global markets under pressure as investors weigh the financial fallout of russian invasions of ukraine and the west decision to cut moscow off from the world financial markets. this as the ukrainians hold off russians from the key cities both sides are set to meet today in the first face-to-face since the attacks began tf it is not just stocks. pa

palladium and corn and oil all surging in price today is monday, february 28th, 2022 you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. good morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan we begin with breaking news and u.s. equity futures pointingto sharper losses at the opening bell if everything holds in the opening bell, the dow would open lower by 440 the s&p down 67 points and nasdaq down by nearly 200 at this stage by the way, with these implied opens, we are near the highs of the session in many parts of the futures market on the treasury side, a return to safety u.s. government bond prices bid up in price. yields are falling right now benchmark ten-year note is 1.92%. 1.5% on the nose for the

two-year treasury. prices rising for u.s. government debt and safety pushing yields lower. energy prices volatile the u.s. benchmark up 4. ice brent crude is up $5 per barrel by the way, natural gas prices are up 3% right now as with well precious metals. comex gold is $1,900 an ounce. silver prices up 1.5%. $24.38 platinum and palladium palladium all 5.

and cryptocurrency on the down turn, commodity prices elsewhere some moves higher in bitcoin prices 1% higher for bitcoin. generally speaking, a tepid response from the cryptocurrency atmosphere ethereum is down $2,623 all of this action is coming as global investors digest the slew of actions put on by the west to russia cutting off from the s.w.i.f.t. financial system a messaging system it is the news that sent the russian ruble down 21% versus the u.s. dollar. u.s. dollar up 21% in value against the ruble. 100 russian rubles what it costs to buy one u.s. dollar it was close to the last week here closer to 75 to 77 rubles

if you look at the russian central bank which is forcing these moves here it is boosting key interest rate from 9.5% to 20% in a bid to defend that currency we havhave more with that with roger altman coming up you see what is happening in europe we have julianna tatelbaum in london with the latest it is out size losses especially in france and germany. >> it is, dom. good morning we are seeing widespread selling take shape in europe every major region is trading lower. the french market down 2.8%. italian down 2.5%. we have bounced off the lows of the day. the cac 40 was off 3%. a little bit of stabilization coming through we are seeing a little more

re resilience in the swiss market ftse 100 down 1.2% interestingly, we are seeing strong demand for defense stocks those stocks that will supply defense equipment, in particular, getting a boost on the back of the about-turn from germany pledging more military spending the banking sector heavy selling pressure in the european banks not only with the direct impact of the latest sanctions and how the european lenders are affected, but the second order impact of what it means for monetary policy. if we are poised to see economic pressure, will we see the european central bank hold off on raising interest rates? we have seen money markets push back expectation of the first rate hike from the european central bank higher rates is positive increases positivity

overall, dom, a negative morning for european stocks. >> thank you, julianna tatelbaum, live in london with the latest sticking with the top story. i invasion of ukraine for the fifth day. they will meet for the first talks since last thursday. this as ukrainian troops defending against the russian offensive in the capital city of kyiv and push back against the advance in the major city in the east of kharkiv. belarus led by the pro-putin president lushenko will help the allies here at home, president biden is set to hold a nato call at 11:15 a.m. eastern time to discuss the developments the united nations security council will hold an emergency meeting to discuss the crisis. all of this after russian

president vladimir putin yesterday took the unprecedented post-cold war action of ordering nuclear deterrent forces to be on high alert. this was in response to the sanctions by the west and nato powersmaking what he called quote/unquote aggressive statements russian troops are prepared for increased readiness to launch. this is part of the wider pattern of unprovoked escalation for more on the fighting in ukraine, let's bring in lieutenant general ben hodges. he is the chair at the center for european policy analysis a former commanding general of the u.s. army in europe and former commander of the nato allied land command as well. general, thank you for being with us here i just spoke a little bit about the current heightened tensions.

i use the word nuclear more than once is there any possibility -- maybe slight -- that this actually becomes a nuclear threat >> dom, thank you. for sure we are in a very dangerous period president putin has demonstrated he is going to do things that may be defy normal western rational thinking. russian doctrine we have known for years. russian doctrine says the existence of the state is at risk and we would consider or russia would consider the use of nuclear weapons. that is a wide range it costs him nothing to threaten the use of nuclear weapons it would cost everything if he deployed nuclear weapons i think president putin has miscalculated how the west would react to the threats i think we will stick together and that, in my view, will

reduce the risk of him using the nuclear weapons. >> general, isn't this a situation where the whole idea, theory behind this, and nato and the warsaw pact, was if everybody knows they have the abilities, nobody ever uses them because it is the deterrent theory the idea that france and germany and uk and many other european powers can actually have nuclear weapons put on their border or lands and then that means nobody really wants to use them you don't want to risk it. isn't that the scenario that is playing out right now? >> that's exactly it deterrence through the threat of nuclear force is designed to be the ultimate leverage. ag again, i think he miscalculated. he mentions the nuclear forces on high state of alert the alliance would crack and certain countries would repel and back away and not take part of the sanctions or not take

part in providing aid to ukraine. i think this is where we have to call his bluff we are not talking about a simple game here this is obviously very dangerous. yesterday's remembferendum in belarus, they would be a nuclear state and welcome russia in belarus. that is not a welcome development. the way you stand up to this is by sticking together the administration has done a very good job along with the leadership of nato and keeping everybody together >> general, one of the other aspects of this war, if you will, is the non-military aspect of it. the sanctions put in place we heard there are widespread reports now of protesters protesting the war and russian involvement in this. how much of that serves as a more forceful issue in the

conflict as opposed to the military threat by both sides? >> this is really important. the president of the russian federation and russian leadership have up until now probably felt confident they suppressed all of the protests and domestic troubles. putin spent the last two decades protecting himself against a coup i'm not predicting a coup, but the thousands of russians and in dozens of cities come out to protest knowing what would happen this is not insignificant. the fact you are seeing large protests across all of europe to include in germany and places like that, i think, demonstrates that the world is finally waking up to who this guy is. there is also another side and conscious of your need to be th about what happens after this. i think, honestly, the russian

logistical system will break down in the next five-to-seven days especially if we increase what we are providing we should they about what happens next the i t i think the recovering of ukraine which has been destroyed by russian forces and reopening ports and doing that as quickly as possible is important ukraine is the largest export of agriculture product for the middle east. we will have to get that going again. >> it will be a huge under taking for sure. ben hodges, thank you very much. we appreciate it. >> thanks for the privilege. back to the markets and assessing the impact of the sanctions on russia by world leaders. steeper losses as we prepare to kick off a trading week here let's bring in the managing dist director of equities

anneka treon, i mentioned with the general, it appears as though the sanctions are having more of an effect on putin's support base in russia than some of the military actions are. how exactly are markets handicapping all of this in real time >> it is indeed very challenging and confusing to rip apart what is happening from the human perspective and how one should consider that from the financial markets need to do two things we need to zoom out and what was the state of the macroeconomics prior to that. we need to zoom out to previous geopolitical tension events going back to world war ii and how markets behaved. going to the latter, markets have gone accustomed to dealing

with the tensions. you see it tends to be a knee-jerk effect it dwindles down three-to-six weeks after the initial hit. markets tend to go back to the macroeconomics environment to deal with the first point i mentioned, let's zoom out. where were we? we had the shortest, steepest recession in history triggered by covid that was handled with a rem remarkable response. monetary and fiscally. that led to reflation. we hoped to have goldilocks response what this war has pushed us over

the edge into is a more growth slowing regime where inflation continues to accelerate and trigger more buy and growth decelerati decelerating >> that is why we hear stagflation more in the financial universe right now how do we have a true stagflation? slowing growth and inflation >> yes, two points with that let's start with inflation many pundits were wondering the hawkish fed and will they change course over what is going on frankly, the fed is putting themselves out there the labor markets are strong enough financial conditions are not superior enough for them to change their course in regards to being hawkish what the war has done is turbo charged the inflation. looking at the moderate impact

of what we have seen so far, we think it is realistic for oil prices to be up 20% to 25% it could be double if this gets severe the fed is very much busy with getting this under control whether it is 50 points or 25 points they need to do that from the growth perspective, we he need to understand what we get from the global economies reopening. >> anneka, thank you we are all watching what is happening. macro for sure when we come back on the show, could the top number for oil prices and why the next guest says the prices could go lower over the next 12 months. and the humanitarian crisis on the border of ukraine and poland our own steve sedgwick is on the ground with the reporting and what it looks like

and later on, the decision of isolating russia from the international financial markets. we have roger altman weighing in we have a busy hour here when "worldwide exchange" returns after this movi es through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league!

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a check of the commodity prices.

brent crude $103 u.s. benchmark crude is up 5%. precious metals. you see gold prices right at $1,900 an ounce. up 1%. silver prices up 1.5%. $24.40 the last trade there. it. looking at soft commodities. wheat and corn and soybeans are on the rise. jumping sharply today. russia is the world's largest exporter including wheat. wheat prices up 5% corn prices up 3%. let's bring in bart melek. thank you for being with us. let's talk about whether or not we could see the prices to the up side last or has the top been

put in >> it very much depends on the s.w.i.f.t. measures that we brought on over the weekend play out. if they entail all of the russian banks and central bank and deny financing of flows of metal and if they are at risk of reacting with russian comm commodities or shippers. this could go a lot higher from oil to natural gas and metals. >> right now, we mentioned brent crude prices at $100 that is where it was during the crisis entering into what was happening with the invasion last week if you look at oil prices right now, is there a reason why maybe they are higher? we know the financial sanctions

and s.w.i.f.t. ban from russia does not include aspects for oil and gas. is that meant to maybe reduce some of the price volatility when it comes to fossil fuels? >> certainly that was what happened last week after the broad invasion of ukraine, i think m many people in the market thought the sanctions would be harsher. we know now they left out the oil sector and not all banks were included and oil dropped. now we're back again we don't know how far this escalates. this could be after a time more comprehensive set of sanctions imposed that do, in fact, target oil. that do, in fact, target all of the financial institutions and flows of oil get impacted. materially, we could still get a significant upside from even the

high levels. >> the uncertainty premium bart melek, thank you. on deck for the show outside of the global market turmoil, a humanitarian crisis is in full swing on the border with poland and ukraine. that is where we find our steve sedgwick steve. >> reporter: dom, we are at the main transit center for refugees crossing the border from the journey from ukraine we will bring you the latest from poland when we return on "worldwide exchange. ♪ feel stuck with credit card debt? move to sofi and feel what it's like to get your money right. ♪

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." humanitarian crisis in full swing on the 330-mile long border with ukraine and poland as thousands flee a country wide war zone steve sedgwick joins us from poland steve, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, dom we spent the last 48 hours checking out what is going on. we went to the border yesterday on the busy border crossing and what we saw was absolutely heartbreaking. we have been seeing women and children crossing the border although they don't need visas to get into poland, but it is a long while to check papers it is only women and children. there is a state of martial law

in ukraine volodymyr zelenskyy said if you are between 18 and 60 and you are male, wewant you to stay and fight. the state of the crisis is enormous the numbers at 140,000 refugees coming from ukraine in the last the unhcr, the refugee agency, said the numbers were up to 368,000. i spoke to samantha power. the former u.n. ambassador she is now director of the u.s. aid organization the $27 billion budget administration she said the scale of the crisis could get larger u.s. sent a disaster response team to the region as well as i said to viewers on friday, we have members of the airborne division from the 82nd and 101 who are here to help in the humanitarian situation how many refugees?

nobody knows the numbers bandied around are between 4 million and 5 million. we make those numbers because we know from the frozen conflict in the donbas in the eight years and annexation of crimea, over 1 million refugees left ukraine and now in poland. poland is already host to 1.3 million ukrainians the conflict goes on, dom, and the numbers will flow over the border to places such as where i am now. >> steve, it is interesting you bring up crimea. crimea and the outflow there was less about the military conflict that we're seeing play out in places like kyiv and kharkiv as well you have been speaking to the travelers out of there and people displaced -- how long do they expect to be outside of the

homeland and how long do the women and children expect to be in poland and elsewhere? >> reporter: they want to go home they are proud ukrainians. they are amazing people. they are tough i'm talking about women with children neigh high. walking 20 or 30 kilometers to get to the border and safety they want to go home to their country. a lot of them want to go back as soon as possible one chap left the conflict in libya where he had seen fighting most of his life to try to find a new life in europe he was north of kharkiv. he left. i said where are you going he had a ruck sack he said i had conflict in libya. i am here. now i'll try germany i tell you one thing as much as i see refugees one

way, i see humanitarian aid from the polish government and u.s. government and other sources a lot of volunteers. i'm beginning to see the first signs of the promised military support going the other way on the motor way into the region where we are, my camera crew and i passed 60 military vehicles in a convoy heading, what i thought was the ukraine border i heard reports that was a huge supply of ammunition going to ukraine. having to see. refugee going one way and the support the eu and world promised looks like it is beginning to go throug much-needed. >> thank you, steve sedgwick, from the polish-ukraine border stay safe. still ahead, the implications of the barring of russia from the s.w.i.f.t. system

igngill have roger altman wehi in on that story when "worldwide exchange" returns after this break alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league!

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hit vladimir putin and russia with the barrage of sanctions and cut off from the biggest lenders from the global s.w.i.f.t. system. it is monday, february 28th. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan we he begin this half hour withe breaking news on the ukraine and russia crisis. u.s. futures lower by 335 points the nasdaq down 200 points at this stage all of this is happening, of course, given the two-day rally after the first day of the invasion on thursday breaking news now on your screen we are showing you on the border of ukraine and belarus

talks between russian and ukrainian officials are set to begin momentarily. we will continue to bring you updates from the talks russian and ukrainian officials holding face-to-face talks to see if they can end the violence this is happening on the border of ukraine and belarus. we continue to monitor the developments around the increases sanctions from russia and global economic fallout. the russian central bank rose the key interest rate from 9.5% to unprecedented 20% in an attempt to fight an expected surge in not just inflation, but shore up the plummeting value of the ruble and prevent a run on the biggest banks. central bank is banning foreign selling of certain russian securities trading on the major stock index is also suspended for the day. the banks actions this morning

follow a decision from the u.s. and canada and the eu to freeze russia's international currency reserves and cut off the biggest lenders from the s.w.i.f.t. system which facilitates inter-bank transactions across borders. it is not just the sanctions pushing russia to the brink of global markets no norway's $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund will freeze investments in russian assets and divest from the country. bp will divest 20% stake in russian state company rosneft. one of the most highest holdings and the u.s. is restricting companies critical to the russian economy from raising

money through the u.s. markets, including gaszprom. the largest maritime and freight shipping company and rostelecom, the communications operator, all targeted by the sanctions. for more on the russian and global financial fallout from the moves and more, let's bring in evercore founder roger altman thank you, roger, for being here with us. >> good morning, dom >> sanctions we have spoken in the past about conflict over the years. how does this rate in terms of how you think the financial fallout will be and do you think it is enough to pressure putin into at least halting some of the violence and aggression? >> i don't think anyone knows the answer to the second question because putin makes all the decisions in russia and

whether he is susceptible to the pressures the sanctions unleashed is not known i don't think even he knows. having said that, this situation is unprecedented this is the most powerful set of sanctions ever assembled against an individual nation and, by far, the sanctions in particular against the central bank are remarkable and very powerful we don't have the precise data estimate as to the division of the assets between euro denominated securities and euro and other, i'll call them sanctions currencies probably about half of the central banks assets which are frozen are now frozen. in terms of the reserves, which is a good number, which is

effectively half of that that calls into the question of supporting the ruble in the long term that is the reason the ruble is selling off. we see the beginning of the bank runs and the sustainability and survival of the russian financial system is in serious question at this emplmoment >> roger, we are showing a chart of the u.s. dollar against the ruble. just below 100 rubles per dollar it was closer to 50 to 70. that is how many it costs to buy the u.s. dollar. take us through your estimate of what the russian economy could look like if this persists over the next two to three months >> the russian economy to start, dom, is relatively small 12th largest in the world and it

is frail it is natural resources dominated the economy which is the center of it these sanctions are going, i think, going to cripple the russian economy. it will be hard to -- the fall of the ruble means every russian import will be, at the moment, 30% more expensive it will be hard for many to purchase exports and i think it is a severe blow to the russian economy, including long lines of individual russians. your heart goes out to them. lining up to access atms great fears that we are reading about of whether certain global credit cards will work for russian citizens i think the russian economy is going to be severely damaged

i think you are seeing it right now. >> so, roger, before we let you go, this is very much about sanctions, not just the oligarchs. we talk about them as the direct victims of this whole thing. the russian people, main straight, if you will, in russia and parts of the other countries effected by this, are going to turn public opinion against the conflict hou how long do you think that plays out? what is the runway like before you start to see people return >> i think it will be evident, dom, this very week how severely damaging the sanctions are by the way, i don't think sanctions and putin and lavrov is significant knowing where the assets are they may be indirectly owned by others who knows? i don't think sanctioning the

oligarchs is the center of this either it is about the russian financial system it is about the currency collapse or severe fall of the currency faced with those, it is not possible for the russian economy to do anything but fall back fall back a lot. >> now, we also noticed, again, market wise, they have been reacting severely to this. the russian default is something people are talking about back in the day as a possible effect as a precedent. we have seen the cost of russian insurance to take out -- insurance against russian default is rising in price by a significant amount how much of that, then, play into the world financial markets and isolation of russia? if russia can't raise money, what can they do in the next five or ten years without any real access? >> i don't know about the next

five or ten years. i think it will play out quicker than that. the -- the -- the -- the global risk equation, dom, has risen rapidly in recent days in fact, the last 24 hours anyone owed money by a russian entity or has a claim on a russian entity has a difficult situation right now. if you are an investor, you want to be a little defensive this could be -- this is uncharted territory. >> all right roger altman, unprecedented situation for sure thank you for bringing your insight and all of the history that goes along with it. we appreciate it have a nice day. coming up on the show, more on the fighting in ukraine including cryptocurrency in focus. the potential price impact on the digital assets as russia

tries to skirt intensifying sanctions. we are back with "worldwide exchange" after this

welcome back bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies holding up through the weekend with bitcoin approaching the $40,000. they took a dip as the war in ukraine intensified. returning to $37,000 bitcoin a week ago before the

invasion of ukraine. let's talk about this with damanick dantes. we have seen a huge move in some of the trading volumes around this as the conflict has intensified. >> yes, it has been a lot of down side volume over the past few days on thursday, we saw a large up tick in volume which is a sign of capitulation. the low down move and it signals that sellers are washed out. we're not out of the woods yet we look at the long-term momentum which dipped negative support range is 30 to 35. you said 37. i would agree with that. we have resistance at 40 it has been a risk on asset. gold has out performed over the

year to date cryptocurrency is moving along equity volatility is on the down side. >> let's talk about the sanctions on the russian economy. every day russians we noticed and there has been reports out there this ruble denominated bitcoin transactions are surge ring right now. what does that tell you about the trading dynamic with regard to who is trafficking this over the ruble and bitcoin? >> it is tough to tell the data. i saw that data just earlier it says there is a flight to bitcoin. we spoke to our spoke people a lot of folks don't have savings. access to crypto is not as fluid as one expect. you probably think these are larger individuals we saw the tweet from russia's

officials saying they want to block access to the wallets and in coordination with the russians and ordinary citizens it is a crazy situation on the ground we are watching that closely >> how effectively could cryptocurrencies actually be in helping to facilitate transactions and helping them move financial value around given the fact we have sanctions in place sanctions that are maybe not directing oil and gas, but other aspects of the russian economy >> i know folks look at it as a separate payment source. it is moving value across the block chain. hopefully that will be recognized by the responding party. it is a separate network for payment that some folks have used the most part it has stored value. over time, they want to translate dollars or rubles to

bitcoin and hopes it appreciates. that's the expectation s.w.i.f.t. and others linked to the banking system is priority cryptocurrency is on the back bunker for now we see small spikes, but regulation is a head wind >> damanick dantes, thank you. >> thanks, dochl > dom and up ahead, we have victoria fernandez to talk about what you need to do with your money with the volatility. and during february, we have cnbc contributors here during black history month. how we can close the racial gap and income gap in america. >> i always hoped we would change the future of the black community.

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breaking news here live on your screen, what you are seeing right now, on the border of ukraine and belarus where talks between russian and ukrainian officials have begun you see movement there this is all taking place on the belarusian border. we will update you with major developments as we see them. talks now to try to impose some kind of cease-fire or end to the violence are now taking shape. we will have more details as we get them. futures suggesting more selling on tap for today we are well off the session lows markets have largely managed to push past the headlines from the ukraine conflict s&p 500 was up .50%.

let's bring in victoria fernandez. i guess the big question i have is a massive round of buying from the crisis lows that we saw on day one of the invasion of ukraine on thursday. what was behind it and was it justified? >> dom, obviously, when people are sitting there and cash on the sidelines, they know there will be volatility in the market we have talked about it all year we have been telling our clients we need to use the days where you see pull backs as opportunities to buy the names app and put them in your portfolio you saw the s&p go down at 4,100 on thursday. that was the opportunity for people to go ahead and jump in we saw futures would be way down and the cash market would open and the day the market turned positive as people got in and

started buying i don't know if we will see that today. the talks you showed that are beginning may boost the market on the open. we will see what happens i think that was a lot of source of the volatility with the headlines on geopolitical issues and opportunity to buy in the market >> buying on discount or buying on sale. we saw various parts of the market notably, mega cap technology and media and discretionary companies and small caps and technology what goes on the shopping list >> you have to look at a wide variety. you named a bunch of sectors that are available that's what you have to do look at the names on the shopping list that you want to own that you haven't been able to own and go after the names if those particular names are down. not everything goes down the same that's what we were doing. we bought apple. we bought some of those tech names down year to date.

7%, 10%, 12% at the same time, we went in and we have been overweight on value. want to continue to say we bought more cyclical names. we bought target annd walgreens and csx. those are sectors we liked all along. we used the opportunity to add to those names bank of america. conoco conocophillips you can see the names with the pull back and start building positions. >> victoria, what do you stay away from in this environment? >> you need to be careful of the extreme volatile names trading on headlines you want to get names that have the longer term investment don't get caught in a whipsaw moment >> victoria fernandez, thank you

very much. we appreciate it that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. futures implying an opening for the dow at 395 to the down side. s&p down 59. nasdaq off the low by 182. "squawk box" picksp e rk coverage coming up next.

breaking global market news. u.s. futures off to a rough start as the u.s. weighs the ripple effect of the sanctions on russia. eu and canada and u.s. removing russia from the s.w.i.f.t. system. we will have the details and why

this could hit vladimir putin and his allies harder than anything else at this point. p plus, ukraine and russian officials beginning talks at the belarus border it is monday, february 28th. tomorrow is march. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin joe was talking about the global phen phenomenon the dow was down by 381 points we should point that last week the market was f