commodities. what makes this one different is the magnitude of it. >> hey, jeff, i want to thank you so much for being with us. this is a crazy story we've been following and we do appreciate it. joe, we will be back here tomorrow folks, thank you for being with us through the course of this morning. a lot to come. stay tuned with "squawk on the street." we'll be right back here tomorrow take care. good tuesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, mike santoli. jim cramer has the morning off we are coming off the worst day for stocks in over a year. got a tentative bounce as china says it's willing to coordinate with europe on a diplomatic solution in ukraine. futures have faded as the president will announce a u.s. ban on russian energy later on this morning our road map begins with energy and the inflation shock. prices at the pump hit a new record and the white house, as we said, set to ban russian oil imports as soon as today. >> plus, shell has a russia

reversal, the energy company planning to withdraw from russian oil and gas and also apologizing for buying that cargo crude last week. >> and headwinds for corporate america, the ceo of snap on tools joins us to talk supply chain, inflation, and the geopolitical risks to growth. >> we're going to start with the announcement we expect from the white house about 10:45 this morning as the u.s. is set to ban not just oil, guys, it's russian energy imports of all kinds, coal, lng, as jeff currie from goldman was telling, a lot of that supply is already arrested so in some ways, symbolic. the real issue would be whether or not we could get europe to tag along. >> right or even if there's an immediate desire to have europe to tag along, if this is not just sort of a political gesture kind of keeping the heat on, you know, acknowledging some political pressures in this country. the big question around the global oil market really is, you know, with this kind of de facto

boycott of russian supplies, even when they're not formally prohibited, is that largely reflected in today's price i think that's been the question all along. jeff currie saying his forecast of 135 for crude incorporates a 2 million barrel a day, essentially that much being off the market relative to precrisis levels what we're waiting for, what the equity markets are waiting for is for crude to not go up on bullish headlines. that's kind of your sign in the short-term you've gotten the price a long distance towards reflecting a lot of these disruptions, but who knows where that number is. >> david more headlines from the iea that they are, again, prepared to release more from the global spr fascinating to listen to the ceo of hess tell brian sullivan it needs to happen now. 120 million barrels he believes this month and another 120 million next month. >> yeah, i think we may have even have that

john has talked to brian at the conference what you'll hear from so many oil executives, this is a real opportunity for them to do that, that they're all committed to the transition, so to speak, the energy transition, but it is going to take a long time, and in fact you've got to get both the government and wall street to sort of encourage more investment, and it's not just the goevernment but the fact tht wall street has wanted to see returns from the oil companies that are about returning cash flow to shareholders in the form of higher dividends or buybacks as opposed to actually more money in the ground to increase production take a listen to hess. >> well, both wall street and government officials need to realize that oil and gas are going to be needed for decades to come, and they're essential to having a smooth and affordable energy transition the key challenge, brian, is investment we're not investing enough >> unclear, guys, what the

impact will be near-term even if you were to increase investing doesn't mean that it results immediately in increased supply. >> it's not as if production is depressed right now. it's just not being lifted aggressively you know, you could also turn this the other way and say ceos want continued cover for under investing and just harvesting cash flows and doing what they've now become, i think, conditioned to do. it's actually been working for them, right? there's a sweet spot where prices are, they probably don't want prices up here to threaten to destroy demand and keep the heat on. you probably want them to come down a little. >> right. >> rick monokreef's criticism a few days ago they haven't gotten cover from the white house the president hasn't come out and said look, guys, we're going to help you ameliorate the relationship with your shareholders if you start to invest less on buybacks and dividends and more on capex. >> yeah, sure, so all of a sudden like the oil industry,

which was always about just wildcatters going out and taking ru r risks and thinking if john has this correct and we're going to need oil and gas for years to come, capitalists will go out and drill some whether it's privately held companies or someone else i think it's interesting that you actually have ceos saying just give us the wink and we'll be able to talk to shareholders. is that true do shareholders say -- >> or who's going to go first? you first. >> exactly >> they're probably going to say yeah, listen, we continue to want -- but the way, they're going to be generating such outsized cash flows that you could do both. >> there you go. >> the numbers are going to be enormous, 48 billion in cash last year for exxon. with these kind of prices if they were to hold up, the numbers are going to be gigantic so you can do both we did ask mike werth and darren woods last week about increased return to shareholders given the current environment, which doesn't preclude also increasing

money for production and/or as well if they see opportunities for increasing their efforts to minimize carbon. but you know, guys, i think when it comes to europe, it's a much more difficult question than it is here in the u.s.. even the shell press release sort of wraps it up. our actions today have been guided by continuous discussion with governments about the need to disentangle society from russian energy flows while maintaining energy supplies. that's the problem, here not as difficult, in europe where they rely so much more on russian gas and oil, much more different story. >> if you missed it this morning, shell apologizing for buying that load of russian euro benchmark, say they're going to stop all purchases immediately and are going to stop service stations, aviation, fuel services in russia as well as we keep an eye on the self-sanctioning there we keep looking for cracks in the momentum, the behavioral momentum of energy, b of a

today, we are disinclined to chase spot prices higher, navigating the volatility means acknowledging diminishing returns. they cut conoco, eng, diamondback to neutral we'll look for more calls like that. >> if you've been positioned in there and you feel as if we've gotten enough in the short-term, we're less than three months into the year, energy's up 30 something percent, it makes something to feel as if what you're seeing now is a little bit of that momentum kind of ride along effect in the price and it's happening in other commodities, right there's been all this talk of nickel if there are short squeezes and blowups, you know, across commodity portfolios, i mean, it's logical to think that you've gotten to this kind of unstable phase of some of the commodity rallies. oil's probably a different story. we are actually scrambling for physical barrels it's not just about, you know, futures and paper profits, but yeah, it makes sense to say that maybe there are going to be better opportunities >> mike, let's move to the stock

market for a minute in terms of the consumer names in particular seem to be getting just hammered yesterday, far more even than the overall market, even though as we've pointed out, it was a particularly bad day for those who own stocks names like expedia and hilton on the travel front, other consumer names, even a u.s. foods some of these moves were very significant to the downside. >> yeah, the market is really rushed to this place of saying that there's genuine budget squeeze happening or about to happen in the u.s. and that we are at a point where the main issue with what's happening with energy is not so much what it's going to do to the inflation data, wu it's going to be about restraining spending elsewhere it does come into context in general of i think investors feeling very pinched between the fed's going to do what it's going to do. we don't know how far. the bond market's telling the fed it probably doesn't have that much runway here, the flattening curve and all the

rest there's going to be a hike in march. it's weird that it's happening with the vix at 30, with credit spreads widening out the way they are so there's an unease about that. naturally it filters right into the consumer and who knows if that's an opportunity. there were some notes today on things like the banks, the d domestic centered banks, now it seem as if we've accounted for even a slight erosion of credit. yeah, no, it's been a stark thing, and also some names that are the global consumer, like the travel names are kind of global you look at the bookings companies and all that that makes a lot of sense. >> you've got three big travel headlines this morning one is alaska air, the first big airline to come out and raise their guidance on fuel costs for k q 1, they're going to trim some capacity in the first half booking holdings over the last week, room nights down about 10% versus 19.

some of that is russia, but a large part of it is western europe, which does remain modestly above 2019 levels, and then united having to cut some of these flights to mumbai, and that's more of an air space issue over russia, but that happened in the middle of yesterday's session. all the majors that have large international roots. >> yeah, absolutely, and it seems as if, you know, for the last two years it's been, okay, things seem like they're lining up well for the travel revival, for the reopening rerival, and it's obviously something that has gotten in the way. this one is difficult to find your way around. >> take a look at live nation, that stock's down 25% in a heartbeat, again, back to the whole reopening. i'm not sure what it says. are people notgoing to be goin to concerts. is there really that much budget problem right now for people at home we are still talking about an economy that had a 5.5, 6% gdp not that long ago with wage significant, still obviously

labor shortages. >> if you own live nation, you owned the other stuff that was positioned for consumer revival and a reopening. there's been a defensive migration within the market. there's no doubt about it. utilities outside of energy, it's utilities and staples that have been working. these are the casualties along the way. >> kind of reminds me of what the jpm desk this morning, most ask question yesterday if we take profits in commodities where do we go long. is that going to be a defensive name or do you really believe 4,200 is a legitimate -- let's say 4,000, and then you start to move into some cyclicals and reflation trades. >> right it's difficult to see the linear path to, yeah, that makes a whole lot of sense let's buy the cyclicals even though we're worrying about slowing and the yield curve is doing what it's doing. it never feels right, 41 and change on the s&p, again was the overnight futures low. that's similar to what we saw on february 24th. you know, so we keep kind of

pinning some significance on these numbers, and we'll see if it holds up. >> last night some people pointing out that the drawdown on the s&p is almost exactly the median drawdown going back to 1928 it doesn't feel that way, though. >> it never does i've been pointing to 2015, 2016 that the peak to trough was about 15%. that's essentially what we've gotten to the lows at 41 and change what do we call that in retrospect do we call it a bear market? it's semantics, but it was multiple months and we're back to april levels in the s&p, levels we first got to in april of last year. >> guys, a rot to get to this morning. it's going to be a busy one, as we said earlier russia exposing some risks for u.s. corporates, we're going to talk about that with the ceo of snap on, we'll see if this moderate bounce can hold here. futures have lost some steam, as maicliays we're dealing with sents ke the nasdaq, for example, in a bear market. back in a moment tensely for a print that

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let's get to erin mclaughlin on the ground in ukraine good morning, erin. >> good morning, officials in the sumi area of ukraine have announced na a cease fire is holding and they have been able to evacuate a number of civilians who had been trapped in that city, civilians as well as about a thousand foreign

students, but the evacuations follow what was a bloody night in the city, russia launched air strikes over the city, bombs that dropped on civilian areas, according to ukrainian authorities. thousand pound bombs that resulted in at least 21 civilians dying as well as two children that according to ukrainian officials, nbc has been unable to corroborate those accounts, but i've been speakin ing to on woman who was in sumi last night, she said she heard the bombs dropped and was terrified. she says she knows civilians who have lost their home this as president zelenskyy continues to call for a no fly zone to be implemented over the whole of ukraine noting that russia continues to dominate the skies while its invasion on the ground has stalled he also was adamant that he is going to be firm, that he's going nowhere, demonstrating

that he is staying in the capital and also very critical of the western response so far, specifically with respect to that no fly zone saying that the west is responsible for the bloodshed in ukraine this as people continue to flee the country. some 2 million refugees so far according to u.n. hcr in what they are calling the largest refugee crisis since world war ii guys. >> erin, thank you for that. even mclaughlin of nbc news on the ground in ukraine. in the meantime, as we talk about the geopolitical situation, supply chain, inflation risks all facing u.s. businesses we're joined this morning by snap on chairman and ceo nick pinchuck good to talk to you again, appreciate the time. >> good to see you, carl, how's it going >> it's been rough i wonder if the turmoil that we spend our time talking about in the commodity channel has thrown your own purchasing into turmoil as well? >> well, these are interesting times.

sourcing is a challenge, but one of the things that snap-on, one of the advantages snan-on has always had we tend to make in the markets where we sell. so 80% of what we sell off the trucks here in america are made right here in america. so our supply chains are shorter, so we don't -- while we're challenged and we're on our game, immediacy is the word. we hop on to spot market to get things and so on, but really we haven't been as impacted as others w others we had all time record in terms of sales in the fourth quarter and our margins were an all time record for america we ought to onshore manufacturing. that's one of the reasons why i'm here, right behind me is our initiative to help fill the skills gap in america, the gap in manufacturing 850,000 plus jobs are open in america. so if you want to bring manufacturing onshore, immunize us against this supply chain and

make it easier that is easier said than done because you have to fill those gaps, and one of the problems is there's a perception gap people still work about manufacturing. 90% of americans think that manufacturing's important but only 30% want their kids to be manufacturers. they do manufacturing as things that other people's kids do. this mobile interactive unit right behind me, there's a big factor in that it's interactive and it tells them that they need great skills, cool skills to get in there. it trells you you need team wor. you need to be able to understand the spatial relationship around mechanical things manufacturing is not dirty as some people think. it's a cool place to be that might be future proof. one other thing to say and that the other thing is that manufacturing is a place where you become part of something greater than yourself.

you know, i would say that the virus is something that should have told us this. when we kept buying from people we bought all through the virus from amazon or other places, we bought crude, toilet paper, they were all provided by manufacturers who stayed at their post and stood firm against the threat. >> i know, i know. you know what's funny -- >> heroes of our day. >> complaints all the time from office workers who don't want to come in five days a week they forget about all the first responders and factory workers who are coming in five days that whole time i do want to ask you, though, you mentioned orders have you seen any sort of deterioration, second derivative flattening out on orders from customers who might be getting a little nervous in this environment? >> you know, i think the orders -- at our level, remember, we deal with the people who work at the grass roots level, and throughout the covid they've been resilient pretty much. we had some difficulty in the second quarter of 2020 where we came out because people in

factories, people in garages, repair garages keep buying in fact, they're getting stronger they came through the covid. they were shocked in the beginning. they didn't know what to do. they figured out they could accommodate and deal with the problem safely they got psychological recovery. i'm not going to get shocked again. now i'm seeing something i would call exhilaration. i kind of think it's sort of like the roaring 20s after the 100 year virus, and so we don't see that kind of thing we came out of the fourth quarter with great momentum. you got inflation, a lot of other challenges and i think things like this, things like creators wanted would help that for american manufacturing and the american economy as well. >> nam's done greatwork on talking about the labor issue, trying to repatriate those processes, nick, i wonder, it's one thing to get repatriate production for supply chain resilience i'm not sure people buy the argument it's going to mean supply chain cost effectiveness, right?

i mean, made in the usa does it mean cheaper as well >> it doesn't necessarily, american workers are efficient one of the things that makes me feel bad is when i hear people say we can't compete with the chinese, we can't compete with the indians. i think american worers workersh best workers in the world. we have processes that keep them more and more efficient. this is what we do at snap-on. i think that's a good thing. you got to look back at the situation. when people saw that we outsourced stuff and therefore maybe their wages didn't go up as much, but they were able to buy more with those wages, i don't think americans in general like that tradeoff they like doing things that are important. they like seeing their wages go up they like being part of something that makes a ir difference, if it costs a little more to do that, i think americans are ready. >> even these poll numbers about a russian oil ban, a lot of

americans would like to have it even if it means a few more cents at the pump. great to have you. thanks so much today rng . one more look at futures, we'll get that opening bell in just about seven minutes

energy names leading the list of s&p 500 gainers, once again. solar dge, actually some of th solar stocks not just fossil fuel stocks participating today, occidental, though, up another 3.2% as well before the open e eng lls just minutes away

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google agreeing to acquire cybersecurity company mandiant, $23 a share. the alphabet unit says the move

will compliment what it calls google cloud's strength and security that is the key offering here, along with google cloud, obviously security is such an important component of that. i wanted to go back just to give people an idea there were times when the stock was far higher. it had a terrible year in 2015, '16 there. never really recovered at 23 you can see any cash kind of putting an end to all that, and yet, mandiant important role in the solarwinds hack and identifying that it's not necessarily benefitted as much in the stock market from so much of the need for its services >> it's a good reminder that 2014 was kind of an early little faang tech mania, and cybersecurity was a key part of it also wondered if cyber security, the individual software companies, it's like a biotech thing, a particular strain of something and then some better

comes along. interesting test of alphabet, though, of the m&a. >> on that point, carl, we talk often about how the biggest tech companies may be precluded from doing any buying i guess they haven't gotten that memo yet we'll see. >> a lot of discussion of mgm and activision happens, would they be more bold. there's the opening bell and the cnbc realtime exchange at the big board, bme memellon, ringing the bell for gender equality we're going to open up with at least one green arrow, mike. right at 4,200 there as we spend a few days hanging around 4,300. >> yeah, 4,200 is a little bit sticky yesterday i tell you, as bad as it was in terms of point to point declines, it was very had a drip drip oppressive. heavy volumes are starting to come out reducing equity exposures, came in heavy in stocks coming into

the year, and that's been working in reversal, a lot of commentary like, oh, we haven't really seen anything climactic we haven't seen a real concentrated dose of liquidation that you sometimes see you don't always have it lined up that's definitely been true. i've been wondering if 4,200 above the intraday or overnight lows from a week ago thursday, i guess it was, and yet, crude's up 30% in that period, and is it interesting or significant that treasury yields are up again and these long-term yields have not kind of surrendered their up trend even though the curve is flattening and even though it might be happening because people are nervous about the fed. it's a complicated mix that's not just pure textbook riskoff action. >> yeah, i mean, jpmorgan's point yesterday was that, look, russia's not a big part of the global economy% th they're not a big credit risk per se it's largely a binary trade on commodities, right, and in their

view, you'd have to see a much bigger escalation from here to make things much worse. >> i think economically that absolutely holds up in terms of trying to sequester it in a place in terms of its impact look, i think you have to be attentive to the stresses that are evident in the overnight funding markets and just kind of the frictions now that are showing up in the banking. i don't think it really rises to the level of saying anyone's in trouble. it's just kind of a risk aversion it's a rush for immediate dollars as opposed to, you know, three-month money, and all these things that, you know, we monitor. look, every 5% pullback in the s&p we had last year, you go down the checklist is credit acting up? no, we're fine there has sentiment reset a little bit? yes, we're fine there. now it just seems as if the burden of proof is a little more on the bulls to are prove this kind of a contained correction, as you said, well within the normal zone for an entry year pullback >> the european banks have been taking it particularly hard as

have the european indexes led by the dakox, which is down about % for the month. it's the banks there that there's a lot more concern about whether it's well-justified orbit. ag or not their exposure to the russian economy seems minimal. there are others that worry about margins to oligarchs, what that's going to mean if so many of their assets are impaired take a look at the dax, which is having a rare up day right now you can see what's happened over the course of the last couple of months, very significant not a s though a lot of u.s. investors don't own indexes tied to those european markets. >> and just on top of all that, what this situation has done to any expectation about the ecb raising rates, the fed, you know, is going to go ahead with some rate hikes and you're seeing the spread between u.s. yields and german yields really

widen out. for that reason, german yields back into negative territory and all that just because, you know, what was going to be a pretty good, you know, at least a runway toward ecb tightening down the road, it was going to be good for banks and positive yields would have been good for banks. >> it's going to be interesting, some headlines this morning from some german officials on what we expect to hear more about, and that is a plan to reduce dependence on russian energy by 80% by the end of this year, and fully independent by 2030 ahead of plan. this may be a joint bond issue to help fund not just energy security but defense as the pictures change to a large degree in europe, which the ft this morning quotes money managers as saying probably already in recession at this point. >> right almost certainly yeah, i mean, a huge shift in terms of the fiscal appetites if nothing else we'll see if that longer term can help things out in terms of the nominal growth picture for

the european economy i mean, if this ends up being a catalyst to have, you know, less dependence on russian energy overall, who knows, maybe it's a good thing really wide gap, though, between those who feel as if this is a concentrated short-term crisis to get through, and those who are saying the new normal in some respects is here. it's tough to maekke the call. >> one might think that higher prices at the pump would lead more people to consider an electric vehicle, although at the same time the costs for the commodities that go into that vehicle are probably going to raise the price over some period of time significantly, not to nickel and others. >> morgan stanley said nickel probably added a thousand bucks to the cost of an ev >> gm shares are up, ford is up. rivian, though, has been just getting crushed lately it's not necessarily because of costs as much as its concern

about production and perhaps any number of other things, including the stock soaring last year that stock now down 61% this year, they're below 41. >> that's a company that said they were going to raise the price on those people who had put orders in for vehicles, and then had to roll it back because of the outcry. >> right >> interesting, sorry, carl. >> your point about a new normal in energy, in eastern europe specifically, turmoil, fundamentally reshapes global commodity markets. after years of under investment, supply and diversification will be necessary in mining and gas >> and agriculture as well >> and not only do they go to buy, what's their target 260. they were at 215 >> yeah. >> 30% upside basically. >> you know, cat was, i think, one of four dow stocks that were up yesterday, and the other three were, you know, pure defensive, you know, j&j and the like so it is interesting that there's at least an investment cycle attached to what's going

on in commodities whether that ends up being, you know, a productive one with high returns or not, it's going to probably happen. >> continuing to keep tabs on u.s.-based companies and global companies as well. we talked about shell, but other companies that are making decisions about how to continue or whether to continue to do business in russia it's a fascinating group of different things that they have to consider before obviously choosing to exit the company entirely, easy for some companies, much harder for others you heard jeffrey sonnefeld yesterday saying in his opinion everybody should basically pull out. i want to let people know yum this morning pausing its investment and development in russia it does have a thousand kfcs and 50 pizza hut locations all of them are operated as franchisees pretty much almost all of them, so that does give you a sense there in terms of

their level of control they aren't going to actually pull out what they are going to do is they are going to redirect all profits from their operations in russia to humanitarian efforts and suspend all investment and restaurant development in russia that's what yum's doing. carl, i don't think we've heard from anything from mcdonald's as of yet. >> i know their phone is ringing off the hook it does remine mind me of deknown. they will continue to sell dairy and baby food. >> procter & gamble said the same thing yesterday. >> this seemed to be the mode, if you're a consumer staples company, you provide necessities into a market. i just find it fascinating that companies of this type feel the pressure to do that. >> you know, it's yet another pressure that ceos are aware of, or leaders of these os organizations are aware of, their customers and employees imploring them to do something

on that note i would say estee lauder, business investments and initiatives have been suspended in russia. last week they've also now decided to suspend all commercial activity in russia including closing every store they own and operate as well as their brand sites and shipments to any of their retailers in russia so fairly significant move there from estee lauder in terms of their business in russia >> reminds me, goldman had a note, a screen of -- jpmorgan u.s. stocks that we would -- that we would mention, frequently with exposure to russia, ukraine. phillip morris is obviously the one you'd probably think of first, but pepsi's in there, then mcdonald's, then carnival, mondelez, kimberly-clark, a lot of consumer products. >> and have been decades this is maybe not the moment where people realize, figure out if there was an overreaction, if this is going to be the new mode if there's some kind of, you know, public outrage about some regime in the world are we going

to just demand immediate disinvestment. i mentioned earlier that, you know, i think it was baird who basically went more neutral on bank of america from the equivalent of a sell rating, basically saying valuations have come down into line, looking better risk reward for that reason bank of america up about 8/10 of a percent this morning banks in general getting a little bit of relief if you look back at where they're trading, essentially the big banks are back to their five-year average, you know, so they look like they've kind of taken some of the premium out, but it just, i think, shows you how people got over excited coming into the year that it was going to be the place to be and ye yields are not fully cooperating there. credit seems okay. it just seems like a more balanced trade i mentioned earlier, the 2015, 2016 period just as a very rough comp in certain respects for what's going on now. we always think about the so-called diamond bottom when jamie dimon went out and

bought jpmorgan shares, that was when jpm was at about book value, just at a slight discount as a matter of fact. right now it's at about one natch times. i -- one and a half times. it had gotten expensive enough that it doesn't seem as if you're talking about real cheap pockets just yet. >> david did ask jane frazier, 75% of the book value, yeah, at citi which is also up today along with the other banks it's not had a particularly good move since the company's investor day last week some investors saying you're taking too long to get to your target of, what, 10 to 12% rotc, others saying they still think it's not reachable over time, you know, we'll be monitoring that and checking in hopefully over time as well with the efforts being made there at citi but especially given their place as the global bank, at least here in the u.s. sort of with

the most outreach and the most exposure to russia, those shares have suffered more than the overall group. >> that said we do have a handful of bullish calls this morning, evercore to outperform on about 20% of their view the stock at this point is too difficult to ignore as we take a look at some of these beaten down technology names, dish, ubs says their spectrum holdings are su undervalued. that's up about 3% today and we mentioned caterpillar that's always coupled with another price target cut at nike as we look at eastern european leverage. >> obviously really this is a target cut, you know, that they cut the target by about 50 bucks and the stock's down 50 bucks from the high it's just kind of chasing the stock lower. it's been a remarkable thing if you look at stocks like nike and to a degree things like starbucks, where over the course of the pandemic, people just kind of decided you could own the global winners in these, you know, categories, and a lot of

that's come out of nike. it's kind of back to where it was before that big lift, and clearly there's going to be some demand effects here and european market is not going to be sh shrugged off the stock is also, you know, what is it, 30% off its high >> apple of course mhas a produc event today. it's been only a handful of days this year where it's traded below 160 where it is today. we'll pay attention to what we think will be a lower cost iphone se and what ever other surprises they want to throw at us. >> the interesting thing about apple is how it's almost alone in really acting as a haven in this whole nasdaq selloff. now, it's down, you know, 12, 13% from its high, but it's vastlyv vastly outperforming and it's the balance sheet and the

predict ability and serving that purpose, shareholder return of capital. i think it's interesting to see if it continues that way or if you have to have one of those down turns in the market where, you know, nobody's left unharmed >> before we came into this period, we were obviously dealing with the significant decline in higher multiple, lower profit, but perhaps high multiple revenue stocks, and just general growth being thrown out because of the fed and what was going on now we're sort of thrown into the energy world and then worrying about inflation and also the recessionary impacts. i don't know, but do we get back to worrying about some of these -- >> i think it's happening simultaneously in a sense. i mean, meta hasn't really been able to gather itself and recover a lot of those losses. you know, it essentially -- and i think that's why the market has been so treacherous is that it's not just one thing going on >> right >> so it's the fed it's the valuation adjustment,

and it's obviously what's happening in, you know, ukraine and energy >> right we did open close to 41.90, which on an intraday basis would be the lowest since that day in february where we got to 41. >> let's get to bob pisani. >> it's hard to hold a rally a nice move up in caterpillar, a nice move up in the oil stocks, chevron's doing well yet the card companies, visa, am exholding back the dow again it's really tough to get a rally going. metals may be starting to top out. the xme, this is materials names, the metal stocks, atf has been just in a rocket ship, and yet it topped out yesterday morning and has turned around. take a look at the sectors that are moving here. it was up yesterday, today down about 2%, that's very interesting. energy still holding up well the new high list is basically littered with energy stocks, banks, industrials tech modestly to the upside. two groups having trouble,

consumer discretionary in some of the retailers and semiconductors have had problems for the last several weeks we talked about some of this crazy action in nickel, the nickel market still remains closed but nickel stocks remain trading. the one exception is the biggest nickel producer in the world they trade over in moscow. that's been closed since february 24th or so. but other big nickel producers are out there. you look at some of these moves we've been seeing here, volley, glencore, bhp group, anglo american these are all big groups that also produce nickel. the moves up there since february 24th when a lot of these hostilities started. elsewhere if you look at the etf for the big metals dbb is the one you want to look at here this trades aluminum, copper and zinc futures together. you see the big move up there, that's about 15% since february 24th and you see that turn down, that's yesterday so there's -- it's starting to look a little bit top pi here.

i have no idea if it is, but the market now is not as enamored as it was just two days ago i've been talking about the bar beld stock market. there is a real differences depending on what sector you look at. the average stock in 2022, believe it or not, is only down 8% that's the average in the s&p 500. material stocks at the same time we have new lows in all the travel names we have new lows in select retailers like tjx, ross stores, tapestry there's obviously some concerns here that $5 gallon gasoline is going to be here through the summer, and some select industrials yesterday like general electric, for example. so very much a barbelled stock market here. one of the reasons the s&p isn't looking as bad as it is actually feels like it is big tech's held up relatively well, so amazon is 17% down that was a new low yesterday microsoft's only down 7% we should say microsoft down 6%.

alphabet down 12%, and apple down 10% there, so not as much of a decline in the big tech sector as you might anticipate what we have seen is a multiple contraction, versus all of the 14% decline in the s&p we have seen this year it's because the multiple has contracted from about 22 to about 18.7 what we're going to see now what the market's afraid of is earnings numbers are going to come down. analysts are notoriously difficult, carl, and you know this to make moouves in their stocks at theinflection point. what we're going to see now is very modest declines in earnings so far you're going to see that number, that 6.2% come down rather quickly in the next several days as analysts play catchup carl, back to you. >> before we go to break, let's take a look at the bond reports, see how treasuries are faring ahead of the one big ecoprint of the week that's coming up on thursday no surprise, many expect to be

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for the mornings when everything's wrong. for the manicure that makes everything right, for right now. show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com as we mentioned, there are new numbers on room occupancy, taking a hit seema mody has more. good morning, seema. >> good morning, carl. the world's largest travel platform disclosing new numbser. room nights falling 10% over the last week, primarily driven by eastern europe, russia, and to a lesser extent western europe, which remains modestly above 2019 levels. this is trying to convey to wall street that the impact of this crisis on travel is confined to a specific region an follows, of course, a sharp drop down about 24% as soon as russia's invasion began.

as to comments made by the marriott ceo yesterday, addressing the impact of geopolitics on travel, saying bookings to europe are strong, and that just in the last few days some of the seen a modest up tick in cancellations other executives i have been talking to says the broader recovery remains intact. demand especially in the u.s., he says, continues to accelerate on thursday, we will get a fresh read on u.s. hotel occupancy, a key metric that wall street keeps an eye on. looking at the european travel stocks have been under pressure the last few weeks you'll see they're rebounding today. up about 3%. carl, back to you. >> seema, we'll keep an eye on a lot of those names still to come, it is president is set to deliver remarks and set to announce a

bans on russian imports in the erxt hour as goldman sachs says the's up side risk to 175. don't go anywhere.

good tuesday morning welcome to at hour of "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and david faber. we are awaiting the president this hour. he's expected to announce a ba on russian energy exports, and the wires say the uk will follow suit eco data is out. rick santelli has the details. >> the final read remains up 0.8 of 1%. to put a face on it, this past october it was up 2.5%, which underscores inventory building is a huge dynamic that's been underway it's ambassadorsed fourth quarter gdp we need to pay close attention.

as for trade, wholesale trade sales up 4%. this is four times what we expected, and in the rear-view mirror, four times on a revision from 0.2 up to 0.8 this is a strongest number since march, when it was up 4.3. the high watermark for this -- that's the high water mark sits '92. just think, 35 hours ago we were at 1.66% in the ten-year, we're now up 20 basis points and never use percentages. bund yields went from minus 0.1 basis points to where they're currently trading up 11 basis points, what's that, a gauge of 1200%? morgan, back to you. >> volatility everywhere thank you. we are 30 minutes into the trading session. here are some big movers

energy giant shell announcing it will no longer do spot purchases of russian oil and shutting down other operations in the country. plus nickel prices doubling to a record $100,000 a ton, leading to the london metal exchange suspending the industrial metal for at least the remainder of that chart. it absolutely went parabolic dick's sporting goings, same-stores sales growing 9% carl good morning, kayla tausche, who has the latest. >> good morning. president biden will speak at 10:45 this morning to announce a new ban on russian energy

imports ratcheting up the -- the administration had hoped to leave in set of actions untouched. the state department's energy envoy telling you two weeks ago that oil and gas purchasing would still be permitted to avoid any risk of price pressures. last night the kremlin warning the west that a coordinated effort could push crude to $300 a bail there's a view within the white house and shared by the american petroleum institute, that price pressures may already broadband priced in. after all, the u.s. imported only about $4.7 billion in oil last year, according to the eia, and russian energy represented about 8% of all energy imports, including natural gas products

most american companies have stopped taking russian oil already. that's a byproduct of the white house stelegraphing this move we heard this morning from the ceo of hass he's calling for 240 million barrels to be released from emergencily reserves. >> interesting comments from john hess, where he was talking with brian sullivan. he remains in houston for this week this really is such a small number, in terms every what we actually import from russia, but give us your take overall, including that great interview with john hess. >> thank you, david.

the key is what exactly gets banned in this expected ban. it's not just crude oil. there's a lot of other things that are related to crude oil from russia. first off, let's go to the numbers. david, you're exactly right. the numbers are pretty small we're averaging last year about 6 million barrels a month of imported russian oil we use about 550 to 600 million, depending on the months. the numbers are pretty small we actually ramped up our imports, but that is just crude oil, guys. if you look through the data, you realize crude oil makes up about a half of all the refined or other petroleum-based products we bring in from russia, things like maybe diesel fuel or naptha, so will this

expected ban simply ban outright crude oil, which is the price we're showing you right there. it's up again to 128 and change, or will it also ban all these other things why that might matter that could hit some of the refiners all of this refining, they need all these other weird products we never talk, things like naptha, these file ingredients that make gasoline work. there's six tankers, four on their was, one in the port of new york, one in anchor at the port of south jersey, filled with russian oil that was bought before putin's war began. what happens tothose ships they're his r-- really steaming her, due for next week you do wonder. there's a lot of questions hopefully at 10:45 we'll get

some answers the market keeps going up. >> more importantly is what the eu will choose to do the statements they're going to try to drastically reduce their reliance on russian energy the uk saying, they're not as important, but they're going to cut it what are you hearing at the conference in terms of the real user of russian production >> well, a little late, right? that's the underlying tone here. thanks to a reviewer, who reminded me of boone pickens, and talked about how yearn,and europe particular were overly reliant on russian oil and russian natural gas. that was 14 years ago he was talking about that it kind of got ignored the uk closed its only natural gasfield in 2017

that field was also really their only storage they thought it's not a big deal, wee put a bunch of renew ables up if you're the uk or europe and you're buys on the spot mark -- the number may be screwy here, the spot market, that natural gas market is the equivalent of 200-plus dollar a barrel oil at the very minimum, and i'm estimating low so as tough as it is here for u.s. consumers, i will say this, we are blessed and lucky to be here right now, because this energy shock, goldman sachs calls it one of the biggest potential energy shocks that the world has ever seen. that was jeff curry this morning in a note, carl. if this goes on, europe in

particular, is probably going to be staring down the fails of a massive recession. >> that's quick lip becoming consensus for sure brian, thank you very much joining us to discuss b of a's head of u.s. mid cap strategy, and barclays yamish, let me ask you, the market has been asked to absorb a lot. what does that say >> its puzzling. the only way to explains it is the -- even if you see earlier in the year in january we had the 50 basis-point hikes priced in it actually took it well the only way to think about it is the market thinking -- if you

follow the goldilocks as in the past having said that, we don't think it's that easy right north but -- it just makes the part very, very tricky. i think that's why the market seems to be a bit sanguine about it, we are a bit more ready. >> jill, would you agree how do we think about that through the lens of mid caps >> yeah, we expect this to be a volatile year for large caps in the s&p 500. we had a 4600 target on the market, so with the correction, we went from looking for sleight i slightly down side to slight up side, but we think volume tilts remain elevated. you know, one area of opportunity that we seat in the market, and we think this year will be about picking spots

within the u.s. equities one of the areas is small caps you know, in contrast to large caps, where valuation multiples are trading well above than averages, small caps look historically cheap, especially relative to large caps, trading at knee will 30%, so i think a lot of the risks have been priced in there, and for small caps those are the stocks that will benefit from the recover in the u.s., moving into a better backdrop on the covid front, more domestics, so a bit more insulated from anything in a geopolitical-wise. we've been more cautious on multinationals as we expect globalization to peak. a lot of they will benefits smaller, more domestic companies. >> hameesh, do expect ailing need to come down? >> i think to some extent.

the only question is how resilient the u.s. economy will be to this you know, as the previous segment was mentioning, this is obviously much more of a big deal for european stocks. so -- with the u.s. economy, it's a bit more insulated. coming to the recent phenomenon, with the high commodity prices, what we see in the price is we look at the supply when there was supply for shows to oil. it was a consumer facing industry, or sectors that suffered the most. >> act like attacks on consumers, and they shift the concession packages.

looking at some of the other sectors, so forth, i think those are likely to be more resilient, and the different secular growth, you know, that they are participating in, but overall, i would say, yes, they do need to come down. >> i know you had you like small caps do you buy into the indexes or etfs to small caps do you buy individual stocks here how how think about that >> yeah, i think there's a couple things that we've been highlighting for investors if you're looking at the indexes and thinkses about it from a passive perspective, the s&p 600 is a lot higher quality and has, you know, more exposure to some of the sectors that look better in our work han the russell 2000 which has a -- so you have seen both last year and this year so

far the s&p 600 has been outperforming the russell 2000 but for active investors, we think it's a good backdrop for stock picking. so we think it's a good time to listen to the fundamental analysts, or analysts at b of a cover over 800 small and mid-cap stocks with he would focus on quality, stock with healthy free he cash flow and stocks that have attractive margins and rising inflationary environment >> we'll pay attention to that, and obviously with the president, we'll see you in the coming moments. after the break, gm announcing a new partnership in the hopes to expand its ev plans, stocks up about 0.5%, but we're also awaiting president

biden, expected to announce new actions against russia we're going to take you there live when it happens ha big show still ahead don't go anywhere. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." gm announcing a new partnership with pg & e. this is such a treat good to have you here. >> there's humans back here. >> i know.

>> it's good to be here. this is an interesting story they're going to be partnering to work on the -- that will alloy gm electric vehicles to essential power homes, if there is a power outage, or if the grid is stressed where pg & e is at in central and northern california it will take time for this to come together, but this is an interesting move by both gm as well as pg & e for general motors, these are interesting dates given what's happens in the world, and that is putting pressure not just on general motors, but all of the automakers and lithium, north are we talking about the price going through the problem, but the fact that the supply, further out many are questioning the supply and whether it would be

there here's mary barra talking about how gm is locked in. when we announce a strategic partnership, the terms and conditions are already done. betting they will have the supply of whatever it is, they will have that supply in the future for the commitments that they have made for ev production as you look at all of the auto stocks, adam joan jonas has said there is not it's not enough to say it's a commitment. at some appointment ugoing to have to see --, it's such a key part of -- they can secure the

suppliened and butt it in through their supply chain, but it's nickel, copper, a number of different bush litium. >> aluminum. >> at a time when commodity prices aacross the board are spices dramatically, and there is all this talk about more push towards more renewable, more -- and so much of those commodities come out of the that region. >> and it raises the question will they bring the prices down. the big goal is to get down to the $30,000 point. and people are saying we don't seat them get there soon, but something will have to champs with the auto industry over the next couple years. >> i think they are the ones who will pay the price when a general motors comes to town or volkswagen and says we want to lock in a contract, whether it's for nickel, li lithium, they have more pull and

might than a start-up. >> great to have you are here on set, phil. great interview, too. >> thank you. now time for an etf spotlight. the top holding there, that may explain some of the it's google, of course, alphabet, planning to buy mandiant it's such an important business for them the price tag $23 a share. and the deal is expected to close later this year. so much for big tech not doing

deals. i mean, it's a very small one, compared to alphabet's market cap. nonetheless they're going to thattic on -- we'll be right back ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq at ameriprise financial, our advice is personalized. based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice?

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." we're going to get a check here on cryptocurrencies, all trading higher today bitcoin is up about 3%, though still under 40k. ether higher, dogecoin as well and this even as we see gold trade higher, and we see stocks a bit under pressure today certainly key, guys, for this industry in focus this week is the fact that president biden is expected to sign an executive order to lay out the groundwork for more research, more study, more potential collaboration, if you will, an more broad-based

regulation, which i think this industry would very much welcome because of clear path forward that it would give. >> one thing the industry lablgs is any kind of road map of what's allowed and what's not allowed. it was viewed that way before, david, the whole political is that now, and the effort to keep russia working around some of these sanctions, adding another layer of complexity. >> there's a lot mo move through here, as you take a look at various things we keep track of. you look at gold, then you go to the gold miners. i'm not sure where you go when you look at different cryptocurrencies as a way to -- where you can two to the gdx, which also is up fairly dramatically in recent sessions. >> as we go to break, check out some of the top gainers. off the early morning lows

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welcome back i'm rahel solomon. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. the u.s. will ban imports of russian oil, an escalation of the sanctions already imposed on the country for its invasion of ukraine. president biden is expected to make the announcement in the next 30 minutes. a humanitarian cease-firei holding near the ukrainian city, allows people to board buses to take them to a safer area. in a town near kyiv, an emotional scene was caught on camera, as a police officer says good-bye to his young son, as he

doesn't want to leave. from florida, a dash-cam video shows a state trooper using her car to intercept an allegedly impaired driver. toni shook is credited with saving dozens, even hundreds of lives, shook is back home after spending time in the hospital. an incredible sacrifice there. >> still to come, the president set to speak this hour, set to announce a back on russian oil we'll take you there live when it begins. take a look at the markets right now. it is largely another down day the s&p is down about 0.6, the dow is also down 0.4, or 111 points the only major average hanging on to gains is the small caps, e ssthruell 2000

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." pension funds are assessing risk exposure to russia, as calls come for florida, for instance, to divest from russian investments. joining us is florida's chief financial officer, jimmy petronis $300 million off a $195 billion portfolio is not very much why not just get rid of it and make some people happy >> florida has been on the ford front holding regimes accountable.

our sba a monitoring because of how dynamic things are, but everything is on the table, everything which means, what? you have to go through some sort of process before it can be divested, or what does everything on the table mean that's made up of myself, attorney general and governor desantis until the sba meets, those decision are basically there at a publicly noticed meeting where we can discuss it. for example, the last time the sba med, also, we took those function, where those businesses that were many social decision, energy-based decision in the best interest of florida's returns, we started moving away and making sure we're not investing in social engineering.

>> so, jimmy, we can talk specifically, for example about russian assets within the pension portfolio, but given the fact we're seeing volatility across the board, so many different stocks, for example, here in the u.s., how are you navigating that? general? i still have 900 people a day moving to the great state of florida. the cost of business has gone up, but the cost of business in florida is cheaper than new york or illinois or anywhere else as we see this migration, it's making everything cost more, and again, we monitor it, but one of the biggest concerns is, what nobody is talking about, the increase of inflation in the availability and cost of insurance. homeowners insures is spiking, because it costs more to replace yourhouse.

three years >> so how do you navigate that >> again, it's a tern. we have fund the at aboutle 7%, you compare us to new jersey, which is funded about 44%, or illinois, which is less than that again, we do a pretty good job of managing money, but i was eight years in the legislature, even in the down term of the foreclosure crisis, the legislature was bringing dollars in and backfilling to unfunded liabilities. >> jimmy, a final question i mean, i think we can see some fire trucks in the background there. you wear a lot of hats, in addition for the chief financial officer of florida, i believe

you're also the state fire marshal. >> right. >> i know there have been some significant fires around the partner handle in certain areas. have things been contained >> david, i wish i could tell you yes, but the fire has doubled in size from 13,000 acres yesterday to 28,000 today. all these fire engines you see here behind me, they're from as star south as naples, and as far east as jacksonville this is a collaborated effort, so thank goodness the fire's moving away from the populated areas, but it is following the path of hurricane michael, which devastated this area just over three years ago. that's where the fuel is on the ground >> all right we're sorry to hear that we heave you guys can contain it as soon as possible. jimmy petronas, thank you.

dom chu has a sector sort for us. >> stocks are drifting lower this hour, as you can see behind me, there's 2/3 or two specs of green behind me. the biggest laggards, general mills, campbell's soup lamb westing also trading lower on the day that company has some production facilities in russia, down roughly 20% in the past week or so companies out there including conagra, continue to go a focus for many investors carl, back to you folks at the stock exchange >> dom, thanks jay timmons on how russia's invasion is impacting -- and we are awaiting the president, expected to announce -- we are

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welcome back the conflict continue to say rage on, as you see defense stocks reaching fresh highs, just a lot of focus on defense spending here and abroad tomorrow i will be in washington, d.c. broadcasting exclusively from the mcaleese conference we have an incredible lineup it's going -- the coverage will start in "squawk on the street" tomorrow morning, with exclusive interviews with the u.s. army secretary, christine wormutm and michael mcchord, essentially the cfo of the pentagon. chiefs of staff will be joining us, as well as civilian secretaries of all the armed services it will be key to get their insights, david, not only on the situation on the ground, what this is going to mean for

defense spending, as i mentioned, and the 23023 budget we're expecting from the biden administration later this month, but also, of course, what investors more broadly are asks, which is how does this actually end? dollar tree is a company that he's been taking to task, a bick shake-up on the board of directors. they'll add a new finance committee, and most importantly they're adding rick dreiling, who was the former dollar general ceo, now executive chair of the company and five new directors as well

this is a significant change in the composition of dollar tree's board, avoiding, obviously, a proxy fight itself, or at least the vote, which clearly one can assume, given the nature of the settlement would have gone strongly again him as well they're going to have departures of bob sasser, arnold baron, gregory bridgeford, carrie wheeler, thomas witten, all retiring from the board as well. so as significant as the companies like to call it refreshment, carl, of the board at dollar tree the stock is responding positively to that and the -- hilal doesn't talk to the media, kind of an interesting strategy from an activist, and in this case doesn't seem to have hurt him at all. >> the russian war already causing a sharp drop in international trade. experts expect the impact for decades to come.

joining us is the president and ceo of the national association of manufacturer. jay timmons. good to have you here. >> good morning. >> you're talking about broadening the workforce in this country, but i've got to imagine the supply chain discussion has been to be overpowering a lot of the discussion you're having right now. >> it's front and center obviously there's a complete crisis in this country for not only consumers, but manufacturers being able to access good. part of that, obviously, it does go back to the workforce crisis we face. one of the things we're trying to accomplish here at the board meeting being held in phoenix, is to call attention to that crisis through our campaign, which you see behind me here, as we're taking that campaign throughout the country >> all right if we're going to do the workforce thing, what are the

solutions? we have seen some efforts from the chamber of commerce, and i notice you're working on some of this as well, in changing the conversation regarding legal immigration, but does it go beyond that? >> thank you for bringing up immigration. so many people take sides, kind of a cultural issue. it's not just a question of policy for what's right and wrong, or morally right, to encourage legal immigration, and also take into account 11 million undocumented people who are here and give them a pathway to citizenship, but beyond that, it's an economic issue we simp live don't have the workers to get the job done. beyond that, making sure we are changing perception about manufacturing careers in the united states. creators wanted is all about that making sure young people, especially those thinking about a career change, are exposed to

what modern manufacturing is all about. the new and exciting and technology-driven industry that is truly not only changing the world, but over the course of the last two years has been responsibility for saving the world through our pharmaceutical manufacturers and others that have risen to the challenge during the pandemic. >> jay, there's the peeple piece of the puzzle, and then there's the cost and commodity piece of the puzzle between that, between sanctions, how are your constituents navigating all of that how would you expect this to continue to play out, even as we do see this major multiyear trend of reshoring take place? >> so, i will say this, meg. there's literally not one member of the board of directors that i have spoken to we have a large board, 250

members. they represent manufacturers all across the united states not one of them has sig anything but we need to take a stance against russia and support of people of ukraine, that this is completely unacceptable. this will lead to further challenges in the supply chain this would lead to additional cost pressures for manufacturering and for consumers in this country,so what do we do about that we have to be pragmatic, frankly, to be very direct about that we know that the president is about to make the announcement about banning russian energy imports to this country. that will have some drive on the cost pressures here in the united states, so we need to make sure that we're increasing production domestically of our energy sources we also need to make sure the regulatory agenda is not cost prohibitive of manufacturers we need to watch that we're not adding cost pressures, as we have attempting to overcome

these challenges manufacturers can rise to the solution they always do -- two word wars, we'll be there again, but we need to make sure that the right decisions are being made in washington and throughout the states. will we see more manufacturing come to the u.s. because of this, because of the pandemic, because of the trade war a couple of years ago? i mean, is that sort of the trend in general, this deglobalization? if so, then how do you continue to work with an administration or with this administration to find ways to bring those costs down >> so i don't know any administration, and i've been in this position throughout obama, trump, biden administration. i don't know any president who doesn't want more jobs in the country. it is a matter of policy it is discussions we have with white house leaders all the time i believe the trend is to bring more manufacturing back to the shores of the united states, to invest that next dollar here in

the country, in this country i think we have to remember that 95% of the customers live outside of the borders of the united states. so we will have operations elsewhere. to the extent we can prioritize those operations right here, we're going to do that i'll say one last thing about cost pressures one of the biggest cost pressures on manufacturers would be, and it has not happened thankfully, would be to reverse those 2017 tax reforms that we saw, that supercharged the manufacturing sector, and allowed us to invest and hire and raise wages and benefits we want to keep doing that here in the united states policymakers need to make sure they protect those gains we made five years ago and that we continue them into the future. >> jay, we'll keep a close eye on your meeting. talk to snapon this morning, and it is good to talk to you, as well. >> thank you very much. coming up in the next hour, don't miss an interview with the

ceo of conocophillips, ryan lance, talking the rising oil prices, pushing his stock near a new all-time high. we continue to wait for the president on what we expect to be his announcement on the ban of russian energy into this country. ng ddow is hanging in a tight rae,own 85

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welcome back russian oligarchs are unloading conflicts, but what happens to the items seized we have seen some items like yachts get seized. robert frank has the story for us robert >> yes some big items, in fact, morgan. italian authorities freezing over $150 million worth of yachts and villas over the weekend. including yachts owned and a $19 million compound the question now, as you say, what to do with all these really expensive assets sanctions only allow the assets to be frozen the owners remain the legal owners but they are prevented from using or transferring these assets until the sanctions are lifted the yachts are stuck at port homes prevented from being sold or transferred

governments can only seize or actually take ownership if an oligarch is charged with a specific crime could be money laundering, corruption, or evading the sanctions. the asset has to be tied directly to the crime itself all of that takes years to prove and work its way through the courts if they're eventually sold, the proceeds go to law enforcement now, some russian billionaires are racing to sell before they get sanctioned or potential criminal charges abramovich trying to unload chelsea football club and the properties he has in the uk. there is a new bill in congress, the yachts for ukraine act, getting cash from oligarch assets directly to the people of ukraine. so far, nothing in the u.s. has been seized. all these assets seized in europe, just waiting in legal limbo until there is anykind o prosecution or sanctions change. guys >> robert, it is david abramovich has not been sanctioned, right? his name has come up because of

the sale of chelsea, but he is trying to sell anything before it might happen. >> that's right. he hasn't been sanctioned. he hasn't been sanctioned in europe or the eu the uk hasn't even caught up to those sanctions yet. so there's just a big question, given his lobbying power, his connection with so many politicians in the uk and europe, and his ownership of so much property there, whether he will be on the list. he's kind of the big fish that people are waiting to see whether he's sanctioned or not >> interesting robert, thank you. robert frank as we await president biden this morning, we want to bring in our steve liesman so we can talk a bit about the spike in oil and what it will mean for the broader economy. steve? >> yeah, you know, david, i think the normal reaction is, hey, oil price spike, recession. it's kind of like the regular one-two punch. there's a couple things that are a little different this time that are worth taking a look at. i don't see economists ready yet

to put negative signs in front of the gdp forecast. three factors are out there. one, we produce a whole lot momore oil than in previous price hikes. we use more gas. we're growing out of omicron now, it is a huge price spike. it is also going to affect food and a lot of other commodities those are on the other side of the equation at the moment, people are a little reluctant to say, price spike, recession in the u.s. >> steve, at what point would you potentially see -- we have this recovery train that plays out in the stock market. airlines, for example, hotels have been hit in recent days because there is this expectation that if we see oil prices and, thus, gas prices, which are already at record, continue to lag into the summer at these levels, people are going to start to tighten their purses >> yeah. i mean, i'd like to say that it's an easy answer. it's not first of all, a lot of oil and

energy demand is not elastic it can't really adjust you're not going the -- you can't shorten the distance to work that's a bulk of it. you can't shorten the difference between the port and the delivery of the good there is an interesting thing. i was talking to michael gapen yesterday from barclays. he says the biggest impact of oil price spikes comes in durable goods. one of the biggest things is cars normally, okay, we'll see car sales decline. except for one thing we are 4 million cars a year below normal so what he said, this is going to come back anyway despite the energy price spike you know, a lot of the old rules don't apply. we have a lot more -- our energy production is essentially in balance. we import as much as we export 11.6 up 25 rigs the ceos are saying there's a limit to how much they can bring back certainly, we're producing a lot of oil in this country that means, david, that the money we used to send overseas

in previous price spikes stays home. >> yeah, a lot, of course, due to really what was a huge technical advance in terms of tra fracking which happened some time ago but resulted in this country being essentially saudi arabia that'll do it for us here on "squawk on the street. let's get to "tech check" right now. ♪ good tuesday morning i'm carl quintanilla with jon fortt and dierdre bosa we're going to take up the pain in tech stocks, specifically the mega cap names getting hit hard. google adds to the por portfolio.