>> and then some. >> yeah. a grprogression. niche industries in differen places allowing women to advance pay. >> florida look at gainesville, university of florida then naples, immokalee, marco island. >> what's going on here, dom, i heard you talk how you like naples stay-at-home dad vibes >> in the spring, by the way. >> dominick, thanks. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" up next. stocks hitting session lows. nasdaq down more than 1% most important hour of trading starts now welcome everyone to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen things stand in the market down first time in five days. s&p 500 down 0.8 a leg lower. only sectors working today energy an utilities. everybody else down. technology hit after a strong run. nasdaq down. oil popping more than 3% and

small caps giving back and big takeaways today. a warning sign in a rally. down utilities, train day, all-time high today. up 10% for the month on pace for the best month in a year utilities a safe haven or recession, and that's part of the market that shows defensive positioning could be a signal more turbulence is coming. and signs of cracks in the mortgage market. falling compared to the week before including a 15% weekly drop in refinancing applications this as it's getting increasingly expensive to buy a home mortgage rates up, prices up. 22% slide in home builders this year suggests demand could be the next domino to fall. and lululemon. look any other guide 24% to 26% sales growth q1 and more than 20% for the year higher than where the street

was. lulu dealing with higher costs shipping to airfreight from ship, but a strong brand and pricing power make lulu consistently a standout in retail interesting to see whether they can carry that strength into new releases and new categories like sneakers straight to the top story. what could be the next big catalyst for the market. earnings a number of stocks selling off reporting disappointing results. restoration hardware citing supply chain issues and the fed. ceos of chewy and five below discussing supply chain concerns we'll hear from them later in the hour the question, are these issues company-specific or a broader warning for the market joining us, from cantor fitzgerald and from j & p securities taking different sides of the debate here the more bearish of the two, what are you taking out of earnings >> so we think that earnings are

overall going to be a negative catalyst for the market. you pointed out saw it today from restoration hardware among a couple others. what rh said, what you pointed out and a slowdown seen in the last month you had them saying that, taiwan semi seeing slowdown in consumer electronics. negative pc checks out there and you reference the mortgage application data we think a big part of our bearish thesis is a slowdown in growth and it's going to hit earnings we are seeing excellent examples of that today and we think that's going to be the trend we're going to see during earninearn season the consumer has too many headwinds against them although entering in great shape, headwinds will be too much to not hit discretionary spending reverberating throughout the company. >> i thought gary friedman, ceo

of rh was refreshingly hon effort and candid about remarks of the headwinds softening from the war called out janet yellen treasury saect number of time on the call we'll play a clip what he was talking about. >> now all of a sudden, you know, boom we've got a war, you know. russia invades ukraine boom you know yellen says interest yield down. inflation going from four to two and goes to seven and a half and powell says we're behind a lot of -- yeah everybody thinks supply chains are getting better. i don't think we've gotten better at all. >> mark, how is that not a warning for other consumer companies? >> it is and i think we all know that the next few quarters and probably rest of the year will be difficult for consumer and for supply chain, but i think pointed out, what you pointed out top of the hour, look at

performance and lululemon' performance and divergence where stocks are today gone from everything is great few years ago to everything is horrible last three months to now pick and choose. pick winners and really know what your company's looking at where they're sourcing, how much is going on through asia and domestically and back to that stock picker start we often talk about. divergence in the two stocks is glaring. that's what we'll see through rett of the year that's okay. too easy in 2020 and 2021. tough the last few moss and now back to stock picker market, when is just fine what does it mean for tech, mark? i usually think of you embracing the high growth tech companies which had a nice comeback lately, but some wonder if that ends when the quarter ends here tomorrow >> well, you're right. we do a lot here at j & p and focus a lot on technology. we've seen big tech high fliers

come in a lot after the end of 2021 and beginning of the year also see some come a great deal off the bottom talked about some on the show, sara you're right to point it out company-specific talked in the last hour about different performance in terms of the autonomous vehicle and electric perform innocence the last three four weeks from a company like tesla or rivian, the last year, dramatic differences in the state of development as a stock picker, you want to be long tesla last 6 to 12 months and careful of names like rivian that's what i'm talking about. gone from everybody's terrible market last three months to picking names. pick and choose the winners. try every day to do that, you'll be happy you did that. even the rate environment we're talking about. we've come through this and talked a lot about the yield curve. i think we're all prepared for the rates to rise here and how we're going to play that market. i think that's where the market found its bottom a few weeks ago, and again selling off a

little today no hysteria today. look at vix trading closer to 20 and 40 a positive sign for investors to play the market and play the names we've been talking about here at j & p. >> yeah. you like paypal and docusign both controversial eric, last word. your strategy given your more defensive posture and worries about earnings and growth? >> sure. we think within equities you want to be long defenses and end a couple back with energy. we think that commodity prices no 3matter what happens in russia/ukraine situation will stay big a lot of issues coming from that around less capital spending in russia and some of the issues around wheat in ukraine et cetera will remain for quarters or years post this crisis. i think on the short side, you want to be short cyclicals including consumer discretionaries, financials and

sectors most levered to the economy. outside of equities, i think long end of the curve actually looks attractive so i think kind of a barbell approach long end of the curve and long cash, because i think cash even though it's, has a negative real rate of return right now, zero versus 7% inflation. it's going to prove very valuable in the next three to six months as we see what our view is, a correction in equities. >> yeah. a derisking portfolio. eric, mark, thank for joining us 160 on the dow shares of online pet products, chewy, down more than 17%. talk to the ceo about what we weighed on the quarter and y outlook next you're watching cnbc.

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take a look at shares of chewy crushed today. company reporting wider than expected losses yesterday issues like supply chain rising expense. guidance in short of analysts forecasts. kmuy ceo is with us now. great to have you back on the show welcome. >> nice to be here >> looking at double digit decline in stock all sorts of misses top and bottom line and outlook. what happened? >> we saw in q4, what i consider the top. and being the fundamental that underpin our business. strong demand. good customer demand, strategies

intact balanced against volatility a lot of companies face now look at the core fundamentals, to be able to look at them and say, well, consumer is healthy momentum positive. look at it, delivered 24% year over year growth on top of really strong from last year >> a little showcasing underlying expense in the business model and we're really happy with that. and near-term pressures in nature and essentially are pressures from before and already seeing improvement coming q1. >> to be clear, you've seen growth moderate. in the 20s, now the mid-teens. the question investors are trying to figure out is whether these are transitory problems? like supply chain. or whether there's a slowdown in the growth story what would you tell them

>> i think actually, continued acceleration in the growth story. pre-pandemic adding revenue and normalize the past two and a half years raising revenue 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion dollars guidance this year, providing 15% to 17% top line on top of 24% delivered in 2021. actually 20% if it weren't for the supply chain environment we're dealing with right now continuing to add over $1.5 billion of growth on the year over year basis, in my opinion actually really strong we're bullish in position and the market growth. actually growing 1.6 times market rate. taking shares. and that's also a good side of the story. we're pleased with the way the results are.

>> what about chern? choosing customers or as brick and mortar stores open up? and talking to petco recession proof. seeing strong results, nothing like we saw from you >> results are actually strong delivering 24% growth on top of the 45% growth delivered last year and facing share growing at 1.6 times the market i say the results continue to be strong when you look at the pet industry, recession-proof. 2007 and 2008, most consumer spending went down during that time period and pet spending up 6% during the same amount of time actually seeing something similar happening now. when you look at the core consumable demand, demand for health care and staples and premium product in pets, it's actually resilient any kind of pressure consumer is

feeling right now is likely hard goods or discretionary purchases, weighed down by the recent inflationary pressure the consumers actually seeing. overall, i would say the fundamentals that drive our strategy in the pet industrial world seem to be fairly intact, and we're really excited about 2022 where the team is working hard to work on supply chain pressures, same time consumers remaining loyal and engaged with us. >> there's no issue with the consumer no issue with demand for you >> not in terms of the consumables and health care side discretionary side of the house remains under pressure due to the environment we're seeing now. not just a pet issue, by the way. r overall retail is down on a year over year basis telling you consumer is rationing the dollar, and the dollar going

towards first priorities of staples, consumables and than discretionaries on top of that natural impact of the environment we're in secondly, as the economy opens up, is reopening up, a premise a certain portion of consumers will go back to brick and mortar also what we're seeing on balance when you look at commerce, secular trends that rice commerce growth actually remained really strong in fact, look at pets. last year pets added $10 billion in supplies and online picked up roughly $5 billion of that that's 50% of dollars that moved towards online and this year projections remained $4 billion or $5 billion. really healthy demand, by the way. >> you must be frustrated with stock reaction today and basically the entire last year all of these narratives out there that ecommerce slowed down as a category. that you got all new consumers

during the pandemic, and how to manage to hold on to them. the supply chain hurting worse than -- telling you arguments you're seeing in the notes today. jim cramer today earlier saying didn't admit there was a problem on the earnings call clearly, the stock market is saying otherwise >> yeah. so the fact that, you know in five years or so, pets in ecommerce supposed to get to 50% penetration. those trends aren't actually changing they're strengthening as we go through the pet category engagement remains strong. when you look at the share of wallet for our '21, the first of '21 we now have results for and 2020, the pandemic board and '21, actually strengthened look at share of wallet or engagement in the platform it went up to a record $430

that's an important part, by the way. two parts of the growth. one is customers we add. actually continue to add at a healthy clip on top of that is the acceleration that we're producing a share of wallet. which when you combine, continues the revenue we continue to deliver. supply chain, yes. near-term pressure, in-stock availability and the way the mentor is moving through the supply clahain, and this shall pass meantime, the company doing everything we can toe overcome the pressures and deliver a really, really good experience to customers. >> help for you to come on and explain the story. working on vet platform and pet insurance. talk about that in the future, but thank you for addressing concerns out there today. still ahead, we will get another read on the state of the consumer and headwinds from the supply chain joined by the ceo

of five below. another big mover also ming ov south. apple reportedly working on new technology that could spell trouble for a number of fintech players. we bring you the details, next

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lower on the market into the close. s&p down a full percentage point. looking at session lows. dow down about 200 points now. nasdaq sliding most down 1.5%. at least not including small caps down more than 2% what's driving this lower? a lot of consumer names. consumer discretionaries worse performing sector. some names broken out last few weeks. nvidia, apple, amazon, giving it back today a little reversal of the trend down first time in five days for the s&p. key an eye on the sell-off heading into the close developing story on apple. tech giant working on a project to bring more financial services in-house

this could include things like payment processing, risk assessment for lending and credit checks. potentially replacing the current fintech partners for apple. like block, paypal, green dot dipping lower on this report bring in steve kovach. how does this work >> reporter: what's going on, the report said for future financial products not current. we saw shares of goldman taking some pressure today just because of this, backed the apple card, labeled there as we know for future products such as tons of things they're exploring including crypto heard a little talk about that look down the line what's coming this fall. iphone harvard plan talking about the last week or so. going to need to approve the lending for those iphones they're going to do on a cyclical basis ta could be part of it on top of it any other fintech products they want to layer on top of what they already have. worth noting not for the current products like apple cash and

apple card. >> so you just mentioned subscription hardware. sort of a rumor. right? the company hasn't confirmed anything you've done reporting on this issue. is that what is driving the price of apple relentlessly higher here? down today. >> right. >> but if it were up today 12 days in a row. long eest winning streak since 2003 and almost $3 trillion market cap >> one of the catalysts when the report came out last week. saw the stock jump of the news part of the reason, katie huberty a good note monday kill the cycle of iphone seam ss every three years because people are holding on to iphones longer and longer upgrade every year breaking that super cycle we see in sales every three, four years. that's part of the optimism around that program. i just also say it's like -- look, thinking about these financial products

it's not -- anyways, it's -- not a big, as big of a deal as they're making it out to be and shares we're seeing pressure on. i would really - >> not necessarily a revenue stream right? more a way to deal with costs. >> we already know, earlier this month bought a company called credit kudo. start-up, a competitor to experian that checks your credit score, dip into your bank account, approve you for loans see them weaving in start-ups into this financial products as well. >> apple ecosystem. >> exactly what they're doing here, sara. >> steve, thank you. >> got it. apple down agency more than 1% now. a discount retailer five below down 6.5% slumping on same store s store seales is this taking a bite out of consumer spending? we'll be right back.

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consumer weak part of the market dow down about 180 points. shares of retailer five below especially falling hard trading today, posting, excuse me, a mixed fourth quarter the company outlining a new long-term plan at investor day calling it a triple-double

with us now five below president and ceo joel anderson. fresh off those announcement joel good to have you here stock moves on the outlook you gave for first quarter, for zero to negative komps weaker than expected earnings guidance what are you seeing coming ahead? >> today was all about our investor day, outlining, as you said, the triple-double. some of the is looking at first quarter last year's stimulus behind us in the next three, four weeks and the year gets better moving on we have opportunity to triple store count in the u.s. and more than double sales and bottom line in the next four years. >> what kind of growth is embedded in that five-year plan? in terms of comp and growth

rate >> another area we spent a lot of time on in fact, we actually decreased our comp his totoric lis algorithm, we expect to be more in the three to five percent comp range also we plan to open about 400 stores in the next two years, and about 600 stores in '24 and '25 for a total of 1,000 stores over the last four years translates into about 20% annual store growth we are still growing very fast. >> two-year nail you're known for the low prices. now that we're in such an inflationary environment what has that meant for prices in your store and where they go from here? >> look, we've had some increases. right no if you're in our store it's all about easter. i'm holding an easter basket you can still fill for $5 or $6. incredible value

fun things like peeps for $1.25. and grass and eggs for $1. still an incredible amount of value here in five below, and look, we've seen in the past whenever there's been an economic setback for the customer or inflation, they look for value. we've got incredible value at five below right now. >> what about shortages? facing issues amerchandise shortages, even worker shortages. is that resolved or resolving? >> look, i think the worst of it, sara, is behind us we see the supply chain continuing to get better throughout the year here and as far as workers go, look, we hire a lot of 16 and 17-year-olds we're the place to go for your first job. i think that's been a real asset for us if you look for workers to come in i'm not saying it's easy but we have done a pretty good job of overcoming. >> finally, talk to me about categories what is strong and what needs

some help? given the kind of environment that we are in right now consumers are dealing with higher food and gas prices >> yeah. look, i mean, we have eight worlds, eight different categories you're standing with me right now in our pembroke pines, florida, store five behind me prototype. a lot of amazing categories in there from room to tech to easter bunnies, incredible value. you know, we've been able to bring those to all of our customers really looking for value across a whole new segment nap new and now section, all about easter all about spring and incredible value there. >> got it. seeing a lot with you joel thank you for the tour joel anderson, five below. >> thanks for having me sara a great store and good to see you. >> you, too. the company's first-ever investor day. still ahead, weighing in on omheonet sell-off and signals

fr t bd market and the fed. down 161 just off session lows s&p down about 0.8 of 1% we'll be right back. [sound of helicopter blades] ugh... they found me. ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this. people have their money just sitting around doing nothing... that's bad, they shouldn't do that. they're getting crushed by inflation. well, i feel for them. they're taking financial advice from memes. [baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ good to have you back, old friend. yeah, eyes on the road, benny. welcome to a new chapter in investing. [ding] e*trade now from morgan stanley.

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welcome back stocksed upper pressure head spoog the close. a little higher, dow down 146 or so check out today's top search tickers on cnbc.com. top of the list, 10-year note. followed by tesla. rh, mentioned macro volatility, fed, name check, janet yellen, jay powell, and apple breaks a arieing streak and two year ten

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rally. dow and s&p 500 lower first time in ten days. come back the last few moments but declines across the board especially for nasdaq. joining us, a chief market strategist what do you think today is a pause in the buying action that will resume higher or was that it? >> no, sara. i can't, trying to put the last week or two, and then a few weeks before that, and pretty difficult i think for anyone to put together a fairly hawkish fed message a curve yield moving faster than most people in the federal reserve would imagine. really strong housing data a great labor market a good hp. everybody's talking recession but the two most important markets, labor and housing look like they're on fire it's a confusing time, confusing time with fed policy and macro

and positioning definitely got over sold. a little bounce. maybe this is it and we get to dodge back into a, maybe a 4,600 range instead of racing back up to the unchange and the year. >> i'm asking on the stock market can stocks rally if the yield curve inverts? we get that recessionary signal. and earnings decline you mentioned labor market a lagging indicator. housing, yes holding up, but showing signs of fading home builders down more than 20% in the last month, at least this year >> home build leers definitely taking a beating and costs coming through and coming off an incredible run look around in any anecdotal stories it's certainly houses scooped up everywhere, left, right and center i think, sara, come back to my main premise for the year, which

is a year where the fed withdraws accommodation. choppy it's going to be messy going to have a fight between those that it think the fed's losing credibility thversus thoe that -- interesting thing there is i think the maintaining or -- much more compelling for inflations, inflationary -- it's not a year we're got a run up side i don't see that more important, the down side while -- it could go more aggressive like it did earlier in the year. there's a lot of other nice -- kind of -- tail winds to the market that probably are not as bad as some appear. >> to your exact point, david. cnbc came out today with delivering alpha investor survey investors, strategists,s cnbc,

market risk second quarter and beyond misstep from the fed most popular response a question whether this signals the fed will go too far with hiking rates, and send us into recession or the other misstep don't do enough on inflation what do you think about the risk to the market? >> sara, i bet if you and i were sitting tha room with jay powell and he knew nothing more would come out of it, a top -- no discussion points whatever brought out and we said, look, you could get inflation down towards 2% by end of 2023 but need a small recession, couple of quarters, negative growth around 1%. we just had over 5% growth in the last year. i think we take that in a heartbeat. yeah. >> be cool with it >> yeah. bottom line is, that a small recession is certainly within the realm of possibility for the fed. a modest one something i think they might

even prefer to have, if it meant getting inflation back towards that 2% level faster i think 7.9 number them scared, quite nervoused. and even if it drops because of the comps in kw 2. the comps in kw 3, q3, go back up and a tough year to get that inflation number down. all of that hawkishness is there. hasn't gone way. could make a mistake or actually mistake of a small recession is exactly what we need, then we have too much medicine in 2021 and 2020 going through darkest days of the pandemic the nature of the beast. >> for now talking about a soft landing instead. david, thank you check back in before we get to the close. hang tight. and apple. saying the company working on a prop to bring financial services in-house including payment

processing, risk assessment or lending and credit checks. fintech companieses block, paypal dipping lower on this report with us, senior research analyst and covers a lot of fintech companies. dan, how big a threat is this to them >> thanks for having me on the show historically i've seen this over and over again every time there's a news about apple entering something in payment, take a dip and ends up being a buying opportunity fundamentals of these stocks don't change probably more of the samenow right? seen that with, go back here remember when apple went into the form factor, right they're going to do merchant acquiring. square was down and now up again big. you've seen the pattern before i expect this to be the same thing now. >> so sounds like you like your space, and cover all sorts of names from mastercard, paypal, robinhood, sofi. positioned to do well in the second half.

what do earnings expectations look like relative to where valuations stand because this group has been beat up pretty hard with some recent worries about the consumer, and valuations >> right a great question i think we've actually done a study of hundreds of stocks including like about 100 payment stocks you're seeing that the growth for the two-year growth in payment specifically the most attractive pretty much across all tech names we've looked at in terms of those subsectors i think the payment space is extremely well positioned to continue to see the rally that we're seeing now the last two weeks or so into the second half i think that, valuations matter. but upward revision in estimates matter more. that's what year seeing in payments second half what's your favorite >> block, people call it now a deep dive into different

building blocks of cash apps 22% upside current consensus on the cash app analysts may 15th a huge catalyst and told you everything you need to know inthat note super bold on block. >> got it. quite like it today. down 5%. dan, thank you for joining us on the payment stock. at cnbc's healthy return conference today inflation impact on the consumer a big topic. take a listen. >> we've seen volatility in the consumer demand, but we continue to see a very solid consumer business coming through, and we continue to try to deliver what is best for consumers. and we continue to try to mitigate our cost increases by including our own efficiency and in cases price increases overall we are bullish about potential for our consumer health business, and about ow ability to navigate the inflationary pressures in a way that is optimal for consumers.

>> find more of the healthy conference on cnbc now p&g stock under pressure, jpmorgan downgraded it to neutral and headwinds from inflation. joining us, jpmorgan equity research analyst doctor good to see you. the call stood out numbers coming down with rising cost and inflation most of your colleagues liked policy and procedures the best usually navigates headwinds than some others. why gdowngrade it today >> thank you liking it for years, from 2018 like relatively but don't feel the one relative basis valuation standpoint warrants further re-rating on the stock and we like names more exposed

now to reopening and underlying trends lie estee lauder and coca-cola. >> why because they haven't seen full benefit of reopening of economies and airports and stadiums and that sort of thing? >> yeah. 2 no i think even proctor seeing some benefit from some categories like deodorant, grooming, shaving, also beauty not the same level that we are going to see probably for estee and coca-cola. case of coca-cola 5% revenue in basically on premises. that's the reason why we like it better on a relative basis >> which is basically out of the house. who has pricing power and who doesn't? a. great question. coke is one example has a lot of pricing power. proctor also has a lot of pricing power. not the reason why we took a pause here on a relative basis the stock's

trading at a multiple relative to history three terms more expensive on basis than peers, and we see, like, more up side for names like estee, still benefiting from consumption away from home, and, therefore, we see more there. >> and valuations? consumer staples only down 1.5% this year, because we've seen the market volatility and increased recession concerns naturally staples are a place to hide a place to go not as good as utilities but still working out. what has that done to valuations >> again, great question, because if you think about the premiums hpc widened premiums around 28% higher than the s&p and average in the last five years and last ten years about 20%. so it has widened. it has to do also with the e

getting because of the cost pressures. some denominator effect there. we like, again, beverages are not as expensive on a relative basis to the s&p the reason why we like beverages better and also benefit more than the hpc names. >> lots of good information. thank you very much. from jpmorgan. consumer staples and stocks low per on a tear lately posting biggest monthly gain more than a year. investors optimistic about possibility of federal cannabis legalization that process taking a big step forward today. the house rules committee holding a hearing on a bill that would decriminalize cannabis at the federal level. frank joining us with more really going to happen this time even if it passes the house, whats in the senate? >> know what the debate today at the house rules committee and eventual vote expected to happen friday is both a combination of

expected to be symbolic and insightful on this follow me. the act decriminalizing cannabis and open up banking package good items passes from the rules committee to full house for a vote stalled in senate, you mentioned. cowen analyst jared cyberg and other industry experts watching the debate, actual vote, seeing how many gop congresspeople vote yes or speak in favor of cannabis legalization pap general thought flip from democrat to problem-controlled next year with standard democrat control under that scenario republican-controlled house come up with a cannabis legalization bill palatable and could pass the next session, but this year generally considered dead on arrival when it comes to cannabis reform according to most calculations you need ten gop senators voting in favor of this bill to avoid a filibuster. >> talk to me, frank, about the

stock? has it just been on hopes of movements in congress? for the u.s. is it deal consolidation canadian fundamentals? what's moving these stocks they've been so wild especially for retail investors. >> and definitely high hopes a lot of hope. but hasn't really been a meaningful path forward so far you have to remember, these are giant industries here in the u.s. cannabis at $30 billion this year. canada, different projections, somewhere between $4 billion, $5 billion. very big industries with potential to be bigger with legalization the stocks that have biggest upside here are u.s. stocks. called multistate operators or msos have their own etf msos, while mostly canadian operators in the mjtf has seen the biggest gains. a lot of cases people getting excited about canadian operators on major exchanges, better capitalized. in general u.s. operators have a bigger moat. state licenses already when meaningful reform they will

have a leg up to be able to bank, borrow money at much better rates than in the past. scale up their businesses faster generally the canadian operators have to go through some type of regulation, regulatory process to enter the u.s. market >> got it. frank holland, thank you learned a lot there on the pot stock. and david bring you back on markets. seeing improvement last few minutes. staples, health care, utilities. get the fed preferred inflation gauge tomorrow i think get jobs friday. what are some of the big questions out there? because feels like the fed members have been very vocal including fed chair powell what their mission is now what they're willing to do about it what are the questions that could sway the market and in one direction or the other >> always important to see the pc data. what the fed watches headline an ugly varnish on

their record over the last two years. even if it comes in a little better than expected i don't expect rhetoric on inflation i think they want to be strong not untoward voelker and labeled as arthur burns or bill martin it's a very strong maneuver by jay and i think keep up with it and has every reason to given where we sit in the marketplace. wait for qt, higher rates. see how the market reacts to all of that over the coming quarters, but i'm reasonably optimistic we're not going to get anything too tough even if we good recession, a pretty mild one and something may be lethargic in the long run. >> got your outluke. what do you think it means for bonds? seeing buying. down to 2.35 where does that go >> my path is this they're going to jack short

rates up and long end stay or go lower. invert this thing. end of year, sick of pushing short rates up move the balance sheet faster and going to start to accelerate the way they move the balance sheet lower through assets sales or a faster, a faster issue -- for investment the market, happy about that i like being an outlier. long end definitely in their cross hairs and the fact it's not going up in yield is going to frustrate them causing pivots towards echnd of the year how te move rates fun thing to watch the curve. >> got it. thank you very much. from jefferies, chief market strategist. crude oil up 3% heading into the bell s&p 500 down 0.7 of 1%

off the lows consumer discretionaries biggest drag dow down about 91 points again, recovering here heading into the close a pattern we've seen closing session highs. looks like we'll be lower, not as low as earlier. united health adding most to the dow. home depot subjecting the most nasdaq worse performer of the big three. does for me on "closing bell" subpoena a good evening, everyone now to scott and "overtime." welcome to "overtime." i'm scott wapner just heard the bell. we are just getting started here in a moment joined high "halftime"'s josh brown with his read on the market state of the rally, whether it is running out of gas, simply taking a breather. welcome in fund strategist research tom who put ow a new note on stocks welcome back good to see you. >> good to see you, scott. >> you say stocks are