met with a u.s. military response >> say that again. >> 79% of americans say that if a nato ally was attacked the u.s. should respond with military force >> wonder if all this makes the oil spike different than the other ones we have seen. thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you, tyler and kelly. welcome to "closing bell." major averages trading in a broad range today, spiking midday, before pulling back. gaining steam here again as we head into the close. >> i'm mike santoli. let's look at what's driving the action stocks turned higher around noon eastern after a headline said ukrainian president zelenskyy was scaling back his push for nato membership, but that boost quickly faded on headlines that vladimir putin would restrict certain imports and exports. meantime, president biden announced a ban on russian oil, gas, and energy imports this morning, saying this is a step we're taking to inflict further pain on putin. and caterpillar by far the best

performing dow stock today, following an upgrade from jefferies. we'll speak with the analyst who made the call later in the show. 59 minutes to go energy and consumer discretionary in the lead. >> energy up 49% we'll speak to the energy secretary of the united states, jennifer granholm, about today's announcement to ban russian oil and gas. what it means for american drivers at the pump. >> plus, hedge fund manager kyle bass weighs in on the increasingly complicated relationship between china, the u.s., and russia what it means for investors in the long run >> first up, let's focus on the big stories we're watching mike tracking the market action. kayla tausche with the latest on america's actions against russia how does the rally feel today? >> it's all tentative. this is a twitchy market the midday rally seemed to come out of nowhere all of it occurring in the vicinity of the year to date lows we did get back down to those intraday lows of a couple weeks

ago, so we're talking about 4100 and change not too much to inspire you in terms of this chart. the rally, though, does show that there's some sensitivity to potential upside risk on any whisper of de-escalation or calming down of the commodity markets. that's definitely the lesson you don't want to forget that after we had this downtrend in place since january 3rd. any rally, folks would say, would have to surmount, let's say, 4370. we're talking about let's go 5%, 6% up from here before it's anything more than just a bounce nike is down today about 1.5%. it got a price target cut at cowen. some issues in terms of potential european sales i would like to compare it to two other of the great global brands of america, disney and starbucks. this stocks built up this huge premium because how could you go wrong owning these in a recovering economy with the fed finally and all of the rest of it this is a year and a half chart. they have all rolled and given

up the premium to some degee. the s&p 500 outperforming this group for a while. this is kind of your consumer blue chip, never sell them, well, people are selling them. maybe that's gotten the valuations back more in line with prospects now, we had this 10% correction. we're hanging around the minus 10% number in the s&p 500. this chart from goldman sachs shows the history of 10% corrections and where they go on average from that point. see here we are, it's a quick 10% drop relative to history, and the only difference between recovering over the next several months and going deeper is whether we have a recession in the next 12 months that's why the big toggle, that's why trying to divine the message of these stock markets, and you do see 20% declines, quick ones without a recession, but it's relatively rare and they tend not to last long, usually a quick snapback if you get there. >> what are you reading and hearing about oil prices and the move today how much -- it does feel like a lot was factored in, but it doesn't seem there's any quick

fix when it comes to boosting global supply of oil, of wheat, of nickel, of all of these important commodities we're learning russia played such a key role in producing. >> some of those markets are broken arguably, nickel is broken i don't think it's necessarily there's a quig solution. it's a matter of what's the clearing price that accounts for the absence of the russian supplies on the market that's why i don't think you got much of a move in either direction on the u.s. russian ban on energy products we're still scrambling for some kind of solution or that clearing price where in fact it seems to be factored in. >> just hard to figure out because they do feel more long term in nature >> oil prices are moving higher again today, up about 3%, 4%, as the u.s. takes that move, announces a ban on russian energy >> the white house announced an immediate ban on new investments in russia's oil, gas, and coal industries, and exports, with a 45-day period to wind down

existing contracts the uk announced isown ban to take effect by the end of the year on oil, and the european union announced plans to be independent from russian gas before 2030 and to require europe's storage containers be 90% full that's a big jump from the 27% levels now a senior administration official said other actions including yet another emergency reserve release by g-7 allies and other partners is still under consideration. and moments ago, poland announced an agreement in principle to have the u.s. backfill its mig-29 fighter jets after warsaw sends its existing fleet to the u.s.'s ramstein air base in germany where those planes are expected to be delivered to ukraine poland called on nato allies to take similar actions as ukraine defends its air space. in an interview last night, ukraine's president suggested he was open to compromise on ceding control of some separatist held regions in ukraine the next round of cease-fire

talks is expected thursday sara >> do we expect europe to take any action to follow the u.s.? or we're just going at it with the uk and europe is going to go a different route? >> well, europe simply is not in a position to be able to take the same actions that the u.s. and even the uk to a lesser extent announced today they're simply too dependent on russian energy at this time. for context, last year, europe imported about $107 billion worth of russian energy. that compares to about $4.5 billion of crude the u.s. imported from russia as well you can see it's apples to oranges and we talk about the size there is an expectation a follow-on move by japan could be in the works that's something that has been under consideration. and other allies as well in that region we're going to wait and see, but certainly, as far as the trans-atlantic allies are concerned, we expect the set of actions we got from the eu and the uk today are where it's going to be left for now >> and one more from me.

how much do we know about this putin ban on their own exports and raw materials from russia to sort of respond or be pre-emptive about it until december 31st. does that mean they're not going to sell to china it itser. >> it's unclear. china has been warning of countersanctions as a way to essentially punish the rest of the world for the actions that have been taken. one thing europe has been worried about and why you have seen germany's chancellor be so outspoken in not taking part in some of the energy restrictions is because so much russian gas flows into germany and there's a concern before winter is over with storage levels just at 27% that russia could begin to withhold its own energy supply to essentially punish the europeans and they want to keep that from happening until they get their supply shored up a little more. >> kayla tausche, thank you. with energy leading the market again today. >> after the break, we'll talk to hedge fund manager kyle bass

about how the war in ukraine is impacting the relationship between china and russia you know he's got thoughts there, and what it means for investors. you're watching "closing bell. dow back on the upswing, up 275 osmiteunl e 3 nus tith cle. at ameriprise financial, our advice is personalized. based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

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more companies are coming out just as we speak, announcing pauses or pulling back on the russian market, just got word from amazon, aws, their cloud computing business will no longer accept new customers based in russia or belarus also getting word from starbucks that they're going to pause all

business activity in russia. kate rogers is here with that story. so kate, how much is at stake for starbucks? >> yeah, sara. kevin johnson, the company's ceo, just put out a letter to partners i'll read a bit to you here. we continue to watch the tragic events unfold and today we decided to suspend all business activity in russia including shipment of all starbucks products, our license partner has agreed to immediately pause store operations and will provide support to the nearly 2,000 partners in russia who depend on starbucks for their leavelihood. the company has licensed stores in russia so there's a middleman to work with in between. they have about 130 locations and this is the second restaurant we have seen today after mcdonald's also saying it would pause operations at more than 850 locations in russia and yum brands last night also announcing it would pause any future new investment and development in russia. three big names all with exposure pulling back in the last day or so >> kate, thank you

>> expect we'll get even more. for more on the crisis in europe and what investors should be doing, let's bring in kyle bass, founder of hamen capital management always good to have you on the show welcome back >> good to be here >> i have to give you credit because i was looking back on some of your prior interviews. you were on with us in january talking about expecting very high oil prices. oil prices to surpass $100, which people weren't talking about back in the, and it wasn't on the war in ukraine. it was on covid. now that we're seeing this huge supply shock and moves like today where the u.s. is banning russian oil, where do you think we're headed next? >> i think all of this awful war was just an accelerant to kind of the fire that was already burning on the oil supply side again, with seven years of significant underinvestment in our kind of immediate desire to switch to alternative energy, we made some really bad policy decisions over the last seven

years. and i think that high prices, again, will end up solving that because it will be a call to arms to have people realize that maybe we need the keystone pipeline, maybe we need to invest more in safe hydrocarbon production in the u.s. and domestic hydrocarbon production as we transition to alternative energy, call it wind, solar, and i think small modular nuclear. these transitions take 40 to 50 years. we're only 3% alternative energy and we have been all in for about 12 years we all want to effectuate this overnight and what we're realizing is this is a very long process. where we need to be deliberate and thoughtful about how we transition we can't just flip a switch. >> to be fair, it wasn't just policymakers investors were demanding these changes from these companies as well to announce all sorts of esg policies and crack down on spending to get their finances in order this is a very different world

it's easy to say in hindsight the companies should have been saying that. so are you a buyer of energy stocks >> no, i mean, i would -- i think in the long run, owning hydrocarbon production, owning royalties, things like that is going to be a very lucrative business i think that you're going to see hydrocarbon growth until at least 2035, somewhere, 2040. we're sfil going to see incremental hydrocarbon growth annually and we better start doing some significant domestic drilling the decline curve itself has about a 6% or 7% decline annually the world needs to replace 6 or 7 million barrels a day each year just to tread water we really need to invest more there, but i think, again, i think this war has really exacerbated the structural deficiencies that we have. i would love to switch gears and talk about sanctions, if you would like to go there >> sure. go ahead what's your thought on sanctions

at this point? >> i think -- i have done a lot of work on sanctions i helped develop a sanctions compliance plan for the largest public endowment in the u.s. back in 2018 when you look at primary sanctions, when you look at entities and individuals that the treasury decides to sanction through ofac, we have to be willing to go the full mile. and what i mean by that is when we sanctions iran back in 2018, we knew the chinese banks were still processing payments to these sanctioned iranian oil companies. as we sanction russia today, we know that when we took visa and mastercard out of russia, they immediately went to the chinese union alipay and the chinese banking system is giving them the workaround we have to be willing to sanction those secondarily that help the people work around, that help the russians work around the primary sanctions i think if we're going to use sanctions as our -- the tip of the spear of our economic war,

if we're not willing to go into a kinetic war, to save the people of ukraine and the democracies of europe, then what we must be willing to do is secondarily sanction the bad actors what we're seeing today is a bifurcation of the world between call it the axis of evil which is china, russia, north korea, i iran, and other bad actors of the world, and the rules-based west what we're seeing today is a tectonic shift what putin has forced wul street to kind of rethink is wall street's love affair with basically helping build the despotic leaderships of russia and china. i think you'll see much larger shifts in the future >> you're essentially saying we should sanction entities in china that might be allowing russia to circumvent some of the sanctions. at a time when a lot of folks are hoping china can actually play a role in negotiating some kind of withdrawal or settlement or de-escalation of the situation?

>> yeah. i mean, hope springs eternal, right? did you read the february 4th joint communique press release between xi and putin if you haven't read it, i suggest you go back and read it. they talk about forming an alliance, stronger than that of the allied alliances of world war ii they talk about the areas of strategic cooperation, there are no areas that are, quote, off limits they say human rights should never be one of the factors in trade negotiations i mean, these people are fully crazy. and they are in partnership. and china is not going to be the one that's the global savior here in this war china is going to end up being one of the bad actors. look at xi's speech where he talked about the inevitability of the peaceful reunification of the taiwanese. that's kind of crazy talk. and he gave that speech just a few months ago all a lot of people see china as a winner because it strengthens the china/russia trading

relationship and potential move out of dollar reserves into chinese money. >> sara, i don't know where you can spend that, but there's pretty much nowhere around the world that takes them. they still have a closed capital account. they still restrict global travel and spending of the chinese. this whole thing is somewhat of a facade when you think about spending rnb and moving off the dollar we have seen commodity prices skyrocket in the last month and seen the dollar strengthen with the skyrocketing so if you look for any indications of where the strength in the world is, it's actually in the dollar given this global conflict china is at a major, major cross roads here, because this is not strengthening china. china desperately has to buy energy, and energy prices are up, you know, crude oil prices are up $50 food is up 40%, 50%. wheat is skyrocketing. so all of the inputs that china

desperately needs daily are pricing to the moon in dollars so i think china's in a really difficult position today >> yeah. it would seem difficult. we'll see how it all plays from here kyle, thanks a lot kyle bass. >> thank you we have breaking news out of washington on ukraine relief ylan mui has the details hi, ylan >> hi, michael senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said republicans and democrats have reached a deal on a government funding package that includes $14 billion in aid to ukraine that is up from an initial white house ask of about $6 billion just yesterday lawmakers were talking about $12 billion. now they're at $14 billion that gives you a sense of how quickly this crisis has escalated. chuck schumer also said there would be $15 billion for covid relief as well the house is expected to vote on this package tomorrow and the goal is to get it through both chambers by the end of this

week, because otherwise, the government will run out of money. guys, back to you. >> this is part of the overall government funding stop gap bill >> absolutely. this would not just be a stop gap bill this would be a full year government spending bill that would cover appropriations through the end of the fiscal year >> wow, all right, for the whole fiscal year. thank you very much. >> i guess we don't want to throw a government shutdown into the mix right now. >> we should be thankful for the things we sidestep at this point. we have 39 minutes to go before the bell the dow is up 150 points it has been all over the place very modest gains. s&p 500 still well below yesterday's open it's down about a 30 of 1% >> still ahead, energy secretary jennifer granholm joins us to talk about today's decision to ban russian oil and what the administration plans to do about sky high crude prices. >> as we head to a break, check out some of today's top searched tickers on cnbc.com. the ten-year yield, followed by crude oil, tesla, the p 50s&0,

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let's check on some individual market movers dick's sporting goods reporting earnings that beat on the top and bottom line. the company saying same-store sales grew 5.9%, faster than the rate in the fourth quarter of 2019, and the stock up about 4%. petco also topping analyst estimates. the pet retailer issuing strong revenue guidance for the rest of 2022 that stock up 9% right now pretty actually strong session for some of the consumer retail names that really have been hit hard >> after a really weak one yesterday with consumer discretionary growing 20% from the highs. >> shares of caterpillar are rallying on the back of a bullish note from jefferies calling the stock long term inflation hedge. up almost 8% >> but first, today is international women's day. up next, we take a kosar look at how women have fared during the pandemic recovery. as we head to break, a check on bonds.

yields are getting a boost today. the ten-year yield up to 1.86%, selling bonds, and today unlike yesterday, it seems to be helping lend support to financials we saw the reverse yesterday ten-year, 1.86%. we'll be right back.

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apple wrapping up its first product event of the year today with a number of announcements including a new budget iphone se here's tim cook on the momentum the company is seeing in user growth >> we're continuing to add new users to iphone at a faster

pace in fact, this past fall, we have added more new users to the iphone 13 lineup than in each of the previous five launches and we're excited for the iphone sc to build on this momentum >> joining us now is our reporter, steve kovac. so steve, what's the idea here in terms of why apple thinks this new less expensive phone will help add users into the apple ecosystem? >> yeah, it's an easy answer 5g we already known that 5g was kind of the catalyst that spurred a supercycle of iphone sales with the iphone 12 in 2020 and the hope is it can do that at the lower end of the market, but the one wrinkle to that is $429 is the price of this thing. that's $30 more than the previous version of the sc so it's going to be really interesting to see in that environment if people are going to still switch over from the cheaper android phones for this more expensive but still budget friendly phone >> did that come as a surprise, and were there any other

announcements today that surprised you? >> that was the main surprise, the price of the sc. the second surprise, mike is going to like this, the mlb deal you can stream exclusive mlb games, two a week every friday, if and when thep lockout ends. you'll want to get on that >> i was going to say, i would like it if they're going to have games, although there is an argument to be make it is making the games less accessible to everybody. it's nice that baseball is still in demand by somebody, like apple. >> i'll be watching. >> good stuff. steve, thank you >> thanks. >> it is international women's day. so we decided to take a look at how women have fared during the economic recovery from covid this was dubbed the shecession, as unemployment surged during covid much higher for women than men, peaking at 16.2%, the blue line, men is the orange. the good news is the recovery has been swift unemployment rate has fallen

sharply and it's basically on par with that of men the bad news, a lot of women have simply not come back into the workforce. participation not back to normal healthy prepandemic levels for women. and actually fell last month it's much lower than that level of participation for men one troubling reason why -- child care it's become even more expensive and even harder to find. take a look at the labor force participation among women with young kids under 6 years old it's 28 percentage points lower than men with young kids, and ten points lower than women with school aged children so you can see why they're not going back to work according to wells fargo, if we could get women with kids under 6 just to match the rate of women with older kids, that's 1 million more women in the workforce. how do we do that? address the child care issue people have not come back to work at day care facilities. employment at child day care centers remains down 12.4% since

covid. far steeper than the 1.9% drop in total employment. that's hundreds of thousands of fewer spots available for kids and their family worker pay has not kept up with overall wage increases in the sector and yet the cost of child care has surged for families this is not a new problem. we have had a broken child care system in this country for a long time. it's just bad economics. it is indicative of the fact it's holding us back in terms of the number of workers and making the labor shortage worse these companies if they want to address getting more workers, government, need to invest more in this area >> i was going to say it's probably the biggest single pool of workers who could get back into the workforce, loosen up the labor force, and probably want to on some level, women with younger kids. although, remember when the push for build back better was in there, and there was child care credits and all that in there, people were wondering if that would have been a fix simply because it would have thrown so much money into the preschool and day care economies than

maybe prices just go up. it's really difficult to kind of do it with one stroke, but it's crucial. >> the consensus around the industry is it needs federal funding, as do schools there's a community good, and wells fargo has done a lot of work i got a lot of charts from them. they said the pandemic has left 460,000 families still in need of alternative child care arrangements because people aren't coming back to work >> an important little sticking point in the economy for a day like today time for cnbc news update with rahel solomon. >> hi, mike. hi, sara here's what's happening at this hour russia has announced a new cease-fire in ukraine tomorrow morning. it's also ready to set up humanitarian corridors many of the corridors lead to russia, a move criticized by president zelenskyy in previous

cease-fires. lawmakerers are closing in on a spending bill to provide aide for ukraine and the covid response the bill is expected to include $14 billion for ukraine and at least $15 billion to battle covid. majority leader schumer says he expect said to pass the bill by the end of the week. some sports news aaron rodgers is staying with the green bay packers as the highest paid player in the nfl he's reportedly signed a four-year, $200 million contract that includes $153 million in guaranteed pay meanwhile, multiple reports say that the seattle seahawks have traded their star quarterback, russell wilson, to the denver broncos for a huge package of players and draft picks. so sara, maybe this means ciara will also be in denver very cool. >> that is what i was thinking as well. rahel solomon, just you and i, probably not that many others. >> yeah. >> rahel solomon, thank you. >> we have about 25 minutes to go here before the bell. here's where we stand. the dow and s&p 500 have now

turned negative. got some momentum at the beginning of the hour and have seemed to lose that. we're down .4% on the s&p, adding to losses we saw yesterday. nasdaq just barely positive. russell 2000 small caps up more than 1%. a big divergence bank of america is down about 20% over the past month. but it is getting the pop today on an upgrade by one analyst at baird betting on the stock, next and later, wharton professor of finance jeremy siegel joins us on why not to use the war in ukraine as an excuse not to raise rates. reel join us later on "closing bell."

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banks have had a rough run of late amid big swings in the bond market and growing global unease bank of america shares down roughly 12% year to date, but the stock did get a boost today after a baird analyst upgraded its rating to neutral. joining us, the analyst behind the call, daifd vid george good to talk to you about this we just were talking about an evaluation call. what's really behind this idea that maybe the risk/reward looks better in some of the big banks? >> yeah, and good afternoon. thanks for having me on, mike. to be clear, our call on b of a is really one that the upgrade is to neutral. we had a sell on bank of america. we have been cautious on banks for really the last two to three months just being of the view that the risk/reward tradeoff

was pretty unattractive. and now, as you mentioned, with banks trading down significantly over the last several weeks and b of a in particular over the last month, we feel like the time to sell b of a shares is over and now we're kind of patiently waiting for an opportunity to get more constructive on the stock. >> what would you need to see to do that? and what do you think all the weakness lately in banks reflects >> a couple things so for the most part, all else equal, sara, our views are going to change with price and valuation really has a big driver in our work, and expectations when bank of america was at $48, $49, $50 were very high banks are cyclical companies and i think that investors and market participants broadly got overly excited about the prospect for rate hikes and the ancillary benefits that manifest themselves from that as we're finding, this inflation

situation is stoking fears of not only a recession but the potential of the proliferation potentially of a credit event as we go through 2022 here. >> do you not think that those fears are well founded or are you suggesting that there are some banks that can evade them >> sure. i think for the most part, mike, many of the domestic banks, companies like wells fargo, pnc, stocks that we do like, are reasonably well positioned to withstand a more difficult economy. but really, from our perspective, bank stocks and the market in general has been very optimistic with respect to not only domestic gdp growth but also the rate outlook, and we're just of the view that finally, after this significant sell-off, that the risk reward tradeoff for banks is starting to look better but we're not quite to the point where it's time to get

aggressive throughout 2020, we were one of the only firms that got very constructive on banks, and now that it just became in our view a big consensus trade at the beginning of 2022 and late 2021. and now some of the air we think has come out of the banks, and we're hopeful we'll get a better chance to get more constructive. >> the one thing you didn't address is the linkages to european banks, which of course, have a lot more of the spillover effect from the russian financial system being shut off and the potential for a european recession because of all the exposure to places like russia what do we need to know as far as the risks around u.s. banks and who is most exposed? >> you're right. there's very little direct russian exposure in the u.s. banking sector, sara, as you mentioned. but it's never really the direct exposure that gets banks it's really the knock-on effects that have an impact on banks and bank credit quality. unfortunately, the industry, as you both know, goes through

significant stress testing every year for economic shocks like this but as we sit here today, market participants are expecting very little challenges as it relates to credit quality, and if oil stays here, and food prices continue to remain elevated, i think it's very reasonable to expect the consumer credit is going to become certainly more challenging for banks as we go through the year there's really not going to be significant direct european exposure it's really, from our perspective, the knock-on effects. what impact does higher inflation have on the consumer what kind of impact does higher inflation have on corporate profitability and their aggregate credit quality in general. >> certainly questions all investors are trying to figure out right now. david, good to speak beyou thank you very much. >> thank you >> david george. >> when we come back, the analyst behind the note that sent caterpillar shares soaring

today. why the stock could be your best inflation hedge, when we take you inside the market zoin and one programming note be sure to tune in for cnbc's brand-new primetime series, no retreat. business bootcamp. that's tonight at 10:00 p.m. eastern right here on cnbc . i am here because they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere. i am here.

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80% get genetically meaningful health info from their 23andme dna reports. 80%. that's 8 out of 10 people who can get something enlightening. something empowering. something that could change everything. info that could give you greater control of your own health, and it's right there in your dna. so, if 80% get genetically meaningful health info, the question is, will you be part of the 80%? do you know what the future holds? welcome back we have a great lineup coming your way in the second hour of "closing bell. energy secretary jennifer granholm will join us to talk about the u.s. ban of russian energy today and the surging prices at the pump >> a top analyst will help us break down the most important announcements out of apple's product aevent we'll talk about how the russia/ukraine crisis is impacting the crypto space, and

jim press will tell us what the surging nickel price could mean for automakers but first, we have less than 12 minutes to go in the trading day. we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. joining us today is virtues investment partner joe terranova. welcome, joe we'll kick it off with the broader market a volatile session for stocks. the dow and s&p 500 turning lower this hour. starting the hour higher the dow was up 586 at the session high, joe. the nasdaq is flat right now it was up 2.5% it was down 1.5% that was all intraday. what is going on this is an indecisive market >> the only thing where we could be clear about the conditions in the market is that we have no clarity on anything, sara. we don't know the inflationary pressures, how far they will be intensified, what the response is from the federal reserve, and the russia/ukraine conflict, we're not sure what direction that ultimately is going to take so persistent volatility is the

single most challenged condition for investors currently, and markets are spinning in a lot of different places and probably ending up in the same spot. institutional buyers tend to show up on the downside. they have been missing and a lot of that is coming from corporate buybacks and overhead. it's a sell the rally mentality, so for now, there's no visibility, and that means the persistent volatility is going to be the dominant theme for markets. >> that and all these businesses coming out and announcing changes to russia. we just got word from coca-cola that it will be suspending business in russia it was basically a brief statement, but as far as coke revenues, it's a tiny chunk, about 1% of revenues, russia and ukraine for coca-cola. 2% of volume pepsi is actually a bigger player in russia we're trying to figure out what's going on there because they have about 4.3% of revenue from russia and a few billion

dollars in terms of exposure they have a dairy business in pepsi as well. the "wall street journal" reported pepsi is looking at options including potentially selling off its russia business. but here from coca-cola, once mcdonald's went, it was like anybody with any russian exposure had to -- >> in a sense, because mcdonald's does have a significant commitment there and has for years. it's very tough to quantify what any of this means except that it underscores this idea of disengagement, of localization, deglobalization. so i think that something that we're going to have to reckon with for a while, with the growth effects that are also going to be absorbed here in europe >> supply chain, i think there are questions about that, whether there are plants in these companies don't really spell that out mondelez has a plant in ukraine that is shut down, and also, does this ever reverse >> that's the thing. typically, sanctions kind of stay for a while, and we'll see if voluntary sanctions by companies do so too and what the benchmarks will be for them to decide that. meantime, oil prices up again

today. trading around 14-year highs after the biden administration announced a ban on russian oil natural gas and coal imports conocophillips ceo joined cnbc earlier today to weigh in on the administration's decision. >> i know we're focused on the short term and trying to resolve, send a message to mr. putin and what's going on in ukraine, but wi need to think about the medium and long term impact if this lasts for a while and we continue to stop the exports, it's going to have a material impact on the market for a longer period of time than we need to think about that >> joe, obviously, material impact for a longer period of time is something the market is trying to sort out what's your take on things here, both with the short term scramble for physical supplies and then what it's going to mean for the market for energy for a while to come? >> mike, i do think a lot of this has been priced in to the energy market already. it seems as though somewhere around $130 per barrel for wt 6

the right pricing understanding that we're going to be banning the imports of russian oil i think it's also important to point out that a lot of social responsibility in the actions on the part of oil traders and corporations has already been not to transact on russian oil the russians being denied access to s.w.i.f.t. payments that created obviously an environment where you were unsure how you would financially be transacting for any type of barrels. but we hadtraders already step away, so self-sanctioning was in place for the oil market mike, i think the bigger challenge comes in a lot of other commodities. comes for agriculture and a lot of base and precious metals. there's no opec for agriculture or precious metals how do you increase the supply there? to me, that's the bigger

challenge. i think oil prices $125, $130, that's priced in it's going to stay here. we already know that that's a known known >> exactly, and you're seeing things like nickel and wheat, of course, have tremendous dislocations on the supply issues meantime, caterpillar is the top performer on the dow today stock up 7% or so after jefferies upgraded the stock to a buy. saying that it's a strong hedge against commodity and general inflation. joining us is the analyst behind that call, steven vokeman. good to have you on here what are you expecting in terms of an investment cycle, this uptick in demand where might it come from for cat, and what your case that it's not priced into the stock yet? >> great, sure so thanks for having me. i think joe actually just teed me up well with all this because it's clearly oil and gas, but it's a lot of other things as well i'm sure your listeners know, 17% of natural gas, 15% each of thermal, seaborn coal, seaborn

met coal, 11% of oil, 5% each of copper, aluminum, nickel, and even more in platinum. so russia is the source of a lot of these things. i would agree that that market is essentially cut off from the west at this point and probably will be for the next several years and so that's a higher inflation environment, at least for the commodities. and as you said, cat has historically been a great store of value during the 1970s, i hope that's not where we're headed again, but during the 1970s, cat was a massive outperformer for a decade, and as a store of value. and i think to the second point, we're going to need to find other sources of these commodities. and we're going to have to build out capacity in other places, and cat is a key producer of equipment for both mining and oil and gas. >> but is it more of an inflation beneficiary than it is one of global growth which is slowing on this whole thing with russia being cut off, the ripple effects on europe,

the potential for another european recession, and any spillover effects there. isn't that traditionally how caterpillar is judged by the market >> well, i hope we're not right with this, but it may outperform by just doing better than a weak market having said that, there's going to be a lot of growth. we need to replace a lot of capacity in various mining sections and also in oil and gas. germany is building terminals and they're going to need a source for that, and building the terminals also uses equipment. let's not forget, we do have this build out of infrastructure that is still sort of in the pipeline we haven't really spent even a dollar of that yet, but it's all approved and ready to go i actually think the growth side of this is going to be okay. but either way, i think you win. >> stephen, thank you very much. >> thanks. >> joe, before we let you go, we

want to zone in on your top trade idea in this market, all over the place market. what are you going for >> i have made a new purchase after listening to the president, it's clear evs are still top of mind for the administration sensata technologies it's a small cap company based in massachusetts at about $9 billion market cap reasonable valuation somewhere around 17 for a pe but this is a company that is in the charging infrastructure. it's in the electrification, it's contributing thermal components, sensors, fuses, and we see the growth in evs, sensata technologies is going to be a significant contributor to that >> joe, i guess it's the question for any manufacturer in this general area, but what's the exposure on their part to inputting commodity costs and things like that >> i think it's significant for

in particular internal combustion engine producers. i think, mike, that's why you're seeing both ford and gm correct significantly. but i think this is going to elevate once again and kind of revive that ev trade that was in place for the better part of late 2020 into early 2021. >> all right, joe, well, tesla up 2.5%. obviously the bellwether in that group. joe terranova, thank you for joining us today we'll catch you again soon >> with two minutes left to go, we actually are plumbing toward the morning lows here. another renewed sell-off, and actually, very heavy volumes, not just a skew. advancing volume well ahead of declining volume the average stock is outperforming the indexes today, but there's still plenty of volume it's not been a panic or a rush for the exits. it's been an orderly methodical reduction in exposures

s&p trading now below 4200, and has bottomed there in previous days, but not today. i did want to take a look, too, at the equal weighted s&p relative to the headline index on the year to date basis. it had been -- that's the equal weighted russell 1,000 a clear out performer. the mega cap stocks have been the weight on it 7.5% down. the equal weighted russell 1000, two months and more into the year, is not insignificant, but almost five percentage point outperformance the volatility index is down a point, about 35. when it's at 36 or so, you gotta have these 2% swings in the index on a given day or every couple days in order for it to keep up at these levels. some volatility fatigue right there, even if there's no real sign we have seen any crescendo of selling in the markets right now. the russell 2000 has been an out performer, was up almost 2% earlier. it's now up about more than .5%.

another new closing low we're looking at for the s&p 500 on this move, but again, more just a slide. and we did have that rally, middle of the day, showing there is a sensitivity to any headline that suggests we get de-escalation or some of the pressure, upward pressure coming off commodities. >> that's going to be a disappointing close for the bulls. down .7% there for the s&p welcome back to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen along with mike santoli today. coming up this hour, energy secretary jennifer granholm on the new u.s. ban on russian oil and gas imports and the impact that will have on energy prices. >> first up, on the markets, jeremy siegel, finance professor of wharton joins the conversation professor, it was an up and down day on wall street got a rally in the nasdaq as much as 2.5% it closes down .3% today was supposed to be a

comeback day after an ugly day yesterday. what does this action tell you about what is getting priced in? >> well, i mean, as i said three or four weeks ago, i thought nasdaq would be in a bear market and s&p in a correction,and i think we're there. i'm beginning to find it interesting from a longer term perspective, for long term investors. i think the bigger problem, more than even energy prices, is that the fed does not just use ukraine as an excuse not to raise rates. because we have a very fundamental inflation problem that goes way beyond oil prices. and it would be a big mistake. the medicine will just have to be stronger down the road if they don't start raising rates and controlling the inflation. i think we're going to get a very bad print coming up on

march 10th in a couple days. i think almost 8% year over year, and believe it, i think we could get to 10% year over year on the headline. and to me, it seems silly to debate should we go from zero to .25%, 25 basis points, or zero to 50, when we could have 10% inflation. i think we have to be more aggressive going forward i know the market is delicate. i know that's a problem. but that's no reason not to take the medicine we have to take to slow the inflation >> professor, i mean, certainly not just the market being fragile but the fed doesn't have to decide on how many it's going at the next meeting. it just has to do the first one and then we can wait and see, right? it doesn't necessarily have to just worry about the markets but also the idea that what is happening with oil prices at a certain level becomes a restraint on consumer spending

and maybe even a break on the economy in itself, so maybe it's going do some of the fed's work for it >> well, that's true in terms of slowing the economy, but one good thing -- there's two good things to remember about this oil surge. i know there's been a lot of talk that all surges have preceded almost every recession in the post-war period, but one has to realize that the u.s. economy is only 25% as oil intensive as it was in the 1970s. in other words, we use 75% less energy to produce a dollar of gdp than we did 40 years ago so certainly, it's going to hurt on your -- in your wallet and filling up your gas tank, but in terms of total output, it is not as important as it once was. secondly, we are virtually energy independent really, we don't import anywhere near the amount of oil that we did in the 1970s

so that every dollar that goes out of a consumer's pocket for higher energy is going in back mostly to american pockets of producers. now, that doesn't reflect in the stock market because capitalization of energy stocks has fallen so low, but we are still not going to have the impact of these prices as we did 40 or 50 years ago that really caused one of the most severe recessions in the post-war period >> more companies announcing changes in russian business. we have been on this all day long here on cnbc and all show long pepsi, who we have been waiting for, pepsico making an announcement through a memo from their ceo, who sends a note to associates saying they are going to, given the horrific events happening in ukraine, we're announcing the suspension of sale of pepsi cola and our brands in russia also suspending capital

investments in all advertising and promotional activities in russia the ceo does note daily essentials like milk and other dairy offerings, baby formula and baby food will continue to be sold to the russian people, and just to underscore how difficult some of these decisions are for some of these multinational companies, in the memo, it says they have 20,000 russian associates and 40,000 russian agriculture workers in the supply chain, as they face significant challenges and uncertainty ahead. clearly a statement when it comes to suspending sale of pepsi cola in russia it's a market they entered at the height of the cold war to create common ground between the u.s. and soviet union. and coca-cola came out and suspended all business, that's about 1% of revenue. pepsi has 4% of the revenue. they have been considered one of the most exposed global consumer staples to the market. it sounds like they'll still get business there, but suspending capital investments, advertising, promotions. they have this delicate dance,

sort of like p&g, which is still from a humanitarian perspective going to keep some of the staples on the shelves professor, do you think we're going to see this in earnings? i know it's not hugely material for some of these companies, the russia exposure, but between russia, ukraine, europe, which is expected to slow down from all of this, earnings get readjusted, don't they >> yeah, certainly and i applaud all of this pressure the more pressure the better but again, remember, stocks are really long term assets that capitalize years into the future this pressure against russia, we don't know how it's eventually going to work out, but some people, i mean, it's brought together the west. it brought together nato it may deter china going into taiwan you know, this pressure, if it succeeds and putin not achieving

his objectives, is a big gain for the world. and if he gets toppled one way or removed from office, these firms are going to move back in. and we'll have a better world because of that. and i think when you think about should a stock price go down say 10% because it is not dealing in russia, the math doesn't work out that way despite the fact it's a short term hit, despite the anxiety that all these events are causing, looking beyond that, there are positive factors >> you know, from a longer term perspective, globalization and even the secular decline in commodities as essential point of our economy has been given credit for higher valuations in equities it's part of the long term story for why equities have actually done well and have generally gotten higher valuations

is there a danger that we're reversing some of that longer term >> well, we're still not too commodity prices we were in the '70s or even the oil price -- well, i guess we just about hit it as we were before the financial crisis by the way, i heard some people saying, you know, back in 2008, and then we had a recession. that was really caused by the subprime mortgages and the collapse of the financial sector oil had not too much to do with that recession >> but look at -- but sorry to cut you off, but we have to mention the yield curve. what about the signal there? it's like 25 basis points, it keeps flattening and and then inverting. >> we're going to have to invert it and we're going to have to - >> isn't that a recessionary signal >> we must raise the short term rate above it, and by the way, i think that's going to be much more common in the future to have inverted curves

they don't have as much of the scara prognostications that they did before we're going to have to raise that short rate, in my opinion, eventually to 3%, 4%, 5% in order to tame 8% and 9% recession. the long rate, 2.5% and 2.75%. don't be afraid to do that it's going to be worse if we refrain from that. we'll have more inversions in our future than we had in our past >> all right, that would be a big adjustment we'll see if the fed is willing to go ahead and do that. professor, thank you very much we'll talk to you again soon >> thank you apple unveiling a new budget iphone sc today at its product avent. it will cost $429, up from $300 for the 2020 model the new phone will start shipping later this month. joining us to break down all of the announcements and what it means for the stock, colin gillis colin, does all of this

collectively, all these product announcements, move the needle much in terms of unit expectations for iphone or for apple earnings at this point >> it certainly is an incremental net positive, particularly because they're going to start shipping on march 18th, so we're going to get a little bit of the unit shipment into the march quarter then the june quarter, which is historically a little weak, this is going to give a nice boost to it as well the key thing to the iphone se is this is going tobring in switchers into the apple ecosystem. not only does apple get the sale, the revenue of selling the phone, but it's going to continue to drive the services revenue, and that's the piece of the business that's continuing to be extremely high margin, is growing at the fastest rate, and that's the piece that investors want to see continue to grow >> our reporter steve kovac highlighted that the price of the new se is slightly more than the previous one he said that came as a surprise.

clearly, there's inflationary pressure and supply chain issues all over the economy how much control and pricing power does apple have here >> you know, so apple has a tremendous amount of pricing power. this is still their entry based phone. one thing i would comment, is a 5g phone and the 5g component is one of the most expensive pieces that go into an iphone apple wants to maintain its margin structure they're fantastic at doingthat so they're able to push that price up a little bit. i think you're going to see consumers are still going to respond and purchase the phone >> colin, just wondering your thoughts on the way the stock itself is situated right now it's obviously outperformed the big nasdaq names as a group. it's down 14% from its high, but it's showing like it's got kind of a quality safety bid into it. does that make it more attractive in this environment or do you think that that means it's maybe some more downside to catch down to the nasdaq >> no, i think that does make

it -- it's considered right now a defensive name if you think about what's going to be the next catalyst? it's going to be march earnings and then the capital return program that's going to get announced. this is a stock that already has a 22 quarterly dividend. that dividend is likely to go up maybe 7%, 8%, 9%, which could be upwards of another $100 billion between the dividend and the stock buyback. this is a company that still continues to have a strong iphone upgrade cycle still pulling in new users and it's just a massive cash flow generator there's nothing wrong with the ecosystem. and just i think it's going to trade sideways until we get closer to the march quarter earnings >> well, it has traded, what, pretty much in line with the market down 11% so far this year. >> on a year to date basis, but from the highs it's done better than the nasdaq 100. >> colin, thank you. >> thank you >> colin gillis.

>> we have breaking news on yet another company pulling out of russia this hour seema modi has the name for us >> general electric, the next company to suspend operations in russia with the exception of providing essential medical equipment and supporting existing power services to people in the region a spokesperson for ge telling me we continue to work closely with the proper authorities to insure compliance with sanctions as well as all laws and regulations, but ge here suspending operations in russia as it pertains to footprint, in russia, it has about less than 1,000 employees, and revenues that represent about 1% of total revenue in russia. shares basically unchanged after hours. back to you. >> the great western retreat continues from corporate america. seema, thank you >> we're just getting started here on the second hour of "closing bell. up next, we'll be joined by energy secretary jennifer granholm with her take on the

new u.s. ban on russian oil and gas imports. what that means for energy prices >> and later, rebecca patterson on whether she thinks a crypto comeback could be on the horizon. we're back in two minutes.

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it was a wild session here on wall street here's a look at the dow action today. spiking around midsession on a hopeful headline on ukraine before retreating and ending down by 184 points meantime, treasury yields have seen big swings as well. up today to the upside, the u.s. ten-year back above 1.8% joining us is priya misra at td securities it's great to have you it's a bit of a whipsaw. bond market volatility if anything is now exceeding equity market volatility on the short term as you have trying to handicap what the fed might do going up against obviously hugely inflationary commodity moves and the safety bid, at

least somewhat, from investors here how do you think that leaves us in terms of where yields might go from here >> so i think volatility is here to stay for a couple reasons political risk is very hard to price in you have binary outcomes as you talked about flight to quality with everything going on in ukraine. plus, we have got a fed that is admittedly nimble. chair powell uses the nimble phrase, which means they have left the 50 basis point hike further down the road on the table. specifically brought that up last week. so the market has to price in the probability that if inflation doesn't decelerate as the fed is expecting, maybe the fed has to speed up the pace of hikes or that they can be more aggressive on quantitative tightening so we have a hiking cycle that we're about to embark on next week, in our view, without forward guidance, and that's what marked the last two hiking cycles then i have to say inflation is inherently uncertainty very hard to focus, and now you have tighter financial conditions and how that's going

to feed through into the economy. there's a lots going on. i would say volatility is here to stay. we are, though, expecting the fed will start to raise rates. because we're at zero. they're going to argue that the economy can handle some rate hikes. we expect interest rates to rise i think the rate hikes that are priced in are fair very much in line with what we're looking for. it's quantitative tightening and any talk of that next week and we think the fed starts that, that's going to push longer end rates higher more on the real rate component rather than inflation, but i do think the ten-year is likely to continue to rise even with the stagflation shock we're living through. >> what about credit risk? which we have seen rise. and we are paying attention to it what is the signal you're getting from corporate bonds right now? >> right so i think we're seeing there is premium going on we're also seeing the market pricing in greater credit risk because of exposure. i should say, there's a direct

exposure to russia/ukraine, but then also exposure to europe or somebody else who might be exposed to russia. i think the knock-on effects are still being felt there's not a ton of price discovery. i am worried about credit particularly because there's no clear policy backstop to credit. and i think that widening is likely to continue the one place where we have seen it in the rates market is in the very front end we're seeing dollar funding pressure showing up. that's where i am a little less concerned because we have central bank swap lines, a lot of liquidity in the system i'm less concerned about overnight and three-month cp, but credit spreads, all risk assets are getting repriced to cheaper levels and credit is part of that >> yeah, it's reassuring you dont see too much of an alarm in the short term funding markets i wonder what your read is on the treasury yield curve sara was mentioning earlier, it's compressed down to about a

quarter percentage point between the two and ten-year that seems flat as the fed begins to hike rates, but what is the takeaway? >> i think the flat curve is telling the markets to be concerned the fed might overdo it, because they're nimble, inflation is high. so do they raise rates too much and do a lot of qt and have to reverse course because the consumer would be dealing with, you know, not just higher mortgage rates, lower stock prices as well as higher prices for everything they're paying for so i think that's the fear, which is why the yield curve is pricing in rate cuts for the first time in the last month we have actually priced in cuts in 2024, so the market is saying the fed will raise rates this year and next year and turn around and cut rates i'm hoping that the dot plot next week of chair powell can talk about how they're going to try very hard to achieve this soft landing and not overdo it if it means pausing in the

hiking cycle, this may be more volatile, but in the process, they prevent that overdoing of policy mistake idea. the yield curve is telling you the fed might make a policy mistake. i think as a policymaker, they want to push back against it because that's very negative for risk assets as well as the economy if the fed pushes us into a recession >> in that case, might be like after 2015, one rate hike and they waited a few quarters for the next one thank you very much. great to get your thoughts today. priya misra. >> thank you >> coming up, energy secretary jennifer granholm joins us following america's ban of energy imports from russia and the impact on the oil market >> and later, former chrysler president jim press on how e tondtrnickel prices could hit thau iusy.

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after hours earnings movers going in ought zt directions bumble moving higher the dating company reported full year guidance that came in line with estimates it also says it's discontinuing operations in russia, removing all of its apps from the apple app store and play store in belarus and russia the stock is up 22%. look at stitchfix moving down

19.5% after reporting revenue in line revenue per client increasing 18% and clients increasing 4%, but it's the outlook the company issuing weaker third quarter guidance that is sinking the stock down 19%, and now the stock is down more than 80% over the last year or so. the company in the press release says they're still having challenges onboarding and converting clients with their clothes outside of the subscription service selling them directly, which did grow 29% mike, let's go back to you for a look at tightening financial conditions as we were just talking about. the market is doing a lot of the fed's work >> it is there's different ways to define it, very interesting what goes into financial conditions well, the absolute level of yields, credit spreads, volatility measures, the value of the dollar. all of those things together is the goldman sachs u.s. financial conditions index in blue, the super loose levels and then reversed very hard. but what i like about this is it

disaggregates and the orange line is the financial conditions index excluding the equity market measures. mainly equity price earnings ratios, valuations it's a low loosening of financial conditions so what this shows you is we're very much in the range outside of what's already gone on in the stock market, so it's not to say you want to shrug it off, but it seems like we're not at levels that are particularly critical if you go back even pre-covid and shortly after covid. >> dollar in there >> it usually is >> that's one of the easiest ways the fed uses the tightening you think the fed -- you think ultimately, the fed looks at this a big component. >> there are things like triple b corporate bond spreads which maybe there's a number they have in mind. i don't think we're quite there on any of the gauges >> what is the latest on how many rate hikes are expected

>> i thinkit's still four plus if you just look at the way the bond market itself is priced, the two-year yield, 1.6% today that includes plenty of rate hikes over the next two years. that's the way you kind of pull apart what the two-year is suggesting >> what about the expectation on the balance sheet? because priya misra just said that's going to be the key for the markets, and that's kind of a wild card? >> exactly i was going to say i don't know if there's a consensus expectation on the balance sheet because they have not detailed their plans in terms of when to initiate reduction and how fast. >> a crazy fete meeting next week >> oil prices meantime center stage. jumping again today after the biden administration announced it would ban energy imports from russia, including oil, coal, and natural gas. joining us for a cnbc exclusive interview is u.s. energy secretary jennifer granholm. great to have you, secretary granholm, from the conference in houston. nice to see you. >> thank you glad to be on. >> my question is about the

impact, because the u.s. isn't a major importer of energy from russia say like the europeans, our friends there did not ban oil because they're too dependent on it so how much of an impact do you think it will ultimately have in terms of hurting putin >> well, first of all, i think it's really important that we not finance putin's war. and i think that's why so many people in america havefelt tha way, too surveys have shown over the past few days that up to 70% of americans agree that they are willing to even sacrifice themselves by paying more at the pump in order to not fund that war. if you combine this, of course, with the sanctions that have already been collectively announced against putin, these are extremely damaging now, let me just say that we know that the united states is in a privileged position in this way because we have -- we don't rely that much on russian oil and we don't rely on russian gas at all we know that our allies across

the world may not be in that same position, and so we are not asking them to do the same thing. but for us, for our nation, for our citizens this is an important statement >> should we not be boosting energy production right now in this country to meet demand, both domestically and in places like europe? >> we should be boosting all around the world and in the united states. and we should be investing in moving toward clean energy as well this is what our message is here we want to see increased supply. we want to see it in the united states, to the extent that the industry can do that we want to see us move as well toward solutions that don't have us relying on fossil fuels from countries that do not have our interests at heart we have to both an accelerate >> there's been a lot of criticism for this administration in particular for being tough on oil companies and limiting production, not allowing the federal leases on

federal land, not allowing the keystone pipeline to go through. is there some regret and potential change >> there is nothing that would have increased production if the keystone pipeline had been approved, it wouldn't have even been built by now. so that's just a talking point this administration, under this administration, oil is almost at record production, by the end of this year, it will be at record production natural gas is at record production liquefied natural gas is at record production. every molecule that we can liquefy, we are exporting in terms of natural gas, if there's a facility to liquefy it there are six -- excuse me, 9,000 permits that have been issued that are not being taken advantage of i say that to encourage the oil and gas sector to take advantage of the permits they have there are 20 million acres of public lands that are under

lease right now by the oil and gas industry that are not being used, that are not being produced on. and remember that 90% of oil drilling is on private lands and not public lands so this is not about that. those are talking points what we want to do is to say we're in an plaemergency. we have to increase supply so we can pak sure people are pro protected at the pump, and we have to move to clean energy solutions with great accelerating both right now, but clean is in the end where we should be so that we don't find ourselves in this position again. >> secretary granholm, given that it is an emergency and given that you're trying to access supplies everywhere and you mentioned you don't want to be financing putin, is the administration any closer to trying to encourage production by other countries to fill in some of these gaps and i guess a similar point, would you look to try to close

off revenue from the sale of russian energy products to other customers, to other countries at this point >> yeah, i mean, as i say, the other countries are in a different position because we do not rely so much upon russian oil and we don't import russian gas at all, natural gas, we don't import coal, we're in a different position and that's good for us, but we want to make sure that we're not putting pressure on countries who simply cannot survive without access to those resources. but who are themselves, for example, our european allies, had just announced a plan to accelerate their movement toward clean. and to your first question, we're calling upon all producers across the globe to increase supply we have got to make up for 8.5 million barrels of russian oil that could potentially come off. that's what they export, so we need to make up for that so we want to encourage producers around the globe,

including in the united states >> there's no quick fix, as you know, secretary granholm, and $4.17 is the price for the average price per gallon of gas for regular gasoline in this country right now. how high do you expect it to go, and how long will that last? >> that's the question we don't know, of course, we don't know how long putin is goingto terrorize ukraine. we do not know how long his war will last. but let's be clear these increases are because of vladimir putin this is putin's war. these are putin's increases. and we cannot allow it to stand. so it may take a bit in this sacrifice we're fortunate we're not asked to sacrifice our sons and daughters to go fight this war but we may have to take on other sacrifices, and it makes me so proud that so many americans are willing to pay a little bit more at the pump in order to accelerate the end of this war

>> there have been calls for additional reserve releases globally in international reserves that countries have control of is that something that's an active discussion? >> yes >> it is, and do you have a sense of when there might come to be a decision on that >> yeah, i think there's a sense of urgency about this. we are in active discussions with our allies, as you know, we just did a release of 60 million barrels collectively, as a collective action, with the international energy agency last week and we will be having further discussions both internally to the u.s. but also with our allies >> there's also some concern that in an effort to boost the production of oil globally, that the u.s. is maybe being friendlier than it would ordinarily to places like iran, venezuela, to try to fill the gaps in oil that are not our friends. can you address some of those

concerns >> well, i know that the biden administration has conversations with allies and adversaries all the time i know that we are looking to create partnerships with countries that may be unusual in the broader spectrum of energy, including energy technologies. i have been meeting with folks here who are from all manner of countries who also want to be part of the solution and the move toward clean energy and decarbonized fossil fuels. so there are a series of discussions happening around the world, and that's all i can say about that >> but is it your expectation that the iranian barrels do come back online if there is a deal here on the nuclear agreement soon >> that's certainly something that is a possibility. but of course, you have to get to the deal first, and the deal -- the reason for the deal is a denuclearized iran.

that's the reason for the deal if there is a byproduct of increased supply, so be it, but the deal is all about making sure the world is safer because iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon >> and secretary granholm, can you give us a sense of just other things being explored? i'm sure it's pretty much everything, but whether it be trying to ease petroleum taxes or something else that you're looking at in terms of potential shortterm levers to pull >> yeah, as i mentioned, the release from the strategic petroleum reserve is one thing there's a whole array of ideas that are being kicked around i'm not going to talk about them i'll let the biden administration release that when it's ready, but suffice it to say, there's a lot that's on the table. >> and finally, secretary granholm, you said the timeframe on the elevated prices depends on putin and the war what is the off ramp for these energy sanctions >> well, you know, this is a

very fluid situation we do not know what is the next shoe to drop in this war against ukraine. so we are taking this one day at a time clearly, we don't want to see people hurting at the pump for a long period of time, which is why we're looking at increasing production and that's really the most important thing to do. ultimately, it's difficult to imagine flipping a switch and seeing those barrels, those russian barrels come online and be acceptable around the world, given the egregious activities of vladimir putin. so this is why increasing production is really -- and increasing clean energy, transitioning to clean energy are the solutions for being able to reduce those prices at the pump >> but doesn't clean energy just raise oil prices even more because we're still dependent very heavily on fossil fuels and it's very expensive to get there? >> it is not expensive clean energy is the cheapest form of energy wind and solar are the cheapest forms ofenergy so no, it does not

in fact, if you drive an electric vehicle, not that everybody can afford one, but if there were a transition to an electric vehicle and you filled up today at the pump with your vehicle, it would cost you maybe between $50 and $60 to fill it up if you charged it at home, it would cost you maybe $12 to fill it up. so no, clean energy is abundant. it is cheap. it is accessible, and the prices continue to drop and that's why it's very important for us to continue to press. there are new technologies that make energy even moribundant and dispatchable and base load power, those may not be ready yet, but on the renewable side, it's ready to go >> i ask because even elon musk is advocating for increasing energy production, which very unlikely source, as he's the king of making evs >> i think everybody recognizes that we have to increase supply right now because we are in an emergency. at the same time as we need to move toward clean. >> secretary jennifer granholm, thank you very much.

an important day to have you we appreciate the time energy secretary of the united states >> and for more on the energy space, can't miss a cnbc special report, oil shock, tonight, 6:00 p.m. eastern time, featuring ceos of occidental, pioneer, and williams will they meet the call to boost energy production and how do they feel about this latest move >> some ceos have been talking about it we just need some sense from the administration that we should do more drilling, and well, that was -- >> she gave it, said it was a talk point that they have been discouraged to do that because they're still sitting on plenty of leases that are not done. some important questions also noteworthy she hinted at the strategic petroleum release. >> clearly looking for all sources and fixes here >> time now for a cnbc news update with shepard smith. >> thanks. from the news on cnbc, here's what's happening u.s. intelligence agencies estimate between 2,000 and 4,000

russian troops have been killed since the invasion of ukraine began. that from a congressional hearing just today but with contrast, the associated press estimates an district 48 service members were killed over 20 years in the war in afghanistan >> after a century of failed attempts, congress today finally passing a bill that makes lynching a federal hate crime. it's name for the black teenager, emmett till, whose murder in mississippi in 1955 helped galvanize the civil rights movement. the emmett till anti-lynching act is headed to president biden's desk he's expected to sign it into law. >> and florida's republican controlled state senate passed a bill today that forbided teachers from talking about sexual orientation and gender identity in years kindergarten through third grade. critics call it the don't say gay bill they argue it marginalized the lgbtq community. it bill heads to governor

desantis who has expressed his support but has not explicitly agreed to sign tonight, they bought an armored truck to take supplies into ukraine and bring refugees out their story on the news, right after our cnbc special report, oil shock. that's at 6:00 eastern important programming in this day. news time, 7:00 eastern. cnbc sara, back to you. >> we'll see youthen thank you. shep smith >> up next, bridgewater director of investment research rebecca patterson on how the conflict pa teen russia and ukraine could imcthe future of cryptocurrencies we'll be right back. so you don't lose sight of the big picture, even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim® is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools. dedicated trade desk pros and a passionate trader community

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crypto one of the few areas finishing in the green today a move higher comes as the digital currency plays a growing hole in the russia/ukraine crisis and the white house has an executive order to review crypto currencies. joining us is rebecca patterson. when the u.s. and allies put sanctions on russia's central bank, i thought wow, this is a moment for bitcoin, and it did have a strong rally, but since then, has been disappointing i think a lot of the bulls that thought that this war might

really be a game changer in terms of a new use case for the currency how do you perceive it >> i do think this is an important moment for crypto. we have seen capital markets, finance geopolitical tools for some time, but this is the first moment where crypto has played a major role, and we have seen a lot of push and pull we have seen a lot of money going into crypto to go into ukraine to help people there we have seen anecdotal evidence at least of money leaving russia/ukraine trying to get over borders perhaps in an easier way than some other types of money but i think what we have also seen both before the war with fed tightening signals and today is that crypto is still very sensitive to liquidity conditions it's still trading relatively more like a liquidity sensitive asset, like an emerging tech stock, than an alternative store hold of wealth it's still early days. this is an evolving asset class,

but the store hold of wealth is still one to be proven >> yeah, and rebecca, obviously, depending on what angle you observe it from, it takes on a different character. some people are just talking about crypto being essentially another type of software development platform that just is smarter in how it goes about things with collective, you know, protocols and things like that from bridgewater's perspective or from an institutional investor's perspective, what do you think is the real opportunity here down the road >> well, we are seeing this space grow incredibly quickly. there is a momentum here that can become self-fulfilling when you think about the broader crypto ecosystem, everything from metaverse to nfts to web 3.0, and the more money that goes in it, the more institutional players looking at the broader ecosystem, whether we're talking venture capital or the actual currencies, the more it's likely to become something that's entrenched. we have a lot of evolution look the way, and i think what's happening in ukraine today is

going to speed up a few things regulations, absolutely. we're seeing anecdotes from policymakers both in europe and in the united states saying we need to make sure there's no loophole here so the sanctions can be as effective as possible. so that regulatory ecosystem looks more likely to develop quickly than if this war hadn't started. i think the other big question that a lot of people are asking is, what does this mean about central bank reserves? if i thought those reserves were always going to be available to me, always liquid, and now that's a question mark, what do you want to hold instead do you want to hold treasuries, do you want to hold dollar assets or hold maybe more gold perhaps more crypto? so i think that's another question that might take longer to play out, but it's definitely one that this conflict has highlighted and perhaps accelerated. >> yeah, certainly a lot of rethinking along those lines is going on and will continue rebecca, thanks very much. >> thank you >> rebecca patterson

>> still ahead, mcdonald's just one company among many pausing operations in russia we'll dig in to the significance of it all ahead.

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get the new samsung galaxy s22 series on comcast business mobile and for a limited time save up to $750 on a new samsung device with eligible trade-in. in just the last few hours a number of big-named companies have paused operations in russia, including starbucks, aws, coca-cola, pepsi-c o and ge and mcgodonald's closing all 850

russian locations. steve, you of course were there in russia for the"wall street journal" in the '90s and mcdonald's was more than just a fast-food place. >> yeah when it opened in 1990 on pushkin square it was an international symbol integrating the soviet union, russia into the outside world which had been cut off most of 70 years before that for russia it was as much a curiosity a huge change from anything they had been useding before hand, part of introduction to consumer ip. they didn't have fast food certainly didn't have the same quality, same quality in the same time, same way, for mcdonald's it was an unbelievable under taking, trying to provide service in a country that didn't have customers service in a place

where things like that were scarce to non-existent >> so steve, what do you suppose it means to russians, didn't realize the history and significance ran that deep >> yeah, i mean, you see the pictures of the lines people lining up there, my guess is right now those who oppose this war will understand why it's happening and see it as just another roll back of this 30 years of progress being taken away every day in their lives. i don't suspect they'll miss it relative to other things taken away, and trouble is, people will view it as unjust action by the west for what they think is a modest military operation in ukraine that they've been convinced is totally justified hugely symbolic but different symbolism on the way out pepsi was the first one in there

1994 and that's gone too. >> they came in in the cold war to try to establish relation between russia and u.s.. >> since 84. >> steve thank you. i think the other question is how long what happens more don't miss the interview with ceo of adidas tomorrow on "closing bell. oil prices we caught up with u.s.ney erg secretary and got her take on the sanctions and what it means for the market straight ahead.

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i think there's a sense of urgency about this we are in active discussions with our allies, as you know, we just did a release of 60 million barrels collectively as a collective action with the international energy agency last week and we will be having further discussions both internally to the u.s. but also with our allies >> and of course, sarah, these reserve releases don't always have a huge market impact but there have been calls, ceos of energy companies saying it seems now with the crude oil price stretched the way it is --

>> -- certainly didn't work last week, if they go bigger, 500 million barrels in the strategic petroleum reserve -- >> and international partners. >> and oil keeps going up and market going down. >> that's going to do it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq marketsite in time square, i'm melissa lee, tonight's trader lineup guy adami, tim seymour, dan nathan and karen finerman will join us shortly apple's big reveals, tim cook taking the wrap off the new phone but an exclusive friday night baseball investors yawning, we'll tell you how apple and tech can get their mojo back. plus last night we told you mcy d's is keeping the door's open in russia, today decided to shut it down, the details on the symbolic message. su