good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq marquette site in times square i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the dow plummeted 600 pointed to start the month of march the s&p and nasdaq one down by more than 1.5% if you take a look, we are seeing a bit of a bounceback this morning you're up by about 200 points for the dow. s&p futures up by 26 nasdaq up about 97 yesterday you saw yields continue to plunge through the course of the day. in fact, this morning even with the island higher you're only talking 1 president 75% for the ten-year remember it was trading above 10%. not the case today the other thing we're watching, crude oil prices which yesterday were up by 11.5% all the way up

to $106 and change ended the sigs up. this morning another bid on energy prices across the board with wti up 4% this morining to 107.55 we traded at almost 110 this morning earlier. brent crude up by 4% as well and natural gas up by about 3% andrew an update on ukraine the capital kyiv bracing for a russian assault. the convoy of russian vehicles we told you about yesterday continues to advance it's been slowed by lack of foork food, gas, and hesitancy russian forces are making two new pushes into strategic pushes in the south a broadcasting tower in kyiv had

its transmission knocked out for a period of time boeing suspending major operations in russia as well as support for the country's airlines pz, boeing joining apple, ford, dell, exxon, and others, pulling services and goods from russia. in last night's state of the union, president biden announcing further measures against russian companies. >> tonight i'm announcing that we will join our allies in closing off american air spice, adding an additional squeeze on their economy. he has no idea what's coming. >> the screws are being tightened to some degree. >> the markets are tightening the russian order. it's interesting it's a real bipartisan move. did you see from the right to

the far left in terms of demanding -- ed market is doing it for climate purposes. but it goes from republicans, rinos, manchin. >> he talked about the oligarchs, how far he'd like to see this going. >> it's happening already though russia can't give it away at this point although the same amount was exh exported yesterday as it was the day before but now they can't give it away. there's a boycott. you could be in trouble down the road if you do it now. >> it's looking at this. nobody wanted to be in business with the russians. i've been incredibly impressed with what we've seen

it may be painful. it may be 3% of our base they're willing to step out. >> don't you think most of the business -- it seems almost symbolic 90% of those companies, it's a symbolic issue steve liesman made a smart point yesterday. you are to some degree may be selling your stakes in equity for a song. >> it's going to be expensive to get out of that. >> it's not just expensive to the companies. the question is whether it's a gift in a strange and ironic way back to russia the question is whether you think those equity stakes also came with expertise, which is to say if you believe these western oil companies were providing the engineers and expertise russians didn't have and now they're

pulling back, it's a different story. >> i think it's symbolic when we're closing our airspace to russia closing ukraine's airspace -- there's two nuclear powers you can't have a dog fight with a mig and a fighter jet. it's really, really unbelievable that we're even talking about these things i don't know about close our airspace that's turning the screws. is anybody from russia coming here >> i did see a flight leaving russia down to cancun. >> down to cancun. those oligarchs. i'll tell you. i like the other side more anyway -- the other side of mexico. >> western. >> yeah. >> turning now to some of the other notable topics of last

night's state of the union president biden tackled what's on the minds of many americans, inflation. >> with all the bright spots in our economy, record job growth, higher wages, too many families are struggling to keep up with their bills. inflation is robbing them of gains they thought otherwise they would be able to feel i get it that's why my top priority is getting prices under control one way is to drive down prices and make americans floor i think i have a better idea to fight inflation. lower your costs, not your wages. >> the -- in certain circles there was some disappointment about what wasn't said i watched some of it last night. i watched some of it this morning. the ukrainian stuff was, i

thought -- i felt strong, but the pulling out the self-congratulations how we've done it -- telling everyone how it's going to happen is one thing. taking credit is another remember when we had someone on -- who was it who said -- >> bill daly. >> it's the ukrainian people that have given us a lot of unity in europe. but i've given credit to the hippocratic oath, don't do anything wrong, and i don't think we have at this point. just warning someone that it's coming, i don't know what enelse could have done. >> there was a warning it was coming having our intelligence making sure they were on top of that has allowed zelenskyy and ukrainians to prepare better and it's part of the reason putin was caught so off guard and

that's been warming. >> i'm very curious. what did you make of the economic part of this? 50%, 70% of the speech was about the economy. >> it was written before. >> it was written before in part and what he was trying to do with jobs. >> it's the number one issue on americans' minds right now. >> the person i've been watching on this is david axelrod he was not impressed in the end. one of the things he said repeatedly over and over again, the only thing you can do is be remarkably humble given the inflation story and you can't actually sit and list all of your accomplishments. >> but that's approaching it from david axelrod's side. if you approach it from the other side, someone who advises republicans, they would say olaf and germany almost threw out the playbook and headed down the wrong road you heard about anti-trust

issues we heard that price controls for -- no thank you for the vaccine but the companies need to have price controls >> i just said to you -- >> no, no. >> -- that the economic argument is not persuasive. >> that was from the left. my critique is from the right. you're still talking about spending more. >> what do you think you said? what do you think the president can do >> i think i would have taken the manchin tact probably. he's a democrat. >> and said what >> we're definitely not going to propose more spending. >> that would have changed the narrative how? >> i don't know whether expressing empathy from the president is going to have people at home say, i feel better now with $8 gas if it ever gets there. i think i would have also said

drn i think i would have walked back all of the regulations that you deny that the administration has even -- ed markey wants to cut off -- >> you want him to take responsibility for it. >> what? >> you want him to take responsibility for it. >> no. i want him to ease up on -- >> i'd like to see the lift and say we're going to drill here at home. >> drill here at home. read the journals. that's exactly drn -- >> did you read the editorial today? >> i did. >> you're not going to free up more -- and more hydrocarbons because they don't want to free up hydrocarbons. they want to make them more expensive. that's why he's aligned with the far left. >> to that point can i show this next clip because this ties into what we're talking about as i mentioned, crude prices climbing the highest in a decade

overnight. they topped $110 a barrel. this move comes ahead of an opec meeting today. oi peck plus being opec plus russia president biden addressed the high prices of crude in last night's state of the union. >> i'm taking robust action to make sure the pain of our sanctions is targeted at the russian economy and that we use every tool at our disposal to protect american businesses and consumers. tomorrow i can announce the united states will release 50 mill kwlun barion barrels. >> to put that in context, 60 million barrels maybe gets you a

month says plea. we're still releasing oil from the spr. that hasn't made a huge difference. >> it's weird in the past. whenever we release the price of oil, it always goes up the next day. but it's barely going to cover the short fall from russia russia is a big producer it's business zafrm also in the reading just below the lead editorial is looking at the production of oil. they have plenty of -- the same thing, horizontal drilling, fracking, everything we've done here they've done things they haven't used we offered to develop it for them the american companies they didn't do it. they didn't do it. they put their fate in thanes of vladimir putin, and i think that's part of what we're

talking about here but they seem to be more -- you're cutting off their own nose to spite their face. >> this is a situation where we know they're so reliant on it. they've been awakened. people say don't awake the sleeping bears that are -- ukraine, for 30 years they've had everything that the west offers that they didn't have before necessarily it's really precious the freedom they have, and it's going away biden said we're not going to let that stand on -- i'm not saying militarily, but we're not

going to accept it i don't know how you -- you need to just isolate them. >> i thought there was a lot of as you say some osophestry. you should say it's not going to stand. i get it they make a long list of critiques of what was said last night. >> honestly, i'd rather see the implementation of tough sanctions but don't talk about tough talk. >> this was not harry truman at the cold war you didn't here it's a vow that russia will not conquer and hold ukraine. >> i don't know how else you say

that alloyed of course, that's what he's saying. >> he stood firm. >> the difference is ukrainians stood up and said no. >> after they did it, we don't care anymore either. the west doesn't care about georgia or crimea. when we come back this morning we're going to talk about what's on today's "squawk" planner. fed chair jay powell is going to be testifying before congress. we'lltalk about how ukrainians invasion could change the fed's calculus of course, nobody knows what that means does it mean they don't want to put the economy into a recession or they're mrp concerning about the higher inflation yair costs

coming as a result stay tuned you're watching squaks and this is cnbc. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay...

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watching for with these speeches is mark grant, key security strategist and, mark, these are interesting times. we know the situation in ukraine has changed the callus for the fed, but we're not entirely sure how. what should we expect today? >> it's already. before we get to the fed can i make a comment >> sure. >> i'm part of plan called stand up america i don't know if most of america knows this, but america is importing 200,000 barrels a da of barrel from russia and 5,000 barrels of petrochemicals and that's a shame i'm ashamed the government is doing that as an american. we should stop that immediately. two, if we give tax incentives the to the oil companies we can start drilling everywhere, opening the pipeline and sending oil, not only becoming energy-independent end but send gas to europe and make our

country richer and bankrupt russia and consequencely i think that's what we should do also by pumping more oil, you're going to lower the inflation rate, add more american jobs, and it's going to put our country in a better place. to answer andrew's question earlier without going to the military option, we can do an economic option which would put us in an absolutely fabulous place and virtually bankrupt russia so they couldn't do any more incursions on ukraine. >> let's start on this point i know you've had this don't buy any more russian crude let's put it in context. only 3% of our imports are coming from russia they're there because we have refineries that need certain levels of crude and they're

filling a gap from venezuela i don't argue with you i think it would be good to get rid of it. but let's explain how much it is and why it's there look it's a global market, a fungible commodity. it's going to go to different places there is right now the discount that's being paid for russian oil because nobody wants to get stuck with it or give money to the russians at this point, but let's look at this wholistically. how do we fix these things and look maybe more broadly. are you talking about shutting down global trade or is this simply a situation with the russians >> a situation simply with the russians the russians supply a correct amount you're correct, becky, it's only 3% for america, but it shouldn't be, in my humble opinion, one barrel for america the real issue is that the russian supply a tremendous amount of oil and natural gas to europe and we could replace russian oil with american oil. then to get to your question

about chairman powell, i think inflation with the price of oil where it is going to to go higher in both the gpi and indices. the way i calculate inflation is an average of the 2. we're going to go higher in the next round of data releases. on the other hand we have the war on ukraine and the fed has to be careful, very cautious raise it a quarter of a point, see how that goes. raise maybe another quarter. but i think if the fed gets overly aggressive not only in cutting back, but also cutting back on its inventory, what it owns right now, we could put ourselves in a difficult place and put ourselves in a

recession. and i'm sure the government and fed doesn't want to do that. >> mark, the chance of your plan getting anywhere in this administration is zero i like your plan, but i guess you know that. are you talking about the next administration we're not talking about taking the shackles off we want to put more shackles on. a lot of the climate initiatives again we heard last night are sort of designed to make it easier to keep hydrocarbons in the ground so that the price actually stays high so we transition to renewable energy you know that there's no chance of this happening by this administration after listening last night, do you think this has an ice cube's chance in hell of getting anywhere it doesn't. >> i would agree with you, joe, but that doesn't mean as

americans that we should stand up and try we have two new circumstances of war in europe, and a global crisis because of it involved in trade. and, yes, i agree with you not a snowball's chance, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try. >> john kerry said don't let the war distract not only did he say let's push back he said don't let the war get in the way of your climate initiatives. >> they're making a serious mistake in judgment. two, i would say and i think you might agree, if there's a change in congress coming up in november -- >> you need two more years >> can you walk and chew gum at the same time? >> no. either you leave it in the ground or you take it out. >> what i'm suggesting is it's not a binary choice.

>> it kind of is a binary choice. >> no. it may be a binary choice in the short term, there's no question, because you don't have enough energy but the idea that you can't actually scale it in a proper way and try to build clean energy on the other side and try to create a sentence structure to do that is crazy. >> companies are doing that right now. companies are doing that right now. they're doing just that. >> and unfortunately -- either fortunately or unfortunately they're doing it too fast. >> which is where they've pushed them. >> you have to figure out what is the timing, what are the investments that are necessary have everybody doing it in this ad hoc way that's part of the problem. >> no. if you're going to build pipe pipelines -- >> you have to make real

choices. >> what the companies need is a policy that stays pat. it doesn't flip and flop between administrations because the cop iks needs to be spend over de decades. >> i need to cut in. please don't say what i and the left want. >> why >> because that's not the case. >> you're not -- >> no. i find it offensive. the truth is there's a way to do this that's down the middle. >> what do you think, mark let's talk to the guest. i'm not your problem what do you think, mark? do you think we can do that? >> andrew, let me make a comment here. >> relax. >> hold on you relax. we're not going to do it this way every morning. we're just not, joe. >> suddenly we are >> can we. >> can we talk to our guest? >> e would love to talk to our guest. >> mark, do you think we can walk the fine line between what the ecoleft and this administration wants and producing harder how do you do both

>> two comments on what you all just said. one, we were energy independent recently we're not now. let's shoot for energy independence, and here's a way we can also do it. h we can say as we start shipping oil and gas to europe that 30% of that goes into green projects, green research so to andrew's point, it isn't totally binary we're doing both at the same time our country gets richer and we're going to bankrupt -- we would bankrupt russia if we cut off europe's need for their oil and natural gas, and that's what i'm proposing. >> right strategically it made sense. we're in a pickle for a lot of reasons. overall, it's going to be a long transition, much longer than we're hearing. >> we'll move along the best we

can. >> at least 50 more euros. so russia with a virtuous path to hell -- >> i don't think we need to tip the scale with every question that's asked and i don't think we have to think about it as a binary -- he just said it's not a binary situation the truth is you could advocate for nuclear energy i think that's something very worthy we don't talk about that enough in this country. i don't know if you think that's a lefty point of view or a righty point of view. >> nuclear energy was antifo foa long time. >> there's a way to do this as opposed to this sort of political right, left, whatever it's got to be. >> hey, mark thanks for joining us today. >> it's the world we're living in unfortunately it hampers us in a lot of ways. coming up, a major ceo feeling left out of last night's state of the union address as we head to break, check out crypto prices.

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secure payments, the tools you need, people who can help, we do that. talk to a clover business consultant today in last night's state of the union president biden touted the combined investments by ford and gm to build electric vehicles, however, he did not mention tesla. in an email the tesla ceo elon musk said nobody is watching the state of the union musk later tweeted directly to

president biden saying, tesla's created 50,000 u.s. jobs building electric vehicles and is investing more than double gm and ford combined. in a previous email to cnbc, musk accused biden of ignoring tesla. earlier musk tweeted calling biden a damp sock puppet in human form. coming up, pollster frank luntz is going to join us with his takeaways in the president's speech that's coming up next. later we're going to be hearing from the head of the chamber of commerce as well as suzanne clark as well as the "winners & losers.

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good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box. yesterday was a rough one for the markets. the dow was down by almost 600 points, declines of better than 1.5% for the nasdaq, but this morning you're seeing some green arrows dow futures up by some 250 points, the futures up by 126. last night at the state of the union president biden addressing the highest inflation rate in more than four decades >> of all the brightest spots in our economy, record jobs, too many families are struggling to keep up with their bills inflation is robbing them of gains they thought otherwise they would be able to feel i get it that's why my top priority is getting prices under control one way to fight inflation is drive down wages and make americans poor i think i have a better idea to fight inflation. lower your costs, not your

wages. >> joining us right now for his take, frank luntz. it's great to see you. walk us through it and tell us what you think the public thinks about what the public said f before we get there, what was your biggest takeaway? >> the banter back and forth between you all, i hope it was banter, we really are still a divided country, and i believe that the president had a brilliant opportunity yesterday to do what he said in the speech he talked about unity several times. that was obviously his key word for the first ten minutes, 12 minutes of the speech, and the rest of it offered a democratic list of democratic agenda items with one exception to me the most important point of last night is when people on both sides of the aisle started

chanting usa, usa together it was rare, spon tan yugs, clearly emotional, and everyone was on their feet, and the president stepped on the line. he actually cut it off he should have stepped back, literally stepped back and let the chamber take over. instead he attempted to continue i think it was a missed opportunity for him and that's how i felt about so much of yesterday. i had a group of 20 students from across the country leaning slightly democratic, and their conclusion is they were disappointed not that he didn't offer more specifics because nobody expects that from state of the union it's that he missed opportunity to lift people up, he missed the opportunity to make a difference, and so i think that today not a single polling number will change democrats will still be democrats, republicans will still be republicans, independents will still be disappointed feeling that they

have no home, and in the end, the focus on inflation was correct. it was the right priority for the american people, but i don't believe he offered any real solutions for it >> frank, biden touted his plan for corporations he said to make it in america. was that something -- he specifically pointed out intel's pat ginsenger was there. he was praised for a semi-conductor plant he's bill building in ohio i want to play it and then i want to get your reaction. >> maurkke more cars and semi-conductors in america, more innovation in america, more goods moving faster and cheaper in america, more jobs where you can earn a good living in america. instead of relying on foreign supply chains, let's make it in america. >> frank, what do you think? is that a winning argument

>> it's more than that it was the single best line of the entire speech and he delivered it well, and people in my group watching it was very -- responded very positively. it sounded actually a little trumpian it sounded like something donald trump would have said in one of his stiefate of the union speec, but you know it's exactly what the american people wanted to hear frankly from a speech perspective, that was the highlight of last night. >> we're going to go back to the issue of inflation because we were debating it earlier is there something you think he sh could have said or should have said >> he empathized he said, i get it, i hear you. that's at least a start to saying it from transitory to

making it part of his speech they're making more money, but they're spending more on two things that matter the most to american people, the food and the fuel but in the end, i don't think that he gave comfort to those who are struggling i don't think he gave them a path other than saying i recognize that there's a problem. andrew, what is most important here is that i didn't see any policy, any discussion other than that usa focus, which is smart. i didn't see anything that's going to change the political landscape one iota, and that's what a state of the union's supposed to do it's supposed to give you that energy to move forward on policies that you support. he gave the litany of policies, but i see no likelihood that joe manchin will change his vote, that kyrsten sinema will have championed her vote in the senate so we're going to be exactly where we are today after the speech as we were before the speech, and that's not good news for the biden administration. >> frank, if anything, the divide in the democratic party

seems like it's gotten wider between the centrists and those on the far left. with inflation in particular, it's such a tricky problem what should we be hearing from this president because the things we've heard to this point like releasing oil, we know it's sy symbolic it's not going to really help. what could he be doing >> from the business community, the people lynning on cnbc, last night's speech would be a failure. they don't like the regulatory issues, they don't like kolkting the same policies we're continuing right now from a public policy standpoint f that's the one clip we see is holding corporations accountable. from viewers of cnbc it will be a complete failure the idea that the president's asking people to pay more when they're not earning more is a nonstarter, and in the end, if you want genuine eununity, you v

to find policies that's supported by the three of you. if it's supported by the three of you, you know it will be supported by the public because you roepresent the public. >> the last line of the journal piece is the president needs to get some new advisers. i don't know who's advising, but if you go from 55% to the mid-30s -- and that's probably being generous given who the pollsters are -- wouldn't you say, i'm going to try some new things or sort of take the pulse of where the average american is rather than the people that seem to be controlling the narrative and his administration wouldn't you do that >> absolutely, joe that's a great way to look at it that has been a failure. the last 14 months have been a failure in bindden's attempt to- >> no reset. >> at all.

way tonight re-emphasize at all i don't believe there will be a single percentage movement based on the tens of millions of people who would have watched last night who would have gotten coverage today, and for the biden administration, he needs it and one more point i think we're moving without fail toward a republican house, maybe even a republican senate, and then the president will have no choice but to work with the opposition it would be far better for him to do it right now than it is for him to wait for november. >> okay. frank luntz, thank you as always appreciate it. >> thank you. still to come this morning, we will tell you why you might have to pay more at the box office to see the "batman" this weekend. that story is next. later, senator rob portman giving his take on ukraine and why he thinks sanctions should be even stricter. a remind e you can watch us or lteisn to us any time on the

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watching shares of theater chain amc entertainment today. the company reported a smaller than expected loss for the fourth quarter revenue actually jumped to $1.2 billion. that was up from $162 million a year ago the ceo says the company had a monetary war chest that was provided by shareholders last year, of course, referring to the stock craze. amc is testing variable pricing in the united states, which means releases like "the batman" could cost more than other films playing in the same theater at the same time. the company previously raised prices on weekends above midweek prices joe? coming up, prices hopping

$110 a barrel overnight. we're getting you ready for the opec meeting and the impact of the strategic meeting. that's next.

breaking news from exxon mobile, yet another company stepping away from its operations in moskow that's a project in russia it was operating on behalf of international consortium of japanese, indian and russian companies. they say in response to recent events in ukraine they are beginning the process to discontinue operations and developing steps to exit in one venture. they also say they'll be making no new investments in russia

the stock up by about 1.3%, but the company also detailing plans to go ahead with earnings and cash flow and energy transition. this is its annual investor day release they're putting out at this point they say they're going to be focused on cash flow growth. maybe the key here is the company plans to include annual structural reductions $9 billion a year building on $5 billion they've achieved to date additional reductions in that. and they also now label the company to pay down about $20 billion in debt. we'll continue to go through this, but right now that stock up by about 1.5% >> in keeping with this thought, oil prices are spiking again after members of the international energy agency agreed to release 60 million

barrels of reserve not having the intended effect yet. founder and director of research at energy aspects. and all the talk about some type of concerted effort to boycott russia, it's happening already in the marketplace, is it not? and i don't know what that means for the eventful price of oil, but it's headed higher >> oh, absolutely. you can see that right now prices are skyrocketing even with the ieae coming out with the release you can see the market saying that's not going to be enough because there are no energy sanctions, because of the banking sanctions we've estimated about 70% of russian exports, crude oil exports can't be touched that's about 3.8 million barrels per day. >> we tried to carve out energy, didn't we, i guess we were

worried about the effect on the economy. with the sanctions we didn't really target it, but you're saying with the unintended consequences it happened anyway. >> that's exactly right. i think the u.s. in particular has been very, very clear they don't want to include any energy sanctions because you can see that already i mean the panic we're seeing in the market right now $110 oil we're going to be going a lot higher and going to $150 and even higher than that because the only solver right now in this market is demand destruction, otherwise just the amount of supplies that could be potentially at risk pause of all these banking sanctions. we were supposed to get lists of banks exempt from s.w.i.f.t., and now there's been some headlines eu countries are saying there won't be exemptions so no one wants to take the risk of transacting with a russian entity if you know those banking sanctions are going to be coming or there's no clarification on who's going to be exempt huge ramifications

>> how many years -- months or years would it take to replace russia's contribution to global oil production >> well, russia produces 10 million barrels a day. it exports about half of that, 5 1/2. the problem is right now there isn't enough spare capacity in this world the issue is you cannot if -- if all of the russian exports can't get to market, even if you exclude the pipeline still flowing that is going to be well over 1 million barrels a day we can't replace it. we don't have enough oil and enough investment. >> if we assume this was going to be a protracted conflict that we're seeing, and we were

talking earlier about what do we do to russia if they take ukraine and keep it? so if these sanctions stay for -- if we try to isolate russia and ukraine for a year, two years and this oil is taken off the market how long do you think oil stays at $150 a barrel, which is your target how quickly could we ease the supply constraint so we bring it down from 150? doesn't seem like it'd be easy to do. >> it won't be i think the problem for the world economy is the amount of oil, gas, coal, metals, grains, that the world relies on, russia and ukraine, from them is enormous and i think that is the real challenge right now, that the solver is demand and to get demand down we will need to a recession. >> so we won't get into a shooting war, but the effect of isolating russia and ukraine on

the global economy you just forecast a recession you know, it's not a shooting war and it's not world war 3 but it certainly doesn't paint a very positive picture for what's going to happen over the next year >> the problem is we were already in a tight oil and gas market we've had record high gas prices we were already closing in on $100 oil, and now we've got this additional uncertainty this is why the u.s. has tried to exempt energy because it understands the impact it can have on consumers. right now i'm not saying that's going to happen because i do think you'll get some carve out, but right here, right now that's the risk >> that doesn't sound transitory, and just wondering how much of the overall inflation picture do you factor into $150 oil? where does that put cpi at in the united states permanently?

7%, 8% >> yeah, i think you are going to look at these numbers, absolutely and not just in the u.s. i think it's europe even more so given where gas prices are headed look, this is going to -- >> and the fed is going to try to -- thinks they can cure it. all the fed is going to do is probably cause some type of slow down in economic activity. they can't clear inflation >> exactly correct. and that's why i'm saying the only solver then becomes demand. >> amerita, thanks, i guess. thank you for bringing that news to us. >> thank you >> you're welcome. it is just after 7:00 on the east coast, and you are watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin, and we've got the line upcoming in the next two hours including chamber of commerce ceo suzan clark, republican senator rob

portman, melanie hobson and bill miller meantime let's get to dom chu looking at this morning's premarket movers >> let's kick things off with a check on upscale department store retailer nordstrom because that stock is surging. roughly 130,000 shares of volume profits and revenues came in better than expected but also issued a more up beat forecast for sales growth this year, nordstrom being helped in part by growth. next up shares of sofi up about 13% after the digital personal finance or fin tech company reported than a smaller than expected loss with better than expected revenues. it also gave a more up beat forecast thanks in part because of its operations. so those shares up 15% right now

premarket. salesforce up about 13% in shares right now premarket volume also gave better revenue guidance full year as a result roughly 50, 60 points is probably likely. andrew, i'll send things back over to you. >> meantime, we've got some news just breaking from ford. it's fascinating phil lebeau joins us with the latest >> andrew, this is what people have been talking about for the last couple of weeks would ford make a move to split-off its ev business, and it has done that though the business will remain in ford it's splitting off it's ev business into a separate unit within the company it'll be called ford model e ceo jim farly will run that

division what about the legacy business that will be ford blue, the internal combustion vehicles the bulk of the pbusiness at ford right now. let's talk about each of these divisions. with the ford model e, which is again the ev division, they're targeting production of 2 million evs by 2026 and also raising their guidance for 2026. by 2030 they expect half of their global sales to be electric vehicles. they've got a long way to go to catch up with tesla. but the bulk of ford's business will be for the foreseeable future internal combustion engine vehicles. also the f150 that's still a

critical part of ford's business so now they're changing their guidance both of these will be separate units. this will be a chance for ford to see how both of these businesses grow over time as they target more efficiency. the business targets that have changed for ford look like this. they're reaffirming their 2022 guidance they say at the high end of that range they could get up to 8% margins by the way they're targeting a 10% margin by 2026, so they're increasing their long-range targets going out to 2026 as they make this move, guys, to split-off the ev business into a separate unit run by jim farly, and he's talked about this that they need to be a more efficient company. there's too much waste there they believe by separating the

ev and internal combustion business they'll become a more efficient company. >> should investors in ford think to themselves there could be a moment whether it be a year or two or three from now where this is a company that actually splits apart >> possibly. possibly, andrew, but i don't think that's happening soon. they need in order to fund the overall development of internal evs. yes, jim farly says the mach e, that's a profitable vehicle. but it's not terribly profitable and they're going to have to invest heavily you can't cut off the internal combustion business and say this is a separate business 100% and

it's all evs if they were to do that they'd have steep hills to climb in terms of development costs, manufacturing. i wouldn't be surprised if we see them ultimately spin-off the ev business because of the growth potential there, but i don't think that's going to happen to anytime soon >> is this more about separating for business efficiencies or focus or also about making sure you're showing off to the street, hey, there's this very fancy ev business, that by the way ev businesses get higher multiples and so you should therefore give our stock higher. >> that's right. not only do they believe they can be more efficient with both of these businesses, and jim farly said last week there's a lot of waste in this company on the internal combosstion side of the business it's going to take some time to take out that waste, and he said they can get there

by splitting off these two, though, you do show investors and you do show wall street, hey, look, our ev business theoretically if they can make it as profitable, as separate as an ev business as other, v companies, hopefully if you're as profitable as tesla if you're a ford investor, yes, that's critical but it's going to take some time i do think jim farly believes this a clearer path which is a higher multiple. it's going to take some time but at least they can make it clear to wall street here's our growth potential within evs >> as i said at the top it's a fascinating decision and maybe to your point not just exposing the public market to put pressure on the legacy side of the business to get more efficient onto itself. that's interesting thanks >> fed chair jay powell is

testifying on capitol hill today. steve liesman joins us right now with a look at what to expect. and this is the biggest question facing the market right now, so what should we expect? >> it's a big one and the same question facing the market is the same what's facing powell. a market that was banking on six hikes now looking at four or maybe five three hikes in march, may and june priced into fed funds futures markets. markets are not paused for a pausing july a resumption of hikes in september and then you have that 66 probability of a fifth hike in december. that's very different from where we were when there was a lot of certainty. the russian invasion presents a series of problems for powell. greater economic uncertainty no one knows how any of this will play out, either war or economic war, higher commodity

inflation looks to be a given including higher oil and wheat prices along with metals that increases inflation but the higher prices go, it also could weigh on growth over time, and now you have lower bond yields. ian shepherdson writing. he doesn't see the fed backing off at least initially on these rate hikes ultimately most economists think there'll be economic effects in the west cutting off russia. >> steve, thank you. we're going to see you in just a little bit we've got the adp jobs report coming up. coming up major investors are going to be joining us coming up next how corporate america received the president's

"state of the union" wh commerce ceo suzan clark you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc ♪ (jazz music) ♪ (thank you, have a nice day.) ♪ (trumpet solo) ♪ (bell dings) (pages slipping) ♪ ♪ ♪ (trumpet solo) ♪ ♪ ♪ (typing) (bell dings) ♪ ♪ (cheering ♪ ♪ (typing) ♪ ♪ ♪(trumpet solo) ♪

make more cars and semiconductors in america, more infrastructure and ipivation in

america, more goods moving faster and cheaper in america, more jobs where you can earn a good living in america instead of relying on foreign supply chains let's make it in america >> that was president biden last night during his "state of the union" address for a closer look at what the business community wanted to hear and what they took out of that address let's welcome suzanne clark, the u.s. chamber of commerce president and ceo. what did you think overall of the "state of the union" address last night >> well, good morning. well, i think first of all we were all -- it was a strong moment against tyranny it was a strong moment in pro-democracy. and we all have to start right now thinking about ukraine if you think about the chamber of commerce we have chambers all over the country but the president of texas us from his hotel basement for the world to

not be silent and not forget about the business community there has been strong. and we have to start by saying that kind of bipartisan support pr pr pr pro-democracy last night was really important >> the first was looking at economic american independence looking at things like the supply chain what did you think on that point? >> you just played that clip about reliance on foreign supply chains and yet there was no mention of energy. no mention what does on national security or economic security to reverse that we need to do permitting reform, need to export more lng. we're going to start with made in america let's start with energy >> that's a debate we've been having over the last couple of weeks. what specifically, the

regulations you'd like to see cleanup quickly and the exporting of lng >> it doesn't let us be competitive with china, doesn't let us stand up to our adversaries but also doesn't let us help our allies or fight inflation here at home it's time to have a serious discussion and compromise and say we're a great country and we can do two things at a time. it starts with, you know, we've got some money on the infrastructure bill. let's get permitting reform done at the same time and open up our own production >> whit have been the biggest complaints from the business community on that front? i look at a state like california and they've got some incredibly difficult state regulations. is that what they want more focus on, or is it the federal

regulation that needs to come first? >> i think most of our members would say yes. but i think it's really about having a strategic plan, being able to plan more than two years out. you know, energy investments take time, take planning, take long-term capx i thought the president had the causes of inflation right when he cited the supply chain shortage but got to the solutions and didn't address either one and they impact energy production too, right? we've got to be able to have a viable workforce in the united states we can't 11 million open jobs and say we're going to start more production here >> i've heard so many different reasons why we have those 11 million openings right now,

everything from covid to the idea we're paying people to stay home the government payments for covid are ending, and maybe that makes a difference on things, but what else would you like to see the government doright now when it comes to those issues, the problem of trying to find qualified workers? >> we had a worker shortage before the pandemic, and you've covered this before, too we both have jobs without people and people without jobs. first of all, we need more legal immigration in the country this country is a great country and we can do two things we can secure our borders and let more workers in. the seasonal workers, we need in the summer so first of all we can let more people in

again, it comes pack to a longer term strategy, and we can get more people off the side lines, people who are not working now who we need to get into the work force. >> it's such an interesting time in this country. you've got businesses that are reporting incredible earnings. the economy's doing very well. anyone who wants a job basically can find a job and yet we have so many things we're concerned about with the outlook on inflation, with what's happening in ukraine and europe. how do your members feel right now? >> i think maybe confused. if you look at some of the things our members wanted to see and hear last night, it's about fighting government overreach. it's about people who believe in regulation but when they are doing too much, it cycles the economy in a way that both doesn't protect and find real harm but also does damage the competition executive order,

the overreach by the ftc and doj into looking backwards or fordwards and at a time the government isn't doing things only it can do no mention of trade really and no mention of tariffs. you could relieve some of the inflationary pressure tomorrow if you could get that done >> suzanne, just thinking who you represent, i just want to ask if you can distinguish between what you said -- and it's true we all want clean air, clean water. we don't like sulfur dioxide but that's nut the same as forcing power companies to pay

7, 8, 9 times as much for emissions without an act of congress, and it's up in front of the supreme court right now so these are -- is that something you say regulations are fine as long as we don't go overboard. it's certainly possible to go overboard and be well-intentioned and end up having it come back and hurt the people you're trying to help where it's like take us backwards. >> absolutely. it's why one of the great tools of the u.s. chamber is our litigation center. we spent a fair amount of time suing the government for overreach and getting involved in the supreme court to make sure -- >> do you think the epa should classify co2 as a pollutant? >> we think the regulatory agencies have gone too far

they're not elected. we have bureaucrats doing the work of congress and this needs to be put back into the appropriate branch. >> suzanne, thank you for being with us today. it's really good talking to you. >> thank you coming up, oil prices in focus this morning after yesterday's blistering rally last night the president announcing the u.s. will release 30 million barrels from its reserves on the market never does seem to help. they were expecting it another $5 the futures right now, though, are getting back some of yesterday's 600-point loss on the dow up about 234 points. nasdaq up about 100. "squawk box" coming right back ♪ ♪ ♪

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welcome back to squawk the feud between president joe biden and tesla ceo elon musk does not seem to be cooling anytime soon musk tweeted no one is watching the "state of the union," that comment came after tesla wasn't mentioned in president biden's speech the lack of mention by biden

leading into musk's latest comments coming after cnbc reported on the ongoing battle between the billionaire and the commander in chief of course unions -- in fact ford and gm are unionized may play into this. i don't understand why he doesn't just praise them more? if you're going to talk about growth in this country and the things that are innovative and what's really happening,there genuinely there is one guy who's actually doing it. there is and why you wouldn't just say this guy is pretty fabulous is sort of -- >> always in job creation and wealth creation for shareholders, i mean are we not happy tesla is an american company? >> maybe he just doesn't like him? >> well, it's become that probably from some of the tweets, but i think it began with union -- >> i think it started with the unions but it's evolved now into

a thing. >> a wet kleenex or something, what elon called the president >> that's what i mean. >> you think he's going to give him shout outs >> if you were the president, he should go fix this he should go fix this. why shouldn't he >> now you're speaking some truth to me. no, i do i like it. i agree with you there's no way to not cherish elon musk and what he's done we're talking about space at this point >> there you go, common ground when we come back phil lebeau with a bit of breaking news on boeing plus a break down on the price of oil and whether esg policies

have weakened energy production. "squawk box" will be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what was the first non-hamburger item introduced on mcdonald's menu the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues aflac! paul is about to suffer a shelf-inflicted injury. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac! maybe you could use the money to buy a step stool. i have a step stool. so why are you climbing a shelf? the stool's on top of the shelf, isn't it paul... [shelf crashing] yeah... ♪ aflac! official partner of march madness.

now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what was the first non-hamburger item introduced on mcdonald's menu the answer, the fillet o fish sandwich boeing announcing it will suspend some operations in russia phil lebeau jones us with more of the details on that phil, good morning again >> good morning, becky what essentially boeing has said it will do is it's going to be suspending its operations in moskow as well as in ukraine they've got a design studio over there. they do not have manufacturing within of those two countries. but because of the fighting going on in kyiv they have decided they will shutdown their operations there, focus being on making sure their employees in that region are as safe as

possible but the other issue that is getting a lot of attention is the decision by boeing to suspend all of its operation when it comes to servicing russian airplanes. they have said that they will not be servicing those airplanes. think of this similar to when we saw the embargoes as well as the restrictions on interactions with iranian businesses years ago. you did not see those iranian boeing aircraft getting parts, getting service. and yet they still operated. there is a third market out there not surprisingly where the iranian airlines went to when they needed to service those planes that is what at least for now is going to be happening with the russian airplane i asked boeing for a detailed number in terms of how many commercial airplanes are in russia there are a number of other smaller airlines as well they think it's probably between

200 and 350. hopefully they'll get a confirmed number a little later on today but, again, those planes will not be serviced by boeing any longer as the company suspends its operations in russia guys, back to you. >> phil, again, the longer-term implications for this, is this something that can be turned around quickly or would be turned around quickly, or could you watch a gradual fall because it's not just boeing it's airbus, too. >> right, in terms of how those planes operate in russia it's very similar to what we saw with iran for a number of years. the planes continue operating but you hear people making comments like you've got to go to iran and not many people did, can you trust the air crafts that were there? there were no major incidents i can remember but certainly you'd rather have airbus and boeing, and the manufacturer should be servicing the airplanes, but in this case boeing said we're not going to

be doing that for the foreseeable future >> phil, thank you very much still to come we're going to debate whether esg policies have weakened u.s. energy production. and later senator rob portman is going to join us stay tuned you're watching squawk live from the nasdaq market site in times square need to get your prescriptions refilled? capsule pharmacy can hand deliver your medications - today - for free. go to capsule.com. we handle your insurance. all you have to do is schedule delivery. go to capsule.com to get started in 15 seconds today.

we've got some news this morning. exon mobile, the company saying it will not invest in new developments in russia exxon operating that gas product on behalf of the international consortium of japanese, indian and russian companies. meantime prices topping $100 a barrel overnight pank of america now warning if russia's oil is sanctioned crude could go to $200 a barrel. joining us to discuss whether

esg policies have weakened energy production, the founder and ceo of the initiative and jonathan bailee. i know you have a view about this which is you think actually esg has been a -- i don't know at this point because i know you've been very critical of esg efforts even though you were at black rock, do you think this itself has created the problem >> i think it probably is having an effect on energy production but probably not in the way people think the traditional thought of esg it's going to affect the financing cost it changes the behavior of companies. i'm not sure that is really happening because for the most

part they're reshuffling i think on bank financing and maybe in europe it does, overall it continues to find the most productive returns because of legal obligations and incentives i to think e is, g has probably inserted a lot of uncertainty. they're worried about their score and inclusion in the esg fund but everyone knows we need to do more to reach, you know, climate goals. and if esg is the answer, i think it's a little bit nebulous, but it is hard to green light a project because you don't have the orderly transition >> i've been following you and i have to say i've been trying to follow your story over the past year, and you've been very public about your views that you think esg to some degree is soort of a whitewash, but at the

same time it sounds to me like you're saying it's a whitewash and noter not doing enough if it actually did enough would it create an ekven bigger problm to today >> i guess it depends on what you mean by enough probably by inserting uncertainty into what an orderly transition looks like. chinese auto makers know what they're dealing with, right? they have goal posts if esg is going to guide let's say the auto industry, so i think it's done a little bit supply by by -- >> i can't figure out if you think that uncertainty is a good thing or a bad thing you've been complaining that esg as i said is not doing enough so

i would think crow you think the uncertainty is a good thing since you're trying to move the needle on esg. >> i don't think any ceo would tell you with the kind of uncertainty associated with the climate goals. it's not creating the sort of orderly transition we're going to need to decarbonize >> the data shows u.s. gas production is at record highs. oil production is back to basically where it was pre-pandemic the u.s. exports about 12 million barrels a day. russia produces about ten, exports 6 million of that. so if we're going to have a debate about whether u.s. production is being constrained to such an extent it's going to

offset russian exports we go to about $6 million barrel a day. there simply aren't enough out there that could have generated $6 million a barrel a day. >> it makes the if that is the case is there a separate policy thing you think is preventing more production? >> firstly esg does help in terms of improving the efficiency of that production, inducing flaring, helping with health and safety for workers. let's talk about what would have made a difference? and those are things like lng exports so being able to do the investments, get out energy exports to europe. right now there's a challenge in

terms of the import capacity in europe even if you maxed out the import capacity you'd only be able to max out the demand for gas that's one the other is nuclear i think it was clearly a disastrous decision by the german government and others to phase-out ahead of schedule and i think we're seeing the consequences of that and perhaps some investors would have been on the side of trying to divest from nuclear and people need to rethink their positions on that. there are clearly actions but esg isn't about magically trying to hide 6 million a day -- >> that's the esg piece. i'm asking about the policy piece. "the wall street journal" has made a living in the past month of complaining that part of the problem is a biden administration and washington problem. is that -- is that the truth or not? >> look, i don't think the biden administration is at fault for

the lack of production you've seen the announcement just yesterday and their release of strategic reserves a healthful step. clearly what the biden administration is doing rightly is trying to accelerate the transition from electric vehicles, patry battery technologies and smart grid. >> if that's right and i'm not saying those steps are wrong -- maybe the answer is just limited in what you can do, you're looking at the price of oil up today not down after they made that announcement. >> well, look, oil was at $140 in 2008, right so we're not anywhere near where this could go to and i think there's clearly concern about the full implications of these sanctions and what exactly -- how this is going to unfold. so it's still a quite fast

evolving situation so i don't think we're at a position where this is stabilized yet i think we've got to give it another couple of weeks where this is played out >> that's pressure i don't think any politician on the world stage is going to be able to stand right now. >> i think that's very possible and clearly that's going to have implications for faem fact of the matterallies around the world. clearly the longer term effect of this it will help with the transition to low carbon technologies because the relative cost-effectiveness for things like solar, wind, storage and evs will make a difference but clearly this is going to be disruptive and painful for consumers. >> we're at all-time highs for oil and gas, what good are you with all your esg stuff? you haven't done one thing to dampen the demand or transition to renewables if we're at

all-time highs >> look, you've got to remember this isn't something investors consult a lot. this is something about policy makers need to play a role >> finally, you know, we're talking about policy, talking about what's led to this a lot of this is in terms of esg piece of it is that there are european pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and the like that have driven a lot of it, so there is a sort of policy piece, and then there's sort of a free market piece i put in air quotes because there's sort of this -- and i'm trying to understand what you think the right answer is in all of this >> i think ultimately you need a lot more clarity at the end of the day the type of investments over the -- we

can talk about the short-term energy prices and they're driven by sort of political considerations and what putin is doing and so on and so forth these production decisions are long-term ones that require investments on the part of the players in the market. and i think the biggest challenge esg introduces is a lack of certainty. a lot of them will sell answers, and i think that kind of uncertainty on the transition makes it difficult for long-term investments and easier to buy back stock and reduce capita getting back shareholders anyway >> look, i think a transition means there's going to be uncertainty. and jonathan, thank you. talk to you guys soon. >> when we return, navigating the markets. goldman sachs chief investment officer of private wealth management will join us to talk

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taking action to limit, put a hold on our exit activities in russia is growing following a wave of sanctions that were imposed after moskow's invasion of ukraine gm, har ley davidson, apple, boeing and others all saying they're either cutting or suspending sales and disney, sony and warner brothers all saying they'd pause the theatrical releases of upcoming films that list was added to exxon mobile saying it will make no further investments in russia at this point either when we return we're going to talk markets, the fed and much more stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is bccn

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volatility continuing to plague the markets as investors worry about the conflict in ukraine. inflation and rates, but our next guest says two investment themes which he outlines in her recent outlook remain valid. and joining us now is head of the investment strategy group at goldman sachs. she is also goldman's chief investment officer for wealth and consumer management. just on a scale of 1 to 10 for as long as i can remember

uncertainty has always been something that plagues the markets. what's the level of uncertainty right now? is it much worse than we've seen in prior years or is this just part of the job every day? >> uncertainty is certainly part of the job at all-times, and we've just come off a huge period of uncertainty with covid and the pandemic, so we tend to use history as a useful guide in terms of how to think about such shocks so right now if we think about geopolitical shocks, we've had many over the last several decades. so if you think about september 11, if you think about the iraqi invasion of kuwait, think about the iranian revolution and irany-iraq war, we need to look at what happened to markets at that time and what were the down drafts and what's similar and what's different so right now what's similar, for example, if you think about the iranian revolution and the

iranian-iraq war, and it ties into what you were discussing earlier about what happens if 7 million barrels of oil were brawn because u.s. puts sanctions on the exports or russia chooses to with hold the oil shipments. because exactly 10% of oil production was withdrawn from the markets. and when we look at what happened to the markets at that time and oil prices increased quite significantly, equity markets typically in the geopolitical down drafts around midteens, so 15, 16% september 11 the market was down from high to low but you may remember it was closed so europe was down about 16, 17%. so when we think about these types of experiences and think about where the volatility has peaked around 37, 38% it's

nothing like what we saw during the crisis over 80 or what we saw during the pandemic in march at around also 80. so for around 37, 38 yold see the peak we've seen is 10. we're probably at 5 right now. >> interesting so if we've already done 17, 18% can we come from the nasdaq or use the s&p? >> year to date the s&p is down about -- typically we tell our clients that current volatility is quite normal. you want to experience a 10% downdraft about 80% of the time. so clearly with all the ukraine-russia crisis and the uncertainty of whether it escalates justifies this kind of move in our perspective.

we recommend clients not try to trade it if you have days where the market has moved up or down 4% trying to trade it doesn't make sense. we're recommending clients rebalance their portfolios we recommend looking at some value sectors like the energy sector we have a tactical allocation to that for our clients we like banks, for example, in the euro zone. they have lagged over the last decade or so, and they got hit pretty badly from the crisis, but in fact we think there's huge up side they don't have that much exposure to russia so those are two sectors we recommend with clients so there's other things to do other than try to trade the s&p 500 in and out in this environment. >> i was fascinated by the analysis on how oil is affected. and that's -- historically that tells us a lot, and it doesn't

always repeat, but certainly it could be similar i'm wondering what the overall nature of what we might be witnessing if it goes beyond oil. by that i mean the invasion of kuwait, there was the iraq war this looks like something ukraine's the second biggest country in europe after russia this could be years. this could be the beginning of maybe even more -- taking even more territory that the soviet union used to have >> we would definitely agree with that assessment we think of the joint statement by the russians and the chinese in early february during the

opening of the baneijing olympi as a turning point we think that is clearly showing a demarcation. the west and democracies on one side and countries that don't actually believe and share those views and values on the other side and we think it is going to encourage clients to reconsider allocations to emerging markets. we have one of the lowest allocations in private wealth management to emerging markets for a moderate risk client we only have 2% and we think clients are going to question even having that much because they're saying we don't want to be invelsted in russia we don't want to be part of this you talked about esg and emerging markets failed miserably at the esg concept

so our view is actually we're going to see a reassessment and a shift in asset allocation and a big shift in both portfolio flows as well as when we're thinking about director investment, foreign direct investment in some of these countries. >> are you hiring any russian analysts and experts on china? does china finally become -- move back into our sphere a little bit more with this? since it matters to china whether this really dampens the global economy and global trade. should we be optimistic they don't continue with getting so close to russia at this point? >> obviously we're not geopolitical experts we really focus on investing, but there's no doubt that anybody in china's position would reassess the relationship. china's exports to u.s., to

europe and the u.k. are about 35% of their exports exports to russia are about 2% so when you're thinking of the economy and china wanting to make sure their economy doesn't weaken further, they certainly do not want to jeopardize that significant volume of experts. china had a current account surplus just under 300 billion with oil prices rising they could have a current account deficit, and they certainly need those additional in flows in terms of maintaining growth, in terms of monetary policy, in terms of fiscal policy, in terms of the stunlt of their currency. so there's no doubt they're rethinking what policies they should pursue at this point in time given their reliance on exports and the exports to the sort of western countries. >> we're certainly global, that's for sure. you need to hire some more of

those people >> we have some incredible regional advisers all over the world and we have exterm advisers with incredible experience. >> that's why it's good to be a technical analyst it's just like little flags and things, support, resistance. it is just after 8:00 a.m. eastern time on the east coast you're watching "squawk box" live from the market site in times square take a look at the futures. they are looking up this morning. up about 193 points, the s&p 500 up about 23 points but oil and the president's state of the union in focus this morning. we're going to speak to senator rob portman in just a minute, and later two big market names you cannot afford to miss.

bill miller will be here to talk about the fed, inflation and making money in this very volatile market. but right now we want to get right to dom chu with a look at what is moving this morning, and a lot is moving, dom >> a lot is moving, andrew, to your point here. we'll start off with a single mover coming on headlines and that's ford. ford shares up 5% in the premarket right now, and this is driven in large part by this announcement by ford it is going to hone in the focus of its operations to look at both electric vehicles and its inter internal combustion engines. one focussed on evs, one focused on ice two focal points in terms of industry groups that have been

very much front and center during this russia-ukraine issue we've been having, the war there that's going on. to that effect some of the bigering gainers and then the bank stocks. jp morgan, chase trying to find some stability citi group, however, still an under performer down about 0.3%. popular tickers searched by our readers maybe no surprise one of the single most search were sales stocks because of earnings, tesla also a top company, sofi technologies on earnings as well and apple shares by the way, folks, becky, the top two ticker search maybe no surprise for our listeners and viewers the ten-year treasury note yield remains far and away

the most searched ticker but the number two most searched is wti crude oil gives you an idea how that oil price is permeating. >> worth pointing out as the yield on the ten year maybe the one silver lining in all of that is that mortgage prices came back down, too 30-year mortgage was 4.18% on friday and then yesterday was the drop in yields 3.9%. >> it seems, crazy, becky, to think about this narrative you could have interest rates falling at a time when you have the strongest inflation narrative in decades going at this point >> ohio senator rob portman is once again urging the u.s. to step up sanctions on russia as it escalates attacks on ukraine. senator portman joins us this morning, a former trade

representative cochairs the senate ukraine caucus we carved out some energy parts of the sanctions already, rob. you want to put those in you want to add additional what are you talking about >> yeah, i think we've got to tighten up the sanctions overall and provide more military assistance and get it quickly. they're desperate right now. in terms of the trade side of this we've given russia preferential trade treatment, and i think we should cut it off. we did it back during the serbian wars we should say to them, you know, privilege not a right to get into our market. we don't do a lot of trade with russia and we she'll had a $60 billion trade deficit. this is something that actually would help with regard to the oil and gas situation, too i think it's untenable we're cutting off xl pipeline, the

keystone xl pipeline is about 600,000 barrels a day. let's do more here in america. let's do more on leasing on public lands let's change the biden administration approach which is stifling oil and gas production here in this country obviously it's a national security concern we see it that very clearly now. why are we sending them all these revenues to help their economy right now? we should be doing the opposite. >> senator, you're on the impression of reducing less. >> we could do a lot more if we were to unleash what we can do in this country including on public land. the administration is trying to literally shutoff new exploration and production on

public land. at the same time keystone xl pipe lin would have been 820,000 barrels per day more than accounting for all the russian oil coming into our country. so it just doesn't make any sense. and by the way the canadians feel the same way about it as you know they feel strongly energy is a national security issue and we want to work together >> would you put oil on the table for what we do to russia it seems like we've sort of tiptoed around it. it's happening anyway. russia is having trouble exporting. but would you just make it official, say we're not buying any? sphtorpedos began and we go to $250 a barrel in this country? >> well, we won't, joe >> doesn't that take time? >> well, it takes time but we're

going that way my home state of ohio we have natural gas production let's do what we can to sell lng liquefied natural gas so they don't have to eare lie on russia the concern is the export and import, but we could do a lot more and sending a lot of that to asia that could instead be sent to europe so i think we have to do energy as an advantage. >> when it's all said and done do you think china is going to be part of the problem or part of the solution in dealing with russia >> well, they have a choice.

they can be part of the solution, among other things the state central bank has now been sanctioned however, china has about 14% of those foreign reserves, so china is effectively allowing russian access right now to some of these reserves where other countries including the united states including by the way god bless and switzerland and other countries have been aligned. i do think china has specific opportunity right now to say they're not going to allow russian access to some of these foreign reserves they have in china. they have to make a decision are they going to stand for tyranny or stand for freedom >> before this happened we said, depending on how the west reacts to the russian invasion of ukraine, china is watching to see when they can take taiwan. does it make it more likely, less likely? is that still going to happen? obviously if they pretend they're horrified by russia's

actions then it's going to be hard for them to go into taiwan. >> yeah, well, look, they made a statement early on as you know saying that ukraine is not like taiwan i'm not sure what that meant there were some people thinking positively that means we're not going to do to taiwan what russia did to uyan so i think, you know, it may be mixed here so my hope is they're seeing this is terrible for russia's economy. it's something where the entire world is now isolating russia with the exception of a couple countries like china so this is not in their interest

my hope is overall they would say we need to pull back a bit in terms of our aggressive behavior >> senator, if the fed follows through and some say they need to even more now and if oil stays above 100 for an extinded period is there going to be stagflation? is that going to be our worst-case scenario in a possible recession in your view? >> i think that's the concern. i know chairman powell is going to speak today about this. the earlier report about interest rates going down relative to mortgage rates anyway is concerning in the sense we're trying to fight inflation here last night in this speech president biden had a chance to talk about what is causing inflation. he chose to focus only on the supply side, and oil prices is defl one of the problems you should allow natural gas and oil to be produced here.

everybody who looked at it pretty much and was objective said this is going to stimulate more economic growth, yes, but it's also going to stimulate a lot more inflation at a time when the economy is already improving. my concern was you kind of missed the opportunity to say we're going to do something to get this inflation under control rather than spending more which is what he proposed and said >> all right, senator, appreciate it. big east tournament coming up. not optimistic this year for next year, but good to see

youimably. >> i'm hopeful for a savior. i'm not happy with opening day being postponed, though. opening day, got to get it back on >> trie.erbl adp data is coming up in just a minute. "squawk box" will be right back. actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. (typing) (toddler laughs) ♪♪ (train whizzes by) ♪♪ (toddler babbling) ♪♪ (buzzing sound) ♪♪ (dog barks) ♪♪ (wine glasses clink) ♪♪ (typing)

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475,000s, close to the estimate of the street which is 400,000 but they revised the january payrolls to a positive 509,000 from a negative 301,000. unclear what to do with that in any event the good sector in february up 57,000, services a very strong really omicron rebound number, 417,000 in the service sector and there's the payroll for both the government and private sector looking at the situation really interesting situation going on there. small business losing 96,000 jobs medium pzs up 18,000 but large businesses up by more than half a million. this might be telling you it is large businesses able to pay the higher benefits that employers are demanding and small businesses are losing ground we'll have to follow up on that, but that is a very interesting

development. looking at by industry leisure and hospitality up by 17 #,0,00. and that's the kind of rebound you'd expect if we were coming back from a shutdown or slow down from the omicron wave or the virus wave now, i just want to -- unclear what to do with adp. by the way the official count has had huge errors too during this pandemic. we did get a report from home base which does back up the idea of strength in the labor market. saying on february jobs nearly every top 50 area saw month over month increases in employees working and hours worked the report is otherwise very strong relative to january so i think you can at least put back in the column of looks like it's going to be a good month for jobs from the adp report and

from some of the high frequency data we're looking at. >> thank you going to take a quick look maybe we won't you can see the futures. nasdaq up 37, s&p up 15. coming up we're joined by two giants really two giants in the value invest world to talk about navigating the current bout of market volatility the area investment president -- bill miller will be with us. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. so boost your bottom line by switching today. get the new samsung galaxy s22 series on comcast business mobile and for a limited time save up to $750 on a new samsung device with eligible trade-in. welcome back to "squawk box. adp's february report showing 475,000 private sector jobs added in the u.s. last month that's versus the estimate of 400,000. the futures are up about 146 points right now nasdaq up about 36 points. oil, though, keeps moving higher this morning touching nearly $110 per barrel here in the u.s. and we've learned opec is not going to be raising output any faster their meeting today has already ended. brian sullivan joins us with the latest brian? >> yeah, andrew. the meetings just keep getting

faster and faster. i mean the opec meeting we're waying for is already over in fact, the meeting ended in about ten minutes which is a new record each one of these meetings keep getting shorter and shorter. they're pretty much stamping their preplans either way opec is just going to stay the course with their preplanned plan of adding 400,000 barrels a day before they get back to market levels now, if you think about this the international agency just announced a coordinated global release, the u.s. talking about another strategic petroleum reserve release, so why is oil so high? here you go, number one there's

few if any buyers for russian crude, guys. let's say you even bought the oil and they have been buying some, good luck finding a ship to move it or it unless you completely own it yourself you're at risk of having your ship seized or your ship can't get into port with the oil. global demand, take a few million off and see what happens. speaking of demand, demand is strong united states we're closing in on nearly $21 million barrel a day of demand which is right where we were before covid hit goldman sachs out with a statement this morning saying any is not enough.

either way it's almost like the perfect trifecta of bad news or good news i guess if you're an oil contract with the oil market the consensus right now is the only thing that's going to stop oils climb or going to bring structures down. or the end to putin's war or some kind of massive iranian nuclear deal that puts their birls back legally on the market or some combination thereof. u.s. producers, yeah, they're slowly rauzing output but not aggressive to matter much because shareholders as you know will punish them if they start spending money. >> so you just said investors will punish if they start drilling more.

this goes back to the question of policy versus the market. the question is will they change >> drill, baby, drill. >> yeah, i think it will change. listen, here's the thing if they can start making money for shareholders -- they lost money for a decade these companies lost money, destroyed shareholder value for a decade esg comes along and says we'll not invest in fossil fuel teams. if you want people to invest in your stock, in other words have a functioning business unless you're willing to take exxon mobile private, if that's possible, you need the investors. you were stupid before, and now you're saying you're smarter and now you're acting stupid again that's really what it comes down to, and you can agree with the ceos they destroyed money for ten years.

i mean, they were bad stewards of capital, bad stewards of money, so will they raise their output yes, i think to a point but probably not to a level. >> everybody is driving, by the way. blame the u.s. driver, too >> i know we've got to go, brian, but are they doing that because of the investor class or policy has made it unattractive to do it we'll continue the conversation very soon, prian appreciate it. when we come back how is the fed going to respond to the economic uncertainty created by russia's invasion of ukraine we'll get into that as fed chair jay powell prepares to face house makers today stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc ♪♪

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fed chair jay powell's prepared house testimony for later this morning as our steve liesman is back with us. hi, steve. >> good morning, joe fed chair jay powell sat before the house finance services committee it is likely appropriate to raise the fed rate at the next meeting in the a couple of weeks. he says tighten the policy would include reducing the size of the fed's balance sheet. he says the effects of ukraine's invasion on it u.s. economy is,

quote, highly uncertain and the federal reserve will need to be nimble in responding inflation is running well above our long run objections, powell says he does inspect inflation to decline over this year reasons for that declean are easing supply constraints, moderating demand proton by fiscal stimulus, declining fiscal stimulus as well as tightening of monetary policy. he does say, however, that the fed is watching for risk for further upper pressure on inflation. on omicron he says the slow down seemed to have been briefed and the labor market is extremely tight, and they're seeing improvement across all parts of different industries i think at the end of the day this is pretty much what is expected here. the fed is on track for at least

a cup of rate hikes at the beginning and then to wait and see. >> 8:30, it's not the end of th day, steve we're right at the beginning of the day, right >> fair enough fair enough. i should know better than to use language sloppily with you >> exactly right >> we knew he was going to thread the needle pretty carefully here yeah, we think inflation is going to moderate throughout the course of the year but then say they're continuing to watch for signs to pick up does that mean thundershower watching hourly earnings, they're ready to move on this? the market has assumed 5 basis points is off the table. >> the way i read into that there's going to be some really lousy numbers to come. and that's a snl for the market that probably on the inflation front.

the number is coming march 10th that would be in about eight days from now are going obe pretty lousy and though another one after that before they succeed in any subsiding inflation. and you layer this ukraine invasion and i guess futures were running over $110 a bushel, at least that was last time i looked and he doesn't have any help coming he might have gotten for some of these other factors coming down. in all of these things you guys were talking about this earlier high oil prices so they end up helping somewhat on the inflation front. coming up, we've got a conversation with two expert value investors. bill miller from miller value partners are going to join us

live that is next and tomorrow don't miss a big interview right here on squawk with former tesreasury secretar steven mnuchin we're back after this. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed.

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because happy customers are music to our ears. genesys, we're behind every customer smile. yesterdayarial investments held its gathering of top value investments. collectively the participants at the events manage more than $350

billion in assets. joining us right now on a "squawk box" exclusive interview is mellody hobson, and yesterday she moderated the panel discussion and we have bill miller, the chairman and chief investment officer of miller valued partners and folks, welcome to both of you. it's good to see you guys. i know this had to be front and center for you all yesterday what's happening with inflation right now, and how do we expect the fed to react especially with the additional growth in inflation and inflationary pressures coming from the ukraine invasion whatdo people think right now? how do these investors get their heads around this st. >> we had seven great investors on the phone, all on the zoom, all value investors, all very well-known for what they do, and they had one belief in common which is that the fed would be

very, very hawkish this year i was surprised. in the group they expected they got before five and six alone. and they thought their hand was forced. >> let's talk about that because this is the biggest question the markets are grappling with right now. we just heard what jay powell is expected to say in his prepared remarks. do you think the fed is going to take a more aggressive stance because of what's just happened with ukraine, or are they more worried about the economy at this point or do they to keep a laser focus on inflation >> i think they are what they say they are which is data dependent. i think they clearly know they're behind the curve and they'll be raising rates this year i'm less worried about

inflation, becky, i guess than most people are because if you look ought toto the five year fed expectations it's high but that's not high historically and if you look at companies like the big steel company, steel prices expected to fall significantly next year. i think right now inflation is a problem and a problem for the american people, but also i think inflation is going to be dropping over the next several years. >> does that mean you are incredibly bullish on the market at this point? if inflation is not as big a deal and you're looking at the economy we have right now, that does seem a pretty good reason to buy >> a lautd r lot of stocks are down 50%

i think there's some opportunities there. they're not cheap. they're just cheaper than they were but there are a lot of cheap stocks out there tentaco was just bought out at double the price and that was four times earnings. the buy out price is four times earnings >> so when you look around are there things in the oil patch you're looking for, things in technology where are you thinking here's the best place to be right now amazon has lagged the market for the last 18 months what is new we went overweight oil spring a year ago, the first time in 35 years, and oil stocks right now are cheap. and they're very cheap at current oil prices but they're cheap at 60, 7$70 of oil and we

think there are great opportunities there. and they're buying back stock with a 20% return on investment capital. >> let's talk about what you heard from the panel yesterday how much problem does his pose, how much uncertainty does it add? and are people nervous about it? >> i think they're very concerned about the country and everyone expressed their heartfelt just support for the ukrainian people so first and foremost, i think when it comes to the markets we felt the biggest risk was to europe and to european recession potentially primarily because of energy prices and that that would really -- cutting off the russian supply could effect the european kauchbt nent in a way that could be pretty significant. europe was the follow on effect to putin's advances and that's where the greatest concern was beyond that they were fairly optimistic about the volatility and being able to use that to

their advantage in this current environment. people were leaning in to that volatility and buying on the margin lots and lots of names they thought were being cut off at the knees for probably unfairly, unduly punished. there was widespread consensus the one area they were excited about and that we were in leaning was travel and leisure there was a lot of enthusiasm for that space believing as the world reopens it'll continue to open in a big way and there's a tremendous amount of pent-up demand >> norwegian cruise lines is one of the big ones to you in that area have you been adding to that additionally >> yes the stock is at 18 and we think it's worth 50. >> other stocks you like in that arena, too, or is it really

norwegian you're focused on? >> no. delta, united has an interesting new strategy >> so you're adding to those right now? you think this eventually gets resolved or it's not an issue in those two headlines? >> everything in the headlines are concerning it will likely get resolved in the next yearo so, the asymmetry between what russia brings to pair and what ukraine are going to do, it's going to end one way another. russia will take it over or russia will find the pain too

big to bear and try to find negotiated sentiment >> if-out to setup this entire group would you say they're net buyers or net sellers? >> i think they're net sellers certainly they're seeing opportunity ibthis market, and this is what they do this is what value managers do they one other time they spent a lot of time talking about is media and just the disruption going on there, the continued consolidation. and some of those stocks, again, selling very low multiple relative to what they think those businesses are worth over the long-term. >> bill, let's talk a bit more about technology you mentioned amazon is your top holding but ualso have huge positions in meta and alphabet are those things you're buying at this point or things you're

adding to? do you think they're growth stocks that can withstand these pressures? >> meta is very, very cheap. it's cheaper than ibm and meta is actually growing. the issue is there is the capital allocation to the metaverse. we do have a big position in alphabet we've got been adding to it. we have a growing position in alibaba, which i think is the cheapest big cap stock in the world. and at a five-year low for a company that is a daminant global player. we think that's very cheap as well >> lhey, bill, you were early in crypto and bitcoin

what do you think this moment says or speaks to in terms of the future of crypto and what you think the price of bitcoin should be? >> that's a great question, andrew i think basically if you look at russia right now russia has 16% of their 637 billion in euros. now, i think we should do them harm but the point is from russia pfls point of view that's not a great position to be in. ful you're a country out there a nonreserve currency, you should think about saying maybe there's something else out there other countries cannot harm us with and that is impervious to

inflation or being manufactured in greater quantities. i think it's very bullish for bitcoin in particular. the rest of crypto is different. the rest of crypto shall be considered venture investments because they're all trying to solve their other problems >> did i read it correctly you now have 50% of bitcoin in december >> as you mentioned i've been in crypto for about ten years i haven't sold any i haven't put that much in there but i haven't sold any either. the minors of strong hold, digital, core, scientific, riot, marathon we have a lot of strong hold digital which is all renewable energy for bitcoin

>> bill, you've always been a person of long convictions and no exception with bitcoin and crypto i want to thank you guys both for being here today it's really great to see you and hope to have you back soon coming up, we're going to get jim cramer's first take on the trading day ahead. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc

get down to the new york stock exchange jim cramer joins us now. one thing we've had reoccurring, jim, this doesn't end any time

soon oil probably stays high for awhile that means inflation might even be less transitory, based on energy costs >> right. >> and that puts the fed in a bind and just sets up -- does it set up a secular period where, you know, we're going to be dealing with this for years to come with russia and vladimir putin? >> well, not if putin falls. not if the generals turn against putin, which, at a certain point, if there's too many casualties it's hard to imagine the generals staying with a guy. i don't know, joe. this is probably the gloomiest i've seen in a long time i think we're trying to price in the gloom. i listened to your coverage. you want to slit your throat that's why remove all knives, take off the shoe laces when i'm watching it's too gloomy. the idea everything will go bad, it doesn't fit that's why when i hear bill

miller, it's gratifying. facebook is cheaper than ibm you have to listen to him. he's not focussed on it. he's not he's focussed on value and i think itst a joy i don't know, joe. everything is supposed to go wrong, i guess, but what happens if it doesn't? what happens if something goes right. >> i've heard, you know, i don't know anecdotally some of the convoy, some of the russian soldiers are putting in their own gas tank so they're not moving forward they're not into this. maybe there's something to that. i don't know. >> they fired on civilians, even if they're russians. they wanted to level it. this is different. i mean, these are real cities with lots of people in them. i don't know whether the soldiers want to necessarily have a force of occupation i mean, imagine if you're occupying 44 million people, you know what it sounds like it sounds like america were to go into, say, iraq and turned

out they didn't like us and didn't welcome us as liberators. can you imagine? you know, imagine getting all the intel that said they like us and turned out they didn't it sounds like what happened in ukraine. i'm told he told the generals this is a walk when it's not a walk, i think that you start thinking, wow, we don't want to be iraq. that didn't work out too good. >> yeah. >> we don't to be afghanistan. i know the yachts are now in safe haven i don't know i don't think anything is going well for putin. and yet we still as if he's king of the world i don't think he's king of the world. i think he's nothing. >> he still has the super bowl -- >> he's a clept karat. >> he's got a nuke he's got a nuke. >> probably 10,000. >> everybody has nukes, my friends. everybody has nukes. >> okay. >> not looking for mankind's long-term. >> i deal with nukes in the bay of pigs and it's not so hot.

i know you know, andrew, everybody has got them we all think they don't. >> that's right. it's the expression about opinions thanks, jim. we'll see you in a few minutes. >> okay. crude prices traded over $112 a barrel. joining us now is craig are greg branch we've had a number of guests come on this morning and effectively say, look, price of oil is going to keep going up. up and up and up there's nothing that is going to stop it unless it recession effectively is brought on or something drastic, for example, the deal with iran or something like that. does that mean you go long on all the energy companies >> i mean, they certainly have a cyclical tail wind i don't think we need something drastic. saudi arabia and the uae have spare capacity they could bring online to mitigate some of this.

the question is will they? not only does he are a nuke as jim rightly pointed out, or you did, andrew. he was exporting 4. 3 million barrels a day. it was not going to be painless to wage economwarfare on this c. as long as we're in this geopolitical situation, it'll be painful. some of our traditional allies would ease that pain, if they so chose. i expect some point they will but you're exactly right, andrew as long as the commodity will remain elevated, those that stand to profit from it and those that can pass it on are relatively safe in this environment. >> so when you look through and even think beyond energy, though, in terms of what these -- what the price of oil is going to ultimately do to so many other by -- businesses in the inflationary effect. how do you see it to the extent

there's an opportunity to buy something or now things are getting into these levels, i have to think about selling things how do you handicap it >> well, my posture remains the same so on top of the geopolitical recall i'm concerned about lots of macro stuff going on. i believe the fed will raise 50 bits and i believe the plight to safety has given them liberty 0 to do that between that and inflation to remain high, i'm looking for companies that have demonstrated they can deliver the top line. and they can deliver the margin. and we have examples of this every day. so we just saw retail on fire because they demonstrated they can deliver the top line and the margin target, nordstrom, macy's, kohls. the question whether it was cyclical and not secular, as i believe it was the market will start rewarding those companies that show they can power through this macro and this geopolitical rather

insulated from the inflationary effects that will continue into the summer, i believe. and that they are deserving of the flows. >> greg, we want to thank you. we'll leave the conversation there. it's going to be -- i don't know we'll see if it's a wild they or not later. take a look at the futures before we head off right now looking at green on the screen but, of course, we also saw some green on the screen when it comes to energy prices some people might think it's not a good sign. dow up about 130 points. nasdaq up about 22 points. s&p 500 up about 12 points that's it for us on "squawk box. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" coming up after a quick break.

good wednesday morning welcome to squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber market watches the renewed russian assaults on ukraine. reacts to the state of the union address last night, and, of course, waits for the fed chair in front of house financial services next hour oil hits $112. road map begins with, quote, "badly miscalculated." the president vowing putin to pay a price. powell's inflation moment. the fed chair is set to send his clearest signal to congress that the central bank will begin raising rates this month >>d