amazon announcing a 20 for 1 stock split. we will talk about the prospects for a shake up in the dow industrials. it is thursday, march 10th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. welcome back. >> it hasn't been that long. a lot has happened >> check out the u.s. equity futures. the dow is indicated off by 283 points s&p futures down 35 and nasdaq off 60 it has been a wild week so far

it is only thursday. all of these lower numbers today are coming after a great performance yesterday for the markets. in fact, for the s&p, the best performance since june of 2020 it was up by 2.6% yesterday. the dow was up 2% yesterday. the nasdaq was up by 3.6%. that is the nasdaq's best p performance since november 2020. we are still looking at oil prices at $113 a share that is a gain of 4.2% yesterday, you saw oil off 12%. brent is trading at $116.78. natural gas at 459 encouraging more oil productions from sources the uae is trying to put pressure on opec to raise output we will see how it holds out

oil prices up $4.63 after the drop yesterday if you are watching the treasury market, the ten-year is yielding 1.49%. after getting below 1.7% this week, pushing up toward 2% again. bitcoin is giving back most of the gains from yesterday. big gains from yesterday cryptocurrency jumped after president biden announced an executive order to study digital currency the grou positive elements, but they would delay policy decisions until after the mid-term elections. pushing off regulation and after a guaranteed under certainty >> who said it would be certain before then? >> we talked about how they just acknowledged it is here to stay. that is one of the things seen.

>> that is a victory >> there was a view if it reached or got close, the fed would kill it. >> 3 trillion escaped velocity up from $14 billion? >> the point is if it is not going anywhere, what is the problem? is this just reality are people deciding okay it will be around? >> it was exactly what you thought yesterday. all of the comments and the way they phrase everything there are certain things they are looking for and it implies something about regulation >> it is volatile at a 6% move i don't need to ascribe a reason to it. bitcoin is all over the place. >> we will have more with s.e.c. chair jay clayton. i'm back thinking why didn't i

buy calls on activision. did you do work? >> it would be a good trade. >> i'm hearing weird things. i'm hearing some people out there may have known some things >> the thing i would say having heard from a few people is if you look at the situation, it probably is not a surprise to think something was going to happen >> loose lips sink ships i heard it was actually being b bandied about. possibly something afoot >> really? >> about this transaction? >> it would be crazy to act on it what if it was inn uendo? it did come from somebody who did know something. >> here is the conundrum if you thought there was a transaction in place that was three or five days away, you would not go through with it

>> because you would get caught. you would say there's no way i'm that stupid. >> and barry diller's life and why do it at all >> for $60 million divide it up >> it is more interesting to me and most people appreciate a lot of the guys are trading and investing in all sorts of stuff all the time. >> it is no different than you betting $5 on every game you watch. >> i know. >> it is interesting it just doesn't make sense it was out in the ether as the activision takeover. >> anybody looking at the stock would assumethat how it dropped and how many bad headlines were coming out about it and thinking change would happen >> this goes back to the warren

buffett berkshire issue. >> that was not a good trade they lost money. it did not start out as a good trade for them >> i don't know. >> i think if anybody is watching had an idea thought something was in play. it would be different if you heard that from somebody who knew something that would make a major change >> i don't know anything there is innuendo. >> always. >> leave it at that. people are on boards that know other people that are here and there and all over the place. >> just because barry and bobby worked with the board. >> and where is the son fit? >> barry's son >> right with the last name von -- >> barry is in business with david. they're partners

and alex, of course, is the son. >> right >> to me, i look at this situation and think if you actually knew this was going to happen -- you won't have done it >> berkshire was doing this, you would think otherwise. i'm not saying it is the timing is interesting. >> you will see something. if they see anything, they will do something about it. jpmorgan chase turned them in and said it looks like suspicious activity. >> it looks weird. >> jpmorgan chase is under a situation with three years where they got in trouble and they have to turn everything in it would not surprise me if there is nothing in it >> and there is smoke. whether there is a fire with that smoke >> that would be the one thing that you need to look out for. >> i hear amazon might split >> you're connected. you have your ear to the street. >> you goiogled that this

morning? >> in the journal. amazon shares higher after the company announced a 20 for 1 split and $10 billion share buyback. doesn't sound like much. much like alphabet in february on the split adjusted base, amazon closing price yesterday would be $139.28 putting it in the middle of the dow. comparing it to walmart. an update on the latest from ukraine. the meeting with the foreign ministers wrapping up a short time ago they are in turkey holding the first talks with the nation's top diplomats since putin launched the war foreign minister saying there was no progress on the cease-fire, but ready to continue talks to stop the war ahead of the sit down, ukraine's president accused moscow of carrying out genocide.

moscow officials bombed a children's hospital. that cease-fire deal for people to flee the city of mariupol with that bombing. the u.s. is warning that the russians could use chemical weapons or biological weapons. they are planning this to justify carrying out its own at attack a lot of misinformation or the idea that is part of the campaign vice president harris is in poland meeting with the vice president and president and disagreements over the war planes to help fight the invasion she is also meeting with justin trudeau later in the day we will have a live report at 7 7:00 eastern time. justin trudeau getting a hard time in canada for making the trip there we were talking before the show. the patriot missiles in poland

what i don't understand about this and i'm not a defense expert is they are still visible. you want them to be visible, but you know where they are. you are seeing images of them on television >> if you are looking for a way to pull it back, it is like paulsen saying you have a big bazooka in your pocket you are using this to try to deter. that would be my guess you know, this is the situation where you want more than innuendo out there we have the fire power we will back this up >> we're close. another push to settle the major league baseball lockout has failed talks between the players union and owners has been delayed. if the games are missed, rather than rescheduled, it would complicate the talks. players are likely fighting to be paid for a complete season. after the 1994 strike,

attendance did not return to previous levels until 2006 that is the risk they are running here with the continuing strike and the season shutting down or something else happening. fans look elsewhere. >> spring is baseball. sad. spring training. april. reds always start things off hope for the reds after that horrible ending to nfl i guess it was positive. coming up, stocks set to give back some of the gains. later fallout from the rapid rise of gas prices national average hitting $4.32 a gallon we will look at the stocks which will get hit the hardest you are watching "sqwkoxon bcua b" >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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mimi, i'll be with you in a second we have not seen sri in a while. get to all of your forecasts, sri. i guess start with the notion that the fed has had a chance. it never seems like a good time to do it once again, they have reasons to not do what they need to do. >> joe, good to be with you again. the fed had a chance it was a year ago or maybe 18 months where they should have started to increase interest rates. they should have started cutting back on the balance sheet. instead, continuing into today and the balance sheet keeps increasing we have near zero interest rates. the fed cannot have a perfect global situation to increase interest rates that is not the way the economy operates and jay powell and his colleagues just messed it up we are in for a much worse

situation. as long ago as last october, joe, i talked about the likelihood of stagflation in 2022 and 2023. it was not a popular topic last october, but now it is talked about. i think it's coming. >> mimi, how much of what sri do you agree with and is there a nuance to your view? >> i think there is some nuance. look, i really agree with the fed is late. they are still easing. they will start tight evening nt week chair powell said that last week the conflict overseas is not going to influence their movements. they need to get going i think we have six and a half hikes priced this year i think that is a good midpoint. we can go in either direction. as for the stagflation, i think we need to wait that one out as we are coming from a point where the economy is extremely strong

and earnings power and earnings results have been fine so, the labor market is tight. we really need to wait and see how this plays out as the fed lifts off and i do think they start letting the balance sheet run off this summer. >> sri, we've got -- we always have inflation numbers that we're looking forward to, but more so this time. if it is very hot, don't you think you will hear, of course it is hot with what's happened in the last two weeks. it will be discounted whether it is -- is it definitely not transitory or is it now transitory based on the conflict >> inflation, high inflation was never transitory, except in jay powell's mind. it was not based on economic theory or my economic forecast if you think about the ukraine crisis pushing up prices and

inflation, recall in january the inflation rate was 7.5%. there was no ukraine conflict at that time. even the number which we are going to get shortly, joe, is not going to incorporate the conflict because it was mostly calculated before the war two weeks ago began. so we are going to be close to 8% in today's number and in march, we are going to head toward 8.5%. where is the transitory portion in all this? it is transmitted to other areas besides energy and that is how the transitory nature becomes the permanent one which is why i've always taken the position the fed was wrong. it is going to be more wrong with the ukraine crisis. you cannot blame it on ukraine and russia in terms of why the prices are increasing at such a

rapid rate >> mimi, that is what we are hearing about gas prices now the reason they are high is because of the ukraine conflict. out of the $2.10 in the last 12 months, $1.15 was already up it is only 75 cents or 80 cents. it wasn't going up on the troop build up, but it was going up for another reason >> that's definitely our view that there are a lot of other factors involved in baseline inflation that have been pressuring prices higher both deglobalization and reduction in labor force and labor costs going up we think there are more sustainable forces at play when it comes to inflation aside from the recent russia and ukraine

conflict. >> how many this year, mimi? >> how many hikes? i have to go with seven. i have to go every single one. >> sri, they will look for reasons not to, don't you think in. >> they will be looking for reasons not to, but that is going to make the situation worse.instance, what they should do, joe, is increase it by 50 basis points and start padding the balance sheet and say they are going to increase it by 50 basis points until they bring the inflation down what you see in terms of the bond market is the spread between the two-year and ten-year, which in my mind is a very accurate predictor of future recession i wrote in october of 2007when the s&p 500 hit the record high that we would diffivurge throug

rece recession. three months later, the great recession began. i think we are in a similar situation today. i don't think it is any escaping it >> and sri, we have to go. quickly, you expect 2% we get a recession and still have higher rates. that's what it sounds like stagflation. >> exactly that's why you have stagflation. you have recession combined with high inflation and high interest rates. >> sri, thank you. mimi duff, thank you any relation to the credit ag agency >> no. >> we used to have a guy on named phil dow he would talk about the stock market he has to know mimi duff. you would be a great credit a ana analyst. and coming up, the airlines looking to bring unvaccinated workers back f.

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welcome back to "squawk. united airlines is allowing workers unvaccinated to return at the end of the month.

staffers who were exempt will be allowed to return from unpaid leave or non customer facing roles. they were allowed to take as an alternative to other jobs. the 200 employees fired for are you frefusing vaccination will not be called back do you ever go fly talk or talk fly the message boards where the pilots talk to each other. lots of people unhappy >> happy they are letting them back. >> unhappy about the people fired. now will not be brought back the others who -- anyway that's where i go for all my -- i don't know if it is rumors or speculation -- but my airline news phil lebeau told me about it

>> message boards are worse than twitter. >> very specific to certain issues >> and message boards are top of that i don't know vodafone investigating a data breach made by hackers threatening to leak the source code on monday, they asked what data it should leak next. vodafone source code and data from portuguese media company or two argentinean ecommerce companies. vodafone had 56% of the vote hackers asking what you want next we are told they are ex investigating the claim. the hacking group claimed responsibility for samsung last week and nvidia last month you don't always hear about this

until after the fact. the wall street journal says anthem health is changing its name to elevance combining the word elevate and ada add advance. >> is that relevant? >> you know what that is that is stupid dumb and stupid. >> and it is like there are good ones what would you use if you didn't use motel? it motor hotel >> what do you think it costs? >> i don't know. if you come up with venader. why would you want to be called woolworth? >> you take a brand of what it is and trade up for one nobody

heard of and how long does it take to reeducate people this is one of the companies that nobody knows what they do i'll look it up every time. >> do we like coach? >> we are making lots of friends on madison avenue. >> i forget. >> coach's new >> i don't know. >> that's sad. elevance is the owner of blue cross blue shield or holder appl for the change andrew, do you remember my nefarity discussion? 2020, washington post. the article uses nefarity three times. >> you don't have the patent >> apparently not. i think that the other one where you increase in incremental amounts, i might be able to do that. >> what is your word >> increasements >> increasements

>> someone else came up with that i can't take credit for that >> i like carbage. car garbage. >> every car has carbage >> cars should come with vacuum cleaners. >> there is one that does. >> a minivan has it. trust me i looked into it >> you did not buy it. >> i did not >> it's not an ev. >> that's not why. >> okay. when we come back, we'll talk about the stocks that could suffer the most from rapidly rising fuel costs. later, former s.e.c. chair jay clayton ways in on the big crypto announcement from the biden administration as we head to break, look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers a lot of winners yesterday match group up 12.8% tapestry is that the name that's it. i see it >> that's an album >> up 10.6%. formally known as coach.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we have red arrows across the board. dow off 282 points nasdaq down 157 points s&p off 35 points. we'll talk a bit of bitcoin. $39,000 again. prices at the pump are reaching record levels national average has increased to $4.32 some of the areas of the country are seeing prices over $5 a gallon i have seen pictures over $6 in california per gallon. the managing partner at dcla is with us. serat, the higher prices, how quickly will that reflect the shift of stock prices and

consumer spending habits >> we have seen the stock prices reflecting this quickly, becky if you look across the retailers like starbucks and other stable companies. they all reflected it. their multiples have come down the question is when does this affect the consumer? in our view, right now, the opportunity is that we have pent-up demand we are getting into the quote what we thought was the reopening play which is in the face of higher input costs the question is and this is a question for months now, how transitory are these costs especially the oil and gas inflation expectations are there for the consumer if you understand and people know everything is more expensive. our view is let's see how long this lasts if the oil prices come down, you will see demand not compared. >> when you see this is an

opportunity, you think stock prices in some arenas drop rapidly and multiple compressions come in and businesses may not feel it or they will get by fine because consumers are so strong right now? >> i do. the difference in coming out of the pandemic to the endemic stage, consumers are looking to get out of the home instead of buying goods at home they want to be out there. di disney has the opportunity of the park and the flywheel of streaming and companies can pass on prices. look at amex or visa/mastercard. if you don't see a huge pull back, they will have huge operating leverage where we have issues are companies without pricing power. companies without good brands are on grocery stores that consumers will move to private

label. you have to be careful do you have that operating leverage and brand i think parsinging out who grows the top line without affecting input costs is where the stock is really important. >> what do you do with something like a fedex or u.p.s. fuel prices are pretty important. airlines where fuel prices are important. the airlines ticket prices from everybody i talked to shot up rapidly. especially if you want to go to florida where everybody is trying to get away for spring break. what would you do with those >> so, i would take this separately stay away from fedex and u.p.s that is a lag effect they cannot raise as much as they can airlines like delta which is down to $33 from $50 has reflected that the offset on delta is they don't have enough supply of planes they don't have enough people coming on to fly they can raise prices for probably one of the first times

in years is that sustainable? i think it is. they will raise their supply just as much demand is coming on it is that we're getting out of the home and reopening play. they can pass it on. it is a question of how long and sustainable it is. that is where we have to be careful. if people stop flying, then they start staying home again i do think we will have the effect of the rubber band where people have revenge economy and ready to go out. for the spring and summer, we will see the spending. >> i like your thesis. it works on a lot of sectors and lots of stocks within the sectors. what have you been doing yourself what areas have you been nibbling on or putting a lot of money into because you think they are the best areas and best companies and sectors out of this >> good question actually some of the stocks i talked about

amex and visa/mastercard and disney i added to delta companies like uber also that as people come out, they will order more food or just taking more cars i would also look at other areas like the diagio and constellation brands people will spend more money dining out the experience will be part of that those are areas you get good opportunity and also operating leverage on technology companies. don't forget some of those have come back. qualcomm increased dividend 10% just a couple days ago i think those are good places to start. >> let me ask quickly about uber i was thinking about that, too you imagine more people out there and then you hear the complaints from the drivers saying it is not worth it to drive because gas prices are so high i'm not bringing in as much money. is uber stuck in a position where they have a harder time

finding drivers again? >> we have the situation where demand will out stretch supply and uber will be in the ability to raise prices. consumers will understand that the other part is a misunderstood story. as people start going back to work, they will start using less mass transit they will use yuber where they travel is where they leverage operating at airports and then go to the central office that might be in chicago and i live in boise. they have the operating leverage with technology. this is where we're looking. they have to pass the price increase on. it is not just uber, by the drivers that make money. in that sense, that stock again is down to $30 from $50. a lot of the companies reflected multiple contraction does that say what is happening

or discounted? we will see the stocks reflect that >> sarat, thank you. great to see you. >> thank you coming up, backlash over russia sanctions china threatening to retaliate if the u.s. punishes chinese companies for doing business with russia. we will take you live to be beijing. and later, former fed president richard fisher will talk about the fed and inflation and so much more we'll be right back. >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the professionals gateway to the world's markets.

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as the war in ukraine enters its third week, china is threatening to retaliate if the u.s. punishes chinese firms for doing business with russia we have eunice yoon with more. >> reporter: good morning, joe the chinese foreign ministry said if the u.s. sanctions chinese companies, that china would respond firmly and forcefully this stern warning is part of what is becoming a play tent anti anti-west view china is echoing the pr blitz over ukraine accusing the u.s. military

operating a dangerous bio-labs in ukraine the theory the u.s. warned could be president putin's way of justifying further attacks in ukraine. state media today also called the u.s. the quote empire of lies this is a phrase that putin used right after the west started sanctioning russia official news outlets are doubling down on the criticism of u.s. policy the agency slammed washington for suggests chunina had prior news of the ienvinvainvasion and warned europe of the lies and what is painted as u.s. led sanctions. despite the more openly pro russia stance that we are seeing, a lot of chinese companies are already reportedly scaling back their businesses there. the sources saying smart phone

makers huawei and xiaomi cut shipments in half. russian distributors have stopped orders to chinese facf factories and one carmaker paused deliveries to russian dealers. the problem is not secondary sanctions, but the plummeting ruble. the ruble has dropped 45% against the u.s. dollar. 40% against the rem in the past two weeks. the chinese announced they will widen the trading ban for the yuan/ruble from 5% to 10% to account for the volatility joe. >> all right eunice, china is walking a fine line we have to walk a fine line. the mig situation -- did you see the editorial? what should we have done there

i don't know everybody on hair trigger. i read, eunice, a maternity hospital oh, no what an unfortunate accident i don't think it is an accident. >> the talk of the potential false flag as pre-text to use chemical weapons >> a lot of misinformation across the board bhe board >> it is right after the pandemic one thing. don't you think you are in a simulation and being tested? is that possible >> did i read that somewhere who said that? >> i said that i'm starting to wonder i'm starting to wonder this is -- >> elon musk was right from the beginning. >> he is right about a lot of things i have been reading the latest stuff from his coming up, when we return,

bitcoin jumping after the white house announcement giving back this morning we will talk about all of it former s.e.c. chair jay clayton will bring us his reaction in just a moment. could be danny. guess it's on maggie. should we have another one? talk to us about retirement today. feel comfortable about tomorrow. massmutual.

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welcome back back to "squawk box. president biden signing an executive order yesterday sent most cryptos higher on that day. if you look right now bitcoin and giving up all the gains. jay, you've been talking about this for quite some time, the need for regulation and the

like you wrote about stable coins, but i'm curious what your immediate reaction was when you heard the white house was doing this >> andrew, good morning. and my immediate reaction is this is necessary, it's important and it's good that they did this even if it's limited. and it's because it signals a couple of things and if you don't mind i'll jump right into those one is digital assets whether new assets or old assets or familiar assets being digitized are here to stay and it also signals they're going to be regulated to the extent they're financial products, investments and the like with the same principles, time-tested principles that we've had for a long time. consumer protection, investor protection, stability, anti-money laundering, those types of things. and there's one very important thing that is in this order, and that is a recognition that technological advancement is

important for the continued prominence of the u.s. pdollar >> jay, in terms of understanding we were talking earlier does this effectively say okay this is here to stay, there's no putting the toothpaste back in the tube? >> i think it depends on what you're talking about in terms of the technology and you want to call it block chain technology or some other term, the technology coming to the financial system is absolutely here to stay including some form of stable coin i think we've all seen that stable coin as a bridge from what i'll say the crypto new asset world to ourfish system has demonstrated incredible power and scale. that type of asset, that type of functionality i believe is definitely here to stay.

whether a particular new crypto asset is here to stay or what value -- >> does this say anything about whether bitcoin stays or goes? >> i think what it says about particular assets is if they can demonstrate that they're functioning as people expect they will whether an inflation hedge, a transfer in a very efficient way -- >> do they function as they're expected to? that's a fascinating way to think about it because i don't know what yooung bitcoin is supposed to function as, right some people say it's supposed to function as an inflation hedge in which case you'd say maybe not so much. you could look at it on the screen, that's where you land. that's the hard part function expected to is a complicated way to think, no >> it's how we think about

markets generally. we think about today's price as a reflection of future value and whether it becomes established -- whether bitcoin becomes established or something else time will tell. but people investing in it today for a view of that for the future, that's for sure. >> jay, if you're right, though, about the stable continue piece of this doesn't that mean terrible, terrible things for the master cards, visas, paypals. everybody loves stripe which is a private company at this point, but all these essentially financial payment systems? >> i don't look at it that way, andrew i think that any kind of new technology coming to a large

incumbent market there are going to be people who adapt well, people who don't adapt so well i expect some of the names you mentioned to be winners in this and people you might not even heard of >> how long does it take >> i think that we have a large -- we have a large multifaceted regulatory framework that is in place, and i believe it covers much of the digital asset activity i've long said that the icos, i think time has proven that's correct. in terms of new areas and in particular a spot market for digital assets that are commodities we're seeing whether that needs additional regulation

or not squf the use of trading platforms that are not security trading platforms is part of that >> where do you think things like nfts live in this and the reason i ask is because now you have some people -- people are making contracts themselves nfts as a sort of almost like back doorway to create a token of some sort. >> again, you're raising a really good point. just because we call it an nft or we call it a coin doesn't mean it's performing a utility function it may be performing an investment function. to the extent an nft is a picture, we can all be relatively confident that in and of itself is not a security. to the extent it establishes some kind of return then we start to get into the securities area and people will say, well, isn't

that a little bit murky? well, you know, it really depends on what function is performing not the label you put on it. >> is there like an internal behind the scenes food fight going on between different aelkss on who will ultimately regulate allthis stuff because that's the other component of it. none of these things fit neatly with certain agencies in many ways >> that's why i was happy to see this executive order i think there are times when coordination across the agencies is required. the white house, the national economic council and treasury are the important parties to try and coordinate across the fed, the cftc, the fcc. and jurisdiction is largely overlapping. it's almost always overlapping not having gaps, figuring out who's going to take the lead in areas.

>> jay, final question and i know you're not an investor but we're looking at red across the screen after it popped yesterday. does that make sense to you? >> look we've had a few of these in our careers this is clearly a volatile time where we're reacting to daily information when overall there's so much uncertainty. so any day up or down in the current environment is not going to surprise me and i think that fsoc is looking at this in many ways >> good to see you it is just after 7:00 on the east coast and you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we do have a big line-up still to come in the next two hours.

starting with georgette. right now you see the dow futures indicated off by 309 points of course this comes after a big day of gains yesterday when the s&p saw its biggest gains all the way back to june of 2020 if you've been watching crude prices yesterday a huge decline, off by about 12% this morning gaining back. >> let's get to dom chu who's looking at this morning's premarket movers >> a big one here of course what's happening with amazon.com going to drive a lot of the conversation so far today. one of the most valuable companies in america, part of that $1 trillion club. getting a big boost today,

roughly 45 to 50,000 shares of premarket volume this is driven in large part by the announcement erredyard by the biggest online retailer in america that it is going to split its stock on a 20 for 1 baize and replace an existing buy back program it had. i mentioned that trading volume number and you can see that pick up on a split adjusted basis theoretically you're talking roughly call it 145, $146 per share right now. as the price comes down theoretically it could drive more trading volumes also watching what's happening with caterpillar shares. not a lot going on yet, but we're just down a hair caterpillar the latest company to announce it's cutting ties with russia. it's going to suspend

manufacturing operations in russia due in large part to the supply chain issues on going and the financial sanctions being put in place by not just other companies but governments around the world. and then jd.com is another one we'll watch here lower in the premarket trade right here for its u.s. listed shares down by about 6% it's one of the e-commerce giants out in china. it comes out with better than expected profits and also better than expected revenues however, that is probably one of the slowest growth rates it's seen in the subsequent rates it's had by the way, chinese internet you can see there continues to be a lag rt about 20% in the last year just for jd shares. >> at the domino, thank you, sir. >> cal pillar, mcdonald's. is it a switch

how long does this last? you turn it off, turn it off, coca-cola, turn off. what about cal pillar? >> if you listen closely to what dom said he said in large part they're shutting this down because of sourcing problems caterpillar was able to do so much because they'd do local sourcing and in some cases local building if you can't do that, yeah, we're going to say we're stopping business there because effectively we can't do it anyway it doesn't mean they're shutting down and closing and will never go back. >> in total all the companies now not doing business in russia, it seems it's going to be multi-month or even years >> yes but a lot of it has come from the problems

>> all these companies out morally they're going to have to stay out for -- when do you say when -- it's going to be years i think it's not a light switch and i think it's going to affect a lot of months to come and years. >> it also depends on how the russian people feel about this obviously they're being dealt a huge amount of misinformation. >> was it matter how the russian people feel? >> to some extent. if they're angry at you because they think this is a u.s. issue. that's the situation we always look at in china will apple and nike be able to sell there if china and u.s. go to a trade war to that point the companies have done a very good job maneuvering

that >> i'm thinking long-term how long was the cold war because it was a long -- decades. busy morning busy morning ahead on the economic front including the latest ecb decision, u.s. jobless claims and -- and really, steve, the latest inflation data, the cpi. steve liesman joins us now hey, steve >> morning, joe. yeah, we're going to learn today where inflation was mostly before the war and know it was already uncomfortably high and know it's uncertain it's going higher still headline 0.7%, that's up a tick. year on year 7.8%. i'd say there could be up side risk in that number. core expected to tick down

better, food and energy year on year 6.4%. the surge in crude oil came almost entirely towards the end of the month it will now certainly head higher still the danger for the federal reserve isn't that it loses control if it hasn't already of the hearts and minds of average americans and business leaders because it can't any longer tell a credible story about how inflation is going to come down. that is a especially true because you have grains and other commodities that won't be coming from ukraine and russia driving up world food and other prices ian shepherdson from pantheon says march should be much worse. right now we think headline inflation in march will hit 8.2% i think personally that's kind there could be some

disinflation, could be, that could come from negative impacts of the war they're going to come up in the u.s. the opposite force of the reopening of the economy after covid, and i see some of that in the strong jobless claims we're going to get whatever issue the fed faces, they're much worse for the ecb, going to face a more severe hit from russia's invasion depending how long this lasts. initially this could be a faster withdrawal of qe and we'll see because the euro has depreciated against the dollar, and i think that exchange rate is going to be very sensitive >> talk it all over with richard fisher who's going to be on later today. coming up former ukrainian and foreign minister speaking earlier this morning the former ambassador to poland georgette mosbacher is going to

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ukraine's foreign minister meeting with russian counterpart

in turkey but no progress has been made. nbc's molly hunter joins us now with more. hi, molly. >> reporter: joe, good morning that's right you've got a split screen going on this morning. you've got turkey, russian foreign min sfr lavrov meeting his ukrainian counterpart and then you've got inside ukraine we're looking at mariupol where humanitarian aid is still being blocked this morning i'll start with top lines in turkey russia signaled it's not ready to implement a cease-fire. it wants ukraine to surrender, he says in english and he was speaking in english and said that is not going to happen russia's narrative is that they will continue aggression until russia gives up and surrenders there are associated press photographers on the ground. we have seen the pictures, seen

the video, talked to the local city councilman who says three people have died and more than a dozen people wounded there was hope this morning in mariupol and we've spoken every single day this week families are hoping they might be able to get out on a humanitarian corridor there was an convoy going into mariupol carrying essential food supplies, water, survival goods. we learned half an hour ago that convoy was turned around it was blocked now, our understanding is there are seven routes today out of various besieged cities in the southeast and northeast. we also learned 60,000 people got out yesterday. that is not even close to the number, though, the ukrainians are hoping to get out of some of these besieged cities. >> i can't imagine trying to negotiate with parties that are able to say things like -- it

harkens back to baghdad bob. how do you negotiate how do you take anything they say? i'm certainly not going to call it disinformation because that's way too kind a word for it molly, thank you joining us now for more on this georgette mosbacher, a former ambassador to poland you know president zelenskyy, a personal relationship with him when we do hear there might be a cease-fire we hear it would have to do with ceding certain areas and not to nato. there can't be any real peace it doesn't seem like. >> i hope it's not a dead end

because this death and destruction is heart wrenching and i think we're at a point where putin can and will take kyiv and the question is what we have to do to stop that but the bigger question, joe, is the failure of the great western democracy, united states, u.k., germany and france were unable to stop. we're going to have to at some point ask ourselves what's the implication of that? but we also are very limited in our options because the eu when it comes to energy policy.

how did the nord stream 2 get started let alone finish all of a sudden the eu realizes that energy security is national security i can tell you that poland understood that. we were able to do a great deal of lng deals because they built a terminal on the baltic sea they aren't going to renew their gas pump contract. they understood that energy security is national security. so here we are, we're paralyzed basically because we have very few options. eu gets 40% of their energy from russia so consequently we need to take a hard look at what got us here. sure >> i'm sorry

i hate to drop parallels to the second world war obviously, but we probably wish we would have engaged earlier because appeasement doesn't work we now know that, but appeasement in a nuclear age, it just seems different and if you stand up to a bully that's nuclear armed, do you think that option is actually something that putin would consider because we're not only as you're seeing europe's hands are tied because of energy policy, but it seems like the world's hands, nato's hands, the united states hands are tied by what's been hanging over our heads since 1945, nuclear armed super powers >> clearly because as we watch putin put 200,000 troops on the border of ukraine, what did we do?

nothing because we couldn't do anything i do believe appeasement is one of those words everyone is terrified of however, there is such a thing as compromise. and the truth is ukraine was never getting into nato. i would like to see zelenskyy sit down and say, look, if we have to go neutral for this period of time to stop this madness, really is that appeasement? i don't know but i do know that we're going to have to take putin at his word and sit down and figure out what it is he wants without compromising our values.

but really would it be so terrible he aural has the donbas region so i will be criticized for this, i know that. but i do think at some point we have to have the courage to sit down and say what will it take and it will take listening to putin and understanding that we do have limited options and doing something that we can stop this and then figure out how the hell we never get into this again. >> ambassador, i hear what you're saying from the perspective of maybe saying neutrality and that ukraine will not be in nato for some period of time. i can understand that being compromise, but it sounds at least from everything we've heard to this point that putin wants to at least take those separatists, those two areas, the two regions, and i think that's where there's a bigger problem with the ukrainian

people go along with something like that. i think that's where it gets into a much more complicated problem, and you're right we can try and be the peace makers at the table, but with what we've already seen from the ukrainians and what they have done and the incredible bravery that we've watched them over the last few weeks that gets more and more complicated because if the in the matter of two weeks putin gets these two regions and make sure ukraine was not allowed into nato that almost rewards this horrific awful behavior and allows him to think and anybody else who's watching if you behave terribly, you do awful things you'll get what you wanted anyway and it can happen in a matter of weeks >> well, look, there's no question about the bravery of the ukrainian people but also there's no question about the overwhelming force that russia has. and russia can take ukraine.

holding ukraine, i agree is another story. but already they occupy the donbas region. and we don't nets saerl have to give that over to russia we could compromise to the effect that we have independent elections there, something -- something other than actually speeding the borders at what point, where does this go from here we failed in stopping it, so now what are our options and no, you never want to reward bad behavior, but at the same time we have 2 million refugees who's come over the border already in poland. we expect another 7 million.

we've got to come up with something. we've got to come up with something that makes some sense on both sides. >> ambassador mosbacher, would ask you more but we're out of time would have you on again wondering if we're on the cusp of cold war 2, cold war reboot or something and i wonder, you know, having been ambassador of poland i would be nervous i would be nervous if i were the other countries in -- you know, l l latvia, lithuania. >> of course they're terrified they're the eastern flank of nato >> and that's nato then we've said we'll defend every square inch of nato land so i don't know where we are wave got to run.

appreciate having you on this morning. >> let's get a quick look at the markets. the futures under pressure the nazdic off by 192. of course this comes after big gains yesterday. the ten year note is inching back towards 2% on the yield 1.950% right now and check out some of the precious metals which have been skyrocketing wti up by 450 today but still well below the 130 and change we saw on an intraday high earlier this week. and then at the metals palladium still coming down so slightly. aluminum up by another 6.2%. the metals havbee en skyrocketing this week "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back disney now publicly opposing florida's controversial don't say gay bill the ceo saying in a shareholder meeting they were opposed from the outset but thought they could be more effective working behind the scenes. says disney will be donating $5 million to lgbtq related organizations. and amazon shares are higher after the company announced a

20-1 stock split and a $10 million buy back this is what we saw in alphabet and its split back in february and this could make amazon shares more attractive on a split adjusted basis amazon's closing price yesterday would be $139.28 instead of the $$2,925. this is incredibly interesting, guys we were talking about this off camera before. >> the question is would you want it in the dow would you want google in the dow? if you already have wal-mart in the dow which is the better version of this? >> it's a better indicator of everything happening >> you have advertising, shipping >> you have a retailer, cloud computing so it's kind of all those different things >> from my perspective it would

be better just because i think it's a better reflection of the economy. yen about the people tawho make up the index >> where do crow put wal-mart then in. >> i don't know if you knock any of those out wal-mart is incredible because it's the largest employer of the united states short of the federal government they have 10% of all retail sales in the united states it's kind of hard to look at any of these >> we don't want the dow acting like a faang index it's going to be move likes the index. >> that's why you can get it all with amazon. >> doesn't look like cal pillar anymore, does it >> again, you need some of all the different areas, and then it moves. we should try to get them on at some point i don't know what they're thinking would be, but if it were me i'd look at all the different aspects. >> it'd be 30 cloud companies but that's just me

30 really good cloud companies we'll talk about the disney story at some point, too, as well squawk returning back after this time now for today's aflac trivia question. since the grukz of the consumer price index, what year was the highest inflation rate observed? the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues l help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac? [whimpers] i don't think he has any candy in there. am i at least going to get hit hard enough to forget this? nobody is going to forget this, ever. [bat hitting] ohhhh! i'mma call his momma. aflac! ♪ aflac! official partner of march madness.

now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. since the introduction of the consumer price index what year was the highest inflation rate observed the answer, 1917 the year over year rate was 19.77% cpi was created in 1921 and a time series back to 1913 was established. >> all right, that'll make you sit up and pay attention we think we've got it rough at 7% anyway, the markets continue to be volatile this week as the u.s. bans russian oil and energy prices spike, so does this crisis prove the west must be less dependent on fa fossil

fuels or is it the opposite? >> morning, becky, and i hate to say it but this really proves the u.s. and our allies can't eliminate fossil fuels anytime soon that's because we can't just flip a switch and get the u.s. and our allies operating on everything wind, hydro and solar. meanwhile vladimir putin is living in the present. he's using leverage to keep from putting up too much of a long-term fight. how much leverage does it give you and the global economy runs on it so much u.s. officials are getting cozy with venezuela this week and possibly iran here's the reality check the u.s. and allies need access to reliable oil and gas from countries whose leaders aren't

murderous autocrats. that'll be great if the west were less dependent on fossil fuels, but first we have to be less dependent on getting fossil fuels from countries that won't even return our calls, becky >> all right, i approve of that thesis i guess the question will be will there always be possibility of a crisis to drive us to drill more >> on the other hand, we have to be able to do more than one thing at a time, becky we need energy independence, but it's more important to invest in cleaner energy it's never going to be enough to supply fully our allies across the atlantic right now russia supplies europe with roughly a quarter of its oil, about 40% of its gas, and that's why the eu is outlining a

plan that would shutdown the need for fossil fuels by 2030. and invest heavily in solar roofs and wind projects. the lesson of this russian war in ukraine isn't that the west needs to outdrill russia the key will be to stay focused beyond the heat of the moment. this is also a good time to break this ridiculous energy impasse. there should be no republican versus democrat battle over fossil fuels whether you're intensely worried about global warming or less reliant on oil in the future better there u.s. interests. >> john, do you take requests? >> always. >> can you just bite it bullet and do me a nuclear? >> i thought about getting nuclear in this one, but it was

already -- >> we need it. i would love to see both sides of that because i don't know how you -- >> the answer is yes it's great, not in my backyard >> it's already done for you but that's taking the bull by the horns. and just let's talk. let's talk about it because it's limitless unless we do coal fusion anytime soon. >> you've been working on that right, joe >> coal fusion >> every time you feel good about it something happens like fukushima or what's happening right now in ukraine, what the russians are doing you saw the stuff from the iaea yesterday just talking about how the energy source has been cut off and hopefully it's good news there's enough coolant and the water can keep it cool but i mean every time you say we need this back there are things that pop up on this. so we're doing it ourselves, but, john, come back

>> next tuesday, my friend >> or boxes or briefs? i mean that's -- >> don't do that >> that's endless. and that really isn't on the other hand because it's just a matter of personal preference. still to come -- still to come much more on this market in what's going on wall street's big rally yesterday. take a look at the futures, dow off about 316 points right now nasdaq about 103 points off. plus we're going to talk to #'s senator for the latest out of washington on the russian invasion of ukraine. stay tuned you're watching squawk on cnbc new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. ♪ ♪

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welcome back, everybody. here's what we're facing right now. dow futures indicated off by about 290 points and of course it has been pretty rocky ride for the last several weeks. let's bring in jim paulson he's chief investment strategist, and jim, watching what wave seen i was really glad to hear you're coming up because

you're always soothing and make me feel better about things. the way you're looking at this is this is basically your average correction at this point. what happens next? >> that's kind of how i'm perceiving it, becky i think this correction has lasted about a year. i think much of the market peaked last march when bond yields peaked and have gone nowhere since that time, and its corrections have done what corrections should do. they took out the concentration of leadership and so the stock market is vulnerable and a small cadre of companies they stopped the bond route to pause that they revalued this thing i think the forward on the s&p was 24 about a year ago. it's now 19. much better situation. and then they gut check sentiment. and all the while i think fundamentals remain pretty good,

becky. the surprise index was minus 60 last september in the united states it's now plus 60 it's gone up from mid-february and gone from zero to plus 60. and i think that's omicron coming down and reopening coming back again i think underlining fundmental earnings remain really good, and you've got a lot of things to worry about. i think most of them are probably overblown, and this just feels a lot like past corrections where we're kind of bottoming out heading -- getting prepared after a year of liquidating, if you will, for another leg of this bowl >> so you would tell people invest right now -- invest where? >> yeah, i -- when i came into this year i said we were going to range from 4,000 to 5,000 this year on the s&p 500 if looks like the 4,000 already

has. from here i think we're going to see 5,000 and maybe go higher this year. so i would try at this point i would dump off if you had them some of those fear trades, if you will, which would be the goal and industrial commodities and energy stocks and defensive sectors. and i would look at small cap, which has really been outperforming this year so far underneath all this crisis i would look at cyclical sectors, some of it better than others and really my favorite is emerging markets and frontier markets right now. i think the dollar has been pushed up, becky, and some 06 this russian concern and oil concern dies down, i think the dollar is going to come down and boost international stocks better than the u.s. market. >> let me throw some of these words at you people running around with their hair on fire about inflation worried about the potential for a third world war coming out of

europe do you completely ignore that and look at the market technicals at this point >> i worry about those, tooch i get just as worried. but, you know, i just really feel like a lot of this is overdone at the moment i still think its going to moderate, becky. it's got several factors in it i think the biggest reason is still the pandemic i look at several areas going to improve. delivery times are still way elevated, backlog orders are still way elevated labor force is starting to come up but is still way down so i think as some of these supply things catch up and moving into an endemic now, we're going to see inflation moderate, and that means we're going to see optimism back i'd be invested.

even though it is hard at this point in time to do that, that's often the best time to up your risk taking. >> jim paulson >> thanks, becky >> feel better >> little bit. >> like what he had to say >> it's amazing to say, hey, world war 3 is just -- hopefully it doesn't come to that, but i don't know coming up the decision on interest rates and then at 8:30 the latest read on inflation cpi data will be released. busy morning aadhe "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. the european central bank out with its decision for the morning. it is calling russia's invasion of ukraine a watershed moment for europe expecting its full support for the people of ukraine and says it will provide smooth -- it will provide liquidity and what is needed for the european government response. it's also apparently changing its -- i've got to put my glasses on for this -- changing the purchase schedule. 40 billion in april, 30 billion in may, 20 in june and i was reading the final

headline here. it says ecb its net purchase will be data dependent, but if the incoming data doesn't support inflation is going to be higher and not weaken, then it will conclude net purchases in the third quarter. there's a bunch of other detail in here. before i toss it back i want to see what's happening to th you'ree. it had strengthened from the weakness it had before it's a little bit stronger the dollar still at 98 i want to check quickly we went into at 19 basis points and now the 10-year german is 26 it has strengthened and expecting a little bit more in the way of ecb tightening. >> steve, thank you. when we come back, consumers feeling the pain at the pump we're going to speak to operation ceo john hope ryan for inflation problems and what it means for americans. and later amazon shares are higher after the company announced a 20-1 stock split,

also a $10 billion stock buy back we'll speak to gene munster about that move. plus other tech names making headlines this morning "squawk box" will be right back. (vo) verizon unlimited is going ultra!!!! now our best plan ever, gives you more than ever! with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities.

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you guys been to -- >> yes >> i don't know if i got to 4. i think i got up to like 3 -- >> maybe $4.50 >> i apologize i actually have paid way over 4. >> your guide doesn't always tell you what he pays, does he >> does he come home and give you the receipt? >> thank you, sir. may i have another >> it's happening so fast every day we have to adjust it because it's several cents every day >> when you were here and talked about the super market have you bought aluminum foil >> yeah, i got it. >> it's $16. did you know that for aluminum how about a thing of meat? the bills seem much bigger, but i go to i mean why pay less, it's almost like a whole

paycheck >> let's talk to hope chairman ceo. you recently conducted a survey on minority of small businesses and how they're navigating inflation. what did you find? >> we found some very, very interesting data that you're dealing with people who understand that this is not stagflation, first of all, which is where you have, of course a decreasing economy, a contracting economy, high unemployment and inflation they understand, andrew, this is structured inflation created by covid and the supply chain issues so a very sophisticated understanding where this comes from the second thing you find is that people quit, get more resiliency they start businesses which they're in now and with inflation they're pivoting they'll get more contracts, which by the way is all about pay off of the social justice

movement by corporate america. they're fighting and getting different contracts, different revenues >> what do you mean by that? >> well, i mean corporations are hiring them when they didn't hire them before cities and corporations and people who have opportunities are giving them a shot they didn't have before so the reason they quit the jobs the data now shows is not because they were lazy but because they weren't being paid, taking too high a risk they're seeing now in business 38%, andrew, of new black businesses during the pandemic, it's the largest surge since 2004 in fact, all businesses surged the highest since 2004 before the pandemic yes, and the social justice piece actually helped what was going on right now and they're pivoting with resiliency >> john, how concerned, though, are you about, frankly, what's

happening in the economy for small businesses, therefore the value of small businesses. i mean we're seeing the valuations of big business and the public of course come down private sector or i should say private businesses, the valuations, we haven't seen them come down even though i'm sure some people are going to have to start valuing that way >> i think small businesses and particularly minority small businesses our data shows value -- provides a value on value differently. they value their freedom why do people do what they do? they want freedom of movement whereas a larger business might have to usetheir value -- migh have to value because they're trying to get a credit line or more stock investment. this freedom is driving not only the surge in black business and their resiliency in the midst of it -- >> what's your sense of access to capital in this environment

and frankly not just access to capital but cost of capital? >> again, very interesting cost of capital right now is still lower than pre-pandemic by far and opening up for people of color more than they ever have been able to and interest rates at the moment are still low, so you have higher inflation, but you have lower cost of funds and access to funds, which i think the feds are going to delay a little bit a rate hike increase to keep going this weird a landscaper and works with operation hope, he's impacted by fuel prices. he was not happy with the fuel increase

i don't like what i'm seeing on tv and this is what i can do right now. i'll pay more at the pump to see russia gone and ukrainians having freedom that's inspiring, and we're seeing that come out in the data as well. so freedom of self-determination not just freedom of -- >> you think people are willing to take this on themselves i don't know if you've been surprised the administration has not been more public and more public out and about saying the american public may have to actually effectively take on some of this if you believe in those freedom and those values >> yes and it happened before, andrew it happened in 1960s when the civil rights movement hit. by the way, blacks and whites took on more responsibility and pain, but a lot of folks decided not to buy certain things in the south, and that caused the whites only side and the private sector integrated the south. it wasn't the government here we have again opening up

the economy providing access to capital, providing contracts and opportunities. >> maybe a curve ball for you, but i want you to weigh in on what i think is a moral business issue, and since i think you think about this stuff all the time, we were talking earlier about a lot of the u.s. businesses at least shutting temporarily in russia. the question is going to be whether and when they could ever restart in russia. under what terms do you think they could or should >> regime change i think we've been kicking this can down the road as long as we can. i think that you've seen fire their leaders here that lie to them and misrepresented them you see people quit jobs from employers that didn't respect them you're seeing americans saying i'll pay higher at the pump and you're seeing basically murder in exchange for money halfway

around the world and saying i'm not going to participate in that i think people are wanting more and more to live our values, not unreasonably so. i think companies who do this are going to benefit people want to work for companies that have values, that have principles, that stand for something. >> what do you say to those who say this is virtue signaling when it's coming out of your pocket not saying in china here, not saying something in florida here, there's no consistency to it >> look, we're not perfect but is a saint is a sinner that got up you make the best decision you make in front of you at that moment and pivot as many small businesses have done when you can. there's some things people cannot change or feel they

cannot change. china is not invading another country. russia is, and russia kmskly is a spindle, it's nothing. and this is something we can do, something all of us can do to send a signal this cannot be tolerated. and sometimes virtue signaling is all you need to pivot societies in the right direction. we have a common enemy, and we have common aspiration, and we have a common cause. that may be enough, andrew >> john o'brien, thank you for your perspective this morning. just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast, and you're watching "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square take a look at the futures now we are in the red this morning let's show you where things stand right now. the dow off about 358 points, nasdaq looking to open down

about 214 points the ten. year note approaching now 2% bitcoin standing around 39,000 right about now. a couple headlines to bring you. another report on inflation just ahead with the february consumer price index out at the bottom of the hour, economists think headline inflation rose 0.7% last month with the energy inflation rate up, and we're going to get those numbers and speak to richard fisher. that inflation, the economy and what it could mean for the fedrophous rate policy meanwhile the faa has finalized boeing 777 jets after more than a year this after three incidents involving flight fan blades. and the house has now approved a bill that provides $13.6 billion in aid to ukraine along with money to fund the government

through september 30th that bill now goes to the senate which will try to act on the bill before the current government funding bill expires at midnight on friday. >> let's talk markets at this point. mike santoli has been following the premarket action ahead of that important cpi data. and we've got pretty used to some pretty strong numbers coming in on cpi feels like a gut kick every time you see it >> we absolutely have gotten used to expecting them, but of course given what's going on with commodity prices, that could have the potential to shock. the stock market in a highly stressed state yesterday a very strong rally, not the kind of really decisive breath and power and sort of thresholds crossed you would like to see to say aha, but this is part of the process the zone will be bottom let's say three or four times intraday

or overnight yesterday we spanned almost the entirety of that range at the open right here the way the futures are setup, s&p about to setup less than half of what was gained yesterday showed susceptibility after really depressed sentiment to some decent headlines on the potential for deescalation inflation expectations embedded in the market right now. take a look at the ten year treasury protected securities yield right now this basically tells you we're back down to almost 9%, inflation adjusted yield on treasuries the way that kputs is implicitly a 3% ten-year expectation on cpi. 3% is high, but low yields is something that was considered to be a support for equity valuations through last year this is something that had been a bullish factor we'll see if it continues to be

so at this point, and then of course amazon announcing that stock split yesterday following other big faang companies. apple, alphabet, amazon. so when did apple announce its stock split, right about here, july 2020. got a pop and then nothing you had february 1st for alphabet here. you had this pop, and then down. so in other words short-term potential for up side. people faget excited about it. there's no fundamental change. as a signaling matter it has implications in general down the road >> mike, we were talking a little earlier with jim paulson, about the idea this correction at this point fairly average correction if you were looking historically if you look at what's taking place with markets. i realize if you are in certain names in the nasdaq you're feeling a lot worse because it's

a drop of 45, 50% in some cases. but if you're looking at the s&p 500 and the dow you're talking down 10 to 12% from the all-time highs. that is not unusual unless you're somebody pretty new to the market and has been along for the ride the last few years. >> it's not unusual statistically. at the lows i was talking about for the s&p, you touched a down 15% number it's comparable to what was going on let's say early 2016. i don't think a lot of newer investors would really worry about something like this. the problem is 10 to 12% down side with this very wide range of potential outcomes is also the way the beginning of something worse looks, right so it's never just about, hey, if it stops you, we're fine, and i do believe that. and if it stops you we wouldn't call this a bear market. if it continues to roll and have financial stress build up, that's what people are concerned

about. >> we'll see it'll take some time to really figure out it out, but it is interesting with that historical perspective. thank you. we'll see you later. coming up, we're going to have the fishers on. it's going to be really nice although they're not related senator debra fisher, first talks us to talk about the latest out of the russia-ukraine conflict and why she says the u.s. needs to impose even more sanctions. and later richard fisher, drop the "c" and he'll be on. plus amazon announcing its first stock split in almost 23 years, and what it means for the stock with gene munster. nty.irst stock split this ceur >> stay tuned. time flames when you're having fun with "squawk box," which is what you're watching and this is cnbc including money added back to your social security check! with one toll-free call, you can find out how easy it is

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like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq the latest on russia's invasion of ukraine. the foreign ministers of both countries meeting today in turkey apparently, though, no progress on resolving this conflakt which is now entering its third week ukraine also accusing russia of genocide for bombing a maternity hospital in the south eastern port city there. ukraine's president says three people including one child were

killed our next guest has been pushing for months for more sanctions against russia's vladimir putin and has urged the biden administration to reevaluate its approach to how to deal with this country overall, how to deal with vladimir putin senator deb fischer is here. and senator, thank you as a member of the armed services committee you have access to a lot of information, a lot of things that have fed your view of putin at this point. i know you have been pushing for stronger sanctions, but now that we are, do you think we are moving the right way with our allies >> i think the president really moved too slowly the sanctions were tough enough at the beginning as you said we had information on this, public information and also in our classified briefings on the tremendous bill we saw from russia this was not a surprise in any way that russia was going to move into ukraine.

in fact, there was information out there that was very, very detailed about it. so those sanctions should have been ready to go, and they should have happened before the invasion started if you're going to deter somebody you need to show that you mean business on it. and you wait until after the tanks started rolling in was too late >> what i will say is what we're doing right now obviously we can't change what happened to this point what do you think how we are working with our allies in europe at this point, what do you think of the sanctions and what are your expected next steps? >> yeah some -- some of it's been good in working with allies, and i give the administration credit for that but i think there's a lot of uncertainty out there. but we see that in the administration's response to the polls when they offered their fighter jets president zelenskyy in talking to members of congress this last

weekend in a phone conversation, he stressed that he needed -- he needed fighter jets, he needed more javelins, stingers, things like that. then we heard the secretary of state basically saying if the poles want to do it, and we have a mixed signal from the administration and i think it's extremely important that we have a clear direction to our allies in order to work with them we've seen the administration previously in afghanistan and the blunders there in trying to catch up our allies to what was going on, and it really showed i personally think incompetence. so i don't want that uncertainty to continue here with ukraine. >> i'd like to see areas where we are moving united forward to deal with the threat that comes from outside this country, and i

don't mean to explain to you in your backyard how concerning the prospect of a war with another country that has nuclear weapons might be particularly if we're not sure putin is a rational character at this point. what do we do to make sure we are as strong as possible dealing with him trying to make sure he has nowhere to go but also trying totread lightly enough that we don't inadvertently kick off a third world war? >> you know, i think you put that very well it's a fine line here, and we have to balance it we had a briefing, a posture briefing from admiral richard whose compatent commander of strat com. we had that earlier this week in the services committee and a classified briefing. and i believe he was very, very up front in the open hearing as well on the importance of deterrent. so i think when we can show that we are firmly supportive of our

nuclear triad, the deterrent system that we had and we're going to continue with modernization of that, that sends a clear message. deterrence is prnt across the board. it underpins every strategic importance the department of defense makes. i think the clarity admiral richard offered, the clarity i continue to express on that and my colleagues across the board, chairman jack reid, democrat who chairs the armed services committee, is very, very strong when it comes to our triad and the deterrence necessary to keep peace in this world. so i think that is obviously somewhere we need to continue to be strong on, stand firm and make it very, very clear to putin and any other adversary that we recognize the importance of deterrence and protecting our homeland but also for our allies who are under that nuclear umbrella that we have. >> the former ambassador to

poland was with us earlier this morning, and she suggested that you would never want to use the word appeasement, but her idea of compromise here would be something like agreeing that ukraine would not be admitted to nato anytime soon, even giving up the territories in the eastern part of ukraine where the separatists had kind of engaged those two areas. is that something you think is a good idea, or would that encourage putin too much, reward him for the incredibly awful, awful human behavior he's exhibited to this point? >> i think it would reward a war criminal ukraine is a sovereign nation. they are showing courage we are all inspired by the courage they have. and if we can continue and step up the reinforcement of those defensive materials that they need and that tay requested,

they will be able to -- to have defense of their nation. they've shown that they are very, very kipable they have shown that they have the will to fight, and they have shown really what a war criminal looks like in this day and age when you haveputep bombing a maternity hospital killing children, indiscriminately bombing civilian areas, he'll be made to the answer for that. >> i hope so consumer index will come out in a few minutes. i know the midwest has seen some of the highest numbers in the country. what are you feeling from your constituents what can we do to help >> you know, my constituents are really frustrated. inflation is the number one issue i hear about, whether it's from farmers who have looked at

200% increases in fertilizer costs as they're trying to make plans for spring whether it's people on a fixed income, seniors seeing their energy prices go up, families trying to buy groceries. i was visiting a small town coffee shop just this last week and the heating bill for that, the electric bill for that small town coffee shop, it was 40 some dollars last month and over $300 this month it hits small businesses and hits every segment of our economy. some businesses feel we're above that 7.9%, and as you said that's higher in the midwest, and it's closer to 11% so i'm -- i'm anxious to see what the -- what the percentage is going to be here later today. >> senator, you mentioned the mixed signals about the migs from poland going through germany and maybe to ukraine did you say whether you thought that should have been okay by

the administration or not? every new detail we hear about some of the war crimes there are people that say when is enough enough to where we could have done something with that stalled convoy there's a lot of things we could do, but anything we decide to do you risk escalating this to a place where we don't want to go. so were you saying we should allow the migs, we should arm the ukrainians with fighter jets right now? we should allow that >> the administration first signal came out that they would allow it and i think there's logistics there. i think they should be allowed to go in while they still can be delivered to the ukrainians. these avenues of transporting

defensive weapons, fighters, possibly, you know, those areas are going to close it's just a question of time if the ukrainians do not receive the defensive equipment that they need. sure there's logistics involved, and i would imagine that the administration had thought through that i would hope they thought through that on what would be involved if we're going to back fill, for example, the poles i think it was 29 jets they offered to send into ukraine i think it would be helpful not just for congress and classified briefings but for the people to understand what's happening. first of all, i am a strong supporter of when possible to be able to declassify some material so that we -- we can explain to the citizens of this country the threats that we face, the threats we're looking at in

europe right now and what -- what the options are and how some decisions are made. some of that -- some of it can be declassified. and i think we would have more support for -- for the actions taken by the administration if that information would be available not just to congress, hopefully to congress but especially the people of this country. they have a right to know when we were involved possibly with article 5 and future actions people in this country have a right to know where we're going to head. >> senator, want to thank you for your time today. >> you bet thank you. coming up, we've got breaking inflation data coming up in just a moment. we're going to get that news and then talk about what it means for the fed interest rate decision that's coming up next week richard fisher is going to join

us here's a market staff that may help summarize the year so far on wall street yesterday the nasdaq was up about 3.6% it was the index's seventh move of 3% or more in 2022. there were only five such moves in all of last year. stay tuned you're watching ua rhtsqwkig here live from the nad dack market site in times square.

welcome back to "squawk box. the futures down right now 367 points on the dow. nasdaq indicated down just under 200. the ten-year, by the way, is at the highs of the morning same with the two-year as you can see. and a lot of people watching the flattening of the curve. major banks at this point taking a look, they don't do quite as well when that happens, obviously. but not huge moves, about market moves from where we see the dow this morning, and then big tech. we're going to turn the dow into

big tech eventually when every single component -- >> meantime disney now publicly opposing florida's controversial don't say gay bill telling a shareholder meeting he and other disney leaders were opposed to the bill from the out set but thought they could be more effective working behind the scenes and says disney will be donating $5 billion to lgbtq related organizations. complicated in issue in terms of how you approach this publicly, and this is something disney had same issue -- i'm sorry, delta had in georgia, which is to say when you want to effectuate change, it's very hard to come out geps someone publicly and bring them to your side so

quickly. >> it's the age we're living in. >> it's very hard to sort of not to capture nuance but to do it in private because nobody wants to do anything in private. we've got some numbers coming up. when we dm rhtig back it's the february cpi inflation don't go anywhere. numbers right after this break indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire every big idea every game changer every "how'd they do that?" starts here, the blank page. artists and writers know the tyranny of it well but so do developers, data scientists, ctos. the new creators to them, we say let's create something that changes everything. ♪♪ ibm.

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welcome back to "squawk box"

on cnbc. we're just seconds away from new cpi inflation data and initial jobless claims futures about 350 points on the dow, just under 200 on the nasdaq and two year we looked at that a couple minutes ago. so hope fall you were watching rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago the numbers, please. >> the february release is going to be huge the month over month number as expected up 0.8. so we have a bit of reprieve there. if you strip out the all important food and energy, exactly as expected up 0.5 now we get to the money numbers. year over year as expected it's 7.9% for year over year inflation. following 7.5 that could get

revised 7.9 to find a higher level of inflation you're looking at 8.4% in june of '82 is your comp and on the year over year ex-food and energy known as core exactly as expected up 6.4%. of course 6% is in the rearview mirror and may still get revised. that comps to the same as the 6% 1982, august of '82 when i was 7.1% on initial jobless claims expecting an number right around 217,000. so it's up 11,000. remember the post-covid low going back into the wild '60s. i believe ffs the first week in december and finally continuing claims this is february 26 --

1,494,000. and that follows a slightly revised 1,069,000. so these are good numbers. they're still very good flbs the big news obviously continues to be the push and pull of geopolitics into a treasury market much more at least price wise and statistically concerned with what's going to happen on march 16th, the upcoming beginning of a tightening cycle already telegraphed to be one quarter of a point and this inflation news is going to be tough for the administration nothing has been more politicized than inflation let's harken back to all the

things we've been through. first it was transitory wherein then inflation is good and then we went to corporate greed and now we're at putin it's probably all the above, nout matter how slice you it it's all about commodities for the most part. and king commodity is energy, and most people then united states are reminded about that every three to four days when they go fill up their tanks. back to you. >> it is becoming very apparent to all of us it's out there steve liesman joins us now with more >> joe, i want to give you a headline here. the bank for international settlements, this is the central bank for central bankings has suspended russia right now it had something like 25 billion of reserves in there after i reported that the bis

clarified it would not be a way to surm circumvent the sanctions now it has excluded russia you to be very bad to get kicked out of the dis pause they tolerate an awful lot. on the inflation front no good news, food up 1% likely to go higher i am still struck by the conversation i had with the economics minister of ukraine earlier this week where he told me this is the planting season in ukraine and if it's not planted now it's not coming and a lot of the land they farm there is in places where there's military activity. apparel up strong. gas up 6.6%. now estimates are that it goes up 20% in the next month also with this whole idea of prices and oil rising we're not

in a good place going into this inflation wise and we'll be in a worse place in the months ahead. joe? >> all right, steve, thanks. i'm like a cat that you clap enough times you don't really notice as much, do you the cpi numbers come and -- >> why santoli is right when you expected these numbers, but when rick said the numbers i was like 7.9% year over year. >> remember 19 was the highest it's ever been >> all the way back. >> the south korean american countries are looking back and going 19 only to this day. coming up richard fisher is going to help us break dowthn e inflation data we just got stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on

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because happy customers are music to our ears. genesys, we're behind every customer smile. recapping the big inflation data we just got, february cpis surging 7.9% year over year. joining us now to talk about the data, what it could mean for the

fed's interest rate decision next week former fed president richard fisher, serves on the board of 10 want health care and is a cnbc contributor. thanks for joining us, richard we haven't talked to you i don't think since all this happened. do you think that -- obviously the fed's job probably even tougher at this point. but does it make the fed more likely or less likely to pursue the path they laid out for us, the war? >> i think they'll move coming up the numbers are way too strong one thing that has been mentioned even the release right now, the ppi in japan 9.3% that's the highest this data first started to be collected in 1981 this is a global phenomenon. we have significant pressures

ear. the fed is behind the curve. they need to shift and i believe they'll do it starting with this meeting. >> doesn't really seem to follow that logically, though, richard. because if it's everywhere it's already pandemic related or more recently the invasion of ukraine, which neither one of those seem like sort of organic and system wide problems for the type of -- of hyperinflation that we've seen those cycles in the past do you think those forces are also underlying the global inflation, sor is it just coming down the supply chain and now we've got the problems with russia >> you're right. that is piled on, but central bankers around the world have been hyperaccommodative for too long we're the key central bank of

the world and we need to lead, and i believe it's behind time to do so yes, there are transitory forces -- i'm going to use my rick santelli acting and should really be on broadway, by the way, but i really do think, joe, it's late in the game. mainly labor has come back in and makes you see it everywhere. look at small and medium sized companies. their biggest complaint how they price their services to make up their margins. this is something that needs to be countered here. the only way to deal with that tighter central banking, less accommodation,bri it down otherwise we're destroying

particularly those with low incomes at the lower end of the scale are being hurt the most. >> richard, you connect the dots between all the fed accommodation and staying in emergency mode much further than it should have you connect that to an ad lying inflation rate how much ofthal inflation rate is fed 4% >> that's impossible, joe. the fact is it's aiming in the wrong direction. it's time to change gears and they will. >> richard, how concerned are you especially about some of the growth stocks that are increasingly looking like they require capital. is there enough liquidity in the

market right now or is it that moment we're going to see who's wearing clothes when the water comes back i completely messed up that metaphor there you go, warren buffet said it >> you're going to see quite a few naked ugly bodies. come on 25 basis paints, ten year trading at 190 to 2 ets that's not too painful obviously pointed out earlier in the show how things have flattened. most businesses i've served on and other companies i'm familiar with they've pushed their debt towers i don't think they're being threatened by scooping up of interest rates here.

obviously if rates were to go up a jillion percent that's another story. >> all these growth companies that have either some revenues, no profits, some have no revenue. i'm thinking of the stacks in the private market, public that has been buoyed by lots of venture capital money. >> the market will clean them out. am i crying for them, no look, they were able to get away with a lot for a very long time. if you have no revenue or you have no profit, you're going to be priced accordingly. and we have had extreme violations for a very long time and led wii the ability to discount future a cash flows

because that period was free >> to this point that implies there's asset inflation, too who knows what all these assets are worth after all this time. so that's concerning and sounds like you're describing a recipe for stagflation. >> if that occurs, of course it does i've been around wall street 1974 the one thing, by the way, i want to add out of fairness here i was in the administration and assistant secretary to the treasury and one thing jimmy carter did was deregulate natural gas here we are in an administration reregulating and tightening as much as we could possibly get.

and i don't think that's a good policy that's how old i am, joe >> me too. i voted for carter i told you that. we all have things to atone for. he's a great man now he's a former president and does -- he deserves our love and respect. i like you with that glen youngkin vest on and like that whole look and it worked for him, right? >> running away from you, joe. >> see you later, richard. >> man, talk about the -- still have the image in my head who's swimming naked >> and what's worst a speedo or naked? i think a speedo might be worse. >> close call. neither leaves much to the imagination. come we come back could the meg uh-uh retailer and cloud company and logistics company be next in line to join the dow atth stock is up by 4.5% today

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the european central bank leaving rates unchanged this morning but saying it might conclude asset purchases in the third quarter of this year ecb president speaking right now in frankfurt, and steve liesman's been listening in and got more on this right now what do you know, steve? >> give you some headlines here. the ecb raising sharply its increases. that's a big jump. lowering its forecast to 3.7%. my guess is there's room to fall

further. inukrainian war will have impact on inflation and the economic activity, says the extent of it depends on the conflict and rise down growth and up inflation she just said so far the sanctions have far the sanctions haven't had a secure impact on the economy. it's interesting to watch le guard, becky, to react to the war. if she's on the front lines there. the impact will be measurably worse than here. she'll balance severely declining growth with much higher inflation we'll get some subset of that. but she's in a very different position there with high inflation above her target and more to come and lower growth. >> okay, steve thanks up next, we'll talk about amazon and 24 stock split does it mean a shake up in the dow isn't far off?

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a little more than half an hour -- half hour to go before the opening bell on wall street. dom chu has more. >> good morning. we'll get you caught up on the reversals that are happening from yesterday's trade to today's premarket action if you look at some of the big moves we saw yesterday, we did sigh a lot of big surge in

hospitality-related stocks like airlines today they're reversing course a little bit american airlines, norwegian, live nation, las vegas sands, and hilton worldwide among the travel and leisure gains on the other side of things, because of what happened with energy prices yesterday falling dramatically at one point, we did see oil company stocks fall as a result. today we're seeing, again, the reversal take hold chevron, exxon, occidental, diamondbacks energy. so that upward trend continues a check on the most popular tickers that were searched on the website by readers of cnbc.com maybe no surprise that amazon was the number one spot. a $2900 per share. you're talking about split adjusted in the future roughly $145 wti remains number two on the

list andrew, the rest of the top 10 highlights from the top 50 on my twitter feed @thedomino. amazon stock split raising lot of speculation that the company could become a dow component. next guest is the objects of the split and the substance of it. and here to tell us what he means gene munster what do you mean by that >> optics it make it looks cheaper. dom nailed it. $145 here and the split adjusted basis later on this year and then of the optics it makes it more attractive to retail investors. there's probably a little bit of substance to that. it's more important than a typical tech company stock split. the reason amazon has 1 1.3 million employees compared to apple at 150,000, google at

150,000. the majority in logistics. the majority make somewhere between $35,000 and $45,000 a year it gets in the substance of the stock split. if you reward an employee, it's a big theme for amazon over the last six months how they compensate their employees if do you reward an employee with one share it's a 10% bonus. it's pretty favorable. by doing the stock split, essentially you allow opening up a mechanism for giving shares to the logistics people who deserve this it also lines up interest just when employees own stock, presumably, they'll work a little bit harder. in the last piece of this is something amazon needs help with any costs you can shift from the wages side of the ledger over to the deferred stock, that's a positive. >> that's an interesting take. i like that take let me ask you separately what do you think of the idea of the buy back at the same time as the split. there's some people who argue if

you do one or the other, you know, you should do them at the same time. do a buy back and then a split. >> i don't know what the right timing is, but this buy back is pretty pathetic. i want to put in perspective the last buy back that amazon announced was six years ago. they have returned $2.2 billion to investors its not as bad as netflix that returned zero. it compares to facebook. they returned just under $70 billion over that period google just over $100 billion, and you guessed it, apple at $390 billion i think when i think about the timing and announcement, i'm more curious at looking under the hood i guess in today's metaphors, you would say, look, under the car here an electric car but really the substance of the businesses i think it really shows amazon tips their hand to netflix. they don't have a strong businesses when it comes to good-old fashioned earnings compared to apple or google.

>> when you think about the split, how much -- i mean, everybody is talking about the idea of should it be included in the dow. does that make sense to you? then you have to make calls about who should be included in the dow. what do you think about alphabet how do you think about it relative to others >> eventually all the big tech companies will find their way into the dow because eventually they will all become essentially consumer staple companies so i don't know the mechanism and the hurdles and the timing of when it can happen, but, you know, i think we're wringing our hands about the potential impact on recession will be to some of the stocks i think there's one thing when we zoom out to the highest level and look forward five years from now, we'll be just as accdepend on the companies as ever. >> you said the buy back to you is pathetic. why? >> pathetic. $10 billion is, i mean, when you compare it to, you know, i just put it up against what google

was doing and facebook $70 billion they returned it over the last six years and apple. it's not even close. >> i get it. do you want them using the money for a buy back or go ahead and make acquisitions. by the way, there's going to be stuff on sale. i'm thinking about the companies -- >> right. >> cut in half all the character casss. >> for sure. amazon should be giving. they shouldn't have a pathetic buy back program they're more aggressive mode i was illuminating the difference in the ability for the companies to produce earnings i think it gets lost in the anguish going on in the market today. if you work for an m & a and the big tech companies here, trying to figure out what washington is going to do. you're about as intense as ever to try to feel -- find some bargains to pick up here we'll see m & a activity in the

next 6 to 12 months. >> we're in agreement. thank you, gene munster. a quick final check on the markets. right now we're going to open lower about 300 or 400 points lower on the dow make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins now. good thursday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and mike santolli. the latest round of talks between russia and ukraine go nowhere. and february's cpi, all though no worse than expectations, it's still the hottest annual rate since '82. the monthly rate since october road map begins with the ongoing head winds for investors and consumers. inflation hitting the new decade high at 7.9. surgerying energy costs pushing prices even higher. >> there's n