good morning fed chair jay powell giving hope to the markets telling us outright and congress the fed is still on track for a rate hike this month it said it would be 25 mystery is kind of gone. more fallout from moscow the list of companies cutting ties with russia and now oil at the highest price in 14 years. it is thursday, march 3rd, 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. welcome to "squawk box" here

on cnbc. we are live from the times square market site in times squares. i'm rebecca quick alongside joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the dow is off 47 points s&p is down 11 points. the nasdaq off 58. that comes after stocks jumped higher yesterday the dow up close to 600 points the s&p was up by 1.8% the nasdaq was up 1.6% you can see the point in the chart where the markets took off yesterday. this happened as jay powell was speaking and talking about the 25 basis points that he is expecting this is going to be the next hike. it takes any of the questions out of the market about whether it is 50 basis points. this is what we will discuss with steve liesman in a moment if you look at treasury yields, it looks like the ten-year is yielding 1.85%

yields picked up from the low levels down below 1.7% this is the thing yesterday. if you were watching it as jay powell was speaking and making the comments the same with the yields and ten-year if will see it with the intraday yield. same thing picked up and started running as jay powell took that confusion out of the market. you are looking at crude oil prices yesterday, closing above $110. now up to $113.25. joe mentioned the highest level since 2008. >> let's update you on ukraine russian forces continue to pound ukraine's second largest city with air strikes as the offensive toward kyiv stalled. it hit infrastructure like police headquarters and university building. the defense ministry

acknowledging extensive losses ukraine's military killed 5,800 troops russian forces gained territory in the south and entered the black sea port city of kherson a lot happening. you probably read the op-ed. >> did you see this? this put me in a better mood about it former cia acting director this is about putin who insured his downfall he miscalculated what a liberal democracy does to a people for 30 years there is no way you will occupy. they will not go for a public government you will not occupy the place the size of texas and sooner or later, just like the last cold war, he will lose this cold war. in the money in reserves, that is a big number now, but that can go like this if he has no support with the rest of the

world. he has never been more of a pariah than he is now. people can miscalculate and be wrong. what other hope do we have i'm trying to take an optimistic viewpoint this will not stand. >> that would be a great exit ramp you then have to figure out the e exit ramp and does he go down with the ship? if you lose, you say i'm going down with a blaze of glory i'm throwing everything at it. >> hope that is not the case. >> that's what i'm saying. >> his notion of returning russia to the glory of the days of the soviet union was probably never possible he's so isolated, i think, from all of the yes men that no one clued him in on what the world is like. seeing a beautiful city like what do we call it

kyiv freedom square we have places that seem sacrasanct the bombs that suck the air out of people's lungs. >> how does he come back from this there is no easy way to say we will forgive what you have just done and how do you convince him not to double down maybe there is internal change >> the russian troops are saying what am i doing? there are children dying i don't want to do this. i don't know we'll get to steve the world's three container ship lines are holding bookings to and from russia in response to the ukraine invasion switzerland based and msc and maersk halting cargo bookings until further notice they will continue deliveries of

essential supplies of food and humanitarian goods and now mercedes-benz suspending ports to russia until further notice that follows the similar move, less so, to the oligarchs with renaults. and authorities say they seized a yacht linked to the oligarch igor sechin he is the current ceo of the oil giant rosneft. and corporate news now elon musk is open over the union organization talk from the company. gene simmons speculated he biden did not mention tesla because it is not union we said similar things

musk responded, our real challenge is the bay area has negative unemployment. if we don't treat and compensate our awesome talent, they have many options i would invite a union vote at their convenience. that's will do nothing to stop them tesla resisted at the california plant several years ago and the case the nlrb ruled it was violated so many of the workers are paid in stock, the truth is, they have been paid better on average and ford or gm doing the same jobs that are unionized. it would be interesting. >> the stock compensation. >> if you take the stock out, obviously, the comp is not the same >> stock compensation is a huge

motivation. >> it is there is a debate about that in terms of how the uaw wants to get stock from gm. some of the employees from gm -- part of it is a timing story if you are a gm employee circa 2010, you have done okay you got down after the crisis. i don't know we have more coming up on "squawk box. we will tell you about stock prices they are muted after yesterday's rally. we have a look at the biggest movers. and later, don't miss the interview with former treasury secretary steve mnuchin. get his take on china and russia and sanctions and more you don't want to miss it. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird.

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welcome back snowflake shares dropping 30% in extended trading the company reported the slowest rev revenue growth since 2014. that was down from 110% from the previous quarter it is acquiring start-up stream lit. shares of american eagle are

falling. the company warning its earnings would decline citing freight costs and tough comps. it expects a rebound in the second half of the year. and box reporting beats on the earnings and revenue side and raising guidance for the fourth straight quarter. businesses adopting cloud content. joining us now to weigh in on the biggest movers is siyl sylv jablonski. sylvia, it is a tale of two cities situation and tale of two stays in terms of the multiples that the investment community wants to apply to the companies given what seems to be the cloud or not the spector, but here inflation and then what the fed is going to do about it.

>> good morning. you have a tale of two cities. the most important thing is the russia and ukraine right now if we acknowledge that and the humanitarian impact and ship to markets, russia is 3.11% of the world economy. ukraine is less than .50%. one falls to the wayside i think we will go back to the fed being the biggest risk to the markets. to your point, the cloud and multiples, the froth has been taken off the market and those names. amazon and microsoft and google have 36% to 40% year over year growth in cloud business that is likely to continue the multiples are lower. these are good entry points. volatility aside, i think we look back and this is that fomo trade if you are not looking to get into it. >> you think 12 months out apple, amazon, microsoft,

alphabet all on the screen are they trading higher on profits or because of multiple expansion? >> i think they are trading higher on both earnings are strong. these companies are strong in terms of the cash position they have a lot of cash on the balance sheet. they have diversified businesses streaming or consumer dis discretionary. they have the participation in the future that is cloud growth to participation in virtual reality and augmented reality and the metaverse. the semiconductor memes have been beaten up these are things that power 5g again, power the secular themes of ai and augmented reality and electric vehicles. these are in the shadows right now because of the geopolitical

issues i think they end the year higher and they could lead the market this year. >> you think investors like what powell had to say. does that make sense to you? >> it does make sense. i think 50 bips is what was priced with russia and ukraine it would have stung, but expected i think yesterday gave the markets solace that the fed is still there. it wasn't like it was pulled out like the last couple months. what it sounded like is jay powell is rational there are two sides with the price of oil puts more pressure on inflation in the short-term on other hand, you don't want to spiral into a market recession if we heard 50 bips or higher and continuous 50 hikes at a time, that would set the market back i think yesterday in a sense was some reassurance for the market.

the volatility to the upside, that tells when me we have a strong chance of the second half being better and absorbed by investors. >> and in determination of the banks with the story by citigroup today based on the presentation yesterday, is your sense it is baked into the cake with the valuation with what the fed is going to do >> i think it is baked into the cake to some degree. just in terms of historical activities with financial stocks when rates actually start to rise a little bit higher and faster we see the rate hike in play you will see regional banks and mega banks pop on that news. >> okay. we'll leave it there sylvia, i appreciate it. >> thank you have a great day >> we will we'll try. it is hard recently with the back drop. coming up, social media feeds are inundated with links

to donate to charity to help ukraine. we'll tell you how to avoid the scams. really? head to break, here is a look at cryptocurrency you see bitcoin is down less than 1%. >> announcer: squawk picks is sponsored by wisdomtree. the modern alpha pioneer

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millions of people want to donate to help the ukrainian

people, but how do you make sure your donation is actually going to those in need and how can you make sure you are not getting scammed? cnbc correspondent sharon epperson has tips. >> reporter: as fighting between russia and ukraine intensifies, millions around world are eager to donate supplies and money to support humanitarian relief efforts. >> going through established charity. >> reporter: the non-profit expert says the desire to help those in need creates an opportunity for scammers go fund me's president says the platform has a team of 80 people to vet campaigns. >> it is a reality of fraudulent funds are part of the crisis like this. >> how do you know your money is getting to people immediately? >> we work with partners and local charities in collaboration

with the u.s. state department to understand what are valid recipients >> reporter: go fund me raised over $5 million in less than a week for ukrainian relief efforts and will refund any donations that are misused still, many experts say to stay away from appeals from individuals. stick with established organizations that know how to get aid to people in a crisis zone also be aware of new charitycha. they may have good intentions, but have no idea and before responding to a request, read reviews on the better business bureau giving alliance or charity navigate or. >> it can seem real or heartbreaking. do not fall for it >> reporter: if you think you see a scam, notify your state attorney general or secretary of state's office you can find the appropriate

contact on the national association on the charity web site and report to the ftc and internet crime complaint center. there is so much disinformation and the potential for pitfalls is higher. joe. >> sharon, while you were talking, i know you will address this, but i can imagine there is outright scams which is unbelievable i can imagine that even some -- some that pass muster, how do you know that 40% ends up going to the charity how do you know it is not 95% going to who you are trying to help administrative fees and all of the things you read. salaries >> that's why it is so important, joe, to go to those web sites that already have investigated and reviews of charities like charity navigate

er or the giving alliance. go to the web site of the company to make sure that you understand how they are getting the relief to the ukrainian people and refugees as soon as possible you want to work with companies that have been in a crisis zone and had these types of situations they've dealt with before there are great charities out there. >> that's the question it has been great to have so many of the go fund me sites pop up they happen locally. it is the quickest way to get money to people in need. when some of the sites pop up and it is not in your community and beyond that is when people have questions is this getting to the right place? >> reporter: there are organizations, globally, that have done this unfortunately, time and again. those are the ones you want to stick with >> sharon, thank you great to see you sharon epperson.

when we come back, will the surge in crude prices put a damper on the summer travel season we talk to the former ceo of spirit airlines after this you have no-fly zones at this point and cancellations as a result we will talk about all of these things when we come back as we head to break, look at the s&p 500 winners and losers from yesterday. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business keeping your business connected. , but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. on cnbc. take a look at the futures we look like we have red arrows after the market liked what we were seeing from jay powell. look at the dow off 7 points nasra nasdaq down 20 points. google will have employees

returned to the office on april 4th. they expect most people to come into the office three days a week and two days of remote work the company pushed back the january 10th deadline among the omicron usurge. you are seeing this across the country. >> the question was the tech companies changing the way they do business forever. >> airbnb is another this is a totally different world. >> you saw the governor of new york talking about how maybe the five-day workweek is gone forever. making admission of that saying we expect for workers to get back three-to-four days a week you have to come back. the city is reliant on it. >> it is interesting if monday and friday, for example, in the city around town are not busy times for people coming into the office, what does it mean for the restaurants midtown? >> how do you operate if it is

not five days a week >> you get to spread your costs over that for service. there are a lot of people. >> unless it changes fundamentally for revenue opportunities. a lot of areas got business on the weekends and no business on the weekend dweekdays >> the new york stock exchange is likely to go five days. there are places they suggested because of the aging population or whatever. four-day work weeks. >> a service industry that makes sense. get rid of the commute there are certain places that will not be able to be there every day. it makes sense if you are a

nurse or working in a restaurant or some place else, work ago l longer day. >> when do you appreciate those? when you get a three-day week? >> you are advocating for a five day week >> yes monday is the best day to have off. then it is a four-day week you hit the three-day weekend followed by a three-day week. >> monday is the best day off. >> i am not saying i don't like fridays off. >> wait a second >> i'm saying, it needs to be special. it can't be all the time >> christmas every day >> it can't be i feel like it is with, you know, being able to work with you two. >> thank you we appreciate it >> i'm going to start crying. airlines were hoping for a return to normal in the skies as travelers started booking spring and summer travel. now the war in ukraine has oil prices surging

that is putting pressure on the group. joining us to talk about it is ben valdanza he is the cohost of the podcast because he tells us all of the dirt every time we talk to him ben, this is one more thing for the airlines every time they are getting back on firm footing, there is something to rise up and say not yet. higher oil prices are here bad news for that is that means airlines have to raise prices. what does it do to demand? >> thank you, becky. great to be with you higher fuel prices normally mean higher partticket prices. the industry has been buoyed by higher ticket prices it is a tough position to be in to raise prices coming into the spring vacation season and going into the summer. there are obviously a lot of other issues that are being

caused by the war as well. you know, i used to work with someone who said the airline industry is the only industry where once in ten year event happens every quarter. >> right some of the other issues are laid out in the journal today. they talk with the cancellation of routes, that will be necessary as you get the no-fly zones as airlines can't fly over russian air space. i hadn't thought about it. to go around russia, because it is so huge, that adds a couple of hours in a lot of cases and a lot of fuel and labor time and maintenance costs. that adds up the end result is airlines have to cancel some of the flights, correct? >> that's right. in the last 24 hours, united announced suspending services from newark to india they don't want to fly over russia delta has canceled the markets

agreement with aero fly. part of the sky team alliance and still is delta said we'ring to not going to do that if you are a carrier like fin air, you can't fly anywhere in asia there is no way your planes can avoid russia from helsinki >> the question of higher oil prices is one that all of the ceos are thinking about. michael yo'leary of ryan air sas they need more production online quickly. that would help him. this would be the best way to hurt russia, too russia benefits when oil prices are this high. >> that is exactly hee know we e energy in the country. there is real pressure from the environmental side of things you say it is not good to do that it is tough. there are probably some people

on the political spectrum who like it when fuel prices are high and fewer people are traveling. that is not necessarily good for the economy, however you know, there are also companies like sabre, for example, which does the reservations for aerofly will they continue to do that? if not, they will have to stop operations in russia that would be another way to hit them there are also aircraft based in the u.s. who have airplanes leased to russian commercial and cargo airlines they have to determine what they will do with that equipment. >> good luck saying forget we want it back at this point. there are concerns that americans will not want to travel to europe this summer maybe they had been thinking of getting back to europe maybe that doesn't take place. i wonder if that is beneficial to the airlines that operate

mostly in the united states because if americans want to travel, they will go somewhere glsomewhere. >> it would be most of the lower cost airlines in the u.s. fly within the u.s. or fly south into the caribbean as opposed to europe i'm worried about that apprehension of customers, becky, that you mentioned. you're right anyone going to europe this summer has to think about what happens if this war expands or am i going to be safe there? i'm sure it is changing that the carriers that do fly to europe, american and united and delta has been looking forward to what was expecting to be a bullish summer, including trans atlantic travel. now putting a crimp on that because of this war will be harmful to them and it will help the domestic and caribbean and south american carriers sdplchlt

inn invasion started one wee ago today. has that started changes >> markets hate uncertainty, becky. fuel prices go up although there is not a shortage right now. there are fears it might in the same mode, passengers are cancelling european trips and what we don't see are people wh are cancelling or not going to do that. it is the uncertainty. will you plan the family vacation to italy or poland for example or turkey or a place like that when you aren't sure if you will be able to take it you will say i'll go elsewhere a lot of those cancellations we won't see bookings because the bookings won't happen. >> ben p, some airlines hedge

their bets are some in a better position to ride this out assuming this is short-term position? >> i don't think so, becky there are airlines that hedge and some that don't, the pattern of hedging far out may be four or five kquarters out is a hing thing of the past. airlines have learned the revenue sectiexposure is withine next 90 days they hedge closer in they know they can change price or change their capacity deployment to meet higher fuel prices farther out so you don't see any airlines hedged for december or first quarter of 2023 or even through the end of the summer. >> ben, thank you. we appreciate you walking us

through this again, giving us the inside scoop. great to see you >> thank you very much coming up, fed chair jay powell telling congress a rate hike is on the way we will talk more about the fed's plans after the break. later, dr. scott gottlieb will join us to talk about the white house's new covid plans. stay with us >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the professionals gateway to the world's markets.

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welcome back to "squawk box. u.s. equity futures are weaker dow futures down 45. s&p off 8.5. nasdaq off 36 points this comes after big gains yesterday when the dow was up almost 600 points. andrew. peloton founder and former ceo john foley sold $350 million shares to the investment firm. foley still holds a number of shares it is pleased to support the new ceo barry mccarthy who sits on

the board of the spac by the dell family office peloton stock lost 75% of value over the last year and raised gains from the pandemic. there is hope that barry will come in and turn things around he has interesting ideas about changing the business model of peloton. instead of buying a $2,000 bike or $4,000 treadmill, and paying a $40 monthly subscription, you may pay $80 a month to get -- that's the whole thing his whole thing. >> you can get to customers. >> if he can bring down the early price point and get more devices, effectively, in and make it a fully -- a netflix way to think about it. make it a full subscription business >> that makes sense. you take on the risk of the credit >> the credit and capital risk to doing it this way

we talk about credit risk. you know who is taking the credit risk on so far? the firm the huge beneficiary of peloton. most of the people buying pelotons are people with good credit. >> and would they do that themselves >> it is not a credit history thing. >> it would be if i give you $2,000 or $4,000 of equipment, i'm on the line and hoping you are a good credit risk >> you are going to own the device in the future, if they go through with this and they are testing it >> are you leasing it? >> it is not a lease it sis a subscription. the idea is if you love it -- >> if you quit, do they take the bike back? >> yes >> that is risky with exercise equipment. >> the idea is right now -- >> for every health care

machine. >> peloton has the lowest churn in the business. 1% >> that's because i already spent it. >> that's an interesting question >> if i get out of it like a gym membership >> before that was only 2% or 3%. >> cable it is one of the best turn businesses in town >> the subscription. >> correct >> these are people using it. >> i disagree. it is not just the fact you own the bike you can own the bike and not pay the fee. >> like you. >> okay. you are that example you are one of the small group whether it can work, i don't know if you were to do something like that, you need to potentially raise more money it will take a huge amount of capital. the idea is create a much larger marketplace. >> the retention levels is

impressive my question is if you expand beyond or to a larger group to retain that. >> that is the question. if they can do it, maybe -- >> if i spend $2,000 on a bike, i will use it every day. if i spend $80, i have a little less skin in the game. >> totally his argument is if you create a service that people love and people do seem to love what's on the screen >> they've already done that the question is can you do that and make sure they will keep paying you and not get the money? >> there may not be enough people who can buy it at $2,000. think about all of the people who are spending $150 or $200 a month? >> now consumers are flush and notspending on other stuff because they are not traveling

what happens when the economy turns? >> you are asking fair questions. >> i don't know what the answer is either. it is impressive if they have that low churn with exercise equipment. >> when i got married, i could stop dating and stop exercising. >> you picked a winner >> what's the point at this point? what difference does it make i did get good exercise with my peloton. i told you that. trying to get it up the stairs from the basement. it took eight people they are so heavy. they are well made you do not have the bike >> no, i have the treadmill. >> i would get the treadmill i didn't want a bunch of stuff on it i want to turn it on. i want somebody to tell me i need to do it. >> crack the whip. >> she's not always home jay powell met market expectations yesterday in the testimony. he proposed .25% rate hike

steve liesman, we found you. not your fault how are you? >> i'm doing well, joe. >> were you in my basement again? stay out of it >> i like the treadmill, joe it's good. it's good. look, here is what happened. a fight on the fed and the chair came in and settled it he was dealing with a fight over .25%. guys, put oil up in the back there. these are two really interesting things going on. oil and the ruble. oil at 113 he wants to go slower because of the war. the oil and the commodity story tells me the fed should go faster it is interesting, but that is going to be an inflationary impulsion. at the same time, the push me-pull me world in finance

economics right now, he should go slower because of the uncertainty. this is a really interesting moment the other thing that is happening is what is happening with the ruble 117 this morning it looked like the central bank of russia had ability. thank you, guys. 118. pardonaability 118, pardon me, moving around a lot. i thought the central bank had some means of coming in there. looked like they were coming in operations at 10:30 eerp time and doing some work, but now it's in free fall. as long as that stock market remains closed, guys, we have no idea what the real ruble value is essentially what would happen is people would sell stocks, take those and try to get it in dollars 1340u. one is the initial short-term economic impact which was concern about systemic racism we talked about that on monday, that seems to have passed.

here we are the longer term, meium term impacts from this those are things that create a lot of uncertainty >> this morning bill gross was on this morning on urld wide exchange and made some really interesting comments he was talking about how you're going to have $3 trillion of fiscal drag meaning $3 trillion less they're spending, and that's going to have a huge ijpact and slow things down. and then you have the fed moving pretty aggressively on top of that, is that the dangerous scenario we think, okay,inflation is

really hot >> when you say dangerous do you mean it would cause danger for the economy. >> obviously they want to slow the economy. they want to slow the economy by doing this no, they want to slow the economy by doing this, but the problem is they were speeding up the economy at the same time all this fiscal spending was being done so you've got the inflationary spe spending impact. >> let me take that piece by piece. first of all, there's four things that powell had said would bring down inflation i haven't finished my first cup of coffee so i'm not sure i can remember all four. one is that fed is going to be tightening, two he hopes supply chains will be clearing and four overall demand will be softening. so that helps him think you know what, i'm going to have a better

inflation story in the second half 06 the year whether or not that leads to a hard landing, he thinks he has a lot of room to play with unemployment and jobs. and let me give you the map i think as far as the fed sees this as a result of that he could push a little bit further on the job market you have 11 million job openings there's 5 million job openings, if the fed pushes down on the economy to slow it down, you have a big buckle. you might just get rid of job openings you're not going to get rid of jobs he feels like he has a big buffer there before he starts to really cut into jobs and economic growth with higher policy rates plus, becky, the way the economy's been going that's before the whole russia thing, you know, a lot of scope here for the fed to tighten up to 1,

1.5% i don't think it's that big a deal that's just me >> all right, steve. thank you. good to see you. we'll see you again, i'm sure. we're all focused on the fed when are we not? never. >> 2007 may have been the last time we were both focused on it. anyway when we come back ford announcing a business reorganization to focus on electric vehicles. we'll talk about the move with former ford ceo mark fields. that's next. and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league!

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ford, it latest auto maker to announce a shift into electric businesses. announcing three businesses. ford blue, ford model e, and ford fro joining us now is a former ceo at ford.

let's go into this market. do you applaud this move does it make sense >> yeah, absolutely. i think this is a really strong move by the ford team. listen, at the end of the day it's one of the largest reorganizations the company has ever done, and seems to all be about focus, speed and driving execution and transparency so i think they're going to have a better execution, and i think they're going to get better attention from investors >> do you know the details will it be a completely separate entities in terms of financing and everything else? >> well, from what i've seen first off is good news is starting next year looks like they're going report the results separately both for the model e business, the cocombustion business and ford pro business,

which is their commercial business the fact they're going to report these separately starting next year to investors i think is going to increase, you know, drive, accountability and u ultimately performance but there will be shared responsibilities here. from what i understand manufacturing will be led by the ford blue group and supporting model e business as they launch the product. there could be opportunities as they go out to raise capital for the model e business for things like green bonds which could result in a lower cost to capital. so we'll see what happens and i think others in the industry are going to replicate this to one degree or another. >> there are some reasons not to do it, though.

there's advantage to having all those things under one umbrella in terms of financing. do you think they had to consider that and just the positives outweigh the negatives? >> yeah, listen, at the of the day the clocked speed on who ford is competing against runs faster and they realize that one of the risks here the team is going to need to manage is the fact there has to be a lot of collaboration and the divisions are going to be depending on each other for delivery for example, you know, the model e business is going to deliver software and vehicle connectivity for the entire group. and the ford blue business is going to be supporting as i mentioned manufacturing for the model e group, so managing those tensions is going to be really important. and obviously the way to do that is have the right meeting and get the teams talking and

through company wide metrics for senior leaders so they're delivering on the total business not just each individual >> did it seem strange to you when tesla isn't invited to the white house for ev meetings? what do you attribute it to? is it as glaring to you or everyone else or you think hey, i think it's great >> i think it's wrong. listen, at the end of the day the administration in this country is all about how do we increase the adoption of electric vehicles to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, improve the environment, comba climate change and that requires everybody. it doesn't matter whether you're red, blue or anything in between. so i think that's just wrong, and at the end of the day it's the whole industry driving towards a sustainable transportation future. >> i think we're out of time, but, mark, it's a longer

conversation because i'd love to get your sense of this uaw issue. >> it's impossible to be out of time it's 7:01 and the show goes until 9:00 so that is not true >> they're trying to rush us on. >> they are. but since we're here i don't know if you also saw the comments elon musk made last night effectively saying uaw come on down, let's have a conversation and maybe a vote about the union. do you think that unionization is a good thing when it comes to the auto industry? do you think tesla should be unionized? >> well, listen, i can't speak for tesla. i can tell you my own experience with the uaw having dealt with them for many years. if you think back to the great recession when the market was falling apart, nobody knew what was going to happen in the future, et cetera, we worked

would our partners it's a very effective relationship but requires a lot of commitment on each side to open the dialogue, recognize the problems are there and then dealing with them together so i don't see it as a complete negative because my experience has been actually quite the opposite >> very good i had a few other ones maybe ford always had the -- i don't know if you saw ford versus ferrari, but it was v very insular jim farley i think has turned that around, has he not? okay, just a nod is good >> no. absolutely he's bringing in new talent which is very important. >> and this might help, too.

hard to move that stock, but 18 maybe headed high. thank you. good to have you on today. and we should say it's now past the top of the 7:00 hour. >> it certainly is >> let's get a quick check on the markets right now. futures look down about 32 points and nasdaq off about 41 points straight over to dom chu who's looking at this morning's premarket movers >> it is past the 7:00 hour but you have a lot more time in your show as you point out overall. the continued issues with russia and ukraine, thewer happening there right now, it's entering it's second week they're still to the up side going all the way back now more than decade highs in some areas

of the market wti crude is up about $112 per barrel. devon energy and chevron are two of the more active stocks right now. and the energy sector spider ticker xle is up about 0.6% right now. you can see 43,452 in the last trade there. we'll keep an eye on those crypto currencies, and then a dow component in and a stock on the move this morning in premarket intel shares down about 2.5% over the last year they're down

about 21% or so. the reason this morning driven in part by a downgrade, by analysts over morgan stanley now it goes to an underwent, the equivalent of asell rating they think they like the ceo's plans. they think this is turn around story, but it could take years to go out and could take a couple of years of sideways trading. not a lot of clear catalysts for the stock in the upcoming days. >> let's dig further into the move in crude. 130 on the way to who knows. >> yeah, who knows where it's going to stop hire i think you're starting to see these estimates come out where people are ratcheting up 120,

125. it's like an auction here's the latest. crude oil hitting $113 a barrel here overnight, more than 115 brent crude in europe overnight maybe as you said going higher one of the main reasons is that russian supplies are simply off the market you take a third of that off because you can't buy it and even if you could buy it you can't transport it because it could get seized because of all the sanctions. effectively russia could produce the oil all at once but unless your name is china or some organization, it's not quite a buyer panic but it's not far off pause you're thinking we need all this oil so let's buy it now and try to stock up. by the way, the flip side of this could be when this foolish war by putin ends maybe prices ratchet down pretty quickly

because there could be all this oil and supply remember its inflation adjusted high 2008 was about $180 in today's dollars. goldman sachs with some notes out saying the u.s. petroleum reserve releases not enough in the long-term. you can release it, blunt the speed but not going to bring it down i want to highlight this important fact, guys we talk about oil because of gasoline, i get it it's not just an oil story natural gas on the right thankfully we've got plenty of natural gas. we're not going to fell it as much natural gas spot prices in europe hitting 174 again yesterday. we're paying $6 here electricity prices soaring in

the u.k., soaring in europe and creeping up here as well by the way, as we reported on worldwide exchange 5:00 a.m. eastern, tune in, wholesale new englp 220% last year and last year up 65% from january 2020 if you live in boston or port smith or bahalvea your electric bill is soaring. prices are going to go up. multi-layered story. >> we've been painfully aware recently it tells us how many places you find either petroleum-based products or derivatives. it's almost ubiquitous i don't know how we expect to not continue to produce that, brian. it's troubling what substitutes are there

i guess there's synthetic subtutes for some of that stuff, maybe. >> if you like tesla's, their bodies are made of -- you guessed it, plastic. >> brian, nice job with bill gross today. that was a good interview. >> thank you, becky. coming up, the white house unveiling a new covid strategy dr. scott gottlieb is going to join us to break it down plus former secretary steven mnuchin on the strength of the economy, the fed's next move and latest investments in cyber security and whether he finally bought any bitcoin you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

the biden administration unveiling a new road map for handling covid-19. it shifts the focus from responding to the pandemic to a new normal focus on managing this disease those goals include a vaccine program for children under 5 if authorized by the fda. a test to treat initiative that would allow people to get free anti-viral pills immediately after testing for covid, and new authorizations to speed up vaccines joining us now to talk now is dr. scott gottlieb and scott, we definitely are shifting to normal mode.

things feel pretty good in most places of the country right now. what does this new plan do and do you think it is enough to be prepared for any variants that might come down the road? >> well, look, i think it's a very comprehensive vision how we deal with this as a sort of a constant menace. covid is not going to go away. i think we'll have to contend i think for the foreseeable future, for the spring and summer there's really nothing on the horizon that appears to be threat pg to change that trajectory right now the old notion always was you create a warm base of preparedness where you could scaleup manufacturing and the counter measures you would need to deal with a this. what they're planning to do broadly in this plan is continue to keep production on knowing

that probably a good portion is going to get wasted if prevalence doesn't pick up, but that way you always have a supply on hand if in case the virus starts to surge again. they're going to do the same thing for manufacturing of biological vaccine, investing in manufacturing capacity so you can scaleup production very quickly should you need new counter measures to deal with something new, a new variant and strain that comes on the horizon. >> those sound like good ideas and things we've learned maybe what's happened over the last six months or so do you think this is enough to address it all >> i think it's very comprehensive. this is sort of a grab bag of the best ideas that have been out there. there's other stuff in there that deals with the more immediate needs, for example, putting out granular specific guidance to schools and specifically addressed day care settings they're going to funnel money to schools to improve air

filtration and handling, provide for more testing programs for schools who want to use that as we get into the fall and winter. so they're addressing some of the challenges we had trying to keep some semblance of normalcy amid surging infections if we do get a big infection this winter you don't see the kind of intrusions in our lives as we saw in past wavesch so they're addressing that. another thing interesting in this plan is they talk a lot about creating more consumer facing portals to provide more information directly to consumers and people in the economy. so they're sort of giving up on cdc. that's a traditional role we look for cdc to do now they're looking at creating new structures for that.

and create a more consumer facing portal, consumer facing agency to deal with some of the day to day needs of people >> some of the things you mentioned i thought we'd already done a year ago, provide more money to schools to fix the filtration system. what happened? how come that money never got there in the first place sph. >> there's more in here and we never provided good guidance to schools. ultimately schools looked at agencies to get a play book on how to deal with infection i think this is restart some of the things we didn't do adequately the criticism you can say is why didn't the administration do this six months ago? but we learned a lot along the way and they're doing it now i give them credit for the fact they've laid out a comprehensive vision i'm hopeful we won't have to deal with a big surge of infection until we get into the

fall and winter. the tail risk is something comes along unexpected but we don't see anything on the horizon now, and that risk is being diminished over time as we acquire more and more immunity, and we have therapeutics that seem to be more effective if something comes along. >> one of the new variants of omicron or i don't know if it's being put into the omicron category anymore apparently doesn't show up on certain tests. i asked about that because as we stockpile tests is it possible we could get into a situation six months, eight months from now there is a new surge and nin fact the tests don't work? >> sits certainly possible i think what you've seen with some of the variants is diminished sensitivity, but the tests do pick up for the most part the variants we've seen spread it's possible something could come along you get a mutation in

the particular portion of the virus, the antigen that the test is picking up. but we should be able to reengi re-engineer these tests pretty quickly. i think it's less likely you're knowing to see the virus obviate but it's certainly possible. finally when you talk about the diminished ability of the tests to pick up variants i think you're talking about the pcr, not the antigen based tests. coming up we've got an exclusive interview with former treasury secretary steven mnuchin. we're going to talk ukraine, inflation, the fed, market, crypto everything is on the table plus elon musk accusing the president of ignoring tesla after the "state of the union. so should biden invite musk to the white house?

well, that's this week's topic "squawk box" coming right back [copy machine printing] ♪ ♪ who would've thought printing... could lead to growing trees. ♪

welcome back to "squawk box. tesla's ceo elon musk too upset with president biden this week pointing out the president didn't mention tesla in his "state of the union" speech. this after biden last summer

hosted an electric vehicle summit at the white house and didn't invite tesla. should the president invite musk to the white house that's the question of the morning. what do you think? >> andrew, of course he should and he should have mentioned tesla in the "state of the union. first of all that electric car summit at the white house last year where tesla wasn't invited, that was ridiculous. that's like having a white house smart phone summit and not inviting an apple or a white house e-commerce summit and leaving amazon out the company produced 300,000 evs last quarter alone i know this tesla thing might be politically fraught for the democratic party tesla, amazon, apple, google, microsoft as president you don't have to agree with everything a company does to bring it to the table especially tesla because elon musk's tesla is equipment essentially american an innovative company started by

a brash immigrant who had succeeded when the establishment said he'd fail >> that sounds great but aren't there risks as used think -- i could think of a lot of risks if elon musk shows up at the white house he's got a reputation to put it mildly for being maybe unpredictable. >> yes on the other hand the president is going to invite elon musk to the white house, he might as well make kanye west secretary of state kanye isologist an innovative, brash underdog that's why he can't invite musk over in november he tweeted that democratic senator bernie sanders, i keep forgetting you're alive he sparred with elizabeth warren over taxes because she likes to

point out he doesn't pay much in taxes even though he paid $11 billion last year. he called the president himself a damn sock puppet he calls me a damn sock puppet he can't even come over to my house. i think he's uninvited himself to the white house, though probably shouldn't expect friendly shot outs in presidential speeches. >> so it seems like there could be a way maybe to choreograph it >> you would think so, right maybe musk would have to signal morethan he has that he's willing to pay ball and maybe there could be some phone calls. i don't know it certainly seems to be under elon musk's skin a little bit. even though he says it's not a feud, i think they could probably work this out >> thank you, sir, on both hands. we learn something

>> i don't want to bring it up but we had a guy who actually lived there that said crazier stuff than elon, so i think we can handle it as a people, can we not >> oh, hat the white house >> yeah. we had a guy live there who says crazier stuff and still is than elon >> coming up don't misos our exclusive interview. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what rock band holds the title for top llseing album of all-time the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues lac pre-pain s how. aflac! paul is about to suffer a shelf-inflicted injury. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac! maybe you could use the money to buy a step stool. i have a step stool. so why are you climbing a shelf? the stool's on top of the shelf, isn't it paul...

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this takes 50 basis points completely off the table it takes the eight, nine hikes a lot of people were talking about for this year off the table and thankfully so because you heard me say that i didn't think the u.s. economy could accommodate and live with such slamming of the brakes of monetary policy.

it means the fed is going to have to be even more careful and is going to have to tolerate higher inflation >> that was mohamed alerin as you could see because we had his name right there it seems to be the right call so far at least about the fed, speaking yesterday at his congressional testimony. fed chair jay powell said he would propose a rate hike at the next meeting in two weeks. is that the right way to do it normally we have a pretty good idea on what was going to happen, but should you just come out and say it before it's actually done? doesn't give you a lot of flexibility if something changes between now and then, not that it will. >> he has little choice, joe

good morning had he said anything else it would have caused yet more market instability look, the fed is in a really tough place of its own making, i want to stress this is of its own making. the invasion has made the situation more complex and as you've heard me say there is no first policy option now. that has gone. it was there last year it's no longer available >> mohamed is it's -- the invasion is doing two things at once it made it less likely you do what you need to do but more important that you should have done it. that's messed up >> that's absolutely right and some of us were urging the fed to move when the window was open because you also built in

flexibility. that's a key issue in policymaking is look forward and ask yourself what sort of flexibility do i need? now they have the worst of everything because what you just mentioned is stagflation stagflation makes the fed's policy challenge that much more complex. >> yeah, that's -- i mentioned that a couple days ago i said the invasion is going to force the fed foochange its approach i could have seen either or both being true that they actually need to go slower, but it's more important now because inflation is going to be worse. let me move onto stocks because one of the things you've been saying for a while is that the dip buying mentality is very strong, maybe the strongest thing that the market had going for it and you would let us know when that was no longer the case. we're down a little, you know,

correction in some but i've also seen a lot of dip buying, unbelievable last week in terms of in a middle of a -- this looks totally different from a geopolitical event we've had in the last 20, 30 years. yet you're still seeing the market go off 6, 700 points for no reason right in the middle of an invasion. >> we saw it yesterday as well i mean, think about it russia intensifies its aggression on ukraine, oil prices went up, increases up 12% as of yesterday, 15% as of today in the last week. and yet the market rebounded very strongly. that is technical. that is the role of the buyers of the dip fearing they're going to miss an opportunity so it's still there. and despite markets being lower,

actually have been resilient in the face of everything that's changed in the environment this is a very uncertain environment. this is a very unpredictable environment. how long will that last? it's getting weaker, and it's getting weaker because the fed is not injecting liquidity starting from this month so i expect the strong technical to get a lot weaker this year, and that means more volatile markets but also means there's going to be more pressure on markets. >> i hear an echo. but it's not just interest rates and stocks that you can talk about and have some really smart opinions on. what's the deal -- what happened with putin is he so isolated that he totally miscalculated how the world was going to view this and what his chances were and what

the resistance would be? and how do you see it finally resolving itself hopefully not in a global conflict >> he made two huge miscalculations, and i think we're getting evidence of that every day. miscalculation number one is that there was a tactical and strategic opening for him to do this tactical, he looked around the west, we looked divided. the u.s. on the back of afghanistan, new chancellor in germany, presidential election in france. it looked like there was a tactical opening and then he thought it was a strategic imperative because ukraine had been moving more and more towards the west. and then he made a set of wrong assumptions. assumption number one he'd be welcome by the ukrainians. assumption number two that there'd be no resistance from the army of ukraine and from every day ukrainians

assumption number three, that the west would remain divided and another set of assumptions that have just proven to be wrong including about president zelenskyy. so he got himself in this situation, now ironically he's ended up creating -- he's now caused germany to increase spending, military spending. he's caused more military equipment to go into ukraine directly he has caused sweden and finland to talk about nato membership. so he's basically accelerated his nightmare, and that shows you this is a historic miscalculation >> i want to ask you about china, but i also was thinking -- oh, in the article that i talked about earlier, mohamed, it talks about how he saw weakness in our political divides in the west and in this country specifically and sort of that that gave an opportunity. doesn't realize liberal

democracies and freedom are messy. it's a messy process but that's what we -- that's what we're willing to deal with for freedom. and he's over there saying, you know, what he says goes. he thinks that's the way you're supposed to run a country? we're seeing the effects of that right now because that doesn't work and you need both sides to be vociferous in what they believe and then you arrive at something that works what about china china more or less likely after all this to make a move on taiwan, mohamed? >> less likely because chine haw has seen two things. one is that the west can unite and can impose a very strong economic and financial weapon which is sanctions on the payment system, on the central bank where and that cripples on economy as you see in russia and he's seen something else, that companies and consumers in the west are willing to self-sanction. if you look at what companies

and consumers have done they've gone beyond the official sanctioning in trying to penalize russia. so i think that will make it less likely. the risk we have and it's a serious risk, is that china will not work much hard on developing an alternative infrastructure to the global payment system, and that's something you've got to geet keep an eye on. >> very good, mohamed. i'm going to ask you again for something you probably don't any any better than anyone else. when do we get a resolution of this crisis? >> i don't know. before the war when people will say everything will be fine, ask one question what is the face saving way out for putin? and no one could come out with one. if you want to answer when does the atrocity end you have to say what is the off-ramp, and right now people can't figure out what the off-ramp is.

hopefully we will find one, but as of now there's no obvious off-ramp >> all right, mohamed. thank you. good to have you on. still to come this morning an update on the situation in ukraine and then an exclusive interview with former treasury secretary steven mnuchin we'll get his take on russia, sanctions america's put on the company, the steps american companies have taken to limit businesses there and the impact on oil and the global economy. "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square we'll be right back. (vo) right now, the big switch is happening across the country. small businesses are fed up with big bills and 5g maps that are mostly gaps— they're switching to t-mobile for business and getting more 5g bars in more places. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ultimate business plan... ...for the lowest price ever. plus, choose from the latest 5g smartphones— like a free samsung galaxy s22. so switch to the network that helps your business do more

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an update now on ukraine russian forces continue to pound kharkiv, which is ukraine's second largest city with air strikes even as the offensive toward kyiv stalled. air strikes hitting residential areas and civilian infrastructure including police headquarters and a university building for the first time russia's defense ministry acknowledged extensive losses in the seven days of this war saying 498 russian troops have been killed and nearly 1,600 injured ukraine says its military has

killed 5,800 russian troops. in the southern of the country russian forces entered the port sea territory. next we've got former treasury secretary steven mnuchin is here. he's going to join us live to discuss the situation of ukraine sanctions against russia, oil prices, inflation and so much more he's here in person and we'll be eaeaking to him right after the brk. "squawk box" returns after this. ♪♪ the chewy box comes today! calm down lenny. we just ordered it yesterday. (gasp) oven baked apple biscuits! hold me leroy! biscuits!! get fast free 1-3 day shipping when they just can't wait. chewy.

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning for more on what russia's invasion of ukraine means for the global economy, inflation and so much more joining us right now for an exclusive interview is steven mnuchin. great to see you >> great to see you as well. >> so you've been thinking about this and these issues for a very, very long time i'm curious now that we're in it and there's real questions about the sanctions that are put in place when it comes to ukraine if you were the treasury secretary what do you think you would do at this point >> well, let me just say, you know, we've thought about these situations for a long time this is not a scenario i ever contemplated we'd be in. i think the sanctions in general are very effective in general they're more effective half the timeo so i would have put in more sanctions

earlier on i don't think sanctions alone are in any way an off-ramp, but there's no question at this time i'd be putting on more sanctions. for example, i think the administration sanctions are swift and others are a good start. there's a carve out for oil and gas for russia i would immediately cease any payments in the energy markets, the fact that money is still going to russia through that is something i would stop immediately, and i would sanction more people that are around putin >> the costs of doing that and the biden administration has put that on the table, and there are others obviously that are pushing for that to the united states and to europe do you think would be what >> well, andrew, look, i've always said sanctions are very powerful tools and like other powerful tools the u.s. has a responsibility to use them carefully and there's no question that these are very effective because the u.s. is the reserve currency of the world and will be for the

foreseeable future i think we're not at a point where this is cost benefit analysis this is a huge human tragedy civilians are being killed, and we can't worry about what the economic costs are on oil prices we need to have a maximum pressure to stop this horrific situation. >> you mention s.w.i.f.t there are some that have commented including jamie diamond who said if you want to have sanctions you should have sanctions, but also raising questions about what taking down the s.w.i.f.t. system for them does because of the reserve currency issue, what it will do to china and everything else >> there's primary sanctions and secondary sanctions. the primary sanctions are designed for individuals and for companies. so, for example, in 2008 we sanctioned deripaska and rusol you also put on secondary

sanctions. what they say is nobanks can d business with primary sanctions or they get cut off from the dollar system, and that would include s.w.i.f.t. so the answer is i think there needs to be many more primary sanctions, both the s.w.i.f.t. sanctions as well. >> talking about primary sanctions, there's now an unclassified list i think you're a part of putting together in terms of oligarchs that could effectively be sanctioned. and now a task force that's in play to try to either reconstitute that list or sanction some of those people, how should we -- if we were to look at that list what should we -- what do you think should happen >> so let me first say i completely support the administration's move to create a task force, but that's not good enough. in 2017 congress passed the law which required the department of treasury to create both a classified list and unclassified list of both oligarchs and people that were close to putin.

the unclassified list merely was a list that said these are all the people that have net worth above acts were close to putin it wasn't intended to separate the good people from the bad people as in the classified report it was part of that when we designated rusoland others that report still exists i'd encourage the trashtry department to take out that report, update the classified material, send it to the president and issue sanctions immediately for those people that are aroundputep and then let the task force worry about going and confiscating assets. >> do you think sanctions on those individuals puts meaningful pressure on putin do you think they have true influence over him >> andrew, i think many of us did not expect this outcome. so since our original premise is

wrong it's hard to speculate exactly what will work as i said we could all go back and second guess what could have been done. that's not the point we all need to be working together on what can be done now. i think the most important thing quite frankly and the most influential thing would be for china to come out more aggressively and be part of the rest of the world in condemning this so i was pleased to see that the foreign secretary did -- foreign minister did come out and make some preliminary comments but the world needs to come together and abstaining at the u.n. is not good enough. >> do you think china is going to do that what do you think china's motivation is in all this? what do you think they really want >> i was one of the moderates in washington on this issue i think the china issue is a

complicated issue. there's both risks and opportunities. there's things we don't agree with the leadership on now's the time to reach out to china and encourage china and this is the whole world not just the u.s. to come to the table and stop this atrocity >> you've met with putin before, so when you think what motivates him and may also think about an off-ramp at this point and he said it's very hard to see what that off-ramp looks like to the extent you can imagine an off-ramp to this situation we're in now, what we could have done but what could we do, what does it look like >> i had an opportunity to meet several times with president trump. from my interaction i never expected this was an outcome we'd end up with i think many of us could

envision what the off-ramp was beforehand the off-ramp obviously starts with a cease-fire, so the first thing we need is we need these talks and we need pressure to lead to a cease-fire once there's a cease-fire we can all speculate where we go from there, but that's something we need to have happen immediately. we're all watching these pictures obviously there's overwhelming military firepower we've got to stop the civilian casualties >> i'm going to go to joe. i think he's got a question downstairs >> we talked a bit about it already, me and you, andrew, and becky. but the previous conversations about bitcoin that we had. and i don't know whether it got -- you life doesn't depend on twitter, but when you talked about bitcoin being really purely used for nefarious purposes, a lot of people said, look, there hadn't been a bitcoin for thousands of years

and there's been a lot of nefarity going on with cash. do you still view it that way as something morally wrong because of the bad uses, or have have you come around where you see it might have inherent avalue because it's got a fixed amount and can't be inflated? >> let me the issues and i don't think this is a moral issue. and you're right early on i thought there was a lot of illicit activities for bitcoin. i mean, there are institutions buying bitcoin because they perceive it as a hedge against inflation or other things. i personally don't agree with that, but that's something they want to do my issue always has been on bitcoin is bitcoin needs to be compliant with our bsa and

anti-money laundering rules. before i left i put out regulations that said bitcoin should be treated like cash. if you're sending money and it's over $10,000 you should have to file a currency transaction report, which is no different than what a bank does with cash. those regulationless are sittin with the biden administration. there's no question bitcoin can be used for illicit purposes and there are both good actors and bad actors who are using it today. if the good actors want to use it, it should be regulatory compliant. >> mr. secretary, thanks for being here today it's really good to see you. >> good to see you as well >> we never got the chance to ask you and the administration or at least you wouldn't answer what you think about fed policy. and the big debate in the markets is how quickly should

they be raising rates? i just wonder which side of the debate you come down on, what would you like to see happen >> now it is more fun. this is one of the few things i can freely talk about now. i couldn't talk about the fed. look, i personally think the fed needs to be aggressive now in combating inflation. powell changed it to where they said they'd do it to 2% over time i think at the time pre-covid that was the right thing to do i would have stopped the covid spending we spent $4 trillion that was a lot i think we've got to cut back on this ongoing government funding, but there's no question in my mind if the fed raises interest

rates, and if fed begins to runoff the portfolio, that's going to have a big impact on inflation. whether he raises 25 or 50 basis points, i saw the comment yesterday that he said 25. i think what he does at any single meeting is less important. i think the question is where are we a year from now you know, 18 months from now i think we'll be at 2, 2.5% fed funds and 33.5% ten years. >> where do you think the economy is going to be a year from here now, given the inflationary pressures we've already seen and given what may turn out to be higher oil prices >> the economy continues to be very strong, but we're going to see a divergence in how businesses do. so there's no question businesses that have high wages as a component and low margins are going to have issues ands that have high margins particularly tech companies who are very focused on cyber security are going to continue to see very robust -- very

robust growth, so i think we're going to see two things. oil -- look, for a long time we've had the benefit of cheap oil. i mean 50, $60 oil has been incredibly cheap oil you know, in the context of long periods of time 100 to $110 oil is not super expensive it's something we need to adjust to, and i think the oil markets will normalize >> what does that look like? and i ask because, yes, on a relative basis prices may not seem astronomical, but on a relative basis people feel astronomical >> it does, and kwliem not minimizing there are shorttime investments and that is going to impact people if there's something we need to deal with i think our administration needs to be working with our allies around the world on energy policy i think one of the most important issues for national security is that the u.s. is energy independent i personally not to minimize the environmental issues, but now is

the time to reconsider things like pipelines, things like lng, which is a much cleaner form of energy to focus on carbon recapture, but now is the time when i would be unleashing more oil out of the strategic reserve to stabilize the markets >> you talked about national security and we were talking about china earlier. you spent time with president xi a lot of folks look at what's happening now in ukraine and start to think about china and taiwan and what they may or may not do in the future, whether what's happening with ukraine and the reaction of the rest of the world has any impact on the thinking of china and taiwan what do you think? >> well, taiwan is a complicated issue. it's been an issue that's gone back obviously many, many administrations. i do not see this in any way as a dress rehearsal.

i don't think in the near-term this is an issue china wants to confront in the long-term could be 10, 15, no question china has this one china policy >> you said 25 years or longer you don't think this is a 2025, 2026 >> i absolutely do not >> so yowl think the u.s. has time effectively -- would you meaningfully subsidize the semiconductor industry in the united states? >> i absolutely would. there's a bipartisan bill in congress on this issue i don't believe in government subsidies in general, but semiconductors are key to our national security. whether it's anywhere else in the world we shouldn't be dependent on any foreign country. there's great technology in the u.s. many of the u.s. companies that have done this have lagged, and the reason why they've lagged is

because what happens is we've separated the chip design. the chip design the u.s. is a leader in from the chip manufacturing. the chip manufacturing is what we need to invest in >> when you think about cyber security, and i know you've been investing in a number of cyber security companies currently, but when you think about what may happen should we in the just and west aecht nticipate there' going to be major cyber security warfare coming from russia >> in the government i was responsible for cyber for all of financial services and overseeing the irs so i spent a lot of time on these issues, and i do think cyber is the number one risk for

governments and business around the world. it's such a big issue that strategically i focused on it. general dunford is one of my paer pa partners in the business and almost exus cloofbly what we're focused on right now is national security and cyber security there are an awful lot of very good commercial products available to protect business. >> when you think about businesses and vulnerability, you think the bank is vulnerable where should we be focused and paying more attention? >>well, financial services has been investing in this for a long period of time, so i think the banks are actually very long prepared when i was in the government obviously public-private partnerships with the banks is something we're very focused on. and again, this is an evolving issue. this isn't a one-year issue. again, it's a 30-year issue. many industries outside of banking particularly

infrastructure underinvested in this and are beginning to beef up their investments, but this is something that every single ceo needs to have this as top of mind and be focusing on with their board. >> where we are now with the mid-terms coming up may have big imimplications with what happens with the tax policy in the united states. do you think your former boss is going to run in 2024 >> i think the election is six months he would run, but we'll have to wait and see now is definitely not the time to change tax policy what we don't need -- and we can debate whether our tax policies worked or not. i still think they absolutely worked they created economic growth if it weren't for covid we'd see results from that. now is not the change to be changing economic policies on either the middle class or

businesses >> becky >> yeah, steven, what about you? would you go back and serve in an administration or are you done >> it is an experience of a lifetime it was a great honor to serve the country. i would say i'm basically done, and i don't intend to go back. you know, what happens down the road if someone strong arms me to come maybe i'd consider, but my intention is to stay in the private sector >> steve mnuchin, thank you. becky, back to you >> that was fascinating >> i know nefarity is not a word, but if it isn't fairness what did you come up with? because you can suggest new words and they become new words. and there's been some great

ones refeudiate should have been a word do you think nefarity can do it or do you like yours >> hey, guys >> yeah, andrew. >> the treasury secretary is here did you use the word nefarity? >> i was kidding when it was just used for nefarious purposes, is it ever used and now i realized -- steven, i'm going to nominate that in some way to the webster people. >> i just assumed you were using words correctly so i responded to what you were asking. it never dawned on me you'd make up a word. >> it's going to be on media if i don't say i knew i was joking, it would be on media >> i think you better go and tweet you actually intended to create a new word. >> can i just say it is great

having you back here, and you've always been somebody who's taken all of our questions and given straightforward answers, and it's great to have you being able to speak on everything at this point >> you can finally say it's time to devalue the dollar, steven. >> that i don't agree with i could say it, but i don't agree with that. >> okay, we always ask you that. you always had a good answer >> thank you very much, mr. secretary. we appreciate it when we come back the latest read on jobless claims we've got the futures ahead of the numbers, plus much more on oil, ukraine and the global rks. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc every big idea every game changer every "how'd they do that?" starts here the blank page artists and writers know the tyranny of it well

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tonight russia intensifies assault on key ukrainian cities amid fierce resistance less than 90 minutes now until the opening bell on wall street dom chu joins us >> let's start off with shares of best buy which are gaining some steam in the premarket. you can see here just roughly up about 10% in the premarket trade. well over 300,000 shares of volume right now the consumer electronics retailer reporting mixed quarter results. profits beat estimates but the sales fell in part due to supply

chain issues it also had to reduce store hours in certain areas due to covid related worker shortages some are optimistic after the company gave a multirange longer year outlook and also by the way raises quarterly dividend by 26%. so all those factors leading to about a 9% gain right now. then you've got shares of at&t which are up about fractionally at this point. roughly 40,000 shares of premarket volume right now you can see the telecom giant getting some help with an overweight rating. they think the warnermedia spin-off should unlock shareholder value and point to the analyst date as a potential catalyst for near term up side, and end with a check on some of the most popular tickers on our website. in terms of single stocks maybe no surprise snowflake was one of the top searches given the sharp

decline on the heels of earnings tesla always does, sofi technologies and salesforce.com all within the top 12 as well wti crude number three on the list >> dom, thank you very much. to ukraine now and the latest on the russian invasion and the global response. kayla taushe joins us with more. >> reporter: it's nowbeen one week of war in ukraine and blasts continue in major cities. 1 million refugees have fled the country and more than 2,000 civilians have died. this morning's ukraine's foreign minister says russians might be pointing rocket launching systems towards their own people, another possible false flag operation to accuse ukraine and justify the continued

invasion amid reports of russian troops overtaking a port city in the south. and for the first time installing a military government in a population center, that city's mayor writing on facebook there were no negotiations, but there were armed visitors to the city council, and he's working to secure the city and eliminate the consequences of the invasion meanwhile outside the capital of kyiv, a convoy remains stalled with no fuel for tanks or food for troops the pentagon yesterday said russia still intends to take the capital and install its own government but so far has not secured any major city >> i'm sure that the russians would never predict they would be in a place they are in at this point our focus is to make sure that we do everything possible to provide as much support to the ukrainians so that they can defend themselves.

>> the white house is asking congress for an additional $10 billion in funding to aid ukraine and pausing the planned test launch of a ballistic missile to avoid any actions that could be misconstrued becky? >> when you look at this everything seems indefensible. what is russia doing to try and defend itself in this ridiculous position >> just this morning russia's minister sergei lavrov tried to say there are no troops in these major cities, that it is in fact ukraine is to blame for the situation unfolding in that country. this as another round of talks scheduled to begin this morning between ukraine and russia meanwhile many social media and news platforms are now cut off in russia because of rampant misinformation >> is this time different? russia is able to get away with some of these things in the past

because intelligence wasn't strong enough. this definitely feels like this time there's some pretty irrefutable evidence that you can put up against these claims that they're making. >> and that's one of the reasons why the administration chose to take a diplomatic 180 of sorts in recent weeks to quickly declassify information, to put as much of this information out there in the public so that the u.n. security council, nato and other organizations and world leaders could draw their own conclusions about what exactly is going on and who is to blame for this certainly the president and top cabinet official said it would be anywhere between a few weeks to a month before the consequences could be fully understood by mr. putin and whether he decides it at that point it's time to withdraw. >> coming up markets continuing to swing wildly on fed geopolitical news. we're going to try to make some sense with what's going on an important note as well, you

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welcome back to "squawk box. take a look at the futures right now. we're in the green dow up about 67 points, nasdaq up about 3 points, s&p 500 up about 7. >> check out the ten year yield. yesterday with fed chair jay powell saying he sees it will not be 50 basis points it will be 25. seeing the biggest daily gain in two years. in afternoon trading the ten year yield was up by 18 basis points that is a significant move remember yesterday at this time we were talking how far mortgage rates had come down from friday to monday to yesterday all the way through, swung right back up to those levels again and made up much of that lost ground. sector wise financials were clearly on top gaining more than 2.5% and speaking of the banks, don't

miss an exclusive interview with citi ceo jane fraser in other news tesla ceo elon musk inviting the uaw union to hold a vote. in a series of tweets musk said tesla was thinking about expanding the plant and would do nothing to stop a union vote he suggested, though, tesla has to treat its california employees well since the bay area job market is so tight. anyway musk has criticized the biden administration for a proposal to give american union-made electric vehicles additional tax incentives worth thousands. and he's also still rear end hurt from not being invited to the white house, i think don't you think? >> he's got his nose out of joint, right >> his nose is out of joint.

no, when you get hurt, when you get spanked in the rear. >> i thought you meant a pain in the -- >> no, no, no pain in the neck >> coming up breaking economic data, new jobless -- he definitely was really affected by not being invited to the white house. >> it bothered him >> yeah, it bothered h im (vo) right now, the big switch is happening across the country.

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welcome back to "squawk box. this morning snowflake shares dropping as much as 30% in extended trading the company reported its slowest revenue growth since at least 2019 revenue growing 101% in the fourth quarter down 110%. also take a look at american eagle this morning shares of the company got outfitter falling this morning earnings and revenue matching estimates, but the company warned its earnings would decline because last year stimulus checks boosted spending it expects a rebound in the second half of the year. when we come back on "squawk box" jim cramer's first take and you don't want to miss an interview with the cleveland fed president. and tomorrow on "squawk box"

we're going to be speaking exclusively with the chicago fed president charles evans as the fed is back in focus stay tuned did it ever stop being in focus? no we're back after this.

welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're just seconds away from initial jobless claims data and arevision to fourth quarter productivity the futures at this point have turned in the green. we're now positive after the big gain yesterday rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago rick, i'll give you a second exactly. the numbers, please. >> yeah. the numbers please and here they are. the productivity number hitting the wires. fourth quarter finalist as joe just said 6.6% now replaces the 6.6%, so it stays exactly the same and if we look at unit labor costs, our final look last time was 0.3. that now triples to 0.9. that is the final fourth quarter read up 0.9. and how does that compare? listen, 6.6 productivity is awfully strong

the all-time high 11%. that was in june of last year. and continuing claims come in at 215,000. 215,000 that is now down 17,000, although it 30,000 last week is most likely going to get revised here in a few seconds. and if we look at continuing claims, this is very odd you don't often see exactly the same number twice in a row 1,476,000 equal our continuing claims last week and it was most notable because you'd have to go pack to that crazy year of 1970 to find a lower continuing claims number 232 now becomes 233,000, so now we're down 18,000. and on continuing claims, 1,474,000 replaces 1,776,000 so we see they're all getting

kind of jumbled up there right around the 1970 comp we see a 1.85 tenure, and i like the way becky pointed out that we closed up by 14, 15 basis points yesterday but that isn't even the ah-hah moment so it's a logjam whenever the near changes it all rolls downstream it closed down 29.5 basis points, which means in a very simple way we've added back in more than a quarter point on yesterday's move alone that brings december now to 9855, 56 it's built on a simple formula just so we can continually assess how that's looking. i caution viewers we always make

fed futures into an appropriate science, and it's certainly not a science. the nearby meanings are very accurate on their predictions when we get a couple weeks out like we are for march, but the distant months can change quickly. and my analogy is pick your favorite stocks. pretty much the same for the fed fund percentages joe, back to you >> nice haircut, rick. >> i got a lolly pop with this one. >> you said you're seeing it on the wires, that's the same as higher it's not just me people yell it in my ear >> the voices in your head, dear >> steve liesman joins us now. that is a problem. steve liesman joins us now steve? >> joe, good morning

what can you say but the job market is in a pretty good place, and it's good to be in a good place when you're entering the kind of uncertainty we have now with both domestic and international economic developments the 215 is a good number it's heading down. the productivity number will be a good number. we'll be hard-pressed to hit that again in the fourth quarter. it said there were workers scarcity, increasing compensation for workers, and especially by the way worker flexibility provided for low and moderate wage jobs, which is really interesting you go down the wage spectrum and employers have to offer more to get people to work. all of this is kind of like we'll wait and see what happens with the impact of the war ultimately the thinking there's not a whole lot of dmk trade between ukraine, russia and the united states at the same time there are key commodities going to be mushing

up prices. one question i'd like to hear a senator ask is mr. chairman you're behind the curve here already, you need to do more doesn't the spike in oil prices and other commodities mean you have to go even faster powell's response has been because of the war we're going to go slow and steady and be nimble so i think what this means, joe, is that rick is right the market is predicting 6, i'd say 5.5 on the fed funds. that said, i think the only thing that's certain is they're going to raise in march and probably the two meetings after that after that i think they take a step back and look around and say what's going on in the economy, how does this affect the economy. and they're on the other side of the omicron wave and how does that affect the economy. >> steve, with mohamed we were talking about how -- how two

mutually exclusive things you could actually say happen with the war, and he kind of agreed with me that the war makes a tightening -- makes the fed think, wow, we have to even do this more quickly or inflation is going to actually be worse. but at the same time we need to be very careful in terms of growth about doing too much right now. it's like it just added to the complexity of what they're facing, i think. and it made not acting or acting both more difficult. >> you know, joe, all i can say is -- mohamed is right on that -- is the evolution i spent the weekend trying to understand are we going to have some kind of system because russia said the bank was being taken off-line that hasn't happened and powell noted that we haven't had the kind of fiscal disruption you might have expected this moves onto the second term of thinking what are the

short-term and medium term effects? you're taking russian consumers out of the global economy. i don't know what percentage of them were actually involved in it, but there were million not going to travel now. you're taking 45 million ukrainians basically out of the global economy add it up, that's 200 million. people talk about the oligarchs. the oligarchs are sort of a political sideshow to the broader economic issues, and that is, you know, the russian middle class and the way they interacted with the global economy and taking them off-line there will be repercussions. this initial research i've seen going to hit europe much harder. germany is a big provider to russia and both the import and export, and then it'll knock onto the u.s., but there'll be effects here in the u.s. russia and ukraine provide a lot of titanium to boeing. there's a lot to think about, and you're right there could be a negative demand impulse to all of this along with the inflationary impulse

>> good. steve, thanks. good to see you again. let's talk about the broader markets and investor efforts to try and navigate all this volatility that's been unleashed by russia's invasion of ukraine. joining us right now is jeremy siegel and i want to get your thoughts based on what we just talked about with steve with rick before that. the feds signaling yesterday, jay powell saying it's going to be 25 basis points obviously they're watching to see what happens with ukraine and russia to see whether they should be taking this more slowly how does that play into your thesis which is that the fed has already been behind and inflation is going to be stronger than people anticipate and require the fed to do even more >> yeah, and i actually think it would be a big policy mistake to slow down because of ukraine i mean we had this situation in the '70s with oil prices going

up and arthur burns was chairman of the fed, and he decided also, well, the economy is contracting, let's put more money into the system. and that proved to be a huge policy error unfortunately, you've got to take the medicine. and i'm very disappointed. i think the fed should go 50 basis points the first time in march. he did open the possibility there would be more. i actually think the 5 1/2 to 6% steve mentioned the hikes they're going to have, they're going to have to do much more than that. and, you know, i'm actually d disappointed that chairman powell did not look at the history saying that this is not a time for us to slow down and i think you will come to that realization i was also disappointed by the

way that he said that we really didn't formulate a plan for draining off the balance sheet, and that disappointed me, too. because that is also very important. i spent an hour actually interviewing chairman -- fed president james bullard from st. louis last friday, and he said wave got to be at least at 1% in july and implied we've got to be probably at 2% or more by the end of the year although i'm willing to look at what that situation actually is. he's on the committee. he's a hawk. he could dissent i don't think he will the first time he said we're going to have to do 50 basis points after that, and i think he's perfectly right. >> jay powell is no arthur burns. i mean, he has a much better grasp of the markets and much

better understanding i have to say listening to him yesterday, i like listening to him. i feel like he's in command and control to get these things and also pretty smart about how he says things politically. may not be ready to shake the markets and say we're going to do this pretty steadfast with all these rate hikes coming through. i didn't get the sense listening to him they're going to go that much slower. to me kind of reading through and listening to hours of that testimony yesterday it sounded to me like, yeah, he knows this is an issue. he knows they need to be moving on this, and he's not going to say anything to shake the markets up right now, but that wasgist my interpretation how about yours? >> we saw when the two-year rate when he opened up the fact we're going to have to go faster i think the market said that but we also have to admit, becky, that the fed has been terribly wrong over the last year i mean all this temporary inflation, look at that

projections for inflation that they did last year so way below what actually happened all the way to december you know, and, listen, jay powell is a very, very good man. he's a good communicator, but the fed has been very wrong. and they're going to have to catch up and they're going to have to -- and really have to admit we've got to bite the boullet here we've got to defend the dollar here we've got to defend the dollar >> if they do 25 basis points in march i think may is the next meeting and then june, and kind of move through 25 basis points you could be talking about a full 1 47b basis points by the time you get to july >> yeah. i think you need at least one meeting on that. but think about 100 basis points on inflation that is 5%. by the way, when we get to cpi

it could hit 8% on the year over year basis history tells you yo, no, that really isn't tight we had gone up to 2% with a balance sheet half the size with no inflation and now we're so scared to go above 1% with 8% inflation, and a balance sheet that is twice as large. you've got to be more aggressive >> let's talk about the market implications of this, whatever the fed does if you're talking about this higher inflation. we've seen stock prices coming down pretty significantly. does any of this look like a bargain to you and if not what would it take to make things look like, okay, this is a time i would buy >> i think long-term you're

right. and we're selling under 20 times earnings for the s&p right now and even a rising interest rate environment that's very cheap. they take out the tech sector you're selling at 17, 18 times earnings given the interest rate this is a good long-term buy market. however, with the fed as i believe we're going to have to be more aggressive, it's going to be a rocky 2022 market. right now it's -- i think yesterday we saw the market go up far beyond he's not going to do 50 basis points right away. we're not going to have to take our medicine right away, we're going to have to take it a little later has always been a long-term value. sure, could get to 40, 45, get a downward spike but long-term investors should

certainly stay very much invested i still believe the pivot will be towards the value stocks because a more aggressive fed, which i think they will have to be will raise those interest rates, discount the long-term cash flows more and hurt those long duration stocks >> professor siegel, i think that's a pretty important distinction. there's so many concerns about inflation, what's happening in ukraine and other issues markets sold off because of all those reasons. if you're saying prices might get cheaper from here that's one thing. but if you're in here for the long haul that's probably worth to buy and worth emphasizing >> absolutely. you're nowhere near the type of craziness we were two or three months ago and nowhere near compared to 2000

today those are like minus 1%. the alternatives are just so low that stocks are definitely the place to be for long-term investors and for people wanting to protect against inflation there are claims on real assets, and that's an advantage. >> yeah. in an inflationary environment cash is trash. great to see you >> thank you very much, becky. >> so he thinks the fed is going to continue doing this with small increasements, which i'm told is incremental increases. twitter is good for something. some guy's wife came up with increasement, and why is that not a word there's an incremental increase. it's an increasement up next jim cramer joins us live rkth the first take on the maets. yesterday's huge jump in treasury yields and much more.

"squawk box" will be right back.

want to get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. jim, we can talk snocks -- stocks >> i love the interview with mnuchin. i love that. >> i want to start just on ukraine and what you think the off-ramp is.

it is what we talked to mnuchin about, but interestingly i saw you were tweeting about president xi and how much you think president xi will ultimately play a role in this and that's where mnuchin was going. >> it's a good opportunity for xi because he's trying to subtly distancethis they may just think, you know, we don't have to anything. let it play out boy, i don't know how does putin win now >> that's the question how does he win or -- if he wins or loses, the question is what the off ramp, the exit ramp look like if there is one >>well, i mean, it feels like

it's a slow motion there was an amazing book how we got involved with vietnam and couldn't extra kate. >> this goes on for years, jim >> well, i think that, you know, these guys run an army of occupation they didn't know what they were getting into we didn't know what we were getting into in vietnam. we didn't know what we were getting into in iraq war they didn't know what they were getting in afghanistan or kyiv i think that ukraine is a quagmire for them already. and i don't see how they get through it other than putin falling. >> you want to talk powell -- >> speaking of the johnson moment johnson was kind of a great guy in a lot of ways with vietnam. >> powell or snowflake >> snowflake i'm going to make a passionate defense. look at the operating cash flow.

look at frank's record by the way, look, professor segal said it's coming down very big. 25 times sales is very high but it was 100 times sales i can make a case that snowflake should be bought it's a minority view but i thought franc was last night he was on "mad money." when he's underconfident, we'll tell you. >> we'll see you in a couple of minutes, jim cramer. you have a couple of big interviews coming up. >> oh, yeah. faber has got jane fraser. that's going to be amazing >> we have to find what is happening at citi. david will tell us. >> remind the audience, of course, about jim's investing club find out more at cnbc.com/join the club or point your phone at the screen it's easier to do it that way. squawk coming back

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'. it's a little over half hour until the opening bell on wall street the futures right now, as you can see, now at the 120 on the dow. liz young is head of investment strategy at sofi be honest with me.

you always are i don't like that term. >> it implies usually you're lying. were you surprised at how resilient the market has been and what has been a horrific thing we're seeing over in ukraine? >> i'm surprised in the sense that, yes, there's a big geopolitical crisis going on and the market has been resilient. what we've seen so far is that it hasn't been necessarily contagious to the u.s. economy and u.s. markets you have to remember you can't take these things and ignore what happened with jerome powell yesterday. there was a huge uncertainty taken off the table. we were questioning what the fed would do in march, how quickly they would do it he basically confirmed for us what they're going to do, how they'll start it, and the chance they'll go after it bigger in may or june if they need to. i think taking some of of the uncertainties off the table is a positive remember, we've had a pretty big flush so far this year so another uncertainty or

another risk that was hanging out there was evaluations. looking where we were on january 3rd. evaluations were so high they posed a risk to the market now that risk has come back down off the tableble we're closer to the five-year average at least in the s&p. >> and the averages don't really show you the underlying pull back we've seen in a lot of high fliers, too. it's a lot more than 10 or 15% it's been sort of rotating and there's been a lot of damage done there or you can view it as damage or maybe consolidation. >> that's right. well, the other thing that i keep saying, i've said it a few times on twitter and other places, that just because the markets are up it doesn't mean we're out of the woods it doesn't mean everybody is suddenly bullish we saw bears outnumbering bulls for the first time since 2020 last week. and then a look at where the vix still is with the vix close 30, it tells me the market can't decide which direction it's supposed to go over the next month.

i think because we have this uncertainty about the hike off the table, we're going to get 25 on march 16th, that's helps a little bit we have to wait and see what happens in ukraine and what happens with oil prices. i think oil prices pose the biggest risk to this market right now. >> recent months when we get a hot inflation number, that's been -- for the market today now we've got oil after the -- it's not just the underlying economy here or the uncertainty of it invasion of ukraine. we're seeing it manifest in 110, $115 oil why hasn't that been more disconcerting? >> well, it's a disconcerting to me because i think we haven't quite hit levels yet of history. if you look at what happened in 2012, for example, we hit about $125 barrel.

it was due to iran sanctions it was absent a recession in the u.s. we haven't gotten to $125 a barrel yet if we get somewhere between the $120 and $130 barrel point, i think we need it to relax after that when you look how oil spiked with the recession in 2008, we got up to $146 a barrel. we haven't quite hit the mental thresholds yet i think that's why the market is okay with this we can explain it away for the time being we've got this chance that demand does soften throughout the year as economic growth slows down, doesn't contract, but slows down then you've got demand softening hopefully some of these tensions relax or maybe there's more supply that comes on the market. i think there's a chance that we can come back down from these levels in oil. but inflation, to your point, remains an issue for the next few months. >> just fall off a cliff. >> veer. >> up significantly from 2 or 3% to down 2 or 3% in a moment.

>> liz young, we appreciate a lot of, you know, the fed, oil, ukraine. it's all part of evaluations let's get a final check on markets. we're looking at oil that doesn't hurt the performance in the dow now up 185 points. big gains yesterday when it was all said and done. make sure you join us tomorrow. >> rumors of a deal with iran that could allow iran to export more oil. >> there grow. >> watching the market. >> there you go. >> it's involving iranians make sure you join us tomorrow sq"squawk on the street" is next good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber has an exclusive with jane fraser later on this hour premarket trying to hold yesterday's rally as fed chair powell heads to the na