>> all right, thank you very much you have a lot of carbs in that basket that's a lot >> and gluten free, just in case prices get high. >> thanks, seema, and thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" begins right now. dow down 362 see you tomorrow stocks are firmly in the red after a midday tumble. the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell," i'm sara eisen here's where we stand in the market at this hour. lower across the board we're off session lows the dow down 400 points earlier this afternoon it's down 1%, the first declie for the dow in six days. the s&p and nasdaq also giving up some of last week's strong gains. technology is underperforming with the nasdaq down more than 1% what's working today energy oil is popping it's the same fear dominating lately, ukraine and of course the fed. here's are my top takeaways on some of the biggest stories

today. deal making is alive and well. berkshire buying allegheny toma bravo buys a business software plan for almost $11 billion and a leverage buyout. kohl's says it's getting multiple offers. all of this is a reminder with all of the doom and gloom in the markets, there's a lot of cash on the sidelines and valuations have azudadjusted >> canadian pacific rail workers the latest to strike as unions have been empowered to demand more amid the surge in job openings and demand. it's also a major transporter of fertilizer and agriculture to and from the u.s. and canada if this drags on, it's more supply chain backups and more shortages on top of the already price spikes we have seen. >> and speaking of worsening commodity inflation, estimates are changing for consumer companies that are exposed to these crazy price spikes for energy, grains, and vegetable oil from the russian war jpmorgan today saying treehouse

foods, uts brands, and b & g foods have the highest earning risk also, conagra and kellogg are facing headwinds, and jpmorgan says hershey and coca-cola are best bgzed because of limited exposure to the commodities that have jumped. the markets and the fed, stocks hitting session lows after jay powell said the central bank is open to hiking by more than 25 basis points at a time if appropriate to combat inflation. joining us for our top panel, paul mccally and liz ann sonders. chief investment strategist at charles schwab do you think chair powell is prepping the market for a 50-basis point hike, a double, which might come as a surprise >> yes, i think he is. essentially, the day he sang the same hymn he did last week, but he said it with more feeling he really was saying today that the fed's mission is to deal

with inflation, and he's going to do whatever it takes, and he's not worried about really buckling the economy short term, so he sent a message, get ready. >> so liz ann, is the market going to be okay with it or not? last week it seemed okay with that message today, not so much >> also last week, the market had already heard and i think had digested the notion that every meeting was likely to be live, and that didn't have a huge negative impact on the market now that we have a sense that not only every meeting is live but the possibility of 50, maybe you could point to that and powell's more hawkish comments as a reason for weakness today we're in a volatile period of time there are going to be days that might have a down move other days, it might not but i think the only reason why a 50 would really surprise markets is if we were in an

environment of growth really, really slowing and the fed having to push into higher recession risk with a 50 versus if growth hangs in there, i think the stomach for the market in terms of digesting 50 would be a little more palatable >> i think that's the other huge question for the market right now, paul, which is can this fed achieve a soft landing powell says it's happened before in the past. what do you think? if they're being this aggressive on inflation, can the recovery stay intact? >> i think there's a sporting chance yess ithat he can get a soft landing he pointed out there have been three in the post world war ii period, not just one which most of us remember so it's doable it's not a done deal, but it's doable i think he's leaning pretty hard on the fact that the labor market right now is stronger than horse radish. it really is, so he thinks he can lean on the interest

sensitive portions of the economy. he can lean on wall street and not have a big risk on the job front. so i think it's doable, not a done deal, but doable. and in the months immediately ahead, he simply wants to ge the hell away from zero. >> i like that stronger -- i like horseradish, especially strong what do you do with tech stocks? they're vulnerable etsy is one of the bottom performers on the s&p. these are the names tat rebounded so sharply last week off depressed levels are they still as risky since we have seen valuations contract and catch up with what the fed is doing >> there's no real they there. i think we have to get out of the habit as investors of looking at a sector like tech through a monolithic lens. there's a whole host of names in there that have a wide variety in terms of fundamentals on the

earnings and profit margin side and in particular on the valuation side and in fact, since the fed last november moved toward normalizing monetary policy, it's higher quality, more value oriented sectors that have been performing best. even within a sector like tech so you can put on kind of a lower case v value cap when looking at stocks and not limit yourself to only the sectors that happen to live in the value indexes. so i think within tech, you want to look for reasonable valuation. you still get hopefully a growth kicker, but that high quality wrapper around it. i wouldn't limit a look for value to only the sectors that live in the value indexes. >> so you're talking about the mega caps essentially, which apple is outperforming today tesla is a little higher amd, nvidia, ahead of an investor day is that what you're suggesting >> no, i'm suggesting quality at the factor level

even the big five or big seven, whatever category of the largest names, you can't look at those monolithicly at all. you have seen huge divergences across even the big five, certainly down into the big ten based on differences in fundamentals so when i say high quality, i'm not talking about some predetermined basket of names based on cap, but the actual fundamentals of strong balance sheet, rising earnings revisions, lower volatility, those are the collective group of factors i would focus on as an investor versus sort of these predetermined groups of stocks >> nasdaq is down a percent. liz ann, thank you paul, good to have you here as well on all the fed speak. >> after the break, we will talk to american airlines ceo doug parker about how much these rising oil and jet fuel costs are overshadowing what is a booming travel recovery for the airlines you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

dow down about 350 sales are down from last quarter, but we're hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uhhh... doug? [children laughing] sorry about that. umm...what...it's uhh... you alright? [loud exhale] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers, plus some of the lowest options in futures contract prices around. [ding] get e*trade and start trading today.

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our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. the airlines have given up earlier gains, now lower for the session along with the broader market as oil shoots higher, the rising jet fuel costs are a major expengs for airlines i spoke to american airlines ceo doug parker. he's been the ceo almost a decade and today accepted yale's legend and leadership award ahead of his retirement next week i asked him what is demand is looking like now for spring break into summer.

>> demand is robust. demand, domestic travel for leisure passengers is as high as it's ever been there's no constraints, as there aren't in the united states, and as there aren't for leisure passengers business is just starting to come back stronger but it's coming back as people return to offices. we know that will rebound. and lastly, international travel still has some real constraints, but those will fall over time. we saw just last week, the uk eliminated all restrictions on travel hopefully other countries will follow suit, including the united states, and there's huge pent-up demand for travel in all sectors. where there aren't constraints like the domestic u.s., that demand is really, really strong. >> there's clearly pent-up demand, so how durable of a recovery do you see here >> it feels really strong. again, it's the consumer seems extremely strong

as i just noted, i mean, demand for leisure travel in the u.s. is high as it's ever been. and business travel is coming back quickly, particularly smaller businesses, those that don't really have the large headquarters and haven't yet -- and haven't been back to business for a while, their demand is quite strong, so it feels resilient. it feels as though as again, as constraints go away, demand is there and it's going to be there for a while. >> oil prices, though, have shot up jet fuel prices. i know you're experiencing it. 13-year highs. how much does that overshadow the financial recovery you're experiencing >> it hurts, of course it's unfortunate as i'm moving on and leaving the airline to robert, my successor, i was hopeful everything was going to be going up, up, up, so things like oil prices, though, are a big factor it's the second largest expense for airlines but again, either it will stay there and we'll respond

accordingly over time with being able to recover it through less capacity and higher prices over time, or it will return to a different level where we are also responding accordly but oil prices have always been an issue for airlines. over time, wherever the level ends up, we figure out a way to be profitable at those levels. we can't respond this quickly so it's going to have an impact in the near term. >> you mentioned the fare and capacity issue it feels like fares have gone up, feels like we're paying more for ticket prices. what should we expect on that front as you adjust to these higher oil prices? >> yeah, there's a combination of high demand there's some restricted supply right now. none of us are flying as many airplanes as we would like a combination of delivery shortfalls and shortage of pilots at the regional airlines has not as much supply, so high demand, low supply, and high cost of production due to oil prices, all those things combine

to where fares will still be good, but they're going to be higher than they were during the pandemic when fares were exceptionally low. they're still good values out there, but definitely, i would be buying my tickets now if i was looking to buy for the summer >> because they're going to go up how much? how much more can we expect? >> i really don't know, sara again, it's all based upon competitive issues and supply and demand, and again, right now, i think we're at competitive levels that are good for consumers and i don't know for sure that they will go up. but what i do know is all those factors supply, demand, cost, production are all leaning toward higher prices >> what about the number one expense, labor that's also been a bit tricky. you were able to keep people on the payroll thanks to the stimulus and bailouts from washington, but what are you experiencing now when it comes to keeping people and hiring

people in this tight labor market >> yeah, at american airlines, we have no trouble whatsoever attracting people. we pay well and it's a great place to work, so we don't have any issue at american airlines per se, again, some of the smaller regional airlines are having trouble recruiting pilots at this time because they don't have enough people with enough hours to fly, but that will correct itself over time we did see at points in time at some of our suppliers and vendors, fuel trucks and catering trucks, et cetera, not having drivers that has all dissipated as well. we're not seeing any sort of issue really anymore as it relates to labor we're going to hire some 20,000 people at american airlines this year, and we're going to have a lot more applicants than people to hire. >> as demands returns, we have also seen deals come back. spirit and frontier are hoping to merge first, do you think that deal will get done in this anti-trust environment? >> yeah, i'm not quite certain

i don't think that's a transaction that the anti-trust department should be concerned about given the size of the two carriers and not a significant amount of overlap, but i haven't done the work to tell you whether or not they're going to need to do something to get it approved doesn't seem to be the size of a transaction anyone should be worried about. >> you have been through so many deals in your career, american west and finally ultimately what resulted in american airlines. do you see more consolidation? how do you see the industry evolving over the next five to ten years? >> i think right now we have an incredibly competitive structure that also allows the consumer the proper amount of utility we have three large carriers that can pretty much take you anywhere american being one of those, and a number of other airlines who fly through different systems like southwest or in smaller -- in smaller parts, smaller footprint like jetblue or

alaska you put it all together and it feels like i think the kind of the right competitive structure for our business it took us a while to get there. i don't suspect you'll see a lot more consolidation from this point, but again, there may be, but nothing big i think is on the horizon. >> doug parker, ceo of american airlines in all his time at the airline, he went through 9/11, really difficult periods, he said covid was the hardest for his airline and for the entire industry. and that $50 billion worth of stimulus he said saved them, the entire airline industry would have shut down without it. let's check in on the markets. the first decline for the dow in six days the s&p gives back a little bit. .4% after its best week last week since 2020. down .4%, as i mentioned most sectors are lower right now. what's holding up? energy, materials, and utilities. what's hit the hardest technology, communication services banks are down, yields are pretty much higher across the board.

coming up, warren buffett's conglomerate is outpacing the market in a big way. e sharantoli will be here with thdabod on berkshire, next as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

warren buffett's berkshire hathaway announcing its largest deal since 2016, buying allegheny for $11.6 billion. mike santoli taking a closer look at berkshire for the dashboard, which has been doing very well lately >> berkshire is on a roll. warren buffett has come in and out of favor, and right now, investors love every piece of what now makes up berkshire hathaway allegheny is interesting because it's kind of a baby berkshire and also a conglomerate with other businesses here's a way to pull apart berkshire. apple, berkshire owns 5.5% of apple. that's outperformed the rest of tech you have united pacific, that's railroads, burlington, santa fe at the core of berkshire as

well all doing well chubb property and casualty insurance business, that's the geico general business within berkshire. it's all working together. value, quality - >> commodity >> energy infrastructure in there as well, and pricing power with the rail. not to say it's going to last forever, but it has gotten berkshire back up to a premium >> and the signal from the deal today. i mean, they have, what, more than $100 billion pile of cash still, and they have complained that there hasn't been anywhere to put it. >> maybe there are nor opportunities. first, this company very much in tune with what berkshire does. they would have been a buy almost no matter when they were willing to sell, but $750 billion in market share, there's a lot more they could do also, the occidental stake was a couple weeks ago >> i read on twitter treasuries aren't working right now berkshire is like a safe haven berkshire isn't the only company making news in the deal world today. thank you, mike, by the way.

private equity firm tomabravo is buying anaplan for nearly $11 billion. we'll discuss the deal with the man behind it when "closing bell" returns. (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds

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bravo striking a deal to buy anaplan for $7 billion joining us is the manager partner who led the deal thanks for joining us. just a few days ago, we found out this company was the subject of activist pressure keith meister is going to be on with scott next hour, but between that and of course the public valuation coming down for all of these software names, talk about how this deal got done and whether management was more open to it because of some of those issues. >> well, thank you, sara, first of all i'm delighted to be on here to today to discuss anaplan which is in our mind one of the most unique enterprise software companies we cover so we have approached this company and this market well before any activists disclosure because this company really from our standpoint checks all the boxes. it's got very high revenue quality, very great customer base it's in a large and dynamic market it's growing really fast

as you said, one of the nice things or one of the things that is a trend in the markets over the last five or six months, particularly for really high quality public software companies that have nice revenue growth but very little profit, we have seen those companies have their valuations decrease pretty significantly, and for us, that's a big opportunity because at thoma bravo, we have a very unique operating approach where we work in collaboration with management to turn cash flow or sorry, to turn revenue multiples into cash flow multiples over our horizon when all those things came together, we approached the company. it was well before any activist disclosure >> it sounds like you may have more up your sleeve, given where valuations are in tech right now, in software in particular >> we think this is a great time i mean, these are some of the best companies, like i said, they cover the high growth, they have high revenue quality. and you're right we are very busy at the moment >> what about the general market and buyer.

it's a ripe time for lbos. we're seeing a potential nielsen deal, what about the junk bond market and how generous financing conditions are now, because they have certainly tightened as the fed has started raising rates. >> they have what we're doing a lot of in our world is buying these really high growth market leading companies at scale and we are, i think, probably the market leader in doing that. and those companies that are very high growth, we have a really nice set of private capital sources that we can leverage as well who recognize that the company's recurring revenue that we're borrowing against is a really attractive asset. in this deal as an example, that's what we did it's primarily equity, but we're making our returns on growth and on the top line and growth in profitability, not necessarily on financial engineering so we think that will continue as well. >> what is the goal here are you trying to go up against, with this company and some of the others that you're building

in your portfolio an s.a.p., that's the competitor we hear about the most when it comes to anaplan, salesforce, oracle, they all compete and they're all bigger >> you're right. it's situation specific. we have been doing this for about 20 years buying these companies, competing against large guys there's always been a place for best of breed software that's still true today. the fundamentals are amazing, and in many cases and true in this case as well, we're buying the market leader. some of the names you mentioned are in the market, but anaplan is gaining market share. it's cloud native. a lot of companies you mentioned started with an on-premise solution so anaplan is taking market share. >> what about the notion in the public market that a lot of these companies had a lot of demand pull forward during the covid pandemic, you saw that with the stock price anaplan got as high as in the $80s, and it's going to be tough comparisons and a lot of giveback in the coming years,

especially as we get back to normal and see a change in consumer environment >> yeah. they saw some of that in a way that pullback and then there was kind of a reversion. that's really what created this opportunity, to be honest. so we think we're on the other side of that the growth in the last quarter and new bookings year over year was 60%, which for a company over $600 million in revenue, is very unusual so we think that's created a great opportunity for us >> holden, thank you for joining us to talk about the deal today. we appreciate it >> thank you for your time i appreciate it as well. talk to you soon >> is this crypto's coming of age moment on wall street? it's the buzz today, and we have the details next >> dow is coming off the lows, down 273 we'll be right back. of helicop] ugh... they found me. ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this. people have their money just sitting around

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what is wall street buzzing about today? a crypto first goldman sachs just became the first major u.s. bank to make an over the counter bitcoin options trade, that basically means a direct customized trade, either for the bank on behalf of clients. it was executed by galaxy digital and does mark a major milestone in the development of crypto markets for institutional investors. a cnbc.com report, it's different than the exchange products because goldman takes on a bigger risk here, acting as a principle in the transaction it shows ps perhaps a growing ts on the part of goldman sachs in the asset after wall street has shunned crypto for years, finally, or perhaps they're just trying to meet growing customer demand for bitcoin derivatives either way, it speaks to a new maturity and potential systemic

reach for crypto coming up, oil's jumping more than 7% right now. we'll tell you why straight ahead. that and more when we take you inside the market nezo i promise - as an independent advisor - to put the financial well-being of you and your family first. i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

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erasing morning gains after jay powell suggested a more aggressive interest rate hike path might be necessary to curb inflation. mike, this is the dow's first down day in six days we're coming off a big win streak treasuries are worth paying attention to today, because we're seeing new 2019 highs, highest since 2019 for both the two-year and the ten-year yield. what does it all tell you about whether last week's moves is sustainable? we're seeing a pullback, but it's not sharp and ugly like we have seen in recent weeks. >> it got the bond market's attention, repricing how soon and how high the rates might go. the may meeting is looking like it might be a half-point increase based on the odds what's interesting isthe damag is being felt in things like consumer cyclicals you look at home builders or you look at even the auto stocks today. that's the area that are getting punished but in general, the market to me after going up 250-plus points on the s&p last week is

basically giving up just, you know, 16 of those. so it seems to me relatively rezeliant. i think this is going to be the mode, whatever the market gives, the fed might take, as permission to get a little more aggressive >> no doubt boeing is one of the biggest drags on the dow today taking about 50 points off the dow after a china eastern airlines boeing 737 crashed in the mountains in southern china after a sudden sharp descent 132 people were on the plane the cause of the crash still under investigation. let's bring in phil lebeau with the move for boeing and just what we know so far. >> well, sara, i think the most interesting thing that people are focused on right now is what would cause a plane flying at 30,000 feet to just drop out of the sky? because when you look at the descent, this was in less than two minutes when it went from 29,100 feet down to the ground and so it brings up the question, there was not a catastrophic event reported in the air. was it cockpit confusion, was it

deliberate on the part of the pilots so many questions need to be cons considered and we won't have details until they recover the data recorder. >> boeing is one of the losers oil making another big move higher today it's up more than 7% this comes as european nations are once again considering an impart ban on russian oil and following an attack this weekend on saudi oil facilities. damian, i guess if you thought the energy volatility was coming down and we had seen the high in prices because they did decline sharply last week, that's absolutely wrong now what do we expect? >> yeah, so we think from here, the move is still higher we have a significant supply shock on a market that was already historically tight and the only buffer you have today really is demand reduction. we don't have any inventory buffer opec has very limited ability to ramp up and no desire to do so so really it has to come out of

demand that takes another meaningful leg higher our forecast is $135 for the second half of this year now, a lot of uncertainty, you point out, to the price volatility you should expect that, but we're losing a lot of barrels right now. >> what about the prospect of america joining the russia embargo. in the market, what would that mean in terms of how fewer barrels of oil come out of russia >> it would be a significant shock for europe and russia. that's why europe has been reluctant so far and particularly countries like germany who are very dependent on russian oil so you have seen the countries that have implemented it least exposed, the uk and u.s. based on the recent statement, we would still think europe waits to implement that because it is a significant shortfall for you, but it clearly tells you which way the sanctions are going. the escalating sanctions are the deterrent for other buyers

that's why russian exports are falling right now. under sanctions, you cannot export energy. because buyers are reluctant to do so, this is having a material impact already >> what about saudi? we mentioned the attack on the aramco facility. there was also an article discussing the relationship between biden and the saudis and how we have lost them a bit. what's the status of that relationship and whether they can step in, saudi arabia can step in here and help the u.s. and europe, the west, meet the demand being lost from russia? >> yeah, a few points there. first of all, epeck decisions have to be unanimous within the group, you have russia, you have iran, venezuela, who all see some leverage from higher oil prices. that makes a decision difficult. until the last few days, second, it wasn't obvious that russian exports were falling we were still loading barrels contracted before sanctions. i think finally now we're starting to see some evidence of

that you know, third, in this current geopolitical environment, it may take more to see the group respond. and think as well from the middle east perspective, they're sending a lot of barrels to china. russia wants to send barrels there. that's also complicating their calculus in the end, there is a little bit of capacity left probably takes higher prices to bring it on, but it doesn't really solve anything. we're looking at the second lowest spare capacity, and if that comes online, there is absolutely nothing left. we have zero inventory buffer. we'll have zero spare capacity in a world where high food and fuel prices typically drive social unrest and disruption so those barrels coming online maybe help prevent rationing, but they don't really help solve the critical tightness of the oil market, which takes me back to the core of our bullish view which is there is only one solvent, which is reducing

demand through higher prices >> damian says $135 price for oil. can the u.s. economy handle that the oil names are all working today, but as you mentioned, the consumer names are getting hit >> $135, if that'sthe high, obviously if the forward curve is still not showing that's going to be the price for the foreseeable future, yeah, it can handle it. it would be a restraint on growth to some degree, like to remind everybody, we were up at $100 in the early part of the 2010s for a while in a much slower growing economy that was slightly more energy intensive it can handle it if it's the only thing it is contending with also in a couple months, we're going to be lapping $75 oil from a year earlier if we stabilize in this range, it's going to have a diminishing year over year effect, but still not going to be a help to the economic view. >> damian, thank you for joining us did you have one final point >> mike makes a good point, which is the consumer is much

better off than he was in even summer 2008. to get significant demand destruction, more than the 1 million barrels a day we expect, you would need a significant leg higher in prices i think that's the core of the price risk $135 is our base case, but those losses of exports from russia are 2 million barrels a day, then the price upside is significantly higher that's the key risk as well to the forecast >> damian, appreciate you joining us from goldman sachs. thank you. stocks remaining under pressure here following comments from jay powell earlier this afternoon. now the next big catalyst could be earnings season joining us, lindsey bell also a cnbc contributor. lindsey, keep reading commentary that earnings expectations have not come down enough to reflect the current environment, which is slower economic growth and dealing with these commodity price spikes like oil, like wheat. what do you think has happened to earnings expectations are they matched or mismatched

>> yeah, i mean, they have been quite, quite resilient despite all the uncertainties that the market faces, that corporations face right now we're looking for 2022 earnings growth of 7.5% that's right in line with the long term average of about 8% per quarter. so it's not really a dire situation, and it comes on the back of what was one of the most strong years from an earnings growth perspective out of very many in 2021 so the comps are a little more difficult. we're still going to get solid growth what we have been seeing shifting in numbers is really within different sectors so of course, you're seeing sectors like energy and materials, those numbers are moving higher along with commodity prices but then you see consumer discretionary and communications services moving lower along with consumer sentiment so i think there's some moving parts here time will tell it's going to be a really interesting earnings season

because corporate america really has been able to weather a lot of the uncertainty that started in the fourth quarter of last year, including inflation and uncertainty about the fed and the direction and the path forward there. they weathered that really well in the fourth quarter as the market started turning down, and i expect they're going to be able to do the same this quarter. >> which sector has the most downside risk? you said energy obviously the biggest upside which biggest downside risk given everything that's happening now? >> yeah, the biggest downside risk i think is most people would probably initially gravitate to the consumer discretionary sector, but it's one of three sectors expected to show decline, a decline of 10% in the first quarter and i actually think that might be a sector where there's opportunity. what we have actually seen is the majority of that -- of that pullback in growth is coming from the consumer services sector so the consumer, i think in general, remains very healthy, just like mike and your last guest talked about

they have excess savings to the tune of $2 trillion they have much lower debt levels than they did coming into the pandemic they have right sized their balance sheets and they have shown the ability to absorb higher prices thus far the job market remains very, very attractive to them, anyone that's looking for a job so i think the consumer remains very strong. we have seen consumer services, while some of those companies have done really well, like restaurants and hotels, those numbers remain very depressed from an earnings perspective i think that's where you might be able to see some upside surprise i also would look at the tech sector too numbers have been pretty steady there so far, just like last quarter, the expectations coming in are very low. i think this is a sector that a lot of people aren't expecting too much from, even despite the move back in stock prices here so i think that might be an area where you see better growth because growth there has been really good over the last

several quarters but it hasn't really outperformed the s&p 500 in the last couple quarters and i think that there's a big opportunity coming down the road >> tech and consumer discretionary. mike, remind us where we are on overall market valuations given where earnings are expected to come in? >> we bounced at the lows of last week, a little over 18 times forward earnings and those earnings have been basically steady for this year so we're up probably in the 19-ish range again it's down from over 21 to start the year nobody's version of cheap, but it really does depend, i think, on whether we have a bad guidance cycle after first quarter earnings if that shows you some vulnerability. it's worth keeping in mind, earnings and sales for companies are measured in nominal dollars. we're all worried about inflation here inflation shows the spending power of the economy, the nominal amount output is growing, so that's not to mean it saves multiples it doesn't mean earnings can

hold up perfectly, but that's a little bit of a tailwind in terms of companies making numbers. >> lindsey, thank you for the update appreciate it. >> of course >> one good test of consumer will be nike because it reports today after the close. analysts are expecting 71 cents for earnings $10.59 billion in revenue for the quarter. nike stock taking a dip it's down 20% on the year and well off its highs from last fall if you think about everything that's been worrying the market lately, a lot of global growth concerns, war in russia and ukraine, the spillover effect on europe, what's happening with china and the shutdowns there, and that market coming off already a little bit of weaker demand because of some of the nationalism around chinese brands that's all being reflected in the nike share price, as well as supply concerns. i just wonder how much of the bad news is priced in here to nike, because all the analysts still love this name and their strategy >> well, i think the other thing that's part of the context is

that it really did -- the stock got up to a hefty premium to the overall market, to its own history. there was this real love for the global brands who could well navigate the supply chain issues and still now, 35 times earnings, it's like 40 times free cash flow on a forward basis. it's still on the richer side, even if it's down discounted in price. so that to me has been one of the undertows for performance even if the absolute numbers they're going to deliver aren't falling off that much at all >> nasdaq is pulling back. it's the big underperformer. tech near the bottom of the pack let's bring in paul hickey i was going to ask you just how strong the final hour of trading has been, but we break the streak today first down day for the dow in six. it has been a better tone. we are off the lows, so what have you noticed >> i mean, we're up in the last hour right now here. we're up -- i'll get to it in a

second, but the rally last week as you were discussing, has been almost a dash for trash, and you have it there in the headline. what we have seen is the lowest quality stocks have seeb the biggest rallies off the lows and you know, there's not that much you can read into it, as you have discussed a lot, that can be a dead cat rally or the beginning of a meaningful bounce but what we have seen is in the last hour strength, four days last week in a row, we were up 33 basis points or more in the last hour of trading and based on where we are right now, it will come down to the close, but today could be the fifth straight day where you have seen 33 basis points or more in the last hour of trading that may not sound like a lot, but the four days is already the longest streak since november 2008 and five days would be the longest streak since july 2002 so you don't see this kind of last-hour strength all that often. and on a consistent basis. and november 2008 we have to remember is it wasn't a low for

the market as far as the indices were concerned, but it was an internal low for the market, meaning the indices made lower lows in march, but the average stocks made their lows in november 2008. you saw a similar situation in 2002, in july 2002, the majority of stocks made their lows in july 2002, but inindices bottomed in october of 2002. >> i was going to ask you how you read it, what you take away from it, and especially that pattern you noticed about what you're calling for dash for trash, so the companies that had the highest pe multiples, that don't necessarily have earnings. and the not quality stuff. does that mean they're looking for a bottom >> so again, it's a characteristic you see at every rally off the low, whether it's sustainable or not take a stock like square it's had a rally of 30% off the low this year, 60%, and 50% off the low. at three different times this

year still down 50% year to date, so these types of rallies, you tend to see them, they don't have a whole lot of meaning by themselves but when you couple them with other factors like this environment, who wants to hold stocks overnight when you see the types of headlines, you have headline risk in russia, ukraine, but people are still buying stocks going into the close over the last week here. so i think that's something to be cognizant of, and right now, we're up almost 50 basis points in the last hour of trading right now, as we head into the close, so i think that's a positive signal here everyone freaked out about what powell said earlier today. but if you really look at what he was saying, it's not much different than what he was saying last week we were a little confused why the market was so positive last week on these headlines. we're equally confused today why the market was so negative on these headlines when there really wasn't that much difference on either day

what's changed >> well, one thing that's happening is yields are sort of shooting higher. the ten-year is up past 2.30 right now, and fresh highs going back to 2019 how do you think stocks have been able to absorb these higher yields >> so with all of these things, like oil, so the first time oil went above $100 in early march, the market freaked out and we sold off this time we go back above $100 and the market was able to stick with it. we're seeing a similar thing in treasury yields. the first time is a shock, and investors get worried and then they get used to it and the market is able to live with it so i don't think it's -- we're still 2.20% on the ten-year, it's not that historically extreme by any stretch of the imagination. >> paul hickey, always good to get the perspective from bespoke. thank you very much. you just heard the two-minute warning. what do you see on internals >> they're weak given the fact

the indexes have been down all day, but on a mixed level. about 40% of all the volume of the new york stock exchange to the upside, so 40/60, not really a washout there. take a look at new lows and highs on the new york stock exchange this is rare, it has not been the case in a while that you have seen double the number of new highs versus new lows. it shows you the correction has been going on for a while, probably, but that's definitely in the positive column the volatility index has been soft it's now down below 24 it's holding that big rise and fall, the spike on the chart, which generally means we're on firmer footing and once it gets well below 30, it shows you the market has come to some kind of terms with the macro for now >> definitely feels calmer today than the sell-offs in previous weeks. as we head into the close, what's working anything commodity related, especially energy, steel, stocks are doing well as well we are off the session lows.

s&p right now is actually trying to go positive we're really having a nice rally into the close looks like we might end positive the dow down 200 the nasdaq underperforming but only down .4%. it was down about 1% earlier in the session. consumer discretionary the worst performer on the market. that does it for me on "closing bell." have a good evening. i'll send it into "overtime" with scott wapner. sara, thanks welcome to "overtime." i'm scott wapner we're just getting started in just a few minutes, we'll be joined by star investor keith meister to get his thoughts on where we are in the market nike earnings breaking any minute now we'll have the latest and of course the instant stock move in "overtime. we gbegin with our talk of the tape the big leap in interest rates, whether it stands to kill the rally in stocks just as it was getting started. let's welcome in jason snipe, cameron dawson