tv Squawk Box CNBC March 7, 2022 6:00am-9:00am EST
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it is monday, march 7th, 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. welcome to "squawk box." good morning we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today. this is something to sit up and get attention on monday morning. s&p futures down 70. all of this happening as crude oil hitting the highest level since 2008 w we will have more in a moment. wti up 6% to $122.49 it went as high as $130 overnight. a check on other commodities
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you will see the grains which is wheat up%. corn up 2.5% palladium up 12% if you have been watching treasury yields, more of the flight to safety people buying bonds. yields have gone up. this morning, yields go down the 1.727%. >> all-time high in gold i don't remember it being above 2,000. now to the latest in ukraine. russia offering a temporary cease-fire after shelling disrupted civilian evacuation from major cities for two straight days. the international red cross blamed ukrainian and russian forces for the botched evacuations for failing to agree on the details of the safe
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passage. u.s. secretary of state blinken said he had seen credible reports of deliberate attacks on civilians which constitute a war crime. separately, secretary blinken said the u.s. and allies are considering banning russian oil and imports. let's bring in rob, the founder of rri advisers. rob, not a huge surprise that the united states and allies are talking about this at this point. it has put pressure on prices. what would you do at this point looking at crude oil and trying to figure out if you were going to trade this market what would you do? >> good morning. you know, we're in a tough spot here i was on the show back in september. we talked about a lack of capital investment in how that
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was effectively serving to tighten the market relative to what was proven to be strong demand now, we're in a position here where oil prices are generically inversely correlated with capacity excess capacity goes down and the market perceives that is the case and the oil prices go up. so, with the russia situation, which i comment nobody on the oil side really wants. this is disruptive and not favorable. we're running the risk of taking 3 million or 4 million barrels out of the market relative to russia excess global capacity goes to zero or if there is such a thing, a negative number that means prices have to go to a level to ration demand there is no ability to step into the market from the supply standpoint to manage the loss of what could be a significant portion of excess global
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capacity so, you see, the administration now talking with the venezuelans and trying to figure out something with the iranians, et cetera they are grasping at straws at this point again, with the issue being what is grounded in all of this is the idea that global investment has collapsed post covid and it was starting to happen pre-covid. the only real answer is we're in the soup for a while and the only answer is invest in capital on the upside of global industry >> rob, what do you think of the deal with venezuelans or iranians could that help? >> maybe on the margin the problem in venezuela is we're back to the lack of capital investment that has been a sub optimal situation for years. not a lot of capital has been
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invested in what is dilapidated and expensive infrastructure i suspect when we go to venezuela, we will find out what everybody's expectation is with capacity the problem with iranranians, ty probably have been smuggling crude in the market anyway i don't think they have as much supply as everybody things you have a core issue in those countries. you have sour and heavy barrels and the problem with that it is not applicable to put the barrels in any refinery. it becomes a selective problem with the slates of crude really go >> this is the west that we would be talking about boycotting russian oil it was happening anyway. nobody wanted to buy russian oil last week for fear of getting
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caught up in this. it doesn't mean it can't go to china or other places in the east if they started picking up some of this, would there be other oil to come back this direction or not >> i think on the margin, that is probably true you are talking about rerouting global supply chains which is less than optimally efficient. we get into refineries and grades of crude which is particularly true in places like the u.s. gulf coast. it is by far the most sophisticated refining complex in the world there is a limit with how much light crude we can process with heavy crude. the reality is we don't import much crude from russia there is a lot of talk about that that has been spotty it has been over the last year or so. it gets back to the point that the market has been tightening for the better part of almost
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two years. why did we start importing if it is only a few hundred thousand pa barrels a day? it is because other supplies and opec countries have been unable to meet quotas that is putting us in a point where we source barrels from pl places like russia we are looking at meimmemedium d heavy barrels to match the crude in the gulf. >> rob, when there are high prices like this, the solution is high prices encourages companies to put more money into drilling to get things out of the ground quickly that hasn't happened in this case because of the big majors feeling pressure from shareholders also pressure from the administration to not be doing this and looking at carbon capture and other things do you anticipate where that actually changes or is this something where the administration has to call on
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them to do this? >> so it will be hard. you know, we talked last fall about the idea of the supply side of the equation from the supply elasticity standpoint and not behaving the way it should that means in response to higher and higher prices, you typically see a pick up in capital investment, in this case drilling that is not happening at rate or speed with which one would expect it would. i think some of that is grounded in the concept of the last decade of failing returns across the dindustry now the management teams want to remedy that and return capital to shareholders, et cetera some is grounded in policy you are exactly right. when the administration came into office a little over a year a ago, within the first week, they told the gas and oil industry we he don't like you. we will do everything we can to
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impede your progress people shouldn't be surprised when you send that message that the industry reacts in a certain way. they have. now they are begging for the industry to do something different. that is going to be very hard. that's a labor issue in west texas. it is steel. it is spare parts. it is pipe it is all of the above which has to completely reverse course, if you will, to remedy the outcome. that cannot happen quickly >> oil prices have been up which of those names of the energy companies do you like if any? >> within reason, you can almost look at the whole industry we have been focused on the subset natural lichtmquid and propane in april and may of 2020 right after the beginning of the lock lockdowns, we saw something happening which is the demand
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for propane went up as opposed to down and rates were collapsing on the margin like oventive. occidental which buffett was into on friday occi is the second largest producer of natural gasses there is a whole list of names i think where this ends is in the context of esg and the energy transition and all that other stuff, my friend paul stankey, with the law of physics. that will transition to the thesis which is energy and supply and security and reliability. the united states has an ocean of natural gas under it. we have one of the oil fields in
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the world with the permean the other place to look is the infrastructure which was shunned a year or two ago. we're now learning if that is an energy transfer. some of the big integrated bid stream names that is now turk out to be the most valuable infrastructure in the world. understanding a year ago, people would have basically given it away there is a big transition happening through the course of the market here. i don't think this market has appropriately priced these things that will icontinue to evolve >> rob, those are deep thoughts. we appreciate you sharing them with us this morning >> thank you >> thank you netflix is pulling service in russia. the streaming service announced the move yesterday afternoon it has under 1 million subscribers there.
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disney, warner bros. and sony and paramount halted film debuts in russia. tiktok announced it would suspend new video uploads and live streaming in russia that is after the country implemented a law threatening prison time for publishing what is considered false information about the invasion of ukraine. it can only imagine what they consider falses information. >> anything they don't like. >> false information about the invasion >> on the financial front, visa and paypal and american express banning financials in the country. and still ahead, warren buffett with the occidental buy this
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morning. and the dow futures down 1.5%. crude oil up 6%. a gain of $7 to $122.70 a barrel "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities experience expertise. execution. at?" starts here the blank page artists and writers know the tyranny of it well but so do developers, data scientists, ctos the new creators to them, we say let's create something that changes everything ♪ ♪ ♪ ibm let's create ♪ ♪
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what a difference a week makes. last week at this time, we talked about how warren buffett did not like anything to buy that changed he will buy $5 billion shares of occidental he made that decision after reading the earning call from friday, february 25th. he tells cnbc, i read every word this is what i would be doing. she is running the company the right way. buffett referring to the president and ceo of occidental. we started buying on monday. we bought all we could he called vicki hollub and told her he bought the stake. the stock gaining 45 pue% that .
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occidental accounts for 1% of the oil output it hasn't disclosed the position because it has announced to buy more shares in the company that stake is now at 17% and carl icahn sold. icahn exited a 10% stake in occidental his two representatives on the board are resigning and, joe, you remember this, he didn't like the price that they were paying warren buffett to go ahead and finance that deal. he had issues about it it went from 2.5% stake in march of 2020 when oil prices collapsed. the journal thinks he made $1
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billion. >> when did he sell? >> last week the same time. he sold -- >> after the move? >> at the beginning of the week, that stock at $47. he started selling on monday at the same time buffett started buying stock went up significantly over the course of the week look at the five-day chart of occidental it's a $60 now $17 of that came on friday. >> that's what i mean. i don't know what's it matter to him? he has $20 billion things like that stick in his craw if he sold at 40. >> it is going north of 60 coming up, more of today's top stories. including a second day of trucker protests in the capitol beltway. as we head to break, here is a look at cryptocurrency prices.
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indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire an update on the convoy of truckers and other vehicles that encircled washington, d.c. yesterday. trucks and mini advanvans and p trucks and motorcycle staged near maryland. they are boycotting the masks
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and vaccination mandates, many of which are rolled back by states in recent weeks, as new covid cases drop the governor of new jersey is coming on to talk about that today. the organizers plan to return to the beltway again today. >> in new jersey, it is no longer mandatory for students to wear masks in public schools. >> private schools still my son in college. >> college is a different story. also, "the batman" topping the weekend. $128 million in north american ticket sales the second highest opening of the pandemic era it comes behind "spiderman:no way home." >> i thought michael keaton, but
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actually adam west is the best it will never been evergreen same with "spiderman." when people were buying marvel and paying all that money -- >> it was not as much as anybody thought. >> there is never an end almost like jason. jason is coming back i guarantee you. >> 13 of those >> at least. >> you reboot 1 through 13 and make a better one. >> yeah. there's that, too. when we come back, the futures are set to plunge at the open this morning. we're talking about the dow futures down 300 points. s&p off 66 we will show you what is moving beneath the surface. and shorting russia seems like a good idea, but the russian stock market ususpended there. a lot of people are stuck in those positions. we have that story after this
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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the market site in times square futures are under water 477 points this morning. crude prices were all the way, not just brent, but wti, as high as $130. let's get to the invasion of ukraine. let's get to nbc's molly hunter in lviv with the latest. hi, molly. >> reporter: good morning. we are in the west of the country in lviv. this is the destination for anyone fleeing the violence and bouncing off point for anyone getting out of the country 1.5 million people have left the country. this morning, we are focused on the possible cease-fire in the eastern cities in kyiv and
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mariupol the russian side and ukrainian side agreed to the cease-fire on saturday and sunday. within hours, there was russian shelling and the cease-fire fell apart. we woke up to a statemen announcing a cease-fire. that is not how cease-fires work a couple of hours later, the ukrainians said that is not acceptable the routes the russians proposed were to russia and belarus the prime minister said we are not under any circumstances sending our people to russia or belarus. ukrainians set up new cease-fire proposals with safe corridors heading west to where i am the icrc, the neutral body on the ground has been brokering the proposals. they are trying to get both sides to agree for a cease-fire to be successful, both sides have to
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agree on location and who is allowed out and exactly the route of the humanitarian corridor everyone is trying to make their safety to the west or out of the country or stay here as a displaced person to ride it out before they can go home. back to you. >> very good molly, thank you nbc's molly hunter in lviv, ukraine. shorting russia may have seemed like a lucrative trade, but with the exchange halted, a lot of people are stuck in positions. leslie picker has more on that leslie >> reporter: becky, you think shorting russia would be profitable with the stocks in free fall before the markets shutdown as you mentioned, short sellers were actually in russian companies up $723 million in
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market-to-market profit year to date according to s3 partners. it is difficult for short sellers to crystalize the profits. some are stuck in the positions until the moscow exchange reopens which will not be for a few more days. the longer they wait to cash out, the more fees stock can rise although markets can close. more exit the positions and the pool will shrink causing rates paid daily to rise some fees have jumped from 25 basis points to more than 2% on average. in some cases, over 20% for some of the adrs. that will force more shorts to cover which will provide
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liquidity with when trading resumes. guys. >> it seems like karmic justice profiting on people's pain >> reporter: it is that, but a lot of the short sellers were short before the crisis came to the floor. s they have been on the trades betting on the decline of the russian stock market it is an interesting sidebar to the day namdynamic of the marke shutdown how does that effect players on the trade? in the case of the short sellers, it is one where they have tucstuck in the positions when the market reopens, this is what you hear short sellers talk about all the time they would provide liquidity for a long holders looking to exit short sellers would buy to cover. >> complicated market proves this is not easy to do no matter how much you think or understand which way things are headed.
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>> reporter: i think a lot of people are sitting out any trade related to ukraine and russia with the uncertainty and volatility with no trading to be had. >> leslie, thank you >> the market cap we talked about with the russian stock market not their thing over there i don't know what their thing is nuc nukes, i guess. we will show you what is moppi moving next. we will talk to governor phil murphy as well you can watch or listen to us anytime on the cnbc app. we'll be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. and . i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust.
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and penn national gaming commodity prices not headed that way. palladium up 10% gold was over $2,000 a ounce joining us is siylvia jablonski. and gunjan is with us as well. gunjan, you pointed out that it is a little strange that most people aren't changing a lot of what they're doing based on this because of previous history of geopolitical events. we had a conversation during the break about depressing things. the dooms day clock at 100 seconds before midnight. still thousands of nukes on both sides. we thought that we didn't need to necessarily worry about it. my kids did not worry about this like i did back in the '60s.
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it is back front and center. i guess the world can only end once it is unlikely anything like that is going to happen. isn't it possible this geopolitical event could drag out longer than what we have seen in the last 30 years or so and could be material to the global economy >> it certainly seems that way the one word that keeps coming up in my conversations with investors is stagflation they are saying this looks stagf stagflationary there are concerns of economic growth could soften at the time when inflation is running so, so hot. prices were already at a 40-year high we had a price shock on top of that with oil prices above $120 a barrel wheat prices reporting the biggest one-week gain since the 1950s. corn prices surging. we had the incredible price
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shock when inflation is running so hot that's concerning. >> sylvia, if investors discounted every possible black swan event, you would never been in the market. it does seem like -- i don't want to use that term whistling past the graveyard it seems like we are pollyannish. if you stay long and don't change anything here, are you ignoring the possibility of what can happen do worst-case scenarios never happen we had a two-year pandemic that wasn't supposed to be possible >> good morning. that's a great point i think the geopolitics are very difficult to navigate and it is tough to make decisions in the market like this you know, everything in the past is not exactly as it is today with russia and ukraine. if you look past it, you see when things came to an end, those years were up 10%.
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in the short-term, we cannot be pollyannish. if you have cash on the sideline and you are looking for that cash to grow and invest somewhere, leaving it in cash with inflation is taking a loss. you have opportunities in the market on the other hand, if you are fully invested, if you don't need that cash, you are best to ride this out. it is a tough call you cannot predict what will happen with ukraine and russia and how long it will last. before this, we had excellent jobs numbers and economy that looked to be recovering. if this doesn't go on too long, we get back to the bright spots. if it doesn't, it will be a drag and that weight to get investments back in hand with improved sort of position which will be a longer wait. >> you would be at this point if you had cash, you would be strategic and at times, you
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would put it to work if youyou something you like >> we have nasdaq near correction territory you have the faang which are capit capitalized. buy backs with amazon and google and microsoft. i talk about them often. 30% growth in cloud. close to 40% profits for apple. th those are on sale. you are looking at the infrastructure spending which we were trying to get past before the 5g is a big topic. we see the need to have instant data from sensors and targets and signaling. the russia and ukraine situation reminds us how much we need to invest in technology and that touches semiconductors and that touches communications and towers and that provide that infrastructure i think there are spots where you can go in which is better than sitting in cash and
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inflation impact your portfolio in a negative way. >> good point. gunjan, the worst-case scenario, now i'm worried about lithuania. i see maps of the old soviet union. i don't know how long this lasts and i don't know what our response is and if it is a nato country and so much to worry about of the in terms of oil prices and commodity prices, the transitory hopes of inflation are now completely dashed. for the foreseeable future don't stocks do better in an inflationary environment than some other assets anyway maybe you do stay long >> investors i have been speaking to said the geopolitical crises which are tragic, historically, they have
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not dented long-term u.s. stock returns. when you zoom out, this down turn is already testing investors more than the bear market that we saw during the covid-19 pandemic when it took around 23 or 24 days for the s&p to bottom. we are already looking at more than 40 days now it is tested investors the swings don't same to be slowing down take a look at the pre-market activity >> yup okay ladies, thank you. sylvia and gunjan, thank you >> thank you >> i don't know. let's keep positive and optimistic if i let myself go, i can get really -- >> i was buying last week and the week before. prices are down substantially. you can look at the worst-case sce scenario if that happens, what does it matter it doesn't matter where it is in the nomarkets. it's out the window.
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>> we have a lot of nukes. what do we need them for they can never been used. >> make sure they can't use them on us. >> warped logic. >> worked for a long time. >> bilaterally >> it is a good idea dealing with rational person. >> then all bets are off >> you hope rational people on that side are watching and taking care of it, too that's all you can hope for in that scenario. when we come back, $4 a gallon for gas the national average hitting the highest level since 2008 this weekend. just 11 cents away from the all-time high. guess what prices up today. that means prices will continue to climb we'll talk about the impact of i flags on the midterms after this and s&p gainers.
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momentum growing in congress for a ban on russian oil president biden is also got inflation worries here at home with prices at pump ahead of november midterms. demands are conflicting and led to the u.s. talking with unlikely allies for assistance reportedly including venezuela and saudi arabia joining us for more on that situation is former democratic congress member donna edwards. she is running for other old congressional seat we have to disclose that, don't we >> that's right.
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>> you know, we probably called and they didn't want to come on. we say that. call us. we'll put you on we have republican former white house chief of staff mick mulvaney the co-chair of active consulting. and co-chair of actm consulting ah i filled my tank and sort of had a little bit of a sicker -- congressman if we ban russian oil, getting closer and closer theoretically is that something that the president can do, torpedoes be damned about november >> well no i think the president is looking at a couple of things. as you look at his state of the union message, what he talked about, releasing millions of barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. also, you know, trying to look at alliances with unsuspecting
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countries, ven sezuela, et cete. the real question is whether europeans will go along with that, because we might suffer a drop of 7% to 10%. europe, of course, is deeply reliant on that russian oil. so i think it's about working these partnerships and relationships with allies so that we have as unified a response on oil production as we have had in the conduct of the ukrainian support for the war. look, this is tough. i'm looking out my window here, and i can see the marquee on my gas station, and it's $4.49. so it bites, but i think americans also are understanding -- u.s. what's going on in the world and be willing to do our share to make
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sure that we hold russia to account. >> that's probably a pretty good point. don't you think, nick. everybody needs to look at what's happening i don't know if we've ever had, with social media, had a war hit home this much with the sights and sounds and everything that we're seeing, but do you think we should not worry about $4, $5, $6 gas at this point and try to cut off russia at the knees, nick, or not >> disagreeing with donna up to the last thing she said. everybody would understand if gas prices went up, because we shut off russian access. russian energy sales, and we probably need to be doing that we're sending russia ourselves almost $100 million a day for their gas and their oil. europeans send them even more. remember, nord stream 2, has a 2 after it for a reason. nord stream 1 is still functions. there is another way
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shut off russian access to russian fuel and if we simply produced more here it would lower prices here and provide europeans with an outlet, replacement for the russian oil. i hear people talking about banning russian oil sales. i'm all for that and recognize the fact that by itself would drive up gas prices here why aren't we also talking about making more? we can do that relatively quickly. i saw nancy pelosi saying she wanted to ban russian sales. yeah i support that the next breath, won't allow more drilling on federal land. joe biden needs to come out with at least a temporary change to american energy policy the right thing to do domestically and when it comes to helps european friends overseas. >> whenever i bring that up, nick, i hear these -- i -- i hear narratives, and i won't call it soft strategies. used that term a couple weeks ago and i've seen it everywhere now, but i'm told by pitbull
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when you make that argument you're really not damping production efforts in this country. that people, drillers have leases they're not acting on and able to drill but don't want to. more rigs in operation than end of the trump administration middle of a pandemic i hear all kinds of excuses. i said it was a little weird, nick, because prior very proud to shut down production and keep it in the ground for climate change now saying, no, no, no we didn't do anything to try to dampen production, we're you know, drill, baby, drill i don't know what's true, but the, keystone xl wasn't coming here anyway. that wouldn't change anything. would it what could we do immediately to try to open the spigots and when would you see benefit of that, in months? >> if the argument is it's going
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to take a long time. sanctions take a long time there's nothing you can do overnight to solve the problem and certainly releasing strategic pa petroleum reserves is a joke. less than one day's worth of worldwide production this is going to take time but signaling counts signaling that we're going to allow drilling in the u.s., repermit the keystone pipeline signal we're going to let other things happen regulatorly, regulate the government on everything that stands between goods and services and what people want. democrats by their nature want got to do more that means spend more and regulate more. that is always going to have an inflationary pressure in the market sometimes it makes a difference. now it does. if democrats would simply do what the green party has done in germany, and say, look we're going to have a temporary change in our energy policy that would have an anticipatory affect on the market, yes,
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wouldn't hit bottom line right away but would start moving things in the right direction and give more options dealing with the russians. >> congresswoman, do you think regulatory action in the energy-related industry, by the biden administration has made it more difficult to produce the same amount of hydrocarbons we were before? is that on the biden administration or do you have the facts and figures i just mentioned that dispute that >> no. i mean, first of all, mick has it all wrong, dead wrong there is plenty of production capacity we can have with existing leases, existing leases in the public sector, and the private sector, and oil companies -- you know, it's a double-edged sword as long as those oil prices are up, people are making a lot of money. so we need to, know, ensure that there is maximum capacity with the existing leases that we
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have, with existing production facilities that we have in the united states, and around the world, to try to make up some of that gap in this short-term period, we're not going to be able to make all of it, but we can make up enough to lower prices for your average consumer, and so that's what i worry about in that i think it's, you know, quite convenient that in a time of -- of war and the no ed to bring down prices the first go-to for republicans is, you know, changing regulations and increasing federal leases we don't need to do that >> well, at least agree that supply and demand issue. chuck schumer saying we have high prices because of monopolies and price goumps. at least we're having a sane discussion about this. joe, what's coming out of the white house? saw nothing in the speech that deals with inflation
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kamala harris say that she thought long beach resolution cision months ago would solve the problem. we're not seeing anything come out of this white house or this administration to actually address the problem. saying it will get worse might do a little here did the spr, strategic pa petroleum reserve, didn't have impact, won't now. what's happening i'm looking for that as a consumer and i don't see it yet. >> go back, mick, and read the speech, because right after the president laid out his strategy on ukraine there was an entire section that dealt with inflation and prices recognizing that inflation is happening, laying out both short term and long term ways in which to deal with inflation go back and read his speech. >> donna, in fairness i don't mean to cut joe out of the conversation i did readed speech every single thing joe biden
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proposed right after ukraine, right. dealt with inflation and said right things, the right message for the president to give but has to follow through with action and every single one of his actions was spending more money. raising the minimum wage, for example when inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. if you give people more money but don't ask them to produce more goods, all of those steps going to be inflationary i saw nothing in the speech i thought as a conservative leaning thinking economist that would lead to lower prices so bigger government and lower options and was hoping to see the opposite. >> i hope you saw the piece increasing domestic manufacturing. this reliance on external supply chains, demand for products increasing domestic production, buy america, those are all things that in the long run are actually going to help deal with
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the ways in which our economy can thrifbthrive, dependent on american -- >> congresswoman, want to go back, it's like -- like godfather. pull you back in have you thought this through? >> i wouldn't do it if i hadn't thought it through i mean, i think this is a really important moment in this country, and i think the importance of bringing my experience and leadership back into the congress can make a real difference at a time that we're facing tremendous challenges, and by the way, i don't think equal time is -- >> it doesn't. you want 85% of the vote, the first time you won your seat i'd be scared if i were running against you. anyway, we'll see you again soon, congresswoman, and mick, i don't know what you're planning on doing now congresswoman, all the other
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democrats are retired and getting the hell out of dodge. 32, 33 you're going the opposite way. >> my dad served 34 years in the air force weekend we believe in going to the fire. >> okay. going in to the fire okay good out of the frying pan. thank you both. >> thank you it is just after 7:00 on the east coast, and you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today. another big lineup in the next two hours. the world's leading energy companies are gathering in texas. today for a major industry conference run by dan yergin dan is joining us live as oil prices spike this conference is very, very timely then heading to washington and talking sanctions with senator rick scott by the way, oil isn't the only commodity soaring. gold prices topping $2,000 an ounce earlier this morning
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n newmont's ceo our guest. and talking market expectations with former vice chair roger ferguson futures under pressure you'll see dow futures down by about 376. believe it or not, that's improvement. looking at futures down by more than 550 points earlier, in the last hour. s&p futures down by 48 points now. nasdaq off by 176 and oil prices overnight, wci touching above $130 a barrel. right now at $123.27 a barrel, still up by 6.5% this morning. >> and get to dom chu working at the pre-market movers, dom >> the real trade kicked off in europe and losses there outside very much so compared to what we see with the futures picture becky pointed out now. look at the exchanges here, a lot much deeper in the red than s&p or dow futures indicate here
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on the home shores the s&p 500 of europe down 1.5% now. dax in germany down 2.5% 1.5 for the cac and the ftse in italy well off its lows of the session. bo down 1%. seeing much like the future picture. see if it continues towards opening trading for regular session here in u.s. markets a place to keep an eye on's becky mentioned the gold price $1,191 exact price, $2,007.50 intraday high. by the way, puts you at these levels going all the way back to august of 2020 august 19, 2020. those golds prices certainly catching a bid as a safety trade continues to be focus for many traders. single stock side of things. watch what's happening
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shares of bed bath & beyond up 74% in trading due in large part, a lot of parts to the story, but in large part to this idea rc ventures has taken in nearly 10% of a stake in bed bath & beyond making them close to a top five, i believe a top five, shareholder in the company. that's important because rc stands for ryan cohen. yes, founder of chewy, invest tie taken him in a massive stake in bed bath & beyond and they want the company to explore sale, or sale of units like bye-bye baby unit. got the stock up 75% a lot of characters and drama unfolding in that particular trade, joe back to you. >> and you may question their strategy, too. they don't sell beds >> they sell -- i don't know
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bath stuff. >> they don't sell beds. changing -- bed bath & beyond. why would they go beyond beds and baths? >> they don't sell bathtubs either. >> i was going to say. >> dom, i respect, there are serious things going on in the world. can i just ask you about "march madness" for a second. which way are you leaning? who do you think is the top three teams in your view right now because it's coming? buffett on to talk about that? "march madness"? >> you can ask him. >> give me that million dollar -- >> watches every day >> go ahead ask. >> give me that million dollar, get everything right. >> guaranteed it last time you didn't send it in last year. >> no. i knew i couldn't do it. top three, dom given you time >> no. the reason why, this year so many gyrations and changes i can't give you the one seed i
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would put for every one of those brackets because things changed so much. i also feel a little more in-tune this year, ncaa. over the last couple of years, rough? right? trying to put a bead on it. >> one through six lost last weekend. a horrible weekend did much better this weekend. >> rutgers and seton hall, even they've been skittish every once in a while and big wins, then big losses. >> barely beat it out. >> so many top ten seeded. >> i know. any, on any given day. >> yeah. >> i had illinois last year. really good. came back yesterday. you see that, dom? >> i did not. >> over iowa. >> why we're seeded number four in the big ten conference now. >> you are really into this. i would hope so. >> ucla might be good, too nick cronyn now. >> always a kentucky guy i think kentucky always does pretty well. >> they're peaking at the right time i think, too, all right, dom chu. i think that helped the stock
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market, down 300 get our minds off nuclear armageddon for a couple seconds. >> thank you for bringing that back um. shares of uber this morning. company raising guidance saying the mobility business is bouncing back from omicron much faster than executives expected, and airport bookings surged in february you can see now that stock up by about 3.6% make that 4% climbing as we speak. s 3$34.01 meantime, economists trying to gauge the impact of russia's invasion of ukraine. steve liesman joins us with a cnbc rapid update. >> good morning, becky first pass measuring u.s. will grow more slowly with higher inflation europe's economy flirt near recession and rush plunge into a deep double-dip decline.
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u.s. growth accelerating 3.5% second quarter, from 1.9 still the forecast u.s. continues to recover from the omicron slowdown second quarter down from our february survey. second half outlook fell and full year gdp outlook dropping by one right now a modest 0.3 percentage points for now. forecasters cautioning, with oil prices surging, $123 a barrel when i last looked, estimate it's tilted towards lower growth, higher unflation especially if the u.s. and europe boycott russian oil jpmorgan writing defenses of a complete shutoff of russia's 4.3 million of oil exports to europe and the u.s. would be dramatic marking up we measure pc inoperation by 1.7 percentage points this quarter to 5.3 building in a low er decline
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second half of the year. europe, barclays reducing by nearly a percentage point. jpmorgan pencilling in zero this quarter and two investment banks both see crippling sanctions leading to double-dump it declines in russian gdp. drop by 15% in 2022. that is double the drop of the great financial crisis becky? >> hey, steve, i forget the metric used to be every 10 cents increase in gasoline at the pump or every $1 increase at the pump takes how much off gdp oil prices skyrocketing and prices at the pump will follow rapidly. >> yeah, but, becky, you've got to throw that metric out right? u.s. energy production is roughly in balance we make 11 million and change
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barrels a day. we produce that. we export 8 and import 8, depend ntd w dependend what you do with the product. used to be sending a lot of money abroad and take off gdp from the burgeoning trade deficit. a lot of that money staying home this time, because even though you have an argument, are we producing enough could produce more roughly producing about the amount that saudi arabia is producing's there is a kingdom the sides saudi arabia. >> goes to different pockets coming from consumers' pockets into somebody else's. >> exactly from producers to users and to company shareholders is really important. profits don't themselves show up in gdp it's the investment. we'll wait to see the count
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creeping up. at that count goes up, goes up in gdp not minimizing individual pain of regions and individual families paying more but the country as a whole has a very different metric on oil this time around. >> disconcerting, steve. the whole thing. told becky i had a dream about you last night so it's gotten to that point. >> no, you did not >> talking to steve what the implications would be, and it was -- feel like he's in that movie, in arizona dreaming about planes.
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oil prices reaching their highest point since 2008 over the weekend. last night you saw wti trade above $130 a barrel. this morning trading at $122.99. bring in john killduff, founding partner and a cnbc contributor a question we've asked this morning what it will mean for consumers. when you see prices spike, what will that mean at the pump >> it's going to be jarring for consumers when they hit the roads this morning, becky, and seeing the prices if they didn't already see them yesterday like i did when prices were
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$4.69 for regular in spots in northern new jersey, in a corridor where there's a lot of truck stops and things, they knock themselves over the head competing for lowest price, and the prices are unbelievable. diesel fuel, if you have a diesel pick-up truck or, you know, workman's van, $5-plus already and only going to keep going higher this is upsetting to people. when it costs you $100-plus to fill up your suv, that's when the "hows? start to go up and the grocery store, see those prices unsettling and will hit consumer confidence hard, in my view. >> usually higher prices mean more people will drill and you see smaller companies doing that is there a point majors will forget how disciplined we've said we're going to be got to go after some of these high prices?
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>> i think at some point they certainly will i mean, it's just would behoove them not to cash in. the problem you have, look, the industry got burned so badly in the height of the pandemic when oil prices went to minus 40. really a -- existential moment for a lot of companies and there were bankruptcy. look at the price curve. considerable what we call backwardization. no real point prices will sustain themselves as a matter of fact, for example, something on the wire a few moments ago before i came on i saw russians claim if they give up on crimea and independent zones fighting will stop if there's some kind of diplomatic climb down on this thing, oil prices upwards of $30 a barrel of air on them in fears what's happening at we go forward, if this thing continues and/or worsens sort of the problem oil companies have now they cannot count on this price
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environment lasting, as you look at things as they stand today. >> you say $30 of air, how do you get to that? $30 on the idea we could actually ban 4.3 million -- or 4.3 million barrels per day of russian exports from coming out? why you get to these levels? if that actually happens, is this a fair price, or where do you see prices headed if there isn't a resolution >> could well go higher without a full embargo of the russian oil especially if china's hand is forced. believe it or not, backing away from other commodity prices. if he forgo oil and fear of western sanctions because they can't operate with the rest of the world, when the major problem hits when i say $30 of air in it, sort of where we were before this crisis really blew up it is also when you look at the chart and just, it's gone hyperparabolic to the upside
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any other normal circumstance, a blow off top like back in '08. a warning sign this 123 is certainly a crazy number, but it's also not a number that any of the oil companies at this point are going to bank on sustaining itself for any meaningful period of time. >> john, i remember 2008, talking super spikes for oil goldman sachs calling for maybe $200 a barrel. going back 14 years ago i forget some of these things. what happened at the time? hit the financial crisis and it was the recession that brought down prices so rapidly why up so high and why did they come down so quickly >> it was the height of the financial crisis, becky. first time, probably the first time in years that we had hit full employment, economy getting red hot. there were issues with production in the market to a degree, and then, yeah then just like we're seeing now, got knocked off our block
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economically, and i will say, though oil's always been part of the problem in terms helping genre aught recessions always a hand mmaden to go along with it. president clinton tapped the -- whenever a spike in oil prices recession follows. >> yikes john, thank you, but that gives us something to think about. good to see you this morning. >> thank you, becky. same here. >> down two and change 264 -- not long ale. coming up, a live report from ukraine on efforts to open humanitarian corridors and later, on the move, precious metals, above 2,000 earlier. that's in a little. "squawk box," coming right back.
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fighting to flee however, reports from the ground say shelling and rocket fire continue in those areas a the this point nbc's molly hunter joins us now from lviv in the western part of ukraine. molly, on the surface sounded like a good offer until we started hearing details. make you think they didn't take it seriously at all. >> reporter: yeah, becky exactly right. we woke up this morning to an announcement of essentially a unilateral cease-fire. russian ministry of defense announcing providing humanitarian corridors, the problem they led directly to russia and belarus and no ukrainian civilian civilian will want to go to that territory now. we heard a response from the ukrainian government the vice prime minister saying, no way unacceptable our people are not going to go at this our ukrainians countered that offer, as you say, whether or not it was serious. it doesn't appear to be so ukrainians countered that with
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proposed corridors to the west of the country where i am focused heavily on mariupol, a city on the black sea, east of country, bombarded by the russian military the past weeks. trying to get out, 200,000, citizens living without heat, water and electricity. completely unlivable the cease-fire we saw a few hours saturday and sunday morning in mariupol and shelled on, fell down immediately because of russia's shelling icrc is on the ground. the neutral body trying to facilitate, broker the feesfire between the two parties and really say the agreements were not set in stone didn't agree exactly where swilling could depart from didn't have a very specific humanitarian quarter agreed to and didn't necessarily agree on details what could come in what kind of humanitarian aid to co-into those cities
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we're waiting to hear from russians, from the icrc, from the ukrainians whether the russians accepted their new proposals and also expecting, becky and joe, some peace talks later today. just learned at 4:00 p.m. between the russians and ukrainians apparently the delegation of the previous two rounds will stay the same. >> appreciate the updates, molly. continue to check in especially with the latest news about potential for peace talks. again, that's molly hunter from nbc. coming up, senator rick scott. on call this weekend with the ukrainian president zelenskyy. highlights of that call and much more that's straight ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. e alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs)
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for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. futures bouncing off lows of the morning. you can see right now we are down 257 quite a bit better than when down more than 500 take a look at the european market also moving off their lows. haven't talk units in a while. all russia and china, such a big part of the equation, besides discussing the turmoil, resulting from russia's invasion of ukraine, chinese lawmakers are going to release the country's latest economic goals, and spending plans, eunice yoon
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j joins us with more favorite place now to invest, china. >> hmm nap would make the leadership here very happy and they would agree, because they would say that the economic forecasts are quite rosy for this year. in terms of russia and ukraine, the chinese foreign minister would speak on the sidelines of a big parliamentary powwow going on here in beijing, and he said beijing would continue to support mediation efforts between ukraine and russia while maintaining what he described as china's rock salolid relationsh with moscow. the lawmakers are here to listen to various policymakers and leadership, leaders, including the premier who over the weekend had laid out the country's key economic targets they say that the priority is stability for the year, and for economic growth, it's come in at
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about 5.5% low are than last year, but a little on the high end about 3%for inflation. so that's the same as last year. a budget deficit at 2.8% of gdp. so that's lower than last year's figure of 3.2% so the premier said it's going to take a lot of what he described as arduous efforts to reach those goals. if you look at just the figure of this fiscal deficit number, it looks as though it wouldn't necessarily reflect that however, when you take a look at the whole fiscal spending will be increased by about 316 billion dollars, and that's the, saying through profits of state firms, extra savings the money spent will be spent on tax cuts for smes, new development, new roads, railway projects rosy about the outlook fnow for investment in infrastructure
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incentive restructure. most believe the property sector relaxed. premier stressed a need to invest for the long haul to ensure china's security. so on energy security, beijing removed the hard targets for energy consumption said they needed the flexibility for food, imperative that grain output stays above 650 million metric tons and on defense, china increased its military budget by 7.1% to $230 billion this is the fastest rise since 2019, and, joe, there was no change in policy towards tech regulation no change on the covid-19 protocols. they have been roiling the global supply chain. the premier said all meant to set the stage for a big policy meeting, again, another big meeting, later in the year, in the fall when president xi
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jinping is expected to take an unprecedented third term. >> any mention of the "r" word russia all fine and good, but it's -- i think it's an interesting dynamic, eunice. because i think russia would kill to stay close to china, and suddenly we're cozying up to china, so they're like the bell of the ball all of a sudden, and even in our view, i guess they're not anywhere close to the worst actor in the neighborhood anymore are they >> reporter: well, it's interesting that you mention the "r" word, because in the premier's speech, he didn't mention russia specifically or the ukraine situation. however, the foreign minister then was asked specifically about these issues russia as well as taiwan, and ukraine. so he did, again, though, repeat
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what china's been saying over and over, and that is that they support the idea of mediation, but then again not necessarily for them to go in and actively mediate, as had seemed to have been suggested earlier on. >> all right eunice, thank you. lots to consider still to come, ceo of the world's largest gold producer joining us to talk soaring commodity prices plus the ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy speaking to members of the u.s. congress over the weekend to ask for more assistance and rick scott, senator, was on that call. going to talk to him pull all of this, coming from the president of ukraine stay tuned you're watching "squawk on the street." this is cnbc.
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welcome back to "squawk on the street," everybody futures this morning under pressure, but off the lows we've seen earlier today since the show began this morning, seen the dow futures down by 550 points right now down just by 220 points s&p futures off close to 25. nasdaq down by about 88. then look at gold. futures there soaring. looked at $2,000 an ounce earlier this morning now trading at $1,986 an ounce our next guest, newmont money
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tom palmer, the world's largest gold producer. just over the last week up by more than 8.7% tom, thank you for being with us this morning good to see you. >> good morning, becky thank you for having us. >> so we know that there is chaos in the world, and that traditionally is a time you see gold prices soar but now talking about gold at highest levels ever seen with exception maybe ten days back in august of 2020. what's happening here, and does this surprise you to see how rapidly gold prices have gone up >> unfortunately, becky, it doesn't surprise us, and if i could just take a moment to express our sadness at the tragic and unnecessary loss of life and the heartbreaking displacement of the ukrainian people, and that event is, that conflict, is really leading to this peaking of pricing. unfortunately, it's not a surprise gold does trade well when we see
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some geopolitical instability, and certainly we expect to see it at this level for some time to come. gold has been trading, the last couple of years in a pretty tight band around that $1,800 mark you see on the chart. lots of reasons to support there and was we see the conflict unfold, lots of reason to support current levels and even going higher it's quite a new dynamic for us. >> when oil prices go up, oil drillers tend to drill more. are you able to mine more gold when gold prices go up >> no. we don't run our business that way. we are a multidecade business. we've got very long mines and continue to run with discipline. actually run our business -- becky, i grew up in the mining industry, and i've seen the commodity price topple many times over we run the business with discipline through a cycle and
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gold at $1,200, set our goals. set our plans. that generate free cash flow and every $100 in gold price we generate $400 million in free cash flow every year current process at $3.2 million. we maintain that discipline and don't look to change our plan because we see short to medium-term volatility. >> tom, we talk all the time about cryptocurrency at this point and it's been called "the new gold." does that make you mad when crypto is called the new gold? >> makes me mad. it's very different. it's a very different investment gold's been a store of value for literally millennium an $11 trillion market, freely tradeable, marketed and a very different investment it's a store of value for folks. not only gold. if you put your money into a company like newmont, you also get exposure to a company that
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generates free cash flow off gold delivers returns dividends, yielding at 3%. only gold mining company in the s&p 500 and the top 10% of dividend pays. i would put my money into gold any day over cryptocurrency, becky. >> tom, what was the number you just quoted again? how much of a profit you turned based on how much higher gold prices go? >> for aefr $100 increase in gold price above our $1,200 we generate $400 million of free cash flow every year that's $3.2 billion of $2,000 gold every year. >> what's happened to your costs, in terms of labor, mining equipment? are you dealing with the same inflation the rest of the world seems to be hitting? >> we certainly are. 50% of cost base is labor. another 30% materials and about 15% is energy oil mainly we see, each year, around about
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a 2% inflation in our cost base. this year certainly been signaling it through the course of last year, got up into the market late last year an additional 5% on top of that certainly seeing it across the board. in inflation of cost price but still generating good returns through the price cycle. >> tom good to see you this morning. >> thanks for your time, becky. >> tom palmer, again, ceo of newmont mining. and coming up, the world's biggest energy conference kicking off in houston we'll go live to sara for an update from c nbcrahal solomon and on the call this weekend rick scott, senator, on the line with ukraine's president zelenskyy. more about that call and what he feels our response should be pr
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as oil and gas so perfect time to have one of the world's biggest energy conferences happening in houston of all places. brian sullivan is there and joins us now already key developments what are they over the past few days >> reporter: yeah. take your pick, joe, and good morning, by the way, here at the conference, just getting started. a big couple of days i think a month ago planned to kwum come here. the idea roaring 22s how do we manage demand and supply then putin's war occurred. now a completely overarching theme here i think that was well put by dan yergin over the weekend, which is are we on the verge of a 1970s-like oil gas and economic crisis this event threw gasoline on the
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fire three gasoline spikes like this in the last 50 years 1973 that was followed by recession 1979 had a recession in early '80s. 1990 brief briefer session there and of course 2008. 2008 had a lot other contacter but also highest-ever oil price spike. so there's a lot of concern right now, guys, about what this oil price spike means. we know that the world can probably absorb it in the short term the question now becomes, how long are these prices, not just oil, which we know goes into pretty much everything, but, of course, gasoline getting shot to $6, $6.50 a gallon in places like california and hawaii it's the length of time there. this conference, hoping saudi energy minister would be here. decided to cancel kind of last minute secretary will be here a lot of talk about banning
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russian oil imports. we don't import a lot of oil in the united states. by the way, there are still eight ships either on their way or at anchorage filled with russian oil headed for the u.s., but nato nations they account for about 50% of russia's oil sales when you look to nato taking action against russia, there is real concern that you might shoot yourself in the economic foot, so to speak. so a lot of questions here a lot of themes. exploring a great lineup over next couple of days. a bunch of ceos. occidental and more, representatives, no doubt more we will grab a big couple of days here in houston. >> who could step up saudis, i guess. is the united states capable of stupi ing stepping up, increasing production >> i think takes time don't just dig in the ground and get out more oil it's a slow process. those we spoke to on and off the
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record want the biden administration to bless them say it is okay to pump more oil giving cover with shareholders preaching to them, return your money. not going bankrupt as all of these bankruptcy going to actually make money this time. i think they're kind of looking for that macroblessing as well by the way, joe, over the weekend, reports the u.s. has been in caracas van enezuela could pump more. and ironically, some of the great hopes in adding supply now fall with iran and venezuela not exactly two regimes we cozy up to. >> were you in north carolina on saturday >> two regimes that we don't cozy up to. yes. i was at -- i was at the duke
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game, justin thomas -- >> yes >> my buddy went to duke season tickets he said come on down so -- how could i not? i saw justin thomas pointing at me. they didn't win, but -- >> painful for duke. yeah painful. >> i don't know. pointing me out on twitter, j.t. got to have a cutoff. >> hat on backwards. saw that either that or photo shopped or some other doppelganger. a handsome doppelganger. >> last part rhtig thank you. >> okay. fine. up next, senator rick scott on the ukraine invasion. his thoughts on china and much more we're coming right back. ntly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire i didn't know my genetic report could tell me i was prone to harmful blood clots. i travel a ton, so this info was kind of life changing. maybe even lifesaving.
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ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy continues to ask for help to once again stop the cease-fire, evacuate civilians to safety. the ukrainian president spoke to u.s. members of congress over rts weekend telling them the war-torn country desperately needs more assistance. joining us, senator rick scott, took part on the call with the ukrainian president. senator, are we going to do a stand-alone aid package, or -- who's trying to tuck it in to some other ominous bill? what's the current status of that >> unfortunately, i don't know why we didn't do it last week. i mean, we know that they need
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aid. know what we're going to do. schumer is going to try to hold this omnibus hostage by putting the aid for ukraine in there i mean, i think every american has to wake up every day and say, i am absolutely appalled at what putin's doing, and we say, what can every american do every american can say, don't buy any russian or belarus products they can, every american company can say they're going to shut down all operations in belarus and russia belarus is part of it. every american should say i expect the biden administration to stop buying russian oil i expect that we are going to figure out every -- every -- way we can sanctions belarus and russia but we've got to get zelenskyy and the ukrainian people every bit of aid, military aid, we can so they can defend themselves. it your heart goes out for what going on and you can't imagine the honor of what they're doing to defend democracy. and they might be the first step we don't know how far putin's
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going to go. then we've got to get oligarchs, energy dependent for our security and for security of our allies this is all hands on deck every day until putin is pushed way back into russia and hopefully without a power. >> senator, you see these shots. i'm looking at a shot in one of the newspaper in irpin and ukraine. looks worse than a national disaster worse than the tsunami in thailand or worse than the most devastating hurricane and it was intentional. so any -- any normal person wishes we could -- have the moral turpitude to do it, but we can't, because of the nuclear cloud hanging over our head. it makes it very difficult i'm wondering. you want to do stronger things
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what should the biden administration do? and if we supply -- we could supply planes to nato. those nato planes -- if nato uses those planes in, over ukraine, that's, then, nato's dragged into a shooting war and it could be world war iii. almost like our hands are tied to do what we really should be doing, and for humanity. >> well, first off, here's what's -- right now ukrainian people are standing up the positive we need to provide the ukrainian people with every resource, including planes so then we shouldn't -- we should not say we're not going to do something. say, look, everything's on the table. we're going to figure this out every day. whenever you're going through something like this, you say what can i do this moment? whether it's dealing with a hurricane or dealing with a war. what can we be doing this moment give the ukrainians the planes we can give them they're willing to fight for
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their own freedom. they're not asking american troops to come in there and fight for them they're willing to fight for their own freedom. give them the planes, the ammunition, anti-tank missiles, the air missiles give them everything they can to defend themselves. and they will defend themselves. and when that happens, i think, weeb got to make sure putin goes to prison for war crimes killing innocent little children think about our own families and what would we want if this was happening in our country we would want everyone in the entire world to show up and help us. >> senator, putin bloviating even the sanctions are an act of war, and we've got other people that, you know, been in his presence years ago saying that he seems like he's lost something or even more unstable than before. how do you know how far to push it to someone with, you know, literally, with his finger on the button who may be totally unstable
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>> well, what you hope is the entire russian apparatus is not completely unstable. you hope the military's not completely unstable. >> you hope. yeah, for sure >> but -- okay here's the options say, oh, somebody has a nuclear weapon give them everything, just go home we can't do that i mean, we're -- where's the line okay is the line going to be poland >> can't go all-in and can't go home that is the question do you think the biden administration has been navigating so far, do you want him to be tougher, or what actual things would you do differently? >> well, unfortunately, biden didn't do the right things to deter putin we can all complain about that right now, stop taking russian oil. this idea we'll do business with maduro who killing his own
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citizens kill all jews and demolish israel we're going to become partners why become dependent as an individual, don't be dependent, a family, don't be dependant, as a country, don't be dependent, got to get oil and gas going again in this country to help ourselves and help our allies every day we wait to do that is continuing to put us in awkward positions. china is just -- what do you think china's doing? sitting there saying, is america, democracies around the world, willing to stand up if not, boy, taiwan's gone where do we stop >> you tell me with -- what should our approach now be with china? we made the point earlier that -- suddenly by comparison they're not the worst actor in the neighborhood at this point >> very good point. >> yeah. at this point. do we try to -- appeal to china
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and say, all right put some of these other issues on the back burner you need to -- if you have any sway at all with vladimir putin, you need to use the sway with vladimir putin, and need to for their own self-interesting for a global trade and the global economy. we don't want this to -- to sweep across all of europe this -- this instability. >> well, first off, i mean, china and russia, you know, they are -- they decided. we didn't. they decided to be our adversaries. i think with taiwan we have to be very clear. we will defend taiwan. number one i have a bill for that number two, give them all resources they need. now, think about how much money we're going to spend to help ukraine? if we had done this before we have a $10 billion package. give them $10 billion worth of aid before, what's the chance
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putin would have gone in he would say, i can't win that war. same with taiwan do did now every american has to say, why put ourselves in position to be dependent on china why do that? we can't rely on them for anything for pharmaceuticals, for anything we've got to figure how to get our economy, our manufacturing going in this country and with our allies stop buying -- every opportunity you can, do american do with allies we have to figure this out so we're not dependent on them. it's the position we're in now people dependent on russian oil. you could see this coming. why shut down our oil and gas production all right, and our allies dependent on russia? this makes no sense. think about this logically and think long term. >> all right we have been, senator. thinking about a lot of these things it's tough to come up with easy answers but appreciate you being
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on this morning, senator and good luck. good luck to us all. thanks. >> yeah. it is just past 8:00 a.m. right here on the east coast and you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc live from the nasdaq on market square i'm becky quick along side joe kernen, andrew is off today. futures this hour under pressure all morning long dow futures off just over 300 points s&p futures down by 36 nasdaq down by 122 coming up, governor phil murphy of the state of new jersey his state lifting mask requirements for schools starting today an update on the covid front and much more. later, oil prices soaring yet again. s&p global vice chair dan yergin our guest. right now we want to get over to mike santoli with more onthis morning's market sell-off. mike, good morning. >> good morning, becky
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yeah keep testing these same leveling last unique overnight low in s&p 500, s&p index fund roughly where we got to overnight. can't over think this. obviously, 1% or 2% moves intraday, is oil making a new high, what's the latest tone headlines out of ukraine not break or break for overall market longer term that's the fixation now. clearly not able to get in any escape off that area, kind of 4,200. this is 420 on the s&p etf look at within the market where the pain has and hasn't been this is a measure. equal wait of russell 1000 the 1,000 biggest stocks more on let. weight them equally. not much damage. this white line. within 5%, 6% of record highs you have s&p 500 more like a 9% 10shgs , 10% off highs. and mega stocks lower yields not
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helping in that area bulls and bears pointing to the exact thing saying supports their case bulls, market's resilient bending not breaking whereas bears say a lot more down side, haven't had a reckoning. look at volatility index persistent above 30 some say could be higher, towards 40, in a real crescendo of panic uptrend probably a lot going on vix futures and short-term money market. looking for signs of stress and anxiety about liquidity conditions and a rush for dollars all that stuff this is one representation of it eventually this is going to make a spike on the chart and going to be a pretty good signal that the market's finding its footing. not there yet. by the way, this implies one out of three days s&p 500 will go up or down 2% the statistical meaning of a vix around 32, 33. >> wow mike, thank you. >> yeah. get to washington, d.c. right now with the latest on the
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ukraine invasion kayla tausche joins us good morning. >> reporter: good morning, becky. violence erupting across ukraine as civilians try to leave despite cease-fire supposed to allow safe passage shellings in the port city of mariupol halting evacuations two days with hundreds of thousands prevented from escaping. in irpin north of kyiv a family killed trying to leave u.s. officials say they see credible reports of intentional attacks on civilians which would be a war crime pressure now on western leaders to ban russian oil is growing with coordinated action possible as soon as this week according to a uk official u.s. said it would allow vladimir putin to sell less oil at higher prices to countries like china, now appears there's support for such a move. >> we are now in very active discussions with our european partners about banning the import of russian oil to our countries while, of course, at the same time maintaining a
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steady global supply of oil. we are looking, again, as we speak, in coordination with allies and partners as think prospect of banning oil impart. >> reporter: former deputy energy minister telling me russia is eyeing a third nuclear site in the south of ukraine to capture and use as leverage after already taking the chernobyl site and the zaporizhzhia site last unique. talks between russia and ukraine set to begin in about an hour's time so far russia has not delivered on anything i greeagreed to in e prior rounds becky? >> wonder about the resolve of united states and allies in terms of saying "no" to oil coming out of russia, when you watch oil prices spike like we did overnight.
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north of $130 a barrel and know that means prices will head north of $5 a gallon at the pump what have you heard, if anything, on that front? >> reporter: women, certainly it's a very tough political reality, becky, but one of the reasons why the administration and other western countries did not move to ban russian oil earlier on in this process is because they were worried about those price spikes because the market is already going in that direction on its own, even before those import bans were even put in place, that actually might help the administration come to terms with making a decision like this, because prices are already high at the pump, even before making a move like that, and so the worst-case scenario they feared might already be afoot. >> interesting point thank you, kayla tausche. coming up, new jersey governor phil murphy joins us to talk dropping mask mandates and returning to normalcy. that's next. plus, much more on the market this morning. futures right now yocan u see
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we've been all over the place. 550 at one point on lows just down 200 -- less than 210 now back down, 300, now 283. treasury yields fallen after being briefly above 2% on the ten year back down to 1.77 energy, markets seemed to recover a little after oil came down from some of the highest levels we've seen. now at 120 as high as 130 and then the airlines, figure, not great. double whammy. on global travel. i don't -- anyone feel like -- >> going to europe nope. >> no. not really joy behar postponed her trip again. you can see there, down. two and change, for the most part 2% or more for the airlines stocks. today in the state of new
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jersey, masks become optional for students and staff and majority of schools and day-care centers. just over two years since new jersey announced its first known positive covid-19 case and joining us now is new jersey governor phil murphy governor, i believe it was march 4th, two years ago, we saw our first case what a long two years it's been. >> boy, i'll say exactly march 4th, and -- here we are two-plus years later and thank god in a dramatically differ and better place, and let's hope it stays that way. >> talk a little about the mask mandates coming down in schools. this is something that you and the governors of several other states in the region went ahead with before the cdc issued guidance what was it you saw that made you think this is the time to take down mask requirements? >> yeah. a couple of things, becky. first of all, new jersey and new york city, connecticut, we were hit hardest earliest in all waves of this pandemic and omicron was no exception
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the difference with omicron is that it shot straight up, and then came straight down. and unlike the other waves which were sort of long, undulating ups and long, painful downs, which means if you're hit first, as we were, we were in a meaningfully if not dramatically different place than the average american state so the cdc has a much more complex challenge. they've got to put rules of the road out for all american states, and the fact of the matter is, we were in a meaningfully different place, which is why we took the step that we did. >> it does feel like things are much better in this area especially from where we were just before christmastime. but because you and the other governors didn't point to hard case numbers or hard situations where the masks should come down or where they should come up, because a timeline basis, there have been a lot of people cynically looking at this saying it's for politics, because so
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unpopular. the question becomes, are we done with mask mandates forever? is there a scenario that you would reinstitute those mask mandates >> first on the politics i'm living proof we put very unpopular mandates in place last year, and i had an election last year i think we've proven throughout the past couple of years that politics are not part of this. can i say that they're done forever? i don't think anybody can say that for sure. i certainly hope that we're done forever, but every time you think you've got this virus figured out, it humbles you. it take as turn you don't expect, and about eight of ten of those turns are negative, but it feels very much like we are on that road from pandemic to endemic. that we'll be able to live with this in a normal way, responsibly, like we do with the flu. it very much feels like that's where we're headed right now and let's hope it stays that way. >> what's the state's economy
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look like? nationally unemployment below 4% pretty good tax receipts coming in, really, ithink that's the case in the state of new jersey as well? >> yeah. our economy, not going to -- our economy is strong. our unemployment rate is still a little bit behind the national rate, and i think we're in that cluster of states that were very tough on public health measures, but we had achieved lowest in our state's history just before the pandemic so i'm optimistic we'll get there again. people have moved into new jersey businesses have moved in there's a confidence getting back in folks. listen, you can't make light of the price we'll pay, whether it's loss of life, jobs, small businesses, but it sure feels like we are on the ascent and let's hope it stays that way. >> governor, the question becomes what do we do with all the federal money given for covid relief as of october last year, spent $2 billion of the $6 billion
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that have come our way in past years like we did after 2008 we needed it, needed additional funds in the years that came afterwards, because the economy didn't recover as quickly. that's not the case here what are we going to do with the rest of that money >> yeah. new jersey's had an unfortunate history over the decades, both sides of the aisle, by the way, of spending one time injections of capital like a drunken sailor usually to plug budget holes that's not what we're going to do we're going to spend this responsibly and also not going to set programs up that two or three years from now, the state h was left holding the bag what had been a federal mandate i'm presenting our budget tomorrow you'll see elements of that. we're going to be able to make historic investments as some of which we've already signaled such nas our health care systems, to pick an obvious one. but both spend it responsibly and not in a way the state ends
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up holding the bag down the road. >> governor what about private institutions colleges still with mask mandates will you urge them to make masks optional almost as if you've gotten to the point you're not sure that we need them, but -- do you feel that they're a positive for people that are trying to go to school for kids that are -- if they're not, i would think you could urge them to get rid of the mandates at this point i mean, setill in a cya mode isn't it why have a mask mandate with rates so low >> we haven't had a mask mandate at higher institutions they have been largely if not entirely self-imposed. i think we're at a place you can take them off. >> would you urge the private institutions to drop the mandates, then because they're not dropping them they're -- they're stubbornly keeping them.
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>> yeah. depends. depends. some of them are again, it's not a mandate from me or from the feds. that's a decision they've made i think, listen, voting with our feet made the statement that on pre-k through 12 including day care we think you can responsibly take them off today you'll see us, joe, make a move on state offices where we still have a mandate in place. you can expect it to be lifted sometime fairly soon going from pandemic to endemic i think we can look a lot more normal sooner than later >> governor, you recently issued a proclamation that the state needs to make sure it's no doing business with russian companies, because of the situation in ukraine what business does the state do with any russian entities? >> well, thankfully very little. we're checking whether or not we have any investments at all in our pension funds. i suspect if anything it's d
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dominimous making sure we have no other engagements with russia. this is a war of choice from a warmongering thug, and we're going to do everything we can to make a statement that -- not in new jersey we have among the largest ukrainian populations of any american state, and we wear that as a badge of honor and we're going to stand tall with our ukrainian brothers and sisters in any way we can. >> a lot of luke oil retail gas stations in the state of new jersey. >> i think 33. trying to figure out what to do with them as well. they happen to be franchised by local new jersey interests in most cases but that's a good example of something, you know what not in new jersey. we got to -- we're going to have to figure that out. >> in this time of inflation on gas prices and just about everything else, it is leading to concerns with consumers all
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across the country what they'll be able to do in terms of balancing their budget what do you tell people and what does it mean for the state coffers as you see inflation really start to climb? >> for individuals, no question, there's pain here. there was already high levels of gas prices before this war, and they've only gotten higher as i mentioned, i'm going to present our budget tomorrow, and the going to be drenched with affordability steps that we're taking, whether directly at gas or more broadly. we're going to do everything we can to try to ease the pain, because it's real. inflation is real. i think those of us who thought it would be transitory and demin imous, it's real it's rear. not the earl '80s but here for 2022 and we're going to do everything to push back. >> what can they do to keep oil and gas prices down?
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what possible control can you have over that >> not a lot, unfortunately. in fact, we have a gas tax set every august this past august went down over 8 cents. subject to a formula i'd like to see that continue to go down. i think -- i've said at the federal level, i like the idea of a gas tax holiday, at least for a period of time i assume we've got strategic reserves that we and other western allies could release that would be another step, i would think that would help here, but we will -- no question what we're facing, and we'll do everything we can. in our case, probably indirectly as opposed to a whole lot we can do direct. >> talk from the federal government, speaking about it all morning, about banning the imports of russian oil into this country, and i know -- at least i suspect. i don't think we import any in new jersey, but do you in mo
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massachusetts. importing from russian companies in california. you know, new jersey has so many things coming through, like the colonial pipeline, all kinds of shipping areas, alls these areas where oil is stored. what would this change mean, if anything, for this state what would it means in terms of trying to re-route the global supply of energy at this point >> yeah. i don't think it has a big impact on new jersey, but it would have some impact, but at this point with russia given what putin is doing in ukraine, we're all going to have to swallow hard and take it this is completely unlawful. this guy is a complete and utter thug he runs -- he's a warmonger. if we have to take pain to break this guy that what it's going to take, because that's what we need to do. >> governor murphy, thank you for joining us this morning. >> thank you for having me, becky. coming up, much more on the
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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone futures this morning under pressure, but these are about the best leveling seen of the morning. gas futures down by 204 points s&p off by 22. nasdaq down by 73. gold prices earlier, trading above $2,000 an ounce. first time seen that since august of 2020 right now up by about $10. $1,976 an ounce. netflix pulling its service in russia. streaming announced it yesterday afternoon. netflix has just under 1 million subscribers there and disney, warner brothers, sony, paramount and universal will all hold film debuts in russia and tiktok suspending uploads and live streaming in russia after the country implementing a law threatening prison time for anyone publishing what authorities consider to be false
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information about the invasion of ukraine and on the financial front visa, mastercard, american express and paypal all say they've suspended operations in russia stocks you can see down a little anywhere from 1% to 2.5%. >> and over the weekend, something you might not expect stemming from the crisis in eastern europe elon musk endorsing more nuclear power. tesla ceo sending out a series of tweets last night he said hopefully extremely obvious, europe should restore nuclear power stations and increase power output of existing ones. critical to national and international security and those mistakenly think it's a radiation risk, what's the worst location, i will travel there and eat on local tv from there did it in japan shortly after fukushima radiation, which is much, much lower than people
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believe. a few minutes later tweeted vastly better for global warming although we need to drill, drill, drill although i thought -- >> lastmperative for the united states to start drilling. >> you have a grid even an electric car, a power grid power to the grid. do we have -- benefit sighing future with germany. the road we want to go down, then that's what we can do, but a pretty good snapshot into what the, what the green new deal could do for us. >> national security that is kind of the buzzword >> when you start worrying about dieing in a couple hundred years versus tomorrow, kind of -- >> answer to your question. when we come back, warren buffett making a big bet on occidental petroleum
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we bring you all the details plus speaking with roger ferguson on the inflation impact of spiking energy prices and a programming note for you don't miss the premiere of the new primetime series "no retreat business boot camp" tomorrow night at 10:00 p.m. eastern time right here on krcnbc "squawk box" will be right back. growing up in a little red house, on the edge of a forest in norway, there were three things my family encouraged: kindness, honesty and hard work. over time, i've come to add a fourth: be curious. be curious about the world around us, and then go. go with an open heart, and you will find inspiration anew. viking. exploring the world in comfort.
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we are just getting news from retailer kohl's courtney reagan has more on what's happening. >> spoke with the ceo, kohl's coming out with details for long-term forecast ahead of investors day beginning in about 30 minutes this is, of course, month are than a year after activists involvement following a recent buyout bid for around $64 a share. the department store turned down saying, look, undervalues the company. kohl's new long-term financial framework includes low single digit percent sales growth, 7% to 8% operating margin mid to high single digits earnings growth and operating cash flow more than $5.5 billion and approximately $2.5 billion of free cash flow during 2022 to 2024 kohl's plans to hit targets growing sephora into a $2 billion business expanding to 850 locations in kohl's stores acquiring millions of new customers with this amazon returns program and newly
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announcing opening 100 or more small format kohl's stores over the next four years growing digital business from 8 billion to 6 billion today, and pick-up and returns at the store and checkout spoke with the ceo who calls the forecast realistic saying, we have a lot of confidence and a strong growth plan, adding kohl's restructured the business to really get profitability working more effectively with lots of changes over the last couple years as pertains to the impact kohl's may see as gas surprises spike, she acknowledged uncertainty, "we can manage the business effectively during volatility and uncertainty. a key advantage kohl's has, they stand for value. calling out iconic brands, nike, tommy hilfiger and also brands with entry-level pricing watching shares closely about
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the embattled store. many people have different opinions how the store can be best run. >> $64 buyout offer above $58 and change where stock's trading now. what's the scuttle on the street about that >> exactly kohl's said, look, board evaluated the deals. believe it undervalues the company. part of that reasoning is going to be further detailed here today. we'll see if investors buy it. i asked the ceo does she have the confidence of investors? seems to think she does with her plan and board, reminds us recently refreshed activists involved about a year now, and they did good movement on the board not completely what they wanted but some the stock price you point out below the $64 per share bid but elevated from where the bids came in before. >> watching. a lot more to come today in fact, programming note. don't miss first on cnbc interview with ceo of kohl's
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later today on "closing bell." up next, oil authority dan yergin on the soaring energy prices we're seeing and what needs to happen. put that in resource. another check on araba gas prices up 3%, spiking on the right-hand side of that chart. and another key commodity. copper hit a high. backing its cme contract inception's in 1988. all that andmore on "squawk box," on cnbc. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi.
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week makes last week at this time talking how warren buffett couldn't find anything he wanted to buy when it came to stocks warning that would change boy, did it. just last week, berkshire hathaway spent more than $4.5 billion to buy 92.1 million shares of occidental purchased it in one week, a decision made after the previous weekend after reading the company's earnings call from friday february 25th exclusively
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tells cnbc, i read every word and said this is exactly what i would be doing running the company the right way, buffett said, referring to occidental's president and ceo boughtmond and bought all we could, he added. called on her cell phone to tell her about the stake he bought. bought the stake as objection de -- occidental shares spiked 17% on friday alone. of course, oil prices rising sharply during that time, too, following russia's invasion of ukraine and occidental accounts for about 1% of the world's oil output berkshire required to disclose the sale, and disclosed position because owns others, technically putting berkshire stock at 17% carl icahn was selling
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icahn exited a once abrupt 10% stake in occidental. two representatives on the board resigning and, joe, selling the same five days buffett was buying's filed bone on friday. one saying, gone above 10% the other fallen below -- icahn, below 5%. >> billionaires arguing again. i like warren's chances with occidental better than herbal life in the last. >> i have to agree with that. >> and carl, basically got better of them there, i guess. >> of -- ackman? on the stock performance i should point out, icahn apparently made about $1 billion on the occidental stake bought according to the "wall street journal." >> why make $3 billion when you can make a billion right? recapping big news this morning. spike in oil prices in global market reaction fueled by the
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war in ukraine wti and brent crude breaking $100 a barrel last night joining us, vice chairman at annual week by s&p global conference, which has been called -- the davos of energy. is that a good thing, dan? anyway -- no scrap that thanks for joining us. >> we recall -- we would call it -- >> i see charles schwab for the entire reason we're in green health right now and for the ukraine intervention i don't know if i want to sell -- guess i won't be going in the spring. dan -- dan, where's oil going and what's it worth? >> well, i think what you can see is oil is going to continue to go up, and tens and tens of dollars the way it's going now, because the supply of russian oil, which was supposed to not
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be sanctioned and to avoid this kind of disruption, de facto sanction, u.s. considering, you talked about embargoing russian oil and it's all logistics for barrels of oil and going to drive price of oil up, and it's added to it, that it's in a crisis that involves two nuclear powers one of whom is actually brandished his nuclear weapons in the course of the last two weeks. and that's vladimir putin. >> right never thought -- nothing surprises me anymore dan, let me ask you, did we go from being energy independent two years ago to being energy dependent again? and is that true and how diding about the uniteds >> well, we went through a little bit -- got up to energy independence
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on that basis went down. i think we're back up. this year oil production in the u.s. will rise by about a million barrels a day and the other miraculous thing that happened is we only got an lng industry started in 2016 in 2022 the largest lng exporter in the world and half of the lng exports going to europe right now come from the united states, which is under writing european security and keeping them in stronger position than otherwise would be the case. by the way, one of the reasons vladimir putin hates shale, because we compete with him. >> as you have watched capital dry up for companies that look for fossil fuels and produce fossil fuels, because of esg pressure or pressure from the government, pressure from so many different places what has been your take on that and do you see things changing
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have we hit a point in time where, where that might, the pendulum might swing back, or are we already going down that road as a point of no return >> i think you see it eroding somewhat when you see what happened to the energy stocks. turns out investors actually want returns as well as the -- the virtue that comes from esg, and they see those returns there, and i think that's something that's going to be a strong theme here is -- we planned it around kind of the energy transition questions, but energy security is front and center the amnesia that the united states has had about energy security after we became energy independent has been shocked by the invasion of, shocked out of existence at least for now by the russian invasion, and establishing how important these flows of energy are to a world
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economy, to stability. you know, ultimately world peace. >> and nuclear i guess, maybe the biggest beneficiary of this new way of thinking. is it not? and then how long -- does it delay the transition to renewables and for how long? >> some people believe nuclear has to be part of the transitions. you don't do it with wind and solar because they're it intermittent not available at all times you need base load electricity now people are looking at small nuclear reactors manufactured in plants and, therefore, would be lower cost, and, you know, there are 62 -- yeah 62 research companies and research institutes working on advanced nuclear power so i think -- you get the feeling it's back. i talked last week to two ceo preparing for this week and both
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mentioned small nuclear. they wouldn't have done that two, three years ago. >> what should policymakers in the united states be doing near term and long term what's the biden administration do right away for this emean, ftr is not a panacea and what long term, what should we do as a country? >> well, right now what they should be doing is talking intensively and collaborating with the oil industry on a daily basis to understand what's happening in the markets, where the supplying are, how to manage them this is what the u.s. government has done going back to the korean war when you get in a crisis you collaborate and you bring it together i don't think that's happened yesterday. i say, that's what you need, because otherwise you get confusion, and worse, bad choices. you need to know what's available and you need to talk to the players to know where the supplies are, because we are, it's going to be -- we're going to be shot supplies, whether -- whether we ban russian oil or
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not. the de facto sanctions around the world are taking out 2.5 maybe 3 million barrels a day of oil. british ports won't receive russian oil. a shipper can't get financing to pick up a cargo. that's what's happening. and as the crisis gets worse, that could get worse it also means tight collaboration between companies and the governments. not just the united states, but we need to be working together this is a crisis this is an emergency and you're going to see in the next week, you know, this is going to be a very -- we feel here, a very momentous week, and, you know, what you see here beginning of the week could be much higher as the week proceeds and as the war grinds on, and ukraine, in ukraine and vladimir putin who wrote an essay saying ukrainians are our brothers is killing them >> all right i guess we're out of time. long term you would just -- we
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need to do it all, i guess that's the answer. >> that right. that's right long term is -- and be rational about what we do >> oh, well, that's not going to happen all right. dan yergin, thank you. programming note be sure to catch interviews throughout the day here on cnbc it's a the 40th annual week and hear from biggest names in energy includinged ceos of connick e philips, pioneer natural resources and many, many more. brian sullivan is there joining us. >> right in houston, of all places. >> lives for it. when we come back, your biggest pre-market stock movers on this monday morning, and former vice chair joining us about interest rates, the market and much more. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc live from the market site in times square.
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hey, dom. >> so there's one stock that's going to open probably now at a record high. it's been setting record highs for the last several sessions now. that's archer daniels midland. big company when it comes to food and agricultural services they help farmers. they develop solutions to bring to market. that company is now, again, up about 2% in the pre-market trade. the reason why i want to highlight, you can see here, it gets a gold star because it has been hitting record hies along the way. this is all of course, grain prices specifically wheat continue to surge. the wheat prices hitting a 14-year high in trading so far this is the sixth-straight day, i believe, where those wheat prices have now traded limit up
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in terms of the futures market the cap that they can go up by any given day. so wheat prices, agricultural services, fertilizers, that sort of stuff very much in focus. archer daniels midland, at least indicative of that particular trade when it comes to individual stocks. the other ones in the green so far in the pre-market right now, active some of the defense contractors. rait yan technologies, l3 technology, lockheed, northrop continue to see a bid in the marketplace given the tensions we have seen in ukraine and russia again, watch those defense stocks then as we often do here, check on the most popular tickers search on our website cnbc.com from friday's session. tesla is always up there, but occidental given the news with warren buft and carl icahn and the russian ruble is the top ten most searched tickers on our website, cnbc.com. i would note, john, the top 50
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highlights on my twitter feed. number 45, this is the first time i have ever seen it in the top 50, more people are searching for the spread or difference between 10-year note yields and 2-year note yields. we'll see if that continues. >> six in a row, i believe, today. >> you know what happens in you're short you're like -- >> you can't do anything about it. >> you can't get out. >> you can't do anything about it. >> try to force in some other -- what, what's wrong >> i like your -- >> well, it's bad because you can lose a lot more than -- that's the whole thing that's so scary about that thanks, dom. when we come back, roger ferguson, former vice chairman of the federal reserve, he's going to join us "squawk box" will be right back. n across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.
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the fed is all but certain to raise interest rates next week, but the worldwide market turbulence brought on by the war in ukraine and now spiking oil prices are threatening to complicate the fed's monetary policy goals this year joining us right now is roger ferguson, distinguished fellow at the council on foreign relations, former ceo of tiaa and the former vice chairman of the federal reserves he is also a cnbc contributor. roger, it's not just oil prices this morning if you look at wheat, if you look at corn, if you look at the medals, you're seeing some pretty significant increases what is the fed thinking as it heads into the meeting next week
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seeing those moves >> the fed is thinking a couple things, one, this period of uncertainty. what is certain is that inflation is above the target that they have set over a longer period of time ultimately they're thinking they know they're going to have to gradually normalize rates. i think chairman powell clearly indicated he's favor of 25 basis point move the first time around and i think they're going to keep to that game plan as much as they can while also being quite mindful of the increased level of uncertainty, but we see, as you point out, some of that uncertainty is feeding into higher prices. i think they really want to get -- catch up as much as they can as quickly as they can without overdoing it. >> it looked like a pretty, you know, clear idea, yeah, you would be raising interest rates when you see inflation jumping like this, but now you get in a tricky situation where oil prices, which lead so quickly to higher price -- gas prices at
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the pump for consumers and you could be seeing $5 plus in terms of gas per gallon, that's a much trickier situation, it's harder for the fed to do that without having additional pressure coming on the economy that potentially puts us into a recession. >> well, i think you're right. i don't know if i would use the word recession, but what they're confronting is growth that is slower than otherwise would have been we have already seen some down tick in forecast, but let's remember, becky, the most recent labor force numbers showed they're starting to place the economy is growing quite nicely. unemployment down to 3.8%. we have seen a gradual uptick in labor force participation. while i think they have to balance, the focus will be a bit more on making sure they hold on to their credibility on inflation and be gradual about doing that to avoid the kind of downside risk that you're talk about, but they start in the place where the economy is quite robust and quite healthy, which is a net positive for them
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>> roger, if the fed continues to watch this really closely, what's your best guess for how things progress? obviously, you know, this is a volatile situation things are changing pretty quickly, but if you had to make a guess right now, you say they raise four times at a quarter basis point, five? >> i would say three, four and take a look. markets were expecting something six maybe seven. seven meetings left. that's a possibility, but given the uncertainty, i think what they would do is set a path towards several quarter-point raises, but also potentially take a pause and see exactly how this uncertainty is playing out. the good news is the markets are showing they're really quite liquid we're not in an emergency situation. but i do think they want to be a little careful about not overtightening and potentially unintentionally throwing us into something that goes from slower growth to recession. >> the 10-year yield has
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recovered a bit, but earlier overnight it was down as low as 1.668% that's kind of stunning. what do you think about that >> well, i think the 10-year is -- i think i heard an earlier person talking about this, the shape of the yield curve is important here and the question that's on everybody's minds is exactly that how do they balance the need to get inflation under control and get that soft landing, avoiding tipping into recession i think the 10-year is sort of saying, be careful don't want to go too fast. don't want to go too hard because, as you know, inverted yield curve might be signaling that markets are concerned the fed is going to have to unwind that's why i think a slow, steady and heavy moment of pause, if need be, just to take bearings in this very, very neutral time >> roger, thank you for your time today we really appreciate the time you've spend with us the last few weeks especially when things get so volatile. it's good to see you.
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>> thanks. happy to come on again when ever necessary. let's look at the futures. we started the morning with the dow down by more than 500 points right now down by 140 points s&p futures off by 14. the nasdaq down by 50. that does it for us today. >> good job, becky. >> joe and i will be right back tomorrow. >> good job, down 140. >> we'll take that as a wind we'll see you tomorrow right now it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street" i'm carl quintanilla with david and morgan brennan. jim cramer has the morning off day 12 of the russia invasion of ukraine. futures are off the morning lows as the german chancellor knocks down the possibility of a ban on russian energy and the market looks for some potential off ramps as a third round of talks begins in belarus. oil pulled back, still near 13-year highs as the u.s. and european allies explore bannin
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