"squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with with joe kernen. andrew is off today. a lot of people are wondering what is happening after the decline yesterday. the dow futures indicated up 73 points s&p up 14. the nasdaq up 22 that doesn't do anything to get back from the losses fro yesterday. we should note it was a swing for the dow futures. down sharply overnight and have recovered at least at this hour from the lows we saw in the 1:00 a.m. to 2:00 a.m. our. all of this after the sell off with the dow down 800 points closing in correction territory for the first time in two years.

s&p down nearly 3% that is the worst daily per performance since october of 2020 the nasdaq off more. down 3.6%. let's look at crude oil prices yesterday, wti and brent closing at lowest levels since july of 2008 they are indicated up again this morning by 2.8% to 3%. wti at $122.76 natural gas prices coming down slightly crude oil prices that is coming as the average price of gasoline in the united states hit a record $4.17 according to aaa that breaks the record from july of 2008 treasury yields. the ten-year yield is up 1.844%. this comes after falling to about 1.688% in the last couple

days >> i had 80 miles left on the suv. 80 miles i could have gone and put in regular and it was $77. almost $80. >> you are not driving a huge? >> not the double huge it is a great car. a beautiful navigator. i know you have a couple of gas guzzlers it is interesting to think about history. everything starts -- we can't remember -- my son can remember actual dates whacky so october of 2020, that doesn't show you what happened in march of 2020. >> no. >> we made a huge rebound from the pandemic lows and pulled back a little bit in october i remember that. then i was trying to remember 2008 >> there was a huge surge.

right before everything crashed. that is the conversation we were having yesterday where the huge oil price spikes they preceded the last four recessions it goes hand-in-hand where somebody called it the handmaiden it worries you about what's to come >> we will talk about this interesting piece in the journal that summarizes all of the majors that have, you know, best laid plans getting out with billions of losses don't know what to do. they were partnered up with putin in russia. news breaking in the last 30 minutes. shell announcing it intends to stop buying russian crude on the spot market. it will not renew new term contracts. a phased withdrawal from russian petroleum products and pipeline gas and lng.

it will shut fuels in russia shell came under pressure from buying heavily discounted oil from russia despite saying it would commit the profits to humanitarian aid for ukraine the company apologized for purchasing the oil and said it was the wrong decision. >> it came at a huge pressure. the ukrainian foreign minister said this is blood money that you are taking putting pressure on them on top of that at the time yesterday, they were saying this was something they did because they had to trying to make sure they have enough supplies for europe and areas they have and be if they don't do it, they can't refine it it shows you how quickly this has turned although there may not be official agreement from the united states or europe in terms of saying we're going to ban russian imports, you will feel the pressure no matter who you are. a company cannot get away with this >> it points out that last week or before the actual move into ukraine, there are 150,000

troops on the border and the company still believed we can manage this. we can weather this storm. what were they thinking? and bp, shell, exxonmobil believe they can weather the fall we see it happen and the images. there is no way. what do they think the minor incursion that president biden talked about initially to take the two east breakaway regions. >> they think back to crimea people turned away the same thing putin thought the images we have seen and how much has come and how brave the ukrainian people have been and the attacks yesterday with the reporters watching the woman and children killed that russian troops inten intentionally targeting them. >> on the corridors, they were mining the civilian corridors. mining putting mines in

they expected in the south, what we thought about, when we freed iraq flowers and russian flags. that is not what they got in any part of the country. >> it has been 12 days and complicated and the ukrainians have dug in and heroic >> i am trying to decide if this is a possibility in the universe is there any possibility that putin cuts his losses and turns tail and retreats? i can't see that >> it doesn't fit with his m.o. or what we know of him certainly there is enough pressure -- yesterday, an offer they were saying if you give these three breakaway territories, perhaps we would do that would you believe anything they say? they said go ahead we will shell you as you have civilians fleeing the area it is complicated. the markets reaction is the least. human issue on this and human

toll is the greatest we are talking about oil and what we can continue to picture. we will bring in helima croft. the managing director and global head of commodity strategy and cnbc contributcontributor. helima, the numbers are rat ratcheting up rapidly. this is coming before the official order from the united states or agreement in europe to cut off russian supplies entirely how much of this is priced in as if that would already happen and how much is that because of what we have seen and companies are saying forget it we will not do business with you. >> becky, shell indicated they are not going to purchase any more russian crude they took so much criticism. accused of war profit teering russia could lose imports by

companies walking away the ceo at totale said they will stay they will not take any russian barrels. it is a situation where very few countries are willing to touch this product right now that is before we've talked about any formal oil em bargo or sanctions. >> we talked about how this is different from the past. you had situations where people maybe thought after crimea, this is something we will step away it got back to the partnership very quickly is this different? will these fractured relationships ever go back >> becky, the scale of destruction is massive two weeks into the conflict and 2 million refugees we are talking about the serious, sustained loss of russian exports. it will be hard to lift

sanctions on russia in any short order. this will be long duration russia is the most sanctioned country in the world market participants need to seriously write down the russian exports for an extended period the question for washington and european governments is where will you source those additional barrels to make up for the significant russian export pull right now? >> the answer seems to be anywhere they can possibly find it even venezuela or iraq it is changed our perspective on the worst neighbor country how quickly can they get ramped up >> iraq is basically out we have four countries in opec with spare capacity. with we think it is around at 2 million barrels. one country sitting significant

capacity is saudi arabia the question is is president biden going to pick up the phone and call the saudi crown prince or send a high level delegation to saudi arabia in the coming days to secure additional barrels from that country? u.s. production will grow, but as you know, putting additional rigs, that is oil coming in six months time. immediate oil comes down to the question of saudi arabia willing to resume central bank role in oil. if saudi arabia maxs out, we have no spare capacity this is a massive russian export hole we are not talking formal sanctions or a russian response. we had the deputy prime minister of russia saying oil could be $ $300 he made a reference withholding gas surprise through nord stream 1. we have not yet seen the russian

response i would watch with natural gas. >> opec plus, opec plus russia, has been the grouping for years now to try to compete with the united states as we ramped up production how willing is saudi arabia to break that alliance and what will they extract from the united states? >> they said we want a new security framework with the united states. if we are changing horses mid race and get in the middle of the conflict in terms of cross with russia, we want clear indications of the u.s. willingness to partner with the kingdom to address the clear security needs also, president biden will have to reach out directly to the crown prince of saudi arabia not call his father. call the man who is running the country. >> meaning that if this is a situation where we don't want to get involved in the conflict in ukraine, we have to help saudi

arabia does that mean with weapons or troops >> i think absolutely in terms of weapons they are dealing with their security threat from the houthis in the south and iranian backed group. they are looking for additional defense and patriot missiles some want help with their nuclear program. saudis will drive a hard bargain with president biden president biden was focused on pivoting to asia and thinking the middle east would not be an important area for the administration now he is having to spend a lot of time trying to get the middle east to help him deal with the severe economic crisis coming from the conflict. >> helima, if the solution is drill more here, i hear your point, it takes six months to do that this is not overnight. that is a tough bargain to strike if you are trying to win six months

is the white house asking american producers to step up and produce as quickly as they can and is this something we can live with for six months until that happens >> you hear a new tone from the biden administration when they talk about u.s. producers. this is a government that came into power talking about keeping oil on the ground and net zero imperative now they are having to ask u.s. producers to ramp up u.s. producers at the energy conference are saying we don't want to be told we need to temporarily. we want a place at the table and discussions of an orderly managed transition and on natural gas, you have producers saying we are here for the u.s. energy security needs it is u.s. lng going into europe we need help with export infrastructure so we can get more u.s. lng on the water and reduce dependance on russian

gas. i think certainly the issue of europe's dependence on russian energy and european governments are talking about the need to break the dependence and then accelerate to renewables this is where the united states comes in and as a major natural gas producer also, thinking carefully about germany. i do think this is going to be an important inflation point for the administration when they think about how they manage the climate goals and energy security goals >> helima, if these hostilities were to end quickly and years pass, russia is oil rich can the world go without tapping those reserves j just looking at bp and their

losses they were carrying rosneft on their balance sheet. now it is zero let's say there is a regime change are we using russian oil again >> joe, that is a great question if vladimir putin is not in power and there is a new government, i think that is a path to rolling back sanctions barring a change at the top and the way he has prosecuted this war and humanitarian crisis that has unfolded, i think will be very difficult for western governments to roll the sanctions back in short order. this is a situation where the sanctions will be sticky and hard for western companies to reiengage with russia after wha happened in the last two weeks >> helima, thank you for helping us sort through it all >> thank you

when we come back, we will take you live to london where the lme has suspended trading of nickel after the prices have doubled. and we will talk more about the big moves in the energy sector with the ceo of hess. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" d iss bcanth icn >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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the president will reportedly sign an executive order outlining the strategy for crypto cryptocurrency the order will review the agencies to examine the regulatory changes, including the study of the possible creation of the u.s. digital currency checking crypto prices now they have been moving. you can watch the futures. s&p futures i'm talking about. we are back to nearly $39,000. $44,000 as recently in the last ten days on bitcoin. >> off the lows. >> yeah. we got as low as 33 or 34. new this morning, the lme is suspending trading of the nickel contract after the price doubled amid the short squeeze rosanna lockwood has more. rosanna, this is weird stuff you don't see this happening

>> it is funny, becky and joe, talking about crypto some people saying traders should have piled into nickel rather than bitcoin. people made a lot of money this was before the london metal exchange suspended trading in the nickel contract. i cannot overemphasize the importance the drama on the floor must have been intense this morning. you had it suspended nickel soared above $100,000 a ton. then sunk to $80,000 per ton before suspension. the statement from the lme they say the steps taken on the open trading floor and electronic systems intended to maintain market orderliness and assuring liquidity is maintained and available. in case nearby carries should evolve in the situation. they are talking here that this could be a multiday closure as

well for the nickel contract because of the way the geopolitical situation is u unfolding in ukraine traders are on call for that and trades booked prior to the suspension should be subject to adjustment or reversal they are saying it is about covering the shorts in the contract we have been warned before the intense fighting in ukraine about the russian role in the nickel market. russia has 10% of the nickel market it is a huge component part in electric vehicle batteries you don't need to tell the viewers why it is so important. 15% or 20% of the world's supply when you take that into account and the situation regarding sanctions and how they are applied to russia and how it

impacts the supply questions to the london metal exchange the market of last resort for metals i heard traders in london saying intervention should have been taken yesterday when it closed up 66% why did they allow the market to open to see prices shoot up to records never seen before in 145 years? something else when we talk about covering the short trades andissues. lme has given more time to make payments on margins because there is going to be a massive squeeze on margins >> rosanna, this is a situation where you hear about getting caught in the short squeeze. nobody feels sorry for you if you get caught in a short squeeze. it is a tricky thing to do of

the tsituation with the brokers in 1995 with ten brokers they don't want to see all of the brokers get taken down and have nowhere to trade. it is important to point out that this is knonot doing sometn to protect the short sellers, but to protect the institutions so you don't see a complete wash out. >> really important. thank you, becky the effects that it could have on the wider markets and making sure the brokers stay in business it is worth mentioning it would have been something to be there this morning. >> it is stunning to hear about these things rosanna, thank you for explaining rosanna lockwood coming up, we will get you ready for apple's big launch event today. life goes on, right? that's next. a programming note

don't miss the pre mmiere of the show "no retreat business boot camp." that guy will be on at 7:900 it will be here on cnbc tomorrow night. stay tuned "squawk box" is coming right back the downloads are flying fast! verizon is going ultra, so your business can too.

google announcing it will buy cybersecurity company mandiant for $23 million. upon the close of the acquisition, mandiant will join

google's cloudy v division. >> i think it had run up >> it is stuck down there at low 20s. it ran up from 14. it was at 14 in january. go back a bit further. it is bought right at margin the long-term chart you don't see it. time for the executive edge. apple is holding the first launch event of the year today it will be streamed from the apple park headquarters in cupertino. it is expected to update iphone with 5g and faster processor it could update the ipad air and introduce imaccomputers and new colors >> right they give me the stories to read it is about gambling >> sports?

the nfl -- if he is telling the truth, i understand what goodell is doing the nfl suspended wide receiver calvin ridley all the way through the 2022 season for betting on games the league says ridley bet on games during a five-day period, during the period where he addressed his mental well being and he was not playing goodell said he threatened to acknowledge confidence and football and undermine the reputation of players. he supposedly bet on his team. in a series of tweets following his suspension, this is what i meant, he says that in total he had best $1,500. he doesn't have a gambling problem. i say that a lot here is what i meant he will have to forfeit his $11 million satellitlary for 2022. i think he shouldn't be betting

on football. if you make $11 million, $1,500 is not a high roller. >> they can't have a black sox incident where it looks like games are thrown this is different. he was betting on his team not against them >> think about the guy who still has more hits than anyone else ever not in the hall of fame. >> right >> with all this the steroid era and everything else performance enhancement era. that is still keeping him out. >> i think this is even more important now that the league and other sports leagues have gotten into bed with gambling in the situation. it raises questions. >> yeah. >> it would be the same story if one of us was trading stocks we were not supposed to trade. >> all professional sports now gambling is accepted and that's why the ratings are up and

in-game betting. >> you cannot have questions if games are rigged sports lines are so good about points how often do you miss by one point? >> i lose by half a point a lot. i have been losing lately. you are given eight points they are up by 20 and the last five minutes of the game, the guys are like, yeah, we're up by 20 there is no way they are coming back and win by 7. >> you already think it is rigged based on the idea it slipped out and it came that close. if you hear players are gambling on top, what does it do to undermine the league the league put themselves in the position by getting close and cozying up with gambling i feel bad for the player. it seems like extreme punishment i understand why they are taking it. >> when i said i don't have a gambling problem

i don't. >> it doesn't have to do with a gambling problem or not. it has to do with the idea you are gambling when you are not allowed to and the league has reasons why they don't want any player involved. especially on their own team >> i happen to know boston college and pittsburgh are playing today. boston college is given two points >> you have a gambling problem >> no, i don't it's $5. $5 i can't wait until 2:00 to watch it on accn >> it makes the games interesting. >> it's fun. they have three straight losses. we will see what happens i have the screaming eagles. when we come back, the futures are higher this morning after a big swing overnight. we will talk strategy about what you should be doing a little later this morning check that out futures were down significantly. managed to rebound for now later, senator ted cruz will join us for the latest on the war in ukraine as we head to break, look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. let's look at the futures. dow futures indicated up by 95 points s&p up 16. nasdaq up by 20 points this is coming as u.s. secretary of state blinken is making headlines just now he says there is an opportunity and imperative in the moment for the european countries to move up dependence on russian energy. the comments he is making recently have driven up energy prices we will look at that in a moment blinken addressing nuclear talks with iran. russia has an interest in making sure iran does not acquire a nuclear weapons. we will look at the headlines throughout the day wti is up again after closing

yesterday at the highest level since july of 2008 it is up $3.36 to 122.810. aaa is saying the national average is $4.19 a gallon. the highest we have seen surging on commodities nasdaq is off 21% from the own high joining us now is the co-ceo of invest net which has $622 billion. barry knapp as well. steve was on yesterday morning steve liesman. slow growth and inflation is looking like a real possibility, dana that is the write up after the 800--point loss. high rate. high inflation possible stagflation it is finally hitting home

is this conflict going to be so protracted that this becomes at least nfor a while the new normal dana >> i think we are in for a potentially fairly persistent bout of inflation. it is difficult to see how we move away from that. i think the fed will move forward with rate hikes. everyone is expecting that that is bad for makrkets as wel. stagflation is a situation where you battle inflation, but also now seeing damp ening growth you can't keep disadvantaging mainstream saevers who need to buy goods and higher interest rates will hurt markets at the same time with the geopolitical crisis. >> barry, how do we arrive at the right conclusion do we look at the history of

conflicts to see how they play out or do we look at the reaction to the markets in the history of conflicts this one may not be as simple as some of the previous ones where it was just a buying opportunity because it did not last that long if this is the beginning of at least months or years of conflict, it seems different than first iraq war for example. >> i think that is a fair point, joe. what it brings me to is and i heard you and becky earlier talking about the role of energy in 2008 and that iraq war are is another example. in fact, we were already in recession in 1990 when iraq rolled into kuwait that was a consequence of the fed raising the fund rate to 9%. savings and loan industry collapsing and housing sector under pressure

it wasn't something to cause us to tip in recession. in 2008, the consumer sector had been in recession for a year and a half when energy spiked to 150. it began with house prices peaking in 2006. if you compare that to the current environment, just look at household net worth which is 16% in the '08 cycle it took until 2013 to regain the hit to household netting worth household net worth is 20% above where it was during the beginning of the pandemic. the bottom level of income earners. it is a long way to say the housing sector is in a stronger position to absorb the price shock. the importance is the mix of growth, joe. we were moving from less consumption to more investment

in 2022. s&p bottoms up 21% of where it was in 2019. that is where it will drive cap x productivity and labor income which is surging, by the way i think we are in a stronger position to absorb this than in '90 or '08 of t like the pandemic, we will find the u.s. private sector is more flexible than people think right now and this will turn out to be a pretty good opportunity to put money to work in the cyclical sector sectors. >> barry, can you give any thought to nato or the united states be drawn further into this into something that would raise the spector of god knows what? i hesitate the world only ends once and you can't use nuclear

weaponsmore than once. >> right. >> we have putin who put that on high alert the part of the russian defense system on high alert where are you? are you in vail? >> i was looking at you and becky in the studio thinking i walk by there every day for god knows how many years from 2001. >> are you out there you are close to denver. >> two years ago, we moved to vail two years ago i really miss walking through downtown >> you are in the mountains. talking about stocks like you have nothing to worry about. dana, a shooting war with nato and the u.s. i can't imagine the markets would go higher based on that. >> i think i agree with the comments and people in markets it has been a great trade in the

last couple years to move to tech and growth. i agree on the cyclical side with this one. i think rather than looking for those areas in the rising rate environment, maybe think more around small caps that aren't as hit by the globalization dividend being under attack. small caps can protect people more i would say he emerging markets it is a tough go long haul is a good place to diversify. >> barry, i didn't get an answer from you on whether -- i guess -- what is it? low probability outcomes we described. not zero >> no, and the way i tend to approach that, joe, you talked about the extreme. no point selling in front of the

extreme. when you look at measures of risk right now, they are extremely elevated the vix or the six-month vix future versus one month. all of those things are really elevated to levels that indicate that this risk is fairly well priced not the catastrophic risk. that is never priced the risk is already pretty well discounted i think dana is spot on. we have a valuation reset here, joe. equal weight s&p is down to the 16% range. the big stocks are still rich. tech is still rich staples are rich the stuff that is fairly valued is the cyclical sectors. financials energy is still cheap, believe it or not. i spoke to a former colleague from barclays. these are reflecting the price

in the $70 range. whatever you think is going to happen and you heard helima talking about it earlier energy is strained for some time to come. you know, i realize these stocks have moved a lot i have never been long on them in my life they are still not pricing the environment. there is a lot to be done in the cyclical stocks. investors should be brave and step up and put money to work. >> all right barry, i was looking up. i don't have are time. looking up george c. scott patton winner quote. will you say that? no, don't do that. >> i was there when the cathineogens fought the romans. >> dana, i know how much money you are investing. that makes me nervous.

thank you both the pandemic go to this that's why i think we are living in a simulation sometimes. i believe that how can this happen? >> i'll not argue with that theory when we come back, we are going to have more on the big energy moves we are watching this morning we will talk to the ceo of hess live from the energy summit in houston. a reminder, you can watch or listen to us live yte t bc apponhe what the world needs now... is people. people who see flight a little bit differently. so it takes less fuel to bring people together... ...and make faraway places feel a little closer... ...with engines that power planes

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breaking news in the auto sector phil lebeau has more >> joe, we've got a partnership between general motors and the california utility pg&e. this partnership between gm and pg&e will focus on evs we don't have all the details yet but we'll get those later on this morning when we're talking with mary bara who's the ceo of general motors as well as with patti poppe who's the ceo of pg&e we see more and more people rotate into electric vehicles, and you have california which is the largest ergs v market in the country. you have the growth in evs continuing, and yet in the backdrop of all this this is a

wild time in the auto industry between record high gas prices, the chip shortage which continues to hamper everybody, and now with evs and everybody increasing their sales forecast or their production forecast it raises the question is there enough nickel out there? adam jones was out with a note today saying you can talk all you want about committing capital to building more evs, but if there's not nickel, there's not nickel and you're not going to be able to build as many as you're saying you're going to produce this is an interesting partnership. we'll be talking with them coming up, an exclusive interview coming up in the 8:00 hour, guys don't want to miss what they have to say about this partnership as pg&e and general motors working on further development of the ev market, and we'll talk about that in a greater detail a little bit later on this morning. >> hey, phil, really important what you are pointing out in terms of we've talked about nickel and lme had to shut the exchange because it was up 2% in the last

two days it was a key element in these batteries. "a," will the companies be able to produce as many cars as they expected, and "b," what's it mean for pricing on that, too? >> first of all, pricing you're going to see increasingly auto makers say it's going to be tougher to get down to the magical 100 per kilowatt hour equivalency when it comes to ev battery packs. that is the holy grail, if you will that's where they need to get to it's going to be tougher to do that as you see these higher prices for all these metals. the main point with regard to nickel everybody i've talked with in regards to analysts, those who work with auto makers, everybody says the same thing, there's not enough nickel right now. not for the forecasts out there. somebody's going to have to cut their forecasts. everybody says the same thing, don't worry about us, we'll secure the nickel, it'll be somebody else.

you know how this goes likely everybody will have to cut their forecast >> forget about the supply chains being fixed this year we'll talk more about this and see you later this morning when we come back, congress considering a bill to ban russian energy imports as russia warns it could drive oil prices above $300 a barrel. l lk about the potential fallout next as a main street bank, pnc has helped over 7 million kids develop their passion for learning. and now we're providing 88 billion dollars to support underserved communities... ...helping us all move forward financially. pnc bank: see how we can make a difference for you.

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let's get more on the russian invasion of ukraine. joining us right now with the latest is michael ohanlen, a brookings institution senior fellow in foreign policy, and michael, this is a situation that maybe people didn't originally expect the invasion it's here. then people didn't expect the ukrainians would be able to hold out for the 12 days they have at this point this is pretty difficult to try and see what comes next, but what are you hearing what are the expectations? how long will this play out?

what do you think happens? >> hi, becky well, most people who have studied putin don't expect him to turn into a conciliatory guy looking for a compromise i still think we should try one. but no one really expects that the more likely scenario i'm afraid is either that putin will be willing to start leveling cities and just turn up the terror and turn up the punishment or perhaps that he will essentially turn this operation into a strangulation strategy you know, he's sitting on those roads where his vehicles are having a hard time moving where but that also means no ukrainian commercial vehicles are getting through. so ukraine's only economic outlet is to the west in poland and that denies it sea access and any kind of trade through

russia or belarus. so basically it's in a position where it can't really do anything more than just try to survive. 2 million as you know have already left their homes and putin has a back up strategy essentially going to a hunkering down economic strangulation around the borders of the country, i don't him to do that, though i think he's going to keep looking for ways to get at kyiv and get at president zelenskyy and hope that the combination of the economic pressure that does continue with an intensification of some kinds of attacks will essentially make the ukrainian people ultimately relent that's my best guess to what he's thinking. >> the condemnation of putin and what he's doing has been swift and fierce coming from the west. it's been on a united front, but putin needs someone to back him up we'd all been hoping this partnership with china maybe xi would look at this and say this is not a situation where i want

tobe defending someone who is doing such horrible things the world is seeing. last night, though, our eunice eun was reporting that the ministry there was talking about how the russian people and the chinese people have an unbreakable friendship they were talking about how chinese media is being ordered to only put forth russian-positive stories on this situation. and this morning bloomberg just ran a headline suggesting china is mulling buying stakes in russian energy and commodity firms. if you're hoping for china to be a peace broker, those are not hopeful signals. >> you're right about that although i've been a little encouraged by a fair amount of information. that's not like russian tv where it's just pure propaganda all the time i'm a little more hopeful china is trying to straddle us and look for some kind of a happy medium where it can be both be putin's friend and putin's

critic and our friend simultaneously i think you're right we're not getting the kind of firm resolute assistance we would like in this situation but quietly i have a hard time believing president xi can be happy about what's going on here for one thing it's going to hurt the global economy and president xi as well and put china under criticism for being a partner as you point out he continues to be so i don't expect miracles from beijing, but i don't know we need miracles. you know a little bit of russian ongoing economic sustenance while the rest of us clamp down, that might be the right formula. i think we're already putting enough sanctions on, and if we're willing to target the russian gas to europe and start doing the kind ofthing germany's declared building more lng terminals then we can presentpute putin with the spe of louisianaing most of his

exports. the amount of gas russia can add in to short-term is pretty modest >> michael, let's say it's been ab positive, he gets the two break away regions and a guarantee ukraine doesn't join nato, number one would that be a mistake because it appeases him and a-mile-per-hour incursion is all right although it's happened in crimea already. and at this point he's already gone so far into the country would that be in his view losing and not getting face and not what he wants anymore. >> first, on how to read putin i think we're all grasping i can he's probably going for a more maximalestoutcome here bu he also knows he's going to sacrifice the economy of his

presidency i don't know he really believes that's easily attainable any longer, so now we have to talk about terms. as you say i hate to see the donbas region go to russia or become independent in the last eight years only part of the donbas was controlled by russian separatists, and that was a russian effort so i don't know if i'd trade on that it would be president zelenskyy's decision i do think ukraine can find find alternatives to nato membership. nato membership wasn't going to happen anyway. in my view it was a bad idea so here getting russian troops off ukrainian soil is the main objective. and if ukraine has to be permanently neutral and we'll

change our own promises if they don't, we will bring ukraine into nato if russia violates this kind of understanding i think that's the field you can envision and russia would have some of the sanctions lifted, we can go back to trying to recover. >> michael, thank you. >> thanks, becky it is just after 7:00 on the east coast, and you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today. a big line-up still to come in the next two hours including the ceo of hess, the ceo mary bara and texas senator ted cruz dow futures right now indicated up about 161 points. the s&p is indicated up about 22

points this morning, and the nasdaq was the biggest loser yesterday, a decline by 480 points, indicated up by 400 this morning. >> we talk a lot about what what's happening over the medium to longer term with some of the trends in solar energy and alternative energy companies, but given the renewed focus on trying to wean much of the world and the u.s. included off some of those fossil fuels, there's been a renewed focus at least in the short to medium term over these solar energy stocks. you're seeing some bigger moves within some of the bigger solar names. just take a look at some of those alternative energy trades because they continue, again, to garner more attention as more and more oil prices go up. it's a dynamic we've seen play out over the course of years now with regard to the popularity or

focus on alternative energy on focus on oil in times when oil prices start to spike. gasoline prices hovering at record highs right now for the u.s. market. also watching what's happening with certain other parts of the market with regard to ride sharing. right now uber shares are up "the wall street journal" says those part of the so-called gig economy are going to take some steps to start a campaign to change the narrative on tilting at least some of the story towards the workers they have that favor tear independent status as opposed to going the union route. you do have some interesting developments over in washington state when lawmakers and uber and lyft have agreed to a compromised set of rules there with things that might set a minimum wage, provide paid sick leave, that kind of thing.

and some of the interesting stock declines that we've seen over the course of this route tied to the russia-ukraine war, r roku, affirm holdings and stitch fix from their highs are some of the most beaten up out there they've lost three quarters of their value since their 52-week highs. there may be bid for some of these things or short covers look to take some profits. by the way, these are just three of it names. go to cnbc.com we've got a great story up there, about ten of the stocks in those tech and tech adjacent industries that have now lost three quarters or more of their values it's an interesting list but gives you some idea some folks out there might be looking to some of these depressed type value stocks cnbc.com has that full story, joe. >> yes, there are some deals,

but the deals in the last couple of weeks have gotten even better, so what looked like a deal two weeks ago wasn't really the deal -- what do you do average in, bullish long-term maybe you try that strategy. >> it's interesting you hear the story more and more -- >> you called that a route, and let's say it's r-o-u-t-e do you use route or route? yeah, route 66, and if it's a route, i think that would help the english language if we made that a guideline thanks, dom. >> you got it, guys. the house of representatives

could vote as soon as today on a bipartisan bill to block russian energy imports and cut trade negotiate negotiations >> congress is rallying to ral around to end normal trade relations with the country the democratic and republican leaders of the committee have said oversea trade have reached an agreement how to move forward. this new resolve comes after the ukraine president made his plea directly to congress during a zoom meeting over the weekend. lawmakers across the spectrum are calling out russia as committing war crimes including killing civilians. the number 2 democrat in the senate dick durbin said the u.s. should not fund russia by buying its oil even if that means higher prices at home.

>> the world including the united states will likely pay more to fill our tanks and heat our homes. we have to be ready for that realty, but that is the price today of defending freedom and democracy. >> congress is also preparing to authorize emergency aid to ukraine. the estimated total is now more than $12 billion that's about double than what the white house had initially requested. and this underscores how quickly the crisis has escalated back over to you >> a couple of things. look, higher prices are here already. the world is putting on its own boycott. companies are moving away because they're being pressured to do so saying they'll not take anymore more russian oil companies. at least western companies are doing this at this point so you're already dealing with the higher prices. the big question will have to be what will president biden do will he sign that if it comes to him? i can understand the direct appeal to congress and make all these members eager to sign-up

and go along with that zelenskyy has also spoken with biden. will that push enough when you're already dealing with higher prices at the pump? >> that seems where this is headed, becky. clearly if there is strong bipartisan support from both chambers of the congress i think it would be difficult for the president not to sign that bill. i think the other question is the administration acts on its own. then you're looking at next week, so time is really of the essence here does the administration feel like it is in a place where it can and is ready to move perhaps along with other countries such as the u.k. and japan and/or is this move in congress really the avenue it's going to enact this ban on russian oil we'll have to wait and see, but there is support in congress for this to happen

>> thank you >> been in the super market? >> yes >> what do you think a pound of bacon costs? i'll tell you $9 200 square feet of aluminum foil >> oh, that's got to be huge >> $15 virgin olive oil $19. >> i thought that was already crazy before >> i do my own things now like george h.w. bush because i'm fascinated >> because you love the price is right. >> i love checking utmyself now and it tells me what it is every time and i'm like sticker shock. coming up the ceos of general motors and pg&e are joining us to talk their new partnership. and later senator ted cruz on the efforts to ban russian oil, aid to ukraine -- not banning it but talking about it -- and

more we're excited to have him for people so excited out there in twitter ndla, yes, he'll be on thankfully, gratefully you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

it's been two years now since workers at many of

america's largest companies have been in offices in person, obviously, due to the covid-19 pandemic more americans are starting now to head back in there, and business leaders are trying to navigate this new normal and build teams with success and endurance. now, in the mountains of vermont spartan founder joe dissena uses innovative tactics to help companies become more resilient than ever. it's premiering tonight at 10:00 p.m. eastern let's take a look at a clip from the show >> i need the last four numbers of the cns emergency call in number you've got 5 seconds >> say it. >> i don't know. >> 4937. everybody rollover one i can't believe they don't know their own emergency phone number this is phone number that's been around for 30 years. you see how it doesn't really have an effect in the office

when you get something wrong and you're not paying attention, right? you want to be in the clean business you got to get dirty. joining us now is joe dissena, spartan founder and ceo. you were an actual retail stockbroker in a different career, joe, and then became an entrepreneur, and spartan is the result of that >> yeah, an institutional broker we covered the banks, derivatives and equities, and i had a picture of a red barn otmy desk for years and i said someday i'm going to get the hell out of there and land it in vermont. >> i watch those things and let's say i was going through one of these really tough training sessions that you give, if i start crying, do i get fired? do i get to go back and be part of the team? what are you looking for to get peoples morale and endurance up, because i think maybe i'd be looking for another job

probably >> joe, you'd never get fired. we'd never fire you. but in all seriousness, people have to do the hard stuff. business is a combat sport most businesses fail that's the reality after 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, most businesses are gone. and the reason they're gone is because as entrepreneurs and teams we get tired, we get bored, we get broken and so our job at spartan is to teach people to be mentally fit, to give them strength, give them resilience and the best way to do that is through physical challenges, tough challenges and that's what we do on the farm the farm is unrelenting. >> i mean, i can see how that would, indeed, translate because it -- good things aren't -- what is it? hard things aren't easy -- no. >> good things don't come easy >> you can translate adversity

and overcoming adversity in other areas to what happens in business that's the general theme >> let me ask you this, could you imagine if we took some folks battling in the ukraine right now and brought them to the u.s. and say, hey, you have to run a business but it's going to be hard it's going to be difficult to make payroll, your competitors are going to go across the street they wouldn't have an issue because of what they've just gone through so if we put people through hard things and build what we call resiliency data points and a place to go through in your brain when the going gets tough, you don't complain anymore like when your front line worker maybe screws up a milk shake they're selling or you're having a tough time this week because like i said a competitor moved in across the street and stole one of your employees. no big deal. i'm not getting shot at. >> teamwork, i can imagine if you can lean on someone else for support or empathy or, you know, just being in the same boat. >> well, that -- the trust

factor when getting in the same boat and working together doing hard stuff, the trust factor is tremendous, right? you build this relationship with those around you that's unbreakable. i learned it on wall street, a lot of folks were doing the dinners and they were doing the drinks, and i was taking people to do hard things together and what i found was not only did i build a tremendous relationship with my teammates, but with my customers and future customers, those bonds were unbreakable. we did more business >> you'd like to do the whole fortune 500. let's do the russell everyone could -- there's no sector of the economy where a business couldn't benefit from this in your view? >> every business. we've had the teslas we've had the googles. we've had the facebooks, the nikes, the reboks, go down the list, they've all been to the farm i've been doing this for 22

years, but now we get to show the big girls and guys what they're doing on the farm. >> we already talked about that. and like i said if i cried, you'd just try to build me up and try to rehabilitate me, right? you'd try to use those ashes to make me a phoenix, kind of >> you would be a phoenix rising from -- you're a phoenix now, joe. >> all right, thanks, joe. watching tonight the new prime time series no retreat, business boot camp premieres tonight at 10:00 p.m. eastern on cnbc when we come back we're going to check on the markets and talk about what investors can expect in today's trading session. and breaking news in the last hour. energy giant shell announcing it intends to immediately stop piing russian crude oil on the spot market. it says it will not renew term contracts either and says it will begin a phased withdrawal

from russian petroleum products, pipeline gas and lng and shut stations in russia this is coming after great pressure after shell did pi some russian oil over the weekend we're going to be speaking to the ceo of hesans d get his take on the oil prices and situation in ukraine "squawk box" will be right back.

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powering possibilities™. welcome back to "squawk box. very rough start to the year for stocks let's run through some of the names, and their performances since the start of the year. here are the bottom five performing stocks. in this case it's in the dow nike is down 25% home depot which was up 56% last year is down 22% so far. salesforce, 3 m and jp morgan rounding out the worst performers >> the dow right now is 11.2% off its all-time high, so obviously you're going to see some stocks that are down that much >> in the s&p digital platform and design company epam systems is down nearly 75% paypal and moderna down 50%

followed by metaplatefirms and netflix. that's crazy that's a multiple contraction. i can't imagine business has really gotten that much different, maybe for moderna a little bit and then there's the nasdaq 100. many of the names similar to those you just saw in the s&p. zoom down 41% year to date and we told you earlier that nickel's been -- the trading in nickel has been suspended by the lme after the price doubles, and that isn't yet taking a toll on the electric vehicle makers, which are all higher >> lmv has actually suspended contracts due for delivery on march 9th of this year so this is going to cause some big ripple effects, and as phil was pointing out earlier every one of these ev makers says don't worry, we'll be covered, but that was the same sort of story we heard when it came to chips. there will be clearly be issues and ripple effects

maybe tesla will get better but there's going to be a shortage and whatever they do get, they're going to pay a lot more for it >> that was a good point there's speculators and people using the future markets to guarantee they'll have what they need, and you can't punish -- you can't worry you're giving the speculators a break when you're halting when you've got to keep the suppliers viable coming up italy cracking down on russianally garks. we'll have an update after the break. i want to assign that story to robert frank just to get a cool spin on it >> it would be very wise to do that >> the futures right now, that's a little low of a rebound than we had at the start of the show. 200 now on the dow which is closing in correction territory yesterday. who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors,

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the russian oligarch crack down continuing and so the robert frank's coverage of all of this. he's got more on this front right now. good morning >> good morning, becky well, italian authorities seizing over $150 million worth of yachts and villas over the

weekend. as well as a $19 million compound in sardenia the question now what to do with all this stuff the sanctions only prevent the oligarchs from transferring or removing their assets. they remain the legal owners the only reason they were able to impound these boats is they were about to sale to a safer port in order to evade the sanctions. so the owners are still responsible for paying the yacht crews and any staff, but if the government can't collect funds from the oligarchs to pay these bills the governments themselves may end up paying the bills. that can add up to six or seven figures a month just for a super yacht. governments can only actually take title to an asset if the oligarch is charged with a specific crime so that could be money laundering or corruption, and the asset has to be tied directly to the crime itself

proving all of that in court can take years if and when an asset is ever actually sold proceeds usually go to law enforcement. a new bill in the house called yachts for ukraine act would send proceeds to ukraine for aid. so far they haven't seized anything in the u.s. and it could be years before we see actual benefit if any. >> in the meantime the government are paying for the upkeep of this do they just sit there at the dock in the meantime >> they do they're lashed to the docks and they're locked and in some cases the owners can't get access, so the owners can say, look, i i can't get sack ses so i'm not going to pay the bills. oftentimes if it's stuck in the port, the port itself has to pay the bills. they can't get money from the

oligarch because they're not al allowed to get money from the oligarchs through the sanctions. these yachts can take millions of dollars a month to maintain, and so it's all stuck in a legal limbo until there's a crime or until the sanctions themselves are lifted >> unlike that ukrainian engineer who sank the one yacht -- >> just tried to sink it right, that's another solution, just sink it >> what happens in the case of real estate? if the same situations were kind of applied, if they weren't paying the real estate taxes generally, if you don't pay your real estate taxes that's a good way for the government to just foreclose on it. >> the taxes are an issue and the governments may have to pay those in the meantime because of the sanctions issue. the staff, the maintenance, these homes are very elaborate some of them are massive especially in the english countryside, the italian villas, south of france, these are homes with staffs of 50, 80 people,

and they'll have to be maintained maybe not at the sam level -- >> can rent them out to airbnb >> 50 to 80, what's an average yacht, maybe 20 people of staff? >> one boat had a staff of 96 people now, average, yeah, that's a 500 foot boat. let's say 120, 150 foot boat that's 10 or 12 people tops. >> just wondering, you know, just in case if i think about that yeah, i could get a boston whaler maybe i don't know anyway, thanks and i'd be the staff >> used. >> used. thanks, robert soon to come the ceo of hess joins us to talk soaring prices.

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oil price spikes causing recessions as one of the tried and true one-two punches of economic history so are we headed there again this time senior economics reporter steve liesman looks at some of the similarities and differences this time around lucky i knew who our senior economics reporter was because they left that name out. it's the 7:00 a.m. hour, but i immediately came up with it. big bucks. that's why that's why >> you are smarter at 7:00 a.m., joe, than most people are at 9:00 that's for sure. >> that's right. either 9:00. >> joe, this is really interesting because this oil price spike has all the trappings of the kind that can cause a recession. it's been really sharp and very sudden, but economists so far who i'm talking a lot to, they're reluctant to put negative numbers in front of those u.s. growth forecasts and call for a session

the reason, i hate to say this, it may be different this time. for one, this is the first oil price spike since the u.s. oil deficit has evaporated, and energy imports and exports are roughly balanced so instead of sending those big checks overseas with the price spikes, that reduces growth from bigger trade deficits, the bulk of the extra money will stay in the u.s. michael gapen tells me oil shock has negative effects on consumption but they are less pronounced than they would have been in past decades gapen points out the share of household spending on gasoline it's nearly halved since the '60s americans are going to be angry at the price at the pump but ultimately not going to be as angry as their parents or grandparents were. the speed of the hike is what

call sudden economic dislocation and some pain, but the big way these spikes hurt is endurable goods, and the u.s. is so far down in auto sales because of the pandemic and supply shocks that sales are going to rise almost whatever happens with oil. so there's a massive hurdle for the economy for high oil prices and the commodity price you're talking about, but the economics of the price surge are different this time, the negative effects, they could be different as well. joe? >> all right, steve, yeah, we have seen this movie before and i don't know, you know, why we're surprised. do you that maybe you're going to see some type of a slow down i mean it really i've seen numbers staggering about how much this could cost people. $2,000 a more year for gas >> it is correct and, look, you can't minimize the pain to low income and moderate income households for sure, but the overall economics and the accounting of the money is going to be very different.

if you look at that chart, joe, that shows we have no oil deficit, we have no energy deficit right now, it just means we're not going to send -- well, we are going to send the checks to saudi arabia. they're going to be collecting big checks, but it's what happens to our oil companies and whether they reinvest that will determine how much we get back of that. >> that, really, though, it is taking money out of the consumer pockets, the consumers get mad, they get angry and vote with their pocketbook it may not kill our gdp but definitely has severe implications and that's what politicians are watching, too. >> i think politicians are watching it. i haven't heard it yet but someone might be talking about a wind fall oil profits tax or something like that. >> i saw you tweeting yesterday. >> well, we'll see i'm not obviously calling for it, i'm just saying you're right, becky, there are political ramifications for this and by the way also dramatic

regional ones, right we have parts of this country big oil production and energy producing parts and parts that are not. they're the users. but it's going to be interesting to watch, you're right, becky, the gdp and whether or not this ultimately -- you get it back through the investment channel of the oil companies right now what's really interesting is the people you're interviewing they're not talking about big spending increases, so we'll see if that changes over time, because then what's going to happen are massive share backs, massive dividend increases. >> they keep slaying discipline but with wti at $122 a barrel we'll see how long discipline lasts. let's check out the futures. we've been watching that closely after the dow was down 800 points yesterday the s&p yesterday was down by 128 points and it's indicated up

by 13. nasdaq was off by 482 points right now it's indicated up by 22 let's bring in the senior investment strategist at edward jones. and mona, you've got to be earning your money this week, watching what's happening with the volatility what are you telling people when they call you up >> absolutely. it's been quite a week and quite a year thus far, actually. certainly what we're seeing in russia and ukraine, we're saying, yes, it has stagflationary prices. here comes a crisis that raises oil prices, that raises food and grain prices, has some cooperation of food and grain supply issues. there is a differential between different parts of the globe, and when you look at the u.s., and steve alluded to that very well, the u.s. is not only less exposed from an energy and oil perspective we also came into this crisis on better footing overall. we do think gdp growth was

looking 3, 3.5% this year. this oil spike if it is sustained may take 50 to 100 basis points off of it, if it can remainp this $100 to $12 level. excess savings are still in a $2.5 trillion range every the post pandemic stimulus we've seen in the last couple of years. retail sales, personal consumption, even the jobs report on friday all very positive perhaps as that omicron variant was fading as well it is a different story in europe their markets have been down 5 to 10% in the past week. in the u.s. we have seen markets down 3% to 4%. some moves in credit spreads but not as dramatic. generally when we think about those flight to safety plays

we've been seeing perhaps the u.s. is now bucketed in a safe haven asset class. >> the economy has been great. people are worried about what's to come especially when we're seeing what that means for theflation in the next 10 to 12 months, what that means for the inflation perspective. you've got both the dow and s&p in correction territory, the nasdaq closing in bear market territory yesterday. is that what you're seeing you think it's been too much of a discount >> markets don't like uncertainty and there are two overhangs still. i think the fed was one overhead and certainly the crisis in russia and ukraine is the second one. we've got a little more clarity fromthe fed.

but, you know, if our base case comes out to be true and we're $125 oil, perhaps more production comes online either through removal of iranian sanctions or production increases then we are in a scenario that perhaps we're at slower growth but gnat recessionary levels. if there is a tail risk is that we see oil get to $150, $200 levels and stay there in a sustained way then i think we're looking at demand destruction. probably 2023 is when we're looking at the downturn, but that is a tail risk, certainly not the base case. >> what if oil stays at the levels it's at today for the next one or two years to come? >> i think over time that does erode demand here in the u.s. as

well, but probably not tothe point we're looking at negative gdp growth perhaps if we were at a lower baseline to begin with, then you are looking at possibilities of really eroding growth here in the u.s. but we're really starting from a baseline of 3, 3.5%. so that's really why we're a little more cushioned from this oil shock. keep in mind steve's point earlier as well, as a consuming nation we've been less dependent on energy and oil. over time we've become more efficient, our uses more organized, et cetera so that is a positive as well. in the near term there will be people feeling it, low income wage earners will certainly feel it more. but i think we're coming in with more momentum. >> right it's a regressive tax and you have to wonder what that means just for social dynamics coming up an update from ukraine on the humanitarian

efforts and the ceo of company hess is going to join ryan sullivan from the energy summit taking place live in houston all right. "squawk box" will be right back. >> you're smart. >> mm-hmm.

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the latest on russia's invasion of ukraine, nbc's molly hunter joins us now. >> reporter: we're watching two possible humanitarian corridors. this is the fourth day in a row we've woken up thinking possibly those in besieged towns will be able to get out. cease-fires is always fragile. it requires two warring parties to agree with a neutral body to facilitate those talks i'm going to take you first to sumy last night 21 people were killed there, joe and this morning we saw 20 buses start to make their way out of the city with civilians and foreign students now, the plan is for another corridor of buses to start as of right now and it is almost 3:00 local time that cease-fire in that humanitarian corridor appears to be hoeing. whether or not humanitarian aid

will head back in we're waiting to hear. and mariupol, it is a city of 450,000. according to the red cross 200,000 people desperately need to get out cease-fires all failed because of russian shelling according to the icrc what we know right now there are eight trucks and buses with medical supplies going in. and we're hoping civilians will get on those buses and come out. everyone wants to come west to where i am, to the relative safety of lviv and hopefully head out of this country if they want to like 2 million people have to other western european countries, to poland, to safety outside of this country. joe? >> molly, for the most part are the corridors actually safe places i've heard that -- that some of them were mined. do russians want people,

refugees to have same passage or not? for the vast majority it is safe or not >> i think right now in the northeast it is apparently holding except for one incident, but if you look at the last four days and the russians have shelled those humanitarian corridors. one of the routes out of mariupol yesterday was mined and you've got to look back to recent russian acmilitary activity in syrian every time they agreed to a humanitarian corridor and cease-fire it was just another chance for the russians to rearm and plan their next offensive. i have no idea whether or not these are going to hold. fingers crossed everyone is hoping they will, and we'll certainly keep you posted. >> all right, molly, thank you and be safe. and maybe there's war crimes being -- maybe there's war crimes being committed we've been seeing a growing number of companies stop doing

business in russia the latest is yum, the owner of kfc and pizza hut announcing it will suspend all investment and restaurant development in russia while it acontinues to assess additional options the fast food chain adds it's going to redirect all profits from operations in russia to humanitarian efforts >> the bigger questions are what happens to mcdonald's because mcdonald's owns many more of its restaurants in russia, but the other ones are mostly franchisees so not as much to their bottom line. also wonder what happens to coca-cola and pepsi. >> other networks playing jane quincy's comments from the georgia situation and his zero-tolerance for that law versus the reaction with this. >> the reality is it's a much more difficult decision for some companies than others. because if you're talking about cutting off 9% of your sales it may take you a couple days

>> if it's cheap -- >> the governor said we're trying to make sure we're shutting down all business we do with russian companies i said what business do you do, he said we're looking into it. coming up the ceo of oil producer hess joins us and later jeff currie going to join us to discuss his latest call on oil icpres he has a new note out this morning. we'll be right back. nothing was nothing until it was something. it all begins with creating a brand voice.

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more than ever we're watching oil the this morning right now you can see crude is up again over 120, wti and ice brent getting closer to that 130 level we briefly hit. let's get to brian sullivan who's been in houston at the conference he joins us with a special guest. >> good morning. john hess, ceo of the hess corporation. oil's at 122 what's it going to take to stop this upward climb in the price of oil and gas >> yeah, there's panic in the market, brian. basically the ukrainian crisis pots a spotlight the oil market was already tight before the ukrainian crisis. inventories were drawing eight quarters in a row. inventories were about 200 million barrels less than pre-covid levels, so the market was tight, not much cushion.

spaer spare capacities 2 to 300 million barrels a day. basically the oil market now is in the intensive care unit and we need to act the u.s. and iea need to announce the release of 120 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserves this month and commit to another 120 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserves -- >> 240 million >> 120 this month, 120 next month. last week they announced 60 million barrels, well intended but too little it's only about 4% of the world's petroleum stock. so basically by doing that you put a cushion in the system, and, you know, you need to remember and everybody does the iaea was formed to deal with shocks and disruptions after the

embargo by kissinger in 1974 >> seems like they've been caught off -- >> 100%, and they've got to get ahead of it. you all talk on the show all the time we acted very quickly to covid to lower interest rates to avoid an economic recession. the united states and the iaea need to act quickly to avoid a recession quickly coming on us >> i think there's the big question is when was this demand disruption going to hit? when do we get to a price point, a paying price point for the consumer that says i'm not driving or i'm going to cut back my driving or i'm going to afford the plane ticket? doesn't feel like we're there yet. >> you pointed out on the show that petroleum is in everything from the glasses you wear to the jackets that we wear, and even to aluminum, the cans we drink out of so 8% of the world's gdp is

energy, so it goes through the entire system. i think it's starting to hit europe they were paying the equivalent of $300 a barrel to $600 a barrel, so basic industries are starting to shutdown in europe people are staying home more because they can't afford the petrol you're going to see that in the united states and actually i was on yesterday and the bite is starting to happen there >> you had said in your panel yesterday that you want effectively wall street to bless you and the other publicly traded oil companies to pump more >> yes >> what is that -- i mean i know what that means, but why do you need wall street to sort of say this is okay, otherwise you think they'll crush your stock >> well, both wall street and government officials need to realize that oil and gas are going to be needed for decades

to come, and they're essential to having a smooth and affordable energy transition >> the key challenge, brian, is investment we're not investing enough the iaea does an energy outlook every year, and every scenario more oil and gas is needed, and a reasonable estimate is about $450 billion a year to keep global oil and gas supply meeting global demand. the last five years we've been under that number so it's key. yes we need to invest foreign energy but also need to invest more in global oil and gas to have an affordable, just and secure energy transition you've got to remember the u.s. is energy depenindependent so w ought to play to that strength now they're saying we want more oil and gas. we need to have the green light

to invest more in our business and our production over the year is going to grow 30% >> becky >> thanks, brian it's good to see you oil companies would like cover from the administration so you don't see coming like exon mobile where a small shareholder can push this and say this is what we want. is it the case markets are going to cure this at some point there are going to be new investors that come in at this point, maybe new investors that have a stronger voice about what they'd like to see i know we keep hearing this key code word but when you see oil north of $120 a barrel, it's one thing to be disciplined but another to miss an opportunity

i understand your points entirely wanting the administration to commit to longer term issues so you could actually deploy the capital, but isn't it just a case where you're going to be getting different shareholders now >> i think the key, becky, and it's a great question, is it's a matter of shareholder capitalism and stakeholder capitalism and when you're running a business you have to make high returns for your share holers. it's also how you do it, how you deal with the communities, how you deal with the environmental footprint. i think the key thing and one of the things our industry has to do a better job of is educating people so we have climate literacy, energy literacy and economic literacy i think too many people were just focused on the climate, not enough on the energy and the economics. >> climate literacy, you, you

need -- there's some work to do there in my view john, so you said flat out there are certain politicians that their preference was to leave hydrocarbons in the ground and you femt that pressure, and that's unequivalent from you the ceo of hess. >> yes, and it weighed on certain investors as well. certainly in europe and you're seeing some of the united states, and again, you know, we need to get to net zero by 2050, which is a tall order. but at the same time as the world grows from 7 billion people to 9 billion people we need more energy the executive director of the iaea has been very clear, more energy is good, more emissions are bad. >> it may have started with the government, but then it goes to esg, and then esg convinces shareholders i think what's in their best interest or tries to, but then i think what about a black rock that votes -- it's got etfs and it becomes the

shareholder itself, and whomever is ceo or emperor of black rock decides what they want to do with their etf shares, and they may be all in on esg and now we're in this pickle isn't that something that shouldn't be happening in. >> yes, it shouldn't be happening, and i think people are getting more educated now. the prices at the pump were up, heating costs were up and we need to have balance oil and gas are going to be here for decades to come, and we need to keep investing in it while we keep moving ahead on technology and investing in clean energy again, it's a dual approach and not either/or and people need to get educated on that >> we spoke with the deputy of secretary yesterday, and we could him are you going to bless wall street as well.

just pick up the phone and call the john hess' of the world and say climate change, we've got to deal with that but for now please get more oil. important conversation, important time, scary time as well so we appreciate your call and voice. >> thanks for the opportunity. >> becky, joe? >> brian, thank you. these conversations that you've been having have been just fascinating, listening to every single word. thank you. in the meantime it's just after 8:00 a.m. eastern on the east coast, and you are watching "squawk box. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today. the futures have been a little higher although you've seen the nasdaq turn lower. we were getting a little bit of a bid earlier but now it's indicated down by about 3.5 points the dow which was down is up by

about 68 in the meantime we're going to be hearing from senator ted cruz also gm's mary barra will be here along with the pg&e ceo patti poppe to talk about their plan to allow technology from evs to power homes what's caught your focus at this point? >> right now the retail trade is very much in focus, becky, and especially as earnings season still rolls on dick's sporting goods is out this morning with better than expected profits and sales and sales growth at locations grew, and the reason that's important is because that's higher than it was in the fourth quarter pre-pandemic also the headlines coming out of the wall street journal visa and

mastercard the journal citing sources familiar that both of these companies are preparing to raise credit card fees for many large customers. that's helping to provide some tail wind for the stock in the premarket trade. the check on our most popular tickers from yesterday's full trading session, maybe no surprise oil is near the top of the list it is the number two most searched ticker among the single stock tickers very popular searches bed, bath and beyond, tesla and apple as well. the ten year treasury continues to be the number one most searched on our website. i'll send things back over to you. >> right now let's get to the latest on ukraine and washington's response to russia's invasion. kayla taushe is here with more

on that. >> there is one peaceful departure from the city of sumy that has been reportedch the united nations now saying 2 million civilians have fled ukraine in less than two weeks ukraine's foreign ministry says russia continues to violate a prior cease-fire shelling an evacuation corridor and stalling eight trucks and 30 buses ready to deliver humanitarian aid. in a televised address president zelenskyy again slamming the west for refusing to defend its airspace as russian troops step up their use of air strikes, rockets and missiles as ground efforts remain stalled u.s. lawmakers are preparing to ban russian energy and allow new tariff on other items while europe is expected to unleash a new wave of sanctions on russian oligarchs and banks in belarus while the bloc is too dependent on russian oil and gas to ban it

for now, it is planning to cut that dependency by 80% by the end of this year here emphasis the secretary of state antony blinken in estonia. >> there is i think a significant not only opportunity but imperative in this moment to finally move off of for many countries your independence on russian energy because russia uses it as a weapon. and we're seeing countries respond to that. >> as the u.s. bolsters nato defenses across europe the pentagon is deploying 500 additional troops bringing the total stationed there to 100,000. >> thank you very much when we come back we have the ceos of gm and pg&e. they're going to join us in an exclusive interview on electric vehicles powering homes and

businesses plus senator ted cruz on latest out of washington. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc

what the world needs now... is people. people who see energy a little bit differently. where a switch to cleaner power means a more resilient grid... ...with renewables and gas power providing energy whenever it's needed. because seeing a more sustainable world isn't far in the future. we're building it... now. ge. building a world that works. bloomberg is reporting that the u.s. plans to ban russian

oil as soon as today the report says that the ban would include oil, lng and coal and would be enacted without the participation of our european allies and i assume that the president's onboard. we wouldn't just be saying that it's a deal. congress will do it but i didn't know if he had signed on >> and by the way the oil market has kind of anticipated this would be the case. >> kind of looks like it, yes, as we close in on 1:30 again breaking news also this morning gm and california utility pg&e will jointly develop technology to allow electric vehicles to power homes. phil lebeau joins us now with some special guests. >> this is a really interesting story and i'm joined by mary barra. explain to my how long it might

be before my hummer ev or my si sylva rodo ev will be able to power my vehicle >> we're going to be testing and piloting this summer and hope to actually have customers by the end of the year able to do exactly what you said. bidirectional charging will put the vehicle and help when there's a power outage or additional demand to really help supply energy and keep everybody -- keep everybody having the energy they need to live their lives >> key here is that it's communication with the vehicle it'd be thing for you guys to send a notification out to a homeowner, what you guys are talking about doing is essentially making smart vehicles on a smart grid where

the communication happens i don't need to be involved, correct? >> automatically and there's like this value stack for electric vehicles that i don't think people fully appreciate yet the first is obviously decarboniz decarbonizing transportation, number one then you stack on the resiliency play, and on a peak summer day imagine being able to leverage the fleet of electric vehicles in california in fact in my service yooir alone 1 in 5 electric vehicles sold in alone are sold in my service area. >> we were talking before you guys came out here on set, there seems to be -- and you hear this all the time from people the grid is not ready for electric vehicles and what are we going to do when everybody buys electric vehicles and it's 2028 and now we've got power outages or problems with the power in different areas. what is the state of the grid, at least the grid pg&e is

working with in terms of more people being able to plug in their vehicle at home or whatever >> first and foremost the grid needs more electric vehicles in the pg&e service area we have 6,600 megawatts of capacity today that today just draw from the grid but because of the partnership with general motors enabling those cars to actually -- >> an additional source. >> yes it's actually mini power plants driving all the over the state how about put the power where the people are and we're excited about that >> i want to ask you what the we're seeing with nickel today because it's so important to bat battery cells, battery packs it's one of the key components there. they've suspended trading because of the spike in prices are you worried about the supply of nickel that everybody is making commitments to build more evs over the next decade and at

this point the supply is not there to meet the goal of the entire industry. >> i'm focused on what general motors because we have very aggressive goals to lead in evs by middecade we've been working hard to have the secure supply and precious metals to achieve those goals and more what we see is there's continued interest and what's happening today i think there's going to be continued interest in driving the adoption of electric vehicles >> when you say short and mid-term, what are we talking? the next three to five years >> over that horizon, yes. >> go ahead. i started to cut you off there we're working deep in the supply chain to make sure we're covered. but our supply chain team is just fenum nal, so they have been working ahead to make sure we have secure supply. >> i don't want to beat a dead

horse but adam jones who you know welg out with a note yesterday saying the auto industry has pie in the sky expectations on the amount of evs they're going to be building and yet they all say the same thing, our supply is locked in, we're good this is a game of musical chairs somewhere along the line somebody does not have the supply is it your sense that it's the big players who are okay right now and perhaps it's the startups who may not be able to get in with the supply on whether it's nickel or lithium, whatever the metal is? >> i think we don't have a lot of transparency in what people are saying and they've secured the terms and conditions are done, and that's our focus to secure the plan we have which is pretty aggressive rollout and a

complete portfolio because that's what customers have told us they want >> in your state gas is well over $5 a gallon you already have a big adoption of evs out there does this spur evs in terms of new vehicles i think the latest add i saw was 9.5% in the fourth quarter >> i think when the full line-up is available, that silver rodo, the hummer are going to be pretty popular vehicles in northern california. there are some parts of the state that have not fully adopted electric, so that's going to be a big enabler. the governor's ambition is an ambition we're excited about so we want to make sure we're ready and get the full value from the the entire fleet of vehicles to both provide resiliency on the power outage of the effects of

climate change are real in california we're living them. to have that resiliency play and supply power to the grid we can't wait >> how much different is this situation than earlier in your career than it was in 2008 or going back further are you going back to the previous playbook in terms of saying what work then or do you look at the market and say it's much more difficult because the vehicles are fuel eifficient >> we're doing both but we are seeing a different customer and portfolio of vehicles that are much more fuel efficient we're evaluating all those things it depends for how long how high but right now we're seeing a pretty resilient customer. evs will be the ultimate solution, and that's why we're

working so fast to get that full port folio out there so we're excited to get those products out there >> are you still confident you can hold some of those target prices, what you're planning on charging for an ev given the spike in metal prices and really all commodities right now? >> we constantly see ups and downs in commodity head winds. so we're going to work to hold those prices and just keep improving the whole process so we can serve the customer at an affordable level >> one last question, the chip crisis i know it continues -- it is like, you know, the pest in the background it continues to be there even though things are gradually improving. does it linger through the rest of the year for the auto

industry >> there still is more volatility than we would have expected i think there's a challenge to next year. >> and you two work together for years. people don't know that >> we sure did 15 years at general motors i think it's no accident our paths continue to connect. >> who called who? did you call her or you call her and say, look, we need to bidirectional charging going on. >> i called mary and said we have a safety issue in california and need a resilient play and mary's team answered that call and ever since that day our team has beenworking shoulder to shoulder to find solutions for california to leverage benefits of evs in a community ready it power them. >> guys, they're the first guests here in the mother ship

>> i thought that might be the case worthy guests. and by the way, i love the back story of the two of them working together for years yeah, to know how these things work behind the scenes and watch mentoring relationships. phil, thank you. and thanks to patti and to mary. when we come back we're live with texas senator ted cruz. we'll talk about the u.s. response to russia's invasion of ukraine and the move we're just hearing the u.s. may move to ban russian oil imports as "early today. later this hour goldman sachs commoditi commodities expert jeff currie we'll get you his updated looks for both 2022 and 2023 stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc

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. coming up, texas senator ted cruz joins the show. he wants an immediate embargo on russian oil and gas, and we just heard we may get that. the can't miss interview is next stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

breaking news this hour, bloomberg is reporting that president biden is set to ban u.s. imports of russian oil as soon as today. our next guest is floating a bill in washington to wean the u.s. off of foreign energy and joining us now senator ted

cruz oftexas he unveiled his energy freedom act on friday. and it would be different than what we're doing now how, senator? >> well, joe, good morning good to be with you. the energy freedom act would be dramatically different from what we're doing now. it would expedite the application to export liquid natural gas. it would expedite permitting it would speed up the leasing both onshore and offshore. you know, when joe biden came in the very first week in office the he shutdown the keystone pipeline and destroyed 11,000 high paying jobs including 8,000 union jobs he immediately froze new leases both on federal land onshore and federal land offshore. it really is striking, in 2019 the united states became a net energy exporter. we are an oil and gas super power and under joe biden last

year for the first time since then and the result of biden's presidency has been enemies like america are all getting stronger, richer, more aggressive, hostile because the president is simultaneously weakening their ability to produce energy >> the biden administration are pikers compared -- go to davos and you'll hear top down the most urgent emergency is climate change versus nukes, take your pick, versus everything else going on in the world. so we're actually behind europe, so this has been going on for a while. what would you do to change the

zeitgeist of just this green frenzy the entire globe is involved in not just the biden administration >> joe, it's important to understand the rhetoric of the far left, they don't actually believe it it's not actually about the environment. if the only thing you cared about was the environment, let's say you didn't care at had about the jobs, inflation, you just cared about inflation or you just cared about the environment, on that metric the biden administration is a disaster why? when you shutdown the keystone pipeline it's not like the canadians just leave it. instead they put it on ships and ship it. when you shutdown production in the united states it's not like the rest of the world suddenly

ceases producing cars and airplanes. all that production is dirtier, pollutes more and emits more co2. the effect of joe biden, the effect of the greens in germany has been more pollution and more co2 admitted into the environment. what they're really trying to do is it's a rational, emotional response the biden administration wants to destroy u.s. energy production, and i've got to say this past week has illustrated it powerfully. go to nicolas maduro, someone who murders and tortures his own citizens and begged them to pule you see biden administration this week with iran trying to

have the and it's bizarre this administration wants russia, venezuela to produce more oil and at the same time destroy jobs here in america i think a lot of people are seeing the foolishness of it you mentioned biden imposing an embargo on russian oil i think finally that's the right thing to do. the next step needs to be work to get europe to do the same thing, to wean themselves from russian oil and gas. now, the way to do that is to have alternative sources or the obvious is the united states the united states has six pending applications right now, prenzdential leadership would be joe biden pulling out a pen and approving all six of them and saying to europe you need to follow our lead, cut off russian oil and dpas and we'll supply

you, others will supply you but the way to stop putin is he leads a petrol, and he's retired asked all of his revenue comes from the sale of oil and dpas. if you cut that off, that's how you stop the war on europe, but at least so far biden has not been serious about doing that. >> senator, there have been a lot of people who looked at china and thought china could be the one to broker some sort of deal because that partnership has been a strong one. the concern this morning came when there was a concern in bloomberg. they had a tough time talking about how the friendship and

china would like to cooperate with europe when it comes to ukraine as well. are they trying to play to both sh sides. >> as we look overthe next hundred years china is a far more powerful adversary than russia putin is ournomy, a bad guy, a dictator, but china has a much stronger economic engine and force behind it. >> do we treat china like an enemy? it's pretty confusing. >> so but china is threatening to invade taiwan, and if you look at this war in europe, becky, it's really the result of two mistakes the biden administration did number one, the catastrophic withdrawal from afghanistan, and that disaster was so bad that every enemy of america from

china to russia to iran to north korea, they looked to washington, took the demand and measure of the oval office and unfortunately, came to the conclusion president biden was weak and feckless and ineffective. and at the same time at the time laz yore the odds of russia invading ukraine have risen ten fold and the odds of china invading taiwan has risen ten fold the second mistake the administration did is they waived sanctions on russia and putin in particular on nord stream 2 i authored the sanctions on strort stream 2 putin was using to enable. president trumpsigned my sanctions into law, and it stopped putin's pipeline the day those sanctions were signed. joe biden waived those sanctions. he essentially surrendered to

putin. becky, germany was wrong, and germany was unhappy when president biden signed by sanctions legislation, but we stopped the pipeline and the reason biden waived the sanctions, gave this gift to putin is because germany urged them to do so. i'll tell you this weekend we had a video call with zelenskyy, he told us on that call if america had sanctioned nordstream 2 last year, putin would not have invaded this war is caused by the political mistake of the biden kmus that at least so far they haven't indicated they're willing to change course >> i've noticed people on a

certain side are looking for a bump in the president's approval ratings, and he's gotten one in some polls based on i think what we've seen since the war started. maybe europe we're going back and looking in hindsight about all the things that have should have been done differently the first rule is do no harm, the hippocratic oath i don't know, do you think we need a no-fly zone he got all of our allies onboard, pretty ptough sanction. we're seeing the effects once it started would you have done anything differently than what president biden and the administration had done so far >> very much so. as i said this war was called by biden's weakness first in

afghanistan -- >> i know. let me ask you a question. >> what would you have done differently once it started? >> all right, let me answer your question we should have imposed the sanctions required by nord stream 2 last year. i've introduce tds legislation in congress to make those sanctions permanent. putin doesn't these those sanctions are real putin believes once the crisis passes biden is going to let him turn on nord stream 2. number two, impose massive sanctions. the sanctions biden put in the first place, biden exempted oil and gas. that is what is funding this russian war. number three, we need to focus

in particular in ensuring the ukrainians can defend themselves the problem with a no-fly zone is you've got american pilots engaging with russian pilots when i spoke to zelenskyy this weekend he said his number one priority is fighter jets because the russians have control of the rare, and there are fighter jets available. for example, poland has a number of russian migs, and i can tell you i met with a senior official of the biden state department last night and you need to be clear to poland and other allies, provide those fighter jets, let the ukrainian defend themselves

biden right now we've seen half measure after half measure and to date the biden administration has been tougher on american oil and gas production than they have been on russian oil and gas production that doesn't make any sense. >> you -- in the obama administration i think the noeg there's an unstable government in ukraine or even too close to russian point. the trump administration i hear republicans say they sent arms to ukraine, but it wasn't a lot. it was kind of almost a token. did you vote to do that or vote against sending weapons to ukraine during the trump administration >> there have been different periods. to be honest, there have been enough votes i don't remember each of the

votes, but what i can tell you is early in the obama administration you had a puppet government who basically worked for putin. the ukrainian people rose up and had a revolution in the maydan square the the response, the people of ukraine want to be with america, want to be with europe, and we saw the government rise up that was a democratically elected gump that wanted today be allies with america that's part of why putin and russia were so i can tell you at that claim what i was addict vaing for we provide lethal aid to ukraine. as you know barack obama wouldn't do it he was sending them literally

blan blankets and teddy bears obama refused to provide lethal military weapons to deal with this and under biden we have been -- once this war started we have been providing some military aid. what poland is saying is they will provide the migs to ukraine if the united states commits to bacfiller it covid 16. and they're dragging their feet because there are other players in europe counseling weakness. and if history teaches us anything it's that appeasement doesn't work and susurrendering only encourages more aggression.

we need strength and not weakness, and we need strength tempered with wisdom >> maybe doing the oil side of things if the reports of the embargo are true i don't know you may have to wait for someone new in the oval office to sign that piece of legislation i would imagine that you're proposing, but you never know thank you. >> thank you, joe. when we come back, oil authority jeff currie from goldman sachs will help us understand the impact of americans banned ofrom russian oil. stay tuned yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots.

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coming up, what's going to happen to the price of oil when the u.s. bans russian crude, which may be in the process of doing? we're expecting to get word of that this morning. and goldman sachs one of the best, jeff currie joins us nt ex to explain stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc ♪ red roses too ♪ ♪ i see them bloom ♪ ♪ for me and you ♪ ♪ and i think to myself ♪

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oil prices extending their gains this hour. you now have wti up at $125 a

barrel, 124.99 president biden is apparently set to announce a ban on russian energy imports separately in a new note this morning, goldman sachs saying the global economy could be in for its largest supply shock in two years. goldman is raising its forecast to $135 a barrel joining us right now is one of the analysts behind that call, jeff currie at $125,000 is the oil market baking in the idea that the u.s. will go ahead with this and president biden will sign this ban? our base case 135 million barrels or $135 price target really embeds about a 2 million barrel per day disruption. i want to eamphasize, however, i this current environment the sea born trade has been stopped for almost ten days now. the oil flowing down the

pipelines, the oil and the gas in the pipelines has continued to flow. it's actually increased somewhat what comes out of the black seaports, whether it's oil, metals or even grain has all come to a halt at this point right now. that's what the market is are struggling with. so now if we put an export ban on top of that or an import ban on top of that, an embargo, that's more signaling, as much as relatively palatable to do in the current environment when the stuff is already stopped. >> meaning this is after the fact, this is going to happen with or without the ban and the prices are reflecting what you are anticipating anyway because it's happened. >> yep the other point you need to think about is the ability to redirect oil supplies. you know, obviously china and india are candidates, but that's a lot easier said than done. one, you got to get all the ships put in place there's a lot of frictions to being able to do that. second, more importantly are the middle east producers going to want to start supplying the west

in lieu of china that's a big assumption right there. this whole redirection idea, i think, it could take a long time but here is the really critical point. inventories in our buffer are incredibly low there's not much time to do this had this happened a year ago, we would have had a lot of time to redirect supplies and think about how to do this but because inventories are so low, there is no time to be thinking about that, and that's why the upside risk in prices is significant to the upside. >> okay. so you raised your price target for 2022 this year to $135, which is another $10 from where we are at this moment. what does that mean for prices at the pump. what does it mean for consumers if that's the case >> well, i think when we think about what this does to the price of gasoline, obviously it makes it go up, but i want to emphasize it doesn't go up as much as the oil price itself, and there's several factors. there's marketing margins in there. there's road taxes, all of that

acts as a buffer to the potential increase in the crude price. so while you can see a big spike in the crude itself, it doesn't necessarily translate into a sharp rise into gasoline prices. >> tell that to people who are paying $4.19. >> pardon me >> we're talking about the highest national gas average we've ever paid, $4.19 right now according to aaa >> yeah, and you know, part of that is that gap between the crude price and the gasoline price is bigger now. if you look at oil prices, they're right now currently at the levels they were a good part of the first half of 2008 and the 2007 and '11 time period i think the key here, though, is that the upside potential, there you were at the end of the -- you know, the end of the disruption, the end of the spike. here this is just getting started. >> jeff, i want to talk about the last time we saw this

happening, it was 2008 we're now trading at the highest levels we've seen since 2008 goldman sachs made that call for $200 super spike in oil prices that was a possibility, not the expectation of where oil prices were headed, but we did see things come down pretty quickly. what's the other side? what could take prices lower >> well, by the way, i want to say we never forecasted 200, it was a potential trading rate -- >> it made good headlines. >> yes, it did. >> it was not your case scenario for what was happening >> no, it wasn't but i think in terms of thinking about the downside risk here, obviously if you got a cease fire and we went back to where we were before, get iran back online, venezuela up and running, creates downside risk, but i want to emphasize, you know, the toothpaste is out of the tube it's going to be really hard to go back to that type of a dynamic in which i think some

people in the market are potentially anticipating, which means that most likely you're going to a much higher relevel, even in a more bearish scenario. part of the reason is, one, the production in russia is likely on a much lower trajectory due to a much lower investment into the region, and then when we think about, you know, the spare capacity, the inventory levels much of that buffer has been exhausted. you put those two together it creates a much higher equilibrium price. which is part of the reason why we took our 2023 price target up to $115 a barrel let's talk about the metals, watching the lme actually stop trading for nickel as it skyrocketed 250% over the course of two days. i mean, that's unbelievable. they're now talking about suspending the actual physical delivery of the contract that was due march 9th what the heck

happened and what does this mean for the economy? >> well, i want to emphasize that, you know, there is a bullish story to nickel. you remember it's an ev, it's a green metal. it goes into the battery it's part of that green ev story, strong demand, no supply. you can see on that picture it was on a normal bullish upward trajectory like many of the other commodities until the last several days liquidity in these markets are collapsing and i want to repeat collapsing across oil, gas, metals, agriculture. part of that is the higher volatility, discourages investors and market participants liquidity drops off which makes the volatility higher. what makes this so vicious to the upside, we're seeing this in other markets, you know, like wheat, european gas is you're closing the producer positions what happened here is a -- you know, a producer, a big chinese

producer who was short out on the nickel curve, had a margin call, and as they tried to cover those positions and buy it back, it created that huge spike in nickel prices. we've seen it in many of the other commodities over the course of the last two to three months. >> the stop in trading was not to protect the short sellers it was to protect the brokers who would be at risk. >> the thing is unclear about where is positionings, where is settlements things of that nature shutting the exchange down, was it an ability to get a cooling off to figure out where the different positions are. i think it underscores just how big of a problem this is becoming it's not just in nickel. i want to emphasize. this is what drives, you know, big commodity spikes, even the 2008 spike in oil at the very end, that pop up to 147 was driven by liquidation of producer shorts because they get basically stopped out and get

margin calls this is pretty typical in commodities. what makes this one different is the magnitude of it. >> hey, jeff, i want to thank you so much for being with us. this is a crazy story we've been following and we do appreciate it. joe, we will be back here tomorrow folks, thank you for being with us through the course of this morning. a lot to come. stay tuned with "squawk on the street." we'll be right back here tomorrow take care. good tuesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, mike santoli. jim cramer has the morning off we are coming off the worst day for stocks in over a year. got a tentative bounce as china says it's willing to coordinate with europe on a diplomatic solution in ukraine. futures have faded as the president will announce a u.s. ban on russian energy later on this morning our road map begins with energy and the inflation shock. prices at the pump hit a new record and the white house, as we said, set to ban russian oil imports as soon as today. >> plus, shell has a russi