dr. j, your final trade? >> boston scientific bsx. the surgical sales and cardiovascular, love the company. >> we have the best week of stocks since november 20th see what happens between now and "over time". we'll see you then "the exchange" is now. thank you. hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange" headlines from the fed and stocks keep rallying and governor christopher waller saying inflation is raging the fed has to get more aggressive and now markets are pricing a higher chance of a half point rate hike next meeting. >> the dow and s&p having the best week since november 20th. the nasdaq up 9% from monday's close. we'll hear from someone who says

you might want to sell this rally. and the stocks most appealing to youngest investors. our trader picks two names with a bright future and two past their prime. first, let's go to bob with the latest on today's market rally. >> kelly, best of the week for the s&p since november 2020. as you mentioned, it's being led higher by technology stocks. we had a great week with big cap tech salesforce is up 9%. apple is up 4% or 5% microsoft is rallying. you can see that intel is on the up side. but it's choppy trading and a lot of stuff is still not really participating. so banks, for example, you know, it's been a real problem here with the flat yield curve. two-year going up. ten-year not going up so much. this is giving it the big super regional banks like zions a tough time this week that's been very choppy. kind of in the middle are energy stocks they've had the big run on the year, but even they topped out

about a week ago they had been an up trend recently so the big names, the most -- moved most on data, devin, those kinds of stocks schlumberger, for example, all on the up side. so just look at the broad trend. it's really, really choppy the last few weeks look at the broad trend. generally value is killing it. value is on flat for the year. that's mostly energy stocks. but they're really up nicely if you take a look at that. growth is underperforming and technology stocks aren't doing as well. commodity is the big winner. if you look at the inves koe commodity index, commodity futures basket yx that's moving. up about 30% xle the energy sector up about 25%. look at the s&p 500. i want to point this out to everybody. we are on a complete round trip compared to one month ago. we bottomed february 24th. that was the day of the actual invasion, but we were moving lower the week prior on concerns

about that so we've gone completely round trip and you want to know what's going on this week i think the message post powell, post fomc meeting overall is it's a little too soon to panic about the fed tipping us into some kind of recession later in the year powell seems to have quieted that talk down, and that seems to be the main reason for this rally in the second half of the week >> great point, bob. we're going to pick up right there. bob, we appreciate it. t friday so let's take a quick look at -- a gut check on the economic data we've gotten this week the good and the ugly. let's start with the ugly. that's going to be this retail sales report that we got the core measure up only up 2% but this is after a strong spending number in january, and this is data point number two. consumer spending intentions from the new york fed, we talked about this earlier this week hit a fresh record high back to 2013 so even though consumer

sentiment has been pretty weak, you actually see people spending and saying they're going to keep spending quite substantially okay also in the good camp, jobless claims they fell again last week. that was new claims. the continuing claim series, it's like a four-week average at a 52-year low. so no wonder chair powell repeatedly talked about the strong labor market this week. and this one doesn't get as much attention, but industrial production, important to point out we keep chugging along manufacturing was strong last month despite a slump in auto production and total kpas capacity utilization rose and higher than prepandemic. a lot in the good category maybe a little too good. let's talk about the data point on everybody's minds today it's this rebound in inflation expectations here you see them collapsing after the super hawkish fed meeting on wednesday then they popped right back up to about 3.45 %. that's today

it's also compares with under 3% back in january. so a huge increase here in where the market thinks inflation is going to be over the next five years. now, on that note, the fed governor told our steve liesman this morning he thinks a half point hike may be needed next meeting. >> i favor front loading the rate hikes that we need to do more withdrawal of accommodation now if we want to have an impact on inflation later this year and next year. so in that sense, the way to front load it is to pull rate hikes forward this would imply 50 basis points at one or multiple meetings in the near future i just think it's better to have a strategy of just do it on the rate hikes rather than just promise it >> all right the nike strategy. joining me now is john taylor, professor of economics at stanford university. also a senior fellow at the hoover institution it's great to have you here. and where do you think the fed should be taking -- i mean, they were hawkish on wednesday to

powell's credit. it's been interesting to watch the fed appreciate that and inflation -- >> what are your thoughts? >> i think they moved in the right direction, but not enough. they really have to move, and i think the comments you just heard replayed are maybe another couple .5s will bring us close to 3 at the end of the year. now they're close to 2 i think a little more is necessary. i think it's a very important, because getting behind the curve in the past and in the future will be very damaging. so we don't want that to happen. >> we're talking about and the consensus is starting to sort of come around to the idea that the fed is going to 2 % or 3%. and yet, the ten-year treasury is trading last i saw under 2.2% so you're telling me they're going to take the overnight rate above that level possibly in the next 6 to 12 months? what's the long-end telling us >> well, the long end is telling us they don't know they're thinking what various people were saying to the fed,

what the fed will do one commentary was unusual i think it's not clear will they move above this 1.9 which is what i was telling you i think it would be healthier, and i think the markets will react positively i think the economy will react positively you're seeing that already in the stock market i think it would be a positive benefit to moving a little bit more now and therefore, less necessary later? >> do you sort of agree with the larry summers take from earlier this week. and again, he's been critical of the fed for being behind the curve. he now thinks they risk sending the u.s. into stagflation or a recession. what do you make of his comments >> well, that's always the risk of being behind the curve. behind, you eventually have to catch up or inflation will go bananas. he's reflecting experience we saw this in the 70s, and it was -- a terrible time

i think that's common sense. that's what we're learning and hopefully the people at the fed will pay attention to the statements coming from larry and others for that matter. >> why do you think it is that a pandemic has unleashed such a lasting shift in the labor market >> i think it's basically very unusual, and people are getting used to it people are working at home they're not working. they're doing different things i think we have to realize it's going to be a new world in many dimensions we're using the internet more. we're using telecommunications more i think it's going to be different, but i think we'll learn how to deal with it. in the meantime, we don't want to just let inflation go, because that could be very damaging the hope is if there's some adjustments now a little more than what's in the cards, that it will be a more successful recovery a smoother one that's -- we don't want another one of these rashes again which would be harmful >> the fed chair when he was

asked about his respect for volker in congress he was clear he has huge respect for him. he made it clear if they need to hike more than a quarter point, they will do that. so i just want to kind of end back on this point about the markets and why they don't seem to be taking that at face value. >> to do the markets know something the fed doesn't about the economy slowing or why else might they believe the fed would be as hawkish as you're describing? >> the guidelines are not that hawkish. they're quite low by the end of the year and into next year. so you haven't seen this change. let me say the fed took out the references to policy rules in the last report. i think that was kind of a shock. and now they're thinking of putting that back in jay powell said don't worry, we'll put them back in in the future it's important because those rules have been a good guideline and when the fed davuates them,

the biggest deviation we've seen is right now so getting back to this i call rules-based policy, but call it what you want, we're in a better situation. >> and where would your rules say the fed should be right now? >> about five. >> 5%? >> yes >> is there any reason why they shouldn't take that at face value? >> yes yes. let's get to 3 at the end of this year, and still under 2 see how it goes. but if they delay, you know, the -- there's been lots of adjustment even the 5 is taking into account work that john williams has done which is a lower equilibrium rate it's taking into account the different situation in the economy. it's taking into account that possibly inflation will come down it's taking into account that some of the increases in inflation we've seen recently are related to ukraine and russia, what's happening all those things say well, let's get to 3 at the end of this year and then i think it will probably be a little more than

that before we're done, but we'll have to see. >> absolutely fascinating. john, thank you for your time today. >> thank you >> we appreciate it. if you're surprised by how strong the market has held up to the hawkish fed talk this week, maybe you shouldn't be my next guest says historically fed tightening has been been bad for markets. the co-founder of bespoke investment group i don't know, paul, if we were talking about john taylor hawkish, that's a different story. >> that would be a much different story, and so that's part of the point. what the fed did this week is they basically moved up to what the market expectations were so sure, was it hawkish relative to the fed yes, but the market was pricing in a certain level of rates and moves going forward, and that's basically what we got. i think that is one thing to focus on and then going out to the end of this year, rates will be relatively low given the economic circumstances >> what about the fact that it might be different this time,

because we're not in an economic environment like we were after the financial crisis obviously maybe we have to go back to something a few decades prior to that for a similar inflation landscape. >> yes, so it's always different this time, and i think to your point, you know, you look back the median game during a fed tightening cycle is going back to 1994 is about 6%. we've cone that this week. on that point you can say we're already there. but i think it's always different this time. there's also a lot of things going on in the market right now that are a lot -- that are going to play out and have an impact on what fed policy is. ben bernanke once said forecasting the economy is like working on a car with the engine running. this is more like on apollo 13 mission. trying to play with the tools you have, and get out smoothly so i think there's a lot to

focus on here. and no one really knows how this is going to play out here. we're in unchartered territory but what we do is rather than give our opinions, we'll focus on what the market is telling us and the market is pretty comfortable with what's come out this week. >> yeah. >> four straight days of nasdaq 1% gains after a 52-week low that's only happened one other time, back in 1980 so when you just have back to back to back 1% gains following 52-week low, returns have been pretty good for the market while short-term, you've seen volatility looking at 6 to 12 months, you the end to see more improved returns and things getting back on track >> and i like what you're saying here about energy and technology you know, and here's something that's unique. typically those sectors both do well in post gains of more than 20% in a tightening cycle, but obviously right now technology is sitting this one out.

>> yeah. well, technology since the fed hiked has done great in the last three days but so it's interesting, because those are the two best performing sectors but this year they've been more correlated than probably any other point in history every day that energy goes up, tech goes down and vice versa. what we're looking at in this market in the short-term is we're the ending to focus on when things start to get a little ahead of themselves, lighten up, and then things start to be too beaten down, to dip in and add some exposure so the technology sector two names that look interesting in the middle of the week were qualcomm and broadcom. they're not the highest great semi conductor names, but they paid pretty good dividends they're somewhat insulated from a major swing. and the dividends are pretty safe with these companies. they have the earnings to support those dividends, so i think if you're taking somewhat

of a conservative approach at exposure, they look interesting. >> there's something intriguing. you're right look at technology over the past several sessions including the session after the fed's hike do you think that maybe we could be seeing a repeat of history where technology performs pretty well, and kind of puts behind it the terrible start to the year that it's had? >> yes, that's a great question. so i mean, we got to the rate hike, but everybody knew what was coming wednesday from the federal reserve. they knew the rate hike was going to be. we were going to get more hawkish outlook in the summary of economic projections. the market priced a lot of that in so we had one of the worst starts to the year for the u.s. equity market in history and we had one of the worst starts for technology. historically when you see those for the first two and a half months of the year, four returns have been better

so the market does the end to price those things in. they were oversold heading into this week. you know, you want to step in when things are getting to extreme levs but right here after four straight days of 1% gains, hold on and make sure the downturn trends are broken before you get the benefit of the doubt more to that rally >> love the perspective, historical perspective we appreciate it >> thank you all right. coming up, higher rates have started weighing on housing. according to last month's data where we saw home sales take a dip in the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage now at 4 .5%. will it spoil the spring selling season we'll is ask the ceo of caldwell banker next. ahead we'll tell you the names driving the gains and the ones our trader likes for the longer run as we head to break, a check

on markets at session highs. that's a 25-point gain for the dow. but there's the nasdaq once again up more than 1% as we were just discussing. we're back in a moment ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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the prior month. they're down about 2.5% from a year ago mortgage rates were hovering around 3.25% rates have been on the rise. now they're around 4.5%. how much should we expect it to dent the housing market? joining me is the ceo of caldwell banker. it's great to have you it's the best of times and i guess the best of times for dr -- you don't have a lot of inventory, and a lot of people feel like they can't afford to get into a house do we need this correction >> i think home demand buyer demand is incredibly strong. the most common reaction i've seen so far from buyers to rates ticking up is i hope this keeps other people home. so i'll have less competition in bidding. we have multiple offers. demands outstripping supply.

homes are only on the market for 18 days. that's the biggest driver. it's not as though no one is elling more than 6 million transactions are taking place once they put the listing on, it's only about 2.weeks. >> how does the 18 days compare with normal, and where was it at the low point or is 18 days the low point? >> we're close to the low. we flirted with 17 days but 17 to 19 range is where we've been for a little while that's historic lows typically we're looking at twice or more than that in a more balanced market. you used to have the time to be able to go and view a number of houses maybe a week from now or set up appointments. now you need to strike while the iron is hot. when you do, you're going to be informed about an opportunity and need to be well prepared and have your financing lined up and be able to make the strongest possible offer to step into that home it's a competitive market. but again, more than 6 million homers are winning in that market every year and we're at

the rate today it can be done >> the quandary is well illustrated in the existing homes report this morning. not a ton of inventory or not a ton of available inventory it turns over quickly. and yet, home prices are going up we have home prices still going up mortgage rates now higher. so the affordability issue is getting worse before anybody might hope it gets better. >> there's affordability challenges relative to the very most recent past relative a month ago related to rates. but keep in mind, affordability has still increased in many areas because of internal migration. for the most part the moves happening today are oftentimes individuals who are accelerating moves to perhaps lower costs destinations accelerating a move we're going to make in five or ten years as they plan for retirement you have areas like a lot of the largest multifamily players are reporting that even though they increased their rental rates, the affordability of their units relative to the income of the

residence has increased as they're migrating around the country. there's still an opportunity to step into a more affordable home even though prices have increased. and some real wage growth as well >> you answered the question i asked the economist john taylor last segment why did the pandemic a temporary phenomenon unleash this lasting change in the labor market and your answer about housing suggests what changed. do you think people will be able to continue this kind of work from home trend that started or are we going to run into, and i wonder about this with with a lot of people, a boomerang effect where they feel like they have to or need to or they have to get back to the jobs in the bigger markets and this didn't turn out to be sort of the lasting change they were hoping? >> there's magic that happens when people are together there's pretty much believe we've converted our head quarters for a price for people to work together not just to show up and do so low work every

day. i also think employers are perhaps permanently moving to a place where in a competitive labor economy, you have to allow for flexibility. even if someone has a workplace three days a week, that's a big difference from five and may allow them to move 20 minutes out on the train line, more by car. that allows them to step into more affordable housing if that's what they're looking for. we also have cold well banker launched the dream campaign focussed on individuals going and being able to compare different cities and sort of dream with some data and ultimately with an agent what it's like to compare where i'm living today versus the future the response has been overwhelming there are people saying if i can work a little more remotely, why don't i work where i love? >> now he's going to be watching basketball i'm going to be looking at your dream data or whatever you're calling it ryan, we really appreciate you giving us a sense on the ground still of what's happening. thauj for your time.

-- thank you for your time >> always a pleasure >> the ceo of caldwell banker. still ahead, it's the first triple witching day to the year when three different sets of futures and options expire on the same way we'll look at the contracts and what they may signal about the rally. first, as another wave of covid on its way to the u.s. we'll bring you the latest on cases and hospitalizations in europe, and what health officials are saying about the omicron sub variant that's gaining steam across the country. , our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪ (vo) some bonds last a lifetime.

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201-point loss to a gain of about 69 let's check on the sectors for the week consumer discretionary, tech, and financials the biggest outperformers. again, if you missed it, a great chat about technology up 7%. even beating the financials. energy having the worst week of the year down about 4 % wti holding above $100 a barrel. down 5% since monday you can see the names there. on the flip side, the semi conductors are set to end the week higher. is smh flirting with the best week in a year and a half. every component is lower for 2022 and drk with the best week ever. let's look at the top five holdings names like roku, zoom, and coin base, and netflix is also set to snap a five-week losing streak shares down about 4% for the month of march and they're on pace for the fifth straight month of declines the worst losing streak since

the year it went public in 2002. again, a strong week against what's been a difficult several months let's get a cnbc news update here's what's happening at this hour. at the u.n. security council russia's ambassador again accusing ukraine of having a buy logical weapons program supported by the u.s the u.s. ambassador denounced russia for using the u.n. forum to in her words, spread its propaganda to justify the brutal attack on ukraine. >> we know this because it's a well-worn play book. just one week ago they convened the council under precisely the name pretenses and we heard a litany of bombastic and preposterous lies. >> the private jet used by a russian oligarch is one of nearly 100 boeing airplanes the u.s. says are being effectively grounded

the congress is warning any refueling, maintenance or replacement of the plane is a violation of rules and banning discrimination -- the legislation says that people of african dissent is deprived of educational and employment opportunities for wearing natural or protective hair styles long overdue washington debates whether the u.s. needs to spend billions for hyper so i-- piper sonic weapons. the next gej 50 index. it's on pace for the best week in a year. this name is the best performer. up 36% just since monday we'll ve inerealt xt ♪ ♪ hey, i get it, commitment can be scary. but not when you're saving up to 15% with subscribe and save at amazon.

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welcome back the rally in growth names pushing the next gen 50 inexdup. names are geared from tech to cannabis, crypto and more. this week's top performers

include a covid vaccine maker and dating app we have two buys and sells from the group. gina sanchez is with us. gina, great to see you let's start with lemonade, the online insurance platform. they're up 36% this week that was our mystery chart into the week all state announced hiking insurance rates to offset inflation rates but you're not a fan of the stock >> not quite yet i think part of their rally just has to do with the fact that the fed didn't come out with a 50-basis point hike. i think that that was just a little bit of relief growth stocks have been getting destroyed. and this is a company that is so early in the growth story. i mean, they're just getting -- they're growing their signups. they're increasing their premiums but the inside they've expanded too quickly. they're bleeding cash. activists call for the replacement of the ceo internally it's a little bit of

a mess that's not to say the story isn't there, but they really need to get their act together >> they're up 4% today but a lot of the issues you highlighted have been a concern for the stock for some time. what about bumble? i mean, this one is more straightforward i guess as a business model, but it's also up 30% this week. what's your take avoid it here? >> well, bumble is one of those stories i don't hate it. but i don't love it either because you have to ask yourself can i do without this product? can the world do without this product? and i'm not sure this is one of those that's a must have but they are executing their growth strategy. and so it is doing what they said they were going to do and from that perspective, if you are willing to take some risk, this could be interesting. the problem that you have is that rising rate environment, and it's going to discount it looks reallyovervalued righ now. >> okay. but a lot of -- it's funny a lot of the arguments could be head winds for the whole space

high multiple, high growth stocks that have come down to earth. there's a couple names in the group that you have kind of warmed up to the first is square or sorry, i guess i should call them block why do you think this one could be a better bet for the long run? >> this is interesting because this is a company that's been around for a while. in fact, they had to fend off an amazon attack in 2014. and so this is one of those companies that has really made a space -- it's made a nish for itself it's growing earnings. and yes, it is -- it looks a little overvalued, but i think the fundamental story is very strong and it's not going away and so from that litmus test or can the world survive without this, i think there are a lot of small mom and pop businesses that are enabled by square/block in order to run their businesses that i think that this is here to stay. and it's a stock you should consider >> all right so that's the case for

square/block what about for moderna i wouldn't say i'm surprised to say you warm up. the valuation reset has been striking but it does -- doesn't it still have this sort of pandemic on pandemic off kind of trading environment to worry about >> so fair point this is definitely one of those pandemic darlings that then just got taken out behind the shed and shot and so what you have to ask yourself is is there more to the story than the pandemic? and they do have, actually, a pipeline, and they're really cheap. and the market right now doesn't -- the market is looking for growth looking for growth at a reasonable price but it's also warming up to value and it has been for the last year just because we're expecting rates to go up and you look at the product pipeline, and one of their big products is going to be another flu vaccine, and the move for covid vaccines is that they are likely going to become

incorporated into flu vaccines that could put moderna in a front runner for a vaccine that's massively subscribed to and has enormous growth. i think they're cheap right now relative to what their opportunity set is >> all right so two bails from the cnbc next gen 50 thank you for your time today. we appreciate it gina sanchez up next, shares of apple are up higher despite supply chain snarls china shutting down cities because of covid we'll look at the dependence on the asian supply and should americans will readying for another covid spike and what authabo tt fourth vaccine dose that's coming up on "the exchange". ♪ ["fly me to the moon"] ♪ ♪ ♪

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welcome back the covid shutdowns in china are reexposing one of apple's vulnerabilities and that's the dependence on the asian supply

chains steve is here with more now. steve, will this time convince them to diversify or is this company almost too big to diversify? >> they're locked into china tim cook was asked that question about a month and a half ago and they said are you okay having all the supply chain locked into china and basically said yeah, it's great for us. we have the suppliers geographically close to where we build and sell we can go from ship to factory and out the door quickly that's why they're okay with it. and let's rewind back to 2020 when the entire countryof chin was shut down and everybody was worried about manufacturing. guess how long their new iphone was delayed? just a month they're resilient. >> it's funny. we focus on this concern, but it's more a concern about a possible concern than a story where look at what's happened with the auto industry that's a more obvious hit. why is it that they've been able

to move so quickly is it because we just showed the map of the different areas of the manufacturing hubs they have >> kagain, it's the how close they are and also fox con, the company apple contracts to build most of the devices, especially iphones are nimble what they did this week is said we show shenzhen shutdown. we're going to move it to a city not shut down and make up for it there, and then we'll adjust back when things open up again they're able to be dynamic and nimble as they need to be among the shutdowns. >> what are the analysts saying? are they expressing any real concern? >> not really. as soon as the shenzhen thing came out, a couple analyst notes came out saying this is a concern. but let's not panic about it yet. >> kwlae and to your point, they've been down this read before, and if the worst we're talking about is a one-month delay to a new phone, do you think that's the worst case scenario? >> if -- it's not as bad as

2020 if it's just the one-week shutdowns a little bit at a time and at the same time, they are diversifying outside of china a little bit air pods, i should have brought mine with me, but on the back, it says made in vietnam. one made in malaysia, computers made in austin, texas. they're dabbling around the world where they can >> great point steve, thank you all right. let's dive deeper into the supply chain distruptions with someone with firsthand knowledge about what's going on in china the ceo of sourcefy. they match u.s. companies with factories overseas where is there more impact being felt from the shutdowns? >> this past week we saw shutdowns throughout shenzhen and areas due to a covid outbreak china has a zero covid policy,

so if there's any covid cases in the area, they typically shut the city down. and that affected a lot of warehouses around shenzhen and around other areas fortunately this time it didn't close the port like last year that caused supply chain disruptions. we're continuing to monitor the covid cases closely. but fortunately this time around they didn't close the ports. >> which u.s. industries are most exposed to the shutdowns? >> right now we're seeing electronics and home goods primarily. foxconn shutdown some facilities in shenzhen. they're diversified. there wasn't a huge effect on apple's production we're continuing to see delays trickle down that might go into the holiday season depending on how covid cases spike through the remainder of the year. >> the holiday season, even though it's only march right now? >> we'll see companies now are ordering and forecasting their inventory more ahead of time than ever before and so that's something that i think covid has had a large

impact on when it comes to actually producing products in asia >> and would you say the overall so far let's say up to this point of the week, we've seen the lockdowns continue to intensify or have they come off the boil a bit >> they're starting to come off the boil, fortunately. they have an intense lockdown policy there but fortunately we're starting to see light at the end of the tunnel >> are there any industries that are completely unexposed that those kinds of calls you're happy to be involved with where you can say hey, at least you don't have to worry about this >> i think it depends where the production is located. so a lot of companies over the past few years have diversified outside of china there's been different policies in india, vietnam, pakistan, but the challenge is a lot of the raw materials the factories get outside of china still stem from china. so everything is intertwined in the supply chain >> i can imagine people so on edge after the last couple years on what they've been through nathan, thank you for joining us tad. >> thank you

up next, both pfizer and moderna have asked the fda to grant emergency use authorization for a fourth dose of their covid vaccines as cases spike around the world we have the details and whether another wave is headed to our shores "the exchange" is back after this

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covid cases have been declining here in the u.s., but it's a very different story overseas right now with surges across china, some of asia, and europe. meg is with us with the latest and whether we should expect another wave meg? >> hey, kelly. unfortunately often what we see in europe and the uk will hit us about three weeks later. and some experts are expecting that here in the u.s if you look at several european countries over the past few weeks, we have been seeing up ticks in cases from germany to switzerland, the netherlands, the uk and france. hospitalizations in the uk also rising up about 30% over the past two weeks. now, the question is, of course, will this happen in the united states and unfortunately, we have a lot of the same factors driving the up ticks happening in the u.s.

as well. waning immunity, no longer wearing masks or social distancing and the more contagious omicron sub variant unfortunately we have lower booster rates than many of the european countries so that could have could have provided a better backstop to severe disease the uk has 67% of the eligible population compared to 48% in the u.s. waste water suggests an uptick in some areas. ba.2 is growing in prevalence across the country and is most p prevalent in the northeast so that dynamic is playing out here and a columbia university model and there's uncertainty as

you can see suggests at a trough in cases right now at 30,000 per day and they could start to rise through april so you have seen moderna and pfizer come out saying they're filing with the fda for a fourth dose of vaccine. moderna for a broader group 18 plus saying the cdc and health care providers should decide who this is appropriate for. we'll see how that plays out. >> what do we know about ba.2? how does it compare with omicron, delta, the other strains? is there a reason to expect a different reaction what about the u.s.? >> yeah. the only major difference that has been pointed out is that it's 30% more transmissible. there are some questions about

some of the antibody drugs to be better illuminated but essentially studies suggest you should have good immunity against ba.2 so that's the concern. >> interesting given a big omicron wave in the u.s. could that provide natural immunity opposed to seeing huge spikes is that something to infer why the cases spiked so much >> absolutely. in those countries that have tried to go the zero covid route now they're hit incredibly hard and don't have the backstop of the elderly population vaccinated and not only seeing the tremendous surges but in places like hong kong mortality. the elderly population isn't as vaccinated and differences in

countries with higher vaccination rates have lower mortality. >> coming up in conversation people are like nope, nope not ready. got rid of the man dates thank you so much. meg tirrell with the latest on the covid front. stocks are mixed after big gains. we are building up steam moving throughout the afternoon nasdaq up 185. quadruple witching might be upon us with more than $3 trillion of opses to expire we'll lookt a what that means going forward after this short break ugh your ? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league!

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welcome back to "the exchange." all three major averages solidly positive for the week. this could be the best weekly performance for the dow and s&p since november of 2020 with 5% gains. trillions of dollars of stock

index futures options expiring at the same time is that partly driving the rally this week? let's ask the next guest, chris murphy first of all, is it triple or quad witching today? >> triple witching today. >> what are we not witching? >> we are witching with futures, with the equity options and with the index options. but not the commodities. >> not the commodities thank you for clearing that up do you think that has anything to do with the strong equity market activity of the week? >> okay. so the equity market rebound, that's going to be based off of chinanus, the fed, the different things the options can exacerbate the movers when options are expiring so not the catalyst for the move but can exacerbate the move. >> there was focus on the vix in

particular going into the fed meeting when people worried about the fed hiking if the vix over 30 but the fed so far seems to have helped quell volatility. no >> yes when we look at the sell-off we had this year, 10 to 15% corrections happen pretty commonly in an economy that's still growing. what we were worried about was the economy moving into a recession. that's when you see larger than that normal 5 to 10% correction happening. powell did a good job stressing to united states investors that we are not anywhere near a recession. if we are not near a recession this current pullback is a standard expected not out of the ordinary pullback to see. >> all right so maybe again that is helping the vix move to a lower trend

line where are you seeing options shifts >> second half of the week we saw significantly less calls trading in commodity etfs. say the gld, for example 50% lower than its 20-day average on wednesday and then in the qs which tech especially big cap tech leading the rally and the strength today we saw an extremely notable increase in call volume there. so that could be a sign that the near term option trading momentum chasing flow is coming out of the metals and into tech. >> is that typically a bullish sign or a corelated sign >> yes we have to see if it has legs but a sign that investors are -- the near term traders are flocking to that sector.

whether or not it is very near term it is not typically necessarily a sign but definitely showing the sentiment change in the very near term. >> all right chris, great to have you on today for explaining what we are looking forward to at the close and so much more we appreciate it. >> thank you. that does it for "the exchange." thank you for your time. "power lunch" begins right now ♪ kelly, thank you welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. here is what is ahead. a key governor with hawkish comments christopher waller says inflation is raging. the fed is going to have to get more aggressive to fight it and now the markets are preparing for a half-point hike in may what does it mean for stocks we'll hear from an investor who says