election year and maybe good for fund raising from the crypto guys. >> and what the blockchain is and what it's not. eamon, thank you so much >> you bet. that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" picks things up right now. ♪ thank you very much and welcome to "power lunch. here's what we have got for you this hour. three as mario will tell us why he finds opportunities in auto, aro space and agriculture. and the fed, the war and the market including interest rates and the infection. the industry inflation forgot. it's a sector insulated from many of the pressures that ores are feeling and a major

vulnerability. we'll talk about the implications for investors. >> thank you hi, everybody. stocks at session highs with the dow up 279 points. s&p up 39. nasdaq up 139. oil prices also surging with crude back above $100 a barrel this one on some renewed supply concerns 7% jump today lifting the energy stocks some of the best in the s&p with about 7%, 8% gains marathon up 5 to 6%. tyler? >> thank you let's dive into the markets with ceo mario gabelo welcome. good to have you as always great to see you. >> you, too, tyler and kelly >> looking forward to the conversation you say that there are three as

that you have your eye on right now. thanks for the monomic device or whatever that word is. let's start with agriculture why are you focusing there right now? >> we look at the cash flow of the american farmer. beans, wheat, corn commodities plus livestock significant opportunity to use that cash flow to buy the equipment and the equipment is 100% write-off under the current rules and not wearing it because of saint patrick's day but i like john deere and welcome case new holland with about 1.3 billion shares selling at $10. how much will the farmer spend and then the fertilizers and so on and to the degree to encourage the american farm ere

to continue to produce, fence the fence that's important to fight inflation. this button -- >> i remember it. >> it's not for march madness. it is for two score eight years ago. 1974 win. win inflation now. that's got to be along with the other dynamics of invasion and so on. and interest rates are one of the dynamics that we look at that's the agricultural axis second system is aero space and defense. the amount of money put in the budget and have to do to anticipate what may happen in the future opposed to look through the rear-view mirror our clients own companies like aero jet, stock's around 38.

they are a leader in the hyper sonic dynamics imagine a line in the 1930s. similar to our minute man missiles of today. we have to replenish that and then companies doing a good job on what they do and then smaller companies where we have the comet. and then the third part was the auto sector. automotive we have 1 million cars approximately in the united states 2 million below where it normally is this time of year. we have a long runway to build inventory. the second part is used car prices up sharply which means that the loans that we have been taking out 72 months, that's easily repaid. third part is the rentals and

others that represent 25% to 30% of the car market are not there. we have a very -- outlook over the next couple of years vendor that is sell products u.s. are sbreging and then the napa hat 140 billion stocks down in atlanta, georgia they have a little hiccup in the european operation and seeing earnings surge and more importantly when inflation picks up even though real gdp will slow down the prices going up allows them to flow through with a constant gross margin. earnings have great flexibility. well managed company those are the things we think about. >> i know you like companies with pricing power i assume most of these have that

let's go back just two steps to the agricultural space and fertilizer mosaic is one. there are a lot of others of them but a lot of inputs that go into - >> phosphate and the ammonia is made a certain way but just think about this, tyler. assume we were wheat farmers in kansas planted in the fall and harvested in the spring. we assume $6 a bushel. we get $11 there are certain -- well, we have to get an incremental supply going forward and we hope -- we expect to have some of those the phosphate out of -- potash out of florida is an example of where we can take and we'll fig

yush it out and the farmer is smart and hard working and god bless the american farmer. they'll figure it out. going back to this button which is to me -- inflation at interest rates what's the present value of the current stream of earnings stocks based on a multiple of ebitda minus cap x that's the tug of war. >> are you overall bullish last time people wearing that button didn't have a great decade >> we allowed inflation to run out. kelly, it is thinking about in the morning when you brush your teeth take the tooth paste out once inflation gets out and runs uncontrolled it is like that all out to a director of the

bank coined that phrase. we are concerned so companies that have pricing power, cash flow, put incremental cap x in, classic examples broadcasters advertisers, that is the consumer products companies raise price. they have certain demand decide whether it goes digital or linear and basically the companies have very little cap x. as far as the stock market is concerned earnings are a function of -- constant market and volume how much can they raise price and if i'm up 4% with real revenues, real gdp up 9% with 7% inflation. i am a surrogate for you to earn

a rueturn to preserve the purchasing power as an investor and so that's what i see. >> sure. basically we can weather the environment but cautiously and change the companies to be exposed to you say you watch mortgages and housing here what does that mean? we have seen housing starts this morning at a 15-year high. half the population wants to see the market slow. the other owns houses and wonders what that means for them. >> no question we agree there's a shortage of housing. putting 10% down and borrowing and $20 a month. so that at the margin becomes a challenge. what do we do? manufactured housing double wide made for $100,000 and get 2400 square feet

there are alternatives and have to focus on student loans and used cars. we as a planet need renewable energy storage, transmission. we have to be practical. we have to unleash the power of those to produce energy short term and deliver it and allow oil to come in we have incomplete not incompetent but incomplete policy dynamics and focus on that the way we did with other crises in this country. >> talk to me a little bit about the automobile market because i have been in and out a couple times of the past six months and a lot of the dealers are saying we are having the best pricing

years ever the demand is there. the inventory is low do you see that sort of inversion in pricing continuing or do you see that the chip shortage is going to be solved and prices will come back down >> well, the chip problem requires that american chip manufacturers locate and diversify the sources. >> correct. >> but we are hearing too many stories about profiteering by car dealers because somebody wants that audi xyz $50,000 above msrp that has to change because i have a used car and 5 1/2, 6 years old dereplacing the battery and the brakes and through a professional mechanic. to do it for me for genuine parts and those dynamics are in

place and then the do it yourself market. i don't think there's no question that a company that's well run like auto nation taken the number of shares down to 61 million. mike jackson is retiring yes they e're going to give a bigger amount of promotion but the real challenge, tyler, is that people go to work need a car and the inner city needs personal transportation. we have to have lower priced cars i don't want the chinese to come in with a $14,000 car which is available. i want american companies to produce a balance and so that is what will happen within 18 months you can't just sell 13 million cars global basis probably this year in 80 million plus car

production and sales and probably will go up and yes we're going to put in evs and can't buy a $80,000 ev and live the bronx. so that's a work in progress we'll resolve that problem and have a great opportunity >> all right mario -- >> and car dealers. >> always great to see you thank you for your time today. >> tyler, enjoy the basketball you talk about crypto. >> yep. >> it's a shortage of product orr time there are no more baseballteam manufactured atlanta braves buy it malone will do and somewhere in the next year cone the equivalent in atlanta. >> that's another day. >> all right go, julius randall

thank you. >> agriculture, autos, aero defense and the atlanta braves. >> the picks from mario. telecom stocks outperforming the s&p. some call it a perfect defensive play duds does it have a major vulnerability? as we go to break a look at the pullback in chip stocks but the smh on track for a best week since november we're back in a moment hone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready?

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welcome back to "power lunch. we have talked a lot about inflation tan sectors it spread through but there's the wireless sector that's forgotten. the u.s. names are entirely domestic with no exposure to the eu shocks. and whether or not the economy slows many would say they're indispensable. the stocks seen some benefit from that. but they haven't seen outsized gains and the next guest said it's because they don't have the pricing power. let's bring in craig moffitt

it almost would be a perfect setup for them but the pricing power issue. >> that's right. almost perfect if not for the industry not being a very good industry and that ultimately is the problem and that's why investors have struggled is this is an industry that is very competitive, extremely low march call cost and so you have this very difficult setup where they have the things you would look for in a sector and relatively low beta but fundamentally for the stocks to really work you would have to have to see some mitigation of the pricing pressure in the industry and i don't see it so what you are likely to see is over time bubbling up cost inflation like you have in lots of industries and very little ability to push the higher costs

through to consumers. >> i don't want them to have pricing power because the verizon bill is already pretty high and to consumers it is not like netflix where it feels like they give the product away for free what more could happen at this point to give them more leverage >> it's -- you would hope that in an industry like this the way you get away from that pricing pressure that comes from this very low marginal cost base competition is a level of service differentiation. if you go way back to the 2013 era, you will before that remember people had differentiation on hand sets iphone was exclusive and the pixel and motorola was for verizon why that dimension of

competition collapsed and left with price or network quality. network quality was the domain of verizon now the networks are roughly at parody and entering a 5g phase are t-mobile with the best network and cheapest prices. >> as 5g turned into the selling point that the providers would like you believe it is i rarely able to access 5g i can't in my home doesn't show up on the thing but has it been a selling point and a differentiator >> it is a disappointment. first as you say in that it hasn't really helped the

companies to different yate. i think that will still come and probably less than you might have hoped because as you just suggested in the question there really aren't plxs to different yate with the reason than the marketing advantage that it gives does provide some cover for the player that is actually able to deliver it. >> what about kcriticisms that some companys have a version of 5g not really the 5g. we had a guest on earlier this week pointing out that american 5g compared with 5g in other countries including china is a pale imitation of the real 5g

that we should be investing in >> i don't agree with the assertion that america is behind other countries in 5g but confusion because there are all kinds of different aspects that vary operator to operator. simplest version is 5g on low frequency is no better than 4g that much i think people understand and so you need higher frequencies with bigger blocks of spectrum available. you see that now but you also need -- there are techier differences in when you deal with a true stand alone 5g or a hybrid model. i would say that as we are now e

entering a 5g mid band in the united states and that puts us pretty much on the par with anybody in 5g. they are very, very high speeds why not quite the incredible blinding speeds that some people talked about when we talked about millimeter 5g which is i think a long ways off. i think the question you asked previously is does it matter to anybody is an unanswered question. >> yeah. >> the commercial segment where you promised all kinds of things like internet of things and autonomous cars there's not been any revenue with that for carriers yet and they have to monetize the money put into spectrum and what do we do with the fact we are not ready to say it's a failure but taking longer

to develop. >> not showing the results that people -- i would love to sit down and have dinner with you to get an education on this and love to learn more we have to leave it there. thank you so much. >> always a pleasure. >> you bet, man. nickel and dives price of nickel diving this as the price nearly doubled weeks before. aboutive funds underperforming passive almost every year is that about to change? direct to consumer slump hitting a rough patch. we'll discuss all this when "power lunch" returns.

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welcome back the nickel market continues to be chaotic falling 8% in trading today. kristina partsinevelos tracking the moves on nickel for us. >> last week the nickel trading mark market on the london market broke and today chaos resumed.

unlike the new york stock exchange or the nasdaq it has no circuit breakers to halt trading. first time ever they imposed a 5% limit yesterday but a systems error allowed a small number of trades to go through that's 8% today by the 3-month nickel contract hit that level this morning an of the 145-year-old lme halted and canceled trades after prices doubled last tuesday surging to $100,000 a ton in a few how shalls the uk regulator aware of the swing that started on monday but only reacted on tuesday and retroactively canceled thousands of trades. the crisis has sparked criticism for the handling supply constraints from russia drove prices higher and the

short sellers like a chinese holding group that added to the surge. that company built up a large shore position and caught in a squeeze and struggled to post the margin until some banks stepped in to help that means in less than two weeks tradered had to deal with an unprecedented price spike, a week long suspension, billions in canceled trades and now repeated glitches. >> you have outlined it well what an absolute mess it's been. thank you let's get to rahel solomon now. >> hi. here's the news update the top diplomats of the group of 7 nations condemning russia for attacks on civians a family of five killed when a russian air strike demolished the home and the g7 said they every ready to increase sarkss

on russia. meantime in new york city police looking for thieves that made off with 400 bullet-proof vests donated for ukraine. they used three vans to steal them from a charity. and parades back in force after a two-year hiatus for coronavirus. looks like video not playing but trust me they are set to take part you both look so beautiful and festive. >> i can't take part with a green screen. >> i was ready. >> wouldn't have made a difference because the video didn't run it's okay. it's okay. thank you. ahead on "power lunch" a crude awakening. the biggest supply crisis in

decades. >> plus inflation hitting the home builders as construction is significantly lagging behind demand we have the latest when "power lunch" returns you can't buy love. happiness. or confidence. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. ♪ ♪

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90 minutes left in the trading day. welcome back we want to get you caught up on stocks which keep climbing, bonds, commodities and oil let's begin with bob pisani. a big development post fed. >> i think it is three days up. haven't done that in a long time the problem here is it is still tentative feel and choppy. energy two days down. three days down. and now balance up again we have oil back over $100 occidental with an incredible run. devon, apa, halliburton on the upside banks aren't doing very well a flattening yield curve doesn't help and the super regionals to watch. they're all trading to the

downside see how choppy it can be cathie woods' stuff stopped going down a few strings up in a row. hasn't hahned in a while is it the bottom again very tentative feel. finally, this shows you how choppy it is what's with big tech microsoft not doing anything at all. apple not doing anything see how choppy this is important thing here we were down at the bottom february 24th i think too soon to panic about tipping us into a recession. probably the way to look that the right now. again very tentative feel. >> thank you over to the bond market where yields are on the 10-year. what gives

>> seeing the short maturities with lower prices than the treasuries spikes we witnessed yesterday on the fed quarter point tightenings. 10s are not. 7s are not 30s are just barely. but that makes sense the markets had the big moment yesterday. now they're somewhat digesting and playing catch up you can see what i'm talking about. see that spike on the right side of the chart was yesterday i would certainly suspect as the day wears on we see the rates rise a buiit 2s and 20s hovering higher. almost 24 basis points and as you look at the 3-month to 10, referencing earlier. three months to 10s and the

steepest in five years at 180. term structure of interest rates. stack them up. 2-year is reflecting down the road where rates will be whereas the short dated 3 month that we anxious every week is keeping up and then if you canneonsider thw charts you can see what i'm talking about. >> thank you. oil is jumping today let's get the latest. >> above $100 and making up the lost ground after three straight down days. a potential loss of russian oil driving the market saying that starting next month 3 million barrels a day at risk. basically that oil is still changing hands right now thanks to deals prishor to the invasion

the deals stall and imports from russia should begin to slow this week which speaks to the self sanctions taking place wti up $103.44 brebt crude up at $107.15. >> big jumps thank you. that surge amid the warning about a supply crush my next guest is focusing on stocks that enhance and have free cash flow why what are the names to focus on here >> yeah. not an oil name. a natural gas name we need more if we have more energy and less carbon

it's an energy security to the rest of the world exporting lng to countries across the world and as a result of that these countries replace coal with natural gas and ends up being very positive and cheniere is largest exporter right now. >> i think they'll escape the scrutiny or oil unless the prices spike so much to affect to a great every degree what people for the bills at home is there anything right now that you feel like people could be comfortable with exposure to >> yeah. we are with a big dance in oil between the u.s. and opec. opec is waiting for the u.s. to decide on iran sanctions

what i mean is that producing at the same level prior to covid. looking forward shl, the answer we need more u.s. and canadian oil. we need more infrastructure. i'd like to see oil prices lower but infrastructure like plains all american who operate critical and social infrastructure where the production growth will come from in the u.s. and offers a significant dividend yield some growth associated with it, too. as you talked about at the start. >> another one of the infrastructure picks the theme here is enbridge. >> yeah. so the other factor is the role that canada can play in providing global energy securities and significant amount of oil and natural gas to

be exported into the u.s. and enbridge with a key infrastructure name that provides the opportunity to -- the infrastructure in canada that will be when oil is exported from canada to the u.s. is the pipeline it goes through and so an opportunity to experience significant growth. when we think we'll see significant growth from canada oil -- >> this is through existing pipelines that they have and not the keystone pipeline. >> yeah, yeah. no that was the competitor. transcanada. enbridge with existing infrastructure since 1960s and they operate it. >> thank you very much we appreciate it. the read on housing. home builders continue to

struggle will higher rates slow the market down a bit? we'll explore that when "power lunch" continues [sfx: street ambience] ♪ ["fly me to the moon"] ♪ ♪ ♪ imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon? in other words... etoro.the power of social investing.

as inflation spikes investors wonder when it will hit the home builders and home buyers hi, di. >> hey, ty rising mortgage rates don't appear to be showing up in the construction numbers single family housing starts up nearly 6% month to month in february building permits fell slightly and up over 5% from a year ago and an indicator of future construction sentiment is pretty high and this month the component of measuring sales expectations over six months dropped sharply indicating nervousness a largest home builders lennar reported strong business i spoke with the chairman stewart mill every er tuesday a

said interest rates have moved up but so are wages and rental and fixed rate mortgage on an owned home remains the best protection to inflation. if buyers buy then the stock should do better. >> there we have it. thank you. diana olick. why active funds struggle of the past decade and maybe longer than that. 'll break it down next your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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welcome back to "power lunch. s&p, dow jones out with new data and doesn't paint a pretty picture for the stock pickers. according to the firm survey on the performance of active mutual fund managers, 79% of those funds active funds underperform the benchmarks last year long every term the performance is just as bad the fund that have been around ten years and there's a lot of attrition among funds that ones around ten years 86% underperformed the benchmarks and more than 60% of funds,

bonds fund, didn't surpass the bench marks of 15-year period. craig lazaro is a manager at s&p dow jones indices and put together the numbers that tell us this depressing story if you are in actively manage fund craig, welcome as we look at growth funds, as we look specifically at growth funds, specifically at large cap funds, as i read your study, they do even worse >> that's correct. they did last year for a very specific reason and the reason is that the concentration of our growth index was such that unless you were as a growth manager significantly overweight in a very small handful of stocks, all of which we could easily name, apple, microsoft, facebook, which were large and prominent in the growth index and happened to perform well, if

you didn't do that, it was difficult to outperform a growth benchmark last year. in other years, when the performance in the growth stock sector has been more evenly spread out, stock picking has been somewhat easier but when the very largest stocks are the ones that dominate performance, it gets to be much harder, and that was definitely the case with growth managers last year. >> last year, great for growth stocks, as reported. the growth index was up 33%, but 98% of all growth fund managers failed to outperform the benchmark. they keep saying this. they keep saying that in down markets we're going to do better they keep saying in volatility, we're going to do better, but they don't why not? >> but they don't. you're exactly right theoretically, a manager who raises cash ahead of a market decline provides a source of value added, so it is certainly fair to say there's potential for value added when the market

declines the problem is you have to know in advance that the market is about to decline as we all know, that's a very difficult insight to come up with more broadly, tyler, i think the answer to your question really is that by and large, the investment management market in the united states is almost entirely professionalized. what that means is there's no source of outperformance for the outperformers other than the underperformance odthe underperformers. and what that means is the average manager is competing against people who are just as skillful and just as well informed as he or she themselves which means there's no available outperformance for active managers as a group. since active managers incur costs, search costs, trading costs, et cetera, that passive funds do not incur, the active managers operate at an inherent disadvantage which accumulates and builds over time >> craig, the sort of flipside

to all of this is that indexing has obviously come the go-to strategy to such an extent jack vogel has warned its own bubble. what do you say to people who don't want to get sucked into active management and underperform, but they don't want to get sucked into an indexing problem that could be due for comeuppance down the road >> i don't think indexing could be fairly considered a bubble. for example, let's suppose someone puts a billion dollars into an s&p 500 index fund and they're going to trade at the close tonight. apple is roughly 6% of the s&p 500, so of that billion, $60 million is going to go into apple. apple is 6% before the trade takes place. it's 6% of the trade, it's going to be 6% tomorrow morning. the fact that money is flowing into index funds does not in

itself create the appearance of a bubble, especially since the money is probably coming out of an active portfolio, which was probably more concentrated than the index fund to begin with so my answer, i suppose, would be that there may be difficulty with index funds, but they don't distort prices in the way their critics sometimes suggest. >> it's the only thing i worry about, that it's so consensus to own index funds. is there part of the story we're missing? >> craig, your phones are going to be ringing shortly. >> i hope so >> thanks for joining us today >> more "power lunch" after a quick break. hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs!

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inside disney. let's get to julia boorstin. julia. >> sources tell me that senior leadership across disney's creative studios have expressed their frustration to disney's ceo about the way he handled the don't say gay bill in florida. now, in a series of meetings since disney's annual meeting last wednesday, i'm told by sources many have expressed frustration the company did not take a firm stand against the bill and also told employees took issue with the fact chappic did not respond critically to homophobic comments made by a shareholder in a q&a period. in the past week, executives have been hosting town halls and

meeting with their employees to hear their frustrations and concerns about this issue. today, an invitation went out for disney's regular reimagine tomorrow event it was anoannounced on march 2nd and scheduled on tuesday, the same day an employee walkout is scheduled about this issue this event is called lgbtq plus, get disney real. the invite says the event will address, quote, how does the don't say gay bill and other pending legislation impact lgbtq plus kids and families they also say they're address the question, what will it take to rebuild trust with their employees and lgbtq plus communities. no comment from disney on this, but an email that chapek sent to the company on friday said he's been talking to employees and that has helped him understand how painful the company's silence was. >> take us back a little bit through the history of this. the bill says and does what?

and disney was criticized for not coming out publicly in opposition to it but waiting until after to say we don't support it, and we were working, quote, behind the scenes have i have the narrative sort of right >> yes, that's right the other issue is that disney does make political donations in the state of florida, and i believe that one of the concerns is that the majority of those political donations have been made to republicans in the state. so one thing that chapek said in his email on friday is they were going to be pausing all political donations in the state as they evaluated this issue at issue is this is a company that traditional has taken a stand on issues, former ceo bob iger came out in favor of gun control, and this, many people, the company says, is really about treating people who are lgbtq plus as citizens and like they have human rights here. >> all right, julia, thank you

very much. julia boorstin with the news on disney thank you. >> let's get a quick check on stocks we're up for three days straight now. dow up 279 near the session highs. gamestop and fedex, two names reporting tonight. we'll look to more clarity from companies themselves in the next four weeks or so >> very interesting to see what fedex does in light of rising gas prices >> "closing bell" right now. >> stocks are near session highs. oil spiking 9% the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here are my top takeaways on today's big stories. dividends are going up dollar general and nordstrom resuming or upping their payouts today. global dividends set to rise to $1.9 trillion for 2022, back to precovid levels. the firm likes buying these income paying stocks because a lot of what we're dealing with right now, inflation, rising rates, volatility, yield curve flattening are all supportive of