session for stocks the dow was down by greater than 700 points a smidge more than that. it's come off the lows still down about 560 s&p and nasdaq remain under pressure the 10-year note yield going from 1.87 to 1.68. incredibly important to watch. i know you will. "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott welcome to "the xchange. i'm kelly evans. an ugly picture playing out in the markets today as fears grow over the future of ukraine the dow dropping 2% roughly 700 points dominique chu is standing by with more. we have rick san telly watching the plunge in the 10-year yield today. and brian sullivan covering the historic spike in oil prices dom, let's start with you. >> all right the markets with, as you can

see, in the red. and we can point out and focus on the dow specifically. for the first time in awhile, the dow has become the center of the out or underperformance. in this case, underperformance we're currently down about 1.2%. we were down roughly 756 points at the lows. down 23 points at the highs. so call it relatively flat we're tilted more toward the downside today the s&p 500 down nasdaq compos it down about 1% or 132 points. we also want to look at the macro market you mention the oil prices seven-year highs for u.s.-benchmark crude at $104.56 is off the session highs. still up 9%. over $106 at one point today you can see the spike higher in in the last couple of hours.

by the way, the gap between world benchmark prices, brent crude, and wti narrowed significantly. watch those crude prices they will reverberate throughout many parts of the market and then the big underperforming sector so far today has been a focal point for traders. as of late, given the sanctions regime in russia and ukraine that's happening with financial stocks big banks down 4%. bank of america down 4%. citigroup down 1%. remember, though, it's been an underperformer over the last couple of days after @disclosed about $10 billion worth of exposure to russian markets. regions financial outsized losers given the fall in yields and collapse in those yield curves or differences between long and short end rates financials a focus not just the money centered banks but the regional banks taking it more so on the chin today. >> dom, thank you. you've heard about it. let's talk about what is going on with yields plunging globally. the 10-year below 1.7% today

we'll get to rick at the cme with the latest. rick >> yeah. it's an unbelievable overnight session again in treasuries. look at the two-day of two of had year notes and realize in the wee hours of the morning before our time zone, we were up at 147 we're hovering at 131. if you move the year to date chart, you can see how much yields have fallen and such a short period of time consider this, on the yield curve right now, 2, 3, 5, and 7 have double digit gains and yields meaning investors are buying them because they're nervous where to put their money and we're even seeing the markets requesting something different from the fed here is 30s minus 2: it'ssteepening all curves are steepening. this is one month. i want to showcase this. the 30-years have been kind of the odd man out on the curve when i say the market is

changing its mind on the fed, when we were flattening dramatically, it's the market way of investors selling short and saying you're behind the curve. now there's a bit of reassessment we're taking some of the flatness away. look at bunds kelley referenced the worse price today. most negative is nine basis points we have settled under zero since february 1st if you look at one week of december fed fund futures, you can clearly see how much it's rallied. when it rallies, it takes tightening away. when it was at the low price close on the 14th, it was trading right around 98.32 that was implying 121 basis points of 168 basis points of tightening the current price in 98.79, that's roughly 121 basis points of tightening. you can dot math kelley, back to you. >> thank you very much the u.s. oil benchmark surging to $106 a barrel today as bp and shell announce plans

to end the joint ventures in russia brian sullivan is standing by with more on these price spikes. brian, what can you tell us? >> i think a lot of people are getting chumped up over the price. what a day today the price of oil dom hit it. let's talk about why oil prices were on the rise before putin started this war. remember that. so the trend was already moving higher now you kind of throw proverbial gasoline on that that's what you get prices above $106 a barrel. there's a very real supply concern out there. here is why. all the financial sanctions, not sanctioning gas or oil yet with russia but the financial sections has made it harder to sell russian oil around the world. there's a real fear that if you were to buy russian oil, you could be sanctioned. banks maybe don't want to lend the money. what does it mean? it doesn't mean that the third largest producer of oil in the world is offline yet. but there is a concern that russia could either come offline or go largely offline or make it

very, very difficult to buy russian oil legally. as such, you're seeing maybe some panic buying. people trying to stock up. china, of course, put numerous reports that russia offering china big discounts to buy oil guess what china and russia are like this china doesn't care what the rest of the world is doing. they want to get the oil so you take russia off or the fear of it and price the commodity rise you've got, as i tweeted out, you have the underlying options trade futures contracts the technical market set up. that's been the match that has sent the whole thing going up. will it last if you look at a futures, no we're in what is called back wardzation what does it mean? prices a few months out are lower than they are right now. meaning the market doesn't think, yet, these prices will stick. so there's what we've got going on right now by the way, keep all eyes on the

pipeline we talknord stream 2. we talk about that chevron, by the way, has a big stake in this. it's a pipeline to watch just any pipeline in that general region, kelly, is under worry. by the way, as gasoline prices up, you see a lot of people saying, well, it will be good for the ev market. i'll let phil lebeau talk about that according to ristat energy, the price of cobattery lithium has tripled more than a couple of months anything you want to make or power a car with, whether it's electricity, lithium, nickel, or gasoline it's going to be higher going down the road. >> thank you the market is lowering the odds of a rate hike at every meeting this year. they told "the halftime report ". he's not sure four or five will happen steve liesman has closer look how it's complicating the fed's

decision steve? >> yeah. kelly, the decline in yields brought on in part by the flight to safety is prompting a rethink of the outlook for the fed 50 basis points out for march and sixth hiesk in doubt fed funds trading 100% probably behind you in march. there's only a 10% of the hike being 50 basis points. there's high probablies you can see. but they're the certainty and those probabilities for july and november are down. for the first time in awhile, that six-like usually don't put it up when it's under 50%, you can see a sixth hike is priced out. it comes with a sharp decline. rick was telling you in bond yields take a look at the 10-year since the invasion began it's fallen from 2%. it was higher than that. now around 1.74% there's a quarter being down of it much seems like it complicates the fed's job. it's looking for tighter

financial conditions in the form of higher interest rates it's getting looser ones it complicates the fed's job by pushing roll over commodity prices the fed may backing off. the move in modesties threatens their hands. we've also seen powell will sit down for day one of two days of testimony tomorrow he'll signal the first set of rate hikes that march, may, and june ones are dbig despite the uncertainty. he might hold back offering too much guidance beyond that. if there's a bigger change, it would come in the fed on waiting on balance sheet reduction keeping liquidity in the market. >> good point. those are two levers they have to pull. it will be a big day tomorrow. we appreciate it i want to show you one other thing. this morning the ruble hitting an all-time new low against the

dollar 115. obviously we were down below a penny per ruble. i don't know what happened, but during the day, it looks like i thought, perhaps, the central bank came in yesterday to perhaps support it it looks like it let it go today. it was 1.10 was the low after the invasion it now we have taken it out. as high as 115 now 114. that's something to watch. could get worse from here, if the russian central bank cannot get access to its foreign exchange reserves. >> such a key point. we have the chart there. so everyone can follow along thank you. stocks are selling off on all of these concerns including that big drop in the 10-year yield. the dow is down more than 700 points ab and the lows down. s&p and nasdaq already down. one of my next guests is looking at names like nvidia and amd but not putting cash to work now joining me now is vance howard we're also joined by peter booth

guard. welcome to you both. peter, let me start big picture. the knee jerk assumption there's no way the fed can be as hawkish as they were previously going to be we see a lot of things moving in a way they would not welcome right now. oil spiking, mortgage rates falling, read real yields are plunging it could make the inflationary problems worse down the road. >> it's actually a step further. it's a stagflationary environment no one had on the set of any experience with if only paul voeckler was still alive, he could give lessons to the current fed on how to manage this i think the fed, you know, it's very easy to try to predict what they're going to do the rest of the year i think the fed is going to take it meeting by meeting. in the sense that they'll hike in march they'll hike in may. they'll talk about shrinking the balance sheet. then they have to make a decision about are they going to focus on the stack part, slow

down the economy as a result of higher prices, or focus on the inflation part and continue to tighten with that being a priority stable crisis bringing down the rate of inflation and their history, the current bet is to focus more on stock side and that's why they'll -- that risks accelerating the inflation side if they're not dealing with it. >> exactly we know, obviously, in the growth if there's an absolute crisis that changes the picture, we were talking about what we know for now and you have proprietary gauges of market strength let's call it. they're still not flashing a buy signal, are they >> no. they're not at all i would be cautious. it went negative on january 19th we started raising cash $5 million trade about 1.6 or 1.7 billion in cash now. we won't prolong anything until it's positive again. we have the buy list out we're optimistic i won't find a trend we have never fought the trend

in 2008 we were down 1.68. this market is negative. it doesn't look too good to us and sitting on a lot of cash feels good now. >> doesn't it? >> if you're not sitting on a lot of cash, you don't have the ability to participate in the opportunities that are creating themselves there's going to be wonderful buys when it turns around >>well, just real quick, to that pint, i mean, the difference between now and '08 is inflation is higher. so i know you're not really concerned about losing 3% of your purchasing power in a three-month period when you could lose 20% of the capital. at some point, if you stay out of the market too long, does it become a bigger problem? >> well, you know, like i said, if you're fighting the trend i would rather sit on cash than watch the stocks drop 20 rnt it's easier to come in when you have things like salesforce that is selling off it had a 30 to 35, 40% back. that's a lot better than losing money right now. and so, look, let the market reset. sit on your hands a little bit

sitting in cash for a few months before the trend changes up. it's prudent take the emotion out of this look at the negative news coming in i can't control anything i don't know where the market will go next week or year. we sit here now the trend is down and you're creating a situation with a lot of stress and buying into it. >> peter, what would you tell people as we head to the state of the union where biden will outline anti-inflation plans powell appears tomorrow. the big question whether he'll allude to backing off, or it safe, or not >>well, i don't expect any news by the administration to have any impact on inflation at all i think powell -- people think that powell is just going to weigh out his plans for the next year he's not going to do that. now he's, obviously, the difficult spot because of what is going on with russia i think if i were him, i would say i'll hike in march and maybe in may i'll talk about shrinking the balance sheet but not going to

commit to anything more than that it will be a play it by ear monetary policy. he doesn't need to say anything more there's a lot of time between the march and may meeting. there will be a lot of time between the may and the june meeting. he doesn't need to preskmit so much. >> you're recommending commodities like gold and silver that's different than what you're looking at, vance you're find almost value in names like salesforks, amd, commodities. >> like i said, we don't buy the trend. we let everybody else bleed out before we pick up the pieces we'll get it cheap the buy line turns, by the way we reentered the second week of april 2020 we were out near the pandemic. 60% cash near the pandemic when you catch the terms in the beginning move, that's when you make a whole lot of money.

it's a whole lot of fun. >> yeah. it sounds like you've been pretty good at it. what would you say to people who don't have the opportunity to ask you every day when you have gotten back in. >> don't buy the trend the trend is down. i'm on your show quite a bit so i talk about it quite a bit. i've been on so much with brian sullivan over the past two years. every time he gets me on and say i know what you're going to say. you have 73% outside, you'll win. when it turns negative, you have 73% odds you lose. i don't trade in odds like that. we're not in the guessing game we're in the odds game over here. >> and, peter, what is your final words to investors >> i think that cash is asset class right now. i still think that commodity prices are going to surprise to the upside and gold and silver, to me, is getting going. >> thank you still ahead, choppy trading for kohls after they gave better

than expected guidance the ceo joining us in a first on cnbc interview next. and oil soaring above $100 a barrel how much more pain we can see at the gas pump as prices hit are the highest level since the great financial crisis here is a quick check on the major averages the dow is down 673 points back in a moment (vo) right now, the big switch is happening across the country. small businesses are fed up with big bills and 5g maps that are mostly gaps— they're switching to t-mobile for business and getting more 5g bars in more places. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ultimate business plan... ...for the lowest price ever. plus, choose from the latest 5g smartphones— like a free samsung galaxy s22. so switch to the network that helps your business do more for less—join the big switch to t-mobile for business today.

i'm mark and i live in vero beach, florida. so switch to the network that helps your business do more my wife and i have three children. ruthann and i like to hike. we eat healthy. we exercise. i noticed i wasn't as sharp as i used to be. my wife introduced me to prevagen and so i said "yeah, i'll try it out." i noticed that i felt sharper, i felt like i was able to respond to things quicker. and i thought, yeah, it works for me. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

as a small business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving with comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. so boost your bottom line by switching today. get the new samsung galaxy s22 series on comcast business mobile and for a limited time save up to $750 on a new samsung device with eligible trade-in.

welcome back, everybody. despite the sell-off we're seeing some green in retail. a few names rally in sympathy with target today. kroger, dollar general, and costco are seeing decent gains kohls has seen a nice job on the back of earnings it provided a bullish outlook and raised the dividend and announced a buy back program it comes as retailer has been under pressure from activist investors who pushing them to consider e sale. joining us now is michelle gass. >> thank you for joining us here today. a big day for your company when you're talking about earnings but also when you're looking forward to the year ahead. i want to start sort of with your strategy going forward. particularly as there have been discussions as your company has admitted about potential buyouts, potential takeovers,

the board discussion you've turned it down offers for $64 or share saying it didn't value the company enough but how would you explain that to shareholders when shares are trading just below $56 a share now. why is your strategy going forward better than a sale at those offers great to see you again, courtney first off, let me say the results we reported today we're proud of 2021 was a fickle year for the company. one of the key objectives to restructure this company more profitable growth and on the profitability side, the team has made tremendous progress we delivered record earning $7.33 against what was the all-time high a couple of years ago in 2018. i think importantly our confidence and conviction in strategy, as you mentioned, is our capital allocations strategy doubling our dividends at $3 billion share buy back program, and a billion dollars this year.

and i think importantly, we are now set up for profitable growth we have initiatives we've never had before so as we look ahead, sephora the new brand and the like and, you know, as it relates to the offerings you mentioned. first, let me say the board is deeply involved in there and takes its fiduciary responsibility very responsibly. we start with a plan we mentioned we see a lot of upside value and return to shareholders the board is testing and manufacturing other paths up against this plan. we're highly engaged in terms of bids coming in pro active outreach let me say the thoughtful approach i'll end where i started, which

we have great convention in the strategy we put out the capital allocation we'll return back to shareholders. >> you mentioned that. obviously, increasing the dividend you're doing the buy back program. have you had discussions with your biggest shareholders about the board's you put up compared to the activists put up? do you believe that shareholders are sticking with kohls' vision? >> well, what i would say is i talked to our shareholders all the time we have a lot of their support they like our capital return allocations strategy, believe in our strategies ahead, and as it relates to the board, i mean, what i can tell you is we have an incredible board. it's refreshed we run on six new members just in the last three years with diverse experiences. we have great balance in the 10-year and the new board members coming in. three of those six actually came through the settlement with the

activists last year. so i think this board is incredibly well equipped to guide the strategy of the company going forward. >> michelle, your inventory you mentioned on the call didn't come in as planned largely due to what was going on on the supply chain and the disruption they're in. particularly affecting the women's category which is very important to you you believe once it normalizes, you can better capture the demand again how do you ensure that customer will come back they weren't disappointed in looking for something that wasn't available in the most recent quarter. >> yeah. so, i mean, it's important question we serve $65 million customers we have a great loyal customer base and we have been navigating this supply chain, like many, for across the entire year and in q4 in particular. we did have more unexpected receipts during the holiday season they came in a little too late and our private brand that was what was most affected including

businesses like womens we have done a lot of course correcting the team got after it last fall in terms of our spring receipts those are flowing in we're more bullish on the year we guided 2 to 3%. as you can imagine, the merchants are buying lots of inventory and continue to maintain the great disciplines the women's finance, in particular, it's early days in the year we did share that we expect a full year to be positive 2 to 3% overall. that will likely build as our sephora shops are built occupy the early signs are promising. we're at the early stages but lots of fresh receipts and looking forward to a strong year for the company overall and all of our businesses. >> before we let you go, michelle, can you give us a glimpse into how coles is dealing with inflation going forward. what your expectations are and what customers should expect to pay, frankly, that they come into the stores and shop join

loop if. >> -- online i think everybody is impacted by the pressures today. i would be remiss to say there's a lot of things to be unsettled about. our hearts and thoughts go out to people impacted around the world and in ukraine so that is something deeply concerning for all of us as it relates to your question on inflation, i mean, this was something we're dealing with before it's probably only going to get worse. in terms of kohls, inflationary pressures are contemplated in our guide. i'll first start on the margin side the team has done a lot to mitigate those pressures with have a solid pricing promotion strategy we've been working on the sourcing that's in our guide from margin standpoint then as it relates to kohls stands for value i think one of the points that differentiates kohls is we have

a broad portfolio. we have aspirational national brands and we've got the entry price point private brands if you take denim, which is a trending category now, we offer levis and sonoma jeans national brands price their goods to be competitive and we have strong models to make sure we're relevant to the consumer it always starts and ends with the consumer and i think with the team has demonstrated is, you know, in every moving environment we can be agile and responsive. >> there's certainly are a lot of moving parts in today's market and in the retail business michelle gass, we appreciate you joining us here today. ceo of kohls leave it there and back to kelly. it's a busy day in the markets. >> absolutely. thank you very much for joining us ahead president biden's address looms tonight. how he intends to battle inflation. as we head to break, check out the dow which is heading toward session lows now down 7389. levels

we've seen of the day. chevron, home depot, walmart, salesforce are the only names in the green now. more than a 2% drop for the s&p. for the dow. 1.5% for the nasdaq. back in a moment elf.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire what does the future of strength look like?

it's dynamic weight that adjusts for you in real time for a more efficient workout. and you can only experience it... (sigh) on tonal. ♪♪ municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free, now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-376-4376. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income...are federally tax-free... and have historically low risk.

call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-376-4376. that's 1-800-376-4376 welcome back, everybody. we moved just the past couple of moments to a fresh session low the dow is down 765 points bob is here with more. >> only good news is in the commodity complex. new highs all over the place you knew that, of course, we had the ceo here down for the new york stock exchange this morning. the old apache conocophillips

has new highs. they have the high beta names. same with the other commodity group materials as we like to call them. some of the steel stocks also a in the new high. statement we're seeing yields plummet and, of course, this is a big problem for banks. noted this morning after the open jpmorgan a 52-week low rather shocking to see that. citigroup is essentially at a 52-week low. that's been an underperformer for awhile huntington the major what we call super regional banks down 7 to 8%. this really complicates the situation for jerome powell. the key story, of course, is tomorrow's testimony from mr. powell i've been calling it threading the needle here. right now he wants rates higher and not lower. there's more premium in bond prices but now has a stagflation issue, potentially he's got to talk about slower growth of course, growth is part of the mandate. the fuel mandate versus the inflation issues the market has come to believe

that there is likely going to be fewer rate hikes than people thought a month ago. that's sort of what the market wants to believe we have to see powell indicate it might be the case and remember what we've seen so far in 2022, we've seen lower earnings growth and significant multiple compression throughout large parts of the market. i want to point out big names and i'm not just talking about some small tech names. big names are down 25 to 30% in just the last 8 or 9 weeks or so 3m, starbucks, home depot, nike, this is significant damage to the market and we need to find some way to sort of stabilize those stocks remember much has happened in january. largely as a concern over the fed's rate hike path not since the ukraine. it's been the rate hike path it helped drop a lot of those stocks kelly, back to you. >> thank you very much we'll get to the cnbc news

update oil traders say that russian sanctions are creating problems for huge pipelines carrying crude from kazakhstan to a russian port on the black sea. traders said buyers are avoiding the oil bauls of difficulties getting insurance for the transport out of russia. united nations said more than 660,000 refugees have fled ukraine. toland has received about half the number refugee camps have been set up around the country they said ukrainians will be given the right to stay and work for up to three years. the cahn film festival taking a stand against the russian invasion of ukraine. organizers are banning official russian delegations from attending this year's festival, unless the conflict in ukraine ends on the news tonight, the new phase of russian attacks and how president biden may step up the pressure on russia in tonight's state of the union address tune in tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern. >> thank you very much still ahead, pump prices hit a 14-year high already this

week that was before oil surged today. that means they're going even higher how high we'll dive into that next on "the exchange. movi es through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league! ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

worker's comp was about 20% of my total expenses. i needed a worker's comp policy that wasn't going to strangle my business. when we got the quote back from pie, it was a sigh of relief. we did it online, and it was done very quickly. we saved about 30% when we switched to pie. working with pie was extremely easy. i can grow my company while not breaking the bank. ask your agent, or get a quote at easyaspie.com.

eye. welcome back, everybody. the price of gasoline already at the highest levels since 2008. the national average around $3.61 a gallon for aaa and with oil risings again today, my next guest said prices are going even higher joining me now is andy lippaou if nothing else happened, what would the price of gasoline be >> we would be looking at a low of $4 a gallon even just in the last two days, future prices are up 28 cents a gallon that doesn't include what has happened over the last week. >> wow you think we're heading to $4. can anything head it off would it refresh our reverse on the oil price. how quickly could we see $4 a gallon at the pump >> it will happen over the next couple of weeks. consumers this week will be shocked to see increases of 10 to 15 to 20 cents a kbal as the

wh wholesalers are lifting higher price gasoline as we speak. >> where do you think the prices will go up the most? >> well, i think they'll go up the most, really , across the country. the price rise of crude has been indiscriminate with the wti rising as well as brent prices rising the consumer will feel the pain across the country. >> interesting like you said, it's not as if it's one -- it's not a supply or a pipeline issue so much as the price of crude we saw the coordinated release of 20 or 30 countries of barrels from their strategic petroleum reserves it did nothing to quell the upper move in oil prices. >> the tools the government can use are limited. they could suspend the federal excise tax on gasoline at 18 credibilities a gallon and extend the federal excise tax on

diesel at 24 cents beyond that, they're limited in what they can do i think there's going to be a lot of pressure on opec tomorrow especially saudi arabia, kuwait, united arab em rates to increase the production yonld the agreed upon quota. >> would a windfall tax, what affect do you think it would have on pump prices? >> i don't think it'll have much of an impact the opposite will happen our producers will slow down on the production the high prices are really really good news for the drilling industry to get more oil out of the ground. but that's the crux of the problem that we need more supply, especially when the market feels there could be a supply disruption out of russia. >> sure. do you know where demand is? at what level for gasoline >> i think we've seen in the past $4 a gallon will do it. we look at california where prices are already $4.70 plus.

those prices are heading to $5 a gallon we can expect to see the demand destruction especially in california start really soon. >> yeah. absolutely andy, good to have you on today. thank you so much. >> thank you andy lipow coming up, stocks are getting hit hard today ahead of president biden's first state of the union speech the rules ukraine and inflation will play in the address ahead as we head to break, take a look at the chip stocks, which are doing pretty poorly today. amd down almost 7% 'rba ia art laggd. wee ckn moment e a life insurance policy you no longer need? nowe you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or

call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire eye. welcome back, everybody. a familiar bright spot on the down day cyber stocks are in the green. dom chu has more. >> a volatile session but over the course of the last three or four trading days, ever since day one of the ukraine invasion by russia on thursday, there's been a lot of focus on the

cybersecurity stocks if you take a look now, it's been volatile in trade soggy far today. palo alto networks, fortnet, crowdstrike among some of the well-known days. that's after a massive surge in the value. some off the lows we saw on thursday and now the overall trend for the industry has been to the downside decidedly over the last several months here. one of the big etfs that tracks it it's the crimecyber h.a.c.k. or hack over the year to date period, it's been down and then up sharply. if you look at the particular etf, since the lows that we saw on thursday, it is now up 15%. so four trading sessions so cyber continues to be a huge focus for many as they watch the developments happening on the ground between ukraine and russia back over to you, kelly. >> thank you coming up, president biden set to deliver his first state

of the union address tonight the role inflation could play in the speech and the midterm elections. that's next. watch the event live on cnbc special coverage shepard smith sttst 00.meaerar a8: p. stn time back in a moment

welcome back not just russia top of mind for the state of the union tonight inflation a huge concern elan moi is joining us now with more >> reporter: the president's party loses seats during a midterm election rising prices could make this november even worse for democrats. take look at what is known as the misery index a simple measure of unemployment plus inflation right now about 10 last time it was this high heading into a midterm election was in 2010 within when republicans seized control of the house and president obama dubbed it a she lacking. as we know, it took another decade for democrats to take back the house now i asked one front line lawmaker, congresswoman of pennsylvania, if democrats have been too slow to react to inflation. here is what she told me. >> i can say this democrat definitely recognized the

inflation right away and talked about it again, whether it was considered to be transitory or long-term inflation, it doesn't matter to the person who is, you know, experiencing an increase at the gas pump or an increase at the grocery store. we need to take all of these things seriously and address them as soon as we see them. >> so this is the challenge for the president during his state of the union tonight he has to try to empathize with families on a budget while trying to tout his economic successes. striking that balance will be critical to the fate of his party come november. >> thank you very much ukraine expected to, a key focus of biden's speech. my next guest said russia's invasion changes not just ukraine but shifts u.s. foreign policy joining me now is resident fellow at harvard kennedy school institute of politics. jerry, great to have you here tonight. it's not going -- obviously history taught that lesson what should we be listening for?

>> well, to state the obvious, it's not the speech joe biden thought he was going to be delivering even two weeks ago. and to further state the obvious, the backdrop is going to be as dramatic as i can remember for any state of the union since 9/11, i would say. and i think on ukraine will have to start by walking a tight rope convince americans he's doing enough to help the ukrainian people, and i suspect americans are both sympathetic with him and inspire bid what they're seeing the ukrainians do now while also convincing them he's not going to stumbleinto a direct military conflict with russia or get involved directly on the ground in ukraine that's a tough balance to strike that's what he's going to have to do. and then as your reporting has been suggesting all afternoon, he'll have to con front, i think head on the reality of what is happening in ukraine is going to make the inflationary pressures in this country worse. tell people they need to be prepared and have something to say about both what he would do to lessen inflation, and what he will do to help people cope with

inflation. >> and any sense of measures that might be taken to lower the gasoline price >> well, there's not much to do. right. you heard democrats talk about a moratorium on the federal gas tax. that gives you 18 cents a gallon or so. it doesn't feel a lot in the face of $4 but that gives you 18 cents a f gallon doesn't feel like a lot. you can release more petroleum from the strategic reserve what republicans want him to do but he probably won't, is talk about ways to expand drilling and production of oil on the continental united states, but even that is a longer term proposition. not a next week kind of proposition. the truth is, i think his options are limited. >> a lot's been made of the response to the ukraine crisis and the split in the republican party is quite marked. but it also seems to me that the response from the democratic side arks back almost back in a way to what we heard from republicans early in the bush years.

it feels like this realignment where president biden is out there talking about how we have to be a force for freedom in the world and that's exactly the language president bush used in his second inaugural and we saw iraq and afghanistan and everything that happened since so it feels like it's shifted and i wonder what the long-term consequences of that will be >> i think you framed the challenge. this is an opportunity to be stirring and inspirational about the need for the u.s. to defend democracy and freedom around the world. by the way, at least implicitly push back against the tendency of both parties that says the world doesn't need america's leadership joe biden, his view, the world does american leadership and we can now see that th that's the opportunity i think the challenge is again to convince americans there's a way to do that without creating another long-term foreign entanglement people don't want another iraq,

afghanistan, 20-year involvement. we have to worry about russia again. we have to worry about nuclear weapons and we have to worry about the state of the north atlantic treaty organization so this is a big moment for joe biden. i think the advantage that he has is he will be talking his own book he is an internationalist and believes in alliances and believes the u.s. has a role to play particularly in times like this. we'll see if he can articulate that in a way that sets people's minds at ease. >> neil ferguson this week suggested the president though only has days to prevent the ukraine situation from becoming a quagmire literally hours and days to defend themselves when they were under attack that was not a country we were required by any treaty to do so. do you agree about the urgency of the situation in ukraine and do you see the international

response response meeting that need >> i think the situation is pretty dire because you have every evidence to think the russians will simply get more brutal if they couldn't take what they wanted in ukraine the easy way, they're going to do it the hard way. i think we're seeing that in kyiv and elsewhere around the co country. is the international community doing enough probably not but at this point, the options are limited. the u.s. is trying to get more military assistance in poland is helping provide that over land. it may be that what that evolves into is a very long, protracted, urban warfare situation in which the ukrainians are fighting for themselves with limited help from the outside not a very satisfying picture. probably one that ought to worry putin though and i think that's something president biden can also point out tonight >> great to have you on today. thank you for your insights.

markets are lower across the board today. the energy sector is even lower despite those surging oil prices you can see here every sector is in the red including energy. there are other commodities seeing boosts though we'll dive into that next.

hancock, you sign first. no king? gentlemen have you taken leave of your senses. who... who are you going to bow to? no more genuflecting? the people shall have the right to vote. even the stupid ones? yes! stupid people vote? yes! arghh! ♪♪ franklin! hey, i left my cane in there. what? what do you mean? hey! that's an expensive cane.

chef, can we hire another hostess? umm... psst. yeah. i was gonna add an exclamation point. secure payments, the tools you need, people who can help, we do that. hey businesses! you all deservepayments, something epic!you need, so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

stocks are selling off, but gold is up 2% as investors rekindle their appetite. >> and there's no doubt that you have stocks extending their loss like you mentioned as well as investor anxiety ramping up right now. just over the past week, the precious metal has rallied in response to russia's invasion of ukraine. we've seen this before april futures are up over 2% right now heading towards a 1.5 year high close today and the

gold shares, the largest gold etf is up over 1%. even inching closer to 2% with trading volume closer to its 30-day volume. one driver, the fifth biggest sovereign gold owner, russian central bank, said it would start buying gold yesterday on domestic markets after a two-year hiatus. you can see the divergence on your screen between gold returns and the s&p 500, but there are some reports that warn these purchases could mean russia will be selling gold soon why? because they need the cash as the country remains isolated from crippling sanctions that cash could help if the ruble continues to fall further and many investors are turning to gold as costlier commodities like oil adds to fears of accelerating inflation even when you compare it to other safe havens like the yen, the u.s. dollar as well as the

swiss frank that you can see on your screen now, gold still shines or outshines. >> how does that stack up against other metals, whether precious metals, industrial metals other key commodities. >> we've seen a higher trajectory for palladium and silver none to the extent as we do with gold copper's been doing well previously i would have said that's because of the clean tech push, but it has to do with a short supply you have russia that is a major commodities producer and if you're not getting some of these commodities and precious metals from russia, that's going to affect supply chains around the globe. so it is helping a lot of precious metals at the moment. >> it's one of those where normally we'd read it as a strong sign for demand now taking us back to the bad old days in the pandemic thanks so much again, gold, a bright spot today in what's been a pretty bleak

market that old pair coming back to the floor. that does it for the change, everybody. "power lunch" starts right now and welcome, everybody, to very sobering session of "power lunch" as the markets decline and ukraine comes even harsher assault. stocks are way off on wall street, dropping very sharply. the dow falling more than 780 points at the lows of the session. now up just a little bit from there. nevertheless, down 700 points, more than 2% oil prices are rallying. crude surging past 106 a barrel at session highs earlier today there you see west texas right now at $104 a barrel this of course prompted by russia's assault on ukraine. that is the highest level for west texas since 2014. now, bond yields are sliding and big time the ten-year yield falling fast and hard