it's been trying it since early february this could be it we'll see. >> who is fubo that you, pete >> yeah. we had some call buying in there. the stock has been beaten down and when i see a little bit of that elevation of the call buying, it makes me think i'm going to jump on that as well. i'm in the calls there >> good stuff. good to see everybody. i'll see you again in overtime i'll send it to "the exchange" i think i know what they'll talk about. >> hi, everybody one basis point. one basis point ahead on "the exchachk". how aggressive is the fed going to get we'll hear from someone who expects maybe two or three rate hikes but phil dudley says the fed has made a recession inev inevitable is he right? i see the green on the wall over there they're higher today they're up for the fourth straight day it helps a little bit. we have growing hopes for a cease fire in. we'll get the latest

europe is looking to secure energy supplies from anyone other than russia these days the u.s. stepping in with billions of meters of cubic meters of natural gas, and we have a list of u.s. companies that could benefit first, let's start with today's markets. get you the key data points to watch. i'll start with the markets overall the dow up 108 points. about a third of one percent here the s&p up 22. it's three points shy of 4600. that's a level we haven't closed above since january. impressive rebound if we get there. the nasdaq composite up 1 %. it is leading the way. the energy complex in the red again today. on cease fire hopes to some extent off session lows but still down under 103 a barrel we were below 100 in earlier trading. the meme stocks have beenflyin this week. game stock, amc halted for volatility we see them in the red they've had huge moves game stop up 18% since monday,

yesterday. amc up nearly 50%. the travel stocks seeing a nice balance with hotels, cruises and airlines higher. robin hood soaring after extending trading hours for certain users. hood up 26%. they're over $16 a share okay get to the yield curves. hugely in focus right now. the twos, tens yield curve is about to invert. we are 1.5 basis points away here's your 20-year history so you can have a quick look at how it's been a predictor of recessions in the past let's go back to 2006 around the january, february timeframe is when we down there we can't go that much below zero early in 20 06 is when it inverted december of 2007 is when the recession set in it ended in the middle of 2009 you can see the inversion happen we uninverted a couple months. went back into the inversion sure enough, the recession

happened moving throughout the expansion, the yield curve, the twos, tens, did invert again right here in 2019 of course, we all know what was coming right around the corner, even more impressive given that no one foresaw the pandemic you can see why the street takes this seriously it sounds chilling let's compare this chart which you'll see looks almost exactly like the chart of the three-month ten-year yield kurveg r curve you can see almost the exact same thing happening three-month, ten-year, using a proxy for the current fed funds rate inverted in 2006 at almost the same time. told us about the recession coming 2019, it inverted right there. told us the pandemic downturn was coming but look at the difference today. this spread, 1.8 points. it's near a historic high. this is the highest level we've seen here going back to the expansion. we're nowhere close to inverting. this debate, this spread, is unusual.

the bulls will look at this and say this still signals a strong economy. the bears are looking at the twos, tens, which i think we're going to hear a lot more about this afternoon if it inverts does it mean the fed's application of the frillwork left it behind the curve in controlling inflation and a hard landing is now virtually inevitable joining me to talk about all this is the vice chair at evercore isi we're thrilled of you here what are you taking in terms of signals from the behavior of the yield curves >> the behavior of the yield curves, plural, certainly deserve close intention from fed policy makers and investors. and i'm certainly not going to ignore any of these signals. but i will tell you that here's another yield curve that i look at the real yield curve if you compare the real wo-yea with the real ten-year, the real two-year yield is still way

below the real ten-year yield. and that's giving me a bit more confidence that a recession is not right around the corner. >> so that's you think the most important message for investors here >> i think the larger message is that we want to look at multiple different versions of the yield curve. don't get fix sated on one single metric like the twos, tens look at the three month to the ten. you're right for that, telling a different story. look at the real twos to tens against the nominal twos to tens you create a picture, a better picture by looking at all these indicators they are, some of them, starting to flash a warning sign. when you look across the board at this range of metrics, i would say there is overall, not a single of imminent reregistration risk here >> i think we should clarify there's two different camps about recession.

there's the camp who thinks the economy is weak now. the tightening is a mistake and that's how we're going to get into a recessionand call it in the days of the rosenberg camp there's also the camp, dudley's warnings and others who say the fed is so far behind the curve, they're going to have to tighten so much in the future, that that will guarantee a recession one dovish, one hawkish approach to the recession risk right now. >> 100%. the timeline is i think quite different with those two stories. right? in the rosenberg type story, the economy must i think roll over this year. right? as the fed to start to kick in the hikes in the qt. in the dudley type story, there are nuances between different versions of this story i think if i understand it right, the recession risk is more next year when the fed gets to say 3% of fed funds, finds that's not enough, has to keep going, maybe even gets as far as 4 or something like that, and

then every single yield curve inv inverts. the economy slows brutally, and we get a full recession. >> the bad news about the rosenberg camp is that they would say the fed needs to back off. the good news about the summers dudley, that camp, there's an implication they can still save us from a recession if they're aggressive enough right now. and that brirngs us to the call for hikes. three half point hikes, could it keep up to the neutral rate to keep us from the problem next year from a downturn >> i still think that it is plausible we could pull off a softish landing, but it's going to require the fed to be very nimble, and to thread what is -- a pretty tight needle here so what's our call on the fed? three key ideas here summed up in the phrase, up hard, then down again. so what does this mean

first, we think the fed is embracing the idea of more of front loaded level shift back toward a neutral rate this year delivered via several 50s. exactly how many hard to pin down our base case is two or three, probably with the first 50 coming in may. so with two or three 50s and quarter points at the rest of the meetings you're looking at a funds rate of 2.5 at the end of the year the fed would view that as neutral. second leg, we see the fed pushing on into the low mid threes in the first half of next year try to overhaul that core inflation rate get real rates positive and over time apply a little bit restrain but then third leg to our call, we think that the market and the macro data will tell the fed, the economy can't really handle a three and a half type fed funds rate for any exthe ended period of time we think we will get a proper

recession scare, and if the fed is quick enough, they will then pull off what they did in 2018 and 2019 they will cut. they will cut rates three times in the base case in early '24, maybe late '23, come down to a funds rate in the 2.25 and 2 .5 range. that's something the economy we think can sustain and potentially extend the business cycle. so we can see the possibility of achieving a soft landing here. but it's going to be hard to get that exactly right >> and, again, with the -- 9,000 away from inversion right now. we're less than a basis point. what would you make of the level of the ten-year yield just broadly speaking? maybe we can show it again. it's below the fed funds rates you're talking about is the market already pricing in the scenario you described >> so i guess the market -- i think the market pricing is sympathetic, shall we say, to the sort of contours of the view we set out up and then down again the point is it does not have to

be associated with a recession if you get the timing right, you can actually avoid the recession. but i would add to that that you've got to be careful, because you have to stay tight long enough to start to bring the inflation down in a more definitive way, but not so long that you get the recession so the landing zone here for the soft landing i think is still there. but it's narrowed, and, of course, it's narrowed because of the complexity of the shops hitting us now including, of course, this big war shock as well as all the difficulties that already existed they're pulling off a soft landing out of the pandemic. >> it's like elon musk trying to land the boosters in a floating barge in the middle of the ocean. >> yes >> thanks for your time. it's great to have you >> any time, take care $47 billion in seven-year notes went up for auction. let's see what signals we can glean from this one and check in with rick santelli at the cme. rick >> you're not going to glean a

lot of signals from this one it's an asterisk auction it priced a whisker under 2 .5 2.499. 47 billion seven years higher yield, lower price. that's never good. that's one of the biggest demerits for this auction. but there was certain aspects of it that were spectacular now, the bid to cover at 2 .44, that was the best since august of 20. 60.9 in indirects krufly average. the direct bidder is at 28.6 i have a 15-year data base i couldn't find anything near that very strong. and dealers only took 10.5%. that's the smallest amount they've taken since september of '17. the internals were pretty good the pricing was ugly but the range in the one issued market was very big. hence, the asterisk. now as far as the yield curves, everybody needs to take a deep

breath and i'll tell you why. one basis point separates twos to tens. it can't be any other way. the twos and the coupon curve, coupon curve, twos, threes, fives, sevens, tens, they're building in fed basing the stacking of terms. the tbo auction keeps up with the market the only time i would use the ten-year rate as an indication with respect to the rest of the curve for an inversion that would cause a recession is in a bull-spreading market, meaning prices are going up. yield is going down. so twos to tens and tens in particular are a lower yield in a bear market, where prices go down and yields go up, the inversion is mostly telling you that the three-month to two-year is looking at what is going on with the fed being late to the party. okay in other words, three months to twos is about 180 something

basis points three months of tens is probably around 180 basis points and as we go through time, if the fed delivers on what the market and the coupons built in, every week those rates will go up and if we're really in a recession mood, the ten-year yields at some point will start to go down relative to the three-month rate we are nowhere near that scenario yet people can have any opinions they want. i personally just don't see a recession in the cards this year and i don't see the yield curve changing that. >> great points, rick. we appreciate it we will see you a lot more over the next hour or two as we nevertheless watch the twos, tens and see if it dips below zero a programming note, we have the philly fed president joining us on "power lunch" next hour we'll ask about rate hikes and the yield curve and inflation and much more. that's around 2:40 p.m my next guest remains bullish on stocks for the rest

of the year, warning the market many times sends -- he has names he thinks are well positioned. let's welcome in the chief equity strategist at mai capital management chris, like rick and many others, you're not necessarily -- your hair is not on fire over the twos, tens inversion we're about to see >> i'm kind of tired of hearing about the yield curves and it remind me of the word transitory this year. this year it's yield curves. we look at the three-month ten-year, it's still as you pointed out still steeply sloped so we don't see arecession in the cards. certainly not this year. >> what makes you bullish on stocks there are still plenty of head winds to contend this. >> sure. i like to do this mejds exercise let's say you went on vacation three months ago and just came back and found out the ten-year had gone up 100 basis points in the fastest rise in history to start the year russia invaded ukraine, and that oil spiked up 45%.

you'd probably be somewhat surprised that the s&p is only down about 4%. and so i think the market has actually shown a lot of resiliency in an otherwise really turbulent time. we don't see another 100 basis points on the ten-year we think going forward things will actually be a little better than they were for the first quarter, and we think it's a great time to buy stocks >> you like the stocks like google and amazon. i think people can understand that cash flow show me the money to quote jerry mcguire. you also like dominos and home depot. why are some of the pandemic names regaining their traction why are the meme stocks flying again? and why do the names to you look attractive here? >> sure. so you really have to separate the baby from the bath water when you're talking about what i call covid hangover stocks and home depot and dominos in one hand where they had such terrific growth a year ago, a year and a half ago and now

they're finding it tough to compare against those periods. these are terrific long-term companies. so that's the baby and the bath water may be some of the meme stocks, some of the other kind of what i would call flash in the pan pandemic stocks, but for the pandemic, they really wouldn't have been great companies. so we really like home depot and dominos. they're trading below the average valuation in a market that's trading considerably above its average valuation. and they're long-term terrific companies. they buy back stock, and it's a jerry mcguire market she moe the money, and they can show you the cash flow >> final word, what do you say to those who say but consumer sentiment. the fed is going to screw it up. they're behind the curve they're worried about recession lurking around the corner, even if it's in 2023? >> sure. we're going to climb a wall of worry and you mentioned a lot of them but boy, in a month we'll be in the middle of earning season i think it will be an impressive

earnings season, especially, and this is really vital, that sentiment is an expectations are so low so i would take advantage of that i'd pick your bets for the long term and make them here. >> all right chris, great to have you today thank you for your time. >> thanks, kelly >> we appreciate it. coming up, the average rate in the 30-year fixed mortgage up next new numbers on home prices that might tell us what to expect for housing in the months homi -- months ahead plus which energy stocks are poised to benefit? we'll get top picks with will go prices up more than 20% this month. we're back in a moment exploring the heart of historic europe with viking, you'll get closer to iconic landmarks, to local life and legendary treasures

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home prices even hotter than expected in january after a record climb last year we have the latest diana? >> kelly, after cooling off for four straight months home prices reaccelerated in january nationally prices rose 19.2% year over year up from 18.9% from december. and that's on the much-watched s&p chiller index. phoenix, tampa and miami saw the biggest gains, around 30%. and 16 of the 20 cities on the index reported higher annual

price increases in january than in december. washington d.c., minneapolis, and chicago, saw the smallest but they were all still up double digits from a year ago. while the index is a three-month running average, mortgage rates began to climb in january. the average rate on the 30-year fix ended 2021 at 3.25%. it's now flirting with 5%. we went to an open house a few days ago for a dallas condominium where the competition continues. lauren almost bought a home two years ago, but she decided to wait >> now i just kind of having buyer's regret of notgetting into it then, seeing how much the market has gone up have had to adjust my budget a lot. >> while some are adjusting their budgets, others are no longer qualifying for a mortgage at the higher rates. the realtor at the open house told us she's seeing more cash offers in the market than ever

before >> it's crazy out there. thank you very much. when it comes to housing, how and when the fed unwinds the balance sheet could have a huge impact that's because the fed is currently sitting on 2 $.7 trillion of mortgage-backed security it's the largest holder of the assets and selling according to my next guest could create huge dislocations that could put more upward pressure on mortgage rates. walt, it's great to see you. would you say it's gone from being a remote possibility to a bigger one lately that the fed could try to sell these assets >> well, thanks for having me. certainly it's something that's been talked about a lot more here lately. it's something that we never considered really could even happen, but certainly some of the fed governors have started talking about it i think this very conversation really has to do with the tension that we have with monetary policy between theory and practice the fed obviously wants to get inflation under control.

they've talked about the fact that in the long-term, they don't want to be a long holding of mortgage-backed security. then there's a matter of timing. it occurred throughout the morning. the yield curve potentially is about ready to invert. so i think this tension between practice and theory is what we're talking about. >> basically the concern is who would be buy them. if the fed holds 2 $.6 trillion, the rest of the banks hold less than 3 trillion. you throw in a couple hundred billion for the asset managers who is going to buy them >> that's the point. there isn't a buyer type large enough to take on this paper it's one thing for the fed to buy three to $5 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities a day this it's much more difficult to sell them in addition to the numbers you quoted, right now i looked at the debt here recently all dealers. all primary dealers that hold mortgage-backed securities only own 50 billion right now

if the fed put out bonds for the dealers to bid, it would quickly overwhelm what their balance sheets have. one would anticipate some sort of auction process, and then, of course, we think back to 2010, 2012, when they sold assets back then but that was only 60 billion we're talking 2.6 to 2.7 trillion it's a very large piece for the market >> do they have to sell? could they sit on this and go at some point everyone pays the mortgage off and these are run off on their own >> we think that's what's going to happen. if you look at how pay downs are happening right now. a couple months ago we were paying off at 20 % a year. now we're at a rate of about 10% to 15% a year. if you look at that and take that out into the future, the average life, then, of what they own is about seven years so you could see a much smaller portfolio over seven years and, again, it's just more of a

problematic thing. yes, they'd like to have fewer mortgages, but it's just very difficult. and the last point i'll make is the point that diana made. that's the fact that the market has done the work for the fed, the fed's own work if you look at mortgage rates, they were below 3% a few months ago. now they're almost 5%. so monetary policy works with long legs. so perhaps the fed now is willing to let that happen and see what happens to the housing market going forward >> sure, we're in the early innings of this. what's been going on with the spread between treasuries and mortgages? could it wide snn right now mor gangs have tracked the upwards move in rate, but could they become more decoupled? >> it has. if you look at mortgage-backed security spreads to treasuries, they have widened from 40 to 60 basis points .4 to .6% depending on what type of asset you're talking about. it would certainly widen more in our opinion, if they were to

sell or anticipate they were going to sell. last week we heard some rumblings from the fomc that might be a possibility and spreads widened quite a bit on the order of 10 to 15 basis points last week alone already today just today, spreads are performing well again. so i think the market started to pull back a little bit from that idea of fed selling, but you're going to have more fed governors on your show, i think later today, and then in the coming days, and so we might get more information from them. just from a market practitioner standpoint, though, it seems fairly problematic, at least at this point, given the size of the portfolio, that they would be able to unwind it efficiently. >> yeah. we'll be listening for any hint that they might feel they have to at this point but maybe they feel comfortable watching rates do what they will great to have you today. thank you so much. we appreciate it >> thanks, kelly y. we appreciate it. still ahead the yen is at a seven-year low against the dollar we'll tell you what's behind the

recent plunge and what officials are trying to do about it. plus will solar companies get scorched as the biden administration cracks down on imports? we'll bring you details on the names that could benefit or get hurt "the exchange" is back in a moment i may be close to retirement, but i'm as busy as ever. and thanks to voya, i'm confident about my future. voya provides guidance for the right investments. they make me feel like i've got it all under control. [crowd cheers] voya. be confident to and through retirement. - super excited to open up my diploma vfrom southern new hampshire university. - i'm nervous, i'm excited. - [man] okay, let's see it. let's see it. - oh my gosh. - as soon as she saw this, i did it and it's here. - [man shouting] yeah! (upbeat music) - [narrator] next term starts soon. visit snhu.edu

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from inversion informal we'll continue to follow it closely. much debate about the cig kabs it has predated recessions over the past couple decades. the collar index on base for the first negative session in five it's higher now than it was at the start of january most of that action coming from the strength against the yen it has meanwhile plunged to the lowest level in seven years. we're used to hearing about yen's strength, not weakness >> this is a historic move in the japanese yen fresh seven-year low investors bracing for an aggressive fed, strengthening the tlar against the yen japan is also an importer of oil. when prices rise, it has to sell yen to buy oil in dollars. that's an interesting inverse playing out. here's why this matters to you as investors if the bank of japan steps in to support the currency, that would push rates up and as peter says, it would result in a ripple effect, sending european and u.s. yields even higher. that interest rate differential

so many investors have been betting on between japan and the u.s., would narrow the question is if japan decides to intervene the key level to watch on the japanese yen is 126. it's currently trading around 122. in the past, a weak currency would invite criticism from u.s. politicians. trump would call out countries for manipulating their currencies to help their economies. this time a stronger dollar has been seen by economists as one way to put a lid on u.s. inflation. >> great point seema, come on over. let's recap everything going on in japan right now they're thinking about or started to cap the yield on their ten-year securities. that's an open-ended commitment. it could put the central bank with huge exposure now they won't intervene the push the yen down. why? why do they feel like they have to fight this so hard? >> yeah. the rest of the world is moving

toward tightening. japan is not there yet their economy is on the mend inflation is not as bigof a concern in japan and that's why they're not in a place right now to tighten rates and, therefore, this effort to really stabilize the currency. you know ya, this has been a sae haven trade for investors. so see the japanese yen move this way, it throws off trades and changes the way americans view this as a safe haven. >> it does we watch it with great interest. we appreciate it, seema. let's get to tyler for a cnbc news update. the united states dourn playing russia's announcement it will reduce the military activity around the capital of kyiv secretary of state blinken told reporters there is what russia says and there is what russia does and reuters quotes a u.s. official saying any movement of russian forces from around the capital is a redeployment, not a withdrawal a ukrainian commander says his fighters are regaining

control of areas initially lost after the russian invasion he says they're using thousands of missiles every day and need more help with weapons the u.s. and allies are reportedly considering another round of assistance for ukraine. it could reach $500 million. in lviv a ukrainian celebrity chef feeding refugees from the war who are heading to poland the winner of the ukrainian version of "master chef" says he knows he's not good with guns, but he says he's in his words, a very nice warrior with a knife in the kitchen tonight on the news, analysis from a former state department official who oversaw russian sanctions during the obama administration that's at 7:00 with shep smith i'll see you in half an hour still ahead, lng stocks to bound to get a boost from the natural gas deal with europe there are two companies in particular that my next guest says stand out as near-term winners. are names and what sets them

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the yield curve went flat. i don't know if we can show it for a moment

the twos tens yield curve we've been watching all afternoon narrowed to two basis point and then one apparently went flat we know for sure can't yet confirm if it went negative in the past couple minutes here while we were in the break. it is currently showing.006 of a percentage point higher. we will watch it closely and show it if the flatness or the inversion happens again. the meantime, the white house recently announcing a deal to provide more natural gas to europe in an effort to end their dependence on russian energy it's caused a runup in global emergency prices, especially for natural gas. u.s. companies have benefitted from higher lng prices up this year shell is up, chevron up 37%, cheniere up 35%. joining us with the names that could outperform in this new energy is chase mullvehill who do you think could be some

of the standouts here? >> thanks for having me on the show today some of the standouts that we think are going to benefit from an increase in lng demand over the longer term is going to be baker hughes and chart industries they make a lot of the equipment that is needed for liquefaction and regas. so as the world needs more lng over the next five to ten years, as russia continues to kind of wean it off of -- i'm sorry, as europe ends up weaning itself off of russia gas, it's going to be a big positive. you're going to see a lot of order growth and installed capacity additions over the next five to ten years. >> and chart may not be a familiar name to the audience. the target nice 195. a decent amount of up side for baker hughes, the mystery chart going into the break, a target of 44. that raises the question of how

much of the prospects of this european deal are already priced into these stocks given the rallies they've had this year? >> yeah. they definitely had nice rallies but we think there's still more up side. and look, the benefit of this with the lng with both a baker hughes and chart, you know, you get the juice for l and g. over 50% of charts revenues are generated from natural gas and lng. about a third of baker hughes is if you think about what europe is going to do when it tries to replace russia gas, it's going to be with lng and also with renewables i mean, both of these companie have renewables exposure when you think about hydrogen and carbon capture, both of the companies have meaningful exp exposure they're going to have both sides of the coin. not only lng but renewables

exposure >> we know that's going to be a huge boon for esg investors, younger investors. what about williams and kinder morgue snn. >> when we think about lng, the u.s. is going to be a big supplier of incremental lng. when we think about 2025 you're going to see at least 150 mtpa of lng a lot of that is going to come from the u.s and so if you're going to have to increase lng exports, you're going to have natural gas, you'll have to feed gas in the u.s. so that's going to benefit some of the midstream players our fair is williams, but kinder morgan is also exposed they're the two largest natural gas exposed. >> i understanding is you had a neutral on williams. you change it to a buy >> no. our neutral was on kinder.

there's some offsets there with kinder that kind of offset the benefit of the lng over the longer term. our favorite lng play is williams on the midstream side >> all right we'll leave it there thanks for calling in. we appreciate it >> thank you still ahead, solar stocks have been seeing nice gains this month. there could be head winds ahead for the industry we'll tell you what they are and talk about some potential winners and losers right after this quick break ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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welcome back inflation has been pressuring the solar companies. now there's a trade battle brewing in the sector. pippa has a look at the story. >> another blow for an industry grappling with rising costs. the department of commerce launching an investigation that could result in extending tariffs currently imposed on

chinese solar imports. to panels from vietnam and cambodia together the four countries make up 80% of total u.s. imports california based oxen solar requested the probe claiming chinese companies are avoiding tariffs by moving manufacturing. they note the value of chinese imports has decreased by 86 % since the tariffs in 2012 while imports from the other four countries have risen by more than 800%. solar advocates say meaningful production takes place in these countries and extending tariffs would decimate the u.s. industry they argue the tariffs are not led to robust u.s. manufacturing. american clean power saying the case drives a stake through the heart of planned solar projects. if you don't know, you know, your cost, you're not going to build. turning to the company level impact, the inves koe solar fund is lower analysts say this is a negative for panel makers

as well as for utility scale component providers. on the flip side, first solar and axon solar, same of the names that could benefit >> the department of commerce has launched the investigation what should we expect now in terms of next steps? >> okay. so there's 150 days for the preliminary decision, so that gets us to about the end of august and then 300 days before a final decision that's the end of next january and there was a lot of unknowns here the tariffs could be between 50% and 250% so basically if your utility scale developer and the panels are a third of the costs, you're not going to get back in and launch a project or break ground when you have no idea what the overall cost is going to be. >> wow that's a huge level of uncertainty. right at a time when many might be more interested in this pip 35, appreciate it for much shares of academy sports and outdoors popping after strong earnings comps and guidance and creative solutions to solve

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according to our data which is based on trade web, the two-year ten-year hit zero but did not go negative other sources are reporting something else they're saying it inverted briefly. but that is based off of other data i think we can all hope it inverts more significantly so we don't have dueling headlines in the meantime, we're up about 1.5 basis points one retailer has been to navigate rising rates and inflation success any. reported record sales and profits for the fourth quarter and the whole of 2021 and issued strong full year guidance. they got creative to solve supply chain by sharing shipping containers with other retailers and contracting their own planes the shares are up about 9% today on all of this news. joining me is the chairman and ceo of academy sports. we are seeing consumer sentiment at a low ebb

would you say people are right this is an environment where people are frustrated and mad about inflation but they're still spending? >> people are still spending particularly in our area because people want to have fun. they have developed a lot of hobbies and habits over the last couple of years. and habits the last couple years, and we're seeing them in our stores more frequently, buying things to go out and enjoy themselves with. >> based on what you see in shopping behavior, do you think the economy remains on solid footing? >> i think it's challenged but still upright. you know, the consumer is out there. i think thaey're being more selective about what they're buying and more thoughtful, but they're still out there buying. >> what are the strongest and weakness product areas right now? >> well, we're seeing things in sports very strong outdoor, camping people are out there buying

grills and sports apparel and footwear. >> to me, it sounds like all of it there's still this interest in getting outdoors, and it is not necessarily ended with the pandemic which, of course, was a concern from some investors. tell me about the labor market, are you able to fill roles what's going on with wage pressures? what are you seeing there? >> we're fortunate in that we're a desired place to work. we managed our wages. we have increased them over the past couple of years we're both 100% staffed in our stores and our distribution centers at this time >> so, again, on the wage front, does that fgive you any concern about future pressure on profit margins? >> we are monitoring that very closely, but we want to take care of our team members so we are paying a good wage at the same time, we've got to make the appropriate adjustments

where we can in the merchandise. we're a value retailer, so it is very important that we maintain good pricing where we can, we're taking some prices up. we're modifying merchandise to make it have more value to the consumer, so that we can adjust pricing. we want to keep that value focus for our customer. >> finally, it does sound like you've had to report to unusual methods to get products and navigate the supply chains, like sharing those shipping containers orhiring your own planes are those expected to continue >> you know, if you would have asked me a few months ago, i would have thought we would be further along than we arem the supply chain challenges will continue into, you know, for sure the latter part of this year but we also are doing things we use alternative ports we're located in the south and southeast, so weuse galveston

and some of the east coast ports. we also are ordering goods earlier and making sure we have long-term arrangements with trucking and shipping companies so that we can get the merchandise when we need it. >> is it any one factor or several different factors that are making these challenges still persistent >> it's a whole bunch of things. factory shutdowns in asia, labor shortages in the united states, trucking shortages it's a whole bunch of things that are impacting the supply chain. fuel costs are increasing. the cost to get merchandise to the stores so far, we've been able to overcome it, and we're actually in pretty good stock position right now. >> you certainly have. the shares are up 60% over the past year. ken, thanks for joining us again today. >> thank you, kelly. have a great day. >> ken hicks with academy sports and outdoors up next, it's not just

billionaires who need to brace for higher taxes if president biden's 2023 budget gets passed in full. what other high-earners and investors, in particular, need to know. and check out apple, which is up for its 11th straight day, making it the longest winning streak for the stock since 2003. the market cap also approaching $3 trillion. the shares just under $178 we're back in a moment

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welcome back president biden's budget includes more than a dozen tax hikes on high earners and a very big change for investors let's get to robert frank for the details. robert >> kelly, there's been a lot of talk about the billionaires tax, but households earning more than $450,000 a year also get a tax hike in this budget. now, the top rate goes from 37% to 39.6% more importantly, the income

threshold for the top bracket drops from $650,000 per household to $450,000 per households $400,000 for single fliers now, those earning between $400,000 and $500,000 actually get a double hike from 35% to 39.6%. up two brackets. as you mentioned, the capital gains rate is the most important for investors. that would be go from 23.8% to 40.8%. that applies only to those who make more than $1 million in combined income and realized capital gains. that, though, would be the largest one-time jump ever for the capital gains tax rate now, a lot of changes around the gift and estate tax. the step up in base is controversial. that'd go away there are tighter rules around generation skipping trusts and grantor trusts those have become hugely popular along the wealthy. it'd get rid of like-kind exchanges for investment real estate that's what properties over

$500,000 are the loophole fueled a lot of the real estate investment in recent years, so that'll have a big impact if it passes. certain charitable giving also coming under scrutiny. biden calls for requiring donor advised funds to distribute more money to charity yes, carrieied interest on the chopping block once again. this is, of course, a big benefit to private equity and hedge fund partners. three administrations now, biden, obama, and trump, have all promised to eliminate carried interest it has not happened. elizabeth warren saying on our air this morning they just can't get the votes. but it is in the budget, so we'll see, kelly. >> that's a big increase on capital gains for those households what do people think would be the impact if all of this were to come to pass? >> well, everyone, no matter how they earn their income, whether it is ordinary income or capital gains, would see a large increase so everyone would just pay a lot more taxes we'd see how that changes investing, how it changes

consumption, and how it changes savings. but these would be substantial increases. very little chance all of it happens. there is some chance that some of it happens. >> exactly this is the starting point for where we may end up. robert, as always, thank you robert frank that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" begins right now welcome, everybody, to "power lunch." i'm tyler mathis kelly will rejoin me in a second this is a busy hour. the ten-year, two-year yield curve, the difference inyields between those two bonds or bills, close to inverting. what that means for the market and your investments that's just one of the topics that we will ask our fed power player about. philadelphia fed president patrick harker is with us exclusively. he warns that inflation is running far too high we'll talk to him abou