chip manufacturer, its price is depressed because the world is concerned about chinese aggression in taiwan the example of russia where they have been isolated in the global eco economy is going to slightly diminish that risk >> thank you that does it for us. "fast money" is now. >> this is "fast money kwpgs i'm melissa lee. tonight's lineup micron and llulu are popping. a record-breaking day for robin hood shares jumping nearly 25% today and up 45% in the last ten trading days later, a fast pitch from a face

on fast money. this darling is not just a rental in your portfolio that's a hint. we aren't just talking about today's games. the s&p 500 surges more than 12% since the intraday low in february closing up for the first time since january 14 and within one basis point of going negative new york fed president bill dudley sounding the alarm. the fed's application -- so, what do you believe? how do you trade this market guy, i will go to you first today? >> hi, mel the market, the rally over the

last 3 1/2 weeks has been remarkable the s&p is probably up 500 handles. it's all just incredible we talk about this a lot when the market sells off we talk about panic i would submit the last month has been panic buying. i am in the bill dudley camp yes, the fed is in the curve they are acknowledging in all different voices there is rising inflation they can't control. slowing growth what are the right earnings on the back of this over the next couple months. the rally has been epic. >> the rally has been extraordinary. i did very little buying in the last whoosh down which seems so long ago, but it was short i think it is possible that we are seeing peak inflation numbers. i think that even though the fed

is going to tighten pretty aggressively in almost any scenario, but i think the inflation numbers, if they do get a little bit cooler, i think that gives us a shot of a softer landing. i am not as bearish as dudley. i haven't bought a lot here. the one thing i was thinking of buying more of was banks you would think why would you do that i think it's overly priced in. and bar for earnings for banks this season will be low. >> has the call for recession become consensus you hear more and more of people saying recession is a possibility. you hear more and more people and think that's in the markets already. >> that's what the stock market is telling you over the last few weeks. we know that the rate hike

expectations have only increased. the fed made their policy a year or so ago. when i think about what the stock market is discounting, that's important if we are all saying the word recession, by the time it does in fact get here, then the markets will have moved on except for the fact that for ten years people have been suggesting we would have run away nflation. it took a war in eastern europe for it really to exasperate all of the issues we thought we would be beyond when it comes to supply chains and some of the forces such as cost of good, service it is. if we throw a couple trillion at physical and monetary to get by this pandemic and all of a sudden we are saying there might be other ones here i am going back to where we were

prepandemic. we were averaging 2.2% the fed was dying to get above 2% i don't think the three months we had in the stock market encaps encapsulates years and years of feds gone away i don't care if there is a recession or not we had a recession about two years ago. the fed will do what they need to do to manage inflation. how the stock market reacts. i am a guy we overshot the downside a month ago. we might do the same to the upside >> tim >> the overshoot to the upside came from an overshoot from the downside which comes from the correction we already saw in the multiple s&p which was two or tleer turns off numbers that didn't make sense. the biggest issue is i think

it's impossible to know what stocks are worth it's great to hear from the interest rate sensitive banks. but to estimate demand, we may not know until q 2 we don't know. we can see what the market might do to price in some bit of recession for stocks, but we have to hear from what companies say operating in an environment where rates are higher i think the one positive here is that the consumer still is very flush with cash, still has a job, cares less about inflation than they are going to in a couple months when they may or may not still have that same job. i am not going to say it's going to fall out of window, but the comment of the fed being more focused on inflation or lack thereof or jobs.

in semiconductors in 11 sessions, 17%. in the biggest companies in the world. in 11 sessions this is too far. in a vix in this environment where you have current and former central bankers, anyone who can weigh in, very concerned about navigating this. >> only if you think we overshot to the downside. >> if we didn't overshoot to the downside >> right >> i think the pendulum swung too far. the vix, that is astounding to me we have timpped a couple times this year. half that now. that's quite a move. >> guy, i will take the more sunny side of things is it possible it was the opposite of buy the rumor, sell

the news we are on the other side at this point. we are on the other side and the markets are looking past the potential of recession as karen said, maybe we have seen peak inflation numbers, maybe we have seen prices factored into the market going higher >> you are channeling your inner van morrison which was okay black and white made it quite jarring to me. wonderful movie. if you think about it again, this federal reserve was very clear in what they were doing. taking liquidity away and the balance sheet. they have created this situation. i'm shocked the markets aren't reacting it was in november when the feds changed course and markets continue to rally through the end of the year. we attribute that to seasonality. this is a quarter in, here at the end of the march

i mentioned this last week pete was on a couple mondays ago and mentioned at the top of the show he was seeing $70 vix calls being bought that's resonating in my head now you have a vix south of 19 something is a bit askew in my in order, melissa lee. >> mar tthew is a friend of the show he is out with a call today. he said historically markets do well at the start of a tightening cycle the real rate is still negative so stimulative and not all banks are tightening, say bank of china and bank of japan. those are three reasons maybe we are being too bearish. >> it's always different

bank of japan will always be the most dovish one in the room so let's not count them and there were comments out of europe today from former central bankers as well. i love marco's work. i think he's great at some of these turns and at putting a dose of levity meaning where market positioning is. i think it is the velocity of this move. feds this far offside, in terms of where we already have underlying demands on the back of this reopening and otherwise, i think this is one of the times that is different. i do think everyone screaming recession probably means we won't have one but where you are playing the equity market, of course, when things are good, the fed you

won't be seeing hiking we have never seen hiking with consumer confidence this low >> we have been pointing out things that have been crashing for about a year tech valuations, spacs, crypto, recent tech dot ipos that we thought were unsustainable we are talking about assets that really have crashed. you have four stocks that make up about 40% much the nasdaq 100. that is the safety trade so if the fed is going to be taking away liquidity and you have capital going to work, it's going to microsoft, to apple, to google that's what kept these major

indices intact whether it is the square and stuff like that that got down 60, 70, some 80% maybe that's the crash if there is nothing fundamental about the amazon, google, apple trade. that's about 25% tina, sorry, that's it >> let's bring in joe, chief economist. >> thank you >> where do you peg the probability of recession >> by year end, about 50/50. >> how about the argument that the consumer is flush with cash, sitting on savings, they have good jobs, rising wages, so they can weather inflation.

the economy can do okay. >> i don't believe that. tim made a good point about consumer expectations during the mid 50s. typically that's associated with recession. it doesn't hold up because savings rate and earnings are flows. coming back down to prepandemic level. there will be a lot of demand coupled with shelters. the reason i say 50/50 there is a chance for things to settle in ukraine. but the longer that crisis goes on, we will have a recession by year end >> if you had a magic wand or were fed chair, what would you do at this point or is it too late >> if yield curve would tell you

it's probably too late i would get to 1%, scrap the dots, get rid of this transparency the fed can't predict anything and go back to more of the greenspan approach, which will never happen if the economy was okay in the back half of the year, then i would go to 2% i would take it as step function they are not saying they are going to do that they are going to raise rates seven, eight, nine meetings in a row. >> you mentioned if the conflict in ukraine gets resolved, and the resolution of this conflict as it relates to sanctions being lifted, if the conflict is resolved, sanctions may not be lifted and we may still feel those same inflationary pressures? >> that's right. but feds will want to raise

rates because it's behind the curve given negative real rates. but you would be worried about extended recession on food fertilizer costs are surging so food inflation is a real problem. it's a bigger weight than energy seldom do we have food and energy shocks at the same time sanctions are unlikely to dissipate, but it may take out high end tail rate that may be 10 or 11%. march numbers are going to show inflation rates year on year at around 9 >> thank you, joe. he mentioned the impact on food. food specifically. farmers are planting less, right? there isn't enough fertilizer to go around. it is not just the impact on food prizes today in the next couple months but it will be in

next year's krobs -- crops those are things not many have factored into their models >> we talk about the cure for higher commodity prices are higher commodity prices. if you look at intrepid ipi which is a potash company. if you look where food prizes are, i do think you can play this into some of the industrial stocks, whether a john deere or caterpillar. this gets into what you would do if we actually do see peace break out in eastern europe. we are going to save that for a different part of the show i don't think the trends we see right now with commodities change overnight i have said this over and over i think these are structural issues that have nothing to do with spending, but have to do

with core businesses >> guy >> the fundamental is in price and structural problems were in place long before 90% of the population could find ukraine on a map. this sped things up. i don't think things will dissipate when peace does break out. john deere and company trading less than a market multiple, reasonable given their growth projection i think you can stay with those names regardless of what is going on in the world. >> we have a recession playbook and it is those massive tech names and recurring revenue you probably go up to. >> what should you do now with ukraine/russia we will break it down with the peace playbook and there will be after

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welcome back we have micron and lula reporting results a short time ago. micron, talking about the impact of ukraine me -- kristina >> micron technology is confident that momentum will continue and cost reductions will outpace the industry. this is despite the u train/russia tensions. as the ceo is saying on the phone call right now they expect an increase in our cost as we secure a supply of certain raw materials that could be at risk the ceo warned about an expected slowdown in china, as well as inflation cost pressures and certain semiconductor shortages they expect to persist in 2023.

on the call they did suggest three main drivers, data centers, transition to 5g and the flow of ev models that keep coming out every year. and they see increase for dram and nand which is used for more permanent storage. he will be on cnbc about 9:15 a.m. shares of the company climbing hire after hours back to you. >> guy, what did you make of the quarter here >> valuation alone stocks should be north of 100 bucks. you have the massive tops from last summer and the summer before but operating margins. 35.3%. last year it beat what the street was looking for and they

went higher. i get people saying it is a cyclical business. but the lion's share of the revenue, they are extraordinary. i think this quarter should set up to trade north of $95 >> so maybe what we are seeing in the semiconductors isn't so nuts based on what micron is telling us >> micron is one of the great trading stocks of all time you have had three moves of up 25 or down 25. the key is they talk about demandand industrial and in auto and gaming. the question is where they will be but you can do the math, not an expensive stock. the valuation will be compelling, but i am not sure demand will be in the same place

in six months. >> this all ties in together we see a lot of volatility in this preearnings period that we have been in we know that -- we saw adobe last week and nike that same week the stocks have had some moves i think you want to extrapolate as we get into the end of the quarter, into earnings season next month, but these stocks are not performing that well i think you are seeing that investors are going to be a little bit glass half empty as it relates to visibility going forward. but micron in particular you can take what they are saying at face value you want to buy a stock like this on pullback, i am not sure you chase nvidia which has been rallying for four weeks. >> lulu lemon surging.

rh volatile after hours. the revenue missed on demand the company also announced a three for one stock split. court? >> lulu lemon is moving on a stronger outlook than expected and they are authorizing a buyback program. they say they will increws prices on a small portion of styles they say they are moving to navigate the supply congestion going on and it continues. he also said the new category just went on sale in the united states and china and has dramatically exceeded expectation. as far as rh, they say current

quarters remain healthy due to backlog, but they also say it coincided with the invasion by russia of ukraine. they are calling for a conservative outlook and rh also announced a three for one stock split. the shares are flagt right now but we have bounced around >> you choose where to go. >> let's go to lulu for 500. >> if they have issues, it will be hard for others to compete. when you have a brand like they have, you can price them and keep them.

that's a lot of pants at a good valuation. it is a great business i don't own it anymore it is nearly two times the market multiple. it deserves to be a premium, but two times is a little too rich for me >> guy >> i will go to restoration hardware for 500 i am looking at it stock had a big day out. valuation levels at 15 times these numbers. they said they were conservative the stock was cut half from its all time high. i believe there is an upside >> if you think the best in housing is behind us, do you want to buy a bureau and patio furniture anymore? >> rh has hurt me badly in the last couple years.

i'm done i don't think they will have the demand they had. remember when we were stuck in our homes and they said they had more value than prepandemic. they said they are looking at roughly 11 or 12% on the year. i don't think that's enough. no question valuation is not difficult, but i think it is a case that they are the ones that will be paying higher costs for shipping, materials. it's a dynamic where there is a pull forward on demand lulu, it's expensive, but 37 or 38 times isn't awful for the margins they have. >> when you say rh hurt you, you mean the stock or price of the furniture? >> i mean stuff started showing up at my house like 18 or 20 months after i ordered it, or somebody else did. it was painful >> just wanted to clarify.

>> if you read their letter, they are very grand visions, rh architecture, rh landscaping i don't recall a transformation like maybe ralph loren i wonder if they get distracted and start spending money and somehow lose their way maybe not. they have done an extraordinary job, no question to me that's a little bit of a flag >> something to watch. we are just getting started on "fast money." here is what is coming up next >> how do you position your portfolio during the russia/ukraine conflict. plus, grab a glove we have a stock coming your way, st could be a total home run-in

ve t -- investment we will be back right after this ♪ ♪ imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon? in other words... etoro.the power of social investing.

welcome back russia and ukraine holding cease-fire talks in part it helped the market climb. how should you be positioning yourself for a potential end to the fighting in ukraine. guy,we also play out the scenario, if i told you what will happen, tell me what to do, or what i should do something

later. we get complaints about this that it should be something snappier if you knew there would be peace tomorrow, what would the trade be >> i like the fact that people are always at us on twitter about these things but defense stocks will sell off. we hope that does happen i think we are all praying for that, but lockheed martin will sell off 8 to 10%. and people will think they trade at a discount to the broader market with earnings growth to back it up countries won't make the same mistake twice. you saw the announcement out of germany. if that were to happen, i think you buy lockheed on the downfall >> karen, you came up with this game or whatever you want to

call it. >> i was talking to natalie about this, peace train. she had never heard of the song. that was amazing to me i would look to wheat. the knee jerk -- guy talked about the knee-jerk reaction might not be the right thing in the long run, but energy down, oil down even though i think we will continue to export to europe and i think we will drill more than we were. i think oil will be down i think some european bounce, so airlines, like delta that has more exposure. i looked at the dax who has more exposure and they were roundtrip before the invasion. so i wouldn't do that. >> i would look at fed ex, things that are deep value being negatively impacted by some of the supply train issues.

fedex fits in that bucket. i know there is news about the ceo stepping down. he was a great ceo but this company make take a different course they have mid single digit revenue growth i think maybe this is a big tim name or karen name this would be one if we have a more peaceful world, a world coming out of a pandemic, i think this is a name you would look for value to growth >> tim >> transports have been rocking. 10,000 rockets did a great cover of "peace train. on peace announcement you will see oil and uranium pull back. and don't fall asleep on gold. i think the way the u.s. government and central bank and treasury control other central banks is not something they

enjoy. there is diversification uranium projects will continue to come on line. energy at less than 4% in the waiting of the s&p is going higher it was at 16 at its peak for the trade and investment in energy, these are your peace trades coming up, robin hood hike the move that had investors piling in. next, play ball. the stock is said to be a total home run-in vest the name next. we're hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uhhh... [children laughing] doug? [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has easy-to-use tools and some of the lowest prices. get e*trade and start trading today.

let's get another check of after earnings reported. check out air bnb, jumping 4% today. they are back in the green for

the year adam is here with his fast pitch for air bnb. why do you like air bnb. >> 27% of the workforce is working from home. that's mind blowing data the fact of the matter is air bnb say 24% of the folks renting from them are renting for 28 days or longer there are 150 users. that's get my attention as well. >> 27% of workers working from home, i would guess that number has been dwindling as offices start to reopen, that will continue. is there anything that makes you think that number is sticky? >> i think it's sticky the number one requirement folks want is flexibility. it is an employee world right now we are living. >> as we continue to reopen, how

much competition will air bnb have from traditional hotels and resorts? >> you have the traditional brick and mortar establishments like marriott. they have 120,000 employees versus air bnb only has about 6,000. the fact of the matter is, 50% of all of the investment buyers out there are paying in cash and rents are up 40% in some parts of the country that's a layup >> adam, it's tim. do you believe air bnb should trade at a premium to other online travel? i realize a slightly different model and cost, but are they significantly cheaper. >> air bnb has their own platform 90% of their users come directly

to them. others, like marriott, are copying what air bnb are doing they have been around a long time there are 200 million amazon prime users. and one of them is jeff bezos. >> how do you get to the market cap potential. how do you get there >> i am a math guy they made 42% and in 2019 they made 21% let's exclude 2020 because of the pandemic but last year they are up 77%. i agree with jim cramer, hotels are going to the sidelines, air bnb are the new way. >> thank you for your pitch. it is time for us on the desk to vote

are you buying adam's pitch. dan, you had an aarp trade and this was one much the as >> this stock has performed pretty well. i like his pitch you are trying to figure out how this company can grow into the multiple of sales. two years out, maybe you have a guy adame hat size 80% gross margin in sales. i think it makes sense this is the sort of moat the way he made the case versus bookings for expedia justifies a higher case. i like it. >> guy >> are you able to read this >> the a in the dawn

>> i am leaving my board up for obvious reasons. i agree. if you look at the quarter, they reported on february 16th, they showed you a glimpse of what was possible average price around 200 i think it goes higher >> and the board is still in front of guy's face. >> besides its steep valuation, there are two things i like. cash flow positively not the nicest yield, but that's okay, it's growing nicely. and in the rental space they have a look. i know there is competition, but they have a great brand. yes, i like it >> tim, are you going to doom adam with a buy? >> just so he has a shot in favor. a lot of competition let's go mets.

>> random. the traders have spoken, but are you at home buying air bnb the results after the show but first, no trading at the dinner table the changes that robin hood just made that had the stock soaring. . now when it comes to a financial plan this broker is your man. let's open your binders to page 188... uh carl, are there different planning options in here? options? plans we can build on our own, or with help from a financial consultant? like schwab does. uhhh... could we adjust our plan... ...yeah, like if we buy a new house? mmmm... and our son just started working. oh! do you offer a complimentary retirement plan for him? as in free? just like schwab. schwab! look forward to planning with schwab.

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welcome back to "fast money. check out robin hood trading hours will be extended on its platform from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. investors loving this move from robin hood why, karen >> more volume is that limited only to robin hood to robin hood >> no. it's going into the pool >> i don't know. >> i think it's probably just an excuse for a short squeeze you look at this thing it had been flat lining in the $12 range. short interest i don't think it will be that

important one way or another >> one of the reasons, as people said in their blog, people are back at work and they come home and want to trade. or maybe they want to trade before work. tim, maybe this is good. i don't think this is a game changer. there has been a correlation between all of these as set classes and even robin hood. as someone nibbling in the stock market and saw that expire worthless, i feel there is a sticky customer base and a demographic i wouldn't want to own. i agree this is a cast list for other -- high multiple tech stocks have had runs at the bottom after crashing.

some of these moves i think you can nibble at. >> this was an $85 stock it absolutely crashed. it was 9.50 stock a couple weeks ago. it could double and be in extraordinary bear marketer tri. i could see this with an 18 handle if it gets there, sell it again. as i have said a dozen times on this show, the most innovated thing about robin hood is the name and the hair on some of those dudes. >> coming up, big moves and had options traders charging into one of these names and there is still time to vote on adam's fast pitch are you buying on air bnb. "fast money" is back in two. the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim.

with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business,

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♪♪ i'm using xfinity xfi's powerful, reliable connection to stream “conference calls” on every one of these devices. i'm “filing my taxes” early. “wedding planning.” we're streaming uh... “seminars.” are your vows gonna make me cry? yes! babe. (chuckles) look at that! another write off. that's a foul! what kind of call is that!? definitely “not” watching basketball. not us. i wouldn't do that. here is a sneak peek at the cramer cam jim cramer is talking with the

ceo of fedex check out the big moves today, block, mastercard, paypal, visa and traders are betting one of these are about to test the highest level of the year. mike >> i think we saw options traders piling into all for. we aregoing to focus on the largest of those they traded twice as many bearish as bullish trades. 83 cents for a little over 2800. that means they will be targeting the levels of just under 2.40 we saw in february. >> guy, you flagged these earlier on our midday call >> they stiuck out like a sore

thumb. you know what else stuck out like a sore thumb, "options action." and who has three names? >> carter. >> there is something going on in all of these names. they are making up for lost ground and to mike's point i think there is upside for visa >> karen >> visa, across borders are profitable to them if peace is here i bought a couple on affirm and paypal i sold affirm. had a crazy bounce i am going to hang on to paypal. >> how about square? still down 50% from its all time high >> mike, thank you for more ""options action"" be fda to tune into the full show

onriy. up next the results of adam's pitch on air bnb, and your final trade. even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim® is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools. dedicated trade desk pros and a passionate trader community sharing strategies right on the platform. because we take trading as seriously as you do. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison, my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors the garcia's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized. hey john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to.

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final trade is sponsored by -- time to find out if fans are buying in on adam's air bnb. 53% said no and 47% said yes that's probably because the majority of our traders said to buy. let's go around the horn tim? >> i am long on boeing i think the defense dynamics of this company like me some boeing. >> guy >> look at the move in blackstone over the last couple weeks. poised to take out its all time high >> karen >> morgan stanley. i like that it doesn't have some of the spread issues that the banks do although i would think the capital is, but the

valuation is morgan stanley >> nathan? >> i can looking to the outgoing ceo of fedex's interview on jim cramer >> we will see you bac my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing % field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job isn't just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. we do not know how things will play out in ukraine, although the positive chatter about peace talks about help prope