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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  March 24, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EDT

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it is 5:00 a.m. on woall street roller coaster week rolls on rattling investors and futures pointing to a bounce back today. president biden and nato leaders for a high stakes meeting on russia. russian energy stopping the talks and navigating sanctions and surging costs. now pipeline prices could send oil higher
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here in america, airlines are saying ditch the masks will the white house listen? and one of america's greatest entrepreneurs, tomorrow a thomas tull. his take on what is happening: it is thursday, march 24th, 2022 y you are watching "worldwide exchange." good morning, good afternoon, good evening i'm brian sullivan thank you for joining us on this busy thursday. here is how your money and markets are looking at the 5:00 a.m. hour. stock futures in the green nasdaq futures are up .75% stocks did pull back on wednesday in what is really a choppy trading week so far yesterday, all three major
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indexes falling by more than 1%. rising oil prices is a key factor maybe the key factor in how stocks trade lately. oil staying high right now a new problem with the pipeline with the caspian sea you can see wti crude is at $115 right now. stock futures are up it could be a rare day or stocks and oil move higher. we will see. in bonds, the ten-year yield ticking down a notch certainly well higher than it was a couple of months ago let's go around the world. something is happening that has not happened in a month. russian stocks will reopen for trade in moscow. although with the caveat
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rosanna lockwood is in the london newsroom with that. >> good morning, brian the potential putin ploy playing out in the caspian sea playing out. the ftse 100 is .75% higher. same for the dax in germany. run away prices in germany and italy. president biden has arrived in brussels at nato headquarters. you will have analysis on that in the show. let's talk about the russian stock market reopening the moax the benchmark in russia. we have been up for a month here in europe. moex closed down with shares plunging 33% for february. it has been closed since february 25th. on reopening, it is reopening from 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. local time 30 of the 50 stocks allowed to
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be traded. this was announced by the russian central bank this morning. it is now 7% higher. we can't treat it like a normal stock market no one can short sell. foreigners cannot sell everything is in rubles. retailers trade on this index in russia, but the government will intervene. the national wealth fund promising to buy $1 trillion rubles in the companies by the end of the year. brian. >> rosanna lockwood, it will be interesting to see what happens with russia. we will find out what happens when you can't short sell. to brussels, where president biden and fellow nato leaders are gathered at the headquarters for a key meeting on the russian invasion of ukraine. the president facing more at
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home to help ukraine kayla tausche is joining us from brussels with more ka kayla, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, brian. president biden arriving moments ago with the secretary of state and other leaders for an emergency summit with nato leaders to discuss the war in ukraine which has been going on for a month and reached nato's door step. it is the biggest test for the alli alliance volodymyr zelenskyy will address the nato delegation. putin has made a big mistake and that there is a rusk if chemical weapon ws are used that the weapons would spread into nato territory. today, president biden is expected to announce a new wave of sanctions on russia which
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national security adviser sullivan says will include more oligarchs and russian officials. on friday, the eu and u.s. are expected to increase supplies to europe they are aiming for a commitment of two additional winters. that would be a lot of natural gas needed to replace the supply from russia. coming up next, brian, we are expecting to see all of the 30 nato leaders gathered for what is called a family photo it is a formality, but this time around, it will be a powerful and symbolic show of force as the west looks to unite more punishment on vladimir putin brian. >> kayla, the photo op is nice, to your point, but what is the rest of the timeline the expectation of anything concrete coming out of this
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meeting that can do anything to get putin out of ukraine >> reporter: i think there's going to be coordination on several fronts are on the financial front how much military and humanitarian aid can this group put together for ukraine directly then how much military spending overall will the defense ministries be able to contribute for nato force posture going forward? secretary-general stoltenberg talked about this. he notes a large influx of money coming from the governments to fund nato and kmcommitments goi forward. and coordination in how to respond to certain scenarios how to respond if china provides material support to russia and
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how to respond if a chemical attack spreads into nato territory as well. they need to figure out what to do and make sure they are all on the same page. some of the public comments in the last 24 hours has not been >> i see, kayla, there is a split screen nato leaders are gathering for a photo. i want to come back to you i want to make clear to the audience and from what i understand, correct me, kayla, right now, there are nato nations providing aid to ukraine, but nato as an organization has done very little is that an accurate statement? >> reporter: i think that is an accurate statement because ultimately the funding comes from these specific countries. i note that there have been some other blocks, noteably the eu
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with defense and military aid to ukraine. this has been a precedent setting event that has happened. you can't rule anything out. as of right now, brian, you are correct. it is the funding from the governments themselves >> we are watching on the screen we see boris johnson and others gathering for the photo. kayla tausche, live in brussels. we will see you here on cnbc thank you. back to your markets and money and in reaction to all of this don't blame the selloff on bonds or the fed it is all about oil. we say that because look at this the one-year chart we can make it three or five years and it would not matter. this is the s&p 500 against wti traded crude the orange line is crude and the white line is the s&p.
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the 5% gain yesterday was no difference with those on the street, oil can hit $150 or $200 a barrel this summer, could that mean equity volatility is here to stay joining us now is gina sanchez dp gina, we talk about the fed. the fed matters, but oil is in the stock market driver's seat would you agree? you are in l.a how expensive is the price of gas? >> the local gas station at the corner where i tend to fuel up is $6.30 a gallon. >> whoa. >> it is a biter yeah >> do you think oil is going to continue to be the main driver for the stock market
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>> absolutely. if you look at how oil and quite frankly gas prices tend to affect consumption, it is an immediate tax on consumption that is the big problem right now. we have been in a recovery, post-pandemic and fragile recovery that recovery can be shaken by anything so, a massive tax on consumption like oil is just not what the economy needs right now. you are starting to feel it directly >> yeah. i'm still reeling from the $6.30. that is california and los angeles, gina. that is not a national thing yet. some of the folks like one of the biggest trading houses in the world, not always right, but making comments of $150 or $200 a barrel that could mean $6 national
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gasoline consumer held up so far. corporate earnings looked okay is the worry going to be if oil stays higher for longer? how much more do you think corporate earnings should control the stock market and how long can they withstand the higher input costs >> the challenge right now is for opec to never get to $150 or $200 a barrel you would see an influx from opec to manage that price. you have a problem that we have with enormous supply constraints since before the pandemic. going into the recovery, we were already faced with the constrained oil supply opec nations are not in a position to simply open up the
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production spigot and flood the market with oil and get oil prices down. that notion that oil prices could hit $150 is actually a potential possibility and the longer oil prices stay over $100, the bigger hit to gdp. you could see a big hit to gdp with a month of prices oil spikes are just that spikes right now, we are dealing with something that could linger. the longer it lingers, the more it will hit gdp. >> a side note, we have a split screen on you. nato leaders with president biden and olof scholz and are boris johnson just wrapping up their "family" photo as they go in to talk about putin and the
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war in ukraine and possible solutions. talk about the macro impact. i know you are a global macro investor you traveled to london you have a world view which is this war ends or comes to a halt tomorrow or soon is that an automatic bid for stocks and conversely, if this slogs on for months, it escalates and putin gets more desperate, does that hurt the stock market or is this kind of, sadly, it's own event which will not mean a lot outside of energy prices to the u.s. equity markets? >> strangely, brian, we looked at the last 20 wars since 1948 that had any global significance except for one war, the yom kippur war of 1973 which was a
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specific set of circumstances. most wars, the price impact, does not last longer than six months that's regardless of how long the under lying war occurs one problem is the market will move past this news and it can become its own event without having price or market impact. however, oil prices and interest rates. those two things matter to the stock market and the higher we can expect interest rates to go, or the higher oil prices linger, and push up inflation, that's where the rubber meets the road for the stock market that's what investors need to watch. >> when we see the double whammy, gina $6 gas where you are and higher interest rates and borrowing costs. there is a lot going with the
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consumer certainly gina sanchez, thank you very much. as you can see, that is interior of the nato headquarters in brussels, belgium. you see u.s. president biden greeting prime minister boris johnson and other world leaders on the stage they are gathering to discuss vladimir putin and ukraine this is what they call an extraordinary or another word emergency meeting. you can see u.s. advisers like security adviser jake sullivan in the background. global leaders and colleagues meeting live at nato headquarters in brussels, belgium. you heard kayla tausche reporting what may or may not occur with that meeting. we will get you more if the headlines cross as the world leaders greet each other
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many of these meeting in person for the first time in no doubt two years time a lot could come from the nato meeting as well. let's talk about that and oil. joining us to talk about it is kevin book kevin, great to have you on with your world view this morning do you think from a macro perspective that anything tangible is going to come out from the nato meeting today? >> brian, good morning the nato meeting is focused on security parameters with the economic under current it is the g7 meeting later today. topics of sanctions sound like they are on the table for discussion if not immediate action >> how does europe walk that fine line? they want to punish vladimir putin and do it economically, but they came in to the war on the edge or in full blown energy
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crisis with the price of natural gas and utility costs rising pre-invasion how does europe thread this needle by wanting to do and punish putin, but not destroy their consumer and economies in the meantime >> not coincidentally because inventories were lean in storage in europe, brian they did come into the war at high prices and their thinking cha changed. you and i spent time discussing the nord stream 2 pipeline no one talks about it because facts on the ground changed for europe olof scholz said no way will we cut off european energy. escalation on the ground in ukraine, chemical weapons or weapons of mass destruction can change minds quickly >> you believe it would take
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some furthestr escalation by pui for that that direct sanction of oil and gas by europe to occur >> two ways to get to that result if i may speak freely here, the recent data points suggest supply may not be as stable as believed russia touted as a reliable supplier whatever europe may want to do or graceful phase-down they do to transition away from russian energy -- we see one black sea terminal suspended because of storm damage it is russia which determines when it comes back and yesterday with the russian gas purchase in ruble.
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>> we talked about this in the past the importance of this pipeline. just over 1% of global supply. not exactly sure of the status of that pipeline directly. some concern if that pipeline, kevin, were to go offline for storm damage or other issue, is that $150 oil? >> it nudges us in that direction. exact price precision is undetermined demand destruction comes to the rescue after a price goes up above $150 it is a stepping stone to get there. >> we talked about the war by putin being one of energy and economics. he can hide this under the cloak of well, we're trying to repatriate russians or denazify
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nations. it looks like this may not be according to germany, the major pipelines that putin needs to get gas west come through ukraine. in your mind, kevin, is at least part of this offensive offensive because he wants to control those pipelineses through ukraine which he mays or gas pr o om pays? >> brian, a grim realization we saw that before the war which was putin did not care about nord stream 2 anymore. the implications was he was going for a takeover the ukraine and the gas routes no longer needed nord stream 2 as far as what it provides, it is leverage over ukraine and leverage over europe two things he can use as leverage if not economic support
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for russia >> you know you referenced storage earlier in the interview. storage was low coming into the invasion nobody thinks that is an accident it would put europe on the knife's edge on energy do you believe putin goes one step further with continental europe he is waging a war with ukraine and does putin go out with an economic war with continental europe >> i think he has armed the energy weapon several times. they are getting in the way of the deal that investors were betting on with 1.3 billion barrels. now going out to the black sea terminal there are gas flows in question. the story russia tells the world
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they are a reliable supplier maybe they were are reliable in a different context. if you are a buyer of russian gas, you need to calculate your risk to change that reliability. >> we are seeing dutch dtf gas convert that to u.s. dollars that is about $35 per mbtu we are paying $5 here. that is what europe is facing. kevin book, i appreciate your clear view, kevin. thank you for joining us this morning. >> thanks, brian. when we come back, we have a lot more on the nato summit in brussels we will give you the latest when they cross and thomas tull is joining us he will talk about the economy and inflation and markets and some investments that he likes right now. oil is higher. stock futures are higher as well we're glad you are up with us on
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welcome back in addition to the big nato meeting in belgium, there are other things happening outside of the nato summit let's get the latest from silvana henao. >> reporter: north korea tested a banned intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time since 2017.
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the missile fell in waters south of japan after flying for more than an hour the launch is the latest in the series of what u.s. and south korean officials have been missile tests. an airline is asking president biden to overall the protocols when it comes to flying airlines for american sending a letter signed by the heads of delta, southwest, american and u.p.s. among others calling for the end of the transportation mask mandate and pre-departure covid tests for international flights. this is on the heels of the faa decision to extend mask requirements until april. and lg energy solution will invest $1.4 billion to build a battery factory in arizona by 2024 the company is a supplier for tesla and lucid.
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it is trying to reach demand by customers. the facutory will be the first t use the batteries made by the ev makers production is slated for this year >> p mmaybe good news on americ jobs on deck, president biden on the ground in brussels nato leaders mapping up the next steps with the russian invasion of ukraine what, if anything, does the group to determine we're back after this. a jelly bean that's good for you? nature's bounty introduces
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oil up stocks down. maybe not today. crude moving higher again. stock futures higher as well. happening now, president biden and nato holding a high stakes summit. is it just tough talk or will they take on putin and thomas tull with his take on inflation and markets. it is thursday, march 24th this is "worldwide exchange. welcome or welcome back. good thursday morning.
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i'm brian sullivan it is 5:30 let's check on the money and your markets as we are halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour stock futures are higher across the board. we are seeing nasdaq up the most up about .$.75 triple digits for the dow. stocks pulling back yesterday. all three major averages declining by 1%. on wednesday, rising oil prices are a key factor you have disruption to russian and crude and caspian pipeline that adding to worries about tight global supplies. wti crude under $115 a barrel. in europe, $120 a barrel in the bond market, bonds are ticking down a touch it is well above where it was one month ago. one of the sharpest and fastest
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spikes for government bond yields ever. we will talk with jon najarian in a few minutes about that. let's get to the nato meeting in brussels. that meeting under way the ukraine president set to join virtually they will talk about increase of forces in europe and arms and humanitarian assistance for ukraine. president biden and his eu counterparts expected to discuss additional sanctions, including the possibility of direct action by europe on russian oil and gas. something europe leadershave been trying to avoid because of the reliance from russia let's bring in ian lesser. ian, good to have you on this morning. do you believe in this meeting that europe will directly sanction either russian oil or
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russian gas or both? >> i think this is very much what biden comes to europe hoping to accomplish a lot of the ground work has been laid already. i think really what they will look for, especially in the meeting with the eu leaders, to continue the very heavy cooperation on sanctions which is effective so far. it can go further. oil and gas exports are one piece of this. that is the most controversial part there are other things they could do shipping, export restrictions. all sorts of things that allies have not yet done. >> well, on that, obviously, we saw sanctions on russian oil to the u.s. there are a number of tankers still on their way to the u.s. filled with russian crude because of the 45-day window vladimir putin insisting he wants to be paid in russian rubles with the depression of the
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ruble, ian, it is financially possible that vladimir putin is doing just fine? >> he may be doing just fine right now, but it is clear that as this goes on, the russian economy will come under increasing pressure. this is already true it is clear. i would view this stunt, really about paid in rubles is an act of desperation to be honest. this is not serious. it is unlikely to happen even if countries were to start paying for energy imports in rubles, this is a short-term thing. it will not last long. he is facing increasing pressure how far it goes with the visit we will have to see. >> we have seen some high ranking leaders inside russia resign we have seen some beside sideli
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ian. most suggest the only way out of this because it is not possible for vladimir putin, who is a war criminal, and announced by the united states and others, go back to ruling even if he ends the war tomorrow is the only way out of the war or for somebody else to step up and say we are in charge of russia and vladimir putin is no longer in charge please come home in other words, is the only way out kind of a coup by russia be t internally do you see anybody pull that off? >> one thing western allies is hoping for an regime change in moscow that would help with the crisis and war in europe and the longer term relationship with russia. how is it possible to have a
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normal and economic and political relationship with the leadership which behaved in this extraordinary and ruthless way the debate of ending sanctions, regime change is one way to get there. the military coup or political coup in moscow in any case, for putin, this is regime sursurvival if he can't claim a victory out of this, the durability of the regime is limited. >> ian, what do you think his goal is? is the goal to conquer ukraine we have not seen a nation conquer another nation of this size since 1939. what exactly is the goal here? how it seems he wants to punish and destroy because he is angry it did not go the way he wanted it if that is the case, i've taught
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them a lesson. rus russian troops come home i'll still be in power how does the world react >> brian, i'm not sure putin knows what the end goal is here. it has clearly evolved the original idea, presumably is a lightning invasion to change the government in ukraine into something more congenial and he declares victory he would have crimea and donbas that russia would maintain he would come back to a territory which he would accept as a victory, but gotten into the very heavy invasion with very little success, the stakes are extremely high for him one of his objectives here has to be to stay in power if he does stay in power, he will be facing a very different west than he was facing a few
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weeks ago. i do not see any way that nato and eu and others are going to change their posture unless he goes. >> ian, the point i made with kayla tausche earlier in the program and i want to make this clear to the audience. let's not confuse nato nations with nato. as of now, nato nations like the u.s. that have put economic sanctions and help with military aid. nato as an organization has done basically nothing. >> nato has done a great deal. it has done it for nato allies within the alliance to reinforce the defense capacity for the countries in nato. in terms of helping ukraine, you are right. most assistance is going through individual nato member states. that could be ia key for the president's visit. get nato more engaged within
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limits with the security of ukraine per se. >> let's hope something concrete around ukraine comes out of this, ian and the energy sanctions could be one heck of a headline for the global economy. ian lesser, thank you. coming up, our conversation with thomas tull with the uncertainty on the markets and inflation and how he is navigating it all. as we head to break, other headlines happening now. walmart is suing bj whole sale club accusing it of stealing technology walmart and sam's club claim that bj's launched a self checkout in the mobile app that is nearly identifiecal to the s and go system. and tesla adding an suv to the fleet. this is coming months after
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he hertz announced it is adding to the fleet. and governor newsom wants to give tax money to the people he is asking for a proposal to send $400 checks to every car z owner in the state knewsom saying california has oe of the highest gas taxes in the country. we're back after this. getting the incredible iphone 13 without t-mobile, makes as much sense as playing hide-in-seek... ready or not, here i come... in the desert. uhh. really guys? t-mobile has more 5g bars in more places. and now, when you switch, you can get iphone 13 on us,
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welcome back time for big money movers. three stock stories. hb home. first quarter revenue beat forecast delivered fewer homes than expected supply chain issues and problems with hiring has delayed construction of new homes this year stock two. spotify. google will allow spotify to use the payment system in the android app as part of the pilot program. users who download will have the opportunity to use it. users complained of the payment systems and fees they collect for each transaction and stock three. nikola it started production on the electric commercial truck at the
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factory in arizona last week nikola expects the delivery for the trucks to begin in the second quarter. thomas tull is one of america's richest men. he grew up poor in new york. after biuilding and selling companies, he delivered pictures to sony and made billions. he made a few bets and a producer on the "dune" movies and someone with a finger on the pulse of the american economy. we asked how he is adjusting to the inflationary environment. >> a couple of things. at a certain point, you have to be comfortable being uncomfortable. i'm a believer in sitting down and saying what are we trying to accomplish snhere
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how can we best guard against what can go wrong and how to look ahead a couple of chess moves on the board and figure out which industries you want to invest and what you think will happen to the best of your ability and make sure your decisions are durable. >> give us your take on stocks i understand you picked up more shares >> i think toward the end of last year, wall street is clumping a bunch of companies and said the whole thing's bad the difference with figs is they are profitable and fantastic margins. you know, they have only 3% market share of roughly $12 billion domestic which is larger overseas i think health care workers in
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general is incredibly resilient category and a bit economy proof. yes, i think if the price that it went down to, i have been buying and will continue to buy and i'm a big believer in the company and fundamentals >> you talked about first principles do you go at things with a best and worst-case scenario and try to find somewhere in the middle 80% of that? there is so much uncertainty of how this may go in ukraine is there a scenario where you say now is not the time to do anything or we should be on the move because worst case means we adjust when we get there >> look, i think you have to have a blend of flexibility and
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p pl pliability you have to know what you believe. you have to make sure that view is informed and stick to that. at the same time, when things change or new factors come up, you have to be flexible to say i'll fail fast or i'll not be stubborn about this. i think many times out of chaos and uncertainty is where you have tremendous opportunities. at least that's how i try to think about it >> you referenced figs as economy proof. you have investments in recycling and road runner and insurance. is that one of the tull theories you want to look at investments. they will swing, but overall, we will recycle we will have a lot of demanded for health care. as much or more than the pandemic given the trends.
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is that a key tenet? not be down 40% if the economy swings down? >> that is certainly part of it. we ask ourselves at tull co. can we use our labs group to drive technology change? that is the premise in our deal with accusure. it has a tremendous global footprint. people need insurance. when you couple that with artificial intelligence and the algorithm approach with risk assessment and trading, with the acrisure brand, it is something that had great dependence and tremendous upside. if you can catch opportunities like that, you know, that's exciting to us >> that was part of the in
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interview with thomas tull you can catch the entire thing on cnbc.com. by the way, he is buying figs. see if he makes our buying segment tomorrow stay tuned to find out. on deck, jon najarian is here with bond etfs. something is happening with the etfs that has not happened almost ever. if you haven't already, follow our podcast with all of the major podcasting apps. oil is up. we're back after this. with billions of passengers taking millions of trips every year? you aren't about to let any cyberattacks slow you down. so you partner with ibm to build a security architecture to keep your data, network, and applications protected. now you can tackle threats so they don't bring you to a grinding halt.
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welcome back good morning let's get to the markets and your money and the story that should be talked about more. the pull back in bond etfs
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that sounds odd, but who cares you should bond etfs are suffering the drop as banks tighten policies to keep inflation in check. the selling is beyond that let's bring in jon najarian. jon, i'll throw up a one-year chart of the j & k the high yield bond etf owned and traded by many viewers around the world it hasn't had the collapse it had when covid hit, but it is in that direction i mean, the bond etfs have lost a ton of money i'm not saying it is scary, but fascinating. what in your mind is occurring here >> well, obviously people are thinking overall as you know interest rates and bonds moving up when interest rates are going up, bonds are going down
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doesn't matter if it is jnk or hyg or ushy. any of the etfs will be and should be moving down as the interest rates move up what we thought was kind of interesting, brian, is since last week, since the 14th, they've made a little bit of a turn around. some people might call it a hinge if you are looking at a chart and see it pop back up you might say that's a hinge it hasn't proved anything yet which is true. bonds are making a pretty significant move both the ten-year bond and the etfs we're talking about. significant move since last week, that hinge is still holding. people are still betting maybe when we got to nearly 240 in the ten-year, maybe we got there too
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quickly and we will see easing in the short term, brian sdpbrian. >> it has been trillions of dollars globally out of the bond market much of it, jon, doesn't look like it goes into the stock market yet i assume people are starting to hoard cash oil and equity markets are looking to be tied at the hip. do you have a macro view on the equity market? there is so much uncertainty out there right now. >> sure. one thing i'm not uncertain about and i suspect you as well and many viewers is if we me cust mercifully got an end to the war. if we got sanctions coming off soon, brian, whether it is the nutrients for fertilizers or
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food, the bread basket in ukraine and russia or the energy and then the black sea terminal that got hit by bad weather andl of oil not on the market i'm concerned those will be a drag for a while >> they are saying that terminal could be out for six neweeks. kevin book said it could be a putin ploy doesn't matter oil at $115. are people getting more bearish on the option side or bullish? >> no. they're actually wondering if the 200-day moving average holds, brian, for more than 24 hours. people are not necessarily getting bulled up, but lightning
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up on the put trades across the board. iwm. qqq. spydr. it means they are lightening up if we hold the 200 day. >> jon najarian, thank you the aggregate bond index is down over two years bonds gotten obliterated liz ann sonders tweet right there. thank you, jon that does it for us. stock futures are up oil is flat. still near $115. the nato meeting going in brussels right now there is a lot to do all day long we will see you tomorrow with the insider buying segment that is it for us. "squawk box" is next have a great day
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good morning president biden is in brussels for an emergency summit. nato secretary-general telling cnbc that vladimir putin has made a big mistake we'll take you there live. meanwhile, russian stocks reopened for trading overnight we'll show you how they did in the early morning hours. google is testing a change to the way it charges app store fees it is giving spotify a big boost. it is thursday, march 24th what happened to march "squawk box" begins right now.

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