good morning breaking news from china a boeing 737 operated by china eastern airlines crashed with 132 people on board. we'll tell you what we know so far. berkshire buying spree cont continuing buying allegheny for $11.6 billion. details ahead. ukraine officials rejecting the russian demand to surrender a key city in the south. it is monday, march 21st, 2022 special day here at "squawk box" which begins right now good morning

welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm kelly evans with joe kernen. let's check out equity futures a slight decline play out. maybe worse as the boeing decline on the dow s&p down 6 we also are keeping a close eye on treasury yield. the ten-year above 2.2%. we below that level now. $2.18 on the ten-year. 2.44% on the 30. lit moretle more action in the e $108 a barrel. brent is $111. the news hit us earlier. chinese aviation authority confirming a passenger plane with 132 people on board crashed in a mountainous area in southern china

the plane was a boeing 737 operated by chinese eastern airlines flames and smoke could be seen rise f rising from the hillside where it crashed we will bring you more information as we get it that's what we see it so far we're cnbc we'll show you the stock of boeing although, obviously, we're much more concerned with it it just happened as so often happens, with things we cover here, it affects things in the stock market. boeing is a dow component. dow is down 100 points after a better week last we'ek >> dow was up 1,800 points last w week you know, four straight 1% gains in the s&p

a rare sprint higher off the lows i think making some people wonder if it is strong enough compared to rallies off lows it actually means something opposed to a bounce. >> the 7% drop in boeing is a big move >> it is hard to talk about in terms of what we will do we will forge ahead. in the past, if there weren't the two previous crashes with boeing's corporate behavior, nsh initially, you say we know nothing. it could be pilot error or weather. >> all of which is still true. >> the knee jerk reaction is boeing in the past was the software or whatever i think you do this first and ask questions later. if the previous two incidents hadn't happened, you would not see this. >> probably not.

boeing is all about the book and not secure the way it used to be it seems if you have been trading this stock based on the last headline opposed to current free cash flow, we know what is going. >> the rumor and hasn't been confirmed or source from are reuters that delta which hasn't ordered a boeing in ten years, was on the cusp of ordering. that's the story we didn't get to -- i said it was a special day. we will see you again. >> i thought you were saying spring equinox >> a bit of a pause between -- it is early. >> you know, these are -- we're not out of this thing yet. i don't want to imply. the pandemic

>> i'm half full here. >> what? >> i'm saying we're out of it. >> looking better a couple of weeks ago than it is now >> the ba.2. we heard from gottlieb he will be on today. it will get endemic. it will be something when do we make that full shift to where we don't? >> i think this is the tell. >> we have therapeutics for it it is a less virulent strain >> this is obviously spreading now every time i turn around, someone has covid again. that was not true a month ago. it is spreading. so far, nothing has changed. every mandate i've been around is still off instead of coming back on. >> around the world. south korea as wealll >> they don't have the natural immunity. >> if you had omicron, you don't get ba.2

>> that's what i'm saying. >> omicron was not bad if you had it. >> for most people i think that's what i had. >> that's what i had >> i knew you meant that it wasn't a special day because i was here i'm usually not here >> the only reason i said that i was still basking in the glow of friday when you were here were you not, magic mike >> oh, no. >> yes >> perfect >> the headlines. >> the three of us sully and i had an immediate thought of chippendales. >> it's ironic headline. calling the short guy stretch. >> yeah. sure curly. for our producer let's get to warren buffett. the company buying allegheny for $848.02 per share. the deal valued at $11.6

billion. berkshire is snapping up occidental petroleum the slight aspect, kelly, allegheny was a company considered the next berkshire. actually along with markell and fairfax. >> hope to have more time to get into it this morning berkshire is one of my favorite stories. this is a repeat of the late '90s when buffett didn't get the dot-com thing and he is sticking to his guns. the amount of attention that he got at the expense of berkshire. they can't keep up with the times. now he is back to being the fifth biggest company again. the stock is back up. >> had he not given away all

that stock, he would be the wealthiest man. >> he is climbing back up as the tech connected. >> the value, quality balance sheet. >> call him out. it goes up >> it doesn't look good for berkshire. the timing from their inv involvement in 2019. berkshire got involved it was the opposite. icahn came in. he made triple his money in three years and sold it and they got in >> they got in it went up another 30% he made $1 billion. >> 30% is not 400% >> right whether occi, once this started, we will see if occi is more valuable the old energy companies >> it is already happened. >> speaking of the last six

weeks. ruaccording to the united nations and meantime in mariupol, the russian defense ministry halted the attack to allow the evacuation of civils in the humanitarian corridor ukrainian officials say 400 people were hiding in the ukrainian school ukraine has refused. president biden will hold a call with leaders of france, uk, germany and italy today. he will travel to europe to meet with world leaders and participate in a nato summit on thursday. >> you see the beauty of magic mike you saw that immediately you picked it up >> perfect >> something you can't really manufacture a nickname >> you are trying.

>> no! it's organic >> it sticks or it doesn't >> i never had nicknames that stick to me. i don't convey fun >> not for air >> we'll talk about it. >> magic mike is fine. >> absolutely. >> what you do within the markets? what you have been doing for 30 years is magic >> i know. coming up, we will do that later. futures right now are showing slight declines. modest after the gains nasdaq is an under performer we'll take a closer look at some morning movers after the break later, we talk to senator bill cassidy about the rise in crude prices and war in ukraine and more you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. welcome back a couple of stocks to watch. we start with neilsen holdings rejected the takeover offer. the stock down 17% to over $20 a share. the offer from the group under values the company any reaction, joe? what do you think? do they need to take the deal? >> i'm still -- i'm not a fan

because they under report cnbc's ratings so badly >> isn't that why they should take the deal? >> they don't measure out of home viewing >> it is not where they have -- >> ways of knowing with set-top boxes. >> they do a lot more than tv. online traffic >> do they work with netflix there was a measurement. >> they are trying >> exactly they should take the deal. >> they should the price of nickel dropping this morning after doubled with the huge spike on march 8th. lme ususpended trading. once again, overnight, it hit down falling 15% the lme saying it prioritized stability by setting a narrow range of daily trading limits.

those could be widened if they observe a more orderly market. >> kind of a broken market for now. joining us to talk about what is moving so far is stephanie link. strategist at hightower and cnbc contributor. >> good morning. >> steph, i want to start off with the tough headlines about the crash of boeing jet in china. i know it is a company you followed in the past the stock reacting to the down side this morning. where is boeing situated in terms of the investment case the years into a lot of the troubles >> this is a very disappointing announcement today and it is troublesome. it does seem like it is not the 737 max from the investment point of view. you know i own this stock. i have owned this stock.

i think longer term and it is not getting credit for the defense business this is disappointing news you know, we have to wait and get more data and details. for me, as i said, i don't think it gets credit for the defense business they are making progress with the 737 max. it is a duopoly with the airbus. longer term, the company is doing what they can to put the pieces back together this is clearly a setback this morning. >> yeah. just more broadly, steph, we were talking about the last week rally. it goes some believers because of the force of it and the fact it came with a lot of excuses to go down further and it did not given what the fed was up to how are you trying to take advantage of some of the volatility we had? you had half of all stocks down 20% from the high. there seems to be a lot to chooses from

>> i don't think we're out of the woods. i think volatility is here this year we are all data dependent to see what the fed can engineer a soft landing. what does inflation mean to overall growth how much does growth slow this year we have already thought that growth was going to slow just because the fiscal and monetary policies put in place over the last two years was going away. i thought this year was going to be a slower year clearly we have a lot of the other issues and not to mention ukraine and russia to me, last week was interesting. you had the markets rally, but growth over value rally. russell 1000 growth out performed last week alone. year to date, value out performing growth. it is an uncertain time. i'm looking for opportunities. i did add to boeing last week.

i added to wells fargo and bank of america and i added back into the portfolio fortinet i thought the stock down 16% year to date was an opportunity. i have been adding to tech and adding to growth on the pull back to more balance my portfolio. >> fortinet. you mentioned the performance last week. some are looking at that and saying it is the hard hit stuff from depressed levels. there is not of an earning does it give you pause of the nature of the comeback at this point? >> i don't really trust it to be honest with you. as i say, this year is a year that we are data dependent on the economy and how much it happens and how much do we slow in terms of the growth if we see slower growth, mike, i think growth will out perform

value. i have been in the cyclical camp for the last year and a half now you have the opportunities that is why fortinet is certainly something i like a lot. it is a $5 billion addressable market stock down 16% year to date. i thought it was an opportunity. you know, i've been adding to facebook and adding to apple i'm trying to as i mentioned, balance my portfolio you don't want to be too over your skis this year in sectors and overweight big bets because of the volatility you want to take advantage of the pullbacks and that's where i am i see it in tech i see it in health care as well. >> steph it is kelly. i think it is interesting what you are saying here. you think people shouldn't be too under weight tech. we were talking about how tech and financials was the other one. tech has been sitting out for

other reasons. could you elaborate on that? it doesn't mean -- you think people should get into stocks like zoom, but does it feel like that sector is getting morie interesting here >> i think it is more interesting. the two bellwethers this week will give us data points adobe and nvidia i don't expect massive news for nvidia we will sigh how the stocks react to the news this week. you want to look at high quality balance sheet earners. you don't want to look at zoom or crowdstrike i want to find a couple of names that are under appreciated by the marketplace.

tech sat out the rally in the markets and year to date, that pullbacks are an opportunity i'm picking carefully, kelly i want to find companies that i think have one or two in the business with good balance sheets and cash flow total addressable markets matter that is why cybersecurity is a place to look at >> adobe and what other one reporting this week? >> nvidia. analyst day this week. >> got it. >> i don't expect anything new the stock is up 24% last week alone. it is still down 20% from the high keeping an eye on that one. >> steph, thanks so much coming up, upset special we have your ncaa tournament update duke and arizona surviving clos games. i know about baylor.

that was horrible. i had them all the way my brackets are busted baylor and auburn eliminated we will have more after the break. saint peter's. the peacocks nbc should sponsor them. i think it is fitting that the peacocks are doing well. crypto prices are up to date we'll be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. careful now. - thanks. -you got it. and thanks to voya, i'm confident about my future. -oh dad, the twins are now... -vegan. i know. i got 'em some of those plant burgers. -nice. -yeah. voya provides guidance for the right investments, and helps me be prepared for unexpected events. they make me feel like i've got it all under control. [crowd cheers] because i do. okay, that was awesome. voya. be confident to and through retirement.

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welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. markets about to give back the gains last week.

s&p down ten points. up 6% last week. dow off 140. boeing a contributor there nasdaq down 60 in the pre-market. and the upsets in the ncaa tournament we have jabari young with us why do we call them upsets in a year we say this is nuts. iden it's madness it is about average for the surprises we have seen this year there's the great cinderella the powerful teams that have fallen by the wayside. not that different from previous years. >> it is not that different. at the philadelphia sixers and dallas game on friday night and i asked jason kidd after the conference i said who do you have in the ncaa tournament. he said it is all about who is hot at the right time.

you have to give it to saint peter's. they are getting hot at the right time i heard you mention nbc should sponsor them i was thinking the same thing. you took the words out of my mouth. cow houston is a good pick i'm rooting for duke you want to see mike krzyzewski to leave on a good note. duke has a good shot do not count out saint peter's they having nothing to lose. they are playing like this the last time this team had a big upset prior to kentucky was 1968 when they beat duke in the n.i.t. they are going to philadelphia to play purdue they will have a good home crowd. keep your eye on that. only 100 bets placed on saint peter's. if you can get in right now, joe, and get that money because you can't pick against saint

peter's. >> no way. seton hall the coach? >> you know. i hope not listen, when you see a small college like this playing well and living up to the expectations >> that's where he went. >> say that again? >> that's his alma mater a.d. hired him at saint peter's. if he goes all the way >> not now not now. this team is playing well. they're on the mat now to leave right now, i don't think that is good for the school i like him to stay there don't leave. >> look what happened to my friend chris mack. we have to get this back to business it is amazing. purdue the big ten? they are always overrated. ohio state wasn't as good. illinois is never as good. purdue seems good. they have a chance, probably

>> again, it is about who is hot and who's not. if they miss shots and don't play well, saint peter's team will take them to task i love the underdogs they have nothing to lose. they were already predicted to lose everybody picking against them purdue has to play well. obviously everybody will pick purdue i think they will win. i love to see the cinderella stories. it is good for the ncaa. you have not seen a lot of interest over the last few years. when you have a scinderella story, it is good for ratings. >> i thought the betting dynamic would boost ratings. maybe when you add it all up with streaming and the legacy and media, maybe it will be above. is there declining interest?

why? >> if you look at the polling, american gaming association comes out and saying 45 americans would bet on the tourney. that is down from 2019 when they projected 47 million i asked why the tournament and interest is down one of the comments i had was a lot of people don't know the players and one and done you cannot grow. you see college football a lot of people are interested with three or four years that interest goes down. a lot of people are not going to the brackets to bet. they are going out and goes to the sports betting books mattress mack. he said give me an east team to come out and win he said that is part of it that is people who don't know the kids because they come out and quick and one or two years and out of there you want guys to stay longer big names to stay longer to grow with them. you will see the interest creep back up if that happens to be

the case >> you mentioned houston right from the beginning i guess i saw a lot of them because they play cincinnati a few times in that conference memphis. memphis almost won one three-pointer can make a difference in the last two minutes. you see so many bounce around and don't go in. that's when the team that was down needed to do it if you don't hit it. you get it from the guys that are ahead. it is exciting >> i love that the memphis game unc. that unc game. that was the best game of the weekend. i was thinking that unc was going to blow it they didn't. i thought that was the best game of the weekend. >> who did they play it is ucla that is going to be a great game unbelievable game. north carolina >> who do you got, joe who is your pick your bracket is busted >> i got two left.

i got arizona winning. they barely won. they had to go to overtime i don't have enough to win this pool because i don't have enough possibilities for the elite eight for finals >> next time go with the underdog stick with saint peter's go peacocks! >> jabari. thanks >> i'm sure they get a bump. different story. coming up, crude prices surging again this morning we dig into the moves after the break. wti is almost at $109. we will talk to mohamed el-erian i'll talk to him about inflation. back in a moment

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. boeing is a drag we will get to that. 63 in the s&p.

it was rebounding through the major averages last week and what has been a tough start to the year hard to say a tough start to the year and you are halfway through it china's aviation authority reports that a passenger plane with 132 people on board crashed today in the mountainous area in southern china cnbc confirmed it was a boeing 7 737, but not a 737 max we have phil lebeau joining us it appears to be a 737-800, phil, do you know for sure it wasn't a max was it a 737-800 >> reporter: joe, that is our understanding. we reached out to boeing for confirmation of this and to china eastern. we have not heard from china eastern.

boeing is confirming this was a 737. this was not a max model that doesn't diminish the tragedy. we are trying to get details over what happened with the boeing 737 it was not a max model this is the plane that is about seven years old. this was an hour into the flight when it had a rapid descent into the mountains on the way to guanji 13people on board. nine crew members. we are an awaiting details in terms of more clarity about what happened to the 737 as it was flying to guangxi. >> all of the normal questions come to mind, phil terrain there. whether it is a problematic place to land.

what was the weather at the time of the landing >> reporter: correct >> it is so early in the situation that things will trickle in as they often do. you will update us >> reporter: joe, so you know, we typically see boeing shares sell off hard after a crash like this as details come in and people digest more about what happened, then the shares tend to, not rally, but stabilize and come back a little bit. the knee-jerk reaction is not uncommon with a plane crash. >> phil, keep us updated >> reporter: we will >> see you later in the show thanks phil lebeau with the latest there. coming up, we dig into the crude prices we have the pressure with the tune of 4% later, bill cassidy on the latest from washington to achieve energy independence.

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welcome back yemen's houthi rebels unleashing a missile strike on the saudi arabia oil yesterday setting off fires at the site and temporarily shutting oil

production at another. another sea based attack was thwarted speaking with reporters, aramco said it had no impact on oil supplies questions about the geopolitics. for what is driving crude this morning is our cnbc contributor. john kildare what do you make of the bounce back this morning? >> it still remains a concern in the market, kelly. good morning especially with the situation in the ukraine war and what will happen with the russian supplies eu is meeting this week. they may decide to embargo russian crude oil. that will be a big blow to the global market. how will they make up the barrels is anybody's guess

we are not getting help from anywhere >> reading the reuters piece, eu must impose sanctions on russian oil. do you think the prospect of the possible blocking of russian barrels driving crude this morning or is something else going on >> it is certainly that. it is a real possibility given the heinous acts of russia against ukraine, it is almost impossible how they don't do it at some point. the eu blocking barrels. the houthi rebel attack raised shackles in the market about that being an ongoing concern. as i alluded to before, the saudis and uae, united arab emirates are playing a strange game, playing footsy with russia they are not at this point acting to put more oil on the market when both of the

countries have significant spare capacity that they can easily tap. saudi arabia is not a good friend they claim to be. i had a problem over the years here we go again i would argue the price reaction, kelly, is measured as things look really bad with the ukraine war, you see that price surge. when things calm down, or a glimmer of hope, for rest cus resolution, they come down hard. >> the other options on the table are venezuela and iran and to the point of the houthi attack and the reported iranian firing missiles into iraq and near the consulate building or the houthi attack in saudi arabia this is a strange time of increased tensions when we were

on the brink of figuring out the nuclear deal and get iranian barrels back into the market is that coming into the price here >> no doubt. the iranians are beside themselves which is driving the attacks. the houthis are iranian backed that's iran, too with the russians saying and holding us up on the deal and dealing with iran not to be impacted which the state said it would not be under the deal, they are holding it up the iranian barrels that the market was counting on and we saw selloff on the near inking of the deal two weeks ago is a factor again that is helping to wush push pr higher this market needs barrels. any of those would help in keeping a lid on prices. to the extent we don't get that and foreclose russian supplies to europe. you are back to the worst-case

scenario 110. we will go through that like a hot knife through butter. >> john, when crude was correcting hard a week ago, we put the pieces together and new china lockdowns and that means something on the demand side that is a swing for demand in terms of global demand >> much so the russian supply to europe is the key to the market over the next several weeks if it keeps flowing to europe, we are should be okay. the chinese situation is helping to hold back prices very much. not only from the lockdowns from the coronavirus surge there and fierce reaction to it, but also the economy. the economic data has been relatively shaky of late manufacturing economy barely in expansion territory based on the pmi numbers we get every month that's a factor. this market is watching for what is happening in the u.s. and europe to the extent interest

rate hikes await us kick in and force a drag on the economy. not to mention the demand globally with the high prices. india and indonesia and asia which is energy intensive. they cannot handle the price increase it will be a drag on their demand. >> you said 110 like a hot knife through butter we are 109 already john, thank you. >> thank you coming up, investor mark mobius will join us to talk global opportunities in stocks down 141 points on the dow "squawk box" will be right back. live from the nasdaq site in times square >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it...

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welcome back, everybody. u.s. health experts are warning a highly contagious covid called ba.2 could lead to an uptick in cases. dr. fauci said it's 50% to 60% more contagious than omicron, but you won't get sicker. the shanghai disney resort announced yesterday it will temporarily close until further notice starting today. they're fighting their largest wave since they contained the initial outbreak centered in wuhan in 2020. yesterday mainland china rep reported 1,600 new cases

this was a big concern until the price action changed and now you wonder exactly what people are drawing from it. >> it's hard to know how long it's going to last so far oil is holding up, so it doesn't seem like it's the main thing driving it obviously. we'll stay on china. joining us is an investor who's seen things rise and fall for a number of decades. mark, you were just on not long ago, and what i remember is probably china could ben it from from chinese stocks on a relative basis to anywhere in the world. we have a lot of volatility in chinese stocks is. that still your call >> i think it's quite possible given the relationship they have with russia, providing they

don't go too far you always have the pushback from sanctions and mother nature around the world hopefully they'll get the gold and trade. if nobody else is trading with russia, there's an opportunity for them to trade. i would say it's positive, but they have to walk this tightrope and be careful with how they behavior. >> i wonder with the way you usually make decisions if one has been so tied to a geopolitical event thisy dependis, how china navigates this with russia right now. no one knows how it's going to play out at this point at this point they seem to be comfortable at least backing russia verbally, and maybe it goes beyond thachlt that would

result in sanctions a, and that could throw your whole thesis off. >> exactly while has the chinese market gone down so badly that's because of the crackdown by the government on big players like tencent, alibaba, and so on in addition you have the chinese government saying you have to give us proper accounts. so there have been delistings of chinese companies. that scares the heck out of u.s. investors. you have all these things working together to make the chinese market look very risky, but whey i'm saying is they probably will be able to work this out, and you're probably going to see a bottoming out of the chinese market but you're absolutely right. there is that risk that china backs russia to the hilt and, therefore, is going to be

subject to some sanctions or pushback from other nations around the world. >> your thought that china would try to stimulate things, lower interest rates and do all the things they've done in the past to get the economy moving. but, again, the backdrop is against what happened in uk ukraine. it seems like we won't know anything until it resolves itself let's say you've got investors who don't want to take that chance where else >> obviously we think india is a great opportunity. the indian markets come back a little bit there are great long-term opportunities in india then you want to go from europe. it can be brazil, south africa south africa is committing from the economies boom others that come to mind, taiwan, vietnam, korea there's lots of places you can go where you're not going to to

be impacted by the russia situation with the exception of oil prices, but as you know, they're able to sur mount the difficulties as they have in the past. >> think about oil and the hot inflation numbers. we get that around the world why not inflate? there are multiples that aren't sustained. if there's a time when you shouldn't be aggressive around the world, or that never enters your callculus. >> at the end of the day, if you're looking at inflation around the world, where do you hide the best place to hide is equities with companies who can line their products in line with

it pricing ability is very, very important when we look at these markets. of course, looked at is very important. if you focus on low debt, relatively good growth companies that are not going to be hamstringed by higher prices, higher costs, then you're going to be in pretty good shape in the long run. >> and gold. of course, you've been maybe not a gold bug, but you certainly think 10%. not crypto, even though you see the benefit of bitcoin for russia or for trouble spots around the world where it makes sense, but why not for gold investors? why gold over bitcoin? >> you know, i thought when this thing broke that the crypto economies would do well because russians would convert to crypto in order to convert their wealth into crypto tooend then get money out. as you know now, u.s. congress is beginning to look very carefully at a bill to stop

that, to deregulate crypto and go after those people using crypto to escape the sanctions so, yeah, crypto is fine for those people in trouble that can't get money out. generally speaking, i would prefer to have good equities, the earnings that are there and are going to be growing even in this environment. >> in the united states, what would be your investments of choice in the u.s. stockmarket >> first of all, anything that is good in technology. in other words, they're able to price their products in line with inflation of course, obvious ones like apple and others there are a lot of medium-sized companies in america that are doing very, very well. it's interesting to note that many of these companies have software engineers in eastern europe, and their stock prices have been hit badly as a result of that. their business is outside of eastern europe

their customers are in america, in western europe, in asia, and so forth so there are lots of these hidden opportunities in the u.s. market that could look very good. >> right we'll end it there, mark where are you now? where are you coming to us from? >> i'm now in dubai. i came back from singapore i was able to get to singapore two years after being locked up. i'm pacback in dubai. >> you're back in dubai. >> two years >> good place to be. >> mark mobius of capital path ne partners good to see you. hi, everyone you're watching cnbc "squawk box. the s&p is down 8, the nasdaq is down 49.

chinese authority is confirming reports that a passenger plane with 132 people onboard crashed today in a mountainous area in southern china cnbc has confirmed the plane was a boeing 737, not a 737 max. it was operated by china eastern airlines shares of boeing had been under pressure they were down as much as 8% they're down 6%. warren buffett and berkshire buying allegheny for $482.02 the share is valued at $11.6 billion. that's giving you my two cents there. >> well done mike santoli has been digging into today's market moves. what are you watching. >> 6% on the s&p 500 it was almost sized and the speed of it which maximized the uncertainty and expense as to whether this just about to

bottom it definitely checked off a lot of boxes also regained almost exactly half of the total losses from the january 3rd high another thing people have been watching, there's been this downtrend. you see the entire year's actions mostly contained under there. we popped above it they're all right in this clu cluster. they're close to the market, regaining the benefit of the doubt, maybe not quite there credit markets did firm up that was a big market worry as you the situation. you see there was this big underperformance of junk and it regained it all. now year to date, we're neck and neck credit spreads have not really worsened on a year to date basis. take a look at the volatility in index. however, history says when you've been above 30 for a couple of weeks and crack below

it, here we are in the mid-20s again. the forward implications for the stockmarket going out a few months at least, three, six, 12 months have tended to be positive the exception were the bear markets in 2000, 2002. you had a lot of them earning back we'll see how it goes this week. >> a significant week, ike by the way, four 1% moves back to back on the s&p, extremely unusual. the vix declined all of this happened after the fed not only hiked, but it was extremely cautious they're not putting race into positive territory for a couple of years, but really active to what most people thought, ethan harris was laughed at in january for saying there were going to be essentially hikes they come out and say that powell is as hawkish as -- i think we're going to to hear from him later today my point is who would have ever

thought that would be the market reaction we get to what happened last week. >> it's a pretty good remind eric kreminder, kelly. we had four months of saturating ourselves and people amping up to seven the two-year note yield has continued to go up actually 1.99 this morning we're talking a pretty aggressive number of hikes the point being, all the fed did was kind of ratify where the market had been to you can't say mission accomplished in terms of figuring out what the effects are going to be. but it's obvious the market had front run it. >> they say i can look at you this way. >> i know. there's a camera so close to me, i feel like katie couric i might be getting getting a cop

in a second. last week did you know it is how hawkish the other guys got we had a guy on here who said 50 bullards or something. >> yeah. >> neil has been pretty wrong about inflation and what needed to be done what are we doing? are we going to get a 50 >> well, goldman thinks it's more likely. >> yeah. and i think, first of all, it's no accident that once they make the decision, it's like, okay, let's get the word out there the markets seem to be wowing us to go faster sooner and then maybe pause and wait and see so i think the idea is they're going try to grab it as long as the markets allow for it that's why we're seeing this kind of litany of stump speeches in that direction. >> great. >> thanks.

thanks for getting up, too, and agreeing to do it. you guys are well. >> magic mike. coming up, president biden heading to brussels this week for a nato summit about russia's invasion of ukraine. we're going to talk to a former u.s. ambassador to nato straight ahead. and as we head to break, here's a quick check on crypto which is okay today. a little green it's not red stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: "squawk" picks is sponsored by wisdomtree, the mo modern alpha pioneer

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. president biden will be heading off. ivo daalder is the president of the council on global affairs. set the scene for what the president's objectives are here. with flow's going to be a preliminary call in preparation. what do you think, maybe, you

know, kind of on the agenda in terms of specifically the next steps in the treatment of this invasion >> well, thanks for having me. i think the most important thing that he is going to try to do is continue to maintain the unity of the european and transatlantic alliance, working closely with nato in order to shore up nato defenses, to ensure that putin realizes whatever happens in ukraine should and must not spread any further. he's going to talk to the g7 about strengthening sanctions. we've been ratcheting it up as the war has progressed i think that's going to continue there's a question whether nato should be prepared to think about doing anything more. the polls have suggested possible peace-keeping in ukraine. the u.s. has so far rejected that we have to talk about what happened if putin escalates

further. what happens if he uses chemical or biological agents they bombed an ammonia plant just overnight, releases a cloud of poison gas. he may even decide to use nuclear weaponsful i would expect him to sit down and say what are we going to do to make sure putin doesn't escalate any further and how do we get the alliance together to end this war as quickly as possible >> you mentioned the possibility of gaining more sanctions. we're three weeks in did the administration, nato expect after three weeks the sanctions would have necessarily altered behavior more than they have i'm wondering if there has to be some kind of transparent threshold for the next round of sanctions or for that matter laying out the conditions under which they might be eased. >> no, i don't think that nato expected or the u.s. expected that even the sanctions that

have been imposed, which you know are very, very significant and hurting the russian economy, that that's going to be enough in order to get the war to end but we do have to see the pressure to continue to increase there is more that we can do on sanctions, particularly on oil and gas, which is, of course, the mainstay of the russian economy. and then it has to be -- as you say, it has to be clear there are certain things putin needs to do before those sanctions get turned down again or at least relaxed in some way at the very least until and unless putin withdraws all russian forces from ukraine i don't think anything's going to happen in terms of lesser sanctions while increasing pain on russia even more. >> you mentioned polls seem to support more active direct role in ukraine, whether peacekeeping

or something else. should they be dictated by public opinion at this point they've been relatively disciplined. is there any disagreement within the alliance about what level of involvement we should be having from here? >> well, there's some disagreement, of course. the poles live in a different world. the poles are right on the border they've already received over 2 million refugees into their country. there's a direct real economic and humanitarian impact. missiles have been exploding within miles of their territory. so they're going to be pushing to try to figure out ways to end this war sooner rather than later. biden and i think the rest of nato including the poles is they realize they don't want a direct c military confrontation with russia they're going to be like what

can we do without necessarily getting the united states and nato dragged into this war it's a very tough balancing act because it changes depending on what the russians are doing when you see the kind of mass bombardment they've been inflicting on mariupol or worse when you see weapons of mass destruction or even nuclear weapons. then the calculation changes of what the risks are and perhaps the need for action. >> given that president zelenskyy has already said, you know, nethe future moment when ukraine might have been headed into nato is now essentially moot, is there any self-reflection, do you think, i a among nato members about super expansion that it was counterproductive to put these countries on that path or is there no time for that in the crisis >> i don't think there's time for that in the crisis

the poles are extremely happy to be part of nato. in fact, the you yan krahns have made it very clear if they were part of nato, this would have never happened what he's saying is it shouldn't stand in the way wlrk there's a diplomatic solution or not the key here is re-establishing the full territory and sovereignty. ukraine has no interest to do anything of the kind diplomatically that's the problem the problem is russia has invaded the neighboring country that did not pose a threat in an unprovoked manner, and we see the results. >> we do ev ivo, thank you very much. coming up we'll talk with senator bill cassidy and the situation in ukraine check out oil price this morning, jumping on news that the eu is considering a russian

oil sanction "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: "squawk box" is sponsored by bitwise, the world'wo world's leader in crypto index funds.

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a both 737 operated by china eastern airlines has crashed there were 132 members and nine staff. the jet was not the 737 max. china cleared the 737 max for return to service this past december after it had been grounded following two fatal crashes. authorities are saying it's a 737. that's all we know at this point. the shares are down 6% they had been down 8%. the dow is down 75 points. it had been down 150, 180, something like that. >> the dow decline at this point is almost all the boeing move. >> yeah. >> with a war raging

a positive week last week. >> absolutely. >> no matter what happens, you keep hearing neutrality and lan bridge between donbas and crimea i don't know how you -- talking to mobius about china, how do you make any decisions none of this was supposed to be happening in the 21st century. >> how about how markets are back to the way they were before the invasion >> we never got that low now it's come back. >> great point. >> otherwise, not much of an effect it seems like the market is going toward that script where there is sort of a sharp reaction to the downside, lasting a matter of weeks until

people figure out there's some kind of equilequilibrium. >> it's also weird to see the oil price get to a normal price. >> we were at 100 for a few years 20rk 1 2011 to 2014. >> today's price is about a thousand we'll return after a quick break here crude oil is about $109 a barrel stay with us

an update on the covid outbreak in china. the shanghai disney said they would temporarily close starting today. china is fighting its biggest wave since it contained the biggest outbreak centering on wuhan in 2020. shanghai has shuttered schools and launched a citywide testing program. disney is trying to tamp down employee unrest over its refusal to publicly oppose a

sc bill barring schools from discussing gender. there will be a town hall focused on gender issues, a platform disney has previously used to discuss black representation, violence against asian americans, and any anti-semitism. today's town hall comes after the ceo told employees in an email last week that disney was not sorry -- or was sorry for not being an ally in equal rights, adding it's increasing its support for advocacy groups in terms of the don't say gay bill in over state and also pausing all political donations in the state of florida and also if you've seen the pieces about

i iger -- >> he said initially he was going to stick around and make sure he helped out and it was not appreciated that. >> months before that, he said, finally he was about to handle -- >> after he said three times iger was going to leave and he stayed on. what do you make of the timing of the publication of their spat, joe? what do you mean into that could it mean iger is coming back now >> i don't -- i look at disney in a multi-faceted way and chai nachlt they're a pretty sharp competitor to comcast. we've got a lot of history in comcast. i'm a homer. i like comcast if you i don't have butter beer at your theme park, why go

there. have you had butter beer at harry potter >> i've been to both i don't need to get that song in my head again. it's a brave world it's a small world after all. if you're wondering the impact of the lockdowns in china, de-min news actually a bigger drag from western europe than from china or asia or anywhere else still to come, wheel speak with senator bill cassidy on the latest and dr. scott gottlieb rointhe spread of ohm con to eupe and how it can impact the summer in the u.s. we're back with "squawk box" after this girls...

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the national association of business is kicking off. steve liesman is there and joins us with a special guest. good morning, steve. >> i'm joining by former bang of england, bank of canada governor, currently u.n. special

envoy for climate. i have interviewed you for every position you have. >> yes, you have steve. >> this completes the hat trick. high inflation going into the ukraine vision, higher inflation coming as a result of it, with the potential for a demand shocking on the back end, but mostly a supply shock. central banks around the world, your former central bank, bank of england, bank of canada, the u.s. fed, they're all raising interest rates is it the appropriate response >> it is the environment is different from when i was governor the real question is how much stimulus to provide, not whether to pre provide stimulus. now because of these series of supply shots, we have sustained a broz-based inflation central banks need to react, have begun to react, but this is

the way to go. >> u.s. just started, and they're talking about quarter-point increases. do you feel they're fast enough? >> two things. to keep to the supply shock story, the uk had the additional supply shock in terms of the fed, getting rates up toward 2% by the end of the year, you know, it's the right path, but i suspect it keeps going. after that there will be balance sheet adjustment as the chair mentioned last week in his press conference they'll have to feel their way a bit, but the direction is clear. >> goldman sachs talking about a terminal rate of 3% or 3.5%. is that something that makes sense to you for the u.s. >> a couple of things. you're going to have to get the fed funds rate into positive real territory you're not going to get there with a real rate and secondly, i think on balance

-- and i'll be talking about this tomorrow here on balance, the equilibrium rate has gone up. in part because of the investment boom we're seeing in energy. >> i'll get back to that in a second you were involved in the financial crisis with a whole lot of global central banking efforts. when you look at what's happening now with the global financial system coming together to cut off russia, how you do view that? is that something you would expect to have happened really ac relative to freezing the assets? >> it's something that can be done relativel but the precedent is not something that's easy. it's a big change and it does

have medium term implications. >> let me get to the question of climate finance right now. does it seem at the moment as if the priority was in the wrong place, that when we went to issues of removing financial -- trying to move finances over to sustainable and renewable energies that we forgot about the issue of global security and internal security? >> well, i think certain continents or one continent forgot about them and downplayed them it's obvious to some of us at the time it's obvious to everyone now. >> you see in the european response to this and you'll see in other jurisdictions that security and sustainability largely come together. if you have american sun, american wind, american hydro, american nuclear, american storage, american storage

technology, so that mix of low cost, low carbon, energy, that's what gives you energy security you're going to see an acceleration of this yes, there's a role for lng and others, but as a bridge, it's part of a bigger question. >> joe kernen has a question for you. >> i was going to ask you the same way climate finance the way it's been done in certain arenas is almost an oxymoron it was anti-oil and gas and fossil fuel financing. but if you want to do gas, even if you concede natural gas is important, you've got to drill, open up glands, do what's necessary to support the global energy dynamic for the next 20 years, and it's definitely been a hindrance.

i've got an dozen tweets when you move to quickly to esg -- >> a couple of things, joe first off, you saw the fall-off in u.s. drilling in 2014/2015. that came on the heels of an overexpansion, too much capital pouring into shape capital, shale gas in saudi, particularly crude. let's not forget what happened after that that's the big story in terms of u.s. energy production the latter half of the last decade, which is part of what's put us here the second thing is this is a transition this is not about flipping a green switch we've always been clear about this this is a 25-year process. whether you're developing oil, developing gas, developing conventional energy sources, it's that horizon over which you're building them out so the two are absolutely reconcilable and they are reconciled and that's what you see aspart of the transition

but you can't as part of that walk away from the big adjustment that's happening on the climate side and so you can -- look, we can walk and chew gum at the same time. >> i don't know. how about brexit did it surprise you that the dire forecast that you had -- i mean, it's gone pretty well, has it not has your view on that at all evolved? >> our job was to put them in a financial position so the officials could negotiate whatever brexit deal they could or desired it didn't go to the most extreme version of brexit, but what we have seen with it has been a supply shock it has had an impact in terms of trajectory or uk exports or uk growth in fact, exactly what we said was going to happen was the exchange rate would go down, the

inflation would go up and the economy would slow has been what's happened in the uk, but the financial system has been there as part of the solution. >> i want to get back to the question joe asked, which is, are you concerned we get to a place where the change is needed for climate change become politically unpopular in part because prices are so high and then you look at what happened to sarah bloom raskin who publicly came out and said -- opposed some finance of energy products by the federal reserve and had to resign or walk away from her nomination. what about the politics of this? is that going to be something that inhibits things in this regard >> i think the politics of the energy transition, what needs to happen, whether it's canada, the united states, and europe, is to take a step back, think about where we're going to be in three, five years and ten years and beyond because the big investments that are needed to move the dial from -- away from coal, away from russian gas

toward machine competitive sources of energy, they take three to five years to really hit. and so that's a trajectory that gives an opportunity. it's hard to say sometimes, but that gives an opportunity for a greater consensus around where energy policy needs to be, respecting energy security first. but seeing that sustainable and clean energy has a big role to play in that. >> tomorrow you're going to get the paul volcker award, which raises the question -- chairman powell asked the question. would you do what volker did in the early '80s, get control of inflation. do you see that? do you think the central bank is going to have to get control and raise rates above the neutral rate to get above inflation? >> i think chairman powell and the fed will do what's necessary.

they're operating in a different environment than chairman volker was with respect to the lower level equilibrium rates. i do think they need go above that equilibrium rate it ice a different labor market it's a different economy than it was. all of that helps, but history is rhyming, without a question the last thing i'll say just to go back to our exchange on climate. paul volcker recognized the impact paul volcker was an advocate of tough climate policies because he foresaw what needed to be done. >> gary gensler is coming up with rules today. >> they have a consultation coming out on climate exposure rules to be clear on that. and from press reports it looks like it will be in the main filings and the 10ks and it will be what companies are doing around these issues, particularly to seize the opportunities around the energy transition the reason they're doing that is investors, 130 trillion --

that's trillion with a "t" is demanding this type of closure this is what investors want, but really to make money. >> all right mark carnie, thanks for joining us this morning. joe, back to you at nasdaq. >> yes like jay clayton's piece, the s.e.c. climate overreach there's two sides to this one. thank you for that, steve. coming up, yemen's houthi rebels unlyric one of their most intensemy aisle drone strikes on saudi arabia's area, temporarily shutting oil production. no one died in the bombing and another base attack was thwarted nasser said it had no impact on the oil price, but all prices are up today.

goll', we're going to go to this energy operation warp-speed. it's the name our next guest has given. he's looking at a russian-free energy future. joining us now, louisiana senator bill cassidy i expect we might hear of a little bit different view on some of these issues >> by the way, there's a lot of commonality between what we might say. there will be a transition but iea estimates there will be increased use of oil and natural gas worldwide through 2050 now, if you're speak of a transition where in 25 years you don't need oil and gas, you don't know how to make plastic you're not aware many folks around the world will not have access go the critical minerals.

but on the other hand, the point made is there's a nexus between energy, climate, economy, and national security, and right now we're losing all four because we've not paid attention to all four. >> senator, the expectation tissue order president biden introduced on the 27th, usg has been around for two or three years, and they would proudly point to the fallout and financing toward fossil fuel development and that we need to leave these things in the ground, and that was -- they were kind of happy that they were succeeding, and now at this point i'm hearing, no, no, nothing was ever done. it had to do with the shale drop-off, the pandemic shutdown and drilling in 2020 which is it? were we trying to cut off financing? we had a fed official whose

stated objective was to make it harder for fossil fuel companies to raise money and the objective was to leave them in the ground. >> certainly they're trying to deminimize the kind of 5,000 cuts they were doing with fossil fuel and they were certainly leaning into the you should not finance this by the way, they were contributed to that by not permitting pipelines or permitting drillen leases, it became more is expensive i'll go back to what mr. carney was saying earlier there will be a transition, but we need to pay attention to the nexus of energy, climate conference, and national security you mentioned at the outside my oop racing -- "operation warp

speed. if we were to stay in line, we could enable permitting of renewells, but on -- on carbon cap but to lower prices and keep europe from freezing next winter. >> if we're involved in all of the above energy policy, i don't see how you would try to ration capital so that it favors one versus the other you should be doing all of the above. just like we say, if we're going to to walk and chew gum at the same time, you shouldn't be trying the market on how to dictate the pace and speed of the transition because a lot of the renewable sources are not ready for prime time and the only people it's going to hurts are the letter countries you look at what happened with europe

i don't know how much was emboldened by having them over a bail. >> i have a friend who is in fossil fuel. he does natural gas experts and he's from the northeast. he said he could not go into his dinner club, and if he mentioned he was in fossil fuel, there's a certain kind of standoffishness that occurs. there's been a soecial pressure, a declase. they've been ill-prepared and american consumers are paying more for gasoline. i will emphasize there's a common ground. last time on operation war speed, it's on our website, we can do more for blue hydrogen,

utilityings out. >> do you think -- i don't know what cow call it it's a despite guest, and it informs all discussions about this would that change if people were paying thousands of dollars for gas? would that change. >> you know, in your interview with carney, you brow up the incredibly prescient argument. i've been told germans might pay 5,000 to 6,000 euros more next kwleer for the various forms of energy which they purchased. you will lose political support. similarly in the united states, if people continue to pay $4 to $6 for gasoline, you're going to lose political support nr anything that would otherwise be perceived as raising the cost of

gas. if you really care about the climate, you need to do something about the cost that's the way you continue to support the political aspect of this. >> is china going to cooperate to the same extent that we're being asked to in europe and the united states? you know, it could all be for naught i don't know the whole thing has gotten a little bit -- the pendulum has swung a little bit too far and we're feeling it, senator. "operation warp speed. we'll have you back on to talk about whether that goes forward. certainly natural gas. we've neglected that to some extent and lng transport you have to drill for it to get the natural gas. this is just rational. >> yes by the way, china will use our

natural gas instead of coal which lphes greenhouse gas emissions. >> thanks you, senator soy about lsu. we'll be right back.

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welcome back, everybody. china's aviation authority confirming reports that a passenger plane with 132 people onboard crashed today in a mountainous area in southern china. our phil lebeau has been following the story this morning and he joins us with the latest. phil >> kelly, we have more questions than answers at this point regarding the china eastern boeing 737 which crashed into a mountainous region in southeastern china early this morning. we have seen some video of debris on a mountainside in china, but other than that, we don't have much information. we know this was a plen that's about 6.8, 6.9 years old, relatively long. it had cfm-56 engines. that's a workhorse in the boeing 737 family by the way, cfm engines, a joint

venture between savran and general election tick. we reached out and we have are no details as they investigate what may have happened with this plane. as for boeing, we have reached out to boeing. it's important to stress this was not, was not a 737 max those planes, while they have been approved to fly again in china, none of them that are currently over there have entered commercial service this was a boeing 737 800, again, about seven years old other than that, guys, we don't have much information other than the fact it had rapidly lost power and was a deep descent into the mountain. otherwise we know there were 132 people onboard chinese investigators are trying to get to the skooen to see what they can recover as far as the black box, the flight data recorder, and try to piece together what may have happened to this plane. >> boeing shares were down this morning, down a little less than

6%, phil continue to keep us posted in the meantime, you're at launch event for general motors. tell us what's the latest with that. >> well, for gm, it's all about going electric today we're here in the plant in springville, tennessee, outside nashville. for this, cadillac lyriq, it's coming to market in the second quarter. they're going to be having reservations they'll be opening up them unon may 19th it's built on the ultium battery platform and this is toward electric vehicles rapidly over the next seven to eight years as they try to really catch up when it comes to electric vehicles

they're not in the game when it comes to chief competitor tesla. take a look at this. tesla dominates the market then voelkswagen, ford take a look at this. they've got a slew of e.v.s coming out, and that's the importance of cadillac lyriq it's going to be transitioning the cadillac name plate toward all electric vehicles and they believe this is just the beginning, guy, of what i they will be a rampant expansion of electric vehicles. >> although, phil, the real question is going to be can we keep up even with electric vehicle demand as you know all the suppliers are way behind the curve people are complaining a guy said he wishes he could pay $6 a gallon for gas and get

on with his trip. >> to that point, adam jonas is out this morning he's cutting his e.v. production and salesforce production not only for ge, but ford. ford said, we're going to have 2 million e.v.s on sale by 2026. jonas said, no way 500,000. that has to do with the supply chain. analysts are scratching their heads saying not sure where all the automakers think they're going to get everything they need to ramp up production. >> excuse me did you say 500,000 or 900,000 >> he has put his estimate at 500,000 for ford electric vehicles but 2026. remember, ford has put a production out there for 2 million electric vehicles by 2026 so he does not think they're going to get there by the way, he has general motors at 300,000 electric vehicles by 2025. >> what's the -- e.v.s are what

percentage, phil, total? >> for the industry, the united states, 3%, 3.5%. >> 5% or 3%? >> i'm sorry, joe. 3.5%. >> gm 5% of -- >> 5% of that 3.5%, correct. >> but elon's not at the white house talking about this mary barra is. >> i knew you would go there look, that is a separate question that's one to ask the biden administration. >> that's weird. what -- i've got to do my decimal. 5% of 3% okay, anyway, phil, you get -- you caught my drift. thank you. appreciate it. >> i understand what you're saying. >> i know. up next, dr. scott gottlieb on the covid stuff w.erein lie the futures right "squk awbox" will be right back.

welcome back it's a little after 8:00 in noncht you're watching "squawk box" from the market sight in times square i'm canny evans with joe kernen and mike santoli becky and andrew are both off. futures are look better than they were an hour ago. the nasdaq is down ten points, the dow is down 7 points

the lion's share of that, boeing. let's get to kayla tausche with the very latest out of the white house on the situation there. kayla? >> reporter: well, kelly, here's where things stand on the ground right now. russian forces trying to lay claim to the first city, mariupol russia is demanding ukraine surrender the city to let remaining civilians flee, but the ukrainian prime minister said surrender is not an option. in the capital city of kyiv where heavy shelling has continues, u.s. fishlgs have suggested russia is changing tac tactics, changing its goal of complete capture but simply recognizing control of other parts of the country nato's secretary-general was asked yesterday whether such a demand would reward russia's

actions. >> ukraine is an independent sovereign nation and i have full trust in president zelenskyy and making right judgments of what kind of peace talks they should engage in and what kind of agreements they can agree to >> president zelenskyy calling for a complete trade saying we warned your politicians that this is dangerous when moscow decide as what natural gas you get and at what price. we said sanctions were needed to prevent this war the occupier should not get a single euro. president biden expects to he to belgium and poland to meet with world leaders. he said heading russia off is simply impossible. kelly? >> kayla tausche, thank you. stocks rebounded in more than a year, recouping less than half of the s&p 500's correction

losses and hinting that investors might have largely anticipated a more aggressive fed before that first rate hike was official mike santoli is looking at whether the market move is a bottom or just a bounce. what do you think, mike? >> it's right on the borderline. on the s&p 500, it looks like there's a little more behind it in terms of demand making a better case. take a look at the nasdaq composite. while a great week last week, it's got a lot more to prove here it has not regained more than about a third or less than 40% of its total losses. the peak we're talking about is back in november it's not january 3rd so obviously very violent snapback, but maybe a little bit more that has to be done on the upside to prove that now, the fact that it's been a complete nasdaq stocks has actually made it easier to beat the s&p 500. take a look at the equal weighted russell 1000s this is more or less equal

wasted that's a pretty big margin of performance year to date by the equal rated russell 1000 relative to the market weighted s&p. we talked about last week about how they had a horrible one. it's been easier to find stocks beating the s&p this year. now, some of the hardest hit areas, take a look at the longer term chart of the retail investor favorite groups or disrupted growth areas cloud competing, downline retail and sports betting iechlts fascinating how they've been basically the same chart down huge off their highs. it's a huge year it shows you the pandemic peaks. probe why they have throttled back on their activity not quite as much fun as it was last year. >> there's so many interesting things going on. we started to see this kind of flip in a lot of the rk stuff and chinese tech stuff last week, but is the bigger story

like we were talking with stephanie linke this morning you said nvidia was up 24% we've got adobe. that's been a favorite is tech kind of -- what's happening here there' percolations, don't you think? >> absolutely. the hardest hit most aggressive stocks that got big rallies, every rally starts because people lean too far to the negative side but they're more about a quality within tech. so they have the euro term earnings and balance sheet that are a little more than projections of hopes and dreaming trading at 15% to 20% times sales. >> what do you think of this, mike investors are piling back into u.s. stocks betting that the domestic equity market can withstand better than other parts of the world they're avoiding europe because of the war in ukraine, avoiding

a scanted china because of the new lockdowns. i mean that's actually happening. the war is door far away from us i threshold goldman sachs said we're underestimating. >> last week i think it's about commodity prices and what it does to inflation. not so much about the events but how they get conveyed to the economic story. >> it's very bizarre i guess i didn't realize art kessen -- i don't think he was the first one to say this. the world can only end once and not likely to happen black market events, most of the time you compartmentalize those

and make a callus culus about i >> we already were at very skp expensive valuations. >> it happened before that. >> inflation was high, absolutely. >> most of the damage was before but if you really were -- if you're a worry wart or if you're anxious, there's a lot to worry about. >> you wouldn't be a good investor. >> there always is. >> not -- you know, nuclear armageddon, mike i thought that was gone. i remember it when i was a kid and i thought it wouldn't be back, but it kind of is. >> german inflation is 25%. >> the iii after ww is not likely, but obviously. we haven't talked about it in a long time. joining us , mohamedmohamed

all of the suffering is unbelievable and the horrific things happening, but to bring it back and say it depends whether we get a quarter point or 50 basis point rise in rates, that's the irony of what we try to do every day. >> it is look, there's three distinct things going on. as kelly says, it's a world of so many interesting development. one is what's happening with the fed, and the fed is playing catch-up, so the war was never going to derail the first hike, nor would it derail the next couple of hikes.

after that is stagflation. we're less exposed then we have a third element you and is i have been talking about for a while, the strength of the technicals they're tightening but still very loose it's a confusing world because you have these three major things going on. >> do you, mohamed, at this point -- i guess obviously it's 33, 33, 33 you've got inflation, the fed, and geopolitical events, and you've got to somehow give a weight to each one of those things what's the most important? >> so i think the most important is that we are likely to see a policy mistake that's what the most important is and that's why when i look at how well the market has done over the last week, my own

inclination is to use the rally to lighten up on risk because i think that's just too much of a probability of a policy mistake, and we can't ignore what's happening to the global economy. >> mohamed, are we still in a dip-buying mode? are the multiples going to contract are we selling to some of the strength, or you just have to be selective? >> you certainly have to be selective. i would sell into some of the strength as a general approach, but you have to be really selective because this is going to be a world of great differentiation. there's three headlines going on there. one is a global stagflation or shock. two is massive dispersion within and across countries, and i completely agree that this notion that you should fade the

u.s. for europe, no. i've said no over and over again. the time hasn't come for that. and then the third element is what's happening within certain segments so you really have got do be very selective, but overall, if you have a very high exposure to risk assets. the market has given you an opportunity to lightle up a little bit here. >> mohamed, very good. appreciate it. thanks we'll see you as we do just about every week, i think. coming up, dr. scott gottlieb on the covid stealth variant, ba.2. stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back should we be preparing for a new wave in the u.s. let's ask dr. scott gottlieb he's the former fda commissioner and a cnbc contributor great to have you back just anecdotally speaking after a quiet six weeks suddenly every time i turn around somebody's popping up with covid, but we're seeing almost no economic impact how do you foresee this all playing out? >> look. i think this is going to be a real test whether or not we're going to be able to cope with this while protecting the vulnerable there are things we can do to get better protection in to vulnerable americans i would make a hard push to make

sure people in nursing homes are vaccinate and up to date and have been vaccinated recently, heading into what's likely to be a spike in infections heading in the spring prevalence is lower, nine cases per 100,000 a day. we haven't been at these low levels since last june we're likely to see a wave as ba.2 has become more prevalent the good news -- the final point is the good news is we're seeing declines in europe right now it's not really a trend yet. we don't have a definitive in germany, you're seeing cases come down on a week-by-week basis. spikes in cases are starting to subside. it would confirm our notion that this is likely to be a mild spring as we head into summer.

>> everyone has been lifting mandates, mask mandates, tests requirements, and so forth do you expect any of that to be coming back? >> no, i would not not if the absent something new, a new variant that pierces it, there's nothing like that on the or horizon. there's always aing are something like that will emerge. the risk is this continued uptick in cases. as we lift the restriction, case people interact more ba.2 is 30% to 50% more cases. people who escaped omicron are likely to be affected by this mini wave of infection it's light compared to what we're seeing in europe

we hikerly to see an uptick, but we're at low levels. i don't think it's enough to change the policy restriction. i don't think you're going to see them slip back on some of the restrictions the only thing you might see is an extension on the mask mandate. i expect the federal government may be rew luck tanlt to lift it if there are upticks they may extend it a couple of weeks. >> is this is -- a significant update what's the word? endemic? >> yeah. the virus becoming a more routine part of life unfortunately. look, i think this is going to be a real test to cope with the virus while protecting the vulnerable and having some sense of normalcy around our daily lives. we likely to see a deco

decouplinging. many have been infected or protected themselves from vaccination. i suspect during this bump-up of infections, we're likely to see an uptick. that's what people are going to look at. if you see cases g up but you don't see hospitalizations go up in any substantial way, that's going to give policy members some sense of assurance. >> will it ever be like a universal cold, universal rhino virus vaccine? this is corona, but any way that that is something to hope for so it's not endemic every year? could there be a universal covid that works on -- can we find something that's conserved in the virus itself and make a

vaccine against that >> there's a chance for it but the regions are those that undergo adaptations. it's hard to find aconserved part that's going to stimulate a robust immune response not impossible, but hard we've been talking an universal flu vaccine for 25 years now we certainly talked about it a lot when i was in the government for 21 years and it's five yearyear away and we still don't have it. right now a lot is going on. it's focusing on trying to give a better presentation of the spike protein, a more durable presentation of the spike protein to the immune system so the vaccine provides robust immunity for about six months. hopefully a future iteration can provide it for a longer period of time.

>> thank you for your time great to see you this morning. coming up, apple is focus with key supplier in china, starting to come back online after those covid disruptions. we'll ask a top analyst about the impact, and he has an interesting call on a new business model there are the faang stocks premarket apple, slightly negative same for amazon and netflix. alphabet showing some gains. wee ckn mont 'rba ia me >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. is uso create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪

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berkshire hathaway is adding to its portfolio. they're purchasing al guy nay. they operate in a number of different businesses including wholesale, and allegheny led general re the deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of this year. >> can we just dwell on this for an extra second because it's a real sign of the times stock is up 14% going into the day. it doesn't sound amazing, but $5,013 a share it's been aincredible buffet is once again the wealtht you look at what's happened with meta and facebook shares you know, this was a dinosaur

company that's having -- >> it's the third time in its tenure $750 billion-plus market cap again and it's buying -- allegheny has always been one of these mini berkshires, using the same model, harvesting insurance and cashing in on other stuff. good thing he's acquiring it portfolio, big quality blue chips. owns 5% of apple, keep that in mind that's a stock that's held its own more than others. >> we shouldn't gloss over the fact that allegheny and others have thrived with it >> are his guys really good like he is? >> they're stock pickers primarily, right that this is not all warren anymore, is it

>> right. >> but dthe demise of berkshire again was greatly exaggerated. this is a perfect company for him. prints money insurance is a darn good business. >> i keep getting calls about insurance. >> someone wants to pay my funeral expenses. >> allegheny owns a funeral -- >> i think, do i have to die for this to pay off? they have a hard time with that question >> you can throw yourself a funeral beforehand. >> they finally say, yeah, you have to die. so you call me then they ask how old i am i say a 112. that wouldn't be a good customer they can't am tore tiez. that's why they hang up.

they're like, this guy's going tomorrow. disney is trying to tamp down the unrest over schools discussing gender issues with children they'll host a companywide town hall the town hall comes after ceo bob chapek told employees he was soy he was not stronger when it comes to rights. it's also pausing all political donations in the state of florida. but, again, a kind of interesting coincident development here is this tension between chapek and iger, which there's a great piece on cnbc.com about and really coming down to questions about chapek's authority and some missteps people believe he has made, this

being one of them. >> a fumbled hand-off or it was fitful not givening full control at the outset and maybe differences in style that's a different thing as well when you have somebody run a company as bob iger did for 16 years? he came in '05 it's his culture and mode. >> the one thing sherman says he has is higher e.q. strat. -wise, chapek is pursuing more or less of what iger wanted to do, disney plus, pushing streaming. >> and having all the content, it seems like it's logical, even if it is -- arguably it was a tough time to get handed the company not because of just the

pandemic but also the streaming economics were not quite there and you had to have faith it was going to pay off. >> fair point. disney shars hat a tough year but a lot to contend with. >> you would think disney was iger. >> you cannot diminish what he did there. >> i'm just telling you that it was was eisner. >> that's fine it could be both they were buying -- have you ever heard of a real estate called ar vida disney had no idea michael eisner came in, and this thing -- iger just rose on -- iger rode on eisner's coattails. he did i remember. >> what about the acquisition -- >> both of you thought that barry bbar barry bonds and ken griffey jr.

were the finlt first in their fs to play. >> i'm not a baseball expert >> it might be you >> i'm closer to -- >> did you know he landed on the moon i watched it whoopi goldberg -- coming up, more of today's top corporate stories plus a deeper dive into the markets. you do get -- you know, it's bad enough your organs start going, but you know a few things. that's all i'm going to tell you. the dow's on its first five-week winning streak of 2020 tip stay tuned there's much more "squawk" straight ahead

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we're following the news of the crash of a chinese east both 737 plane. phil lebeau joins us with the latest hi, phil. >> reporter: chinese investigators are going to the crash site right now trying to get a better sense of what happened to this china eastern boeing 737 that crashed in southeastern chai nachlt it's an aircraft, by the way, just under 7 years old, and it's our understanding that this has a safe track record when you look at this type of aircraft

the cmx engines have a strong safety record as does the 737-800. china is a country that has improved and strong safety records when it comes to civil aviation add that all up, and you have an air karat that did a very rapid descent in mid-flight with no distress call as far as we can tell electrical power working a lot of this doesn't add up i've talked with all kol of vev -- a couple of veteran aviation expert they're trying to figure out how it crashed and why back to you. >> why we're focused on exactly what model this was, not only is this plane 7 years old, we think, but obviously this model

of 737 is ubiquitous, essentially, in the skies for many years now so we have a sense of its overall record. >> absolutely. it has a very strong track record as do the engines that are on this plane. the cmx engines. you put the two together doesn't add up at this point there's no indication based on what little information we have that there was something that, you know, went wrong here. we don't know what that was that caused the crash but it's very strange at this point, mike. >> all right, phil appreciate it. i know you'll keep us posted coming up, how much has apple been hurt by supplier shutdowns in china as that country tries to contain covid outbreak d so dantinoggi will join us

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welcome back, everybody. let's take a quick check on

markets. we're seeing right across the board not deep losses but boeing is a big decleaner the s&p is down 5 points the 2-year is above 2% and some of them are attributing his speech as part of the reason when he's talking about six rate hikes this year, he's talking about with one that just happened he's a little bit more dovish. he acknowledges that in his speech where he says the original outlook -- he says i pencilled in six i recognize i'm toward the bottom of the distribution toward my colleagues but he cites elevated levels of uncertainty. more than just the headlines might be making it sound like,

mike. >> six quarter-point hikes is what he's talking about. he means -- >> yes, yes. >> -- quarter points. foxconn says it's mostly back to normal following covid-related disruptions. toni sacconaghi. he focuses on advertising advantages and says placing advertisements inside apps could produce more each year toni, good to see you this morning. >> thanks for having me. >> on the production side t rule in general seems to be with app thal you kind of buy reports of supply disruptions because they tend not to really underline the longer-term story. have we seenanything that should cause us concerner production and iphone supplies and things like that

>> well, look. i think it's important to realize apple has been contending with this for several quarters now their total revenues were impacted by more than $6 billion because of supply chain constraints that everyone is facing in the industry they expected that to be much better this quarter or less of an impact. obviously the covid rise create an impact. it feels as though apple has been able to manage it on it specifically it is dynamic. apple has hundreds of suppliers in other parts of china, and so, you know, this is a dynamic situation, but i think it is important to put in context that

the broader supply chain availability issues were actually getting better through the course of this quarter. >> and apple shares, of course, they're better than the overall. nasdaq down 10% from the highs overall nasdaq 100 down like 14%. but you do focus on the advertising sideingredients of a in. >> sure. i think there are some incremental possibilities. apple doesn't talk much about its advertising business, but it has two important components the first is that it sells advertising on the app store these are largely displayades so if you type in a search, you'll

be prompted with an ad that's a roughly $4 million business the other part is indirect google pays, we believe, about $15 billion last year, $20 billion this year to be the default search engine on ios we think apple has incremental advertising opportunities for itself they introduced the app-tracking changes last year that's had an ee fechlkt facebook has talked a lot about that that's diminished the information advantage that other networks have. and relatively speaking, apple's advantage has improved

the question is can it use that in a way to expand its own advertising business, and we think one of the ways that it could is by acting as an audience network, which means it could help advertisers place ads within third-party applications, which is not something apple does today, and we think that could potentially be an incremental and sizeable opportunity for apple. >> would there be any concern considering they did make those changes for a third-party for those with apple taking advantage or does apple not possess that same information either >> well, what apple has done is given users the option to say whether they'll be tracked or not. and that's made it much more difficult to build user profeeds pro profiles

apple because of a programming interface it has, it's able to in some cases collect better information about cohorts of consumers. apple is pretty good about not building individual profiles, but that has provided it with an incremental advantage in terms of really understanding the efficacy of ads and how they're being placed ironically, apple, which is really a staunch advocate of privacy, right now in some cases actually does have better information about the efficacy of ad campaigns. and it can take that and choose to leverage that and expand its advertising business going forward. >> better relative to those players that have had their ability degraded by the privacy changes, i guess, toni thanks very much great per speckspective on it. >> thanks for having me, mike. i'm looking at a k nbc report in 2019, disney was 123, iger

had been there three years but the return was 300%. eisner was 1300% >> when iger took over, stock was down from seven years ago. >> 1900%. >> you mean there was a disney ceo who didn't know when to leave. >> he had trouble picking a successor. >> as you mentioned, he made the company subject of hostile tak takeover. >> but disney was a has-been they were growing stuff that -- and then it became 1900% that's all i'm saying. i think pixar overpaid some of the "star wars" stuff that grew into valuations and it looks smart.

coming up, jim cramer's first take on the trading day. coming up, you can catch us on the cnbc app. >> how did jim come wndo on this one? we'll find out ♪♪ ♪♪ take the world by cloud. accenture let there be change. ♪ ♪

nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this. people are taking financial advice from memes. [baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ e*trade now from morgan stanley. ♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules and redefining the game... ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. (applause) ♪ ♪

opportunity is setting a goal... ...and charting a course to get there. sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity... ...is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. let's get you to the new york stock exchange. jim kramer joins us.

i argue with these young winner sappers, barry bonds versus barry bonds. you remember disney before i ger t iger they were up schitt's creek, which i can say because it's a tv show. do you remember the stock in the 10, 12 years that -- >> i was hopin

it was the evaluations and a pretty good move what is going on it started all of this. >> yeah. that's an open question. and this kind of what happened last week, i think, is very sad because there's a lot of people who view disney as being the most forward-looking place in

terms of gay,l lesbian it was a black mark. definitely a black mark. what bob did is bought the different brands and movies and monetizing them. it's working. >> yeah. we had a pandemic that made it difficult to go to the movies. >> right you know, itcould have different if they stock with mortimer mouse instead of mickey. >> could it be like starbucks where all of a sudden howard schultz comes back i don't know it could happen with disney. >> yeah. >> jim, both of us know how young ieger is. >> he's 71. >> yeah. >> his book was one of the best books. he wrote it, by the way. it starts out with the problems

he had at home it's a great book! i had wrote this he did a great job. >> shareholders at disney were well served by iger and eisner. >> yeah. >> i hate talking about disney we could is been talking about comcast the whole time we'll see you in a couple of minutes. we want to remind you about the cnbc investing club. "squawkbox" will be right back hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this.

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welcome back about half an hour to go until the opening bell on wall street. we've seen futures in the red across the board marginally the s&p down 2 and the nasdaq down 35, and the dow down 65 with the boeing the big decliner we talk with sylvia. she retains her title of chief investment officer of the company. it's good to see you four 1% days in a row last week. pick your geopolitical

all the bad stuff going on now what do you make of the relative resilience of the markets? >> good morning. thank you. i think the overall theme sheer we're going to have strong economic growth in 2022. it'll be slower than expected but the consumer has growing income, strong balance sheets, corporations have strong balance sheets we're expecting growth this year and expansion. i think the pent up demand is going to keep us going forward and, you know, if you look at cash right now and inflation, you're essentially locking in losses you don't get involved in equities i think that investors are have great opportunity here we have a tradeable bottom and decent positive highlights in the background. >> all right >> we were having the debate earlier. you're in the bottom camp? >> i'm in the bottom camp. when i look at companies like apple that had a head and shoulders pattern going from, you know, 150 up to 180 back to 150 and sitting up here at 160, i think investors are trying to

see and looking for opportunities to get in to these companies that have positive growth potential in the future i think there's some gray spots in here and it's time to put must be to work. >> where do you feel twitchiest? is it tech is it, you know, energy? look oil is on the rise this morning. where do you feel the most conviction that you can put money to work? >> my highest level of conviction is in the semiconductor space for a few reasons. i think web 3.0 is growing rapidly. you had $30 million in bc money going there last year. you need machine learning, advanced language processing and in order to have that, you need 5g. in order to have 5g. you need semiconductors like nvidia you look at semiconductors that are part of the artificial intelligence, everything from web 3 to electric vehicles, and you see sort of the growth

stories that 50% sales, 23.4 billion of growth in the nvidia last 12 months, i think at these levels, they're good places to get into participate in 5g and the future of disruptive technology. >> all right thank you. we appreciate it it's great to have you this morning. michael? >> all right. >> i want your deep thoughts. >> oh. >> all the rest of it. >> deep thoughts. >> everything has a similar trip which is a huge bulge september to november and december and now digesting it i think that's what is going on. >> yeah. let's not forget the nasdaq correction started in mid november. >> absolutely. >> i can't figure out how to make sense of the fed here that's what started the correction they started talking about the tamper which is done we're talking about the rate hikes and rallies. >> yeah. i think they're trying to say

we'll do as much as they'll let us do. the market will let us do and plan to be lucky on the equation data, with i think. >> the viewers are in for a treat. you're around again at 1:00 p.m. >>yes. skbauk on the street is coming up >> good monday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber has the day off. busy morning of m & a news and fed chair powell speaking this afternoon. our road map begins with the boeing 737 800 operated by china eastern crashing with 132 passengers we'll get the latest berkshir