nvidia, which is just ahead of its shareholder meeting or analyst day, or one or the other. it's good to see you, shaina, thanks we'll have you back in overtime some time soon i want to remind you as well, tomorrow, don't miss our interview with legendary investor carl icahn. he is going to be here to talk about the markets. i haven't heard from him in a while. that does it for us today in overtime we'll see you tomorrow "fast money" begins now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. tim seymour, guy adami, brian kelly. nike does it shares jumping we're dialed into the call we'll bring you all the details. plus, the c suite at disney not exactly the happiest place on earth. there is a rift in the relationship between bob iger and the man who replaced him and the moves by the new boss have been getting a cold shoulder on wall street. inside disney's rocky ride, straight ahead

another a big head day for the metals and mining. up for the fifth straight day, it is hitting its highest level in over a decade tim and bk ready to rock out on that heavy metal trade we start off with jerome powell widely underestimated the rise in prices and suggests even more aggressive rate hikes than he laid out last week his comments sent markets on a roller coaster ride. the s&p sank nearly a half percent immediately. and despite a late day comeback with the first loss in five sessions will this more hawkish tone put an end to last week's rally? it was how many -- it wasn't even a week ago. >> four. >> it was four days ago, including a weekend? >> yes >> including a weekend so what happened what happened, tim >> well, i think what we heard from bullard last week, and he said why is it we have to hear this now when in september there was no sign of inflation and they're telling us 50 now?

these were the first real comments after the powell press conference you get the sense the fed is not just concerned about inflation, but really understands there are structural issues in this inflation. if you look at the curve, it was the short end outperformed and took over from where we zigzagged a bit on wednesday of the fed meeting. you're up 19 points. 19 basis points on the short end of the curve market did a lot of pricing in today. there are people that kind of believe 50 is the status quo, but the long end, treasury rates are breaking out it's not great for equities. i will say, i thought stocks were champs today on a day when after, you know, an 11% rally in the nasdaq off of last monday's low, powell dropping this bomb on you, great job by equities. >> it sounded like he was opening the door to a couple of 50 basis points. there is nothing to prevent the fed, i'm paraphrasing, but nothing to prevent the fed from multiple 50 point basis hikes. >> tim is spot on. we play a lot of games on this

show, as you know. >> oh, so many >> one of the games is if you had told me 24 hours ago, mel, what would happen. >> one of our favorites. >> one of my personal favorites. >> mine too. >> lying like a rug. given the rally last week tim alluded to, if you were to tell me the comments out, 12:45 b.k. was watching him easily the s&p down 80 handles given what we saw last week in the rally. at one point the s&p was down 25, 30 handles and it's a remarkable day we could say that the bond market is pricing us all but i'm here to tell you, there is no way the equity is pricing. >> and volatility was down in a world where i've always said more fed equals more volatility, i don't feel very rewarded by that statement right now. >> what do we need to do, and i use we, like the royal we, or we as in the markets, we brian kelly, if we are to believe that 50 basis points, even maybe more than 50 basis points can happen the next couple of meetings, what do we need to price in at

this point what is not priced in? >> well, there is a couple of things not priced in number one is earnings downgrades, right? we haven't seen any earnings downgrades from anybody out there. that would be a shock to the market and then number two, this is going to sound a little strange, but if you go further out on the curve to two or three years, you're actually starting to see the market price in rate cuts. i think that's what buoying stocks analysts are saying hey, listen, the fed is going to raise rates by 50 basis points, 100 basis points it's going to be short and sharp. you're going to crush inflation. yeah, we might have a quarter or two of growth scare. but after that, it's clear sailing. so what we need to price in is actually the fed raising rates for a longer period of time. before the equity market says hey, this is a problem to me right i know, though, the bond market, short the bond markets, the easiest trade long dollar short bonds. you guys can all trade your

equities i'd rather trade those >> dan, what's your take >> yeah, i just tell you this. in my career, when we've had surprise moves by the fed, either cutting because they're worried about some sort of shock to the system or in the instance of maybe a surprise rate hike, the market, the stock market usually does the opposite of what they intend it to do. so i don't think stock market investors are really braced particularly well for any sort of big surprises i think that you made the point, mel, that last week we heard from powell, and then today we hear from powell, and they don't seem to like the kind of ratcheting up of the hawkish sort of sentiment. and to tim's point, fine stocks acted pretty well today in the face of that. but if there are any surprise hikes here, i think the knee-jerk reaction is lower. and then bk mentioned the one thing that the equity market participants don't seem to be kind of focused on right here is that current consensus for s&p 500 earnings this year are expected to be up 8 1/2, 9%

year-over-year that's just not happening. that's taking us back to the ppi reading you're seeing in germany right now. i know we're going to talk about nike in a few minutes. i don't care what they printed on this backward looking quarter. i want to hear about the visibility they have going forward here i don't think it's going to be particularly great i don't mean to seem dire about this it seems like a lot of analysts right now are whistling past the graveyard right here this is not going to set up to be the 2022 earnings per share for the s&p 500 that most strategists had just three months ago >> not sure that a lot of strategists, a lot of analysts have priced in a major slowdown in europe, a major price spike in europe. it is not too often on "fast money" when we talk about german ppi. but 29.5% is an eye catcher and a leading indicator for consumer price spikes to come and this, by the way, has not factored in the inflationary

impact from the russian-ukraine conflict and that is the problem. so what are we -- we haven't priced in a whole lot. >> 45% of german gas is coming from the east. look, if you look at germany, if you look at european stocks, look at the euro stock, 50 it actually traded back to almost five-year levels at the lows of last week. i think european stocks have reacted to the downside. they priced in a lot look at the ten-year bund yield, and i'm sure people are not doing this every day when they wake up. higher rates across europe are good in the short-term for their banks. remember, we were worried about europe about a decade ago. that's something i would caution. i'd quickly say. dan talked about the bond market a two-year at 210, 215, 220. maybe at some point the market believes the feds are going to overshoot and they price in. b.k. was saying this too buy me some two-year at 220. i think you're going to be well rewarded >> we do talk about points once in a while

germany still the fifth largest economy on the planet. when you add together the you're ozone, that's 450 million people, we're about 330. it's significant is my point, and they're clearly slowing down it will have ramifications here. and talk about the yield curve five tens have inverted or are now flat that's not bullish for equities. again, you to ask yourself, to dan's point about earnings, what's the right multiple in a slowing growth, in my opinion, rising interest rate environment? and i don't think we're anywhere close to where we should be. >> then you go back to big cap technology do you think we're in the setup that supports the notion that you want to be in growth that is idiosyncratic? during that time of economic slowdown, here you want to be in solid companies that have the growth and have the balance sheets >> i mean, i'm not sure that this is that exact same environment. we're looking at -- there are a lot of risks out there that have

not been priced in and the nasdaq has shown you that the higher rates go, the more they trade as a monolith. so that idiosyncratic growth, it might be good for a trade here or there i'm not sure you can stake your entire portfolio on that as guy just said, everybody is just talking the about europe slowing down we already know that china slowed they're starting to stimulate a bit. maybe something happens there. powell said today, they're going to raise rates, and they're going to raise rates above the neutral rate, meaning they are going to slow the economy down so the u.s. economy is going to slow so i don't care if you have a great balance sheet, a fortress balance sheet, whatever people say. if the u.s. economy slows, your earnings are going to go lower, and therefore your stock price goes lower that's at least that's what i was taught. >> if you can't stake your portfolio on the big tech companies, that's too bad for most americans out there, unfortunately, dan, because that's what people have. >> yeah, and i guess we've had

this conversation, you know. when you think about those top five or sixnames and they make up close to 25% of the s&p 500 and half of the nasdaq, the nasdaq 100, if you own funds, if you own these etfs, you're there. they act pretty well i'm looking at the dow jones industrial average down 5% on the year, and the s&p 500 down only 6.5% of the year. so it's become a very concentrated trade guy talks about all the time how many different funds and etfs, all of those big names are in. we're all in this together we talked about single names often. the show is called "fast money" and there has been plenty of volatility if you're nimble and you want to trade, there is lots of money to be made and to be lost here. what's proving to be true is that the safest place to be is obviously in the spy, in the qqq. >> so i hear you on we are the world, we are the children, dan. ive was doing some screening today of where stocks have moved

after this big move. and even with last week's snap back and google jumps off the page. based upon '22 eps is trading at 0.5 peg ratio. what is a peg ratio? it's price to earnings growth. it's clearly a measure of what you're paying for a company and how much growth is there and google to me which is one of the largest companies in the world is absurdly cheap at these levels now if i'm making my list and checking it twice, it's absolutely looking for companies like this, even in down day, guy is smirking over here, i can't wait for this. this is a place where you can putting that list ogether. and if you don't own google, it's very cheap now. it may get cheaper, but nobody rings a bell. >> do you think if tim was in that we are the world video, he wore his vest for it >> maybe just a vest, guys >> just a vest >> it's a family show, gentlemen. >> is that all you have to say or do you have a trade >> i was just visualizing tim in that video. >> let's not keep talking about

it we have an earnings alert we want to move on to nike shares swooshing higher after the latest report. the company's conference call is under way. sarah eisen is listening in. hi, sarah. >> hi, melissa nike again showing its resilience here in the face of everything going on in the world. slower global growth, of course weakness around europe potentially and the war in ukraine, supply chain issues the ceo just kicking off the conference call. he starts as he always starts, naming some of the highlights from the quarter, from the sports world, including the winter olympics, the fact that a lot of nike teams are alive in the men and women's march madness bracket. that's the sort of stuff that keeps investors excited. two things i wanted to flag, digital growth, 19% there. that was better than expected. also, latching some tough comparisons from the middle of the pandemic last year that was a highlight. also also saw some weaknessed on the adidas quarter this has been nike's really strong force, and its higher

profit business where it sells directly through its sneaker app, digital or stores also growing 15%. if you go beneath the surface, some of the worries came in line china sales of $2 billion, that was what the market was expecting. it is a decline of 5%, but it was out there. north american sales, the key market up 9% also coming in line with what was expected coming into this quarter, the stock was down 22% for the year so far there was a lot of hand-wringing over issues which has hurt nike sales in the past. and the company ceo does note that the supply chain issues are ongoing and says marketplace demand continues to significantly exceed available inventory supply on that ♪, inventories were a little bloated. they're up 15% from last year. but the company did say consumer demand is helping to offset that so melissa, the key will be from here, what does this company say about the outlook? the outlook and the guidance always comes on the earnings

calls. so i should expect that from the cfo. in a few minutes, i'll let you know what they say that's going to be key, especially around china given potential deterioration in the outlook because of the rolling shutdowns around covid and supply chain and what they're going to say overall given that we're in a different picture here with global growth than we were just three months ago so far it's all been coming in inline or better than expected that's why we see the stock reacting with a sigh of relief. >> sarah, keep us posted thank you, sarah eisen on nike the quarter ended february 28th. so that includes some of the impact we saw in terms of commodities, supply chain issues, et cetera. but the nuance and the contours i think of demand through the quarter will be key, tim >> they will i don't think nike can have outlook at the end of the year right now. i think you have to be careful here there is no question, we want to hear these are the types of headlines. various times nike has been a leader dan is right we know maybe the fed is pressing in. we don't know what multiple the market is going to put on stocks

that are in a different economy as we get into the third quarter. and we hope nike can do that but if you think about dt sales, up 17% off a really tough comp and think about where we were a year ago when that's all people could do in many cases it is a way to deal with lean inventories. you walk into a lot of stores. you don't have the nike products go straight to nike. certainly helps long margins at 36 to 37 times in this environment next year, be careful. >> last summer the stock sold off, traded from the mid 150s down to 148, 150 and bounced to an all-time high the 50% replacement comes in around 150 and i will tell you, mel, because i remember that large animal, that large land animal with the tusk. >> rhino. >> i have a memory like one that carter was on last week and said exactly this would happen. >> that's true >> and we pointed out the opportunity to get back that 148 level. i think it actually gets there i think you fade it when it

does >> 36, 35 forward. brian kelly, what does that price in your view tim said be careful. >> well, listen, it prices in a consumer that is going to continue to spend and a federal reserve and an economy that is going -- that you're going to be okay with. i happen to think that's not right. i happen to think that powell just told you they do not want the consumer to spend more that's what demand destruction is all about but it's probably what's been priced into the stock down from $180 so i'm kind of with guy on this, up to 150, you probably fade that you get a bare market rally here and when people realize that the consumer is not going to hold up, that's when you want to sell this thing again. >> but the consumer is pretty -- they're holding up right now they've got good balance sheets. they've got jobs, dan. maybe this is the exact kind of stock you want to be in this environment. >> mel, what show are you participating in here? i don't know if you saw where gas at the pump, where morgue

rates are going, where the fed is raising rates and how quickly they're doing it tim, you just eye rolled me. have i return, buddy i can see that. >> it was a smirk. >> i just want you to be very clear on that. i'll just say to me, when you're looking at estimates for earnings and sales to be up double-digits here, sales expected to be up fiscal 202313, 14% and on a p/e to growth, tim might say at 27 times next year, that might be reasonable but you have to believe that number for next year the good news here is all that discussion about dtc, they're expected to have the highest gross margin in fiscal 2023 than they've had in a decade, about 47.5% or so. and that really does speak to some of the changes that have been under foot, see what i did there? for this company over the last few years. i just don't know if those out-year estimates are reliable right now. >> all right coming up. a disney dispute

relation strains between ceo bob iger and former -- excuse me, between ceo and former head bob iger what does that mean or to the company? we'll break it down next boeing focus after a fatal 737 crash in china investigators still working to discover the cause we've got more on that next. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. with my hectic life, you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions, and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. voya helps me feel like i got it all under control. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. ever wonder what everyone's doing on their phones? they're banking, with bank of america.

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for the manicure that makes everything right, for right now. show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com welcome back to "fast money. boeing shares dropping more than 3.5% today after a boeing 737-800 plane crashed in southern china it was operated by china eastern airlines and had 132 pool on board. the stock has lost more than half its value over the last three years. 3.5%, tim, do you still own this one? >> i do. look, this is a horrible tragedy, and unfortunately, there has been too much of this around boeing. the big issue for boeing out of this is one for the drivers for the stock was essentially recommissioning and redelivering max 737s to china. and that's where part of analysts were getting ready to upgrade this stock if you look at the overall airlines sector as well today, the spike in oil is really what

i think is pushing down not only boeing and airlines, and i think they were very highly correlated today, but this is something to watch. how the chinese government responds to this is very important for the direction of boeing stock. >> it seems like the response is pretty swift china eastern grounded all of its boeing 737-800s immediately, and president xi stepped in and said he wants to know the cause of this. he was calling for an investigation that was going to be very speedy phil lebeau when the news head made the point that in the past, boeing shares usually drop on the back of such news and recover. do you think that playbook is still in play now? >> i don't because i think there is too many crosscurrents here so number one, you saw how swiftly -- you mentioned how swiftly they moved and the fact that they're going to ground all of those things. that would have never happened in the past. so that's something relatively new. but secondarily, we talk about the slowing economy, slowing global economy that's really what the driver of

boeing are you going to sell more planes and i don't think there is going to be that demand. so thing is a little different situation here you want to trade boeing between where is it, 170 and 200 as dan would say, have at it i don't think you're going to have a nice trend in boeing. >> what's interesting about boeing, and i think tim would agree with this, at this price, i don't see you're totally dismissing their company, but to a larger extent you. this is a company that would probably still do $100 billion in revenues for a year, you can start doing back of the envelope math and say at a certain point, it's too cheap the headline risk is significant. but you're going get to the point where you almost have to buy it just for the defense portion itself in my opinion. >> but if you wanted the defense play, you would just have a defense stock. why would you bother >> yes, except for the fact that it's being punished as it only has a business selling commercial airlines and aircraft into the airlines and defense is

fortyish part of their business. i hear that we've also had an enormous run and i don't think boeing got that same benefit >> we are just getting started here on "fast money. here is what is coming up next. >> a mouse house divided past and president heads of disney falling out should investors fear this disney dissension? the details are next plus, get ready for some heavy metal. the group hitting its highest level in over a decade so time to crank this trade to 11 the traders break it down ahead. you're watching "fast money. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back rig aerhihtft ts. r i. let's open your binders to page 188... uh carl, are there different planning options in here? options? plans we can build on our own, or with help from a financial consultant? like schwab does. uhhh... could we adjust our plan... ...yeah, like if we buy a new house? mmmm... and our son just started working.

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welcome back to "fast money. there is a battle going on at disney a new cnbc exclusive from our alex sherman of cnbc.com detailing the riff between current ceo bob chapek and his predecessor bob iger the tension between the execs are a growing concern about the course the current regime is charting disney has had a rough go it today it dropped to over a percent. let's bring in cnbc contributor jim stewart. always good to get your take on these things >> good to be with you >> is it your sense that there is a rift going on before the men seemed to be close it was reported that they would talk almost every single day, and that just has not happened lately >> no. as cnbc really has been out in front on that story. but i think this is really the tip of an iceberg, if you want to call it that. the rift is just part of a much broader problem. i think that the new management

led by ceo bob chapek is confronting at disney there have been growing morale problems ever more open criticism of some of the management decisions that have been made these constant reshufflings of executive lines of authority, and finally culminating in this fiasco over the don't say gay law in florida, which has now managed to alienate pretty much everybody. it is i think a growing cause for concern among many investors about after years of a very smooth well oiled managed machine there, a company that in some ways looks like it might be going off the rails. >> would it be too big of a jump to say that perhaps bob chapek's days are numbered? >> i wouldn't want to go there yet. after all, this board put him in place not that long ago. to now decide they need to

replace him would be essentially admitting that they made a monumental mistake i don't know the day is there yet to take such precipitous step but something has got to change there. i mean, i have been hearing now for months from many of my sources in disney about the mounting dismay and the dissatisfaction there. the sort of the tone deaf quality coming out of the executive suite. the decisions that, you know, have really caused really morale issues take the decision to move the ima imageers from california to florida to save money. on the imagineers, that is hard. that was walt disney's personal baby and they're highly creative, highly respected within the company. and they're all extremely upset about this

and while the money sounds good, when you realize it's $500 million over 20 years, that's $25 million a year in savings. really for a company like disney, that's barely a rounding error. and it has created this massive dissatisfaction there. >> jim, it's tim seymour hear you on that, and certainly that kind of dysfunction at the top could hinder the creative process. quickly, as you look at the studio and you look at the release schedule and the slate and what is this powerful fly wheel dynamic for disney into their distribution and their theme parks, how are you assessing the next 12 months >> i think they have been performing very well i mean, the recent earnings were quite good the stock has note responded for reasons that i think go beyond any earnings issues. but i think the company has been working well the problem is that, you know, that the creative thing is the heart of the company and there is no more industry

than hollywood entertainment that depends on relationships. and bob iger was the master of that he could take a star, a director, a studio executive to lunch or dinner, and they always came out feeling great about it. it's going to be hard to replace him in that respect. but chapek has not shown that interest in or affinity for the creative people that fuel that pipeline into disney and many of these recent successful projects have their roots years ago and iger himself continued to play a very big role in the creative process until he left finally not that long ago so i think that this is one of the things that people worry most about, which is chapek's relationship to the creative community. >> any chance maybe that bob iger could come back down the road we just saw it with kevin johnson and howard schultz it's making everybody think bring back the storied predecessor.

>> well, i would never say never. i think that's an unlikely scenario been had a long run there, very, very successful. i'm note sure he would want to step back in, except on maybe a very short-term day. but there is, and again, i don't think the board is anywhere near replacing chapek at this point there are candidates out there i mean, disney has a long tradition of promoting from within but in their former ceo tom staggs and kevin mayer, who was the architect of their very successful streaming strategy, they do have former executives sitting out there who would certainly seem to be very viable replacements should they reach the decision that they need to do that. but by no way am i suggesting that the board is at the point of getting rid their recently hand-picked choice as ceo.

>> always great to speak with you. thank you for your time. >> thank you >> james stewart of "the new york times." guy, what'sdisney's biggest problem? >> i think that's exactly their biggest problem, the fact that now they have the bulls-eye on their back and the market is shooting first and asking questions later. that's a big problem what's really working for them, go back to february 9th, the first quarter. 1:07, 30% better than the street was looking for. stock closed 147 it was 160 like this gave it all back for, a myriad of different reasons for the first time in a while, especially at this price, i think you can make a case for disney just on valuation alone for the first time in the last few years. disney the d in my dawn trade. i'm going stand by that. the second half of the year could be great for the stock >> dan, your take? >> the stock is in a really tough take if you look at the low, the recent high last year, it's right at the mid point from 80 to 200s, back near 140 here.

it doesn't seem like there is much of a direction. i would say this to your question to jim about whether iger comes back. if chapek makes a couple more moves, let's make no mistake about it this has got to be iger's board. he just left as the chairman here iger is coming back. he is a legendary ceo. he probably did three of the best deals in the history of media, and that's lucas, marvel, and pixar, and that's the sort of mojo you would put back in place before you go to a kevin mayer or something like that to me, iger comes back, ending more problems. >> iger comes back and the stock goes up, what, brian kelly can the stock stay there is it just a problem at the top, or is it a real deep problem in terms of the direction of disney and how it's being run >> yeah, well, if you change -- if iger comes back, then it's going to be run like it was before i actually think the stock sets up pretty wet here all of this dirty laundry is out there. what is it, sunlight is the best

disinfectant pick your cliche, but this is all out there right now. any positive note, whether it's chapek doing something different, iger coming back, them picking someone else, anything gets this stock higher. i could say for a trade and trade only you could probably buy it against 130 as your stock. >> tim, the shareholder, who do you want the to see as ceo >> it all points on iger i think chapek, i want to see him still stay in that chair that would sig nigh phi way too much tumult at disney. i realize there may be a culture change that happens all the time. they've also restructured the entire company and they had to. around their distribution platforms and versus their content. let's give this one some time. i own the stock. i don't think it's expensive it's not cheap >> all right coming up, a tale of two banks wells fargo and jp morgan traveling two different paths over the past year traders sounding a warning call

on one of these two names. next, the trade goes to 11 the s&p metals and mining surging to its highest level in more than a decade we're digging into that when "fast money" returns get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time anywhere follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back, right after this (vo) verizon business unlimited is going ultra! get more. like manny. event planning with our best plan ever. (manny) yeah, that's what i do. (vo) with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities,

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welcome back to "fast money. the heavy metal trade is rocking. take a look at the xme trading at levels not seen since august 2011. shares of century aluminum, uranium energy and alcoa leading the way. b.k., you've been in the uranium space. you are out now? >> yeah. unfortunately, i sold most of my position last friday but i've been looking to get back into uranium for a couple of different reasons number owone, the reason why it was up today is russia likely said it was not going to export any more uranium but ultimately, the solution to all of europe's energy problems and frankly all of the u.s. and the world's energy problems, if you want to go green, you can't go green without yellow. yellow cake, that is

uranium is the solution, and there is not a lot of it around. i still like the uranium trade i'll be a buyer and pull that. >> so what's the blue? any way, tim where are you on the trade >> ccj is one way the play it. it's the pure u.s. pay to play we talked about this story on friday i've been talking about it for a month, really since russia invaded ukraine, because today, as brian pointed out, is the day. friday secretary granholm pointed out the u.s. needs to provide more aid and supplies to u.s. we heard from russia today they are going to ban russian uranium exports. i think this story continues diversified minors bhp, rio tinto i think bhp is the best integrated in a diversified mining company >> alcoa went to 92, back to 71, back to $90. i think it's at trade levels we last saw in '07. we had the general on last week when u.s.steel reported.

we talked about earnings don't get caught up in an earnings story it's not about earnings. it's about your belief that they're going to continue to operate well in this environment where prices still continue to go higher. look at what u.s. steel has done since. >> does it matter that energy prices have spiked to much as an input cost >> it's an input cost, but they're so levered to the underlying price of their commodity. and i don't think these are dropping you've had some ag response. you will have some ag response with some of the metals and the pgms i don't think you can see that type of supply response even though the best thing for higher commodity prices is -- >> higher commodity prices mel, i know before we have to go to break, are you a fan of "this is spinal tap. and don't make the face at me. are you and nigel? >> sure. >> go to your local blockbuster over this weekend and rent "this is spinal tap. you won't be disappointed. >> get your beat beth that max out. a new york in the road shows wells fargo and jp morgan going in different directions this year but do the charts tell the whole

story? the bank trade yet some software m&a action bets on moves in another big player we've got the moves when "fast money" returns

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welcome back to "fast money. call it a tale of twobanks wells fargo and jp morgan heading in wildly different directions the past year wells is up nearly 30% while jp morgan is down penn% dan, you pointed this out. >> yeah, i mean, mel, one of the things that sticks out to me here is just that wells is up 7% on the year. it's down 15% from its recent high jp morgan acts very differently in my opinion. it started going down precipitously after that q4 report i know investors were very about some of their expenses since then, the exposure internationally is one of the reasons weighing on this stock they get 23 or 24% of their sales from overseas where as wells fargo gets none. and that might be one of the reasons for the relative outperformance year to date at wells. but going back to the first discussion that we had about a yield curve inverting, about mortgage rates going higher, about rates going higher, wells is very exposed to u.s. consumer

here so this one might look a little bit like a value trap. it's traded about 1.1 versus let's say jp and bank of america near 1.4 interest or something like that. to me, keep an eye on wells fargo. if it were to lose that relative outperformance, that might be telling you something about what's going on here in the u.s. as related to the consumer and maybe expectations for balance of the year. >> so this is really one of our favorite games that we play here on "fast money," value trade or value trap, brian kelly. so how would you character wells fargo? >> oh, i would call that a value trap for sure. for all the things that dan pointed out. i think it is benefitting from its relative insulation from the outside world where jp morgan we know even just last week was revealed that they were the largest counterparty to the nickel trade that went bad so that is going to be a headwind for jp morgan's stock but does that not mean that

wells fargo is in a better place. when you look further out on the yield curve it is flattening out. that's not a great environment for banks as well. if you look at some of the investment grade bonds, those yields are going up. maybe there is some default risk being priced in there i again think that is what makes it a trap rather than a trade or whatever the value thing that you said it was. trap or trade, fade it, i don't know >> speaking of nickel, they just canceled a bunch of trades, again. a second round of trades got canceled on this exchange. >> extraordinary and it sets a horrible precedent. and we haven't seen this before. this is a major concern, and it looks like they can almost do whatever they want, which is not why you're at an exchange. >> markets are broken. when something like that happens, i mean, that's 147-year-old exchange i believe. first time in the history something like this happened and i won't play the game. but what i will say is in january of 2020, before everything cratered, jp morgan was making an all-time high of

about 1$138 past resistance becomes support and we are there now i think you could be long jp morgan off a 20% sell-off at current levels >> let's take another look at nike sarah eisen has been listening to the calls, got the latest sarah? >> hi, melissa i can share with you the guidance, which should come as a relief for investors that is they're sticking with their numbers for 2022 they expect revenues to be up mid single digits. they expect that the gross margins will expand at least 150 basis points both of those things they have said previously in the december quarter. the only thing a little different is sgn and growth is the costs are going to grow in the mid teens. and that is better than the mid to high teens. a lot of concern going in that they would have to change numbers given the increased shutdowns in over covid, the supply chain delays. they actually strike a tone of optimism, the nike executives, that is, saying those things are improving. they say all the vietnam

factories are back on line but inventory is beginning to improve, though transit times are a ill will longer. as for the all important china question, on the call they said they expect to see another quarter of sequential improvement in china they do expect to see a decline in north america for this coming quarter, but that's because of tougher comparisons. and then next quarter is their last fiscal fourth quarter of the year so they said looking ahead to 2023, they remain optimistic that it's going to be another year of growth but they're going give a little more color on that in the next quarter. so overall, melissa, i would say a much more confident projection and the only other piece of news i'll add is the business remains shut down in russia and ukraine. the cfo communicated that's less than 1% of total company revenue. if you've been watching foot footlocker's stock, you noticed the big declines nike confirmed that they have cut 50% of their wholesale accounts just over the last few years or so as they have really relooked at that business and

focused on direct to consumer. they said the communication, though, is finished with those big account pivots and now they're going look forward to collaborating a little bit more. so maybe some pain ease there at the footlockers of the world who were worried about nike cutting off these accounts but that has happened on a large scale. >> we see the reaction in the after hour session thank you. basically, sticking by their numbers for the current quarter, tim. but not setting any sort of bar for the next year since their year ends in this current quarter. >> and they just talked about their fiscal q4. the comps are very difficult, and they're going to be down somewhat very much release in terms of inventories and supply and different geographies that are thawing. and the concerns that they have on china i mean, these are all things that we knew and again, china was down 5% last quarter as it looks to this quarter. it doesn't sound like they're terribly optimistic there either >> so is this just everything is fine >> i don't think everything is

fine at all. i think you have another 5 to 6% that 145 level will be resistance you can say inventory is up 15% year-o year-over-year that's a good thing against 5% sales growth the flip side of that coin is you have an inventory build and you don't have the demand on the back of it, you're going the hurt margins i think you can continue to own the stock for another 7 bucksish from current 11s but then in trading parlance, french word you sell the double. >> you learned that over the years. >> nobody talks like that anymore. >> that's false. patently false i just said it so by definition, it's false. >> you say it, not people in general. brian kelly, what sarah mentioned about cutting off some of the distribution, that's interesting. karen finerman, the chairwoman, has been in that trade for a long time and signaled some concern about footlocker, and here we are. we're actually hearing it from nike itself. >> yeah, exactly that's another headwind for any of these retailers out there but i actually found this nike

report, this nike conference call to be relatively positive i think. they're saying listen, things aren't going to be as bad as everybody expected, and i think it feeds into that more broader equity narrative that hey, listen fed is going to crush inflation in a very short period of time which i think is false but that's what the equity market thinks. and then everything is going to be okay because the consumer is still strong that's basically what nike just told you i think i agree with guy you can own this for a little bit more it's a trade i think you'll be all right. >> so, dan, just quick question. is nike a bellwether or is it an exception? how do we read this news >> i think that's a good -- i think it is a bellwether and i think it all trades at a premium and it will trade at a premium. i think it's down an awful lot i think its lows recently was down 26, 27% from its highs made last year. so the question is whether you believe that q4 is going to come in the way they just guided.

i suspect it's a disappointment. and then q1 is also going to be kind of murky. to me, i think near term, get it up to 145, maybe take some profits and look for a lower entry. >> coming up, cloud options. a big deal in the software space. eyeing another big name. we'll tell you how they're playing this one, when "fast money" returns ♪ ["fly me to ♪ ♪ ♪ imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon? in other words... etoro.the power of social investing.

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welcome back to "fast money. check out the huge move in anaplan. the deal sparking a flour of options mark khow. >> you expect the stock to rise but then cease to exist after the cash buyout. so basically, you want to buy near dated calls and sell out of the money elongated calls. that's exactly what we saw in coupa software which traded more than 2.5 times its daily options. the trade that caught my eye was the april 15 calls trading for about 15 cents that same buyer sold a thousand of the january 2023 175 strike calms for $4.40 a contract they were collecting premium, trying to take advantage of that dynamic, maybe making a similar bet to what we saw in anaplan.

>> 5:30 friday eastern time. up next, final trade

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take a look at the final trades for this monday evening thanks for watching "fast. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast. in theeaim "d ne mnte,mamoy" with jim cramer starts right now. i'm here to tllevel the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to mad money just trying to make money. my job is not just to entertain you but educate and teach you. call me or tweet me. the long knives, they're out for jay powell hardly day