and precious metals. >> dan. >> spy put my final trade. >> thanks for watching "fast money." see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 ar rhtthimrar j cme sttsig now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. call me or tweet me @jimcramer here's what the true bears, the ones who hate the market never seem to get. when push comes to shove, a lot of people believe that things

will go right. and that's how you get a day like today where the dow gained 250 points s&p jumped 1.3% and nasdaq crushed it, going up 1.95% let me say right up front, the market shouldn't be going up we have rampant inflation. rates flying higher. the specter of companies missing estimates. a behind the curve federal reserve. and a non-zero chance of nuclear war thanks to the unhinged leadership of vladimir putin so how the heck can we rally where did all the sellers go for two weeks we had sellers willing to go through buyers, meaning they didn't care if they sold stock below what the buyers were willing to pay. they just wanted out things are arguably worse now than they were back then, but the market is holding up better. does that make any sense at all to you the answer is yes, it does

if, and only if you suspend your rigor and just have hope now, i will never endorse hope as an investment strategy, but when you zoom out, it's kind of an interestsing mindset. when i got into the business some 40-odd years ago, the dow was at 1,000, and now it's near 35,000 there were a lot of moments when the market went up even though it didn't deserve to given the inputs, but then we find out the inputs are wrong, and the rally made sense don't tell the bears, but you couldn't gain 34,000 points on the backs of false information and a too easy federal reserve so let's take two weeks ago versus today we know that every major inflationary input has gotten worse by the day and we have now become numb to the slaughter in ukraine because putin is crazy enough to go nuclear if the united states gets directly involved rather than mutually assured

destruction, he's embracing richard nixon's mad men theory, where you scare you opponents into staying on the sidelines. if things are worse than two weeks ago, why is there more hope last week, we had a fed meeting with jay powell made sure everyone knows he's poised to raise interest rates rapidly because the economy is overheated the result, one of the greatest rallies in years then yesterday, powell once again talked about inflation, saying he would think nothing of a 50 basis point double rate hike at the next meeting initially, the market took this statement negatively yesterday, like powell was saying he would be willing to destroy the economy in order to save it. 50 basis points here, 50 basis points there pretty soon you're talking about real rate hikes. today, upon further review, hope, wall street reached a different conclusion a conclusion that was more like what happened last week when the market roared after powell's first rate hike. see, a week ago, there were plenty of skeptics

two camps, those that believe powell could easily throw us into recession if he isn't careful and those who believe powell is a big softy who is too late to meaningfully stop inflation. inlatter camp has zero respect for powell, i think you're wrong, but i won't bother castigating them i'm take it out on some of my more hateful twitter followers later this evening there are fewer skepticals last week, we saw a jay powell who realizes things weren't going his way. yesterday, we saw jay powell who struck the perfect balance he won't throw us in recession but he will go to great lengths to stamp out inflation he was forceful albeit flexible. in other words, wall street now has a lot more confidence in powell as an inflation fighter the companies that are seen their stocks soar because of inflation prices, they have to get used to a world with less pricing power and the stocks

that do well in recession, maybe they're not as great buys as we thought. the drugs, health care, they took it on the chin. this is a remarkable moment because it's not supposed to be this good. there should be more people saying powell will fail, and there should equally be people who say this economy can't handle the breaks, but the silence is deafening how could people be so confident that powell won't crush the economy? i think it's many of the biggest investors that this economy is so strong it can handle a series of rate hikes because so much of the spending we're seeing is the normalization of remote work that said, while i appreciate hope as a mind set, i'm not as confident as a lot of buyers paying up at the end of the day. we're seeing a level of enthusiasm here that to me feels unjustified. we shouldn't be going back to mentality where we like all stocks because so many of them will miss their numbers and some of us will be hit with negative

forecasts. however, it's clear many strocks that were stuck in a prolonged bear market have been sprung by powell's comments. the ones that have been obliterated since november have gotten a new lease on life, but here's the problem tons of those stocks just aren't worth much, regardless of whether powell steers us into a soft landing or a hard landing we have been saturated with awful merchandise, the greedy men and women of wall street from garbage ipos to garbage spac plays they're a millstone around the market's neck and they'll go back in the penalty when we get more economic data that is hot if the numbers are scorching, people realize powell has to tighten more aggressively and this group will get dumps. why not dump it before people will wonder what these newly minted stocks are worth. why not get ahead of that? let's recognize this is a moment wall street recognizes jay powell is ready to use all of the tools at his disposal to

slow down the economy. one last thought that i think many of you have if a company is doing really great, what the heck does it matter about the fed i sympathize with that view. companies should be values on their own merits but that's not always how it works. there are periods, extreme periods, where the economy gets so out of whack that the stock market itself becomes a pariah asset class. a source of funds for other asset classes. so an individual company merit won't be reflected in its share price unless it catches a takeover bid given the justice department and the ftc seem hostile to mergers, i wouldn't hold my breath. anything that brings down inflation will make big institutional money managers morlikely to buy stocks rather than sell them for the moment, that's what controls the stock market as long as the war goes on and the economy breeds inflation, soon

few can afford i'm starting the day going with cortez in texas. cortez >> caller: cramer, long time follower cortez in mckinney, texas. thank you. three-part question about the big company dupont that's been around forever >> right >> caller: do you think they have the strategies to continue to deliver to our shareholders and what about the superb sales? >> this is a really tough problem. we bought this stock very low for the travel trust and we told cnbc's investing club when it went higher, it's time to liquidate. why? we just don't know how much more oomph there could be in that stock. we think ed is doing a great job, long term it's fine, but short term it's not the place we want to be let's stick with texas and go to carson in texas. carson >> caller: boo-yah, jim. this is carson >> boo-yah >> caller: make sure to say hi to david for me. >> david faber love him

>> caller: the stock i'm calling about is crm salesforce. got in last year around $280 it's around $220 after being about $190 earlier in the month. do you think it can pull back? >> i tell the investing club it remains one of my absolute favorite companies there are various times where this stock has been horrendous, and if you take a look at between 2015 and 2016, you would just feel this was the worst stock in the world and then benioff comes roofing back with a great set of numbers and a terrific acquisition i wouldn't sell salesforce i told the investing club to buy salesforce we need to bow down to the the fed and the force of inflation there's always a bull market somewhere. so could there be one in the ag stocks i'm going to take a closer look at the space >> then, why can't wall street get a handle on what to do with nike i'm giving you my take >> and i'm learning more about the deal with the ceo and why some big company doesn't buy one of the divisions stay with cramer

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i keep telling you menu of potential winning secotors has gotten spottier. although on days like today, we can see that almost all stocks benefit from the possibility that jay powell could put us on a course where inflation might be peaking

as i mentioned at the top, there are a couple sectors that are so strong it doesn't matter what the fed does and one of those incredibly strong sectors is agriculture. the war in ukraine has created an explosive rally in ag, especially wheat given russia and ukraine account for roughly a third of the world's wheat production, there's a possibility we could be looking at a global food shortage as this drags on. for now, i want to focus on what this means for the ag complex. corn is up nearly 20% year to date soybeans, 26%. wheat, wheat, the fundament of what we eat, is up 45% we'll go into more detail on wheat and corn later when we check in on our resident commodities expert this should give you an idea of the magnitude of this move i think the best approach is betting on a basket of ag related stocks when farmers make money, they pour it into seeds and equipment and fertilizer

i want to give you some options. are y have five i like and a few more i'm on the fence about. let's start with adm, everyone calls it adm this is one of the world's top crop origination processing places they provide seeds and all sorts of services to farmers from transportation to trade financing to milling they do almost everything to turn crops into usable services. they have a lot of exposure to corn and soybeans in particular. i recommended adm in january because it's a dividend aristocrat they have boosted their payout for 47 years in a row, not that they get any credit for that given the stock is up 30% for the year, that was a pretty good call adm had a gigantic run and sells for less than 17 times earnings, and i think the earnings estimates are way too low. adm has already beaten the earning estimates for ten straight quarters and that was before the russo-ukrainian war

sent the industry into overdrive. i'm going to reiterate my buy, adm. second is corteva, the step child of this ridiculous merger, the maker of seeds and pesticides created a few years ago when dow went with dupont. the stock did nothing for next to a year and caught fire at the end of 2020. now, the stock is on the move again, up 20% for the year, and regularly hitting new all-time highs. when they reported the most recent results in early february, the numbers were lackluster and the outlook was not so hot however, not long after, russia invaded ukraine. and with the bread basket of europe turning into a war zone, i have to believe farmers in the rest of the world will invest in seeds and pesticides to boost production and that's why the stock has been able to roar higher right now, it's trading at 23 times last year p's earnings estimates. i would still perf to wait for a

p pullback before pulling the trigger. this is buy, this is pullpack. how about farm equipment meeting deere and agco deere is the largest player and gets the majority of revenues from the united states by the way, you know why that is because of tariffs all over the world. thanks to the ag bull market, the stock keeps hitting new high after new high it doesn't hurt that even before the russian invasion, deere was putting up magnificent numbers when they reported in mid-february, they had a mammoth earnings beast and raised their full year forecast substantially. the resulting grain shortage is only going to make them stronger in the medium term which is why bank of america raised their price target from $425 to $475 this morning i think they're right. especially since they have this new driverless tractor coming up soon that should save farmers fortunes a lot of having to run a farm goes back and forth and back and forth and you waste a guy who you have to pay a lot of money when you could do it by a

joysteak deere is currently selling for less than 19 times earnings. only a tier higher than the historical earnings multiple this deserves more of a premium, and if this $427 stock ever pulls back to $400, i would back up the truck how about agco i have been a fan of the farm equipment company for a decade, but while the stock is up 20% for the year, it's still 10% off the highs of ten months ago. they got a heck of a lot cheaper, much cheaper stock than deere, 12 times estimates. this one is much more expensive than this one. but this one's got all the sex and the pizzazz. these guys have more european exposure the company does get 3% of its sales from russia. i don't think it justifies the enormous discount. doesn't make sense we know agco delivered a tremendous set of numbers in february, and truly phenomenal forecast they bought back a ton of stock

much lower that was before russia invaded ukraine and crop prices exploded it has something else going for it like so many of our favorite oil stocks, they adopted a variable dividend strategy. last year, they paid out a juicy $4 special dividend. sp remember when this was in the $50s and nobody was paying attention but me we should find out about the next special payment in april. assuming it's the same as last year, it works out to be a 3.5% yield. if you like this, by the way, i'm going to give you heads-up, we'll speak to agcro's ceo late this week. i don't know inthey can still go higher because they're a nonpromotional company, but it's a good company how about a retailer you know what's my favorite. i wear this hat all around summit, new jersey people say jim, why are you wearing that hat tractor supply i wear it because i like it. long time cramer fave.

while it's more of a play on rural consumers, although i have a lot of carhartt, i also get my lady bugs there. they sell a lot of things you need to run a farm or like, you know, a gentleman gardener like i am even without the booming market, tractor supply is a huge beneficiary from the urban rural exodus as a response to the pandemic this has a 77% dividend boost in january, huge sign of confidence, and their stores are pure joy in the spring now, let's talk first. this group has caught fire since russia invaded ukraine mosaic is the second best performer in the s&p 500 cf industries is the seventh best performer nutrient, too small to be in the sp, up more than 37% i think it can go higher why? russia and its ally belarus produce nearly 40% of the world's patash and they have been heavily sanctioned. sometimes these are hard i know i'm late on these, but sometimes stocks go down and you

grab them. i have to wonder maybe the fertilizers have run too much. mosaic is up 71% if you buy these names, you're betting the sanctions will last longer than wall street is expecting. i have no idea when the war will end, so it's a real risk my advice, if you want to bet on the fertilizers, recognize the short term trade, not an investment prepare to cut your losses, and again, i admit i have been late on these as opposed to the others here's the bottom line we have raging bull market in agriculture and the best way to play it is with a basket of stocks i like adm, corteva, deere, agco, and tractor supply i think they're winners. stick with cramer. >> coming up, with major global exposure, can this stock just do it for investors or has inflationary pressure already done in the good times for nike find out next.

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here's a quandary. wall street has never been able to process sports, which is why it can't process the stock of nike the street doesn't get it because the street doesn't speak the language of sports look, i could go through the surprising numbers we got from nike 87 cents of earnings per share and also looking for 71, $10.9 billion in rev but they mean nothing in the vast scheme of things. what really matters is when you look at the chart, it's clear nike's largest investors have one foot out the door before the quarter and the short sellers thought they cracked it once and for all. now it feels like the shorts are playing checkers and nike is playing ches the company has so many ways to win. that's why i am betting the stock is out of its rut and ready for a much bigger run. it's a purpose driven business, designed to make you a better

athlete or at least let you idolize better athletes the same way i wanted steve fontaine's shoes when i was running track knight knew who we wanted to emulate, the greatest of time, whether it was jordan or lebron or any of the great athletes because it sure seems nike has them all under contract, both men and women, which brings me to the first sports metaphor i want you to use when it comes to nike separation all football announcers talk about the need to get separation from defenders you hear the term separation over and over again on nike's magnificent conference call. if you can maintain separation, you'll score every time. nike has totally separated from its competitors who just can't catch them left in the wake second major strength, relentless innovation. you may think you're buying sneakers when you're buying nikes. you would be wrong you're buying a tech delivery system including a proprietary platform of shoes that are built

with something called interlocking modules which connect the shoe without glue, allowing for an eight-minute assembly yet another source of separation i know there's a lot of oconcern that the foot lockers of the world aren't going to get the right shoes from nike, but i submit what nike cares about is the customer, not the venue where shoes are sold believe me, if nike needed foot locker to move its merchandise, they would be all in on foot locker the reality is they don't really need them. customers increasingly want to buy their shoes online with the digital app, so nike is spending a fortune on the direct to consumer digital business. why deal with a middle man when you don't have to, although they will satisfy foot locker's demand somewhat, because there's nothing wrong with having a presence in the mall just like apple, nike's all about the customer first not the shareholder, and certainly not the retail vendors. whether tim cook is on the board of the company, cook and the ceo share values as if they were twins. honestly, there's so much in this nike conference call about what customers might want that it's ridiculous to worry over

how they'll get their favorite shoes or where they'll get them. they're going to get them wherever is most convenient. finally, my ultimate takeaway, nike even after all these years is cool. cool to the point that it won some honor in china for being the coolest brand. there's that separation again. the chinese government is not keen on american companies but some brands are so big, they transcend national borders and nike's brand is one of them. the bottom line, none of this would mean anything if nike weren't having a terrific spring or if they had manufacturing problems or serious supply chain. the supply chain was the only issue as they have a problem in the u.s. and they're going to fix that if they were out of tyle, i would be worried, but these are shoes that go up in value after you buy them, for heaven's sake. consider it a blessing the biggest issue is not too much supply. it's way too much demand charles in georgia, charles. >> caller: good day to you, mr. cramer >> what's going on >> caller: okay, yeti holdings, last three years may through september timeframe, the stock has performed well

the company has announced a $100 share buyback. it's way off the highs and it's had strong sequential earnings growth do you like it here? >> your position is just like ben stodo, which rhymes with photo, who is our research director, and he likes yeti very much and i'm with you. my yeti cooler is a little too heavy, but it really works it's heavy they're very heavy some informed input from someone who works on the floor, my executive producer let's go to dave, also in georgia. we had texas, texas, then georgia, georgia dave in georgia, dave. >> caller: hey, cramer >> yeah. >> caller: i'm interested in peloton. >> okay, all right okay. >> caller: with the new ceo and new supply chain strategy, do you see uptime at today's stock price? >> okay, barry mccarthy was appointed ceo when the stock was at $27, and i changed my mind

and said instead of putting the hate on peloton, i now like peloton, because barry mccarthy is one tough guy and that's what they needed. they needed a tough person to come in and take out the cost and straighten things out. that's barry i wouldn't get in the way of barry if my life depended on it. barry is a good man. let's go to brandon in my home state of new jersey. brandon. >> caller: boo-yah, mr. cramer greetings from the jersey shore. first time caller, long time listener >> an ocean grove man from way back what's up? >> caller: thank you for all you do love your twitter feed as much as i love the show >> i took a little break, but then my doctor told me he likes the hits, so i'm right back. my doctor says it's the right thing to do, and yeah, i know, he was up today, and amc, fabulous you're down so big go ahead, i'm sorry. >> caller: love it my question is about callaway

golf i purchased this after the dip when they acquired top golf and have been adding to that regularly. they peaked last may and gone down ever since. there's been some recent insider buys that's giving me hope what's the story here? >> i like drew cole. i think a lot of people got out of this because they felt it was a pandemic name. well, it's ridiculous. golf is a sport that people love and i think it's way too low and i think you're right to want to buy it. >> nike's biggest issue, wow, high quality problem too much demand. and not enough supply. >> much more "mad money" including my exclusive with balance health i think we have something cooking here future could be clearer for the eyecare maker. >> and then wheat and corn prices, what a drag. i am worried about famine, so we're going off the charts on the two commodities to see what the future could hold, and your calls rapid fire in the lightning round. stay with cramer

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last year, we learned that ballast health companies, the farmee artist formerly known as valiant broke into three businesses spinning off sulant medical and bausch and lomb for eye care we swiftly bought it for the travel trust, recommended the stock on the show. since then, it's kind of drifted slightly lower why? because boush wanted to spin off the two divisions via ipos and the market is frozen over. sooner or later, i think they'll be able to deliver leaving you with a solid drug company, but how long will we have to wait? let's check in with joe papa, the ceo of bausch health care

companies. welcome back to "mad money." >> great to be with you. >> joe, i know the ipo markets are frozen, but sometimes when you have unbelievably good businesses, this is the deal time you get all the focus, there's nothing else in the pipe yowlu'll have complete attention of wall street why not do this now? >> yeah, jim, we are looking at this every day we're working with our advisers. we think we have great advisers. we have really, i think, two priorities, i would say. we want to move as expeditiously as we can, and number two, we want to maximize shareholder value creation what we're looking for is i'm going to use the word appropriate market conditions. market conditions we track every day when we look at the volatility index or the vix. we also have seen it come down it was 36 and it's now improved down to somewhere in the 23 range, i think also, we're looking at the market and looking at as values improve in the overall market

values improve, we're looking for that as another metric that we're following. i will say over the last seven days it's getting better, so we keep our fingers crossed as to when we can go forward but the good news for this, jim, is that while we are remaining together as one company, we are generating a significant amount of cash, and as you know, that cash that we're generating will help us to pay down the debt that we have it's good we're continuing to pay down debt, but clearly, we are viewing this opportunity to create three great companies as really the long term game plan to unlock shareholder value, and that's what we want to do, maximize the shareholder value creation and move as expeditiously as possible. >> let me ask you, joe, rbc, which is a complementary firm, they value the bausch pharma business at negative 70 cents, joe. do you think that's -- that's not value creation the last i

looked >> well, i can't comment about any individual analyst model, but what i will say is that i do think as you look at the sum of the parts of what bausch and lomb is worth, what the sultan medical aesthetics business is worth, we looked at it in terms of bausch and lomb and peer companies and they're trading at ebitda multiples twice of what bausch we look at the peer companies of sultan and it's a significantly higher multiple than bausch health is trading. our belief is we separate these three businesses and create a global diversified bausch pharma business all of these will create shareholder value creation >> i want to talk about eye care for a second the notion of young people with myopic eye problems is something that no one else talks about you have got the floor on that

i think that young sxeempeople d parents should listen to what you have to say. >> unfortunately, this is a continuing, we can call it a myopia or near sighted epidemic. what we're seeing right now is that the incidents, especially of youth statistics has gone from 20% myopia in the 1950 timeframe to somewhere close to 40% today, and it's on its way to 50% and the view we have is that what we believe part of the problem is that children, especially younger children, are spending a lot more time with video games, computer games, indoors with ipads and iphones and less time outdoors we think that's a contributory factor to the myopia we're seeing in terms of the programs that we're seeing with all of the time they spend on the video screens. that's what we think is contributing to this our view as a company is we're going to clearly help children with contact lenses if needed,

but importantly, we're going to look at pharmaceutical products. we have one under development right now that will help delay the progression of myopia for children we're going to attack the myopia problem in as many ways as we can. we think that's one of the integrative platform opportunities we have that's exciting for the future. >> my feeling is that the one that is most undervalued is your dermatology business the dermoffices are just now beginning to open because those were places felt you would get covid and it could have been delayed. what are you hearing from the dermatologists about what's going on in those businesses right now? >> the medical aesthetic business is doing extraordinarily well, and we view a lot of this, jim, towards what's happened even during the covid timeframe, as many of us sat in front of computer screens and saw the high definition and said to ourselves, when did i get that old looking on the high

definition screen? i think that's one of the things that happened here that people have termed it the zoom culture as we all looked at it i think people are making the investment in the medical aesthetic side of the business i do think that people view the sultan business very valuable here because they can do it in a non-invasive, non-surgical approach to doing the aesthetics of improving their facial appearances. as an example, with our thermage which has gone extraordinary well compounding the growth rate of that over the last four years has been somewhere in the 30-plus percent range. so it's clearly growing, and we see a really bright future for medical aesthetics >> look, i just think, obviously, i would have bought it for my travel trust and i wouldn't have told members be in it if i didn't feel it was substantial and the old bausch and lomb business, just that, i think is worth the price of the stock. i would love to see these pieces come public because i think they're undervalued and they

would very quickly go to, i mean, come on, when you look at a company like beauty health, how could they be worth more that doesn't make sense. it doesn't make sense to me, so it's time, joe it's time. >> we agree, jim >> you're paying those guys millions i'm telling you there's nothing in the pipe. we want to hear from you about these three great businesses >> we're excited, jim. we're excited to get them out. we are making all the things that need to happen internally happen we're doing all of the filing. had to file the fourth quarter financials with the s.e.c. that is in the process of occurring right now. we're ready. we just want to make sure we're doing it with the appropriate market conditions to drive that shareholder value and as i said, move as expeditiously as we can. we're getting ready and we're ready to cross that threshold. >> our shareholders are ready. thank you for coming on the show, the chairman and ceo of

bausch health companies. great to see you thank you for coming on. >> thank you, jim. have a great day >> "mad money" is back after the break. >> just chill out. >> chill master jay. >> the chill man is in the house. >> the lightning round is coming up when "mad money" returns

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massmutual. the lightning round. and then the lightning round is over are you ready?

let's start with clayton in florida. clayton. >> caller: hey, jim. just curious to see what you think about cano health. >> i think very little of it let's buy cvs. that's much better how about brett in texas brett. >> caller: hey, jim. how's it going boo-yah? >> boo-yah right back. >> caller: reason for my call, ccj's ticker, what do you think? >> everyone wants geranium i'm going to bless it. it's like i should have blessed the carrier and zim. i'm going to put it on my list as three things you can roll the dice and it's going to come up good i need to go to robert in new jersey robert >> caller: yes, i am here. jim, i just wonder if you could give me insight into a company called thor industries >> the problem with it is people decided there's no doubt about it was a pandemic play these are pseudopandemic plays that keep getting hurt i like thor here, but i'm not

bucking the trend. bud in ohio, bud >> caller: this is your long fan bud in beautiful akron, ohio >> i always thought that about akron. it's underrated chronically. what's going on? >> caller: i always take your advice very seriously, and i have been looking to find companies that are preferably u.s. domestic. profitable, and return cash to shareholders since my family has certainly felt the effects of inflation that has been building the past 14 months. i would like your opinion on a play that could greatly benefit from the fact that it's spending $20 billion building factories on my doorstep in central ohio do you still like huntington bank >> i like them very much by the way, i like first horizon when nobody likes it hey, where are they now? you know what, they're like, they bought amc at $40 now we're going to colorado. >> caller: hey, jim. how are you? >> i am doing well, thank you.

how about you? >> caller: yeah, i'm doing very well thanks for putting me on the show i have a question about a stock that's name is iot - >> yeah, when you do these tracking companies, you're up against too many -- too competitive. it's too competitive i have to say icksnay on that one. kevin. >> caller: boo-yah from west virginia i was just looking at the three-month chart of micron and noticed a bullish inverse head and shoulders. >> i saw that myself when i was going over the micron notes because they're reporting. they're reporting very soon. on the 29th. and i say buy. that's the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade coming up, commodities gone crazy. cramer goes against the grain and off the charts on the

growing problem for markets, next ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

tonight, i want to talk about a word that you often

don't hear me talk about in the modern era famine we spent a lot of time dealing with the three other horsemen of the apocalypse but in the developed word, famine is not a 21st century problem, or at least it wasn't. thanks to the stalled russian invasion of ukraine, the bread basket of europe, and ensuing sanctions on russia, there are vast swaths of the globe that could soon struggle to find bread, and even in places that remain well supplied, wheat prices have gone through the roof, it's no longer affordable. of course, commodities tent to be volatile by their very nature, but at the moment, the action is psychotic because commodity markets are driven by massive amounts of leverage. people buying and selling with borrowed money it's not just precious metals that have gone nuts, too just greed that has caused volatility you can blame the crazy commodity action on the russian invasion of ukraine, but that's only part of the story

the thing about commodity markets is there's tons of financial trading that's utterly disconnected from the underlying fundamentals which means you can't truly get your head around the moves unless you're familiar with the market mechanics. today i want to focus on grain skyrocketing bread prices almost always create geopolitical turbulence historically, it's the number one cause of revolution. there's a reason that famine is one of the four horsemen so we're going to go off the charts with the help of carly garner who is the cofounder of carly trading and the author of higher probability commodity trading because she's our resident commodities expert. first, you need to understand the fundamental backdrop thanks to the war and ensuing sanctions on russia, the price of wheat has scry rocketed because ukraine and russia account for a third of the world's wheat production talk about oil and gas all the time, but a third. fortunately, the current crop was in the ground before the invasion, but it's hard to

cultivate crops in a war zone, especially when the price of oil and gas is through the roof, but even if ukrainian farmers can harvest the wheat, they normally ship it through ports on the black sea, many of which are now occupied by russia or under siege. in other words, this is how you get a bread shortage let's talk history take a look at the monthly chart of wheat futures this is going back 60 years. she points out like most commodities, wheat tends to trade swoois until something goes wrong and spikes into the stra stratosphere wheatly bounced between $3 and $6 per bushel. it wasn't until 2008 that we saw an insane spike that comes close to the current action. you might not remember, but in 2008, before the financial crisis really exploded, we had a gigantic bull market in commodities. coal was up all the time, thanks to the unusually dry weather in the united states, massively higher oil prices, and the opening of overnight electronic

grain trading, the price of wheat temporarily jumped to $13 a bushel now, thanks to the russian invasion, we have revisited that level. although garner says that the move up this time was even faster and more disorderly that's probably because futures exchanges set price limits on how much a particular commodity can move up in a single session and this creates weird dynamics. for example, when wheat is locked limit up, that's the term, meaning it's gone as far as it can go in one day, the short sellers have their back against the wall they can't exit their positions because nobody wants to sell at the limit price so they're trapped until the next day the first full week after the war began, we had a series of days where wheat was locked little up, creating a sense of panic. garner believes that was a huge driver of wheat's run from $8.60 to $13.60. very little trading right there. although since then, things have calmed down, the price has pulled back a couple bucks now, take a look at the weekly chart of the wheat futures

coupled with cftc's commitments of traders data. remember, this is the report that shows you the net position of the small speculators, large speculators and commercial hedgers. meaning institutional money managers and businesses that need to buy and sell actual wheat. here garner has noticed something very interesting due to the locked limit up trading sessions, large speculators have been able to get long wheat it's been dominated by the short squeeze. even after a few weeks money managers have only begun to nibble at wheat they're nut long by just 12,000 contracts. a very small position. in the past, they can go up to 50,000, which is where she expects before running out of fir firepower. in short, ininstitutional money managers ws want to bet on whea they have a bunch of dry powder. they haven't done it yet, and garner is confident prices are headed higher. after peaking on march 8th, this

is some chart, come on, isn't this amazing after six limit up moves, six, wheat futures have pulled back hard garner points out this decline represents the 50% retracement of the value at the beginning of february, but the pullback stopsbed wheat's 20-day moving average. this is really important because at the same time the relevant strength index which is a very important momentum indicator has retreated from overbought territory while staying positive as long as it holds above the floor of supported $10.30 a bushel which is down roughly 90 cents from here, garner believes wheat can make another run at its highs over the coming weeks or months. i don't think our supermarkets around the world can handle this i just don't that's wheat what about corn? ukraine only accounts if 4% of global output, so take a look at the monthly chart of the may corn futures here we go again this is corn that's used for animal feed and biofuels

while corn didn't explode higher, it still rallied hard because the skyrocketing price of oil translates into more demand for corn based ethanol. so complex it's a disaster if history is any guide, garner thinks the corn rally could be on its last leg, but the last leg can still be a doozy the corn futures are roughly $7.50 per bushel with a ceiling of resistance at $7.70 if corn can break out above the ceiling, garner believes it can retest its all-time highs near $8.50. she doesn't expect corn to burst through that level, but if it somehow manages to keep roaring, shedoesn't see any more resistance until $10.50. that would be a new record if corn gets to that level, we're dealing with an insane level of inflation and powell may need to go nuclear on the economy to get things under control, even though you might say, come on, this is plants bottom line, unless vladimir putin throws in the towel or dropped dead, or zelenskyy compromises, the charts as interpreted by carly garner

suggest both wheat and corn prices are headed higher here. maybe much higher. and that is the last thing we want to see but we might have to get used to it i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to try to find it just for you on "mad money. i' i'm jim cramer see you tomorrow "the news with shepard smith" starts now likmight the tide of this wr be turning the counter attacks underway in ukraine. i'm shepard smith. this is "the news" on cnbc ukraine on offense against putin's war machine. >> the brave citizens of ukraine are refusing to submit they're fighting back. >> now the word of numbers of troops permanently deployed near ukraine may go up. the hearing to support a supreme court justice. >> did you notice the people from the left were cheering you on. >> the attempts to brand her as a liberal soft on crime. >> nothing could be