i should remind you as well, we have that exclusive interview tomorrow, double line capital ceo jeffrey gundlach will be here i can't wait for that conversation to start. speaking of starting, that does it today for "overtime" here "fast money" up at the nasdaq begins right now ♪ live from the nasdaq nasdaq overlooking new york city's time square, this is "fast money. ahead on fast, a beijing bounce. chinese stocks rebounding a bit after an ugly week of selling. two of the biggest names on the mainland are not coming along for the ride plus, warning shines flashing, the off the charts move in nickel, aluminum and other metals how worried should investors be about a blowup in this space meme stock to mining stock why amc is literally digging for

gold lights, camera, mining helmet? we start off with the countdown to what will be the first fed -- likely be the first fed rate hike in more than three years. expected to announce an increase to its target rate in just about 21 hours the decision comes as chairman jerome powell manages a delicate balancing act. elevated commodity prices, new snarls in the supply chain and re-emerging covid fear and is we can't forget the war in ukraine which could further fuel inflation and supply chain problems is it time for powell to go full hawk brian kelly, i'm going to toss it over to you the good things that we mentioned, we'll say, the economy can handle it. the economy right now needs it what do you say? >> yeah, i think the one thing that the fed has done a tremendous job at is their communication channel. and they have done everything to

tell the market that they are going to raise rates regardless of what's going on geopolitically the biggest indicator for me, yesterday "the wall street journal" laid out three different scenarios. the fed raises a little, the fed raises a little bit more, and then the fed raises a ton to really crush inflation i think right now what they need to do is get their creditability back when it comes to inflation and they're going to worry about unemployment and the rest of the economy later. now, the question is, i think 25 basis points is baked in the market is pricing in seven hikes over the next year i would put the probability of that happening i think very low, close to zero, because i think something breaks before they get even close to that >> breaks, meaning recession what does that mean, breaks? >> meaning recession for me, i am looking at investment grade bonds

when you start to see those spreads blow out recession is the most likely scenario as they raise rates, if they raise them maybe, let's call it 50 basis points. i think that probably causes a severe recession >> so i agree with everything he is saying particularly on the communicating. a raise is baked in. it's a question of how much, 25 seems to be the consensus, and how many times i think they've gotten a little bit of cover with the ukraine situationbecause it's really a wild card. we've seen what it does to commodities and supply chain issues as a result of it so i think they actually have a little bit of cover to be a little less hawkish if they want so to me, it also doesn't matter whether it's five, six, seven. that doesn't matter. i feel like what they do with the balance sheet will be more of an issue for credit markets and rates and then maybe that sort of spiral that b.k. talked about, do you start to see the

bond market really get hit that to me is a risk but it's somewhere down the line. >> right, right. it's amazing that we live in a world where we could be talking about a fed that could go extremely dovish or full-on hawkish. this is the spectrum of possibilities that we live with because of the circumstances of namely inflation i mean, the inflation picture is just gotten untenable in some ways >> yeah, but, you know, inflation is what apparently they were longing for all along. be careful what you wish for because you may get it now we got it and we got it in spades a couple things. bk is probably right my pushback would be, and i'm curious what steve thinks, if this economymarket, whatever, can't take two 25-point rate increases, we have bigger

problems bithan we realize. i think they went full hawk in late november, early december. i don't think they've really backed off from that correctly so to karen's point -- i'm not suggesting i'm right this is a counterargument. if peace were to break out tomorrow, hopefully that's the case, that's inflationary. if this thing continues along the path that it's currently on, that's inflationary. so in my world, either outcome just continues to push the inflation button so, you know, we'll see. i do think they've done a masterful job in talking to the market without question and the mandate of making sure the market continues to go higher they've done an extraordinary job at obviously until recently. >> i think guy brought up an interesting point in terms of whether or not this economy can handle two 25-basis point hikes. i don't know if it's a question of whether the economy can handle it. i would think that the economy could handle it.

but maybe the markets would not be able to handle it >> i think the markets can handle it too. i think the markets need it. and any sign that they're going to have to move slower will be disastrous for the markets we can't hear something tomorrow that says, you know, we're going to be on pause i don't want to hear that that's as dovish as they are. and we've all said more or less there's been ebb and flow. but we priced in six to seven hikes. you can see the curve up around 183 and change there's no question that the market has been, you know, hard at work while the fed has been -- everybody has been right. they went full hawk, not fauxhawk, by the way i think you have a case here where the market wants to see some of this but the other kind of story line here is that this is a fed that really since they flooded the market with qe, especially after the financial crisis and qe-1,

you know, they actually were very successful in raising inflation. if you look at qe-1 through qe-4, each time, they cranked it up when you do various measures of asset prices. now the question really is, ca the fed do as much as they want to and that's what we're really most worried about and we're all worried about them also, you know, knocking the market, but knocking the economy because they're moving too quickly but, unfortunately, i think we're also looking at the history where the fed after massive rate cuts can never hike enough to get you back to an equilibrium. >> guy, it seems like the problem that the fed -- i don't want to say the problem. but the situation that the fed finds itself in, it has communicated every step of the way so openly and transparently that they are now in a box as tim mentioned if you see a fed that goes dovish, more dovish than expected, people will panic if you see a fed that goes more hawkish, people will panic they will jump to conclusions

about what that says about the economy. so you know what, full steam ahead. 25 basis points. done why are we even talking about this, right? >> it's interesting. i don't think they're going to be more hawkish than they currently are. i just don't think that's going to happen. i think to tim's point, i think if they were to pivot again and somehow get more dovish based on, again, the geopolitical things, market might like that for a couple of days, but i think that would be -- again, just my opinion, extraordinarily problematic going forward. i think they've set forth the right course and i just think they have to stay the course but, again, this is someone in me that thought jerome powell in october of 2018 was on the right course i'll die on that hill. i love that jerome powell. and he got browbeat by the administration at the time and the fact that the market went down 19.9% from basically halloween, boo, until christmas eve of that year >> i think the fed has got to

sort of bite the bullet and not care what the market does. it's not their mandate we seem to think it is -- >> the horse is out of the barn on that. that ship sailed long ago, to mix all of my metaphors together here. >> maximum employment and inflation, right not the market and that's to guy's point, somehow in 2018, they were hijacked by the market i think that time is over now. they got to do -- even if the market doesn't like it, too bad. >> if it really said, forget about the market, we don't care, they would have hiked already, i would think. they would have hiked in january. they would have done -- why not, bk >> i think karen is right, the dynamic has changed a lot. we have a different administration where main street matters more than wall street right now. i think the fed doesn't care a dime about the market at this point in time. all they care about is getting inflation down for main street

so gas prices aren't up, so when the midterm elections come around, they actually get to keep their position and the democrats win. i think that is the plan they could care less about the market it's a matter of different administrations. i think the fed was pretty hawkish. they've got the market down 20%. i don't think they really care that it's down here. the only thing they'll care about now is, like i said, if something breaks if the credit market gets too expensive, the housing market happens to seize up, those things that matter to main street is what i'm thinking -- looking at for breakage. but i don't think the fed cares about the s&p 500 anymore at all. >> let's get to steve liesman, bring him into this conver conversation how do you think the fed is going to telegraph the next move >> that's a good question, melissa. and i think listening to the conversation, i think the way to think about tomorrow's meeting

is a day when the fed puts its cards down and we figure out that the market gets those cards correctly. let's think about it 25 basis points tomorrow and the 25 basis points in may -- or may and june the next hundred basis points, that's already done. you guys are out there living -- you're already living with 130 basis points of tightening tomorrow's quarter point is done the next two or done we're done all the way through we priced in six months. pretty much done you're already living with that. what's happening tomorrow is, powell is going to put his cards down, the fed is going to put their cards down, and we're going to talk about the six months or the year after that. that's really what the debate and the question is about. you are already investing and figuring out things. i'm talking to cfos that are

living with higher rates right now. when you talk about what the fed has done, it has engineered a tightening of financial conditions the financial conditions are tighter, if you look at the stock market levels, fixed income levels. so tomorrow we look at the forecast of the federal reserve and then we hear how powell attenuates or does not forecast to say this is where we're going. my best guess on this, he doesn't see any more than you guys see through the fog of war here and the uncertainty created by what's happening with supply and inflation. so what i think he does is he tells you, hey, you guys are probably right and okay for the next six months. beyond that, i'm going to come back in june or so -- back before that. but fundamentally in june. and i'm going to tell you about the next six months after that frankly, i can't see what's

going on beyond that >> how does that make you feel as an investor, tim? six months is okay after that, we have no idea. >> it makes me feel fine i don't think the market needs to have an idea out a year and a half i think the market needs to understand really where we're going to be, and steve's point on the fed is ultimately not in a position to understand the dynamics they're going to tell us that their data-dependent this is that communication factor a couple things here i think this is an independent fed. i want to believe our federal reserve is independent and i know people think once powell got reappointed he turned into the hawk that he is, by the way check out the history. i know steve knows this. he studies the fed this is a fed chairman who i think is more hawkish than his two predecessors and i think it's something the market should think about. we get back to a place here -- the one thing i'm the most worried about is, you walk around and you try to go out to dinner, you try to do various things on a reopening trade and

you realize that the labor force, there's not enough people working. i think in six months, those jobs aren't going to be there for these people i'm telling you. i think we're in a place here between inflation and between where the headwinds and the economy are from the fed and i think the labor market which the fed targets is going to be their biggest issue. >> steve, it's interesting, you mentioned the market is priced in i agree with you that the bond market has priced it in. and i know your answer is going to be, that's why you guys do this show. just your opinion, do you think the equity markets have priced all this in? >> you know, i do think so i think when you saw the shine come off of those crazy multiple nasdaq stocks and then you had obviously a rotation out of the -- we are going to be staying at home forever stocks -- or valuations on stocks to sort of more reasonable valuations in some of those things that went -- that went nuts during the pandemic, i think the market is adjusting.

and if powell has done anything well, i believe he's engineered this in a way that doesn't stop the market from falling, but keeps the market from having a systemic risk, taper tantrum type issue i think he's going to say, look, i'm sorry that you guys bid it up here and you kind of did it on my say-so, which i think that is a problem ultimately. but at the end of the day, he's had this long ramp up to this moment here where he's first hiking rates the fed started this back in at least november i think i was on the show, right, when we had that argument on november 29th or 30th, when powell made that pivot and it was a hard pivot. and the market has reacted so we are well down the road you're not going to be going into the cold water for the first time tomorrow. you guys are already, i don't know, maybe ankle to knee deep

to where you're going. and the question is, do we go straight to 2% do we have to go to 2.5% it's all going higher and the question is, the time period for the adjustment i think powell is cognizant of that i think he's cognizant of the idea that he doesn't want to have a major hiccup. he wants to give the market time to adjust. and i think guy was talking about, yeah, this market can take a quarter, it can take a half it's already taken 1 1/2 it's already pretty much in there. the two year, 130 basis points higher than when i was on here on 11/29 i marked that date the five-year, right now if you're a business and you're going into the market to get funding, you've got a deal with the spread over the five-year, because that's a place where business does business, that five-year rate that's 100 over. you're already dealing with that it's in the economy. i think that's kind of good news if you're thinking about getting together but you got to say, okay, all that is true we know that

we can understand it but the problem becomes, understanding how this next wave of price hikes works its way through the system does it create a drag on demand such that we have this high inflation and this issue of lower growth >> steve, good to see you. i'm sure we'll see you tomorrow, lots. >> big day tomorrow. going to be fun. >> huge day, brian kelly how do you think tomorrow is going to play out? >> big day so, listen, the market is set up, actually, for a relief rally. if you look at -- we've priced in an awful lot. as long as powell doesn't screw this up, i actually think the market could be in for a relief rally. relief rallies and bear market rallies, if that's what you want to call this, can be pretty extreme. so i think there's the potential for that let's put it this way. i would not want to be short this market going into the meeting tomorrow as a trading position >> i think there's volatility either way, but i think that they're not going to give us the

full information -- steve talked about all of their cards at the table. i don't know that we'll hear about balance sheet issues if we do, that could move the market a lot >> sticking with the fed ahead of the fed decision tomorrow, check out cnbc pro, they have one sector that could be a standout. china stocks bouncing back not everyone is coming along for the ride plus, is there trouble brewing in commodity houses. brian kelly is breaking down what he sees bubbling under the surface. more on that when "fast money" returns. don't go anywhere. thanks for coming. now when it comes to a financial plan this broker is your man. let's open your binders to page 188... uh carl, are there different planning options in here? options? plans we can build on our own, or with help from a financial consultant? like schwab does. uhhh... could we adjust our plan... ...yeah, like if we buy a new house? mmmm... and our son just started working. oh! do you offer a complimentary retirement plan for him? as in free?

just like schwab. schwab! look forward to planning with schwab. ♪ ♪ at cdw, we get today your hybrid organization depends on different networks, different devices and different ways of working. so how do you manage to keep everything together? cdw can orchestrate a cisco sase solution or secure access service edge. converging security and frictionless connectivity in one cloud based approach. so your dispersed team feels closer to home. for a unified hybrid workforce, trust cisco and it orchestration by cdw. people who get it. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison, my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors the garcia's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized. hey john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to.

it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation.

with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. welcome back to "fast money. between regulatory risks, tensions over russia, and a new wave of omicron, stocks in china have been getting slammed. after selling, a number of these names are bouncing back. bilibili up more than 11%. it broke a three-day losing streak two big names are not coming along for the ride they may look like bargains.

>> i was looking at alibaba last night. that doesn't include their ownership stakes in other companies. it was like valuation porn it's crazy all of that having been said, really not knowing are they going to be unable to trade, so i got to stay away no matter how attractive it looks on paper. >> why do you think these giants are being left out >> i mean, this is a family show i thought i heard a naughty word you have a case here where, in fact, if you look at where jp morgan is on alibaba, at least the hong kong version, it's important to point out if some of these stocks, despite the regulatory risks in the u.s., if they trade in hong kong, u.s. adr should be fungible but jp morgan has got it at seven times 23 so i think part of the dynamic -- let's be clear.

this is not why the stocks are trading where. but china consumption has a major head wind to it. we know china is slowing their central bank is one of the only central banks in the world that is cutting rates and i think that's built into some of the consumption dynamic and is the e-commerce but this is all about big brother. alibaba, it's a very sad story i still have a position, a much smaller position, one i've traded down significantly. it's hard for me to sell here. in fact, i actually think that at some point china has to do something to instill confidence. it's a china off right now it's a de-risking china trade. that's something you can see in the eem, the kweb. these are vehicles that are being sold and creates opportunity. >> it's a sad story for a lot of investors out there. softbank has lost $25 billion during this tech downdraft it's got a big steake in alibaba that's not been helping matters.

the idea that softbank will have to cut some of their stakes in the winners in order to raise funds. guy, what do you make of this sector >> yeah, we should have asked the ghost of potter stewart to come on the show tonight to maybe he would be able to speak about what karen was speaking about. i'll say this about alibaba. you go back to halloween a few years ago, boo, again, when it was a $310 stock it's come off 80%. along the way, there have been a number of mine-numbing rallies given the volume it traded today, i think it traded north of 85 million shares, i would submit -- and you can fast fire to me tomorrow, it's happened before -- that we're on the precipice of another one of those rallies. it doesn't mean we're out of the woods. you could easily see this stock go up over a two-day period and still be in this significant down trend. >> you'll know it when you see it, going back to your

reference. brian kelly, alibaba used to be the example, the epitome, the poster child of the growing chinese economy, right it's got its cloud business too. it's the amazon of china effectively. there's something there, isn't there? maybe this is not just p-o-r-n could it be a value? >> thank you. >> it could be a value but the problem is, the government doesn't have your back you might have the absolute best trade, you might look at this thing and say it's the greatest value ever, and you might be right on that trade, but you can't do anything with it. you're long the stock and it goes poof because the government doesn't want you to have any profit in that that's the problem these things have at some point, i guess it gets washed out you could maybe trade it tim has thought of trading the adrs but to me, if all you're trying to do is play the growth in

china, then you're probably better off playing it through commodities, maybe playing it through brazil because we know that china is cutting rates. we know they're going to have a credit impulse they've already told you that. but it's really hard in fact, to me, china equities are a no-touch you have to play them tangentally. we're just getting started here on "fast money. here's what's coming up next. >> is there trouble brewing beneath the surface? brian kelly breaks down what's really going on. plus, chips and a movie? nvidia surges and amc goes digging for gold grab your popcorn, the traders hit these moves next you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market set in time square we're back right after this. e'rs of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations,

like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq [sfx: street ambience] ♪ ["fly me to the moon"] ♪ ♪ ♪

imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon? in other words... etoro.the power of social investing.

welcome back to "fast money. commodities have been red hot over the last month. check out some of the massive moves higher in the last four weeks. that's not necessarily good news for commodity trading houses brian kelly is watching a couple of charts that suggest there might be a big blowup in this space. we've been talking about the volatility and how -- for the most part, volatility causes people to be offsides on things. >> yeah. but you would think, if you're a commodity trading house in a raging bull market for commodities, you should be killing it, right? this should be the best environment for you. when you look at what's going on under the surface, it makes you go, hmm. i have three charts. the first one, there are three big commodity trading houses, glencore the first one, the first chart i have is the credit default swaps

on glencore. they have been spiking if things were great internally, there's no reason why you would want insurance on their bots they have dropped down to 75 cents on the dollar since the invasion of ukraine has started and traffic europe, same thing down in the 70s as well. these are all signs that the bond market is concerned about their balance sheet. let's break it down. what am i talking about here what these three commodity houses do, they buy commodities and ship it around the world sometimes they'll hedge via futures, but let's take a look at -- if they buy a big oil taker. if you buy a vlcc, that's a hundred million dollars. you don't want to have a hundred million dollars just laying out. you now take that crude and that boat that you bought and you use it as collateral to fund your business now sanctions come in.

that hundred million dollars, you can't sell that anywhere your collateral has taken a massive haircut. this reminds me of what happened in 2008 with mortgages they're using mortgages as collateral all of a sudden there were defaults and the collateral dropped and you had this liquidity crisis and this problem. when i look at what's going on here, and you see something like what happened in the nickel trade, right, you see that, all of a sudden the lme says, we're going to cancel trades that's another sign that there's something underneath the surface here that is just not right. my guess is, there's a liquidity problem there, all this collateral has been cut. maybe by 30% maybe by a half. i don't know and now all of these commodity houses are scrambling to raise capitol so that they can actually meet all these kind of margin calls and they can meet their liquidity crisis that is what i think is going

on it hasn't manifested itself from the rest of the market but i think it's something you really need to keep an eye on here because it's one of those things that you can just like that turn into a big crisis. >> and i guess it's the part about scrambling for capital in terms of transmission mechanism, right, to the other parts of the market if they go into the commercial paper market to try to make their funding needs, we should be able to see it through that >> you would think i mean the lme is older than i am, which is hard to believe think about it, they stopped trading -- the first time i think that's ever happened we talk about two, three, standard events, nickel was at 30 nobody has ever seen anything like it. it's interesting i think bk is onto something i'll tell you something, though, it just goes to show you how valuable a company like cme is

who continues just to sort of roll right along through these very difficult, volatile times >> bk, you probably saw a story about a 2 or $3 billion investment -- i don't know what instrument it would be, that blackstone was thinking of making in traffic. does that solve the problem? are we looking at a long-term capital kind of healing of the market >> right so that is the ultimate solution, right? a lot of people thought when blackstone did that that they were just -- that traffic was going to lever up on their commodities positions. i think it was to fill a hole. the unknown is how big is the hole in every place else the solution, as you mentioned, you print enough dollars and give it to the commodity houses and everything is fine but i think you need to be aware, the bond market is telling you with glencore and the bonds, they're telling you that there's still something not

right under the surface. >> does this raise red flags for you? >> well, brian is right. we've talked about also -- i think it's more the hedge funds on the other side. and i think the blackstone dynamic, we talk about when the fed is providing dollar swap lines at times and this is what i think -- they will be doing more of. and i think this is ultimately where the trading houses are going to need. because they have folks who can't make payments and ultimately i think that's their biggest issue. i look at glencore's move. it's up 85% in less than a year and it's pulled back aggressively in the last few days along with underlying commodities. but it's a company that generates massive free cash flow it's roughly 45% free cash flow yield. and i think commodity prices are going to continue to go higher this is a pullback to buy. i think this is an interesting place to buy oil but i get it

this is a smart discussion that we're having because there's no question when you create this kind of disruption, even folks who seemingly should be in a good place, i would almost think you're selling that cds to cover the other side of being long in the company. >> all right coming up, amc goes for gold the theater chain making an unusual buy. what's mind this move? we're digging into that one next "fast money" is back in two. >> announcer: catch us any time, anywhere, follow today on your favorite podcasting app. we're back right after this. some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment.

so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you. pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire make fitness routine with pure protein high protein. low sugar. taste great.

high protein, low sugar.. so good high protein, low sugar, mmm birthday cake and for a cheesy crunch, try pure protein snacks.

welcome back to "fast money. nvidia changing course today the chip maker ending the day up nearly 8%, ending a three-day slide. the stock is down over 21% guy, you flagged this one. >> i believe that february 16th was a wednesday, i mentioned that because we were on hiatus for the olympics, right sly so. but nvidia reported a great fourth quarter and guided revenue higher to the top end of the range for the first quarter.

it was really a strong quarter, strong guide the stock had sold off from the november highs in a meaningful way. guess what stock was not able to rally. good news, bad stock action. and we've seen it ever since today closed higher. we haven't seen price action like that in a while i think that that all goes well for nvidia going forward. major plot twist for amc and a headline no one expected to wake up to this morning. the chain paying $28 million in cash for a 22% stake in a small nevada-based gold miner, hycroft mining for a company that was struggling to stay alive not that long ago, is this the best use of cash right now? not just struggling. loads of debt, very, very high interest rates, invests in a recently de-spaced company that is trading well below it's spac

price, karen and the plot thickens when you take a look at who the top holders of this stock are, who's involved here. >> yeah, the whole thing is crazy. if you remember mudrick, he owns 40% of this company. he had -- it was one time a great trade with amc where they bought a convert and they were allowed to immediately exercise the convert, sell the stock. they made a bunch of money and went short and lost that money i don't know where they ended up on amc this is astounding to me, though, that they would use the -- i understand they have a cash pile. they also have a giant pile of debt and some of this debt is trading -- there's a -- i think it's 25 or 26 is the maturity. 10% coupon, yielding almost 15%. i would think maybe they would want to buy that back before they do this it's so crazy to me. the other thing, if you think they're going to -- you get a quick -- they were probably

expecting a quick pop which is stock really dr-- it did at the open a little bit. by the end of the day, i didn't. i don't think they were going to do that for a flip they couldn't even keep the profit i think they're in it for the construction and the long haul i find it so -- i don't know what to do with it it's crazy that they would think this is what -- just imagine what that board meeting was like here's what i think we should do and they're all, yes, that's good, let's do it. i don't understand. >> karen and i probably spent, i don't know, 20 minutes on the phone just marveling over this deal, wondering why you would do it let's just play devil's advocate here let's say amc wanted to diversify its portfolio, some sort of economic hedge here and have a golden portfolio. why would you buy a miner that traded, what was it, 30 cents a month ago? why not go futures or buy a couple bars of gold and stick in the boardroom, tim

there's so many questions here >> it sounds like the company has been taken over by meme stock traders who -- exactly what they would do this is a clown show and every time they have one of these announcements, folks, i'm talking to the investors that chase these things, please, the stock ends up lower within two weeks, significantly lower in other words, these have been whipsaw events every bitcoin announcement, everything that talks about crypto, it's -- this is another one. and, of course, it's gold. gold which is rallied. gold which is hot. and at a time -- i don't know also where a $30 million invest when you look at at least relative to market cap too, this doesn't move the needle. they have no edge. this is disappointing to me and these headlines are troubling. >> they spent 20-something million dollars and they got almost 7% pop on the stock, guy. that's not bad for a day's work. >> for now >> if they wanted to diversify their core business, they should have bought tim's dvd

collection that will give them some diversification. i know "top gun" is first and foremost if they want to get into the gold business, buy gold bars i don't know what they call it when people drift away from the style. i think they call it something you might be able to help me -- style drift. yeah, i mean, to put this onto the category of exactly that >> although, palantir is doing spacs too, buying spacs. coming up, the s&p snaps a three-day losing streak. up next, we'll meet a new face who has a hair company -- hair care company for the fellows on her shopping list. cnbc is launching a special series tonight called women and wealth go to the cnbc twitter account at 8:00 p.m. to listen "fast money" is back in two.

the mountains, or the sea shore. into the city, or far from it. you and all your friends, or just you and the open sky. the experiences we never forget come from the choices we make. including this one. the wagoneer. or the grand wagoneer. grand adventures. the choice is yours.

(vo) small businesses are joining the big switch. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ultimate business plan for the lowest price ever. plus choose from the latest 5g smartphones. get more 5g bars in more places- switch to t-mobile for business today. you can't buy love. happiness. or confidence. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. ♪ ♪ blackrock silver is bringing new life to a

historic silver district, the second largest in the silver state of nevada. with multiple recent high grade discoveries, blackrock is well underway on the largest silver exploration program in america. blackrock silver. welcome back to "fast money. markets taking a strong rebound today. with all of the uncertainty hanging over investors, how should you investigate the

moves? let's bring in portfolioanalystw face to the cnbc family. julie, one thing that you're looking at is fuentals over forecasts. it makes a lot of sense. what's the backdrop that you're seeing right now >> so i think when we look at the global economy, there are just so many uncertainties that pop up every single day. and they're things that we couldn't have predicted far beyond that. i think we have all gotten very attached to our fancy excel models and dot plots and forecasts. frankly, i think you can throw them out the window. it's not possible to predict where things are going why not instead focus on being a business analyst and finding really strong proven business models because you can go back and see, how has this company performed in a financial crisis? how has this company performed in an oil crisis and when you do that, then you have a lot more certainty that they're going to be able to weather that. >> and we've seen sort of a comeuppance for a lot of the

companies, and i'm thinking the fintech space, that have not operated in any of those environments we're seeing it reflect in the stocks right now i want to get to your picks here fair isaac is the first one. what do you like about it? >> i think what's nice about this business, it's very durable. it does well in challenging economy. but it also has leverage to an improving economy as well. if the economy is stronger than we expect, there are going to be more people pulling scores i like that there is a certain floor to that business it has a certain enterprise focus and exposure as well so it has earn stability and that's what i'm trying to focus on here. that's what i like about fair isaac. and a company like jack henry. i would look at that business as one that is exposed to financials, right, they provide software for small and mid cap banks. if you look at that business through the financial crisis, it's like i didn't happen. that's the type of business that i think is worth owning when you have this level of uncertainty >> it sounds like you're really

going for the more domestic plays, ones that are not as exposed to international headwinds. >> i think there's a lot to be said for small being beautiful especially when we're talking about software names they're attacking that market. there tends to be less competition. we look for ones that high barriers to entry. generally speaking, i like software businesses that have a lot of reoccurring revenue that allows them to plan ahead of time for their costs and then their earnings have less variability. >> julie, great to speak with you. thank you for your time. appreciate it. >> thank you. would you go small, guy? if you think inflation -- we know inflation is here in general, small caps don't have as much of an ability to pass along price increases and deal with inflationary pressures as some of the larger cap stocks >> listen, i don't know isaac,

jack or henry. i'll say this about jack henry, they have 25% operating margins. very good. 12, 13% eps growth it trades around 32 times next year's numbers maybe for a company like that, it's justified i'm never one to go small, but in this case, i will go small. >> it's not that small, right. 12 or $13 billion. i agree. i was thinking, at 30 times, it's expensive if i look at the pe has been a lot higher than that so it's not so expensive to itself it may be relative to the market but that one is interesting to me. >> all right coming up, strong foundation option traders are betting this is only the beginning. don't go anywhere. back in two.

(vo) small businesses are joining the big switch. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ultimate business plan for the lowest price ever. plus choose from the latest 5g smartphones. get more 5g bars in more places- switch to t-mobile for business today. a financial advisor that understands me and my goals as well as the markets? now you're talking. no wonder clients rate ameriprise 4.9 out of 5 for overall satisfaction. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. ♪ get a head start in investing with the new schwab starter kit™. new investors can open an account and get $50 to split across the top five stocks in the s&p 500®.

you can also unlock short videos, step-by-step guides, and other easy-to-use tools designed for people just getting started. plus, investment professionals are on standby 24/7 if you ever have a question. it's the smarter way to start investing. ♪

as a small business owner, it's the smarter way to start investing. your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving with comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. so boost your bottom line by switching today. get the new samsung galaxy s22 series on comcast business mobile and for a limited time save up to $750 on a new samsung device with eligible trade-in. welcome back a sneak peek at the cramer camera jim is talking with the ceo of crowd strike top of the hour on "mad money. and you can have cramer delivered to your inbox. sign up now at

cnbc.com/jointheclub check out kb home. the stock is down nearly 18% so far this year. at least one whale is betting that today's gains are a sign of better things to come. let's talk about the action. hey, mike. >> they traded two times its average daily call volume. the most active options were the march 36 calls trading for $1.14 apiece the stock could be at least 3% higher by the end of the week. other home builders seeing unusual volume we saw d.r. horton seeing unusual call volume. >> one would think, brian kelly, that rising rates aren't good for homebuilding stocks and maybe in some respects -- some people say that rising rates gets people off the sidelines and more active in the market. i don't know how much more active you can be in this

market >> yeah, and you have seen a little bit of that, right, that people are trying to get -- buy their house as fast as possible. a lot of people want a dog house for whatever that was in the background there in the general, in general, i think that the home builders are challenged over the next 6 to 12 months rising rates, rising costs look at lumber prices, copper prices it's going to be tough to be a home builder in the next year or two. >> for the record, that was guy's dog. tim, what do you say >> i wonder if guy's dog is a jack henry russell terrier you have a case here where home builders don't really bottom until we start to see the end of a fed cycle here i'm going to say this over and over again we're at peak credit spreads and we're at peak household balance sheet. things only get worse from here. housing affordability gets more difficult in a higher rate environment. i don't see home builders

turning around they have decent order books, very good balance sheets they've had a good run although, of late, obviously priced in all of these things and they still will. >> all right thank you, mike. tune into the full show, friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. up next, we have your final trades when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim® even better, >> announcer: options action is sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim® web. because platforms this innovative aren't just made for traders -they're made by them. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade

i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs)

anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league!

it is time for the final trade. let's go around the horn tim seymour. >> hard for me to see commodities pulling back substantially from here and the pullback of 10%, steel prices are going higher, diversified metals going higher. >> brian kelly >> metals are where i'm at too free port-mac. get that shiny metal that amc likes, gold. >> a 15 to 20% rally in alibaba from these levels. >> karen >> tjx, i think that once we see

omicron reopen, which will be mostly in this next quarter that they announce, we'll start to see some good earnings here. tjx. thank you for watching "fast money. we'll see you tomorrow don't awhe,gonyer my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" start news hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate and teach you these days so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me at #madtweets how do we explain today's tremendous rebound withhe