years. >> they're bailing us out here >> 11 cents in a day for unleaded regular gasoline. >> let me understand that chart. does that .233 means it's 23 basis points difference between the two ten year >> yes >> i'm going to take yield curve for $30. all right, dom, thank you. and thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> hello, and welcome to "closing bell. happy friday i'm sara eisen here at the new york stock exchange. major averages under pressure as we head to the final hour of trading, as developments in ukraine inject more uncertainty in the market. the nasdaq is leading the decline, down more than 2% >> let's look at what's driving the action the selling began thursday night when reports emerged about fighting near a nuclear power plant in ukraine the largest in europe. rush has since reportedly seized control of that facility that's overshadowing today's strongest than expected jobs

report and oil is back on the upswing wti crude prices are up more than 25% just this week. 59 minutes to go in the session. >> coming up on today's show, it has been a wild week in the bond market yields are pulling back sharply as investors look again for safety we'll bake down the moves with jeff sherman >> plus, kroger has been on a tear on the back of earnings we'll ask ceo rodney mcmullen how inflation factors into the outlook for the rest of the year, and let's focus in on the big stories we're watching eamon javers with the latest on russia and ukraine mike tracking all of the market action, and pippa stevens with more on the nuclear facility in ukraine and the impact on certain parts of the market. let's begin with eamon in washington what can you tell us >> well, sara, amid the reports the administration is considering cutting off access to russian oil supplies, several biden administration officials have expressed caution over the past hour, saying such a move

could roil international energy markets if not handled carefully. among the officials responding is secretary of state antony blinken. >> there's no strategic interest in reducing the global supply of energy the immediate effect would be to raise prices at the pump for americans. and also to pad russian profits with rising prices >> at the white house, press secretary jen psaki also responded to the call senator lindsey graham made on twitter last night for someone to kill vladimir putin in russia that claim so starkly expressed astonished officials in washington and the white house was eager to play it down. >> no, we are not advocating for killing the leader of a foreign country or regime change that is not the policy of the united states. >> now, the white house was also at pains today to underscore the comments from the head of nato earlier that there is just not going to be a direct confrontation between the united states and russia.

psaki said the president is not going to put u.s. military on the front lines of a battle to fight against russian troops sara >> eamon javers, thank you we'll turn to the market, as stocks sit firmly in negative territory. dow on pace for its fourth straight week of losses, and nasdaq again getting hit the hardest. mike, what are you focused on? >> another day of very heavy apprehensive trading it has been very sticky, the s&p 500, around this 4300 mark last night, overnight, index futures rushed just below 4300 4280 or so that was also tuesday's intraday low. don't know if that's of signi significance, but it's interesting we're very sensitive to incremental headlines about ukraine, but in this range, that range being defined as just under 4200 and up to i think you would be generous and say right around there, 4500s, up to 4600. we're oslatding in here. it's significant the market is trying to get a little bit of traction at a time when there's really been no friendly news

aside from the jobs report there's just no kind of clear green signal for risk taking when you have the volatility index where it is, credit spreads not cooperating. take a look at this measure of how defensive we have gotten over the last several months this is the momentum etf right here you see just rolled over there yes, it's a lot of tech in there, but also overweighted in financials it has not paid to play this big broad advance in the leadership groups, and of course, the low volatility stocks distinguishing themselves right here. the equal waited s&p 500 an one-year base up 14%, not so bad, so the mega cap and momentum stocks have been the epicenter of a lot of this weakness take a look at the u.s. dollar index. we have a lot of these dynamics here that are going up in a dramatic way crude oil and the dollar, for what equity investors would say is the wrong reason, which is a bid for safety or supply disruption that's looking a little heady. if you go back and eliminate the months around the covid crash in march of 2020, this is over a

two-year, actually maybe even a four-year high in the u.s. dollar index clearly, that represents naturally a tightening of financial conditions >> as i mentioned earlier today on twitter, both the dollar rising and commodities rising like this, those are precursors to recession >> they have been, yes, in the past at least it raises the risk level without a doubt. >> yeah, makes it a little easier for the fed in that day don't have to do as much work, but harder if inflation stays high >> exactly it. >> we'll turn now back to the crisis in ukraine. there were tense moments thursday night after fighting broke out near europe's largest nuclear power plant. we saw a big reaction in the markets. futures plunged on the news. pippa stevens with the impact on nuclear related stocks and commodities. >> uranium stocks are dropping after last night's attacks prompts worries about the future of nuclear power two etfs that track the space, both down sharply at this hour the biggest losers include

chemical corporation, next gen energy, and denison mines. investors z spoke to said this was not a nuclear disaster and doesn't actually change the long term viability of nuclear power. arthur hyde from capital management which invests in the space saying now perhaps more than ever, nuclear is attractive since it provides energy security in addition to being a base load power source, you can have several years of fuel on site. natural gas, by comparison, is a just in time fuel source russia also plays a part here. they mine around 6% of yourane mm and they control around 35% of the enrichment market according to uxc as we rethink energy policies this could be a boost for western uranium companies. back to you. >> pretty interesting. thank you, pippa stevens >> when we come back, it has been a rocky week for the broader market, but kroger has been an exception. been on an absolute tear we'll speak to ceo rodney mcmullen about the growth

outlook. >> and later, the ceo of sweetgreen on today's big jump following their first earnings report since going public. the dow is down about 350 points low of the day was down 540. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. (vo) small businesses are joining the big switch. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ultimate business plan for the lowest price ever. plus choose from the latest 5g smartphones. get more 5g bars in more places- switch to t-mobile for business today.

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or, ask how to get up to a $650 prepaid card. as a small business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving with comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. so boost your bottom line by switching today. get the new samsung galaxy s22 series on comcast business mobile and for a limited time save up to $750 on a new samsung device with eligible trade-in. we have about 50 minutes to go 1% decline on the dow, down 363. s&p 500 down about 1.3%. and the nasdaq is down even more than that. what's working today well, energy that's been pretty much the story all week it's actually having a big move higher today up 2.5%. you noticed energy stacks have

lagged oil prices. today it's the everse. >> today it's the reverse. it's a huge move in one week no doubt about it. but it's been interesting that crude has been kind of trying to make new highs, but even with all of the good news, i'm on alert for the idea it's very sensitive to any easing up of those supply concerns at this point. >> right what else is working utilities, real estate, health care, staples, all of the defensive plays. and kroger, the stock of the week, surging to all-time highs following a big earnings beat. issuing strong guidance yesterday. the grocer also announcing today that it's expanding its fulfillment network to three new cities the stock is up more than 26% this week alone. joining us now for an exclusive interview, kroger chairman and ceo, rodney mcmullen i understand you're at a fulfillment center which is why it looks like you're a reporter holding that microphone. thank you for joining us >> hi, sara.

yes, i'm at our groveland society. we have about 700 associates here a great week, exciting to be here thanks for inviting us >> it has been a great week for your stock its earnings, its investor day what have the critics gotten wrong, because it hasn't been the most beloved stock over the last few years and your competitors like amazon and walmart were always thought to be in better shape to tackle the digital world. >> well, i love your question, but i don't think so much about what they got wrong. it's what our teams have been doing right. we're so focused on the customer and so focused on what's going to be right for the customer in five years and that's including our seamless system where people can going into a store shop, they can shop online, they can do pickup, they can do delivery, and all of those things together is connecting with the customer, and that traffic is driving our alternative profit business, which has higher margins than a traditional supermarket business and it also gives us the

capacity to make sure that customers, we minimize the amount of inflation we have to pass through, too. it's really our whole team of 450,000 people working together. >> i feel like one of the other critical takes on your stock and your business, rodney, was that when the pandemic faded, people would stop eating at home and cooking at home and they would be going out, and your earnings this week show that that's not exactly happening like that. what are you seeing and what are you predicting on that front >> yeah, what we're seeing is people have learned how to cook. and what we're finding is they enjoy cooking. and both of those things are obviously tailwinds for us so the one thing they ask us to do is how do you keep it inspiring? how do you help it make it creative and come up with new ideas? but people love cooking. they love showing off to their friends. some of their new skills, and obviously, all those things are helpful for our business and our

team is continuing to deliver against that >> one of the other questions i did have coming out of the earnings call yesterday, you talked about the shifting economics of americans stimulus has worn off and people are going more to private label to save money. using coupons more isn't that ultimately a challenge for your business, rodney, when it comes to margins and pricing power in this inflationary environment and also the competition with walmart there on lower prices. >> yeah, we're going to do everything we can to make sure the customer's budget goes as far as they can, and if you look at our loyalty program, it was just named one of the top loyalty programs in the country, when you look at fuel rewards, discounts, and all of those things together. and when you look at our brands, our margins on our brands is higher than national brand we're going to serve the customer, we're going to have whatever products the customer wants, so we look at what are the things that we can help the

customer we obviously, customers tell the number one place how they decide where to shop is how good are they at fresh. we start out doing an incredible job against our national competitors on how the customer feels we do on fresh, and we're not satisfied where with where we are so all of those things just creates a total good value for the customer >> rodney, the way that you're expanding into these new markets, virtual only, is that going to be the mode from here on out, or is there going to be a place for physical store expansion? how does that play out in the next few years >> yeah, mike, i love the question it's very early. and you have to walk before you run. when you look at like here in florida, we have a value proposition for the customer with incredible high quality products we deliver it to your door and make shopping easy so we want to make sure that

dwwe do a great job on the customers we're starting to shop with us and we'll let one step at a time and our net promoter scores in florida is really strong, and i'm so proud of our whole florida team on how they're connecting with customers and connecting with customers in a way that is special. so, you know, it's exciting to see, and that's really the key to allow us to further grow, is how do we get started and get started strong >> rodney, food inflation, huge story. we're all feeling it and now we are seeing prices of wheat and corn surge to new heights. so how much is this war in ukraine exacerbating the food inflation story? >> well, obviously, we're worried about people's budget just like everyone else is and we're going to do everything we can to make sure the impact is as small as it can. we work with our suppliers trying to identify costs we can take out together to make sure

that we're helping in every way we can our loyalty program, our fuel rewards, all of those are things we're trying to do to help the customers' budget go as far as it can, but it's a balancing act. and we're justtrying to manage it just like everyone else is as well >> rodney, what's your message to investors on your investor day about things like your capital allocation strategy, what they can expect for sort of multi-year growth goals, things like that? >> yeah, our objective from a total shareholder return is 8 to 11% per year and that's driven by sales growth and profit growth and returning to cash to our shareholders and what we have said is our first priority is to invest in the business to grow it, and when you look at growing it, it's things that will drive sales increases and take process change to take cost out. then you look, that would be the first priority if you look at the facility that

we're in, further developing our seamless system to where we can satisfy a customer whether they want pickup, delivery, or shop in store and then we have increased our dividend for 15 years in a row at a double digit compounded rate, and cash that's left over we buy stock back. so we have a very disciplined process where we're focused on investing capital in things that grow our business and then returning money to our shareholders >> and finally, rodney, just one more big picture question from me, food inflation, labor inflation, which you're dealing with you're seeing it in energy prices what's your forecast on how long all of this is with us at these high levels? >> yeah, it's a great question if you look at our internal assumption, the first half will be higher inflation. we do expect the second half of the year to be a little more moderate inflation, is the best estimate we have now and that's looking at internal stuff.

looking at projected costs going forward, and obviously looking at government data, too. but the best -- our best guess is that's what we see at the moment >> are you seeing anything r resembling recessionary type behavior from the consumer i know you mentioned coupons and the economics. is that something on the horizon? because supermarket stocks do do well, unfortunately, during times of stress. >> what our customers are telling us is food would be the last thing they would cut back on and as we talked about and you just mentioned, we are starting to see customers engage in coupons a little more. starting to use our brands a little more. but we wouldn't see anything so far that would be a huge signal to recessionary environment. it's more, i would call it more of a cautious environment where people are making sure what they're spending we are starting to see people come back into the workforce a little more. if you look at the number of openings, we are making progress

on reducing the number of openings we have >> we saw that in the jobs data today. rodney, thank you for joining us great color from the fulfillment center in florida. >> thanks so much. >> ceo and chairman of kroghen, which is up another 6% today >> definitely on the move. we have about 40 minutes left before the bell. the dow is down more than 1% s&p 500 right around that 4300 mark the nasdaq really the pain point today, down 2% the mega cap tech stocks as well as the russell 2000 are a drag >> up next, historian neal ferguson shares his view on the war in europe and what he thinks vladimir putin's end game is in ukraine. check out some of today's top searched tickers on cnbc.com and another day of macro focus the ten-year yield getting the most focus followed by tesla, the s&p 500, the dow, and crude oil. place for ambition. a forge of progress. a unicorn in training.

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stocks moving lower after

russia attacked and seized a nuclear power plant in ukraine european officials telling cnbc that eu foreign affairs ministers are considering new energy sanctions against russia following that attack. for more on the crisis, let's bring in niall ferguson from stanford university. niall, great to speak with you i wonder how you size up the likely next phase here of this conflict we have sanctions which the official ones plus those of companies, probably more dramatic than we might have expected in a short period of time, yet it has not resulted in anything like a de-escalation. so what is your best guess on what comes from here >> well, it was relatively easy for me to anticipate that putin would invade ukraine i predicted that back on january 2nd when i wrote war is coming it's much harder to say what comes next and so i have lower confidence in what i'm about to say everything hinges on how swiftly

the war develops i think we may be in danger of exaggerating russian difficulties and underestimated the scenario in which brutally destroying the cities in his path and killing civilians, putin ultimately over a period of several weeks is able to defeat ukraine's armed forces. though i think he'll have an insurgency on his hands. so the first thing to watch is really how fast the russians are able to move to take control, particularly of kyiv i think that will determine a great many things. but they're in a race against the impact of the sanctions, which as you rightly say, are much tougher than putin can have imagined and are crippling russia's economy, and i believe they will be ratcheted up further as the civilian casualties mount and western outrage mounts, the pressure to impose limits, embargoes even on russian energy exports is going to grow.

there's a race between russia's war efforts and our effort to hurt the russian economy through sanctions. the third thing to watch is putin's domestic position. he wouldn't be the first russian leader to fall victim to a palace coup for failing with a military endeavor. so we have to watch closely to see if anybody in his inner circle has the guts to say it's time off finally, this is something that isn't getting quite enough attention in my view, there's a chance if there's enough of a stalemate on the battlefield, the chinese will say, look, we're here to make a peace deal. we're going to broker the cease-fire and the peace, and i could see an off ramp there for putin. i could also see that the chinese have some leverage over him because after all, they're backstopping this whole endeavor they gave him a green light and probably are offering at least some relief from the sanctions those are the things that investors have to watch. and each one of them in a sense is connected to the other, in a way that is much, much more complex to call than the original call he was going to

invade, because he wasn't deterred by sanctions. the question is can the war effort be derailed by sanctions. >> that's is exactly what i was going to ask next, which is if you believe he's willing to destroy cities and essentially undergo an insurrection there to try to hold the country, would, for example, an outright ban on russian oil be enough to persuade him otherwise it seems as if you don't think he's necessarily going to be deterred by such a thing >> no, because although it would certainly impose further pain on the russian economy, it wouldn't cause the russian army to run out of fuel or for that matter ammunition they do have superiority on the battlefield, and in particular, they have air superiority. not total, but such that they can inflict significant damage from the air in ukrainian cities so i think we're going there in fact, the market is already doing it, because there are no

buyers or at least there are few buyers for russian oil even before an embargo at some point, the price is going to act like the embargo is already in place i think the politics and economics together push towards restrictions on russian oil and maybe also gas exports but does that end the war? does that stop him from taking kyiv i don't think that's clear the history on this is very clear, in fact you can impose sanctions very stringent sanctions on an aggressor. we did that to germany, for example, in 1914 but even a total blockade that cut germany off from imports overseas didn't bring the war to an end world war i lasted for four and a quarter years and it was really only decided on the battledfield i think it would be wrong to expect sanctions to stop the fighting the thing that will stop the fighting is if the ukrainians are able to inflict sufficient casualties on russia to prevent the fall of kyiv i'm not sure that they have the

necessary resources to do that, as putin deploys his superior air power and artillery power and simply demolishes the cities he's done this before. think grosni and chechnya, aleppo and syria the resistance is much more tenacious than he anticipated. >> of course, what's hanging over all of this is the arsenal of nuclear weapons he has, including tactical nuclear weapons. do you see -- you have studied history. you have studied putin you have studied the region. do you see a potential for putin resorting to that? >> i think it's more likely that he resorts to the threat again, because he's discovered something very important and that is that we are rather nervous of the threat of the use of even tactical nuclear weapons, and instead of replying as we should have replied by saying, if you use a tactical weapon, we have -- we will certainly retaliate, what we did was to back off. because that threat was enough

to take the idea of a no-fly zone off the table, to take the idea of lending the ukrainians fighting jet off the table, so putin's discovered on this issue as on a number of others, the west is weaker than it was in the cold war and i anticipate that if things continue to go slowly on the battlefield, he will play this card again he was able to scare the markets into a further sell-off today just by causing a fire at a ukrainian nuclear power station. so this is a great power he wields and i think he'll wield it again as long as he's using that threat, which i do think is a bluff, but as long as he's using that threat and we're intimidated by it, then he is not done >> niall ferguson, investors pay attention to what you say. thank you for joining us time for a cnbc news update with kristina partsinevelos >> hello here is what is happening at this hour. white house press secretary jen psaki slamming the russian attacks on a huge nuclear plant

in ukraine she calls it the height of irresponsibility she says that even before the attack, government officials were looking into whether russia has committed war crimes in ukraine. she says no conclusions have yet been reached >> russian president putin has signed a bill into law making it illegal to publish reports about the military that are considered to be fake that will include going against the kremlin's position that the war in ukraine is nothing more than a special military operation. law breakers face up to 15 years in prison. >> and a fund-raising effort for ukrainian refugees is off to a fast start ukrainian born actress mila kunis and her husband have raised $3.7 million in less than 24 hours they say they'll match $3 million in donations they hope to raise a total of $30 million for humanitarian aid in eastern europe and short term housing through airbnb back over to you, mike >> thank you very much up next, it's a stock story of the day shares of sweetgreen getting a

huge boost after the company's first earnings report since its ipo, up about 23% today. we'll talk to the ceo in a first on cnbc interview next (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you.

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check out shares of restaurant chain sweetgreen soaring today, up almost 24%

after reporting its first quarterly result since it went public back in november. the company beating on revenues, gave a strong outlook for sales in 2022, and joining us now for a first on cnbc interview is sweetgreen ceo and cofounder jonathan neman welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> so you come out of the gate here with a bang in terms of comp store sales which were up more than 30%, despite some of the challenges we saw this quarter with omicron and inflation. what is driving the gains for you right now? >> first of all, i want to take a moment, thank you for having me i want to thank our team members. the past two years with the covid pandemic have brought unprecedented challenges to the whole restaurant industry. the results you saw in the fourth quarter are a real testament to the team. beyond that, i think a lot of the work we have done strategically around positioning the brand around recovery, things around the digital innovation we have done and meeting customers wherever they are, both on our pick-up

channel, our utpost channel an native delivery, as well as i think speaks to on trend nature of what we're doing at sweetgreen in really making healthy food more accessible and trying to build the mcdonald's of our generation. so a lot of macro forces at play here to position us for a really nice acceleration coming out of the pandemic >> one of those forces that's impacting you and everyone else is inflation rising costs from food to labor. it looks like you have got some pricing power. how much of that, and how much do you anticipate you might have to raise prices to deal with this kind of environment >> you know, this is something the whole industry, really the whole world, has been pacing from an nflation perspective for us, it comes in two parts mainly one, labor inflation for us, it's about being competitive from a wage perspective, so we have definitely been increasing wages and making sure we're taking care of our team members and creating a compelling value proposition for them to work at sweetgreen in addition, we're also seeing

some inflation from the food cost perspective commodity perspective. luckily, i think sweetgreen is insulated from some of this because we do not serve beef in our plant-forward menu we have some insulation, but we're not totally immune, especially as it relates to fuel cost and freight and shipping. so again, the local and seasonal and regional nature of our food, some protection, but not totally. having said all that, the brand does have some pricing power but we're really conscious and trying to be very judicious about how we use it. sweetgreen, we want it to be accessible and something you can eat often and make part of your lifestyle. so while we know we have some pricing power and we have seen that, we're trying to be very careful in how we use it to make sure that we maintain the accessibility of sweetgreen over time >> jonathan, you have had obviously very strong same-store sales, projecting very strong same-store sales i wonder as you look at the model for the business, what is

the capacity of your individual stores some of your more mature stores, are they close to it it seems as if there's only so much you can have in terms of through put in that model. >> you know, great question. one of the things that i think differentiates sweetgreen is how we build out our fleet from day one. really anticipating the digital nature of our business, we built our stores to be omni channel in nature what that means is we understand what the capacity and channel mix of each store could be and have built in many cases, all in cases, a secondary make line, to support that digital business. that means we're really well prepared, just well positioned as that digital revenue grows. and so all to say a lot of capacity beyond that, the company is also focused on increasing sales throughout different parts for us, we see a huge opportunity around dinner and

heartier foods throughout the year, in the coming years, you'll see us continue to lean and test part of your food options similar to what you have seen with our plates and our hot honey chicken plate which has been a huge hit. huge opportunity in different parts, but the stores have been built in a way to facilitate that digital revenue and gives us a lot of capacity to continue to grow. >> some of the analysts are excited about your prospects at dinner time which they think you're underrepresented in what a time to go public, november of last year. the stock was almost double at that time. it's been cut in half. market is not in the mood for new ipos with a lot of growth and especially ones that aren't profitable what are you telling your investors on path to profitability and helping them understand your story a little more >> yeah, absolutely. so first, sweetgreen has always been a company that's thought super long term about what we're building we're trying to build a food brand of our generation. it's not going to happen in a quarter or a year.

so we have always positioned ourselves that way sweetgreen spent a lot of capital, a lot of time being private, really building out our infrastructure, our team, and getting the brand and supply chain right before we went public we see a clear path to profitability, and are very focused on leveraging our costs continue on that path to profitability. we made some really good progress on that and we'll continue to. it's a huge focus for us having said all that, sweetgreen is positioning ourselves for the long term. we're looking to build 1,000 stores by the end of the decade. and really challenging mcdonald's over the next generation of being the fast food brand of our generation so while we're making some huge moves over the next few quarters, it's all positioned for a much longer term view of what we're trying to build >> jonathan, appreciate the update thank you. >> thank you >> all right, less than 20 minutes to go before the bell. here is where we stand

the dow is down about 338. hovering a bit above its lows for the day. the s&p 500 about nine points above that 4300 level. nasdaq still down 2% straight ahead, the crypto community keeping its doors open to russia amid its war with ukraine. why the exchanges won't commit to an all-out ban. that's next.

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biscuits!! get fast free 1-3 day shipping when they just can't wait. chewy. crypto exchanges stopping short of issuing an all out ban on russian users amid the escalating conflict with ukraine. kate rooney with more details. distinguishing themselves yet again from traditional finance >> they really do stand out here crypto ceos are pushing back on

calls to take it a step further and issue a complete ban of russian users. you have coinbase, binance, cracken, and ftx among the exchanges still operating in russia despite the ukrainian vice prime minister asking all exchanges to block users in russia and its ally, belarus as kraken's ceo told me yesterday, exchanges right now where within the legal limits and complying with current sanctions. unless sanctions expand to a country wide ban, something like we have seen in north korea and iran, kraken's russian accounts will stay open it's similar to what some of their competitors are saying coinbase's ceo tweeting overnight, you had binance tell cnbc that a ban would fly in the face of why crypto exists in the first place. and guys, this highlights a conflict for the industry. they're trying to keep a lot of the crypto customers happy many of them got into the industry for the idea this is apolitical sovereign money, but the companies also have to work

closely with regulators. back to you. >> yeah, that has been the tension all along, kate. thank you very much. >> up next, how the chip sector is being impacted by the conflict between russia and ukraine. that story when we take you inside the market zone

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wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq welcome back ten minutes to the close here's a look at what's coming up in the second hour of "closing bell. jeff sherman will help us break down the wild week in the bond market we'll tell you about russia's move to ban facebook, market watching david rosenberg will tell us how today's strong jobs report factors into his outlook and discuss the current slate of sanctions against russia with

doug reddicker from the brookings institution. first, less than ten minutes to go in the trading day. we'll go into the "closing bell" market zone. joining us is ally chief markets and money strategist lindsey bell we'll kick it off with the broader market stocks are selling off again here into the close. looking at another down week for the market the down is 281 points we're off the lows, but all of the swings in uncertainty in the market over russia and ukraine, some of the commodity prices like aluminum and copper and wheat and corn continue to surge. what's spooking investors based on the clients you're talking to >> yeah, i mean, it's an extremely uncertain environment. it's been incredibly difficult to figure out how to invest in this type of environment as we talked about in the past, i have been leaning more defensive since the beginning of the year because there's been a significant amount of uncertainty. this conflict in eastern europe is dominating the minds of

investors at this point in time. it seems like a sell now think later type of atmosphere at least this week things change every day. you look at the market, it's moved up or down in a 1% range more than 50% of days so far this year. so it can be a very nerve-racking environment to invest in. then you look at oil prices. you have to wonder how that's going to impact growth going forward. the fed, they seem to be taking a more cautious tone but how long will that last if we get past this there's just so many uncert uncertainties. we don't know where inflation is going. it all comes down to being in a wait and seekind of mode, really positioning your portfolio to have some defensive expoeshsure to get you through s knowing we will get through it eventually >> to that point, obviously being defensive has been the right call two months ago yesterday was the peak in the market it really has been pretty much sellers in control of all of the cyclical and riskier groups.

however, what would you be looking for in terms of not so much an all clear but a signal that in fact it was no longer a time to be getting incrementally defensive. you have investor sentiment looking depressed. these things pass, external events tend not to be what kills bull markets so what would you be looking for as a clue? >> yeah, you know, i think there's oo lot of different things we can look at, but i think the fact of the matter is it's going to be a rocky road for the next several months. even if we get past this conflict between russia and ukraine, obviously, that's the biggest weight that needs to be lifted first and foremost. but then we turn to the fed. and the fed is really going to be driven by what inflation is doing. and what we know now is that inflation is likely to remain higher and stick around for longer than what we had initially anticipated. so we're going to want to see a softening inflation or a moderating inflation so that we get a better understanding what the fed is going to do, the fed

have become more cautious. we heard that this week. they're going to be slower with their rate hikes, but we need to -- we really need to assess where they're going in the future, and don't torgforget, we have midterms later this year, too. that leads to an underperforming market into that >> on that topic, secretary janet yellen on the wires right now. she's speaking at a stanford institute of economics event sounds like she's taking questions. there's arheadline that says i believe the fed can bring down inflation without recession. which she has credibility. that's the goal, and to hear her say it may be reassuring, although the biden administration has to bank on that, too. >> hopefully we're talking about statistical effects helping out in that project of reducing inflation. bank of america meanwhtaking a under the hood under fears about the russia/ukraine conflict. the firm finds 2022 has been the

strongest start to the year for commodity prices since 2015. wti oil on track to finish up 26%, b of a also found investor selling has set some records so the biggest outflows ever from european equities and the flg financial sector and the financial sector is the worst performing s&p sector this week, down 6%. so i mean, on one hand, this seems like kind of straight typical performance chasing in terms of flows what would you like to see from investor behavior before you sort of have a sense that the market is about to stabilize >> well, i think what the report also showed is that investors aren't really just jumping out and exiting. what they're doing is rotating, so they're rotating from europe to the u.s they're rotating from cyclicals to big cap defensive type names.

and so that's a positive sign, but what we're going to need to see is that rerotation back to the growthier, riskier areas of the market to show maybe the risk-on mode is back in play what i thought was also interesting that the financials outflows, it seems like they're getting thrown out -- throwing the baby out with the bath water. look at jpmorgan, bank of america today. these companies are acting as if there is significant contagion from the russian and european situation right now. so i think it's really, really -- it's an interesting market that's creating in my opinion a lot of different great opportunities. >> the war between russia and ukraine having a major impact on the semi-conductor industry. kristina partsinevelos has the details and poor performance this week. >> yeah, definitely. we know the implications are broad across the board in the chip sector. it did start off on strong footing. new data actually shows global chip sales jumped 27% in january

with a 40% jump in the americas. but with the invasion under way, like you mentioned, volatility is just continuing across the board in names like amd and qualcomm you're seeing them all down today. the russian invasion conflict, it seems predicted, could have a minimal revenue impact of 1% to 2%, because russia contributes a tiny fraction of global semi-conductor sales you have no major chip giant headquartered in either country as well and major players from global foundries to micron that made statements insuring investors they could handle the risk after learning the hard way in 2014 after russia's takeover of crimea. >> thank you kristina partsinevelos lindsey, as it's not about the exposure to russia or the supply chain. is this a cyclical tell, what we're getting from the semis >> yeah, i mean, you know, i think that the move in the semis is really, really interesting. they have been really beaten down the smh is in bear market

territory, and you know, this is an industry that has actually evolved over the last several years between, i know kristina mentioned crimea also think about the u.s./china trade impact, the pandemic, so they have really diversified their suppliers. they have brought in more raw materials, backlogs, and i think they'rane position where you listen to a broad com call last night and they're talking about the backlog they have out for multiple years and the pricing that remains very strong so i think when you look at some of these companies, there is or could be opportunity, especially like a company like broadcom, which is really a higher quality semi-conductor company that has shareholder returns planned, strong free cash flow marges so that's what i would be looking for in this space. >> yeah, broadcom up about 3% today, and certainly one of the more value oriented names in that group, too. we do have a comeback in the broad market here in the last 15 minutes or so.

s&p 500 now down about 33 points 4330, so almost a percent above where it was at the lows earlier today. nothing too much news driven, but it seems like we did get a little traction at the 4300 level. take a look at some of the internals here it's been skewed to the downside in terms of breadth and still is it's about 2 to 1 declining. not quite 2 to 1 declining versus advancing volume. still a mixed tape, but skewed toward weakness. take a look at the transports, that's an offense versus defense measure. over the last six months, they have come from different directions but are basically meeting at the same spot transports had a real head of steam when it cams to the cyclical trade before omicron, and now utilities with a pretty good bid recently, but really over the last two years they have been left in the dust by the transports airlines really weighing on the transports volatility index still in an uptrend. off the highs. above 30 is still an agitated measure as we go toward the close. dow is only down 170 points.

s&p 500's high for the day was 4342 it's about 12 points below that now. going to go out with a loss for the week, but not a very big one. s&p about .75% today the nasdaq looks like there may be a firming up of the index russell 2000 down 1.5% >> welcome back to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here with mike santoli another down week for stocks marked by wild swings in stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies coming up this hour, david rosenberg on whether he sees more downside to this market as the dow falls for a fourth straight week. lindsey bell from ally invest is still with us. jeff sherman joins the conversation and jeff, the signal from bonds, what are we getting right now? we had a week where jay powell

testified two days in a row, there were market moving headlines including the fact he tipped his hand for a 25-basis-point increase in march, and of course, all sorts of headlines related to russia/ukraine major skyrocketing of commodities and plunging of currencies like the ruble. where do we come out of the week >> yeah, that's a lot to cover already to start off, sara but essentially, the bond markets caught the flight to quality bid. ultimately, the rates market is trading off of the ukrainian situation right now, and it's kind of ignoring the macro economic data. because the macro economic data is a bit stale but you mentioned soaring commodity prices, and this really is probably the fed's main concern here. is how this inflation genie stays in the bottle, and it's already busted out as you look forward here, the rates market is kind of disconnected from what you see on the inflationary side what you also see within the treasury market is the curve flattening and now you really are getting

to where the inflation component could actually lead to this kind of more stagflationary environment, where it really starts to cut off growth, as we have seen a huge spike not just in oil prices but commodity prices across the board. this goes for copper hitting an all-time high, wheat prices hit an all-time high, so although we talk about the fed and signaling 25-basis point hikes, the fed is still, i think, undeterred at this point to continue to start this hiking cycle. absent the commodity side of the equation, they're actually still is a lot of inflation in the system >> lindsey, on some levels, it's a tough time for the fed to be initiating a tightening campaign with the markets under this stress right now, and commodity prices not helping them out. however, the jobs number today suggests there's a little bit of an underpinning of momentum in terms of labor market and

consumer finances at least >> yeah, i was just thinking that in my head. the jobs report, it was so robust and i think that the consumer is the one thing that can help kind of offset that growth side of the stagflation equation i think the interesting paradigm that's happening here is higher levels of inflation could and perhaps are pushing people back into the job market more quickly than we would have otherwise anticipated. stimulus is gone and these consumers, especially on the lower end of the curve, really need to get back to work to be able to continue spending, regardless of what wages do, even if they're able to raise it 10%, you're likely to see spending from the consumer come down, so that lessens the demand, which hopefully will help reduce perhaps some of the commodity prices that we're seeing at such elevated levels here

reduced consumer demand for those items helping to offset and ease the inflation situation over time. >> so quickly, jeff, why did bonds rally today if the jobs number was so strong and the determination was that the economy is in a very good -- is in good shape as we go into this hiking cycle >> i think it's the news from last night in attacking a nuclear facility last night did not really bode well for the rates market so this is, i think, an example of people wanting to be defensive over the weekend, not wanting to own risk as we're seeing the situation unfold. so the bond market completely ignored the jobs report this morning. it ignored the fact that the wages are relatively flat, and you can take that in a couple ways you can say it's the hours worked that throws that down, it could be the position as well, but ultimately, the treasury market right now is not focused on the backward looking economic data it's looking at the current crisis that we're facing in the

ukrainian situation. >> well, and speaking of that situation, let's get to eamon javers for the latest developments in the conflict between russia and ukraine eamon. >> mike, that's right. president biden metd in the oval office this hour with finnish president to express u.s. support for the nordic country, which like ukraine, shares a long border and a complicated history with russia. the symbolism of the meeting was important. buttresses a friendly country that is not a member of nato, although support for joining the western military alliance has been growing in finland since the russian invasion last week now, meanwhile in europe, secretary of state antony blinken explained why the united states will not send troops into ukraine to fight russian soldiers that's logic that could apply to finland as well. >> we also have a responsibility as the secretary-general said, to insure that the war doesn't spill over even beyond ukraine

and again, because i think he put it so well, as he noted, the only way to actually implement something like a no-fly zone is to send nato planes into ukrainian air space, and to shoot down russian planes. and that could lead to a full-fledged war in europe >> it's been a day of intense global diplomacy aimed at containing russia with one possible bright spot coming from the pentagon this afternoon that said this hour that the united states has not seen any changes in russia's nuclear force posture despite aggressive nuclear rhetoric from president putin earlier in the week. back over to you >> eamon, thank you very much. >> jeff, just on this point that obviously investors are risk averse, therefore the buying of bonds, yields down where they are, is there any significance, some people pointing to the ten-year treasury yield still holding above 1.7%, maybe the uptrend is still there do you think it stops short of

being an all-out rush for safety >> you bring up a good point here because the technicals say the gap here, it really kicks in around 1.69 or so, and we continue to see that number. the gap down around the technical analysis side would be around 1.50. prior to this week, with the beginning of the invasion last week, you really saw the rates market really hold in there relatively well. so if this situation were to resolve itself in short order and none of us really know whether that's plausible or not, i do think you see a resumption of the upward trend in yields. so the inflation data is going to be here, even if we get a reversal in some of the commodity prices because you still have poor goods inflation, elevated levels. you have the services side of the equation that still doesn't really reflect all of the catch-up in the housing market we continue to talk about that, and ultimately, this wage growth we have seen will trickle into the inflation component. this is why the fed remains undeterred at this point

we have seen some repricing and hikes there, but what's a little concerning out there is the flattening of the yield curve and just given what we're seeing in the commodity complex and if this were boo be ongoing, it elevates the inflation risk. the move today is something about not wanting to own a lot of risk over the weekend you know, making yourself have a flight to safety bid you see it also in the strength of the dollar, so i think the good news for u.s. investors is that the u.s. is a little more currently insulated against this than say the eurozone. we're seeing the pain in europe this week. i do think that all in all, having a 1.71, 1.72 ten-year at this point, at the close of the day, does have some show that it's not just panic buying and panic selling on risk assets >> i was going to bring up the dollar because this was a very strong week for the dollar up 2%, which is not a typical move overall for the dxy you look at the euro, under 110,

the flight to safety, there weakness perceived in europe that's going to come as a result of the cut-off of the russian economy. lindsey, we're now back to levels we saw in 2020 during the height of the pandemic when people were really spooked by the economy's prospects. at what point does it become a headwind for corporate america or shift your thinking on things like multinationals because it's going to hurt earnings >> yeah, i mean, right now, the s&p 500 exposure to russia is quite small. but the question is, what is the tack-on effect to other economies that do feed into u.s. corporations and only time is going to tell, and it also depends on how long this conflict lasts. and the impact it has on commodity prices, and the consumer, and a lot of other things so right now, what we're seeing is a stabilization in earnings growth, right under 7% you still see margins hanging in there really well, too so i think going forward t is

going to be all about quality. the companies that can maintain pricing power and still continue to hold or raise margins that are really going to be the ones that can outperform, and we'll continue to see raises because people are expecting it less and less, especially as we cycle tougher comparisons. the question of slowing growth is front and center right now. so we're going to be watching closely as we move forward >> really quickly, jeff, you guys still long the dollar at doubleline >> yeah, we actually trimmed our non-dollar exposure towards the end of january along with some of our emerging market exposure. we thought that the era of easy money is over, and it was over globally, so it wasn't prediction of this crisis that was forthcoming, but upgrading credit quality is something we thought was the right move we continue to kind of focus on some of that we obviously still own credit out there, but from a portfolio positioning standpoint, we're very comfortable

we haven't made any dramatic shifts this week and again, you don't want to just revisit your portfolio on some geopolitical risk that's percolating all of a sudden, but we think there will be a better entry point to get the non-dollar and emerging market positions back and it's too early to start nibbling on those more risky parts of the market want to stay focused on higher quality. you want to own a little bit of interest rate risk at this point in time. we think having that balanced approach is the right place today. >> jeff sherman, thank you for joining us on an important week. and lindsey, before we let you go, we want to zone in on your top pick right now what is it >> yeah, i'm looking at the xlv, there health care spider index, started the segment off with i had a defensive tilt for a while. i'm sticking with that the xlv has really held in over the last four months and the great thing about health care that makes it attractive is looking at its earnings, they're

really reliable. it doesn't always get credit for that, but 50% of the time, they have earnings growth that's greater than the s&p 500, and they especially outperform the s&p 500 when earnings growth could be slowing or even declining. if you look at 2020, 2014, 2015, health care earnings growth was the best of all sectors within the index. you look at valuation at 16 times. it's about in line with its historical average it's a nice discount to the market and it has a 1.6% dividend yield which i know is below what the ten-year yield is at today, but it's outpacing inflation. i think this is an area if you're lacking conviction and you're scared of the uncertainty out there, this is good place you could probably hide. >> source of stability lindsey bell, thank you very much we are just getting started on the second hour of "closing bell." up next, david rosenberg on the outlook for the market and the economy, as the conflict between russia and ukraine intensifies

plus, a geopolitical expert weighs in on the potential risks of sanctioning russian oil and gas. we're back in two minus.te alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots.

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for just $64.99 a month. and ask how to add securityedge™. or, ask how to get up to a $650 prepaid card. for the session. and the week the dow posting its fourth straight weekly loss amid fears of an escalation in the russia/ukraine conflict. the nasdaq the worst performing today, losing more than 1.5% let's bring in david rosenberg i read your note today you were talking about how the u.s. economy's potential is stronger than we think there are buying opportunities are you becoming a little less negative about the prospects for the economy and the market when everybody is becoming more negative >> no, i wouldn't say that but you know, coming out of the storm, as you said, there are buying opportunities in select parts of the stock market. and i think that obviously, you want to reduce your cyclicality and become more defensive, but

there are areas coming out of this, defense, for example, i would say anything that's not corely with the economy and is insensitive to what's happening in the russia/ukraine disaster you know, you could talk about pipelines, you could talk about telecom. you could talk about health care i would even say some of the more defensive growth characteristics of the tech area, software, for example. these are areas that actually i think make a lot of sense. beyond obviously oil and gas so the commentary was that, you know, you want to raise cash you also want to be in the parts of the market that provide you safety and value and even some growth stability those are few and far between, but they still exist that was really the major point of the report i put out. g >> because we're going into a period of what stagflation, slower growth,

higher inflation >> everybody talks about stagflation, but what does it mean when we had stagflation in the 1970s, we had double-digit inflation, and we had do double-digit unemployment. i think there's a lot of hysteria over the term stagflation. we don't have double-digit unemployment, and although inflation is obviously elevated, it's not double digits so i don't think this is a stagflationary environment i think that what we have on our hands has been a massive supply shock. we had the pandemic and all of the impact that had on the supply chains. of course, i would say that inflation really took off, sara, exactly a year ago when the supply chain issues bumped against delta, then of course we had omicron, but then we had really a massive fiscal stimulus package at exactly the wrong time that exacerbated the demands. so now we have a situation, you look at commodity prices right now, it looks like a hockey

stuck pointing north so that's the inflation we're dealing with now i would still say it's principally cost push supply related and you ask mead about my view on the markets i don't remember a time, and maybe you can correct me, where the fed was raising interest rates into such a period of geopolitical instability i don't remember the fed under greenspan raising rates in 1990 under operation desert storm i don't remember the fed raising interest rates, and it wasn't a war, but we had major geopolitical and financial risk coming out of theat asian crisi in 1998. 2003, iraq war, did the fed raise rates then no, it didn't. we're in something totally brand-new. that's one reason why i'm reluctant to say i would be turning bullish in such an elevated period of uncertainty, and on top of that, the fed is going to be draining liquidity it's going to be challenging for

the stock market this is not over yet, in terms of not just the weakness but the volatility is going to be with us for some time >> when you look back at the initial tightening the fed has done after a multi-year easing program, so that would be like '94, 2004, 2015, the time from the first hike to the next recession is four to six years, something like that. why is it going to be different, if you think it is, this time? >> i hear that all the time, mike, and it's a totally irrelevant comparison. because historically, when the fed starts to raise interest rates, in a cycle, we're usually in the third inning. we're usually in the first third percent of the cycle, the fed starts to raise rates. we're now in the eighth inning and you can just look at a whole -- you can look at a whole bunch of different attributes, both economic and market, to make that assertion that we are late cycle right now and so to me, i think the shape

of the yield curve, i know i don't believe the three-month ten-year is the more relevant one because the three-month is just pick wrd the funds rate is right now. the two-year is telling you where the fed is going the fed is only embarked on a tightening cycle, mike, with the yield curve this flat one other time historically, and you know when that was? 1999 next thing you know, a year later, we're in a recession nobody was predicting. so the fed is playing with fire here people are saying they're behind the curve. okay, they might be behind the curve. what really struck me yesterday in the testimony, the q&a with jay powell, was when senator shelby brought up paul volcker's name, and the next thing you know, they're both talking about how great paul volcker was and we lionize him, he goes down as the greatest central banker of all time today when we look back, go back to the early 1980s, and he was vilified

you know, don reagan who was treasury secretary under the ronald reagan administration, wanted to sack him because to kill inflation, what did he do we had back-to-back recessions in 1980 and '81 and '82. you have to understand here that what is the nature of this inflation? we had these repeated really supply side shocks commodity prices aren't going up because we have a global demand boon so the only way the fed can really combat this sort of inflation is to destroy demand and gdp is demand. so if you want to compare to volcker, and of course, that was the tomic of conversation in yesterday's q&a, be careful what you wish for we look back at him as the greatest central banker of all time in the early 1980s, it took two severe recessions back to back the break the back of inflation back then. if that's the road the fed is going to be, you want to be very defensive in your portfolio. >> david rosenberg, i also

thought that was a pretty h hawh hawkish statement by chair powell thank you for joining us good to get your take, always. >> have a great weekend. >> you, too. >> up next, we'll dive into travel stocks which underperformed today and have been hit particularly hard since the conflict began in ukraine. >> plus, the latest details on russia's move to block access to facebook "closing bell" will be right back your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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some board news to tell you about. bobby codic will no longer stand for re-election as a board member of coca-cola where he's been on the board for a long time notable because in the statement, he is quoted as saying he's going to focus on selling his company to microsoft, which we knew about that deal, nearly $70 million to buy activision where he's the ceo, but the back story is he's been involved in a controversy and a scandal around his own company, where there have been questions about a toxic work culture, about sexual harassment, and a "wall street journal" investigation which implicated him, that he failed to share the allegations with the board and earlier than we found out about them so the board is fully backing

him. that is activision blizzard. but there were always questions at coca-cola, what are you going to do when the headlines were in the news looks like now he's going to step down. >> obviously, just questions of governance, and that's the job of the board, to oversee corporate governance >> that's not the reason, the reason they're saying is microsoft. interesting one to watch >> russia anonsing it is blocking access to facebook. julia boorstin here with the latest details >> russia saying this move is in response to facebook's decision to block russian media outlets such as rt and sputnik for people across the european union, citing 26 cases of, quote, discrimination against russian media and information resources. meta's president of global affairs responding, saying, quote, soon, millions of ordinary russians will find themselves cut off from reliable information, deprived of their everyday ways of connecting with family and friends and silences from speaking out, saying we'll

continue to do everything we can to restore our services. now, facebook has an estimated 7.5 million users in russia. that's according to insider intelligence, while its instagram has an estimated 53 million users. russia's media regulator did not mention whether this will apply to meta's other apps including instagram and whatsapp and meanwhile, it is worth noting there are also reports that twitter is being banned by the russian government no comment from twitter on this just yet guys >> interesting julia, thank you very much >> meantime, travel stocks were among the hardest hit names on wall street, in part on concerns surrounding the ukraine crisis seema modi has the details >> hey, mike quite the snapback after hitting new highs following strong earnings just a couple weeks ago. hilton and maruate ending the week down nearly 20% mcquarry cutting the price target on norwegian cruise line from $30 to $23, analysts saying no major

shift in the demand story, but now these broader concerns around the cost of fuel. that's weighing on estimates they are reiterating their outperform rating. shares falling for three weeks in a row norwegian along with royal caribbean suspending operations in russia this week. carnival's aida line saying it will not stop at st. petersburg port this summer as previously schedule and it follows for online travel platforms. bookings holdings which generates a significant amount of traffic in europe airbnb did fare better on the week on monday, we'll have a look at how travel to and from europe is starting to be impacted by the ongoing crisis in ukraine. geopolitical issues do typically result in a fall in tourism, similar to what we saw in turkey following an unsuccessful coup the question with this crisis is how far it extends beyond ukraine and russia >> seema, thank you very much.

it is time now for a cnbc news update with kelly evans >> hi, everybody here's what's happening at this hour a new reuters poll finding growing u.s. outrage against russia over its invasion of ukraine. it found 74% of americans want the u.s. and nato to set up no-fly zones to protect russia from -- ukraine from russian air strikes but the poll also found strong opposition to sending american troops to ukraine president biden and nato leaders have dismissed no-fly zones because of the risk of open conflict between nato and russian forces >> and amtrak engineer has been cleared of charges related to that deadly derailment in philadelphia in 2015 eight people died and more than 200 were injure whd the engineer accelerated the train while it was still in a turn. amtrak paid $265 million to settle civil lawsuits brought by victims and their families in california, road crews had to resort to explosives to clear this massive boulder blocking a

highway. the crews drilled 26 holes and placed 46 charges to break it up the highway is expect today reopen later today on the news, caring for orphans in ukraine and who is stepping up to help them join me right after jim cramer, 7:00 eastern, here on cnbc back to you guys >> an important one. thank you, kelly we'll see you then >> up next, a top strategist on why he thinkathize recent sell-off is a correction in the ongoing bull market. and later, geopolitical expert tells us whether sanctions will have any impact on changing russia's behavior in ukraine a quick check on bitcoin, lost some steam in the last couple hours. back below $40,000 the started the week strong, giving up some gains and heading south, down 6.4% right now we'll be right back.

welcome back time now for our rapid recap the dow falling for a fourth straight week, despite what was a better than expected february jobs report. labor department reporting non-farm payrolls increased by a higher than expected 678,000 jobs last month. unemployment rate slipping to 3.8% treasury yields falling sharply

and that hit financial stocks hard american express, visa, jpmorgan and goldman sachs accounting for more than half of the dow's decline today. and oil prices continuing to spike because of the war between russia and ukraine wti crude soaring more than 20% this week. settling at the highest level since 2008 >> well, let's talk more about this volatile week for the market joining us is america's chief investment officer at morningstaur investment, and keith warner good to have you both here keith, i wonder if you can get us started with the kind of field position you see that stocks might have right here s&p closed down 10% from its high we have been mired in this area for more than a month right now. corrections are routine, but the circumstances surrounding this one maybe not so routine given what's going on with signs of systemic risk and the geopolitical situation

>> great to be with you, mike and sara, again. that's right as far as the market, we have been in a range. i think this week, even though the headlines have been negative, at least domestically, the s&p is only down about 1%. in some ways i think that's relatively good, relative to the headlines. we see overseas markets down 10%. this really re-enforces our long standing u.s. equity overweight. and going to more specifically to your question about field position i think it's going to be choppy waters here near term. the downside, 4100 level, that was around an 18 pe for the market, one of the lowest valuations we have seen since the pandemic started and on the upside, i think the upside is likely capped around 4600 we will likely continue to have a tug of war near term as we get later into the second half, as we start to see some of the inflation trends hopefully come down, i think we'll likely have more of a push to the upside, but again, near term,

more choppy waters over the last week in a sector standpoint to reflect the choppy waters we have been overweight energy the whole year, but we also upgraded consumer staples which is still underperforming by about 30% since the pandemic and upgraded utilities to have more of a balance in the portfolio structure. >> marta, so many moving parts for an investor right now, if you have an asset allocation strategy bonds are down on the year, yes, they rallied this year commodities racing ahead we do have a lot of these very fast moving macro farcts in a portfolio that maybe has hit more bumps than we got used to in the last year or so what do you think are the most relevant decisions that investors should be looking at making right here? >> thanks, mike. i think one of the top concerns for investors right now is just panic. we had enormous amounts of terrible news around the world, and we also have concerns around inflation and what rising rates could mean

and this comes on the heels of a really strong market environment that is something we have benefitted from year over year over year. the concern is that investors who certainly aren't as used to any major volatility or negative news could cut and run i think that is one of the worst strategies we could have now, whether there are better areas to be in the market than others, that's certainly the case and i think it's especially important that investors consider markets or asset classes that can move out of sync with one another. though rising rates may be on people's minds, treasuries have utility in a portfolio i think it's important to stay the course and also to have a very robust portfolio on hand. >> should you boost exposure to commodities or have we seen the move they're still reaching record heights, a lot of these commodities, every day >> absolutely. frahm morningstar investment's standpoint, we had energy exposure, particularly mpls in

our portfolio for quite some time that hurt us in 2020, but in this market correction, it's been a source of ballast for us. now, we're revisiting the valuations there it's been big moves so whether it's as positive going forward, the valuation is going to be on the side in the same way it's been, but it's more attractive than some of the tech areas that could be more sensitive to rate increases. >> just talking about the large cap growth area, back in 2020, they had defensive properties. faang was acting like both defensiveness and growth in a portfolio. they havelost that obviously, we had this macro struggle and they have not really done much of anything except go down and valuations get compressed do you see that changing do you see them coming back into favor for any reason >> we still think within tech, we have to distinguish kind of what you mentioned, more on what parts of tech. i think the mega cap tech side is still somewhat attractive given the big balance sheets

given the cash flow. and if we're going to have somewhat of a slower global economy and a slower u.s. economy relative to what it looked like before this, i think on the margin that becomes a bit more attractive. that's having some ballast we also have an overweight towards real estate. if you look at the reit index, that has a tech component to that that's held up well. it has a nice dividend we're also overweight energy we have been overweight the energy secter for some time, a great outperformer i suspect that's more likely to pause after this big run, but like i said i think it's a point in the cycle where we have been bullish the last two years we bring that in a little bit, and even your sector exposure should be more balanced. >> it's kind of the midcycle, maybe late cycle playbook. keith, marta, thank you very much appreciate it. >> thank you up next, we will look at whether stalling wage growth could be a cause for concern when it comes to consumer

spending >> plus, all eyes will be on apple next week when it hosts a product launch event find out what to expt teon longell.eclar check out this vrbo. come on. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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welcome back mike has made his way over to the telestrator for a closer look at the labor market and wages in particular after today's better than expected jobs report, what did not come

in better than expected were wages. >> the one downside surprise and basically flat month over month. still at a healthy year over year level, but below forecasts. here's the longer term path since early 2021 in blue here is wage growth. we see it ticking down this is the year over year percent change again, still relatively healthy. it's going up against labor force participation. which has lagged, of course, pre-pandemic levels, but you see it actually did click higher this month obviously, these things are somewhat related more people going into the labor force in theory helps the labor supply issues and could moderate wage growth. there's also a mixed issue, services jobs coming back. it does have an effect perhaps on what lower income households are able to spend. obviously, oil prices, gasoline prices, food prices are the bigger point here. wolf research has a basket of what they call low-end spending proxies. mostly discount retailers, rent-a-center, dollar stores, things like that

they have already vastly underperformed the question here is, has the market already figured this out and punished those companies that are going to be perhaps having a harder time because there's just less to go around we talk about the pent-up savings in aggregate yes, in aggregate, there's a big cushion, but it's not allocated equally. >> it's also come down, back to pre-pandemic levels. the other thing with this chart that's interesting for a while is a lot of consumer staples analysts have picked up on the pricing power these companies have is at the higher end. the cigarette companies, for instance, that cater to the lower end consumers, they don't have the same kind of general mills and kellogg, they don't have the same pricing power as some of the luxury brands. i think that's part of it. >> follows along with that >> energy prices spiking amid the crisis between russia and ukraine. and now the eu is weighing energy sanctions on russia following the nuclear power

plant. we we'll weigh the big risks and break down what's at stake "closing bell" will be right back alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league!

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energy sanctions against russia following the attacks on a nuclear power plant, this follows heavy sanctions imposed by the u.s. and its allies against vladimir putin russia's central bank and the banking system let's bring in doug rediker from brookings to sort through the implications here. doug, this has been one of the big questions in terms of potential next steps the idea of an outright ban on russia oil imports is that likely to be an effective move do you think it's a likely one >> well, let's break down what that means there's first of all, there's a u.s. ban on imports, there's an eu ban on imports, and then there's the u.s. and the eu, but primarily the u.s. actually imposing an oil export sanction on russia. in various grades of impact, if the u.s. simply imposes an import ban, that's a sort of a big deal, but not as big of a deal on the global market because really the u.s. only

imports a relatively small amount of oil from russia, and if they're allowed to export elsewhere, then again, systemically, it's not a huge thing. that doesn't mean politically, it wouldn't have significance here, but it doesn't mean it's a systemic thing if the eu does something similar, that's a big deal because although the u.s. and the eu are not the sum total of russia's export market, combined that is a big export market for russia that's going to have a big impact but it's going to have a big impact on europeans and americans as well. in their individual lives. that's why politicians have been very reluctant to go there if we take that final step and actually put a sanction on the export of oil from russia, that means you're sanctioning their exports to anywhere in the world. and then you run into some questions about whether the chinese would or would not abide by it. it's a bigger deal still but in various levels it's big, bigger, and biggest, and if we start going down that route, there's going to be a significant impact on russia and on oil prices.

>> well, let's say it does not happen, at least not soon. it's only been a week since the existing sanctions were in place. many companies taking it upon themselves also to cut ties. is this over time, do you think, going to have the intended effect of changing putin's behavior?behavior? >> this being oil sanctions? >> no the sanction that's are already in place. >> the sanction that have already been put in place, look, sanctions could play three different roles, could be a deter ant that didn't happen because the war is happening it didn't deter the war. they could be punishment i'd say is going on right now, or they could be structured to negotiate leverage, to turn it up or down, depending on what vladimir putin decides to do on the ground. i don't think that what we've done so far is in the final category of negotiating leverage sanctions because you're not going to say we're going to give the oligarch s back some of the

its gains not going to say russia can intervene in the market a little bit not a lot. a lot of the sanctions are designed to punish is going to deter further action from vladimir putin? we don't know. we haven't seen it so far. this talk in washington about the white house being concerned backed him into a corner he might react even worse. i think these sanction were necessary for political messaging. for actually doing bad things to the bad guy. but whether they change the course of vladimir putin's thinking on his desire to change the regime and take over control of ukraine, i'm not convinced >> what are the other options on that front, of course, establishing a no-fly zone the ukrainian president called for, nato ruled it out. there's 74% of adults supporting u.s. and nato to stop u.s. fly zones to stop russian airstrikes

on ukraine is that even possible to do? >> certainly possible to do but as the white house has made very clear, what it means is putting u.s. and nato forces in direct conflict, in a military sense, with russia's forces that's something we have sought to avoid for oh, i don't know 75 years or so. >> that's what i mean. >> yeah. so, so the no-fly zone as a concept who could oppose it. the russians are committing atrocities, killing innocent people and we have technical capacity to at least impede it if not outright stop it, but by doing so we risk -- i don't like to use phrases as of ten days ago were considered to be hyperbo l e, things like world war thing and nuclear we use as figure ative concepted ant don't want to see them enter as litteral concepts.

so white house is careful that it stays in the hyperbole not in the literalful if, if we engage in no-fly zone confrontation risks of getting into the literal context go way higher than any leader in this country or europe wants to see right now. >> you mentioned china how it might react to a ban on russian energy exports but in general, what do you think about china's stance right now and potential role weahether negotiated settlement or anything else regarding this conflict. >> i think china is a big disappointment to a lot of us, let's assume china acts in its own self-interest which is not generally aligned with that of the united states, nevertheless, in its own self-interest one would assume they risk every day being seen as complicit with vladimir putin and russia in this atrocity. that means they lose the benefit of any trading good will, any

agreements they might have or want to have with the united states and with the european union, their two largest markets. it was just a question of the calculus of what's in their self-interest we would have assume president xi would have by now started to put pressure on his friend president putin. we have not seen that. the chinese leadership, president xi in particular do not change course easily or quickly. at least for now they're not taking changes to the position of being very close friends between the chinese and russian leader and that is one of the big impediments to seeing progress on this >> neil ferguson suggested they could negotiate a peacekeeping role, thank you for your time. up next, apple wrapping up today's shareholder meeting but the big event xtne week, details

next

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vrjs a double dose of apple news to end the day, they held their shareholder meeting told and

gearing up for a big product event next week. steve, with the details. >> that's right, tim cook surprised the push to get rid of about half his equity pay over the next five years. the real apple event will be next tuesday, we expect a 5g version of the budget se phone and we know 5g was big catalyst of sales for iphone and iphone 13 we'll see if it transfer over and cool features, you can unlock your iphone wearing a mask and square competitor to bump to pay iphones to send and receive payments going to be a big event, mike. >> those features you're talking about are going to be in the new low-cost phone or it's a software feature more broadly available >> it's a software update for ios for everyone you can already unlock your

phone with a mask going to be on all iphones. >> just in time hopefully for when he are not going to be wearing masks. >> exactly as the mask mandates end. >> yeah that's all right it's still a cool feature. steve, appreciate it have a great weekend. >> thanks, mike. >> new apple reporter for cnbc. >> that's right, steve, we'll be seeing him a lot more. another down week for the market looked like actually we'd be resilient, few points on the week we went positive but too much uncertainty and weakness in europe, too much weakness in what's happening overseas. >> and oil is moving too fast, dollar is moving too fast. i do think there's a eye of the beholder effect, down 1.2% on the s&p 500, given all that's been loaded on to the market arguably is not the worse outcome, holding above the lows. it's very tentative and difficult to say anyone could handicap the next few steps in this process in terms of what happens in ukraine

i do know any sign of deescalation the market is primed because of sentiment and positioning being very depressed, i think that's what you get finally another bounce >> the warnings from the experts this might go on for a long time. >> absolutely. >> have i good weekend, everybody, that's going to do it for "closing bell. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite in time square, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. tonight's trader lineup tim seymour, jeff mill, steve grasso and pete najarian. right now, we chart the tran transports, see where we go from here we interrupt "star wars", frozen, bambi for this disney commercial break, they will have a cheaper version with commercials is adds on streaming hotter and wheat getting whacked. cannot get a bump after an