bonds are the story. 10-year yield above 2.5% we will see if the market can stomach this >> the worst start to the year for t for treasuries in history. that will do it for us tech check starts now. ♪ >> good friday morning welcome to "tech check." today, a landmark new law in europe and what it means for your iphone, why big tech is sweating over this regulation. sink your teeth into a mango

it's all about chips and ahead of the oscars. >> the fed with an agreement on the eu digital market act. it will likely force apple's i messaging and meta's app to perform between the two. it is said tech companies should have seen this coming a decade ago. we said in the prior intro, that big tech was sweating this are they >> i think so. i think they are going to do what they can to walk back certain provisions as the language gets negotiated between now and october. there is a furious lobbying effort under way i think they will come up with solutions and try to fit them into loopholes that's pretty normal but at the end of the road it is

being said these markets need to be more comparable the biggest market is increased funds, breakups and the like if they don't comply. that's the real focus. i think the tech companiesneed to sweat that because they are going to run into remedies with real team. apple is not in compliance with antitrust. they are paying the euros each week because that was easy than being in compliance. >> there was a thought maybe this was a revenue generator for the eu, but there has been talk of moving from fines to remedies over time and there would be a mind melt between eu policy and u u.s. policy. >> they have been talking on

both sides of the atlantic a lot. if you take a step back historically, eu antitrust policy and u.s. anti-trust policy are an interesting test it looks like pre'80s. more importantly, these companies can't run ten different business models around the world. they are going to have to find one that works for the strictest regulatory environment they are in i think u.s. regulatory drafters can draw that up >> i'm not convinced it's easy to say things like europe is going to say they have to but it's hard to say how that's going to work. how do you make i message and whatsapp interact? i don't think you can practically do it. couldn't people argue that these things are interoperable by your

mobile phone number anyway eu wants to mandate which color my messages have to be on the phone? no green, it has to be blue. >> if they could regulate color, i think they would that makes them the eu but i think the question is what do they mean by interopablity. the carriers have been slow to adopt the next era of messaging. the tech companies have no intention of doing this because messaging is locked into their platforms. how it gets implemented, i think we will hear a lot of very smart people with a lot of resources say things are too hard. i don't buy that things are too hard for the smartest people

>> they can find a way to make those bubbles the same color once again european regulators are leading the way while washington just talks, sits on its hands. the consequences are yonds what we previously called speeding tickets. there are real consequences, were they get litigated. does this light the fire for washington to do more? will there be a shift to europe in a more substantial way for the companies than the past? >> yeah. the antitrust bills we have seen proposed are moving slowly along. one interesting dynamic is the united states government in some ways was opposed to the markets act in europe saying we are going to regulate our companies, not you. and they got left behind so now there is a tries figure out the american response.

the pressure will increase here and will in october. >> we talk about regulation as if the world hadn't changed a month ago with ukraine and thrown the economy is there any way u.s. policy is adjusted by the fact we need our giants now more than ever? >> i think that is a real consideration, globalization over conversation has been ramped up by the war in ukraine by hustle postures including china. services want to protect things like the united states first amendment, that's a huge tool. are those companies going to be used as those tools i think remains an open question at&t and verizon have traditionally been part of that conversation

facebook and twitter, what have you, have not. so i think it's how much they want to be embedded in american foreign policy i am not sure about that yet >> that's a difficult choice >> really good conversation. there is a lot more come on that front see you soon >> i am weary of using leadership when it comes to regulation let's stick with apple also a possible hardware subscription service what that could mean for the bottom line. a hardware subscription service isn't new. there have been installment plans on apple on hardy wware fa

long time. so what is this about? is it about people not using the apple card what do you think? >> absolutely. thanks for having me that's precisely the point when you look at apple, the most important thing from a hardware perspective is to ensure that they keep very stable and growing install base they want to keep it upgrading at a certain rate. you already have about a billion iphones. the intent is to make the upgrade more reliable, make it more frequent. you are right, they had the upgrade program in the u.s but they use carrier installment plans. they are trying to move from

carriers this is still not true we don't have people buying on an installment basis on a global basis. that has been an issue over the last decade. people suspect it came in through the force of the pandemic at this point in time that's the key focus. that would be appealing from an apple perspective where you can make sure people upgreat frequently >> how do they do it my issue is the carrier programs have the wireless right bill to deal with to leverage where you are paying for that anyway in what ways are you paying for that anyway. does apple have to incorporate some technology services, cloud services that people are paying for from another provider into this hardware subscription service in order for it to make

sense? >> i think apple will tread this in a fine way. carrier is an important distribution partner for apple apple is going to make sure that the carriers still have access to upgrading with customers and leveraging the carrier subsidies which are ultimately very important to apple as well so areas where you don't have those i think those are the areas you may see an upgrade plan kick in and they may bundle this with a host of other things as well whether that would be more globally remains to be seen. the important part from an apple perspective is that ultimately it's not just hardware, but everything that can be offered will be offered. they want people to stay in that ecosystem and stay stronger. you could make the same

argument, for ipads, watches, everything they sell that you want to upgrade to the latest at some frequency apple has a report where you talk about the base for these replacement cycles i think they have a good view into that installment base the more frequently you can get people to do this. more broadly, the portfolio of time helps >> even what we have taukds about in the past has been most popular in places like europe and the u.s. what does that mean internationally where you see lower cost phones gaining more market share >> it's about the initial purchase price you have seen the willingness in

the u.s. from a consumer standpoint to move up in terms of the available skews the pro and pro maxs are more popular than three or four generators go. phones were about 12 or 1400 phones that is coming because people look at it am tore ooiz am torized over a three or four-year period finally, are you expecting big surprises on capital return basis or balance sheet moves in the spring quarter >> this is traditionally the time when apple does reup its buyback program which has been very effective it's a high quality problem to have when you generate 70 or 80

billion and your net cap barely goes down. you should be expecting a reup of that program in the 70 billion range. i think that will continue in the foreseeable future given what apple is. >> thank you coming up, good-bye fang and hello mango. we are just getting started. trading isn't just a hobby. it's your future. so you don't lose sight of the big picture, even when you're focused on what's happening

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there is low investor conviction in the space, but high strategic value in the m.a.n.g.o., a new acronym. these are the seven stocks best positioned to recover from the global shortage. the semiconductor stocks are down double-digits since the start of the year. another acronym. i don't know if this will stick, but, john, there is no i in m.a.n.g.o. >> we are not allowed to trade individual stocks. some of these stocks i think -- and i understand what they are saying, they like all of these

semiconductor stocks for different reasons, but they have different thesees. a lot of these have two or three months of neon stored up this is good for china, carl, because they are another producer of neon, producing around 30% the supply out of russia and china is not what it used to be. >> half of the supply comes out of there micron said they are okay for now, but something we will be watching they are saying inflows in etfss are increasing anna, this is fascinating.

this fits are the notion there will be more chips in virtually everything we use. >> yes, absolutely i usually say if you want to know what investors sentiment is, look at etfs flow, look where investors put their money. it is a very good proxy showing where investors believe the growth will be semis are a good indication of that in 2019 semis were only 3.2% of tech industry. if you move up to the pandemic epidemic, semiexposure capture 21%. people have been working from home and making more and more

use of this technology and there is a distinction between a hardware and software. there is no going back to that these will continue to grow and we are bullish about that despite the recent news about the sector >> do you think it's odd to see these kind of flows where the ten-year hits 2.5? >> i don't think it's unusual. i get this question all of the time if you connect the dots, borrowing costs are higher, companies will stop growing. however, this may be true for some segments, but not really true for stech companies in general. they show stronger cash flow they will continue to grow and reinvest in the business

don't trust me just because i say that we have watched this move before let's look back at what happened during the last cycle of fed rate hiking. i am talking between december, 2015 and july 2019 qqq outperformed the s&p by 19%. if you look at our fund, the s&p 500 technology, that outperformed the s&p 500 by 46%. 46%. i don't want this to be lost in translation. that's the story >> that's the story. >> i do believe that companies will continue to grow despite being in an interest rate hike environment. >> the semiconductor industry and stocks are in a very different place than they were a generation ago used to be intel was the big

player market cap wise now it's nvidia. and there are cloud providers being a big presence in this market and a question of how a lot of these chip players are going to respond to customization whether on the found ri size or design side how should investors think about those new dynamics >> they -- i would tell investors that the best advice is always try to diversify your portfolio. with that you can go from there to the big means you can go to nasdaq or

securities, we have a next generation of qqq so to speak. there are other etfs that provide exposure to different segments of the market you can be overweight, but try to diversify with the market and have plenty of options >> to what degree to investors need to keep their eye on kmod tirs -- commodities we were talking about neon and how complexities are affecting them >> sure. the good news is there is exposure through commodities through space. we have seen that materialize in commodities. they are being used as a hedging

tool geopolitical will lead to diversification of flows and commodities. we have seen that, seen incredibly healthy flows in our dba. we have seen very healthy flows in other areas a hefty portfolio given the current market conditions. >> fascinating how these new ideas get inn innings -- incorporated into different etfs thank you. >> thank you for having me the nasdaq is up double-digits in the last ten days names you might have missed out on (vo) right now, the big switch is happening across the country. small businesses are fed up with big bills and 5g maps that are mostly gaps— they're switching to t-mobile for business

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welcome back to "tech check. >> julia is live from the red carpet ahead of the weekend. we will have more on that later. markets are down nasdaq is off more than 1% after yesterday's strong rally the top gaugers i -- gainers ths week but first -- >> home sales slowing down 4%. analysts had predicted a rise. mortgage rates continue to rise. another pro diediction that the federal rates will increase rates to a total of 275 basis points this year bank american said it expects

rate hikes at the june and july meeting. and huntsman shares plummet after star board fails to put any of its candidates on the board. and pot stocks surge as house plans cannabis legalization vote. this will be the second attempt to enact the marijuana investment and expungment act. a few key names have seen rebounds off lows in march dom joins us with a few of those names. >> some you may not have missed because they are drivers in the nasdaq but if you look at the nasdaq 100 as measured by the qqq trust, it has seen a rise off

the lows over the last couple weeks. up by roughly 12%. what that does is put the overall nasdaq 100 12 or 13% below the record highs we have seen over the last year. with regard to what is driving the action, best performers in the last week or so helping propel things are megacap names in tesla and intel intel is up 8% and splunk is up about 9% it's not just those names. the biggest company of them all is the one that's one to watch here apple, not so under the radar, but that stock is down fra fractionally today, but people have continued to buy during the

dip. whether that continues remains to be seen three of the names that have not garnered attention are tied to either insider or related insider buying trends. we are looking at docusign, bumble and gamestop. docusign is up 40% from the lows we have seen bumble is up roughly 80% during that same time span and gamestop has doubled in the last 10 trading days much of this is tied to insider buying activity or related to continue cider buying activity as well. one other one to watch, the ark innovation has been beleaguered, but the bounce here has been roughly 24% so as we talk about the moves we have seen, many of

the growth names that took the biggest beatings are ones people have tried to find some deep value in carl, back to you. >> we definitely lost some ground this morning. uber shares are more than 40% off the high our guest says disruptions are ahead.

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if you are looking for ideas within tech, our next guest is here with three ideas on why he's bullish on these names. let's tackle the first which you say is uber. we have yellow taxis, continued losses, is it a company disrupting or settling into its status as maybe a taxi and delivery company >> good question good to see y'all. the big opportunity in uber is this company went public too early. the stock has underperformed the s&p 500 by 90 percentage points since its ipo. when the company first went public they were bleeding cash the competitive environment was completely unsettled

the eats business faced a lot of competition. fast forward to today. they have really rationalized the portfolio. they have divested the business where they are not share leaders and now 90% of their business is where they are number one. the eats business has turned the corner and is profitable the business structure overall -- >> jason, hold on a second you said this was a company that went public too early. it was one of the oldest startups when it went public it raised billions and billions in private dollars you say eats is profitable, but it's not maybe on an ebidas basis, but barely so. >> they are not going to lose money this year. we are looking about $700 million in adjusted ebidas i think their targets in

adjusted ebidas will prove conservative that represents 3% adjusted ebidas margin on bookings. this business went public too early from the standpoint of what did a competitive environment look like. it was unsettled now they are gaining in the u.s. across their rides and eats business we haven't fully recovered post pandemic at the end of the day this is an asset-like business that operates number one in some markets and duopoly in other markets. they have a right to regain the mantle of one of the true tech leaders. >> interesting drivers are expensive though, and so is gasoline one thing we haven't mentioned

is the gasoline. should we be more interested in the rides business or eats business >> capital is drying up which is good for them. this is a positive inflection point in their business. another thing that's super important about uber is they have both the rides and eats business and can marry the two together and drive loyalty customers are 16% of their users but represent 40% of their bookings they are rolling out uber one. they already have subscribers although there hasn't been much promotional activity around it this is an ability to consolidate share. if there is anything we have learned from the financials of these companies, this is not a business that can sustain many players. everyone is on board within the

industry, all players that we need to start making money when you think about inflection points, that's what's happening in the ride share and meal delivery business. >> jason, here is the problem for me i am not sure if uber went public too early or its tail chasing feces was just bound to hit a wall is this a strategy to lower prices wasn't the whole tail chasing th thesis supposed to be -- what has shifted that adding taxis is now disruptive >> great question. i don't think necessarily they

were going to disrupt on price and that was the long-term strategy the long-term strategy was about generating new use cases if you look at the data in new york, uber and lyft are 45% larger than the taxi business. this is true in a lot of markets. they are enabling new use case not necessarily disrupting the status quo i think bringing taxis on to their platform is not going to move the needle that much, but it's important in creating a super app for transportation pricing will not be that different between taxis and uber x. global taxi is not a huge part of that, but just important to

bringing transportation options onto the app >> i don't know if that makes it a disrupter, jason a lot of that was status quo we didn't even get to your other forecasts we will have you back again. jason, thanks for being with us. amazon shares up more than 6% this month, a bit flat, down slightly today still, more than 10% off their high why one tech analyst thinks amazon's stock is underappreciated ♪ ♪ can a company make the planet a better place? what if it's a company of people working beside friends and neighbors? pursuing 100% renewable energy in our operations. aiming to protect, manage or restore millions of acres of land. and offering you more sustainably sourced products

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markets shrugged off each incremental law. an argument from why it does steve, earlier in the show i have said i am skeptical for the past decade we have been saying here is the big one coming regulation wise the most effective regulator in my mind is tim cook. there has been more impact on

the ecosystem than anything any government has done. am i off base? >> that is true. we have seen it in advertising and hitting it at the market cap.eu want to regulate tim cook's apple big tech companies are lobbying hard they called it intense lobbying efforts to do whatever they can to water it down and they have a lot of tools in the tool belt to do this, too there are several months to do it even if they are a gate keeper even though it goes into effect in october, it takes six more months before they can apply these and i am told another six months to enforce it. you talk about fines, slap on the wrist fines.

to you and me it sounds like a hefty price to pay now they are going to fine them up to 10% of their revenue if they are a repeat offender, it can go up to 20% of revenue >> is something shifting here? ukraine underlying it. tech giants moving to suspend their operations there regulators here in the u.s. seem to have their eye more on areas like crypto. >> but you have to realize a lot of these rules are being thrown around in our own congress in the united states. as was said earlier in the show, eu was ahead of it and did it without permission, so they are regulating the american companies before the u.s. can do it themselves. these changes are so big and broad that once they go into

effect, they will likely have to make it worldwide. think back to three or four years ago. those had to be made worldwide rather than some splinter net. >> we will see how this gets ironed out over time we did mention neo yesterday deliveries fell short so shares are now down more than a third since january. wl bk tweilbeacinwo are joing the big switch. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ultimate business plan for the lowest price ever. plus choose from the latest 5g smartphones. get more 5g bars in more places- switch to t-mobile for business today.

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some startup news this morning. starting its own valuation yesterday we had news that they were expanding 15-minute delivery just hours after that cross the company said it's cutting its valuation down almost in half down $34 billion two points, one, the worry for investors. instacart attracts to retain talent and it's hurting morale they're clearly being impacted by the pain in public markets. doordash is down 25% peak to trough bottom line, this is the company that missed the ipo window as we said before and there is a disconnect between the valuation it uses for investors and the one that it is using for employees. lastly, guys, we did ask the ceo this week directly on the record

directly how a mark down was affecting the company and she did not say this was happening and it's not a great sign when a company and a ceo tries to distract from the core issues and doesn't answer a question honestly guys, we talked a lot about this missing the ipo window and this is an aged unicorn that has seen its value rise in the private markets and had a ceo transition right at the time some of the other gig economies were going public and getting good valuations and investors that understood their story instacart did not do that. >> yeah. they might be in even more pain if they had gone public in that window and were publicly down from there it might be more than 38%, but yeah it's a shame you don't want to come from facebook which rightly or wrongly has been under reputational scrutiny and then make the public question whether you can be trusted by not being up front carl, this seems to be a case

where people are wanting to reprice and nothing gets employees excited like growth. that's twhat it comes down to is valuation ask the growth that values in the end. >> both of your points about how hard it is to time exactly right when it's time to access the capital markets in uber's case and sternly instacart's tough lessons in there meantime, the streaming wars at the oscars apple, netflix and more are going to face off. we will talk about it live from the red carpet with julia in a minute there you have it. your all new personalized weight loss program from ww. it's easy. you take a short quiz, tell us your goals, how you're feeling and what you love to eat and we create a science backed plan that's designed just for you. at ww, we help you build healthy habits, so you can eat better, think better and feel better. getting started has never been easier.

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one more thing today, a streaming service could win best picture at the oscars for the first time on sunday netflix, apple and more all facing off to win that coveted award. our julia boorstin joins us with more live from the red carpet in hollywood. we cannot wait for sunday, j.b. >> a classic covered red carpet, carl, as they get ready for the oscars to return here to the dolby theater. this is a moment for the academy and movie stars to come out and

promote movie going at a time when streaming is increasingly challenging. netflix dominates this year's nominations with 27 to disney's 24 and warner brothers' 16 while younger streamers are also on the rise, apple has six oscar nominations. it's not that apple is in the lead with the nominations, sunday's show will be competing with netflix's "bridgerton." the second season starts today netflix, apple and amazon are challenging on what used to be their home turf. in the past year, the growing availability of theatrical films either simultaneously at home or after a short window in theaters has hurt theatrical ticket sales. this grew more than $600 million. that's down from 750 million in

2020 and 1.2 billion in 2019 of course, those 2021 nominations were pretty much a wash this is all part of a broader decline in the number of movie tickets sold, a decline that sold in 2002 with the dramatic dip in 2020 due to the pandemic. it's not just the studios in the hope of a continued box offers rebound here the theater chains are counting on the backlog of big budget films hitting theaters to draw office back to seats this year's box offers will be down somewhere between 20% and 35% from 2019 levels so all of the movie stars on stage here on sunday night will be trying to remind people just how much they missed going out to the movies. carl >> jealous of your shot today, julia. good stuff julia boorstin ahead of the oscars this weekend. speaking of streaming and the battle for content, showtime's super pumped, the battle for uber explores the meteoric rise

and fall we got to sit down with ben schachter for our digital series "binge" and we asked why the corporate drama is so hot in hollywood right now. >> i wonder as a showrunner how you view the corporate drama right now because succession's a thing, steve jobs, theranos has made its way into the narrative thread what is it about the corporation that lends itself to such great drama. >> honestly, what we really love about it is they feel like modern-day kings they feel like the monarchies in a shakespearean play >> this city has been taken! >> they have the same kind of power and ego and make these incredible moves in their companies. without naming names, a lot of this stuff that happens in the big corporations with the personal lieves and scandals is the most fun stuff to write about.

>> if you are super pumped for more join us on twitter or youtube for a livestream of our full interview at 12:45 eastern time after the show and the full thing, thinof course, on cnbc.cm they say art imitates life and corporate dram as are making their way across the media spectrum right now >> it almost makes the days of the steve jobs biopics and social network quaint. what would the steve jobs tv series look like >> i don't know, with the hindsight now it would be interesting. carl, they are so much fun to watch especially here from silicon valley watching these stories play out in real life and seeing them on the screen, looking forward to your interview >> interesting the one other point she made is as budgets are maybe getting more disciplined in terms of streaming in the years to come, you might see show runners who promoted maybe prematurely start

to lose their spot and you'll be left with the true kings of showrunning in the years to come, but we'll see. certainly the need for content is not going anywhere. as for next week, guys, it will be a boat load of data from the jobs number on friday, to confidence and auto sales. so enjoy the weekend and refrt up let's get to the half. >> welcome to the halftime report i'm scott wapner front and center tech on a tear a stunning burst from the bottom and the big question now, could new highs be next? we'll ask the committee today. joining me for the hour this friday, bryn talkington, sarat sethi, and jon najarian. the ten-year yields pushing 250. the dow is off by a little as is the s&p 500, but really, we are focused on technology, pete and this incredible run in less than two weeks the nasd