julia boorstin with the news on disney thank you. >> let's get a quick check on stocks we're up for three days straight now. dow up 279 near the session highs. gamestop and fedex, two names reporting tonight. we'll look to more clarity from companies themselves in the next four weeks or so >> very interesting to see what fedex does in light of rising gas prices >> "closing bell" right now. >> stocks are near session highs. oil spiking 9% the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here are my top takeaways on today's big stories. dividends are going up dollar general and nordstrom resuming or upping their payouts today. global dividends set to rise to $1.9 trillion for 2022, back to precovid levels. the firm likes buying these income paying stocks because a lot of what we're dealing with right now, inflation, rising rates, volatility, yield curve flattening are all supportive of

dividend stocks. mortgage rates passing 4%, first time we have seen that in years. housing has been a healthy part of the economy and it's showing some signs of cracks prices have skyrocketed and now mortgage rates are rising, making it more unaffordable. watch for a slowdown in housing sales. and signet is soaring. talk about fundamentsals turning out to be solid. the stock was down more than 30% with all of the hammering over stimulus wearing off, today, they gave upbeat guidance for the quarter and fiscal year 2023, the ceo says the turnaround is working. and weddings are also coming back krns about the market, about demand falling off a cliff, proving to be overdone in some cases. let's get straight to the top story right now. the comeback for stock continues despite major risks. stocks are on pace for the best week of the year, despite the fed signaling it's going to keep

raising interest rates and this raging war in ukraine. also another spike in oil prices so should you trust to rally joining us, mark mobius and cnbc's mike santoli. mark, i'll start with you on global stocks. how are you feeling? it's not like the fed said that it wasn't going to be raising interest rates that's been a headwind it's not like we have resolution when it comes to ukraine should you buy stocks? >> my thinking is that definitely we're going to see higher and higher rates. i expect to see rates in america go up to 6% or 7%. but that doesn't mean the stock market has to go down. as you know, if you look at the history of interest rates and stock market, there's not much correlation, and anybody who wants to protect themselves against this inflation must hold stocks they must hold companies that are able to adjust their prices to inflation and it's interesting if you look at the global picture, a very mixed picture, you see countries

in latin america up or at least sideways movement, and even in asia, the same thing despite the fact that china has gone down dramatically, other markets around the world are not doing too badly. >> 6% or 7% is an aggressive target for interest rate hikes, mike, but what are you gathering from the commentary post fed about which stocks can continue to rise? it's interesting that there is follow-through today looked tentative this morning, but follow-through on top of a rally even though the fed said hey, every meeting is live we're going to keep going. we think the job market is tight and inflation is our number one fight. >> very weak dip this morning. obviously, the kind of -- people felt they were not positioned if this market was going to recover, so what i take away from that is yes, the fed -- the market has spent the last five months clinching up in fear of a tightening cycle and pricing that into bonds. and yesterday's message from

powell, even though the effort was to seem very, very firm and resolute against inflation, was not incrementally hawkish enough relative to what the market already maybe understood, and all that litany you mentioned, we tested the market for $130 oil, for a land war in europe at least in the short term, and the start of the fed tightening cycle and it didn't quite buckle it's a 5% or so rally in three days that's great it goes some distance toward proving the bulls are still in the game, but we're right at those levels where something like this would peter out if it was just a reflex technical bounce >> china, we started the week getting nervous about the lockdowns in china and the economic spillover effect. you have liked this market for a while. i'm sure your portfolio holdings are down, certainly for the year, but they have come in and said they're going to support the market is that ultimately why you stay there, because the authorities can do that, swoop in and save the day? >> yeah, basically, the chinese government could say, we like the market

we want it to go up, and it will go up. because investors in china listen to what the government is going to do and act accordingly. we don't have very much in china. we have much more in india and taiwan that doesn't mean that we're not looking because there may be some opportunities, but there are lot of things that are hitting china that make it very, very iffy. the situation with russia, for example, puts a lot of people on edge delisting of adrs and a numberf other issues with the u.s. makes china somewhat risky at this stage of the game. however, there are going to be opportunities going forward. >> eem, emerging markets, are not participating in today's rally. and they have been lagging does the war in ukraine or the fed hiking cycle change the thesis on emerging markets and how they could do this year? >> there's no question it changes the thesis for some of the markets. very dependent upon oil, they're going to be dealing with very

high oil prices going forward. and then you see what's happening in china as i said, many of these markets are doing quite well south africa, south brazil is up, a lot of the markets are moving sideways, not showing a lot of problems as a result of the russia situation so there's going to be lots of opportunities in these markets and around the world >> what's your favorite market right now? quickly. >> india india. there are great opportunities in india. despite the fact the market has gone down a little bit, but there are great opportunities in india. >> mark mobius, thank you for joining me mike santoli, i'll see you soon. >> after the break, inflation taking the wheel high gas prices are hitting owners of traditional vehicles while the pop in metals could lead to rising ev costs. we'll ask mark fields about the impact on automakers next. we're looking at the dow up 277. session high was just above 300. you're watching "closing bell"

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as we head into the close. automakers are underperforming, facing a number of issues. among them, rising oil prices, wti going back above $100 a barrel today look at the spike, up 9.6% and the global chip shortage leading toyota to cut its april production target. the russia/ukraine crisis expected to weigh on the industry with s&p cutting its car production forecast by more than 2 million units for 2022 and 2023 cnbc contributor and former ford

ceo mark fields joining us now good to see you. what are you expecting from auto sales this year given all of these headwinds on shortages and higher gas prices? >> i think you're going to see the market under pressure this year, but it's not because of demand i mean, there is still a lot of demand there the consumer, their financial balance sheets are pretty healthy. this is really about supply. and you just mentioned it. not only the semi-conductor shortage, but literally in the last week, whether it's the outbreak in covid in china in couple provinces that create a lot of auto components to the situation in ukraine where a lot of components like wiring harnesses come out of, to just the last day or two, the earthquake in fukushima which has shut down at least temporarily a couple of semi-conductor plants that provide chips to the automakers. this is going to be a supply issue. and the most important job in the automakers' roles these days in their c-suites is the chief

procurement and logistics officer. >> so if that's not happening, what do you expect to happen to prices given that kind of dynamic? >> well, i think what you have seen obviously average transaction prices literally every month are going up because of the supply constraint when you lay in fuel prices, i mean, everybody looks at the comparison to 2008 we're in a very different time versus 2008. because today, a lot of crossovers and suvs are built on car platforms which are a lot more fuel efficient. inventory is scarce, so therefore, the automakers have some pretty good pricing power, whereas back in 2008, the last time we saw $4 a gallon gas, the automakers were producing way more cars than the industry wanted and then finally, just the consumer and the economy are much healthier right? because in 2008, you had the financial markets collapsing you had layoffs mounting, all of those things i think you're going to continue to see a very strong pricing

environment, just for the fact that supply and demand is unbalanced right now >> but i wonder if we see, mark, a shift in consumer behavior toward evs given the fact that we are looking, what was the average, $4.28 per gallon across the country right now. i'm not sure they're easier to get, and they might be getting more expensive as well, but do you ultimately think this tips us over into more demand for electric vehicles? >> well, i absolutely do when a consumer comes up to the pump and they're paying $60, $70, $800, even $100 to fill up the tank, that's going to provide a pivot point for more people to be interested in evs the issue is they're tougher to come by these days given the production constraint, plus, the industry forecasters said listen, the total cost of ownership between an ice or internal combustion vehicle and

an electric vehicle, they would have crossed in the next year or two. that's increased because of the pricing. the pricing is going to go up. yes, there will be more interest, but the consumers are going to have to wrap their head around they're going to cost more >> who is best positioned? you're not leading ford anymore, so you can honestly answer the question is it a tesla which is raising prices and the first mover and the king of evs in terms of market share in this country or the gm and ford strategies who are also going all in? >> i think the best magicians are the ones that are coming out with evs over the next year to two years. to your point, i think tesla is very well positioned they were a first mover in the marketplace. you have seen literally over the last two weeks they have raised prices significantly around the globe. i don't think that's going to dent their demand. i think ford is well positioned. they have taken their most iconic vehicles, whether it's the mustang or the f-150

lightning that is coming i think they're well positioned. and gm, you know, they're introducing probably 20-some odd products in the next couple years. i think all those automakers are well positioned. and those are being very aggressive in their rollout over the next year ortwo are going to capture market share their challenge is going to be as their costs go up because the batteries are going up because the minerals they're going to be faced with a decision, do they cast that cost onto the consumer or do they eat part of it, which will impact their margins? >> the stocks have been hit really hard. 30% down this year for gm. about 25% for ford coming off good run-ups. mark fields, good to get your take thank you. let's get a check here on the markets. dow going strong we really have come up near the highs of the day, up 229 the s&p 500, every sector higher energy in the lead on the spike in crude oil that was the opposite story yesterday. technology is higher today, but

it is underperforming. the nasdaq up .7%, and small caps playing catch-up, up 1.3%, but we're continuing this rally we have pretty much seen all week long. we'll break down the charts on today's jobless claims number. what it signals about the health of the economy >> plus, today's closer is venture capital billionaire jim briar. his take on china where he's been investing for decades tech vuaons d altianit names he likes right now. we'll be right back. as a main street bank, pnc has helped over 7 million kids develop their passion for learning. and now we're providing 88 billion dollars

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from capitol hill. ylan mui with the details. ylan >> sara, the house has the votes to pass a bill that would end normal trade relations with both russia and belarus that vote is still ongoing, but currently, 292 lawmakers have voted for it that's well ahead of the 218 they need to pass this bill. and there is strong support from both republicans and from democrats. now, this bill would also allow the president to rasz tariffs on individual russian goods it calls on the president to

push for russia's removal from the wto, and it allows for individuals to be sanctioned for human rights violations as well. now, this bill is expected to clear the senate quickly president biden has already endorsed it. and now the house just set to pass this bill to end normal trade relations with russia. guys >> ylan mui, thank you >> one piece of good news on the data front today initial jobless claims showed only 214 americans filed for unemployment insurance last week that was less than expected. the number has been trending down mike santoli with a closer look at the job market for the dashboard. >> one of the best, most timely economic indicators and usually one that leads a recession, starts to rise, claims do before a recession. this the history of this data from 1970 to the very point at which the covid crash happened in 2020. what you'll see is it bottoms and starts to rise before the shaded area, which are recessions that's pretty consistent pattern in almost every one.

it was not starting to rise before the covid crash because that was a shock, and not a typical recession. take a look at what's gone on since the pandemic through now we're at the same levels, 214,000 four-week moving average of claims. this line is not starting to rise yet this problem is this broke the chart. the numbers were so huge that you can't see the subtleties of it, but this at least argues in support of jay powell saying what we know now, not seeing the signs of recession coming. >> numbers at these levels are healthy, bottom line one of the most noteworthy things he said, i read the whole news conference again last night, was the line that the labor market is so tight, it's tight in an unhealthy way. because that suggests, this is their mandate, to get a healthy jobs market and to fight inflation. and that means they can go aggressively to fight inflation, and they're not worried about the impact on employment >> two thoughts. one, it's good his renomination

hearings are over because i don't think that would have played well politically to say that a tight market can be unhealthy. two, he is marshaling whatever evidence he can to say there's so much room in the labor market, so many open jobs that they can slow the economy, get rid of the unfilled jobs and still not jeopardize the current employment levels. that's the hopeful bet >> seems like the market is onboard with that. >> up next on the show, billionaire venture capitalist jim breyer who was an early investor in facebook and whether chinese tech stocks look attractive after a wild week of swings we'll be right back. ♪♪

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today's big picture, dollar general, jumping on a strong forecast for sales this year in the big picture, we try to glean a macro message from a stock story. in this case, the low income american consumer increasingly feeling the pinch from inflation. that is good news for dollar general, where prices are super low. as the ceo said on the conference call this morning, quote, once that gas price reaches over $4 a gallon which it has now,we normally see the consumer stay closer to home which bodes well for the value and convenient message that we have out there in other words, the confident and upbeat forecast from dollar general actually spells trouble for consumer spending, especially at the low end, despite the wage gains and the job growth we have seen because

inflation is taking its toll here's where we stand in the markets right now. higher across the board. energy is the leading sector, up more than 3.3% materials, consumer discretionary, health care are other leadership groups. technology is up but underperforming, down at the bottom of the barrel with staples. the nasdaq up about .8%. ark innovation fund continues its comeback, up 4%. still about 8% lower on the month. up next, jim breyer on tech valuations after a strong week for the nasdaq and where he's looking for opportunities in the public and private markets s&p up .8% "closing bell" back in a moment. s to a financial plan this broker is your man. let's open your binders to page 188... uh carl, are there different planning options in here? options? plans we can build on our own, or with help from a financial consultant? like schwab does. uhhh... could we adjust our plan... ...yeah, like if we buy a new house? mmmm... and our son just started working.

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nasdaq having another strong session. third in a row, now up more than 5% for the week. today leading the charge, amazon, tesla, facebook, netflix. overall, big cap tech has taken a dive this year meantime, the federal reserve raised rates for the first time since 2018 joining us is billionaire venture capitalist jim breyer. he's was an early investor in facebook, he has invested in more than 40 companies that have merged or gone public. welcome. >> sara, congratulations on the new gig. >> thank you very much pleased to have you joining and phoning in for the first week. so talk to me about big cap tech valuations because i think you were last on in the fall when they started cracking, and you were saying i'm buying more. i thinkyou named microsoft, google at least, and apple i know they're on the forefront of what you're into right now, a.i., quantum. have you been buying and are you still as bullish on these stocks as they have gotten cheaper? >> i sure am, sara

and particularly microsoft, apple, google sit at the heart of what will be the next generation of a.i. and quantum opportunities. and so on weakness, i continue to add all three to the portfolio. what i would also say in the pr private world, we spent so much time doing analysis of management teams and leaders so as long as tim cook and satia and other leaders are running the companies, i'm a long-term buyer and holder these are some of the best executives in the world, and they are recruiting some of the best a.i. and quantum talent in the world. >> what about meta or facebook the company that you invested in -- how old was mark zuckerberg when you first invested in that company 20 >> well, he was 20 he was a month away from 21, and i speak to meta often. i think what is underappreciated about meta is instagram, which a

lot of people do appreciate, but it sits at the heart of so much of web 3.0 with worldwide growth and a really important worldwide brand. i think obviously, at $600 billion market cap, it's still expensive, but on a fundamental look forward basis over two to three years, i think it is a long term buy. but i have not added to the position at all. the adds are microsoft, apple, and some of the deep tech companies. >> i was curious to ask, jim, about what you think of zuckerberg's big strategic pivot to the metaverse, which i know you're -- i think you're in the company that bob iger announced this week that he's joining the board of, genies, for making metaverse avatars so what do you think of zuckerberg's strategy and all of the hype around the metaverse in general as an investing theme? >> the metaverse is overhyped

but fundamentally important. the investments in a private basis i have made tend to be in the gaming companies so fortnite and niantic, a number of these companies are really at the forefront of what the beginnings of the metaverse will look like i'm long if i take a five to seven-year view, but it's going to take time it always does and one of the things that's really interesting right now, private valuations in the world of venture capital have not adjusted and we have known that over -- we had a 20% correction in many of the best public companies and therefore, there's this tremendous opportunity, i think, to arbitrage a bit when i'm thinking about the next generation opportunities and where is the best development talent in the world going, they're going to crypto and the blockchain, and they're going to the intersection of a.i., health care, and medicine and i have made 12 investments

since the early investments in crypto, circle and coinbase in 2013 and in a.i. medicine as we discussed in davos a couple years ago, if i could advise our children, grandchildren, what to study, where to go, it would be at this intersection of a.i. and medicine, where there are companies that are revolutionizing cancer diagnosis, receiving fda approvals for their a.i. have been shelling efficacy and reducing error rates helping our doctors and our nurses in so many ways so i have a portfolio of 12 a.i. andmedicine companies that are doing many of these types of applications, working with our great hospitals such as msk and md anderson. but at the same time, drug discovery is being revolutionized by the quantum revolution and quantum is not just about quantum computers. i always have to emphasize that

as i did earlier this week with michael dell on the panel here there's a range of quantum technologies that are more near term where a.i. particularly will provide superb advantages, and again, amazon and microsoft are two of the leaders in many of the fundamental a.i. companies and quantum companies, but you'll see a tremendous set of innovation in start-up quantum companies focused on medical applications and other verticals. in fact, in about a week, i will have an announcement to make about a stealth company that has some of the best and brightest out of one of our megy cap companies focused on quantum technologies >> good tease. it is really exciting stuff. i have a 4-year-old that maybe i should start to sign up for a.i. health tech, i guess, according to you, jim. can you talk a little bit more about the disconnect between the private market and the public market and what you think is going to happen in venture

capital. this was the red hot part of the markets last year when capital markets were soaring so do you think it's just going to fall with a lag >> i think it will take six to nine months to reset some. but there isn't reality that has set in, and part of my analysis is i spend a lot of time trying to understand where we are with worldwide supply chains and shipping from china to u.s. has been well publicized what has not is how much comes from china through moscow to europe and so i think we're going to see a period of shortages of many of the most important components, higher prices, higher inflation, and that l leads, i think, to a view that for certain kinds of companies, they're going to have real difficulty getting the parts they need over the next nine to 12 months. >> you bring up china, and i did want to ask you about that because you had been in that market for the better part of 20

years. series a and baidu there's a big debate over whether china is still investable given all of the shifts lately in regulation and their domestic policy, the geopolitics of it all. you're still in that market. are you making changes, rethinking what to do? >> absolutely. starting about 18 months ago, we stopped focusing on core underlying deep tech and focused and have focused on health care, medical services, again, a.i. and medicine intersect, and i'm not a buyer of some of the companies that we were involved with long term tencent, alibaba, baidu. there's too much complexity around how the central government is looking at these businesses to really have a long term investment thesis, but there's a next generation of companies in medicine and health care in china that are

representing great opportunities that do have very significant central and provincial backing i will say we're in a really important race in quantum versus china. china is the only other competitor to the u.s >> are we winning or losing? >> we are losing right now, but i am doubling and tripling down in quantum technologies. i believe we're probably on the second hole for golfers in the audience of an 18-hole match we're losing, but i'm confident we'll be able to through policy and most importantly entrepreneurship combine a.i. and tech in ways in quantum that china cannot so very bullish. again, because it's not just about the quantum computers that are being built in china and the u.s. it's about a series of quantum technologies >> and that's why i know you like microsoft and apple and google bringing it home to the

investor jim, great to talk to you, as always jim breyer a lot of ideas out there >> great pleasure. >> when we come back, rising recession risks. while jan hatzius says the chances of recession in the u.s. could be as high as 35%. he'll join us to splay that call and what he made of the fed chair yesterday when the market zone comes right back. dow is up 277. ...oh... need to be on a f- (jane) with visible, i get unlimited data for as low as $25 a month. no family needed. (vo) i guess i spoke too soon. visible. switch now and get 3 months of single-line wireless for $20 a month.

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stocks are climbing. we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. plus goldman sachs economist, chief economist jan handsious

first, let's hit the broader market because the s&p up a solid 1%, the dow up for the fourth day in a row, and wall street's volatility index, the vix, is hitting a one-month low. significance of that, just as everything was getting so negative >> it's a tension release rally is what we're seeing now, because we had some of those known kind of stress events going to the rear view mirror, obviously, the fed meeting and also some kind of equilibrium or some sight toward progress in ukraine. oil off the highs even if it's from all the things pressuring us to me, it's an excuse for an oversold market that has gone straight down with one of the worst starts to any year in history to pick up ground here i would say 2% rallies of the s&p two days in a row followed by a 1% rally, it's nothing to sneeze at. we're at levels where folks are

saying it's going to be hard to make progress, but that's the action you see when the market is at least suggesting there's a chance we bottomed >> treasury yields are rising again after the decision to hike interest rates and signaling more hikes on the way. joining us is jan hatzius. you predicted seven hikes and that's where the fed is right now. what if anything did powell say that surprisedyou? >> it surprised me a little bit that the balance sheet run-off is likely to come a bit earlier, so that's the one change we made on the back of yesterday that we thought it was going to be announced in june. now we think it's going to be announced at the may meeting but in terms of the path of the funds rate, we still think seven hikes of 25 basis points each this year including yesterday's decision, andthen four hikes i

2023 i think that was pretty consistent with what we heard from the chair >> the market and the federal reserve, jan, appears to be in this place where it's not pricing in or expecting a recession. in fact, powell even said recession risks are not elevated you do think they're a little elevated, don't you? you raised your recession odds to 35% recently. can the fed go through with this inflation fight and everything else going on with the world and avoid a recession here >> yeah, we noted that if you look at the slope of the yield curve, that's probably implying 20% to 35% risk of recession, depending on what yield curve slope measure you use. and i think that's roughly the right area, the right range. i do think it's higher than just the normal probability of maybe 15% per year on average over the cycle. because the labor market looks

quite overheated and i think very consistent with what powell said yesterday, we do have an extremely tight labor market and so the room for additional above trend growth i think is more limited we do need to see a slowdown to a trend growth pace. if we do see further significant labor market tightening, i think that is going to raise the risk of recession because it's difficult to generate a soft landing once you have overshot full employment to a significant degree it's very hard for the unemployment rate to edge up and generate a bit more room in the labor market without that turning into a recession i don't think that's a foregone conclusion at this point but i do think that the risk is somewhat higher than it was six months ago or 12 months ago. >> where do you think inflation finishes out the year this year? >> we have a similar forecast to the fed, so for core pce, we're

a little over 4% by the end of this year. >> and you think we peak where over 10% >> in terms of headline inflation, i think it's still going to go higher from here you know, just given the increase in energy prices so in the 9% range it depends a lot on energy over the sort of near term. but yeah, 10%, i think, i don't think is going to be quite as high as that >> since you mentioned your call today on the balance sheet run-off starting next meeting i think you said in may, what do investors need to know about that because stocks have been very correlated with the fed's balance sheet in recent years. as that's gone up, they love stimulus taking that away could be painful. is it priced in? is it going to cause weakness? what do you think? >> well, i think it is to a significant degree priced in i do think people are expecting

balance sheet adjustment there's been uncertainty about the exact pace of run-off and timing, but i do think most of this should not come as a surprise i also think it was interesting that powell said the start of balance sheet run-off is effectively the equivalent of another hike i think that makes it little less likely you'll see a 50 basis point move at the may meeting if that's what they use for the balance sheet announcement >> they'll pair those two instead. jan hatzius, great to have you, post fed appreciate it. >> thank you >> chief economist at goldman sachs. we're accelerating gains with ten minutes to the close the s&p up 1.2%. a new note from wolf research downgrading several credit card issuers saying hot inflation and rising gas prices will hurt lower end consumers impacting capital one. the analyst behind the call joins us now

bill, it's good to have you. do you not think these concerns are on the low income consumer and credit quality and deterioration are already priced into the stocks? >> hi, sara. actually, i don't think that they are our concern is that there is incremental pressure on the low-end consumer as a result of as we look at the developments post russia/ukraine. even if there is a peaceful settlement tomorrow, the risk of inflationary pressures remaining elevated for longer, particularly if russia remains isolated, are quite high and issuers, credit card issuers with elevated exposure to the low end consumer are at risk of having credit normalize faster we're not talking about draconian credit but having credit normalized to 100% of 2019 levels is enough for there to be certainly a greater headwintd than we think is contemplated in numbers. and so that in our view is what exposes names like sincrany

financial, capital one, to relative underperformance verses names that have greater prime and super prime exposure like american express and discover, which have consumer bases that are relatively better places to absorb those higher inflationary pressures. >> what sort of price targets do you have what sort of downside do you see, and are you suggesting a recession or just weakness in the low income consumer? >> we're not suggesting a recession. this is truly a relative value call these stocks before russia/ukraine dynamics hit the stocks, they were already trading at low valuations. if you look at their relative valuations and both relative and on an absolute basis, they were trading at low valuations versus the historical pe multiples, so it's certainly not an outright call to short the stocks but on a relative basis, we see room

for relative outperformance to the overweight names that have prime and super prime exposure versus the names that have -- we think you'll get that relative outperformance we don't see meaningful downside from the depressed valuation levels, but we do see that relative outperformance opportunity. >> thank you for joining us with the call today, bill >> mike, quickly, bank of america and merrill lynch took the other side of this they actually today reiterated their positive view on the credit card stocks claiming that a lot of this is priced in and that aren't reallysigns yet of the consumer breaking. i mentioned dollar general with that upbeat forecast, but there's nothing to suggest that has broken credit quality or anything like that at the low-end consumer >> the upbeat count toor that is consumer balance sheet remains in aggregate pretty good obviously on the lower end, lower income scale not as great, but job market is strong, income

gains continuing we have a strong nominal growth economy. i like to remind people of that, even if inflation stays high, it means the whole pool is getting bigger i think it's a fair call on a relative basis that maybe the lower end issuers are going to suffer more. but the market has gone a fair distance into trying to take account of that. >> take a look at warby parker climbing today very volatile premarket trading earlier where the stock was down as much as 13% the eyewear company, e-commerce company, reporting revenues in line with estimates but management said sales were hurt in the previous quarters due to omicron. they also issued a weaker than expected sales forecast for 2022 warby has been a weak performance since basically its debut in the public markets, late september down nearly 50%. you put it in the category with the sweetgreens and allbirds so much excitement when these companies went public. they captured the consumer, grown very fast. they have not been good public

company investments. >> they have not put them all together in this kind of recognizable consumer brands that really became buzzy several years ago. more like the millennial consumer was an early adopter of them a real story about the 2020 and 2021 ipo markets and how forgiving it was if you had a consumer, especially direct to consumer stock we could put oatly in there. we could put bumble in there, for that matter. all terrible stocks. now the big question is, have they been left for dead, have they been neglected long enough. they're orphaned ipos now. is the room, as sweetgreen has recovered after its results recently, is there room to sift for value in the wreckage. >> the other question which we have been asking a lot lately is what's an appropriate valuation for a company, pre-profit company like this, that has been growing fast the fundamentals haven't changed but the valuation has, and the valuation picture around interest rates has so were they just priced too expensively when they came out of the gate last year in that

market or are they cheap now >> at issuance, people treated them as a fundamentally different type of company than an eyeglass company, a shoe company, or a fast casual dining chain, if you're looking at those three stocks they're not fundamentally different in terms of the overall drivers even if they're gaining market share to me, you have to do the companies with legacy companies as opposed to just say consumer app driven companies, you know, trade at 10 or 20 times forward sales. that game is over. >> just put them up against their competitors and start valuing them that way. take a look at crude oil big pop today, jumping more than 9% after the internationalp energy agency said 3 million barrels a day of russian oil could be shut next month let's bring in pippa stevens was the drop in oil earlier this week just a fluke given the reality that those russian barrels are coming off line? >> well, these wild swings are

becoming pretty common place for oil, and that's a combination of uncertainty on the fundamental front as well as trading dynamics so we had goldman sachs just now cut its q2 brent forecast thanks to potential shutdowns in china and slowing demand amid those covid cases. as well as the potential slowdown in overall economic growth however, they also said that the sell-off that brought us back to the pre-invasion levels was overdone and this market remains very tight looking forward, they expect that russian oil exports will be smaller than expected disruptions, so a little bit of a disconnect from what the iea said and what other firms are saying that really gets to the heart of it right now, which is this huge uncertainty in the market. there's a big disconnect between what's being said on the supply side and what's actually happening. so at this point, we really just need some more data, more clarity on how russian exports will be impacted

>> in the meantime, the administration has called on u.s. energy firms to ramp up production despite some criticism of the administration on that front. have they -- i know you just don't turn it on, but what have we been seeing >> you really can't just turn it on by any means. if they were to start drilling today, we wouldn't see those new barrels come to the market for another six to nine months so while the rig count is going up and these prese prices are tempting, they're not bringing production back online at the same pace that $100 oil would have meant in the past and that's because they emerged from the pandemic with wholly new business propositions. they're paying dividends, buying back stock, and really keeping production steady between zero and 5%, so definitely not an uptick for the time being. >> thanks. mike, energy stocks are at the top of the market at 3%, the only group, though, lower for the week going into friday down 4% after some pretty big gains already. so is it just a call every day

on the direction of where oil prices go? >> for the most part i think it all fits together with a very high momentum move, that surge we got into the highs. now it's a correction, even though it's a deep one, we went down more than 20% in crude, it still really doesn't do much of anything to change the overall longer term trend. i would say, if you go out a few months, the crude futures ts ar trading in the $90 range there's a discount if you go out a while. the market expects more to come on in future months. >> amazon, tesla, facebook leading the qqqs higher, tracking the nasdaq. amd, microsoft, jd giving back some what do you see in the internals? >> it's been strong pretty much all day. we have not gotten one of those kind of buying panic days. today if you look at the split, well over 2.5 to 1, advancing versus declining volumes no issue there

look at new 52-week highs and lows on the new york stock exchange wi still have nor more lows than highs. the market is almost down double digits as a whole so that's not surprising but this is one of the smallest numbers or differentials between highs and lows in a while. slowly, the market is trying to get a little traction. i wanted to look at metals relative to financials they were pretty much neck and neck if you look over a couple months ago, and boom, you got the ukraine invasion, and it's all about hard metals and less about paper wealth and assets like financials. >> yeah, on supply concerns and safety concerns. mike, thank you. as we head into the close, less than a minute to go, session highs for the dow. we have continued to see this surge in the final hour of trading in the last few sessions this is the fourth straight day in a row of gains for the dow. biggest contributors is united health care, american express, and caterpillar. s&p 500 going out with a strong

gain as well of 1.16%. energy in the lead, consumer staples behind, everybody is higher the nasdaq is also underperforming today but stronger as we head into the close. nasdaq going out with a gain of 1.3% that does it for me on "closing bell." see you tomorrow now i'll send it in to "overtime" with scott wapner >> sara, thanks. welcome to "overtime." you just heard the bells ring. we're just getting started in o.t. we begin with our talk of the tame, whether the newfound momentum for stocks is sustainable after another very strong day this as the s&p right now is on track for its best week of the year one day to go, of course, but that is how we're trending it's a big question. we need an answer. we ask superinvestor ricky sandler, founder and ceo of eminence capital he joins us live welcome to "overtime." great to hav