investors wait for an interest rate hike from the fed kind of what do you know what is going on breaking overnight selloff in hong kong as major chinese cities lockdown to combat a covid outbreak. we will go live to beijing. and russia striking a military base near the border with poland prompting a u.s. warning of the full nato response if poland were to be hit. it is monday, march 14th, 2022 right between the anniversary and a birthday "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq

market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and steve liesman we are seeing green arrows dow futures indicated up 400 points n nasr nasdaq up 15 this is coming off the covid front and what is happening in ukraine. if you look at what is happening in the yield market. the ten-year yield trading at $2 2.099% the two-year yield is 1.18%. stocks in hong kong selling off down 5% as investors try to monitor the latest wave of covid infection in china since the end of the lockdown in march of

2020 this is a country that does not have a lot of natural immunity there are questions about how effective their vaccines are we will have more on this in a moment because it is leading to concerns of the supply chain chinese tech stocks with the brunt of the selling alibaba down 10% jd.com down 14%. baidu down 17% and wti was up as high as $130 and change last week. it went down to $103 this morning, it is at the lower levels this morning, $104.12. crude prices are $108.42 so many question s about what i happening with the supply chain. >> i'm trying to see how the cpi is going to pick up.

a move to $130 and change. back down to $104. >> do they follow crude? >> gas prices. >> gas prices will be a little steadier >> little steadier it has been crazy. i don't know they know what the situation is with russia supply. >> after we talk about the covid story. i have what this means for the fed. >> you and me both. let's get to the covid story. major cities are rushing to limit business activity to control the spread of the virus. manufacturing hub shenzhen ordered all non-essential businesses to suspend production or employees work from home for a week reporters say that includes apple's supplier foxconn it is reported 400 confirmed cases. shanghai has converted to online

classes. more than 600 cases have been reported since late february on saturday, officials reaffirmed commitment to the zero covid policy. including strict lockdown measures here we go >> those are the questions i have a hard time believing the numbers if it is 600 cases in a city it is the zero tolerance policy that changed when you look at inflation, a big part of the inflation picture is the supply chain woes stronger demand and supply chain issues if that continues, the fed could look at higher inflation what do they do if it is the supply chain >> i don't know. you still have supply chain hangover from the chinese new year we had one here with the big outbreak we were just getting on the other side of that you have inflation on top of inflation. if you got rid of the idea of

the horrible war in ukraine and the 9.3% unemploymentrate and certainty more was coming down you could see the fed doing 100 basis points at the meeting. it would not be crazy to think right now of a 1% funds rate going to 2 or 2.5 at the end of the year. >> that is not the case. you have the situation in ukraine and the pain >> pain for european countries the possibility all of this ends up reducing aggregate demand high prices end up influencing and hurting growth you have to add that to the uncertainty. powell will move slowly and deliberately my new phrase is they are thinking data and geopolitically dependent. >> joe, you mentioned this before we know what powell is going to do this timie around >> they have to go higher. get started.

it is omicron. i'm looking at it right now. ba.2 >> how effective >> it is less lethal, but more infectious than omicron. >> those are the questions if you look -- when we first had dr. scott gottlieb booked today, i'm not sure what i was going to talk about now you have shenzhen and cases in england again especially in china where they have zero tolerance policy still there. >> what does it mean with an epidemic of ba.2 would be wide widespread >> they are shutting things down that will impact us from the supply picture. tencent has been unscathed now finding out with the journal

reporting that they could face a record fine for violations of not what you think, but chinese central bank regulations by the wechat mobile network. regulators discovered lapses in the compliance with your money laundering rules they facilitated the laundering f for transactions the tencent had been unscathed by china tech crackdown that started in late 2020 no one looks at my activities. they might find evidence of -- >> some? >> gambling. >> perhaps >> shocking. >> i finally got to the point i

was exhausted. >> no mas? >> i can't think about it. i think i can figure it out. if i look at enough stuff, i'll figure it out. >> your bracket picks? >> i started that. >> you mean figuring out gambling >> to actually be up and stay up. >> have you figured out the idea that the guys setting the odds and prices are smarter than you? >> no. still trying >> they are smarter than you >> the thing i figured out, there could be a good and bad team they will get the spread so exact that the teams are completely even. you can have this perception you have iowa playing some no-name. they will put the points to where you are just as likely not going to cover as you are covering there is really no need.

>> great actuarials? >> it is their business. it is the same as investing. it is what do you bring added value analytics to the table what do you know about the team that those guys don't know they don't not know a lot. >> i don't know diddly money line, you bet $5 you win $5.50. you can't do money line. easily it is time for this week's squawk planner we mentioned the fed is in focus this week. tuesday and wednesday is when we hear about the meeting central bank indicated it will raise key interest rate at the end of the two-day meeting it will reveal forecasts for interest rates and inflation and the economy. on the data front, we will get producer price index information tomorrow retail sales and import and

export prices on wednesday housing prices on thursday a light week for earnings. you have fedex on wednesday and thursday. coming up, crude prices pulling back as we were referencing. we will talk about it. energy and food? who needs that in the cpi? >> you're fine without it. >> now you have to watch people don't put a hole in the gas tank everybody is running with that story. gas thieves. fallout from higher gas prices your next uber ride will cost more. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist wealth. where meaningful relationships matter most.

it listens, learns, adapts and anticipates your every need. with intelligence... that feels anything but artificial. the eqs from mercedes-benz. it's the car electric has been waiting for.

as a small business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving with comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. so boost your bottom line by switching today. get the new samsung galaxy s22 series on comcast business mobile and for a limited time save up to $750 on a new samsung device with eligible trade-in. if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest,

fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. high gas prices will increase the cost of the next uber trip. they announced fuel surcharges in response to the gas prices. rides surcharges will cost 45 to 55 cents the surcharges will vary based on distance and gas prices in each state the money will do to the drivers who are responsible for filling their own tanks to give you a

ride or make adr delivery. notably, uber users in new york city won't be subject to the surcs surc surcharge. drivers receive a 5.3% increase to account for higher operating costs. most of the delivery workers use bikes, not cars. >> interesting >> it is don't put in for a surcharge on a bike. the average price of gas in the u.s. fell by a penny from friday's high. $4 $4.33. joining us now is emrita it is confounding to look at daily moves. what is the recent easing from the high levels? that pendulum swing and psychology can drive these

higher than normally with supply and demand so there is settling. what do you think the actual supply/demand dynamics what is that price for oil >> i would say three specific reasons why we sold off. we have seen headlines with the china case counts rising and case counts rising in korea. fears of mobility issues in asia that would be a big reason the second reason is confuse in the market around the impact of sanctions on russian oil production and oil exports loading data which is high frequent data doesn't show ex-ports coming off yet which it isn't meant. a lot of the oil was bought by india and china pre-sanctions. they will load this month. that doesn't mean new oil is

booked we will see a drop off probably from the 20th of this month. not right now. i know a lot of hedge funds are looking at the data and saying there is no impact on the russian oil and that is why they are selling. there is a huge issue with liquidity with intraday moves. we have seen a massive collapse in some ways of credit and liquidity. banks are super cautious a lot of capital tied up in people managing the position because the volatility is high and margins increasing by 32%. that is another reason why people have taken off positions. we have seen prices come off >> the big producer is the s saudis, or whoever, faced with the notion of i like high prices i don't want to increase supply too much when do they decide i'm going to make some hay while the sun is

shin shining? these are great prices when does the domestic production here and when do we turn everything back on and how long does it take? >> i think there is a bit of miss concmisconception of opec. they don't necessarily want prices to be sustaining above $100 that can hurt long-term demand for opec as a group, they see oil in the long-term energy mix and don't want a transition away from oil there is a balance to be struck. high prices do favor that, but not high prices above $100 i want to clarify that the biggest with opec plus is the spare capacity there isn't much in the group. that is why they have been

cautious increasing production when they do increase by 400,000 every month, only half of that is coming online as for the u.s., we are seeing counts go up a bit there are serious concerns aboveground. labor shortages and equipment shortages. that will be one of the biggest headwinds of increasing production sharply despite high prices >> amri ita, what is the story with russian oil getting to market russian oil companies allowing chinese state companies to take oil on letters of credit and then divide it two ways. it arrives by pipeline by one and then the part that comes by ship which is unclear. what is the reality of russian oil getting to market and what does the market think about it >> that's what i was saying at

the start. what the market thinks based on tracking data. that is not showing much movement to your point, oil that comes to europe by pipe will continue those are long-term contracts. oil by ships, nobody is taking oil right now or purchasing it that is over 2 million barrels a day by ship. china and india will take that oil. that is what they are working through. no letters of credit payment in rubles. there is another pipeline from russia to china. that is where you see reports that china is not giving letters of credit, but that oil can continue to flow >> we want that to happen, right? we want china to take that oil which was going to the west because then we can displace

other oil we can get that china was taking >> depends on the objective. if you want maximum pressure on putin, you don't want any oil sales because revenue dries up if you look at it from you don't want oil prices to go up so much you cause a recession, then, yes, you want asia to buy the oil so other oil they are taking gets freed up to come to europe. it will be more costly because you are taking away the efficient way of sending oil and far away and sending long haul barrels. on the molecule basis, it is not huge losses. >> amrita, weigh in on this. we hear the narrative that there are 9,000 permits sitting around they don't choose to drill right now. and other people push back and say there are other permits that are needed that are stuck in red

tape and there's a problem with actual transport once you do drill and those permits are very difficult to get how easy is it to go look and produce more oil on these leases that are supposedly okayed over here it is real easy or do we need to rollback regulation? >> i think longer term there is a case to be made that some regulation may need to be rolled back i think both sides are politicizing it right now. the real issue is rate counts are rising and the challengeis we don't have equipment. if you look at frack crews, we are at 100% utilization. that is the challenge. that is why if produces want, they could increase. having said that, i don't think producers like the narrative coming from the white house which is we need the oil in the short term give it to us now.

we don't want your help in the medium term to bridge the gap and being part of energy transition that is the message they are sending. make us part of the debate make us part of energy transition and we'll talk. that's where the message is getting lost it has been very specific that we need short-term help from you. >> amrita, thank you we see you a lot i think we made you a star because you can answer everything at your own firm you used to be a barclays. i think a contributor role can we offer that? >> you can offer it. i don't know if you can make good and follow through. >> are we in the position to do that >> on your own authority >> i like amrita thanks i appreciate it. founder of energy aspects. when we come back, $4.5 billion of occidental petroleum

wasn't enough for warren buffett. we'll show you how much more berkshire bought last week. and before we head to break, cryptocurrency is trading at $39,000 and change for bitcoin "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire matching your job description. my son romeo has sought counsel with some strategic advisors. they suggest that we marry our fortunes with...the capulets.

blasphemy! fear not. these advisors managed one of the largest mergers in history, creating billions in value. billions? plus, they have experts in global trade. this merger shall be a boon for our spice business. and set a course for growth. here, here! friars, send word at once. yes, m'lord.

blackrock silver is bringing new life to a historic silver district, the second largest in the silver state of nevada. with multiple recent high grade discoveries, blackrock is well underway on the largest silver exploration program in america. blackrock silver. this is the new world of work. each day looks different than the last.

but whatever work becomes, the world works with servicenow. it turns out he wasn't done buying warren buffett added to the occidental petroleum berkshire bought an additional

27 million shares for $1.5 billion on wednesday, thursday and friday last week that gives berkshire 20% of the outstanding shares they have another 84 million more shares. if it were to do that, they are just about on the money, and if they do that, it could increase stake to 20% the stock down by 5% to $55 a share. i literally said what when i read this yesterday. >> you did >> yeah. >> i was ecstatic. >> i was sad. >> i was happy i couldn't believe it. >> he had one of his best years ever tom brady, retirement lasted 40 days. people hate him. a seven-time super bowl champion, there are seven teams

that hate this guy announcing on twitter and instagram that he is still on the field and not in the stands. he will return for the 23rd season last season, the 44-year-old tom brady led the nfl in passing yarjs, touchdowns, pass attempts lost at home in the rams i know about losing to the los angeles rams it happened to some other teams. >> your team >> i don't know why. >> you want to root for the old guy. >> he is not past the ageof prime. not tom brady. >> i didn't like the way he got tossed around in the los angeles game >> that's not his fault. get the offensive line >> i bet they promised him just about anything >> he needs a big line

he needs an offensive line >> i see guys come back and initial idea of maybe i'm done. i'm ready to retire. i should do it i'm afraid maybe you are right. >> he wasn't retiring because -- you heard the stats. >> unbelievable. >> something about retiring when you are on top that would be on top he said lfg. let's f-ing go not liquified. >> i had to look it up. >> i think that's what it means. >> i had to look up btfd btfu sorry. back just back. back up, basically >> up with acouple of tfs if

there. >> tampa is my second favorite team i hope he does well. >> you spent time. >> love tampa. >> you have a lot to be optimistic about >> i hope he comes back. >> i have something to read. >> the top team? >> one i don't want to admit publicly >> they're great now >> who >> buffalo >> giants. >> you went to the university of buffalo. >> born and raised a giants fan. >> i wouldn't want to mention it >> you made me say it. >> sorry >> it's not the jets coming up, a selloff of chinese tech stocks overnight. we'll take you live to beijing next later, we get you ready for the fed meeting and the rsfit rate hike in more than three years. "squawk box" is coming right back >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business

keeping your business connected. so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

good morning welcome back to "squawk box"

live from the nasdaq market center in times square the dow up 360 >> if you were looking at what happened last week, five weeks in a row for the dow s&p and nasdaq with the worst weeks since january. losses are piling up we ended the week with the dow down 10.8% from the all-time high s&p down 12.75%. nasdaq is firmly in bear market territory down 20.78%. these gains this morning could change some of those things. >> the real favorites in the nasdaq, i wish they were only down 20% >> right. >> or the former >> meta. >> facebook. not a lot happening today. they're not far from nato territory. i don't know what that means >> 20 miles from the polish

border those were the missilesthat were launched hitting ukraine. that raises all kinds of things, including the spector on the reports that the russians asked china for help when it comes to the military side of things. maybe weapons supplies >> bringing in middle eastern fighters it is surreal. >> you know what happens with the u.s. reaction function if they have the supply convoy? >> every square inch the convoy was past the border >> what if they hit one? >> on the other side of the border >> do they let it go >> i don't want to think about it. >> becky, i want to think about it i don't know what the market is thinking here. >> i'm surprised to see the futures up 400. >> what does the market think about when these sanctions come off? do they think they're -- we will have tom graham coming up from

the council of foreign relations. we will ask him. the sanctions may not go in the putin goes it is hard to imagine them going away. >> it is hard to imagine putin agreeing to anything >> how about us ever doing business with the guy what is the butcher of ukraine >> is that the day where i saw the piece? get rid of putin and nothing changes. his successor would inherit the same situation >> spoon fed nothing but false information. >> do you believe it as a former russian? >> believe what? >> any of the drivel i can't believe they believe anything >> the internet is not effective. >> this is what surprised me your average soviet person knew whatever they saw on television, the opposite was most certainly

true now, i have a hard time believing. >> it is like cnn here. >> whatever, joe whatever with the situation now that they watch and believe the propaganda, to me, it is what i know about russians. they would always not believe the state. that was a permanent way of doing things i have to say we were so naive, joe. we thought the facts would change everything. there was a news agency called interfax the idea it was not test it would send information with a fax. it would mean the authoritarian state could not reassert itself. that ended up not the case we are watching stocks higher here. that is not the case in china. selloff there overnight as the major cities bring back lockdown measures to try to combat a covid outbreak eunice yoon is joining us live from beijing

e eunice, the cases are just as high as the lockdown of 2020 in march? >> reporter: that is right 9,000 cases so far this year china reported more this year than they have for the entire year of 2021 now the hong kong market closed at the lowest point in six years. that is because of more makeshift testing centers popping up all over the country. the city of shenzhen is in partial lockdown 17.5 million people are now being tested for the third time. the city also had ordered all non-essential businesses to suspend operations for a week. public transportation has been put and travel restricted. apple supplier foxconn has back-up plans to mitigate disrupt

disruption china is fighting what is now becoming its biggest outbreak of covid-19 since the pandemic. other cities are clamping down for example, shanghai shut schools. it is rumored to divert international flights. later this week, 9 million residence where toyota has ordered residents to leave their homes only to get groceries every other day. dongguan in the south halted bus and subway services. also dine-in services. beijing canceled large events and urging residents not to travel shanghai epidemiologists told reporters that majority of cases are stealth omicron. they could see an exponential

rise in cases. the fact we are seeing a surge of cases is having economic implications some economists are concerned about the impact on consumer spending and the economic costs could be 0.8% a lot of people now concerned about not only the disruption to the economy, the chinese economy, but the supply chain. guys >> eunice, the question is lockdowns in those cities until march 20th that's a week. one week to see what happens how are people reacting in places like beijing? you have been through these routines before. are people stocking up on the chance they wake up and can't leave the apartment building >> reporter: yes it is not as though there are lots of hoarding like in hong kong people are watching what is going on in other cities such as

hong kong where there last been an omicron surge that has gotten out of control where there weren't a lot of -- there wasn't a lot of stuff on the store shelves. people are more concerned about that here. not only are people worried about catching omicron and the fact that they are worried about potentially not having the right vaccinations to ward off omicron, but concerned about being locked down and holed up in a building for several days if not longer. there are a lot of people who are nervous over here. >> in terms of pushing back, is there push back when it comes to the idea of zero tolerance is that something people accept and believe is the right way to go >> reporter: what is interesting is there has been more of a conversation about that online it is still vetted and censored.

people are worried about the benefits of covid. the epidemiologist said the chinese based on what we are seeing in hong kong as well as other places that china cannot afford to step away from zero covid. if they step away, they could be overwhelmed and don't have the medical resources for it there has been a tweaking with the zero covid policy. over the weekend, we're hearing more of chinese authorities approving certain things that haven't been here at all and one is a rapid antigen test. the authorities approved that on friday then they approved pfizer's covid-19 pill treatment. that is going to go into commercialization for 2022 some changes now that you are seeing and the authorities looking for an off ramp. >> eunice yoon, thank you. eunice yoon in beijing we have dr. scott gottlieb who will join us later to talk about

what it means for us or if this is a situation that china is in a different boat because they have no natural immunity because of their policies. >> that is an important interview. we didn't think about that. the countdown is on. the fed expected to announce a quarter point rate hike after the meeting on wednesday everything you need to know to get ready next. and senator kevin kreclaim r will join us from washington next we will be right back. ch day lot than the last. but whatever work becomes, the world works with servicenow. if you invest in the s&p 500 your portfolio may be too concentrated in big companies. this can leave it imbalanced and exposed when performance varies. invesco's s&p 500 equal weight etf, rsp, is spread equally across the s&p 500, which reduces potential concentration risk

and helps keep your portfolio in balance. stay in balance with invesco's rsp. you can't buy love. happiness. or confidence. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. ♪ ♪

we're back a new rate hike cycle is all but certain on wednesday following the policy meeting are the markets and economy ready? let's bring in kathy, chief financial economist and kevin simpson, portfolio manager at wealth planning. calf kathy, let's talk about the plans on wednesday and the chairman will hike rates every meeting or will he keep the outlook close to the vest? >> steve, forward guidance of what fed chairman powell shares is most important. we know it is fait de compli they may refrain from giving us

explicit forward guidance surrounding the inflation guidance and the outbreak of war and the outbreak of covid in china complicates the global outlook. how they handicap the risk around growth and inflation is important. if he sounds more worried about inflation, that means they are hawkish and will go consistently and aggressively this year >> kathy, i'll get to kevin in a second i was looking up how the fed reacted in world war ii, which obviously this is not, but the fed during war time is different than the fed during normal times. the fed during war time gets closer to the treasury and acts in concert with the government ex except, rights now and here, i is not the best way to act with the government does the fed back off potential rate hikes because of the concern of the economy or does

it push ahead? the best thing to do is raise rates and fight inflation. >> the fed is in a tough spot, steve, as you know i think that they really have to focus on the inflation portion i would add that our analysis shows the hit to the economy right now is moderate. we still see about 3% growth for the full year. the end of the year, we still see 2.4% that is above potential. it still gives the fed new room on the growth front to raise rates. we see 75 basis points this year the fed could change the forward path >> kevin, we handed you an outlook that is muddy at best. how do you think what the fed will do with the economy and stocks and sneearnings >> it is a scary time, steve

we are dancing around topic of russia because nobody wants to think about the worse case sdsd scenario the money we pumped into the system is no longer there. the fed will raise rates this week it is only a quarter quarter point. i agree with you i agree with kathy we need a lot more, but unfortunately, that's not going to happen as a result of this russian invasion in ukraine. the backdrop is not great. we're going to have to navigate this inflation for a lot longer than we wanted to, for a lot longer than the fed wanted to. the cpi number last week being the highest we've seen since january 1982 probably will show no signs of abatement. we'll see what happens with oil. on the heels of that, you have a consumer confidence level that comes out low and rightly so things are a mess. we'll have to navigate this inflation for a lot longer than we intended.

>> when you look at the ten-year, which becky told us was 2.02.09 -- what was it? i missed it when it came across? 2.08 >> yeah. >> what do you see as the yield curve really starts to flatten >> yeah, well, like kathy said, if we're only going to be looking at a 1.75 fed funds rate, it's absolutely going to flatten. the problem is from an investment perspective, how do we fight inflation how do we invest in an inflationary environment when you have practically free money. even 1.75 or 2.75 if we get there in two years is still really cheap money relatively speaking so the fear and the concerns are and you start to hear the words stagflation, hyperinflation, or recession, it's going to be a tough narrative or a tough task

for the fed to tiptoe around those. i think the fed gets a little more prominent and rightly so. i'm hoping we don't see it, but i think it's a higher possibility. >> kathy, last question to you, real quick, how far does the fed go in terms of raising rates and where's the risk in the press conference and the statement on wednesday >> well, we think they're going to need to eventually go slightly above restrictive, a little bit above 2%. that probably happens next year. the risk is maybe the markets aren't fully prepared with how hawkish fed chair powell will be i'm not sure about the other market. >> kathy, thanks very much. when we return, talks set to resume between russia and ukraine as attacks on kiev ramp

up we'll talk about the potential next steps right after this break. to your financial plan. bill, mary? hey... it's our former broker carl. carl, say hi to nina, our schwab financial consultant. hm... i know how difficult these calls can be. not with schwab. nina made it easier to set up our financial plan. we can check in on it anytime. it changes when our goals change. planning can't be that easy. actually, it can be, carl. look forward to planning with schwab. schwab! ♪♪ ♪ ♪ we all need a rock we can rely on. to be strong. to overcome anything. ♪ ♪ to be... unstoppable. that's why the world's largest companies and over 30 million people rely on prudential's retirement and workplace benefits. who's your rock?

and it's easier than ever to get your projects done right. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness check out angi.com today. angi... and done.

we're 20 days into the russia/ukraine war joining us right now to talk about what this means is michael o'hanlon he's a brookings institution seen senior fellow on foreign policy. i was hoping we could stop the shooting and get to a better place, but i have to say watching what happened overnight with russia landing missiles 20 miles away from the polish

border doesn't give you any hope there are options on the table. >> becky, you're right to be skeptical, but if you look on the other side of why russia carried out the attack, russia is aware it's not winning the war and it's aware the weapons that are being sent into ukraine despite the controversy of sending in jets is having a huge effect putin is realizing he's bitten off more than he could chew here what i sort of interpret as his overconfidence compared to our overconfidence in the 2003 iraq invasion is now being reassessed the question is what is russia's minimal standard for success here or minimal objective that it would be willing, perhaps, to obtain and rethink everything else in order to reduce the incredible western economic pressure that's being brought to bear much than than, i think,

putin anticipated as well as the battlefield of ukrainian resistance you're right we can't know this for sure. but you're right if putin has any sort of sanity, which i think he does at some level, he's going to have to recognize ukrainian neutrality is perhaps an acceptable outcome if he can get his economy back and prevent a huge military kwag m quagmire. >> i think it brings up a huge question first that he recognizes this and, second, that he loses face. he's not going to want to make a substantial admission that he was wrong. even if he does that, would that mean a change in business relations because he's done such horrible things, war crimes that have been committed in ukraine how do we go back to doing business with him? >> that latter question is tough. i'm not sure putin needs us to

welcome him at the g-7 meetings. i think if he has the sanctions lifted, he can get by while enjoying some of the previous recognitions if he would accept it, i don't know but i do think this is a person staring ahead at many months or years at military resistance when he's already got an economy that was flat prior to this invasion and now is being sanctioned in a way that's really unprecedented for any major economy on earth you put all that together, and it's got to be potential moment of rethinking. now, you talk about how he'd have to acknowledge he was wrong, well, maybe you and i would say that he doesn't have to say that. he doesn't have to say that to his own people we know he's the master of disinformation not only to us but toward his own russian voters and citizens, and he could still claim this was the great accomplishment that

prevented nato from continuing its eastwood march he'll find a way to trumpet this, i think. >> michael, you said if the sanctions are lifted what is the criteria have the europeans and u.s. spelled it out do they need to spell it out at this point have they even figured it out yet? >> i don't think they figured it out. i think your question is right on i think we need an answer for negotiations, and we shouldn't expect president zelenskyy to do the negotiation while he let's moving from one bunker to another trying to stay alive, probably operating on a few hours of sleep a night and when your whole security and architecture is at risk, this is not just a ukrainian issue we need to drive this. again, which sanctions are relaxed and lifted at what stage in the process and there needs to be a fairly straightforward linkage to the withdrawal of russian troops from ukrainian territory, so maybe you relax some of the

sanctions at first but the bigger ones on access to the banks and the banking system, for example, would only be fully restored once russian forces are home. >> i thought of three criteria one is full withdrawal from ukraine, two is the recognition of the sovereignty of the ukrainian borders, and, three, full reparations for the destruction conducted there. what do you think? >> i like them all the first two are practical provided there's a finessing of crimea i don't know that we have to hold firm on that one. the reparations is important because ukraine needs to be rebuilt. i'm not sure, however, russia is going to be in a position to contribute much and certainly is not going to accept responsible for the war in the way the classic reparations would apply. the most you could hope for there is an international effort to commit to help reconstruct ukraine where russia makes at least a symbolic contribution as

one of the guaranteeing powers, but not in russia's own mind as perpetrator of the war. >> michael, thank you very much. michael o'hanlon. >> nice to be with you ♪ it is just after 7:00 on the east coast, and you are watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and steve liesman andrew is off today. the futures have been higher this morning the dow futures are close to 375 points s&p up by 40 and the nasdaq up by 82. headlines this morning, treasure yields continue to rise ahead of the fed's two-day policy meeting that's this week it's hit a high since july 2019 while the two-year note also hit a two-year high. policy makers will announce the first red hike this week since 2018

fox fox.com, the supplier of apple, has shut down, undering people to work from home. comcast, the parent of cnbc is close to finalizing a deal with major league baseball. nbc's peacock streaming service would gain exclusive rights to a package of 18 sunday games as baseball seeks to expand its digital partnerships a deal could be announced within a few days that makes me think do i need to renew my mlb thing or -- have i been paying with it -- i get all the games. i get all the games. >> you should be okay. >> just admit it you have no idea what you're paying for what. >> paying something for all games, but i don't know -- do you renew it each year it's good for comcast too because it's on my xfinity

thing, right i don't want to -- i'm happy for comcast they get these sunday games, but i like all of them. >> to feed your habit. >> yes i was going to deny, but, no i was thinking, what happens after this march madness is over that's whey was thinking. >> it's going to be like this. >> right. >> there's horse racing. have you watching horse racing >> no. >> that's science. >> all the horses are beautiful. how do you possibly pick >> speed in the last quarter mile. >> and track conditions. >> yes i wrote a program for it i wrote a program for it we have to move on i wrote a program where you could make $3 an hour. >> or you could get a job. >> it was kind of fun to know i could make $3 an hour. right now let's take a look

at the fallout leslie picaaker joins us now leslie. >> peabody coal had to raise prices peabody had a hedge price of $84 per metric ton, but high demand was only exacerbated by the ukraine conflict coal rose 250% between the end of 2021 and march of this year and the price of nickel, of course, surging before it was halted, causing chinese nickel producer to face paper losses chose to a billion dollars jpmorgan and other banks are working on terms to extend a line of credit to help it post collateral and meet margin

bloomberg reported last week they were the closest. as of now they appear to be unlevered isolated incidents, however, there are other pain points that have not yet risen to the surface that's what participants on wall street are focused on. they're focused on the hedge provider, specifically bank spots. they are trading higher today. he's also watching the kgb etf guys. >> leslie, is there any chance somebody has a big number that we don't know about that we're going to come in tomorrow morning and say, oh, so-and-so bet such-and-such on this russian bet? >> there are certainly rumors out there, none that i wish to discuss publicly because i don't want to be moving the markets when nothing is certain at this

point in time. but there's a lot of discussion behind the scenes, a lot of debate because as you know, steve, the intercon neck activity of the banking systems is critical. yes, these are big numbers that could create pretty big losses for those individual companies the challenge arises when there are a multitude of situations that impact the banking system and create some massive problems ar kaygo if you recall was one last year. it kind of ended there what you don't wasn't to see is multiple ar kay goes at the same time. >> we don't see it now and there doesn't appear to be at the moment. coming up, dr. scott gottlieb joins us for a look back athpadeect e n m k two years after battling the virus and tech stocks sinking this morning.

your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire flexshares are carefully constructed. to go beyond ordinary etfs. and strengthen client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

cody! hi!! hi! how are you? i'm good! i'm crocheting. i see that. started off as a hobby. kind of snowballed from there. and alex, i don't want to stop. well, i don't see why you should have to. let's set you up with a side gig savings goal on the u.s. bank mobile app. this way, you can turn it into your main hustle before you know it. you're my hero, alex! what are you working on now? pool cover. that's fun. oh! i made my wife a bathing suit. oh, did linda like it? she did not. oh. you should see what i made for max. max! look at him. he loves it. the confidence to make your dream a reality. u.s. bank. we'll get there together. dad, we got this.

we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones checking the futures, we're up 351

s&p up we're . >> that's great. >> we're doing a live show here. we check in with dom chu >> don't mind steve, dom. >> i think it's beautiful. there are many beautiful things happening in the world and obviously some very bad things happening in the world right now, but i will focus on some of the things happening in the markets that are catching a lot of people's attention. we'll start as we do oftentimes over the last several weeks now because the oil and gas trade is front and center for a lot of folks. it has arguably become the epicenter for a lot of that market wree action for what's been happening between russia and ukraine. right now, though, because of those talks that are maybe ongoing between those two sides, maybe working toward a potential cease-fire condition, you factor that in with some of the concerns for growth out of china because of the closure and other things as a result wti prices are below

$104 a barrel. we're going to call it roughly a 20% plus drop from the recent highs we've seen for crude oil that's big ice brent crude, the benchmark, $107.73. as a result, some of the movers are chevron and schlumberger on the oil side of thing and the energy sector spdr is down the treasury note yields are about 2.07 by the way, at the highs of this cycle, this is roughly 2.65% three years ago. remember at the lows, kind of toward that covid range there in march, it was just about 0.4%. to give you an idea of the

con contec contextu urle move we've seen. there are concerns for growth in china because of the schenzhen closures due to covid. all of that is down about 8.5% baidu down as well as jd the reason i want to highlight these four, they're the worst performers in the nasdaq market today. the one that affects it, take that down 5% as well many of those moves catching a lot of folks' attention. there's been no support over the course of the last year.

any time there's a modest bounce, it goes down further we'll wait to see. >> it's a great job, dom all of it is essential information. i just need -- i apologize to the producers and viewers. while i have you here, i have a little aside very quickly on these brackets would you go past -- i mean will you pick out of the -- whether it be a one or two seed for you to pick the final? i could go all the way look, i could go all the way to a five i'm wondering. i mean, iowa is a 5, houston's a 5, uconn is a 5. there's some 4s. would you go out with the top two or three in terms of seeds and could you pick an eventual champion that's a 6 or 5 >> here's what i would say as i've seen the brackets the way they shape out, there's no doubt gonzaga is going to be one of those -- >> gonzaga.

>> gonzaga here's what i would say. let's talk about providence, the dominicans. >> yes. >> they could be in there as well i would also venture illinois could be maybe a three or four seed so illinois could be it. i also think -- i'm a west coast guy. i grew up -- i was born and raised in the bay area. >> ucla. >> yes, but that's southern california st. mary's is what i was thinking there i grew up not too far from there. >> they've got a player on arizona. >> sorry i knew -- i mean i apologized in advance for that, dom. thank you. >> you're welcome. >> it's the first day after this people talk about this [ indiscernible ♪

coming up, two years later, where does the covid pandemic stand? we're going to speak to dr. scott gottlieb next. and the ukraine crisis continues. oil, right now, where are we at 103 there's 130. quk x"ilbeig bk. >> announcer: "squawk box" is sponsored by bitwise, the business leader in crypto index funds.

when it comes to cybersecurity, the biggest threats don't always strike the biggest targets. so help safeguard your small business with comcast business securityedge™. it's advanced security that continuously scans for threats and helps protect every connected device. on the largest, fastest, reliable network with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. so you can be ready for what's next. get started with internet and voice for $64.99 a month. and ask how to add securityedge™. or, ask how to get up to an $800 prepaid card.

it's probably the case we will have an epidemic in the u.s. we can look at how long it will take to mitigate spread. >> what has to happen? >> they have to mitigate measures like social distancing, canceling large gatherings, working from home, closing schools -- others have done that. >> closing schools everywhere or where the outbreaks are at. >> where the outbreaks are at. you want to control it there's an epidemic floating around if you implement those mitigation steps very early, you can drastically alter the con ters we're losing valuable time we need to think about these measures in the regions where

there is spread right now. >> well. that was dr. scott gottlieb on the air a week before the world health organization declared a global pandemic. joining us once again right now is the man who has guided us through it all dr. gottlieb is a former fda commissioner and serves on the boards for pfizer and alumina. that's the first time i've heard that playback two years ago. you were right then. you've been with us for the last two years. we're all to the point where things are better. we're back out and things are normal you hear these storying about what's happening in china and it raises a lot of concerns and questions. china is in a rare condition they have zero policy. that means they don't have the same natural immunity, but they're shutting down entire cities with tens of millions of people, and we're trying to

figure out what that means what is happening? >> well, look, we really don't know how large the outbreak is in china right now they're recording a thousand cases, up to 3,000 a day they've reported we don't know if there are tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands. the fact they're shutting down major cities, what we're hoping is the virus will burn itself out inside of households people are going to get infected in those homes where they're confining people right now the big question is how much infection do they have and how long will it last? you're right china has a population very vulnerable to this new variant it's a much more contagious variant and they don't have a population that has natural immunity they haven't deployed vaccines that are very effective against this variant, omicron variant. they're very vulnerable to spread right now they didn't use the time they bought themselves to put in place measures that would

prevent omicron from spreading. >> what does this mean for the rest of the world? this is a different omicron variant we dealt with. this is ba.2 if we had widespread ba.1 variant, d that mean we're protecting from a situation like this >> it does you're seeing an uptick across europe i believe we'll see a bump up as we lift. as you get some waning immunity from boosters people got over the winter, i don't think you're going to see another major surge. there's going to be an uptick. in europe, while we don't know what the ultimate trajectory is, i imagine as you see a bump up in cases like germany and the uk, you'll start to see continued declines it's probably a combination of

lifting litigation ba.2 is becoming more pressure lent that's causing this bump-up in infections. we're probably three or four weeks behind the uk, so while the uk is seeing a bump-up of infections, we'll get further into our spring before we see that happen here hopefully we buy ourselves a backstop from the warming weather as well. >> i was going to say, do you think we necessarily follow? i know we've been four weeks behind every time something happens in england but we're in a situation where it's just raged through. is there a chance we avoid a spike at all >> i think we'll see that. you're going to see some increases in cases we have dramatically lifted some it's going to flow through and ba.2 is becoming more prevalent. again, i don't think it's going to cause a dramatic increase in

cases. it's going to cause a lot of anxiety. given how much infection we've had, given how vaccinated we are, i think that's going to be a pretty good backdrop against covid spread one final point. when you look at places like germany, where they had a lot of omicron spread, they have a lot less spread right now. we know from the data, omicron is about 95% effective. the immunity lasts 90 days to up to six months. >> dr. got lootlieb, joe told m played tgolf most every day he had covid. >> before i knew. >> before he knew. i was playing guitar.

>> in your house. >> in my house here's the thing are we here? is this it is omicron the cold/flu thing and each variant is there's another one coming through and i'm at risk of getting sniffles and a fever? is that here now >> there's no law that says a variants will become more so you have a population that has a lot of immunity through it through convenience vaccines or the variant or both. there is a good chance that this recedes into being more mild not only because of the innate

qualities itself, but you have a population that has a lot of baseline immunity, and even though we're passion around the infection, we're not going to get very sick. there was a study done in finland. vaccines are quite protective in preventing symptomatic and severe disease. >> dr. gottlieb, thank you i wish we didn't have to still have these conversations, but we do appreciate your being here and continuing to tell us what's happening. great to see you. >> thanks a lot. all right. still ahead, a live report from ukraine. erare some virtual peace talks that are now under way "squawk box" will be right back.

competition beat us again. how? they have a better finance system than we do. i feel like they might have a better finance system than we do. workday. how do they make better decisions faster? workday. it's got to be something workday. i think i got something. work... hey, rob, you're on mute. hello! hey, rob, there he is. workday. the finance, hr and planning system for a changing world. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna.

i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

russia moving a conflict closer to nato's border after carrying out a military strike in western ukraine about 30 miles near the poland border 35 were killed, 100 and more

hurt molly hunter joins us from ukraine. you've been coming to us from lviv, i believe, which is now -- i'm worried for your you it seems like not quite as bad as maybe the eastern part, but you're definitely, you know, in the line of fire at this point >> reporter: yeah, joe, if they can hit a military base 20 miles west of me, they can certainly hit this region. lviv has been a destination for anyone fleeing from the east, a departure point for anyone heading off to the west. this is used for nato training exercises, u.s. military troops have been there multiple times since 2015 so i think here in lviv, no one was surprised that that military base was hit i think they were surprised the death toll was as high as it was, 35 i think you said this has changed the game. it's changed their own security

assessment in diegs residents, there are hundreds of thousands of refugees who decided to wait it out. they don't want to go to poland. they don't want to leave the country. they believe in their country and they want to stay here this weekend rattled their nerves last night we woke up to air rides at 2:30 in the morning, again at 7:30 this morning as the attacks creep closer, people here are going to start getting very nervous a guy said to me it sends two messages, they can attack anywhere, and, two, it shows the russians are really afraid of ukrainians joe? >> thank you for that report, molly. you know, if you're 20 miles, it doesn't seem like there's a large margin for error for what we're seeing here, and i'm wondering what the response of nato members would be at that

point. >> reporter: yeah, exactly look, we heard from u.s. officials yesterday. they said they would absolutely defend nato territory without any hesitation, of course. the other thing about it being so close to the polish border, this is the route the western arms were coming in. as the people were flowing out -- are flowing out, i should say, that's the way the military is flowing in. they ramped up their equipment and aid to ukrainiukrainians this is rattling -- for sure rattling the polish government, the europeans as well as nato. we're going to hear a lot more about that. >> hey, molly, i also heard poland is saying they can't handle any more refugees what has that meant? has it gotten harder to get across the border or is that a plea from the european union for help once they get those refugees there >> reporter: i think it's both when you hear krakow city

officials say they're completely overwhelmed, there's no more capacity, this is a small country. they've accepted more than 1.5 million of the 2.8 million crossing the border. people are still going across. that's going to reality more people, people who thought they were maybe going to leave the country. poland is making a plea for help from the rest of its european neighbors and the rest of the international community. they're hoping to move people from poland to elsewhere in europe, but that's going to require a much bigger commitment from other european countries. >> molly hunter, thank you. still to come, the energy sector sector plus, the foc is every game changer expect speak tomorrow stay tuned, richard fisher is coming up. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

but so do developers, data scientists, ctos. the new creators to them, we say let's create something that changes everything. ♪♪ ibm. let's create.

the perfect storm of low inventories, surge in demand, and limited spare capacity had oil prices on the high side, only to be pushed higher by the russia/ukraine crisis. here now to talk about how that may impact energy advices,

francisco brandt, head of global commodities and research we've already spoken a little bit about it today we looked like we were on our way, francisco what do you think is moderating the big gains we saw back down in the $100 a barrel area? >> sure. thank you for having me on once again. just a couple of ideas here. first, obviously, it's the fact that ukraine has said in the past few days that the cease-fire talks are becoming a little bit more substantive, and i think the positions between russia and ukraine, at least people seem to have closed a little bit and the market is getting excited that maybe there's a cease-fire at some point in the next few days the other part is what china has been doing in chen zheng where

people went into lockdown because of a rise in covid cases. and, remember, we've been waiting for china to move away from their zero covid tolerance policy, but it hasn't happened yet. in fact, a lot of chinese cities are subject to very severe restrictions, which is one of the reasons why we think demand will go back up for oil once the restrictions are lifted, so -- >> so we haven't really been thinking -- we think of demand as being relatively static, but that's an important part because we're talking about supply and we're obsessed with supply, where we're going to get it, and what's going to change there but quickly demand can change as well. >> right remember, there's the economy. we had a good economic run in the past couple of years because of the policy restriction injections and then it was inflation scratching 8.5%.

it's likely to head over 8% over the next couple of months. at that point the fed's going to have to start making some tougher decisions, even as the ukrai ukraine/russia conflict starts to decline so there's a number of factors going on at the same time here. >> can we supply europe eventually what's europe going to do? luckily, you know, it's march. we're not -- you know, it's not december what's europe going to do? >> well, so europe is planning for a contingency here remember, russian gas supplies have increased in the last couple of weeks into europe. so for better or worse, european metro gas inventories are starting to recover relative to what they were a couple of weeks ago. we've seen gas prices coming

down obviously the threat of the u.s. doubling or tripling its lng export capacity, i think, has put russia on notice in fact, we've seen a lot of discussion among the lng liquid natural gas skpoerts in the u.s. in the last few days about potentially ramping up exports over the next four or five years aggressively into europe, which is something that has been discussed for a number of years but was never actioned upon. you have new faangs. the new faangs are different they're fuel, aerospace, ail culture, nuclear and renewals, and, of course, gold and critical minerals that will help make the energy transition faster >> i've got to write that down did you memorize that?

>> what was the "f"? i missed the "f." >> fuels. >> agriculture. >> agriculture, aerospace, nuclear, gold, and other minerals. >> gold and other minerals. >> right. >> there you go. >> i think the new finding of lng from the u.s., it's huge. >> i know. >> i don't know how long it takes them to build those ports or those facilities. >> it's a long-term strategy they're starting out already look at germany. >> i heard of a cool story of a russian ship working for a french company bringing u.s. natural gas over to france. >> total >> i don't think it was total. it was a russian ship and they were bringing the lng over. >> francisco, thank you for that i know what to talk about you the next time you're on, get an update on the new faangs i like that. when we come back, the oligarch crackdown continues

now if focus is on crypto and payment services we've got the details right after this break. in the meantime, look at futures. take a look at the dow up 270. s&p futures indicated up by about 21 check it out the nasdaq now indicated down by about 7 points it. was up by 100 points when we started the show an hour ago this is in large part to the crackdown in china and the big losses we saw on the exchange there. we'll continue to watch this very closely "squawk box" will be right back. okay. this is a miss. edison, can i be honest with you? i-i-i-it stinks. (speaking japanese) like i was saying, it's ftx. it's a safe and easy way to get into crypto. ehhh, i don't think so. and i'm never wrong about this stuff. never.

if you're a medicare beneficiary and live in the area, call now to see how this little card could get you some big benefits, including money added back to your social security check! with one toll-free call, you can find out how easy it is to get all of your original medicare coverage, plus extra benefits. you get an all-in-one plan designed to fit your needs so you can be your best every day. you could have medical coverage. prescription drugs with $0 generics, dental, vision and hearing, plus the wellcare visa flex cards, money for over-the-counter items and money back in your social security check each month and so much more. and here's more good news. you can get a wellcare plan for a $0 monthly premium. how can wellcare offer all of those benefits for a $0 monthly premium? it's simple. medicare advantage and medicare part d prescription drug coverage are important parts of medicare.

wellcare has a contract with medicare to offer and provide these important options to you. call right now to get your free copy of the wellcare all-in-one guide. call now. there is absolutely no obligation for requesting this free information. wellcare offers benefits that go beyond the basics, including money added to your social security check to help cover your part b premium. call today to get your free copy of the all-in-one guide, with absolutely no obligation. your free plan guide will give you the details you need to make a smart choice for your medicare coverage. just call. remember, there's no obligation for requesting this free information, so call. wellcare. call today.

they will be in its crosshairs as part of the hunt for oligarch assets robert frank joins us with more on this. this souping the -- this is upping the ante making sure there's no way around the rules. >> exactly they could become targets in the increasing and widening oligarch

crackdown. they say those who fail to maintain policies will be included crypto doubled right after the invasion of ukraine. then we have the u.s. going after the financial investments of the oligarchs, uk authorities freezing the hedge fund investments made by roman ibram vichlt he's the high-profile billionaire. he invested what could be billions of dollars through an unregistered investment firm based in tarrytown new york called concorde management his hedge funds include big names, mill street capital, impeer yum, millennium some funds like breschen howard say they will return concord's investment abramovich had been trying to

sell his assets in recent weeks. he also has large holdings of u.s. stocks. unclear what vehicles he may have used. concorde did not respond to a request for comment. the russian-rich have over $8 billion stashed overseas i would imagine most of that is in private equity, hedge funds, stocks, and other u.s. investments. this story is just beginning. >> robert, is this story like the one in the past where they weren't taking it seriously because they didn't shut down all the other avenues? >> that's one reason it's different. not just the oligarchs are being sanctioned but all of their family members it's not just saying, look, as oligarchs, you cannot conduct financial tractionsactions.

this is much wider and deeper than any sanctions we've ever seen before, and the names on the list keep growing every day. remember, abramovich has not been sanctioned in the u.s uk did it on thursday. canada did it. his name could be added to the u.s. this week. >> robert, thank you robert frank. coming up, richard fish owner the fed's big week, the impact on the ukraine war and policy inflation and much more here are the futures of this hour up 209 we were up 400 when we first came in. nasdaq is up a lot more now. down 57. s&p up about 10.

(vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you. pimco, a global leader in active fixed income.

at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to keep you connected to what you love. and now, we're working to bring you the next generation of wifi. it's ultra-fast. faster than a gig. supersonic wifi. only from xfinity. it can power hundreds of devices with three times the bandwidth. so your growing wifi needs will be met. supersonic wifi only from us... xfinity. this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments.

two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. welcome back to "squawk box. we saw things start off very strong dow futures were down by about 400 points just about two hours ago. you're looking at futures up by 218. s&p up by about 12 points right now and the nasdaq has turned negative we were up by 40 points. the nasdaq down 40 points. that's because of a lot of what's happening in asia you're going to see some big selloffs when it came to china the hang seng off by 5%. the shanghai down 2.6%

a lot of that related to a crackdown on technology stocks and that's where the biggest declines began you saw lockdowns in major cities that have been shut down. you take a look at what's happening in the treasury market, a pickup in yields as people are running back in to buy these treasuries the ten-year, 2.9% two-year after 1.822%. a little higher than the latest in 2018. oil prices coming down on concerns of the lockdown and the idea it ran so strong last week. wti is down by about 5%, but it's still at $104 a barrel. >> wow, soon we'll be saying it's cheap. >> it's cheap.

tomorrow the fed will bring in the first rate hike let's bring in richard fisher, c cnbc contributor good morning. >> good morning. >> if you were where you have been, would you go in in the morning and say we have higher inflation, higher inflation coming, would you be pounding the table for 50 or 100. >> you wouldn't be pounding the table, but we would be arguing we need to act we're behind the curve we have to move. the chairman has said this in a congressional hearing. we need to take the first steps. so, yes, i would be abdicating to reverse the process, reverse the gears. >> how would you be processing just very fortuitous that among the things that you were, there's a lot of things that you were, richard, in terms of government and places -- i mean that in the best possible light here but being from the dallas fed

where you have a keen sense of oil prices and the oil dynamic on the economy, i mean obviously economically you look at the higher oil price and you say, okay, that's inflation, until it's not, until higher oil prices start to diminish and reduce economic growth how do you balance all that in term of your forecast? >> well, first of all, that's one thing that's important i just got a report friday night from the dallas fed from my former colleagues, and what they're expecting this year, given the survey search, input prices for all businesses across the board in the federal reserve district of texas, federal reserve district huge district, some 30-odd million people will be up this year their survey of how they're going to charge, how they're going to price, they expect to increase their prices 6.4%

that's because of all inputs including oil. remember, steve, this federal reserve district in texas, only 1% of the employment is oil and gas and mining 12% of the value added of that is sector. 12% is gdp equivalent comes out of energy. but all inputs are increasing. again, the dow can expect some increase at 7.1% this year, and they have been increasing at that clip. we have a wage spike spiral taking place and we vo cut it off at the pass. we don't have a choice that would be my argument. >> richard, among things you've done working at treasury and other places, you were involved in helping negotiate greater output -- sit right? the '70s we've all been around. i was pumping gas then you were trying to get the saudis to pump more gas. what is your take on the diplomatic efforts to get

venezuela, saudi arabia, and other countries, and even an iran deal and their ability to produce more energy and bring down oil prices? >> well, you're right. in the '78 period, i traveled with secretary blumenthal. also cy vance. we each created a condition with the saudis and kuwaitis and others and begged them to produce more oil, exactly what's happening today. we also met with the president of venezuela look i'm a texan. i don't know why we wouldn't incentivize our own output sector here other than go and beg others to produce more we need to bring the prices down the best way to do it is produce more there's plenty of incentive for oil and gas here in the united states we are the largest producer in the word when we're full bore.

we're not to depend on anybody else that's very important for national security, especially at this moment with what's going on in europe and the land war in ukraine. >> richard i was thinking on the drive over how much more con pli indicated the fed picture is this morning i thought a few weeks ago, i thought, this is easy. they've got to raise rates and make sure we bring down demand in some way. this morning you've got the situation where the supply chain is getting caught again. you have a city shutting down. the fed rate hikes aren't all that helpful when it comes to supply chain troubles. if we were dealing with just a demand story, that would be another problem. the problem sucks. you've also got a situation where you're looking at the problems in the eu in particular and how much they're going to be feeling the economic pain of what's happening in ukraine, and they're going to be asking the central bank there not to raise rates as quickly because they're not going to be able to afford

more pain. will our federal reserve look at that and think, okay, we should go slow, too, or are we going to raise rates knowing that's going to meet a much sharper dollar when you have banks like the ecb not doing the same >> becky, that's a great analysis i think it's that complicated. remember, the fed cannot do anything about the spike constraints, not anything about the 7.5 million people in chen zheng locked in. not thinking about what's happening in ukraine, but we do have a runaway situation here where wages are increasing at a rapid clip, driven in part with trying to catch up with inflation. labor has power. that's good for the workers. but it also increases the cost of production of goods and services that's where the fed can have significant influence. >> i hear that too i was thinking the reason we have the labor shortage is because we were basically paying people to stay home. we had covid running rampant

here and people with serious problems we're not paying people to stay home anymore, and covid is not the problem it once was here will it be easy or easier to find work with or without the fed's help >> as long as the economy is paying, people are going to go to work, particularly if they're not being subsidized look, we cannot undo the policy. the reason had to do with covid. we have to undo excessive accommodations by the federal reserve. zero interest rates distort pricing decision when you're buying securities and also when you're borrowing money to build your businesses. this has to be righted they're behind the curve and i don't think 25 basis points or a series of moves and 25 basis points or one or two basis points, remember, becky, look at where the rates are. they're still zero

real rates are still significantly negative the point thing, becky -- >> it changes the outlook. does it change how much we would see at the end of the year >> yes i think it -- >> richard, before we go -- >> we have two tektrctonic issus here it's a question of what does the economic plan look like. then you have this land war driven by a neo-nazi crazy machblt things are significant in the way the system worked we're going to have significant volatility, i believe because these are changes. these are atomic changes we have to see how well the fed can maneuver this as they go through time i don't think they know. i just know they have to get started. >> richard, build the next step for us where does the fed go and how fast do they have to get there

>> i started in 2005 alan greenspan was fed chair in 2004 it took 19 consecutive moves to ban the curve on inflation which got up into the mid-5s that's going to be the real issue here inflation was up to 4.7% it was starting when i started around 2.7%. it took 19 consecutive moves i have no idea, but i don't think this is a one-shot deal. >> richard, thanks for joining us this morning. >> have a nice day, steve. >> you too i believe the conversation will continue and the decades of experience you have is going to come in handy. thanks for joining us. >> thank you aulg. just after 8:00. ♪ [ indiscernible we're live from the nasdaq market site from times square.

i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and steve liesman who's in for andrew let's check out the futures. the nasdaq has turned into the red. it was up 50 points earlier. it's down, 40. >> it was 15. >> we were up 380 on the dow, now 200. we couldn't figure out why things were moving that way. i don't know whether there's anything positive in terms of -- >> the oil price is down. >> the oil price is down but it's all based on what's happening there. reading the headlines over the weekend, it boggles the mind seeing things like that in 2022, never, ever back in global community, never, ever you mentioned, sure, he's not going to be at the g7. but that's going to be a pariah. the entire country is going to be pariah from year on out

i'll never forgive what i've been eeing you can't say what look what we did to the people in iraq in terms of foe. >> so different. >> we wear white hats. typically are the good guys. i refuse we've ever done anything in this country similar to -- >> not with intent, i don't think. >> right, exactly. >> in fact, i'm sure not with intent what he's doing right now is a massacre he's the butcher of ukraine. he's targeting civilians as a specific part of his strategic effort that's part of the lan. >> exactly. >> i guess i have to read this. a tax on kyiv ramping up ukraine and russia resume talks. joining us now, kayla tausche with the latest on ukraine >> reporter: good morning, steve. there's new hope for these virtual cease-fire talks taking place after a ukrainian negotiator says russia has

dropped the ultimatum. the war in ukraine has reached nato's doorstep with an air strike on a air facility killing people ten miles from the polish border, 35 miles from lviv until now a save enclave which had become the west's diplomatic outpost. officials are steadfast in the view that they will defend any and every inch of nato territory, even in the case of accidental fire. as nato fortifies ukraine's military arsenal, moscow has turned to beijing, asking china for military equipment as it embarks on a longer fight than anticipated. national security adviser jake sullivan is set to meet china's top foreign policy director in rome and a warning not to bail russia out. >> we have made it clear not to just beijing but every country in the world that if they think

that they can basically bail russia out, they can give russia a workaround to the sanctions ta we've imposed, they should have another thing coming, because we will ensure that neither china or anyone else can compensate russia for these losses. >> in a called from president zelenskyy asked president biden to close loop hopes in existing sanctions and broad interactions to international waterways later this morning i'll be speaking with wally adeyemo. we'll have more on that conversation throughout the day. steve? >> kayla, are additional sanctions being thought of and planned, or is the administration at the moment sitting with what it's done? >> certainly there are question wls the u.s. and the west could go for a full trade embargo. of course, the eu hasn't been willing to do that for energy.

that's one of the things president zelenskyy has been calling for publicly there are calls for the nickel and titanium that we and other countries get from russia and whether the lack of those alternatives are what's keeping the other countries from acting against those. there are counter sanctions. janet yellen t treasury secretary said no actions on china have been taken yet. certainly that would be one of the powerful tools that remains in the u.s.'s toolbox. >> thanks for joining us this morning. >> sure. in the meantime the markets watching this whipsaw action let's take a look with mike santoli. mike, watching it even this morning, we've seen the positives come down and we've seen the nasdaq turn into negative territory. >> yeah, becky

we're very, very jumpy within this trading range last week wee traded between 4150 on the s&p and 4350 and sometimes covered that ground in a hurry. clearly the wide range of potential outcomes in ukraine with the fed is weighing on it there's a high burden of proof for any rally if it were to develop. look at what we're facing here that's a steady downtrend. every rally attempt has been very brief and not all that persuasive i do think there's some significance in the fact we've been managing to hold this where we've closed with the s&p 500 index fund, let's say 4, 4,200ish is about what we've traded down. i do think it's very significant though early may of last year is when we first got to these levels, so it's been a really prolonged kind of consolidation at this point. a lot of them said, yeah, it

looks good in terms of fundamentals, watching credit. this is a chart of the bank loan etf. senior loans, a lot of leverage companies. these are floating loans you buy them when rates are not going up what you do see is when people get concerned about solvency and they get concerned about credit quality, that's when you see weakness here. this was late 2018 into early 2019 where there was not really a solvency crisis, but what happened was the fed sort of halted its tightening plans, reversed course, and got some bids again not to critical levels but not going in the right direction crypto has worked reasonably well nasdaq, 100, moving right with bitcoin, guys. >> yep. >> mike, real quickly, talking about the s&p levels back to where we were last may, that's less than a year ago we've talked about how

valuations have come down substantially. that's why the shift has gotten so dramatic. >> earnings has been the one thing you haven't yet had to worry about. goldman reducing their 2022 estimates but still growing growth it's showing you the valuations. at least so far. there are risks if the economy slows down then the earnings picture. we've got kevin cramer giving us the latest out of washington we'll have the dakota senator up next as we head to break, there's shah nice chip stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

crude oil price is lower this morning, as you can see, down significantly almost at 5% the national average of gas, sitting at well over $4. last week's news, a ban on russian oil. joining us, someone from a big edge-producing state kevin cramer from north dakota

he serves on the armed services committee. that's how i keep my dakotas straight one is agriculture and the other is -- >> agriculture is still the largest industry even though we're big with oil and gas and coal. >> i have not visited. many people have not after nomad land, that's on my list definitely. >> let's do it this summer, joe. i'll send you an invitation. we'll send you a nice event to be at. you can meet all the gas producers and farmers. >> when's the motorcycle thing. >> that's a good time to come through. you can see both dakotas on a motorcycle in sturgis. >> some geico insurance. >> there you go. >> senator, i want to tap in -- we'll get to energy, but can i tap into your armed services intelligence and maybe you know things we don't know how disturbed should we be that

these -- that the attack has been so far west, and is it deliberate well, obviously it's deliberate. but he's not trying to draw nato into this, is he, because we're getting very close. >> it would seem very peculiar for him to do, that joe. all along he's suggesting -- every move we've made he's suggesting we're getting drawn in it almost seems he is, but it makes no strategic sense certainly the waterway is important to him that's made some sense but you wouldn't think he would want to take on the entire nato alliance, and that's what he would be flirting with but at the same time, i'm not sure we're dealing with a real sane vladimir putin here. >> right. >> so that's what i think is the question. >> i wondered about that in the hearings -- you know,

when you're behind closed doors, is there the -- is that posited that he's lost it? is that really something we should be thinking about >> well, we don't have a lot of psychiatrists in our hearings necessarily. >> we could use a few. >> we could use a few, there's no question. he's evolved into a much more strategic leader than he was a few years ago. yeah, there is concern about, and that's something we have to watch closely. it's also why we should be arming the people of ukraine better we've been dragging our feet at every turn when i say "we," i mean the administration they've made a lot of decisions to send legal weapons and more aid and the president has announced a couple more million here. >> that brings us to the polish mig situation. if we know he's already bombing

right near the border with poland because of weapon supplies or whatever coming from them, that would seem that that would be an escalation in his view of what the united states or what nato is doing. did we want to do that did it make a difference if it went through germany, if it went straight from poland, you know, didn't land on a u.s. base would it have made a difference? do you think we should have done that and supplied ukraine with migs >> personally, joe, i don't think we ought to let vladimir putin determine what we doful he made a decision to invade. now that we're this far into it and he's that close to poland and frankly the fact that president zelenskyy has asked for these means, i think we should have greenlighted it at the beginning.

frankly i wish they would have sent them to them. when they chose to go the route going through the united states as the arbiter, the united states changed its policies. i think that's a difference -- a distinction without a difference i don't think that vladimir putin would have drawn a difference he already knows what he wants to do. and i think we ought to give him all the tools he needs to prevent him from doing it. we need to dissuade him from being as aggressive as he is. >> senator do, you support giving ukraine the best defense system >> i defend giving them the most defensive. obviously they have the shoulder ones they're familiar with there's talk of the s-300 which is a russian air defense has

them. >> senator cramer, i know we have enough to think about with putin in ukraine do we have to think about the fact putin wants to change the warsaw pact and some are indeed in danger? >> i do think we have to worry, that he's not held very effectively, not very disciplined the hope is some of his own leaders that surround him will put a halt to this but so far his isolation and his aggres aggressive are prevailing. that's a major consideration to determine why he's doing what he's doing. >> do you have concrete examples of where energy production in north dakota is more difficult now given moves by the biden

administration than it was prior to the biden administration? concrete examples of that because it's been politicized. we have people arguing on both sides. we're not quite pumping more than we had. there is the pandemic that's shut down wells and it's coming back do you have concrete examples of federal regulation that makes it more difficult >> frankly there's federal lands. it's mainly under state and private lands. that's been a great advantage. yes, i've talked to a number of producers in north dakota. remember, we have a number of smaller independents, continental resources type and the larger ones including kpeks on they're not all created the same they're largely based on being

sent by a regular one. i sat on the banking committee it's a chilling effect you know about markets and pricing those. there's a chillying effect on both moves it's a symbol of the larger issue of really bad signals being sent, whether it's through regulation, taxation, flirting with moderna in venezuela or the -- you know t ayatollah in iran to fill the voids. north dakota is down about 400 to 500,000 barrel as day to our peak, and if the right capital messages are being sent to the markets, i think we could pick up, you know, another couple 400 to a thousand barrels a day, but it has to be a midterm to long-term play

we ought to have a long-term play to renewables and at the same time meet the moment and meet the crisis. by the way, can we ground john kerry's airplane and not send him out to talk? >> i know, i know. i etweeted something over the weekend that was -- i put seriously, and i didn't put the question marks then you doan know if i'm agreeing with him or disagreeing. i don't want any trouble i don't want any trouble senator, as far as -- awe you've got to do is read the executive order from them. you can watch the president say before he's election i'm going to theer end it saying, now if you need it, who, me it's rich to watch.

>> it is rich to watch you think of senator raskin who's been nominated to be vice chair of -- >> liesman is going to be mad. i can tell he's chafing? >> $4 a barrel, joe. >> i'm sorry joe. >> i'm sorry it seems lie her nomination is not that much of a hindrance but i respect the senator. >> you don't decide -- >> $70 of -- >> i can't pick the dakota i want more. where's waldorf, senator is that north or south >> that's in south dakota. come through fargo and bismark bring steve with you we'll introduce him to some people in the business

we'll have a nice meal. >> good ychltd he can open his eyes. >> steve knows a lot of people in the business. >> after more than two weeks of war, what do we know about the russian leader in his going after ukraine? we're going to talk about that when "squawk box" returns. . that's why i have my finance team, randomly hurl things at me. it's also why we use workday. it gives us insights, so we quickly pivot our strategy, people, planning, you name it. sorry, sir. i will aim straight at your next step. see that you do. would you like some coffee? workday. the finance, hr, and planning system for a changing world. ♪

as a small business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind.. so start saving with comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. so boost your bottom line by switching today. get the new samsung galaxy s22 series on comcast business mobile and for a limited time save up to $750 on a new samsung device with eligible trade-in.

still to come this morning, the top moves, all of this as we get ready for a big market week wurngs that we expect llwi bring a big fed rate hike. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc hy. we exercise. i noticed i wasn't as sharp as i used to be. my wife introduced me to prevagen and so i said "yeah, i'll try it out." i noticed that i felt sharper, i felt like i was able to respond to things quicker. and i thought, yeah, it works for me. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. [copy machine printing] ♪

♪ who would've thought printing... could lead to growing trees. ♪

welcome back russia is showing some signs it might want to negotiate. meanwhile they say they're beginning to engage constructively now we want to talk about the endgame and what that would mean for national relations and global business. joining us now is the distinguished council at the foreign relations. tom, you gave me permission to

say you were a source of mine at the state department although i will say i got better information from the australians, canadians, and brits than i did from you. >> i think that's true. >> let me start out with what i think is of most interest to our viewers. what is the potential engage when it comes to russian sanctions? if you were advising the biden administration when it comes to sanctions, what would be triggers if any at all for lifting them >> well, there are a couple. first, there has to be a cease-fire and a renegotiating process. those would be the first indications we should perhaps think about using sanctions, but it goes beyond that. i don't think the administration is going to ease sanctions until there is some sort of negotiated solution to to this problem and that negotiating solution has to include a russia commitment to

repairing ukraine, to compensate for all the damage it's done in the last several weeks and will continue to do as long as this conflict grinds on. >> are we in the game here of regime change, tom, or is that not something that is a stated goal of our policy, or is it an unstated goal? >> that's not a stated goal of our policy at this point certainly we're trying to make this conflict as complicated as possible -- as costly as possible for president putin we would like to see what's been provided so they come to their own conclusion that perhaps it's time for someone else to be at the head of the russian state. >> what kind of effectiveness of sanctions do we have it strikes me we might have the oligarch game backward that it's putin that gives power to the

oligarchs, not the other way around and does putin care how much pain the russian people ever feel. >> well, let's start with the oligarchs. i mean it's clear that putin relies on the collapse the sanctions tend to make these oligarchs each individually more dependent on putin and less likely to move against him in any serious way. the pain for the russian people, think i from putin's standpoint the russians are very resilient. they're willing to sacrifice for the tremendous amount of what he sees as their national interest. i don't think he's overly concerned about it at this point. what he is concerned about is that small middle class. these people have been protesting in moscow, st. petersburg, and the other large cities across russia this is in a sense russia's future this is a professional class,

and he is slowly losing them as this conflict grinds on. >> tom, when i look at pictures from ukraine of the russian army and juxtapose that with pictures of the interior ministry in ru russia, i see in tlaert a russian military source. are they still oman troops is that what they call them? >> yeah, they still are, and it makes it very difficult. i mean putin and his colleagues really have cracked down hard in opposition over the past several months or years beginning with the attacks on the very brave leader in navalny. i think a lot of people have heard about him. they've dismantled his organization last year they've closed down independent sources of news.

they've really bolted down the country in the last several months i think in anticipation of this invasion and protests it might elicit nevertheless, we've seen hundreds if not thousands of rugs coming out and protesting the war that they don't believe is in their interest. >> tom, we're almost out of time, but can you imagine the endgame and how this ends up >> i think it ends up in a negotiating solution that will inform some sort of ukrainian neutrality, perhaps some decisions on crimea and the donbas region. we're looking for a negotiated solution nobody want this war to grind on because of the devastation that it's causing not only to russia and ukraine, but we've seen it also in the global economy. >> tom graham, thanks for joining us this morning. becky? >> you're welcome. >> thanks, steve you're it. >> i'm it. coming up, how far is the u.s. from true energy

independence and what place does knew calory have in future power generations? we're going to talk about that "squawk box" is coming right back

a little less than an hour until the opening on wall

street dom chu joins us with some of the top movers before the opening bell hey, dom. >> some of the more active ones right now include head line-driven one, especially those in defense contracting we'll start with lockheed martin their shares are up 2% lockheed martin getting some help in part due to reports from reuters citing sources familiar that the german government may look to use lockheed martin's jet flighter flight to join is aging fleet of tornado aircraft. that is helping lockheed martin shares, up by 2% remember, since the start of the conflict between russia and ukraine, you've seen the defense contractors move sharply higher. the bank stocks in focus, certainly always on a fed decision week, but even more so today given the move higher in long end rates especially for the 10-year treasury moving up

about 2.07-2.08 mark some of the regional banks, citizens up, near 50%. fict third, keycorp, bank of america and jpmorgan and then a check on the most popular tickers searched on our website on cnbc.com from friday's full day session. i would point out the ten-year full-day yield returns to the top spot and wti crude remains in the top five it ooh te it's the most searched ticker. amazon one of the top ten. rivian automotive, tesla, and docusign also in the top ten, as always, guys, the top ten, top 50 on my twitter fe

feed @thedomino. the united states relies almost entirely on force suppliers for the fuel that feeds our nuclear power plant. that include 20s% coming from russia in a new op-ed he said that's a big risk for our energy independence let's welcome in ed mcginnis he's now the ceo of curio, a new innovation and technology development company. thank you for being here, ed this is not something people think about too frequently we say all the time we want-mile-an-hour endefense and want american independence just as germany would like. you point out you can't get the fuel for any of those things from here in america or in germany too. >> in fact, we do rely 20% of our lurk tristy in this country comes from nuclear a lot of people just don't

realize that it also represents over 50% of our clean energy that's a total of all wind, solar, hydro combined. that's correct we rely on virtually 100% for our virtual fuel fortunately we have one european facility in the united states that provides about a third of our fuel but a third is not enough. one is not enough. and not having any american suppliers is absolutely not where we should be >> what happened how did we get to this position? i always thought of this being something we could entirely handle ourselves. >> it's been decade over decade of, frankly, having policies that have not supported or prioritized domestic production of nuclear fuel. over the years we've allowed ourselves to be, frankly, penetrated by foreign state-owned companies in the

large part russia provides over -- or approximately 20% of our enriched fuel services to this day. that is substantial. we need to re-establish not only our enrichment capability, that is the key dpoenlt to producing nuclear fuel, but we need to recycle our nuclear materials. we have a huge stockpile, the largest untapped stockpile of clean energy in the form of nuclear waste we call waste, but it's anything but waste. my company, curio, is one of those companies looking to unlock the potential of our domestic nuclear fuel supply, get us out from independence on foreign suppliers and do it in an environmentally sustainable way by recycling this nuclear material. >> you say the policies have set it up so it doesn't go this way. there's not funds really lid available from the private

markets to do this what are the roadblocks standing in the way >> the roadblocks are -- first of all, the law needs to be ad adjusted in the united states nuclear material coming out of the nuclear reactor is considered essentially waste, not recycle. so we're working with congress, looking to congress to make some adjustments to allow the industry to come up with innovative ways to fully maximize these assets in our country. most people don't realize it, but when you have nuclear fuel going in a reactor when you pull it out after running 18 to 24 months, you've only used 4% of the energy value. that's 96% that's not being used right now we're treating it as waste. again, as indicated, it'sing in but waste. france and other countries leading nuclear countries recycle their material now the united states due to policies over the years going all the way back to carter, we

ceased recycling those days are gone. we need to recycle we need to be thoughtful about this and reclaim our energy production and energy independent and nuclear supply se sector. >> don't laugh it's off the wall. i know you are kmimed to renewable energy it's also pie day. there was something called nuclear reactions or condensed matter, something that would make the amount of energy, you could never harness it, and it would be cleaner and easier. we had a brief time we thought it would be possible people are working on it do. you know if there's something like coal fusion >> fusion is something being pursued including in the industry, there's an old sagging, you're 50 years out from fusion or coal fusion certainly my view is all of the above.

we need to push the envelope for technology development but i believe as a nuclear expert that nuclear energy is an essential part of that, whether it's a bridge over the next 50 to 100 years or not. but we certainly see strong movements in the fusion, coal fusion air yachl but, again, nuclear energy is a vital element. there's no way around it whether it's for carbon reduction targets or whether it's energy security, or jest meeting the resilient supply, the base load supply of electricity as our economy becomes more and more electrified. >> yeah. your op-ed points out we're very reliant on chynna for aspects of wind and solar maybe it's something we don't think about until it comes back to bite us. >> thanks for joining us. >> how far can you go out? >> 3.14. >> 3.15. >> you used to no. >> did you know einstein --

that's weird >> i didn't know that. that's super cool. >> my son told me that yesterday. coming up next, the return -- i say the return of jim cramer we're going to get jim's first take on the trading day ahead and another key we fekor the market stay tuned you'rewatching "squawk box." 3.1415 - ♪♪ making friends again, billy? i like to keep my enemies close. guys, excuse me. i didn't quite get that. i'm hard of hearing. ♪♪ oh hey, don't forget about the tense music too. would you say tense? i'd say suspenseful. aren't they the same thing? can we move on guys, please? alexa, turn on the subtitles. and dim the lights.

ok, dimming the lights. what does the future of strength look like? it's dynamic weight that adjusts for you in real time for a more efficient workout. and you can only experience it... (sigh) on tonal. ♪♪

let's get down to the new

york stock exchange. guess who's back jim cramer joins us. jim, it's good to see you again. a lot can happen in a week and we missed you. get us up to speed on what you're thinking about all of this >> i still believe there's multiple negatives i hope that the talks go well, but i have very little expectation. i know when the fed makes its first move typically -- no, not typically, every time the market goes up, and we have to get to that point we're not there yet. the interest rate looks so good today. oil is the greatest hedge there is, and oil is down today. t trying to find something safe, becky, is not easy. >> a lot of it there are ways to confound any investor out there what do you tell people? if there aren't safe havens, do you kind of hang back a little bit.

>> we tell them when you get up moves like today, you can lighten up on some things. typically i what happens, we go to bed, nasdaq is up, we get up, nasdaq is up, we get to work, xincheng what were those future buyers thinking i find the futures are meaningless, but we have to focus on companies if they have exposure to extend cheng, it's not good. >> we knew the fed -- jay powell told us he was going to raise a quarter point. that's the plan coming from the fomc meeting i think it's become a lot more complicated. and then what? because of what you've seen with covid back in china and then trying to keep their zero tolerance policy and because of what you've seen in the economy and all that they will have the

on the eu countries. >> that's why i'm so thrilled jay powell is a federal reserve chairman i love dick fisher, but the idea they're behind the curve, behind the curve, behind the curve, i've got to tell you, you want to throw more things move i just think that the whole notion of this economy slowing down is front and center, and i just think the idea that a soft landing is going to be hard, if only just because i think there's so many stocks that are sinking in the recession >> jim, this may be a crazy question but is there a time when a trust looks at a 182 yield on the two-year or a 209 on the ten and say, you know what that's not a bad use of my money. >> yeah, you raise cash here that's the way we have historically done it with the trust for 17 years whenever we feel that things are a little dicey, you want to raise cash into strong moves like we have this morning. it's just coopkind of a natural. that's what we'll do. >> thank you

it is good to have you back. i know we'll be hearing a lot more from you in just a few minutes. >> thank you >> we want to remind you, if you haven't done this already, you've got to sign up for the new cnbc investing club. you can do it and find out more at cc.m/inecb.nbcojothlu or point your phone at the screen it will take you right there "squawk box" will be right back. ohhh, mark is about to become a living piñata. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac? [whimpers] i don't think he has any candy in there. am i at least going to get hit hard enough to forget this? nobody is going to forget this, ever. [bat hitting] ohhhh! i'mma call his momma. aflac! ♪ aflac! official partner of march madness. as a main street bank, pnc has helped over 7 million kids develop their passion for learning. and now we're providing 88 billion dollars to support underserved communities... ...helping us all move forward financially.

pnc bank: see how we can make a difference for you. this is the new world of work. each day looks different than the last. but whatever work becomes, the world works with servicenow. for investors who can navigate this landscape, but wleveraging gold,omes, a strategic and sustainable asset... the path is gilded with the potential for rich returns. you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

several financial firms announcing this morning that they're pulling back from doing business in russia leslie picker joins us now with roundup. hi leslie. >> hey, joe, these announcements came fast and furious last week. wall street's announcements started with goldman sachs, soon followed by morgan stanley they planned to unwind ties with russia and halt new ones, seeking to be in compliance amid sanctions in the region. it's not as simple as just turning the lights out, though as jpmorgan described it they are helping clients address and close out pre-existing obligations and manage their russia-related risk. deutsche bank's cf o', told cnc it was not practical to close

its russian business but late on friday it pivoted and said it would be winding down its russian operations shares surging 9% today on that news citi has the biggest presence in russia among the big u.s. banks making its departure from the region all the more complicated. the firm disclosed about $10 billion in russian exposure, eunique to citi is its russian consumer business it's been trying to sell since well before the conflict it's operated that business on a limited basis. just this morning, allion said it would no longer ensure through russia and stop investing in its asset managed division. more than half an hour until the opening bell joining us to talk the markets, liz young head of investment strategy at sofi you have seen a bit of a change in investor sentiment, perhaps less of the dip buying and then holding. you call investors at this point fragile, and why wouldn't they be, but what does that translate

into for the rest of the year. >> well,i mean, if you just look in the immediate term, there has been a transition sentiment wise in investors, and it's been happening even before some of this crisis in russia/ukraine, where you had this idea that we've made a decent amount of money the market feels fragile because of the headwinds when they get an opportunity to sell stuff they have fwagains i they are selling the rips. i think we're going to continue to see that. when you look at what usually happens after the hiking cycle begins, we start to relax and i think thise-- is and things sta calm down. it's tempting to try to call bottoms. unfortunately i think we're going to see a couple different types of bottoms in the first half the second half if we start to get used to where we are economically and if some of the tensions kauncalm down overseaso could have a second half that's more smooth.

>> the idea of trying to call a bottom, you think this could be a bottom at this point because of the pervasive negativity? it may not be the only bottom we see this year. you're seeing some trouble with upward -- maintaining an upward bias for the year. you think we may have serial bottoms? >> that's probably a good way to put it, serial bottoms what you want to see is confirmation of a bottom we haven't really had that we haven't seen these extreme bearish sentiments in the market action everybody keeps talking about having bearish sentiment, but the action in the market hasn't been extremely bearish yet i think it still can get worse from here. this is obviously a big week this will be a pivotal week in the market, and hopefully we have a little bit of a relief after we finally get a statement from the fed and we can move along. there's also a long period of time between this fed meeting and the next one where we have to reset our expectations again, and that could be a little bit

painful. >> we're still -- you're focusing more on the fed than the war, and when you look at the war, do you really look at it from the prism of what it does to energy prices? what it does to the fed more than just the -- i guess as an analyst for stocks, you're not a geopolitical analyst, so that's the way you have to view it? >> yeah, and when you think about the effects of the war, you think about commodity prices, energy prices, and the reason that we're focusing on the fed this week is because when all of those prices bake through into the economy that's already worried about inflation, that really is the focus the market has to take for the next few days now, if things don't deescalate in a decent time frame, then obviously we've got much longer term effects and you have global growth effects that could take shape, especially if europe falls into recession then that starts to be a domino effect around the globe. that's something in the next two weeks we probably have to watch

much more closely. it's not lost on me that everybody's estimates of growth and earnings have come down over the last couple of weeks as well. >> do you think -- that's a bad term, do you think we're pollyannaish about stillat thi point the default move for most investors and even strategists is that the worst geopolitical events rarely come to pass so let's just assume that this is going to work itself out. could that be a mistake if we're looking at potentially the beginning of a protracted conflict that even involves nato down the road? you'd be selling things wouldn't you? the default position is that is not going to happen? >> yeah, i think it would be naive to assume that this won't be an issue that lasts longer or that permeates through different parts of the global economy. we just don't know yet and when you look at spikes in geopolitical tension, they do

tend to be just that, a spike in the near-term that comes back down, but that doesn't mean that there aren't going to be effects that bake through into inflation, that cause shallow recessions in some regions. >> all right, liz, thank you thanks for being on this morning. at least when you look at fed stuff, six of them -- >> six baked in. >> six are now -- >> fed survey tomorrow make sure you join us tomorrow, "squawk on the street" right now. thanks, steve. >> pleasure. good monday morning, and welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faker along with jim cramer, carl quintanilla has the morning off. let's get a look at futures as we start another trading week. we appear to be ready to do that on an up note, something that would be a change from the recent moves we've seen in the market, and we do start there with our road map this morning it is an