that old pair coming back to the floor. that does it for the change, everybody. "power lunch" starts right now and welcome, everybody, to very sobering session of "power lunch" as the markets decline and ukraine comes even harsher assault. stocks are way off on wall street, dropping very sharply. the dow falling more than 780 points at the lows of the session. now up just a little bit from there. nevertheless, down 700 points, more than 2% oil prices are rallying. crude surging past 106 a barrel at session highs earlier today there you see west texas right now at $104 a barrel this of course prompted by russia's assault on ukraine. that is the highest level for west texas since 2014. now, bond yields are sliding and big time the ten-year yield falling fast and hard, taking bank stocks

done with it remember we were at 2% just a couple of days ago now we are down .3 at 1.69 market reporters tracking the moves. pisani at the nyse santelli at the cme and pippa stevens is at the commodity desk bob, we start with you >> we're still sitting at the low os f the day and the only one who's happy if you're long is if you own commodities. metal stocks have been rallying, hitting new highs including companies like freeport. whole parts are at new 52-week highs. devin energy tech is down, but holding its own. the real problem is in the financial sector now, we had been talking about the problems with the banks new lows, j.pmorgan, citi, and many

of the regional banks, but we're also seeing declines in other part of the financial sector to give you an idea of how heavy the trading is, let me show you heavy volume etfs. it is very rare when the most traded on a percentage bases you see commodities like the oil fund bloomberg. a collection of various commodity futures. and then you see treasury etfs the three to seven-year. these rarely show up on heavily traded, but you see today. the story is simple. they're trading a lot of commodity complex and a lot of the treasury complex and that's what's showing up. i mentioned the interest rate sensitive. besides banks having problems, there's a number of other groups that are interest rate sensitive that you don't think of. charles schwab, very unusual that's interest rate sensitive

because it is bank like qualities because it has a bank associated with it the trust banks like state street or north trust. and even some of the asset managers like henderson have been down as the interest rates move down. is there anything that's moving up besides the commodity complex? think of who might benefit from a lot of chaos and heavy volatile in trading. how about a big market maker, virtu, for example 52-week high one of the biggest market makers in the world makes markets in hundreds of different sectors all over the world. tyler, back to you >> thank you very much let's get to rick santelli at the cme where the yield on the ten-year touched its january low. rick, what's going on? >> absolutely. tyler, it's every part of the curve. the short maturities are every bit as in focus as investors try to buy anything of high credit

volatility tens haven't been at this level since early in the year as you see on this chart year-to-date and tyler, it could get worse and i'll tell you what people are talking about that are trading my sources that energy is a big chunk of this ugly invasion story and it isn't only what you pay for gasoline or natural gas to heat your house or heating oil to heat your house. natural gases for businesses pvc for crude oil. pretty much every single thing we touch around us has an energy cost built into it think germany and think their manufacturing, what their costs could be doing and how things could get more dicey with regard to european energy prices. i'm going to go quickly on fed funds. take the contracts and show you there's a lot of nuance to this. we'll keep it simple this is the march contract think 100 minus 25 basis points.

for may, 99.46 for june, 99.35. july, 99.26. see the way it's bunching up which would equal 99 and a quarter or 25? what we're seeing is buying that is potentially taking some fed off the table, but not the first two or three tightenings back to you. >> making a strong case there. talking about inflation. do you see it going away in 2022 i sure don't rick, i don't think you to either look at all of those commodities including the constituents of fertilizer, which include natural gas. some of those come from russia fertilizer that's going to raise food costs here in the united states even more oil prices sky rocketing as you probably know. new seven-year highs there pippa? >> an explosive move higher today for oil with prices now at the highest since the summer of 2014 at the highs of the day,

u.s. oil surged 11.5% to 106.78 per barrel again, a price not seen in more than seven years it has eased off that level slightly and is at 103.97. brent crude traded as high as 107.57 now up 7.7% at 105.54. supply disruption fears are growing as the fighting intensifies and in an effort to curb the spike, the international energy agency announced a release of 60 million barrels. this is just the fourth coordinated drawdown many the dproup's history saying the situation in nenergy markets is very serious and security is under threat the market didn't really respond and prices moved higher following the announcement bob jaeger noting this will do little to absorb loss from russia which produced about ten

million barrels per day. turning to the mpact on energy stocks, the group is back in the green. occidental and apa are leading the way with chevron and exxon also moving higher back to you. >> i'll take it. thank you so much. with oil prices spiking and reits dropping, the fed's inflation strategy may be shifting let's bring in richard fisher. great to have you on a day like this and there's two schools of thought here one is that of course the fed is going to come off the boil a little bit and the other is that no, the water just got hotter. >> i haven't felt at all despite the comments from the president of st. louis bank and the governor who came from the st. louis bank thatwe would ever contemplate 50 as the first move i do think we'll hear chairman powell speak before congress on tomorrow and thursday, but i would be surprised if they didn't just move 25 basis

points, follow through as the beginning of a possibility we went through this, by the way, when i joined the fed in 2015, starting in june of 2014 under greenspan's leadership when we had the fed funds at 1%, we started beginning of 19 consecutive rises in the fed funds rate got up to over 5%. 5.75 as i recall took a little time to do that. over two years and only then was beginning to impact the economy and bring inflation down which was much over 4% before it peaked so they're on this path. i wouldn't respond to what's happening in ukraine mainly because we don't know how long it will last it's enormously uncertain. obviously it's very tragic but these kind of commodity price peaks and also what we're seeing in the energy sector are likely to be transitory. the question is for how long

they're underwriting more expectations, which is what the fed has to manage, too the expectation of consumers and behavior of businesses >> if i'm understanding you correctly, you're saying because it takes so long for monetary policy to impact the economy, they can't just hold off for now to see what happens with ukraine. >> i don't so. i don't think it's very likely i wouldn't rule it out entirely, but i think it's a small tale of this that they wouldn't move it's the beginning of several moves by the way >> sure. >> as rick pointed out by the way, rick doesn't have enough enthusiasm or energy. >> yeah, we've got to get him some red bull, that guy. get an iv of red bull. mr. fisher, can we pause for just a minute because we have some headlines from cleveland fed president in just now. she says the ukraine situation adds upside risk to inflation

and puts downside risk on the current growth forecast. so i assume you kind of agree with that. i don't see inflation abating much in 2022 i think the pressures from supply chain, from this attack in and war in ukraine, and all of the things that are going to ripple through the economies of the world isonly going to put higher floor under inflation and it is probably going to at least clip global and u.s. growth by some percentage points >> well, first, i hope -- hold loretta in very high regard. i think she's correct on this front, but there are two sides on the other side, we have the situation which is, hasn't changed with ukraine, russia

that is that labor has negotiating power here and you have additional regulatory emphasis by the biden administration and you have the green agenda, which adds to cost those are not temporary transitory factors and yet the labor situation is serious right now. the rate is extremely high we have more people looking for workers than workers looking for jobs and that's a sustainable inflationary force until it turns. so these are the kind of things the fed has to worry about rather than the urgent situation we're seeing right now, additional push on the supply chain. >> very good point the only place it seems workers aren't winning right now is major league baseball. they don't look like they're going to win in that deal. but we'll find out maybe we'll know later today richard fisher, thank you, as always great to have you with us. >> always honored to be on your show thank you very much. still ahead, we're tracking the market selloff and the latest developments in ukraine a geopolitical expert will tell

us why he thinks the conflict is about to escalate even more. let's take a check on bank stocks the big banks and regionals all down sharply this afternoon as bond yields slide. if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech. for insights on when to buy and sell. and proactive alerts on market events. that's decision tech. only from fidelity.

we are tracking weakness in a number of travel related names

including hotel and booking sites. also, marriott, hilton those were trading at 52-week highs as recently as february 16th, so just a couple of years ago. now, the u.s. airlines also under pressure with united and delta roughly down 10% in just two days alone american and southwest are trading lower. and we're going to end on the cruise line operator down between 5 and 10% today. norwegian down six, royal caribbean down nine. carnival down eight. >> now to the latest developments out of ukraine. kharkiv being hit by intense shelling satellite imagery appears to show a miles long caravan of russian military forces snaking toward kyiv. ukraine says russian troops hit a tv tower or right next to a tv tower in the capital city. ukrainian president zelenskyy

appeared to the e.u. to allow ukraine to join the 27-member block, telling official, prove you are with us. let's welcome ariel cohne who has met with putin in the past good to see you with us. >> it's a pleasure >> let me start with mr. putin because there are, there's growing chatter that his isolation over the past two years may have affected his decision making and i certainly note that in meetings not only with foreign leaders, here with emanuel macron, but also with his own intimates, his own seen yore advisers, he sits at a great distance from any and everybody. what does that say to you about his state of mind or his state, there, he's talking to his own generals and he's 30 feet away what does that tell you about his state of mind? what's he afraid of? >> look, mr. putin is described

as increasingly strident when i was in the meetings with him back in the past, he had this sarcastic sense of humor, but now you can see he was intimidating his own senior officials like the head of foreign intelligence, general narishkin, he looks like a man in the hurry. he's puffy his face is puffy. i have some medical background and i read a lot of speculation about his state of health and he looks like somebody who's taking steroids maybe we do not know if he has a terminal illness or not, but he certainly looks like a man in a hurry and a man who keeps his associates in a great state of fear

beyond that, i think the push into ukraine under the slimmest of pretext about ukraine being ruled by nazis or ukraine planning to have nuclear weapons or nato deployments. this is fantasy. it's a cover up for an invasion in which civilians are killed again and again including children >> so let's -- >> there may be investigations of war crimes that will implicate senior russian officials just as the malaysian flight in 2015 this, too, may be a reason to investigate war crimes >> so as we look at a leader who is seemingly, increasingly isolated, may be on steroids for

goodness sakes, is observing an invasion that is moving at a slower pace presumably than he expected you have a presumably somewhat paranoid individual who is getting frustrated what could an escalation look like and is the use of a tactical nuclear weapon a so-called battlefield nuclear weapon, is that out of the question here? and what would it do if it comes into play? >> look, nobody used a nuclear weapon since hiroshima and nagasaki in 1945 i did not think as someone studying russia for the last 30 years, i do not think we'll get to that, but i did studyrussia military doctrine and it talks about escalate to deescalate if things in ukraine go wrong, if we see increasing in which we

already see, young russian recruits, 19 and 20-year-olds without preparation being thrown against highly motivated ukrainian forces, i do not exclude that russia, just to intimidate the west, and to break the spirit of the ukrainians will use weapons of mass destruction either it's going to be a nuke, tactical nuke, or emp, electro magnetic pulse whether they're going into outer space to take out our gps satellites or a massive cyber attack on the united states. at this point, with that leadership, i do not exclude, unfortunately. >> and let me just go there because you took us there. if any of those things happen, an attack on cyber space, our

assets in space, the use of a nuclear weapon, could nato still stay on the sidelines? wouldn't those be acts of war as would be potentially a collision between turkey and russian wars warships in the bosperou, which turkey has closed. >> again, we see unprecedented things in a very negative dynamic. a dynamic that is dire, in certain respect is worse than the cuban missile crisis look, i picked up a lot of chatter in moscow when i traveled there before. a big war that they were planning against ukraine about a cuban missile crisis style moment that they need to get on the same level with the united states to be taken seriously whatever that means. to have a new deal about global spheres of influence like

stallen and churchill did in 1945 but what you mentioned, the massive cyber space attack may be an act of war, less so a tactical nuke in ukraine because it's not the territory of nato and our european allies are not prepared and have no appetite to fight russia i'm very surprised how much unity nato demonstrated so far with the sanctions and keep in mind another very important thing that a lot of people cannot sort of walk and chew gum in terms of foreign policy we need to keep our eye on the ta taiwan straits and on china while this thing hits fan in europe we do not want to fight china

and russia at the same time. it would be unprecedented and extremely challenging economically and militarily for the u.s. and our allies. >> thank you for your time today and your observations and your pick up of intelligence when you were in russia a couple of years ago. turned out to be presh the situation in ukraine to be a huge topic addressed tonight at the president's state of the union message. cnbc will have special coverage of that. shep smith will anchor it. it begins at 8:00 p.m. it will include the speech and the gop response yields are falling across the board today. ten-year plunging almost 20 basis points it lowers thmaorage tge rate we'll talk about what this will mean for the housing market, next want t o feel your heart beat faster? drive an electric car. where the loudest sound... ...is the beat of your electric heart.

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mortgage rates due to the crisis in ukraine and a resulting run on the bond market they loosely follow the yield on the ten-year after rising sharply since december, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage made a u-turn yesterday and just kept going. falling from 4.18% on friday to 3.9 today. that is one of the biggest two-day drops of marcho of 2020 this will give home buyers more purchasing power heading into the spring market, but it's going to add fuel to the fire under home prices which just set another record up over 19% in january from a year ago according to a new report today from core logic the largest annual jump since they began tracking prices 45 years ago. the question is, how long and how low will this reversal go. rates are still influenced by

the fed's pullback >> and the question is how much this might spur activity in the housing market >> that's all going to depend on supply right now when you see these lower rates, it's going to mean more people are going to rush to get back in and take advantage of those because they know they're going to go back up again, but there's so little supply out there and again, prices are high bidding wars are going to be the name of the game so we'll just have to wait and see. >> thank you very much let's get to rahel >> here's what's happening a russian working at the united nations will have to leave the country. in addition, 12 russian diplomats at the u.n. will be expelled moscow radio station that's been critical of the russian government has been taken off the air. prosecutors accused it of reporting falsehoods it had been one of the few

independent outlets they had been tolerating. ukraine asking to remove russian domains and shut down key servers. that could take the entire country offline. they're reviewing the question and have no further comment. po opponents say cutting off the internet would make russians more dependent on state tv at the metropolitan opera last night, the ukrainian national anthem brought the audience to its feet you're now up to date. >> one after the other after the other. all these international organizations. thanks very much just crossing the wires now, russian president putin putting in currency controls, issuing a decree that bans foreign currency exports from russia in amounts exceeding $10,000 from the second of march. that's tomorrow. that's coming from the kremlin, which says the rule applies to cash ahead, more on this big

market selloff as the dow stumbles lower war, inflation, interest rates, supply chain, everything else, there's a growing wall of worry. what the biggest market risk right now is we'll be back in a few seconds b! - [announcer] bito, the first u.s. bitcoin-linked etf.

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we've got about 90 minutes left in the trading day, which may be a relief to many. let's get a check on stocks, bonds, and oil and everything seeing big moves bob pisani is back >> as we mentioned, the only people happy today are those who are long commodities and commodity stocks because throughout the morning, right at open, new fresh highs on all of the big energy complex names conoco, chevron. ceo was here this morning. apache, conocophillips new highs on the commodity sectors like freeport. they've been moving up in the last three days. now the dow's about 150 points off of its lows, but it's really struggling because of the financials

so i mentioned jpmorgan had a new low, but amex down $14 you put these four stocks together, this is 300 points down these four stocks are half the 600-point decline we've been seeing i know everybody says the s&p's only 10% off its highs and that's true, but there's tremendous damage done in big cap names outside of the technology complex noting all day some of these names. salesforce down 32%. intel, 32% even disney struggling still with the theme parks in december and january, down 28%. caterpillar, 25% starbucks, 3m, home depot, all down 25 to 30% tyler, got to go a long way to get back to new highs for these companies. remember, much of this damage was done in january with concerns over the rate hike path for the federal reserve.

jerome path has a tough road tomorrow >> the basic math, if you lose 50% on a stock, you've got to double or go up to 100% to get back to where you were now to the bond market where the ten-year yield is around 1.7%. rick, it has been a wild, crazy day. >> it really has i mean, the number of sessions i can remember where you see a three-year note down close to 20 basis points two-year note down to 15 the ten-year note you see on the chart down 13 and if we close below 170, it's going to be the lowest yield close since the 4th of january here's the point of this spot. it isn't only the u.s. the stencil of that chart you're looking at is what every major economy's ten-year sovereign looks like look at bunds. they just flipped negative it's now the lowest yield close since the 26th of january.

here's the u.k. gilt canada still trading at a 11 yield. it's on pace for the lowest yield close since the 13th of january and normally, flight to quality, flight to safety is dollar yen the yen this time not so much. here's a one-year chart. as you can see, it doesn't look like a flight to safety, but let's put it this way. looks nothing like the next chart. here's the dollar index on pace for its highest close since june of 2020. tyler. >> thank you very much rick santelli. oil is closing for the day after spiking to new seven-year highs during the session pippa stevens at the commodity desk >> we've got the closing trades for oil and it is settling below the high of the day, but still sharply higher wti is aup 8.2% after early

hitting 106.78 brent crude advancing 7.1% to 104.94 now bank of america putting a number on what a total wipeout of russia's energy exports would mean for oil and again, we are nowhere near this, but they said that for every 1 million barrels per day that's disrupted, that's equal to a roughly $20 move in oil. so if russia's 5 million barrels per day are cut off, the firm says prices could hit $200 some experts are saying demand structure is the only thing that can alleviate the move higher and that might not start to kick in for another $20 more. the national average now at 3.61 according to aaa that's the highest since july of 2014 back to you. >> thank you very much our next guest isn't just focused on inflation, but also liquidity risk ceo and cio of morgan creek

capital management good to have you with us what right now is the liquidity risk and why are you focused on it >> yeah, i think the biggest risk the markets have had, past tense, been grappling with, was the fed withdrawingly liquidity from the markets by raising rates. i'm thinking that's off the table now. unlikely we're going to see much if any rate hikes over the could you rephrase tcourse of the year part of that is the gdp growth numbers are collapsing earnings estimates are collapsing and people are coming to the realization that the base effect of the lockdowns, kind of the recovery after the lockdowns, is really all that a lot of these big growth numbers were so one of the things that i find really -- >> excuse me for interrupting, but are the liquidity risks rising or falling if the fed is going to not put its foot on the brakes as harshly as many people

say? that would suggest the liquidity risks are not as great as they might have been. >> great point, tyler. liquidity risks for equity investors are falling. when i talk about bigger liquidity risks, i'm talking about financial repression we've been in a state of continuous financial repression since the crisis artificially low interest rates. punishing savers at the expense of spenders and i think that's about to continue. for us, one of the biggest challenges for investors is to put your money in something safe cash, money market, bank account. cd you're making zero literally close to zero. after inflation, you're losing 7% of your money so we launched an etf called csh to try to address some of that by using arbitrage to get some return to the savers >> it's always a tricky thing to

give people a return on their cash without exposing them to too much risk in order to generate the returns on that cash so where would you then be hunting around the market for opportunity? >> yeah. look today there have been a number of places to hide chinese tech stocks had been beaten down dramatically last year they're up today and up for the year when u.s. markets are down digital assets bitcoin, one of our favorite assets up smartly today about 7% up positive for the year with the markets down about 10% so there are places to hide. you just have to look kind of beyond the norm. gold miners. another great place to hide. gdx i think up over 4% today and gold miners are not only cheap on an absolute basis, but they're cheap relative to gold gold has been stuck, being i guess manipulated by futures markets for a while and so we think gold is underpriced, but

hard assets, commodity prices, you heard bob pisani talking about that it looks like a time to focus on hard assets as opposed t financial assets >> let's talk a little bit about the one you mentioned and that was bitcoin, which has been sort of counterintuitive because i think of bitcoin as kind of being tethered to equities if they go down, it seems to go down but here today and elsewhere recently, you've got bitcoin and other cryptos moving up while equities move down why has that correlation turned faulty >> you know what's interesting, you look at long periods of time, which is really the only way you should think about correlation. i see people talk about correlation periods as short as 30 days. kind of a meaningless statistic. you need to look over long periods of time and bitcoin is actually 0.0 correlated to bonds

and 0.15 correlated over equities over its whole life in the short-term period, you can get high levels of correlation partly because the marginal participate in the bitcoin market unfortunately bought on leverage and when you get a big drop in equity markets broadly, people get a margin call. they're forced to sell what they have to sell as opposed to what they want to sell. over longer periods of time, you see the normal course of returns generating the, in the asset, focused on that. so if you think about the stocks and bond market, those are, the returns are generated by economic growth, interest rates and corporate profits. bitcoin has nothing to do with any of that. it has to do with technology, millennial adoption, regulatory changes. all of that makes it a perfect diversifier for your portfolio >> let's talk a little bit i'm dying to ask you more about why the hell i should get into

chinese tech stocks or whatever you said not for me, baby, but let's talk about commodities and i'm not saying, you may be making a brilliant point there. is the best way for the average individual to play that to go into an etf? if so, do you have any >> yeah, it's a great point, tyler. trying speculate on individual companies is really hard you take some of the companies that people think of as oil companies, the big, diversified majors part of the problem is half their business makes money when oil prices rise. the other half loses money when oil prices rise. the refining businesses. we really like etfs lixop, a brd holding of oil producers we like oih, which is the oil services companies oil services have been underinvested in over the past cycle and we think they're poised for real nice growth. >> mark, thank you very much for your discussion today.

appreciate it. >> thanks, tyler thanks, kelly. still to come, crypto is one bright spot. the digital coin holding up today, especially after the kremlin just announced capital controls, surging back above $40,000. besides oil, other commodities higher wheat up 5%. soybeans, gold, silver heading higher target higher on strong earnings in defense, lockheed martin and miners are some of their energy names. so are the green spots in this red day today. we'll be rig bk.htac hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers

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the question is, will you be part of the 80%? do you know what the future holds? welcome back, everybody. one of the few areas of this market that's holding up with the dow off the lows by the way down 534 we were down more than 750 early on bitcoin, ethereum rallying more than 10% in the past week. the ukrainian government soliciting donations let's bring in brett harrison, president of the crypto exchange we've seen it be a force for

good we've seen it be a force possibly for bad maybe there are some russian oligarchs trying to get their fu funds out of the country especially if there's going to be capital controls. what does it reveal to you >> really two aspects to this story here first, as a decentralized medium of exchange, we're seeing the power of crypto currency unfold in realtime. people are all around the world are able to contribute crypto directly either to the ukrainian government through their public addresses they posted or to relief organizations that are on the ground helping out in the situation in ukraine more than $20 million worth of bitcoin, ether, stable coins and other crypto assets have been donated in this way. we think that's probably behind a lot of the rallies we're seeing in crypto on the other side of it is people saying that crypto could be used as a way for for example, individual to avoid such sanctions >> largely untrue to this point.

why is that? >> so in order for people to be able to convert their currency into crypto or to the off ramp and take it off the exchange and go to fiat currency like ruble or dollar, they have to go through some exchange that's regulated to be able to interact with a bank and so through exchanges, we have a number of sophisticated tool sets that allow us to understand who are sanctioned individuals, sanctioned nation, be able to track crypto currency and deposits and withdrawals and make sure we block those users as we have been been doing since our inception. >> so there's no way for them to get access to the crypto without going through those channels can you speak to activity today and the last couple of days on your platforms where is it coming from? who's buying how large with the transactions? >> sure. in general, we're seeing a lot of what we typically see every day. large institutions making plays either in one direction or the

other. most of the volume comes from institut institution ly kwidty. we're going to see increased interest in trading the assets >> let me a question that may be tricky and may be proprietary. what have you had to do in light of the sanctions that were announced over the last week or so in terms of being in compliance with them that's number one, and have you, to your knowledge, had to block or stop any transaction as a result of those sanctions? >> right so first, cryptocurrency exchanges like ftx are required by our dfl regulatory authorities that we operate under to monitor and have in real time government international sanctions lists and make sure that we block any transaction whether that be crypto or fiat in and out of the

platform that's something we do every day. as these lists get updated, we're automatically making sure we're blocking those transactions, those users. we're also in close contact and have initiated contact with the u.s. government, the treasury, the fed, making sure that we are engaging in dialogue with them to find out what the best course of action is for us to make sure that we're complying with the situation as it continues to unfold in real time. >> but can you answer my second question, which was have you had to block any attempted transaction in or out so far as a result of these sanctions? >> so while i can't disclose any of the specifics that are going on on the exchange, i can tell you that every week there are transactions that we have to block either for one reason or another, usually related to something on the sanctions list, for example. this is something that all crypto exchanges have to face, is people trying to use the exchange for illicit activity and it's what we're doing

extremely well with the various sets of tools, things like chainalysis, and also just partnering with these partners have the up to date lists and sanctions checks to let us block these transactions >> i hear you say you're blocking transactions one way or another for outlawed parties every day, every week, and presumably this past week as a result of the new sanctions in place. brett harrison, thank you. >> dying to know how they know who the beneficial owner is of an account because a lot of these would be in, i assume, it's not just, you know, viktor yanukovych. >> going to put this name on the wallet >> going to put his name on the crypto wallet. >> at least the blockchain has a way of tracking, history or other related purchases. >> more on the sell-off, looking at some of the stocks across the board. retail, apparel names like macy's, gap, foot locker, look

at those slides there. declines, down 29%, some of them in the past week we'll be back with more on this remarkable day in the markets. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades.

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ahead of jay powell's federal reserve chairman's two-day testimony before congress starting tomorrow. what you have is a situation where the ukraine conflict with russia, the war that's happening there, is not just forcing the flight to safety that we're seeing in interest rates right now and we're going to use the ten-year treasury note yield as a proxy for that 1.71%. you can see that steep drop. people bidding up the safety of u.s. government debt all of this as a time when oil prices keep going higher commodity prices for things like white and corn are going higher as well. the oil chart on the right over there, how do you do this? how do you kind of justify or right-size this kind of debate that's happening with regard to whether or not inflation is the bigger concern, because it erodes purchasing pricing over time, or whether or not it's the flight to safety right now, what it looks like from at least a break even perspective, the inflation expectations over the last five years are still holding just close to the highest levels on record so all of this is happening --

>> this is the key, i'm so glad you're showing this. >> what is the fed going to do >> this is the key data point, right here >> i would say this. fed fund futures are already pricing in not the likelihood, slightly higher expectation of maybe no interest rate hike in march. >> let's give you a 650-point down marker now as we head into the final hour of trade today. thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. thank you, and welcome to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen here at the new york stock exchange. february's volatile market action carrying over into a new month in a major way stocks are under serious selling pressure yields are plunging. and oil is surging as the world watches ukraine. >> and i'm mike santoli. let's look at what's driving the action the focus remains on eastern europe as countries and companies ramp up pressure on russia amid its sustained invasion the russian stock market is closed again today, but russia focud