shannon. >> abbott labs health care is a defensive in this market. >> mr. wonderful >> leave the penguin walking in the opposite direction apple here time to look interesting >> paramount continually underestimated by analysts >> i'll see you in "overtime". "the exchange" is now. >> see you at 4:00, scott. looking forward to it. i'm kelly evan rates are popping ahead of the fed's meeting this week. even as the chorus of voice warning about recession continues to grow. is the fed about to make an epic mistake or would not hiking be the larger error plus chinese stocks getting crushed gren today the tech names in particular bobby's down 30% in a month. gets a major down graid by jpmorgan is this delisting worries or is covid the new scare? emerging markets down nearly

15% on average as the dollar and oil prices have spiked but there are some bright spots. we'll look at who they are and why. first, though, let's get to dom with the latest market numbers we've lost some steam. much more so than we did earlier on so far. if you look right now at the markets, it's mixed. it was solidly green earlier today. but the dow industrials are up 100 points right now it doesn't seem bad, but at the highs we were up 451 points. at the lows we were up roughly 29 we're tilting more toward the lower end of the trading range so far today it has been an outperformer all day. the s&p 500, 4181 the last trade. down 22 points half of one percent. 4181 down 230 points now for the nasdaq composite off nearly 2 % we'll continue to watch that underperformance in the trade come out one of the key parts is what's happening in the macro environment. if you look at some of the trades that we are watching closely, take a look at things like say what's happening with

wti crude. 10 $2.08 the reason why it's important, just in the past week or so we were up at $130 north of that for wti crude. at the lows, 99 .76. we traded below $100 benchmark crude prices the interest rate, watch what's happening there. we hit on the ten-year note yield. the highest since july of 2019 currently just a hair below 2 .12 %. as you can see, that trade has been fairly momentous in terms of the selloff and bonds and the rise higher in yields. that is leading to come reverberations in the marketplace in the tech oriented stocks but what's happening in the key sector in financials one of the outperforming sectors, regional banks. all up roughly 4% to 5% at this stage. even the big money center like bank of america and jpmorganchase, up. financials in focus given the big rate decision coming up on

wednesday from the fed one last place to watch because there's so many moving parts kelly, the chinese internet names. j.d.com and baidu among the worst performing stocks in the nasdaq 100 the megacaps down 15%. 8 % for those cams and csi chinese internet etf down 10% in this trade i can't say it it's been a down trend the entire time. every time you think there's a bounce, kelly, it tends to go even lower after that. >> absolutely. >> one step forward, two steps back keep an eye on that chinese internet trade >> all-time low for the k-web. it listed in 2013. as dom mentioned, yields are on the rise. they've continued to rise throughout the session the ten-year just below 212. that's a session high. the 30-year nearing 2 .5%. the five-year around 2.06% as you can see, look at the

green numbers. that's the two-year on top the yield curve is top it's signaling the fed is about to make a major tightening mistake. my next guest warned markets would sell off when the fed began tapering where does he see u.s. stocks going now as rate hikes are about to kick off? joining me is a managing partner and director of research barry, it's good to see you again. qe is over rate hikes are about to begin. where does that leave stocks >> well, we had what i expected as you just referenced, which was the typical 10 tkt to 12% correction when the fed makes the first big significant policy pivot. so for me we've had an appropriate adjustment to the fed starting to normalize policy so for -- i think in part we talked about a couple of the different channels and the way tightening monetary policy or loose policy for that matter affects the markets. there's expectations of the rate path well, that's been pretty well --

we've made a significant adjustment there obviously we've had a fantastic move higher and two-year note yields, for example. there's also real rates. a big move higher, the ten-year from negative 110 basis points all the way to 40 and change but it's backed up on the russian invasion there's some vulnerability to a snapback there but for me the real issue is the volatility channel >> sure. >> and that volatility channel comes because the fed buys 100 % of the supply of mortgage backed securities, was reinvesting $50 billion a month, when that risk gets transferred back to the sell side, that is going to cause a big move in the value at risk measure and in general. but we had the move index which is short-term vol have a fantastic spike higher once a 1.8 standard deviation

above the long-term mean put those things together, i think we're in a position to rally out of wednesday's meeting. because we've had the appropriated adjustment and a big move in expectations around rate policy and we've even moved the least appreciate bud for me biggest risk which is interest rate vol and how that permeates across other asset classes >> you think we could see maybe a little bit here of sell the news, buy the fact when the fed actually hikes them wednesday. let me zoom out and ask a bigger question i'm hearing and people are starting to ask all the time, because they're worried about stagflation. can you and should you own u.s. equities right now what about how equities performed in the 1970 s or as we've seen during whatever past period of inflation you want to pick what about stagflation if we're heading that direction what about the yield curve i mean, can you own u.s. equities for the next couple of years here and actually do pretty well? >> i absolutely think you can,

but there is some -- some caveats to what i'm going to say. there always is. but i'm not an economist but a strategist nonetheless, if you look at the period of the 60s when we went from a disinflationary regime like we had in the 2010 yz, the 50s and tens were similar from a monetary policy regular -- bank regulatory policy perspective. we got into that reflation nar regime in the 60s. we had stronger nominal growth and faster earnings growth earnings growth picked up from 8% to 9% to 15 % in the 60s. the risk is that we jump straight to the 70s and get into a real rapid inflation environment. so the key really is that inflation settles down to something around or less than 4% i actually think the corporate sector is fine in that environment. the bond market is not but the corporate sector could be so i don't think stagflation is a big issue. i know people have been focussed on issues like falling consumer

confidence for me, these are better political indicators than they are economic indicators. this morning the new york fed survey came out and said spending plans hit their highest level ever since they started that survey back in 2013 so i'm not really worried about the consumers' ability to absorb higher gasoline prices i think they'll be fine. there's two second order effects in the russian inflation one is higher inflation. that's a problem but it's also going to mean higher capital investment. the whole deglobalization theme is becoming really pervasive that's a net positive for u.s. equities i think it will take places like europe long tore get around to that watch germany. they will be a likely first mover away from being reliant on exports. for places like china which i've been bearish on, it's going to be a long time for them to make any sort of adjustments in in that environment, reflation nar regime, deglobalization, i

think you want to be in u.s. equities not tech and surely not the -- >> we're hearing more and more about the risks for different asset classes. sticking with u.s. equities. thank you for your time. great to see you today >> thanks. now, the market is bracing for the fed's first pandemic rate hike this week. my next guest expects the central bank to remain in inflation fighting mode despite the china covid shutdowns and ukraine war. joining me is the chief financial economist at jeffries. anita, what do you say to those who point to the yield curve among the other factors and say this fed is going to tighten us into a recession >> well, the fed hasn't even hiked a single time yet. at this point i think there's no debate that they need to get

started. i think the signaling will be open-ended i don't necessarily think they're going to commit themselves to a series of hikes. but i think the rhetoric is going to be such that inflation risks are just greater right now than growth risks. and i think it's reasonable to expect 25 bits increment moves that pretty much we're needing this year. the risks are going faster rather than slower because, again, i just think that inflation expectations here are really at risk of deanchoring. that has to be the number one priority of the fed. >> what about china? you see what's going on there. if they can't control the spread of omicron and stick with zero covid, they're going to have to shut down bigger parts of the economy. shouldn't we expect to see a ripple impact on demand and supply >> that's right. but again, i think it's a question of which one of those risks is a bigger issue that the fed needs to address right now

and the fact is that you know, we are kind of looking at a backdrop where yes, supply on top of supply shock, and the consumers' response so far has not been to cut spending and, in fact, that survey from this morning that your previous guest alluded to says the consumer, they're not saying hey, it's cost me more to buy gas food so i have to spend less on other items. they're saying we're going to spend more we're going to cover the increased costs, but we're not going to cut spending. and that means that've phenomenon it starts out as a a series of supply shocks, demand is sustaining the inflationary forces and again, i think that has to be the number one concern at the fed. because at this point, it's really their credibility on the line and look, i think also we have to keep in mind that the fed started this year with a baseline forecast of 4%. so even if you sort of assume a

worst case snare joe in oil and add the supply shocks, chances are that we're still going to end up with an economy that's growing above trend, and again, inflation that's just way, way above where the fed really wants to see it and so i think the outcome is pretty clear. >> so to re -- capture your point, you say the oil shock not significant enough to put a meaningful dent in u.s. growth some dent but not a meaningful one. risks to inflation are greater the inflated data points show broadening price pressures let's leave it with the inflation forecast at this point. we've seen scary headlines about how the cpi could be 9 % in the next reading what's the more significant take away that people should have in mind when it comes to the dynamics for inflation right now? >> yeah. look, whether we take it 8.25%, i don't think that's too relevant i think the bigger question is are we going to see second order effects on inflation, and are

base case before the war was inflation would slow, but to 3% by the end of the year we thought the labor market would put a floor under core inflation under 3% if we get the second order effects and the energy and food price increases start to eat through, you could potentially end up higher. and that means that even as part of this inflation story self-corrects, there's going to be a significant chunk that doesn't, and that will ultimately have to be squeezed out by the fed >> all right we'll leave it there thanks again for your time it will be a big week. we appreciate it quick programming note we have a very special edition of the exchange in power lunch we're combining it on wednesday. tyler will be outside the federal reserve starting at 1:00 p.m. with full coverage i'll be here it will be very fun and exciting and lively we anticipate. coming up, crude's massive reversal with oil breaking below $100 a barrel. is that just an aberration or was the spike to 130 the

aberration that's next. plus chinese tech stocks are tumbling again today as losses in the k-web etf approach 80 % from the last february highs a live report from china on the covid outbreak let's get a check on the markets. dow hanging onto gains up 59 points right now. that's it. the s&p now down 25. look at the nasdaq down 245 points almost 2%. we're back in a moment

this is the new world of work. each day looks different than the last. but whatever work becomes, the world works with servicenow. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

welcome back to "the exchange". after a historic surge that sent crude past the $130 a barrel mark last tuesday, the commodity has fallen more than 16% since and crossed below $100 a barrel earlier. so should you bail on energy stocks joining me now is john, again, capital's co-founder and cnbc contributor. you were bearish when we spoke last week. where do you stand now after this latest adjustment >> well, i think the $100 mark is a tough nut to track to the downside i think it will give way particularly if there's any positive news or progress in the ukraine/russia talks that's a big factor here one of the reasons that i've been somewhat negative on this

price going much higher is the fact that the bulk of the russian crude oil output is remaining on the market. as a matter of fact, india stepped up to buy cargoes of russian crude they're getting at a steep discount it makes sense for them to fill the buying void that emerged from the u.s. and uk in particular to the extent we can keep the oil on the market, other sources can go to other places we have relative calm at the moment also too, the other big news for the crude oil market just quickly is the lockdown in china. 18 million people forced to stay at home not drive, not consume big issue. >> let me circle back to that in a second there's both good and bad news in what you're day saying about the oil price. maybe 130 isn't sustainable right now. but you don't see us going below 100. let's call that $4 a gallon for gasoline similar to what americans have

already been paying. it still takes a toll. what does that mean for the energy stocks? >> well, it takes a toll i have a real problem with the economists trying to compare the 1970 situation with this one saying it's not applicable 70% of our economy is consumer 70% of our economy is getting hammered right now at the gas pump i'll leave it at that for the other folks to hash out. but what it means for the energy companies is that they're going to continue to have substantial earnings earnings power exxon mobile could return to being the most profitable company in the world once again. a position that it held a number of years ago and since slipped appreciably. so there is great news in the oil patch right now. and it's also going to encourage them all to drill more so the ceo of hess last week highlighted this they can't ignore the rates of return they don't want to dig their own grave like what happened in the height of the pandemic

but they're certainly going to put shovels in the ground and drill more here in order to capture this amazing price >> so they're in let's call it a sweet spot in terms of being incentivize to produce more, making more money per barrel i can't imagine that exxon wants the head lines being the most profitable company in the world when you have democrats proposing a win fall profits tax. >> yes, that's how we go in the cycles next they'll come for the speculators in terms of what's driving the oil price. i think we're seeing the value of our u.s. energy oil and production and natural gas pruk right now. and the last thing you want to do is disincentivize companies from drilling more and being profitable from it you know, this is not a win fall, and should we have helped them out when oil prices traded to negative 40 during the height of the pandemic? it's probably one of the most

unfair proposals i've heard in a long time. even though this is certainly something that's aggravating to the consumer, the fact of the matter is there is a war there is russian oil being embargoed by the u.s. and the united kingdom it could go further than that. and if it does, then we'll be talking about a scarcity, and this harsh economic reality, the price gets to a point where rationing becomes required because of the lack of affordability. >> yeah. >> that's partly what keeps the price from soaring ever higher >> quick parting thought since you put your finger on it. the issues with china, a big reason crude is sinking. do you think the market is overreacting to the lockdown how big is this exposure potentially? >> it's rather large, because china takes this brute force approach to controlling covid. and china's economy was already teetering in my view in terms of its economic power and

manufacturing. so if we lose china to degree with respect to nand for petroleum, because of the energy intensity, the crude oil market is going to have a potential big problem on its hands >> thank you we appreciate it today >> thank you oil broke below 100 earlier. a little above that level now. ahead, we'll talk about how sanctions in russia are impacting priorities here at home we'll hear from the deputy treasury secretary and new details on the specific investments targeted by the doj's kleptocapture task force. it includes a little town that could get a big wakeup call from congress the index clinging onto gains. we have an even split between advancers and decliners. bigger declines. american express leading the way. nike the bgeigst laggard we're back in a moment to fill portfolio gaps and target specific goals.

strengthening client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. ♪ ♪ i call it.... the wheel. ok, this is a miss. it's a fork. i got ten forks right here, baby. a toilet? we're not animals. we go outside like humans. nobody's going to the moon, ever! why not? it's too far! it's far. like i was saying, it's ftx, it's a safe and easy way to get into crypto. ehh, i don't think so. ♪ ♪ and i am never wrong about this stuff. never. (jane) we really expanded our family... for the wireless savings. then, my sister told me about visible. (sister) get unlimited data for as low as $25 a month. no family needed. (vo) visible. try us for free before you switch.

at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner

with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. welcome back to "the exchange dow was up 451 points this morning. only up 85 right now 4182 the lows were around 4122. the nasdaq, a lot of pressure. nasdaq down 239 or almost 2% financials health care leading the way. financials helped by the higher move in interest rates energy is the biggest laggard with the reversal in oil prices. here are the other mover this is hour yum china after a dramatic decline in same store sales. they're saying the covid situation in china has, quote,

rapidly deteriorated shares down 2 %. they've already been under pressure as we've covered in the past week. mccau casinos tumbling las vegas sands, wynn down between 5. and lvs, more than 11% it's back to 32. the rising cases in china are driving up the vaccine stocks. relief for those companies moderna up 10% to 152. elsewhere, netflix trading at the lowest levels since before the pandemic so it's gone all the way full circle back. here's a look at the two-year charts netflix 332 today. down 44 % this year on pace for the fifth straight monthly loss and the worst losing streak since the year it went public in 2002 let's get a cnbc news update >> ukrainian officials say a

russian air strike has killed at least one person and injured six. it did extensive damage to apartment buildings and homes. kharkiv, the mayor says that russian forces are firing at the city nonstop russia's deadly attack of a large ukrainian base over the weekend was carried out with cruise missiles launched from russian air space according to a senior u.s. defense official the official says that the attack will not affect the military resupply effort from the west for ukraine and on the news tonight, poland's two biggest cities say they're running out of room for new ukrainian refugees a look at the situation on the ground tonight at 7 eastern. the cdc lowering the warning for cruise ships saying the risk is moderate. that means the agency is no longer recommending people avoid cruises if they haven increased risk of illness for covid.

good news for the cruise lines >> a big spike in demand coming up, the chinese tech stocks are getting rushed again today. alibaba, baidu why are investors staying away we'll have that next dictn d thomdiis year in this inreioanwi cmoties on the rise it could many more room to run. a look at emerging opportunities coming up.

welcome back the spread of covid in china has forced the closure of fox con's head quarters as the omicron variant is testing china's zero covid strategy chinese and hong kong stocks down sharply as a result it also comes as china is walking a tight rope in the dealings with russia u.s. and chinese officials meeting in rome to talk about competition and the war in ukraine. we have more from beijing. >> reporter: thank you so much the talks are meant to remind china of the consequences of the apparent alignment with russia so far the game plan for china

seems to have been to support russia and also to maintain an anti-west alliance while at the same time appearing neutral enough to keep the economically vital relationships that it has with the u.s. and with europe. however, increasingly china has been more pro russia in the statements it's been consistently blaming the u.s. for the ukraine crisis. also president xi recently heavily criticized the western sanctions as well as the expansion of nato. and then just today the foreign ministry denied the reports that u.s. officials had suggested that china was asked by russia to assist with military gear saying this is false information. all the while state media has been amplifying russia's theories that u.s. bio labs, the u.s. has been operating bio labs in ukraine

now, before his visit the nsa adviser jake sullivan said he was going to be speaking with china's top diplomat about the potential consequences if there is what he had said, a large scale sanctions evasion. this, of course, then puts china in an uncomfortable position where it doesn't like to be. where it has to make tough choices when it comes to foreign policy or what happens risk a harder break with the u.s. and its allies >> and at the same time, now facing the worst covid outbreak they've had in china in two years. right? >> yeah. that's right so far 51 million people here are in lockdown or in partial lockdown including in a tech hub of when jen. the entire population being tested for a third time in testing centers that are makeshift like the one behind me

in shenzhen. the entire city has been told that the businesses there that are nonessential need to be suspended for at least a week. a travel has been cut. public transport has been cut. and fox con -- suppliers of apple have said they have been able to put in place some backup plans. fox con said in a statement that due to our diversified production sites in china, we adjusted to minimize the impact. other chinese cities have been tightening covid curbs including shanghai shanghai is now rumored to be considering diverting international flights away from the city this week and then beijing also cancelled large scale events and is urging its residents not to travel. >> huge factor for global growth

and inflation the way that covid goes there thank you so much. we appreciate it china trying to play all sides of the ukraine conflict, but it's nevertheless facing a revolt led by global investors and shareholders against many major companies. how might that pressure of the chinese to help resolve the war on ukraine my next guest has thoughts the chief strategist with clock tower group. you come at this from an interesting angle pointing out it's not like the white house has cracked down on china at all here as the posture remains an open question going forward. but investors certainly have why is that? >> well, i think in my conversations with many capital al cay or thes, they don't have time to really figure out who is on whose side. this looks very much like a reestablishment of a binary world order. now, i don't think one is being reestablished, but for the time being, it looks like the west has rebuild the transatlantic

relationship and china season oh russia's side. and that's just the way the perception in the west is. and given the private sector voluntary sanctions against russia which really is the most fascinating outcome of this war, how quickly and how aligned all corporates have been on basically getting out of russia, a lot of capital allocators are doing the same with china. >> and could it actually change the outcome here having seen a glimpse of what that could look like if china is perceived as aligning more closely with russia at this point could they now try to attack in a different direction saying they want to be more of an asher of a solution, maybe not supplying with weapons as they denied they would. in other words, could that change the outcome and their decision making here >> you know, i think it's going to be a pretty profound shift in

u.s./china relations one thing is for sure. this sort of like beijing is basically performing cart wheels on a beach it's trying to do this elaborate dance where it tries to csignal it wasn't on the russia side and not america's side it seems that's not enough in the world of twitter, in the world of social media, you're on one side or another really quickly. and i don't think china wants to be cancelled particularly at a time as your colleague pointed out, when the domestic economy and domestic demand households, private sector is basically joefr leveraged. policy is pushing on a string, and the only thing that's worked in china has been exports. >> so marco, would you given that some of these stocks now are down 80% from the highs, would you look at any of them as potential opportunities for american investors who want to go that route? would you caution them to stay away for the time being? and what are the other

opportunities for people's portfolios that you see cropping up right now >> well, commodities have been the best buy forever n. i think we talked about this several weeks ago. wheat and gold have done really well a lot of the geo political risk premium in the commodities markets is coming off. i prefer gold and wheat relative to oil, because there are fundamental reasons you want to be in those. as for buying chinese adr, there needs to be clarity. they can't tonight with the elaborate cart wheel dance they need to choose sides, and they need to be constructive, or else the private sector, not the white house, not the u.s. government, the private sector, is going to put them in that cancellation policy. there's going to be #cancel beijing just like there is one cancel china, cancel russia. i don't think they want to be in that >> fascinating great to have you today. thank you for your thoughts. be sure to tune in at the

top of the hour for the exclusive interview with erik schmidt. he's going to talk about the importance of building up 5g to compete with china coming up, the justice department targeting fin tech in the hunt for russian oligarchs first we'll hear from the man in charge of sanctions, the deputy treasury secretary on their impact and what steps could be next. we're ba in cka moment on "the exchange". ♪♪ ♪♪ take the world by cloud. accenture let there be change.

[bushes rustling] [door opening] ♪dramatic music♪ yes! hon! the weathertech's here. ♪ weathertech is the ultimate protection for your vehicle. laser-measured floorliners... no drill mudflaps... cargoliner... bumpstep... seat protector... and cupfone. ♪ what about my car? weathertech.

welcome back in just the past half hour eu members approved a fourth round of sanctions against oligarchs and the entities there's a similar round of sanctions from the u.s. including oil import bans and kicking banks out of s.w.i.f.t we sat down with that man leading the sanctions if the biden administration >> reporter: american consumers are continuing to shoulder high costs from the sanctions on

russia with energy uncertainty driving up prices at the pump. i sat down today with the deputy treasury secretary to discuss the next wave of sanctions and the domestic policies that could offset them like a possible suspension of the federal gas tax currently under discussion >> at what point do you think the administration would say this has gotten bad enough that we need to pull that lever >> i want to make clear we're considering all options. we know the best option is to increase supply. the challenge with some of the proposals i've seen that are around tax cuts is that most of that money will go to the pocket of producers our goal is to make sure we increase the supply. that's why the president has been focussed on the petroleum reserve. releasing more oil into the market to reduce the cost. that's why we've called on domestic producers and international producers to put more supply into the market. today in america there are 9,000 permits available for domestic

producers. in the first year of the biden administration, more -- >> but there's been a chilling effect by the rhetoric of the administration and the communications with the industry granted, some of that is changing now but how can you say to those companies you need to start drilling more when the posture of the administration for the last 12 months has been we are going to be moving away from fossil fuels >> i don't think those things are inconsistent 9,000 leases being available to oil and gas producers in this country is a significant number. last year in the first year of the biden administration, more oil and gas was pumped than in the first year of the trump administration because we've created an environment but what the president has said is while we want additional supply today, we ultimately do want to move toward a clean energy future. as for other domestic priorities he says house democrats are on board to extend the child tax credit and that president biden will work on garnering support from the senate for that, and for other agenda items like

pausing student loan payments, even beyond the may first deadline currently >> kayla, while we have you, also big news on the fed as west virginia senator joe manchin indicates he wouldn't support sara bloom raskin. does that mean for the end of the road for her at the fed? >> not quite yet the white house is standing behind the raskin nomination and says they are working on shoring up bipartisan support, ie, getting at least one republican on board with her nomination to move it forward. raskin has been confirmed twice before in 2014. but both of them were voice votes meaning that no individual lawmaker had to put their name on the record as to how they were voting for raskin it's hard to go through the list and say here is where we think we have support and where we know we don't, because there's no historical record there unlike for other nominees? >> is there a backup to the

backup plan? >> well, certainly if you ask the progressive camp c there is not. this is really the nominee that they want. and you can see the white house is not giving up hope just yet >> absolutely. kayla, thank you we appreciate it up next, the i shares brazil itf is on pace for the best performance in six years we'll look at why russia's pain is brazil's gain and the nasdaq hits fresh session lows 26's down more than 2 %. a 1 point decline. we're back in a moment is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade

♪♪♪ there's no going back. [copy machine printing] ♪ ♪ who would've thought printing... could lead to growing trees. ♪

if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. how not to be a hero: because that's the last thing they need you to be. you don't have to save the day. you just have to navigate the world so that a foster child isn't doing it solo.

you just have to stand up for a kid who isn't fluent in bureaucracy, or maybe not in their own emotions. so show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com welcome back the brazil et f ewz up 14 %. brazil is benefitting from several key factors. we have the story. >> not one single day of outflows that's significant when you look at the sizable losses. china and other emerging markets are sitting on those for the year as investors scale back at the exposure to russia, brazil has seen inflows of about $15 billion. on track to the best start to the year

jpmorgan says brazil is poised for a breakout with oil being a driver. about 20% of its economy that's also fuel shares of pet row. as you can see, that's brazil's state-run energy giant brazil's oil is comparable to russia's crude estimates show brazil produces about 3.8 million barrels a day. it's increased output. russia exports roughly 5 million. similar to here, economists are warning that higher oil prices and agriculture prices will make inflation a bigger issue brazil currently has one of the highest interest rates in the world. over 10% that's coming ahead of a presidential election this fall where latest polling shows that their president is trailing the front runner who is seen as more business friendly. clearly, a key issue for them. >> are there any other latin american countries that are similarly benefitting or is this a unique bra dill story? >> latin america is the only region we're seeing markets that are trading in positive territory for the year

that's because of those commodity boom we've seen. colombia is one of the biggest exporters of oil that market has done well. argentina generates a lot of revenue from agriculture soybeans, wheat, meet. that market has done the imf ds a big supplier to china and as we grow increasingly concerned, economists do around the trajectory of the economy that could present a risk for broader latin america and south america. >> it is an idea of suppliers that we don't talk enough about. thank you. some other emerging markets not so lucky my next guest say it is consensus is too gloomy. the chairman of rockefeller international and founder of breakout capital great to see you why do you think too gloomy? >> because if you look at the relationship that emerging

markets have had with commodity prices it is a very tight fit and goes back 30, 40 years since the asset class was conceived and given how much commodity classes are up you expect emerging markets to be down. and then we know what happened after 2002 a move in emerging markets so most tend to be commodity exporters and an environment in higher for longer commodity prices i expect emerging markets to do better in the year ahead. >> does the dollar have to go back to a weakening trajectory to support that? >> yes they're all linked it all tend to be parts of the same story and seeing that

you highlighted how much the emerging market etf is down but all markets are down by a similar proportion this year and unusual because they have a higher beta than the rest of the world, but they have fallen in line which already tells me that that is a divergence opening up and people exited emerging markets. therefore, a lot of selling that's taking place. if you look at the oslo report it is strong despite the massive outflows the performance isn't that bad in an environment such as this. >> like you are saying they should be down 30% if the s&p is down 15. >> exactly. >> should people get an exposure through the eem or emerging market it is an are an

especially good opportunity? >> i think bying the em is a bad idea with exposure to china and other commodity importers and latin american etf a better yood to play the commodity boom but people that are selective, countries in the middle east could do well. i think similarly some of the beaten down markets of eastern europe may do much better but because of the large exposure to china and one of the most underreported stories this year really is what's happening in china, veto this crisis. some of the most significant weakness is in china the property market is still melting down the high spreads yields are coming down and the notion that

china is a beneficiary of what's going on out here, guess what. looking at the market and domestic end catoers china's economy is in a lot of trouble and off the radar. >> could you follow up on that what should investors do they have taken the losses. >> yeah. so i think as far as china is concerned, i would be underweight china significantly and be clear of the market but many other commodity exporting countries in general i think are going to do quite well and some domestic demand plays in the well guarded plays from saudi arabia, uae, latin america that seema highlighted just from brazil to colombia they're poised to do quite well and i think that these equity markets could well return double digits for five, ten years.

>> fascinating thank you so much. up next, the doj is hunting down russian oligarchs assets. could have a big impact on the u.s. stock market. we'll connect the dots next. re , and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you. pimco, a global leader in active fixed income.

welcome back the u.s. along with the uk and the eu issuing broad sanctions against russian oligarchs. robert frank has a look at the entities the department of justice is focused on. robert >> justice warning crypto exchanges that they could be targets in this ever-expanding oligarch crackdown the new sanctions task force saying banks that fail to maintain money laundering policies in the cross hairs of this investigation european union going further banning the oligarchs and

certain companies from trading cryptocurrency altogether. meanwhile, uk and u.s. also going after the financial investments of the oligarchs hire in the u.s., freezing the u.s. hedge fund assets made by roman abramovich investing billions through an unregistered foirm in new york called concord management including big names. abramovich was trying to sell the investments recent sources saying he has large holdings of u.s. stocks. unclear which institutions using to trade those and the oligarchs are on the run right now within the past hour private jet used by abramovich left israel headed to turkey

they can run but they can't hide. >> a head wind for the assets they have ownership of the dow down by 80 joining the nasdaq and s&p in negative territory this afternoon why that does it here on "the exchange." "power lunch" picks up right now. ♪ indeed it does, kelly. as the gains go slip sliding away welcome to "power lunch. we have two power players ahead this hardware. ceo of liberty oil fields services is here under pressure to increase output and the former google ceo warns of a national security emergency. he wants washington to make 5 g a priority so china doesn't own the tech and ai future talking to h