in with you before five years from now we'll see. we'll see where things stand in five years, as well. >> thank you. >> a great weekend a final check on markets before we hand it over to our friends on squawk on the street. the dow up about 233 points. i think we have questions whether we believe putin make sure you join us next week. "squawk on the street" is next special thank you to melissa good friday morning. welcome to squa"squawk on the street." i'm david faber. we get ready to start the final trading day of the week. andrew told you we're looking for an up open as we all know, given the volatility we've been seeing interday, it doesn't mean much these days let's get to the road map this

morning. it starts with ongoing geopolitical risk for stocks potential signs of progress in russia/ukraine cease-fire talks. perhaps setting the stage for a seesaw rally. >> economic head winds goldman cutting the u.s. gdp forecast sees recession odds as high as 35%. and new warning signs for tech shares of oracle, docusign moving lower in the premarket. we'll get to those we'll look or start with a look at market volatility stocks, as you saw, are looking to recoup some of yesterday's losses nice to have mike on set when i fill in on "closing bell" i have you here to say how did the day look how. >> it's harder on this side. >> much harder. >> give me your sense given the four days we've had so far. >> we've been jumpy within a

range. the high on monday the s&p 500 was just over 4300 this morning when we got that headline about maybe there's going to be incremental deescalation, maybe putin has something to say that is a little bit, you know, less hostile, we went to 4300 the point is, we've basically, in this sort of general support zone, what has been done already is the big question. what is priced in already. have we made our piece with $100ish oil at this point. oil is not making new highs. it's down for the week we basically have compressed evaluations a fair bit you're seeing a treacherous take in tech. overall sentiment is pretty negative i think us is cementble to any glimmer of hope. we did have a little bit of a china trade talk going well. remember those days? we think it's the thing we care most about we think we're looking for incremental progress eventually we got real progress. until the interim, it was an excuse for the market to either kind of blip higher or lower in

the short term. >> yeah. i mean, range being sort of the keyword there that i'm homing in on equity market is concerned that being said, if you have just were away and didn't look at the markets for the past week, you probably would have missed the fact we saw some incredibly dramatic volatile moves in so many different markets, in general this week. whether it was in the bond market or the crude market other commodities markets. it's been a whirlwind even if it seems quieter. to this point, it seems like it. at least premarket the comments from vladimir putin about developments in talks with key that are moving things right now. we can see that in futures it's energy stocks it's material stocks and fertilizer stocks under pressure now. also gold. whereas you have copper higher and then some of those names that have been hit particularly hard some of the tech names, for example, at the top of the list

in terms of premarket gains, mike we know earlier this week that stock had sold off because of the exposure in russia/ukraine. >> yeah. you mentioned inflationary impacts and high yield prices. we've been talking about that and food prices, as well it's hard to understand fully the impact that these sanctions on russia will have. not just on that economy but europe, as well. we talk about rising energy prices there and how significant it will be for the european economy. yesterday janet yellen joined closing bell she had thoughts on both of those issues. >> we've seen meaningful increases in oil prices that are related to russia's invasion they're major producers of wheat. we're seeing impacts on food prices i think that can have very

severe effect on vulnerable emerging market countries. we'll see something on food. palladium, nickel, other minerals that vushsha exports. >> yes you know, mike, a lot of market participants trying to figure out the broader impact it's still early in trying to do that obviously we've seen what happened in the market for nickel. >> sure. >> and or even palladium but wheat and food is an important component of this. we haven't discussed as much. >> globally there's a scramble for physical supplies and lots of things that are not assessable how does it filter into the broader economic picture i mean, i think based on yellen was saying with, it pushed off by several months at minimum this moment many were expecting where inflation just kind of because of its own, you know, statistical mean reversion and a lot of other factors coming on to line was going to become less

of a problem now the core has come off the highs. core inflation what does it mean for the fed when goldman is saying we have a perhaps one in four or one in three chance tipping into recession this year. that's why it's become more complex. by the way what goldman is saying the treasury yield curve implies 25 to 30% chance of a recession based on historical tendencies we're kind of not going to argue with that, at this point it's the three month and the two month. the 10 year at 2% once again. >> yeah. if you have to wonder, though, when you're talking about something like wheat and other agricultural commodities you're talking about potential issues and disruptions that get prolonged in the energy markets. you talk about neon supplies coming out of ukraine, for example. being frozen and what it can mean for semiconductors. you have to wonder how much a tightening fed will do to that

scenario these are key questions. we'll be watching them with the fed meeting next week. in the meantime, in a little more than an hour from now, president biden is scheduled to deliver remarks about holding russia accountable for its invasion of ukraine. ka kayla tou she is joining us now with the details >> reporter: hi, morgan. 4-president biden will announce another economic rampup of things against russia. it will call for revoking normal trade relations with russia. revoking the status as a most favored nation that had exempted its bond caviar and plywood from tariffs. so far congress has been united on this issue. yesterday on cnbc treasury secretary janet yellen declined to say what additional tools the u.s. could use to punish russia. she doesn't see a recession

underway as a result of the market shocks in response to the actions taken against russia as the war in ukraine enters the third week, an advisor saying this morning that russia's advances in the country had stalled. telling a news briefing, quote, our opponent has been halted in practically every direction by air strikes, rocket fire, and ground attacks separately ukraine's president said the war was at a strategic turning point. he said patience is still needed to bring the situation to an end and the uk foreign secretary also suggesting russia's forces outside kyiv may reattempt to take the city in the coming days so any positive sentiment, david, has in the past been very short lived. as the market begins to realize that putin is playing the long game here. >> yeah with utterly terrible consequences kayla, thank you kayla will be updating us

whenever and we need it. >> if you haven't figured out, march is investor day month. probably getting a sense last week exxon, chevron, citi, at&t and others had their investors days in march you set the course for the next year or two, at least. the case of at&t, of course, you're trying to set expectations for what is going to be new at&t without warner media a part of it that's going to begin. let's call it a month from now when the spin to discovery is completed. yesterday we talked about the bond offering to help finance the deal itself. today at&t laying out the growth strategy following the close of the warner media transaction you can see the stock is responding at least right now positively to the press release. it just went out a short time ago. a couple of key things to look at they plan to double their fiber

footprint to 30 plus million locations, they say, including increasing business customers locations by two fold to 5 million. and they do expect to add as many as 3.5 to 4 million customer locations each year so they want to become, they say, intend to become america's best broadband provider. it's about broadband and 5g wireless that's what the business is going to be. the way we're going to -- on the investor population is going to actually judge that is going to be based on whether it can reach its cost savings goals, which are by the end of '23 to expect to reach 6 billion and run rate cost savings it did achieve about $3 billion through the end of 2021. and then it's going to be about free cash flow and i wanted to get to that. because the company is -- it says in answering to a certain extent getting feedback from investors. it's making its financial reporting more consistent with industry peers how is it doing that it's now including vendor

financing payments as a capital investment so free cash flow now will be measured as cash operations, plus capital investment. it includes vendor financing payments and direct tv they own the most of it but run by another company so here is the numbers pro forma for what at&t without warner would have been in 2021 under the new cash flow formulation. $19.2 billion. it was the free cash flow number for 2021 that can put in perspective where we are for' 22 the range? $16 billion. down why down well, $24 billion in capital and capital investments increase about $4 billion year over year as they ramp up deployment of fiber that i talked about and 5g also, taxes. $2 billion higher than 21. so that can take into account why you're going significantly down in free cash flow back to $20 billion for 2023 so that's the way, mike, this company is going to be judged.

by the way go back and look at the longer term. it's not a pretty picture. >> absolutely not. there is a evaluation gap with verizon. so this would, you know, with at&t being pretty steep discount obviously, all of those directed at, you know, theoretically trying to close that but p.e. and all the rest of it. so this is part of that project. we'll have a bit more as we watch that, morgan. >> we will in the meantime, when we return, the banking sector down almost double digits since the beginning of the russia/ukraine conflict what to expect next from that group. we're on track for a positive open this morning you've heard us say that with all the major averages up, the dow poised to open about 200 insq mo "uawk on the street" straight ahead how? they have a better finance system than we do.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." nbc news correspondent is on the ground in ukraine with the latest ali? >> reporter: hi, there hi there yesterday vladimir putin said that, you know, some advances have been made in negotiations with ukrainians. here on the ground it's very hard to see that in the early hours of this morning, the russians widened their campaign they started targeting fresh

cities they hit central city this morning. that's central stronghold. it's the first time they have hit that city. authorities there said that a shoe factory and apartment building and kindergarten were targeted with reports of one casualty further out west, they hit the city of lunsk. they were hit at the beginning the war. they haven't bin hit this far west since the early hours of this morning there were two airports in both cities, which also had military facilities in them that's why we believe they were targeted where we are in lviv, air raid sirens went off, that's the closest west any bombing has been going on. there's concern lviv may get targeted it's the closest city to the west it's the only airport with the mill military facility that hasn't

been targeted during the conflict of course, you know, the hard-hit places like kharkiv, constantly being pounded the mayor of kharkiv said in one day, it had been shelled 89 times and 49 schools had been destroyed in that city so it's a humanitarian disaster there as well as places like mario pal something like 400,000 people are essentially being kept hostage there nothing is going in and nothing is going out they were trying to establish some safe zones. humanitarian routes to get people out >> certainly ali, thank you very much speaking of the russia/ukraine conflict. the financial sector down double digits joining us now is erika.

good morning at the same time bond markets willing to price in several fed rate hikes, which in theory will benefit this group so do you think the banks, the stocks are also priced for that scenario is there an opportunity there. >> good morning, by the way. i think the banks are oversold here at the end of the day, if we can avoid a recession in the u.s., even though we have higher gas prices, i think the banks are so clear. at the end of the day, there's really, you know, factors. second, if you look, you know, the banks are seeing pretty good loan growth across the board from the end of the year.

>> we're seeing a little bit of unsettled action in the credit markets in the public credit markets. does it not mean that, you know, banks will feel a little bit of a pressure on the credit side, especially if the economy slows down >> that's a good question. you know, let's dissect that in a couple of parts. number one, clearly, higher gas prices, our concern is the lower -- so, again, even if we avoid a full-scale recession that we would see credit card charge option normalizing. it would hit earnings power. but at the end of the day, i think that banks because they were so heavily regulated and derisk so much out of the kbloebl financial crisis i don't think the corporate credit quality is something to be worried about now if we could avoid a full scale recession in the u.s., i think that the debt service coverage at the banks would witt stand

250 basis points higher short range. >> erika, it's morgan. take a step back as we're talkin talking about payersing slowing -- you're seeing the rick of recession rise what are the key metrics you would be watching for? especially in the coming weeks as we get to earnings to sort of know from the banks seen as early indicators whether we are moving closer to a recession. >> yeah. a couple of things number one, we're seeing loan growth and big question for the banks is, you know, is that for capital, inventory, or similar to some of the draws we saw during the pandemic. it's starting to feel a little bit nervous about the economy. in terms of the banks themselves, we would, of course, look at early stage delinquencies, particularly

hard again, you know, higher gas prices are going to hit the consumer first that's something we should watch. >> and we will erika, thank you very much banks set to open about 1% this morning. thanks coming up, a rough morning for shares of rivian the ev maker's results and outlook are taking toll on the stock. it's not the first day it looked like of late l t the story when "squawk on the street" returns 'r max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors the garcia's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized. hey john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. (vo) verizon unlimited is going ultra!!!! now our best plan ever, gives you more than ever!

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shares of rivian are going to be down sharply it would appear in the premarket. at least you can see it's the case the electric vehicle maker posting a wider than expected loss, cutting the production targets and citing supply chain disruptions as one of the reasons why. phil lebeau has been following it all along is joining us now >> hey, david. when you look at the outlook for 2022, it's clear it's a company they have great ambitions and there's a lot of optimism long-term but they're going to struggle in terms of ramping production this year building just 25,000 vehicles. they have the kpachlt for 50,000 vehicles when you look at analyst commentary about supply chain issues, it's clear the analysts are bringing down their estimates. we're seeing this this morning writing supply chain taking rivian off road in 2022. but still moving forward

wells fargo said market reality sets in after riveting start remember how hot they were when the ipo happened and baird writing growing up during a supply chain crisis here is the ceo of rivian talking about those challenges during the conference call last night. >> it varies including covid-related delays and semiconductor allocations. we're working with the constrained suppliers to identify component challenges early so we can support the supplier and develop alternative solutions, if needed. >> it's not just the supply of certain commodities, et. cetera, it's the price and when you look at nickel and we've talked about this at length, guys, nickel continues to be close to a record high they suspended trading earlier this week at the london metals

exchange rivian is looking what they can do to adjust their production of battery cells. to that end, if you look at shares of rivian, they'll name a coo next week. they are also working on using lithium-ion iron phosphate battery cells. why? those battery cells do not need nickel yes, those would be in standard packs and the range is not as great. the charge time not as fast as nickel in the battery cell, but r.j. said during the call, we have to diversify. we cannot be beholden to one type of commodity. if we can deverse if i away from nickel, that's what they plan on doing. >> fuel efficiency back to earlier in the week we were having a conversation about your great interview with gm's ceo mary barra the company has been able to secure some of the key supplies. the winners and losers we're seeing based on scale

>>well, we'll see the winners and losers over the next couple of years certainly the industry, as a whole, is not going to be meeting the expectations that have been set out there. [ applause ] >> there's the opening bell. take a look at cnbc. and developing treatments. all right, mike. been a volatile week we start off strongly here it's no guarantee that we're going to end strongly, of course, when you're still on the air. >> yeah. >> yeah. that's a dicey situation, at this point you know, you have been able to see some signs that the fever in

the market is moderating just a little bit. i mentioned earlier, you know, crude is still elevated but not racing to new highs every day. the volatility index yesterday was very much an anomaly the market was down and the vix was down, too. when it's over 30 you need huge daily swings for it to keep elevated it is seeming as if people have done a lot of selling and hedging. no confidence we're ready to break out because of the issues. i mentioned the bond market for a 2% yield on the 10 year. and some people feel as if it'll, you know, at least restrain evaluations of equities given the fact it is happening as the economy is slow as we try to see whether the lows we've hit and keep in mind we've been meeting three distinct lows this round of krexz late january, february, andearlier this week and so, you know, is the market

as i've been asking all week bending or about to break? >> such a good question. we don't have the answer to that taking a look at the major averages this morning. everything is trading higher we are now poised to transports and the russell 2,000 are the only 2,000 are the only ones poised to end the week higher. everything else in the red for the week all the sectors in the s&p are higher except for energy it's being lead by financials and tech and consumer discretionary. mike, to your point, it's putin comments about certain positive developments in talks with kyiv this morning that are seeming to be adding a little bit of the lift here. we have to take it with a grain of salt. it's been the experience of not only the world and officials but investors over the last couple of weeks if you want to know what is going on in ukraine and want to know what russia is doing, follow the intelligence.

follow things like satellite images and the declassified information that are coming out of the u.s. and other western allies right now to really know what is happening on the ground versus the rhetoric that is coming from putin, which i should note, we got the comments something like an hour after critical comments from china which we know is key to russia being able to do what it's doing now. >> yeah. i'll come back to you, morgan. you spent a lot of time this week at a important defense-related conference typically at the conferences, there's opportunities to talk to people on backgrounds not on camera i'm curious if you can share the broader thoughts of those people you spoke with. >> yeah. it's another side. sister more of the deference and military and intelligence side of things. i was at the conference earlier this week and there was not a single person i didn't speak to that didn't tell me that we just don't yet know how this conflict

in ukraine is going to end whether it was on camera or off camera everyone i spoke to, these were senior level officials basically warning that the concern here is that we could see things get much worse. much nastier much uglier and hope it doesn't happen based on the way they have behaved in the past, it's a likely scenario. if that's the case, the key question, mike, will be what is priced into the market we've had so many people come on and said this could end quickly or geopolitics could be a blimp on the radar you take that and factor into the broader conversation we've been having and how central banks will have to respond and everything else. we have to think there's a lot of risk not potentially priced in you have analysts in the last couple of days coming out with notes saying it's time to think about nuclear war scenarios.

>> yeah. it is. i think that's why for the most part over the last few weeks, the market has been fixated on the potential risk or at least the wide range of potential outcomes that include a lot of those adverse risks. history says and people repeat it constantly geopolitical shocks and conflict tend not to be the lasting drivers of what happens in the markets the issue here, partly, is that all the things we're worried about coming into the year, you know, growth stocks were too expensive, bond yields maybe we'll be going up. financial tightening from the fed. slow down in the economy stubborn inflation all of them have essentially been exacerbated by the invasion of ukraine it's about push in the direction we're afraid to be going rather than about something new ultimately things get

discounted tftsz like six months after the war. it's not as if you see things resolving before the market gets -- moves on to something else there was enough cross currents h earnings estimates could have vulnerability. >> without a doubt i didn't expect to hear the battle of midway. >> yeah. >> a story worth revisiting today. alibaba shares were down dramatically a number in the u.s. were down young china, as well you can see alibaba not seeing any rebound. we're got the first five companies that were named under the delisting process under the holding foreign companies accountable act. it's something adopted in 2020

also, make sure they actually had access to their auditors it's a process one that is just beginning it's certainly giving investors pause. and, you know, there's a lot of -- this guy is on a lot of big chinese companies. a lot of them big road names maybe not so much anymore. even separa even many of these things have been pressure under some time given changes in china given the terms of the regulatory requirements of the companies but no real ebound

we'll continue to monitor market developments, as well. you'll get added to the list if you're one of the companies. >> yeah. i think it's a legitimate question to really ask given the shareholder base they have and that -- those shareholder's abilities to own the stock wherever they are listed at what point does the absence of the u.s. listing essentially get discounted in the evaluations? you mentioned, i mean, so much else going on in terms of, you know, china's own treatment of companies and what is happening there in terms of disengagement with the rest of the world and different blocks and all the rest but it is really fascinating there seems tob no real -- alibaba is eight-year lows or something. >> yeah. keep an eye on sonk soft bank's shares they own 25% of alibaba.

>> right there's a look at softbank now it reflects the fall in alibaba, as well. oracle shares are down 2.5%. i don't know if you've had a chance to review the quarter at all. i'm looking at it here it basically said it was an in line quarter revenue accelerated. but, you know, not exactly enthusiastic. >> no doubt. it's interesting because it's a disliked stock on the street tech analysts tend not to love value legacy type names. that's the case with oracle. it's inexpensive you know, the question is, can the transformation on the growing parts of enterprise software in the cloud. and, you know, overtake the

mature stuff it has ginn a little bit old tech had the nice run in the later part of 2021 now it's kind of trading a discount to the market it's sort of a slow and steady story. you can put hpe and ibm in that category, as well. there's a lot of skepticism they can outmaneuver the newer competitors. >> yeah. it's worth noting they did see the drop in net income they blamed that loss on the tumbling stock price on a couple of companies they are invested in that have sold off pretty aggressively and it raises the question because you do have a lot of these companies across a number of industries that are investors in some of these newer speculative tech, if you want to call it, companies and we've seen those shares go up so dramatically in general across those parts of the market you have to wonder if it'll create more noise for other companies in a couple of weeks

david, you mentioned in the fact we're at investor day season this month i want to highlight another name that had an investor day yesterday. that is general electric talked about a celebration that is remaining on track over the next two years i asked ceo and chairman larry colt about what made him feel confident to reiterate 2022 guidance especially given the comments we saw couple of weeks ago around supply chain issues. here is what he had to say. >> we've got tremendous tail winds in a number of our businesses, particularly in aviation we increased our outlook for our after market business this year. we know we have supply chain issues to work through in health care we're doing it we certainly could do without the headlines the last couple of weeks. but over the last two years, the

team built a lot of capability certainly demonstrated an abundance of resilience. we think that continues over the course of 2022 given what we know today. >> and, of course, ge is one of the many companies we've seen this week that has or the last two weeks, really, that seven day and halting their operations in russia and where russia is concerned. the aviation comments, david, in particular, got my attention very similar to some of the commentary we heard last week from honey well's ceo and chairman even though there seems to be some concerns and uncertainties about how russia/ukraine will play out for commercial aviation and aerospace companies and we've seen it in some of the stocks and how they have traded. boeing earlier this week, for example. there seems to be a sense as we emerge from the pandemic that there is a recovery input and it'll accelerate. >> yeah. interesting to see all of those names and hear from him, as

well morgan, you mentioned, of course, as well in terms of oracle some of the equity investments. come back to rivian. foord and amazon -- stock down about 5% amazon long-term still a blip for them in terms of the overall size of the investment versus their market cap. january of last year it did a round of funding at 27.5 billion it was according to cnbc.com last july it did another round bridging the total cash to $10.5. we didn't get the number on the evaluation it wasenough.

>> that was $100 billion market cap. >> yeah. $18 billion in cash including restricted cash now. more than half the market cap is cash to your point they have the ability to keep losing billions of dollars a year. they're doing it right now. >> yeah.

we'll get over to bob. >> we're up. that's nice to see it's very tentative. frankly, traders have lost so much money this week it's been so choppy and difficult to trade none the less we're up the main development this week is the topping out of of the energy complex and the materials/metals cop plekts. most of the energy and metal stocks topped out earlier in the week and continuing to show signs of being top industrials 0 a bit on the flat side banks have been flat for the week i think a big development is the consumer staples i want to show you the material stocks because when i say topee i mean most of the highs were earlier in the week. cf industries, mosaic, free

port most of these energy stocks are now flat for the week. believe or not, you think heavens they must be up enormously but they're not. how much farther can you push them the estimatings for earnings are going to go up they go way up it's a big winner in the earnings season. but the traders are very well aware of that fact they have pushed the prices up pretty far meantime, i've been emphasizing how rough it's been for consumer staples. a lot of these companies, most of them get about 40% of their revenues inside the united states they have big exposure to europe you think it's defensive counter intuitively growth is a major problem for europe speaking of growth, i think it's important that goldman is trying to get out ahead of everybody by lower their 2022 gdp estimates

1.75 now i think the street is two and a half they have higher agricultural prices and drags on growth higher rates and lower consumer sentiments are trying to get out ahead of this. we haven't seen the earnings come down. we're in the quiet period. the analysts are not moving because we're not through the quarter. they're waiting for the ceos to talk that's going to happen in the next few weeks you'll see oil earnings estimates go up. materials go way up. you'll see downward earnings provisions and consumer staples and global industrials and some tech names, as well. trader sentiment is awful. active traders are getting killed because you can't trade this market. you can't make money when you get 70 point swings on the s&p 500 in the headline in the middle of the day. it's difficult one simple way is the aaii

it's a sentiment for average retail investors not necessarily robinhood types but older retail investors 24% bullish this week. historic average is close to 40%. 46% are bearish. it's very bearish. so bottom line here, david, nobody is making any money now because you're a slave to the headlines. everybody is looking for signs, of course, for stability we were sitting near the lows this week. you can't break below 41.70 or somewhere around that. that was the recent closing lows that's important technical blip at this point. back to you. >> bob, thank you. before we head to break, it's time to give you a bond report take a look how treasuries are faring this morning. you heard mike mention, of course, the one week pretty significant in terms of moving yields you can see we are still over 2%

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. well, the dow industrials average is up about 1% right now. the week is fractionally lower hear the worst performers in the include chip average it's coca-cola and procter & gamble poised down 7%, speaking to multi-national companies and exposure also mcdonald's which closed its doors in russia down 4%. disney and nike tracking losses for the week "squawk on the street" will be right back zplmplts

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in interest payments next week it's unclear whether putin will be unable to pay given the war time sanctions on the country. bond funds with russia exposers are seeing sell-off in bond prices the u.s. dom south island the highest prern percentage in russian debt according to morningstar, the massive sell-off in russian bond prices as ratings actions cuts them deep into junk territory has caused a performance hit for many of these fund the income fund had been outperforming the benchmark, thanks in part to its russian exposure, under performing, down 5% this year the exposure is relatively small. russia has your rows in dominated debt and derivative

exposure a default could mean no recourse for bond holders to get their money back a. hedge fund manager said that the russian bond contract had an unusually minimal protects had never been done with a sanctions country of this size, guys. >> it's so interesting and a lot more there, not to mention the reconcilingnism by which russia is shutting off the reserves coming up, president biden is set to announce actions against russia even more, wwie ll give you live remarks. keep it here keep it here >> is spread equally across the s&p 500, which reduces potential concentration risk and helps keep your portfolio in balance.

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so switch to the network that helps your business do more for less—join the big switch to t-mobile for business today. >> welcome to "squawk on the street". carl has the morning off the new york stock exchange, a half hour into trading also expecting new remarks this hour from president biden where he along with the european union, the g-7 could revoke most

favored nation trading status for russia morgan >> yeah. we are 30 minutes into the trading session. here are our three big movers. d docusign, it's down 21.5% right now. rivian headed lower after results but rapidly recovering off its lows wider than expected losses hitting the stock there. it also cut its delivery targets, forecasting supply chain issues would limit the output in general this year. finally the buy-backs continue applied materials announcing a $6 billion repurchasing plan this morning with a 2% increase in the dividend's 26 cents per share, stocks up 1.5/2%. in general, we're seeing 70s move higher this morning i should note, we are already for the major averages off the morning with the nasdaq dipping in negative territory just a few minutes ago.

>> at least in the early going, a short wide bounce. we are awaiting president biden live from the white house in a few minutes when we expect plans to revoke russia's preferred trade status hi, kayla. >> reporter: hey, mike, from the roosevelt room in just a few moments, president biden is expected to call for most favored nation for trade purposes that will allow congress to add tariffs on every export, it's a largely symbolic move. but it will tighten the screws further on russian economy and g-7 allies are expected to follow suit n. france, eu leaders there re-affirmed moving away from germany's energy and saying gas networks will be linked and saying new measures

are weighed for consumers. while there is fleeting optimism and word sensing a pause in russia's advances for the last 24 hours, the war is far from ending ukraine's air force says russia is trying to enlist belarus into the fight, firing into that country in another suspected false flag attack and russia's defense ministry saying it recruited 16,000 volunteer fighters from syria. in romania, moments ago, vice president kamala harris in a press conference saying vladimir putin is showing no sign of engaging in diplomacy. guys >> kayla, the isolation of russian economy is nothing left but stunning, is there anything along lines you just outlined? >> well, on the nick front, maybe not, david, but a few weeks ago, be every the invasion

took place, there was a lot of discussion within the administration on potential cyber activities or other ways that nato allies could further k kneecap efforts inside russia. those ground to a halt as they watched sanctions take effect. you have to wonder whether if putin is not feeling the financial pain or feels they can withstand that, whether there needs to be escalation on a different front here yesterday, the foreign minister sergei lavrov said when asked about the isolation from the west he said, we don't need the west anymore, suggesting they are okay with that, because they don't want to be dependent on other countries and other multi-national countries going forward in the future. >> in terms of economic levels, it is about europe and what you told us about europe starting to

pair back its supplies of energy from issue over the coming months that is a revenue source it's an economic lever and acceptance from europe is specifically concerned, what is it going to take from the eu to actually get off energy supplies. even if we seen two-thirds cut down this year, what about the other third? >> well, essentially, morgan, the biden administration and european leaders are saying they simply can't do that at this point. part of the proposal put forward to reduce diplomacy on russian energy, a key part of that was filling up the storm reserves in europe to 90%. they've done it about 25%. so they don't have enough energy to keep homes running, electricity going beyond let's call it six weeks at this point storth what european traders

say. so they simply don't have the supply there even getting to the level called for in this proposal that sly reserves every single fall before they enter that cold season, that number is going to rely on getting a lot of russian energy into the continent to try to fill up those reserves. so they need russian energy at this exact moment now more than ever so they they can reach those reserves called for in these proposals and figure out how do we knock it from there. >> yeah, it is a complicated interplay of all those interested thank you very much as we await president biden in a little while. turning back, they've lost a little bounce here the s&p marginally, the nasdaq declining, the dow has a third of a percent gain, joining us, to talk about the economy, fixed income and the fed, it's a

tricky spot. probably more so now than a few weeks ago, obviously, everything going on in the world we have been discussing, creating threats to growth. how does thatplay into what th fed will be doing next week you my >> well, they will have to walk a really fine line they have to live the rate hike because they want to signal they're on top of the inflation story and get it under control they will not want to overdo it, because they don't want to run the risk of invoking the yield curve or causing too much of a drop in expectations about growth they've good this tricky interplay to go through. the watch will be interesting. we'll see where the various fed governors and officials come out in their end point, in particular, in the funds rate and the speed. i think they're in a real mind here conditions have tightened, the

yelled curve is flat the dollar is up, we are moving to a higher market risk environment and yet they tighten policy. >> the market still implicitly believes they have room for rate hikes. the-year note tried i trading about 2.7, above the yield above 2. does that mean there is room to operate for the fed or the market already is more or less resigned to? >> yeah, i think the market is prepared for a couple rate hikes, what you see is the market expects short-term rates to go up and they are almost pricing in a policy mistake that will have to be reversed in a year's time so it doesn't give, though, the fed a lot of room, because unless they're willing to invert the yield curve, which

we all know signals recession down the road, maybe two rate hikes and we're there. so it's going to be a really differently situation. >> kathy, i will ask you a situation that we raised in the last hour, that is where russia-ukraine conflict is concerned, what is priced in here, hoy great of a risk if this goes on much longer than expected >> yeah, i don't think the market has fully discounted the slowdown in economic growth we could see if this lingers a long time we have a long range of estimates in the possible slowdown towards the end of the year it's really tough to price in right now i don't think the market has fully discounted if this drags on, we can continue to see decline in consumer sentiment. a slowdown and on top of continued high inflation that is not a very good economic

outlook. >> no, it isn't. that's not even mentioning the rest of the world, particularly europe, which will suffer a lot more than we are i wonder, is there any in your projections any chance we could see a hyperinflationary environment start to come in >> >> reporter: no, i mean the u.s. ever suffered from hyperinflation like venezuela higher inflation, more persistently high? it's possible, obviously, because of the energy price spaker spike we are seeing not increases the same way i think as we get into the second half, the inflation rate will slow down, maybe with the exception of energy depending on how this all plays out it won't come down enough for the fed to be happy. it might come down from 8%

roughly to around 4%, which would be very good as long as energy is persistently high and the other bake commodities because the sanctions then, we are probably looking at high inflation this year trending down over the next year or two. >> kathy in terms of investment implications with treasury yields moving back to the upside and credit spreads higher, therefore rebuilding nominal yields without there being at least right now a whole lot of stress, does that create value in corporates or 96 i fixed income >> i rank high quality investment corporates. this can be an opportunity you have to be willing to ride out some volatility here we could see spreads widening more, because there is so much uncertainty about the prospects going forward. investors backing off and piling in, backing off, piling in

we will probably see a lot of that volatility. they're looking fairly attractive so if you are willing to ride it out, i think there is an opportunity. i would not be looking at high yield right now. i think if there is more pain to go, emerging markets and high yields is where we would be feeling it >> they certainly would feel it first, kathy, thank you very much, kathy jones of charles schwab as we head to the break, china tech names slumping, new fears of a crackdown, we'll talk, what's got investors selling this morning >> rivian is stuck in first gear we will give you the results la iter this hour finally, trade is in focus president biden to speak in moments. we will break down what trade

rer restrictions can mean and prices we have a big show ahead stay with us do you think any of us will look back in our lives, and regret the things we didn't buy? (camera shutters) or the places we didn't go. ♪ ♪

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pete williams, former president trump's chief trade negotiator as deputy assistant to the president for economics. pete, great to have you back on the show >> thank you, it's good to be here >> put this in context for me, i realize revoking this status would mean the ability to impose or re-impose tariffs does this pack a punch economically speaking or sit more symbolic? >> i think it will have limited impact in some targeted areas. but i do think overall it is probably more symbolic the reason for that is as you know, president biden has already banned imports of russian oil and that's actbout % what we get from russia. less than half of your trade with russia will be affected for certain products it could be significant. platinum, iron, steam, plywood and those are the kind of things

that could be affected here. again, i think russia isn't a massive trade partner of the united states in general so i think the impact will be a little bit muted. >> okay. that's promising to hear in terms of impact on the u.s., which is really my next question for you. we're talking about commodities and a bod-based basket of commodities that have seen major price spikes contributing to inflation is just how much could this create collateral damage where that pricing is concerned for the u.s. or our other allies >> right, well, it's certainly not going to help. i think as you've pointed out, we are in a pretty extreme inflationary environment we have seen numbers we haven't seen in roughly 40 years but, look, i don't see this as, you know, being a massive tipping point one way or another. i think, look, on these

commodities, we are waiting the details. because as i understand it, commerce is going to give the president pretty broad flexibility on how he raises these tariffs. i think the general expectations we have is the average tariff applies to russia is going to go from 3% to about 20% which for some could be significant. for others, it probably won't be >> quick, when these measures are imposed, do we already know what standard might be used to lift them again, to essentially loosen up and unwind these restrictions or do we just have to figure that out as we go? >> yeah, i don't know whether they're going to put anything in the legislation that specifies that you know, this is an ongoing negotiation on the hill. you know, both the senate and the house, republicans, democrats, are trying to figure out the specifics. it could put in a standard and say, you know, if there is a some sort of negotiated outcome between russia and ukraine, the

president can roll it back but it's too early to know at this point we just don't have that detail quite yet. >> are you surprised that the swiftness with which u.s. and actually other companies around the world have decided to severe their relations with the russian economy? >> yeah. i mean, i guess if you would have said three weeks ago, it would play out like this i would have said, wow, i am really surprised how quickly the western internationals have come together for a falling out i think at this point we're a little desensitized to it. because almost every day there is more and more around we're at a point where it almost does feel like there is very little that is off limits in terms of decoupling the economic relationship. so again, if you asked a few weeks ago, i'd say not today, we've become a little desensitized to it i want to make a broader point,

which i do think the administration does deserve some credit here. i have been critical of a lot of their trade policies, but they have rallied the international community and you do see the sort of joint action on sanctions and trade in a way we haven't seen for many years. i do hope that that has positive assets, a little of a silver lining in an otherwise terrible situation. >> yeah, the journal today, the "wall street journal" has a story focusing on russia under the trump administration specifically to china, saying american policy for nearly 30 years has sort of changed in terms of this free trade idea we had, signaling a future where nations and companies shift away with adversaries and focus more on like-minded partners. do you think that's likely and true >> i do. i think that is the trend we are going in i think, obviously, it's impossible to answer that question without invoking china.

right. i think the western world sees russia, they see china, they see that they have a different set of values than we do, especially from a deposit level from the government level, they want to go in a different direction. but i think that some of our old models of you know trying to set rules with russia and with china are really struggling. so we need to find other ways to work with more like-minded allies and, obviously, the g-7 is what we are talking about today. they are looking at joint action i think at some point people can look at alternative trade options. >> certainly, we are starting to see take route after a number of years, nurturing and re-assuring trend where things like manufacturing are concerned, it kind of raises this big debate topic about deglobalization as an inherently inflationary

dynamic. fine aim, i want to go back to the sanctions, specifically where russia is concerned. we seen sanctions leveled against russia it raises the questions between that and the relocation of this trade status today have we ever actually seen financial sanctions or policies like this be able to stop what is essentially a dictator from waging a war on a country before >> yeah, that's a good point look, it clearly has not prevented russia from moving forward. i think that's unfortunate i think the objective is that over time it really starts to take a toll and it makes this course unsustainable for russia. that's clearly the goal here but i think, you know, in history, sanctions haven't mattered absolutely they have, in isolating countries and making it more difficult for them to spread whatever activities that

they're engaged in look, the jury is still out on this stuff i think it's historically strong, it's historically coordinated. is it really going to change the dynamic? i don't know yet we can all hope that it does >> we certainly do thank you for joining us today great to fet your insights >> thank you. well, didi shares plunging, along with the rest tofhe tech sector we will break down why after the break. don't go away. >> you're a one-man stitchwork master.

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. welcome back it's now time for etf's filing we are taking a look at the crane shares china etf ticket kweb. it's down 6% it's a tough week. the kweb down 15 almost 16% now week-to-date tracking for its fourth straight weekly drop. now 70% down from its highs for the year the components themselves haven't fared any better, ali baba and baidu have been cut if

half jd.com is not far behind, an sec crackdown not to mention ongoing regulatory scrutiny, itself, eunice yoon is live from beijing with that story. >> reporter: thanks, morgan, dual-listed tech names got hammered out here, sentiment did perk up after a local news service associated with the state's back times, reported that chinese and u.s. regulators were having audits and those conversations were moving relatively smoothly, the paper said and a consensus would be reached soon the sec earlier named five u.s.f listed chinese companies and said these companies could potentially be delisted if they the not present information and access to their audit documents.

those five companies did respond with varying degrees of commitment to staying in the united states. beijing says it looks forward to maintaining trading on the nasdaq acm says it's committed to meeting sec requirements zai labs said it would find an accounting if i remember that satisfies the audit and hutchmed said it would evaluate all strategic options and yum china said it may have to delist from the stock exchange in early 2024 they identified 273 companies that were at risk and hadn't disclosed any of the names the u.s. wants full access to the books of chinese companies however, beijing doesn't allow foreign inspections by local accounting firms even so, china securities regulator had said it's had positive progress, it said, with the sec.

that was posted on its social media count, sentiment towards tech is still quite shaky, though this is after another report by about didi global that said that didi global had shelved its plans for its hong kong ipo because it's fallen short, according to that report, for a chinese cybersecurity review the results of that review are supposed to come out in a matter of weeks but didi has not commented on those reports. morgan >> i'll take it, eunice. yeah, listen, i was reporting on this yesterday, as you well know, and wrapped up so well for us just now. the loss, ali baba down again here by almost 5%. didi, though, is just incredible you watched it from the very early stage. it went public it was a few days later when we learned about all those objections from chinese regulators hard to imagine, an $18 stock

now below $2. >> reporter: yeah. no, and i think that's one of the reasons why we are seeing it tumble so much now is that from that point and then until now the feeling around didi is that it's being targeted. it's being made an example of. it's being punished and that that sentiment continues to stay the, the belief right now is that the app is still not gentleman to be available here that company could still be punished with that service security review. there is a lot of activity about didi and a hope that didi offers other tech companies that didi isn't going to be more of an outlier as opposed to the example for every single tech firm here. >> and eunice, on the sec demand and this idea of these

u.s.-listed companies attempting to comply, are there not work-arounds, in other words, are there not audit firms that would be able to allow them to keep the new york listing? >> reporter: i think it's still up in the air right now. i mean, there are the chinese have been insisting local accounting firms be used emt then they don't want the inspections of these local accounting first, for quite some time, they believe that these are almost like state secrets that these are national security reasons, given the political tensions right now between the u.s. and china, it doesn't seem as though that priority that beijing has of keeping its national security, you know, a priority is really going to change much. if anything, it's going to get hardened >> right it does seem that's the way the market views it anyway, thank

you so much. appreciate that. we do now have president biden about to make his remarks. >> we have spoken for some time with president zelenskyy of ukraine. i told him as i have each and every time we've spoken the united states stands with the people of ukraine as they bravely fight to defend their country and they are doing that. as putin continues his merciless assault on the united states and our allies and partners continues to work in lockstep to ramp up the economic tensions on putin and furtherize late russia on a stage together with nato allies in the g-7, canada, france, germany, italy, japan, united kingdom as well a it is european union, we're going to jointly announce several more stems to squeeze putin and hold him more accountable for his aggression against ukraine. i want to speak to a few of those points today

first, each of our nations will deny most favored status to russia the most favored nation status designation means two countries have agreed to trade with each other under the best possible terms, low tariffs, few par years and trade and the highest possible in port allowed in the united states we call this permanent normal trade relations, pntr. it's the same thing. revoking pntr for russia is going to make it harder for russia to do business with the united states and doing it in unison with other nations to make up half of the global economy will be another crushing blow to the adepression of an economy suffering badly from our sanctions. i want to thank speaker pelosi and leader mccarthy and leaders schumer and mcconnell representatives neil and brady for a bipartisan leadership on this in the congress i would like to offer a special thanks to speaker pelosi who has been a strong advocate for

revoking pntr and who agree to hold off on that in the house until i can line up all of our keyallies to keep us in complete unison. unity among our allies is critically important as you all know, from my perspective at least. many issues divide us. but standing for democracy in ukraine, pushing russia's aggression should not be one of those issues, the free world is coming together to confront putin. our two parties here at home are leading the way, with that bipartisan cooperation, i am looking forward to signing into law the bill revoking pntr which is again most people think of it as most favored nation status we are also taking a further step of banning imports of goods from several 60 sectors on the russian economy, seafood, vodka and diamonds we will continue to squeeze putin. the g-7 will seek to deny them from borrowing from

international monetary fund and the world bank putin is an aggressor. he is the aggressor. and putin must pay the price he cannot pursue a war that threatens the very foundations, which he is do, the foundation of international peace and stability and ask for financial help from the international community. the g-7 is also sting up pressure on corrupt russian billionaires we are adding new names to the list of oligarchs and their families that we are targeting we are increasing coordination among the g-7 countries to target and capture their ill-begotten gains they support putin they steal from the russian people they seek to hide their money in our countries. they're a part of that autocracy that exists in moscow and must share in the sanctions while we are going after their

yachts and vacation homes worth hundreds of millions of dollars, we will make it harder to buy high end products manufactured in our country we are bank exports of luxury goods to russia. the latest steps we are taking but they're not the last steps we will take as i said, at the beginning of all these steps, we will hit putin harder, the united states and our closest allies and partners are acting in unison, the totaltality of our sanctions and export controls is crushing to the russian economy the ruble lost half its value. they tell me it takes about 200 rubles to equal $1 these day moscow stock exchange has been closed two weeks they know the moment it opens it will probably collapse yet i'd rating agencies downgraded russia's government to junk status its economy to junk status a list of international corporations in russia is

growing by the day, they're leaving. we are continueing to close corporation with allies and partners to make sure the close cooperation we continue to have. the you caneian people are able to defend their own nation the united states has sent more than $1 billion in security systems to ukraine over the last year, including anti-armor and capabilities, taking up tanks and planes with helicopters, with new shipments arriving every day. we the united states are also facilitating significant shipments of security systems from our allies and part iners to ukraine and the humanitarian front, we are working closely with the u.n. to support the people of ukraine who have been displaced by the violence in ukraine. we are providing tens of thousands of tons of human supply or humanitarian supplies, food, water, medicines, coming via truck and train every single day. yesterday in poland, vice

president horiarris announcedan additional $350 million in support. that brings the total humanitarian to $107 million in two weeks. we have joined this effort with more than 30 other countries from providing hundreds of millions more. and last night, through the great credit congress passed the bipartisan spending bill, that included an additional $13.6 billion in new assistance to the ukrainian people i look forward to signing that immediately. i also want to be clear, though, we will make sure ukraine has weapons to defend against an invading russian force we will send money and food and aid to save the ukrainian people and i will welcome ukrainian refugees we should welcome theme e them here with open arms if they need access and we will provide more support for ukraine. we will continue to stand together with our allies in

europe and send an unmistakable message. we will defend every single inch of nato territory with the full might of the united and galvanized nato. we will not fight a war against russia in ukraine. the direct confrontation between nato and russia is world war iii. something we must strive to prevent. but we already know putin's war against ukraine will never be a victory. he hoped to dominate ukraine without a fight. he failed. he hoped to fractureeuropean resolve. he famed he helped to weaken the trans-atlantic alliance. he failed. he hoped to split apart american democracy in terms of our positions. he failed. the american people are united the world is united and we stand with the people of ukraine we will not let autocrats and would be emperors dictate the direction of the world democracies arising to meet this moment, rallying the world to

the side of peace and side of security we are showing our strength and we will not falter god bless all of you god bless ukraine and god pbles our troops >> reporter: you said you would not create a false slide using them, will the u.s. have a military response if putin launches a chemical weapons attack >> i will not speak about the intelligence, but russia will pay a severe price if they use chemical weapons all right. that is president biden at the white house just announcing the revoking of the most favored nations status for russia alongside allies bank import of goods from certain sectors, vodka, diamonds and banning the export of luxury goods to

russia,took talking about sending aid and we will not fight a war against russia that would essentially be world war ii and something we must strive to prevent and quote democracies are rising to meet this moment. i'm just going to get a quick check on the markets it is a mixed picture. the nasdaq continues to trade a little bit lower, mike, david. but the s&p is now flat, 42.62 the dow up about half a percent right now. as we did just get to those comments from president biden and we continue to see this russia-ukraine conflict play out and the u.s. and it allies impose economic meenls to try and counter that kayla tausche is in d.c. she brings us the latest around those comments we did just hear from the president kayla. >> reporter: well, morgan, this is an increment am and

multi-pronged approach to continue tightening screws you mentioned a few tumt banning seafood, diamonds and video car, calling on congress to revoke the most favored status. saying the world will limit russia's ability to borrow from the monetary fund and world bank and increasing sanctions placed on oligarchs the president perhaps most importantly said at the very end of that, when he was asked about russia's potential use of chemical weapons he said russia would pay a severe price, but notably stopping short of calling it a red line or outlining what would happen in that case. throughout this week, white house officials have repeatedly warned that russia could be on the brink of using chemical, nuclear or biological weapons as it seeks to move into the next phase of the fight as the ground offensive has been stalled we have those comments from putin earlier today that sparked a fleeting rally in the markets.

i think what you have heard from vice president harris and president zelenskyy on twitter talking about the subsequent conversation he had with president biden, they are talking about a very stark reality on the ground in ukraine with a motivated putin who has not yet showed signs of backing down or willing to engage in diplomacy. president biden said a coordinated announcement will be coming later today with the g-7 allies we will see if there is anything more of stance substance when we go ahead it. >> we've seen the economic response and we have seen military response in the form of support to have our allies in the region and, of course, equipment and aid going into ukraine with more expected we signed the omnibus bill with money for ukraine. the capital weapons piece of this puzzle, which would be very scary and worrisome, a u.s. army

spokesman spoke to me earlier in the week to your point, the fact that he basically said we're not going to enter a war, a conflict directly with russia, but did say there would be a severe price for russia if that were to be used. do we have any sort of sense on what some of these other responses could be, if not military >> reporter: we don't know just yet what that would be i think it depends on what president putin and russia decides to do from here. we heard from the very beginning of this situation, the day before the invasion was launched, the secretary of state antony blinken warning that chemical weapons were in the card for russia. that it was something u.s. intelligence picked up, it could be an option for putin, if he chose to do that, including using a false flag operation and suggesting it was, in fact, ukraine that was using the chemical weapons so it's something the administration has been sounding a louder alarm about just this

week and what sort of response that would be warned from the west my sense is that's still under discussion >> kayla, thank you, kayla tausche. let's bring in steve leishman as well into the conversation steve, you may not know this living in russia, i remember speaking russian at a desk across times sometimes have you something of an understanding of the politics and the economy, particularly given the time period you were there, steve, as well. >> yeah. >> they are under significant pressure in that economy right now. >> yeah. you know, they closed mcdonald's, that means they go backing to 1990 the watershed moment of '99. what i have been trying to figure out is how this ukraine tragedy plays out, it looks like vladimir putin, which nobody has experience with and assumes there is one, estimates from a brutal leader who has lost his mind to one who is geopolitically cold and calculated

i thought we'd list the calculus he has going here. obviously, a superior military force. you heard president biden talk about western military restraint. there is some economic pain happening in the west as a result no obvious threat to his rule. kayla was talking about chemical weapons and bombing. that's not the only thing going on there are factors pressuring putin. this is a military fiasco. he has no obvious end game other than massive occupation. there are extreme sanctions. a potential economic collapse that he is looking down and some domestic opposition, surprising him, china so far is ambivalent. it's impossible to know if any of these pressures led him to a place, where he is willing to back off his goals of ukraine into a greater russian state he stated for a long time for now. but the allies, we were talking about this with santoli earlier, they can scale back or removing

sanctions, it can be too early for that it's unclear what measures of retreat putin would have to do that would gain sanctions other than total withdrawal so i think those are the things that the way the market is trying to price this out, mike >> yeah. yes, steve i got a quick question come back in terms of the state of the russian economy. it's difficult to understand minute-by-minute he doesn't having a says to most of his reserves, he thought he would stockpile $630 billion the economy, itself, western companies have pulled out en masse and places where exxon mobile has been operating, there is a certain level of expertise. it's not clear russians will maintain production at a level previously give me a take, what does russia look like in three months if this keeps up? >> it's three months, three years and ten years is the way i

am thinking about this, if these sanctions hang around. i think you make a good point, what's happened is russian oil production moved from the south where reserves are easier to get at to the north where they definitely appear to have needed western help and western technology david, when i arrived there in early 1992, pardon me, russia was 40 years behind. its industry was 40 years behind the west in some places, maybe 30s in others, decades, right now, it's probably caught up so while you exclude russians from importing western technology, that's something that takes place over a very long time. the immediate impact, you have about a 50% depreciation of the ruble. lack of access to western goods and by the way, the russians import a on the of german equipment that's vital to their industry so what i've seen are estimates of double digit declines in its growth this year i've seen inflation as high as

20%. back to the bad old days of the fall of the soviet union and shock therapy. >> steve leishman, thank you it's important we get your insights there we will take a quick break first a look at the major averages on this final day of trading for the week it's a really mixed picture. the dow is up a half a percent the nasdaq is down fractionally. the s&p trading near the flat line four losses for all three of those major averages, though stay with us ppening across the . small businesses are fed up with big bills and 5g maps that are mostly gaps— they're switching to t-mobile for business and getting more 5g bars in more places. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ultimate business plan... ...for the lowest price ever. plus, choose from the latest 5g smartphones— like a free samsung galaxy s22. so switch to the network that helps your business do more

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suppliers of neon, which produce about half the world's supply announcing today they're halting their operations due to the russian invasion and for a semi conductor industry already grappling with shorter images and higher costs, it can mean a lot more ahead, christina joins us with more ahead. >> reporter: that means more semi conductor manufacturing and a squeeze on critical gas neon worsens. a critical neon supplies comes from ukraine and two major

producers have shout down production this actually cast a cloud on chip production as semi conductor neon has specifics specification to avoid chip failure. however, one analyst tells me several chip firms have been preparing like asml and have at least 12 months supply you also have united microelectronics based in taiwan, a huge chip region and said they had access to alternative supplies keep in mind the neo market is tiny in scale around $50 million a year so pricing won't be a massive margin issue just yet. it will be more of a potential supply issue after crimea's annexation in 2014, chip producers

diversified. that should weaken the blow to manufacturers in the near term >> christina, thank you. well, we're keeping an eye on rivian shares as well, this morning. they are down well let's call it 62% since the beginning of the year, of course about 50% from the ipo price of 78 and down further as a result of fourth quarter earnings they saw a modest increase in vehicle products but there were, you saw from christina as well, supply chain concerns there, too, joining us, the stock as well as fargo's colin lane, give me your take on this quarter, particularly supply chain issues they cited for lo lower-than-expected production. >> it's fairly in line, it's q1 with the issue and it's actually really their guidance for the year i think the quarter, itself, was okay, pretty much as expected. we have deliveries in

production i think from an outlook perspective production for the full year lower than expected. they expected 35 thousand, they're expected 25 thousand the losses are worse they're conassessing 3 billion in eb that ebitda losses. the production is ramping slower they're blaming a lot of the supply chain also from the cost side, they're getting squeezed here by the massive spike we've seen on the battery supply chain, raw materials, things like nickel are very critical and the price has gone vertical at this point. >> what are your expectations? given that guidance you cited from the company, does it feel realistic or are there moving parts on what they will be able to meet in terms of production for this year? >> reporter: i mean it's derisked from what obvious

expectations were. it's a risk and we've seen companies like tesla have gone through similar growing pains as they are launching a platform. so to some degrees it's not too surprising and some of what they say in terms of struggling to get the semi conductor chips and allocation it makes sense everyone is fighting for those chips and a lot have them on their order books. that makes sense, there is a lot of uncertainty in stock. you have to sort of damage control after the pricing actions that they did and customer backlash, it seems like orders are okay. still probably some repair needed there and then you know you have the uncertainty from the market as to how they will manage these costs if they stick. we'll see how the reserve underlying costs are significantly higher >> colin, given the cost pressures, which, of course, apply across the industry and

rivian's recent effort to raise prices on their vehicles and then having to roll them back after a bit of a consumer backlash, does that tell us anything in general about price sensitivity among potential ev buyers or oil is more expensive, meaning the cost of ownership equation still works for them? >> there is a couple parts to that question. from their price increase, they did go back and those people who had existing orders and have been waiting for a while, they will respect the price they originally ordered at. the orders picked up after the order adjustment, the price point does make sense hand ther and they priebl under priced it in the beginning the massive underlying cost increases they need to adjust for. so i think on the pricing side, i think they'll be okay at this very high luxury price point and customers seem to be still ordering it.

the second part of your question was -- >> well, just in general, the price for buyers >> yeah. well, actually we see gas prices have spiked and people see that pain at the pump i think what's kind of the issue underlying and is that with the nickel spike and what that means for battery costs, the economics for auto makers has gotten worse. they were negative now cost parity has gotten further out. we could see more interests as gas spikes in evs. but for the auto makers, i think the pain of selling them has gotten a lot worse once the contracts on nickel and other raw materials have been up like alluminum and cobalt reset over the next year. >> colin, thank you. mike, as we head towards the end of our time here, of course not for yours, viewers get to see you all during the day >> a few more hours to go. >> what will be the focus for

you as you watch how the markets ends this week >> interestingly, it's the narrow trading we lost that early bounce. who knows what is to come, this idea that 23 are not quite as tightly wound in the markets, we had these wild swings, we are coming into a friday with much more indecisive, not dramatic moves, bond market remains in focus. the yield is pushing higher, fed-ex expectations next week venlg we grow largely in response to that >> energy also actually up this morning. a little bit still, morgan, as well. >> yeah, that's right and crude prices turning higher. financial industrials, healthcare, the top performing sectors in the s&p we are going into the weekend and next week, mike, is going to be another potentially big mark-moving week as you just mentioned, because you do have the fed. you also have fed-ex reporting, which i watch, because of their global economic bellwether stat thus. >> yes, fed-ex has been a very depressed stock as we were

talking this week. fed-ex and nike i believe come on the same day. we will see if that's the case as well as the fed as well. >> both are down 2%, meantime, right now. guy,, i hope you have a great weekend. that will do it for us here for "squawk on the street" "tech check" starts now. ♪ >> good friday morning welcome to "tech check "today stocks try to rally headlines out of europe continue to move stocks we have a look at what sectors in tech may be recovering first. plus the more things change, the more they stay the same. liveian and docusign try to coninves