good morning and good afternoon and good evening i'm brian sullivan it is 5:00 a.m. in new york. here is your top five at 5:00. the fed chair giving stock investors new hope with inflation and the playbook some investors are not convinced the fed is on top of the situation and hear bill gross's take on the economy and one-on-one coming up. more fallout from moscow as the list cutting ties grows.

this as the fighting rages as well as oil. crude is now at 14-year highs. there is still a lot of russian oil on the water coming up, we will show you eight ships filled with russian crude on the way to the u.s. you will not see this anywhere else this is all happening on thursday, march 3rd. this is "worldwide exchange. welcome and good morning thank you very much for joining us on cnbc here is how your money is setting up for thursday. stock futures are mildly higher. there is green across the board to the tune of .10%. all that following some positive momentum on wednesday. stocks snapping a two-day losing

streak s&p posting a 2% gain. you don't want to jinx it. it is marginally higher on the week nasdaq futures are also on the rise the ten-year yield is above 1.87%. in the 24-hour period, the yield on that bond is below 1.8% to above 1.8% a shift of stocks and bonds in the last 24 hours. if you thought that was dramatic, look at crude. wti overnight at one point hitting $115 a barrel. not there yet. it is at $113.50 crude oil now with a 25% increase this week alone trading at the highest level since 2008 brent crude is highest since 2013 all this as opec decided not to

boost output a lot of russian oil taken off the market and people are buying whenever and whatever price they can. from multiyear highs to all-time highs aluminum up 30% this year. you see the big spike. $3,700 per ton aluminum goes into so much not just consumer products like beer and soda cans, but cars like the f-150 what about the boeing airplanes? it takes so much for aluminum, the price of electric goes up and the cost of aluminum at record highs that is the kind of inflation of raw materials and commodities we have been talking about for some time let's talk about the equity

markets from london with rosanna lockwood rosanna, good morning. >> good morning, brian it started mixed and now negative in europe the ftse 100 off .30%. the dax is off and the spain ibex not doing well. this is despite the commodity prices and energy prices to help prop up the stocks in the indexes. let's breakdown sectors. let's go to travel and airlines. it is heavy here in europe this morning. particularly on lufthansa in germany. down 6.5%. unable to provide guidance based on the war in ukraine and the pandemic when you consider the satellite images you see with the planes around ukraine, they focus on routes through europe and it is impacting them with the energy prices and now energy while we're here.

the companies have been sharing relationships with russia. bp is one of them. sharing with rosneft up .50%. these are not major moves when you consider price and the way brent crude is creeping up this is a major with lng which is a trader. it does not have as much capacity in the markets. we think of the broader context of the conflict. brian. >> rosanna lockwood in london. thank you very much. now to the very latest on ukraine with the russian invasion entering the eighth day. russian forces continuing to lay siege of two strategic sea ports in the south the bombardment of the second biggest city of kharkiv continues in the air right now, the convoy which is 16 miles outside of the city

it is dealing with food and fuel shortage shortages. the world watching reports that russia has taken control of the southern city. it would be the first capital to fall during the invasion the u.n. refugee agency reporting 1 million people have fled ukraine since the invasion began. that would be the fastest exodus in 100 years as the fighting continues on the ground, the economic fallout continues to hit moscow and hopefully vladimir putin the russian stock market closed for the fourth straight day on fears it will collapse if it is opened more on the business side. mercedes-benz now saying it will suspend exports to russia and cease manufacturing in that nation until further notice. that follows a similar move from french renault two index providers are cutting

russian products from their lines. it is suspending share creations beginning today until further notice that is similar to blackrock this week and the russia etf ticker erus. also the london stock exchange is immediately suspending the trading of several russian based companies including the biggest companies in russia. despite the ongoing situation in ukraine and sky rocketing oil and inflation price, investors are focused on jay powell. in the hearing before the house financial services committee, the chairman laying out the fed will hike rates at the march meeting and leading the door open for inflation powell likely going 2 for 2 when

he he testifies in the senate today. we have bill gross out with a new book of "i'm still standing" about his times at pi mco. we asked how he sees all this playing out financially and militarily >> you know, we are the serious problem ahead of us. not just rising interest rates fiscally because we had a $4 trillion deficit which is helping consumer spending now, but we're entering a period in which the deficit has to be less than $4 trillion it is down to 1 trillion annualized that is what they used to call fiscal drag. that means if you spend $3 trillion less, that means

there's $3 trillion less going into the economy than it did last year. that's certainly a negative drag on the economy i suspect even before the war and higher oil prices that we're headed for a mild recession. >> i was going to ask about a possibility of recession in your book, by the way, you wrote months ago you didn't write it yesterday. you nailed the inflation story anything above 3% is threatening. will jay powell and the fed, i call them tight-rope walkers, will they navigate this without inducing a recession or could inflation put us in a recession? >> i don't think they can. i think they are handcuffed in what they can do i think they went so low and inflation now is so high on a historical basis it will be difficult to raise

interest rates too much. i say that simply from the standpoint of the realistic assumption that the stock market was driven in part, perhaps 30% to 40% by lower interest rates to the extent that you now raise them by 50 to 100 to 150 basis points -- let's say the 10-year above 2.20%. there is a significant impact on assets stocks especially. the interest rate discounts the forward stream of earnings i think that they will be very careful. i think they and other central banks are stuck in a low interest rate world and what does that mean it perhaps means stagflation and inflation above 3% to 4% for

some time now. >> is the market overestimating the pace of rate hikes >> no, i don't think so. i just looked at my screens this morning. markets that are much higher in terms of short-term rates this morning. there is about 125 basis points over the next 12 months. i think that's what they might do, you know, given positive influences in terms of the war and economy which i just said i don't think they will see. you know, they have to be very careful. that's a problem because they've made a mistake and powell is unwilling, as should any chairman be unwilling to admit a mistake. they have been down too long and

buying bonds too long from other central banks. it wasn't required in my opinion all the way to this point. >> do you miss those days where all of the quote smart money on wall street is saying interest rates end the year at 2% we touched 2 again, everybody runs to one side of the boat and like mike tyson has a plan or gets punched in the face. do you think rates could end this year be he low 2% >> they could depending upon the economy. there is an interesting thing here, brian. the last 30 to 40 years, there is a downward channel in terms of interest rates. ten years and 30 years that falls rather significantly in the same amount every year the ten-year treasury has a peak in the channel of 2.10%.

the 30-year at 2.35% this is persisted for the last 35 years why has it persisted it has because the economy in order to stay ahead at 4% to 5% nominal gdp required these low interest rates there is an argument made by scott menard of guggenheim until we penetrate this channel on the upside, you know, it is not necessarily a bear market in bonds. >> u.s. east coast guys, you have been mostly right over your east coast colleagues. let's wrap up with a couple of final questions. we know you are a great golfer you and amy are out golfing. you reference it in the book

you said the market was a bubble do you think the stock market is a bubble bill gross, right now, buy stocks >> i do. i buy mainly stocks or sell stocks or am basically involved in arbitrage from major companies like microsoft or oracle or so on. they have been profitable in the last 6 to 12 months. they don't go down for the most part i wouldn't be a buyer of stocks here i would be a cautious investor i own a lot of oil pipeline partnerships that are tax-free consult your tax adviser tax deferred they yield 9% to 10%

they are doing well in this environment. there are ways around this in terms of erarning a decent retun without the outright risk or selling bonds which we found in the last few weeks which involves significant risk as well i'm playing it cautious. i would advise others to not end 20% to 30% that is the hype that is always the result for the past few years the economy that doesn't grow significantly and an economy that doesn't or a market that doesn't exhibit significant momentum face it, young investors are momentum investors whether it is gamestop or amc or whatever i don't like once the momentum has been broken and has for the past three or four months

buy the dip syndrome is out. once momentum goes the other way, you do have a problem in terms of 10% to 20% future gains. >> well, thanks to bill gross. that was just part of our conversation with bill there is a lot more to it. to see it, head to cnbc.com/pro you will get his take on crypto and nfts and why he is still trading some of the meme stocks and more that is at cnbc.com/pro. we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange." more on the fighting in ukraine. we are live on the ground in lviv watch out voexlksvolkswagon how elon musk is moving in.

and amazon is stepping up. we will have the latest when "wex" returns. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

welcome or welcome back. let's get you up to date on the top corporate stories. a new investigation into tiktok and how it may be hurting kids and teens mental health. bertha coombs has that and more.

good morning >> reporter: good morning, brian. s.e.c. filing -- let's start with this story. peloton's founder and former ceo john foley sold $150 million of shares in the company to an investment firm backed by michael dell foley owns a big enough stake to maintain control of peloton. tesla's ceo elon musk will not stop the united auto workers from a vote at the ev company. he opposed a move. musk wrote, our real challenge is bay area has negative unemployment if we don't treat and compensate our awesome people well, they have many other offers and will just leave in other tesla news, the company reportedly won final approval from german authorities for the factor outside of berlin official announcement is set for

tomorrow and chamath palihapitiya sued over his virgin sale. he sold $10 million shares for $315 million the lawsuit alleges that richard branson made $301 million by selling his shares while the stock price was, ago tccording the complaint, artificially inf inflated the attorney general is investigating tiktok on the physical and mental health of teens. the ags want to know if they violated the consumer protection act. this is similar to what we saw with instagram >> let's see what they he find. bertha coombs, thank you very much. still ahead. your morning rbi and how that

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involved in a criminal conspiracy frances rivera has that and more good morning >> reporter: brian, good morning. shift here arriving last night in the capitol riot investigation. the january 6th committee is arguing that trump and allies were involved in a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election the sprawling court filing focuses on trump's lawyer john eastman. he wrote that mike pence could overturn the election. eastman claimed attorney/client privilege. the committee has reason to believe the material could show mr. trump engaged in a crime, conspiracy to defraud the united states trump and eastman have not been charged with a crime a spokesperson for mr. trump has not responded to our request for

comment. and eastman has a responsibility to protect confidences this is the effort to discharge this responsibility by accusing him of criminal activity we look forward to responding in due course for a thursday morning, brian, those are the headlines. >> and we appreciate it. frances rivera, thank you very much as we head to break on "worldwide exchange. check out amazon andy jazzy pledging support for ukraine. saying they will use the capabilities to get supplies to where they are needed and try to help beef up cyber defense for companies and governments in that region. just a reminder if you have not already, follow our podcast. if you miss the show, we get it. check out the podcast available on all major podcasting platforms. we are seeing prices

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caught between inflation jay powell and ukraine and investors looking at uncertain waters. ukraine fighting in the eighth day russia intensifying the bombardment of key cities. we have a live report ahead. can you believe there are eight ships right now filled with russian oil headed to america? we will show you where they're

headed and the buyers may be it is something you will see only on "worldwide exchange. it is thursday, march 3rd. welcome or welcome back. good thursday morning. it is 5:30 exactly on the east coast. thanks for joining us. here is how the markets and money look right now stock futures, i was going to say in the green you heard me say they're in the green. they heare not. we have to show you the futures. you don't need to or want to at this hour. they are thinly traded that one person makes a move and it shifts dow futures in the red nasdaq down .10% they are in the red. watching stocks today after

yesterday's move higher. in bonds, the ten-year yield back above 1.8%. that after the biggest jump in two years. a huge shift in bonds and stocks on wednesday what else is shifting higher crude oil. wti crude at one point overnight hit $115 a barrel. it is not there now. below that it's at $113.21. brent crude at $113. russian supplies getting cut off. demand is strong all of that is a toxic brew for increasing oil and gasoline. your corner gas station, you are seeing the price rise. all this happening as investors closely watch the federal reserve and the latest comments from jay powell. he seems committed to raise rates by 25 basis points at the march meeting. not everyone is convinced that powell is on top of it

in fact, during our conversation, pimco founder bill gross said powell and other central bankers around the world are playing scrcatch up >> they have to be careful that's a problem because they made a mistake and powell is unwilling as should any chairman be unwilling to admit a mistake. they stayed down too long. they have been buying bonds too long as other central banks. it wasn't required in my opinion all the way to this point. >> now that was a tiny portion of our interview with bill gross. we have 14 months where we he talked about the fed, inflation, his book, and what stocks he is buying catch the interview right now on cnbc.com/pro our thanks to bill

despite nearly complete worldwide opposition, vladimir putin continues his assault on ukraine. his war and it is his war. now entering the eight day russian forces laying siege on two sea ports, including the city of mariupol which is surrounded by russian troops all this with the bombardment of the second largest city kharkiv. matt bradley is joining us now good morning, matt what has happened overnight? >> reporter: brian, not necessarily overnight, but not much action. that is the story of this story. we're a week into the russian invasion of ukraine and the goals -- sorry, achievements have been modest that was overnight

kherson was taken. we have seen russian tanks rolling through the city they are controlling the administrative buildings ukrainians acknowledge that it has been taken this is the biggest city that has been taken by the russians so far a city of 300,000. it is smaller than where i am here in lviv it is important. that is because it sits to the south where the russians have made a lot of advancement compared to the north in kyiv where i was just last week where we started the war also it is situated around a canal that runs from mainland ukraine into the peninsula of crimea if you remember, the russians annexed in 2014. the canal was blocked by the ukrainians and we heard they unblocked it and farmers water

their crops. that is the main goal in the invasion of ukraine. brian. >> matt bradley in lviv. matt, we are glad you are there and safe matt, thank you. for more on russia's invasion on ukraine, let's bring in the ambassador lincoln bloomfield he is the chairman at the service center and served in the administration for national security affairs amba ambassador, welcome to the program. what is vladimir putin's way out here i will not say the worar is over here is the reality. everybody we talked to said even if putin comes in and takes the cities, ukrainians are not going to roll over he will have a guerilla war and hatred of the people for years that is unsustainable.

is there a face saving way out for vladimir putin to end this war? >> brian, that's the question, isn't it there are talks on the belarus border and it is not clear that putin is taking it seriously yet. if we look at it from the distance, we see that russia miscalculated. they told the soldiers that they were on an exercise and they were helping de-nazify ukraine they were in a hostile place an people were criticizing them their morale is low and military low. the more professional army would have come in with combined arms and done more sooner the question is does putin realize if he ends it soon, it

may be bettbetter, if he ends i later, he will be a war criminal forever. you will have 1 million refugees and more coming already crossed into poland and into the west. these are mostly women, children and elders because the men who brought them there have all gone back to fight. the difference is if these men die, there is nowhere for the refugees to go home. if the men live, if the apartments are still there, the refugees will go back. there is a big stake for europe in ending it sooner. i think there should be a policy consideration on war crimes that lists the chain of command not just putin, but the minister of defense and chief of the general staff and military chairman of command that is doing this damage to civilian areas. that is the way to get their attention. maybe they will pressure putin to end it sooner. >> is there a way, ambassador, to say, putin, you will lose

you probably already have lost you can bomb all the buildings you want you can kill ukrainians by the thousands, but there is no way out. you will not win this war even if you leave troops in the nation leave now and we will restor russia's place in the world. is there a way to get a message to him through china or belarus, as you say, go back. we're not going to forgive you, but we will restore russia's place in the world and reset otherwise, it seems like we're going down a black hole and it is hard to see that exit that leaves ukraine and its people in tact and vladimir putin, maybe we want this, but not with a bullet in his head >> i completely agree with you in fact, we are all grotesquely witnessing murder on social media.

we never had such an intimate look at devastating operation. there has to be a fig leaf or face saving way out or a foormul where ukraine says we will not have missiles on ukraine soil for a decade at least. we won't do exercises with nato on ukrainian soil. something like that. they may not want to do in the zelenskyy government, but this gives putin a face saving way. he needs a way out i think you are right. the message i would suggest is xi jinping of china. he must be horrified how quickly putin has fallen from the man who may be president for life. now a pariah for life. he is equal to bashar al assad >> ambassador, i'm sure he is

mentally ill, as has been suggested. he may have residue of long covid. there is an issue of what is happening in his head. he does not seem or look well. is there anybody in his inner circle for lack of a better term, resolve this situation >> if they think they will be charged with war crimes in the international criminal court, the general, staff and others, might run for cover. if the oligarchs think their assets will be seized and used to pay for the refugees and rebuilding, they may move faster the key is to proceed with policy and legislation to make those things possible and then breakthrough the fire walls and let the russian people know what is really happening. >> it is hopeful to think of a putin-free russia. let's see if there is an internal hero he in russia ambassador lincoln bloomfield.

i appreciate your views. thank you. on deck, with all of the sanctions and what we just talked about, there is a lot of russian oil on its way to america right now. coming up, we'll show you the eight ships carrying ought that crude and where they are headed and who the buyers may be. stick around every big idea every game changer every "how'd they do that?" starts here the blank page artists and writers know the tyranny of it well but so do developers, data scientists, ctos

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welcome back do you think the u.s. is done buying russian oil

think again. hard to believe, but right now there are eight super tankers filled with russian oil headed our way. they are coming to new york and new jersey we have been tracking these ships. we have more on who they are and where they may be headed this is a heck of a story. >> it sure is, brian amazing. i spoke with marine traffic asking where the ships are low he indicated located you have 247 ships traversing the world. there are eight coming here in the united states. in fact, one that might actually dock later today out of delaware you are looking at, like you said, new york, louisiana, houston. when you aring le looking at the buyers, it is the terminals to consider when you look at the port of lake charles, you are looking at

valero when you look at delaware, you are looking at pbf energy or delta. it is really interesting to see what's coming in and when. we are looking at stuff coming in today and the coming weeks. >> we were showing -- go back to the map. there are eight boats and showee one in the black sea one is up delaware to new jersey or philadelphia. it is hard to know, but is there an indication of who may ultimately own this oil? >> i spoke with andy lipaw based on where they are located in delaware, andy said that bpf is most likely the buyer of at least one or two tankers

you have one coming in today you have one going in in the next couple weeks. it really takes a bit of time to see where the oil is coming and from what part of russia and where in the vicinity of the ref refinery you will see who will be the buyer. >> i know there will be a lot of outrage at this, but let's be fair whoever the buyer, we don't know it seems logical based where the ships are headed this oil was bought likely months ago, correct? the tankers were probably loaded before this invasion these were not shipments that have been bought and loaded since putin invaded ukraine. there is no way in terms of the ti timing >> you are looking at least 30 days i did reach out to valero and pbf to see if they would be accepting these shipments.

they did not respond to our request for comment. it is important to know, none of the vessels are russian flagged. russia actually owns or operates these vessels. you are looking at liberia or denmark or norway. those countries own the vessels carrying the russian oil >> it will be fascinating to see if the ships are actually welcomed in or turned away what happens to the oil? we are talking hundreds of millions of dollars in russian oil on the way to the u.s. lori ann, thank you. >> thanks, brian folks, we will follow this story and ships as they eshe stm toward the u.s on deck, the morning rbi and why all you red sox fans are probably singing the blues lately, but it has nothing to do with baseball. we'll explain next

time for the morning rbi the random but interesting thing is squarely what we have been reporting on for some time sky rocketing oil costs. it about to get worse. check out coal prices are starting to spiral out of control here and in europe prices rising here, but trading in the netherlands, coal rose 180% yesterday one day. some concern there is simply not enough coal to make power. especially since 15% of the port is russian related traffic which like the oil tankers we talked about could be cut off why do you care? as we keep hammering, this will trickle down from some obscure

market here to the monthly electric bill. don't believe us check out what happened in new england in january the grid operator for new england released new information that average wholesale electricity prices for the month were $150 per mega watt hour let's compare. this is sticker shock. look at this january of this year, wholesale, $148 last year, $44 january of 2020, just over $26 this january, wholesale electricity costs 200% more than last year and that was about 65% more than in 2020. it is all because input costs like natural gas and coal got more expensive and the weather got colder politicians will blame this on russia easy, right?

don't be fooled. all this happened and prices spiked well before putin made his move let's hope the weather stays on the warmer side. if it doesn't, the power costs could surge again and your bill, already high, could go higher. by the way, feel free to call your congress person or senator and say this is not okay let's get right to our next guest for the look at the activity jon najarian he is a market rebellion contributor. new face to the network. jon najarian, good to have you back on. i was waiting for some comment on coal and whether -- great to have you on -- whether coal futures are on the rise. let's talk small caps. there is options activity in the iwm. >> there has, brian. i will also say that you are 100% right there's been massive speculation

in coal for weeks. from btu to a whole bunch of others council energy a lot of speculation in the coal space. to your point, iwm small caps are bouncing around along with the market whether it is 600 points up or down for the dow or whether this particular contract moves two or three up or down that has been happening. right now, they are betting next friday expiration, march 11th, there were a lot 21,000 that is 2.1 million of puts at the 194 strike we were right there above that last week. we since rallied back to 204 $10 higher than that all you need is a quick flash and the puts go in the money or explode to the upside because of the worries of whatever might be

transpiring on the screens >> you know there is a lot of the gold bugs out there that love gold. they get a lot of questions. i'm sure you do, jon why isn't gold higher what is happening with gold? it appears you are seeing bullishness under the hood on gold >> oh, yeah. gold has a nice move yesterday moving back to the all-time highs. it is doing so in baby steps if you want something that people are really gravitating toward during this, you go for crypto you will go to bitcoin up from $34,000 to $44,000 like that during the crypto winter all of a sudden all they needed was a little russian intervention gold has been moving up in a less volatile fashion. dp gold, silver, palladium.

there is big buying again, brian. the gdx at 3,550 there is still betting it will go higher. >> at this hour, jon, we are lucky we can get words out with more than two siyllabels i get it this is a gamble the etfs, you say they are investing, these can move quickly. as much as oils come up, you are also seeing bullish call buying in one of the double bull energy efts erx is the ticker. >> exactly i'm always lucky to be on with you, brian, but especially when you talk energy.

you are deeply immersed in that subject. we have seen crude oil rocket from $89 two days into the incursion to $114 and pushing higher this is a leverage that this erxx they get that extra oomph from swaps to give investors two times response to what they see with the movement in the energy sector they are buying out of the money. now they're in the money as of moments ago. they were buying the 50 calls in march. that was an extra week past regular march expiration they are buying the march 25th expiration at big numbers. anything in the energy space, whether natural gas, but also crude oil. they are putting on bets that

sanctions against russia and cutoffs because of the war and so forth will push prices higher, brian. >> amazing be careful on these double levers jon, i look forward to seeing you in two weeks at the market rebellion event at tpc sawgrass. anymore availability >> go to marketrebellion.com if there is a spot, we'll take you in we're looking for to tpc thank you, brian. >> keep the beer cold for me jon najarian, watching small caps and gold and bullish bets be careful the world moves quickly. that does for us on "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is next

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good morning fed chair jay powell giving hope to the markets telling us outright and congress the fed is still on track for a rate hike this month it said it would be 25 mystery is kind of gone. more fallout from moscow the list of companies cutting ties with russia and now oil at the highest price in 14 years. it is thursday, march 3rd, 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. welcom