baseball is back with some real notable changes it is finally happening. designated hitter in the national league. a lot of money behind that game on this friday, march 11th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live at the nasdaq market center in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and melissa lee. becky is off this morning. we will talk about china in just a second and what is happening in asia. s&p is up 18 points. dow up 119 points. treasury yields. the ten-year note stands sat

1.983. last night, the senate passed a $1.5 trillion bill to keep the government orunning an send ateid to ukraine. now to the latest in ukraine, authorities say more cities have been targeted by russian air strikes in the western part of the country. satellite images show the russian convoy outside of kyiv has been redeployed on the out skirts ten miles from the city center analysts say that could be a precursor for a ground assault on the capital we are watching the hong kong shares of the listed companies. fell sharply overnight after fears of potential de-listing in the united states.

we have eunice yoon with more now. >> reporter: joe, chinese and hong kong shares rebounded it all started out as a brutal day. especially for shares for chinese companies. this is after the s.e.c. named five u.s. listed firms that could be de-listed if they don't provide enough information and access to awudit documents they responded bay eijing is looking fordward maintaining trading on the new york stock exchange. hutchmed is evaluating options and yum china said it may have to de-list from the nysc in early 2024

the s.e.c. announcement renewed fears that more chinese companies in the u.s. will have to follow suit the s.e.c. in december had identified a total of 273 companies that were as risk. this is a long battle where the u.s. has been wanting to see the books of the chinese companies listed in the u.s. china, though, bars foreign inspections of local accounting firms. the chinese regulator said it was confident some agreement could be reached did not necessarily calm investors down in the united states today, on its social media account, the csrc said it made positive progress with the u.s. counterparts what boosted sentiment is the media report that talks were moving relatively smoothly and a consensus would be reached soon. sentiment, though, pretty

fragile for a couple of reasons. one, we had news on didi global. reports now that didi has to suspend or already deciding to suspend the hong kong plan because it did not meet the demands for the cybersecurity review then also the fact that norway's sovereign wealth fund was excluding the sportswear company from china it raised concerns that foreign investors will look a little more closely at the chinese companies as they review and consider their esg guys >> so many bells and whistles and things to talk about globalization, a, i would assign this article to someone if you were an editor the dream of globalization is almost gone at this point. we have russia and now worried

about china who has to choose sides. they are walking a fine line with the west and russia we could eventually be unhappy with chinese companies then you've got this so many things working against the notion that we're all in this together now. it is not good long-term, for global growth. we have our own problems global inflation >> reporter: yeah. the chinese are very concerned about decoupling and concerned about the sanctions and potential that the tensions with the u.s. and europe and china really could create for the overall economy. in fact, we heard that as one of the main themes from the chinese premier who met the press today at the end of the national people's congress, the big gathering here he said these sanctions are something that could really roil the global economy joe, that highlighted what is a

huge concern for the chinese that is all of the disruption we're seeing in the global economy because of ukraine and russia could potentially undermine china's effort to try to stabilize its own economy before the special event that you and i talk about a lot that is at the end of the year xi jinping taking another term potentially. stability is really important here right now. >> eunice, could you see a moment where the chinese actually decouple from russia insofar as they would be concerned about secondary sanctions on them when it comes to buying oil and the like from russia is that possible >> reporter: i think it could be possible, but that is something that is a really high bar because that's what i think.

just because of the chinese still at this point we're seeing that they believe that having the relationship with putin is beneficial for them long term because they are long-term thinkers the ideal is for them to not necessarily have the current global order led by the west having a partner like president putin is beneficial in that way. it would really have to cross a very high bar for them to decouple from russia >> they have to rethink this >> reporter: i think if they had to, they would throw russia under the bus sg >> he's a great guy. who is now saying after bombing a maternity hospital, who on the planet is saying we're on his side nobody if there were plans for taiwan reunification, i think those are on hold. they see what sanctions look like at this point. >> what is the press like in china right now, eunice?

what are the people on the street hear about what is happening in russia? >> reporter: well with, that's actually different from what is in state media state media -- no, in social media which is more pro-russia you see the censors are coming in and giving people what they feel they need to hear anti-west and anti-u.s. in particular and the conspiracy theories as we talked about yesterday with the bio-labs and all of this blame put on the u.s. for creating this problem in ukraine is mainly what people are hearing. not everybody believes it. >> the answer is possibly billions of people told because they are being fed a story >> thank god that can never happen here.

>> he says sarcastically >> right eunice yoon, we need to talk more hopefully we will. coming up, a lot more on this and everything else going gasoline prices continuing to march higher we'll talk to the former goldman sachs analyst who made the $200 oil call back in 2008. that's next. and an update on the pandemic albert borla of pfizer is joining us are you watching us live from the cnbc office in times square. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision.

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stocks to watch. shares of rivian falling reported a bigger loss for the fourth quarter as they deal with supply chain issues. the company will deliver 25,000 vehicles this year compared with the estimate of 40,000 huge cut there docusign shares plummeting the guidance for the april quarter is disappointing the street it is the second straight quarter the weak guidance sent the stock lower. down 20% this morning. and gas prices reaching a record high. aaa national average isup to

$4.33 per begallon as oil prices retreat. joining us now is arjun. he made the call for oil between $150 and $200 back in 2008 good morning to you. help us understand what will happen now what do you think? >> the first part of the call worked okay when we got above 100. now 150 to 200 now we will see if we are headed back to the environment. we have low spare capacity supply is struggling demand is recovered. a lot of people are using the super sonic moniker. i use the phrase super vol it is more like the 1970s where politics and turmoil will create a spiky environment and one that goes in both directions.

it is a tricky environment to navigate in the oil sector >> and how high do you think this goes at this point? do you think it is possible things turn around >> i think that is part of the point. the 2000 cycle was characterize by china joining the wto and limited supply you have geopolitics playing a bigger role now. hard to know how russia plays out. 7 million barrels a day. that is not oil that anyone can make up on a short-term basis. who knows what happens in a war situation. on the other hand, if god willing, the situation eases, that's the environment for prices pulling back. that mind set of super volatility environment where you go in both directions, frankly, is something that i think markets and people should be prepared for >> in terms of the transition to ev, arjun, if you forecast

higher oil prices are spiky and not consistent, is that transition hastened because we see the prices ebb and flow? >> i think the spiking environment is better for the transition to evs. it is uncertain of how high prices will go and how we see it to keep it in the news the work i did at goldman sachs 10 or 15 years ago highlighted they both need rate of change in an absolute level to motivate fuel economy games or ev games when you have an inherent uncertainty, it keeps it in the news flow and on channels and others that motivates people to shift i'm personally ev. i love driving an ev these transitions take longer than the market expects. it is one that probably would be

one of the silver linings of a higher price environment if you speed up that transition we are talking many decades. the transition with oil demand is the fuel economy is limited consumers are continuing to drive more suvs. that eliminates the bulk of the fuel economy gains that many people are bear itch is fuel economy gains that many people are bear itc in the forecast if we are in the area where gas was above $4 a gallon for a short period of time, do you see a shift? >> arjun -- in terms of more drilling and we've seen a shift in the past week as evidence by the thing we have seen by elon musk on twitter around esg and the like, do you see a market shift in the world in terms of how the investors are going to value and think about additional drilling by some of the majors

or others? >> we are coming off a five and ten-year period where the energy sector is zero return on capital. traditional investors say stop wasting money. i want dividends the question is the war environment and the high oil prices, do you see the shift in change from the administration to encourage drilling? there are energy resources in the world. we are blessed with a lot of oil in north america and canada. there are constraints. we have a chance to recover going forward. it would be nice to have some relief and uncertainty it would be nice to have relief in terms of other regulations out there. there will be a mixture of needed regulatory enabling and as price goes or stay higher, you will see some of the spigots

loosen it is more an uncertainty environment. if you don't know if the oil price is 150 or 50, that is not wanting to you drill more. >> okay. we will leave it there arjun, i appreciate it thanks. coming up, baseball is back. we will run through the changes to the game and the money behind it later, we talk cryptocurrency with kevin o'leary. bitcoin down 1.5%. "squawk box" is back in a moment live from times square as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship

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baseball is back

owners and players union reached a deal to bring spring training and opening day is april 7th the deal ends the 99-day lockout. extending the season by three days and adding multiple double headers on the schedule. they had to make up for lost games. salaries increased and expanded to 12 teams. jersey sponsorship patches allowed opening up a revenue stream the national league will adopt the designated hitter rule pitchers will no longer have to hit. several changes adopted next season a pitcher's clock and limits to the defensive shifts which you see the entire right or left side of the field covered for a hitter that pulls or doesn't pull he gets out every time the offense. some people think that hurts that is not allowed. both moves are aimed to improve

game action and cut down on the duration of games. we didn't make 50 years since the american league adopted the designated hitter. we would have next year. 1 1973 i was a reds fan i thought the manager had to do more thinking. the pitcher is coming up do i pinch hit you put a big brute in there and no fielding ability whatsoever why are we doing that? after 50 years, you know, we play american league teams all the time you are in there ballpark, you have the dh. you are home, your pitcher has to hit it is time i guess to make that change. when it was adopted and i didn't know this. they said it was the biggest rule change since foul balls were ruled to be strikes >> really? >> there was a time where foul

balls were, i guess, not ruled to be strikes. that was a big rule change don't say that >> is this a much higher scoring game this way? >> we go back to not doing the seven-inning double headers and not back to putting a guy on second in extra inning games they want to make them quicker with the pitcher on the clock. we are going back to a 16-inning game or 17-inning game a guy at second in extra innings, you get scores quickly. i don't know if you noticed that it is all good it is all good i was wondering how -- >> how does this change the betting game >> good question it changes it that we will now be able to bet on baseball since there will be a season >> that should be good for draftkings

>> i'm not a good person for draftkings i do okay. i break even i kind of break even i had the same $150. i finally had to replenish it. it had been a year. >> you stay on the platform and you don't leave? you're a good customer they have to spend a lot of money to get new people in >> they do >> that is what the game is. promotional. >> i got the same money. i'm not putting money in, they're not getting any. >> they talk to inn vvestors sa they have active bettors and you are one of them. >> you cannot believe what is going on today uconn. villanova. indiana and illinois at 11:30. i have one in there to make sure let's get you caught up with the futures. we noticed that they took a big move higher. vladimir putin making comments

dow up 450 points. s&p higher by 63 nasdaq is looking to gain 218 at the open putin said there are certain positive shifts in the talks with ukraine we'll bring you more as we have them that was enough to turn the futures around any sniff of progress in this war. >> putin says that we believe it? i don't know what to think >> looking and listening to lavrov yesterday and what was coming out of his mouth. it comes directly from putin is he looking for an exit ramp has he fired generals? is it not going well >> it is taking much longer than bloodier than anticipated. >> zelenskyy would say take this on the east here and we won't go into nato. would putin accept that? that would be a way. is it okay for us to say all

right. >> he's got -- you have to let him feel like he is winning. he has to say he won to his people and the world >> look at the yield sm spiking up 2% on the ten-year note in light of the comments. the next step is if we hear any sniff of a one-on-one meeting with zelenskyy and putin because they said in the past that any progress would have to be made or deal made leader to leader as opposed through spokes people or ministers. >> we have this notion it is only a matter of time. when people say ukraine can actually win do we think that is possible they could last long enough to where he retreats without getting anything i don't think so he's got so much ability to keep ramping things up, does he not anything like this would be good >> look at gold, by the way. gold is falling >> it is

from near all-time highs >> on the back of this gold is down .70%. >> someone believes it at 6:28 in the morning we will see. >> easy to push things around. >> if we translated it right coming up, fallout from russia's invasion of ukraine for the markets. what happens to bond holders if russia defaults? leslie picker explains next. and as we head to break, here is a look at the s&p 500 winners and losers >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business keeping your business connected. but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live at the nasdaq market site in times square. if you are waking up, futures taking a big leg higher a few

minutes ago after the comment from vladimir putin was released saying there are quote certain positive shifts in the talks with ukraine folks seem to be believing him right now. dow up 422 points. nasdaq up 16 points. let's show you crude prices. those are moving as well this morning. you are looking at wti at $108.30. the ten-year notore right now is sitting at 2.007 and then we will show you gold and bitcoin. gold at $1,000 -- or $1,986. we should show you what is going on in ukraine. things moving higher across the board. france and germany in the indexes up close to 3% germany more than 3%

sticking with the fallout from the russian invasion of ukraine. leslie picker is looking at the potential default and what would happen to bond holders >> reporter: good morning, melissa. the prospect of the first default in more than a century sent yields soaring as they weigh the likelihood the country is unable to pay interest owed next week due to sanctions bond funds with russian exposure are seeing out flowing marked down as the result of the sell off in prices. the market funds with the highest percentage in russian debt are voya and pimco and american morning funds pimco with $1.5 billion of russian bonds at the end of 2021 and about $1 billion of contracts that pimco needs to pay out to other investors if russia defaults. losses on securities particularly in pimco income fund caused it to slip 5% this

year under performing the benchmark where it was out performing the benchmark. i'm told that the firm had long-term exposure to russia and the strategy was not tactical in nature it represents the under management pimco managers have limited exposure to russian bonds. russia has $40 billion of dollar/euro debt. it is unclear what rights, if any, bond holders have to recover investments. guys >> leslie, do you know if russian bonds are included in emerging bond market indices the exposure, although small, would be broad on the notion that funds are indexed to that bond index >> reporter: absolutely. russia has been a participant in

those indexes as well. the exposure, the active mutual funds focus on bonds and also index. they have been coming together wondering what it means for them as well. there is clearly exposure, but not to the level i think would provide any usystemic risk. there is a smaller piece of whether it is an index fund or mutual fund. people are not concerned about major contagion as in 1985 there are other concerns, but with sovereign bonds with potential for default, no one expects major blowups. >> leslie, thank you leslie picker. >> interesting putin is a kgb guy former kgb he has access to what people are

saying about him around the world. the russian people don't he knows if he ever intends to be on the world stage again and sees what the perception of the entire globe is for what he is doing, is it possible he has second thoughts about civilian casualties don't you have to be a sociopath to sort of allow that or actually designate civilian areas for strafing and bombing >> do you think he can on the world stage at this point? >> if he were to somehow say, okay, i'm magnanimous and genocide on russians in the breakaway regions. if i get those and feel good about the security, we didn't try it with the hospital if he goes all the way, he never can. >> what does he have to lose at

this point >> i just think that -- >> there is no turning back, right, which is what you are saying, right? >> maybe in his mind -- >> maybe he is willing to cut his losses >> let's say he makes a deal you think he can show up at some g7 meeting will he have a meeting at the white house with the president at the world economic forum? >> can he attract foreign investment dollars again can companies, u.s. and allies, operate in russia or has he somehow permanently shut that off? at least for a period of time. >> mcdonald's, coca-cola or starbucks? >> i think that is a big question >> you would in a year or two. >> yeah. in the meantime, think of the isolation that russia faces. >> right >> if he goes all the way, he won't. the question is would you in a

year or two? >> maybe like i said, it is not even close, the saudi situation suddenly we totally forgot about that begging them we are running out of time fascinating story. nbc news wrote about goldman sachs. did you see this goldman sachs says they are getting out of russia. yet, apparently they are still selling lots of russian debt in the secondary market. the question is if they should being or not >> acting as a market maker, but they don't take positions. >> the article raised the issue of who is the actual seller of this stuff the pension fund or sovereign wealth fund selling down russian debt maybe that's fine. because you don't know who the sellers really are in certain cases, you know, are they oligarchs or other russians

trying to get rid of debt and doing it through other means the goldman sachs, i should say, in the article states they have measures in place to make sure they are not doing business with those sanctioned it is interesting. it hit me when you were talking about starbucks and others getting out. goldman sachs is getting out, but clearly working with some of this stuff >> it reminds me of lloyd in front of the senate. scratching his head. didn't understand. market makers. it sounds like that same thing here we go again the other point i was making oligarchs are like vlad, man, my yacht! can we think about this? let's -- there has to be a lot of people that are pressuring him at this point, i would think. >> the oligarchs who have huge stakes in companies or russian assets that are now worth

pennies. >> most of them don't live in russia anymore. >> if he cares about mother russia, then he won't care about world opinion. some of it is maybe this is the beginning of something that is not as terrible as the worst-case scenario we all thought about. maybe in my dreams scary time coming up, a check up on cryptocurrency with shark tank's kevin o'hleary. the "squawk" coin is next. we never did make one. we still might later, don't miss our inn it afte interview with pfizer ceo albert borla. the possibility of a fourth shot maybe we will talk about b.a.2 and much more.

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time for a little squawk coin bitcoin rising in the last few minutes after putin's comments oppn positive talks with ukrain. joining us now is entrepreneur kevin o'leary. who knows why it moves and when it moves and what is behind it the eo, the executive order,

k kevin, to me it is like kick it down the road and say good things it did seem to acknowledge that the crypto is here to stay and we don't want to kill it we want to, maybe, in some way help with the innovation not stand in the way of the innovation in the country. how did you read it? >> i read it that way, joe there is a huge land mine in that order for bitcoin miners. let me give you the string and join the dots to realize this is bad news down deep in the order is the discussion about climate that is a shot at bitcoin mining bitcoin mining facilities in this country many years ago. it was built on data centers these use power. they need power between 1 and 4 cents a kilowatt hour. many across the country.

for a long time, it is the two funds that were not allowed to own bitcoin and buy through the proxy of the shares of the public mining companies. look at the stock of marathon and any of the public companies and they get indexed into the pool of capital, they are in relation to price bitcoin. the problem is if all of a sudden, this is public policy and also merged with private policy in the same way capital is redirected away from the oil and gas industry what this bill is saying we will consider climate in cryptocurrencies now, that's really bad news because all of the bitcoin miners use carbon credits to offset the so-called use of carbon everybody knows that you can't audit this larry fink and blackrock is saying we want audits.

it will be obvious these companies cannot cut it. they cannot prove they are not using carbon bad ews. when i read that order, and our positions, we sold our stock what will happen, there is no way to make the airline industry green, but all of the new capital going into the bitcoin mining facilities will go on hydro. upstate new york a fiacility built a year ago the policy got unstable and invest ors moved the facility to norway it is the first giant bitcoin mining facility that is carbon neutral. including the network awards that move from china and everywhere else. these are clean coins. the largest shareholder? sovereign wealth we chased that out of america. we pushed that away. we need policy now that lets capital -- these are expensive

you build a data center like this, you need a state like montana and hydro and you need $300 million or $400 million. >> kevin, there is an argument and jack dorsey made it that bitcoin and cryptocurrency and the way it is mined will help foster a greener world insofar as they will help develop new technologies to create energy and finance it through mining. >> i agree 100% agree there is no way to make it green according to the climate change mandate and all this push to esd and then audit of esg. you can't prove in the data center that you are completely carbon neutral with carbon offsets. what do you say to the investors who put billions in bitcoin offsets? no insurtitution will want to

invest this is a combination of public and private policy with the biden order shot over the bow of the data centers saying we will check you out for sustainability it will be ugly. all i'm saying is as an investor, anybody telling you bitcoin mining they are using carbon offsets avoid them like the plague capital will move to ones sustainable and in states like upstate new york if they get their stuff together or what is happening in norway. the esg is here to stay and the world is moving quickly. >> that is the question i would have for you there are some people that think there's been a little bit of entrenchment with germany and what prompted and emboldened putin and looking at what happened to the fossil fuel industry in the country. the pendulum is coming back the other way and knowing the transition will be 30 or 40 or 50 years and we can't do it

alone. india and china are not cutting back on anything you are coming up with this right after i think we've turned the corner on the whole hysteria and there's some questions about that executive order at the beginning of the biden presidency biden presidency just aboutmaking climate change one of the priorities of the administration you saw that on january 27th now they're kind of denying they even said any of those things. oh, no, no, we want to produce fossil fuels when he has stated in the past we don't want to produce fossil fuel. we might be coming back for rationality. >> maybe there is, but in industries where you're just never going to be carbon neutral that would be the airline industry and -- >> esg, there's been no lessening of that train, that momentum train >> no. in industries where you can have an alternative, in other words, if you build a bitcoin mine beside a turbine with water, so

there's an alternative for that. but in the airline industry or the oil and gas industry, they're never going to be carbon neutral. i think that's where you're going and probably right you have to admit they'll never be carbon neutral. institution capital will always take the alternative where they're not going to get audited for carbon, and that's going to be bad news for existing bitcoin minors those stocks i think have to be sold >> i don't know where you are in crypto you were so negative for a while, and like you always are you may know nothing but then you got totally positive do you own bitcoin now >> i do. >> you do. have you sold parts of it? you have a lot of it >> look, bitcoin not a coin, joe. it's simply software if you own microsoft, if you own

google, why don't you own bitcoin? it's all software. >> you own one bitcoin that's a real position in it because you're a wealthy guy >> i have millions of dollars, 20% of my portfolio is now in crypto currencies and block chain. >> hey, kevin, i was on the phone yesterday with a sort of big time crypto guy, and he was talking about how crypto was multiple operating systems for mobile telephones years ago. but it made me think maybe that means we're in the beginning of something which is fabulous, but it also makes me think of palms or rim, which a black. berry. you can go down the list ios or android didn't show up to the scene until decades. whether it means bitcoins or some of the coins we're looking at now and talking about will be around or beobsolete in a

decade from now. >> well, you have to be diversified. i own 32 different positions and i have to disclose i'm a paid spokesperson for that company. i'm backing their initiative but the whole point is you don't know who's going to win. is it helium or is it avalanche s , i own them all if you graduate from m.i.t. right now you don't want to work for an old industrial company. you want to go to a block chain company. right now is world is waiting. the canadians are more advanced. they have the very first crypto exchange, the very first etf with bitcoin in it how come we don't? we are so far behind in this policy that's going to lead the world in financial services, we've got to get going there is a bill. i went up to the senate last

thursday met with senator loom s and bipartisan senators but we've got to get going on this thing. let's put this thing together. >> i in fact do not have millions of dollars. i want to disclose that. thank you, kevin kevin o'leary, thanks. coming up futures popping in just the last 25 minutes or so after a comment from vladimir putin on ukraine we'll talk about the strategy after the break here airlines up meantime, also declines in gold, higher torrentialry yldies. we'll continue to monitor the reaction of the markets when "squawk box" returns

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futures are ticking higher here after vladimir putin made a comment there are, quote,

certain positive shifts in talks with ukraine we've got the dow up 358 points right now. we backed off some of the initial reaction on the back of the head leans looking to post a 51% gain at the open nasdaq higher about 200 points joining us now kerry firestone great to see you we have one comment from putin we're still trying to get a bit more detail in what context this comment was made and we see the markets up higher this tells you what a hair trigger the market is operating on right now >> yeah, hi melissa. nice to see you, too i think we saw something over the last few days, which is very instrumental in thinking for the markets. on wednesday there were some news, rumor of peace talks going well and market shot up 200% yesterday turned out those peace talks were maybe off

the market was off less than 2%. it suggests to us there may be more buyers than sellers, the market may be at the point of being oversold when you have the s&p down 11% and the s&p down 20% good news is hitting the tape pretty fast because buyers are out there waiting to step in >> what areas in your view are particularly oversold, karen, because we've seen the sort of bear market taking place way before the russia-ukraine conflict particularly in sectors like high growth stocks innovation names. >> sure. well, there are names across the board that are attractive. there are hundreds of stocks now that are down, you know, 40 to 80% across both the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq. but if you look at the higher growth names, technology and biotech, i ran a screen yesterday of those names and of those of $5 billion in market

cap or higher that are down 45% or more from their 12-month high, that list had about 50 names. and, you know, looking across the board you can see adobe, autodesk, paypal as an example d docu sign, robin hood in an environment which has no severe recession those stocks should do very well and we were still assume we don't have a recession next year, that we have very low unemployment, there's a lot of strong demand, consumer demand, industrial demand and that when you're looking for growth, and that growth has come into attractive levels, you know, down at the levels where you can buy stocks for 20 times earnings that have, you know, really strong cash flow growth above that we think this is an

opportunity and events like invasion of course are terrible humanitarily and our job is to look for opportunities in the market ma. >> we may not hit a recession in the market here but europe looks like it is on the road to that when you're thinking about screens of these companies and revenue growth, if you're thinking mentally the european revenue growth should be sort of discounted at this point >> i think that's a very good point which is why some of the names we own like charter communications, o'reilly auto, waste connection, those are basically u.s. centric companies, and their growth will continue with inflation hedges and steady, strong growth. the defense sector has been really hurt over the past couple of years we don't have a defense bill that's been passed in this

administration hamilton was a stock that was a real poor performer last year as were many of the defense names and we consider that a very interesting stock right now. >> thank you so much great to see you, karen firestone. it is just after 7:00 on the east coast, and you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and melissa lee this morning becky is off putin was quoted as saying there had been some progress in talks with ukraine dow up about 373 points, nasdaq up about 200 points, s&p 500 up about 52 points. straight over to dom chu wloz been looking at what is move on this news for moskow this morning. >> a stock surge in the premarket, and the whole market is moving along some of those headlines, but moderating just a

bit as some now chatter comes out about whether or not the ukrainians feel similarly about some of those putin comments and the headlines coming out you've got the russian side of things saying there may be a positive tilt. now we're waiting for it ukrainian sign to see if there's that same sentiment. if you look at the s&p futures right before those headlines came out, you were here. the move to the session highs were just about we'll call it 62, 63 points from just before those headlines to where they were at the highs. you can see moderating a bit here we're up about 40 points from where we were to give you where trading is so far in reaction to those headlines. the safe haven trades and ones have been working well because of the crisis in ukraine have reversed course a little bit here i'll point out to what's happening in the u.s. government bond market. we see yields starting to rise a little bit as bond prices fall

you can see some of those particular moves in those safe haven trades we're kind of evening out a little bit here. i'd also point out gold prices were roughly $1,995 per ounce just before those headlines came out. and 1,973 off those session lows and some of the stocks indicative of perhaps what we've seen with regard to this conflict between russia and ukraine, some of the oil and gas stocks are now falling along with oil prices. now, they're not negative just yet. however, what we are seeing is a move lower in energy stocks like petroleum, united airlines and carnival some of

the names kwcatching here on the relief rally citi group has been identified throughout the course of the last couple of weeks as one of the stocks who had the most exposure possibly to russian financial markets. so citi group shares up about 1.5% again, joe, indicative, andrew, indicative melissa of what's happening now with the premarket trade. >> you could say thank you, and we can thank melissa together and dom together >> thanks to everybody >> isn't it implied? don't you know we have to thank you? >> yeah, because this is a hard duty it's work to be here >> i saw you saying up and at emthis morning >> can you really read emotion through just words on a screen >> could be sarcastic.

let's talk more about these words from putin and what they might mean to our russian whisperers, steve liesman. steve, you lived in russia let's talk about tat i've been to budapest. i've seen the weird soviet buildings juxtaposed next to this beautiful architecture. that's as close as i get to having any feel for what happens there. how long were you there? you were there a while as moskow wsj bureau chief, right? >> i was there for six years, joe. >> okay. you're it. you are our resource, and it's now suddenly aren't you really glad you did that since you're like the grand poobah, able to talk about this stuff now. >> i was glad i did it for a lot of reasons and guess one of them is to be here now. you've got to be skeptical putin's comments are really nebulous certain comments.

i'm looking at the situation here and i can see some reasons why putin might move here. you look at the war is not going well that seems to be the general consensus of the experts out there. you're starting to see and i think one of the most important things is what are average russians being told? there's been some leaks in all that where there's been some reporting on the war, critical reporting on the war on state tv that's one issue there as well obviously the sanctions are out there. and it's not just the sanctions, it's the apeerps right now that china is not cooping with russia there's a report yesterday china is not sending airline parts there and the idea that on the ukraine side, look, he's just bombing cities, putin. and i think there's reason so there's a reason for both sides to move. i think he violates it anyway he

likes. who's going to enforce that agreement that they have he's got some? sentive to come to the table, some incentive to make a deal with ukraine because any time he wants he can just -- >> so many things pop into my head we can never forget he was a spy. we can never forget the umbrella poisonings and the leaders -- we saw what happened when they were poisoned and maybe you can say it wasn't putin, but i think it's pretty -- >> no, you can't say that, joe you can't say it wasn't putin. it was putin >> well, okay. when someone said i looked into his soul and saw a good man, i think only w could have come up with that. >> he's a stone-cold killer, putin. >> so that's the first thing we need to understand and we need the think his self-interest. it took him a long time.

he's 69 years old. would he be content not to get the whole shine aobject that he has his eyes set onto reconstitute mother russia would he be content to take the eastern break away regions and then wait another four, five years? he's going to be 75 years old by then >> i think he has to work within the context that's possible for him. the big mistake here i think was his notion that the ukrainians were going to welcome them with open arms. the fact they haven't changes the calculus there on the ground you are not going to mollify or otherwise pacify a hostile population with 150,000 or 200,000 troops, whatever the invading force is. now it looks down the road at what it would cost him to get ukraine, i think he's thinking about certain backups here, getting those eastern regions, maybe even a piece of the south wile he's at it and creating

some agreement where ukraine says we will not become part of nato he can probably declare some form of victory with that. and i guess that the sanctions are having some impact on him where it's maybe moved him a little closer to negotiations. i've got to say i'm skeptical of this right now if you remember yesterday there were the talks yesterday between ukrainian and russian foreign minister in turkey there was a little bit of hope going into that on wednesday and they all walked away, no cease-fire discussed it didn't sound like there was any progress from that meeting perhaps there wasn't >> i think the notion putin can make some sort of agreement violate it at any time, it sort of underscores the notion there could be quote-unquote peace reached. but how americans feel the impact or how the globe feels the impact of the war whether it be commodity prices or shortages or what not could be longer

lasting beyond any peace agreement if we're to maintain any sort of leverage over putin in terms of sticking to that agreement. sanctions could remain in place beyond a peace agreement, and that complicates the fed's outlook. >> i think that's an excellent point. and i'll come back to the fed in a second but the sanctions were put in place, and it's pretty remarkable the sanctions that were put in place. nothing like this has ever happened in terms of the western developed world coming together to sanction a major country like russia the trouble with the sanctions is there's no graduation to them in terms of if you do this, then they'll do that. they're just in place. they hit the red button on financial integration. maybe it's like one of those buttons on an electrical grid. you bring it down and you shut a it off, and that's what happened with russia. there's no issue how you bring it back, there's no strategic element to the backside of these

sanctions here so you're right, melissa when i think through what it would take to bring russia back into the fold, back into the global community, it's very hard to think of that happening with putin at the helm of it. it's hard to think about that happening with the system in russia because what we saw with this invasion of ukraine is the system in russia lacks any checks and balances. when you think about the power centers inside russia the church is one of them, the military is one of them, the oligarchs are one of them. and i think we've completely misunderstood the oligarchs because my opinion is that power flows from putin down to the oligarchs. it does not come up from the oligarchs to putin so sanctioning the oligarchs probably the right thing to do politically, morally but i think the effect of that is almost nil. >> hey, steve. peter is out with a note this morning, headlineis china finally telling putin enough already? and the question i ask is

whether you think that is happening behind the scenes here in some way and whether you think and there should be sanctions put on china to pressure putin if they're not doing that >> you remember my story yesterday, andrew, which i was very surprised i called around, talked to some administration officials it looks like at least major commercial chinese firms are following the sanctions even though their country has not formally signed onto them. and this is pretty normal because the chinese companies are concerned about getting sanctioned or -- through secondary sanctions. secondary sanctions don't formally exist the u.s. reserves the right to place them on countries that do business with a country we don't want them doing business with. so chinese companies have acted in a way they're essentially

subjected to the sanctions you saw that yesterday there was a report that chinese companies will not send airplane parts to russia now, there's an opposite report this morning from a russian government official that i don't know that i believe. but in any event china has been a surprise, i think to putin it's been a bit of a surprise to us and i think what we've learned is that that red button i've talked about that disconnects a country from the -- from the global financial system is very powerful the u.s. remains powerful especially when it links up with europe, and i think experts on china that i talked to yesterday said it's really the european angle of this that's motivating china. china was moving into increase or enhance its commercial ties with europe. and now it sees europe and the u.s. are together on this, it's significant. they may yet throw russia a lifeline, but it's not effect in any financial markets we're looking at or any trade going on right now. >> steve liesman, thank you for

helping us break all this down we're going to continue this conversation right now anthony scaramucci is joining us you've got a fund of funds that touches so many different investments around the world right now. you're looking at this and you're thinking what >> yeah, i think it's good news for the west i mean, i agree with everything steven is saying, but i'm going to just add a few thing. there's no way back into the international community for president putin. >> you think he's done >> i'm sorry >> he's done >> he's done he's a war criminal. he's someone that perpetrated murder, you know, everywhere and one of the problems now with social media, andrew, it's just ridiculously bad, and so he will likely negotiate a cease-fire and try to figure out a way to get some type of immunity for himself and some of his generals so when you stop and think about

that, that is also possibly good for the west, but then again we don't know who's going to replace vladimir putin inside the russian power structure. so to me i look at the west today, joe biden, the coalition, the 28 nations and you have to be proud of what they did because they locked him down in the most aggressive way after -- as joe kernen just mentioned 15 years of not locking him down whether it was georgia, crimea, chechnya, syria. he figured this is no problem, i'll just be able to go in there and won't face resistance. remember the former kgb officials, the gru, they're trying to split the country. they've got a map of our country somewhere in moskow and send anti-vaccine propaganda in other

areas and he really thought he had the country split and he thought he had a few of these republicans like trump going to go out there and praise him, and he thought he had the west split and he doesn't, and he is finished and i predict he'll leave before joe biden ever leaves office >> anthony, two questions. big u.s. corporations and i'm talking about mcdonald's, starbucks on sort of the retail end but then the banks that have had presences in russia that have at least pulled out temporarily. do they go back? how does that work >> so i would take you back to 1986 when the decisions were made in the west related to south africa until there is a significant regime change there and positivity and softening of that militarism, i do not see anybody being able to go back, and i don't see any reason why western leaders would release those sanctions no matter what the outcome is in the ukrainian war. and so, yes, they'll eventually

go back, andrew, a lot like south africa you know, ittook three years f until mandella was released from prison >> anthony, there's a piece out from nbc news overnight about the role of goldman sachs in the past week insofar as being a market maker for the secondary dead market for russian debt and whether that is an appropriate thing to be doing at the same time they're supposedly pulling out of russia. what do you think of that? >> so i think that's the fog of war. you know, my guess is now that that information is out there, leadership inside of goldman sachs will probably shut that down, and i think basically, you know, wall street is an opportunistic bunch of people and that was probably mishandled and a bad decision

here's the thing, all of this stuff happened very quickly. my guess is there'll be an announcement from goldman they'll shut that activity down. >> anthony, if you think sanctions will remain in place, that pushes the eu farther down the path towards a possible recession. at what point do investors start doing the mental cal clas of eu recession, those european revenues for u.s. multinationals are in jeopardy and/or china doing business with russia that has sanctions. we put secondary sanctions on china and companies here in the u.s., their revenues there might be in jeopardy, too, because they might feel the social pressure to curtail business there. >> you know, it's a very bad movie, melissa there's some memes going on around the internet where the aliens are going, twwhoa, the 22

season they went into world war 3. we have to anticipate the recession and anticipate the fed is likely going to be raising rates as a result of the inflation. but i've also got to believe when i talk to people, and these are blue collar people in the area i live in or just the general public, the general public is in support of what is going on the general public wants regime change in russia, and they want this war to end. and i think they find the atrocities being perpetrated by the russian military and vladimir putin to be absolutely despicable and so these are costs associated with what's going on. we have to reject this type of evil there's a big philosophical argument about centralization and decentralization now, how a man like this could have this type of power. the younger generation like me they want des centralization and less central authority so we will likely go through a recession because of this, but i

predict it'll be short-lived once we get the supply chain fixed. >> anthony, question about just the hedge fund complex if you will right now we've seen some of the valuation of these growth stocks come off in a big way what we haven't seen i don't think yet and this is something i think you have better insight into is how private investments have been marked, and if they haven't been marked down yet when they will and what they do in terms of margin requirements and everything else in this space. >> so the private market has still been incredibly robust, andrew we just did a deal for helium. you and i both know and have discussed this if there's a disconnect between the private market and the public market, there's almost people saying, jeez, if i go public i'm going to get penalized for being in the public market. i don't see those things getting marked down right now. could this be a conversation that we have towards the end of

the second quarter, yes. and if that happens obviously people will have to trim their sales on leverage and margin in their business but i think that's too far away right now to make that call. and you may get some surprising data here if this war ends more quickly than all of us think >> anthony scaramucci, always good to see you. have a good weekend. coming up pfizer's ceo on the global vaccination supply and the next phase of the pandemic and bofa securities on the best places to inve istn a volatile market you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history,

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these so-called golden passports where you get citizenship or residency in exchange for investment and could be anywhere from over $100,000 to $2 million. the you can has granted over 2,000. in fact it's now a $20 billion a year industry. in europe alone more than 42,000 golden citizenships or residencies were approved for the past decade. the ultrawealthy have passport portfolios with lots of countries to hedge their bets. but now the eu, u.s. and canada all cracking down on these programs the eu parliament yesterday voting to phase-out some of their programs the caribbean all popular with the russians now refusing to take new applications or process

old ones in fact his citizenship in portugal which was granted last april now under investigation by the portuguese government citing, quote, possible ir irregularities >> so they're looking into phasing out the programs but how about the golden passports that exist already? do they get reneged or cancelled? >> no, they're not going to take them away although there are some countries threatening to do that they're going to have to figure out how. they're saying no new processing and completely phase-out these programs which already for years there was a lot of corruption, a lot of lobbying, a lot of false promises so these programs were long overdue for a second look. so it's really just going to be the new ones maybe with the oligarchs they can try and take them away >> robert, thank you coming up china's tech sel sell-off deepening and pfizer ceo joins us to

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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. history supreme is the world's most expense yacht what was the selling price the answer, $4.8 billion the hull is covered in platinum gold from bow to stern and boasts more than 220,000 pounds of precious metals we're watching hong kong shares falling sharply overnight after fears reemerge of potential delisting in the united states. eunice >> thanks, melissa things were looking pretty ugly out here for just a couple of minutes before things started to turn around especially in hong kong and china, and this after a local media report that u.s. and

chinese regulators were having discussions about the audits for u.s. listed chinese companies and that those conversations were, quote, moving relatively smoothly so a new service affiliated with the state backed securities times added a consensus would be reached soon the sec earlier had named five u.s. listed adrs of chinese companies that could potentially be delisted if those companies don't provide enough information and access to their audit documents. so all five companies issued statements with varying degrees of commitment to staying in the u.s. beijing said it's looking forward to maintaining its trading on the nasdaq. acm said it's committed to meeting its requirements zai lab said it would find an accounting firm. maybe not as committed or forthright in its comments saying it would evaluate all

strategic options. and yum china said it might have to delist in early 2024. it had identified 273 companies that were at risk. it hadn't yet disclosed any names the u.s. wants to have full access to the chinese books. beijing, though, has been long pushing back barring foreign inspections of local accounting firms. and then even so china's securities regulator said it's confident it's going to be able to reach an agreement with its u.s. counterpart saying today on its social media account that it's made, quote, positive progress with the sec. sentiment, though, still shaky especially in the tech sector. there have been several reports now that have been driving that concern. one is about didi global there's a report that it's going to suspend its plans to ipo in

hong kong because it fell short of a cyber security review the belief is that the results of that cyber security review are going to be out in a matter of weeks didiglobal, though, didn't comment on those reports melissa? >> eunice, thank you eunice yoon in beijing still to come the ceo of pfizer joins us to talk about what we've learned from two years of covid vaccinating young children, for example, and much more i've got the shingles deal >> vaccine >> i did i had a sore left arm and that was it plus art active brokers founder on the markets, reaction to breaking news this morning president putin saying there's been some progress in moskow talks with ukraine stay tuned

let's get to meg terrell who joins us with a special guest. meg, good morning. thanks for joining us with your guest. >> good morning. thanks for having me, joe. and that special guest is albert, the ceo of pfizer who joins us of course on the two-year anniversary of the world health organization declaring the coronavirus a pandemic albert, good morning thanks for being with us this is a big milestone. to you what's the biggest question on your mind right now two years into this pandemic >> i think the biggest question

of all of us is how to stay ahead of the virus this has been proven to be a virus that it is very smart, knows how to mutate, knows how to create opportunities for survival so we need to stay ahead of it constantly and this is what we plan to do >> one of the ways i think you've talked about doing that is continuing to test your vaccine, and you've mentioned you are close to filing with the fda for a fourth dose. tell us about where the latest on that stands, what the data show >> i think we are going to submit to fda significant pockets of data about the need and they need to make their own conclusions of course and to see clearly there is a need in an environment of omicron to boosting immune response i don't think that there would be a need in delta i think always after the third

dose we would need annual vaccinations with omicron the situation is more challenging so we may need a fourth dose. that's something the cdc needs to decide and need to recommend. for other countries they have start recommending for those and we'll see how here they'll think about. >> did the data you have suggest a fourth dose may be needed for everybody or perhaps just certain populations, the elderly or more vulnerable >> the data wea the immune protection against omicron is very good after three doses. when it comes to hospitalizations or deaths, not as good but critical also against infections doesn't last long. after three, four months starts waning and clearly when you have waning

immune responses it's higher for people but immune response >> i see one of the tings you've talked about is testing the vaccine and developing new verges of the vaccine to better fight variants what can you tell us about that in the near term of omicron specifically, but also on a variant vaccine which i believe you talked about as well >> yes i think that people and what the medical profession needs is a version of the vaccine but lasts quite a bit. so we need to be able to move as soon as possible the situation and annual vaccination will do the job.

we are working on a version that will try to provide this annual protection but also we know the virus mutates, so we are working on new versions that will be able protect not only against the old virus and old variant but also against omicron. so we are not making a vaccine that is specific to omicron. we are making a vaccine that covers omicron and all the other variants and there are so much trials that are going right now, and a lot of them we start reading by the end of the month and then much more next month we'll have a lot of data next month, but i'm optimistic where the clinical data will demonstrate the goal to cover both the old and new variants, all variants so far. >> some of the data i think you might also be expecting next month are for kids under 5 for

your vaccine could you give us any clarity on that situation there was that back and forth where the fda asked pfizer to file with just two doses and then it said, oh, wait, we need to wait for three. what can you tell us about that? >> yes, we started two doses of the vaccine and we started that when omicron was not there the studies started and doing very well against the delta variant, but then things changed and we had the omicron coming. we knew that in adults the two doses they don't work well against omicron, and realized that would be the case also for kids however, there was a huge need because of omicron for kids. omicron has this specificity, but overall it has more mild symptoms, mider symptoms in

adults, affected way more kids than delta and the calls from the pediatricians and parents but the pediatricians with fda was so high we discussed the possibility to submit the data knowing it's not going to be spectacular on the second dose, but at least we can start giving the doses to the kids. and then the third dose will come to demonstrate how effective the vaccine is we decided to after a lot of back and forth to wait for the fed dose so we can have a clear picture. because it is equally important to make sure the data is believable by the public so we waited to see what the full picture will tell, and those are coming it's weeks away. >> hey, albert, in terms of what comes next and you think about the new vaccines that you're developing, so far they've

worked very well against severe disease, but how do you think that shifts or doesn't when it comes to infection come next fall or next winter especially in an environment as reopened, people aren't wearing masks and the like infection becomes an issue unto itself >> we need to have vaccines that prevent the infections >> but do you think that vaccines that are in development are going to work against infection as opposed to simply against severe disease because one of the things that frankly sort of undermine confidence i think in the country about vaccination unto itself is the idea that it's not necessarily preventing infection. now, the truth is i think that when we were just dealing with delta the vaccine did a pretty good job at least initially of helping prevent infection, but when it came to omicron it

didn't >> no. first of all, you're right against delta the vaccine was very, very effective against infections and not only -- it lasted six months the second dose and the third largely would last a year omicron protects -- the vaccine protects very well but not as good against infections. what they're trying to do with the vaccine that also prevents against infections against omicron and against the other variant. clearly it's very, very important that we prevent against hospitalizations and deaths that makes huge difference to public health and human pain but it's way better if you can prevent against infections as well and we keep the bar very high. >> well, albert, just thinking about where we stand now two years into this, you know, one

of the things you wrote about in your book "moon shot" is the preparation that had to go into being ready to have the science, do that incredible nine-month race to the vaccine and of course you guys also develop this anti-viral. and we're here now two weeks in -- two years in having gone through this major omicron surge. congress now just side lined new coronavirus funding for the biden administration's, you know, new plan for covid are you concerned we are not setting ourselves up to be prepared for what comes next have we moved on from this have policy makers moved on from this too quickly >> yes, i am concerned and the reason i am concerned is because right now the only difficult that americans can access vaccines they're under emergency use authorization. there are no other tunnels

so if the government doesn't have money no one can get the vaccine. common sense will prevail and they'll release the funds. >> thanks so much for being with us on this big day we really appreciate it. >> thank you coming up a live report from ukraine on humanitarian issues there as russia widens its attacks to new cities. the futures holding onto those gains made on the back of vladimir putin's comments that there are certain positive shifts in talks with ukraine the dow looking to add 358 at the enop s&p looking to be up by 52 "squawk box" will be right back. ♪♪ care. it has the power to change the way we see things. ♪♪

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welcome back to squawk president putin launching a deadly new attack on the already besieged southern city of mariupol this one just a day after planes bombed a maternity hospital. russia reportedly extending its front lines further to the west with air strikes hitting key airports in the region just this morning russian president vladimir putin now saying there's been some progress in mouskow's talks wit ukraine. we want to get over to nbc's ali

arouzi joining us now. >> reporter: president putin has said there's been some progress with talks but that's hard to see on the ground because in the early hours of this morning the russians widened their operations and started targeting fresh cities they hit the central town that is a strong hold in the center of the country of ukrainian authorities say they targeted a shoe factory, an apartment building and kindergarten and one person was killed there. and their attacks in the early hours are also very far west they were hit at the very beginning of the war, but they haven't been hit so far since now, so these are the most western cities that have been hit. there were two airports in those cities that had military facilities, and that's why we think that those areas had been hit. and also the relentless bombing of kharkiv continues that place has just been

pounded. the mayor of kharkiv said that in just one day 89 bombs have dropped in that city, so i don't know what vladimir putin's idea of successful talks are because there were certainly no success yesterday between the foreign minister of russia and the foreign minister of ukraine. those talks ended without agreeing to any safe zones and corridors for civilians to get out or any type of cease-fire. now, today there are plans for new corridors to be opened up, and we're not sure how that's going quite yet. >> ali, what kind of communication is being made by ukraine officials right now? we're hearing from vladimir putin on one side. we haven't heard from officials in ukraine just yet on this issue, and what kind of access to information do the people in ukraine have at this point in terms of infrastructure that may -- may or may not be

reliable >> okay, well as far as words from the ukrainians here, they're not happy. they say that the russians haven't honored any cease-fires so far, that they haven't let any civilians out of these very hard hit eastern cities, that all of these corridors that were established over the last few days have been hit by the russians, and they haven't honored anything they've said. even the prime minister here said that right now more civilians have been killed in ukraine than military personnel, which is really shocking so they're saying the russians are not adhering to anything, and they are targeting indiscriminately across the country. as far as communications go, it's a bit hit and miss. in the very hard hit parts of eastern ukraine around mariupol, parts of kyiv which is also being bombed very hard, the internet goes down, it's choppy. we spoke to some people this

morning that had made that perilous journey from kyiv here to lviv where we are, and they said we sometimes get through to our families, the internet works, the phone lines sometimes work so they do get information but it doesn't flow safely >> thank you when we return, more on this morning's markets, the futures ahead of the open on the back of that putin comment whether it's real or not still an open question, but investors seem to be believing something here dow jones up about 341 points, the s&p 500 up about 50 points we're back after this.

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russian president vladimir putin says there's been in his words some progress in moskow's talks with ukraine and the fuchards immediately reacted positively to that news. the head of u.s. equity and quantitative strategy at bofa securities you point out that we've seen things like this before and we may have an idea how the stock market and bond market react to geopolitical events, and this could be similar are you still of that view this is not different enough to where all bets are off this time around because it seems to be like it could turn into something a lot

more concerning than some of the other corrects you think this is 10% right? >> well, it obviously depends on, you know, the outcome. so i think what we're watching is whether this geopolitical shock is different enough from prior geopolitical shocks to warrant kind of significant fundamental changes to the market and the transmission mechanisms would be the european growth, energy, you know, oil price spikes and inflation and the impact on consumer and corporate confidence, the idea that we're at peak globalization. but, you know, i think a lot of these things were in play before the russia-ukraine conflict. even events tragic and take their toll, the market toll was

extreme and airlines were down 30% within that, you know, next week you know, these are cataclysmic events, but what's interesting is unless there's a real material fundamental change driven by these events, we normally see that geopolitical shock fade and gains are, you know, more than enough to compensate over the nooext thre months to your point and what we're watching to make sure it's not different is when we see deescalation, when we see any sort of potential resolution, what kind of toll this takes on europe across european and u.s. corporates, and i think what this does, though, is it solidifies the notion that we are at peak globalization and

we're in different environment it started a few years ago with the trade in and national security risk to china, and what we're seeing there is further events that solidify the notion we're at a point where global supply chain risk is paramount we're seeing companies plan to onshore or reensure their operations i think this is all kind of playing through this event in particular we need to see whether it is resolved more quickly or whether it actually takes a toll on confidence, on the economy, et cetera you know, i think what's important to remember about the u.s. is that we are energy independent. so the good news is we don't necessarily rely on imported oil, and that's an advantage in this environment europe is not. and i think that's a disadvantage in this environment. so i think those are things we need to pay attention to when we think about relative asset allocation

i also think, joe, this volatility can actually represent opportunity. so our target for the s&p 500 by year end is 4,600. we looked like bears coming into the year we now look like bulls and i think what this means is there are opportunities to add onto sectors beaten down by these risks, for example semiconductors, software there are a lot of hi-tech companies that might be at levels that suggest great entry points i still like energy. i think energy still has up sides. i think there are lots of areas within the market you can sift through and do some security selection, but to your point i think volatility is likely to remain elevated until we do see a real more what's called satisfying resolution. >> really is like three-dimensional chess, i guess. the russian economy is so small,

it's like why would we think that could be -- well, it affects china. maybe we've seen peak globalization. we may be close to energy independence certainly versus a place like germany, but if brent crude goes to $120, we're going to be paying a lot more -- if we can get it but it's going to be far priced that inflation is going to ripple through and effect how the fed facts. there's all these additional -- go on. >> it's already impacting the consumer in the u.s. if we look at our credit card data what we're noticing in the lower income we're already seeing a meaningful decline in spending trends. so this tax is starting to hurt the u.s. consumer. remember oil prices doubled last year it's not all just right now the effects of what's happening right now. we started the year thinking the consumer is going to feel a bit

of a pinch from the big rise in oil prices and the fact they're running off of stimulus, and that is part of what's happened in addition to the super spike about russia about supply shops. >> we're going to end it there good to have you on this morning. thanks have a great weekend >> thanks. you, too it is just after 8:00 a.m. in new york city and you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm melissa lee in for becky quick this morning along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin futures rise after vladimir putin was quoted as saying there had been some progress in talks with ukraine right now the dow indicated to open by 308 points s&p 500 looking to open about 144, nasdaq about 180. interactive brokers founder and chairman thomas peterffy in just

a bit, but meanwhile let's get right to dom chu >> we talked last hour about some of the big movers with regard to some of the ripple effects of the putin headlines, the russia-ukraine war and what not. we do have some individual movers we'll start off first with a chip equipment making company, so the stuff that makes computer chips. volume is picking up a bit also a $6 billion share buy back program that is helping to provide some of those tail winds. watch the entire semiconductor space because of this. also some possible take over news coming out in pearson this is the british based education technology and publishing company down about 30% so far from the highs this year. it's up about 18% after apollo

global confirmed it's weighing a possible bid, no deal announced for pearson that might not lead to a deal, but still those talks are ongoing. and right now pearson shares up about 18% on that bit of news. and then as we do often in this hour a check on the most popular tickers, search on our website cnbc.com on yesterday's full session. those shares up about 1.5% on some disappointing earnings and also apple and tesla and docu sign-on that earnings stor as well some highlight from the top 50 that might tell some thematic elements. >> i think by the way that pearson news is going to be indicative of the kind of thing you're seeing across the board, so many stocks that have been hammered and that's even with the premium now put in place you're going to start to see i

think a bit more mna as we look at this market futures moving higher on that news is it to be believed cnbc's kayla taushe joins us with more. >> the top diplomats from russia and ukraine just yesterday fail to make any progress toward a withdrawal frf russian troop from ukraine or a cease-fire to protect civilians. it is not clear what developments sparked the change in sentiment or whether it is anything more than more talk at this point yesterday in turkey russia's foreign minister said he wasn't going to make a deal, that russia was protecting its legitimate political interests in ukraine, and he vowed to permanently cut economic ties with the west. inside ukraine air strikes are now targeting cities in western ukraine that had previously been outside zones of violence.

the u.k. foreign secretary suggesting russia's forces outside the capital city of kyiv may reattempt to take the city in the coming days here in washington president biden this morning will announce the u.s. is ending normal trade relations with russia, revoking russia's status as a so-called most favored nation that had exempted its vodka, cav iar, plywood and more from tariffs until now. yesterday on cnbc treasury secretary janet yellin declined to say what additional tools the u.s. could use to punish russia, but she did say she does not see a recession under way as a result of these market shots >> we've been looking all morning trying to understand what you think whether putin is telling the truth or not and i know nobody really knows, but i'm curious what you think the tea leaves are going to be in washington and also how much pressure, we're talking about a

comment peter put out this morning about how much pressure you think putin is under not from the u.s. but china at this point. >> well, the mind and motivation of putin have been a black box in this entire sfcenario. you heard the minister of ukraine saying the foreign minister was not authorized to make a deal. but it comes down to what putin wants. there has been a suggestion throughout the course of the last three weeks that perhaps putin was surprised at the resistance that he met by the ukrainian forces and maybe that would cause him to rethink his position maybe when that convoy was stalled outside kyiv, maybe he would rethink the assault on kyiv and trying to install the government there, but we haven't seen that play out yet, and whether the developments of the last week have moved to change his mind, andrew, no one can know at this point until we get something more definitive. >> always good to see you. what a day and what a week it's

been have a good weekend. talk to you soon >> coming up interactive broker thomas peterffy talks market vault tilt andthets next plus much more on the overall markets as we approach the end of a whipsaw week wall street and putin wouldn't buy some calls on just a couple of things, really. >> i've always thought about that by the way, i've thought about oil two months ago >> we've got to go stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back. throwing things at me? look, as cfo it's my job to be ready for whatever's next. that's why i have my finance team, randomly hurl things at me. it's also why we use workday. it gives us insights, so we quickly pivot our strategy, people, planning, you name it. sorry, sir. i will aim straight at your next step. see that you do. would you like some coffee? workday. the finance, hr, and planning system for a changing world.

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stock futures this morning on a comment from russian president vladimir putin that she's seen some positive shifts and talks with ukraine and we did have initial gains but still looking to add 300 on the open toward the dow and 400 on the s&p 500. of course we've been seeing this market whipped around by the volatility brought on and that includes retail investors. joining us now thomas peterffy chairman of interactive brokers. you've been a long time market watcher. you're from this region. what's your initial take on

these comments and the market reaction >> it would be wonderful and i don't know if it is so i think -- i think that putin has a tight circle around him, and we have to exercise some pressure on the circle to make some of these people turn on him, and that pressure must come from the younger people so i don't necessarily think it's a good idea to give up all communication and/or corporation leaving russia i think these people will feel once putin is gone they will be

welcome in the west instead of chasing them into china's arms >> i want to switch gears here and talk about the retail investor, and we've seen certainly a boom coming to the market and interactive brokers, well, all the brokers benefitted from that wave of retail investors has really not been the home of retail investor. i'm wondering if this mobile app you're launching is an effort to further attract them they may be put off by the interface and the graphics may thought be so friendly, et cetera >> so interactive brokers customers proactively analyze the markets and provide them with data and research and trading tools to achieve their objectives so we had a very feature-rich platform that often scares away people who are not used to -- who are not experienced or expert investors this is by the reason we are using this very, very simple

interface global trader. you can download it from the apple store in a couple of minutes, open the icon and begin trading. it is also useful for people who are on the go and quickly check or do a quick trade. in addition there's a wonderful pathway for people to learn about the platform and trading as beginners and i can go to different levels of sophistication on the platform so this is -- this is something that should appeal to people that previously feel it was only for professional traders >> amazon earlier this week as you know announced a 24-1 stock split. it makes it easier for investors to trade options contracts are cheaper, and i'm wonder if you

expect a boom or any sort of benefit from this. can we've seen a number of companies do this. the idea is that maybe new people come in to trade this trade options on this stock. >> well, certainly some new people would come in but option volume certainly will explode and it's a good thing for the industry and for brokers like ourselves definitely >> i didn't know all this about you but certainly want to get some of your comments. born in budapest in a hospital basement during a russian air-raid in 1944 your father emigrated here in '56 after the failure of the hungarian y revolution you didn't come until 1965 he didn't have room for you,

your dad, but he gave you $100 and said make something of yourself i get teary thinking about it, but what a country and what are your thoughts on what we're seeing in the world right now? >> it's absolutely horrendous. so i remember the time in 1956 when the russian tanks came in, and in those days there were no tanks so the tanks would roll-up in front of a building and suspected there's some movement may be in the building or a flicker of light and they just stayed down the entire building. this is just horrendous. but on the other hand you have on the think of the people on the other side i mean, there are these young kids in these steel cages for weeks on end, they cannot go through the bathroom they have to turn off their engines and freeze to death, may

not have gasoline, may not have rations enough to eat. it's a tremendous situation on both sides >> so that's interesting you make those points. it's horrific for both sides, but does that indicate that maybe he can lose the support from the common soldier all the way up to the general at some point? should we hope for that? >> i definitely think that some of these troops have gone dark, they are hiding in the woods it's gnot good for putin he's going to lose his army within in the meantime >> wow when you think about u.s. or

western companies doing business in russia in the future, do you think they can and how do you think the investment community should think about that? >> i definitely think we should continue to maintain -- this fight is with putin. it's not about the russian people, and i think that we have to rely on them to -- to put pressure on putin's inner circle to bring him down. otherwise i don't see -- i don't see driving russia -- i mean china's arms that's not a good alternative for us >> one of the other things we've seen is a number of financial firms, u.s. firms, for example, goldman sachs, jp morgan, a number of other western banks effectively debank russia. but a number of them are still trading or at least acting as a market maker for secondary debt. this is not a new debt issued by

russia but debt that had been issued by russia historically. some concerns about those who might be selling that debt and connections to putin do you think that u.s. and other western banks should effectively say we're not even going to touch russian debt in any way at all? >> you can do that if you previously underwrote the debt or sold the debt to your customers you cannot stop making the mark i don't think that's a tenable situation. >> i think that's a very good point. thomas, before we let you know, i do want to go back to the amazon options because i think this is fascinating. i didn't know when amazon splits the options on amazon will be the most traded options contract out there. i mean, if you just did the simple math, et cetera, should we be thinking about upward revisions for platforms that offer options trading because of

it >> well, formation income will increase as a result, but i think maybe 2, 3, 4%, that's what i would expect. >> in terms of increase in activity >> that's right, volume, yes >> volume, okay. thank you so much for your time. we do appreciate it. >> thank you very much coming up fresh off another hot inflation report from the government we're going to ask two former chairman of the president's council of economic advisers on what the u.s. can do to get the crisis under control first, though, as we head to break just a few of this morning's top business headlines. didi global plunging following a bloomberg report the ride hailing company was suspending plans to have its shares traded in hong kong and toyota says it will cut car production by 20% in april, may, june inan effort to ease the

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been some positive developments in talks with ukraine. the s&p 500 looking at 40 at the open, dow looking up to be up 281. we had looked at possibly 400-point advance on the dow earlier. the nasdaq is up 16 # but nevertheless green across the board. today we're set a pass a new monetary milestone on what we hope is our way out of the pandemic steve liesman joins us with more steve? >> melissa, get out the party hat. some time around 3:00 p.m. this afternoon the federal reserve should announce results of the last purchase of mortgage backed securities and put an end to the largest quantitative easing program in its and u.s. history. it's a measure how far the fed looks to be behind the curve the insecurity comes a day after inflation was reported at a 40-year high and just six days before the fed is set to raise interest rates that's not to mention coming inflation surge linked to

russia's invasion of ukraine it started increasing its balance sheets by $120 billion a month to give stimulus to the economy. over 24 months it doubled the size to $8.8 trillion. the fed will actually keep buying assets as paper matures and the fed tries to maintain the current level of the balance sheet, that is until it decides to reduce the balance sheet, and that's supposed to happen this summer the fed is always in there as a buyer. could be good for wall street firms good for training and other fees so belatedly markets are going to have to stand on their own in a way they have not, melissa, in several years.

>> steve goldman marking down their outlook this morning what's behind this change? >> so there's three things they're saying you have tighter financial divisions than they estimated, higher inflation and a bigger hit to europe, all that bouncing back on the u.s. here. what goldman did was similar to what we would reported on monday with the rapid update which brings together 14 forecasts they brought their forecast down by about a half a point. the difference with goldman is they are much lower than the rest of the street, and of course this was on monday, and goldman's had a whole week to think about it, so it may be others are with them but they're down 1.7%, and the key there is below potential. so they see a pretty decent hit to u.s. economic growth this year they wacked the second quarter so they're not seeing much bounce back from the omicron wave, and of course they put a much bigger number on their inflation forecast and they think that's going to dampen

consumer demand. soon to come the news that sent shares of ev start-up rivian plunging after its latest quarterly report plus democrats, they're floating an idea to tax excess oil company profits, but what does excess really mean that story is on the way a lot more coming up right here on "squawk box" as we roll on. (vo) for me, one of the best things about life is that we keep moving forward. we discover exciting new technologies. redefine who we are and how we want to lead our lives. basically, choose what we want our future to look like. so what's yours going to be?

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investors pulling the plug on rivian after its latest quarterly report phil lebeau joins us now with more hey, phil? >> hey, joe. not a strong report net reflected in shares of rivian after the bell yesterday down 8% premarket today. it was a wider than expected loss, yes, reservations have increased going from 71,000 in december up to 83,000 as of earlier this week, but it's the guidance that's the reason that the shares are under pressure and we're also seeing analysts bring down their expectations. they're only going to produce 35,000 vehicles this year. most were expecting to be 37,000, 40,000 the capacity was 50,000. why? supply strain constraints. here's the ceo of rivian talking about the semiconductor shortage >> i'm spending a lot of time

and our leadership team is spending a lot of time with our semiconductor suppliers in make sure we're securing the right allocation, and that allocation we get into higher production rates especially the back half of this year is where we see risk, and it's what caused us to make the adjustments to what we're guiding to in terms of production for this year >> remember the pricing snafu that happened last week where they raised prices 17 to 20% even for people who had previously placed an order well, the order rate according to the company has not been hurt because that price increase, which, by the way they brought back for those who already had an existing order. the r1 prices up 17 to 20%, a reflection of what they're seeing with all the supply chain constraints and the growth in commodity costs. by the way, as you take a look at shares of rivian since last fall keep in mind they'll be naming a coo next week as you look at the analyst

comments today, joe, a lot of them are bringing down their expectations, put they're not saying, look, this is the end of the world for rivian they're saying these guys are learning some tough lessons early on and that's why it's going to be a slow go in terms of the ramp up >> brings me back to my childhood, my kids childhood, thomas the tank engine and i saw him. i saw percy there for a second, i think. i saw some of the troublesome trucks they have faces, the cars you just show have faces and personalities. i can't believe the stock is not doing better >> coming up after the break not one but two former heads of the council of kbhk advisers debating how to tame american inflation and the take on a new potential tax on big oil stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live this morning from the nasdaq market site in times square

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welcome back to "squawk box. as gas prices spike democratic lawmakers unveiling a new plan to tax big oil

good morning >> good morning, an due. well, president biden warned oil companies not to use the crisis in ukraine as an excuse to raise prices now, democrats in congress are introducing a bill to make sure that does not happen the big oil wind fall profits tax takes aim at companies like chevron, shell, bp, eog, exxon or occidental that produce over 300 barrels a day. that amount would be an excise tax on every barrel of oil the sponsor of this bill said the ultimate goal is to speed up the transition to renewableables, to lower energy costs and insulate from price spikes and reduce. now, republicans say democrats are actually making inflation worse.

>> we're going to fight back against some of these nonsensical, irrational, simplistic policies that national democrats continue to put forward. >> democrats know that high gas prices are an economic and political problem, joe, so they're just trying to figure out how to tackle it back over to you >> we've seen this movie before. joining us to talk about this new tax idea for the oilmajors as well as the inflation crunch austin goldby, and tyler goodsby. i'll let you guys hash it out. knowing you, austin, and i love you and you are a democrat but you're a trained economist i can't imagine you think this is a good idea, as a trained economist. are you in favor of a wind fall

profits tax on big oil, austin >> i'm not a big fan i don't see what that's going to solve. i think there's a high chance the way they described it in that segment that it would lead oil prices or gas prices to go up i think if you're doing something to try to get political credit it's worth remembering in the year 2021 we had a massive rescue package which gave a tax cut of almost $4,000 to the average family, which exceeded the amount that prices went up by inflation, but it's not like anybody got political credit for giving a rebate that exceeded the amount that inflation was so i think it just as a political matter, that doesn't strike me as -- as going to be a very big political boom to anybody that did >> tyler, before i get to you i want to drill down with austin and just honestly talk about

what we think is happening here. so inflation off the charts, so we know that the pandemic had all kinds of factors that play into what we're seeing with theflation with supply chains. so we got that we know putin at least recently has something to do with it but only since the invasion, maybe some for the build up. how much do you think the fed -- we're having some of our guests draw a direct cor laegz between what the fed has done not only with the fed but fiscal spending how much of that is what we're seeing with inflation and how much is a pandemic reopening, supply chain and energy and things like that, austin >> you know, i thought that the majority was supply chain pandemic and if you look at the producer price index, inflation in china, that's 15%, in germany

that's 20% in the u.s. that's over 10%. that suggests that there's a major supply chain component i have been surprised that the fed stayed literally at zero, moved into emergency mode when the economy was in collapse, didn't return to something like normal as conditions return to normal but that said, when there's a supply chain component and russia began massing troops along the border of ukraine by december 3rd of last year, prices were up 40% for oil before the invasion began, so on the energy side for sure we've had a supply shock, and you don't want to vertighten into the face of a supply shock i mean we learned that in the '70s so the fed is in a tough spot. >> tyler, see, with you guys unlike you're on the right side of our debate today, but unlike the politicians both of you guys

are actually trained in something in economics so just like austin wouldn't just take -- i don't expect you to take the republican side and say oh, my god biden just -- he owns this, he tolly totally owns all this inflation >> what i would say is i would like to defend our supply chains and our ports for a minute because i think it's important to remember that in march 2021 demand for goods in the united states increased 10.7% month over month that's a 240% annualized rate of increase in one month and it was in response to a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill in march 2021, and our ports in 2021 handled the volume of imported goods that was about 20% above pre-pandemic volumes. usually when be see both priels and quantity goes up, that means

it was a demand shock, so i think our ports were doing a pretty good job handling an un unprecedented demand for goods in 2021. yes, we've seen inflation rise around the world it's risen much more in the united states than other adv advanced economies the increase in the rate of inflation in the united states was about three times that in the euro area since february 2021 >> okay, that's kind of -- that's interesting, austin, and you can comment on that. let me ask both of you this. austin, would you concede germany rush things with the transition to renewables and that's part of of the problem. maybe here it was about making

climate change the preeminent clause in january 2020 you're probably going to say we can chew gum and walk at the same time. that's what i hear all the time. is that what you would say, we need to keep drilling as well? where are you on that right now? >> the first thing i'm going to say is what is this new negotiator, consilliator >> i'm running for office but my daughter might be in d.c. and i think i might visit there a lot. what do you think? do i have any potential? >> i thought -- i'm not an expert on energy i think the russia way from nuclear in germany, i don't know how you look at it and not think it wenta little too fast even if you are a big believer we must do things on climate change, nuclear is carbon free you know, so to couple both of

those on top of opening yourself up -- >> how do you get the democrats do get behind that how do you get the democrats to get behind nuclear up is up, down is down today >> look, i've always been of the view that for sure climate change is real and it comes with a lot of major economic costs, so we should be trying to deal with that. but that you kind of have to do that with an all-in approach that in the immediate term i don't think it's realistic to phase-out nuclear in a rapid way if you do not yet have the capacity to supply power with the others >> tyler, can you say the words grill, baby, grill, or is that not in your vocabulary >> i don't know. today everything seems to be turned on its head no, i agree with austin the russia way from nuclear in

countries like germany was in haste at the end of the day. so the piling into green that we've seen, the coordinated piling into green that we've seen in the past year cross advanced economies is likely to have increased inflationary pressure for a lot of the input components and i would just say on the drill baby drill front, look, the increase in u.s. production only from the shale revolution was just unprecedented, and it was on average saving the typical american household about $2500 a year it was actually more than predicted by the epa for the 2020 clean power act >> wow we end on a good note. we're all on this -- that was pretty good. you don't always need people

yelling at each other, yi don't think, on these things, do you >> remember that, joe, you don't always need people yelling at each other >> i've got a good-bye that someone sent in from actually our director he wants me to say and to you two got speed, good speed and goolsby. that's pretty good, isn't it >> the only feature film in which my surname makes an appearance >> you've got poets working over there, joe, but they don't know it all right, have a good weekend both of you gentlemen. coming up much more in the markets this friday morning plus a surprising content move from facebook owner meta. stay tedun you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire.

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reportedly making temporary changes to the hate speech policy due to the war in ukraine. facebook and instagram users in some countries will be allowed to advocate violence against russian shoulders, km talking about the invasion of ukraine. some calls for death to vladimir putin and also the president of belarus will be permitted, but advocacy and violence against russian civilians not allowed. in an e-mail seen by reuters those including latvia, lithuania, and poland will be covered under the policy russia's embassy in the u.s. demanding washington stop meta's extremist activities, or what they called it

they asked a court to designate meta as an extremist organization. >> i think it's a slippery slope. >> i don't love it i don't love it. i don't know i don't know i don't know. >> the flip side is that, you know, well, you have all the tech companies depriving the russian people of a platform, et. cetera you're also -- >> that i think is fair. >> there's also thwarting pro democracy activists. you're thwarting russians from potentially organizing, if they chose to do so or wanted to to show. >> could you do so without the lapg wage? that's the question. because we've become very conscious of language. and i don't know right. we've decided the certain language in the united states and elsewhere is inappropriate. >> it's not me, by the way it's meta.

>> i think it's a dangerous precedent to set. >> already had the whole conversation this morning when i got in we're all walking around on egg shells all the time. it's okay. it's hard for a guy like me. hard for a guy like me. >> the foot goes in the mouth. >> i only open my mouth to change the right or left. coming up, what to watch ahead of the opening bell on wall street as we make our way toward the bell. the dow is sitting 1.3% lower than where it began monday another negative week for the index would make five in a row the longest in three years 'rwa ted wee tching squaux bob. reet bank, pnc has helped over 7 million kids develop their passion for learning. and now we're providing 88 billion dollars to support underserved communities... ...helping us all move forward financially. pnc bank: see how we can make a difference for you.

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we likely to see another year in which 12 month inflation numbers remain uncomfortably high the federal reserve is looking carefully at this. they have indicated they intend to take actions to bring inflation down i have confidence in their ability to make a meaningful difference going forward. >> that was treasury secretary janet yellen on cnbc talking about surging inflation. markets fell off the hot cpi report yesterday futures are up this morning on a comment from russian president vladimir putin there were certain positive shifts in talks with ukraine that's a question whether it's the truth or not joining us now is veteran

investor rob gornot. they have $169 billion in assets under management good morning to you. do you believe vladimir putin this morning >> well, take everything he says with a grain of salt as for the fed, the fed's ability to predict inflation is notoriously bad. they is been awful at it inflation can cause a recession in an inverted yield curve can cause a recession. but the yield curve won't be inverted until short rates are roughly as high as the 10-year that gives them room for six or seven hikes. so there's plenty of room for them to try to take a little bit of heat out of inflation. >> is there a way to do this with a soft landing? do you believe janet yellen? >> i think if they proceed

carefully, if they proceed to the point where the market says don't go there don't go to an inverted yield curve, then they'll be fine. they can do a full 1% rate hike next week, if they wanted to without disrupting the economy in a big way how is that possible well, right now the yield is zero and inflations are almost 8% that's a minus 8% real rate. or is it being paid 8% to borrow those that can borrow at those rates, well, it leads to investment and misallocation of resources. yes, the fed should hike aggressively but no the point where they create an inverted yield curve. >> you believe the market is higher at the end of the year, at this point? >> i have a view on that i don't think it will

necessarily be higher at the end of the year. non-u.s. stocks are cheap. especially emerging market stocks the repricing of russian asset to effectively zero in investor portfolios for the time being means that emerging markets collectively are wildly out of favor. you know, what does ukraine have to do with chile or indonesia? what we find is that emerging markets are cheap. i think they're the place to go. >> but in terms of your portfolio, i imagine you're not saying everybody out of the pool >> no. i wouldn't say that. i would say be cautious. u.s. stocks are very expensive i like to use the price relative to 10 year sold earnings takes out the effects of the economic cycle and that ratio is around 35 or 36 times the 10 year average earnings

that's expensive that's very expensive. you can go half way back to historic norms over the next 10 years. you still would be expensive it would cost you 3% a year in repricing of the stock market. >> would you buy -- >> covid no fed policy today no ukrainian independence, it pains me to say this, but no russian adventurism maybe because the country is boxing itself into be a pariah state as long as putin is at the helm reckless spending in absolutely. it divers resources from the private sector that crudely punishes capital and government spending doesn't >>well, i want to thank you this morning. we will -- i am sure we'll check

in with you before five years from now we'll see. we'll see where things stand in five years, as well. >> thank you. >> a great weekend a final check on markets before we hand it over to our friends on squawk on the street. the dow up about 233 points. i think we have questions whether we believe putin make sure you join us next week. "squawk on the street" is next special thank you to melissa good friday morning. welcome to squa"squawk on the street." i'm david faber. we get ready to start the final trading day of the week. andrew told you we're looking for an up open as we all know, given the volatility we've been seeing interday, it doesn't mean much these days let's get to the road map this