house somewhere where you got a long commute, because -- >> i know. offsetting >> i live two states away, just saying >> dom is leaving now. >> i pay a lot of fuel costs >> thank you thank you for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> hello, and welcome to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen stocks are back on the downswing after yesterday's big rally, as the war in ukraine and inflation fears continue to hit sentiment. we are well off session lows the nasdaq leading the decline again, down around .75% as we head into the final hour of trading. >> i'm mike santoli. let's look at what's driving the action high level peace talks between russia and ukraine fail to yield any significant breakthroughs as russia continues the assault on its neighbor in the u.s., the latest read on inflation came in at a 40-year high, up 7.9% year over year and that was before the effects of the war and tech is getting hit particularly hard today with chinese internet named leading

the declines jd.com and pinduoduo both down double digits. >> coming up on today's show, two key figures on the world stage give their first interview since the start of the war in ukraine. we'll talk to janet yellen about how sanctions are working, how the crisis is impacting inflation, and her views on the broader economy. plus, imf manager on the spillover effects from the crushing blows to russia's economy and whether they can step in to help. let's focus on the big stories we're watching mike tracking all of the market action steve liesman with a closer look at how inflation and the crisis in europe are playing into the fed's policy timeline. mike, what are you watching? we're off the lows >> well off. we were down about 1.5% on the s&p at the low, we have spent the entire day between the highs and lows of the last two days. so that's kind of telling you that volatility, while it's still pronounced is somewhat

moderated today. and look, the story that we started the week talking about, market is bent but not quite broken down, it still seems to apply. 4100 to 4300 is what everyone keeps pointing out as this range that could act as some kind of support. what would mean a rally that got your attention that said maybe there's a chance for this being persuasive and decisive? probably up in the mid-4300s, 4360 so here you go, another 100 points and we can start talking about getting clearance from those lows oil retreating a little bit today. maybe just staying out of the way. now, sentiment has really been beaten down and positioning in terms of hedge funds and other investors really has gone into retreat. that tends to eventually be a contrarian bullish sign. this is the equity exposure. a weekly poll. it's pretty good in terms of tactical investors, what they're doing. it was really low last week. we bounced only slightly and again, these levels that i keep pointing to, back in 2016,

that were pretty low, people had a real purge, that's now sort of kind of matched some of the levels obviously, it was much worse back in the covid crash, but other than that, things are pretty light in terms of positioning. now, take a look here at liquidity. this is a feedback loop. goldman sachs pointing out this is how much basically in terms of market maker liquidity there is in s&p 500 futures. and it's in dollars. this is basically how much is available to trade at near what the price is now, and obviously, you see, it's very, very minimal. again, back to early 2016, as i keep saying, and late 2018 sometimes it's just a reaction to volatility, and then sometimes it helps to cause the volatility because the market has to move farther in price to find people willing to transact. >> we also got a big inflation report this morning which we're going to dive into in a second, but came in hotter than ex expected, only going to get worse. i saw the ten-year go back above

2%, but we were there in february >> yields got lifted across the board. started with the ecb hotter than expected but was it hotter than the market was really positioned for? this isn't the decisive month in terms of that data right now, and we have the fed meeting next week steve is going to talk all about that all things considered, the equity market seemed to think maybe it could have been worse >> we didn't get an 8 handle that was always a possibility. the consumer priceindex jumpin 7.9% in february versus last year the highest level since the early '80s steve liesman is here with a look at how the rising prices and the war in ukraine are factoring into the fed's calculus into an important meeting next week. >> yeah, for sure. and thanks for the assist there from santoli the february cpi report showing that even before the russian invasion of ukraine, inflation in the u.s. was high accelerating, and broad based, and now everybody agrees it's about to get worse really in answer to your

question to mike on the yields, while markets continue to price in aggressive rate hikes, they remain about where they were you can see strong probabilities based on four consecutive rate hikes at each meeting through june that would bring the rate to 1.13%, i guess that's by july, and priced in with just a little less conviction are two more rate hikes beginning in september and then one in december pressure continues to build for the fed to embark, says the folks over at bank of the west, on an aggressive monetary tightening this year to help cool inflationary forces that are only likely to be aggravated in the months ahead by the fallout from the ukraine/russia war. here's a big problem the fed has the coming inflation linked to the war overlapped with where the inflation already has been, like gasoline. that number could be 20% next month. food and housing, all of those are still going to be on the rise whatever issues the u.s. faces, they're worse for european

central bank president christine lagarde. she was out there today and said this morning inflation is now expected to be higher. growth lower, all the results of the invasion the ecb has decided to accelerate some steps to remove accommodation. >> some people were surprised to hear her sounding so hawkish on taking out the emergency support, given what's happening in russia and the spillover for europe is there a feeling, steve, that the central bankers, the major ones in europe and the u.s., are now more focused on fighting inflation than they are about economic growth and are possibly going to risk recession because of it? >> yeah, well, let me make two important points thatyou're aware of first, that lagarde has only one mandate, it's inflation. she has another problem. the euro weakened and that's also inflationary as well. if you're a central banker and that chart i think i showed, where inflation has been, it's

going to be again. those are the things that were supposed to come off, like gasoline and energy, we were increasing production in the u.s. not enough to make up for what's going on with russia and gas prices right now that's going to be a 20% number, if you're powell, you have that one little tailwind from the dollar on inflation, everything else is a huge gale in your face when it comes to inflation >> i think she's got an even tougher task than he has, and they both have pretty tough ones right now. steve, thank you >> after the break, will the war in ukraine and the punishing sanctions against russia push europe into a recession. we'll ask imf manager director >> also, the odds of a russian default. you're watching "closing bell. dow down 183 well off the lows, which were down 466

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fund just approved $1.4 billion for ukraine, as ukrainian government adviser estimates today damages so far in that country of $100 billion from the war. i did just speak with the head of the imf, kristalina georgieva, her first interview since the war began, and started by asking how that money will be spent and whether it's enough. >> we have approved $1.4 billion as emergency financing for ukraine. it is specifically to keep the government functioning for payments to be paid, for salaries to be paid, for key functioning of the government to be supported of course, once the war is over,

there would be a massive reconstruction need for the country. and while we don't yet have an assessment of how massive, i would say that the order of magnitude that ukrainian government is talking about is not completely out of proportion we have discussed with president zelenskyy that he would like the imf when time comes to be mobilizing financing for supporting people, businesses, and rebuilding the economy and of course, i can only pray for this moment to come as soon as possible. >> no question about it. what about the damage in russia, where we have seen a currency crisis, the economy and financial system essentially cut off from the rest of the world credit default swaps are

indicating rising chance of default. what's your prediction about whether that happens and how bad it gets there? the economy. >> the unprecedented sanctions imposed on russia have pushed the country into recession our assessment is that it would be a deep recession. in addition to the abrupt contraction of the russian economy, we see the ruble depreciating dramatically, and what it means is that the purchasing power of the majority of the russian population is severely impacted. and as for default, no longer this is improbable event i would not speculate how probable because of course there are two factors there, how long the war is going to last, how

long the sanctions are going to last and also, what would be decided around russia having some ability to possibly pay some of its debt and none of this is clear at this point >> what about systemic risk? what's the threat of that if russia does default? >> look, the way we see the situation today is terrible for ukraine. massive suffering and destruction of the economy bad recession in russia. but also spillover impacts on the neighbors and the rest of the world. three channels one, commodity prices, energy, food if you look at the impact on even metals, quite significant second, the push on inflation

that is going to affect real incomes across the world and therefore possibly affect demand and the real economy. and three, business confidence so while we are looking at this triage, it is most terrible for ukraine. it is very bad for russia. and we look at the rest of the world. we think that we would be downgrading our growth projections as a result of this crisis but we still expect the world to be in a positive growth territory. >> that's what i was going to ask. do you think europe could go into recession now >> well, russia definitely is going into recession it is too early to judge whether spillovers in some of the neighboring countries like central asia, the caucusus, that

this spillover could be for some of them very dramatic. where we're concerned is how would tightening of financial conditions affect countries that have been slow to recover from the covid-induced crisis and whether we may see the lingering of some of this economies that are at higher risk of the impact of tightening of financial conditions because they have high level of debt what that may mean some sparking of recessionary fears. but for the world as a whole, we are expecting that we would come with downgrade and yet positive trajectory for the world economy. obviously, how long this war goes is the main uncertainty factor we face >> well, positive growth is

something. what about the chinese i know you're in touch with a lot of the economic officials there. do you see the relationship between china and russia economically strengthening here? >> well, what i can say is that i had a call yesterday with the governor of the people's bank of china. and what i heard from him was grave concern about the loss of human lives, the suffering in ukraine. so what we are seeing actually across the board is a strong reaction to the war in ukraine and how this is going to impact the relations across countries still to be seen, but i wouldn't be surprised if we actually see

a bit more of a pressure on russia to stop the war because of the spillover it has on everybody, on all economies. >> and finally, what about the imf's own position when it comes to russia? russia has access, i believe, to $17 billion through the sdrs, the financial lifeline that is the imf. russia has its representative is the head of the executive committee right now, effectively, at the imf. are you able to step in and help if things get worse there or even right now given the position of the world community right now and the sanctions. >> well, what i can tell you is that across the membership, there is a very strong reaction, condemnation of the war. we do not have at this time any

programs with russia, any engagement with russia, and our moscow office is not operational. as for the sdrs, for russia to be able to use the sdrs, they need to find a willing party and then overcome the restrictions from the sanctions on financial transactions so i find it very unlikely that any use can be made of the sdrs. and what i can also say is that we are looking at the importance of keeping the world together, and today, the world is together on the page of we want this war to end >> head of the imf, kristalina georgieva, on the front lines of fighting this crisis as it is an economic one and financial one,

and igot a lot out of that, including some of her conversations with other world leaders like president zelenskyy. they're already talking about the imf stepping in when this war is over to help rebuild the country and its infrastructure and businesses right now, they're just getting a lifeline to help keep the government open. the conversation with china's central bank governor about how he expressed grave concern about the loss of life and the spillover effect on the global economy, and she expects more pressure from china on russia to end the war, and of course, on the global economy, obviously, she expects a downgrade, but still does think we could get positive growth. >> that is reassuring that there is that growth cushion to some degree really, though, emphasizing the degree, unprecedented degree of isolation of russia financially -- >> even the imf can't help them, with sdrs. >> they're going to be attentive to any contagion risk, anything systemic in terms of quantity, concentration of the risk to

russian sovereign debt, it seems manageable for the world system. in '98 when russia defaulted, it was one of many things going on. a much more leveraged system by the way, oil was crashing to $10 a barrel people forget that part of it, and that was also destabilizing. >> and russia was more linked with the global economy, so maybe more of an effect there. >> we're going to talk more about some of these issues next hour when we're joined by treasury secretary janet yellen about the sanctions andthe impact here on the domestic economy with inflation already so hot, as evidenced by today's report >> absolutely. we've got about 39 minutes left before the bell. the dow is down 140. still well off the lows. the s&p 500 down .5%, it had been down 1.5% at the lows nasdaq down almost 1%. chinese internet stocks are getting wrecked. adding to the pain we have seen all year in that space we will explore what's driving today's move next. and as we head to break, check out some of today's top searched tickers on cnbc.com

amazon in the lead today, on the back of its stock split news, followed by the ten-year yield, crude oil, ale, ppand tesla. we'll be right back. adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere. i am here.

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welcome back the nasdaq getting hid heart today, and chinese tech is a big part of that weakness. kristina partsinevelos has a look at what's pressuringthosis names. >> u.s. regulators called out five chinese companies listed in new york asking them to hand over detailed audit documents to back up their financial statements they have three years to comply or risk delisting from the nasdaq as well as the stock exchange the regulators' move comes after the united states passed the holding foreign companies accountable act last year. xi lab and yum are just a few names listed the announcement triggered a sell-off in chinese stocks that trade in the united states you can see this plunge on the two-day chart on your screen, and the china internet etf kweb

is down almost 10% if it ends the day more than 10%, it will be the worst day ever since its inception in 2013 problem is beijing has blocked domestic companies and their chinese auditors from complying with requests from foreign regulators, aka, the s.e.c guys >> thank you for the update on those chinese tech stocks. >> still to come, former fed vice chair roger ferguson shares his thoughts on what the central bank should be doing next week and saying and the growing fears of stagflation. a check for you on bonds yields are higher again today. the ten-year briefly moving back above 2% first time since february we have seen that the 30-year making news today as well, with that yield moving up to the highest since last may. the level there we saw a little earlier, just off the highs. we'll be right back here on "closing bell.

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30 minutes left of trading let's check in on individual market movers now. peloton testing a new pricing structure starting tomorrow. it's going to allow customers to pay one monthly fee that covers the bike and subscription service. the fee will range from $60 to $100 a month and come with an option to cancel or return the bike at any time stock is down about 3.5% agriculture stocks jumping this morning on news russia is temporarily suspending fertilizer exports stocks then got another pop just before 1:00 p.m. eastern when a top commodities trader told scott wapner he's worried about food shortages as the year

progresses but he does see opportunities arising in the agriculture stocks >> the cheapest farmland and farming company in the world is traded on the new york stock exchange at more than a 15% free cash flow yield, but a company like mosaic is positioned to benefit for years to come and it's trading at under four times ebitda the stock traded well over $80 11 years ago it traded over $150 in 2008, so that aspect of whether it's the absolute grains and row cropsory the farming equities or the fertilizer stocks like mosaic, those are the ones that are structurally positioned to benefit from this. >> those stocks pretty much all higher in the trade today. getting another lift, and already we're seeing so many of the impacts of russia closing off its economy on commodities, now fertilizers as well, getting restrained on exports. >> massive global restraint on the supplies even before this, so it's going to be a test of the entire

supply chain, food wise. remember ten years ago, potash was one of the hottest stocks going? we're back to those days where it's fertilizer stocks >> hot again for the wrong reasons. >> time now for a cnbc news update with rahel solomon. >> hires what's happening at this hour. the census bureau says it undercounted the u.s. population by nearly 19 million people. while the overall undercount fell from the 2010 census, the number of minorities count ed declined a culture of complacency at a u.s. military base in kenya where three people died in a 2020 attack. they also found poor leadership and inadequate training that led to a false sense of security for the first time, the islamic state has confirmed its leader was killed in a u.s. raid last month. american officials said he blew up himself and some of his family during the raid on his

hideout. the militant group also named a new leader >> and here's one effect of western sanctions on russia. malls full of closed stores. the levi's and hugo boss stores were among those dark. shoppers there say prices are up and long lines are forming at the stores that are open sara, back to you. >> a deep recession is how the imf chief just characterized it there. rahel, shaung. >> we have just under 30 minutes to go before the bell. here's where we stand in the market well off session lows right now, but still lower across the board. nasdaq hit the hardest we do see the ten-year go back above 2%, that key level small caps giving back about .5%. they have been outperforming all week inflation at a 40-year high. up next, former fed vice chair roger ferguson weighing in on the jump in prices and what he says should be the major concerns for the fed right now plus, treasury secretary janet yellen on the record about the

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stocks pulling back as this morning's cpi data showed inflation jumping 7.9% year over year this 40-year high comes just ahead of the federal reserve's meeting next week. where the fed is expected to raise interest rates joining us now is former vice chair of the federal eserve, roger ferguson roger, it's great to have you here good to see you. clearly, zero percent short term rates is probably incompatible or inappropriate for 7.9% cpi, as well as really sub-4% unemployment so the market on board with the

initiation of some tightening here rate increases but how do you think this threat to growth, the geopolitical setup is going to feed into next week's debate and the policy outlook? >> i think, first, thank you for having me on absolute right that the fed is clearly going to move 25 basis points next week chairman powell clearly indicated that to answer your question, i think what they're going to indicate is there a two inflation which is far beyond their 2% goal. and at the same time, they're going to have to recognize that the risks as the chairman said in his testimony, are much higher than had been originally expected so while they're going to be mover, i think what they're going to indicate is a lot of prudence about not moving so far and so quickly as to throw off this very fragile situation into a recession. >> the focus on inflation expectations over the last year or so has been pretty acute.

obviously, the fed wants to make sure that consumers and businesses don't just essentially extrapolate inflation from now on and therefore it becomes much more of a structural problem. do you think the fed is taking any comfort in the fact that the market seems to be okay with pricing in several hikes and in fact longer term market based inflation expectations have not necessarily really become unanchored yet >> i think they're taking some comfort in that, for sure. having said that, there are some surveys of ceos that suggest that inflation expectations are still a little higher than maybe they would like. and even if you look at the market, what the market is saying is over the next five years inflation probably starting at a three handle, five years out, perhaps starting at a two handle, but still 2.5% so inflation expectations have not gotten beyond the fed. but they clearly are still somewhere above the 2% target. i think it's a bit of a mixed message there. not panic, but certainly the fed

needs to watch those inflation expectations carefully so they don't keep continuing to ratchet up >> this dirty word keeps making the rounds and getting priced in here, which is stagflation, the threat of higher inflation with slower economic growth how dangerous is that, and what can the fed do about it? >> so, stagflation is clearly a serious problem. but we should be quite clear, we already have higher inflation. everyone is marking down the growth expectations. the issue is how do you balance? we still are expecting growth in pause tiv territory, we're not talking about a recession. we are expecting inflation to gradually come down. so the issue here is to differentiate what we're confronting now versus what we have confronted in the 1970s, which was a much more virulent type of stagflation. so i say right now, fed still has a great deal of credibility in the market. they're ready to move. so i think we're doing to

clearly have somewhat higher inflation, somewhat slower growth than we expected, but i would say right now, the fed still has some room to maneuver. having said that, getting to a soft landing is always a tricky thing. >> yeah, and it seems one of the trickier setups right now than we have had in memory. what about the way the market otherwise is behaving ahead of this meeting it's been pointed out that there's never been an initial fed rate hike when the equity volatility index is above 30 we're sitting on about a 12% pullback in u.s. stocks. credit spreads have widened out a little bit how sensitive will this fed be to those signals from financial markets at this point? >> i think right now, the fed really should keep the focus on inflation, and clearly, validate the credibility it has earned and validate the market expectation that it is going to start to raise rates, but at a very, very sensitive and prudent

manner having said that, i say basically markets are doing what they're supposed to do they're reflecting a wide degree of uncertainty, yes, a high degree of volatility, but we're also seeing that there's no absence of liquidity, ands a you pointed out earlier, inflation expectations are well contained. i don't think the market action should constrain the fed from doing what both it and the market expect, which is at least the first move out of several to come, i believe. >> how many hikes do you think they'll be able to get this year >> well, obviously, no one knows for sure my expectation is probably around four. then take a look and see where things are and obviously, what they're confronting is acute volatility and uncertainty. and so i would argue, you know, think about four perhaps, but maybe take a pause and see how things are unfolding the market, i think, is expecting many more than that, but the uncertainty around the geopolitical situation, i

believe, merits a certain amount of attention >> do you think they'll be able to start to shrink the balance sheet as well this year? >> i think they're going to first focus on the interest rate hikes. i think they clearly are going to be able to stop the process of purchases, and they already intend to do that. shrinking the balance sheet, i think, may be one step a little too far, but we'll see how things go, because they clearly recognize that this issue of stagflation, if they're not careful, if they don't give just the right amount of stimulus while pulling back just the right amount, they could inadvertently do something they don't want to do, which is trigger a decline in gdp, a small recession. >> roger ferguson, great to get your thoughts today. thank you very much. >> thank you all right, amazon announcing a 20 for 1 stock split yesterday. when we come back, we'll look at three high-priced stocks that

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. welcome back here's a look at what is ahead in the second hour of "closing bell." treasury secretary janet yellen will join us in her first tv interview since the start of the war in ukraine we'll get earnings results from oracle and rivian. we'll break down rivian's quarter with an ev analyst the ceo of magic leap will tell us about the company's new push to bring augmented reality to enterprise customers, and we will check the charts on one hard-hit blue chip stock, and discuss whether it's starting to look cheap first, under 13 minutes to go

here in the trading day. we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. joining us today is high tower chief investment strategist stephanie link we'll kick it off with the broader market here. stocks are lower, pulling back after yesterday's massive rally, but off the worst levels of the day. nasdaq was down more than 2% at the session low. it's down about 1%, and overall, steph, we're still tracking for a negative week. a week that was defined by a lot of wild swings very high oil prices, and then a very sharp pullback. it's hard to figure out where all of these trends go while we still have a war going on in ukraine and a lot of commodities getting cut off from the world what do you do >> well, i try not to do too much because there are a lot of uncertainties, as you mentioned and we have day-to-day fluct fluctuations we don't feel good today because the markets were down, but we felt really good yesterday when the markets were up. we're kind of hostage to russia and ukraine headlines. inflation, of course, and then the fed. they're the same three things we

keep on rehashing. the good news about -- there is only good news about russia/ukraine is history from an investment point of view is on our side for the long term. the markets can recover and eventually we will eventually, the markets will recover. and in terms of inflation, those numbers were hot i know they were just in line, but 7.9% cpi and 4.7% on rents that is actually, and that number is going higher according to the dallas fed, to 6.5% at the end of '23 that's something that's worrisome. and of course, the fed, can they engineer a soft landing? whether they do four hikes seven hikes, ten hikes, i don't think that's going to materially slow inflation, unfortunately. we have these things we're dealing with, so that's whyi tend to just kind of put the blinders on, focus on fundamentals, quality stories, valuations matter, and i can kind of pick a way i'm not taking big sector bets at this point because of the uncertainty. i am trying to find some ideas

into the weakness, into the weak days >> well, speaking, steph, of the interplay of valuations and fundamentals, all of the declines so far, 12% in the s&p, 20% in the nasdaq, has been relieving of valuation multiples. in other words, the earnings forecast has continued to go higher, at least a little bit, on the index level so it's not necessarily about a radical downward revision of profit outlooks. however, to what degree do we have to be bracing for that, if you look at the leading indicators ofearnings revision and things like that, are we going to be in for a round of, you know, of downward revisions that we have to absorb into the market as well >> that's the magical question, michael. i would think that there are going to be companies that don't have pricing power that are going to struggle a bit. i think those are the sectors that you're seeing you wouldn't expect, say, for example, the consumer staple stocks to be really weak, but

they are really weak a lot of them have international exposure a lot of european exposure and they do have some pricing power but of course they're going to be hit on the demand side and demand destruction side of things. you're going to have to go sector by sector in terms of where we think the numbers are coming down. ironically, i think the numbers are not going down in technology they're the ones getting hit the hardest. that's why i have not been adding to the technology sector, because i have been underweight, as you know, but you're right. we went 21.4 times earnings on the s&p to 18.7 times. who is to say we can't go to the average, which is 16 times we could, so that's why you have to make your shopping list >> although i have noted the equal weighted s&p is at 16 or a little under 16 on forward multiple, so it is still the mega cap expoensive growth stock holding up the pe. let's move to some of the vulnerable parts of the world. goldman sachs laying out a strategy to help investors avoid

exposure to europe >> it's an investment strategy that often gets used in times of great geopolitical uncertainty buying stocks that have minimal exposure to europe as more economists cut their gdp targets due to the ongoing russia/ukraine conflict. the retailers, target, dollar general, ross stores with nearly all revenue generated here in the u.s. whereas companies like booking holdings, meta, ebay generate a high percentage of sales in europe other tech names on the list include accenture, the i.t. consulting firm, paypal, and on semi-conductor, a large chip player all three of those tech stocks are down about 15% paypal, i should mention, already down 47% this year >> yeah, that one preceded the rest of the market >> other problems too. >> absolutely. thank you very much. steph, are we back to this mode of trying to stick to domestic

exposed companies and shun the rest of the world? it feels familiar from, you know, let's say the cycle of the last decade. >> yeah, i mean, it certainly won't hurt, but the companies have to execute. i would argue that there are some companies that have european exposure, global exposure that are doing very well but to your point, i think certainly, i want to shift a little bit more here to the u.s. one of the names that seema was talking about, target, that was my zone in idea last week. i think that's a great idea for this kind of an environment. and i like their algorithm of kind of low single digit comps, midsingle digit operating income, high single digit earnings, and they just have a great business mix in terms of discretionary as well as c consumable instead of ross stores, i like tj they have about 15% exposure to europe, but guess what, they are actually executing better than ross stores. so it's going to be a name by

name basis i would throw unp in there, wells fargo in there so there's a lot of companies you can pick and choose from just make sure you're prudent of the valuation. >> well, the buy domestic stock story has worked the russell 2000 is up .6% this week everyone else is down. >> russell did have its 20% drop it almost preceded the s&p into this decline >> it's not like other things bounced back this week there's something to that. >> no doubt. >> check out shares of amazon, jumping 6% after the company announced it's planning a 20 for 1 stock split and a $10 billion buyback. while the stock splits don't change anything about the company, bank of america took look at the data and found since 1980, companies that announce stock splits do outperform the s&p by an average of 16% in the next 12 months b of a also pulling a list of other high priced stocks, asking if any could be the next to

announce a split some from that list included booking holdings which we just mentioned, auto zone, and chipotle do you subscribe to that, steph? i sort of -- it shouldn't matter it's a stock split, i do think it's interesting the signal that management and the company is giving as far as being investor friendly and maybe that ultimately does add up to a stronger stock price in the next 12 months. what do you think? >> i subscribe to it the numbers are the numbers. 16.3% average gain since 1980 for those companies that have split. so i like the concept. i wouldn't buy a stock just because of it. i'm hopeful, that list they had, they had broadcom on that list and they had costco on that list you know i want to get back into costco i'm kind of hoping we're going to see a few more of these splits in terms of for amazon, i don't know i think it's really maybe for sentiment, for retail, for their

employees. the buyback is kind of silly because it's .7% of their shares outstanding and retires the buyback they had in place from 2016, which was $5 billion, and they still have $2.9 billion left on that hopefully they mean it when they say they're going to buy back their stocks, but this is a sign for amazon shareholders of confidence and especially on the margin side. so maybe when you don't have as much heavy investment and the margins can actually drift higher, that's when you get operating leverage that typically is when the stock tends to work. >> yeah, we are entering one of those faphases of those prospects for future stock splits, my favorite is booking holding because it's the former priceline and priceline was a '90s bubble stock. it got to $1,000 in the bear market after that, it got to $7 are they still gun shy about splitting the stock and having another near death experience about the market splitting their

stock 100 for 1 at one point over the years meanwhile, steph, we want to get to your zone in pick for this week, the top trade idea what is it >> yeah, i like american express. i have been adding to it on weakness the stock is down 20% from its highs. now trades at a very reasonable 17 times multiple. and the russian and uke exposur is 1% of total revenues and global payment volumes this company just beat earnings, gave a long term range of total revenues of 18% to 20% for the long term. earnings are going to grow mid-teens. they're doing a good job controlling op-ex, and talking about growing loans for the foreseeable future which is in the cards, clearly, but they're taking market share. i like this story a lot, and this financial, down a lot, i don't see the reason why you want to add it here. >> obviously, always sensitive to, you know, higher end consumer spending trends and

things like that, but definitely seems like it's been discounted to this point. let's take a look at the market action into the close. we are getting a little more of a lift in the indexes in the last few minutes here. the dow is down less than 100 at this point the s&p down just a little more than .3% we keep testing these lower levels in the 4200 area, 4250 has seemed significant here you have the volume split almost even here it started out 3 to 1 declining to advancing volume this morning and now the equal weighted s&p is also outperforming and that's a sign of a little bit of resilience below the surface we'll see if that comes to anything tomorrow. i wanted to look at apple as well it has been a stock that has held up a whole lot better than the rest of the nasdaq, and really the rest of the market as a whole. it had been down more than 3% for much of this day, and the key thing is the levels. it was in the 1.57 area. if you look on the chart, early september and late november, both times those levels were right under 1.57, so it's

staying above there. a lot of folks say look, this correction can't be over if apple remains untouched and here you're seeing it restretrench a little bit the volatility index has been an interesting story all day. even when the market was lower by 1.5%, the s&p, the vix was down now, it's been elevated above 30 for multiple days in a row that means there's already been a lot of hedging and it requires huge daily moves for the vix to stay up at these levels but maybe a positive that it's recede aglittle bit. the vix futures also cooperating to some degree and no longer acting as if they're in this high stress situation right now, and i mentioned the equal weight s&p, it's down only .3% right now as we head toward the close. gold getting another boost now it's above $2,000, as we have the fed meeting next week and the inflation figures also on everybody's mind. as we finish up, dow will be

down .3% russell 2000 outperforming, above 2,000 mark once again, and the nasdaq goes out with a decline of roughly 1% on the day. >> looks like we were going to close at the highs of the session and got a spill into the close. down 113 on the dow at the close. welcome back to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen here with mike santoli. coming up this hour, an ex exclusive interview with the treasury secretary of the united states, janet yellen >> and plus, instant analysis of results from oracleand rivian just moments away. first up, stephanie link is still with us. what led the market today was actually energy stocks they were up 3%. i say that because crude oil prices were down and actually crude oil is tracking for a much

sharply lower week because a lot of that was priced in as far as the u.s. banning exports or imports from russia on oil prices is it too late to get into these energy stocks? we're now up 38.5% year to date. >> well, i have been net selling, trimming, i should say. so diabeck energy and schlumberger also a couple days ago. these stocks have had enormous runs it feels like -- it just feels a little too frothy at this point. but by no means am i getting underweight energy by the way, it's only 4% of my benchmark, but a long time ago, it was only 2.5% for like five years. clearly, there's interest. the fundamental story has changed. the companies are using their free cash flow, and boy do they have it, and they're sending it back to shareholders and buybacks and dividends, and some capx, and that's what they should be doing instead of producing and they normally

overproduce and do making it a boon/bust kind of industry maybe they learned they got religion we'll see. at this point, there are some fundamental stories to be had. they had such anice run, so i' looking for maybe a pullback to maybe reload and get back in >> kris harvey, wondering how you're reading the markets kind of not just the day-to-day twitches in the indexes but the fact we have been kind of spending so much time in this zone we got to the levels of today back in late january this correction has been in place for a while. is that a net positive showing resilience or do you think it means we're kind of using up the buying power just to stand still? >> mike, i think it's a net positive, but there's still a ton of uncertainty that's what you see. the market can't figure out what it wants to do one day you think you have positive headlines coming out of russia/ukraine and the next day you hear the exact opposite. it's difficult to handicap at this juncture.

i think our conversation with a lot of clients is we don't want to put on a ton of risk. you don't want to make too big of a directional bet and you don't want to commit too much. overall, to answer the question, i think it's a positive that the market is able to churn here we were thinking the market would have a 10% correction. we got that. we're beginning to put some money to work, but tentatively >> putting money to work where, chris? >> we're really doing it -- it's not so much a particular sector, but it's more about a style. we want companies that have really clean balance sheets. we want companies that do have secular pricing power. and we want more of those garby type companies we run a model portfolio called the signature picks portfolio, and two recent additions have been nextara and danaher they have good pricing power as we go forward in time. >> interested to see you recently also weighted into small cap growth, which is

essentially really peaked about a year ago it really preceded the overall market correction, got beat up, lots of unprofitable companies what are you finding there in terms of a tactical opportunity? >> so, mike, that's right. as a matter of fact, a year ago, we stepped off that train. and there's been a tremendous amount of underperformance, and that was one of the things that we looked at the other thing we looked at was that we have seen short interest go higher. we thought that's a positive because that's a cover in addition to that, these are more domestically oriented names, and the last thing is we went with small cap, small cap growth, because we're beginning to believe we're heading into a s stagflationary environment and this is much more constructive for growth >> steph, chris uses the word garpy a lot, growth at a reasonable price it's a trend we're seeing from a lot of investment managers and

institutions how do you view those stocks is that a strategy for you >> yeah t is a strategy for me, because i run a large cap core portfolio, and that's a blend of value and a blend of growth, but it has a garpy style to it look, 75% of the s&p 500 is growth so if my benchmark is growth and i'm a large cap portfolio manager, i have to have some growth, but i look for high quality, good free cash flows, really clean balance sheets, especially in this kind of environment where things are uncertain, if you will i also think that growth will make a comeback, and that's one of the reasons why i said before that i am looking to cover some of my underweight in technology. i have been underweight tech for a long time and comp services, by the way, for a very long time i think as growth slows here in the u.s., and it will, in the second half of the year, that's when growth will outperform again, i believe, and it's going to be tech for me, i'm going to pick the

garpy tech, and that's what i have been doing with catalyst, by the way that's important >> chris, you mentioned that you do expect it to be a stag flashzary environment. could you just deflienine that what's the stag part, 2% real growth, worse than that? and how much do you think inflation might moderate, if at all? >> okay, so this is not a semistagflation. it's higher inflation and slower growth and what is higher inflation if we look at ten-year break evens. it's over 2.5% if we look at slower growth, it's just a decelerating rate of growth which is what we're seeing and when we think about it, what's happening over in europe is causing more inflation or what we think is going to be sustained inflation. we thought that prior to this geopolitical situation, inflation was coming down. we were in a good spot we were beginning to see some positive around the supply chain. but now, what this does, it

creates -- there's a bunch of dislocations in and around energy, but really, it puts security above price europe is more worried about energy security than the price of security at this point in time so they're going to do everything they can to get that energy security. now, what we're seeing is other countries and other regions of the world are saying, you know what, it's not just about energy it's about energy, it's about ag, it's about semi-conductors and the world was already moving away from this global trade modtool a more regional one. this is speeding up onshoring, going to speed up that move away from the global trade. those frfrictional costs are gog to keep inflation higher and this is something we'll be talking about forquarters and years. >> and why would small cap growth be suited to that type of environment? is that simply just what history tells you? >> yeah, so typically, when you have stagflation, you want to veer away from your more

economically sensitive names you want to veer away from things that are more value oriented you want to, what particularly works very well are companies that can power through, that have steady earnings, steady growth, no matter what the environment is and if you think about it, inflation is going to start to eke into a lot of the growth it's going to eat into a lot of spending you want companies that are better prepared for that environment, and typically, that's a more growthy type environment. and that environment, you know, that's an environment we have seen a lot in the past and i think it's something we're going to see a lot as we go forward in time. >> just want to hit the oracle numbers quickly because they are just crossing, and it looks like a miss on the bottom line, 113 adjusted earnings expectation was around 118 and revenues in line, $10.5 billion. expectation was $10.5 billion adjusted as far as what is underpinning the growth, as far as revenues,

cloud. that continues to be the good story for oracle $2.8 billion, that's up 24%, and that's a combination of some of its cloud businesses stock is down about 6% it's a bottom line miss. i'll dig through it, see if we get anything on numbers for fourth quarter and full year guidance but remember, oracle last quarter came in in a very strong way. stock jumped 16% on a big surge in cloud revenue it's underperformed but so has all of software and technology stocks and has overall been an outperformer over the last year or so. >> definitely like a lot of these charts that had a big run into the later part of last year and given much of it up. steph, oracle, does this fit into any of your lanes of what you would be looking for >> no, not oracle. i just think their execution is pretty inconsistent. it has been over the years you know i own ibm, and that's

my turnaround story, and hpe, hp enterprise, and they had a great quarter. those are the two in this area that i would buy the biggest thing for oracle, i think, on the call is really going to beaddressing the cerner acquisition and whether they can monetize this deal. that's going to be the biggest piece. the synergy numbers out there i have seen is $1.4 billion in the second half of this year and into '23 that's the big number to watch for, for sure. i know the street was kind of lukewarm on the deal, but that's going to be important. i think cloud works fine workday had a great number, maybe the expectations got ahead of themselves on oracle. >> ibm only down, steph, 7% year to date. has outperformed the market. are people catching on >> only down 7%. welcome to my world. i think it's early on innings for ibm. you know the ceo well. i think they're blocking and

tackling, and they're just making cloud acquisitions. they're kind of streamlining their operations and they are focusing on cloud and i think they're going to do it it's just going to take a bunch of quarters for them to do it. in the meantime, they have strong free cash flow. they are buying back their stock. i love that dividend that's a great dividend. so it's a more defensive play in the market it's not really exciting yet, but i think it's going to get exciting eventually. >> chris, what is your read on what bonds are up to right now we obviously have seen this return higher in yields. after that safety trade kicked in we're caught between what the fed is going to do and maybe some risk aversion out there, and then there's been some curve flattening what are you deriving from that in terms of a message? >> mike, it's a great question i'm not sure i have a great answer when we look at the ufrb can, look at rates, look at spreads spreads have widened significantly. that's generally not a great sign, but one thing we keep

coming back to is this might be pulling in more investors. your all-in yields are higher. underlying fundamentals look okay if we can get more stability, we can attract more investors into the space. as far as the fed, i think we're probably in consensus at this point in time. we think a lot of the geopolitical will start to overhang the fed to a small degree what i mean by that is if you're making a decision and there's more and more uncertainty about that decision, you generally don't speed up you generally don't become more aggressive you generally slow things down, and you take more moderate approach i think that's what the fed is doing. that's the impact that's been on the interest rate market, but it's funny how volatile it has been, and it's really tough, again, what's happening in ukraine and russia, it's really -- it's difficult it's an unknown at this point in time the cake hasn't been baked whatever analogy you want to use, so the market just kind of swings wildly based on any sort of story or rumor you see out. but overall, we're finding bonds

with higher spreads and higher rates beginning to become more interesting. and maybe we're going to begin to see some things stabilize >> 239 was the high on the 30-year, st stephanie and chris thank you for joining us >> we're getting breaking news from washington. let's go to kayla tausche with details. >> the biden administration says north korea is testing a new intercontinental ballistic missile system based on data from two recent launches that intelligence agencies are assessing. the two launches the white house sees as a serious escalation, according to senior administration officials these officials say north korea appears to still be testing the system because the most recent launches did not show the range or capability of prior launches. but these officials say they could in the near future the treasury department is expected to slap new sanctions on pyongyang tomorrow in response president biden is willing to

meet kim jong-un with no preconditions of staff level talks, according to officials, but there was no word on when that could happen. sara and mike. >> kayla, thank you. yet another thing to pay attention to >> all the world needs right now. >> absolutely. bl we are just getting started on the second hour of "closing bell." we're awaiting rivian's results. we'll discuss the outlook for the ev industry as nickel prices soar >> later, treasury secretary janet yellen on how the sanctions against russia could impact the u.san. d global economy. we're back in two minutes. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner.

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. we are still awaiting results from rivian at this point. they are not out yet, of course, that's the emerging electric vehicle maker. joining us now to talk about the industry as a whole, global head of sustainable research, jed, good to talk to you. interesting moment here for this industry, where you have oil prices improving from a consumer

perspective. the risk/reward, the tradeoff of going electric you have seen some indications of higher orders at the same time, commodity costs making things tough for manufacturers. how do you put that together in terms of where the opportunities are for the stocks >> well, i think in the near term, you're seeing the market trying to struggle to recalibrate what the actual global impact is, and you're seeing explain chain challenges all around and evs are not going to be immune from that at all. if we take a step back and look further out, our position on evs is that what we see happening in terms of geopolitics is really about energy problems. in terms of a lack thereof, actually so how do we move to higher efficiency in one of the things that mega trends we talk about is electrification electricity is the highest refined energy that we have. and so thermodynamically, we can

get a lot of benefits as we go to evs compared to internal combustible engines. we think longer term does this delay things a little bit? it could i think tesla is probably in a really good position because they're not subsidy dependent. that could be a risk on some of the smaller companies like what you talked about rivian reporting after the close tonight. >> yeah, kind of focus in on that point a little bit. so they're not as subsidy dependent. is that because you believe the subsidies are going to be in jeopardy across the world? >> well, we're at a historic low in terms of defense spending all around so globally, i think we're 6%, 7% so whether we go the hot war ends quickly, we're going to go into some type of cold war type scenario which defense spending is likely to increase. so the question is, where does that money come from and what's at risk in terms of

what could be pulled away. so i always get a little squirrely if an investment thesis is baked on a subsidy, because then you're at the whims of a politician, so you want that vulnerable point in the s-curve for any new technology is getting through if there are subsidies where you don't have to depend on them. so tesla has made it over that rubicon, and i think that serves them well. we also have another name, wolfspeed, which makes all of these companies more efficient and isn't subsidy based at all those are our two longer term, that's what we like to focus on. >> what about some of the other stocks that you cover and that you like here, jed, on the fact that this does remind us of the dependence on fossil fuels and as the biden administration has said, maybe short term we need to ramp up oil production, but long term, we need to get into a

cleaner future and away from energy dependence, oil dependence >> sure, we have never reduced, with the exception of maybe whale oil, we have never reduced the energy systems in absolute terms. so we burn more oil and gas today than we did 50 years ago it's just a lower percentage what we have to do is get away from wasting our resources to things that try to defy the laws of physics, like ethanol or some of the biofuels and look at how we can actually move toward systems that we know are going to be our future, ie electrification. and that's why because you're not going to build solar panels with just solar panels we need that oil and gas to make the systems that are going to drive the future and that's why it's so important that we look at moving up that efficiency curve in terms of what we're building so we're not building things, breaking them, and moving away from it.

>> jed, thank you for joining us as we await theserivian results. we appreciate it >> up next, a look at how the recent market correction is making some beaten up blue chip stocks appear cheap. >> plus, treasury secretary janet yellen on what the white house is doing to combat inflation as food and energy prices hit their highest level in more than 40 years. growing up in a little red house, on the edge of a forest in norway, there were three things my family encouraged: kindness, honesty and hard work.

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stocks sending the day lower again. fifth down day in the last six sessions let's go to mike looking at the valuation of one beaten down blue chip stock. >> 3m, a 5-year chart. this was a laggard and had really become cheap. even before the latest market correction how cheap is it? take a look at the forward price earnings multiple over time and see that basically it is at decade lows in terms of that forward valuation. it's one of several of these industrial conglomerates that has not been able to find a constituency also has a 4% dividend yield it's rarely been cheaper there's always good reasons for why investors aren't paying up for it you have the hangover from mask sales coming down.

also litigation risks in there and it's been a dysfunctional multi-industry conglomerate with a restructuring plan that hasn't taken hold the street does not like this stock. usually when you have sour sentiment on a stock with an embedded health carebusiness, it is really more of an exercise of saying where might there be values surfacing in the market after the downturn finally, companies pretsenting t two different industrial conferences next week. >> i'm going thou the product list because it's been a while n-95 has been the major thing, but velcro, adhesive fasteners >> safety products is a big category there actually, it's part of the litigation ear plugs. >> is it a cyclical barometer? >> it's not much of a bellwether for the global economy because they have lots of staple type businesses more like health care and consumer nondurables >> mike, thank you

up next, the ceo of magicleap, which unveiled a new headset for the look for the metaverse and plans to take the company public >> and later, janet yellen on whether the u.s. could impose ev me onicenorecom sanctions on russia over the invasion of ukraine. we'll be right back. i'm greg, i'm 68 years old. i do motivational speaking in addition to the substitute teaching. i honestly feel that that's my calling-- to give back to younger people. i think most adults will start realizing that they don't recall things as quickly as they used to or they don't remember things as vividly as they once did. i've been taking prevagen for about three years now. people say to me periodically, "man, you've got a memory like an elephant." it's really, really helped me tremendously. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

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welcome back time for our rapid recap the february consumer price index jumping 7.9% from a year ago. this as food and energy costs push inflation to levels not seen in more than 40 years meantime, mortgage rates popping again this week to the liest level in nearly two years. the average on the hurt-year fixed is 4.28% a full percent higher than a year ago goldman sachs says it's working to wind down operations in russia making it the first major global investment bank to do so after russia invaded ukraine >> time for a news update with shep smith >> from the news on cnbc, here's what's happening the pentagon is detailing russian losses in the invasion today. a senior official says russia has lost hundreds of vehicles and estimated 15 to 20 planes

and as many as 25 helicopters. but despite that, the current u.s. assessment is that russian forces are still capable of encircling the capital of kyiv in one to two weeks but it would take four to 6 weeks to take the city mask mandates are going away in cities and towns across the country, but not when you're traveling or commuting the white house just extended its mask requirement for all public transportation by one month. it applies to airports, planes, buses, trains, and subways the mandate was set to expire next week. now, it will be in effect through at least april 18th. >> and after a 99-day baseball lockout, it's play ball time almost in the last hour, the players association executive committee and representatives for the players voted to accept the league's latest offer on a new labor deal it's still subject to ratification from the owners and players. if approved, it would pave the way for, get this, a full

162-game season. tonight, a florida state trooper hailed as a hero for a daring move that police say saved dozens if not hundreds of lives. her story in her own words on the news right after cnbc special report, tech shock news time, 7:00 eastern, cnbc. back to you. >> shep, thank you we'll see you then shep smith >> are you celebrating the return of baseball >> i am celebrating inside, abso absolutely i don't understand why this couldn't have been done in december, but glad to have a full season on tap >> yes, you're the number one babel fan in my life let's talk magicleap recently unveiling a new version of its augmented reality headset with a focus on the medical and manufacturing sectors. they reached a $2 billion valuation after raising more than $500 million from existing investors and joining us now is magic leap's ceo, peggy johnson. peggy, it's good to have you magicleap, when i think of it,

its heyday was snchleveral years ago. sale were underwhelming. i believe there were big layoffs announced just after covid you have been brought in to reimagine this company so talk about what the new magic leap looks like, and what's going to be different than the past >> first of all, sara and mike, thanks for having me i would say the big difference is we are 100% focused on ente enterprise, and our next generation device is purpose built for enterprise we're focused on three markets, health care, defense, and manufacturing, because those areas present use cases that can deliver value right now to the industry >> who is the competition? isit something that facebook's oculus is doing, or are they mostly gearing to consumers and gamers >> they are pointed to consumers and that is a virtual reality device where you tend to not see your physical world. we are an augmented reality device where you still see your

physical world, and we intelligently place digital contact in that world, and you can interact with that contact that seems to be what enterprise needs for safety concerns so you're not stumbling over things you're still seeing the room around you >> talk about some of the specific applications and whether in fact it's your sense that industry is explicitly asking for them or if you are just sort of proposing possible ways they can utilize this technology and maybe they will and maybe they won't >> actually, we saw quite a bit of signal even from magic leap 1, when enterprises in those three areas start today build applications even on our first generation device, which was focused more on consumer we took their input, and that was they wanted a larger field of view. for instance, in health care, surgeons don't want to have much body movement while they're operating. you can take the device into the operating room, so they can look down and see digital content placed on the patient.

they can also look up and see the patient's vitals on a virtual screen in front of them. in defense, there's all sorts of training and command and control scenarios that we are building out. and in manufacturing, enabling frontline workers essentially allows them to have a pc on their eyes, still see the factory, and have that digital content perhaps it's a training video, placed inside their field of view. >> it sounds like very cool technology, so peggy, because it's augmented reality, does that mean you're not necessarily focused on the metaverse and the promise that is there that investors are all excited about? >> well, you can think of us as a window into the metaverse, because we do put 3d imagery into your physical world so in some ways yes, we are interrelated in that and you know, the excitement around the term metaverse is actually a great tailwind for

magic leap >> and is it strictly a hardware sale or is there a kind of a subscription piece of it as well >> it is both. it's a platform. so we do build the hardware from the ground up. we proudly manufacture in south florida. then we have a software platform on top of that with a number of features that are exposed to our developers and then applications that sit on top of that and then for this device, we have, as i said, have taken in quite a bit of input from our customers. we doubled the field of view, that's the palette you can put digital content on in front of your eyes. we made it smaller, lighter. the image quality is much clearer. text legibility, color uniformity, overall upgrade in all of the metrics that matter to those industries. >> it's fascinating, peggy thanks a lot for the update. we'll keep an eye on all of it >> perfect thanks for having me

>> peggy johnson from magic leap >> still ahead, treasury secretary janet yellen on whether soaring inflation is increasing the risk of recession. "closing bell" will be right back

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america's ban this week on russian oil. today, russia hitting back, issuing its own retaliatory sanctions and joining us in an exclusive interview is treasury secretary janet yellen secretary yellen, good to see you again. thanks for joining us. >> nice to be with you thanks, sara >> so now that you have had some days to see the impact of the sanctions that you and our allies have put on russia, what is your determination of whether they're working? >> well, i think the sanctions have been devastating in their economic impact. we have all but cut russia off from the international financial system you can see that the ruble is in freefall the stock market is closed stocks that trade in western exchanges have lost the bulk of their value. the export controls that we have put in place will have a

devastating longer medium run effect in depriving russia of the technology that they need to run a modern economy and advance in defense and other areas which will diminish the power that they will have for years to come and you know, russia's war chest, the $600 billion plus of reserves that their central bank had, i believe they hoped would shield them from the consequences of our sanctions and be like a buffer against them and our sanctions on the central bank of russia have succeeded in all but immobilizing the vast majority so russia is experiencing very severe economic consequences i expect there to be a severe

downturn in the russian economy. >> and yet, putin has not backed down and has only intensified this horrific war against ukraine. what more can we do as a country and with our allies? >> well, we continue to support ukraine in its fight against russia in all of the ways that we can we have made clear that we don't intend to become involved militarily, but we are certainly supporting ukraine and we will continue to consider and discuss further sanctions. you know, that will really deprive russia of the resources that they need to conduct war over time. >> like what what hasn't been sanctioned

already? >> so i don't want to give a concrete list of things we're consi considering, but we have put together an international task force that will begin to seize the assets, the yachts and the real estate of oligarchs who have been sanctioned we have put in place and could expand sanctions that make it extremely difficult for russia, its government and its firms to access international capital there's more that we can do, but what we have done has been devastating. >> keep us posted certainly on that there is this idea, though, that russia does have a work around when it comes to china they can buy gold from the central bank, invest in energy companies and buy more oil they could help them get around the s.w.i.f.t. rules and the

banking system i know that you said earlier you haven't necessarily seen any evidence that china is lending support to russia, but if we do, what would secondary sanctions look like? and how tough would that be to pull off given the struggle that it took for the trump administration to put the china tariffs in place >> so as i said, i have not seen evidence that china is providing russia with any significant workaround for our sanctions they do buy russian oil. conceivably, they could buy more but there are limitations on the ability to ship oil to china chinese banks do a lot of business with the west they care very deeply about their relationship with the u.s. and european financial systems and they seem to be very

cautious in their willingness to do business with russia. so conceivably, there could be some partial relief for russia through that channel, but i don't think that anything will happen through china or at least i'm not seeing any evidence of it that would significantly mitigate the crushing burden of what we have done. >> but if you do, would you be prepared to sanction chinese companies, chinese entities? >> i'm not going to leap ahead to what we would be prepared to do i'm not -- i'm not seeing anything happening at this point. and we will track things closely. >> one thing i know you're tracking is the impact on our economy and on inflation in particular got the latest cpi reading today for february, 7.9% and that was before the bulk of the impact was really seen from the war on certain commodities

how much is this crisis exacerbating the inflation problem we already have? >> well, it is exacerbating it i think there's no doubt about it we have seen a very meaningful increase in gas prices and my guess is that next month we'll see a further evidence of an impact on u.s. inflation of putin's war on ukraine you know, russia, in addition to exporting oil, and we have certainly seen meaningful increases in oil prices that are related to russia's invasion and the expectation that it would invade ukraine, so oil ukraine and russia are major producers of wheat we're seeing impacts on food prices and i think that can have a very

severe effect on some very vulnerable emerging market countries. so we'll see something on food, palladium, nickel, other minerals that russia exports could translate into, for example, higher costs of catalytic converters or batteries, so there will be further supply chain issues in the short run. and it will add to u.s. inflation. as well as european inflation. but you know, it's really critical, and i think americans feel strongly and as people all over the world do, that this kind of behavior that violates every international norm of decent behavior, what we're really seeing is an atrocity, and peace-loving democratic

nations need to and are standing up against it. we have designed these sanctions to have the maximum impact on russia while mitigating fulall u for everyone else, including the united states, but it's not realistic to think we can take actions of this magnitude without feeling some consequences ourselves >> already had been happening and is happening in the u.s. when it comes to rising prices from everything from wages to rents to food prices i think your expectation previously is that inflation would calm down in the second half of this year to normal levels have you revised those expectations where do you think we'll be at the end of the year? >> so i think there's a lot of uncertainty that is related to what's going on with russia and ukraine. and i do think that it's exacerbating inflation i don't want to make a

prediction exactly as to what's going to happen in the second half of the year you know, we're likely to see another year in which 12-month inflation numbers remain very uncomfortably high you know, the federal reserve is looking very carefully at this they have indicated that they intend to take actions to bring inflation down and i have confidence in their ability to make a meaningful difference going forward >> and now we have new global growth concerns. especially spillover effects on europe and a potential slowdown in the economy there so how do we, the u.s., escape stagflation or worse, recession? >> so, you know, we have a good strong economy and when we had january, february months in which employment growth has been

exceptionally strong, even this morning's report on unemployment insurance claims, they remain very low we have got a good strong labor market many, many job openings. households in good financial shape. we're celebrating this week the one-year anniversary of the american rescue plan and you know, this is a piece of legislation that served to bring unemployment down and provoke the strongest growth we have had in 40 years. and we have got a good strong economy with an excellent outlook for the labor market and real activity going forward. inflation is a problem, and it's one that we need to address, but i don't expect a recession in

the united states. >> stagflation is that a realistic possibility? >> well, stagflation usually means high inflation combined with a weak economy. and i think that means high inflation with limp economy. i think the labor market will remain strong. i think the federal reserve first has made clear they intend to remove some monetary policy accommodation. which is appropriate with an economy with a labor market that is as strong as ours that's still growing above trend and with inflation well above anything that corresponds to price stability. so i think it's appropriate for them to take action but a soft landing is what i expect and historically we have seen tightening cycles characterized by soft landings. >> and finally, before we let you go, we're just getting word in the last few minutes here

that your department is preparing to sanction north korea over recent long range miss the test escalation there, anything you can tell us about what that is going to look like and whether sanction against north korea even work at this point. >> i don't have anything for you on that, will just have to wait and see if there's a statement. >> we will do that, secretary yellen, thank you so much for your time today. >> thank you pleasure to be with you. >> treasury secretary janet yellen doesn't expect a recession, thinks we're on solid ground on the economy, fed is prepared to act on inflation but pinning the exacerbated inflation on putin which they can do. >> it's $30 in the price of oil from before it started yes. starting with a silver lining in terms of employment.

shares of rivian slipping after reporting just a few moments ago. up next we'll dig in what is driving that stock lower now you're talking. no wonder ameriprise financial has been named the #1 most trusted wealth manager. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about.

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after-hours, phil lebeau with the details. >> they're getting hit hard, there's little to like about the q4 report, a miss on the top and bottom line with loss of 243 a share. the company has 83,000 reservation increased from 71,000 in december but only produced a little over 1,000 vehicles delivering 920 all of 2021, basically in line with their previous guidance. when you look at 2022 they say they're going to have the capacity to build 50,000 vehicles this year but only expect to build 25,000, why? the supply chain they are blaming that on the lower-than-expected production, lower than some people were expecting, as for '22 expecting ebitda loss $4.75 billion, capex $2.6 billion ended the quarter $18.4 billion, we're going to jump on the conference call see what rj has to say, not a good report from rivian >> phil lebeau, thank you very

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tomorrow, it's another week that's been dominated by concerns over high commodity prices, inflation, what the fed is going to be able to do hike interest rates next week, going into a tough period global growth estimates are coming down had a chance today to talk to treasury secretary janet yellen and imf manager on the front lines, the biggest take away for me are just how much russia is suffering in terms of its economy and the devastation there and this whole notion that china will come bail them out. both of them said there's no evidence of that imf went a step further saying in fact she expects china to pressure russia to back off when it comes to the war and secretary yellen didn't even go there on secondary sanction and said that's not what we're seeing. >> it's an uncomfortable spot because you have to wait to see if the sanction cause enough pain to change behaviors for the markets, economy, citizens, tough place to be. >> the new word is going to be soft landing

secretary yellen expects it. can the fed pull it off. >> every cycle they try for it, get there many times. >> that's going to do it for tonight on "closing bell." have a good evening. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite in time square, this is "fast money", i'm melissa lee, tonight's trader lineup dan nathan, tim seymour, karen finerman and guy adami joining in a few, ahead on fast, beijing firing back, chinese companies could face devastating actions if they defy russian sanctions today china said it will respond firmly and forcefully if the u.s. does that how worried do investors need to be about this red-hot rhetoric plus, grim new numbers on where we are not shoppingful for picture doesn't look pretty for best buy, home depot, kohl's and bed bath and beyond. and on the options market 20 to 1 split could make amazon a blockbuster.