>> this is the key, i'm so glad you're showing this. >> what is the fed going to do >> this is the key data point, right here >> i would say this. fed fund futures are already pricing in not the likelihood, slightly higher expectation of maybe no interest rate hike in march. >> let's give you a 650-point down marker now as we head into the final hour of trade today. thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. thank you, and welcome to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen here at the new york stock exchange. february's volatile market action carrying over into a new month in a major way stocks are under serious selling pressure yields are plunging. and oil is surging as the world watches ukraine. >> and i'm mike santoli. let's look at what's driving the action the focus remains on eastern europe as countries and companies ramp up pressure on russia amid its sustained invasion the russian stock market is closed again today, but russia focused etfs are plummeting.

commodities are seeing severe moves with wti crude sitting a seven-year high, topping $100 per barrel while gold, crypto, and agricultural products get a boost. target is the stock story of the day as shares jump on an earnings beat and an optimistic growth forecast. >> energy is the only positive sector right now we're all over this market sell-off for you throughout the show also ahead, rbc's ahhelima croft will break down the market plus, important earnings after the bell including salesforce, sofi, amc, plus instant analysis let's get straight to the market action major averages deep in the red on the first day of march. we're off the lows still a pretty heavyselling pressure wrrg what are you watching >> wide daily ranges continue. that is the big takeaway low conviction levels among investors and i always say, the market has to move prices far to find investors, buyers, or

sellers with conviction. that's continuing again today. we didn't threaten last week's lows 4150 on the s&p 500 was the thursday morning low we were a little below that in the futures market so we still have a few percent of cushion, still consistent with the idea of a kind of ugly, uncomfortable bottoming process that might have begun in late january, but a lot to prove on the upside not much lift at all it's also been a tough start to the year for the average balance investor, asset allocator, 60% stocks, 40% bonds. that's the traditional retirement portfolio mix look at the vanguard fund. only a few times in the last dozen years have you seen a two-month decline of 6% in this particular portfolio as we have seen in january and february of this year. as a matter of fact, you see it's gone all the way back to the beginning of last year, basically flat on a one-year basis, and that's something that i think creates less of a buffer in the markets investors who have bonds that are not helping out because they

have been declining in value over the course of the last several months, you have less capital to work with, less ability to rotate into equities. however, investors in bonds are getting a reprieve today bond yields are plummeting as a matter of fact, it looks like a buying panic in treasuries in the two-year note yield, this is one very sensitive to estimates of how much the fed might hike rates and raced up this was the fed's pivot in here last fall when we basically had to ramp up the expectation for tightening to fight inflation. we have peaked out here, you know, well above 1 .60, and now we're down, got below 1.3, so clearly, estimated rate hikes are coming out of the market but kind of for the wrong reasons, because inflation and expectations of inflation continue to rise pretty high >> it puts powell in an even more difficult situation than before because inflationary pressures are worse, and now you have the stagflation, the slower growth problem the atlanta fed basically says no growth in q1 of this year >> first quarter, yeah it is a tricky spot, although it

takes away some of the suspense about march. we were talking about half point increase in march. that's now looking like a quarter point, maybe a couple rate hikes and wait and see as opposed to pricing in six or seven this year. >> yeah, maybe why technology is not underperforming. >> getting a reprieve, yeah. >> let's get to washington for the latest on the war in ukraine. kayla tausche here with a look at what we know this hour. >> the pentagon says russian troops are regrouping after a large convoy was stalled outside of kyiv. a senior defense official saying the russians will likely change their tactics to regain momentum with the capital still in their sights but russian troops are having difficulty finding fuel, food, and morale, according to these officials, is low. in kharkiv, a missile bombed freedom square, killing at least seven civilians with the u.s. suggesting russian troops are encircling that city, the second largest in ukraine president zelenskyy, in an impassioned plea to european union leaders today, asked them

to approve an expedited membership process for the country to join the bloc the european commission is assessing that possibility meanwhile, global energy prices are soaring as canada and other countries begin cutting off russian oil imports. in response, iea member countries announcing a coordinating release of 60 million barrels of oil onto the world market about half of that will come from the u.s. strategic petroleum reserves the department of energy says it's prepare today do more as necessary. president biden today spoke to ukraine's president earlier for about 30 minutes president biden wearing a blue and yellow tie, a color many lawmakers are expected to wear at tonight's state of the union. pledging solidarity with the country and pledging more defenses as needed sara >> kayla, thank you. kayla tausche. president biden is expected to address the crisis in europe in that state of the union address tonight. so be sure to watch cnbc's special coverage, hosted by shepard smith, starting 8:00

p.m. eastern >> oil, as kayla mentioned, surnling today to its highest level since 2014, even after the iea agreed to release six60 miln barrels from the reserves. joining us is the founding partner of again capital what is the market telling us here a 9% move higher why are we seeing that right now? >> it's just terrific concern over the ukraine situation, sara this is reaching a point now as the footage comes in, the timing of the eia announcement today was ill timed because just as that came out, we saw that television tower area get struck by a missile reminding this market we're on a path here to greater conflict and ultimately, the market is already starting to believe that oil will be sanctioned oil from russia will be foreclosed from the global market here at some point. we're already seeing commercial activity reduced, particularly

as it relates to russian exports via maritime assets, and that is already hitting the market and these are barrels that we cannot make up, so that's why this market is on tenterhooks and jumped so high today >> because i was going to say, it's jumping even though we have seen the power stop short of sanctioning oil directly so what are we talking about, john what is the expectation for how many millions of barrels come offline a day from russian energy production? >> well, at least several, so the export about five. 1.6 million goes through a pipeline from russian directly to china, so i think the market is fairly assuming that supply will remain steady and online. will the chinese are making some interesting noises themselves and are backing away from some other commodity purchases from russia already as well but this is all because of the banking sanctions. you have major banks that will not finance these transactions

you need letters of credit, financial support to facilitate the maritime sellings and maritime sales of russian oil. the commodity trace houses are being forclosed, the banks are not helping, so that is going to potentially keep 2 million to 3 million barrels at least of russian oil off the market to the extent the financial sanctions do a back door and run around trying to allow the oil to flow. >> john, what can we read into some of the other price signals in this market, specifically obviously near term crude, spot crude up above $100 a barrel it's $15 above where crude futures are for next summer. so severe backwardation, concerns about near term supply, but does that suggest that this short term move is potentially looking a little overheated? i'm also looking at the fact the crude price is way outperforming the energy equities today. as a matter of fact, oil services stocks down 3%. we talk about demand destruction or maybe this is something of a bit of an aggressive upside move

in near term crude that isn't sustainable? >> great observation, mike it's exactly right we're in a severe backwardation, which is a very bullish, hyperbullish term structure for any commodity market what it's saying is there's a siege mentality right now. there's worries about potential, potential shortages developing so every barrel on the market today is highly prized and highly priced now. what it's also telling you is to the extent there's a diplomatic climbdown, any easing of this tension, of these tensions, yes, the price could ratchet down to a great degree as quickly as it has ratcheted up unfortunately, though, we're set up for, as the headlines keep rolling in here like we saw today, that we will keep ratcheting up higher and higher and you'll see that backwardation become even more severe what it's telling you that supplies aren't necessarily

tight yet, and they certainly could easily ease down the road, but for now, it's a siege mentality. >> so opec plus meets tomorrow, john, to discuss options on policy that typically includes russia what do you expect opec to do next >> well, it will obviously be pretty bizarre having russia there in the midst of this then again, they're also currently chairing the u.n. security council these are strange times. i think it's time for saudi arabia to step up and be the friend that they always claim they are to the united states, and quite frankly, to their other customer base, particularly in asia, where these high prices are now going to be very harmful to the economies of japan, south korea, china itself, india, and even of course our own economy so the saudis have it within their power to snuff out some of this rally that we're seeing, for sure they could easily put another million to 2 million barrels a day on the market with really almost the flip of a switch.

that's what i think they should be talking about bdoing and acting towards and be more pro-west and pro-ukrainian rather than their business partner, russia. >> it might catch the market off balance the way it's standing right now. john, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thank you after the break, much more coverage of the sell-off on wall street we will ask cfra's sam stovall if he thinks it's safe to jump into this market as we head to the break, check out the defense stocks, adding to recent gains. lockheed martin, northrop grumman and l3 harris all up you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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powering possibilities™. a volatile day for stocks yet again with all of the major averages moving lower into the close at this point. for what he's watching, let's bring in cfra chief investment strategist sam stovall great to have you here so many things moving around and trying to assimilate in this market you have a pretty weak start to the year, two months with significant monthly declines january and february we have got the typical dynamics of how a market absorbs a 10% correction or more and then of course, you have the way markets tend to behave around military conflict, geopolitical stress. as you put all that together, what are your main observations about where we might go from here >> i think if you look first off to history, history tells us that we have normally seen market declines in the first quarter of years following gains of 20% or more

and that all of those 20 observations, we got back to break even before the year was out. however, this is the sophomore slump year of president biden and typically, volatility is 40% higher in that year than the other three years of the four-year presidential cycle add in the current events we're seeing now, history typically says you're better off buying than bailing when it comes to military conflicts, but of course, there are exceptions look, back to 1956, with the suez crisis and the russians rolling into hungary to crush the hungarian uprising, and we end up with a deeper decline that takes longer to recover >> you know, sam, since we're going back through history, one of those years that gets mentioned a lot when we're talking about downside risk to the market outside of a recession is in the early '60s, 1962, you had one of these years where the economy was still

expanding. of course, at the end of this year, toward the end, you had the cuban missile crisis is anything similar to this setup becausia have heard that invoked? >> absolutely. first off, you have a first-term democratic president in their second year in office. you have inflation being a major concern because the reason we slipped into a bear market in '62 is president kennedy really pushed back on u.s. steel from raising steel prices and therefore beginning to fan the flames of inflation. also, you then had the military pensions that culminated with the cuban missile crisis in many ways it's similar. not exact, but i think certainly similar. >> so you say there's an opportunity in certain stocks, especially ones that provide income in the form of dividends. tell us how you would be looking for that >> sure. hi, sara first off, i think income investors should be thinking like landlords, not like traders.

you don't want to price your unit on an hourly, daily, or weekly basis look for those companies that pay a nice dividend yield but also are consistent in terms of paying those dividends and have no problem with those dividends going up every year. so i did a screen on our market scope adviser platform looking for those companies who have buy or strong buy recommendations that are paying a dividend yield of about 3.5% or more, and have an s&p quality ranking of b-plus or better. and came up with several non-master limited partners such as names like amgen, believe it or not, biotech area blackstone, conagra, philip morris, so quite a few names that are attractively yielding for investors who want to buy for the longer term. >> if those are the types of stocks, sam, you actually think are ripe to perform well in this environment, i mean, does that

implicitly say that the more speculative areas of the market that have been knocked down so much remain kind of off limits for now? or is it just a different mode we're in >> i think that also depends on the kind of investor you are if you happen to be an investor who wants to really take advantage of things that are being beaten down, well then you probably do want to be looking to some of the semi-conductor areas. those that have fallen the most, those subindustries within the s&p like auto manufacturers, home furnishing as well as i.t. consulting these are companies that have really been beaten up. and certainly, there could be opportunities there that you might want to do some bottom fishing. but for somebody who is looking to have a little safer route, i would say focus on high quality, high yielding stocks >> those semis are getting hit again today. down today thank you for joining us >> we have 40 minutes to go

before the bell. take a look at the market. we are off session lows but still pretty heavy selling the s&p 500 down 1.5%. the only sector still positive is energy. real estate trying to go green here, but everything else is down financials hardest hit, down 3.7% the nasdaq holds up better but it is down 1.4%. >> coming up, travel and leisure stocks are getting wrecked in the sell-off we'll explain how geopolitical tensions are hurting that sector, and we'll focus on the big sell-off for banks and ask an analyst if he sees the pullback as a buying opportunity. as we head to break, check out some of the top searched tickers on cnbc.com. ten-year yield, no surprise, back on top after a huge move today. buying bonds those yields shoot down. 1.7% they were even lower earlier also on the list, target, which is surging today, up almost 11% on its investor day and earnings tesla, oil, which is also surging, up 8.8%, and the russian ruble, which continues to get hit, down 7% right now on

top of a more than 20% decline yesterday. we'll be right bk.ac

welcome back to another ugly day here on wall street. low of the session was down almost 800 points on the dow we're now down about 583 if you look, it is a sea of red. all the sectors in the s&p 500 down except for energy there's that pop of green, after oil prices rally about 8% or 9%. financials are the hardest hit at the bottom of the pile. materials, technology, industrials also down there with it tons of uncertainty to deal with from higher oil prices and how that feeds into inflation, fewer fed interest rate hikes. you got this ferocious rally in the bond markets which would normally help stocks, but the fear is slower growth at a time of higher inflation, and that's a bad mix. >> i also think it's conspicuous when energy stocks are up. >> meantime, travel stocks are

getting hit particularly hard today. seema modi as a look at how the tensions in europe are hitting that space just when people were getting excited about the outlook for travel this year >> mike, that's exactly right. a lot of it has to do with the energy picture as well travel and oil prices tend to have an inverse relationship, specifically the cruise lines. fuel is their second largest expense behind labor historically, making up approximately 20% of their operating cost in 2019, carnival, which is on track for its worst day in three months, spent about $1.6 billion in fuel, and that number is expected to rise for all the cruise lines as they bring more ships back to sea. elsewhere, we're looking at airlines on track for their biggest two-day loss in nearly a year and also worth noting the move we're seeing in some of the hotel and booking platforms. airbnb shares, guys, trading higher today on a day where hotel and expedia booking names are trading down likely on this idea, mike, that

as geopolitics continue to rise, more travelers will want to stay closer to home >> and therefore benefitting airbnb as happened in the pandemic makes sense. seema, thank you >> still ahead, much more on today's sell-off and where you can find opportunities in this uncertain market we'll ask wells fargo's scott wren and alley mccartney what they're advising clients to do >> as we head to break, here's a check on bonds yields falling sharply again today as investors look for safety in treasuries the ten-year briefly falling below 1.7% a little bit above there right now and the two-year note down to 1.31% we'll be right back. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates,

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down 607 on the dow, 30 minutes left of trade. let's check on individual market movers shares of foot locker dropping again today after a rough week downgrading it to neutral, this on the heels of news nike will be pulling product from the retailer as it ramps up its own direct to consumer efforts foot locker is down another 8% or so. a rough ride since earnings last week two movers in the supermarket space. upgrading kroger to outperform, citing strong confidence in the omni channel growth, evercore adding kroger to their outperform list, saying it expects to see a beat and see tailwinds from inflation separately, albertsons also higher today after announcing a strategic review of its balance sheet and capital returns

strategies those stocks are both up today jim cramer talking about kroger and albertson in his investing club earlier you can sign up by heading to cnbc.com/jointheclub kroger reports on thursday what's interesting to me about these two notes is they both highlights kroger's digital strategy, which it never got credit from the street on. it was always, well, amazon is a competitor it's going to eat its lurch. they don't have to worry about profits. kroger will have a tough and slow time. the fact they are noting that there's traction there and they like the strategy is interesting. >> it got to a certain level of scale. consumer behavior changed enough they're getting recognition. that's the kind of market we're into the street now likes supermarkets, it's a bit of a defensive market at the moment time for a cnbc news update with rahel solomon. >> here's what's happening at this hour. the world court will hold hearings on ukraine's case against russia next monday and tuesday. they could order immediate steps to protect ukraine ukraine filed suit arguing that

russia's claim that it entered ukraine to prevent a genocide is false. >> president biden giving a hint at what he'll cover in his state of the union address tonight during a lunch with reporters, biden said the one thing he can share is his focus on a united opposition among the u.s. and its allies of russia's invasion. biden said that unity will force putin to reconsider his actions. >> and the white house has released a list of guests who will join first lady dr. biden to hear the state of the union speech they include intel ceo pat gelsinger and facebook whistleblower frances haugen >> in texas, voting is under way in the first state primary in the 2022 midterm elections they're picking nominees for governor, attorney general, congressional seats, and more. sara, back to you. >> rahel, thank you. rahel solomon. >> we are got just under 30 minutes to go, 28 minutes before the bell here's where we stand in the markets. watching carefully today because the dow reached session lowed around 1:30, down almost 800

points we're still down 600 or so the s&p down 1.6%. sell-off is accelerating as we head into the close. every skter down except for energy dow tracking for its fourth negative week in a row only tuesday up next, we'll discuss whether or not investors should feel safe buying this dip >> plus, crude oil touching its highest level since 2014 helima croft joining us with her talk on how oil prices could go. we're well above $104 now. "closing bell" back after a moment

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we have about 24 minutes left of trading. stocks plunging today. oil prices shooting higher and treasury yields also sinking joining us now is scott wren, senior global market strategist at wells fargo and alli mccartney, managing director at ubs. good day to have both of you on. scott, you think the market is in the process of bottoming at these levels why? >> we think so, sara and let's face it, we're not sure what vladimir putin's going to do because if you cut off the supply of energy, even part of it, going nto europe, that's kind of the wild card here so if that does not happen, when we look out, we're seeing good economic growth here in the states we're seeing employment numbers moving the right way we think that inflation is going to decelerate as we look out over the next 12 to 24 months. i think there's some good things

going on we're ornly about 10.5% off the record high, which is not that big of a pullback, but this is an area if you have a two-plus year horizon, you have to stick your toe in here and try to buy some stocks if you have excess cash >> alli, do you agree? is that what you're telling your clients? >> yeah, down to each points of the analysis the data and fundaments of the economy have not changed i think what has changed today, especially, which has led to a really meaningful risk off environment, as you can see, bonds going up, commodities going up, and basically everything going down, is this concept of the changing world order and what the long term implications are if you're looking at oil, for example, ubs did some work on modeling and what could be the worst case scenario with regards to russia, ukraine, and the provision of oil to the world and europe

and even if we had a really sort of tail event, which i think is what the markets are trying to avoid and price in at this point, which would be oil over or at $125 for one to two quarters, that would take at most about a half a percent off global gdp, so certainly, that is enough to dampen growth, but not enough to stop growth or to continue the rebound, the sick liicality, the reopening so especially on days like today, whercyclicality, things e oil, things like financials are sinking, this is definitely a day to get in and build long-term positions. >> scott, a month ago, the chief concern and the main preoccupation of this market was what the fed was going to do, the market was kind of falling over itself to raise its estimates of exactly how many times the fed might hike this year the market now has taken some of

those anticipated hikes off the table. at least for now is that a net positive or does it set us up to perhaps be wrong in the other direction again if in fact inflation stays high and the fed feels like they don't have to necessarily ease back as much from their plans? >> well, i think, mike, we just debated this at the investment strategy committee meeting today. i think the consensus for us is that we have got four hikes penciled in. if we're wrong, it might be a little more. we don't really think that the fed is going to take into account what's happening in ukraine, inflation is high and they're going to be pretty dedicated to knocking it down. but really, you're right we were down 10% just because people were uncertain as to what the fed is going to do, and we're still down 10% off the all-time record high that's not to say that russia and ukraine don't mean anything, because they do. just look at the grain markets and oil, as alli mentioned

but you know, for us, the market is expected the fed to do something about inflation, not just sit here. these readings are too high for them to not start on this now. they're not going to do 50 in march, at least in our opinion, but you're going to get four hikes and maybe more this year >> alli, what happens when a fed hikes into an economic and geopolitical and energy shock environment where the economy is already slowing down that's the bear case, and that's what people are trying to figure out what happens to the economy then and to the market >> yeah, and that's, i think, what's driving days like today where you see a marked sort of i want liquidity, i want safety. so the answer is, volatility, and we're going to have a heightened period of volatility like we have been saying is in front of us, but we really haven't seen for a while and there's so many reasons for

that there's the fact that we are midcycle, which is much more about interpreting data and slow moving we know growth is slowing. we don't know what this new normal looks like in terms of everything from return to work to return to travel. and so the expectation should be that as opposed to this sort of just up beta market we have had virtually unabated since the global financial crisis, that there's going to be a lot more stop and start, and as i think you have been seeing all throughout 2022, which has been exaggerating the volatility in the moves. you know, a lot of people and a lot of active managers are sitting on their hands and waiting. they're waiting for potential resolution of the geopolitical issues they're waiting to see what happens in march i mean, think about how quickly the expectations have changed from the market pricing in 50 basis points to 25 so i think right now, you're not getting paid to take a lot of risk you have in the past, and you're

not getting paid to sit in cash or in bonds, given the volatility sitting there so there's just a lot of cash on the sidelines, anticipating what's next. and until that full force goes into the market and provides real support and stabilization, volatility is what is going to be the oreseen consequence >> scott, if you think this resolves in a relatively positive way, in other words, we get through this, we can handle fed tightening, clearly the market must have given you some opportunities here because a third of the s&p is down 20% or something. what areas would you emphasize >> we have liked technology and we have liked communication services but the ones, some that have been hit lately that we like and part of this is because the yield curve's really flattening out, we like financials. we like industrials, and of course, industrials are tied to the global economy on a relative basis, those two sectors have been hit pretty hard if you're looking for bargains

might be a stretch of the word, but if you're looking for sectors that have underperformed, which should do better when we come out of the tunnel and there's light that we can see, those two sectors are two that we have had interest in >> scott and alli, thank you very much. appreciate the time today. >> all right, talk to you soon straight ahead, we'll break down the big pullback for the banks plus, a top analyst weighs in on target's surge those stories and more when we keounse e rk zone. wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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♪ ♪ our mission is to help our members achieve financial independence to realize their ambitions. getting your money right requires more than a financial service provider. it requires a partner that is there for every major financial decision in our member's life and all the days in between. today we take our greatest step yet forward fulfilling our mission and helping more people achieve financial independence. . just getting some news in from apple, announcing a series of moves it's taking to cut ties to russia after the company says

that they are deeply concerned about the invasion of ukraine. here's what apple is doing specifically in terms of reactions in response. pausing all product sales in russia also apple says last week we stopped all exports into our sales channel into the country apple pay and other services have been limited. russia today news and sputnik news are no longer available on the app store, and apple says it has disabled traffic and live incidents in apple maps in ukraine as a safety and precautionary measure for ukrainian citizens we have seen similar moves from google, taking russia off youtube and suspending the map to protect ukraine apple says we're going to continue to evaluate the situation and are supporting efforts for humanitarian aid and refugees just another example of a big western company making a move to cut ties and put more pressure on russia. >> let's get to the market zone. we have about 12 minutes left in the trading day. straight into the closing bell market zone. joining us, nancy tangler, of

laughler tangler investments we'll kick it off with the broader market because stocks are extending losses losing steam yet again into the close. the dow was down 785 at session lows around 1:30 we recovered a little bit at the top of the hour and we're heading south now, down more than 717 into the close. s&p 500 down now almost 2% nancy, has the russia/ukraine incident, the spike in oil and other commodities prices and now this big rally in bonds that we're seeing, in treasuries, changed your opinion of the market or anything you're doing? >> well, hi, sara. and congratulations on the new show it certainly has changed the way where we're buying we have added to some names and i'll go over those in a minute i have been investing in unfortunately 7 out of the last 13 geopolitical crises and every single time the market

ended up 12 months later accept for after 9/11, so we think there's a lot going right with the economy. i saw the atlanta fed numbers you referenced earlier as well now we're at zero percent growth, but we're seeing a lot of really positive news like growth in durable goods, capx spending significantly in the quarter, or in the last month. and so we're taking advantage and picking our spots. trimming our winners and adding to some names we have wanted to own or wanted to add to for a long time. so i think there's still opportunities for investors. i think in the second quarter, we'll all be breathing a sigh of relief, at least i hope so but we added to l3 harris a couple weeks ago, or praeb three weeks ago in anticipation of improvements in the defense spending in this country, but also on geopolitical tensions. >> yeah, i mean, just on short term basis, in terms of the high blood pressure readings in the

market is what i think has people a little bit uncomfortable. so you have the volatility index near 35. you have this buying panic in treasuries you have oil where it is for the wrong reasons. and to me, it's still just an excuse to let's keep testing the low end of the range and see if buyers have conviction and are there. where we stand right now in terms of the s&p 500, we're still, you know, 150 points on the s&p above where we were on thursday so it's really difficult to draw any conclusions about what macro message is being sent except for the fact we're on edge because we're almost waiting for something to break loose with all of this financial stress there the macro message is so interesting because usually when you would see yields fall like this, you would see the dollar fall, but it's the opposite. the dollar has been stronger what's interesting is also european bonds when we talk about the fact the market is taking out a lot of the hiking or the interest rate increases expected from the fed, that's happening but it's also happening in europe wherethy

they just started talking about tightening their banks, their companies, exposures and their economic growth that's part of the treasury trade as well. >> they are going to feel it, the issue is it's indistinguishable right now from just a grab for safety and cash, as opposed to people handicapping what the economy is going to look like in a few months >> we're seeing that, gold is up, japanese yen is up target, though, is bucking today's broader sell-off shares surging after posting an earnings beat before the bell, along with optimistic growth guidance let's bring in analyst aroon sundarm. he has a buy rating, $280 on the stock. target has been on this great run, so what did we learn today that sort of supercharged the move in the stock? >> yeah, thanks, sara. what we learned today is some of these retainers can continue to grow on top of the really strong growth they have generated over the past two years i think there was this narrative more recently on wall street

that a lot of the larger retailers can't sustain growth they experienced in the past few years, but that doesn't seem to be the case for target as well as a lot of other diversified big box retailers including walmart, costco. these retailers have been -- the top line has been moving really strong, and that's resulting in a tremendous amount of operating leverage and in turn, they're able to grow the bottom line as well and also invest in their business in areas like wages and prices, all things you have been hearing about. so the big takeaway today was that retailers can continue to grow the bottom line in 2022 >> yeah, i mean, obviously, very reassuring outlook from target, but i wonder what you think it means in terms of where the stock can head from here because it had given back a tremendous amount of multi-year gains even with this tremendous bounce we're kind of where we were in late january how much further upside might there be for target? >> we upped our target price

this morning from $260 to $288 that's assuming it trades around 19 times our forward earnings estimates. that's still relatively cheap compared to other big box retailers out there. walmart, for example, trades around 21, 22 times forward earnings costco is around 37 to 40 times forward earnings target is relatively cheap compared to some of these other big box retailers. yet, like i said, they're growing their bottom line by high single digits which is really attractive. i think that's one way for investors to rerate the stock higher >> yeah, we'll see if that happens. it has often traded at a bit of a discount, but it's taking care of some of that today. thank you for your quick thoughts on target today >> thanks. >> treasury yields are sinking as investors move into safe havens amid the ongoing russia/ukraine conflict. the ten-year dropping to the lowest level since january 5th today and financials the worst performing sector on the back of

the great fall in yields.jpmorgn of america, and wells fargo are down 4%. zion and regions financial all plummeting as well today and nancy, this really does seem more of a rates move with a little bit of an overlay of, well, this global financial friction and we don't really know what the sanctions might mean but what might be your response to it if anything in terms of taking a closer look at some of these names? >> yeah, mike, we were suspicious of the fed rate hike estimates that many wall street firms were putting out so consequently, though we were tempted to add to our regional bank holdings, we sort of kept them where they were and added some things around the edges. we add american express, chubb insurance, and t. rowe price as another way to experience the financial sector i think it's going to be a rocky road some of the higher quality names, goldman sachs is in our

12 best ideas portfolio. we may nibble on that coming up, but i'm not convinced the fed can raise rates x russia and ukraine. i'm not convinced they can raise rates or will raise rates at the pace that wall street was arguing for. and let's not forget, the same prognosticators a year ago or not even, nine months ago, were for increases in 2023 and 2024 and suddenly we're at eight to ten this year. the estimates are always wrong and the goal is to find the sweet spot we think three to four is more likely that's not a reason to jump in and add significantly to bank stocks i would rather own a stock like target, which we do own, which told us today they have a raise of 20 to 30% next quarter. those are the names i want to own, the companies with pricing power and are raising dividends in this environment. >> want to point out, wti crude oil up more than 9% right now. some headlines on the wires,

deputy prime minister of canada talking about how g7 is going to impose more sanctions on russia in the coming days there was a call between yellen and dombrowski of europe talking about more sanctions on russia the market is immediately leaping to the energy. >> the next big thing that could be closed off. >> so far in terms of sanctions. oil prices near the highs of the day, up 9% $104.44. chip stocks are also getting crushed today along with the broader market kristina partsinevelos with a look at the biggest decliners. >> getting crushed more than the overall market decline despite the lack of company related news amd, trailing, it was down about 7% before. you can see it is still down 7%. the second biggest drag on the tech sector. fidelity research came out this afternoon, points out they're actually more buys than sales specifically for amd and nvidia. yesterday, we learned the united states issued a ban on semi-conductor sales to russia

keep in mind, russia accounts for less than 1% of global chip sales. but today, it is spiking oil that's adding to fears of inflation and of an economic slowdown, and although there's talk about possible repricing in march, rates are still expected to rise. and all of those are macro headwinds for the chip sector, considering it is considered cyclical and it's hurting high growth stocks like amd >> kristina partsinevelos, thank you. nancy, what do you do with the chips? it doesn't seek like russia is a major exposure point, but obviously there's that cyclical point on where we're heading in the economy and inflation. >> yeah, sara. inter interesting. >> as we head into the close, the s&p 500 still down a little more than 1.5%

you see there, semi-conductors leading to the downside, 3.8%. the nasdaq has also been an underperformer, also down about 1.6% the s&p, i have soosay, has kind of found its footing a few times today around this 4300 level not clear if that's going to be more broadly significant, but it definitely has not spent a whole lot of time below that it's about 150 s&p points above where we were on thursday. advancing versus declining volume decidedly negative, credit markets have been a key focus, one of the ways some of the global financial stress would make its way into equities high yields, etf, hygs, but ntd p underperforming the last couple days that gap opening up. it's not at critical levels of credit spreads widening, but softening up of activity treasuries rallying without credit doing the same thing. as we head into the close, the dow industrials down about 1.7%.

sara was mentioning energy, the only group, only major sector, only up about .5% even as wti crude has been up more than 9% to a new multi-year high above $100 a barrel. and the russell 2000 also down about 1.9% and underperforming >> a day of wild swings here on wall street. welcome back to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen along with mike santoli. rbc markets head of global equities helima croft on the skyrocketing price of oil. got as high as up 10% today, plus, instant analysis of earnings from salesforce, sofi, and efrbl others first, nancy tengler with us paul hickey joins the conversation paul, what do you think? buy the dip? we have real dip buying in last

week, and now with oil prices surging anew, treasury yields falling, signaling potentially slower growth ahead, what does an investor do >> you summed it up in the beginning. wild swings. that's what we have been seeing all year, for that matter. nasdaq 100, 1% intraday moves every day this year. that's the longest since april 2020 you have today was the first day actually since february 18th where the nasdaq 100 wasn't up and down half of a percent at some point during the trading day. we had these wild swings, and rather than make a stand, i think investors rather than make a stand, use some of these extreme opportunities, these extreme moves to take advantage of some opportunities. so like what you're seeing now in the last couple days, or the last couple weeks is energy and defense stocks have really gotten ahead of themselves those may be areas where you

want to lighten up or not chase. and then on the other side of the spectrum, you have the semi-conductors which you were talking about right before the closing bell and despite the weakness today, down over 3%, the semis have actually on a relative basis haven't made a lower low versus their january low. and when you look at the relative strength of the semis, it tends to lead the s&p very well back in january, when the s&p made a new high, the semis' relative strength didn't confirm that high. we're sort of seeing the opposite play out now. as long as that pattern holds up, i think the semis, you could use this weakness as an opportunity here >> nancy, we have been focused on a lot of the pressure points on this market, from geopolitical to the fed to just the sort of macro deceleration going against that is you have companies that still maintain record earnings levels, margins,

they're pinched but holding up, and they're buying back a lot of stock and raising dev ividends the corporate sector is pretty decent the consumer balance sheet in pretty good shape. where does that leave you in terms of looking for areas where the market may have gotten it a little wrong in the short term about the strength of the economy or even maybe underestimating some risks out there? >> yeah, mike, that's an excellent point. in fact, we're seeing record dividend increases as well you had home depot turn in a stellar report with 15% dividend increase in stocks sold off on somewhat weaker margins. and we think the supply chain is easing inventories are building that's going to put disinflationary pressures on goods prices, but it's also going to help a company like home depot who has had, you know, difficulty getting product. and then sara asked me in the previous session, i'm sorry my audio wasn't working, if we would be interested in buying semis. i agree that indeed this is a place where you do want to go in

and take advantage of weakness they are big dividend payers as well they're also really good capital allocators to your point, we believe stock buybacks will put a floor under this market. cash on corporate balance sheets in the third quarter was at a record high. this is a good time to really pay attention to the high quality names. and if you can get dividend growers in there, that's even better it provides an offset against inflation and protection in declining markets. >> we have seen a lot of buybacks ramping up, announcements, mike. some of the retailers today. kohl's, i saw it what is that a signal of >> i mean, companies - >> you think their stocks are getting cheap. >> they want to return cash to shareholders they think it's going to be rewarded in some instances like zoom video because they feel like they have to make some gesture toward shareholder friendliness when the fundamentals are not looking as great, i think it's a big part of the general bull case for the financial sector,

the corporate sector being flush right here i don't think it's as much a value judgment based on what management is thinking it's a lot more about, look, we have enough to go around we have enough free cash flow to invest in the business, because capx estimates are going up at the same time, you can buy back stock and reset dividends higher >>ia know what i want to bring up, what also worked today, which we haven't talked that much it wasn't just oil, treasuries, the dollar,gold. bitcoin had another strong day and also, went against the sort of risk trade. it had been so correlated with the market in recent weeks and i do wonder if this is bitcoin's real moment where it's showing a new use case it's not just circumventing sanctions in russia, even if you think bitcoin is too early for that ukraine is soliciting donations in bitcoin the fact it is more mainstream now and is proving useful in this war is pretty telling, don't you think? >> yeah, i mean, it's finally living up to its reputation the last two days or what it was

intended, the main selling point is that it's a safe currency that people, when it's in limited supply when you have uncertainty, it's digital gold as people have been calling it, and it hasn't necessarily lived up to that reputation, but i think longer term, when you have this -- you have a lot of prospect for inflation down th road, bitcoin i think is certainly an area where investors should have at least a little bit of exposure >> up 6% today we have an earnings alert. hpe, frank holland with the numbers. frank. >> shares of hpe up more than 3.5% after a miss on revenue eps 7 cents above estimates, and strong full year guidance. i spoke to the ceo he was especially proud of the company's margin expansion despite supply chain issues and a 136% increase in ad service as service orders as the company

continues to push being a leader in edge to cloud revenue overall grew 2%. operating margin, 11%, just above the 10% estimate compute, the core business of hardware and software where it gets 40% revenue, that saw 2% growth this quarter and was able to expand margin, intelligent edge, really key to the edge to cloud transition, that up 11%. guidance was roughly in line next quarter but very strong full year. he says he expects supply chain issues to last until just about the second half of 2022 and says for hpe, that's mostly low level components that are impacted also spoke about russia/ukraine. he said the company has a few dozen contractors in the region but is working to assist them or evacuate shares of hpe up more than 5.5% after a miss on revenue but a beat on eps. back over to you >> hp up about 80 cents. down about $2 since the last couple weeks or so frank, thank you very much nordstrom earnings also out.

courtney reagan has those numbers. >> hey, there. yeah, nordstrom putting up a strong report here earnings per share at $1.23. that beats the estimates of $1.02 per share. revenue also stronger than expected at $4.49 billion. better than $4.35 billion. shares jumping sharply, up 17% on these results also putting up some really nice margin with gross margin up 5 percentage points from a year ago, so at 38.4% also, higher sequentially quarter over quarter looks like promotions were reduced as part of that. inventory levels at the end of the quarter were higher than planned, up by about 19% rack sales, so remember, this is the off-price division of nordstrom, down 5% from two years ago. but doing a little bit better when you're looking sequentially and just like the other retailers' reports this morning, the guidance is quite strong with a full year revenue up more sharply than analysts are expecting. and the full year earnings per

share of $3.15 to $3.50 is far above analyst expectations for $2.01 for the full year. again, nordstrom shares now up 26% after hours. back over to you >> they needed it, courtney. remember, they have had a tough few quarters where the stock was going the other way in a big way. looks like the turnaround story is happening thank you, courtney reagan >> salesforce earnings also out, and that stock is also up. deirdre bosa with those numbers. deirdre. >> yeah, stock has bounced more than 5.5% on the back of a beat on the bottom and top lines. revenue coming in at $7.33 billion versus $7.24 expected. a slight beat, but a 10 cent beat on the bottom line. adjusted eps of 84 cents versing 74 cents which is what the street was expecting q1 revenue outlook is light on the earnings per share side. expecting between 93 and 94

cents. revenue, however, better than the street was expecting for the first quarter, between 7.73 and 7.83 billion the company also raising their full year revenue guidance to $32.1 billion at the high end of the range. shares are up nearly 5%, making up for some of the heavy losses year to date so far, about 17% we'll continue to dig into this. back to you. >> deirdre, thank you. and be sure to catch salesforce ceo marc benioff on "mad money" tonight. jim cramer, 6:00 p.m. eastern time of course, take your pick, nancy. which report do you like because we have, it looks like, a bunch of big gainers after hours. salesforce, hewlett-packard enterprise, nordstrom. interesting news >> our favorite space in technology is obviously cloud. and all those companies have knocked it out of the park amazon, microsoft, service now they all bounced after hours and they haven't really been able to hold those gains in this

environment. but i think the salesforce numbers and the raised guidance for 2023 is very good news it's in our 12 best ideas portfolio. hasn't looked much like a best idea in the last nine months, but we like the story long term and we think that this is a place that you want to be. and it's interesting on the heels of zoom's report, we'll see what they say about slack at salesforce i think they may be providing some competition >> paul, at the tail end here of the quarterly earnings season, how would you size it up i know we have had a little bit of a jump in the number of companies with lowered guidance versus raised guidance and it looks like it's a little more of a noisy quarter than we have had in recent past. what's the bottom line for you >> so i think it's more of a normal quarter compared to what we have seen over the last year, but i sort of had to do a double take looking at the screen i mean, when this earnings season had we seen pretty much the majority of companies reporting are up in their

earnings, this is something we haven't seen in a while. and nordstrom, a good report from nordstrom, that is a rare sighting indeed. 7 of 8 quarters, the stock has fallen in response to earnings and either missed eps or revenue. for numbers to come in both ahead of expectations for that stock, that's a real change from the norm for that stock. and i don't know the details, but we'll see will they beat guidance on when they're going to start paying the dividend again or buying back stock >> maybe coming a little bit of a jolt to people who account for the 22% of nordstrom shares that are short at this point. so we're getting a little bit of a squeeze on that position, no doubt, in addition to relief on some of those numbers. we have also got an earnings alert on sofi. kate rooney has those numbers. >> sofi with a beat on the top and bottom line for the fourth quarter, and better than expected full year guidance. let's start with the bottom line loss per share was lower than

expected, that was 15 cents, a loss there but 2 cents above estimates. revenue also a beat. coming in at $279.9 million. full year guidance looking better than expected there is a line here about the impact of the extension of the federal student loan payment moratorium that's looking like a drag on q1 guidance with slightly lower loan origination sofi should see a $30 million to $35 million reduction in q1, but full year revenue still coming in strong. stock up more than 9% after hours. i spoke to the ceo about the quarter. he said that unexpected drag will weigh on q1 revenue, but full year still looking strong he talked about loan origination still strong up 168% year to year also talked about member growth, that hit a new record. 525,000 members in the quarter that was up 39% from the prior quarter, and also talked about brand awareness. that increases thanks to things

like nfl games you have things like sofi stadium in l.a and diversifying revenue this is something wall street is very focused on. he pointed to financial services that includes things like stock trading, sofi invest, and sofi money. total products in that segment was up 155% year over year stock up more than 11% here after hours. back to you. >> yeah, another situation where a big after earnings move but just getting us back to where the stock was about a month ago because of the pain. >> that's what i was going to ask? are these earnings so good or was the setup so bad >> it's both much more about the setup. i mean, sofi is down more than half from the peak you have these stocks that are moving around quite a bit, and you get better than feared numbers and here is the result paul hickey, thanks a lot for your time today. appreciate it. we'll catch you again soon and nancy, before we let you go, we want to zone in on your top ideas. what is it right now

>> okay, thanks, mike. i'm going to give microsoft as my name. i picked one the last time i was on and that stock had a nice run. now is the time where you want to take a dip in with microsoft, especially with cloud revenues, the gaming, game pass, linkedin. office 365, everything is up double digits for the most part. i really do think this is a name that you can pick away at at the lower levels >> down about 10% over three months nancy tengler, thank you always good to see you >> we're just getting started here on the second hour of "closing bell. up next, dan ives reacts to salesforce's earnings. where he sees buying opportunities. and oil topping $100 a barrel for the first time in seven years. helima croft giving us her outlook on crude and tomorrow's opec plus meeting. we're back in two minutes on "closing bell.

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shares of salesforce up almost 3% after the company reported earnings that beat on the top and bottom lines joining us now, dan ives of web bush securities to break down the quarter. dan, what are your first impressions here seems like street reasonably reassured about these results. >> yeah, this is a shot in the arm for the bulls. and obviously, this has been an uphill battle. i think an oversold stock. if you look at subscriptions, billings growth, it really shows they're hitting their next level of growth in this cloud environment. i think a lot of it is also going to be slack driven in terms of the cloud i think this is as oversold as i have seen salesforce relative to growth and margins in probably four to five years >> you know, i look at things like salesforce's free cash flow yield, looks like up around 3% on a forward basis obviously higher than it's been

at times over the past couple years. how does that, you know, reflect upon the broader sort of software universe and what it's saying about either investors' aptide to pay up for the stocks and also the fundamentals of business spending? >> right now, it's a quagmire for investors because some of the free cash flow stories, they're able to sort of navigate better than others microsoft and apple and some others you look at software when you look at salesforce, the free cash flow i think is just massively attractive i think the slack deal alone is probably $50 to $60 overhang on the stock, which in our opinion, we're going to look out the next six to nine months this is one massive opportunity to own it, and they're showing fundamentals to back up the story. >> what is holding back the stock, dan their expectation for the first quarter, 2023 revenue guideance

is 24% growth. they're continuing to post double digit growth beat and raise. what is the overhang here? still the digestion of some of these big deals? >> i think the slack deal has been the clear overhang. that's something investors don't want to see, especially buying at the top, and worried about microsoft. competitively speaking, in terms of defending their turf, and what about the margin story. that's the fear, they continue to spend money and the margin story doesn't morph as we go into 2023, 2024. but benioff has the golden touch. any time you bet against him and salesforce, it's been the wrong move given the valuation here, risk/reward, i view as an e eye-popper >> want to get at the yie that slack in itself and the fact the company paid up for it is responsible for 50%, i mean, 20% overhang on the stock, right they only paid $28 billion for

slack. are you seeing the market is penalizing twice the value of slack in salesforce's valuation? >> i view it as one of the more nominal overhangs relative to what they paid they put it to the slide because of the slack deal. right now, even if youdiscount it and assume that's a zero, this is a name you would buy given the free cash flow story i think it's one some will argue painted the pure cloud, some will also argue as you go into the next year or two, a lot more competition, especially when you look at some of the next gen plays going after salesforce but if you look from an install base perspective, free cash flow valuation, you look at some of these numbers, you feel much better today owning salesforce than you dit 24 hours ago. i think a lot better than feared >> you also have the macro concerns, dan, and this idea of higher interest rates from the

fed and the whole revaluation of the entire tech sector, software names in particular. do you rethink what a fair value for salesforce should be and where should that be relative to some of its peers? >> yeah, and i think we have already seen a lot of that come down, 30%, 40% across software from some of the higher multiple names down 50% and 60% if i look at multiples based on growth when you factor in growth, i view software as a pocket of strength cybersecurity as well. obviously a white knuckle environment. we want to own names like salesforce, microsoft, palo alto even check point under free cash flow i think that's how you navigate this market. a lot of oversold disconnected names. salesforce being one of them >> dan ives, thanks for your quick take salesforce up almost 4% after hours. >> up next, a closer look at the surge of fund inflows amid the sell hp off and what it could

mean for the market. plus, a top analyst on whether investors should be buying the dip in bank stocks daey were hit especially hard toy. worst performing sector of the market we'll be right back.

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stocks got off to a rocky

start for the month of march let's go back to mike santoli taking a look at the uptick of inflows into the market lately, even amid all the selling. >> somewhat unexpected this is from bank of america, based on their own private client business and the flows experienced during a 10% s&p 500 correction so this is what obviously stands out. in the latest episode, the last couple months, net inflows pretty sizable ones, let's say $7 billion into bank of america accounts typically outflows during market corrections. although this is one exception, back in early 2018 you remember that was also a time when the market had come off a record high, a high momentum move like this time, and we saw net inflows and the total market value of the stock market back then was a lot smaller. maybe there's some precedent for this, but the argument made is look, we have dip buying mentality pretty well engrained, whether that's good or bad is the question are they buying into further weakness because they're just conditioned to assume it's going

to be a quick one? that's what we have to see i wanted to point out, too, very aggressive flows into commodity related etfs this is performance chasing. this is typically what happens this looks like it's scary, people getting overexcited about commodities. however, the absolute numbers are small. we're talking about $3 billion, $4 billion over the course of the last 40 days, and of course, commodities in general are very low allocations in the grand scheme of things in terms of investor portfolios. arguably, this is okay, but beware in the short term, maybe people are getting overheated. >> the stock inflows, institutional? >> retail. >> high net worth retail that's why it's somewhat interesting that it seems like the public itself is much more interested in buying on weakness, where you have seen hedge funds back off a fair bit. >> thank you >> energyis the only s&p 500 sector that finished in the green today. oil hit its highest level since 2014 let's bring in rbc capital markets head of global commodity

strategy helena croft joins us by phone wti up 10.22%. these are the highs of the session after the market closes. so what is the market expectation here that we're going to get sanctioned, that russia is going to be sanctioned on energy >> the expectation is we simply don't know whether energy sanctions are coming due to the way that the war is being conducted. the white house has gone to great lengths to say we are giving carve-outs for energy payments so even though we're putting full blocking sanctions on russia's second largest bank which does the most energy transactions, a lot of market participants are saying we don't know what this is going to look like in two weeks. if russia continues to wage this war with this much verferocity, it's only a matter of time before we're talking about fum secondary sanctions on energy exports, so i think the market is very, very concerned. also, you have a number of

companies essentially self-sanctioning saying even though we're not formally being told to divest from our russian holdings, we're going to do it any shell, bp, shipping, a lot of refiners saying we're not sure we want to take russian crude right now. there is also this self-sanctioning phenomenon. russia is becoming this toxic asset. even though the white house is probably going to come out and reaffirm they're not going to block energy payments, i think people are looking in the direction of travel and saying, how long is that line going to hold >> and then what if it goes into full on energy sanctions as you say, this is where the market sees it going, what are we talking about in terms of how much, how many barrels of oil come off line for russia and whether the rest of the global economy can handle that >> i mean, first of all, the white house is probably going to come out and say we're not doing full energy sanctions now. they're going to probably come out with a list of the actual banks that are being disconnected from s.w.i.f.t. and they're probably going to

say several of the big ones are not being disconnected yet but if we do get full energy sanctions, we will then have to look at another spr release. more importantly, there's going to be a lot of pressure on the opec producers that are sitting on spare capacity to release more barrels onto the market they're meeting tomorrow our expectation is they're not potentially going to change the formula right now, but if we get to a couple weeks from now and if there are significant russian disruptions because of sanctions or russia withholding supply or companies just saying i don't want to touch it, then i do think there is a path for opec, for saudi arabia, for uae, kuwait, the countries with spare capacity to put more barrels on the market that's ultimately what i think the white house wants. spr releases are what you do in an emergency situation i think they would prefer spares in the market.

there's question marks about how many barrels are out there >> you said pressure is building on the opec producers with spare capacity to raise production and yet maybe not yet. what's going to change in two weeks? is there a price level they're going to be sensitive to where they think demand destruction is going to be more likely? >> i think what they're looking for is is there a physical supply disruption? obviously, if you talk about oil prices, moving towards $120, obviously, everyone is going to get very nervous but i do think the catalyst for opec coming into the market would likely be a physical, clear physical supply disruption from russia. again, either due to sanctions, companies self-sanctioning, and if russia were to actually start withholding supplies themselves. that's the big wild card we have had all these sanctions placed on russia the most serious sanctions to date ever placed on russia and we don't know yet how russia is going to fully respond to these economic measures. >> is there a breaking point for

putin on oil prices, do you think, or on oil sanctions i should say where we could see some sort of off ramp? because it's hard to see what comes next it doesn't seem like any fast resolution here. >> i think one of the real challenges that he's facing is of central banks sanctions where he simply cannot access the reserve war chest he had built up over the past couple years. it's an interesting question like what type of economic pain forces a change in calculation i'm not sure we know that because i don't think we know really how far he's willing to take this war. and his idea of reconstituting the sort of soviet sphere of influence. >> yeah, a lot we don't know for sure, helima, and ki'm sure we'l talk to you soon as opec meets and beyond thank you very much. >> still ahead, a top analyst on whether more pain could still be ahead for the banks, as interest rates continue to fall >> as we head to break, take a look at shares of ross stores

which are rallying after they beat earnings estimates and announcing a nearly $2 billion stock buyback. the stock is up almost 8% after hours. - i'm nervous, i'm excited. - [man] okay, let's see it. let's see it. - oh my gosh. - as soon as she saw this, i did it and it's here. - [man shouting] yeah! (upbeat music) - [narrator] next term starts soon. visit snhu.edu

welcome back

time now for a cnbc news update with shep smith. hi, shep >> thanks. from the news on cnbc, here's what's happening the united states and other world powers agreed today to release 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. it's a move meant to lower gas prices while sanctions imposed on russia in the past few days do not directly target oil and gas, continued fighting is expected to disrupt supply routes throughout ukraine and in the black sea. and that could cause new problems >> ukraine now wants russia kicked off the internet. in a letter to the internet corporation for assigned names and numbers, or ican, the ukrainian government asks russians domain names be shut down the ukrainians point to cyberattacks and propaganda and say russian citizens must feel the cost of war. it would have the effect of making russian email and websites unreachable from outside the country. no response yet from ican on

that request >> and the war has created a refugee crisis that is expanding by the hour. according to the united nations refugee agency, now 660,000 people have fled ukraine to neighboring countries. tonight, we're live on the polish border with ukraine as we meet one family of refugees struggling to find hope. and a place to call home and we'll have extended coverage right after jim cramer, 7:00 eastern, immediately following complete coverage of the state of the union, the republican response, and analysis throughout primetime tonight, cnbc mike, back to you. >> shep, thank you last hour, we told you about apple pausing product sales in russia and more and more companies are taking steps in light of the country's invasion of ukraine. msc and maris, the world's biggest shipping lines, say they will suspend container shipping to and from russia google announcing it will block youtube channels conducted to rt and sputnik across europe. snap saying it will stop all

advertising running in russia. belarus, and ukraine as well as halt ad sales to all russian and belarus entities and in hollywood, disney warner brothers universal and sony entertainment all pausing theatrical film releases in russia >> a mix of companies trying to navigate sanctions which is making it harder to do business, and basically getting things in and out, and also companies proactively taking steps to draw a line and come out publicly and say it >> remarkably quickly, i have to say. i think largely responding to their own employees and social media and just this kind of -- >> and governments >> this global - >> condemnation. >> first solar earnings are out. the stock is sinking >> yeah, shares are sinking right now. down more than 12% after a mixed quarter from first solar the company reported sales of $970 million that was below the expectation of $918 million. eps did beat coming in at $1.23 per share compared to $1.06 per

share which was the estimate but the big thing here is the guidance, which was weak for both revenue and earnings. the revenue they see full year between $2.4 and $2.6 billion. wall street was expecting $2.76 billion. on the earnings front, they're expecting between break even and 60 cents, while wall street was calling for $1.92, so well short of expectations. the company has faced rising raw material costs, supply chain problems as well as pandemic related challenges there was also, of course, that decision to extend, to not include bifacial panels in the tariff extension to which the company said they're deeply disappointed about the stock sinking here, down about 13%. back to you. >> yeah, pippa, thank you. an exception to the after hours moves to the upside for more of those earnings reporters >> sofi surging after a smaller than expected loss up next, an analyst with a buy rating on the stock tells us what he wants to hear during the company's conference call, which

kicks off at the top of the hour >> plus, will fed chair jay powell being able to calm investors' fears during his testimony before congress tomorrow what wall street will be listening for later on "closing bell."

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guidance as well joining us now, dan dallof to talk about the quarter what stands out to you in terms of the user growth numbers and anything that seems to be an indication of their path of becoming this kind of central one and all financial app? >> yeah, thanks for having me again. look, this is not just a strong quarter. this is a very strong quarter. i have never seen something like that in the history of sofi. all these kpis, products, members, products per member, they're accelerating and accelerating at a faster pace than they have done in the past. they're firing on all cylinders is probably an understatement. >> what gives you confidence, assuming you have it, that sofi can emerge out of this huge group of companies, whether it's cash app, it's robinhood, coinbase, paypal, of trying to become this hub for younger people's financial lives >> i think it's a great question i think there's room for more

than one company to succeed. and if you're thinking about what these companies that you mentioned or most of them are disrupting, they're disrupting an even bigger tam off traditional banks, traditional asset managers, traditional brokerages there's so much room for growth, and each one of those companies, we like robinhood, too, we like block square, is coming at it from a slightly different angle, and sofi is coming at it from the angle of having allowing people to get a mortgage, to get a student loan by the way, the originations of student loans are up 50% sequentially in the fourth quarter. it's really firing on all cylinders. i have never seen such good results from sofi before >> all right the stock remains well, well off its highs, down by more than half heading into today's numbers. dan, thanks a lot for checking in >> you got it. >> stock selling off again in today's session. the major averages closing deep in the red the dow ending down nearly 600 points banks getting particularly hit

hard today as yields plummeted. up next, we'll discuss whether it's safe to buy the dip in some of theannas. bk me "closing bell" will be right back

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finances down 3.7% today, by

far the worst performing sector on the back of the fall in trerths treasury yields we saw took a dramatic drop. jpmorgan, bank of america down 4%, wells fargo down 6%. joining us is jeff hart at piper sandler. this was a group that everyone loved and was supposed to work this year. and it was it was one of the few groups that was positive along with energy for much of the year on higher interest rates and an economy that was doing well. and now all of a sudden russia/ukraine does that change the thesis for these names? >> well, i don't think it does too much i mean, certainly, geopolitical ri risk like that is concerning i think the real driver, at least the weakness recently, is the outl letoutlook for interess earlier this year, it was three hikes this year. last week, they're expecting seven hikes from the fed this year now we're backto three or four i think we're in a more reasonable spot as far as what hikes will actually be

you could maybe argue they got a little ahead of themselves there. you can watch the way the ten-year and fed fund futures are trading and that seems to be the way the banks have been trading. >> they actually started going down after earnings when the issue of cost became a problem cost for labor and competition and all of that. so where does that leave us in terms of valuations right now? given the fundamentals of what's ahead. >> well, it's always tough to say kind of what the market or what stocks are going to do tomorrow when i look at bank stocks here, i see a lot of things still to like interest rates are still going higher as for the banks, maybe not as much as we thought, but the good news is also helps take the policy error off the table hiking too fast and causing a recession would be the worst thing for banks. that probably plays out okay we're still seeing low growth. that's important when you look at net interest income, rates have a big impact, but so does volume on the

balance sheet side we're still seeing good loan growth and the other thing is credit. credit quality still looks really good, and when we look at the health of business and consumer balance sheets, it looks like it should stay good i think there's a lot to like about banks. on these day to day swings, it's hard day-to-day swings make it hard to catch your breath. >> tomorrow citi have investor day and a lot of folks anticipating, you put out a p preview what you expect 20 hear, what do you think management can say here what do you expect it will mean for the stock? >> i think the most important thing they can do is convince the street of double digit rotce in the near term not only lay out a creditable path but convince the street that is achievable is key. i could easily see a path there. question is how long will it

take for the business, certainly good to get more detailed disclosures insights in wealth management things like that. i think the thesis for citi has to be a turn around story, when things go from really bad to not quite as bad, not until it is good, it's a question whether we can get the feeling that we've gone from really bad to not quite as bad to drive the shares up. >> so what's the strategy in banks right now? is regionals because they're more domestically focused given the geopolitical turbulence or is ones that have been beaten up versus some others, how do you play the themes? >> one of the themes we're seeing is staying away from capital markets, investment banks getting hit hard and playing into that b of a and jpmorgan and citi banks seems to be an area getting hit i think beyond that the places getting hit are the higher more

like things like the trust banks which really ran up when we expectationsed seven hikes and now came crashing back down. i think if you look at the banks, if you look at u.s. economy still looks pretty good, interest rate hikes still are coming so you still want asset sensitivity and look for someone to generate loan growth to push new a pool of companies, and also rageal banks and something like bank of america you get advantage of scale the environment is tough erp than we think it is going to be that scale will go a long way to help their bottom line >> looking at charts of morgan stanley gave up nine worths of upside in a couple weeks is there something to worry about in terms of financial stress levels, rupture in the capital market in regard to financial sanctions investors are bracing for is or it's a rate story and deal activity

type environment. >> i think it's a rate story morgan stanley is a big asset sensitive business so higher short-term rates help it a lot not as high or fast hurt them a lot, part of the reason they've been dragging. there's always a risk of contagion being a problem for european banks but at this point not hearing goumabling of commodity trading, it seems manageable, definitely is a concern in people's minds but the more pressing thing is are deals going to get done again is capital market recovery over, and what if we don't get higher rates and if this war will turn into recession. >> yeah, plenty to worry about every day we go that we don't hear about an accident is good for these companies, thanks, very much jeff. >> thank you. >> up next the fed in focus

tomorrow as j powell gears up for his testimony in congress. we'll break down what to watch tonight don't miss cnbc coverage president biden "state of the union" address hosted by shepard smith. special coverage starts at 8:00. "closing bell" will be right back

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♪ let's check in on some of today's big earnings movers after-hours, mostly positive, nordstrom soaring up 37.5% after better than expected top and bottom line results thanks to improved margins and promotions. sofi with a strong rally 16% after a after-hours loss salesforce beating on profit and estimates and issue strong outlook for 2024 growth and first solar slumping after revenue miss and weaker guidance some names like nordstrom was about the set up, came off a string of really ugly earnings reports where the stock moved down 20, 30% on the day and the market expectations are just so low on names like this and entire market at this point >> stocks down 60% off its high. $3 billion market cap down too

big day ahead for j powell the fed due to testify before congress tomorrow. steve with the run down what to look for. >> decline in yields brought on by safety prompting a rethink for the outlook for the fed. 50 basis points seems like it is out for march. more doubt crept in beyond hikes beyond three this year fed funds future trading 100% probability of march high but only 10% chance of that high to be 50 basis points similar probabilities for hike in may and june but where that certainty ends, for july and november approaching 50% for the fires time six down is priced out all comes in sharp decline in bond yields, fallenfrom two percent now at 171 and change you'd call it again, much of it seems like a

flight to safety that complicated the feds jobs, looking for tighter financial conditions in form of higher rates not getting it right here. the war pushes up the oil and commodity prices as well the fed might otherwise back off on tightening because of this uncertainty the move in commodities force their hand in testimony. listen to powell's comments on the war and what's happening beyond summer >> i guess he's going to have to decide between economic growth or fighting inflation i know they don't frame it thatway. they want to do both it's going to be this or that, season the it? 13w4r57 -- isn't it? >> he can have both. have your interest rate hikes and eat it too, something like that he can go to one percent you know give us three or four mikes. -- hikes. and then stop and look around and see what the situation is like

growth is strong unemployment is low. he has flexibility here. as longs growth remains high he is not making a huge trade off >> that will be a delicate dance he will have to do to define the year steve, thank you thanks, mike that does it forr us on "closin bell." "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq marketsite in time square this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. tonight's trader lineup tim seymour, karen finerman,dan nathan and pete najarian tonight on fast, danny says could be trouble brewing under the surface of the market. plus oil breaking out. crude soaring above $100 a barrel for the first time in more than seven years and chart master carter worth drilling down where this is heading next. and earnings calls underway we'll bring the latest