remember in the middle eastern countries. suddenly he was -- i don't know where the hell he was. they leave if they are pretty sure the regime is going down, these guys are going back into it for the love of their country. there is a lot of nationalism in

ukraine. >> very difficult situation. >> it is coming up, what investors should know about yesterday's nasdaq comeback and what it could tell us for stocks next. before we head to break, the biggest s&p 500 winners and losers by the end of the session, who knows? stay tuned you are watching"squawk box" from the relative safety of times square nasdaq's market site not us >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc few stocks to watch on the move. etsy shares taking off after better than expected quarterly results. the company continues to benefit from ecommerce spending. we will talk to the ceo at 7:40 this morning beyond meat shares dropping. company posting a wider loss and declining revenue and weak sales outlook. we are watching shares of coin base this morning. the platform performingwith

better than expected earnings. total trading volume would be lower this quarter than q4 interesting note eric adams signed up for the payroll program. and deal news. used car company bought by carvana for $2.2 billion all cash deal. the broader market staging a recovery from massive declines we want to look at the nasdaq intraday swing nearly 7% from peak to draw. the first time since november of 2008 during the financial crisis that the nasdaq erased a 3% decline and ended up 3%. it was a decline of 3.5% and ended up 3.3%. joining us is jim paulson and stephanie link portfolio management at h

hightower adviser and cnbc contributor. jim, you said something i think is important it is difficult to make a call when you have seen the volatility in the markets at this point you think we are near the bottom of things than the top on this you think we have gotten through what will happen with the correction >> i do. that's my bet. i'm not saying it will not be volatile for a few more weeks. i think investors should think beyond the next six weeks and think forward to the next six months becky, i think we have been in correction for almost a year if you own small cap and russell 2000 stocks, it is the same level day as the start of january of last year the same thing for international stocks the s&p 500 has been flat since may. everything has been watched. small cap, large cap, growth everything has gone through the

vix index with three trips above 35 intraday since thanksgiving mostly above 25 since that period calls through the roof aaia with bulls minus 20 on the full week average. all those are signals that sentiment is washed out badly. there is fear. at the same time, we have gone done a lot removing of leadership all of this is happening while fundamentals and corporate earnings and economic growth continue to drive north. it doesn't look like that, but the crisis, now will bring that down i think it is time to start picking away and think about buying for where you want to be in 6 to 12 months. >> stephanie, you were doing that yesterday

what were you buying >> good morning. i've owned facebook for a while. it has been painful. down 38% trading 14 times earnings. i thought that was due for a bounce johnson & johnson, it is never cheap. it is blue chip with a great balance sheet. i like the spin. now trades at 15 times earnings. almost at 3% dividend yield. broadcomm. i'm under weight it is down 13% trades at 17 times earnings. the end mark is the exciting par mark of technology i like the trends there. >> the thesis yesterday was maybe the fed would be taking 50

basis points off the table that is what muhammad said yesterday. stephanie, you are not as convinced of that? >> i'm not you did see yesterday in the action with the total reversal of everything that did not work year to date it is because people thought the fed would not be as aggressive i never thought they he would do 50 basis points the first go around they have to do at least four to get back to normal policy. they are also behind the curve when you look at the inflation stats. looking at services and goods and inflation at 13% all of these things have to act and probably act tighter than expected they will do four, i think, and then look at the data. the data will continue to be high inflation and little better growth >> jim, that has to be the

boogie man for the stock market. watching to see what happens with inflation by the way, we watched commodity prices rise again because of ukraine. how much pressure does that put on the fed what does that mean if the fed is aggressive and what does it mean for equity markets? >> becky, the one thing to remember is the fed raises rates in every recovery. every successful recovery, they raise rates. we go through this every time. the process starts and we have the correction which is what we have done the last year. same in '83 and '84 and '93 and '94 and '11. the market has to figure it out. the vetting has interest rate hikes and far more aggressive and higher than what i think will happen here over the next

one or two years i think inflation is a problem no doubt i agree with stephanie the fed has to get in the game and start raising rates. i'm comforted by the fact there has been a lot more tightening of policy than done by the fed or the treasury. real money supply is slowed from last march at 25% year on year to 6% right now. the deficit and gdp was 8% in march. now 9.5% maybe they have not done anything yet, but a lot of fiscal tightening and the yield curve. the dollar is up with a one-year lag which is the window coming up here in april and may and june that will start to not only slow economic growth, but inflation pressure as well that will turn out better than feared for all of the calls for the hikes the fed will make. it may turn out not as

aggressive as that. >> stephanie, the futures are indicated down this morning. what do you do >> i think we're not out of the woods, becky it goes back to what will the fed do what is inflation and does it ever come down i think it will come down. especially given the supply chain problems they will get fixed eventually back to inflation and wages and rents are more sticky. that is the piece i worry about more we are not out of the woods and the headlines of the ukraine i think on ukraine, if you look at the last geopolitical conflicts, on average, a month later, a total average return of 5% over the year, it has been 9%. we have to take ukraine and put it in one bucket it is is worrisome for sure.

in the short-term, you have to deal with the volatility you have to look at companies like yesterday with the next area about the consumer with the commodity prices i'm looking at target which is down so much it sis a quality company they have yet to report. walmart is more resilient which is next to report. i still believe in them. they got walloped this year. i think expedia or hilton are the areas i look i will pick my spots on theducte >> stephanie, thank you. >> they are not focused on the sleeper leader here which is international. the markets yesterday fell 4%. they are out performing the s&p

500. >> you are not talking about the russian market which is down >> out performing year to date i would look at that i don't think you hear people talking about it i think i would look at that i would buy china. that may be the sleeper for the year. >> jim and stephanie, thank you both coming up, s.e.c. probing trading by elon musk as well as his brother. sl'lltell you why and what the tea ceo is saying about the whole thing when "squawk box" comes right back >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist wealth. where meaningful relationships matter most.

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time for today's executive edge du jour the s.e.c. is probing whether stock sales by elon musk and his brother kimbel violated rules. kimbel musk sold $108 million of tesla shares the headline is it's good to be elon musk's brother. elon tweeted a poll asking followers whether or not he should unload 10% of the stake in the company tesla stock dropped sharply following the poll in comments to the ftc, elon said his brother was not aware he was conducting the poll twitter lawyers knew it.

my brother did not know, but i told the lawyerlawyers >> he has to tell the lawyers. >> i guess it is not easy to be elon's brother $108 million makes it okay to be in the shadow? >> i'll sign up for that >> it is hard to be some people's siblings. >> that is the case. there is always sibling rivalry. we all love each other >> you think they don't talk to each other >> i think they do >> do you talk about insider trading? obviously, it looks bad. you have to prove it before you say it you have to know it happened before >> that is what the s.e.c. is looking into >> exactly. >> that's what they're doing >> they are not saying it. they are investigating it. >> we're saying it >> for us to say it. we have to see what happens with the s.e.c. investigation >> right it's fine for the s.e.c. to

investigate. >> correct coming up, the sanctions debate in washington as russia advances on kyiv stay tuned yoaru e watching ""squawk box" o cnbc >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business keeping your business connected. our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

now to the latest from ukraine as russian forces continue to advance on kyiv. explosions rocked the capital before dawn today. president biden is set to meet with fellow nato leaders today virtually. the white house imposed sanctions on russia, but stopped short of cutting moscow off from the s.w.i.f.t. payment system. ylan mui has the latest from washington >> reporter: becky, congress is united, but the parties are diffivided over the rising prics at home. republicans are calling on the biden administration to pump up domestic production and expedite exports to europe. they argue that would strike a blow at the key sector of the

russian economy and ease pain for american consumers >> i'm in all of the above energy type guy. i believe in wind and solar and hydrogen and nuclear we cannot beat back our enemies in the world without fossil fuels. >> reporter: specifically, republicans see thisas an opening to restart the keystone pipeline and ending restrictions for oil and gas companies and cutting red tape for exports democrats are reluctant. the sanctions specifically exempt oil and gas payments to limit market disruption. lawmakers are worried about back sliding on climate change. >> i don't think the response to putin making war on ukraine to be the dismantling of the protections against climate change it should prompt a wholesale effort to wean europe off

russian oil and gas so russia can no longer use that as leverage against europe. >> reporter: now releasing oil from the reserve is one option that democrats could support president biden said yesterday he wants to limit the pain at the pump, but didn't say how he did warn oil and gas companies should not exploit this moment by hiking prices, joe. >> thank you, ylan stay tuned for a look at what congress will do to shore up let's bring in heidi heitkamp. founding board member and now a cnbc contributor north dakota is a big energy producer heidi we will temper your comments with that in mind. judd gray, we setoff that discussion yesterday start off by letting both of you

know it was amusing -- i don't know what it is i thought it was from the onion. it wasn't. president biden's private jet setting czar, john kerry, excoriated for urging putin not to let his war with ukraine distract him from climate change i tweeted that judd, i honestly thought it might be babylon b, it wasn't. that is taking it to the extreme. that is the mentality of the left on this issue >> yes, it is. it has been for a while. basically, you have the western elitist political group running our policy who believe political correctness is the way you address the issue of energy. as a result, it is the send in the windmills policy it is undermining one of the

most significant paradigm shifts in the last 20 years which is the fact that the united states became energy independent and producing enough gas and oil so we could export it and we were no longer dependent on the middle east and that gave us flexibility in the middle east that we did not have before. obviously, the russians run by an autocratic system so, that has been undermined by this national policy -- international policy involving europe of essentially saying we will dry up the capital to those people who produce energy and gas and oil. you see the sovereign funds. you see funds like blackrock and you see our own president's party trying to make it very, very difficult to get the capital you need to do a very capital intensive business to produce oil and gas. >> ironically, the same people

urging and cheering on the biden administration to leave the oil in the ground are now saying whoa he didn't do that. it was trump it was the last year the rigs went down and the free market did it. a clever or clumsy bit it was the pandemic which put rigs down and demand went to zero what do they want? do they want to leave the oil in the ground or help with the energy needs, judd >> if you are running a major company in the united states today or internationally and the company has involvement in oil and gas. it doesn't have to produce it, but make it better refine it. you will find it difficult to get capital for investment from the politically correct individuals who run the funds and now running the american government >> funds versus the government

that's part of the problem. >> both. you've got norwegian finished. the most sovereign fund in the world will not invest in anything with a cintilla of a cent this is a cut off your nose despite your face energy policy. it is having an implication. the implication is it empowers the autocrats who are dictators like putin and iran. >> heidi, not only did it spur putin on because he also -- it also funds his activities at $100 a barrel. >> we're buying $200 million of oil from russia this year so far. >> he can blackmail europe, too, because of this. it spawned him to do it. now they are handcuffed by inability to provide for their own energy, right? >> you can't trust -- face it.

they wrapped around their own wheel of political correctness to where they can't do anything. we're a capitalist nation. i'm sorry, heidi i'm sure you have thoughts here. i'm dominating >> well, as my friends at the podium know, i have long been advocate for exporting american energy, fossil fuel energy, to shore up and support energy security in europe the chickens are coming home to roost. we absolutely need to continue the policy of exports crude oil out of our country something i pushed hard for and was successful in getting done when i was a senator we also need to expedite lng terminals not just to the west, but to the east. i think we've got to start educating people on the need to balance all of these policies

with energy security in this country. you know, i tell me friends on the left if you want certainty in climate policy, you have to marry them with energy security if you don't do that, you won't have certainty and you won't get what you want. you will delay because you have gone to the extreme. we are seeing this now with the policies i don't know what john kerry said we will not solve this problem with putin and energy if we he do not create some energy security from europe i think the former governor is right. i think the former senator is right. we need to have realistic investment policies. not just for the source of energy, because we know where the energy is. our big challenge is transmission of energy we can't get from a to b because we can't site a pipeline to

bring gas from the northeast to eliminate oil burning facilities we have to have an energy security policy to balance the interests. we have to be energy agnostic in terms of the fuel source we know because of the work on carbon capture, natural gas can be a zero sum emitter. you can't get them there if you are cutting off their investment to do that kind of development so, you know, right now, if you are in congress, you are worried about hacking. you are worried about the security of the energy grid. yes, we need to deal with all of that this is a critical reminder that we have got to have energy security as part of our climate policy >> judd, when joe read your email yesterday and maybe i didn't understand it or it was just described differently i agree with you as you are speaking now about the policy and approach that europe is

taking there is no question that there is an issue that clearly has now reared its ugly head having said that, i don't think it applies, per se, to at least where we are in the united states when it comes to energy policy so, the way your email originally read as something described as happening here. what is happening here is different. it is to the degree -- we are exporting. there is a free market esg going on we can discuss if that is a good thing or a bad thing some argue what should really happen is this should accelerate clean energy this should accelerate investment in other forms of clean energy including nuclear. that's the truth that is an up npopular thing to talk about those are the things that should come of this, no >> the simple fact is that our

policy right now in this country is to try to dry up and choke off the capital which is going to flow -- which should be flowing to energy production companies and to the people who use that energy and develop uses for that energy. you've got ferck coming out of the series of proposals to end pipelines period that is what heidi was saying we need badly you have almost all of your major, major good funds saying no, you can't put money in capital investment into companies with a significant -- >> judd, that's the -- judd, that's the free market >> here's the wall street doing this because -- hold on. blackrock is not doing this

because a new law has been created. >> here is "the wall street journal. the social cost of capital biden administration wants it $51 per ton. it was previously 7 dollars. here is a-2 in "the journal. every release for new drilling has to take into account six or seven times the cost of carbon it is keystone it is one thing after another. what do you mean it is not coming from the biden administration it is regulation after regulation that caused this. that's total crap. >> i think the esg movement. >> you think he is writing these letters for a decade >> blackrock to back it up >> who is writing these letters for a decade because he is instructed by the government to do this? no >> it's a free market. >> the market is perverted by

government policy just as joe said eloquently a second ago the simple fact is you cannot have a market where you have industrial policy determining and running. >> wait a minute >> this is a three-element -- there is the united states, there is russia and there is china. china is probably more important to us on this confrontation than russia russia's a third world country with a first world military. china is a 1.4 billion people run by autocracy where they go with ukraine is a critical issue sanction never control the actions of dictators it did not in cuba or iran and

it will not in russia. what will control actions is to fundamentally undermine the economy and the way you do that is for us to produce so much gas and oil that we are replace russia as a force in the world as economic energy production. >> i know you don't know said. well, when you've got the climate czar of the administration focusing on the cost of the emissions when a country is being invaded and people are dying and civilians are dying and that's his priority is that we can't let putin be distracted from his fight against climate change, you don't think this is coming from the highest levels of government >> i think it's a terrible misstatement, and it should never have been said right now if you're in kyiv and if you're basically a ukrainian you don't know whether to stay or leave this is a crisis we've got to get politics out of this crisis, but we've got to remember what we're learning is we don't have energy security in

europe that is driven a little bit by european policy shutting down their nuclear capacity >> a lot >> and so what we've got to do is we've got to balance all of this and when we fight one against the other we aren't going to get meaningful long-term policy. >> judge, doia remember -- i remember when our energy production soared during the obama administration you remember when president obama said you know who you have to thank for that, thank me. and it was totally from franking, and that was in spite of everything that that administration did for eight years, and now we're back up the same suit at this point. >> and of course franking is being aggressively limited by the policy of our federal government through va and other energy people. plus, you've got to remember the attack on franking which has occurred the disinformation about the effects of fracking -- >> governor, there's no one

stopping fracking in north dakota there's no one stopping fracking in texas >> new york state you're not allowed to do it >> but it's not federal government it's new york state. >> they're not the big players of this, and we are not back to where we were before fracking started. we have energy security in this country. we have -- >> we got oil from russia. >> what are you talking about? >> how much are we importing from russia? we're still importing. >> we're exporting, too. >> can't leave it in the ground, sorry. >> and it is a national security issue, heidi and right and this is something we need a policy on. defense secretary austin is talking about this right now we need a defense policy on this or a national security policy that looks on this

>> north dakota, real good that's the oil producer. south dakota is like agriculture. thanks, judd you're maple syrup all right, see you later thank you. we'll be right back. ♪♪ care. it has the power to change the way we see things. ♪♪ it inspires us to go further. ♪♪ it has our back. and goes out of its way to help. ♪♪ when you start with care, you get a different kind of bank. truist. born to care. alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars?

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welcome back to "squawk box. bitcoin once thought to be an asset similar to gold. however, during russia's invasion of ukraine we've seen these two assets take two very different paths. anthony, good morning to you we're always trying to make sense of what bitcoin is supposed to be we've been told it's a currency. we've been told it's digital gold some people think it's a religion some people think it's a nasdaq stock. what do you think it really is >> yeah, thanks again for having me i think that ultimately bitcoin serves as different things to

different people if you look at money in general money is religion, you have to put confidence in the item you're willing to exchange for goods and services so i think that's true across a lot of different assets. when you start to look at the russia-ukraine situation what's fascinating to me on the news of the invasion gold moved up slightly and bitcoin wentdown. but since about 5:30 on thursday morning bitcoin is up 10% and gold is actually down half a percent. i think we've got to be careful on not judging these assets based on a couple of hours but i do think that prevailing narrative of bitcoin being a digital gold especially when we see sanctions not only to the united states to russia but we see china, canada sanctionings their own citizens i think this is going to serve as one of the solutions as the

world -- >> and look, you know my job is to be the professional skeptic and play devil's advocate here but if we're laying a gold chart over a bitcoin chart, what we should do is lay a nasdaq chart over a bitcoin chart because as bitcoin went up even in the past day you saw the markets also return doesn't it suggest here we have a remarkably speculative asset >> yeah, i think you've got to look at a couple different things pre maybe end of 2020 it was definitely retail. and they treat bitcoin as an asset. starting end of 2020 when we saw a lot of institutions start to come in, those folks look at bitcoin as the riskiest asset in their portfolio. they're going to sell the asset. those retail investors continue to just dollar cost metrics and pull the asset it's still a pretty liquidacy et the other cop ponent i think is

really important when we look at price at the end of 2021 bitcoin was off 15%. they end booking their profits they take their fee. i think you'll see some selling for taxes, et cetera, but then we're up again just given it had gone up so much compared to other aselgts in thestock market, et cetera. >> when you look at holders and their base price meaning when people got in on average, you look at where we are now we're at $38,000 i should say, what's the basis for the average investor in bitcoin right now? >> yeah, so there's something called realize price which looks at at the last time bitcoin traded hands and you can kind of get to a base holder price. one way to do it and what that's sitting at right

now is around mid-2000s, so most people are in profit and what we're seeing are the people not in profit tend to be the short-term holders a holder of an asset they believe is their reserve currency it's the traders, the short-term holders, the kind of institutional traders they're the ones if they're selling they're selling at a loss. and i think a lot of that is kind of behind us. >> tell us what do you think the up side is at this point what do you think the down side is, though, in terms of range? >> yeah, so, from a price standpoint nobody knows. i think the bigger question right now is just what the is united states going to with bitcoin. you start to see more and more politicians talking about it and i think one of the pieces we have to start talking about is the united states needs to embrace bitcoin. it's now a national security issue. on the off chance that the u.s. dollar ends up not being a

global reserve currency used by every country in the world the next best option is for the united states to be the biggest player and largest holder of a decentralized currency no one controls and right now the united states doesn't have a kind of single strategy here. we now have about 30% of cash rate in the u.s., but i think we needto get very serious about what is our bitcoin strategy as a nation state, how are we going to be a leader here? it's about censorship resistance, free speech, self-sovereignty and individual rights i think the u.s. should play a bigger role in 2024. >> a conversation we hope to have you with you especially as we talk about the sanctions and therefore the connection to china. appreciate it again. it is just after 7:00 on the east coast, and you are watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin.

we do have a big line-up coming in the next two hours as well. rocket company ceo, plus global markets and what's next for europe >> meantime let's get to dom chu who's looking at this morning's premarket movers >>etsy up big. profits and revenues both better than estimates etsy also reported more active buyers on its platform than analysts were expecting. a projection fell largely below estimates. then you've got meat shares down roughly 20% of premarket volume. the maker reported a larger than expected usz loss and revenues less than forecast as well

hurt by covid related supply chain and distribution of other factors. it expects full-year revenues to grow between 21% and 33% over last year, but that was still below forecast and we'll end with a check on some of the biggest defense contractors in america given the ongoing russian invasion of ukraine now in its second day. you can see general dynamics up about two thirds of 1% also seeing bigger gains in the premarket trade as well, and boeing shares down by about one quarter of 1%. meantime want to get to the latest on russia's invasion of ukraine. want to get to d.c. where kayla taushe joins us. >> reporter: air strikes intensified overnight getting closer to cities with russian forces moving quickly toward the capital of kyiv and u.s. officials convinced they will try to overtake ukraine's government there and possibly

soon nbc's matt bradley on the ground said bombings are getting so close you can hear car alarms going off there. in an appearance wearing military sweats president volodymyr zelenskyy that russia is targeting him and his family and saying that ukraine has asked for nato backup but is fighting alone zelenskyy again this morning with tweets taking aim at italy's leader for the scheduled call the two missed earlier today. meanwhile stepping up deterrence efforts with the white house stepping up sanctions with elites, valuable tech imports and european officials will be detailing their sanctions which include russia's oil that will happen today but secretary of state antony blinken speaking to nbc's lester holt said president putin remains etermined. >> we made every possible effort

to deter them, to dissuade him from taking this course. this is much bigger than nato. this is all about trying to get nato back into his orbit, to reconstitute if he could something approximating the soviet empire. >> pentagon officials told lawmakers providing support in the form of military equipment has become more difficult as the conflict worsens the u.s. is deploying 7,000 troops to germany bringing the total footprint the u.s. has deployed to europe over the years to around 90,000 according to officials just this morning president zelenskyy has again called on president putin to sit down and negotiate, and we are also getting some headlines out of beijing, andrew, that china is also calling on diplomatic efforts to resume. we'll see what happens next. andrew, back to you. >> kayla in washington this morning. thank you. when we come back dick parsons is going to injo us to

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russia's attack on ukraine this week is causing some to

rethink the fed's path on rates and such in an environment given the economic implications. i know you are -- i think it's canceled now that movie "airplane," remember, steve leastman, but i guess i picked a bad day to stop smoking. i mean, how many different reasons can the fed -- there's a multiple of reasons why not to do rate increases. this is just a another one i think, maybe a good one. >> right so i'm still cogitating on this issue of rate hikes being similar to amphetamines, but not crazy, not crazy i'll work on it, joe but heres -- let me just tell you what's going on and we can talk about the analogy on the backside of this what's happening is fed officials are going to continue to call for ret hikes at the upcoming march meeting, and they are debating whether to go 25 or 50 to start. so that's where the debate is.

governor chris whauler yesterday saying he favors a 50-point base increase saying, quote, if inflation and jobs reports indicate the economy is still running exceedingly hot a strong case can be made for a 50 base point rate hike in march but not all favor a 50-basis point rate hike, which the fed president saying i don't think you're going to see much change in the underlying logic that rates need to rise the fed president said my personal view is 25 is right the fed president mary daily she wants to do four hikes similar to boston from atlanta saying had would be my preference with the possibility of greater inflation from higher fuel prices, which is a key concern but the u.s.-russia economic question not very consequential. russia holds a very small amount

of u.s. treasuries u.s. banks likely have limited exposure russia is a major supplier of oil and other commodities. the fed is going to be watching closely to gauge whether high oil prices press prices abroad i if it leads to more inflation and more potential down sides. got to watch from europe which has a connection to both russia and ukraine. joe? >> the markets yesterday all day long, steve, we talked about the knee jerk uncertainty reaction and whether if you connect the dots you can get to stagflation or a global slow down from the action, and then it makes real sense why you would see some trepidation in the world i think if china made their move then we'd be really revisiting the fed. i don't know how you perceive with all the planned hikes >> right

you know, it's interesting, joe, you bring that up. because really the issue is how do you get to lower consumer demand from this war and i apologize, folks, what's happening in ukraine is a tragedy and human tragedy. i'm simply talking about this in clinical economic terms. i'm sorry about that but you don't really get, joe, as you suggest from russia and ukraine it lower consumer demand in and of itself you might have higher oil prices compress consumer demand elsewhere for higher oil prices as consumers stretch to pay for higher oil prices. any escalation or geopolitical escalation might be something that might depress and lead to lower demand i don't think we're there, and so the fed doesn't get much help in terms of lower demand i think just the higher price is part of it so that's why they're all onboard with hikes, but debating 50 because of the potential financial economic uncertainty >> all right, thanks, steve. >> joining us right now to talk

more about the fed and future of interest rates and much more is dick parsons and of course dick is also the former chairman of citi group and the former ceo of tom warner let's start with interest rates and what the fed does next you can make arguments on either side of this, the uncertainty factor or look what's happening with commodity oil prices. soft commodities, grains, crops, and hard commodities, too, that all skyrocketed on this and that's got to be bad news for the future of inflation. >> first of all, nice to see you, becky my two friends, joe and andrew i think steve is pretty right on one hand on one hand placing whatever rate before this invasion got to be up $100 a barrel or something

like that. and so the cost of living is going to go up and inflation is going to sort of trail along -- at the same time taking bold action the fed is a cautious institution. this invasion, nobody knows where it's going to go, how it's going to end and will lead to up certainty to all of our future. so i think they're going to slow their roll so to speak i think it's probably going to be -- i think they'll do something more like 25, 35, 45, going up so i think they're moving but i think they're moving ipmoderation >> and is that the right move? is that a goodthing because it keeps us from dipping into a potential recession? is it enough to deal with the

inflation that's out there is that what you've advised? >> you're asking me think like a fed governor i don't know the information, but it seems to me right it does seem they're going to start to apply the brakes. but the problem with this invasion is nobody knows quite where it's going to go the thing that concerns me most is that, you know, if it's contained sort of on the track it's on right now it probably doesn't last too long and doesn't have that much tremendous impact on the economy. but accidents happen when people start shooting at one another. and who knows where it ends up so i think some degree of moderation and caution is appropriate. >> dick, what do you think of the sanctions that were announced yesterday by the white house, and what do you think of the potential of pulling the russians off of s.w.i.f.t., the international banking system

we've been talking this morning about the risks of doing that, the risks ofl potentially pushing them towards the chinese and taking the dollar being the reserve currency of some of these things, but if we're not willing to do that it raises questions what we would do to try to stop putin from doing whatever he wants to do next >> i think, you know, the history of sanctions is that, you know, they've never really been all that successful in terms of preventing and terminating an incident like this they hurt. and these sanctions that have been imposed are going to hurt but are they going to be sufficiently robust to actually cause putin to move in a different direction? i don't think so not in themselves. i think it's going to be some sort of a domestic encouragement, i'll put it that way. a domestic encouragement for him to want to change his course so even if they pull them off

s.w.i.f.t. i think sanctions themselves are going to result in a secession of hostilities over there the russians have been preparing for this for some time they've got a lot of r & b they've stored up and they can withstand the heat at least in the short-term now, since that goes on and on which if very well could, but i don't know how they get out of ukraine. as it goes on and on i can see sanctions being part of a diplomatic negotiated but not in the short-term >> you know, there's a lot of bad choices to be made here. putin, by the way, has been threatening about s.w.i.f.t., he says of course we'd never attack a system that we're a part of, but of course the implication

being they would launch attacks against if they're not part of that system. >> yeah. i was talking to someone yesterday who was comparing this to the missile crisis we had back in the '60s and talking about cyber attacks as the missiles if we took them off s.w.i.f.t. it almost would require being able to predict a russian counter move, which would be some kind of cyber attack on u.s. institutions but business institutions if i had money in business i'd have my guys in and say, look, we've got to be extra on alert for cyber incursions at this point in time just based on the current sessions but, you know, they are probably -- they have sophistication in this space they're probably sitting somewhere on every computer of

every major u.s. corporation just like we are sitting on the computer of every major sove jt instruct and we could do each other a great deal of harm in the cyberspace so i think that's what he's alluding to. and that fact plus the fact europeans want good teat paid the $30 billion owed by the russians and s.w.i.f.t. is part of that suggests they're plot going to pull that string yet. >> i've been contemplating this all month and i know you have to just how far we've come, where you think we've evolved and where you think we still need work in corporateamerica >> those are certainly two disjointed issues, but i'm glad you asked about black history month. it got sort of pushed into the

background by current events i start -- you andrew and even joe aren't old enough to remember something called -- but it was formed by lbj back in the late '60s because we had an outbreak of civil -- we had disorder in the cities we had to find out what was the root cause for these riots, and to me one of the tragedies of the george floyd situation you could have read the report, rolled it forward 50 years and it would still apply the root cause issues for social discord and unhappiness historic discrimination, employment, education, housing so while we attack this over 50

years ago we didn't solve it it still rules and the issue is now what are we going to do about the divide between white america and black america? that's what it comes down to, and i'm hoping -- and the country is now woke, right or at least a majority of the country and the thinking part of the country is now woke. they realize there's a continuing problem in terms of inequality in this country and we have to do something about it or it'll come back again in another 50 years or more or less corporate america i've read say they want tado something about

it the question is what it's not just a matter of throwing money at a problem. it's a matter of addressing the problem in a way it will sustain itself, and to me that means putting money into disadvantaged and uninsured communities and people in those communities who care about those communities and want to build those communities, putting capital that enables them to build businesses, build communities, build family wealth, do all the kinds of things americans have been doing for decades and generations but which is sort of not been available, so my hope is that we find ways to create capital, building opportunities for underserved minorities in the

communities. >> just because february is ending and black history month is ending doesn't mean we stop talking about this, dick we hope you'll come back and continue this conversation but we want to thank you and good to see you today. >> nice to see you, too. and tell joe and andrew i said hey. >> i think they hear you right now. >> hey, dick meantime when we come back, china saying the u.s. has created fear and panic over russia's invasion of ukraine and refusing to condemn the attack we're going to go to beijing for a live update. plus, nasdaq coming off a massive comeback yesterday the index made the biggest 20traday swing since march of 20 we've got "squawk box" returning in just a moment ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here!

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global equity markets continuing to respond to the developments in ukraine. this morning you see red arrows. of course this comes after inan incredible reversal for the s&p 500, the dow and nasdaq yesterday. the nasdaq made a round trip of about 7% it was down as much as 3.5%, almost 3.5% early in the

session. ened up by about 3.3%. right now nasdaq is indicated down about 32 points dow futures this morning indicated down by about 26 and s&p 500 off by about 15 pints o. of course all three of them ending in positive territory yesterday after being down pretty significantly check out the volatility index it's relatively unchanged today, trading right about 30 yesterday it got as high about 37 before calming back down by the end of the session and closing right at around 30 and then if you're taking a look what's been happening in the treasury market you'll see at this hour the ten-year is yielding 1.99%, almost back to 2% stick around "squawk box" will be right back. this idea of making a movie about caring, it resonated with me. and not only caring, but how does that apply to someone from our community? it's about taking care of each other. she is an example of strength. ♪ ♪

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china's foreign ministry saying the country's trade with russia and ukraine would in its words remain normal and refuse to call the invasion or the attack an invasion eunice now joins us with more. hi, eunice >> hey, joe, we have more out of the foreign ministry tonight the chinese foreign ministry has confirmed that chinese president xi jinping and president putin spoke on the phone this afternoon and discussed ukraine.

the ministry says that putin told president xi russia is willing to conduct high level negotiations with ukraine. the ministry also added that president xi said he supports putin resolving the ukraine issue through negotiations, and also added that president xi told putin china's position on the importance of respecting the suv ranty and territorial integrity of all countries now, china has so far been showing support for russia, refraining from calling russia's attack on ukraine an invasion, but at the same time china has indicated a certain level of discomfort with russia's move especially from china's perspective it breaches what china has said is a core tenant of its non-interference foreign policy so this latest development, joe, could show that level of

discomfort and a reason behind the call >> yeah, that's -- you don't have a tape of the call, i guess, eunice. would have been -- >> no. but it has been recorded by the chinese foreign ministry >> amazing we need to know. we're on a need to know basis. eunice, let me know when you find out more. appreciate it. see you later. thanks still to come, rocket company's ceo jay farner on the how'sing market, interest rates and so much more an interview you don't want to miss stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

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the nasdaq coming off a massive come back, making the biggest intraday swing since march of 2020, coming back from being down 3.5% midday, closing up over 3% joining us now to break down tech's big move the managing director at cleo capital and managing director at newburgher berman sarah, i hate to ask you whether we're calling a bottom here on some of the faang stocks and

nasdaq, but at least ask the question >> i think the bottom is starting to get priced in. i think people see this as a belated president's day sale and want to shop because a lot of the bad news we're living in today has been privy to us for quite a while. we've known the stock market has been slumping. we've known, unfortunately, there was an impending russian invasion of ukraine. now that stuff is happening i think people figure, you know, it's not going to get worse in the short-term so let's go shopping >> and you think whatever the fed is going to do is completely baked into the cake. >> i don't know if it's simply baked in, but i do think the cake is in the oven and getting close to done. >> daniel, is the cake in the oven and getting burnt

>> i think what we're focused on is innovation and growth and even during this role of covid, the shifting geopolitical dynamics and the invasion of ukraine, we're seeing a lot of opportunity. take kyiv, secular trends like art financial intelligence, the cloud, mobile, build out of digital networks, that's very, very healthy so look at a company like nvidia, which is continuing to innovate their solutions in ai or art financial intelligence are important in areas like drug discovery. qualcomm which has very attractive growth prospects, a company like google or alphabet are continuing to invest tattoo innovate core search is healthy, youtube is strong. a lot of strong potential in the platform, and i'll round it out with amazon and e-commerce, which remains probably more important coming out of this period than it is coming in. a lot to like. >> i don't think anybody is

dismissing or disagreeing with the idea that these are stable and growing and fabulous companies. i think the question today is what is the is valuation of these companies and what kind of multiple do you put on them? nobody is saying there's a good company or bad company eror their best days are behind them or this or that. it's literally what is the multiple in an environment of rising interest rates? >> the environment of rising interest rates in my view, andrew, is still relatively benign and i say that we're the ten-year at 3% or even 4%. that's still very low historically we've seen from the recent earnings, the outlooks, the data and the commentary that the underlying drivers of the business are still healthy ultimately i think the market is going to care about revenue and free cash flow growth. even for multiples to be a little bit lower i think the stocks for investments over the next one to two years, the names

i mentioned are attractive so that in my view holds even in the face of rising rates, inflation and the invasion of ukraine. >> sarah, what do you think in terms of just straight valuation, when you think about the multiple being applied in the tech space right now relative to where they were six months ago >> it might deflate a bit more but these are companies with strong fundamentals and the markets are pretty comfortable with aggressive valuations right now. i would pay a ton of attention to cyber security companies right now. i think given what's going on, given the cyber warfare theater, given what we've seen in crypto and all of that is going to be very hard to lose money in good cyber security insurance products for a while >> okay, we're going to leave the conversation there great to see you both. have a great weekend sarah and daniel, thanks again

>> thank you when we come back much more on ukraine and russia but corporate news we want to get to as well including the ceo of etsy josh silvean jrmoin us to talk about the company's results and the online retail space. "squawk box" will be right back. hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪ alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone?

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning i want to switch now to company news since the height of covid, some market high fliers have seen shares drop like shopify, zoom and carvana all off more than 62%. also off is etsy, shares hitting a 52-week low yesterday. the company reported fourth quarter results after the bell yesterday that beat on both the top and bottom line. should say by the way up 16% in the premarket this morning josh silverman, ceo of etsy. great to see you this morning. i want to talk about your earnings but how you see the marketplace and value, and valuation for your company and others like it >> yeah, thanks for having me. i think we've seen an indiscriminate pull back across all the pandemic stocks, and i

think the market is maybe scared about whether all the pandemic gains are going to dissipate and so it's going to take some time for the market to sort out winners from losers. what i'll say about etsy is we think the earnings report we gave yesterday demonstrated the durability of etsy's growth. etsy is now more than twice as big as it was pre-pandemic in fact, we're twice as big in the u.s. we're four times as big as we were pre-pandemic in the u.k we've got more than 5 million sellers, more than $90 million buyers, and we're showing the gains we made over the period of the pandemic are holding if we look at the first quarter of 2021, etsy grew 132% year over year this time of last year that's one of the highest growth rates any public e-commerce company has ever posted. and what we guided to this quarter, this year is that we'd

hold we think all of those gains, and in spite of the fact last year there was substantial stimulus and lockdowns, you had very few other places you could shop we're finding this year people are choosing to come back to etsy again and again even when their pudgets are tigare tighte and even when they've had a lot more choices >> how does your stock change the ability to hire and attract talent zp we've never sold stock based on our stock price our talent has a lot of places they can work. it's a really tough labor market but we think that etsy does something important. etsy's mission is keeping commerce human and in a world that's pulling us apart more and more the idea to bring people through commerce, the idea to lift up small and microbusinesses and give them a chance to fight on even footing

against the big guys, we think that's something really meengingful. e and i think our employees are motivated by that and i think etsy's leaned into es dprg frome beginning. in fact, we publish an integrated report. we don't just publish our financial reports. we actually publish our social impact report as well with the same level of scrutiny from outside auditors we've put on our financials, and it's those kinds of things i think give our team the comfort we're walking the walk, and i think it's times like this that really matters. >> josh, you said customers are coming back. what kind of size purchases are they making? you mention the stimulus which seems to really boost the business early on. are you seeing a shift in the kinds of products being bought and the price points of them >> we are seeing a shift

for example, our largest category is home furnishings, and home furnishings grew pretty explosively during the pandemic. we're seeing home furnishings is about flat year over year right now. many people in the home industry are seeing substantial pull backs this year. you did a lot of nesting the last two years and now you want to get out of your house we're actually pleased we're flat year over year, but weddings is a category for example that's growing in the mid-20s. so the variety of products available for sale on etsy we think gives us the ability to withstand differing changes in consumer taste >> what do you think of customer acswusition costs at this point and what services whether it's google, social media, other platforms are you seeing being more or less effective in this environment? >> so costs are rising in media

markets no doubt the majority of our customers actually come to us word of mouth, so that's always been a strength of ours, building a brand that means something and stands for something truly different, sole we're not always at the back end of google or facebook or others we do spend and invest meaningfully in marketing. above the line in tv advertising as well as perform that, but wee constantly looking at what's the return we're getting and making sure that investment pays off for our salaries >> search engine optimization in terms of buying google search, buying on facebook is not a huge component here >> well, performance market including google is an important piece of etsy's marketing mix, of course. but more than half of our

customers come to us for free. organic search results for everyone because organic search results are getting less and less prominence on google search page as other things are being marketed on google search page but we feel great about the fact what matters most is you have a brand that stands for something different that's memorable enough consumers will actually remember you when you come back, and etsy has a large percentage of our traffic organic and we think that means we're delivering a great customer experience and doing something truly memorable. and that's where i think we can build a lasting business >> josh, always good to see you, getting your perspective and insight on the business. we wish you lots of luck and hope to talk to you very, very soon >> let's take a look at the futures this morning we had seen the dow futures down by about 300 points early in the session. they're only down about 13 and getting down the flat line, and

the nasdaq is on the flat line, too. it's blinking positive every once in a while. this is happening as we're just getting some news reports. these are russian newswires i should point out that russia is willing to send a delegation to minsk to talk about some sort of diplomacy, potentially, when it comes to ukraine i don't know how much trust you can put in that at this point, how much faith, but it is having an impact and watching the futures this morning probably worth pointing out that china which has at this point failed to go ahead and call this an invasion of russia by ukraine has said they'd like to see diplomacy used i don't know if that's a soft way of pulling pressure on this or not, but again you're talking about the futures the dow going down about, and we'll continue to watch this and give more on the geopolitical fall out on russia's invasion of ukraine the former leader of the u.k.

independence party nigel farage will be our guest. "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. now the futures have turned positive perhaps on some intimations that some type of reason may be seeping into vladimir putin's head. it has -- who knows, though. >> hard to bleechb

>> the lies we get coming from state run media not in this country but in russia is always staggering >> the headlines that we've seen coming out of russia say russia is willing to send a delegation to minsk for talks with ukraine over the ukraine situation and if you kind of put that together with what eunice was reporting and what reuters was talking about on that call that putin had with xi, with china today apparently he said according to these reports and reuters is also reporting this, that russia is willing to hold high level talks with ukraine. it goes onto say china has repeatedly called for the crisis to be resolved through dialogue. to this point china has not said this was an invasion they've been holding off but maybe there's some pressure coming from china. it's hard to say as you mention all the reports we get out of this from news organizations in russia, they were saying up until the moment they were invading there was no invasion plan. >> there's no way to minimize

what's happening over there, but there has been people that said this was not the shock and awe that putin was capable of. and i don't know is there any way to think that he would be willing to -- >> you would think i mean, who did we talk to earlier today who said the pressure would have to come from the russian people apparently oligarchs may not have the same sway, but you would think president xi of china would have some potential sway as well >> we're going to actually have a conversation a little bit about this with -- are we ready? >> i think we are. >> no, i don't think we're -- >> i was just goingto say -- and you just made this point yesterday that at some point it is important for the markets to be more stable for the purposes for china at least the question is how stable, and are they willing to -- are they willing to live with some

instability, and maybe they are and maybe they aren't. you know, they're often playing a longer game than maybe the rest of the world. but if they aren't willing to live with the instability, maybe they are putting pressure on putin at this point. >> this is a way for china to kind of flex its muscle and show how it could be incredibly important in a situation like this and maybe get some western leaders on the side of thinking, okay, you want to have china on the same page with some of these issues it would be incredibly important if they were able to put things back in place and maybe take the idea of a land war in europe off the table. there's no way to underestimate how powerful that would be if that were the situation here we're watching the futures dow futures now up by about 100 points after being down as much as 300 again, these are reports that are coming out in some cases

from russian media it's hard to substantiate but the china factor can't be underestimated >> i think we're going to go to dom chu who's looking at the stuff moving markets this morning perhaps beyond what we're seeing in ukraine, perhaps where we are >> reporter: we are seeing a lot of that action and a lot of it's tied with obviously what's happening with ukraine also we've got earnings season going on, things happening there. we'll start with the big move to the up side here this is a check on block, the fin tech company formerly known as square. those shares are up about 17, 18% right now. about quarter million shares already changed hands in the premarket. block posted better than expected revenues and gave forecasts for the current quarter and full year thanks in part to its growing popularity in cash app.

block shares are down 68% from the recent highs we've seen here a lot of that kind of buying has already been precipitated by a huge sell-off in the stock the athletic shoe and apparel retailer did report better than expected profits and revenues. sales growth at store locations fell shy of estimates. that stock, by the way, is down 38% from its recent highs here again, footlocker down about 17% in premarket trade a check on the most searched tickers on our website from yesterday's full session day one, of course of the russian invasion of ukraine, a lot of macro-focused interest. crude oil actually cracks the top ten right now i believe it was number 6 on that list, but only three single stock tickers made the top ten most searched on our website and that was tesla, apple and moderna

ever everything else was makro focused. >> there's also headlines coming from the ap right now saying russian military says it has seized strategic airport outside of the ukrainian capital and claims that it has cut kyiv off from the west. and i think that this is really important to continue to get all of the sides of the things we're hearing just based on whatpute has done to this point, which is to say there's no invasion here, nothing going on, these are just military exercises all while continuing to build things up and be ready for that. >> what if it was broached by someone, and it has been that ukraine agrees not to go into nato ukraine agrees not to go into nato

a country should be able to decide on what it wants to do itself, but it is right next -- and putin, that is a burr -- it's been a burr up his rear the entire time. >> okay, we're going to talk to farage, and i think he made this point. nigel farage, are you with us right now? is there any way that that's a legitimate request to make to ukraine, don't go into nato? and would that have changed what's happening right now or would it change it from here from putin is he reasonable in any way, or is he just headed all the way to poland >> i've always thought putin to be a less rational, sensible player, not a man i like very much but i worry what he's doing now, whether he may have lost reason. he seems to have this reason russia will go back. i now do believe given what he's

done in the last 72 hours going into poland, estonia, latvia, lithuania is possible. and that is what the world needs is the american president to step up, take the leadership and to say this is our red line, and we absolutely mean it. and i'm really worried that if we don't do this it gives a big signal to china to say you know what you can walk him to taiwan, you can deny the western world, its semiconductors, you can bring our economies to a grinding halt, so this really is a big, big moment and we need biden to take control and take leadership >> nigel, when you have said what you just posited and seen other people that he does things for his own self-interest, and you said years ago that ukraine -- if ukraine continued to get closer and closer to the rest, closer and closer to the

united states, that that was going to eventually result in some type of action because it's so -- it's right on russia's western border, do you think that it's -- do you think that it would be i don't know acceptable to ask a sovereign country to tell what kind of alliances it can have or what it can't have or should they have appeased putin and said, okay, fine, you give us our sovereignty, let us manage our own future and fortune, but we won't join nato. is that possible they could have done that? >> i have felt for 30 years ever since the fall of the berlin wall that we have made a huge geopolitical error we promised -- we absolutely promised the russians that we would not extend nato to the east, but we did nato and in particular the european union thought to go further and further. the revolution of 2014, brought

down a democratically elected leader of ukraine was done by people with the funds awash from the european union who wanted ukraine to join, and i can't understand why ukraine might have wanted to join nato, might have wanted to join the european union, but it was for us to say no we're not going to do that to understand the historic principle of buffer states, to understand russians have always been paranoid after what napoleon did, after what hitler did. i stood up and said in 2014 we're poking the russian bear with a stick and i fear it will lead to russian nationalism. we should have said right from the start of this recent conflict there's no way ukraine is joining nato. taken away from putin hisport from the russian people who see themselves as being incircled.

none of this, by the way, validates putin's behavior but we should understand just how wrong we got this. >> well, that's a different notion entirely that he wants to reconstitute the soviet empire, because that conjures up all kinds of you don't know where, you know, the baltics, poland, you don't know where it could go, and sounds like it could usher in something horrific, something he alluded to the other night, something that history has never seen or ww3 -- any way you want to rephrase it it might be hyperbole but that's something different. and ukraine has been pretty close to the united states in terms of weapons and everything else, right? he could make that case. >> yeah, look, you know, i say i don't think it's the soviet days he dreams of

it's imperial russia this is the great romantic dream that putin has, and i'm afraid now he's gone as far as he is, it's different to call what the next move is we have to be clear, absolutely clear if any infringement takes place on a nato member state we will and we are prepared to go to war and let's remember one thing, he may have a big army his army and navy and air force are very, very tech logically behind where we are there comes a point where he thinks we're serious, he'll stop >> nigel, what about the threat of a cyber attack? we spoke earlier to dick parsons who kind of laid this out and said this is the new crisis, to have cyber weapons pointed at your companies and not know if you're going to be able to defend against that. is that the case is this a new

cold war >> yes, i think it probably is we have no idea in term of cyber just how tech logically advanced he is. i suggest in terms of military care they're a long way behind i suspect in this they may be, too. the other big problem we've got is the more sanctions we put on putin the closer we drive him towards the chinese, communist government we're seeing overnight china coming out very openply backing and supporting putin so we really are at -- it's no exaggeration to say that we really are at the most dangerous situation since the super cuban missile crisis none of this, by the way, would have happened -- none of it had biden not unilaterally withdrawn from afghanistan last year sending a message that the west was divided, the west was weak and that america, the leader of the free world had a leader who frankly wasn't up to it.

>> so far, nigel, it's been -- i mean it's horrific obviously and you can look at the cover of any newspaper. but we made the point that he could have -- could have been much more shock and awe, and there were fears it could be more shock and awe would you characterize what putin has done so far as showing any sign of restraint at all because of, you know, world opinion and how he's trying to mold hids only appealing to the russian people or does he care about what the rest of the world thinks of his actions? >> he clearly does not want there to be vast civilian casualties because that would be very, very bad for him what he's done is a strategic taking out of airports, missile sites. what he's doing is trying to make sure that ukraine does not have air cover if he finally or

when he finally moves troops in. and strategically i can see the game he's playing. look at the last week, there isn't much restraint around is there? >> and nigel, since no one is really pushing back on it you effectively blame president biden for this in its entirety based on the afghanistan evacuation, if you will, or lack of evacuation which i think everybody agrees was a mistake, but nonetheless you don't think the four years preceding that, you don't think trump trying to visit putin on russian soil was a problem or giving him a pr victory on covid or inviting putin to the 2020 g7 or ordering the cia to share intel with russia or ignoring the russian bounties on our own soldiers, i'm talking about the four years prior -- >> yeah, well, this is -- we're

in danger here and heading down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole was the idea -- was the idea that we should attempt to negotiate with putin to try and build a relationship with putin, was that a bad idea? no, it was a very good idea. and trump said from the start this may not succeed, but i'm going to try and i think that was the right thing to do. as churchill said georgia is a lot better than world war. there needs to be a recognition amongst us we have got so much wrong in terms of geopolitics over the last 30 years trump talking to putin crossing the line, going into north korea, these were all good things for a u.s. president to do the point i'm making is we in the united kingdom have been by your side since almost every

major conflict we were by your side for 20 years in afghanistan we're smaller than you, but per capita we spent the same amount of money as the u.s. we have the same number of casualties as the u.s. it was beyond comprehension in what was a nato mission that biden would unilaterally withdraw without even consulting the british prime minister so much of the debate in europe, in nato has been does america care anymore has america withdrawn from the world stage? and it's that weakness -- it's that perceived weakness at least that putin has played into >> nigel, no question there probably should have been consultations between a partner, but what about what former president donald trump has said this week about putin, about this being a brilliant move to do this in this way? >> what trump is saying is that putin is master chess player

and in many ways he has been up until now, but i think his actions in the last 48 hours made me question made me question whether the man is still rational and whether he's still sane >> nigel farage, what -- do you think china is a go or 50% you say emboldened, but in watching so you're expecting this to happen or they haven't made a decision yet? i mean, at some point it seems like it's going to happen but do you think near rather than far >> they've made their decision a long time ago. look at chinese state media over the course of the last few days. their comments about taiwan or becoming increasingly bellicose. i fear something will happen and perhaps happen very, very quickly. it is said when trump met president xi he said if you move on taiwan we will bomb beijing

i can't prove that was said, but with donald trump it wouldn't surprise me. and you know something dealing with these tyrannical dictators, you have have got to put the fear of god into them. right now if china moves on taiwan in the next few months, what is your response going to be i think you and i both know there wouldn't be one. >> so many times we hear, you know, the buck stops here with the current administration, but so many times it just doesn't. i mean it -- i guess it means nothing that it didn't happen during the prior four years and it's happening now that would seem to be the obvious take, but i don't know maybe too obvious. anyway, nigel farage, it's been good to have you on this morning. we'll see you later. thanks when we come back rocket company ceo jay farner will join us to talk about the hot housing reh et, interest rates and muc mo stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone the futures this morning still in the green at this point we did see a bit of a big turn around dow futures had been down by almost 300 points earlier, and then we started getting a

russian headline that said that russia is supposedly ready to send a delegation to minsk for ukraine talks. of course this is coming from a russian news agency, and as we know what putin is saying may not be exactly what he's doing we've also heard reports coming out from the ap suggesting that the russian military is saying at the same time it has seized strategic -- a strategic airport right outside the ukrainian capital claiming that it cut kyiv off from the west at the same time. still, the markets taking this as a sign that maybe there could be something short of a war that takes place, a land war in europe at this pace. we'll continue to watch this very closely, but the futures have turned around on some of these conflicting headlines. and also take a look at the trashtry market this morning and see the yields there right now the ten-year is yielding back about 2% 30 year at 3%, and mortgage rates near three-year highs. national, recent figures show

applications for both new home purchases and refinancing have declined significantly joining us right now is the ceo at the center of all of this, what is still a highly destructive housing market, jay farner of rocket company i know you reported your quarterly yesterday. earnings missing estimates, but the revenue did come in above forecast i know for the year you were talking about closed low volume of $350 billion. that's a record for the company. so many people trying to figure out what comes next with the housing markets and what comes next with the rate picture what can you tell us about what you're seeing right now? >> that was a great year, 2021, increase over 12% from 2020 which was an amazing year as well incredibly proud of our team members. as you mentioned we've seen a rapid increase in interest rates, and for us the focus has been on skill. we were at about 70% of our

production ending the year that was less or non-interest rate sensitive, so purchase, cash out, those sorts of things we set a record in 2021 for purchase loans and now last week we're almost 90% loan originations that are nonrate sensitive or less rate sensitive. that's where we're headed. and the housing market remains very robust, so there'll be a lot of purchase done in fact, as we started the year our verified approval pipeline, people wanting to buy a home was at record levels, the largest preapproval numbers we've seen in the 36-year company history it's a changing market for sure, but by focusing on the right things it would still be a great year >> so what do you think the market is not understanding about your story because the stock has been under pressure consistently for months and months at this point closed a new 52-week low, new all-time low earlier this week what do they not understand

about the story they were putting out there? >> that's exactly why i'm on here talking today someone said, hey, jay, you don't always have to go on cnbc. and i want to have a consistent cadence talking what we're doing here at rocket companies we've built a model but we're so much more than that. we had a super bowl commercial this year where we announced rocket homes to the public that company did i think about $8 billion of market value transactions or home transactions in 2021 we've got rocket auto, and of course we've just acquired true bill which brings on millions of clients. all the rocket clients we have can join true bill to learn about saving money with subscriptions, bill negotiations so we continue to build out our financial platform that is different than anyone else out in the industry. so i think if we consistently tell the story and then

demonstrate it through good results, we'll get there and dan and i have been doing this for quite some time now, so we focus on the long picture, not what the stock does on any given day, week or month focusing on doing the right things over a long period of time i think will get us there >> one of the things that have set you apart has been your technology, your ability to kind of get these things done quickly, to be able to size somebody up and tell them what they're rate is going to be at a very quick pace. i think, in fact, dan has told me in the past you guys can do it even faster, it's just people don't believe it if you do it in less than 15 minutes how do you use that to change in what has been this historic housing market where rates have been great for people? how do you use that to work with the customers, and again there are a lot of doubters on the streets, short sales in the stock and a lot of concern out there. how do you dissuade people of

those notions? >> our focus and if you look at our margin for q4 and also the projections we're given for q1, our margins are incredibly strong why is that important? because we have to continue to invest in branded technology when you think about what the consumer needs and wants right now, that's a quick transaction. that's a transaction that is certain. as we link our mortgage business, our rocket homes business, our for sale by owner business together we can create an experience that delivers dwrat certainty and great speed. and as we do that sign-up additional real estate agents, financial planners and people active in the industry who want to participate in our platform certainly there's always concern about interest rates moving around at the end of the day to be successful that's the technology and the brand we're building that's why we had a record year in 2021. we beat our goal for purchase, and as i said before 2022 is starting off very strong as well so all of those things, all that

investment in technology and the thousands of people we've got building that technology, will continue to separate us from everyone else. and you talked about speed it really comes down to speed. in a cash market like this people need to know you're going to close on that property, and that's exactly what our technology delivers. >> the biggest question on wall street right now is where rates are headed what's your own internal projection about where we see interest rates for 20221234. >> yeah, i certainly think that a lot of these interest rate hikes we're expecting here in 2022 are priced into the ten-year treasury. so, you know, where we're at today feels like kind of where we will be give or take a slight increase or decreases over time. as you know it's impossible to predict what's going to happen especially heard you talking about what's going to happen with ukraine what grows this business over the next three years, next five years and how do keep returning value to our shareholders.

we've given back in the form of dividends or stock buy backs, so we'll keep doing the right things to create value for our stakeholders and i know the rest will take care of itself >> thank you for your time today. when we come back we do have breaking inflation data. stay tuned u' wchg quawk box," and this is cnbc now when it comes to a financial plan this broker is your man. let's open your binders to page 188... uh carl, are there different planning options in here? options? plans we can build on our own, or with help from a financial consultant? like schwab does. uhhh... could we adjust our plan... ...yeah, like if we buy a new house? mmmm... and our son just started working. oh! do you offer a complimentary retirement plan for him? as in free? just like schwab. schwab! look forward to planning with schwab.

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from january data, and we're going to get durable goods and personal income numbers as well. futures turning around on the headline this morning russia is apparently ready for talks with ukraine. that's from a russian news source, so unclear but you're look at the dow up about 110 points on that news. sn s&p 500 up about 16 points things are trading the ten year note at 2.005. the numbers, sir >> well, we're a little early for the numbers, andrew, but it's going to be very fascinating to keep a close eye. and of course the personal consumption expenditureflater and the core deflater, these are issues that will reflect pricing inflationary pressures we also want to pay close attention to the spending side because it was negative last month as was real spending as

suggested for inflation. so we want to pay close attention to how all the real numbers adjusted for inflation at and hovering above 2% with the green arrows doesn't mean the horrible events in ukraine areover, but at least the market is getting some sense how to price it currently, how to price it in the future and how to price things, you know, like 10% of global oil trade comes from russia. we're a few seconds away from our january income and spending numbers. as i've said we're looking for a positive spending side here it's starting to trickle in, andrew, you know, numbers aren't like they used to be pro-covid. let's start with what i see right here personal income for january, unchanged, which is better than the down three to four tenths we're expecting. definitely reversing the minus 0.6 we had last month, and do keep in mind the revisions may trickle out. on the real spending side which i alluded to adjusted for

inflation had 2.1%, downgraded to 1.5%. now let's get into the very important numbers on the deflater month over month expecting up 0.6 we end up with up 0.6, and very important because in order to find a higher number than that you have to go to june of 2008 now, when it comes to the year over year number that was at 6.1%, definitely hotter than expected to find a higher number than that you're going to 81. look at the month over month deflater, personal expenditure, up.5 asect expected, that was in april so nice to moderate over that a bit if you look at the year over year number we get 5.2 to find a higher number than 5.2 you have to go back to april of '83, so not much easing back on the pricing issues

now let's do our january preliminary read on volatile goods. in another week and a half to two weeks right now up 1.6%. that's much better than the 1% we were looking for, and in the rearview mirror once again we reversed to negative 0.7 and strip out transportation it basically gets cut iphalf. you know autos have a big drag in the supply chain and drops to 0.7% it was up three times expectations and a gain from 0.3 to 0.4 last month. up 1.9% and in the rearview mirror upgraded 0.3 last month from 1.3 to 1.6. these numbers are pretty decent and i would be surprised if we

don't see a little more upside to interest rates, of course, especially if we continue to get a deeper shade of green on the equity side. andrew and the gang, back to you. >> rick, thank you want to get straight over, though, to steve liesman, get his thoughts on these numbers. steve? >> yeah, andrew, thank you i think rick made a nice point there, pretty decent the expectation was that the economy bounced back a bit from the december numbers, but not quite so strongly, and now we're seeing as rick points out better numbers in durables, much better numbers on the consumer spending side i would point out savings were drawn down, and this is amid the inflation numbers that he did cite correctly the 5.2 on the core pce here. we're about togo through some dramatic uncertainty here, some of it higher oil prices, higher energy prices pressuring

american pocketbooks so the issue here is how much spending declines and how much pain is felt and how americans are able to withstand it, and all of this of course paling in front of the pain being felt in the war zone there, but the impact here is going to be from higherprices at least initially. so we have a bounce back we expect to be coming from omicron and the shutdowns from that. overall we're going into a period of high uncertainty in better economic shape and accelerating economic shape. so in terms of the sacrifices here that need to be taken, i think the u.s. consumer is in reasonably good shape if not a good mood. >> okay, steve, thank you for that analysis. becky? >> thanks, andrew. still to come this morning the impact of russia's ukrainian invasion on emerging market stocks and how we should be making sense of yesterday's stunning turn around on wall

street we'll be speaking with veteran investor mark mobias stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ esg is responsible investing. who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve, with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim.

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future's turning positive in the last hour on a report that russia might be ready to talk

with ukraine right now we're going to talk ourselves about whether the u.s. market is the best place for investors or if they should be favoring other markets, emerging markets, frontier markets. our next guest says in the wake of the invasion of ukraine now china is a safe haven trade. let's welcome mark mobias, founding partner are you assuming anything about what china, what their stance is right now on the russian invasion are you assuming political motivations there, mark, or do you know something we don't that they're not going to go into taiwan >> no. i don't think we're going to make any move at this stage of the game and probably going to play the middle ground as much as possible. and even try to be a peacemaker. as you know recently they made a statement russia should talk to the ukrainians and so forth. so i don't think that's going to happen at this stage of the

game but, if things really begin to get worse in ukraine and russia takes over ukraine, then the game will change and i think china's attitude may change, and if the west doesn't react soon enough, that would not be a good sign, i think. >> how do you view china it's like a quasi-emerging market probably not, but there are some aspects because most emerge markets i don't think you would recommend given the geopolitical backdrop those markets are down, some of them it's not a monolith. i guess there are some south american markets actually doing better, but how does it work when you look at all of them >> you look at all of them and very interesting a good point you made. brazil is up of course saudi arabia is up, no big surprise there but a number of these markets like taiwan and korea, they're flat they're not really reacting to

the situation. and in the case of china, china is already down. so i would say that now is a good time to be looking at china because they're lowering interest rates and trying their best to maintain a high growth rate, and of course india is down but not as much as the others but it's a very mixed picture, and you have to pick and choose your game to see where is the best place to be. but i would say emerging markets, too, provide some degree of volatility but also safe haven >> and the united states at this point you're, what, neutral? >> yeah, i would be neutral at this stage the s&p really does not look good so i think we have to watch and wait to see how that pans out. but the big story of course the u.s. dollar is strong, and countries that are exporting

from the u.s. benefit from this move it's very interesting to see how this pans ow generally speaking we're not recommending people -- in fact this is a good time to be in equities given the inflation rate going up and of course interest rates going to follow very, very rapidly i mean, i see interest rates in the u.s. going up to 6%, 7%, 8% if this continues the way it's been going >> what about europe, just what we classically think of in the european markets is that just too uncertain at this point given energy concerns, you know, putin eventually going to -- where does this end? what do you think? >> very uncertain. and it's interesting that, you know, people say emerging markets are risky, and now we're beginning to think maybe europe is risky because of the situation that's happening on the borders of the european union. i mean, you've got poland, all

these countries that are being threatened, basically, by what's happening in ukraine so europe does not look good at all. and unless they show a strong move to sort of stop russia at some point then it's not going to be very good. but the european market should be reasonably good, but i would say better off to be diversified keeping something there because many of these companies are really global companies not only europe >> have you ever made investments in russian companies per se, mark and i mean it -- cheap, cheap. value, would that ever be something that you would do or do you see it as just a big filling station like a gas station, an oil producer >> i mean, i was in russia in a

big way in the past. we had millions and millions of dollars of russian equities, and of course i was sitting on the border of a russian oil company. you've got some terrific companies in russia, and good example it was not an oil company so, yeah, i would go back in but now of course with the sanctions it doesn't make much sense to go in at this st eve wonder whether that calculus has occurred, you don't even think vladimir putin thinks about that does he think about the economy he's going to leave the russian people with after all this >> i think he's going to have to stop thinking in that direction. the pressure must be on from businessmen in russia. i mean, if you read the sanctions u.s. and europe has imposed in terms of transactions, it's very, very a

big deal it's a big deal for russia they're not going to be able to do a lot of transactions the banks and the other banks are going to be in trouble at least in the short-term. so i think they have to start thinking about the impact of these sanctions, no question about that >> so your favorite place is china, that speaks volumes, i guess. would you characterize it that way? favorite place to invest -- >> favorite places are india, taiwan, and china through hong kong >> and obviously that can change quickly depending on circumstances. all right, mark mobias, thank you. appreciate it. we'll check back hopefully hopefully there are some things different next time. >> coming up next, we're going to get jim cramer's first take on the markets friday morning and yesterday's massive midday bounce for stocks.

and hoover institution now ferguson is going to join us how he thinks american can help wean europe off russian energy. stay tuned u' watching "squawk box" on cnbc this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer is standing by. watching what happened yesterday, jim, but the turp around pretty incredible, but then again this morning with the

futures up about 130 for the dow. that's incredibly impressive you know how it makes you feel what you think about these things what would you be doing this morning? >> we really oversold, and i don't know whether the ukraine people could be very brave, but it doesn't matter. they haven't moved the tanks in yet. it would be an interesting situation if russia takes kyiv and then the chinese call for peace -- peace talks and i think that was a possibility >> it's a fait accompli they've already taken ukraine but then they'll have talks and we're already there. >> not that many people have been killed. again, anyone who's been killed it's terrible, but i think thaekd take kyiv in a relatively

pompous fashion and then the chinese negotiate a peace treaty -- a piece agreement. the chinese look great, the russians take over the country, they install a puppet government and then it's done because we put sanctions against banks that don't really have anything to do with us and actually no real imp pact and the russians have some spare capacity to pump oil so if there's any real worry they can puch mp more oil and bn in more surplus. >> one of the things i don't think we've spent much time talking about is the potential for cyber war. >> yeah, i mean, he said that the russians are constantly doing it there'sane bestep up, that they already did a dry run in ukraine and corporations here is as vulnerable or the grid is vulnerable or the banks spent a lot of money

i am saying ever since 2014 when the russians really started the cyber war with ukraine, we've gotten very sophisticated here, and you can't expect they're going be able to target us as easily as them because we spent a lot of money protecting -- obviously bad in i feel strongly that, yeah, you have to watch to see -- if the russians on the outskirts of kyiv, they should be unfortunately, sadly, be able to take it over by monday. >> that's pretty stark reality. >> why elz would the chinese say, hey, listen. >> that makes sense. it looks like they're getting something out of the russians are getting what they wanted anyway. >> i think it's sadly what i think could happen. >> yeah. >> jim, thank you. we'll see you again in a few minutes. i know you'll be watching this closely. in the meantime, in a wall street journal op-ed, the next guest they believe it would

steady russia's aggressiveness in reality, it funded more russian weapons. we're seeing the arms at work in the ukraine invasion joining us now is neil ferguson. his new op-ed is titled "how to beat putin with natural gas. it's great to see you, neil. how do you beat him with natural gas at this point? >> you can't do it overnight we're seeing the consequence of europe allowing itself to become so reliept on gnash really a gas and oil. to the extent that, firstly, vladimir putin has been able to build up and modernize russia's military reestablish russia as a great power capable of winning multiple wars. as my good friend and colleague chris miller points out in today's "new york times," but, also, of course, europe has got to the point it can't easily impose the kind of sanctions that would really hurt russia

without, of course, hurting itself the russians have known this for years. i can remember putin more or less pointing it out explicitly not long ago in 2007 this was something that the europeans walked into knowingly. the germans, for decades, believed if they could integrate russia into the european economy, somehow russia would behave better would westernize itself it was the same mistake we made, of course, with china on the global scale the only real alternative for europe is to diversify away from russia as a source of energy unfortunately, the european commission is convinced it can do this with purely renewables that's not realistic it's especially not realistic if the germans refuse to revisit nuclear powers what is left well, the answer is liquefied natural gas. that is something that the united states, which provides europe's underlying security guarantee has in abundance, if it's prepared to develop the resources and then, of course,

export them. >> neil, there have been calls, as you know, for this moment effectively to be a call for more green energy. for nuclear. for more wind, more solar, all of it. you think that's not realistic >> well, i think the europeans are gradually realizing this because not least the energy price spikes we've seen recently the reality, if you bet entirely on wind and solar, you're at the must see or variable sources of energy if you rule out nuclear power as the germans didafter fukushima you're relying on the french to provide the nuclear power. but the critical point is that if you allow natural gas to be developed and developed in a responsible, clean way, that actually provides a reliable source that nonfluctuating source that allows your overall grid to be stable.

i think it's gradually dawning on the european commission to go in on wind and solar they gradually are going to redefine greens so it includes nuclear and natural gas. but natural gas from russia makes you effectively the captive of vladimir putin. it needs to be natural gas from other more reliable sources. and the united states is the best answer of all the united states has natural gas in abundance, if, of course, the u.s. government allows the energy industry to develop those resources. they're much cleaner, of course, than the russians. they're not russian natural gas industries some even from a green point of view, that's preferable to get your natural gas from the clean united states rather than dirty and dangerous russia. >> and, you know, in terms of the relationship that the u.s. should have with russia and putin, that europe should have with russia and putin, you just made the argument, i think, that europe made a mistake by trying

to integrate rush t-- russia to some degree into the economy they should have pushed him away it's an interesting argument because we saw this play out in the united states oprah winfrey t -- over the last four years under trump and a shift under biden and a debate where we are today >>well, i think we've learned that you can't deter putin from making war on neighboring countries or even not neighboring countries like syria by threatening him with sanctions. that's been obvious since at least 2014 yet the biden administration decided it would somehow be able to prevent the destruction of a democratic and free ukraine by military force simply by threatening sanctions. some sanctions are terrible sanctions. but in truth, when the chips are down, and you said to the europeans, okay, how can we really hurt putin, the things that will hurt him, like excludeing russian financial

system from s.w.i.f.t. or preventing him from exporting his gas and oil, especially oil, the europeans are like, well, actually maybe not those sanctions. can we do the sanctions that won't hurt us. putin knew it would happen he knew it was the fundamental weakness of the western position, which is why he's gone ahead. by the way, very few people foresaw he was going to invade ukraine. i've been arguing this since the beginning of january it was so clear that sanctions wouldn't deter him the only thing that would have deterred putin, remember, is a significant improvement in ukraine's defense capability that would have inflicted serious damage on a russian invading force we decided not to do that. in fact, we dialled back our arming of the ukrainians last year i think it was a bad mistake by the biden, many. we also temporarily, of course, lifted the sanctions on the pipeline which has been cancelled. all of these things are happening too late they won't stop the outcome, which i think jim cramer rightly said a minute ago is going to be the decapitation of ukraine. the installation of a --

>> we have to thank you. neil, we've got some breaking news that is crossing. i want to thank you for your perspective on this. i want to bring in this news nbc news reporting that president biden will nominate a federal appellate judge ken tax nji brown jackson as the first black woman to the supreme court. that news crossing now we wanted to bring it to you before the end of the broadcast. ken tan ji. >> yeah. we can tell you about that ken -- we're out of time have a great weekend, everybody!

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. welcome to be "squawk on the street." stocks look to ratify yesterday after russia indicates it's willing to send a delegation to misk for talks about ukraine couple it with echo data and the 10-year is above two we'll get to the latest out of ukraine an as russian forces continue to advance on kyiv. ukranian pre ukr ukranian president zelenskyy -- leading to the big reversal fo