goldman, the other one i own, and the -- i still think cautious, you don't cure the issues at the market today in one day. >> all right we're going to tweet out the financial trades by the way. we'll show you the markets you see them on the right. dow right now up 621 points. powell continuing his testimony on the hill which we continue to monitor. "the exchange" begins now. good morning fed chair powell saying he backs a rate hike at the meeting and the markets are shrugging it off, maybe embraces it well look at what else powell said today we'll look at how many hikes the market is expecting right now. and the u.s. benchmark for oil topping 112 a barrel pump prices are about to spike we're looking at how we got here, why it's not sinking the markets and how high we could

go >> a look at the actions u.s. companies from apple to nike to boeing have taken to avoid doing business with russia the impact it will have on their business, and on russia. but first dom has more on the market rebound up 628 >> we're picking up steam as we head toward the midday, early afternoon part of the trading session. 630-point gain for the dow 1 .9% to the up side the s&p up 80 points, 3486 the last trade and the nasdaq composite, the underperformer if you want to call it that today 13,707 is the last trade up 175 points. that's only about one and a quarter point advance. we're trying to find stability there over some of the recent downside volatility we've seen and big silloff yesterday. we have gotten back about all of it from the dow industrials if we were to close today the big story here for what's been leading the market at least on the downside and up side today are some of the bank stocks we're going to focus specifically on some of the regional banks in america

that -- the ones that don't have any real exposure outside our borders and not in places like russia and ukraine co-america, signature bank of america, zions, svb, up 6% to 8% and one of the big etfs, kre, up about 5% right now interest rates a part of that story. ten-year yields at the lows yesterday about 1.68%. we're up to 1 .84% right now interest rates may be a driver of the trade ford shares. a bid to that particular stock today. and this comes on the heels of headlines earlier this morning the shares are up 6% this morning the company says it's going to reorganize itself, reorganize, not splinter anything off reorganize into two different kind of units. one that focuses on ev and one on regular internal come bulgs cars that organization news, no split of the companies yet, has sent

the stock up 7%. since the highs that we saw back in january, the stock is still down roughly about 30% since those levels there watch the ev trades in relation to what's happening with ford. kelly, back to you >> that's a big story. there's a lot going on >> the fed chair wrapping up the congressional testimony a short while ago telling us he supports a 25-point rate hike in march. he also said most of the fed thinks the u.s. economy is already at full employment steve liesman has the highlights >> fed chair jay powell saying he'll support a 25 basis point rate hike. weighing in heavily on a debate that had taken place among fed officials in public. >> i do think it will be appropriate to raise our target wrench for the funds rate at the march meeting in a couple weeks. and i'm inclined to propose a

25-point basis point rate hike >> that's not evans, bullard, nester that's powell, the fed chair saying it. he said there was no obvious initial impact in funding markets from the ukraine invasion despite some fears it could create systemic risk he said the medium and longer term effects were unknown. it was a reason for the fed to go carefully >> we do intend to raise interest rates this year as we've said but as long as we're in this very sensitive phase of events in eastern europe, we're going to be careful in doing so. we're going to move -- avoid adding uncertainty >> powell called the ukraine conflict a potential game changer for the fed and the economy. but in the near-term, there is no plans to change the game. and the fed's plans to raise rates at the march meeting >> and i thought it was significant that he said that basically they all think the u.s. economy is at full employment because we're supposed to get there well into

a tightening cycle this one hasn't even started yet. >> right well, i'm going to push back a little bit on that because rates are up quite a bit. you know, 100 basis points or so, the fed hasn't formally raised rates but indicating it would raise rates, it caused to markets to tighten policy, and policy has tightened there's been a decline in the stock market and increase in rates. so the important part about that, i think, is that powell feels like he has room to maneuverer that he can raise rates without causing a lot of pain. you have 11 million job openings in this country. 6 million is about normal. so he has 5 million job openings he can destroy before he ends up destroying any jobs in a tightening cycle. >> that is one way to look at it steve, hopefully that's not the route we're going. their goal is to slow things down here. we appreciate it for you, steve liesman meanwhile, yields reversed

higher today they dropped 20 basis points yesterday. today rising by about the same amount let's get to rick santelli with more on the ten-year around 18 2. >> yes around 183 i think what's really fascinating today is as you look at the yield curve and put the day together, equities moving higher interest rates, everything was kind of feeding off each other all moving a bit higher with respect to equities. higher with respect to yields. price falling. but maybe the most important thing, fed fund futures also let's go to the charts here's a two-day of twos the twos challenged yesterday's high yield at 147, and they did, even though they backed off. as you go to the ten-year part, yesterday's high yield was 186 we didn't quite get there. so right there you see the yield curve flashing what's important here is the short maturities leading the way with rates higher and stocks up

and jay powell talking, that's important. and if you look at fed fund futures, or the yield curve, you can see here's tens to twos. it dropped down to 33 basis points today it's a fresh two-year flat, and we know flat always means that the fed funds and the fed are in play hot, hot, not, and here's the december fed fund futures. speaks volumes today alone, we're 27 basis points lower so 9855 versus 9882 yesterday. 27 basis points. we put in a tightening today that we took out of tightening and and a half to two tightens yesterday. it's very fluid. and fed fund futures last price like a week ago thursday for tesla, you can't trade that price, and you can't trade an old price in fed fund p changing and finally,y is at a

fresh 21-month low close today that means the dollar he a 20-plus month fresh close. >> great points. rick, so many moving pieces this week in the last 48 hours. rick santelli. the market may be marking down the expectations of rate hikes after the recent developments with ukraine, but our next guest is sticking with seven, one at every meeting this year. we have the chief economist at oxford economics kathy, what's your counterargument for those thinking they can only raise four or five times this year in. >> thank you i think you have to look at the inflation numbers. they're running well above expectations the fed's expectations and i think you have to listen to chair powell today. he was very unusually explicit in not only indicating he'd favor 25 basis points rate hike in march, and you got the sense that maybe he would be inclined to do more, but because of the

outbreak of war in ukraine, that he needed to temper that a little bit because the uncertainty. beyond that, you know, he said inflation is running too high. the labor market, as you were talking to steve about, is extremely tight. and demand remains strong. even though we have high inflation, consumers have been resilient. the fed has to resort to tamping down on demand >> it's interesting that jumped out to you the way it seized a lot of people. your reading from that which is that this is a fed official who maybe even wants to do more. why? what's the urgency what makes the situation need such a swift and prolonged response >> well, they're quite a bit behind the inflation curve at this point we're going to get consumer price data next week, and it very well could be close to 8 % or at 8 %.

we're seeing the commodity market, oil surge higher and we still have core goods crisis still with upward pressure because the supply chains are still not eradicated. and then you add the service prices which not to leave those out, put upward pressure they want to move quickly. and the more they can move quickly now, the hope would be that they can extend the expansion and economic gains and not really have to slam on the brakes and kill off the expansion. >> right we're hearing more talk about stagflation this week. do you think we're anywhere close to having a stagnant economy? >> no, not yet you know, growth isstill reall strong we think economic growth notwithstanding the higher energy prices, you could still get over 3% growth this year pretty easily. we're more worried about 2023, growth slows, but ironically,

then inflation should follow suit so it's a timing issue so we don't really see a stagflation environment. we see high inflation now, high growth, and then potentially slower growth and lower inflation in 2023. >> how much lower, though? and i'm glad you pointed out we still have this strong demand impulse, that it's not just hey, because of the ukraine crisis, what we know so far, we're all the sudden going to have a negative or couple negative quarters of gdp. even though you see the economy slowing, why don't that bring inflation back down to the fed's target >> it's moderating we had over 5% growth last year. you are slowing. so they are tightening into a slowing trend. but growth still 3% is well above the potential growth rate in the u.s. which we think is about 1.8. that all else equals still puts upward pressure on inflation, even though it should ease still going to remain pretty hot. and our concern is that it could

remain too sticky. i think it's best for the fed to move quickly now but come 2023, that's what the yield curve is sort of indicating, will the fed overdo it and will we see growth much slower and potentially, as demand slows, supply comes online, inflation goes below 2 % ironically in 2023 >> that would be a reversal from where we are the final question is for those who say listen, it's always kind of a cause -- cost benefit analysis, so why wouldn't the fed ere on the side of caution by taking it easy and going slow >> well, it's a good question. and i think they are going to move cautiously. but especially in light of the war. but chairman powell, i think rightfully so, opened the possibility that if inflation continues to run above expectation, that 50 basis point rate move at any given meeting is on the table. and i think that's right

they're far below neutral fed funds rate which we think is 2 %. they're still close to zero. they have a long way to go >> still stimulating the economy. great to have you. thank you for your reaction and analysis >> my pleasure thank you. >> kathy joining us from ox ford economics. oil prices have gone from being negative to years ago to above $100 a barrel. we'll look at how we got here and how high prices could spike. and a new doj -- ahead we'll hear from the deputy attorney general on the clep the capture. the dow up 662 points. the russell the strongest with a 2.5% gain. we're back in a moment

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welcome back oil prices have been soaring, especially over the past 24 hours. but even before that, we've seen a rapid turn around from the negative prices that prevailed in the depth of the pandemic how did the oil market get such whiplash and where are we headed next pippa has more >> it's been quite the turn around u.s. oil topped 112 per barrel for the first time since 2011.

less than two years ago oil was negative the question is how did we get here all right. starting in 2020, oil began the year around $60 but started to drift lower as the pandemic took hold, prompting some demand fears. then in march of 2020, a price war broke out between opec allies russia and saudi arabia sending prices tumbling. for what was then their second worst day ever but the bottom was far from in on april 20th, prices plunged into negative territory for the first time on record in a move that many thought was impossible the contractor settled at negative 3763 and part of that was trading mechanics. the move was notable, nonetheless. demand fell off a cliff and in response producers scaled back output which began the steady rise higher than by december when the fda authorized emergency use for vaccines wti was back around $45.

we saw prices continue to decline throughout the first half of 2021 with some speed bumps along the way as the vaccine was rolled out, as we got new indications about demand, and then in the summer of 2021, prices took a hit as the delta variant took hold once again prompting demand concerns in what was a fragile market that eventually turned a corner and by october, we were back to $80 on wti then came the omicron variant which sent wti tumbling 13% the day after thanksgiving as traders feared there would be a similar impact we saw with delta. things turned a corner and prices started climbing as tensions between russia and ukraine intensified. finally, last thursday oil surged above $100 as russia invaded. so that's how we got here. and, the next question is where do we go next? >> come over what's the latest you're hearing people say about that? i keep seeing numbers like 120,

150, 200 today >> exactly at this point it's really anybody's guess. i'm glad i'm not in the forecasting business, because we really don't know if things are changing so quickly. but the consensus seems to be demand destruction is the only thing that's going to turn this around levels on that vary up to 150. it's really an anybody's guess from here. >> well said thank you very much. so crude above $100 a barrel you might think it would be great for the energy sector. not necessarily. there are some companies better positioned to benefit than others but for more let's bring in paul, the lead analyst at sanke research these are prices so high, at some point destruction demand sets in. that's not good for producers. >> kind of i think it's important to remember the u.s. oil and gas companies have better strategies now. you do benefit from high prices for as long as they last but ultimately you're right. people worry that this is going to be damaging

ultimately for oil demand. maybe stock pricing alternative fuels. having said that, we've done a terrible job of developing alternative fuels over the past five years it's what got us into this situation arguably but yeah, basically that seems to be the concern. people taking profits at what they assume will be a near-term peak in prices >> and near-term peak in prices is sort of one or the other. right? if prices peak, you could see the prices trading heavy they still perform pretty well what -- who would you say is best positioned for the price we're at >> let me say i think if the russia/ukraine situation continues, we're going to lose more physical barrels of oil, because the way the contract are structured we've lost 3 million barrels a day. that could keep flowing through into markets and keep pressure to the up side if we get a sudden cease fire, if someone shoots putin, there's a couple things that could suddenly resolve the situation quite quickly.

but then again, you could end up in a quagmire or putin victory in which case we'll have a long-term desperate lack of while. in all the scenarios, they have excellent strategies regarding good assets and management 13% plus returns to shareholders every year i think that's worth buying even if people worry about the near-term. >> you think the best positioned names for the price rise, devin, diamondback, chevron >> yes >> and who would be in a way not best positioned or where might we first start to see head winds among the sector >> devin has been confusing people it's not trading that well it was a good performerand goo consensus long exxon is facing some relatively minor but nevertheless issues with the russia exposure it's going to have to take probably quite a bit down there.

chevron looks well-positioned with a bit of risk in kazakhstan that's probably okay most of the permian plays, conoco, phillips, all defensive. the guys in oil you think would struggle would be refiners because you -- the oil prices, the input costs and people stop driving as much or get defensive lbt oil loss refining doesn't do well in an elevated geo politically driven market. >> opec had an opportunity to try to step up and fill the supply response you're talking about and they didn't do it. what do you make of that and what options do they have to fill the gap from the russian barrels? >> well, there were issues with opec cutting back, but they didn't push as much oil back into the market as we thought they would there was a huge effect on demand from covid. we're also seeing there was significant reduction in

investment into covid in the upstream we stopped investing in oil and gas production capacity. that's very much coming home the russians themselves were struggling to produce to their capacity before this whole disaster so essentially there's been a major question mark over opec's capacity having said that, i'm surprised saudi and uae haven't done more to alleviate market fears here but they may be worried as i mentioned that this can get worse before it gets better. and they would be better sitting on their hands just to see how this complete disaster plays out. despite the early days >> an excellent point. it may help explain why the administration has been in industry publications saying to oil and gas producers, yes increase supply would be good and helpful. finally, i'll leave it with your point. you think we could be in this range we're seeing for oil, not for a week or month but possibly a couple of years?

>> i think it depends on how long this ukraine disaster goes. i mean, we've had a cease fire that was headlined it was going to be cease fire negotiations today. so it could end quickly. if putin really wants to take over the whole of ukraine, it could be a mess for a civil war situation for a couple of years, absolutely and the west clearly is going to keep severe pressure on him. that would effectively mean you lose the oil and russian gas it's going badly for putin he could have cease fire or get deposed. those are two short-term good outcomes to get us out of this mess quickly but unfortunately, there's always the risk it can keep going on and on. you see libya, for instance, where years of civil war that never get resolved. >> that's is uncertainty we have

to face. paul, it's good to have you. thank you so much. >> quick programming note. exxon's ceo will be on "squawk on the street" to talk about investor day, the energy market and their decision to pull out of russian operations. that's tomorrow around 10:30 a.m. eastern time. still ahead, the fallout for emerging markets as oil prices stake. we'll tell you which countries wall street thinks will emerge as the winners from the price spike and which ones could lose out big time corporate america cracking down in an unprecedented way on russia the headlines coming in every 30 seconds as the war on ukraine esca escalates. we'll look at what the fallout could be for the company and the russian people caterpillar with every component in the green we're back in a mome nt zero-commission trades for online u.s. stocks and etfs. and a commitment to get you the best price on every trade, which saved investors over $1.5 billion last year. that's decision tech. only from fidelity.

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breaking news out of washington on the ukraine crisis kayla with the story >> we're just getting news from the departments of state and commerce that the u.s. government is extending export controls to belarus in addition to russia. of course, russia has been using belarus which borders ukraine as a port or a place of location for a lot of the troops they've been using to invade ukraine, but now the biden administration saying that similar sanctions to what it's already done for russia limiting the exporting from russia of technological goods, defense capabilities as well as oil refieng capabilities to belarus will be blocked this was the action taken on russia now because of belarus's role, the administration six tending the sanctions to them aswell

>> ckayla, but are they extendin on russia the sanctions that relate to technology in particular >> reporter: those had already opinion announced, been announced a week ago that was part of the sanctions package that president biden announced when he made his speech just several days ago in the -- essentially the second wave of sanctions ratcheting up on russia last week before the invasion, before s.w.i.f.t. took place, before some of the other more stringent things took place. that's already been in the works from the commerce department but what's new is expansion to belarus. >> and is it new they're imposing full blocking sanctions on russian defense entitentities >> that was expected but we're getting more detail. that was expected. the u.s. has been trying to find a way to kneecap russia's defense capabilities as it tries to regroup and increase the a fighting around ukraine.

that is notable. but perhaps not entirely new >> caykayla, thank you the latest out of washington the dow up 647 points. every sector in the green. we're talking about 2% gains for the s&p. financials, energy, industrials leading the way. you can see the financials up 2 .8 % in a big rebound in the yields a big rebound in companies with revenue exposure to russia and ukraine. one of the top tech employers in ukraine. phillip morris, citi, also moving higher today. about 10% of phillip morris's revenue comes from the region. shares down 6% over the past week and tale of two retailers moving on quarterly results nordstrom up 40% best day since november of 2020 it gave bullish guidance, called out improvements in the off

price business flip side, abercrombie & fitch down 14% worst day since may of 2019 after missing estimates. now for a news update. here's what's happening at this hour. the united nations general assembly voting overwhelmingly to demand russia stop attacks in ukraine and withdraw all troops. the vote was held at the first emergency meeting of the general assembly since 1997. 498 troops have been killed in ukraine and reports of higher losses are, quote, misinformation u.s. officials urging skepticism about the russian figures. the estimates of russian deaths are actually in the thousands and ukraine yan president says nearly 6,000 russian troops have been killed. the ukrainian official says the russian advance on kharkiv has been stopped, but shelling and rocket attacks continue. a university building and a regional police department were

engulfed in kplams after a russian strike the ukrainian officials say russian attacks have killed 21 people and injured at least 112 over the last day. and on the news tonight, surging numbers of refugees leaving ukraine, including thousands of citizens from other countries. i'm look at the humanitarian challenges tonight thank you very much. my next guest says if you're looking to put money to work, look for companies that have great sheets that sell products needed

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welcome back, everybody. the dow continues to move to session highs. up 700 points. positive sounding talks that russia and ukraine this morning. also strong adp report and chair powell's comments about supporting a rate hike, all of it seems to be moving market sentiment my guest says think about a company like amd, good businesses, great balance sheets they sell products needed. amd down 20% this year

joining me is kim. you own these stocks but think people can feel comfortable buying here? >> i think so. especially noting that they've been -- well, all the semi conductors have been beat up this year. amd has gotten beaten up down 20% but bethink if you hold it for three to five years, you're going to be richly rewarded. i've been on the show talking hobbit how much i love tech. i love productive tech not games and facebook, but things that businesses are going to use to gain productivity. and amd's products fit in that area very well >> this market has been giving you lots of opportunities to buy stocks that have been down so tell me, again, what market risices you're looking for it's not just tech we know your interest in that sector, but you like 3m and pnc.

>> here's the unifying features of anything that's in our portfolio. first they have to have adequate management, and by that i mean management that says something, does something, and it's in the interest of shareholders it is that simple. a balance sheet that can support growth because in these tough times, you might find an acquisition or you want to invest in your business, and you have to have the financial wherewithal to do that and finally, and probably most importantly, a product line that people really want and i don't care if it was people or businesses, or if they're regular consumers. but i think that these are things that make for a good investment that lets you sleep at night because you know this company is going to grow over time regardless of the craziness that's happening in the world. >> yeah. and that craziness could continue for some time so what do you tell clients or at what point does it change your investing strategy, if it does at all?

>> it doesn't really, because even in let's say 2020, at the beginning of 2020, we were still using this method to try to find good stocks that are going to reward their owners. and i think it's timeless. i guess our style is growth at a reasonable price we're also looking for companies that are poised to grow, and all the names you mentioned, especially amd, we feel are poised to glow in the next three to five years because of the things that we say good product sets. good management. great balance sheets that's about it. >> is there anything you'd warn investors off of, whether it's the rush into energy right now or anything you sort of look at and think that's -- maybe not where i would be going >> sure. i think anything making headlines today is probably too late right? that it has moved. kind of like energy.

could energy go to 200 i heard a guest saying it could go anywhere. that might be true, but it might go back. we don't know. so i would do that and don't ever fall in love with technology never. that's probably my biggest thing. just because it's tool doesn't mean it's going to sell. >> says the woman who loves technology stocks. >> yes exactly >> from a different perspective. it's great to see you. kim forest with us freeze and seize that's the goal of the task force kleptocapture. an effort to enforce u.s. sanctions against russian oligarchs. toeyenalbo from the deputy atrn ger aut this effort next. wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi.

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the justice department setting up a task force to enforce sanction against russia. with deputy ag warning oligarchs

that the u.s. will use every tool to freeze and seize your criminal proceeds. we have more >> i sat down over the department of justice with the official leading this new operation which doj is calling task force kleptocapture i asked if the u.s. government knows the total dollar value of assets that are held by russian oligarchs inside the united states she says that's what they're going to find out. >> the sanctions allow us to freeze the assets and if we can trace them to criminal proceeds, to money laundering, we can go and seize those assets so putin's cronies can't profit from them. >> given that so much of the information that doj will need here is in private sector hands, i asked her what law enforcement needs from real estate professionals, lawyers, accountants in the united states who might know some of the information that doj is looking for. she said she wants the private sector to be on the lookout.

>> the message to financial institutions is be on alert. get your anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance programs in order. make sure they are functioning on all cylinders because if you fail to do so, the consequences can be severe >> kelly, it sounds like we're going to see significant asset seizures soon as a result of this lisa told me that what happens to those assets one they're in government hands could vary on oh case by case basis with some being held, some being sold off and some returned to rightful owners >> are there already assets in motion or as it's coming down? >> i asked about crypto currency, because this is a fear that russian oligarchs could transfer assets into crypto, move them around a little bit more quickly across borders. she said they are concerned about that also but they're working on that. she said there are recent cases including the arrest of the crypto couple in new york a

couple weeks ago it should remind everybody the law enforcement has the ability to track assets over the crypto block chain even though a lot of people who hold the assets might think they're invisible to law enforcement. >> exactly thank you so much. still ahead from apple to the auto makers, companies are punishing russia for their invasion of ukraine. the impact that could have on russia's economy and its people, next

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or maybe not in their own emotions. so show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com welcome back, everybody. the scope of corporate and cultural backlash against russia's invasion of ukraine is almost unprecedented just take a look at some of the action we've seen since last thursday when russia first invaded. major auto makers suspending production in russia or halting shipments of cars and motorcycles and parts. visa and mastercard preventing russian financial institutions from accessing their networks. twitter and meta blocking certain content, and apple curbing some services. netflix refusing to add russian channels to the service and variety reported just last hour it's also halted all future projects and acquisitions from the country.

youtube and roku restricting some content in the major movie studio how significant are all the corporate moves and what will the lasting impact be? the senior economist at the rand corporation is with us howard, it's great to have you here today and have you ever seen anything like this? >> no. the speed and the scope of these sanctions and the corporate reaction is unprecedented, especially considering the size of the russian economy it's about number 12 or 13 in the world. we've never really seen anything like this. >> one point which i'm not sure is your bailiwick, per se, that people seem to be discussing, is to what extent do you want to harm the russian people for the actions the leadership is taking? and in the removal of something like netflix, maybe not an issue, something like consumer staples you know, essential products, obviously things get more serious. what's your response to that

>> that's very important we took a look a few years ago about the consequence of increasings sanctions on russia c and determined most of the problems would fall on regular russians, small and medium-sized enterprises. all the russian economy will be affected, but certainly everyday russians who will depend on imports that are more expensive because of the exchange rate depreciation or businesses that rely on imports or inputs, will have a harder life in some ways, that's unavoidable. when you do broad sanctions, you're going to hit the entire economy. >> exactly speaking, with the currency nearly worthless and more and more difficult ability to get access to products or have the funds, what's the practical impact on the ground going to be? where will the russians turn for bartering or for products? will they come more from the marginal countries that can send supplies into russia what will it look like

>> right the currency has slightly rebounded. there was a big panic when these sanctions went on. it's resounded it has reappreciated a great deal russia is a very big agricultural producer. a very big agricultural exporter so food is not an issue, food is not real lay issue the consequences will generally be that the ability of people to consume imported items will decline. there won't be barter. the central bank is very well run and upon the announcement of the sanctions from the central bang, they swung into action very quickly by increasing liquidity to russian banks and other emergency measures such as regulatory forbearance so the central bank and the

russian regulators are keeping business going not completely normally but at least to keep things from collapsing so i think what we're going to see is a steady deterioration not a shock but this cans will be more expensive. business will slow down and bit by bit things will get worse. >> are u.s. companies shooting themselves in the foot if the conflict were to drag on >> yeah. you need to get inside the head of the russian leadership. will there be retribution against the companies. there are good reasons to do what they a doing. reputational risk. the world turned with great disfavor on anybody seeming to interact with the russian economy. will they be able to get the profits or the capital out when

they need it one of the things the central bank did is block external transfers of capital so at some point this will move to a different status my guess is that they will be welcomed back selectively into the russian economy because they like to consume western products. >> this is a test of american soft power how important is that? how big of a bargaining chip or point do you think it is when we're trying to avoid an all-out military response to what russia is doing here? >> this big is huge here because it illustrates the strength of the western democracy.

they've been shown to be weak or indecisive but you don't just drop sanctions packages instantly. you saw the vast coordination. the united states, canada, eu, france, japan and switzerland is unprecedented and thinking act the size of economies or power of economies it is true china is one, u.s. is two but putting the collective alliance together it has enormous power in the world. >> thank you for your thoughts >> you're welcome. good to be here. the invasion of ukraine has oil and gas prices surging bad news for some markets. we'll dig in next. take a look at the hackett of. its biggest holdings largely

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welcome back, everybody. oil spiking about 18, 19% now over the past week with a divide in emerging markets. let's get to seema mody for a look at winners and losers. >> it is a big win for brazil, argentina, south africa, mexico all seeing their respective stock markets outperform so far in 2022 but bad news for the emerging market countries that import the oil you can see them trading down in the year quantify to how much it costs, every time the price of oil jumps 10 bucks a barrel japan

and south korea pay additional $25 million a day. india pays an additional $140 billion a year for turkey over $2.2 billion and hit hard by inflation. st strategists say central banks will be under pressure to keep the currency strong. one option of course is to raise rates though that can also weigh on growth so the way to approach the problem is highly complicated and comes down to how -- where the currencies are trading epa the growth data looks like. >> we see that china has to pay up big from these -- is another with way to deal with this. >> right china is an importer and exporter of energy

they are in a better situation than india and turkey. they're sensitive to how high prices go from here. >> we have seen it for commodities with the same sort of dilemma apply for central banks and currencies where they have topay the higher prices >> yeah. nickel, palladium, india, the southeastern nations import them and putt in a vulnerable situation. this is different than strategists say these are the markets to invest in the picture can change quickly. >> absolutely. no a big call and some benefiting from this and for others a slog. we appreciate it with the price of oil way aft highs of the sessions markets are up

that does it for "the exchange" today. "power lunch" begins rite now. ♪ thank you. welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler why here's what's ahead. the fed head said rate hikes are on track f inflation at a 40-year high. noting the uncertainty caused by the russian-ukraine war. oil's rally. prices pushing past $112 a barrel is 150 next? we are going to speak to an energy policy expert saying yes. >> hi, everybody wall street in rally mode. the dow's up 667 bang on 2% right now the nasdaq up