we get to? >> it's still really low. >> you're not going to be at 2%. >> right, so phil lebeau would say keep that in mind. >> ten-year 2.1%. >> rick said on the wires inflation is higher with the empire index did you hear all that? >> i did hear all that >> that was my favorite part of the show >> make sure you join us tomorrow, "squawk on the street" is next. >> good tuesday morning and welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber along with jim cramer, carl quintanilla has the morning off. we get started with trading here at the new york stock exchange, and everybody where else we are looking for an up open that was the case yesterday. >> that's something we like to do, we like to use money for people by having the market open up, get them in and have their

head cut off it's the bear market way. >> the nasdaq down and down fairly substantially. >> i got some people out -- i get people out every day in the nasdaq, it doesn't matter. >> i got to get to the road map, then you can start talking. >> i have to tell people what's coming up on the show. we're going to start with the crude crumble. that's what we're calling it here. >> will you stop >> i don't know. our producers wrote that 95 bucks a barrel, and ukraine hopes at least for peace there and china's covid move lately fueling that move. plus, airlines are getting bullish actually despite rising jet fuel prices, jetblue, southwest, united all boosting their outlook on signs of that travel rebound we're going to talk about that, and then there's this. no, it's not april 1st amc, movie theater chain, yeah, they are investing in a gold and silver mine in nevada. >> nevada? >> nevada.

yeah. >> i don't think really think the pronunciation state -- >> he's going to be joining us on the show to talk about why they own a gold and silver mine. >> it's time it's just time it's like arnold. >> time to what? own a gold and silver mine, exhibition business. >> i remember a major industrial that bought a big tv business. >> yes, i do too and owned it for quite some time with great results as well. >> said to me, says, jim, synergy. not. >> not >> let's get back to the broader market. >> indiana jones and the temple of doom, weren't they after gold that is all about gold let's stay focused before we criticize. >> we'll give you the whole back story on this as well. we will talk to mr. aaron towards the end of the shoechlt let's talk about the market. i'm looking at this note from jpmorgan, jgeopolitical risks

intensified. the global economy was on track to accelerate sharply on reopening from the omicron wave. mobility and the services sector rebounding and they say this morning despite the current tumultuous conditions, we believe a lot of risk is already priced in. sentiment is depressed and investor positioning is low. we would add to risk with a medium term horizon. >> the last words are the easy, medium term. let's say it goes down three more weeks the outs on things like that disturb me is it time and the negativity is here or do you have to wait? one thing we've learned, david is that in a few weeks' time you can destroy a lot of capital so it's absolutely fine to say listen, i've been working on ge. >> okay. >> david. >> i think when this deal's done and split up, it's going to be

good. >> that's a long time from now >> thank you raytheon merged with united technologies are you kidding me >> terrific. and carrier, but that took a very long time the ge split is years in the making until they were actually three separate companies. >> i'm saying that i like that kind of call more than i like -- listen, it's de-risked you're toast if you bought it. was good rx de-risked. you need a doctor if you bought it i can go over so many of the nasdaq names david, is it time to buy joe bee? >> i don't know. maybe potentially never be time to buy some of those names >> no, but that's my point people have lost fortunes in rent the runway. rent the runway. >> we have seen a lot of odd moves lately in stock that would indicate that de-risking you're talking about. shares of paramount yesterday surging because somebody was clearly covering a short

position nothing to do with your underlying fundamentals or whether it was other names getting crushed because people were finally giving up i don't know how much of that -- >> what's your -- nuclear war? >> zero. >> if you think the existential crisis, especially from people who are jealous of their neighbors who had fallout shelters isn't back? i think the best they think happening in the war is that they're sending leaders of the west into kyiv so you have to think that maybe the great putin now attacks other cities, kharkiv. >> what's the point you're trying to make here? >> my point is that the negativity is based in reality >> okay. and if it's based in reality, then you've got to be sure that what you buy, several notes today about nike nike reports, and i think nike is a terrific company. it has large china exposure. nike's has been a terrific company from 179 down to 117

do you want to say that nike is so terrific now at 117 you want to buy it? >> maybe you want to see the quarter. >> i don't know, maybe i start to think that the risk has been overpronounced something good might happen. who knows? who might back off that seems unlikely from a percentage basis of autothe outs right now. if that were to happen, that would be a very strong day if not -- >> we know aleppo, no one wanted to save syria. we know grozny -- >> jpmorgan said add to risk medium term. why not start doing it now. >> that's a great question the vast majority of our viewers, if they bought nike at 115 and it goes to 100, you know what they say? don't worry, it's the medium term, no, they say those two knuckle heads -- >> don't include me in this. >> all right, this knuckle head

decided to stick his neck out. i need a catalyst just because a stock is going down, does not mean it's time to go up. i have marvel on this name >> yes. >> right now better than even the previous quarter, right now we're talking about subsequent gains. >> but don't you think therefore that reflects the broad sense of negative sentiment right now >> i like marvel and i think it should be bought >> you do? >> yes this quarter is better than last quarter. i'm looking for earnings to be better for some companies. nike's earnings aren't better, for heavens sake they're worse, once they're worse and everyone knows it and there's hope they might get better that's medium term. >> what is it going to take for you to feel more positive? >> more companies that are doing well. >> that investors will then become more -- >> more companies that are doing well >> is it going to have to be some sort of change? >> we need russia's time, we

need russia to play out. we just have to hope, i mean there's a lot of stories about how russia if they're going to go bankrupt, what happens. then there's military tactics that a michael fgordon, who's a fantastic military writer would say, wait a second, jim, how does it work they just bomb and they -- and they -- >> the prospects of being a failed state is not exactly reassuring either. it's one thing when venezuela is it's another when the failed state has thousands of nuclear weapons. >> right okay, so you have to add up the negatives, and then you have to decide where the negatives are indeed reflected in stones and epi want to throw in even a death cross which is something you're not -- >> you're i'm not s. >> the technicals are very bad >> okay. >> russia we have no conclusion. >> okay. >> china seems to get worse by

the day. >> yes >> but we're good. >> yes when does that matter? how long can we stay good when europe is not good china's not great. when rates are going up, but i got a good one for you, oil prices are coming down >> you want to buy because the oil companies have de-risked themselves by giving you giant dividends. i think that what we're looking for, i don't like the stock of kimber kimberly-clark. >> you know this area well, you spend a lot of time sfwr yeah, i do. >> what's going on here? >> china's in lockdown and they're a big energy user and they won't be using as much energy when they're in lockdown. can i be chauvinistic and jinglistic for a second and xenophobic. >> giving everybody all the s.a.t. words they're going to need now you can do it at home, using google

we are -- when i say that we're doing better than everybody else, energy is ridiculous, right? we've got that going for us. >> yes. >> we are a strong balanced government, okay and now when it gets -- i want to be a jinglist, what do we have we have great technology. >> we do. >> what kind of half-baked vaccines do they have in china that you can vaccinate everybody and then you can have a major wave >> well, we've had major waves here too, although can't speak to the vaccine rna based vaccine. >> what i'm saying they obviously are dealing with an inferior product, and they're obviously not saying that it's pandemic there, it's epidemic here now the head of cdc told my doctor the other day on cbs that we have no ability to be able to

compile data that's why we're using the israeli data we're certainly not first world when it comes to -- >> back to china -- >> pfizer and moderna -- >> we're getting to everything we hit oil -- >> just talking about -- free agency we are jumping -- this is not espn, david. we're here, we're there. we're here, we're this because the market's that. i got a new one for row. >> please, you got a gold mine for me somewhere >> do you know poland is down big. >> who >> poland. it's down big, why because so many polish people have gone to work to help in ukraine, and others have taken in four or five, six people, and so poland's business is hurt. >> yeah, because there's a refugee crisis as a result of the russian invasion and you got a million and a half people going into poland. >> it's going to rival world war ii these people are going to have nothing to eat russia would just as soon starve

them they starved grozny. they starved china don't you think when they circle these cities, their goal is to starve the city? they were in leningrad when i mention all these far-flung things, david, it's very hard to try and figure out whether now is the time to buy jbl. >> on that note, i think it's a good time to transition what's been going on in ukraine particularly >> going away from our programs -- >> we're going to go to our nbc correspondent on the ground there, alli aarouzi and get the latest from him. >> reporter: good morning, guys, there has been a sustained relentless bombing overnight and into kyiv last night, and in the early hours they bombed at least two residential buildings. there are reports that two people have been killed in those attacks, so the campaign of terror on civilians is relentless there, and also the

siege city of mariupol continues to be pounded by russian troops, but at least some good news. there was a convoy of about 2,000 people that managed to get out of mariupol. but there is still a massive humanitarian convoy still waiting to get in. they want to get aid into mariupol they want to get buses into mariupol to get some of those civilians out and deliver some really much needed humanitarian aid there because people are living in apocalyptic conditions in mariupol. they don't have any water. they don't have any food they don't have any electricity and in the night it goes well blo below freezing conditions there. it is very, very tough conditions yesterday the ukrainians and the russians had some peace talks. the ukrainians clearly laid out their position that they want an immediate end to the war they want all russian troops to leave the country immediately. they said that the russians were listening to their demands a

little more closely now. they're being more sensitive to the ukrainian position those talks are meant to resume again today. they haven't as of yet, but the hope is that, you know, even if it doesn't bring an end to the war immediately, that it can open up these humanitarian corridors. at the very least they can agree to that. we're hearing that several more corridors are to be open today, especially in hard hit sumi in the northeast of the country they want to get a lot of people out of there that are also in very, very bad conditions there, but i have to tell you guys, the resilience of the ukrainian people has been spectacular here nobody here feels defeated there's a sense of community here amongst the people, and everybody you talk to here says they're going to dig in right until the end. i spoke to one young woman yesterday, i asked her, are you worried if the russians are going to overtake this country she said the only way they're going to take our country is if they kill us all >> ali, thank you.

ali arouzi reporting for us. >> back to 1999, the only way they're going to take over that country by killing all of them, so what did they do. >> they're shelling the heck out of everybody they're creating an apoc-- >> the united nations called grozny the most destroyed city on earth between 5,008,000 civilians were killed by the russians by the way, they were russians remember, chechnya was russian, so i'm saying when you hear -- what is the first thing you said i used to cover homicide, he said two people had been killed, okay i've covered mass homicides unfortunately. i'm just saying that we've not seen nothing yet from the russians unless they're stopped. and by the way -- >> what's going non in mariupol is basically that playbook

you're describing. thousands of people have been killed there >> they want people to die so that they can win, and they don't want their troops to go into cities because they'll be killed, so why not demolish the cities is it possible you have a madman running a country. why isn't that possible. it's very hard to buy nike. >> it is but we are going to continue as we always do to talk about the market as well >> we have to. >> yeah. >> we can buy oil. we can buy drugs >> when we come back, we're also going to take a look at the stay-at-home stocks, at least that was what we called them over the last couple of years. netflix, yeah, pandemic gains have been erased. >> it's back to 2018 take a quicklook at futures, we've got about 14 minutes before we get started with trading here at the new york stock chge a lki for a higher open and we are right back after this they have a better finance system than we do.

i feel like they might have a better finance system than we do. workday. how do they make better decisions faster? workday. it's got to be something workday. i think i got something. work... hey, rob, you're on mute. hello! hey, rob, there he is. workday. the finance, hr and planning system for a changing world.

what does a foster kid need from you?

to be brave. to show up. for staying connected. the questions they weren't able to ask. show up for the first day of school, the last day at their current address. for the mornings when everything's wrong. for the manicure that makes everything right, for right now. show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com ten-year run note yield well above 2% now in fact, i think we've seen levels we haven't seen in at least a few years when we were 214 earlier in the session we'll keep a close eye on that we've got the fed meeting starting today. >> i'm going to offer a solution to what's happening. >> jim's going to have a s,lution, whatever that mean to what's happening. maybe he'll even give it to us in his mad dash coming up next

tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. vanguard. ♪ ♪ ♪ hey google. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward

of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

welcome back, eight minutes before we get started with trading at the new york stock exchange let's get to a mad dash. yesterday a very good day for moderna shares, by the way, jim. >> yes and i want to -- i know that i can be say a negative nancy in honor of my sister who watches the show, that i've talked about all the things that could go wrong and why the market has not fully reflected that what would happen if the president called and said, xi, listen to me, maybe he doesn't do that. previous president did that. we will trade you all the

moderna and pfizer you need, a billion shots if you say out loud that you will not help the russians and then i got to tell you something, if i'm putin, i'm scared putin's relying on taking all those natural gas minerals, everything and saying, listen, china, we need your help china, listen, china, you can have ross nef for all we care, if we could just make a darn deal with china instead of every day say woe is me. we've got what they need more than anyone else in the world. we have pfizer and moderna, we'll give it to them in return for all they have to say is we will not help them militarily. there i'm constructive i've offered something better than what -- cdc's not allowed to get data, better than anyone's offered okay it's a straightforward transaction. two of the greatest companies we have in america, pfizer and moderna, give them all they need

and let's go home. >> not going to happen. >> why >> because it's just not >> why because my $500 billion chance -- >> chinese probably wouldn't even want it they would be insulted in some fashion. they think their vaccine is working. i don't know there's a million reasons why it won't happen. >> there's a billion people demonstrating this is not working. >> to the extent we can influence china to -- >> how many humanitarian aid. >> revoke their support for russia would be significant. >> that's the big isolation. that's it. >> david, the isolation is putin doesn't get china. it's not putin and poland and putin and moldova, it's not romania. it's not france. it's china we have what china needs we have it let's make a deal. i'm not talking -- >> why are these shares up so muc much >> moderna >> because of the deal i guess >> the deal that's not going to happen we've got an opening bell a few minutes away by the way, you can catch this

incredible conversation anytime, anywhere listen to and follow the squawk on the street. >> china make sense of things. >> opening bell podcast. >> got monty hall over here, going to make a deal when you need help it's great to be in sync with customer service. a team of reps who can anticipate the next step genesys technology is changing the way customer service teams anticipate what customers need. because happy customers are music to our ears. genesys, we're behind every customer smile.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business,

our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

shares of united, southwest and jetblue you can see all moving higher this morning those airlines raising revenue guidance they're saying that air travel is rebounding from of course the earlier slump that was induced by the spread of the omicron variant earlier this year. all the numbers looking good here in this country, it would seem although you still get sometimes reports of outbreaks here and there, jim, but nothing like what is occurring in china thankfully here, and even deaths finally coming down substantially as well in the country. >> right remember, i said that the united states is very strong, that includes the consumer. on the enterprise levels, a lot of the enterprises have a lot to do with europe the american consumer balance

sheets, we mentioned ppi, obviously you could say the fed is going to crimp that balance sheet. that can't happen far long time. it has to go up substantially. if you look at where the consumer was at 1%, 2%, 3% it's very strong this is terrific sign the airlines can raise, and i think it's a sign people are traveling. >> people are on the move. i mean -- >> by the way, steve square ri. >> from american express, you were very positive on that yesterday. >> he's got a new theory, which is that people may have to business travel more than ever because their own companies, their in bozeman, all right, the company's located in san francisco. they got to go from bozeman to san francisco pretty regularly they never had to go anywhere before except by car this is not some cockamamie moderna solution. >> they travel -- >> you know why i had this

i said that david faber is very skeptical about business travel. you tell him about intracompany business travel. >> i'm still skeptical >> yeah, i don't know if that's going to make up for the lack of people going to meetings they might once have gone to that were an hour long halfway around the world. by the way rthey go first class. that would be a high margin trip >> you say -- look -- >> let me get to the opening bell the realtime exchange is fixed yesterday it wasn't working. we don't know why. it's a mystery you can see a lot more green on it here at the big board, bmo capital markets celebrating the listings, at the nasdaq, simmons first national, a financial holding company. >> before we get started. >> start talking >> stop bragging on twitter about how quickly you do wordle. it intimidates most of the

country. >> i don't ever do wordle ever you got the wrong guy. >> oh, okay, let's skip that let's talk about stay-at-home. let's talk about netflix. >> yes >> there are three big pieces about netflix today. >> yes, they are i'm reading the nathanson piece right now, what is the total addressable market for netflix >> i don't know what to make of these pieces other than the fact that netflix is not as popular a stock, a stock since it's lost -- why did you fly? that was my -- >> it's lost all its gains, for the most part amc which we'll talk about in a bit. >> peloton. >> many of these stay-at-home plays, whether it's peloton, we talked about about foley and those margin loans and he's been selling stuff and goldman's been giving him more credit, and peloton got a new ceo there. there's some of them, roadblocks, zoom, that's not

even includinging docusign >> that's real people's money. >> zoom is make aing a lot. the multiple of zoom is incredible >> those are from the highs. the absolute highs let's just make that clear >> they look like alibaba. >> i do remember zoom was over $100 billion market cap company, it's now below 30 billion. there's microsoft teams, cisco web ex, inability to expand beyond zoom. failure to close the 5-9 deal, make it so they do have their own contact call center. it's a very challenged space now, that said, david, they have so much cash they can do something. they can do something in sports. i would propose that they do gaming set up gaming at home i play your house, we watch us with a split screen on the

sport. >> interesting. >> i think it's a billion dollar idea >> could be. you come up with them all the time but somehow people don't seem to be listening. >> they want to hurt my feelings >> apple's up. >> yes, apple is up. >> that could be because the j bill, guy sticks his neck out and recommends jay bill, which happens to be a huge more than 20% supplier, and when you do that, and it's a good analyst, jim suva, that made me think he's getting a little bullish on apple. >> meanit's down 14.5% of the y. it does outpace the decline, which now sits at 11.6% for 2022 obviously the nasdaq down a lot more, almost 19% for the year, jim.

but you know, i'm seeing some signs of life here today without a doubt. >> look, every day starts with -- that's terrific. very unlikely there will be a lot of bombing today because you've got three world leaders in kyiv. >> that's smart. >> you have tesla up, that's one that's been hurt >> it has, elon musk is -- >> raw material costs for electric cars are rising rising fairly substantially. there's still supply chain issues to some extent as you well know. and by the way, we talk about china in this lockdown, that's not going to help. >> no, it's not. but there are other false worries. i spoke to matt murphy last night, runs marvel, which is a very, very good company, involved with auto, involved with high performance computing. it's involved with 5g. he made a point that we're shadow boxing now against neon remember, we said ukraine cut off neon, the semiconductors

dropped about 10% in two days. he said it's not a big concern for him. high performance computing there's an undercurrent that e-commerce has slowed dramatically i can't prove that but i find myself trying to move negatives every day or disprove them, and i'm somewhat like many people in this business overwhelmed that there could be a new negative, the price of nickel >> aluminum, palladium, don't forget about your ve new year's day -- venadium. >> there's no symbol for that. i do think what happens -- potash. >> potash is doing well. >> let's talk about alibaba for a moment, it's not doing well. seeing that thing approach a $200 million market value. it is reflective of concerns in china. it's not just covid and the lockdowns, which have spread

there as a result of their continued zero covid policy. it's also concerns that you were raising kind of in the mad dash within what you were sort of saying which is what's next there. if china does support russia in a more significant way, will there somehow have to be sanctioning of the chinese economy beyond our current trade war, and, you know, you saw it yesterday in lvs, las vegas sands stock down sharply and then you've also got the continued crackdown on technology companies broadly speaking in china, and then the delisting process under the holding foreign companies accountable act here in the united states. none of it adding up to much except for continued losses and perhaps some even forced selling from some owners of these stocks. >> okay. let's go to china now. for 40 years china needed our money. they needed to grow. then they in their own eyes and perhaps many others got more powerful, have a great balance sheet doing better i think the chinese stock

market -- but i think that they made a logical decision that the people who own the alibabas and the jds and the tencent, they've made enough, and that they want to go back to their communist roots. they don't want two countries. they don't want the rich and poor because they're communists. >> the kweb is down 75% for the year. >> that's an index of how the prc, the people's republic of china and communist party feel about rich people. david, it's a stock market what do they do in a stock market >> they got a lot of stock market >> they've got one in shanghai, they've got a bunch. >> you know, all i'm saying is that the chinese government has come out very much against capitalism, and you're looking at what's happening when these adventurous free booting managers come on our air and say, you know what, now is the time. >> finally, i do want to get to

amc. >> why can't we have an msi index that excludes countries where people are killed recklessly and indifferently just an idea >> yeah. paramount shares were up again that was some sort of crazy short covering yesterday discove discovery's up, but i do want to get to amc they're buying 22% of a gold mine, a gold and silver mine. >> it's about time. >> i can tell you the background here is this guy jason, people may remember him he runs a fairly large distressed debt firm or a firm that invests in distressed opportunities, not necessarily debt, equity, and they owned a lot of amc debt, if you recall, and then he owns this mine and he says you know what, stock has moved up recently, even though they were actually, my

understanding is, kind of down to the last 8 million bucks at high croft and might actually face a significant cash crunch, and says i'd love my ceo to sort of understand an at the market offering because now our stock has moved up because of the recent interest in precious metals i'd actually like to put some money in myself. apparently mr. aaron toured the mine yesterday >> i noticed that you're being not at all tongue in cheek. >> no, i'm just telling you exactly what's happened. it does have a lot of potential ounces of gold and silver, but they need a new mill that mill could cost as much as a billion dollars. they're no longer processing nearly as much of what had been

o oxide ore, now they can sell a lot of stock at the market as amc did so effectively to raise that 1.8 billion, a small portion of which they're now investing in a gold mine. >> someone asked today will the apes like this meaning the people the residuals that people are still in amc oddly, i think they will they i think were more in it initially for -- but i have to tell you when i map out where their gold mine is, it's not that far from the very successful baric mines that mark bristow has done a good job with. >> now these guys are out of danger we're going to talk to adam aron about that >> i find it curious gold mine -- >> it's weird.

but remember, they also earn retail popcorn, don't forget that. >> i forgot. that explains it. >> what? >> that explains it. >> it does yeah, it does. all right. what else this morning has your attention? i haven't even asked you what the key to this market is. i see the banks are up exxon and chevron down again >> you're not going to want it >> chevron is down 4.5%. >> chevron's a great company. >> i know you love chevron. >> i'm going to give you the key to this market that's going to shock you. johnson & johnson. >> johnson & johnson >> look at this stock. look at how the stock has done dug thi during this period think about the breakup and how good, even though it's long-term. look at the balance sheet. this is what people are buying this stock has the potential to go to 200. from the period april 14 of 2000 to april 14 of 2001, j&j,

bristol-myers, coca-cola, serious out performance. that's what works in an environment where you're having a nasdaq crash, which is of course what we've had. j&j, fantastic coca-cola and i think very well led by quinn cy bristol-myers starting to show signs of life j&j is going to 200. >> is it going to go to 150 before it goes to 200? or it's going to go straight to 200. >> david, i'm saying over the medium term people want to own drug stocks, medical device stocks that's what they want, okay? and they want consumer products, and j&j is giving you all three. gorski is going to be vindicated for this breakup, and i'm telling people and i wish that my travel trust owns it, that j&j, i was hoping it could come down a little. represents the kind of stock people want.

>> to the point you made earlier on ge which you also said medium term you like. these breakup take a long time to occur neither reacted particularly positive on their announcement or since then, which is a bit different than what we've seen when we introduced this shrink to grow concept a number of years ago. >> you're absolutely right there are issues with ge and its power division all three of those are industrial grade power, health care, and aerospace. i think it's good. what has my eye on j&j is because people -- people are looking back to what happened in april of 2000, okay? remember april of 2000, nasdaq started going down, and s&p started going up what was so funny about what i just said? >> nothing nothing. >> so i'm looking back i look back into the april, may, june period of april 2000. david, it was the beginning of a

tremendous period of out performance for the drug stocks, of which i mentioned j&j >> if it comes in you got to buy j&j. >> we were mentioning -- we were talking about amc buying 22% of mine croft and we expected to have adam aron on the show to tell us about it it's a very small company. >> i can't wait to talk to him. >> so small we're not even showing you the stock price because the market cap is so small that we chose not to do that it is up sharply, and they may now be in a position at the market to sell a lot of stock, perhaps the apes will come in as well that's all the hope here adam aron has told us, jim, that he -- given the volatility in high croft stock that he doesn't feel comfortable making public comments right now the legal team as well perhaps also at high croft advising that, so he's no longer going to join us as we watch the shares move higher.

again, as i reported earlier, a lot of this to jason mudrick who introduced adam aron to this potential opportunity, one that he never expected him to invest in perhaps initially. >> i'm not done with this. >> they do know how to navigate the market and now they own 22%. the other big investor is sprok, a well-known investor in silver and gold. >> this is highly embarrassing. >> they do provide necessary liquidity to high croft which lals be able to fund itself. this mine is a well-known mine that has produced enormous quantities. >> we need to know whether the apes are going to finance it with some sort of continual offering we needed to know whether -- transportation, travel leisure, adam aron ran vail >> $1.8 billion, he's got a lot more money to diversify. >> yeah, but like why isn't he

getting into something he knows? >> i don't know. >> he does know his valuation is not supported by the fund mentals of his business. >> remember when we had the empty chair in the presidential debate adam, tell me, why do you prefer gold over batman >> wasn't that clint eastwaood during the republican national convention >> silver is very big here, have you talked to dr. mark bristow who knows that area very well. >> jim's going to continue that conversation with the invisible adam aron. >> eventually go into child's toys. >> you can get in on the investing club with jim as well. you can sign up, or just point your code at the qr code on his head that will take you there before we head to break, let's give you a quick bond report you can keep talking to adam >> talked about treasuries earlier this morning. >> i don't just sit here and take a beating what am i like timex.

>> first day of the fed meeting, 25 basis point. >> getting some -- >> we're back after this you are an electric vehicle. electricity powers your heart. want to feel your heart beat faster? ♪ (heart beat music) ♪ drive an electric car. made by a company whose evs have gone five billion miles... for every highway... every driveway... ...and every speedway. and where the loudest sound...

...is the beat of your electric heart. this is the new nissan. ♪ ♪ your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

inner voice (design studio owner): i'm over here waiting... ... looking intensely for a print that i never actually printed... ... so i don't have to deal with that terrifying pile of invoices. intuit quickbooks helps you easily send your first invoice in 3 steps. simple.

airlines, as you see it there, domthating the s&p gainers list this morning with united at the top, excuse me, delta and united going back and forth for the top ranking with an over 8% gain, this on very positive trends as people get back to flying

i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. i am here because they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere. i am here.

what does a foster kid need from you? to be brave. to show up. for staying connected. the questions they weren't able to ask. show up for the first day of school, the last day at their current address. for the mornings when everything's wrong. for the manicure that makes everything right, for right now. show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com if you're a small business, there are lots of choices

fo when it comesids to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. 23 minutes into trading. let's get over to bob pisani for a look at what's going on in the market >> somewhat mixed open but the trend is continuing so bank stocks have been up recently as rates have been a little higher. tech has been mixed, industrials have been mixed and most importantly, energy, metals and mining, essentially commodity based stocks are no longer adding to the rally. they stopped going up

essentially a week ago the top was monday, a week ago, essentially. take a look at some of these big names that have had 20, 25, 30% moves up recently. no longer participating. schlumberger, for example, chevron, halliburton in the energy complex, and the mosaic and the cf industries of the world, this is mostly in the materials complex. all of those stocks stopped going up a week ago. the problem is it only limits how far you can push the prices up yes, they're gushing cash, yes, they're going to see their earnings increase as we get into earnings season. but only so far people will pay for these stocks, so high on the price, and remember, many of these energy companies said they would be disciplined in increasing production. production levels are not going to dramatically go to the upside another big problem is apple complete round trip now. $150 in november to about $180 a

little while ago, and now essentially $150 that's a head and shoulders right there. and apple of course was a big support for the market a lot of people hiding out in that, and the fact it's come all the way down and around, a big concern for the markets. finally, everybody is bearish. i had the head of the american association of institutional investors on yesterday talking about retail sentiment we got the global fund managers survey, this is the big globeal fund managers. highest level of cash since april 2020 optimism lowest since july of 2008 global profit expectations drop dramatically, and the biggest risk, you would think ukraine is number one this is the first time i saw global recession as a major risk factor out there of course, that's now being talked about over the weekend rather dramatically, inflation number three there, and as you know, david, these kinds of risk sentiment indicators are very good extremes and it can be contrarian indicator, so the play now obviously would be, of

course, short commodities and go long europe. obviously a bit of a risky play given this environment back to you. >> that would be an interesting choice to make, of course, as you say, recession calls start to rise, certainly for 2023. bob, thank you >> let's get back to jim here and get a last idea from you before we wrap up the show >> i want to talk about why there is so much negativity. take a stock like hormel, which is really terrific we know that sure enough what happens, goldman puts out a note saying to sell it because the rise in costs. so that's why it keeps being dangerous. the sentiment is absolutely so abysmal that you have to buy, but what you buy is so hard because we would normally think -- but their inputs. i have pumpkin spam. >> which house do you have the fallout shelter in will you let me know where to go >> west of here.

>> there's a look at hormel. what do you have on the show tonight? >> okay, we have crowdstrike, and we're going to talk about cybersecurity. we have a very rare -- >> oh, wow costco >> new ceo parent costco ron vachris it's a stock you can buy in this environment because they save people a lot of money and eat a lot of inflation very good. i'm finding gems okay within the overall pastiche if not mosaic of the market it's important to be constructive i'm using april 2001 >> i remember that market. all right, i'll see you tomorrow >> yeah. see you tomorrow >> yeah. >> just a second see you tomorrow >> say good-bye to adam as well. all the major indices in the green. we're back after this.

inner voice (furniture maker): i'm rubbing the arms of my chair... ...admiring the craft and detail i've put into it. that way i try to convince myself that i'm in control of the business side of my business. intuit quickbooks makes it easy for you to get a complete view of your business. so you can sit back and... ...relax.

good tuesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm david faber along with morgan brenner and mike santoli.

we're green on all the markets up nicely so far this morning. morgan >> we'll take it we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers or some big movers we're watching we're going to start with the passenger airlines delta, united, southwest, and jetblue raising their outlooks, raising revenue guidance as air travel is rebounding from an omicron induced slide earlier in the year those shares are up mightily delta and united are each up almost 9%. plus, baba getting crushed falling four days in a row, now down almost 70% over the past 12 months the threat of a possible u.s. delisting, fears of a covid related economic slowdown in china are adding pressure. those shares are down 4.5% now we'll have more on the chinese internet sector later this hour. and shares of coupa software plunging despite results that beat for the most part for the recent quarter the business software company issued a much weaker than expected full year outlook

shares are down about 19% right now. >> yeah, something else we have been closely watching, of course, for weeks is energy. and we should tell you that crude oil is dropping significantly this morning wti, you can see down over 7%. well below $100 now, as you might expect, some of the major stock prices which have soared, s chevron and exxon, are down sharply and were down yesterday as well. >> the move in crude is very dramatic it looks like a needle on the chart. we have round tripped it a little over two weeks is the way to think about it. so we were kind of inching up to the $85, that was the multi-year high for a while, above that prewar and pretalk of any kind of western sanctions or boycott of russian oil and gas we have reversed a lot of that clearly, the china shutdown bringing fears of demand in terms of the velocity of the move, it's always good to keep

in mind that no matter how far a price is from where we start, if it was there recently, it can get back there really fast that's what we're seeing now interesting dynamic is the oil stocks, if you looked at the xle, did not chase the crude price for the last little bump, for the last week or two of gains. that showed you that it was considered to be this maybe temporary geopolitical premium or a what-if trade if in fact russia stopped supplying the world at all so here we have a little bit of a normalization of that. the demand side really a moving target with china. i don't know that people are really revising estimates at the moment or it's just -- >> is that what's behind that? china's result of the covid outbreak >> i think that's giving more force to the move yesterday and today, but it was conspicuous last week that crude was down, and we didn't make new highs it could be obviously natural, you know, reversal after such a

momentum move that you're going to get no matter what. >> that's right. you also had a week and a half for many investors to get out of some of those trades, and likely you saw short squeeze action when that price ran up early last week. you have the fed increasing interest rates that's expected to strengthen the dollar that tends to put pressure on commodities. you have ongoing talks between russia and ukraine the statement from the russian foreign minister that moscow's in favor of that 2015 iran nuclear deal resuming as soon as possible you have western sanctions against russia that are failing to deter china and india from buying russian crude oil, and as you mentioned, you have the covid lockdowns in china, so you put all of that together and it sort of speaks to what we have seen not only in crude but really across markets in asset classes which is the fact things have been trading not necessarily on fundamentals but on these macro developments and these headlines we're getting from day to day, hour to hour. >> right, and also just this

general kind of risk premium in all markets. yesterday, bonds were down, oil was down, stock was down bonds down in price. so there was just kind of a sell stuff dynamic going on yesterday. today, you have yields lower, and i guess at least at the headline level, it's going to take a little bit of upsid pressure off inflation readings and we get that ppi number today that was less bad than anticipated. >> and so much of this is going to hinge on how long this situation, this crisis does play out in eastern europe and whether you do potentially see another fast run up in crude prices knock on wood, at least for now, looking better today cnbc is out with a new fed survey looking at the outlook for equities and steve liesman has that for us. hi steve. >> hey, morgan good morning forecasters in the cnbc fed survey increasing the chance of recession and boosting their inflation outlook while they reduce their outlook for growth. a lot of this in response to the recent invasion of ukraine at the same time, because

markets have fallen as much as they have, their relative outlook on the stock market has actually improved. 53% say the market is overvalued relative to the outlook for growth and earnings. that's actually down from 69% in the prior survey, and 88% a year ago. so fewer of our 33 respondents think the market is overvalues that's one of the lowest numbers we have seen you can see that also, an improvement in the risk/reward ratio. we sutract the chance of a 10% increase in the next six months from a chance of a decline, and it rose from minus 9 to minus 14 still bearish but just not as much as it was and finally, all this shows up, respondents bringing down the outlook for the s&p to 4400 for this year and 4700 for next, but those are all would mark pretty decent improvements from where we are now in the 4200 level here are the expectations from the fund 2% by next year.

2.4% terminal rate which tells you where the fed is going, and those are the recession probabilities over the next 12 months, up ten months from the last survey to 33%, and now at 50% for europe a theme that ran through all of the forecasts, a lot like the discussion you were having before, a high level of uncertainty, but risk to inflation and growth all tilted to the downside. >> thank you >> our next guest is predicting a quarter point hike at tomorrow's fed meeting and six total rate hikes this year with us, tom michaud great to have you back on the show in term of the fedex pecpectati house does it play out relative to the s&p's loss still outperforming? >> so, i just heard the discussion that you all were having about macro forces, and they are absolutely at work in

the financial stocks and in the bank stocks. broadly, the xlf, the financials have been outfourmperforming the market when you drill into the financials as to what stocks we think are going to work or are working, large regional banks, higher rates will be good for them we're looking for double-digit revenue growth for regional banks. but there are other areas of the market where current conditions are getting more uncertainty so there are other areas of the market, whether it be the mortgage business, subprime consumer, or investment banking revenues, those are going to be a different story, we think, when companies report earnings in a couple weeks. but we're bullish on the large regionals. those have been the best performing stocks within financials and we think things are playing out right for them in terms of the rate outlook remember, banks weren't built to operate in a zero interest rate

environment. >> so when you talk about those uncertainties, are you already starting to see, i guess, some cracks in some of those areas of the market and i ask that because we have seen the risk of recession or at least the risk or expectations around the risk of recession among some wall street strategists and economists growing. >> i think absolutely. as a matter of fact, we put out a study this morning where we looked at the credit card companies. and we put a more traditional pe ratio on the stocks to try to back into how much credit loss investors may already be expecting. and actually, we are -- if you did that work, which is kind of -- it's a very blunt instrument to do that, an analysis to do that work, but you would say that investors are thinking that credit costs are going to go up 40% and be the highest rate we have seen since the global financial crisis. so that is already what's starting to bake its way in. and you can see investors already starting to add a risk

element to some of those stocks. >> tom, so has that changed your overall view as we came into this year, there was a lot of, i would say, optimism from many of the large banks given the interest rate environment, the possibility of significant net interest margin, not to mention an economy that was very strong. a few months later, those things look very different. >> yeah, so when you think of like the view of the banks i think you need to break it in the pieces. we were coming out of the pandemic very bullish on the large banks. and 2021 and 2020 were very big investment banking years we think for example on equity capital markets in the first quarter, you jug need to look at what's been priced those businesses will be down significantly. trading is going to be down double digits year over year and so there's a chance you can get yourself all bared up on it until you take a step back and look at what our estimates are

for the year we still think 2022 is going to be better than 2019, and the story may be just we're off record levels, but it's still going to be a very reasonable year for investment banking. when i look at returns on tangible common equity for these big banks, it's still mid-teens which is still good. they're going to still raise dividends and still probably buy back stock, but we don't really recommend those stocks because of the decel where we are, we like comerica, we like western alliance, east/west, which are banks that generally don't have a lot of mortgage exposure and don't do a lot of lending to subprime consumer, which is where i heard the percentages you said this morning. that's where the range of outcome is probably widening out, as inflation continues to pull away, as rates go higher, as gas is over $5 a gallon you can see how the economy

could slow faster than folks had originally thought when the year started. >> so if you're trying to stay away from those areas with a lot of subprime or real heavy consumer exposure, where does that take you? the comerica type names? mostly small and medium sized businesses what's the implicit bet there? >> 100%, we have the krx, which is the keith regional bank index. they're not the top 24 banks they're the next 50. that would be the place generally where you'll see we have a lot of outperform and buy ratings. it's interesting because look, we see the headlines just like everybody else we're talking to these managements. we keep pressing our earnings models, but the companies that i just mentioned are very likely going into 2023 are going to have double digit revenue growth, double digit earnings per share growth, credit is probably lower than it will be in terms of credit costs because

it's been practically zero i think it's realistic to think we're going to get some normalization, but these banks are seeing still accelerating return on tangible common equity, and i think that's different than the banks that have different business mixes with mortgage, subprime, and investment banking so that's the area where we think -- if you look at all the indices, that's where the outperformance is and where we think it's going to continue to be >> all right, some actionable insights for our viewers to take home tom michaud, thank you for joining us >> as we head to a quick break, here's a look at our road map for the rest of the hour including chinese tech stocks under pressure again amid rising covid cases leading to lockdowns. we'll get a live report from beijing up next. >> plus, the sell-off in stay-at-home names, netflix losing all of its gains from the pandemic the stock down 50% from its high of the past year, a few months abow >> and russia is scheduled to pay more than $100 million in

interest, but will the country be able to deliver that money? we'll get into that and a lot more when "squawk on the street" tus.

chinese tech stocks sliding overnight yet again amid the country's latest covid outbreak. our eunice yoon is live from beijing with the latest. >> hey, mike well, china's tech shares in hong kong plummeted with

investors really reassessing the prospects of dual listed chinese shares china's tight relationship with russia is evident in a place like this where i am now, which is the beijing -- beijing's russian district, and the concern is that if china prioritizes that relationship over its economic ties with the west, that the prospects for the further delistings off u.s. exchanges could rise china's foreign ministry today repeated its criticism of the u.s. this is after the intense discussions that were held between u.s. and chinese officials in rome. the ministry said today that reports that russia asked for military gear was false information and said that beijing was not open to it now, tech stocks were also weighed down by more stories and more evidence of a further regulatory crackdown, a team from the cyber watchdog sent in

folks to another social media platform called doban for what they believe is chaos on the network, and then of course, there's the covid lockdown concerns another city which is near beijing was added to the lockdown list. also the chinese government sent in medical as well as military personnel to the most affected area in a hub, and then shanghai also today confirmed that it is diverting international flights away as of monday until may. so all of that, of course, weighing on sentiment and the folks in shanghai also very concerned that they could come under a lockdown city officials there, though, said a lockdown isn't necessary at the moment. in shenzhen, they are trying to reframe the discussion, saying their partial lockdown is only a week of slow living.

david. >> thank you for that excellent rundown of all the things that are impacting the chinese market right now. we're going to stick with that sell-off that we continue to see day after day in so many of these chinese company stocks we're joined by james lee and brendan hearn. brendaner i'll start with you it's got to be painful what do you tell your investors at this point, when i look at your, many of the names that china internet owns, it's not good >> no, it's been a painful year, and certainly the last five trading days where i think there's this misnomer that china and russia are one and the same. i think that's a false narrative. china only -- china represents 18% of the global economy. you know, russia is only 2%. so this idea that somehow you can apply sanctions like we applied to russia would lead to

a global depression. it would lead to a u.s. equity market crash, and i think it's a false narrative to think that the u.s. would apply sanctions and create a smoot/hawley situation in 2022. >> so what do you think is going to happen and how can you still be constructive on these names it's not just obviously concerns somehow about the sanctions. you put that in some perspective, but also the continued crackdown to some extent on technology companies it's, as well, the adherence here to the making foreign companies accountable act that was passed that the s.e.c. is enforcing. so there's any number of things coming at you. >> oh, yeah. david, it's been the sum of all fears. i think the stocks reflect the worst case scenario, almost like a world war iii economic depression playing out, and i think there's glimmers of hope we had overnight retail sales in china actually went up 6.7% for january and february twice the market's expectation

so you had just all of this negativity baked into these stocks, and i can't say that the bottom is today, it's tomorrow, or next week, but i think if you see some positive anything positive, if you see pcaob and csrc finding a solution to hfcaa, it's a huge upside. if you have the u.s. and china looking to solve this terrible humanitarian kries in ukraine, there's nothing but positive so do you have all of this negative taity baked into the ns and we're waiting and hoping for positives to get these stocks to bottom out >> james, how do you see it? with the chinese tech names you cover, is it still steer clear given all of the uncertainty, or do you see opportunities here? >> yeah, thanks for having me on the show one of the biggest concerns obviously investors have on chinese tech right now is on regulation i tend to think stabilizing

right now. we are seeing the framework of china internet regulations kind of in four buckets that's in fintech, antitrust, cybersecurity, and common prosperity we have not seen the government create new frameworks from that perspective. another fact that people worry about is the economy the consumption has been relatively weak in the back half of last year, but what we have seen coming out of the two sessions of the national congress last week is government want to try supportive fiscal policy, on top of the supportive monetary policy as well, which could provide subsidy for consumption, for consumer staples such as appliances, for example. we also expect to see spending from public sector that's going to drive investment in general, so think about connected infrastructure, that could lead to digitizing of the traditional industries such as

transportation, energy, industrials, and manufacturing >> so what does that mean for the stocks you cover do you steer clear right now or are there actual names that could benefit as you start to see some of the shifts take place? >> good question the two stocks that we like despite this very tough environment right now, morgan, one is jd.com. jd is one of the largest e-commerce companies in china. we think consumer consumption will be relatively strong in the back half. they're also gaining market share because the antitrust regulation another company that we like is baidu. their focus on the technology business is on public projects think about how computing for public sectors, also, autonomous driving, supporting government's policy from thought perspective, i think their growth is a lot more in line with the government's initiatives. >> brendan, among the issues, and we kind of touched on this a

fair bit, is these u.s. efforts to make sure that there's inspection capabilities on the audit of these chinese companies. do you see any way around that at this point? because it's really not just the sanctions threat or the economic question it is really, is this sector investable or not? and should u.s. investors feel as if even the chinese authorities don't really want foreign pools of capital building up in their companies >> i think the consequence of hfcaa is a risk we have taken very seriously we have moved kweb from 25% hong kong to just over 70%. we anticipate continued migration out of the us avrs and would highly recommend these are great companies. the companies themselves are doing well despite all of the challenges from a price action and we just want to encourage investors to make sure that they're able to do an adr

conversion, to convert to your custodian, your broker dealer allows you to convert into the hong kong share class, something we have been doing for quite some time and really recommended. unfortunately, holding the hong kong names we really thought would protect our investors. that's not played out in the short run, but i do think in the medium to long run, you want to make sure you can do this migration, and certainly hopefully the two sides can fix this issue this is not a difficult one. james clayton came out with a great solution of the co-audit, the former s.e.c. chair. so i think this is a very solvable issue the two sides just have to sit down and hammer it out >> well, at least brendan, while you have been on air, things have rebounded a bit alibaba is barely down you have that going for you. >> we'll take it >> appreciate your time. thank you both >> as we head to break, the pullback in alternative energy continues, including ev makers like rivian, neo just turning

positive fuel cell stocks like sunrun, bloom energy, and plug power also under pressure. we have a quick break and then rahtheonhetrt"awk t see stig aad d organization depends on different networks, different devices and different ways of working. so how do you manage to keep everything together? cdw can orchestrate a cisco sase solution or secure access service edge. converging security and frictionless connectivity in one cloud based approach. so your dispersed team feels closer to home. for a unified hybrid workforce, trust cisco and it orchestration by cdw. people who get it.

now for our etf spotlight, today taking a look at the i shares biotech etf ticker ibb, under pressure this year, falling more than 21% compared to the s&p's 11% plus declineodm earlier. shares jumping 11% an a spike in covid cases in china moderna currently trading down about 4% on the morning. the stock more than 70% f ofits 52-week high "squawk on the street" will be right back ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations,

like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq ♪♪ yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! ♪♪ ♪♪

i'm rahel solomon and here's your cnbc update russian attacks around kyiv have

intensified. this apartment building was hit in the early morning at least two people are reported dead as those attacks continue, the leaders of poland, the czech republic, and slovenia are traveling to kyiv to show support for ukraine. the leaders have undertaken the trip independently despite the security concerns. >> meanwhile, russian and ukrainian negotiators have started another day of talks ukrainian officials say they're discussing a cease-fire and the withdrawal of russian troops from ukraine >> meantime, back here at home, a suspect has been arrested in the deadly shootings of homeless people in new york city and washington, d.c. he was taken into custody this morning in the nation's capital. d.c. police say the same gun was used in the attacks in both cities morgan, bag to you >> thank you >> russia is schedule today pay more than $100 million in interest payments by tomorrow, but can the country deliver? leslie picker is tracking the

latest developments. leslie >> hey, morgan yeah, russia has about $117 million worth of interest payment due tomorrow to international bond holders, but the question is whether the kremlin will pay and how russia's finance minister said it was, quote, fair for the country to pay in rubles, while its reserves remain frozen due to sanctions but these bonds were issued in dollars, without an option for the kremlin to pay in local currency, and it might not even be feasible to get rubles to bond holders anyway given the sanctions in place so ratings agencies, bond investors, and the overall market is expecting russia to miss its payment a hard default would not take place for another 30 days which is a grace period. in the meantime, another big uncertainty surrounds the credit default swaps market which pay out if russia meets the technical terms of a default jpmorgan strategists wrote in a note yesterday that, quote, as

it stands, it looks like there will be a cds trigger on russian sovereign bonds, whether starting this week or later. russia has about $20 billion in foreign currency bonds while ruble denominated bonds amount to about $42 billion there are also billions more in derivatives links to a potential default. however, a u.s. treasury official told reuters they say limited exposure to sovereign bonds. the primary impact would be on russia raising its future borrowing costs. david. >> leslie, thank you >> want to stick with this basic subject and russia, of course. joining us now, bridge park advisers founder and former undersecretary of commerce for the international trade association, stefen. it's good to see you been a long time >> hey, david. >> give me a sense from your perspective, as to the scope and magnitude of the sanctions on russia and what you think the impact will be over what period

of time on the economy >> great well, look, the sanctions have been speedy, broad, and deep and the impact of the sanctions is already being widely felt, as leslie just said, russian sovereign debt is trading significantly down expecting that there may be the first sovereign debt default crisis since the russian revolution in 1917 inflation is skyrocketing to 20% or 30% the ruble is getting crushed and i think frankly putin could be looking at a potential depression for his economy which would have an unbelievably devastating impact on his population >> yeah. and despite all of that, it's not clear that this all will work to change his behavior, is it if you look at other examples of countries that have been cut off from the world's financial system and subject to similar kinds of sanctions, it's a long time before we see any change, if we do at all.

>> i completely agree. sanctions are not a panacea. to your point, they rarely change autocratic behavior we had sanctions in place forever in cuba and venezuela and north korea and syria and iran and meanwhile, all those leaders are still in place i think the purpose of the sanctions, frankly, is if he is looking for an off ramp, does it make it more likely that he is going to be accommodating in a potential negotiation? because he is feeling the pain and that nuance is exactly what i think western governments and the u.s. government is trying to think through. and i think frankly, our administration, the current administration, deserves a lot of credit for getting it about pitch perfect, which is inflicting real pain on the russian economy, on the one hand, but on the other hand, not making it so devastating domestically that we lose the political will to keep on pressuring and fighting. >> so it seems to me that a lot of this is around timing and the calculus of timing because it

might not be a panacea, these sanctions, but to inflict financial and economic pain, that process and how long that plays out versus this military invasion that is playing out on the ground in ukraine and has with russia basically experiencing a lot more pushback from ukraine than it was anticipating, how those two balance out is really sort of the key here to a potential end to the conflict. is that the way to think about it >> i think it is look, time is not putin's friend here because as these sanctions stay in place longer, the economic impact is going to be more devastating obviously, on the ground, it's going to be much more devastating to the ukrainian people i was a commercial diplomat, the military implications of all this are not my lane, but what i would also say to david's original question is the longer this stays in place, the more profound the impact is going to be to the u.s. economy you know, right now, we're not tipping up against a real

recession. i think the comments and dialogue around stagflation is a bit premature. but clearly, as this goes on and on, we do risk real impact to the u.s. economy >> and of course, it potentially accelerates this trend we have been seeing slowly start to take root over the last couple years which is deglobalization, which you could argue is arguably inflationary how do you see that continuing to play out? >> look, i think the long term impact of this crisis will be outlasted by the geopolitical impact, to your point, which is over the last 40 years in my career, what we have seen is an increasing trend towards globalization. but starting about 15, 20 years ago, we have seen now the impact of technology causing jobs to move from the united states primarily in the manufacturing sector overseas. that creating inequality, that creating frankly a lack of

confidence in political leadership in the united states. then with the rise of china and then the covid pandemic and now ukraine, i think the status quo and what we have seen over that period of time is going to change and we're going to move to a period of regionalization. and as we move towards that regionalization, there are going to be some real economic impacts which is as duplicative capacity is built globally to increase security of goods and services, and to increase jobs, costs are going to go up, inflation is going to go up global growth will slow, and supply chains will be disrupted until that economic realignment happens. i think that frankly is going to play out for a much longer period of time than hopefully what we see in ukraine >> yeah, shorter term, there is continued concern, though, if the chinese were to back russia or send them some sort of weapons or other support, we

might be forced to sanction them were that to occur, how bad would that be for the world economy? >> well, look, you and i have talked about china a ton given how much time i spent in china as undersecretary. i think drawing a direct parallel to what is happening in russia and china is inaccurate the chinese economy is obviously much larger. they are much more integrated into global supply chains and our supply chain we can't forget that the russian economy is both small and narrow they're about our 23rd largest trading partner. and of all the things we buy from them, about half of it is oil and the rest is a narrow set of steel and iron and other minerals that cannot be said about china. and as a result of that, i think kind of extrapolating from what we're seeing in china, the punishments that we have at our disposal in the event we have a confrontation with china, is

wildly different when we start to talk about china. >> yeah, okay. wildly different we'll end it on that and hope we don't have to revisit it thank you. >> good to see you again as we head to a break, let's get another look at energy prices you see wti crude now below $100 actually below $95 at this point, down 8.5% on the day. the s&p energy sector also down about 4.5% right now we'll be right back. stay with us ing manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

i didn't know my genetic report could tell me i was prone to harmful blood clots. i travel a ton, so this info was kind of life changing. maybe even lifesaving. ♪do you know what the future holds?♪

welcome back to "squawk on the street." companies continue to pull out of russia facing government from the u.s. government and consumers. most recently, citi announcing plans to expand its exit coke industry has given no indication of pausing operations for more on how companies are thinking about these decisions, we're joined by professor of market and a cnbc contributor, thanks for being on with us today.

we have seen a pretty -- i would argue what's been a pretty quick turnaround in terms of companies and brands moving to either halt operations or exit their operations on the ground in russia altogether. how would you size that up how does it compare to conflicts we have seen in the past >> yeah, a great question. first, thanks for the opportunity for having me on, morgan, david, and mike. it's really interesting because what we're seeing right now is amplified, it's accelerated. it's fast, and companies really don't have a choice because what we're seeing is that we're seeing -- we're seeing the illustration of a ruthless dictator who is committing crimes against humanity. for a company to say we're not going to have an immediate reaction to that where there's almost no wiggle room, no two sides to a story this is simply something that i think consumers are saying you have to basically make a stand and take a statement on this and pull out those moneys and forego those short term profits because

we're talking about something that is just hard to imagine in terms of a transgression against humanity you're seeing companies react very quickly and if you're a company, morgan, you don't want to be the last one jumping off that bandwagon >> yeah, that said, it is tricky, though, right? you have health care companies that are continuing to operate within the country because they're slying things like vital medications that are helping to chemopeople alive and other types of companies that are supplying means for survival for the general population so i guess walk me through the potential discussions that may be happening behind closed doors where some of these things are concerned, especially, for example, if you're a tech or media company and we have this digital iron curtain that's essentially closing down around russia right now >> yeah, a great point i think that those are two very different examples, though if you can tell a story about how you are -- you're changing, you're pivoting in order to help out in this crisis, that's one thing.

you can lead with that and be pretty effective with respect to placating consumers. but in the more digital world, you're not going to have a chance because in that sort of space, morgan, consumers are not going to be interested in hearing any sort of nuances about some complex argument. they're literally just going to say to you, okay, if you're not pulling out, you're a digital, a tech company, you're not doing this and reacting to this, that must mean that you are implicitly endorsing this. and that is just too dangerous, too risky because these brands have a lot of value and these brands and their value has to be protected over time, so you can't risk the long term value of your brand in order to make sure that you maintain some short term revenues. >> what's the standard looking forward on some decision like this obviously, when the social momentum, with the moral outrage gets to certain level, when it seems to be putting a brand in jeopardy, if you stay in a certain country or do business with certain people, that's

maybe an easy call to make but is that the line, a dictator invades another country and creates these atrocities how do we, if you're a company, how do you make that decision? >> yeah, i think there is a decision calculus. you're 100% correct. you're weighing the roi of moving quickly and taking a stance and making a statement about, well, this is what we stand for, and here's our reaction to this i think in this case, because again, it's not ambiguous, and i am unaware of anyone trying to tell a positive story about this so because it's a 100% saying listen, there's a ruthless dictator killing children and bombing hospitals and basically engaging in genocide, if you're a brand, you're a company, you're probably in the c-suite saying this is not a no-brainer. we have to basically come out and say, unless it's that other situation where it's like you're providing aid and those

activities in the business model are actually trying to help out in this crisis, you have no choice but to say listen, we have to pull out now and we have to make sure we're not the last ones to pull out >> yes it was fairly extraordinary watching this. to your point, the last one, i don't know if there are any left other than, as morgan said, some that are providing real need within the russian economy in terms of health care and things. and it wasn't just consumers i know fidelity, for example, it's my understanding, sent letters as well saying we want you out. don't worry, you'reinate going to get any pressure from the investor side. in fact, it's just the opposite. >> that's 100% correct when i was looking at the list, the list is massive and it's growing and growing all different types of companies, whether it's product services, financial services, all kinds of companies are basically very clearly understanding this is a watershed moments, to your point, david we can't sit around and we can't make an argument about long term

financial security or stakeholder value and some longer term sense because we're notwilling to forego these short term profits we're literally talking about morality and humanity at stake here and so if you're a company that's asking people to pay for products, you cannot associate yourself, you absolutely cannot associate yourself with cannot e yourself with any of this because it's just too risky and too big of a problem and a factor that could compromise and undermine everything you've been trying to do as building that brand asset. >> >> processor, thank you for joining us today >> thank you appreciate the opportunity we have a big show coming up for you on "tech check," including an exclusive with adobe ceo, shantanu narayen. that'll start about 11:30 or so, the interview. let's get a look at the nasdaq intraday high right there, up almost 2%. we'll be back right tethafr is ae policy you no longer need? nowe

you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.

when it comes to cybersecurity, the biggest threats don't always strike the biggest targets. so help safeguard your small business with comcast business securityedge™. it's advanced security that continuously scans for threats and helps protect every connected device. on the largest, fastest, reliable network with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. so you can be ready for what's next. get started with internet and voice for $64.99 a month. and ask how to add securityedge™. or, ask how to get up to an $800 prepaid card. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm dominic chu. we're hitting session highs, or thereabouts for the s&p, up 50 points the communication services

sector is one of the leaders today. we want to look at the recent moves within that sector, starting with netflix. despite today's gains, that stock has given up all of its gains since the start of the pandemic at this point it highlights a trend among several early pandemic beneficiaries that have really struggled to hold on to the momentum gains as the world has now reopened post pandemic the video game publishers, electronic arts, take 2, activision, still higher compared to the start of covid the enthusiasm has waned with all three roughly 20% off their highs. again, the video game trade very much driven by potential or sentiment around m&a see if that lasts. back to you. >> i'll take it, thank you. software in space. a new episode of my podcast, "manifest space" out today, i spoke with the two engineers spearheading the work being done by data analytics heavyweight. it's taken on urgency amid the

russia-ukraine war listen wherever you get your podcasts don't forget to follow the squawk on the street podcast you can't buy love. happiness. or confidence. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. ♪ ♪ - super excited to open up my diploma

from southern new thhampshire university. - i'm nervous, i'm excited. - [man] okay, let's see it. let's see it. - oh my gosh. - as soon as she saw this, i did it and it's here. - [man shouting] yeah! (upbeat music) - [narrator] next term starts soon. visit snhu.edu

welcome back a coalition of investors urging starbucks to change tactics and policies toward workers, seeking to organize. kate rogers is here with more. hi, kate. >> hi, morgan. good morning the coalition of more than 75 investors is led by trillium asset management $3.7 trillion in asset under pr management the letter addressed to the ceo, an independent chair of the board, and strongly recommends the company commit to a global policy of neutrality that would apply to current and future unionization efforts and elections. it calls for the coffee giant to swiftly reach fair and collective bargains with workers who vote to unionize we spoke to several of the signatories. take a listen. >> customers have a choice, and this is going to be the one.

i think the company should work hard to keep its reputation as a people-positive company. that should include being a really good partner to its partners. >> what is important is that the company doesn't just tiptoe right along the line of what is okay in terms of international norms for human rights they really need to embrace human rights and have strong policies to protect worker rights >> the letter argues that a positive working relationship can lead to higher productivity and a stronger work space. it warns starbucks of reputational risks with rapidly growing support for unions publicly starbucks did not respond to request for comment. >> dkate rogers, thank you. the 40 seconds we havesanto so far, what are you keeping an eye on >> well, first of all, we had these intra-day whooshes lower

people are wanting to keep things in a gneutral spot by th fed meeting. intraday allow of january 24th i point that out we've been plowing the same ground here for six or eight weeks. >> okay. that'll do it for us here on "squawk on the street. "tech check" starts now. ♪ good tuesday morning welcome to "tech check." i'm dierdre bosa with jon fortt. a breakdown of the sector as we have a drop and another investor gets bullish on another name ott space. don'