to pay up for air, you know, or to ship by ocean or air. you name it, you think fedex would be such a beneficiary of that, but they can't stay ahead of that. >> you look at the two biggest cost centers, fuel and labor, and they're both up. have a grade weekend i had the worst bracket in america, by the way. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> stocks near session highs, on track for their best week since 2020 the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell." krm sara eisen happy friday here are your top takeaways on the biggest story. fedex showing inflation can cut into growth. in the earnings reports, you saw the shipping rate increases. sales look great, as a result, up 10% volumes not so much. fedex only shipping an average 16.8 million parcels a day in the quarter which was a design and a disappointment sure it could be partly omicron, but also a sign that higher inflation can take a bite out of

demand what a week for ark. a big comeback for lots of beaten down parts of the market, but ark etf up 18% on the week, still down more than 50% from the highs. is it the start of a longer comeback matt milley on the technicals says the level to watch is 65. a break above that would take it above its trend line from november when it started falling off a cliff. could be a good sign for the momentum on this etf going forward if you believe the charts >> and all the fed voters are speaking out and everyone is a hawk now wanted to spotlight neel kashkari because he's been the dovish at the fed. mr. transitory inflation well, now he's writing he got it wrong and is penciling seven rate hikes this year it shows how far and fast the fed has moved on on this issue and how serious it is about fighting inflation let's get to our stop story of the day. the market climbing the geopolitical wall of worry stocks pacing for their best week of the year, best since 2020, but we are heading into

another weekend of uncertainty surrounding the war in ukraine joining us now, jim paulsen, cnbc's senior white house correspondent, kayla tausche we are just getting some headlines from white house on a read-out from the call between president biden and xi jinping what can you tell us >> well, the readout is fairly sanguine, and it comes nearly five hours after that call concluded earlier today or four hours rather and it says simply that the presidents discussed the russian invasion of ukraine and that president biden laid out the implication of china's involvement in assisting russia if it were to do so. what some of those consequences might be we still don't know exactly what those are or to what extent china plans to participate in that assistance of russia. we know it's something the administration has in recent days ramped up its warnings of but earlier today, we got a very different readout from the chinese side, where they touted

essentially the assurances that they received from the u.s. side, that the u.s. did not seek conflict with china, it did not seek a cold war. that it would not push for taiwan's independence. and really issuing sort of a full-throated statement, even before the call had concluded, according to the white house about all of the things that president xi had secured from president biden. now, how heavy handed president biden was in that call, we simply don't know. and what happens from here, we also don't know. we're expecting to hear from senior administration officials later today, a little more detail on the call, and i'll bring you the details when i have them, but certainly a tale of two very different versions of this conversation and a very important moment in history. >> itjim, still so much we don' know between the chinese, whether they're actually helping the russians, what secondary sanctions could look like. they have been threatened, and of course, what happens with this war and yet, stocks had a really good week and continue to rise despite some crazy moves in

commodities like what we saw with nickel today. is the market just hoping or sniffing out some sort of resolution or looking past it or what >> i think that they are sniffing out a resolution. i mean, we have been in this war now for several weeks now, sara, and the worst thing about any crisis or anything that's new is that when it first hits out of left field, it just creates nothing but uncertainty. you have no idea what it means or where it's going to go, and you react very violently as an investor to get out of the way, and things move around have you have had some time to vet it, i think that the market is suggesting that they're starting to feel a little better that there's some direction to this thing even if the direction is a chronic war that goes on, it does seem like the economic fallout will not be near as detrimental as it maybe looked like going in. i think they're calming down about that more to the point, though, it does seem in recent days there's

more openness to negotiation and maybe finding another way out beyond just final victory, if you will, for both sides so i think the market is starting to discount it a little bit. and the biggest thing is just the energy prices, crude oil prices pulling back to under $100 here just earlier this week, $104 right now if you look at that, the energy prices i think are up maybe 20% now since october. and they had a 20% upward move a year ago at this time. so i don't think it's going to have as much economic fallout as maybe we anticipated initially, although it certainly could take a bad turn this is more, i think, about world order going forward. where is russia going to be in that and what's going to happen with our relationship with china? >> on that note, michael o'hanlon also joins the conversation from brookings institution. perfect question for you how is the world order being

redrafted and what do investors need to know about what that looks like in the economic alliances we're seeing forming >> well, thank you i think there are two fundamental possibilities. and it's too soon to have any real sense about which one we're headed towards one is a hardening of what was already happening. but perhaps one that could be recovered from, where certainly the russian attack on ukraine would be the big news of 2022 in my world of defense policy, but it may or may not still have to be the overriding big news for the rest of international relations on the global economy. that's the happy scenario. that presumes some kind of cease-fire by no later than the month of april with the restoration of ukrainian sovereignty, but perhaps some kind of agreement it won't seek nato membership. russia gets to have some of the sanctions lifted, businesses gradually trickle back towards russia although the economy there suffers for a while. that's the happy scenario. nobody is going to think the

same of vladimir putin again after this war, regardless, but you could imagine still russia as an economy regaining some of its previous role. and over time, perhaps, may take a few years, really getting back to where it was. the less happy scenario is an ongoing war, where vladimir putin decides he wants to conquer ukraine, perhaps overthrow the zelenskyy government, if and when he gains control, moving his own military forces into ukraine permanently, not only to try to control that country against whatever resistance may continue, but to pose a greater threat to nato's eastern flank and in that case, you have really the possibility of a new cold war if we are successful and if we are unsuccessful, some small chance of actual conflict between nato and russia. so obviously, that second scenario is far worse than the first and has much greater implications for the economy as well >> investors need to weigh all

of it. jim and michael, thank you for joining me on a friday >> the wild swings in metals have certainly grabbed headlines since the start of the war in ukraine. with another giant move today for the price of nickel. up next, we'll talk to the ceo of mining company cleveland cliffs about how the crisis is impacting his steel business steel prices have also shot up dow up about 90 points we're near session highs "closing bell" will be right back it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile-

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it has been a wild two weeks for the commodities markets in light of the war in ukraine.

take nickel, trading limit down again today on the london exchange after more than doubling earlier this month. steel prices are up more than 50% since late february. but check out the chart of miner cleveland cliffs, managing the current environment well and the stock is up 40% in the past month. let's bring in the ceo, it's great to have you back on the show talk to us about why you think you're in better shape than some of your competitors when it comes to sourcing some of these key metals in steel production >> yeah, good afternoon, sara. pleasure to be with you on your new show >> thank you very much >> as a steel company and a steel company that is self-sufficient in mining, we are very pleased with the fact that we don't depend on importing nickel and importing anything we don't import nickel, we don't import iron ore from ukraine, let alone big iron

we don't depend on iron from russia, so we're self sufficient i have been preparing this company as a basis of american manufacturing. we're ready. >> are you the only one in the industry that doesn't depend on the iron i have read a lot about in this interview and realize it's key in making steel and apparently most of your competitors use? >> yeah, everybody that uses steel needs big iron the difference is as an integrated company relying on blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces and also with a direct reduction in the plant, the more modern here in the world in toledo, ohio, we're self-sufficient. my competition needs big iron, but they don't produce big iron. they need to import it a lot of the iron comes from, guess what, from russia and from ukraine. ukraine unfortunately is being beaten down, and that's a very sad situation. russia is the perpetrator,

should not be allowed to sell in the united states, so we're in good shape because we're self-sufficient, made in the usa. >> but one part of your business that is vulnerable, and separates you, is you are a big supplier to the auto industry. and when it comes to autos right now, they're struggling to meet demand looking for parts, first it was chips and now it's the key metals from russia and ukraine and even the japanese earthquake what are you expecting in terms of auto demand for your steel? >> we're seeing an improvement, compared to last year. the biggest thing is that we are by far the largest supplier of automotives here in the united states, so these things don't go -- the common factors all at the same time, so one common factor is -- two, we are the biggest supplier of both of them, and then number three comes along.

we're also the biggest supplier of net one, so we're able to move around. i have some maintenance scheduled for first and second quarter of this year and when i saw the russian movement around the borders of ukraine, we anticipated maintenance for q4 that we shut down units last quarter and now we're hitting on all cylinders ipq1 and it will be the same in q2 q1 is doing well and q2 will be better >> talk to me about where prices are going. obviously, you have pricing power right now and you have to pass on the higher costs, but is the demand keeping up enough for you to continue to raise prices? >> oh, yeah, absolutely. absolutely keep in mind, the american steel market is among all of the developed markets in the entire world, the only one that produces less than we need so we all need imports here in the united states.

imports will always be part of the picture, so in a world that's not really able to trade steel for supply chain issues, for the war in ukraine, for congestion in ports, we are in a special domestic supplier, cleveland cliffs being the largest supplier of flat roll in the united states, is in a good position we're playing the game the way it should be played. >> thank you for joining us with the update appreciate it. >> thank you very much and kn luck with the new gig. >> thank you, cleveland cliffs ceo. we're going strong, this has been a pattern for four days in a row here, and tracking for the best week since november 2020. the dow up 129 another little surge here. s&p 500 up almost a percent. the nasdaq the winner on the week, it has the most catching up to do, up almost 2% small caps up .75% coming up, is the classic 60/40 portfolio up for a rough road

ahead? mike santoli checking the charts ahead. >> and senator elizabeth warren with abill to crack down on crypto we'll discuss with sam bankman-fried. we'll be right back. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. thanks for coming. vanguard. now when it comes to a financial plan

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almost a 1% gain for the s&p 500. tech and consumer leading us higher goldman sachs out with note today saying stagflation is increasing the risk of a lost decade for 60/40 portfolios. mike santoli looking at the potential shift for the dashboard. there has been a lot of chatter about how this is working? >> yes, and in fact there has been chatter for years but it has really worked. 60% equities, 40% stocks, kind of a traditional retirement portfolio mix. year to date, this vanguard fund approximates the 60 slaes 40 strategy you don't get these 5% multimonth drawdowns in this area and that's because bond are

down 5% and stocks are down 6.5% or 7%. you're not getting any buffer from stocks. if inflation stays high, bonds will be harder to perform. that's the argument. so far - >> what do you do? >> here's the question, there are pockets of the market where there's sort of high cash flow or real assets seem to be the real things. some people say add commodities. take a look at a couple etfs this is the cows and the moo the cows is a cash cows portfolio. high free cash flow stocks a lot of energy in there, a lot of health care in there, but it's basically a bird in the hand type of investment strategy getting the cash today, you don't have to worry about the future it's not about paper wealth. it's what you have now plus the moo is agra business. these are stocks geared to it. so it so happens that moving right in sync here and they're outperforming the s&p by like 14

percentage points. >> stick with the cows with the herd. >> at least ride with the herd to a degree. maybe add that to your 60/40 >> is that just random that they have those >> what's the point of having hundreds of tickers in my head if i can't throw one of those relationships up >> thank you, mike up next the ceo of crypto currency exchange ftx reacts to a new bill that would punish cryptocurrency companies we'll talk to him next session highs for the s&p and nasdaq which is outperforming again today. alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs)

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what's wall street buzzing about today? burger king wants to close its restaurants in russia, but it can't. they own only 15% of their stake in a burger king in russia, the rest is a group of investors led by a russian businessman the company's international president wrote in an open letter to employees they demanded the suspension of burger king operations and were refused. he said they're in the process of divesting from the venture but it will take time and it suspended new investments and is redirecting profits to refugee charities. competitor yum brands keeping kfcs open because the franchises are russian owned. it does show how some companies, especially in fast food, have tied to russia through all sorts

of complex decades-old legal deals and ownership structures and they're trying in the meantime to manage the corporate reputations and make statements. when we come back, stocks looking at a solid 1% gain in the s&p right now. only sectors lower are utilities and energy, though crudole is higher on the day, we're up 2% going into the close coming up, sam bankman-fried on a new bill from elizabeth warren, the senator, to crack down on using crypto to skirt russian sanctions. >> and later, we will discuss whether there's still time to take a bite out of faang stocks which have had a very solid performance this week. we'll be right back. cody! hi!! hi! how are you?

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another strong final hour of trading. the nasdaq up 1.9%, almost 2% gain up 8% for the week as a whole. still got a long way to go to climb back, but it has been a recovery senator elizabeth warren announcing a new bill that would allow the government to crack down on crypto companies that are conducting business with sanctioned russian entities, tweeting, quote, we can't allow putin and his cronies to hide their wealth and evade sanctions using cryptocurrency joining us now, ftx ceo sam bankman-fried, runs a big international crypto exchange. first, how easy is it for russian oligarchs to use crypto to hide their wealth and evade sanctions? >> it's a really good question, and the answer today is it's very difficult to do so. there are a very large number of checks in place to confront that, everything from their bank to the bank they would be wiring money to that the exchange would be using, doing sangs checks to the exchanges themselves

know your customers promises and sanctions checks on the banks involved and the people involved, doing sanctions checks on the tokens involved and any transfers going out as well. there are lot of processes in place to prevent this from happen and they have been fairly effective in preventing it, but it's only because these processes are in place that it prevents this. >> i was wondering because a u.n. report has said that north korea, for instance, used stolen cryptocurrency to help fund a missile program and iran mined bitcoin to help try to evade sanctions. there is a history here of bad behavior and hiding behind crypto >> yeah, i think if you rewind to 2017, 2018, the space was a lot weaker in terms of compliance in general and specifically in terms of sanctions checks this is true basically across the board and there are also some specific venues that were particularly exploited for this

manner over the last four years, partially because of the work of law enforcement, partially because of the work of lawmakers and policymaker, a lot of that has been changed up. >> what about this new bill from senator elizabeth warren do you think it's effective in trying to find any of that, and can you trace it it puts it on the treasury secretary to find some instances of russian oligarchs, for instance, getting around sanctions through crypto >> i mean, i'll say we have been coordinating with all of the relevant enforcement agencies including people from treasury on our policies around this. and i think in general, they have been extremely constructive i think we have been able to effectively prevent it we have been able to trace a number of tokens related to financial crimes and consistently stop them from being able to cash out including some of the more high profile ones so i think this is an effective process, although it does take a lot of work and it's really important that the industry does

keep that up and keeps up that cooperation with law enforcement on this so that it does remain the case >> i know your industry has found a new lobbying power you have been a big backer of democratic politicians president joe biden, have you packed senator elizabeth warren, and why do you go to democrats typically? are they friendlier toward bitcoin regulation >> i have given to both parties. they're high profile donations divided. in the presidential election, but more recently, i have given to both sides of the aisle and some of these are just governance type donations, looking from both parties at people who, unrelated to crypto, will help lead our country in a constructive direction i think we have also found an increasingly bipartisan approach to cryptocurrencies themselves i think that wasn't so much the case a year ago. i think there's more of a partisan split

back in 2020, 2021, but i think both parties have been -- you know, in general, pretty constructive on it and i think that's been reflected in what you see with the executive order. it's been reflected in the chatter you see coming out of congress in some of the bills around stable coin regulations you see being drafted, all of which i think would help move the space forward. it would bring a licensing pathway and also giving more regulatory oversight and more protection >> what about senator warren in particular have you given to her? >> i don't know that i have. i could look up exactly who i have i can't tell you for sure off the top of my head >> we couldn't find it either. >> she's extremely sharp, and you know, extremely well informed on a number of things i think a lot of the points she brings up are pretty valid there needs to be a conversation around sanctions and there needs to be strong enforcement as it turns out, this is something that has happened over

the last years with the industry and i think i would love to talk with her about that and what is in place today and what she would like to see in place that isn't there today, but it's a super important point to bring up >> i know you have welcomed the regulation i want to ask you about how bitcoin has performed. it hasn't done a whole lot the fed did raise interest rates. signaled more on the way it's acted a little more like a high-tech stock than it has as an inflation hedge or a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty or even around what's going on with russia. are you disappointed in that >> so i think there's a few things going on there. one, you saw right when sort of the war broke out, that bitcoin got hit along with tech stocks and you know, it sort of was very much acting as a tech stock, which it hasp frankly over the last few years because

this has been a market where sort of monetary policy has been driving moves. that had similar impact on both crypto and on stocks so that's been a piece of this however, after it sort of started getting hit, you know, on the beginning of this, it's substantially outperformed a number of tech stocks. you know, over the latter month or so, because i think that fundamentally it has reacted differently to the ukraine crisis than tech stocks have acting more as an international hedge. i think there's confusing factors going both ways, which led to it not losing value during this, although there was a temporary drop i also think that when you look at sort of the inflation numbers that are coming out, those are just reflections of things that have been true for a while, and so i think that was sort of already reflected in bitcoin's price ninitiation over the last year or two. >> cpi has gotten worse, and

sam, just for transparency, so are you doing russia -- business in russia? because some of your competitors like coinbase have said they will continue to serve the russian people they're not going to pull out like a lot of other western countries. so what do you do about that >> so, before there even were formal sanctions, we cut off all contact with all russian banks and financial institutions d we do not do any payment transfers in or out of russia anymore, and you know, as sanctions came out, obviously, some of the banks were hit with those. but we don't service transfers from any russian banks whether or not they're sanctioned because we don't want to be in a position where there's some transfer that started from a bank that was sanctioned to a bank that wasn't and ultimately ended up on our platform we proactively took that step. we also obviously don't allow any sanctioned parties or institutions or countries to access the platfomer checks

and sanction checks on all of the assets and people who use the platform >> got it. sam bankman-fried, thank you for joining us ceo of ftx >> moderna has been on an absolute tear this week. now it's seeking approval from the fda for a second booster shot for adults. top analyst weighs in when we take you inside the market zone. and remember, you can listen to "closing bell" on the go by following the "closing bell" podcast on your favorite podcast app. dow is up 190. crm, salesforce adding the most to the dow right now we'll be rightac bk. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this.

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18 minutes left of trading we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli here tabreak down the crucial moments of the trading day. plus, needham's laura martin on the recent faang stock rally what a comeback. michael ye on the big week for vaccine stocks as well welcome, everybody it has been a strong week for stocks the dow, s&p, and that nasdaq on track for their best performances sin november 2020 we wiped out a 200 point loss earlier today. it looked like the rally would take a pause it has not this final hour, it's been a pattern of very strong performance into the close what does it tell you? >> a sign of a market where people were underpositioned for a good rally and essentially after a 12%, ten-week decline in the s&p 500, very depressed positioning and sentiment, i think there was a, we need to get back in. there's also a few tests i think the market has been in the process of passing this week

one, fed rate hike clearly seems like it was priced in over the course of four months as investors braced for an aggressive tightening cycle. at least right now, that seems to be the case you had some bond yields pulled. you had all these excuses for the market to make further lows and it didn't do that. all that being said, we rushed back up to these levels. a lot of systematic traders i follow will say this is now where you sell the market, on an expiration day we blew through some of those obvious levels, where all of a sudden the hedger husband to chase the market higher >> growth stocks have certainly made a comeback despite the fed hiking interest rates. the beaten down faang stocks were no exception. all up significantly, led by meta, up nearly 15% for the week let's bring in needham's senior internet and media analyst, laura martin would you be telling your clients to build positions here after some of these mega cap growth stocks got beaten up so hard >> so the answer is i would pay

attention to the fact that the divergence in the faangs is getting more extreme, so over the last week, you saw alphabet down 6%, netflix up 13%, and over the last month, you had stocks with a 10% range. so i think meta is catching up a little bit i would not be a buyer of meta here, but i do like the idea of amazon because -- i would be cautious about apple also because of the china risk, because of what's going on in ukraine with russia. >> you didn't mention netflix. you never liked netflix. it has been one of your big misses over the years but you continued to do new research and have looked at this idea that people are more focused on the news right now, given the war in ukraine, than entertainment. do you see that as a lasting phenomenon and issue for netflix? >> i do. i think netflix, when the seventh inning of the streaming wars, it's clear you read my most recent piece, and netflix is losing. it's losing to competitors with bundles. it's losing to competitors with

cheaper priced ad-light tiers and it's not doing anything innovative it created a business 12 years ago. they deserve kudos for that, and they have done nothing innovative since we're back to the price where we downgraded in the fourth quarter of '19 i would call that an okay call even though i missed a couple years during covid of awesome results. >> they're still the dominant player and they still have a lot of international growth. these are the arguments the bulls use. i'm sure you have heard them >> i have. i just think they need to be more reactive to their competition because now we're in maturity now it's about targeting audiences and having -- it's not just about having better entertainment content. you need sports and news and a cheaper tier that's $5, not the premium price point of $17, which is where netflix is. >> mike, what happened this week to the mantra that the fed is raising interest rates, they're going to keep hiking to fight inflation, and that makes long duration risk assets like tech stocks vulnerable?

it totally flipped this week after we got that message from the fed, it just was priced in >> first, if you buy into that being the key driver, you know i haven't really bought in i think that's an element of what's going on. what most matters is longer term rates. if you're talking about duration, you look at the longer term yields. they have not been really where the upside has been this week. the ten-year kind of stalled out just above 2, and it's in a manageable range when you have the overall nasdaq 100 losing 20% of its value in 2 1/2 months, things matter a lot more than a few basis points on the ten-year yield, and it's a veversion trade just to get back into the index stocks as opposed to trading tick for tick with bonds >> nasdaq up 8% for the week laura, thank you >> moderna shares also having a very strong week and building on the gains right now, up more than 25% as covid cases and lockdowns climb in hong kong and

in china the company also asking for approval for a second booster for adults joining us is jefferies equity analyst michael ye you have always been skeptical on this name, moderna, and the idea it's a one-hit wonder when it comes to the covid vaccine. have you changed the view at all given some of the momentum we have seen in the stock and the optimism around a potentially vaccinated china >> it's great to be here and a great question good to see you. look, i think you're absolutely right. we watched this go from $450, $350, $150, and we see a bounce here i think the key here is we're doing to have these little spurts of concerns about another wave, china, hong kong, et cetera, stock down 7% off the highs is going to have moves like that, but i'm going to continue to say, at least in the near to medium term, that wall street and biotech investors are still really skittish to come back toward a covid name, and i would think you might agree that the street seems to be moving beyond covid and we're going to have to start getting used to it >> is that the right call?

already we're tracking this new variant, ba-2, what we hear from the medical experts is this is going to be with us now, certainly in the winter time, and that we might have to get boosted, so this could be a very long recurring revenue stream, could it not >> i think we might get a boost here again, it's down 30% year to date it doesn't surprise me that we're going to have some bumps up some little rallies here as people, i think as mike santoli said, were offsides on some of these positions. you see some short recovery. you have people jumping in to buy a stock down 30% year to date, 70% off the highs and i do think we're going to have a fall boosting season. i do predict there will be people boosting. i think what people are worried about is '23 and '24, and structurally, people want to see something beyond the covid vaccine. i think we'll get that stuff i think it's going to take time to play that out, so i think the right call here is it's going to be range bound >> what do you like better, because biotech actually has had a pretty good week, and a lot of

the biotech analysts have waited for this for a long time >> well, it has been extremely tough for biotech over the last 12 months. and i expect it will continue to be a tough year this year. i think a lot of the structural problems in the group are about too many ips, too many bad negative news and moderna going down is not helping. we like vertex, that's a call, it has been a good performer year to date we added that to the picks list back in december one of the few companies with a multitude of positive events huge number this year for cystic fibrosis i think they'll raise guidance and that's a stock you want to continue to own in a challenging environment and a good chart and a recovery stock we like vertex >> michael yee, thank you for joining us vertex down a little bit today but outperforming. >> e-commerce stocks, they have been big winners etf up 16% since monday, tracking for the best week since

april 2020 helped in part by chinese internet stocks bike jd.com, which have seen big rallies as china stepped in with support. jefferies initiating on some of these internet retailers, naming rent the runway, the real real, and thread-up with buy ratings the firm conducting a survey finding most respondents continue to shop for apparel online, more than in person, and that there's growing interest in second hand and rental offerings. that has been the story for a while, mike. and it's not like people beat up on the fundamentals of these businesses, just the environment changed so much where a lot of these names, which aren't quite profitable yet and are newly listed public companies have not done well. has anything really changed? >> well, no, but i think the other side of that is there was a lot of excitement out of the gate for these businesses, and therefore, the stocks got inflated, like a lot of other e-commerce and software companies, the chart of that online etf, the one-year chart, it looks exactly like the cloud etf, exactly like ark, which

basically means it's been cut in half and now had a furious rally back up to that sort of line that defines its longer term trend. so i think that that is the issue. it is macro, it is investor appetite for this stuff. rent, i still think there's questions about the scalability and the business model there, but other kind of online thrift stores, so to speak, or exchanges, it seems to make a lot of sense you know i have, i guess i would call it second hand experience my teenage daughters seem to shop exclusively, d-pop is a big one, but in other words, it's still the mode right now, kind of the status comes in finding a great undiscovered piece of clothing as opposed to a label >> they would be so proud that you cited them as a stock indicator. >> they would cringe, basically. >> by the way, not just the new ipos etsy is up 22% this week the major averages on track for their best weekly performance

since november 2020 led by consumer discretionary and technology let's bring in charlie charlie, great to have you back on do you trust what we have seen this week as a more -- as a longer sustainable move higher for the markets or is it just a bounce >> so you know we're long term investors, aerial's motto is slow and steady wins the race so we're not going to pay a lot of attention to one week, but we do think the market was oversold. people were very pessimistic i'm sure you have seen some of the polls showing some of the highest pessimism among investors in the last ten years. so we do think that was overdone look, a major war in europe is the kind of thing that should produce a little bit of caution. but fundamentally, we think the four factors we talk to you about are still very much in place. one of which is a very strong economy. one of which is very attractive value stocks, and so those things haven't changed >> we have always asked you for your favorite stock picks, and back in december, you mentioned

apache, that has been a very good call, charlie are you sticking with it after a big move higher? >> absolutely. not only did i mention it, i called it out as my favorite i think it was 23 the day you asked me, and i think it's in the high 30s today >> not that you're keeping track. >> it was trading about seven times earnings then, and even with this explosion higher and the price, it's still only trading at about seven times why? because the earnings expectations have gone up so much i mean, the market is acting as if these commodity names are having a once in a lifetime opportunity, and it's going to go away. i don't believe that i think it's going to be very hard for the world to produce the kind of oil and natural gas, it's both, that this company produces and you're getting a free option on their findings off the coast of south america they have had some very nice indications of some extremely large possible wells down in south america that could turn this into an even more of a home run. i still absolutely like apache

at these levels. >> energy and utilities are underperforming today. you also liked the fertilizers which have done quite well as russia is a producer, it's banned the exports, and now we have got a shortage, along with a lot of other key commodities do you see this as a longer term issue for stocks like this, and would you be adding to positions? i think you have mosaic and others >> yeah, mosaic is my second largest position behind apache, and absolutely the long term outlook is very good as the world economy, as people eat more meat, which they do when economies get stronger, chickens and hogs and cattle all consume a lot more agricultural products in terms of calories then if you just have those calories straight from the field. there's going to be more need, more demand for agricultural products, fertilizers are an effective means of increasing those yields and mosaic has well positioned mines outside of the turbulent middle east. very close to the north america

and brazilian activity >> i mean, you're clearly still charlie sticking with the invest around inflation as a key theme and pick companies that have pricing power in this environment and are going to be scarce, but the fed has started raising rates and they totally changed their tune when it comes to the fight on inflation. they have come around to the charlie point of view that it is a problem and that they are going to have to be aggressive when it comes to fighting it does that make stocks like this that tend to do well in inflationary environments not as appealing because you are fighting the fed >> it's nice of you to put it that way i wouldn't say they have come all the way around to my point of view. this still as of last month, they were still pumping $30 billion into the market with quantitative easing. now they finally stopped throwing gas onto the fire they're nowhere near where they need to be in terms of interest rates. the fed funds rate should be 2%, not 25 to 50 basis points. they have a long way to go until

you get to my level of concern about inflation. >> you're not impressed. >> i think this is temporary >> mike, i'm looking at the market here. we're holding the highs going into the close on a friday consumer discretionary, technology lead. nvidia is popping. we have two new additional highs in the s&p, dollar tree and quantum services along with a few other highs sort of spanning all sorts of industrials to farm equipment like deere trading at all-time highs chubb, the insurance company which groups would you be watching that will signal that this kind of rally will continue is it the ones that have been beaten down the most >> i think that's one element you have to keep an eye on, just in order to gauge whether most of what we're seeing here is just kind of a catch-up and just kind of things that were beaten down too much that have been picked up right now. i do think it's worth keeping in mind, the s&p 500 right now in four days has essentially regained half of what was lost in total from january 3rd through monday in terms of high to low, about a

12% move and that sort of tells you that we're at a point where it looks like it's real we have multiple 1% days to the upside in a row. that's not to be dismissed but it doesn't mean that it's going to be a vee back to the highs. some of those areas that might be charged with being just a bounce, you might want to look at that to see if it's a durable move >> charlie, have you added any new positions we should know about to track them? >> we're buying more and more madison square garden entertainment. in an inflationary environment, great real estate like madison square garden becomes even more valuable we have been buying that >> it has been an underperformer thank you for joining us >> just under two minutes to go in the trading day mike, what do you see in the internal internals? >> pretty strong under the hood. if you look at the volume split for the new york stock exchange, it really powered higher now we're looking at almost a 3 to 1 advancing to declining volume overall volumes elevated by the triple witching indense

rebalancing also alongside that. high beta stocks, more volatile stocks have started to outp outperform year to date, against the low voltity one. of course, low volatility, and you have beta slightly edging it out. the volatility index continues its decline. 24 now, so it shows you that this is an indication we have more stability in the market, we had a clinching up of anxiety, that has released. you want to see it stretch down toward 20 to say there might be more of a chance of it being an all-clear. >> triple witching expiration of options and index fund options increasing potential volatility. as we geinto the close, we're holding near the best levels of the session. it's been a pattern we have seen for the last few sessions. the dow up about 250 points right now. .75%. salesforce is the biggest contributor. visa, microsoft also going

strong the s&p 500 good for again of 1.17%, adding to its gains for the week it has been a strong week, in fact the best week of the year consumer discretionary and technology lead. that's pretty much been the story. a lot of beaten down names getting some love this week. that's going to do it for us here on "closing bell. now i will send it into "overtime" with scott wapner >> and welcome to "overtime. i am scott wapner. you just heard the bells we are just getting started in just a few minutes, we'll speak exclusively to legendary investor jim chanos who is going to reveal a brand-new short position right here in o.t we begin today with our talk of the tape that is this week's stock surge. whether it really does mean the worst is over. it certainly has been the conversation all week long right here in "overtime. >> we're in the neighborhood of a tradeable bottom >> what we're seeing in our world is there is a lot of volatility, there is a lot of