[ laughter ] all right. there's that chippen dale shot >> i'm around in third and headed for home, with a baseball analogy. that was joe nuxall, one of the youngest pitchers ever join us next week. "squawk on the street" is next good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer. carl quintanilla is finishes a week off you can see what we are set up for a lower open our road map does start with the futures pointing to that lower open, but the dow and s&p still on pace for what would be one of the best weeks since november of

2020 plus, president biden and chinese president xi are set to speak this hour. they will be discussing the ongoing russia/ukraine crisis, of course. an important phone call. ceo larry culp is taking a pay cut. we'll talk about the responsiveness of the ge board let's start with the markets here on the final trading day of the week a strong week, jim despite what may by initial weakness we have all seen the volatility that can occur during the course of one trading day your thoughts on this final day of the week. >> i think this week was a week where we were gratified -- i should say ceos are gratified that maybe the inflation cycle can be broken. it started most ceos i talked to say, you know what? the idea that we have to

endlessly pass on our costs means that our whole business will be devalued there's a lot of regular people who watch the show, and they think that it's ridiculous that ceos want this, but i think i'm in the camp, just as everybody's purchasing power is eroded if this continues am i a sycophant for jay i just think he's done a good job. >> did you listen to chris waller's conversation? do you have any thoughts >> they're too focused on inflation. >> what do you want them focused on >> the defeat of putin, and the idea we can't give in. the only truce must include -- >> must include putin resign >> yes >> ukraine will be the one to negotiate.

>> a lot of people feel that yeltsin never recovered from achieve anyia -- >> we're showing a headline here -- this is an important conversation that will be taking place. of course, if the chinese were to move to toward overt support, that could be significant wrenching up of tensions between china and the u.s. that's a large bigger partner of trading with u.s. -- >> china obviously does not -- i know you look askance at that proposition. the russians have historically used artillery to decimate everything that's always been their game. they're doing that very effectively against many ukrainian since. >> that's about the only thing

the military campaign has been a disaster for logistics, their inability to get the conscripted soldiers to fight effectively. they have lost more generals and top commander in three weeks they have lost 7,000 troops, according to u.s. estimates. >> to see that number of generals very interesting stalin send in a jewish general into the russian army, made a statement to germany unfortunately he was killed in artillery. i do think it's rather shocking that this many generals have been killed. >> they were supposed to have modernized their forces. >> it's being prosecuted lie the

1994 achchechnya, where putin cs to level the capital city. i think that's what he would like to see here >> that's what's happening in that city. >> people say, by the way, jim, what do you know about war this was what i was going to do. i was going to be a professor of military history i was asked, and i was like, you can say what does that matter? i read a lot about the military, and it is rather amazing that the russians still have not figured out how to use infantry other than when they took berlin they would have to take unlimit ed -- enough of this this thing -- biden needs to convince the chinese to isolate, then it will be the first war

won by actual financial blockade some people feel, like neil ferguson -- >> it's an important call. we'll see what -- >> is it bad that we spent three minutes on what most people are talking about? >> no, it's not. every conversation you have, people want your opinions. >> what should we talk about i think you have to study the history of eastern aleppo. >> i do want to move on to the market, and you've got to let me >> ice cream cone, diamond hands? >> this guy over at jpmorgan points out this is the fifth worst start for the s&p since 1947, but said tightening remains the -- and the market still has up side.

not just for energy, but even maybe some growth names. supplies are so far less feared -- >> i felt he's even talking about the joke stocks that came public >> i know, right. >> you know what that's done i call them the half a leg stocks >> he does seem to have influence on some investors. people like to cite hem as one reason -- >> it's fine that he's cited i think that the market is remarkably resilient i think there are buyers all over the place on both destroyed growth names the money seems to have come from banks which are stalled, even though with the rate hikes, you would think it wouldn't matter every night we have a company that defines things.

last night it was fedex. this was the most impenetrable fedex conference call i have seen in my 25 years of reading those calls. >> hold that thought, as we turn to fedex, the stock is under pressure it was a slight earnings miss. it was impacted by worker shortages, which stem from the spread of the omicron variant. >> 15%. >> and inflation, the next ceo and up were discussing those issues on the call. >> especially inflation has picked up and, you know, there's obviously consumer spendingin february, is already down. it's difficult to forecast in this environment, but i'm going to tell you, the big period of growth is now behind us, and we are planning to, you know, from that perspective, we are confident even with the single-digit growth that we were

talking about on e-commerce, that we were able to generate positive returns going forward >> now, share your thoughts. >> okay. i was trying to figure out, when i was parsing this, is he saying that the spend for great internet e-commerce traffic is over in the next sentence, he says he expects three to four years of excellent e-commerce if that's true, then you've got to buy the stock but the could notconvolutino, wi finished it, it was an inconclusive conference call, to be done. there just was not enough in

there to decide whether or not things will get better they say ground is not doing as well inflation costs are bad, but the most significant thing was omicron knocked on the 15%, so we'll see what happenswhen everyone comes back. >> i know other investors are also curious about succession. that's a key issue he talked about a number of different roles taken on, including the appointment of mr. smith's son, richard, who is now leading the americas region. he was responsible for the vaccine distribution they're confident richard will take the organization to the next level there were a lot of investors on some sort of succession plan, which is expected to be the heir apparent, but maybe shareholders who are not convinced that, jim.

>> do you think that arthur smith should be the heir apparent >> i don't know. >> orb the assistant coach of the falcons? i mean, he's a good coach. i think he has to move on. he has to move on, the quarterback position, he had calvin ridley, that was an interesting guy, placed bets on games, not unlike what you tried to do with draft does that kings. the second thing, the act didn't work. >> right you know what? >> i've made this point before in terms of the size of the company, and then the respective huge gap in market capitalization. >> and they had costs better under control, but there's an upcoming union negotiation, which a lot of people will feel

will be one of the great tugs of war. by the way, i don't cast aspersions on arthur smith, but i hope we play the falcons. >> he's been a great quarterback. >> the highest paid -- well, i don't know, aaron rodgers is -- i don't need devonta >> we'll talk about that re-sign rodgers and let the greatest receiver go >> the commandos guy. >> the commanders, not the commandos. they're not going commando >> i thought they were commandos. after the break we'll talk about ge the ceo agrees to a big paycut. >> he saves the company and what does he get? here's your hat.

take a look at the futures as we head to break there. lost some weight, though, he does look good. >> when i saw him this week, trimmed down, but still hasn't taken a vacation since he got the job. more "squawk on the street", stig aadrahthe as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency.

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it's almost a year ago, the board decision your comp, we all know that, but your shareholders didn't seem particularly happy

with it. almost a year ago, august i think, they lowered your target share. there was a nonbinding reso resolution, shareholders saying they oppose that what do you tell shoulders as to why they should not have done that the board extended my contract a year ago i was honored to have the opportunity to be on this team when i joined nearly three years ago. obviously delighted the board has confidence in my to lead the company into the future. >> that was general electric's chairman. >> that was such a tough interview. >> not answering a question from our interview, of course i asked him about the package. it was specific to that compensation for 2020, jim i referenced it in the last block of programming they did lower his award to 667.

we've gotten the share reverse split, so don't even think about that number anymore, but the thing is the board was listening. now, today they say after considering shareholders' feedback, the committee has agreed to redue the annual from 15 million, as was provided in this employment agreement, to five so 67% reduction they basically say we heard you, shareholders you know, we agreed to do this, because we talked to a lot of their shareholders in fact, they say they spoke to shareholders representing 52% of total outstanding shares, 76% institutionally held shares, and they got the message that there was concern about that 2020 one-time equity award, how that was granted and said revisiting was unnecessary.

what are your thoughts >> okay. i was with a gathering of executives not long ago. we took a vote about his pay package. >> what did you come up with >> the result was he deserved as much stock as he could get since the company was going under. i mean, vanish, bankrupt bankrupt wow what they had in their so-called hedge funds. what they had with the turbine -- actually -- they announce it like the thing that you wear, you know yeah, i think it would have gone, so larry deserved it.

>> duties -- >> the issue was -- >> there was the plan to split the company. still, worrying about windmills. >> power was not yesterday fixed. >> jpmorgan analyst. he continues to be negative. >> he's a smart guy. he says he has even higher conviction, that the company is not doing well using well below numbers, and,

david, this is my favorite minus 25% from where he's trading. >> and, by the way -- starting to look better now. >> what are you doing? >> i've got a label. >> don't do that. >> what is this? >> it's an interesting example, though, as well of companies willing to do shareholders it's a nonbinding resolution. >> it was a slap, david. >> we'll get back to you after the break. >> would you this i about your mad dash, please >> i'm going to try to game it will you stop it mi no, i think we know what's cong up.

take a look at the futures a lot more "squawk on the street" after this

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let's get to the mad dash. >> i am fortunate enough to which privy to the actual game plan that they unveiled. i would just like to show you. >> you believe -- negative cash flow of $110 million they raised it on the backs of

people who didn't know anything. they raised $1.6 billion the revenues have been flat, sold $1.27 billion still in cash, but they're going to move aggressively into the ntf market, which we know is so important. they still owe -- they have cleaned up most of the balance sheet. they still owe to the french and then think hired dozens of individuals with experience in areas such as blockchain i think that's important gaming is always good. they did pick up le novo, appeared most importantly they had a conference call. there were no questions allowed? >> there weren't >> no. they have a guy who always reminds me of horse race, his name is mac furlong. he was worse than po siden's

warrior or mainstay. what is an appropriate price for this stock, jim? give me a number just tell me >> i don't know. 25 if they get it right. >> gaming is still hard. the playstation is still really hard >> it's still a very hot area, but, david, three years, losing money, and i just -- i see better fish to fry i see better -- >> you see the background there in that's so cool. >> i haven't seen the movie yet. >> i kind of like that effect. >> no one else is burning it like that. >> but we may run into another company that's made the decision to do that. >> i'm from philadelphia. >> i know that. >> i never threw a battery at santa or the eagles, but snowballs?

bingo! they had a bad year. >> particularly when the commandos come to town they look good this year. opening bell is in a few mite ay with us

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by -- yeah, there it is. we've got a minute before we get started with trading here at the new york stock exchange. you and i occasional like to do something called key to the market it dates back 20 years ago from our early days where mark haines would ask a similar question. >> i would like to be more abtruce. lamb research. now we still have this giant chip shortage. people always talk about pat g gelsinger who's to address it. lamb numbers estimates are the lowest, so watch lrcx, to see

whether we will have growth in semis. right now we're short. the biggest problem in america right now for supply is semiconductors lamb is the solution >> here's the opening of the new york stock exchange. given that, probably a little more red will end up there at the big board is reports guru over tess nasdaq decarbonization company 5/e advanced materials celebrating. by the way, not seeing that much activity when it comes to initial public offerings. >> ben soto is doing work, my researcher and partner, and he said, they're turning up >> stocks are turning up, spacs

themselves that may be the case they don't have far to go. to zero many of those. >> i always found that to be encouraging when they stop at zero. >> there's no end to -- >> a little bit like hockey sticks, but they're rallies. >> it's up to 60 today. >> look at that. i smell a bottom, david. >> but they continue. >> what's really going on with mgm here where we are with that deal? >> it's done remember, you said -- ftc could still challenge it the ftc has reserved the right to do so two democrats, two republicans, they're still waiting for the fifth to be appointed, it should be 3-2, then make a decision to challenge the merger >> so people asked me about

that. >> they completed it, so it doesn't -- >> people said, jim, could you ask david about if a deal is closed, how can it be -- >> you're choosing to close the deal at the risk of it being potentially challenged obviously this case doesn't feel like it's likely, as we've said many times, it's unclear what law the ftc would be relying on, but we know leena kahn, of course, she rose to prominence of that paper she wrote when she was at yale about amazon's dominance broadly speaking so there continues to be a question, whether they do get the fifth commissioner appointed, where they may revisit this transaction, and/or at least try to do something to say, you have to do something to reverse it is it likely probably not amazon now owns mgm. with the disclosure of the mgm

deal, how many other assets are out there in the world apple did take a look at the mgm, but they were well lower. others were well lower amazon came in with a very high price. now what other assets are out there. if you're ned flicks, for example, and you say we would love to keep broadsening, what's out there? >> activision blizzard will be -- i thought that was brilliant. >> that comes down to antitrust, but viacom is till out there, but with paramount and paramount plus. >> there is a cottage industry -- >> you know, doing something to bulk up their offerings. we've got discovery warner about to close, let's call it less than a month from now at this

point, that's going to be fascinating to watch the growth of that service and what they're going to do. there's a look at at&t shares, which they just don't like to go up, do they? a pure wireless place there. >> i just feel uncomfortable talking about the fee. >> -- in terms of cash flow that is you may recall. down in '22, back up in '23, the way they're formulating ebitda, and including certain things in cap ex they didn't done previously. >> what this is about to me is to say, look it, one of our callers last night said -- >> on "mad money", yes. >> -- i'm in this stock because of a takeover. i said, that's not why you can own stocks here. that's a prop that does not exist. you can't own a stock because

ear hoping someone bids for it that's fool's gold. >> yeah, a small company, the chances are it probably won't face an antitrust review by the way, the level of ma&as s not gone the dropped overall in equities may make private equity even more aggressive. we know that nielsen deal has been reported on as a possibility. kohl's continues to be a name, other than to say, the history of retailers going private is mixed, to be kind. >> yes, burning bed, my friend remember federated there's a lot of them that didn't go well that said, kkr -- dollar general, that was a good one. >> they bought it during a cycle

where people didn't like those stocks, because the economy was good when the economy softened, it was all brilliant textbook, and dollar general, now after this run, people are started to get worried about it, saying the consumer is getting softer >> you buy dollar general. the analysts, look at this, they're all saying get away from it my dollar general admittedly did not have much inventory. it looked frankly like a russian department store >> like we used to say when i lived in washington, d.c., there was the soviet safeway there was nothing on the shelves. that's what putin wants to go back way. >> remember the haguen deal? >> toys "r" us that didn't go very well the value of the real estate there. keep an eye on the financing markets. there's no big hiccup, but

certainly there might be an unwillingness to fund certain things either take it out in price or, you know, increase president equity, as you look at the broader markets, jim it's been a strong week. i do want to get back to waller, who steve liesman had on "squawk box" a little while ago. >> that's depressing you talk about covid. >> this is what he had to say. >> let's listen. >> the data is basically screaming at us to go 50, but the geopolitical events were telling you to go forward with caution. those two factors combined pushed me off of advocating for a 50 basis point hike in this meeting and supporting the 25 basis point hike we enacted. so going forward, that's an issue in the next meeting. >> 50 and 50, pretty soon you're

getting to real numbers. if you were listening to the american express call, i think you would say -- if you listened to the lenna call, the demand is incredible for housing, and they're racing prices furiously. if you listened to plastic and miner board calls, you would wish they would go 50. the paint business there are many businesses where we must break the cycle of you have to pay more, because we pay more that's called endemic, it's in there, and you can argue 50 easily, but he said, listen, we're going -- he has to end had hollywood squares game >> i know you hate that. i know you make a lot of suggestions. nobody takes them, but you make a lot of them. >> none. >> that doesn't stop you, though.

>> thanks a lot. geopolitical events is telling you to go forward with caution. >> what, you go recklessly david, if you listen to the conference calls, it's clear there's way too much inflation it's kind of crazy. >> fedex today being another example of it, right and/or wage inflation. >> if you lose 50% of your workforce to omicron, if you're jay, you want to see what happens when the endemic -- david, can i just say something? >> anything you want. >> the purpose of going to the office -- i had lauren on from williams sonoma. hybrid is forever. that changed the economy that made it so it's very difficult to game the economy. >> do you think jay polyhad the

vision -- are you kidding me who thought that >> as you say, there's no doubt that hybrid work is the way it's going to go. headquarters, which is not too far from here, people are showing up four days a week. fridays, today -- >> they work they work from home. >> they're not showing up. when they're on zoom, hey -- they work in zoom just long fluff to be able to say -- >> we still haven't seen how it will play out. you go into the office but your colleagues are on zoom, so what's up with that? so many other components, and things that are more difficult to measure as well, jim.

>> the people in their 60s, they want to come back every day, 50s every day, 40s, but when you get to the early 30s, or 20s, they say, make my, just try to make me. >> when you have young children at home, sometimes it's easier for the early 20s, i don't get that at all. >> the average length of time, 2 1/2 years. you teach them, you give them all your blood, sweat and tears, and at the end of two years, they go to a competitor. you think that's right >> no, but -- yes, i think it's perfectly the option of the

employee to do what they want. absolutely, but that's when you need them in the office to get them attached to something other than their screen. maybe the relationship changes over time, maybe jobs become more scarce -- excuse me, more plentiyful aren't therefore the employees doesn't have the power that thiey do right now. >> it used to be if you left in less than five years, it was a disgrace now it's two it's not right. >> it doesn't matter what you think. >> you're saying it's not right that devonta adams had to leave? >> you just love football so much, don't you?

>> i seat next to adam silver i sit next to power players. >> they have some table in the back >> i mean, ump like -- i had to google your table. >> i was alone i was alone. >> most of year people were not even on google >> it's in the way of the midst of a horrible, horrible pandemic there are questions about china, what will be the death rate? moderna says everybody should get a fourth shot. >> i can't get confirmation from my doctors a fourth shot is

right, but again, the cdc is not allowed to tabulate things they have no authority to tabulate the doctor who i see says that it's going to be revealed against this sunday on "60 minutes. >> no authority to tabulate? >> they can't get the data from states >> i see >> the cdc does not have the authority to tabulate the information. i don't know to me in the end what matters is adobe may not do as well as people thing got a double buy to tell from piper, nicole mcmiller, who i like very much, and jpmorgan revealed the fab five. >> who are the fab five? >> are you ready >> i'm ready. >> amazon, microsoft, google,

salesforce, and servicenow >> that's the fab five >> he's not fair -- >> totally not fair. >> look, there it is >> while jim trying to figure out a way to say that -- >> they are amassing the five. >> who has more thoughts good morning, bob. >> good morning. my heavens, this is you choppy trading. >> we're going to get very heavy volume you notice something odd? china and arc tend to move

together recently. energy's down this week, topped out. but oil is still 102, 103. banks, okay, not great. >> down today, regional banks, same thing industrials again, up and down the main story is inflation, how can you construct the model? it's really hard margin pressure due to labor headwinds, lower volume, inflation pressures.

that's an issue. that's not a good sign for those hoping that inflation will moderate in the second half of the year this is the stuff you want to look for i was astonished at the prices in miami, and people said, why don't you stop going maybe that would help, and they're right. car vana is getting push back with higher prices. >> that's an issue he's concerned about the higher prices we haven't seen pushback

yesterday on the airlines, on the hotel rates. >> these are going to be stories you're going to be hearing about. meantime, as far as trading the market, it's just all over the place. value is killing it. so anything related to value is generally flat to down growth is down 12%, but that's basically technology, so there's growth, s&p down 12%. huge winner, that's still a big trend, though these topped out

ba banks that's about flat right now, so keep an eye on that. that's half what it is remember, these are really good at extreme this is pretty extreme right now. david, we're out of that trading range. you see that 41.50 to 43.50. we're out of that range. i think the market message is, post-powell, it's too soon to panic about the fed tipping us into some kind of recession. >> bop, thank you. as he we had to break. let's top too moment here and do

the bond report. it figures prominently in a lot of things we've been talking about. you can see the ten-year, that's certainly one week it's moved up keep an eye on the spread well,r note and ten-ier note, it's something people like to watch closely. we are right back after this we are right back after this at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner.

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well we are back after this and your family first. i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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competitor to airbnb thank you. i know that when i google the people at your table, of course, let's just say they seem like -- >> they were very nice i had a great time tell them about the great service. >> we had a great dinner lots of people there i was at the table of honor. >> a lot of hype for stocks doing well today be aware of that here's that piece that you mentioned. >> that's turning positive right there. we will have l aot more on the markets and everywhere else. don't go anywhere. >>

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ameriprise financial. . good friday morning, everybody, welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street" streak we're a half hour into trading a quick look into the markets. there you see, the nasdaq is our one performer in the green so far. data out a few minutes ago rick santelli has that for us. >> yes, david, the leading economic indicators expected to be up .3 of 1% delivered as

expected up .3 of 1% in the rear view mirror the minus .3, which by the way was the first negative reading since february of last year gets down graded to less than half a percent. we are bouncing off that negative read. keep in mind, we are up nearly 20 basis points on the week for two-year notes and 15 basis points on the week for ten-year notes a. big week affecting mortgages and housing and to that, we will get our recent read february 1st, existing home sales from diana olick. >> reporter: they dropped much wider than expected 7.2% in february to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.02 million units according to realtors the expectuations a 6.13 million.

january was revised year over year now the count is the based on closings so homes that went under contract in december and january, mortgage rates were relatively low in december with the average rate 30-year fixed, that rate hose steadily in germany 3.6. 8% at the end of the month another issue, of course, very low supply there were 870,000 homes for sale at the end of february, a 15% year drop. that makes it a 1.7 supply it pushed the median home price in february up 15% from a year ago. sales still strongest above the $750,000 mark and one more number i have to give you with higher prices and today's higher interest rates, a new buyer is now paying 28% more for the same home they could have bought last year morgan. >> holly macaroni.

that have a very big jump. thank you. we are 30 minutes from the trading session. boeing flying on a report that the plane maker is in talks with delta, 137 max 10 jets, what would be if the deal is confirmed? the first in the decade and the first for this family of acre. gamestop, recouping all of its losses it is actually in the green now after a surprise quarterly loss. omicron, supply cane issues hitting results for the key holiday season, revenues did rise again, at a significantly lower pace than the previous three-quarters shares nonetheless are up 5% they're off by almost 75% from their highs of the year, though. finally, fed-ex under pressure the delivery zbrien i giant missing estimates. fed-ex did reaffirm their four-year forecast meantime, shares are down about 4.5% david and mike

>> morning thank you. yeah, let's start off with the markets. they're actually showing a little resilience all morning, the pre-market index as the futures were showing that it was going to be a pull pullback just for context. s&p 500 coming in today up almost 6% in pre-trading days up 5% week-to-date. markets make a bit to say maybe we have enough force behind that rally to be a decent bottom. for a while. but this is exactly where i think that the bulls would have to absorb a little headwind from people who tactically were saying, you know, we can allow for a bounce here we are at a certain level above 4400 i think was on everybody's page for the first hurdle then the fed talk, i thought was interesting. the reaction to the meeting, itself, suggested the market had gotten to that point of seven rate hikes the fed is now anticipating. before the fed acknowledged it

today with governor walers comments front-loading those hikes, 50-point race hikes, the market seems to be okay. it may deal fast initially and pause and wait and see >> morgan, it has been the fifth worst start to the s&p since 1927, reading this note this morning over at j.p. morgan, which seems to have added a bit of impetus perhaps over the last day or so in terms of those thinking it's safe to get into stocks saying fed tightening remains the strongest headwind for the xhichl he believes the markets has the upside >> to mike's point, you have a strong three-day bounce. the dow the best weekly gains since 20s 20 the markets are looking oversold here we are due for a bounce. the question is going to be back to mike's point that you he hit

this key technical level everybody has been watching. are we do for another pullback here if so, the desim is in the details how it speaks to the brolder health of the market as we do have all of these macro-question marks that are swirling and affecting trading on a daily and hourly basis. mike yes, the fed speak is particularly notable this idea of maybe the next hike is a 50 basis point hike do you see more fed officials get on board as we see the feds become increasingly hawkish amid increasingly hot inflation data? >> they have been apprehensive for obvious reasons in the markets. you do have a couple questions about how much of that kind of fearful negative sentiment has been used up with a three-day rally? probably not all of it the volatility index came crashing below it. a decent forward implications for the market you talked about the worst starts of the year, david. the rest of those years are not

uniformly bad. a lot of times they are significant bought to the around the summer of those years. >> triple witching today that will be interesting >> quadruple >> oh, quadruple excuse me we're seeing volatility. >> yeah. >> all right. >> mike mentioned, of course, those commence from waller, the man who brought it to us, brought them to us was steve leishman, the idea of a 50 basis point hike at the may meeting as well steve is here to sort of wrap it all up for us. good morning, steve. >> reporter: okay. david, yeah, maybe a couple of those meetings fed governor waller calling for a much more aggressive series of rate hikes from the federal reserve, assuming limited negative impacts on u.s. economy on the war if you crane. waller said the data is quote screaming at us to raise it 50 basis points he didn't support it because of geopolitical uncertainty

in the future, he can see a series of basis hikes. >> i favor front loading now if we want to have an impact on inflation this year and next year the way to front load sit pull rate hikes forward, which would imply 50 basis points at one or multiple meetings in the near future i just think it's better to have a strategy of just do it on the rate hikes rather than just promises >> waller's comments raised the probability of a 50-point hooic in futures markets from around 35% before he started talking to 52%. it's come down a few points since. i think we will go back and forth on this over the next several weeks with fed comments and the data waller is not obviously at odds with fed chair j. powell he dinot earlier this week waller said he wants to crank rates up to near neutral by the

end of the year to battle inflation. that would mean a 2-to-2.25% rate she talking one or possibly two more hikes this year on the dovish side of all, waller said as mike was summarizing, hiking rates faster can mean fewer rate hikes down the road so you may end up in a better place, morgan, if you get it under control and you get it all done now the question is, is the market prepared for it? >> oh, so many questions we le have to get answered it was a great news interview. thank you. turn u returning to fed-ex shares are lower, profits did rise 25%, revenue rose 10% higher shipping rates, you saw that softer volume due to omicron, which fell squarely in the quarter. you saw higher wages, transportation kocosts, yield offset by a decline in shipping

bemanned and labor availability. they had to close fights because of omicron, declines in labor, pull forward holiday shipping demands. these results, of course, as markets assess the impact of inflation against economic growth here in the u.s., specifically, the resiliency of the consume were so along those lines, here is what fed-ex coo and president had to say on the conference call >> especially as inflation has picked up and, you know, there is obviously consumer spending and federal is already down. it's difficult to forecast in this environment, but i'm going to tell you that the big fear of growth of ecommerce is now behind us and we are planning, you know, in that perspective, we are confident even with the single digit growth, amid high single digit growth, we were talking about on ecommerce, that we were able to generate positive returns going forward

>> very telling. it's an interesting commentary we got on the calm, fed-ex is a key economic bellwether. it moved so many times of goods across so many times of markets. it did lower the economic growth forecast it puts out and talks tight commercial capacity again as spy cane bottlenecks continue it did say, so far, it is not seeing a conflict. the last thing i would note, mike, is that great, which is actually the smallest unit saw the biggest increase in terms of profitability. operating income actually nearly tripled. it speaks to what is moving around and how in the midst of this economic environment right now. >> it's actually been kind of validated by what's been going on, the trucking stops are the strongest in transport it's not because of fed-ex because of its poor performance and low valuations reflecting overall weakness in the movement

of goods it seems a lot of those issues hampering the company specifically have continued for a bit. >> eps shares down a bit as well, obviously, faring far better than fed-ex over the last 12 months. moving on, covid cases and hospitalizations are ticking higher in europe and the united kingdom as pfizer and moderna file for a better booster shots here in the united states. mech. >> reporter: hey, david. over the past several weeks, we seen it higher in germany, switzerland, the netherlands out of uk and france there is concerns, of course, about whether these case increases, experts say are sort of driven by three factors one is waning immunity another is the ticking off interventions and masks. the third is this more contagious omicron ba.2. the concern is that those case upticks could turn into hospitalization updates.

we have seen it happen at least in the uk over the previous two weeks an increase of 31% in hospitalizations there and the issue, of course, is that the u.s. is dealing with all of these same factors as well and we have a lower booster rate than the uk about 48% of eligible folks versus 70% in the uk as for ba.2, that some variant is growing in prevalence in the u.s. as well up to a quarter of cases last week with different prevalence in different regions the most about 40% in the northeast, potentially higher as of last week that is, pictured to take over and potentially cause another surge as least when it comes to cases. that is something we are seeing in the waste water data, as well as models like this one from colombia university, which suggests we might be at a trough in cases right now at about 30,000 per die and they should start to rise through april. of course, weather leads to hospitalization is an on

question that is a metric that the cdc and public health agencies are focused on whether to impose mandates and mitigation measures the question of whether we need another booster coming to the forefront this week, mod na joined pfizer in filing for an additional shot. moderna's is a much broader application saying they've asked for permission to give that dose to everybody 18 plus wanting to leave it to the cdc and healthcare providers to make a decision for whom is appropriate. pfizer and biontech are citing data from israel and the united states as well during the period of omicron soda that has been a little mixed. it does show a benefit for the elderly, for the broader population, though, that is more of an open question. guys >> meg, that's interesting you just said it the data is not clearly showing. i would think it's a relatively small settle i don't know not showing a clear benefit at

this point so could this be a tougher decision for the fda when it comes to the prod population in terms of a report does >> reporter: yeah, the reporting we seen suggested for 65 plus it could be a little more straight forward and happen quickly for the broader population, we will probably see a lot more debate >> i'm sure we will, meg thanks very much as we head to a quick break. here's a look at our road map for the rest of the hour the s&p trying for its best week since november of 2020 why one of our guests is forecasting a 60% drop if valuations ahead plus, president biden is speaking with chinese president xi jinping that's going on right now. of course. they are discussing the conflict in ukraine we will have the latest from psychotic this hour. finally, don't miss the ceo of the launch company astra space on the heels of its first

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it has been a volatile few days for bitcoin, though now i am paced to end the week above 40,000 again you see it there, actually 41,000 scrutiny for the space following the conflict in ukraine and the possibility of multiple rate hikes ahead, so where can kris

crypto be headed from here joining us jill guenther good morning >> hi, great to be back. >> good to speak with you. looking back, crypto really we have no history or good history of how the market might respond to a full fed tightening cycle if, in fact, that's a inconinference. do you actually think it's a key influence on crypto these days >> oh, absolutely. i mean, crypto remains as with so many other asset classes probably influenced by the macro. and as we look at this tightening cycle, one of the big questions is, is crypto and bitcoin, specifically, going to trade in line with gold, an inflation hedge? it has a thesis around it. so far we seen it trade in line

with risk. personally, my view is we will see that continuing to per sith. i think the market is not at base of maturity to de couple crypto assets within the asset class, itself, and to view bitcoin separately as the inflation hedge. >> so if it is now behaving largelies a a risk asset seeing maybe a similar pool of the investor base as is driving other things like the nasdaq and other tech stocks, do you think that means that there is more downside shakeouts to come or are we going to have to track the nasdaq >> yeah, well, look, obviously, we seen risks react with powell's comments this week. you know, looking at a very measured approach relative to what he could have said, of course, when it comes to the tightening cycle here. and i think that that's important to note that that short-term reaction. but i do think that longer-term, the risk is the downside, you

look at the last mini hiking cycle we saw over the course of 2017-2019. over that period, we saw bitcoin breach the all-time highs of 20k and so a prolonged period where bitcoin traded down around $3,000 in price. that was a painful situation for the market i don't think we've seen anything like that yet on the crypto side. >> no, certainly not just in terms of the regulatory influences, of course, we've all digested biden's administration executive order last week. ubs trying to suggest that order was maybe a little less friendly to the industry than it had initially been taking pointing out the first three bullet of seven points, imliss it activity, things like that what has been your take on what that's going to mean down the

road for potential restrictions in that area >> look. all regulatory collar why it is good for the industry right now. for two long theby is has had to operate in this sort of shadowy area where it's not quite clear who the regulatory bodies are, why enforcement action is going to be taken with with regards to what projects, whether that's going to be enforcement regulation by elicit finance, the sec. but what's important to remember is that crypto has all along been regulated none of this is particularly new. what is being offered by that executive order is above all going to be clarity and i think that's a very good thing for the market similarly, when it comes to consumer protection, if you look back at the history of any new technologies, whether railroads, ipo boom, two decades ago, you have always had fraudsters,

scammers, drifters, coming into those markets and crypto is no different and consumer protection is a very important thing. so i view all of that as a positive for vote society at large, also, frankly, for the good actors in the industry who have had to make their ways through owl of this noise over the last decades the industry existed. >> so some rules that everybody knows probably would be good thing. jim, thanks very much. >> thank you >> well, after the break, lawmakers have been making a series of stock investment bets from defense to chinese technology stocks that just might surprise you although, maybe not anymore, since we told you. we will give you the details don't go anywhe.er

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we want to get you the first readout on that conversation between president biden and president xi

this is according to keepese state media quoted by reuters, xi telling wide than state-to-state relations cannot advance to a stage of confrontation going on to say the conflicts and confront eights are not in the interests of anyone, also saying the ukraine crisis is something we don't want to see and telling them, biden that china and the u.s. must guide by lateral relations, this is chinese state media quoted by reuters. we're going to get more from eunice yoon shortly, a little more background and analysis. sttrades have been scrutinyn capitol hill what are they trading? elon moy crunched the data and has that story for us. >> reporter: david, congress has a particularly conflicted relationship with china on the one hand, capitol hill is growing more hawkish as geopolitical tensions rise, but lawmakers and their families actively trade chinese stock,

even those critical of beijing republican michael mccaul is the ranking member of the house foreign affairs committee and chairman of the chine task force party. yesterday he called on tougher restrictions on semi conductors and warns a coordination between beijing and moscow he has reported the highest value of chinese trade of any member of congress his financial disclosures show they were carried out by his wife and child we estimating the activity at 3.6 million. ali baba has not answered requests for comment he is not alone. our cnbc data estimates that congress traded 30.6 million in chinese stocks and funds, that including republicans and democrats and spouses and their children now, in the run-up to the russian invasion of ukraine,

there was only one chinese trade reported so far. a scale of ali baba by representative james langevin marjorie taylor green tweeted this war and rumors of war is incredibly profitable and 53 she later disclosed she bought lockheed, chevron a day earlier. after spokesman for green said her investments are handled by an outside adviser she said she did not know about these trades until she read about it in the media. back to you. >> it never fails to blow my mind here. i realize it's perfectly legal and above board, because it's lawmakers who actually make these laws, which brings me to my question to you, elon, where do we stand son some of these laws actually trading. no you have trades executed by family members, do those laws go far enough until we see them

become reality >> yes so the house is supposed to have a hearing on just this issue around potential band of law maker trading this week. that has been postponed because of one member getting covid, so we'll see when that is rescheduled, but to your point, right now, what we have mainly is disclosures of these trades but the disclosures take a long time to come out that i do include family members, like spouzs, independent children so a lot of the debate is who should be covered by a potential trading ban. should it be a member, themselves should it move ahead and include spouses and incidents, too that's certainly the debate. as we see, there are plenty of family members who are actively trading and investing and how much that impacts the law maker remains to be seen >> this doesn't feel very pre-market economy to me i'm just saying. elon moy, you have been doing great reporting on this.

thank you for the latest our next guest,a 60% breakdown valuation. we'll find out why after the break. energy stocks up big to start the year >> competition beat us again. how? they have a better finance system than we do. i feel like they might have a better finance system than we do. workday. how do they make better decisions faster? workday. it's got to be something workday. i think i got something. work... hey, rob, you're on mute. hello! hey, rob, there he is. workday. the finance, hr and planning system for a changing world.

. welcome back i'm rahel solomon. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. the russian attacks are expanding. they have targeted the airports. attacks can be seen throughout the city more strikes are reported on the outskirts of the capital kiev. in mariupol at least 230 people survived at that theater serving as a bomb shelter. the fate of another 1,300 unknow. multiple wild fairs. containment is 2% in the small

town of ranger a church and several downtown buildings burned overnight overseas, they voted to end most of the covid restrictions, taking new cases to nearly 300,000 per day. germany's health minister says they cannot complete covid rules to protect a small amount of people willing to get vaccinated they are rolling back their restrictions so the time is upon us i'll send it back to you. >> definitely a shift. rahel solomon, thank you a whopping 60% decline in the u.s. stock valuations. that could be on the horizon, according to a recent report setting the russia-ukraine war inflation is the primary causes. but where are the winners in this scenario? the global macrodirector, great to have you on, vincent. i will start with this recent report you put out you say every important financial and economic matter

will be affected be think war, meaning this invasion of russia into ukraine right now how do you see this rippling out both in the near term and the long term? >> i know we can do is howepe fr peace and spirit but that, unfortunately, doesn't seem to be the likely task the likely outcome is a conflict ukraine says there is a conflict 40 million people are oppressed. they are occupied. so this will disrupt the lives of the ukrainian people. not only will it disrupt the local economy. you look at any commodity, you will see the reports affect as you mentioned the needs are very high on this

do global prices and eventually geopolitical consequences and so this will not go away rapidly. >> so one of the things you've compiled data for the military misery index it's through that data that your thesis operates u.s. stock valuations could drop by 60% walk me through it >> this is not the price for gas. it's based on you bake ten years of invested earnings and divide the price at this ratio. so forecasts for a time, this could fall by 50%. it doesn't mean the price. one thing that can happen is the earnings and some of that would happen naturally as we see the

way depression is in the window, the multiple, we are expecting 55% in growth, but this is, indeed the experience we have in the facility we are set up in the '60s. we had no interest rates and got into this era of high inflation. wars, the vietnam war and spending and 15 years, you just did an addition of u.s. stocks fall from 30 to 10 today we're at 5 we get inflation, 4% that model tells us we should get the ratio. and we have to increase spending

result >> vincent, because are you running that model since 1960, in effect, all it really does is give you what happened in the 1970s when those conditions were mostly in place, correct, or the inflation plus the military spending you also have yields much higher than at current levels obviously, after '74 they were from 7-to-10% on yields well off that into the early '80s so would you say that the bond market is that mispriced right now? or are we still operating in a mode where inflation still could be really just kind of a window in time that's going to be just a couple of years? >> i would say if i were to -- where it is right now, we are in the 70 we had an interesting moment in

the late '60s where inflation was picking up as the vietnam war was building as the gold window was starting to empty self and the bull markets, there was victory. i mean, this is why we started stripping out oil from the sky while we are not raising interest rates because everything is up everything today, we went through in the '70s. it's a process that takes time and we are near inning and, indeed, as we point out, the crucial behavior, this is how equities are priced. this is why so far most of the shock can be from zero to two in the yield. >> thank you for joining us

to today. >> president biden just finishing a call with chinese president xi jinping eunice yoon is in beijing for us, i believe. we've gotten statements out of chinese state media. we'd love to get your take on what they mean and in anyway change the nature of what we believe the chinese view of this incursion by russia into ukraine is >> reporter: so far nothing in that statement that so far has come out, really jumps out at me as saying that the relationship is going to change over, what's interesting here is this chinese state media was very quick to release information ability the talks and it's something we are seeing more and more where beijing through its state media is trying to jump ahead of the americans to shape the narrative and reframe the discussion here.

so state media has been showcasing, of course, president dpi as the statesman here telling president biden that the ukraine crisis is something that china didn't want to see that xi had told biden that state-to-state relation cannot advance to the state of confrontation that the chinese president told president biden that china and the u.s. must guide the ties between them to the right track and that both parties need to shoulder their international responsibilities from beijing's perspective that means that the u.s. needs to be the one to take responsibility for what china sees as being the initiator of the ukraine crisis what is interesting, chinese state media quoted an unnamed china official saying president

xi was going to press a couple issues that president xi wanted to tell president biden that cone would never accept u.s. threats and coercion and would retaliate against u.s. measures hand the that final point that china would demand the u.s. recognize its own role as an initiator in the crisis. he was supposed to press biden to hon for his word. they would not speak a conflict or regime change and the u.s. does not support the independence of taiwan which as you guy will all know is an island beijing claims as its own. so the u.s. ahead of time has been signaling that president biden was going to be the one to talk tough, to president xi. to warn president xi if there was any concrete support for russia, that would go beyond

just the ret torhetorical there will be costs, potentially economic costs but china has been trying to bush back against this idea the u.s. and the west can tell coin what to do guys >> all right eunice, i am curious if you are picking up anything or are aware of anything in terms of what was said about that possibility of concrete support for russia or whether, in fact, xi was willing to say we will not offer concrete support or is it going to be this concrete surprise for us >> reporter: i think we're going to have to what it to see if more discussions come out. so far that has not been released not much of a surprise, given that china has repeatedly denied that it has been asked by the

russians for military gear that china would accept that kind of idea at teams even though china has been trying to present itself as neutral and saying it is not in line when it comes to ukraine and this situation, that we did find out that in the past couple of days, one of the diplomats met with the ambassador and the state media said was anti-terrorist activities and, of course, the state media had been quite pro-russia and amplifying russian talking points so, the game plan really here has been that china wants to support russia, wants to nurture that close relationship and the anti-west relationship that it has for the long term. while at the same time trying to make itself look as it's objective, it's neutral, so as

not to disrupt those important economic ties that it has with the u.s. and europe. >> as important as they are, eunice yoon, we are awaiting our side so-to-speak the u.s. readout from that conversation kayla tausche may join us at some point soon to give us that. in the meantime, the s&p was in positive territory but falling a bit now as you see with the dow as well, though the nasdaq still holding up quite well we are back after isth you can't buy love. happiness. or confidence. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. ♪ ♪

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all right. it's time for our etf spotlight. we take a look at the vanguard growth the ticker is down 11% over the last three months. as we well know have seen a lot of pressure. core holdings are snap, twitter,

meta, although seeing big gains this week, they're up as much as 12-to-15% since monday it's been a consequential week for the turn around. as well, check out the move in bullble up 35% this week and as much as 57% since early march. it did have a positive earnings report or responded positively by the markets all of those names have been cut in half or more since they saw their highs, snap and bullble still off some 60% from their peak and twitter and meta not far behind that morgan. >> well, fetch off a successful orbital mission. the ceo of launch company astra space another name seeing stock under pressure in recent months is coming ub next respects plus, new comments from bill nelson on the space partnerships with russia don't go anywhere. lson on the ss

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the cosmonauts and astronauts are getting along as usual. today marks a significant event because three cosmonauts will launch from kazakhstan to the international space station. the cooperation in civil space as opposed to military space, that cooperation continues and we expect it to continue >> that was nasa administrator bill nelson speaking to me this morning. and batting down the questions of the future of that civil space partnership between the u.s. and russia in the midst of this on going conflict in ukraine, which partnership includes the international space

station. that came after some twitter comments from his counterpart at the russian space agency joining me now is chris kemp on the heels of astra's successful mission. congrats on the mission. from an industry standpoint, the fact that you are able to assess that recent failure about a month ago, make changes and complete this orbital launch this week, how were you able to do it, and so quickly? not getting any sound. there we go. >> sorry about that. we have an incredible amount of data from each of the flights and our team worked hard to piece together and address the

issue which was pretty straightforward. we flew again and had complete mission success. we delivered 22 satellites for several customers earlier this week >> it took about an hour for you to confirm those satellites had been deployed successfully the stock traded around heavy volume why did it take so long? >> as the launch, the satellites are talking to ground stations we had to wait for the satellite to reach the next ground station off of hawaii and report back. as we started to see the satellites call home and report back, wiese wanted to be conservative and only provide an update once we heard the satellites were safe and delivered to orbit >> how is astra expecting to do more missions the rest of the

year >> we are manufacturing about one rocket per month ours last one was 33 days ago. that makes two out of three launches successful. we have a tropics mission which will help people understand hurricanes and hopefully save lives in the hurricane season by giving early warnings to evacuate and cape canaveral, that will be starting up. >> you were supposed to report earnings bell yesterday, those were pushed back two weeks why? >> we had a change in filing status we had to update our 10-k, so we will be doing earnings report on march 31st >> i want to get your take -- we heard those comments from nasa administrator nelson, but there has been impacts from this

ukraine conflict where relationships between the u.s. and russia are concerned around space flights. how do you expect this to impact capacity and launch demand for a company such as yourself >> on the commercial side of things, we had a workhorse for commercial launches and delivery what we now understand is that capacity is no longer available to a lot of our customers. we are seeing a big increase in demand for launches. we are planning on putting satellites in orbit from the platform there was already a supply constrain market we have over 50 launches and we are working hard to make more launches happen as soon as possible there is now even more demand. from our perspective, one of the most important things we can do is get them as quick as possible to help our customers get to

space. >> thanks for joining us the stock is up about 4% now a reminder you can get more space by following the squawk on the street podcast guys >> we all do morgan, we are going to spend time on the market mike, we've obviously made the point it's been a very strong week even some of those high growth names that got beat up, and i just did this while doing the spotlight, have had a very strong rebound rivian, for example. and now up $44, up for the week. >> up almost 25% from the low. that's the proxy it is not going to necessarily dissuade folks who said this is

a short rally. we got too stretched and people got too bearish and this is a tactical move to say we got relief in the short-term you don't often get that 6%, three-day bump checking off some of the boxes for those who say we at least had a temporary low in place right now. i think a lot of the action that demands attention is continually in the bond market morgan, you talk about the two-year note, that fills in a lot of rates as the low is down around 2.15. can it get up to 2% and what does this mean for a potential economic slowdown? >> so much focus over the state of the yield curve how it will react.

sectors up 6%. tech i would note, it's a strong week for all of the major averages we are on pace for big gains even the s&p and dow are on pace for gains for march. it's been a big change this week, david. >> so far it has there is a lot more to go even today. that is going to do it for us here on squawk on the street ♪ >> welcome to tech check carl is off today. bottom's up. a top strategist saythe