there's still a thought that visa and mastercard could have more exposure and people wait to see if they come out with more in terms of the bottom line and settlement could be an issue investors are worried about. >> great point that does it for "the exchange," everyone "power lunch" starts rite now. ♪ welcome to "power lunch. i'm jon fortt. a sell-off on wall street. stocks dropped oil spikes to a 14-year high investorsfeeling the fallout o concerns of slowing economic growth we look at when's next for the market and for safe places to hide kell sfli. >> thank you the dow down 709 at the lows

down 411 on the dow. overnigh oil prices spiked to $130 a barrel. all-time from 2008 $147.50 since backed often to just about $119 gold prices breaking above $2,000 an ounce. the highest level since august of 2020. so the question really that investors are asking is how far can the market bend before breaking mike santoli has more at the nyse mike >> let's define what the borderline is between bending and breaking probably some near the recent lows we are in the zone right here. s&p 500 right around 4100 the very low end of that range overnight futures down that level and interesting an unthe down 15% level from the all-time

high and argument if you have faith that's a support zone. we had that low that's lower than right now a week ago thursday and crude oil is 30 bucks since then clearly some kind of callouss built up in the market sentiment is negative but perhaps not washed out levels. we bottomed in the 18 times forward earnings area. just a bit above that. cheaper than it's been in a couple years and the big wild kas card bank stocks are hit day after day and the funding stresses evident. it's nothing that looks like it's systemically acute but the kind of thing to keep potential buyers on the heels opposed to

diving in. >> how does that compare with prior market corrections >> i would say this reminds me a lot in some respects of the 2015, 2016 multiple months of this never really escaped the lows and did surround the first rate hike of a cycle. interestingly 180 degrees different. oil was melting down and the big fear was deflation this is the opposite but it also is leaving people to ask does the fed have things under control or not big issue final point, the market as a whole less expensive than before this pullback right here. >> thank you for now while the war in ukraine is rattling u.s. markets it has a bigger impact on europe. vanguard etf europe down 10% in

a week will it be long lasting regardless of the war? bob pisani is looking at europe. bob? >> hello, job. vanguard europe etf is biggest that trades in the united states for european investments looking at a 15-month low. it's had a double hit. it has a downdraft in january concerns on higher interest rates and now a second leg down on the ukrainian crisis and the concern here is very broad much longer impact on european growth and also of course on european earnings estimates. look how broad the decline is this year. no matter the sector, outside of energy, mid-20% investments.

volkswagen down 24%. rich people are worried. worried they won't be buying lvmh down in the mid-20% across the board general take down on the market. europe is having also this year modest earnings increases expected last year 50%. this year much more modest gains expected in the 7 to 10% range and a problem. right now, right now, jon, nobody believes the estimates. nobody is quite sure what is going on published numbers aren't reliable and the market acting like the analysts cut very quick len and if it drags on it's a

good reason to be cut. >> thank you despite foush straight weeks of declines in the market the next guest thinks we're entering a new era for industrials. let's bring in brian bow ski all good to see you. you heard what bob pisani just said europe potentially rocked by this would n't that be important to everybody's earnings including industrials? >> thank you so much for having us it is an honor if you're familiar with our work you know that we have been access bring critical of europe for about a decade if you look at what happened to europe the last 20 years depending on gdp estimates eurozone lost 10 to 12 full percentage points with respect to gdp and the world gdp we said for a long time it's a diminish asset and a value trap

and the things that were spoken about by bob in terms of earnings that makes a value trap very, very likely in europe and why we have seen the u.s. markets be a world of kind of relative resiliency in terms of equities and with respect to what's happened with treasuries and the dollar and so we think that north america is the place to be with the short term bases as we continue to be very reactive to respect of the conflict in europe. >> what about the fed then because before people worried about what happened in russia and ukrainian and how that's going to slow growth amy affect markets. is infrastructure spending more certain than the fed's impact is uncertain? >> it's a great question when the fed came out last week and talked about and basically

telegraphed 25 basis points they provided certainty and so much uncertainty to six or seven interest rate increases. we think that the fed has done a great job. fed funds future doesn't have a great predictive value to it and too many people focused on that. we think that we'll see 125 basis points of increases over 12 months. we think 25, 25, 25 and then wait to see what second half earnings look like and continue to look quite well i think industrials are teed up to lead for the three to five years given what we have seen and hear from infrastructure and increased cap x if taking aside -- putting aside the political stuff of drilling oil, increased xap x is good for

industrials and then increased defense spending if we are heading into another cold war period remember president reagan said peace through strength, peace through strength you have seen companies in europe talk about increased defense spending. >> three to five years i thought you would say months but that wouldreally be something. why do you tell people to resist the temptation to go overweight consumer staples right now >> nice to hear you, evans listen staples are expensive. there are areas of staples to benefit. costco is a staples company. i think costco is a top 25 company in the world and should own costco and walmart but looking at the packaged products, the soup makers, cereal, we are not eating it

anymore and not defensive assets anymore but the playbook is buy consumer staples and most consistent earner is big cap tech when you look at consistency of earnings it is microsoft and apple over kellogg's and general mills. >> you say the big call is when does inflation roll over when does it peak? even if it's up in the fourish percent range that's a problem for the feds, right? >> it is i think the doomsday call only works once can't collect on it. you have to focus on when inflation subsides and when earnings crank up and earnings are too low the second half of the year is our bet. less inflation starts to roll over and impact earnings in the

second half. all right. thank you. >> thank you. coming up, the ceo said the company is sold out of lng into the 2040s. we'll talk about the major shi shifts in the energy market and the war starting to have an impact on the spring selling season for housing some stocks bucking the trend. how about archer daniels mid land and newmont mining? stay with us

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welcome back stocks selling off today getting worse as the session drags on. let's see. markets on heightened alert for headlines out of ukraine let's get to kayla tausche for the latest developments. kayla? >> reporter: jon, a seen your u.s. official told reporters nearly 100% of the 150,000 russian troops amassed along the border are inside ukraine where russia is ramping up use of rockets, artillery and missiles and fired more than 625 missiles the u.s. is deploying additional 500 troops in europe bringing the total to a perm innocent or temporary basis to 100,000 ukrainian air space is

contested. president zelenskyy continuing to call on nato for aircraft to help if the west won't support a no-fly zone there. president biden discussing that and steps to punish russia on a call lasting 80 minutes. the eu is not expected to join a ban on russian oil imports though other countries like the uk and japan still might jon? >> give us a sense of the chess board. why didn't the u.s. talk about banning russian oil earlier? why wait until now >> reporter: they certainly talked about banning oil earlier on and a few considerations as to why it didn't happen or hasn't really been a serious consideration until right now. first the u.s. and other conditions wanted to reserve the painful measures as a deterrence

and did not work second, they wanted more time to telegraph to the market what would be done and by which countries so companies unwind contracts to change positions to prepare for such a move. finally,less a fear that if you banned russian oil broaddy prices would spike around the world allowing president putin to continue profiting selling to china and india. with prices spiking as it is right now that scenario is already happening so that worse-case scenario is already out the door with prices going up for consumers so there is now less of a worry that doing so could create those pressures kelly and jon? >> thank you let's talk about the possibility of banning russian energy imports

aerial cohen, did you grow up in kharkiv? >> i visited a lot my grand ma used to be there it tears my heart to remember places she took me to the zoo and central square is destroyed. tragic third of kharkiv is destroyed. >> we are watching to see what comes next what would an energy export ban, what would you want to call it, do to change the course of this war? >> russia is earning something like 60 to 70% of its revenue from exports of oil and gas and two thirds of that is oil. not gas. oil is a global commodity. we can get oil from anywhere in the world. a tanker would go. the russian tankers having a

hard time getting insurance. rates shot up 600% on russian shipping and tankers in particular it is easier to replace the russian oil but the biden administration was nasty to the saudi associates i understand the brutality but this is a new era. we shall at war. this is geopolitics. there's no place for emotions. we need to replace russian oil in the global markets and saudi, the emirates, angola, you name it, our own shale are the replacement commodities for that 4 to 5 million barrels it is doable and i'm surprised that the biden administration didn't do more faster on that issue

be gas it is more difficult. piped gas comes from russia. it is cheaper. t the europeans shot themselves in the foot by refusing to explore for shale shutting down their nuclear reactors so now scrambling for what can give them the base loads for electricity and that's gas so additional pipelines and additional lng there's a huge shortage as the ceo said into 2040 who could think about that >> on the russian side of it, talking about the u.s. and questioning the strategy on that side, but on the russian side are there enough countries to continue to buy russian oil to cancel the impact of the u.s. without europe not buying russian oil? when you consider the countries that will still buy and the

price spike that's likely as a result >> first of all, the chinese drive hard bargain with the russian commodities. oil and gas. the chinese will be buying at 50% discount because nobody else would. and whether they're going to take all of russia's oil i have my doubts. with india we have to explore diversify from the russian supply but the chinese-russian leng is fascinating because russia dug itself a huge hole in which it will emerge as the junior partner for china i joked for many year it is russians said they don't want to be raw materials of the west now they are and the second fiddle to the chinese dragon. >> quick question. so if we go this route and take the remaining funds flowing into

russian from western energy urks energy buying, what do you think putin's next move the likely to be aside from getting what he can with russian barrels elsewhere? tactically in terms of the war and financially. >> i would like to mention the nat gas because russia doesn't have the pipeline capacity to pump that extra gas to china but europe is not ready to give up 200 billion metrics of gas a year that is a lot. 150 million tons of lng equivalent but for sanctions i bru up a historic precedent. the reason pear harbor was attacked is president roosevelt

cut off oil to japan that triggered an attack we want to support the ukrainian friends. they deserve the weapons we give them, the airplanes from nato. that's terrific but we don't want to trigger the russian retaliation with nuclear weapons and then tactical nuclear exchanges and whatnot because putin already said that high level of sanctions is declaration of war and people think he is unhinged. >> harsh realities of politics in crisis. thank you. still to come, more on this volatile market as commodities soar bond yields fall and stocks sell off. the nasdaq down more than 2% 2.5 at one point

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welcome back to "power lunch" why check out the yield on the 10-year 1.73% down from more than 2% a few weeks ago so what does that mean for mortgage rates. let's go to diana olick. >> we have seen really wide swings take a look at the average rate on the 30-year fixed it recovered last week midweek again on friday. today back over 4. the recent drop is more purchasing power especially as home prices are gaining at the fastest pace in 45 years but an even bigger deal for homeowners more of whom benefit from a refinance and pull out the big home equity gains. how many more borrowers? about 3 million two weeks ago. that is shaving 50 basis points

out but with a drop in rates 5 million could benefit and according to blackknight of course that's nothing compared to last summer when rates so low that 19 million borrow irs could have ben efited those were the days. >> big picture and not looking for exact numbers but a sense. how dependent are homeowners have home values remaining stable or higher based on how leveraged they are we have rising interest rates and might moderator tank home values a bit. >> we have so much many equity gains. not looking at anybody close to underwater on the mortgage

we don't expect prices to go down but the gains to shrink a bit as rates continue on the upward trajectory. again lending is very tight right now. nothing like in subprime so current homeowners are sitting on a pile of cash. >> a buffer. let's get to the news update with rahel solomon. >> here's what happening the first trial of the january 6 defendant is wrapping up this afternoon. he is charged with a handgun leading a group up the west side of the capitol and his teenage son that his father threatened to shoot him and his sister if navy s.e.a.l.s could deny the coronavirus vaccine.

defense minister said that you surps power. as clarence thomas is calling for the high court to recar provision of section 230 to not give social media sites if they are used to commit crimes following the court's decision not to hear an appeal of a texas suing facebook after she said she was victimized by a man she met on the platform at 15. back to you. >> thank you. the nasdaq off the session lows down 2.5% how are energy firms dealing with the climb in oil and gas prices we'll speak to the ceo of shiner energy nenxt and now travel firm might add surcharges to cover the energy costs there are the shares not 'rba ia ng kindly.

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oil pulling back from the 13-year highs. we'll speak to the ceo of shiner energy in a moment dom? >> the market narrative didn't change that much we are still hovering toward the lower end of the trading range dow was down 709 points call it. little over 2% on the day. the s&p was about 2.3% at the downside at the lows and nasdaq underperformer, down 2.5% today. you can see the juxtaposition compared to the lows energy is upside momentum juggernaut but not the best on the sector that crown goes to the utility sector and the sector spydr that tracks slu hit a record intraday

high today maybe not that shocking given the defensive tilt in the current geopolitical area. from a company perspective keep an eye, if i sound like a broken record, defensive contractors. lockheed, northrop grumman and each of those four stocks hitting another record high. each of them at some point today. back to you. >> the trend is your friend. thank you. you would think money would be moving into bonds but yields are slightly higher. rick santelli has more rick >> kelly, your comments are correct. lots of man moving into

treasuries and lots of selling in treasuries, as well short dated ones maybe more selling and why the flat curve is flattening with the forces at work look at a 24-hour chart of 2s. last night around 7:00 p.m. eastern trading 1.41%. you can see 1.54 up 6 1/2 basis points on the 2-day chart. it did come back from the 1.66% low last night up 1.5 in 10s. little over in 2s. hovering in the low 20s actually at the flattest it's been in over two years and on that month chart it was at 62 one point ago. 40 basis points.

it is huge finally here's the biggest chart of the day nominal versus inflation protected. it is an inflation adjusted high of 17 years. not since 2005 yes, this invasion made things much worse but let's not lose sight of the fact of questionable policies in energy that made this so much easier to accomplish with respect to what the crude oil and natural gas charts look like kelly, back to you. >> quickly on that, is that inflation expectations over a ten-year period or the ten years imply for next five years? you know what i'm saying >> that's implied for 10s. we could look at all the other metrics. some the fed likes better than

others but to understand what's driving inflation and on those commodities how long it takes them to adjust back down. >> to the point people think it will persist for sometime. thank you. meantime a huge day for oil. settling just under $119 a barrel after a high of $130 no overnight trading. we went up to $147 in 2008 key issue is will the russian imports will be banned germany less likely. brent crude at 122 here's why it's a potential to hurt the excuconsumer and the economy. gas buddy says the national average $4.10 a gallon right

now. it is up 49 crepts in the past 7 days, the largest 7-day rise in history. let's get to brian sullivan live with the ceo of cheniere energy. brian? >> thank you what a time to talk to you, jack so much going on not only around oil but natural gas, as well and you and i were chatting and you made the point and other ceos have come up to us making this point even though prices are up this is not good for the industry this is not a good thing for you or the industry in general. >> that'sright first thank you for having me here we saw just today prices start off at $110 for natural gas into europe and then down to 70 and then back to 100.

that kind of volatility is extremely difficult to plan or and tragic on what's going on in europe from a geopolitical sense and the high energy prices we are focused on operating so today we processed between 7 and 7 1/2 billion kubik feet of nat gas about 8% of all production in america and senning out two cargos a day and going to europe trying to help. >> it is people say how could he talk about business at a time like this let's be clear part of the reason putin feels emboldened to do what he is doing in the stupid and murderous war is he knows he has europe under the thumb of energy in many ways the calculus is they don't respond because they need me and the natural gas too much u.s. lng is not ultimate answer, not the only answer but it does seem to be a big part of an

answer correct? to maybe help end this kind of con fliblgt. >> absolutely. we completed the $40 million investment program building trains and announced today another $7 billion expansion at the corpus christi facility effectively to build another 10 million tons we are already the largest exporter of lng in america second largest in the world and gaining on that. you are right. from an energy security perspective lng is not the only answer but a big portion of it for america. >> there was a headline today that say that you said that cheniere is sold out of lng until 2040 i thought there's no growth there. that headline is maybe misleading >> i apologize for that. i misspoke

on a nine-train platform we are sold out and why the expansion is so important to us. we'll sell more long term. >> for customers - >> just call >> you operate under the extreme long term contracts. ten, 15, 20 years with china or jan japan and the uk and europe is buying how do they do that? >> yeah. so two things. one, the initial foundation customers were european utilities and grateful to them and they get the product from us we have been reliably delivering on that product.

unfortunately it is not enough to meet all demands. with a cold winter and needed mo more liquefied gas and buy spot. >> we talk about demand destruction for gasoline gasoline in california is at $6 in parts of the state. ke keeps going up people slow down the driving does natural gas have a breaking point? or because it is used to do things like heat homes, power utilities there isno demand destruction? >> i worry about that every day. in america nat gas is $5 it's $100 in europe. huge spread. ultimately it is good for everybody if we can get an affordable product at a reasonable price and keep it

reliable. >> before we go back to kelly, repeat that point because this is i think insane to think about. we are paying -- natural gas board here as we can it shows $5. >> yeah. >> in the spot market of european priced in euros per mega watt hours, the equivalent is $100 in europe? >> yes >> how do they deal with that? >> well, you know, it is creating a shift now and hearing ab the europeans invest in natural gas frack. pipelines in countries that's what happens. we start to expand they start to invest and hopefully we can help get them off of russian gas. >> maybe they should have done

this ten years ago we threw up the natural gas board. five bucks in the spot market in europe would say $100 now they talk about energy diversification. it is a hell of a time to be alive and a heck of a time to be at this conference. >> thank you guys both up next, going to look at the industries being hit with the ripple effects of higher oil prices the autd makers. nasdaq right now at session lows we'll be right back with that index up nr w eado3% (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in.

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welcome back to "power lunch. big jump in oil prices we have seen recently sent gasoline prices soaring for the national average. the u.s. national average hit an all-time record of a tick over

$4.10. will that speed up the transition to electric vehicles? let's bring in phil lebeau. >> good to be here you would think this is a day everyone says get out of the gasoline poired vehicles and the evs. look at the automakers what are most of the vehicles bought right now suv ds, trucks very few small cars bought in the united states anymore and people pay more when they fill up that's what you have hit by that. in terms of evs look at ford why the reason is because last week made a commitment to increase the evs in production to 2 million by 20 26 a big increase well, adam jonas has a note from morgan stanley saying really hitting 2 million. where will ford source all the

raw materials? lithium, nickel. a battery cell and pack. call us if you have any ideas. a last chart to look at is tesla. why are we showing you tesla tesla, a, has the supply chain probably better set up better than any ev automaker in the world. if people say i can't stand $4.10 a gallon where do you get an ev? tesla. >> absolutely. even for tesla there's a decent wait i would think. >> a decent wait and not like -- look if you wait for a gm or a ford, ford get the mustang mach e but you are waiting a while. the lightning has a lot of reservations and not a knock on it but if you are saying i want

a small crossover, model y where is the production increasing text giga factory. >> thank you. all aboard zblmplt prices starting to hit every industry, including travel the cruise companies may be looking to push costs onto customers. we'll have the latest after this (rhythmic electro rock music) (crowd cheering) - bito, bito, bito, bito! - [announcer] bito, the first u.s. bitcoin-linked etf.

welcome back travel related stocks deep in the red as energy prices continue their climb u.s. jet fuel hitting its highest level since august 2014, driving airlines down as much as 8% same goes for cruise lines, where fuel is a massive expense. royal caribbean down around 7% its worst day since december and it only trickles further down the line from there hitting travel booking, casinos, and more in response to the pressure, travel firms could start pushing the costs customers. seema modi has more. >> and the cruise lines did implement a fuel surcharge back in 2007 when the price of oil

surpassed $100 a barrel. this is a decision that was then reversed in 2008 due to customer pushback and the florida attorney general at the time asking the cruise lines to reimburse apparentlies truest analyst says this time around, the operators don't have the purchasing power to pass on the cost as demand for sailing is still on the mend what could change, though, is the percentage of ships brought back to sea, like the airlines, the cruise lines can change capacity to get around oil prices right now, carnival plans to bring back 100% of its vessels by july. norwegian is early second quarter of this year other travel related names are being caught up in this sell-off, if you look at the hotel operators, they're down 4% to 5% today on concerns that geopolitics could slow down the travel recovery. i did speak to the ceo of pebblebrook, a major hotel read, owner of 53 properties across the nation he tells me that demand post omicron is still accelerating. they're not seeing the impact of

geopolitics thus far, but share prices suggesting a different story. one consideration, guys, is pricing the average cost to book a hotel room up 40% compared to the same time last year. and on that note, take a look at vacation rental stocks not faring any better today with booking holdings, expedia, airbnb, down about 5% to 9% just today. >> even if they have pricing power, this is telling you - >> a different story for now >> totally thank you very much. seema modi >> wheat prices are also up for the last six straight weeks. we'll look at soft commodity prices that are under the microspeex ath 7% today.

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for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity. welcome back the nasdaq has been falling, now down nearly 3% session lows but wheat prices soaring limit up for yet another session. dominic chu is joining us now with that. >> it's six straight sessions. that's how many times it's been limit up, meaning you get to a certainly level and they halt trading because it's gone too far. to put that number in context, 1,294 dollars was the last price for wheat in terms of futures. the huge spike you're seeing on the extreme right-hand side of the screen is the sixth straight days we have seen in terms of gains capped off by exchange limits there and by the way, since the lows we saw on the 25th of february, wheat prices are up roughly 50% in just those six sessions alone. that's how badly it's gotten

if you take a look at wheat prices, yes, it's very clear and simple, we have about 29% of all exports of wheat around the world responsible by russia and ukraine, and with those countries in conflict, it becomes a big issue. that's having a carry-over effect in other parts of the great and soft commodities market as well one other place it's playing out and this is also because of the agricultural dynamic that's changed because of what's happening with russia and ukraine is fertilizer. i want to show you two different stocks that are both fertilizer producers, that's cf industries and the mosaic companies over the course of the last 12 months, we have seen them doubling in price. here alone just on a year to date period, a massive move higher more demand for fertilizer higher crop prices, possibly shorter supply because many places that produce it are in russia around those areas. you have a lot of agriculture companies in demand. by the way, archer daniel's midlnld, a company we don't talk about a lot, a record high again

today in prices. >> even as you're talking, the biden administration saying they're going to do everything they can on gasoline prices. >> we haven't even talked about nickel and base metals a lot of dynamics at play, but wheat prices caught my attention. six straight days of limit up. >> big problem for emerging markets. and thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you, jon and kelly. welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen a sell-off on wall street to start the week as the war in ukraine starts to inject uncertainty in the market. nasdaq seeing the sharpest declines, down almost 3% as we head into the close. >> i'm mike santoli. let's look at what's driving the action futures tanked overnight as oil prices surged to their highest level since 2008 crude has since pared its gains. the u.s. is considering a stand-alone ban on russian oil more on that in just a