good morning u.s. officials now saying that top russian officials are avoiding giving putin bad news about the invasion of ukraine and the extent of damage to russia's economy details straight ahead. crude prices falling ahead of today's opec meeting. new reports say the biden administration is considering a plan for at least 1 million barrels of oil a day from the reserve. and apple shares fell yesterday ending the 11-day winning streak market cap is still within $3 trillion it is thursday, march 31st, 2022 last day of march. job earnings tomorrow and april

f fool's day tomorrow. "squawk box" starts now. good morning welcome to ""squawk box" here o cnbc let's look at what is happening with the equity futures at this hour you see things are relatively flat dow down 9 points. s&p up 4.5 nasdaq up 58 this comes after a down day for the markets yesterday which is rare you had a long streak over the last week or two yesterday, nasdaq was off 1.2% it is the last trading day of the quarter. if you wonder where we are quarter to date, the dow for the quarter, down 3% s&p down 3.4%.

nasdaq for the quarter, down 7.7% the worst quarter since the beginning of the pandemic. it makes you pay attention to stocks over the last few weeks, we have seen action. let's look at the treasury market you see the 10-year at this point is yielding 2.325% that yield has come back down. 2-year at 2.28%. 5-year at 2.4% all that talk about the yield inversion and 2/10 year hasn't happened it came within a breath. >> you got to be impressed with the stand that equity is near the low given the news back drop fed raising rates. inflation where it is. the situation in ukraine which every time we think it might be better, it never really seems

like it is you remember how many times there is 250,000 drotroops we will not invade nothing you hear can you take stock in >> those are questions raised today. >> i know. i'll read the story. at this point, i wish we all didn't have to try to get into this guy's head. we are anything is possible he could have known right from the start he only wanted the energy or maybe he decided after it wasn't going well and i'll settle for the bridge. we are all arm-chair russia experts. then everybody has an opinion. who knows? i don't know if we should ind indulge. here is what is going on to the latest on russia's invasion of ukraine. this is newly classified u.s. intelligence it indicates that putin feels he was misled, perhaps, by military leaders who did not tell him key

he details about the botched invasion of ukraine because, really they feared angering him nobody wants to get poisoned or lose their skin. the u.s. believes putin is being misinformed by his advisers by how badly the russian military is performing and how the russian economy is crippled by the sanctions. meantime, russia's claim it would limit military operations. kyiv is in a step to negotiations which is false. russian forces hit targets around the capital yesterday and the kremlin spokesperson walked back claims of the cease-fire talks which helped the markets the last couple days the russian negotiator said was happening. less than 24 hours earlier the west seems to balk of a nato-light or security guarantees for ukraine

the reason i was saying this in my mind. can you imagine being the guy you have to tell him can you imagine being the guy to give vladimir putin bad news >> no, he surrounds himself with yes men. >> it was about a month ago and i think one of his senior military officials barely questioned something he said or rationale. you could see the guy. putin was over there saying what did you say. what are you saying? he grilled him the guy quickly backtracked. of course people are not going to tell him things are going badly. would you? >> you have people who don't want to tell bosses bad news >> far less than vladimir putin. >> far less infractions. two things on this richard engel. i don't know if you saw nbc's richard engel. he was behind the lines with

ukrainian forces it looked like they were making advances they pushed russians out of the camp with 120 military members fled he said now you can hear during his report, the live report, you could hear outgoing shells from the ukraine side ukrainians are not stopping. they are pushing back heavily to make sure they have a better hand in the negotiations they continue to push them back. >> the russian troops are not putin. they are young men that were told one thing they all have mothers -- i don't know what the rations are like in terms of food and equipment and everything else they need. they can have really poor morale apparently, we hear that and maybe not. maybe they are doing this for a reason sort of the rope-a-dope strategy >> the thing i point out is the u.s. intelligence has been good

from the very beginning when they were talking about invasion coming and invasion imminent that foiled russia's chances and putin's chances of coming in unsuspected and gave ukrainians time to plan and the u.s. intelligence has been real ly good at getting out and saying don't believe what you hear. >> we are engaging in all of the same stuff every article i read was he really surprised by everything it goes over everything or was it always in the back of his mind to end up with the eastern side and corridor with crimea and get the energy rich area. >> he is being opportunistic he looks at the best hand at any point. >> maybe we're cnbc should we just not do this at all? >> maybe, except there is so much riding on it. >> it effects the fed and supply

chain and inflation. >> globe in the meantime, the biden administration is expected to lift the pandemic restriction on immigration that has been in place the last two years that is set to take effect in may. it would restore the rights of migrants to request asylum in the united states just as they did before the pandemic. it could double the migrants surging to the united states from mexico. border officials are asked the restriction to expel undocumented migrants. steve liesman pointed out if you get asylum once you're here. >> still not legal people who do go through the legal system we don't have room for 2 million people to take care of when they get in the facilities down there. >> you have seen it overwhelmed. >> necethey are overwhelmed they don't have facilities or

funding. they don't have what they need it will be a crisis and it could be double the crisis i don't understand >> the lifting >> no. i don't understand watching shares of tesla company extending suspension of production at the shanghai factory by one more day over the covid-19 lockdown. according to reports the stoppage at the plant will last until tomorrow. the report says tesla is telling all employees to stay home and abide by government orders the shanghai plant is the first outside of the u.s. for tesla and responsible for half of the company output >> that is not what they told them when california said stay home >> elon is pushing back. this is going to get interesting. >> yes >> for the s.e.c >> what did he call it asked for a bad word >> no, it was a bad word it wasn't.

i forget i'll go find it. >> find out. coming up, crude prices falling over reports that the biden administration could release more oil from the strategic reserve. reaction and analysis. i don't know if we care how brian's reacting we will see. maybe i will ask him shock. di dismay happiness? >> investors >> oh, not brian i want to get, brian, get a good facial expression ready. brian sullivan's reaction to this news. as we head to break, here is a look at cruise stocks. cdc dropped the covid health warning. becky, when are you going? >> february 30th >> of? >> never >> near 4000 >> february 30th >> oh, yeah. february 30th. you are watching "squawk box"

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strategic petroleum reserve. this news comes as opec leaders are set to meet an hour from now. brian sullivan, i don't know if you were listening is that your reaction shot that looked like a puzzled shot. we said earlier we would have brian sullivan's reaction and i was going to let you practice with the really -- that's a goo expression yeah, i get it i don't know if it will help isn't 1 million all we need? it will help there's a reaction shot. >> what is that scream painting? >> home alone. >> muench. von muench hausen. >> does that help with the

shortfall? >> we silwill see how big the shortfall is well still have russian oil at sea on the way to america. right now. the 45-day window. more ships were rushed in and loaded and on the way here back to the news two big stories in oil first, as you noted president biden expected to release 1 million barrels a diffay that would be carry the one. 180 million barrels. that would be the biggest ever release of oil goldman sachs out with a note saying yes, this might help blunt rising prices in the near-term, but not the deficit they see coming for years and raise oil demand if prices fall. if it works and prices go down, people may drive more. also today, opec and opec plus are meeting.

expect another fast one. the last one took less than 20 minutes. they are rubber stamping the previous deal to raise output by 400,000 barrels a day. this should be 430,000 that is a slight rise on their quota as a technicality of 30,000 barrels if you see that number, that's why. a lot of questions surrounding opec right now i wish we were there in vienna when do the saudis react and make unilateral increase does uae cave to pressure? secretary of state met with them in morocco do they raise output does the relationship in opec plus hold up it appears it will opec trying to take a no politics approach to the market. guys, gas prices are still higher averaging $4.25 a gallon 50% higher from a year ago

i know the president will speak today, joe, and blame everything on putin i will say this. the reality is and i'll post a chart. i'll be back on 8:00 the price of oil is only a couple dollars higher than two months before putin invaded ukraine. price was up 50% before anybody was talking russia and putin >> we saw oil prices come down recently on perhaps an easing of tensions that may not be the case it is already down and you have this news. brian, correct me if i'm wrong opec plus. is that the streaming service that opec launched recently? i hear it is not doing well.

>> it is $6.99 a month you can get it for $36 if you subscribe annually or just subscribe and cancel subscribe, watch all your shows in a week, cancel and repeat in six months a great business model he says eyes rolling >> thanks, brian thank you. nobody needs opec plus. >> it's early. >> it is it is early. people are scratching their heads. i know it is not a streaming service. never mind thanks, brian. see you later. >> i know what you are talking about. yes. when we come back, fallout from the supply chain crisis and inflation pressures. we highlighted issues in november before the russian invasion of ukraine up ended the

market for grain it is not just grain, but energy and things they import and the corks made in ukraine. he will join us with an update as we head to break, check out the rise of the price of corn in the last six months. these are the prices that will be hitting all kinds of things you may not coidnser we'll talk about a lot of this when we come back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit airddifference.com d. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

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each day looks different than the last. but whatever work becomes, the servicenow platform will make it just, flow. whether it's finding new ways to help you serve your customers, orchestrating a safe return to the office... wait. an office? what's an office? ...or solving a workplace challenge that's yet to come. wherever the new world of work takes your business, the world works with servicenow. russia's war in ukraine is hurting many supply chains one is the liquor business

the global alcohol industry relies on russia and ukraine for glass, cork and wood for barrels. joining us to talk more about it is joe malioka he is the ceo of chatham imports. he said they have not felt this pressure since world war ii. wheat. >> wheat >> yes >> maybe they are getting into the business >> a booming wheat industry. coming under pressure. >> it may be a better business than the liquor industry >> eventually. >> joe, i know the human toll is the most important thing coming out of ukraine obviously, the world is feeling the impact the idea this is the biggest impact you have seen since world war ii on grain. explain that >> it really is -- thank you for having me on i really have never seen anything like this during my

career it is, i think, the biggest impact on the industry since world war ii the conflict really has exacerbated the ply supply chaid inflation pressure the silver lining to all of this is spirit companies seem to be able to take price successfully and make a stronger brand and industry it is the most challenging time i have seen. the supply chain in the industry is global now and i never realized until a few weeks ago that corks were an important import products from ukraine i never realized that europe supplies barley. they have two malting plants in the ukraine. it had a big effect.

we could not get corks from ukraine, we had to scramble and got them from argentina. >> what cost increase are we talking about p? what have you seen with the input costs in the last six months >> i have to really take a look at the past six months for example, corn is the largest ingredient or grain we use to make bourbon on the chicago board of trade, if you compare the price of the bushel of corn in january of 2020 to the price of the bushel of corn now, it has gone up 91% since january of 2020. t biggest grain we use just flashed up the russia and ukraine account for 30% of global wheat this is just a tragic conflict which has a tremendous humanitarian toll. that effects the industry.

one of the big concerns for distillers right now is concern with wheat prices shooting up, since wheat is an important crop around the world, that farmers will replace barley and rye with the wheat prices which are up. that may lead to further shortages for the industry. >> no jt just the grains, but yu holding company imports a lot of wine pinot grigio what happened there? >> it has been tremendous. we import pinot from italy the winery said once the conflict started their energy costs went up 50% at the winery. i don't doubt that from all i read it used to be bring 40-foot

container of wine from italy to the east coast of the u.s. used to be $3,300 per container now it is $7,000 that is 112% increase. it is enormous again, inflation pressure are not just on spirits, but wine and every industry >> you said at the beginning at this point you can raise prices. what have you seen in terms of price increases? how is the consumer tolerating it >> again, i think in general, there seems to be enough money around in the u.s. and most of the world. we export to 65 countries. there seems to be enough money around people also have wage increases. there seems in general to be enough money to absorb the price increase the key thing is the strong

companies in the industry with strong brands are able to take price and have been taking price successfully again, because of the supply chain, some of the biggest brands in the industry have been out for a while because of glass. dp glass is a big issue at this point. i learned new terms that i don't like very much i've learned what freight surcharge is as of april 1st, we will have a 15% energy surcharge from our glass supplier on top of the freight surcharge. >> joe, thank you for coming on today. it gives us insight into the higher commodity prices. what it means to the bottom line we appreciate it >> thank you so much >> thank you coming up, pollster frank luntz will join us with data on how americans feel about president biden's proposed

billionaire tax. and later, walgreens is set to report around 7:00 a.m. eastern. we will bring ayou the numbers. as we head to break, a look at the s&p 500 winners and losers >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure thing epic so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we are live from nasdaq market center in times square dow is unchanged down by less than a point. billionaire leon cooperman calling the proposed tax on billionaires, his words, stupid and probably illegal elizabeth warren responding yesterday. leon, before the tears start

streaming down your face again billionaires pay less taxes than teachers and nurses. this levels the playing field for a fighting chance. joining us to discuss the tax and how peamericans feel about e proposal is frank luntz. leon cooperman signed the giving pledge he is giving everything away do you think when a bureaucrat and how elon musk paid $1 billion in taxes last year does this play in peoria so something like that still plays, frank what do your polls say >> it is an issue of what people

prioritize they prioritize cutting waste in washington spending. lowering inflation they prioritize ending american independence not ducking the question i'm reframing it the public is clear about this tax policy is less important to the people today than it has been in any time i have been doing polling. in fact, they see and they seek different answers than simply raising taxes. make no mistake. billionaires are not as respected as they were ten years ago or appreciated i'll say the wealthy that being said, if taxes do up on businesses, that is not the issue to the public. how do you lower my day-to-day costs and raising taxes, even on the wealthy, the average american thinks eventually it will filter down to them

>> frank, let's ask you this whether the mood in the country has evolved or your mood has evolved? i remember a lot of things and sometimes i wish i didn't remember as much as i do remember during the debates when senator warren was bashing capitalism and income inn equality. you said this will play well with the american public she has a chance my take was that you were wrong and americans still love the notion of being able to make it big in this country. the old bono quote someone in his country up on a big hill and mansion says i want to get that guy. in this country, it is i want to be that guy. i didn't agree with you. now does it still play does that still play

that zeitgeist >> remember, we are not the same country before covid we are not the same country before january 6th we've changed so much in the last 24 months in some ways it is positive, in some ways it is not. when it comes to taxes, it is still a lower priority for people than it is to affect their day-to-day lives which is what inflation is godoing. it is impacting fuel and food. things that people consume that is significant. >> frank, we got the -- we got the adults back in charge. the bad orange man is gone now the new by is at 30% hasn't that changed? >> look at the chart 62% of democrats think taxes are too high 78% are republicans. these are significant numbers.

if you simply ask the question should we raise taxes on the w wealthy, the public does say yes. what is interesting, they are opposed to the death tax they think it is unfair. opposed to confiscation of taxes. the average person believes that if you and right there among democrats. when you say taxing the wealthy, democrats say we are not taxing them enough. when you ask people what is the proper tax rate for any individual, it comes somewhere between 25% and 33%. between 1/4 and 1/3 of their income when people in most states are paying 50% of the highest bracket and paying 50% in federal, state and local taxes american people, clear majority say that's too much. the challenge -- go ahead. >> frank, i think on that point, this is a messaging situation.

we read that tweet from elizabeth warren where she called it a billionaire income tax. this is taxing unrealized gains. that is a wealth tax i think they may win on the messaging because it is complicating to think through the things even if you don't think all that much of billionaires or somebody who makes $100 million which is where this kicks in. the idea of taxing unrealized gains is a new step. that's not a new income tax sdptax. >> that frightens people how much information the government has to collect and who will value this? the poainting or baseball cards are worth x, y or z? this is a concerning tax to people i go back to my initial comment here when you ask people what matters most, it is not raising taxes on

the wealthy. it's stopping inflation. it is stopping american dependence on oil and energy and foreign governments. it is addressing quality of life issues democrats have found a temporarily positive talking point. in the long term, they will talk about this and i'll tell you right now. march 31st, 2022, if they use this going into the election, they will lose congress. this is not the priority of the american people. >> the president, 4% is not what republicans wanted for defense, but it is a pretty good bump that seems like he is listening or at least changing some of the view i don't know if the fossil fuel issue and whether that moderates what we have seen with the biden administration and stance they had. i don't think i'm allowed to say aoc. if someone says aoc, then we

have -- the entire political class has a problem with her or something. she talks a lot. i am going to say. she says that the answer for democrats is they're not nearly far left enough. they will lose the election in november if they don't go much further left frank, i just think that is patently ridiculous. i think most americans are looking at the current center of gravity for the progressive wing of the party and they think it is just absolutely crazy maybe it plays on two coasts echo chambers and bubbles where normal people look at that and say you're kidding this is the issue you are running on >> there is a simple answer to this not left or right. not republican or democrat not old or new not progressive or conservative. >> why

>> it is quality of life it is day-to-day >> it's cultural >> are you making my life easier culture is part of that. culture is raising your kids culture is functioning in your neighborhoods. culture is feeling safe and secure quality of life is the key attribute in 2022. it will determine who wins congress which ever party has the advantage on the day-to-day existence. how much things cost and how far you have to get to work? if you pay your bills? if you feel safe and secure in the neighborhood or on the way to work? these issues are determined and more americans are reconsidering their votes and partisanship if aoc dominates the democratic party, they will win big in new york, new jersey and northeast and they will get slaughtered across the rest of the country i know modern democrats are

realizing this and scared as well about the direction of the party. second, it requires the republicans not to wage an ideological battle it requires them to raise a battle to rage a battle of responsibility what is the responsible approach to spending? what is the responsible approach to taxes if the republicans get on message about acting responsibly, they will have the advantage in the fall because the progressives are not >> i just -- our producer is funny. i can't say. i said aoc twice if i say it a third time, apparently, something can happen like beetlejuice or something. i did say it a third time. >> no place like home three times? >> something frank, what is your prediction what month is it

is it april yet? >> tomorrow. >> tomorrow. what is november we have six or seven months until the election the american public is fickle. if it were held today, what would you characterize today a red advantage? a red wave red tsunami? we had predictions of blue tsunamis that did not happen anything can happen between now and november where are we right now would you say? >> i was on your show and talked about joe biden winning and within the exact day and time. you were doing the interview in 2022, if the election were held today, republicans would win the house and narrowly lose the senate this is the big issue right now. what role would trump play in the senate elections is he backing the most popular candidates is he backing the people with

the greatest shot of winning most importantly, are they focused on the issues that really matter or are these republican candidates talking about an election that is now 17 months ago if they are focused on the future, they are going to win the house. they could win the senate. if the elections were held today, no, they he wowould not. it would be a 51/49 democratic victory if it were held today. >> how many seats in the house 30, 40, 50 seats >> that realigns with the redistricting. a 25 to 30 seat republican advantage. this makes what happens essential. are you communicating what voters want to hear about? raising taxes on the rich isn't doing that focus on prices and costs and day-to-day affordability that is how you win the majority

in 2022. >> okay, frank thanks what's the next thing you will poll people on this is pretty good stuff. you can get a lot of red meat from this, i think >> it is the intersection of the environment, energy and economy. these are tough decisions. i'm in hawaii right now. i don't know if i'm labeled on the screen how to develop more energy that is renewable and dependable. how you keep prices down. >> frank, you talk about energy important and prices is the biden administration's move to release more oil from the spr play into it >> it does play into it. it will drive the environmentalists nuts it will play for consumers who cannot afford $5 or $6 a gallon gas. >> frank, thank you. great to see you when we come back, we will

get kyle bass' take on oil we will have his take on the economy and much more. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the professionals gateway to the world's markets.

welcome back u.s. equity futures meanderring. nasdaq has been positive most of the morning. >> i like how you say that meandering >> the markets kind of a happier mood in a cup of weeks now you would think, and not a lot of wonderful things are happening in the world, but the market has at least stabilized and has found some support and rates are so low anyway. >> when you hear about the massive inflationary hits like when we were just talking to the distiller about 17, 18% increase in grains. >> we haven't really felt that >> that's coming and that's a big challenge. to this point the consumer has been willing to pay up, but we'll see if that tones.

>> crude prices will perhaps help the inflation outlook, because cruise is down today, almost 6% for ice brent. energy companies losses of 1 and 2% coming up apple slide yesterday snapping the longest losing streak since 2003 >> now we just have to sing them >> now we have to sing them. the company still within striking distance of a $3 trillion market cap. we'll have more on that next "squawk box" coming right back throwing things at me? look, as cfo it's my job to be ready for whatever's next. that's why i have my finance team, randomly hurl things at me. it's also why we use workday. it gives us insights, so we quickly pivot our strategy, people, planning, you name it. sorry, sir.

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apple shares dipped yesterday ending an 11-session winning streak its longest in nearly 20 years for the month apple shares up about 7.5% companies within reach of a $3 trillion market cap to get their shares needed to hit $183. it won't be the first time it was in the $3 trillion club, though it achieved that briefly back on january 3rd. joining us talk about what's next let's bring in the cio and ceo of lafler tingler and investments. it's good to see you this morning. >> thank you >> i don't know if we've found a song of 2003 >> the first cut is the deepest by sheryl crow

>> okay, i know that one you were a huge apple shareholder for a long time. it can make anybody's career obviously but that was a great call have you lightened up at all, and if you did do you regret it? >> yes, we have lightened up and of course i regret it. >> it's amazing. >> yeah, this is shocking but i found some talking points i wrote in may for power lunch in 2016 and that was a period everyone was doubting tim cooke the china consumer was slowing but of course that was exactly when you wanted to make the bet on services and make the bet on tim cooke. the stock is up 800% we began selling in 2020 and continued in 2021 and we're down

now to about 3% holding across our large cap equity portfolios. >> and we're not flying around in an apple autonomous car plane watching an apple tv set we're not doing any of those things and what was that last guy's name, steve something? it's not like we think of steve jobs every -- and how would you like to follow steve jobs? i'd just give up on day one and tim cook did not do that, and now he is a doegs i don't know if you'd say exceeded steve jobs but he certainly was up to the job, nopun intended. >> absolutely. and yet continues to be underestimated and i think that is the great strength of the company in many ways he's managed china and

negativeigated that roadblock very nicely. the innovation that was claimed not to be there is still in the company. and so there's a lot of levers still to pull. you know, the announcement yesterday about payments they're going to bring a lot about in-house, the sc came out of the gate super strong, got another super cycle with the 14. so there's a lot to love about the company. when we were buying it the yield was almost 3%. it's now down to 0.5%. so a lot of the good news is baked in, but i still think the company has tremendous opportunity, and cook's been an incredible ceo for sure. >> yeah. so the ecosystem just gets expanded, and it occupies a large part of my life obviously between my phone and my movies on apple tv and even make the movies that i watch, which is -- does there need to be a wow

moment and it probably will be. if anybody's going to do it you figure apple could still innovate into a whole new area but they don't necessarily need to justify $3 trillion >> i agree with that completely. i think the biggest worry is china. they get 14% of their revenues from china you never know what's going to happen with the current regime and gained 300 basis points in market share in china the last year the stock is still up. you keep hearing people say rising interest rates and rising

inflation and bad for technology companies. you know how long i've been doing this and that's simply not the case, and the digital transformation is well in its early stages it's not over. it's not going to outperform every month or every minute but it's got returns >> so apple -- you're spending a lot on innovation. you've got a great work force but you don't necessarily need to add anyone. you look around but may not want to do an acquisition, is there any investment than your own stock? would the stock be where it is right now if they'd not done the buyback? was that a positive corporate strategy that wasn't evil and self-serving >> yeah, i think it is they have raised the dividend about 10%, 5% annually

>> they should obviously be in a position to decide should i issue stock or buyback stock >> by the way, any executive who sold shares -- >> sold way too soon but they've got three days on a point advantage they did it when they did the buyback >> it's not like they're making money off this or manipulating somebody doing this. >> all right, nancy taylor, good to see you again we look exactly the same, younger. >> that is time. it is just after 7:00 on the east coast and you're watching

"squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today. watching the futures and so far this morning not a huge amount of movement. the dow is down by about 22 points dow component walgreens just reporting so let's get over to bertha coombs. >> dow jones beatingren revenues of 33.8 billion versus expectations walgreens administered nearly 12 million vaccines in the quarter and more than 6.5 million tests. prescriptions were up 4.7% year over year. on a net basis operating income actually fell from a year ago due to increase in investments and things like fufilament

centers and expansion of village md critics on the retail side u.s. sales rose 14.7% u.k. sales were up 22%, though in a release they're continuing, quote, the strategic review of boots. ie, they're still looking to sell looks like. on both sides the brewer told me supply is improving but inflation is a big challenge >> supply chain is improving so we're seeing some improvement there. i'd love to see a little more work on is what we're doing with inflation. we're, unfortunately, having to pass some of that onto the customer, but we're also looking at ways to reduce our costs and pass that onto really offset what we're seeing in inflation

>> even with those headwind operating margins hopped estimates at 5.2%. becky, you can see shares there are moving higher there here in extended hours >> you know, watching some of these things as brewers putting greater emphasis on walgreens health as the company is turning through some of these things, are they considering the idea of stopping selling tobacco we just heard that from walmart. cvs did that >> exactly cvs did it back in 2014, and that's exactly what i asked as they're really focusing on health. i asked brewer that during our healthy returns conference here's what she said can walgreens help to sell cigarettes >> that is something i'm permly looking at i think that is something you'll hear us talk about >> it is one of those things

some shareholders had been asking for a while >> absolutely. i hear them. >> you know, the interesting thing in new york city since 2019 they haven't been allowed to sell cigarettes in their stores and they report numbers ex-tobacco and it sounds to me like they're leaning on stopping >> it does she seems to give you a pretty clear signal on which direction they're headed if cha can't be sold in w walgreens, cvs or walmart you're running out of pretty important points for reaching your customers, too >> leave that shelve space open. >> they're shrinking the shelve space because they're leaving more space for the primary care. >> maybe funny cigarettes are coming >> it is interesting >> leave that shelf space open

we can put it right here it's in front of the federal government again >> i know. they're considering it right now. bertha, thank you. and i think that was a pretty heavy hint of which direction they're leaning on that. good to see you, thank you >> speaking of whacky tobacky, steve liesman -- just kidding, steeb. just kidding the markets are waiting to see -- he's a huge grateful dead fan. no, it doesn't not currently -- anyway, orchestrating a soph landing for the economy but recent fed speak is not showing any signs of real confidence steve liesman joins us now maybe i'm projecting again i've said that, i've never exhaled i think is the problem anyway, go ahead, steve. >> thank you, joe. you know while fed officials are not predicting recession their

comments show they're not ruling it out either faced with the uncertainty of the impact of russia's war which threatens to drive high prices even higher and the unknown, of course, how much restraint will be required to control inflation fed officials are speaking with far less confidence than normal about the economic outlook fed chair jay powell is recounting previous successful efforts by the fed to rein in inflation, and only goes so far to say, quote, some grounds for optimism of a soft landing could be achieved. and said yesterday, quote, a soft landing is possible but not guaranteed she warned of tougher policies if inflation does not come down. and telling cnbc, quote, there may be bumps when we get into a period of below trend growth for a while. he forecasted a safe but not necessarily soft landing they think the economy is strong enough to withstand rate hikes

along with the labor market, but for the fed officials there's unknown which cloud the outlook they'll purmslyposely have to tighten policy so much he's raising the nominal rate enough or as larry summers suggested does it have to be the real yield that means it would have to go up by 3% to 4% according to summers. balance sheet reduction what would that do versus rate hikes in restraining the economy and of course is the change sufficient in other words, the fed is raising by a lot,but does it need to get to a certain level the road to a soft landing, well, it begins with unclogging the traffic jams in the supply chain and includes bringing workers back to the labor force to avoid the wage-price spiral even then not clear the eight rate hikes this year balancing a reduction will be enough to

reduce a recession next year >> three top things tomorrow to the extent we could get in relation to reacting to inflation and needing more, you know, to bring people back >> no, i don't -- some of it may be there, joe, but let's not lose focus on the headline number, by the way, which is the fact people come to work a lot of talk about the idea wages aren't keeping up with inflation, it's important. but it's way more important to have a job whose wage can or cannot go up with inflation than if you done have a job it doesn't really matter that much. i think that's important and by the way, joe, in case

you're interested if you're a blues fan at the park -- the central park band show the same place they played 50 years ago. >> outside where anything goes if you know what i mean. >> well, they have rules in the park you're going to have to behave yourself >> all right, steve. yeah, coming up president biden pledging an additional $500 million in aid to ukraine. we're going to have the latest on the situation and the progress of ascee-fire talks that's coming next upport society and businesses have a responsibility to support that village. ♪ ♪ i am peter akwaboah, chief operating officer for technology, operations and firm resilience. when you think about diversity, the employee network group

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president biden has pledged an additional $500 million in aid to ukraine and in a phone call wednesday ukrainian president zelenskyy told president biden there are positive signals from ongoing negotiations for more on this let's bring in the professor of international affairs and the

great-granddaughter of the former soviet premiere thank you for being here today you have a very good idea what may potentialpy be going through putin's mind as you understand russian history and understand what led up to this. what do you think is happening >> i can't quite say i have a great idea what's happening. the geopolitical map that he has may have very little to do with reality because as you know the operation that they now call the war, they have been calling the war was supposed to be done quickly and now it's 36 day of the poperoperation. it is interesting president zelenskyy said there was progress yesterday because the president came out with a statement that they don't see much change in -- in ukrainian attitude towards -- towards negotiations

and it is very interesting because it's almost double headed ego in the kremlin response because the head of the negotiation committee says there is progress and we're moving forward and getting close. and while the kremlin is down-playing the positive results. so we'll see how the kremlin is trying to regroup and present it and basically trying to get more out of what is on the table for both sides than originally planned. >> you point out that to this point putin has shown a certain amount of pragmatism, right, biting off exactly what he can chew and no more what happened this time? >> i think he just got cocky i think he got away with a lot of -- with a lot, essentially, from i think 2014 the crimea

annexation and then the normalization relationship with the west, and then 2015, 2016 american elections where he got a lot of credit for electing donald trump i don't think he did as much as the americans say he did, but he was happily being a former kgb agent and really took credit for this and then there was war in syria where they claimed success so he just thought he can do everything i mean after 22 years in power, 22 years in the kremlin absolute power corrupts absolutely, so i think it completely got into his head now he can just take over territories territories in europe and everybody would be in the decadent west as they say with its own problems and own conflicts would not be able to put up a defense and so that's why i believe he just decided that he can chew -- bite off the whole world

essentially to stand up and fight for there the russian place equal to the american place in the world with the rest of the world >> i've heard a lot of people analyze what happened during the cuban missile crisis with your great grandfather and kennedy. and the idea they were able to reach negotiation where they both kind of got what they wanted, but i also heard, you know, khrushchev actually allowed kennedy to go out and campaign on what he had done and let him take a lot of the credit for that it's probably part of the reason that we were able to reach an agreement like that. how do you see something like this because that seems like a much more difficult circumstance. like those sort of circumstances don't exist today. i can't see putin allowing that, and it's hard to see joe biden allowing that, too >> absolutely. and you don't need my answer as we held gorbachev the last soviet president said, and in your question there is an answer you just answered it

i think these people really understood -- both of them fought in the war, kennedy and c khrushchev they knew what the war was, so they absolutely were not going to let the war happen. that was a given on both sides so they had more humanity and understanding what it means to fight against each other, and i don't think that's happened certainly not in putin's mind. i mean he talks about the war all the time, and he began the war, and they're not even calling it a war it's a special operation, which is completely inconceivable if you see footage from -- from ukraine of how russia is destroying that neighboring country. so i think, you know, the time when 70 years, 75 years since the war it's just unfortunately the memory faded and it's all about heroism. it's not about the suffering and the deadly scene and that putin understands that

and also what you asked previously what -- you know, why is he so reckless this time around and it does seem there's a lot of comparison with khrushchev, and khrushchev was enthusiastic about certain things and he would get way ahead of himself and be very unpredictable. and looking at putin right now and think, well, khrushchev was very zen in his political decisions, which is a lot to say. >> nina, is there anything to the notion that the west would be doing something differently in terms of the very wary approach the west is taking because of what they see as the unpredictability of putin and that that is handcuffing us from doing what we should be doing

in -- in, you know, trying to push back against all of this? it's almost as if we give him leeway because we're worried about what he might do that's a -- puts us in a difficult position to be able to counter what he's doing. >> well, i mean, you know, president biden said numerous times we don't want world war 3, and so the question is -- >> again and again, yeah >> -- right, do we want world war 3? i don't have an answer to that what it should be doing more it is basically an economic war, global economic war with russia right now. so if that is not enough, then there's bombs and nuclear weapons, so we're going back to the '50s and i don't know there is a great solution what i do find very unfortunate that in 2014 when crimea was

annexed, and i was one of the people and there were some people arguing this kind of sanctions they are now should have been done then because that certainly would have stopped putin. and also his security apparatus, his military apparatus, his own mind wasn't prepared to be completely cut off from the west but in eight years i think the process has been going onto really reduce russian independence on anything but also reduce the russian civil society from reacting -- reacting from what's going on. so i think eight years in this sense were completely lost, and that should really be a lesson to the world in the future >> nina, thank you very much for joining us >> thank you coming up, a closer look at apple's streaming strategy after it wins big at the oscars. our john fortt will join us in a couple minutes to discuss, and

we're on yield curve watch again this morning we'll take a look at the potential inversion between it rate on the two year and the ten-year before we head to break let's get a check on the markets not where they've been a little red on the dow and now the s&p. nasdaq still holding onto slim gains. "squawk box" will by right back. we're hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uhhh... [children laughing] doug? [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has easy-to-use tools and some of the lowest prices. get e*trade and start trading today. this is the new world of work. each day looks different than the last. but whatever work becomes, the servicenow platform will make it just, flow. whether it's finding new ways to help you serve your customers, orchestrating a safe return to the office... wait. an office? what's an office? ...or solving a workplace challenge that's yet to come.

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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. in our headlines this morning president biden is set to speak this afternoon on the administration's efforts to try and cut rising gas prices. sources tell nbc news that the white house is considering a plan to release a million barrels a day from the strategic petroleum reserve for several months the cdc has withdrawn its covid-19 warnings against cruise travel saying passengers can now make their own risk assessments. its warning level had been at the highest as recently as december when the cdc advised against taking any cruises it then reduced that warning level last month and vote counting will begin today. two union elections involving amazon warehouses. voting took place yesterday in new york, staten island and in alabama. workers in alabama were actually voting for the second time after the national labor relations board ruled that amazon had interfered in that initial vote. when we come back, former

white house chief of staff and omb director mick mulvaney will join us to talk about president biden's billionaire's tax. and then what investors need to know about the bond market's recession signal as the two-year and the ten-year flirt with inversion. "squawk box" will be right back. now for today's aflac trivia question what is the worst performing stock in the s&p 500 year to date the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues the aflac pre-pain show. aflac! paul is about to suffer a shelf-inflicted injury. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac! maybe you could use the money to buy a step stool. i have a step stool. so why are you climbing a shelf? the stool's on top of the shelf, isn't it paul... [shelf crashing] yeah... ♪ aflac! official partner of march madness.

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the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what is the worst performing stock in the s&p 500 year to date the answer, epam systems >> big moment for streaming at the academy awards this week as coda took home best picture and apple tv plus got bragging rights as the first streamer to capture hollywood's highest honor. does the apple win vindicate its business strategy? john fortt is here to weigh in >> joe, no, it doesn't coda is a great movie.

i'm glad apple paid $25 million for rights this is about business and it's not really clear what apple's strategic business goals are with video and that's a problem. apple certainly spending less than its rivals in the space netflix spent 17 billion overall on content in 2021 a report this week showed lots of subscribers signed up to watch specific pieces of content and then canceled. so apple's made good choices when it buys movies and tv shows. the question is whether apple should be buying movies and tv

shows at all it might distract them from reality games where they really could break new ground, joe. >> there's no way that you have another shot to this that was so definitive you really -- you know what, you're a conflicted individual if you can come up with it on this one >> well, there are lots of us in the world, joe but you know, on the other hand, this is -- this oscar is huge for apple and its business this is too simple to say this is just about getting more apple tv plus subscribers. the content is about keeping consumers in an ecosystem. apple needs its platforms to offer the best streaming experience because that's how we watch now on digital streams through wireless connections, and the only way for apple to gain durable advantage in this era is to own some of the best content and have important relationships in hollywood by understanding the skin in the game they can understand the

rules and how to move the industry forward plus each individual hit adds up people watched ted lasso and the season ends so they think they might cancel it's not necessarily about owning a whole library of content. it's about having enough of the right movies and shows and streaming music and fitness trainers that customers want to stick around in apple subscriptions. if apple didn't invest in content it could end up in a world where its competitors have the shows people want exclusively on their platforms, and that would make apple's devices less valuable. >> all right so you really have a preference on which otoh? i mean what do you really think? and then i want to ask you about coda, and did you see it yet >> i did it really is fantastic >> i saw it twice. did you cry like a baby? >> i cried like a toddler probably trying to hold it back

at times >> i didn't weep but i was embarrassed. >> i went to high school with a great guy. he's a deaf actor, and so i've been paying attention to that space more because of a personal connection you know, he's a great guy >> you don't need to speak we know that now >> everybody should see it >> how about power of the dog? >> i've not seen power of the dog. >> okay. because i think there should have been two best pictures maybe. i understand those that said the genius and the cinematography and the way that it was done i understand how you could say, you know what, coda was -- every once in a while a movie like that comes along, jon, that's almost life affirming and life changing and it may not be artistically the most incredible orsen wells

directed piece, but it's so significant that you need to see it and then on the other hand maybe power of the dog >> but are you a long-term subscriber to apple tv plus or did you just borrow a subsks subscription >> i love apple tv i'm mostly on peacock 99% of the time >> yeah, the world is going to peacock. >> speaking of peacock -- did you see that yes, exactly what i said he was a great player. all right, jon fortt, thank you. >> speaking of peacocks, still to come former white house chief of staff mick mulvaney stay tuned you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc

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senator joe manchin of west virginia is critical of president biden's budget plan, so-called billionaire's tax. and without his support does this mean the president's budget deal is dead or at least that part let's bring in mick mulvaney who

formerly served in the trump administration as omb director and white house chief of staff he's now cochair in consulting thank you for joining us is this a productive use of our time i'll tell you what i'm talking about. we had this conversation earlier this week. i'm told we need to have the conversation of how to do this because what is the chance that this becomes law, mick, in your view, just a realistic view. and maybe we're both biaseden how we see things, but i'm not even sure it passes constitutional muster much less has any chance of getting voted on by the current congress >> yeah, joe, good morning, thanks for having me as always two answers to that question no, at the practical level it's never going to happen. it's not a law at all.

it's a proposal that will probably never be voted on in any way, shape or form i cannot remember any president's budget actually passed through the house and sen the senate and even if it did it's a resolution not a law so practically speaking, no. but on the other hand, it does matter from a philosophical sort of ideological discussion because this is an idea document, it's a messaging document it's the way the president would make the economy, would make the country if he can wave a magic wand on his own. so i think it is right to have a conversation about whether or not the politics of envy is important. >> why propose something if it's a -- i guess i feel a certain way so maybe i'm not objective about analyzing this thing the vast majority of americans see this and go gosh, darnt i

wish we could do this. maybe we can't but seems like a good idea. do you think that's where we are in this country now? >> i think it's the democrats, the biden administration sort of giving the far left what they wanted, what they thought they got when they voted for joe biden, which is go out and soak the rich once you start getting into the it tails it becomes really oppressive on folks in peoria. it sounds like it only applies to 700 families and it does until everybody has to prove they aren't worth $100 million so everybody who files are going to have to do something they're not in that 1% of the top wealthiest families in the country. for that reason i don't think anyone's going to take at it very closely >> we had senator elizabeth warren on. >> she loved it. >> but she makes a lot of hay

about firemen and public schoolteachers paying higher taxes than these horrible wealthy billionaires and hundred millionaires how does that help her does it help her fund raise? >> listen, i think the best question to ask senator warren and anybody on the left is it's easy to sell some of their ideas, make the rich pay their fair share so easy to say and think about everybody should pay their fair share. the question should be what's the fair share it's been about a year since i looked at it the top 1% paid about 20% of all taxes. half of the country didn't pay any income taxes at all. they don't pay for the national defense, for example half the country doesn't pay for that the rich are already carrying this country, so i think it's a question to ask elizabeth warren, proponents of folks who like this budget what is the fair share what percentage of income tax

should be paid by the rich that's a conversation that should happen but not going to happen because this budget >> 40% anyway, not 20% and then the top 10 is 75. >> but it does get at the idea of kind of combining what the high taxes are for the wealthy who are paying large amounts, and then clr a class of a few billionaires getting away with much lower rates in some cases 4%, 5%, even less than that. that's probably what people come back to. look, what they're talking about when she calls it a billionaire income tax that's not the proper terminology because this is a wealth tax but maybe there's something in kind of trying to get at that anger in feeling like people aren't paying their fair share if you find someone is paying 50% or more of their taxes then that seems like a very fair share. if you find out someone who's a billionaire paying less than 5% or in some cases less than 4 or

3% that's kind of where you get at that inequity argument. >> it's always a difficult word because it means different things to different people what might be ecwouldable to you might not be equitable to me the super wealthy they don't cash in their stocks, don't have any income, they deduct interest and they die and pass their assets on and get a step up in basis, that's a system that probably bears some scrutiny maybe the step up in basis i always thought does that make any sense? there could be some fundamental things that could form the basis of a compromise, but a wealth tax is just the politic of envy. listen, we sit here and every single time we talk about how divided the nation is, this proposal doesn't really unite the nation in fact, it probably makes it even worse >> so, mick, you know budgets omb director you saw the article in the journal about how the tax

receipt is coming in you know, the economy is rocking, inflation actually helps in terms of taxes being paid should we be able to live on what we're pulling in right now? and i'm -- we need to decide how to split it up to get our priorities straight. maybe our priorities are all messed up. do we need to do something with nondiscretionary spending so we can spend it on schools or i don't know preschool, i don't know what should we do instead of just trying to raise more money? >> what you just described prioritizing and weighing the costs and benefits describes what happens in almost every single state the federal government is different and what you just described is never going to happen and here's why. if you owned aprinting press, its in your basement and you were able to use it whenever you wanted to and you really believe that using it every single day would have a negative effect on any of your friends or family or

nation, would you use that printing press the answer is yes you would, and that's what washington does. they don't believe there's any negative impact to long-term debts. even republicans who say they're fiscally conservative magically become less so once there's an republican president in office the fiscal conservative wing of washington, d.c. is getting smaller every single year. yeah, we should do those things but we're not going to >> what about a consumption tax with billionaires who are -- they do live well. i saw gates' new house down in san diego. is there a way to tax a 600 foot yacht? >> sure, you could do consumption taxes, you could do flat taxes you talk about percentage rates. >> why isn't that popular? why don't we hear about it from democrats? here's why

if you're paying zero in tax today and pay $1 in tax tomorrow that's an infinite percentage increase in your tax burden, and that's really hard to run on when the other side is going to say you've just proposed the largest income tax or flat tax or whatever in history it's hard to do politically. when rick scott came out and said everybody should have a little bit of skin in the game, he got escoriated for that. it's really difficult to do these things politically >> do you -- are you allowed to come on if you're like a big time cbs person? are you still allowed to come on "squawk box" >> every now and then. you don't talk about budgets that's fine. i don't have to wear a tie for them in the morning. you could have hired me and you chose not to, and that's fine. >> well, i think it's obvious why. anyway, mick, thank you. it's good to have you on just kidding before we head to a break, a

couple of stocks to watch. walgreens beating both the top and bottom line with adjusted earnings of $1.59 a share. they came in with revenue of 33.8 bill i see versus $34.4 billion in terms of expectations that stock still down about 1.1% they point a cyclical risk at several different in markets for the semiconductor maker. that stockig rht now off by about 2% "squawk box" will be right back.

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a trade association that says it supports small business and advocates against anti-trust and regulations is apparently backed by two of the biggest tech companies on the planet you don't say. eamon javers, you do say joins us with more now on that story >> good morning. a washington, d.c. non-profit group called the connected commerce council or 3c describes itself as a membership organization that advocates on behalf of small business on deck naelg issues i will recently the group had a list of those members displayed

on its website when cnbc called the small businesses listed there more than 20f of them told us they weren't actually members or heard of the group other members did say they're active participants in the group. critics say they're an aphroturf lobbying group in fact, the connected commerce council is financed by google and amazon and advocates against anti-trust legislation on capitol hill and in a facebook advertising campaign amazon and google are listed as partners on 3c's website when we called them to ask why they're partners with the council they said, well, they're not. after our inquiry block called the council to ask the square logo be removed from its website which it was on monday in a statement it said all its

directors signed up with events online or through a personal connection and he says small businesses have legitimate concerns now to be sure the group has small business members who told us they're happy with the council. the group has thrown happy hours for members and offers training on tech tools. in a statement google said we encourage small businesses and organizations that represent them to ask congress to consider the unintended consequences of these bills for small business across the country an amazon official confirmed the company is a partner of the council. neither company would say how much money if any it contributed to the group back over to you guys. >> well, very good, eamon. very interesting thank you. appreciate that report still to come this morning is china manipulating the oil market kyle bass believes that could be the case he'll join us to explain why

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xfinity can do all that. sorry, verizon. welcome back, everybody. fixed income investors are keeping a careful watch on bond spreads after the 5 and 30-year rates flipped earlier this week. yield curve inversions h

histtorquely occur before a recession. also with us steve liesman and rick santelli who's here with us as well. guys, i just want to start with this whole debate. i was out yesterday. i know there was this back and forth whether the ten and two year was inverted. my take was it's not we came awfully close to it. does that count? >> i don't think it counts, and i don't think in the grand scheme of things it's going to make much difference it will invert the question is what dud does it mean if you have a cold you sneeze, but if you sneeze you don't necessarily have a cold. whether you look at the '90-91 recession in every case the twos to ten inverted prior but three months to tens inverted prior as well

all yield curves converting potentially could lead to recession. i would just stick probably with the lowest common denominator because in every instance of recent recessions three months to tens did invert and recessions did occur >> it tells you that the fed is raising rates and the markets believe down the road the fed will likely go too far and have to cut rates and go too far just in a recession i actually i get different strokes from different folks here i like the three-month two-year spread and the reason is because it's in the window you're trying to forecast. i get the idea the q 10 has this very good record although there's a question in 2019 in my opinion. because the infrchs in 2019 is

that itfore saw the covid outbreak which doesn't make a lot of set i like the two year. it's just a near-term spread, and it's within the zone you're trying to forecast you want to know what's going to happen the next couple of years, not entirely clear to me why the ten-year would be giving you that kind of information >> anthony, we have seen a significant move in rates. it's something everybody is watching and paying attention to you think the move we've seen to this point is an accurate reflection what's happening in the economy and what's expected to come from the fed >> yeah, we do think this is accurate reflection. we think the rates and fed are particularly behind the curve. we have a hot labor market inflation running at 40-year highs so we thought a yield environment pervasive in 2020,

2021 wasn't accurate itself. you need a significant amount of monetary policy tightening if you're going to corral rising inflation pressures here we think right now given the market is pricing for 8, 22 we think that's a realistic scenario of what's going on. >> anthony, what would you tell people to do right now when it comes to anything in the bond market what do you like, what do you not like >> i think the message we would tell investors is to sell and to strength you've seen the rally and risk in the last few weeks here, and we're using the opportunity to go up in quality for our credit portfolios we're rotating out of single d names and triple d names and single a names here. we're rotating into sectors that should be able to withstand a slow down in economy or withstand increased volatility from the tightening cycle we're

about to see so that's some of the things we're thinking about in our portfolios >> steve, what's the idea you get -- the sense you get of how powell and company are reading these moves in the bond market >> you know, i think they look at a lot of things it really is an interesting question because the issue is where and what is tightening the financial conditions i think they look at spreads and spreads have been wider. i think they look -- i mean when i say spreads i mean for example triple b or corporate bonds, and they see tightening there. they see the market being down and some tightening there, and of course they see the outlook for rate hikes for the fed funds futures being higher, and they see tightening there in fact, it's pretty interesting, becky the fed is raised by one quarter of a point and there's something like 200 basis of tightening already in the two-year. so the fed is broadly watching financial conditions to see if words are being transmitted into

reality and into the real economy. and that does seem to be happening now. >> rick, i think you've kind of set the tone with just saying just because you sneezed doesn't mean you have a cold >> a good saying where does he come up with this stuff? >> just because you sneeze or have a cold doesn't mean you get the flu. just because you get a recession doesn't mean two quarters in a row of negative growth that's not necessarily a recipe for disaster, right? >> no. as a matter of fact, the truth be told and i know everybody's heads going to explode with this, but from green span on central bankers around the globe especially the fed have been trying to wean out the whole recessionary process by easing money and artificially low interest rates recessions are a cleansing process. i think it's very necessary. i know it can cause pain, and i'm not necessarily hoping it

occurs, but it really isn't the end of the world and i think those types of cycles every now and again really keep the system much more honest, and they probably also keep us from having the big one somewhere down the road. >> i'm thinking of a juicing detox, you know, not comfortable but sometimes necessary. little maintenance coming through. thank you, gentlemen it is good to see all of you anthony, steve and rick. just after 8:00 a.m. in new york and you're watching "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm becky quick along with joe kernen s&p futures up by lessthan 2 points and the nasdaq up by 43 we've got some great guests still to come in the next hour

including scott gottheimer and then later hayman capital management chief kyle bass will be here. also those recessionary signals from the bond market we begin with what's making headlines right at this hour are we going to be getting a fresh read on the labor market at the bottom of the hour. the labor department going to be releasing last week's initial jobless claims expected to rise by 8,000 to 195,000. last weeks claim were the lowest in 52 years. >> 52 years top songs. >> i could probably come close on that. we'll also get february personal income and spending both expected to rise by a half a pernt. robin hood has won a legal victory in massachusetts the company had been accused of encouraging inexperienced

investors to make risky trades, but a judge ruled the fiduciary standards implemented by state regulators in 2020 overstepped its authority. food delivery services uber eats and grubhub and post mates will have to face an anti-trust suit brought by customers they're accused of driving prices higher with restrictive comp scission clauses for the restaurants that use them. a u.s. district court judge ruled the accusations were plausible rejecting a motion by delivery companies to dismiss the case they certainly muck up the wait times for fast food. >> that's not great for restaurants. >> i watch and try to get, you know, a couple orders of fries and i'm watching shopping bags being filled before by happy fry order can be filled. it's very frustrating. >> this is before my time. bridge over troubled water

>> oh, wow >> travel and band by ccr. >> yeah, i know that one >> signed, sealed delivered, i'm yours by stevie wonder my parents, that's their song. >> no way, billy he just died. reason drops form in my head i heard that was -- >> i know more of these songs than i know from 2003 which is you didn't see the moon landing. >> no i did not. >> i did the biden administration is reportedly considering a plan to release approximately a million barrels a day. that news comes as opec leaders meet this morning and, brian,

it's really interesting most of the time when a president says he's going to tap the strategic petroleum reserve in terms of a million barrels a day that is something that seem tuesday be making a denlt, and we're seeing it right now in the futures prices >> it is i mean crude oil is down about $6 a barrel, so we'll see how the market ultimately reacts longer-term, and by the way talk about music. 1970 led zeppelin 3, you guys are killing me all right, let's start with opec first. nothing on opec. the expectation they're going to kind of rubber stamp their previous deal adding there's just over 4,000 barrels per day of increased output continuing with their plan. that number could be 30,000 a day with extra adjustments still that's kind of what's expected on prices also as you noted the president

expected to announce a million barrels a day from the spr for up to six months that could be by far the biggest ever released. so you just asked will it help a price swell? the market decided it will but in the longer-term it could actually hurt. goldman sachs out with a note earlier this morning saying this, quote, central release would therefore not resolve the structural supply deficit years in the making. in fact, lower prices this year would leave for now a deficit next year as well as the likely requirement to refill the spr meaning prices may go down, which causes people to drive more, and so prices go up. they also think production could drop here's the think about oil production, and this is not some

great insight or political gain. i'm not going to wow anybody with this, but i made this chart this morning and posted it on the social because here's the thing. it's the rig counts versus the oil going back 30 years. orange is oil, blue is rig counts oil goes up, production goes up a short time later oil goes down, production falls because people won't make as much money that's how it works. oh, and by the way, something it does not get very much attention, the eaia is predicting record oil production of 13 million barrels per year of next year some people in the government are upset u.s. production isn't rising more, but yet the official government estimates, the eia is predicting record production next year politics i guess are a little bit more difficult to predict than the oil markets

anyway we also force a different issue because that volatility we just showed you in the pandemic a lot of oil workers have left for stable careers you're at 30, negative 30 and down and you're fired and rehired. so maybe a little harder to add production you know, prices go down, and what might happen? people may drive >> i hear your point on two fronts and we rode the oil booms and busts, and it was awful. and yes, oil production goes up when prices go up -- and when prices go down as far as politics why let facts get in the way >> well, there you go. and your dad would know more, by the way. i love that rocksford jocks.

number one, they should understand the whole supply chain impact most oil producers, becky, do not make gasoline. some of the biggest ones do, but the majority of oil producers in america just make oil, sell it to a refinery. the refiners make the gas, and of course they sell it to distributor who sells it probably to another distributor who then sells it it to mom and pop. and along that supply chain you've got diesel fuel up, tolls are up everything in the supply chain from taking it out of the ground to putting that tiger in your tank, right, becky, all the costs there are higher but i'm going to say this. this is for joe, and this is not confirmed so i want to be clear on this. i'm just throwing stuff out that i heard. maybe complete garbage, but it's a fun story. in europe apparently in germany they're not making french fries because vegetable oil is too expensive. no fries for you because it's too expensive to fry food.

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let's talk about president biden's new budget our next guest hail from the president's own party but he thinks the proposed billionaire's tax is impossible to execute and also been pushing to end the cap on state and local tax deductions, but that is something missing from the white house's new proposal joining us right now is josh gottheimer first of all, what do you think of the budget overall? >> well, i think a lot of it reflects our priorities in terms of investing i think in important policies like veterans, which we should always do and stand by for the people who fought for us and of course make sure we take care of our law enforcement. these are both proposals in

areas i've been pushing for that we invest in law enforcement and make sure we continue as we've been doing in the congress, recently taking care of our veterans but other areas, becky, as you pointed out i'm concerned about. i think this is an overall plan for the president. i'd say it's congress that decides ultimately where we're going to allocate our resources for the country, but i think there's good things here and things i'm concerned about >> one of those concerns is i guess let's start with the billionaire's tax that's been proposed we had senator elizabeth warren this week talking about it you think it's dead on arrival, so why is it in there? >> well, i think there's overall far too much on the tax side proposal fuse, trillions of dollars of taxes proposed i don't think right now is what our economy basing that's what we shouldpo be doing to our families back home and small businesses any change in the tax code you've got to provide tax relief to families in places where i

live in northern new jersey and places like that i think the other proposal offered you mentioned the billionaire tax and how they put it forward doesn't make much sense. i don't think that can work, so i really don't think that proposal is going anywhere >> we keep having this typo whenever we introduce you. let's see veterans, law enforcement, lower taxes and -- and it says "d." we keep putting that typo in representative josh sgottheimer

"d." >> joe, whenever you want to spend time and have dinner with us -- >> i'm leaving the lights on for you, my friend, if you ever want to come home >> sounds good >> josh, what is the feedback you get from your party when crow talk about things like this because there is a wing of the party that is very actively involved in this and if you're cynical about it, you might think this is being thrown out as red meat to that side of the party to bring them back into the fold because they've been some of the ones complaining the loudest recently >> i don't know about that there's obviously a difference of opinion in the party and that's what makes for a healthy debate it's a big tent and we have to have these discussions i think as the president outlined in the budget there are things we just talked about like taking care of our veterans, law enforcement, you'll see a projection of a trillion dollar reduction in deficit year over year, which i think is obviously

a very good thing and healthy for the economy. we need to deal with the cost side that people are facing. the president today as you were just talking about proposing adding a million barrels a day into -- into oil production around the world which i think is a very good thing we need to get costs down for folks and families and get more domestic production up anything we can do to absolutely ease cost for folks, and as we're coming out of a covid economy i think we need to provide relief to families and help them through this tough time so those proposals are all good things and there are some in my party who disagree and there are some we talked about on the far left who are in a very different spot than i'm at, but there's plenty of us to my point who are getting together in fact we did last night to talk about what we could do common sense things to help families out and ensure we invest in the right places >> differences in the part are one thing but when it means you

can't get legislation passed is quite another. do you think there'll be enough agreement to have those things pass >> just in the last couple weeks we passed legislation on veterans and make sure we take care of those with mental health issues, and those are certain things we did in a bipartisan way. china chips you probably find that as well legislation both of the house and senate and have a conference on finally getting more which helps the prices as well and standing up and instead of relying on china and other parts of the world for things we've been doing at home-like semiconductors and everything we need to have, so those are places where we clearly agree on law enforcement, our invest to protect act which is all about investing in law enforcement, not the funding, we've got 50 plus members, that i've proposed in investing in training, and those are all things we come

together around and i think we really can move off the floor, not to mention other things like cancer and make sure we do everything we can to help there. i guess my point, becky, is there's plenty we agree on there's plenty we can come together on and do in a bipartisan way >> some of these things get a lot of attention not because we put it in play because because the administration has chosen to focus on, too. what do you think about the stock buy back plan, the idea that executives who receive stock shouldn't be allowed to sell it for three years after the company initiates a buyback program? >> i mean, i think that's far too paternalistic. i really think a business has to, you know, call their own shots on that. i don't really subscribe to that

proposal >> congressman scot gottheimer, it's always good to see you. >> it's great to see you, becky. joe, it's good to talk to you. i'll see you again >> all right, it's a late night we're -- >> that's a nasty kind of image. >> no, no. i -- you said this -- do we focus on the differences between the party, did you really say that >> other people might be focusing on a few differences, too, don't you think at this point? it's not us. coming up breaking inflation data new numbers on the way at the bottom of the hour, plus is there a chance china is manipulating crude oil prices? hedge fund manager kyle ss hbaas some thoughts on that, we're going to speak with him live stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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than the last time we heard that >> yeah, joe, it's a new way of approaching pain, and this is a midstage study in phase two. and essentially it is a nonopioid pathway toward targeting pain, they found in this phase two study that it met its goals in reducing acute pain after two different kinds of surgeries both compared with placebo and an opioid comparator, so they plan to start bigger trials in the second half of this year pending from the fda it could present the first new way of approaching pain without opioids in decades, and this goes after something that is nonaddictive it essentially targets the sodium channels that dial-up or dial down pain it's a genetically validated target it's something drug makers have been going after for years and another similar sodium channel that was targeted called nav 1.7

has not borne out from other companies. at least in this midstage study it appeared to work. spiked a little bit and not moving a ton we've got to really see this bear out, but of course the search for nonopioid nonaddictive pain medicines. >> it's very interesting and i guess it isn't just mandatory that something really effective with managing pain has this great feeling associated with it. i guess you could just -- it'd be nice if you could just knock out the pain itself without all the things we know about opioids because there's a reason they're so highly addictive. it is a knocking out the plane i guess makes for a great experience, and hopefully they're not inextricably linked. but up to this point it always

seems like it goes hand in hand. even when you say it doesn't that was the claim that was made, but it was obviously false. >> yeah, absolutely. and so far they've not seen anything like this and the meck fchl by which it works makes you think this wouldn't have those kinds of effects of course we'll have to see what happens in the late stage clineral trials, make sure this actually works and the side effect profile is good but the genetically provided target and the way this works makes you think it should have that effect. coming up breaking economic data, a new look at inflation is next that's when "squawk box" returns. this is the new world of work. each day looks different than the last. but whatever work becomes, the servicenow platform will make it just, flow.

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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we are just seconds away from new inflation data jobless claims, personal income spending rick at the cme in chicago what are the number? >> the numbers aren't as fast as they used to be, but they're important if we're going to see 200,000 on initial claims or hovering 1.3 million on continuing claims. these are levels we haven't seen obviously since the late 60sch income spending are out and inflationary numbers you're referring to are of course the expenditures, i don't see the data coming across

202,000 on initial jobless claims that's a little bit higher and of course on the psychological barrier of 200,000, but these are still very, very good numbers. the best level of course was 187,000 in the rearview mirror we'll have to see if that gets revised. this goes way beyond post-covid. once again this goes into the 1960s. personal income expected up half of 1%. deliveries up half of 1% spending supposed to be up half of 1%. a big miss here, up 0.2. we know inflation have eaten into the notion of spending. real personal spending and that is a big deal. now, let's get to the money numbers. the deflaters mean you have to take something away to account for inflation, so the personal inflation expenditure month over

month was up 0.6 as expected you have to go back to 2008 to find a bigger one. on the year over year deflater that number is 6.4 that is a new cycle high that takes you back to 1982. if you look at the core of the energy deflater up well, 5.4% is definitely easing back just a smidge from what we were expecting at 5.#, but it's still a big number it follows 5.2, and it's the highest level since 1983 joe, back to you >> thanks, rick. steve liesman joins us now with more what do you think? >> yeah, i'm just looking at these expenditure numbers.

they're still positive we were talking about earlier this morning, joe, the idea the fed is not ruling out recession, and yet at the same time saying the economy is strong enough at this point in order to withstand the rate hikes coming their way. rick is 100% right these are still low jobless claims numbers, so this is high frequency data, the jobless claims number, by the way. and it's telling us we're not seeing a lot of effect in the job market right now or any potential slow down that might be associated with higher oil pricesch and again, these numbers here you adjust for inflation, people are still spending more. and by the way we've been through the roll-off of the child tax credit which is some of the fiscal restraint some expected obviously a much higher burden for a lot of lower and moderate income americans overall in aggregate they seem to be getting over that hurdle i mean, it's good news going

into what we're going into, but you can't say we're out of the woods yet. >> okay, steve thank you both when we come back could china be using citywide lockdowns to move prices for oil that it desperately needs? that's something we're going to ymk our next guest about haan capital's kyle bass stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ ♪ imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon? in other words... etoro.the power of social investing. ♪ ♪ in other words... connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪

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oil this morning down 5% it was down 6% at one point helping to drive down crude price. reports that president biden may for months now -- for a while release the million -- or a million barrels of oil per day from for reserve another factor the citywide shutdowns and reduced demand in china as the coronavirus spreads. this week the country's largest city shanghai with plans to test 26 million people. tuesday afternoon our next guest sent out this tweet. wti crude hit $123 in the second week of march. china announced the full shutdown of shenzhen wti climbs back to $115.

march 23rd china announced two phased shutdowns of shanghai sending crude down 17 in five days hashtag china exposed, hashtag crude oil. and we thought putin was shorting the s&p at 1.2. do countries do things like this, they would use covid lockdowns to acquire oil cheaply, kyle? >> you know, joe, i think it's just stating a few facts and showing that either things are entirely coincidental at the right times or there's something more insidious going on. and, you know, even our own fbi head of counter intelligence said yesterday the chinese government takes advantage of our freedoms, the freedoms they deny their own people to advance th authoritarian regime and calls

any uncomfortable truths and methods lies this is not something lost upon i think the people that follow the regime closely and again i'm just stating a few facts here look at what we're doing today again, another short-term fix. we're going to release 180 million barrels over the next six months that was convincedle, but the six months is going into the mid-terms is probably just coincidental we need to strategically fix our energy transition policies which are broken at the moment it's going to take 30 to 40 years for us to basically transition out of hitrocarbons into things like alternative energy it's a pipe dream if anyone thinks we're going to be there anytime soon and what we need to do is really strategically be investing believe it or not in our own hydrocarbon production and

enabling that to happen from a per spective of our government >> just the idea the chinese are doing this, the shutdowns are hurting china in many other ways they reported numbers overnight that showed both manufacturing and services activity was down they've gotten hurt pretty deeply by this it's hard to think that they're doing this just for cheap oil. >> yeah. i think, becky, it's important to think about what putin is doing. you know, what putin is doing is not at all economic. i think we all on this show and most of the people that comment here we talk about the economic consequences we talk about the market consequences, but when you get into the heads of these desp despotic, authoritarian leaders they're not making decisions that are economic. so putin's decision to invade ukraine i think had nothing to do with making a positive economic decision. he knew it was going to go a long, hard, painful maneuver

that could have him basically sanctioned from the west for decades. china is now wedded to the fact that communism has to prevail, and so you see the ruatorial support, and you see behind the scenes their financial support of putin's, you know, massacre in the ukraine and so i think it's important to think about things jestrucollegely and not simply economically because that's how these guys are thinking about it >> talking about china, let's talk about whether we still think there are viable investments, securities in china. in light of what we've seen happening in russia and sanctions, and china sort of nondescript or i guess they've chosen a side but they seem to be treading very lightly on whether or not they go all in on their new bffs in russia

and i would suggest they tread lightly because we've excused a lot from china our corporations have excused a lot already. they were kind of flying under the ralder when they really shouldn't be flying under the radar. >> i think this is the key question, joe. when you think about fiduciary responsibility on u.s. institutional investors, historically they were willing to just turn a blind eye and follow the inclusion of various countries and indices and blindly invest in these despotic regimes and just basically take the defense of i know nothing until something goes poorly. what putin has just taught the institutional investment community is that entire countries should be considered uninvestable i know everyone thought that spurbank and gascd-rom and many of the other russiancompanies were, quote, cheap from an

international perspective and from an investment standard. and i realize china tantalizes the world with their potential growth, the 1.4 billion chinese at the end of the rainbow that everyone wants to sell something to but in the end what putin just taught us is we need to look at the despotic autocrats and really rethink if the negative risk we're associating with these potential countries is worth the investment or more importantly if you're doing your -- exercising your proper fiduciary duty, they call it the prudent man standard, one could argue when you're investing in a company who won't submit their companies to standard audits, whose leader can literally decimate entire industries at a whim like china did in the last 12 months with for profit education, tech, health care, you name it. and now you've got the last two secretary of states in the

united states saying china is committing crimes against humanity and genocide, again that schism between wall street, dod and intelligence in the u.s. has never been wider and i think institutional investors with fiduciary responsibilities need to be brought into the light because anyone invested in russia just las everything, and as you say china is on that razer's edge if they make the wrong decision in actually siding with russia here overtly and submit themselves to sanctions over the u.s. then all the u.s. investments in china is now suspect. i would be willing to posit that the people who have huge private equity investments, multibillion dollar investments in china are worried about their ability to get that money back now, and that was never a thought going in, and now it's a very serious thought. >> you think the biggest companies in the world that do a

lot of business in china, if china actually sided with russia more do you think they would live up to this? do you think the nba is going to live up to sanctions if they're asked to do so >> i do believe that and look, behind the scenes i've had conversations with many of our multibillion dollar ceos that have large businesses in china. they are doing everything possible, and they have been for the last few years to get out of china, to change their supply chains, to rethink let's say the global world order between, you know, the rules based west and turning into the access of authoritarians or however you want to put it the number one threat to u.s. national security is china in

that report and then russia and then iran and then north korea they all show up in the report, so i guess wall street doesn't pay attention toit >> what's your view then a bump in the road or over >> you don't have to paint it with that broad of a brush you have to say each country run by maybe a despotic authoritarian should be re-reviewed and maybe not invested in. i've always said our fundamental ideological foundations between especially our country and china are so diametrically opposed to one another at some point in time we were going to be forced to decouple. and what putin has done is just sped that up so i think over the next year or two we're going to learn whether taking that risk was actually worth it and i think the people that took those risks are going to realize they weren't worth it.

>> kyle bass, interesting as always thank you. a lot of tough decisions glad we just have to talk about it don't have to be in the room >> thank you when we come back we'll get jim cramer's first take on the trading day ahead. futures this morning have been mixed through much of the morning. you'll see right now that's still the case dow futures down by about 42 s&p futures down by a couple of points nasdaq still up 22 stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc ons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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all right, let's get down to the new york stock exchange, check in with jim cramer hey, jim, yesterday was a rare down day for the markets we've seen a couple weeks now where the trend has been nasdaq. it was the biggest decliner yesterday. down 42% is this okay we're taking a little bit of a breather >> i think the market was reacting to two things one, gary's somewhat bizarre report about how things have gotten very bad and -- in housing. and sanjay was gravely misinterpreted when he was on "squawk on the street. he did not say that cell phones were bad he said that 4g is transitioning to 5g. people decided cell phones were done you see a lot of cell phone stocks -- people decided pc were done because he said consumer pc wasn't strong and enterprise pc was strong you see the. c stocks come down

that set into a motion a tremendous decline in the nasdaq i thought it was unwarranted micron continues to go down today. i think it's important to sell but, obviously, people have decided things were great misinterpreted as things were saying bad but that's been happening a lot. there's a lot of shoot and then ask questions later, becky i think there's uninformed selling going on. >> looking a the stock like apple that was up 11 days in a row, the longest winning streak its seen in something like 20 years. it suggests that overall there are people getting back into the high-tech names overall. >> oh, absolutely. there's a meta piece today one of the things that -- i mean, apple is up for so many days there was a considerable short position that was billed on the nikkei story that was ill vised, i think, about apple calling on

suppliers and telling them, hey, listen apple doesn't do that kind of thing. interesting piece about goldman and financial service in apple apple is doing a lot of stuff that is positive does it warrant a straight up? only what you said people are coming back to tech they're using the comments to sell some tech i think what people want to do is just be a little more certain about what they do rather than today good tomorrow bad. >> right. >> and, also, i think we have to recognize that russia is here to stay, all though not doing as well as we thought we can't react every day to that i think that the spr, that always has been one day. it's been one day where it goes down and then the next day you have to start buying them. >> yeah. i guess just on the russia thing. we did speak with the distiller

earlier today. i think if you're looking at it from the business perspective, getting hit with the higher costs on everything from glass to grain to the energy surcharges that are getting put in i mean, it starts to add up and you think, wow, what is coming down the pike? >> yeah. it's a tremendous supply chain problems just like america and you can't get a spare part for a tank. i don't know why we think the russians are invisible this is not 1944. >> good point. see you in a few minutes "squawkbox" will be right back by the way, if you haven't signed up for the club, you can do it there. .. ...i'm feeling a little lost. quickbooks can help. an easy way to get paid, pay your staff, and know where your business stands. new business? no problem. success starts with intuit quickbooks.

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just over a half hour to two until the opening bell on wall street the futures are a little mixed s&p is basically flat. dow futures down by 32 the nasdaq up by about 30. let's talk markets now with courtney gibson, the president of bloom capital markets and cnbc contributor let's talk about this from the institutional perspective. that's who your firm focuses on. what are you hearing from the

institutional investors now as we get to the end of the quarter that has been the roughest quarter for stocks since the start of the pandemic >>well, becky, thank you so much for having me. it's great too see you this morning. it's interesting analyst capital markets cover a wide variety of institutions on the bond side. for every opinion, there's one on the other side. what i find interesting the past week in talking to our equity desk was that we aren't seeing clients that have kind of limits on their programs that are basically like, look, if it hits this level, it'll come back in i think it helps to drive the rally we see moving. people look at the 20-day moving

averages over the last couple of days we've seen the dip or vacillating in the market. it's really been driven up low volume, which is no what you want to focus on it's the high volume days. it's telling you institutional markets in the marketplace. >> yeah. and the buying being driven by the institutional investors. are they the smart money do they look and say, hey, this is a bargain relatively speaking >> i would never say that institutional investors are the smart money. it would imply the reverse which is retail is not i would never say that what i will tell you is that folks that have a high conviction portfolio strategy, whether it's quantitatively driven or fundamentally driven, they are absolutely picking their spots. this is not going to be a market as we move forward in 2022 or rising tides will look -- it's not going to happen. >> what do you like right now? what does your firm like what do you like >> so, capital markets we have

about 20 institutional research analysts that are covering over 300 names. in my portfolio, i have a diversified portfolio. it's areas where i focus for the long-term and where i was buying as recently as even last night were in the fintech space, i love financials, ialso love tech, and consumer staples again, going back and forth in some of those cyclical names as well as the -- names, as well. we need tech in the space in order to continue the rally through the end of the year. >> courtney, i want to thank you for your time today. it's good to see you. >> thanks, becky, great to see you, as well a final check on the markets. the last day of march. last day of the week. >> april -- >> tomorrow is april 1st don't fall for anything tomorrow. >> don't tell andrew. >> yeah. we can do something. we can do something to him

down about 27 -- he probably knows. down about 27 points now. >> it's early in the morning if you had told me, i would forget. >> you would forget. maybe i'll count on that and do something to both of you let's see. make sure you should tune in for that right now "squawk on the street" is next. good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber is on assignment say goodbye to g 1 longest quarter every wrote b of a. a potential record release from oil spr. road map begins with energy. the oil line opec stays the course and the u.s. nears the historic release of reserves recession risks. jpm said not this year why the bank said the u.s. is poised to weather the inflation storm. then mem