it is 5:00 a.m. in washington top five at 5:00 one down and six to go some think the fed not acting fast enough. strong words from president biden for vladimir putin hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to ukraine. and extending games in beijing. chinese stocks up after historic rebound that saw individual names rise by more than 40% in one day. why? call it the big bank backlash.

later on, why are gas prices still sky high as oil starts to fall we'll show you with some maybe good news ahead. it is your morning rbi and it's ahead on thursday, march 17th. this is "worldwide exchange. good morning, good afternoon or good evening. welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan good to be back with you happy st. patrick's day. let's see if the markets have a little luck of the irish today which may be a thing for stocks. ryan detrick will be along shortly. there is no green on the screen necessarily. fair value a little bit.

we are down fractionally after a late rally that saw the dow pop more than 600 points for a 1.5% gain a big day and big week 24 members of the s&p have represrise 10% since monday six are up 15% a short move with yesterday's rally, indexes are all up for the week and also on pace for the best week of the year huh. this as the fed hikes interest rates for the first time in more than three years and signals it will do the same at each of the next six meetings for now. on the heels of the hike, ten-year yield is 2.15%. can oil continue the recent

slide? not real now oil is higher. well down from the intraday high of $125 hit during the hours on march 8th. in europe, brent crude above $100 stocks in asia are up after the single best day in parts of china since 2008 hong kong closing higher buying action coming in overseas names you know the ones familiar here tencent, alibaba, jd.com and more surging for the second day after we said the single best day ever on tuesday many names with gains through today or yesterday in asia a huge two-day rally in china. let's get a check on the action in europe and check on metals in london

the london metals exchange, lme, resuming the trade of nickel after trying to restart it and failed yesterday a big story because nickel is are important in many things rosanna lockwood is in the london newsroom with trading today. rosanna. >> good morning, brian it has gotten under way after the false start on wednesday 8% of either side on wednesday it hit the lower limit of 8% negative you might rememberthe reason this contract was suspended from the lme because it shot through $100,000 a ton based on the concerns from the ukraine and russia ituation. russia exporting 10% of the world's nickel made to use ev

batteries. and over the last week, in the way it handled the metals contract hitting low areer band. brian, inheriting a strong lead from asia. the cac in paris and stoxx 600 up around .50% ftse 100 in london up you .25% we are watching that closely we have christine le garde speaking in frankfort today. one to watch >> rosanna lockwood in london. rosanna, before i let you go, nickel i know it is weird we're talking

about nickel why? we are talking about the metal much of it coming from russia. hugely important for steelmaking and important for batteries for electric cars. the nickel story and with the chinese trader that may have an $8 billion margin call on nickel nickel is a bigger deal. it is not something we talk about very much. it matters to a lot of things, does it not? >> it really matters, brian. i think it is such a huge component part in ev batteries it is drawing light to the area of markets which doesn't get much spotlight i want to draw attention to what is happening in the energy space at the moment with the spike of the russia price a lot of talk in london that the liquidity calls we saw amid the volatility on the metals exchange could be seen in the energy space as well i had the european traders

association speaking about intolerable cash liquidity pressure amid the volatility with the whole ssale prices. this could materialize in the next four-to-six weeks the way you look at the nickel market which is small when considered the energy market is huge amount bigger than that >> it is ois lme. we never focused on nickel before rosanna lockwood, thank you very much i appreciate it. to ukraine and the fighting now well into its 22nd day western security officials saying the russian offensive has largely stalled on all fronts with the majority of ukrainian territory, including all major cities, still in ukrainian hands. this after the biden administration approved another $800 million in ukrainian aid on

the heels of the plea from the ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy to the congress yesterday. for america's unwilling to i implement no-fly zone, there is more to help we send it to nbc's jay gray on the ukraine and poland border. jay, a constant stream of families, mostly women and children, looking to stream into poland >> reporter: no question about that we're about 30 miles from the border crossing. we continue to see families moving into poland and trying to escape the violence. this is the kind of help they are getting. we are in what is an empty warehouse which is now the center for the world central kitchen. it is unbelievable to see what they have done here in just a matter of weeks as they continue

to prepare hot meals for those walking two and three days to get to the border. day break brings another attack on kyiv. crumbling buildings as russian air strikes continue around the clock. in the battered city of mariupol, the shelling continues even as they unload the wounded. doctors at this hospital, one of the land standing in the region, treat the victims of war while villages across ukraine honor their fallen heroes. >> these guys are angels for us. they died protecting us and they will protect us in heaven. >> reporter: as so many go through the hell of trying to escape low level more than 3 million have rushed from the fighting. mothers clutching babies across the border

safe, but uncertain of what comes next. >> whatever is happening here will happen for a long time and people will need a lot of things and a lot of supplies and clothing and everything. >> reporter: because they left most everything behind what you don't think of initially is a hot meal. they have the ability here, believe it or not, brian, to make as many as 200,000 meals a day. >> wow doing amazing work there and nearly impossible circumstances. heartwarming tale in a difficult circumstance jay gray on the border of poland and ukraine. be well, be safe and thank everybody behind you for us here jay, thank you back to your money stocks having their best week of the year as the federal reserve raises interest rates by .25%.

the federal reserve signaling the possibility of six more rate hikes this year and another three next year. fed chair jay powell hinting at the news conference that the central bank could reduce the $9 trillion balance sheet as soon as may fed members expect numbers to remain elevated all year long bumping up the estimate to 4.1%. powell says the fed is tempted in the risk of a further rise. >> we want to achieve surprise stability with a strong lab or market you we need to focus on price stability particularly because the labor market is so strong and the economy is so strong we feel like the economy can handle tighter monetary policy

>> so what is the historical set up for stocks and rate hike environment? is there one for this environment? let's get perspective with ryan detrick with lpl financial ryan, thanks for joining us. rate hikes are seen as bad because we have been in a low-to-no rate interest rate environment for going on years and years. that's not true. there have been many times in history where stocks have gone up even as interest rates have gone up, i assume, because we have a fairly strong economy is that how you see the stock market set up right now? >> sully, thanks thank for having me. good morning yes, we had the first rate hike. of course, it causes worry and concern with people. you go back in history, brian,

it is not that worrisome go back six siecycles, a couple de decades. stocks up every single time. not a ton, but higher. there were 17 rate hikes in 2004, 2005 and 2006. s&p was up every year. yes, this is different the headlines are scary. inflation. all of that stuff is in there. i agree with what you played from chairman powell the economy is strong. history tells us when you have a rate hike, you are mid cycle brian, we found after that first rate hike that the s&p has the ultimate peak three and a half years later. three more years of a bull market it's possible. >> ryan, i have to correct you it is not early. you have to be like me i stay up. i end the day with the show. then i say good evening. if i say good evening, you know

what happened. ryan, i love you, man. let's go into a couple of things historical set up looks good there are things out there which are huge variables in all of those cycles you talked about, we never have been on the edge of a major war, but obviously with war happening somewhere on this scale in the country or globe, and also a federal reserve sitting on $9 trillion of assets that it will somehow try to sell off over the next couple years. >> you are right geopolitical events, we look back 70 years and found the s&p pulls back 5% and two years later, you make up the losses. cuban missile crisis 6% decline a month later, we gained back the losses markets have a funny way of

looking forward. this all started three weeks ago. stocks higher since then we had the volatility. it is no easy answer that is what history tells us and the balance sheet. that is another way the fed can come back. we will see what happens in may and how aggressive the feed is between that and six interest rates, our best case is three or four they are coming this year. those are ways to combat the inn explanation which we have to do. >> listen, as a sullivan, obviously st. patrick's day means corned beef and guinness this evening it may mean green for the stock market we referenced your stat. it is just a day we are not chasing snakes off. historically, you found maybe some good cheer in the stock market today >> that's right. don't blindly invest in one day.

the first nine months of the year the best afteverage return goin back to 1950 st. patrick's day. up 0.3%. that is one of the best five days of the year, st. patrick's day. it is totally random or people have fun and push the buy button >> again, don't invest specifically on that it is an odd historical anomaly. random but o'interesting we all have a need to good cheer. ryan, i appreciate that. we are just getting started. when we come back, if you are like most people or many, you may have shared your netflix password with a friend or family member netflix doesn't like that. wait until you hear what they plan to do to maybe stop that

but could be good news because they make money in the process bertha coombs is here with that. and later on why relief could come at the gas pump sooner rather than later. good news in the rbi with the connection of oil and gas prices and maybe not what d.c. wants you to hear. we're back after this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

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good morning welcome back stock futures flat to lower as oil looks like it will stop the five-day slide it is higher right now more coming up right now, other key business headlines happening now including the possible break for all you netflix password sharing scofflaws out there. bertha coombs is here and wearing green, unlike me, which i'm wearing teal it was o'dark 30 when i reached into the closet. shame on me. i don't know i'm in trouble with my irish anc ancestors. bertha, thank you. let's turn to the headlines. after years of turning a blind eye to password sharing, netflix is testing a program to change that and charge users who share credentials with people outside of their households. a test will begin in the coming

weeks in smaller markets like chile and compansta rica and pe. citi is under fire from republican officials and lawmakers in texas over its policy on abortions. the bank says it will cover travel and costs for people with the procedure. the new policy is appalling, but not surprising considering its past adoption of far left causes and spotify is drawing up plans to add block chain technology and nfts to the streaming service. according to two job posts, spotify is looking for people to work on web three products

the tech buzz more all things block chain. the news follows a similar push from instagram and reddit. i'm not sure the connection between nfts which are visual and audio medium you know, that's way above my pay grade. >> that is an example of digital ownership which cannot be replicated or copied when i go out, i occasionally get noticed. the biggest question i get is not on the fed or oil, but nfts. i have to tell people i'm not an expert it's complicated. >> what is heck is an nft? >> it's a nonfungible token.

rare moment of honesty the real reason gas prices are staying up as oil prices come down and it probably has more to do with mom and pop than big oil. we'll explain. and speaking of no oil, why tesla is scrapping a debt sale we're back after this. (vo) this is a place for ambition. a forge of progress. a unicorn in training. a corner to build a legacy.

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time for the big money movers. three key stock stories of the day. pager duty the coe says the strong performance was largely due to high retention rate for products stock number two williams-sonoma. announcing a dividend hike. revenue up 18% the ceo saying the quarter showed resilience. stock three is tesla apparently delaying a $1 billion b bond offering. the automaker placed a significant portion of the bonds with fund managers before the sale halted. tesla raising the prices of

model y in china by $2,000 tesla shares are slightly lower right now. straight ahead on "worldwide exch exchange." more on the fed and why jay powell may not be acting aggressively enough. we'll beig bk. rhtac

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powell pulls the trigger and says the market is receady for more. and more military aid to ukraine as the conflict enters the 22nd day and patience is a virtue at the gas pump. it is thursday, march 17th this is "worldwide exchange. welcome or welcome back. i'm brian sullivan thank you for waking up with us. some of you we got to meet in florida the last couple days like david and family. appreciative for everybody getting up thank you. we are about halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour stock futures with not a lot of luck of the irish. the markets continue to power

through from the rally we are seeing stock futures, i'll say they're down, but they're off less than .1%. we had a nice start to the week. so far it has been the best week of the year. 24 members of the s&p 500 up 10% this week. six of those up 15%. certainly a little short covering never mind that. we are seeing stocks overall with a big week. buyers coming in after the fed pulled the trigger on its first interest rate hike in three years. you might have heard something about that yesterday finally start to fight inflation and soon may start to wind down the record high balance sheet. can they pull it off without sending us into recession? we'll talk about it and get a check on oil it is slightly higher right now. it has been sliding for the last week brent crude up $100 a barrel

we will look at the relationship with oil prices and gas prices in the meantime, we will get more on the markets in a moment. to a serious topic which is ukraine and the fighting the biden administration approving another $800 million in ukraine aid that came after the plea from president volodymyr zelenskyy to members of congress yesterday saying if the u.s. is unwilling to implement a no-fly zone, there is more to be done to help this as stalks with russia and ukraine continue today let's go to molly hunter in lviv as russia continues to assault and kill people across the nation mostly from air strikes molly. >> reporter: from mostly air strikes and targeted at

civilians. the headline and heartbreaking news is a drama theater in the heart of mariupol. on each side of the drama theater, brian, they written children in white writing in th russian language that was bombed overnight. our understanding is the 1,200 people were seeking refugee. you do not have a death toll this continues the onslaught on mariupol mariupol, the city on the black sea is 30,000 people who managed to escape. these are low numbers. according to president zelenskyy, 6,000 people were able to get out in private vehicles 2,000 of the people were children, brian. >> just heart wrenching video

and photos we are seeing from teams like yours and others. some of whom have been injured or killed. we keep hearing, molly, that russia is ramping up the air bombardment of kyiv. they are pounding the bigger cities now >> reporter: that is right these are cities they have tried to surround and besieged mariupol and kharkiv their argument is the russian troops have stalled out. they can't move or quickly or efficiently as they hoped. this is something we have talked about. in absence of the ground troops, they are launching and stepping up air strikes on the capital. that means they are hitting apartment buildings and metro stations and drama theater in mariupol they are hitting tv towers and

civilian targets there is no military our chief foreign correspondent richard engel has seen that only civilians live there brian. >> molly, you wonder if the goal was to take over the country, what are they doing? destroying it or the hearts and minds of the people. this is a campaign of destruction. not of coming in and winning the hearts they are laying waste to much of the country. >> reporter: they are razing these cities we saw an interview from the deputy mayor of mariupol he estimates 80% to 90% of his city bombed and destroyed. this is the russian playbook this is what they did to aleppo. you see the drone footage from mariupol it is flattened. you wonder if they want to set

in for occupation or if that was the plan to come in and take over and put their officials in. nothing will be there waiting for them >> and no way the people will wait for them with open arms bec because you are killing their women and children and husbands. out of sheer wage. molly hunter thank you. turning to your money. we watch the impact from the rate hike decision and likely to be six normore hikes this year we are watching moves in chinese tech stocks which are continuing to soar. alibaba and jd.com and baidu up more overnight raising questions to whether chinese government backstops are

enough to get u.s. investors ready to buy and watching moves in commodities you can't talk about inflation without platinum oil is higher this morning joining us to talk about it all is larry mcdonald. larry, there are a million things to ask you. we have been hearing from washington that inflation is putin's fault. market watchers know that is not entirely the whole case. if it is putin's war, what are rate hikes going to do to slow down inflation >> exactly essentially what is happening in the last year, brian is inflation is already hiking rates for the fed. our work shows the inflation is already inflicted 200 basis

points of rate hikes the power of the rate hikes, that is happening already. neil ferguson and i sat down a year ago and he reminded me of the fact one thing in the history of economics in the world that is more inflationary than a pandemic is a war. the highly unusual period with a war and pandemic back-to-back. you need to change your asset portfolio back to 1970s or 1980s model. not 2020 model. >> it is a shame that we're obsessed with blame in america by the way, both parties are guilty you have to blame the other guy. continue to divide there are things happening that are out of anybody's control to be fair to everybody out there. to your point, the historical

rea reality. that said, given the back drop and rates are and likely going, what do we buy and what do we sell >> the reason for that thinking is, you know, the establishment at the ecb and fed have been in denial of the first stage of inflation. in many respects, it is bold face lying or deception or being obtuse and ignored the problem we now have the second stage of the problem. look at this in 1981, the industrials materials and energy, those groups made up 40% of the s&p. 4 40%. by the end of last year, that was down to 14%. materials, for example, made up in the s&p in 1981, 10% to 11%

last year it was down to 3%. you are talking about possibly $3 trillion that over the next four years will migrate from financial assets from growth and bonds to hard assets the silver minuers here uranium. we have a basket of hard assets. we run about 650 institutional investors and every day, we see more and more of that language in the conversation. >> you wonder where it will go larry, could we have a -- i think putin's insane war will cause more inflation inflation was hot before he went into ukraine could we see a 10% cpi print in the next couple months >> i don't think there is any question that if you look at

what has happened with the major commodities over the last 45 days, that is yet to show up in inflation. that's the next chapter of the inflation story. you have stocks like apple apple and tesla. $3.4 trillion in two stocks. those types of companies are in big, big trouble what is fascinating about this last drawdown. a lot of drama and people say there is a lot of bear sentiment. these stocks did not come anywhere close, those two, nowhere close to the 2018 capitulation nowhere close in 2020 in march apple was raitrading 800 millio shares a day we have yet to see the piercing of the hard asset bubble -- we say financial asset bubble move

to hard assets >> yes hard assets in a time of inflation. a lot of people like them. you do, as well, larry it will be interesting larry mcdonald thank you. have a great day see you soon take care. coming up, speaking of, we will talk about jay powell's policy playbook, but not on inflation. what does it mean for the hundreds of billions or trillions that technology firms are sitting on in cash will it eat that value for inv investors? we'll talk about thane t xt ♪ i see trees of green ♪

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welcome back let's turn to technology no companies are sitting on more cash than tech companies apple and google and more. what does the rising interest rates environment mean more the giant piles of cash for investors? steve kovach is here with more steve, welcome to "worldwide exchange." steve, what is the worst-case scenario with the inflation eating dollars for the big tech cash pile? >> if you are the larry summers of the world and heading into recession, it will look like the 2001 dot-com bust all over

again. the tech companies at the top still. high flying names and growth names we have been following throughout the pandemic and the rise of the stock market over the last decade, those could risk losing valuation to the point where they look like really tasty acquisition for the big cash piles that apple and google and other companies have amassed. dan niles sees this as another 2001 dot-com bust in the making. >> dan niles has been pessimistic, but right in the past are others more optimistic >> let's go to the other dan dan ives from wedbush. he sees stocks as oversold nothing but upside the fed gave us our medicine we took it and everything else is priced in now it is time to buy.

especially cybersecurity names after the deal with google scoop up last week those will be hot names. also the cloud companies cloud is growing like a weed ibm and oracle and so on again, all upside. the opposite of what niles said, that is what ives is saying. >> so dan v. dan what does it mean for stocks investors? >> the cash piles don't really matter as much for what the growth of the stocks, especially on the big tech. what people are looking for is margins and seeing the top line growth we come to expect from apple and google and amazon of the world. that is what the stocks are measured on throughout the year as the hikes continue. >> steve kovach. sitting on trillions of dollars

when you add it up even in these days, that's a lot of money steve, stthanks on deck, your morning rbi and why unlucky mom and pop may be the real reason gas prices aren't coming down as fast as oil. the story d.c. probably doesn't want you to hear. and keith lerner with his idea to make you feel better about stocks stick around we could bring it right to your door. with 1 to 2 day delivery from your local cvs. or same day if you need it sooner. but aren't you glad you can also just swing by to pick it up, and get your questions answered? because peace of mind is something you just can't get in a cardboard box. that's how healthier happens together with cvs. [sfx: street ambience] ♪ ["fly me to the moon"] ♪

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let's show you why gas prices, while high, we know, are not in some alternative un uni universe oil started the year $76 a barrel now $97 it was higher on march 8th that did not last. gas futures, what we show you is the named rbob started 2022 at $2.22 a gallon weird, but cool. now $3.07 a gallon the average price of the gallon of gas across america, what you pay, started at $3.29. it now sits at $4.28 for a gain of 30% you can see they are all aligned in the moves and that's pretty much the case. the three-year chart it is the same showing oil

versus the average price for a gallon of gas. you can see as oil goes up, the orange line, gas moves a little later. as oil falls gas followed it up here is the most important thing to take from all this. unlike the oil prices that we show you on our screens every day, gas is a physical thing oil prices are just futures on a trader's screen. a piece of paper actual gasoline is bought by gas stations and distributors by the tens of hundreds of gallons. once they buy it, they are stuck until the next load. the owner who bought gas at $4.50 a gallon last week timed it terribly. now future prices are below

that are you going to sell that gas below cost no not if you can help it it happens all the time. the station owner across the street, she timed her purchase better she can make a profit at a lower cost than you. now you have two bad options number one, keep gas prices high and have zero customers or sell the gas at a loss just to bring in traffic and hope make money on coffee and snacks it is one big reason gas prices always fall slower than they rise because it is a huge fixed cost for about a week and stations make little money selling gasoline, they will try to keep prices elevated as long as they can because they are making up for losses they already have taken it is not greed. it is trying to survive. if you don't believe me, two things don't listen to me go ask a station owner

ask your question when oil went negative in april of 2020, did gas price goes negative? did you get paid to fill up? i don't think so same concept in reverse it is not hard random, but gas prices, as long as oil is flat to down, they will come down give it a few days for the tanks to drain. back to the markets and what is a contender on the rbi. keith lerner is great with it. annual rate of 9% during the 12 fed rate hike cycles going back to the 1950s when gas was a nickel showed positive returns in 11 of those times. keith lerner at truist the man who lifted our rbi keith, great to have you on.

>> before us, brian, great to be with you happy st. paddy's day. first time i put on my tie in a few months as far as the markets and fed hikes, historically the first rate hike does not kill the bull market it tends to inject volatility in the markets. to the point earlier, this happens when the economy is growing. i will say this. differences with the rate hike and where we are with fed policy that we have to be aware of as far as the balance sheet as you look at what is interesting and one more rbi, brian. the first rate hike, the unemployment rate has been 6% and inflation at 2.5% when the fed raises rates this time the unemployment rate is lower and below 3% and

inflation below 7% the fed has to move. that is why they focused on that yesterday in light of the geopolitical tensions that we have >> that is fascinating of course, putin's war adds a new variable and risk and volatility to the references, keith. it is a big issue with history this happened and this happened. we have a $9 trillion fed balance sheet and war started by a mad man in lower europe. >> that is the starting point. warren buffett said if all you need is history, then the world would be rich with librarians. listen, i think right now, from our perspective, the range is wide especially with what is happening with the commodities markets in general and overseas. we think the under lining trend is positive. we expect more moderate gains in

the volatility will stay it will happen outside the invasion the market peaked around the fed minutes in january. >> truly remarkable, keith give us advice opportunity thursday happy st. patrick's day. we are the only ones wearing ties what do we own right now, keith? >> listen, i think from the big picture asset allocation, we are overweight equities relative to fixed income at a lower margin over the last two years when we were bulls we like the u.s. under relative basis. within the u.s., small caps trading below 14 times a lot of bad news priced in. >> always bringing the heat. no, no, sorry for the music. we should have played some irish

tune keith, we appreciate you getting up we appreciate you throwing on the green tie. always appreciate your insight keith lerner, thank you. thank you for watching "worldwide exchange. e you tomorrow "squawk" is next xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon, so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries!

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good morning fed approving the first rate hike this year stocks jumped. we'll show you what is moving. tech stocks jumping in china after regulators signalled more support for market friendly policies a live report from beijing. netflix preparing to crackdown on password sharing. testing fees for people who don't live in the same household. it is thursday, march 17th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from times square. i'm rebecca quic