will be along with many others the decision will come at 2:00 p.m. eastern time followed by chair powell's news conference senator warren will throw some pepper into the proceedings tomorrow >> i think so, and a little bit of salt on these markets right now. look at this, dow up 566 points. really interesting setup for tomorrow >> thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" right now. >> stocks are at the highs of the day, and technology is in the lead the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here are my top takeaways. classic stay at home poster children getting some love yes, they have been beaten up, but europe is dealing with a new wave of infection, china is locking down cities and in the u.s., the cdc is tracking an uptick of scovid in our sewage. helping kufrk inflation.

oil is falling again today china is the world's top energy consumer chinese lockdowns are hurting growth if those persist and expand, commodities would see more pain. >> and pregaming the fed decision tomorrow. perhaps the biggest question for investors, the balance sheet the fed has built up more than $9 trillion in holdings buying bonds to stimulate the economy they have to unwind it any word on when and how will be a major market fixation tomorrow market loves stimulus. saying good-bye may be painful let's dive into the big story. big rebound in tech. the nasdaq leading the major averages, up 2.3%. driven by some of the recently hard hit chinese internets like jd.com along with marvell, nvidia, and amd. is the tech trade back on? let's bring in julian emanuel, brent bill from jefferies and our own senior markets commentator, mike santoli. julian, any reason to think this

is more than just a bounce off of very oversold and very hated bear market conditions for tech? >> there's really a lot of things going on. number one, over thelast day o so, the yield in front of the fed tomorrow has stopped skyrocketing higher. basically, we're expecting the market expects seven hikes in 2022 we're looking for six. i would argue that given the sell-off in the commodity markets, there's a little less fear of inflation. and when that's the case, the natural inclination is to go towards the growthier sectors and even a place like china technology stocks is so oversold that a bounce is vastly overdue in our opinion >> how much do your clients hate the stocks you recover right now and is it enough to make you interested and to buy because it's gotten so cheap

>> we're a 10 of 10 on pain. our desk continues to see a lot of negativity. we have seen cash levels go to the highest levels in five years and we're not seeing buyers on our desk it gives you a sense this may be a more bullish sign that we may be vastly oversold but obviously, it's hard to factor in what's going to happen in with the fed on wednesday, what's happening in the unfortunate situation in ukraine, and the hangover of all the other factors and the economy potentially slowing. you look at companies like facebook at 13 times earnings, maybe there's some downside, but at 13 times, you're not taking a big risk with multiple way below the market >> facebook or meta is barely rebounding it's still near the lows so of all the stocks you cover, which valuation looks most enticing you mentioned meta anybody else >> i think other great companies like adobe are starting to look more interesting

we think adobe's 370, so that's getting closer a phenomenal franchise on that side microsoft is still a great story. that's going to grow mid-teens with great earnings leverage and a management team. we like the microsoft story. there's a handful of small and midcap names we think are below takeout valuation. what's more interesting is small and mid. those names right now are trading well below trough. >> like what >> companies like vimio, you look at some of the multiples across smid, these multiples don't make sense you look at software m&a to 8 to 12 times revenue and most of the small and midcape names trading below those names. i think the only concern we have now is are we going to see fundamental weakness we have not seen that in tech.

we have seen everyone say things are phenomenal, everyone came out of the morgan stanley conference and no one is showing any signs of weakness last week. that's the concern now, do the rate hikes and insof the overhang of what's going on in europe have some fundamental impact we haven't seen that yet so that's the only big risk i would call that we're keeping an eye on what we have not seen, we have not seen that in numbers yet >> no fundamental slowdown on the valuation point, brent says the valuations look good, enticing here, is that true or were they way too inflated last year during covid when they got sky-high multiples, some of the multi-billion companies with revenues >> both of those things could be true they were way overinflated last year, especially on the smaller side, and they're becoming more reasonable, and yes, when prices come down, when valuations come in, risk goes lower, not higher. if you look at the overall nasdaq 100, which is still unduly influenced by the largest

stocks, it's gone from like 31 times forward earnings todown to under 23, 22 it's premium to the overall market it's back to where it was in 2018, 2019 it has given up the entire pandemic era excess premium that was built up i think you could say that i mean, apple, again, under 25 times but it used to trade well below that i think it's still up for debate as to whether as a group they're cheap, but they are cheaper. and if overall earnings growth for the s&p 500 is considered to be at some risk, usually people latch on to some of the predictability >> i think if scott minerd is right, if yields peak, tech should be a buy. we're seeing yields come down. that's a key factor. >> you could argue it's underowned or getting there. >> sure. brent, julian, mike, thank you all for joining me to talk about this tech rebound. with the dow now at session highs. we have breaking news on sarah bloom raskin's fed nomination. she's withdrawing it

ylan mui with the details. >> that's right, sara. sarah bloom raskin is withdrawing her name from consideration as vice chair of supervision for the federal reserve. that's according to a source familiar with the situation. and it comes after she faced intense opposition from senate republicans as well as from senator joe manchin. a key democrat who would have provided her that 50th vote she needed in order to get confirmed. senator manchin was opposed to her nomination because he was concerned about her stance on energy policy and her beliefs on climate change in a resignation letter that was obtained by the new yorker, sarah bloom raskin said it is -- it was and is her considered view that the perils of climate change must be added to the list of serious risks that the federal reserve considers. so she is doubling down there on her position and her stance around climate change. she said that she had been the subject of relentless attacks by lawmakers throughout this process. now she is withdrawing her name

from consideration to the federal reserve board, according to a source familiar guys >> well, she is welcome back on "closing bell" for her fed day panel. ylan mui, thank you very much. >> here's a look at where things stand in the markets we have the dow up more than 500 points right now we're building on the gains we saw earlier. 568. the only sector red in the market is energy everybody else higher. consumer discretionary and technology lead the charge airline stocks are rallying hard after a number of major carriers raise their oult looks today up next, the ceo of spirit airlines on what he's forecasting. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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airlines a standout today after some optimistic outlooks united, delta, southwest all moving higher after better forecasts. spirit airlines also rallying, higher by 6% management just wrapping up a presentation at jpmorgan's investor conference saying it sees a v-shaped recovery in demand it's seen that since presidents' day. let's bring in spirit airlines president and ceo, ted christy in an exclusive interview. welcome to the show. talk about what you're seeing as far as demand and why it's better than expected >> thanks for having me on good afternoon it has been a nice recovery out of the omicron depths, just past the new year holiday, we really saw falloff in demand and booking activity as a result of that surge but beginning with the middle part of february, it's been a quick recovery and we're now in position to see

demand really eclipse 2019 levels and starting to see yields get closer to 2019 levels and maybe higher so a very strong spring as we head into spring break >> coupled with that strong demand, you are seeing higher costs. obviously, jet fuel front and center for you how has that changed the economics just in this last surge that we have seen in oil prices >> yeah, it's frustrating, obviously, in the near term, when oil moves quickly like that, it's difficult for airlines to adjust what happens with their network and that sort of thing it good news when you operate an ultra low cost business like ours, we're the most fuel efficient business in the industry, andso as oil prices begin to climb, it actually increases our competitive advantage. and because we burn less fuel per seat it's not a good thing when input costs go up, but we're in a better position than most. >> what does it do for pricing you're seeing the strong demand and rising cost.

does that mean we the travelers are going to be paying higher prices and if so, when >> well, what really drives pricing is demand. input costs in the airline business aren't a big driver of the way prices work. what drives pricing is increased demand, and like we just talked about, there's been a lot more demand into the spring break travel period and we're already seeing it into the summer as well which is very encouraging there will be supportive pricing as a result of all that, but you're talking to the ceo of one of the lowest fare airlines in the industry our job is to key fares low for consumers and stimulate more activity that's what we're excited about doing heading into the summer. >> you're also merging with another low-cost carrier, frontier, to gain scale there. there have been complaints, though some democratic lawmakers do not want to see this deal go through. aoc, senator warren, senator bernie sanders all sending a note to the transportation secretary and the anti-trust regulators saying it will not result in lower prices for

consumers. and it will not be a friendly deal look, it's a tough environment for antitrust right now. the biden administration has blamed corporations and monopolies for some of the inflation we're seeing are you going to struggle to get this deal done >> we're really excited about this deal and feel very good about the case we're going to present. while there has been some -- we have seen the letter as well i think what was key in there is they were focused on if the transaction were to provide some problems with pricing or competition then they would be concerned. what we're excited to show is this is actually a very pro-consumer, pro-competitive deal because you have the two lowest cost businesses cullbining to drive lower fares and more growth. we're looking forward to giving that story i think at the end of the day our deal gets done >> talk to us about the pricing because i think the response or the criticism has been if you get together and gain scale and become more of a competitor for

united or delta, the bigger airlines, you have room to raise prices to compete with them. >> well, you start with the dna of both businesses, which has always been about low cost, low fares, stimulation that's going to continue post the transaction closing. and so we'll make sure we outline that to them this is a unique deal, different than any other airline merger they have experience with, so they may be a little jaded based on other transactions that have been done in the past, but we can show them what this deal is going to do for consumers, for our guests, for our team members and our shareholders and i think they'll be supportive. >> i think i'll wear a mask on planes from now on and i was just on a plane this past weekend, and everybody has to wear a mask but that is set to change. the cdc is postponing that decision how does your staff feel about it do they want people to still wear masks >> well, it's been a challenge, obviously. this has been a difficult couple years for all of us as we adjusted to the realities of the

pandemic and facial coverings onboard airplanes were adopted early on there's still an faa mandate in place today that has been extended into april. and our teams are obviously supportive of and complying with the regulation there has been an uptick, however, in unruly passenger behavior, and it can be largely acontributed to some friction associated with the facial coverings. i think when the time is right, that the cdc and the faa decide it's time to relax the mask mandate, that will be received positively by the crews because it can cool the cabin a little bit. until that happens, our group will adhere to the requirements and make sure people have their facial coverings on. >> that would be good if we do not see unruly passengers as a result ted, thank you stocks ticking to the highs of the day on this interview. ted christie, ceo of spiret. let's check in on the markets. we have about 43 minutes left of trading. we have the dow at session highs and continuing to move higher, up 600, more than 600 points

right now. the s&p 500 up 2%. the nasdaq is in the lead, up 2.5% the chips are coming back, software names, everything that was beaten down the hardest, retail and consumer names. small caps lagging, up only 1% the odds of a recession in the u.s. are rising according to our latest survey. what does that mean for the market keanlihainitut next (vo) this is more than just a building. it's an ai-powered investment firm with billion-dollar views. a cutting-edge data-security enterprise. yes, with a slide. a perfect location for the world's first one-hour delivery. an inspiration for the next workout cult. and enough space for a pecan-based nutrition bar empire. it could happen. because there's space for any dream on loopnet.

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up 600 points right now on the dow. wall street forecasters are upping the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months. that's according to cnbc's latest fed survey. mike santoli here with the dashboard of the day, looking at the historical path of stocks if recession is on the horizon. >> after a deep correction it's the only thing that matters from here. this is all of history's at least 18% declines in the s&p 500. we have not yet gone to 18%. at the recent lows, down 15% the blue line is if there has

not been a recession after the 18-month decline you're up on average 14% this is very intuitive obviously. >> all we have to do is figure out if there's going to be a recession or not >> is there? >> it's tricky the three month to ten-year treasury yield if it goes negative has predicted in a timely way the last few recessions and that is far, far, far from inverting that's at least a little comfort. >> a lot of people look at the twos-tens and it is flattening and the flattest it's been in years. if that inverts, that's also a recession signal >> it is, but usually with a longer lead time and one that has a lot more play in it. we still have 20-something basis points in there. between the twos-tens. i think it's less than 50% probability. >> we'll see what the fed says about it, if anything, tomorrow. mike, thank you. >> up next, the ceo of cybersecurity firm palo alto networks on the cyberrisks from russia right now, and competing against google, which is

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palo alto networks up more than 50% over the past 12 months. recently, the stock has come

under pressure, down 10% or so over the past two weeks even as chatter grows around rising risks from russia. let's bring in today's closer in person nikesh arora what a treat good to see you. >> nice to see you as well >> talk to us about what the threats are looking like coming to ukraine from russia and potentially beyond ukraine as far as cyber >> well, as you know, we are in something that is unconscionable in the world, and we have been witnessing activity just even before the war started where we were beginning to see attacks into ukraine and some western entries in ukraine and most recently, as companies have started to react to sanctions, started to pull out of russia, we're beginning to see activity against some of those companies which is still a bit low, i think russia is not trying to pick too many battles. but i think i have never been as worried about cybersecurity as i am now, given what i think we're going to see in the next s6 or 1

months >> from russia specifically? >> i think so. in my mind, sanctions are economic warfare, we're going to create damage, which is the intent because we want to make sure they don't do what they're doing, but i can't expect there will not be a reaction to that, and the reaction will be in some sort of cyberwarfare, which is another way of inflicting reverse economic pain and creating chaos or shutting things down. >> who's most vulnerable, the companies that have left russia you mentioned? >> the nature has changed. it has gone from individual attacks. we looked at companies that was being attacked data was exfiltrated and sold on the web, or companies were held ransom on the web. i think the next set of attacks will be to create chaos and shut things down. similar to the colonial pipeline event. imagine if that was the intent and they were not willing to settle for economic returns or

you couldn't pay them off to turn the systems back on ransomware is a bigger risk and we should all be vigilant. >> can we protect against it >> of course, this is gnaw a new topic. we talked about september 2020 about nation state activity, about how companies need to get ahead of this thing. it's moving from the technology teams to the board rooms i think all of us are paying attention. we have talked about this, the pandemic exacerbated all of this as well. >> have you seen a ramp in spending from corporations since the war began? >> we have seen more thoughtful, strategic spending around cybersecurity, more sort of the run of the mill, less buy it like you buy i.t., we see people worry, what is our cybersecurity posture. we're seeing spending done in a much more thoughtful manner. you have seen the white house get involved you have seen an executive order on cybersecurity for the first time we saw the establishment of jcdc, so we're seeing activity,

which is forcing companies to focus more, but still a lot more needs to be done >> i guess i'm trying to figure out where you are in a very long growth cycle you're coming up on some tough comps. everything went online during covid. so are we still growing at those levels or was it pulled forward? >> the unfortunate part is strife and war is good for our business we are seeing more focus we have spent three years transforming our company we figured out where we thought the pack was going we built a huge cloud security business that's the next bastion where cyberwars are going to be fought we have built a business focused on real time providing security, and we acquired a business getting a lot of attention, where we look at companies from an attacker's perspective. when you're doing cybersecurity when you're in no imminent threat of danger, you make sure everything is running. today you're trying to see if i'm a nation state trying to

attack your company, what am i looking at >> good hackers. does wall street understand the difference when it comes to your compe competition, zscaler, crowdstrike, what's the difference and do you think wall street gets it >> i think wall street is slowly getting. it's evident in our stock price. obviously, they haven't fully got it yet from our perspective, we're the first cybersecurity -- three years ago when i came, there is no one cybersecurity which is going to become our strategic partner because we have 30, 40 now, we're seeing companies consolidate against our three platforms, 47% of our customers use all three of our platforms three years ago, that was one platform out of the three. we're seeing the desire for people to consolidate with one partner. we're seeing people focusing with us on a better cybersecurity posture. >> you're going to be competing with google now buying mandiant. >> i worked with google for ten years. i look forward to that discussion look, mandiant, whether you like it or not, actually, september

2020 when we talked, we talked about a company that was in the incident response business and we bought it then because we knew you need senior cybersecurity advisers to sit down with you and look at a posture and help you if you get attacked that's what mandiant does. that's an essential service that's needed. >> a nice thing to say about your competitor. more consolidation coming? >> cybersecurity doesn't consolidate as easily as you think because a lot of stuff that is slow growth and old and doesn't solve the problems of today. so cybersecurity has to be forward looking. acquisitions and start-ups and your companies are highly unlikely people are going to buy older cybersecurity companies. >> nikesh, great to hear from you, especially right now. some of the increased activity >> take a look at the market continue to zoom higher here in the final hour of trade. fresh session highs, up 650 points almost on the dow the nasdaq in the lead, take a look, up 3%. we have gone positive on the week

still down about 20% or so from the highs. russell 2000 lags, up 1.25%. up next, why shares of coupa software are getting crushed right now. and you can listen to "closing bell" on the go by following the "closing bell" podcast on your favorite podcast app we'll be right back.

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- [narrator] next term starts soon. visit snhu.edu the big picture today. coupa software is falling around

20%, even as the nasdaq surges to session highs in our big picture segments, we try to glean a macro message from a stock story for coupa, it's slowing growth the cloud software company posted a beat on earnings this morning but growth is decelerating and more importantly, guidance missed estimates. the pure play cloud names all saw their business boom during covid but now worried about demand being pulled forward are materializing. the bloom is coming off the rose, as web bush's dan ives says this environment for growth especially in the smaller cloud names will be more challenges than in covid when corporations had money to spend it could be a harbinger of weakness in spending >> when we come back, a top analyst at bernstein calls peloton an unlikely hero she'll outline while she's bullish on the stock, plus, david zervos on the fed's big meeting tomorrow, how it could impact the markets those stories and more when we go inside the market zone.

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see it in, and our sources in china say there's going to be steep decline, but only for two weeks because the government has gotten a lot better at controlling these breakouts but we are expecting china to be firing on all cylinders until next year anyway >> what happens next what are your targets? >> look, crude is going to be very volatile. it is, again, because of all these risk management issues and the lack of ability of traders to warehouse risk, but ultimately, this summer we absolutely see prices heading higher we are going to test the 2008

highs and we don't think demand really starts to fall below $160 if rationing is required, that's where prices have to go. >> thank you for joining us. another big decline for crude oil prices zoom has given up all its gains since bpandemic began and then some this is an attractive entry point according to our next guest who upgraded the stock to buy from hold. let's bring in matthew harrigan. why now? did it get just too cheap? >> i think it really did get too cheap. i'm startled to see it below $100, quite frankly. i think it basically just discounts the current needs business it doesn't give them any street cred at all for developing the platform orientation over a period of time and they're very underpenetrated in the corporate global 2000 in terms of accounts sharing over $100,000 annually

so i think this is a remarkably attractive entry point here. >> mike santoli, i feel like people have been trying to bottom pick this stock for a while, arguing we're going to be in a hybrid work environment not everybody is back at the office we're still going to rely on tools like zoom and it's one letdown after another when it comes to earnings. what's the other side? >> i think you can actually now take a little comfort in the fact that somebody, plenty of people, paid more than the current share price for zoom in late 2019, before anybody had heard of coronavirus so you're no longer paying up for some kind of the world is changing type of story where we're all going to be working from home. it's much more about there's been a lot of adoption over the last couple years and it now has an earnings base yes, it's not really growing yes, maybe it's going to be a smaller or slower growing total market than we thought six months ago, but at least now you can value it based on some of the results, even though that stock looks ugly and i still think a lot of people have been

burned in it, so maybe people will be wary for a while >> matt you have a $124 target on the stock talk us through the valuation. >> basically, it's just off the five-year model, and again, not giving them a lot of platform upside really to get to justify where the stock was a few months ago, still in the mid-100s, you had to run out to the middle of 2030s. and i think the valuation and substance were too aggressive at this point i think this is really safe and sane here. you have also got maybe a 4.5% free cash flow yield so to have that and have the growth upside here which i still think is there off a great ceo and a great brand, and then just double digit growth in unified communications over a period of time, hybrid and work and work flows, this has a real attractive risk reward we had to discipline ourselves not to upgrade it a number of times. i think this is a great entry point. this may not get below -

>> no more disciplining. you're out with the upgrade today. matt, the other bear case we hear on zoom often is competition and bigger stronger competition like a microsoft with teams and whether that's made an impact on its business >> teams, microsoft is certainly a frenemy overall. teams integrates pretty well for a lot of microsoft applications. really, when you look at the meetings market, it's kind of one-third, one-third, one-third with webx and meetings and i think zoom continues to have a lot of traction there for evident reasons as a global brand. and a great experience >> matt, thank you for joining us on the call today matt harrigan, up grading zoom t buy. >> speaking of stay at home stocks, a new ceo, tighter belt and new supply chain strategy is behind bernstein's call on peloton, initiating outperform on the stock, $40 price target about 50% upside from here

let's bring in the angalist behind the call, aneesha sherman who writes it's time to buckle in for the ride. aneesha, thanks for joining us is this just a call in your faith in the new management? >> thanks for having me. it's less about the new management and it's more about the fact that this is still a healthy core business. it has extremely high user engagement, industry low levels of churn, and a huge tam and so yes, it's decelerated from the covid levels when people were working out 26 times per month. we're not working out that much anymore at home. but on a long run, this is still a very attractive stock with a healthy business and the market is pricing in all the downsides. if you look at what's priced in at the market right now, it's essentially minus 75% growth on hardware and like zero growth on subscriptions. which i think is too bearish you have to believe it's going to grow subscriptions a little

bit beyond where it was last year market is assuming it doesn't gain a single new subscriber and that hardware sales drop by 75%. so we think that the path from here is up and to the right. >> mike santoli, a healthy business it certainly is not how wall street is pricing it at least if you look at the stock decline from the highs >> yeah. obviously, fast money in, fast money out. we still have to have a certain leap of faith in terms of confidence when it will turn bottom line profitable because it's not being run that way now. but a billion dollars plus in trailing digital subscription revenue. just subscription revenue, when you have the market cap below $8 billion. it wasn't that long ago that the street was willing to put huge multiples on anything that seemed like subscription here we have the noise of the hardware and what can we expect about future adoption. so obviously, not as easy a call as when you have earnings, but it's derisked to a degree and

this is another situation where people in 2019 right after the ipo for peloton paid more than it's trading for now >> aneesha, it's especially problematic when you have weak fundamentals and lack of profitability in a time where the market is worried about fed rate hikes and the fed is going to get aggressive when it comes to fighting inflation. if that's the message we hear tomorrow, what happens to a stock like peloton isn't that a challenge to your optimistic view? >> so peloton isn't going after the consumer that's going to be most squeezed by inflation, which is the more lower income consumer it's going to be tightened by the increases in staples -- >> i guess i meant on the valuation, there valuation reset. higher rates, stocks, unprofitable stocks, stocks that had been inflated have come back down to earth and have been among the most hated it's been the story of the nasdaq, but peloton in the cross hairs. >> absolute re peloton was trading at kind of six plus times sales it's now, we think, a

varvaluation is about three times sales. even if you put a normal conservative valuation on it, and you look at what the market's pricing in, it's pricing in an incredible decline in trajectory, which just doesn't seem reasonable. >> aneesha, thank you for joining us with the call bullish call on peloton, $40 target stocks are rebounding. we have seven minutes to go before the close ahead of the muchimented fed decision where officials are expected to raise rates for the first time since covid let's bring in david zervos. what is the biggest wild card or uncertainty going into the fed meeting? we know they're going to raise rates. we know they're going to talk about fighting inflation what don't we know >> we really don't know how hawkish jay powell is going to be in the press conference how the discussion about the balance sheet unwind is going to get presented to us. and how the forward guidance on

rates is going to be presented to us. my guess is it's going to sound a little bit more hawkish than people want it to sound. and that's going to be a little tough to digest, particularly in the fixed income markets the equity market might digest it better, but it's going to be a tough swallow. we have a 7.9% headline cpi. we have a lot of supply chain issues that are now cropping up not just because of the war but also because of the return of covid in china and it just doesn't feel like they're going to sit there and go, okay, this is going to go away soon don't worry, i got you that was the message last year i think there's got to be a lot more actions than words and i think they're ready to do it >> on the flipside, we also have global growth that is weakening and a u.s. economy that is slowing, yes, off higher growth, but because of the very high inflation, because of the fact that russia is basically cut off from the world and that hurts europe which eventually hurts us

china is in lockdown the global growth picture looks very different, so i wonder if he'll strike any sort of dovish tone around that, or no, they're just focused on inflation? >> i really don't. if you look at the housing, market in the united states, it's as strong as it has been since the housing bubble you look at the labor market, 3.8% unemployment rate, we're probably through full unemployment anybody at the bottom end of the income could get a job easily at a very good wage compared to a year or two ago. i think there's one blemish on the fed's record and that is inflation. they have to do something about it, and sort of the criticisms are there. they have been pretty heavily criticized for being a little too slow i think jay, as you know, we talked about this i think around jay's testimony to the senate, the semiannual testimony, talked about paul volcker and he was iconifying paul volcker after

senator shelby's remarks i think he wants to be paul volcker more than he wants to be arthur burns >> which means he is going to have to get very aggressive and which means he could have to sink the economy into a recession, which is what chair v volcker did. the nasdaq is still 20% off the highs. if david is right and the message is a volcker like message, whatever it takes on inflation, can you buy tech stocks >> i think the question is how much has already been essentially built in to where the market finds itself before the fed meeting. you know my mantra before fed meetings the stock market likes to pull itself into a neutral spot right into the meeting we're right at the middle of the four-week range in the indexes at this point. it's done that at this point i also wonder how it will be taken when the last dot plot of the fed was three hikes this year this now, the market is pricing in seven so can powell sound net hawkish based on what they said before and still the market is not

necessarily taking it poorly >> that's a good question, david. what do you think? the market has already gotten ahead of itself on this or maybe not, but certainly expecting a pretty hawkish stance. >> i think the market is expecting in the rate space a relative amount of hawkishness that would only take us to 1.75 on rates, which is where we were going into covid with low inflation and the same unemployment rate, but it's really the balance sheet, the $5 trillion that we added in two years where we need to see what the fed is going to say. and powell has been a bit wishy-washy on that. the last time he talked about it, he wasn't so hawkish prior to that, he was quite hawkish. there's a lot of variables here. >> agreed. >> the bottom line is for this year, the fed is just not your friend it was your friend in many other cases because we had that low inflation, historically low inflation from the misses we accumulated over many years. this is a fed that kind of has to act tough and we have to take

some tough medicine because of what happened with inflation whether it's the fed's fault and it's demand driven or supply disruptions, it's that blemish on the report card that i think they have to expunge it could be a little painful it is a little bit painful >> it certainly has been yeah, doesn't sound like that will change, according to you. david zervos, thank you. agreed the balance sheet is the big wild card. two minutes to go in the trading day. mike, pretty nice rally here more than 2% higher on the s&p what do you see in the internals? >> pretty positive on the internals although i can predict what some of the strategists in the technical types are going to see in the morning it's 3 to 1 advancing versus declining volume on the stock exchange that's perfectly fine, but it's not something that's so persuasive that says some kind of massive rush of buying interest and demand found its way to the market. it's still a wait and see market still some things to prove did want to take a peek at gold going into the fed meeting the chart, at least over the

last six months, looks like a slightly paler version of oil. that's a pretty good peak. poked above $2,000 a little less than two years ago poked above $2,000 in the latest month and it's retreated if this is essentially something that benefits from the perception that central banks have things out of control, probably good it's on the decline right now as the dollar goes higher. volatility index, it's easing back a little bit. still pinned at 30 people have made the point, the fed has never done an initial rate hike with a fix anywhere near 30. this is kind of a tricky spot no matter how you slice it. even though it is off its highs, the vix, from the mid-30s several days ago >> less than a minute to go to the bell we have 28 out of 30 dow stocks higher right now a sizable rally. microsoft is adding the most to the dow, adding about 68 points. home depot also a big contributor. look at the s&p 500, more than 2% gains into the close. every sector is positive consumer discretionary is your best performing sector energy is the only group lower today. the airlines are skyrocketing

after better forecast, technology is a big winner today as well. microsoft, apple, all of the big cap techs. that's going to do it here for us on "closing bell. see you tomorrow for the most important hour of trading. we'll send it to overtime with scott wapner >> and welcome to overtime i'm scott wapner you just heard the bells we are just getting started. we'll speak exclusively today to billionaire investor marc lasry on where he's finding opportunities in the market. we begin with our talk of the tape a nice bounce for stocks but can you trust it that's the big question we're all wondering now, and some big name investors suggest it really is time to buy stocks even with so much uncertainty still out there. let's take it right to our o.t. panel, joining us today, adam parker, liz young, and dan