really safe, secure place to be. >> appreciate it. look at market quick dow's down 185 still working on first positive month of the year. that's howrocky certainly the story has been see what's going to happen in april. earnings season, fed, everything else to consider that does it for us. "the exchange" is now. thank you. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans and among everything else to consider, president biden is expected to speak about 30 minutes from now as he orders a huge release of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, and it may not stop there. could gasoline rebates be next would any of this actually work to bring pump prices down? that, plus impact on energy stocks what's the unemployment rate telling us about possibility of recession as the big jobs report looms tomorrow morning, look at whether the fed can bring down inflation without sparking a downturn what's is all mean for the stock market about to close outsid the worst

quarter of stock in two years. is there more more pain ahead? and s&p down 0.4 below 4600 and n nasdaq down. even declines. energy the center of ction seeing big declines today after the white house unveils measures not just espr release but penalties on companies not producing. enacting mining for electric battery parts. oi103. brent similar decline positive by 3%. getting in the range of 6 per million btus, and flip side, retail moving lower.

xrtef on pace worst quarter in two years. rough one there. chipmaker amd, worse performer cut to neutral at barclays, growth story vz a pause. en 7.5% pause. and unemployment 3.8% as of february. gap between total jobs and available workers in the u.s. remains a post-war high. chair powell himself at the press conference two weeks ago says the labor market is tight to an unhealthy level. problem, no historical evidence the fed can loosen a labor market without a recession happening. these thick bands. recession always taken place when unemployment race is 0.3% higher over just a three-month period of time you can call it the dudley rule. sort of something that bill dudley always liked to invoke. too late the question is our fate sealed

a downturn lurking sometime middle of next year? joining me, chief economist with jpmorgan you pointed thissous yesterday.s >> summed it up. unemployment very low and evidence building of a wage price spiral, keeping upward pressure on inflation for some time the fed with their policy should want to relieve some of that pressure slow growth and demand, and for better or worse actually get the unemployment rate up just a little bit you mentioned that tends to be hard when the fed exerts, puts the brakes on the economy, i should say. unemployment rate tends to go up a lot. so that i think is really the concern. not necessarily a concern for this year, i would say fed is just getting started. obviously -- seems they'll pick up the pace. i think given the lags in monetary policy and how that acts on the real economy

next year prospects are looking a little more dicey, if the fed really needs to slam on the brakes to slow the price wage spiral that appears to be developing now. >> a conundrum saying we've federal reserver been able to see improvement in the unemployment rate without it basically triggering a recession. is there anything we could do now to keep that from being the case, if you look ahead into the middle of next year or whatever markets are signalling >> yeah. easier to say what we should have done second half of last year for now the fed is on the right path trying to catch up where they should be and then have to be very nimble, i think, seeing signs of a slowdown and stopping when that happens. that's essentially the closest thing i think we have this soft landing. the snare know played out in '94-95 and in that period greenspan, who was very -- fine reader of the data, he was quick in noticing that business cycle

was rolling over i think the fed has to be nimble in deciding when to stop their hikes. but we'll see. it's going to be, could be a bit tricky. >> you point out in 1984 and 1994 those soft landing episodes happened when infligs was already heading lower and unemployment above natural rate. we are in the opposite scenario. inflation rate heading higher and unemployment rate below normal rate? >> most estimates say below and evidence we see in wage growth, running well above productivity growth, would suggests the labor market is very tight by a number of measures. also you mentioned job openings relative to number of unemploymented pea at all-time highs. i think however you look at it feels like unemployment rate below natural rate and therefore exerting upward pressure on inflation. that is, again, unlike those

earlier episodes you really had to do in the earlier episodes, slow down growth to around trend growth. here the fed if they really are serious about inflation, may have to push growth below trend growth, and that's where you get into concerns about stall speeds, which is a notion whenever growth gets below a certain level you tend to stall and actually sgo into negative growth compounding the challenge earlier mentioned. >> saying, in other words, the best way for the fed to avoid a downturn next year, be tighter more hawkish right now >> i think that's the rationale behind the fed's latest pivot toward more aggressive rate hikes in the near term get back to something closer to neutral. neutral funds rate something like 2% to 2.5%. in that range it's easier to get policy tight or ease policy if need be. i think that's the rationale if you can get there sooner maybe next year you won't have

to be -- right now the fed's playi ing catch-up rationale hurting now, you would be playing even more catch-up next year if you don't go faster now. seems to be what's driving the way this pivot thinking is -- you know, get in a better position not so far off sides as they are arguably now. >> spin ahead to 8:30 tomorrow morning. is the worse problem if we see a really strong -- add 600,000 jobs and unemployment, 3.5%, the worst possible jort would you prefer to see something only add 200,000 and wages flat and unemployment rate maybe ticks up a little >> i think in the ideal world what you see is a lot of job growth and increase in labor force participation. then that means more income, more spending. but not necessarily more inflation.

on the other hand, don't get that pick-up in participation, a point where you probably do want to slow down job growth and certainly slow down wage growth. again, i don't want to say wage growth is -- it's great. but you want wage growth that is sustainable, and you want wage growth that is growing around a little faster than the rate of productivity growth. in a perfect world like in the late '90s, really strong productivity growth and really strong wage growth absent that strength in productivity growth, probably want wage growth to moderate, strange as it sounds, if we want the inflation flob median turn under control. >> down is up, up is down in this environment everything else. thank you. good to see you. and turn to stocks actually about to close out first positive month of the year next guest isn't worried right now says a good time for long-term investors to begin positioning.

got three conviction calls expecting big gains out the u.s. markets. welcome in maryanne montagne, for the follow yo investment manager. great to see you talk big picture a second. what do you think, what are your concerns in this environment >> oh, a lot of concerns but i think i'm trying to separate myself out from all the worries and look forward to a time when there's fewer worries, and for that reason, i'm, you know, very -- optimistic towards a ceasefire in the ukraine, and that's why i think that overseas stock will outperform u.s. stock s when you look at eurostocks in the eu they benefit from a stronger euro against a u.s. dollar and post-covid and post-ukraine world at a 33% discount to the u.s.

stocks if we look at emerging markets, there are beneficiaries for lower energy costs and higher values for other commodities outside of energy. and that's selling at about a 43% discount to u.s. stocks. so i think international will outperform. >> don't often get people excited about buying europe. here we are. obvious and excellent reasons you mention, a time to look at exposure to emerging markets and high commodities prices we're seeing and right towards high-yield bonds? >> yeah. so high-yield bonds, i think will have better underpinnings so maybe better -- going forward obviously have higher yields with about a 5.4% right now. and also if we look to emerging markets, local currency government debt. you know, that's high quality against overseas corporates or

overseas junk bonds. you can get a 6% yield attractive with durations less than the u.s. side aggregate. >> i want to ask about semiconductors nvidia a call last time on and up since that period a lot of anxiety around the cycle now. what would you share, do stocks look attractive to you depend on the name >> well, it does depend upon the name, but just looking at the overall landscape, we're looking forz a for a period of time increased supplies all the talk about supply shortages but looking at a time for increased supplies and that's across the board. if you get supplies to the auto industry vehicles, then you can get much stronger growth in the semiconductors they're actually selling cars without certain semiconductors

in them and have to retrofit those. a very strong market for semiconductors, cross-vehicles and other electronics. >> tesla having trouble with seat adjustment chips, i remember it was looking for not always the high tek-tech st. couple names you like. slack, spunk why do these pop up for you? >> azach manufactures engineered product to make deck systems for your home and a ton of pent-up demand the consumers are in great shape. al with experiences i think would include having a deck on back of the house that affords more outdoor time when -- airfares are extraordinarily high as are hotel rooms. you know, just a family type investment for the home really

good housing prices, investments in the home is a good idea in this environment pap company they tend to underpromise, over deliver. sells at a discount greeowth ra estimate 25% over the next five years. a great name when people night not be looking at goods on the consumer side of things. as for splunk that is a company that recently took out a new ceo, and shot to the upside last earnings report. we know that there's a rumor out there. i can't say "we know" but we know there's a rumor cisco may be out to buy them and think there's a lot of upside in splunk then snap is a company that is also growing very quickly, and they, dependent upon ad revenue

groth growth which is here something we can see, put our arms around and tremendous leverage in this operation so we could see a huge increase in ebitda and free cash flow out of snap. that's a company that we're adding to. >> all right three different stories and even in the case of azek, bargain hunting in a difficult sector. good to have you thanks for your time. coming up, energy having its best start to the year since 1999, but could the largest release of oil reserves in history put a damper on returns from here? we get into that ahead of the president's remarks said to start in about 20 minutes. one texas bank wasting no time raising interest rates on savings and checking it's a. up next, the ceo amid this yield curve. heading to break, declines across the board, dow down almost 200 points. ten-year yield, 232. we're back in a moment.

>> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc. what if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity

of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley.

welcome back to "the exchange." bond yields on a tear since the fed start 9 tightening two weeks ago and inversion between 2s and 10s pretty close posing risks for bank normally borrow short

term, lend longer term frost bank regional bank expecting this and raised interest on savings and checking accounts joining me now, check on shares first. colin frost bankers up 11% parent company challenging but fairly good market for financials. joining me on "the exchange," phil green, chairman and ceo of colin frost bankers. welcome back. >> good to see you >> which part of a yield curve matters most to you? >> for the most immediate impact for us operating leverage the short end of the curve really positioned ourselves over the last year and a half to take advantage of this. we have about, going into it, about 30% of our balance sheet was in a checking account running about 15 basis point and we had, maximum optionality for increased interest rates and it's great that we've been able to see that. we have taken advantage of that. >> in other words, do you

benefit more from the steep three month, two year, three month ten year, versus the part i previously mentioned >> right it's actually the short end of the curve. really what the fed is doing on fed funds rate in the credit rate giving. that's the biggest impact and what our loans are tied to tremendous amount of floating loans. taking advantage of the longer part of the curve with lots of investment capacity and look at parts of the curb that give the movie risk/reward in term what's it gives us. whether mortgage backs, treasuries, look at all of those. >> if you benefit could sit pretty the next 18 months. talking about going from 0.4 of a percent or more. in inflationary period

>> outlook for probability is good every 25 basis point increase in the fed, models shows 20 cents to 25 cents share for profitability. those increases significant to us in terms of profitability the other thing it does, gives the ability to continue to increase rates to our customers, be fair with them, and as we see increases in interest rates let them have some benefit of that and not wait until 100 basis points like we and the industry did in 2017. learned our lesson from that and proving along as rate its crease by the day. >> interesting snappier this time what's happening on the expense side for you >> biggest increase in expenses, labor. not you just for us but for our customers as well. saw minimum wage increase 33% beginning of the year. went froms $15 to $20.

seeing that in so many different areas. in many industries. >> right offsetting benefit you get from higher rates, offset to extent from pressure. also speak to loan demand? we all watch as a gauge of, is the economy still strong and growing quickly or showing signs of moderation? what do you see there? >> markets we are, we are seeing good loans saw really good pipeline really inflection commercial industrial loans back in may and june of last year. that's continued to be consistent and we haven't seen drop-off at this point. >> great news. what about the consumer? where we hear about high levels of liquidity, bank accounts and all the like but are lacking stimulus payments, getting back to normal and seeing a huge sting from inflation >> you know, far as balances, they are higher than they were pre-covid and so a lot of those balances on average are sticky

the part of the economy we worry about is impact inflation has on the less fortunate and lower income segment that's effectively a tax on them as you see prices for energy, prices for food increase as they have, does it mean you guys are texas based, that the region generally benefits from the activity around the oil and gas industries or struggling with the hit that, every consumer is taking on those prices >> yeah. i think the industry is really interesting when you look at it right now. prices are high but you haven't seen increase in production, a lot of that. customers we have, we talked to recently say they're restricted in amount of drilling and amount of production increases they can come up with, because the, the inputs are restricted. sand, for example. down hole production pipe, for example. truck drivers, labor of all kinds. you're seeing one of -- one told

us first time in history they haven't been able to redeploy their cash flow into drilling like they'd like, because you really just don't have the capacity of inputs in order to get it done. one of the things we've seen, lease prices haven't really seen a strong growth at this point, which tells me that you're not seeing a lot of speculation money going into the market there. not seeing a lot of capital move into it. i don't think it's going to be, i think it will be a while before we see much production increase from the oil patch i don't think that big of an impact in texas. >> great insight, hearing from the president shortly on this issue. go to have you on. thanks for your time. >> great thank you. >> phil green with colin frost bankers. still ahead, the president announcing largest release of u.s. oil reserves in history scheduled to speak from the white house in about ten minutes' time. we'll bring you that live. and investors quietly make a big bet on clean energy. what's behind the push into

renewables and which names are benefiting heading to break, a quick look at the dow heat map. shows one to three gainers, one to two i should say, wgrnsalee, home depot, biggest laggards and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone. (vo) verizon unlimited is going ultra! and now, you can too with the offer you just can't miss. for a you can pick the best plan for each employee limited time, get a 5g phone on us! (mom) delightful. (vo) with no trade-in required. plus, 1,000 dollars to help you switch! (dad) nice savings! (vo) yeah it is! verizon is going ultra, so you can get more.

♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

cal: our confident forever plan is possible with a cfp® professional. a cfp® professional can help you build a complete financial plan. visit letsmakeaplan.org to find your cfp® professional. ♪♪ welcome back to "the exchange." dow down 227 lows 30 points off levels half percent beclines across the board looking to close outside the quarter. look at sectors since jan 1 energy far and away outperformer you see here up 40%. utilities distant second 4% gain communication as much as down 11%. four of the top five names in the s&p energy stocks with

oxydoubling in the past three months 101% deign mosaic, halliburton up there as well rounding out, home build es, hxb, said to pose third straight monthly loss, longest losing streak in five years and hr, the two worst performers in the fund. trex down and hr down 40%. home depot biggest loser down 27% since jan 1 on pace for worst quarter in two decades disney on pace for fourth straight negative quarter and worst in two years biggest laggard on the dowe las 12 months. netflix a fifth straight loss. this since 2002 the year it went public time for a cnbc update with

tyler mansionin. >> saints to sinners there in some cases thanks, kelly. talk about your news update at this hour. never agreed to kidnap michigan governor whitmer, testimony of one of the four men trying to about duct the governor before the 2020 elections daniel harris saying not involved in any crimes but "america was on fire over the killing of george floyd by a minneapolis police officer." on the news, how the defense case is shaping up why potential witnesses refuse to take the stand at 7:00 eastern time with shep smith tonight. cia director william burns tested positive for covid. the agency says his symptoms or mild and he will continue to work from home met with president biden yesterday morning but practiced social distancing and burns wore an n-95 mask. the united nations making its biggest ever one-year aid request for a single country

u.n. guterres is asking for money to help afghanistan in the midst of a humanitarian cries. 9 million people facing famine, some selling their children and their own organs to pay for food kelly? >> i thought i had bad news. that's a lot worse tyler, see you soon, thank you. still ahead, standing by for president biden set to speak about his plan to release an unprecedented amount of u.s. oil from reserves. this in an effort to control rising gasoline prices bring you the event soon as it begins. quick check on wti heading to break looking down 4% today under 103 a barrel still above 100, though. back in a moment. (vo) verizon unlimited is going ultra!

and now, you can too with the offer you just can't miss. for a limited time, get a 5g phone on us! (mom) delightful. (vo) with no trade-in required. plus, 1,000 dollars to help you switch! (dad) nice savings! (vo) yeah it is! verizon is going ultra, so you can get more. this is the new world of work. each day looks different than the last. but whatever work becomes, the servicenow platform will make it just, flow. whether it's finding new ways to help you serve your customers, orchestrating a safe return to the office...

wait. an office? what's an office? ...or solving a workplace challenge that's yet to come. wherever the new world of work takes your business, the world works with servicenow.

welcome back, everybody. a live shot of the white house where president biden is expected to speak any moment now about his plans to lower gasoline prices. that includes release of an unprecedented amount of oil reserves this comes as opec plus is sticking to its modest oil output growth strategy talk about all of it with brian sul sullivan not just about the spr release

hearing about penalizing oil and gas companies not using their federal land leases to pump oil. using the, what is it? national defense act in order to produce more mining for batteries, renewable sources a multipronged attack? >> well, it's weird, because on one hand wondering why american companies aren't producing more oil. on the other hand, basically yelling at them and bringing them in front of congress saying -- it is, i would say, had many private conversations with these executives. whatever you think of the industry, kelly, they're human beings blood pumping like the rest of us and confused. messages mixed, signals mixed and a lot of leases offshore and only drill on certain tracks that 9,000 thing, why haven't you used all of your yard to build a house on every inch? what we know got the podium, waiting on the president. the president is expected to

announce as much as 1 million barrel aday release from the petroleum reserve up to six months spr holding 588 million. and max 727 million barrels. now the spr about 80% full down 30 million from last august remember, spr is not one thing it is four storage sites basically salt caves in texas and louisiana, and there is concern, maybe dan pickering you'll have on don't think 500,000, 600,000 most you can extract due to limitations on truck, pipelines, et cetera. 56% is sour crude. there's light and sweet, quote in wti and then sour has to match up with what we refine to lower gasoline prices,

what the president wants i don't think the president cares about oil prices but gr gasoline prices. right now at 92% very high anyway nearly at full steam, see if they can take that much out and if it's actually going to matter even if they do. goldman sachs doesn't think it will. >> spoke with ceo of a texas-babesed bank a moment ago. >> great. >> describes challenges trying to ramp up production and not seeing big increases in leasing prices or in demand for loans around that activity right now dan pickering with us, chief investment of pickering energy partners dan, first of all, even if we could get a million barrel as day we consume about 20 million a day. covering kind of the growth, increase in demand we might be expecting, but to brian's point. can we get 1 million barrels a day out of the spr >> i think the government wants to try we'll find out that would be the most significant volumes tried to

extract. probably don't know until you try, but it's an aggressive goal, and some -- i think we'll have to wait and see it will be half a knmillion to a million a day. leading to the down side in terms of short-term credit. >> how much price action have we seen since the announcement rumored during the session yesterday. 8% total decline in oil prices so far >> yeah. call it $6 to $8 a barrel. in percentage terms not huge these days a meaningful move. i think the other thing to look at the longer dated crude. '23 and '24 up today reflective of you add barrels to the market in 2022 but probably going to refill the spr in '23 and '24. just pushing the problem from '22 into the future.

deferring not solving with this process. >> roughly speaking, taken wti from $110 to $102 a barrel bringing gasoline prices down somewhat what does an approach like this mean for energy stocks looks like erg so far is not actually trying to destroy demand politically unpopular. basically it's facilitating and to an extent having taxpayers, doing rebates, helping facilitate an increase in demand seems bullish for the sector, but what do you think? >> well, look at stocks today and they're up in a time when oil is down at least in the front month i think that's investors saying this is continuing the dynamic of a tight supply-demand market overnime the other thing to consider, getting prices down near term doesn't do anything for energy security it anything makes it worse

lower prices volatility pushes these companies to be afraid of investing. right now it feels like we've got a little bit of the stick being applied by the government. the question is, don't we need carrots to get the industry onboard with energy security >> bri >> yeah. couldn't agree with dan more energy securities is what we're finding out. look what's happening in europe. gasoline almost $10 a gallon and talking about shutting off, don't have the gas, can't afford to make the product. timing is interesting. takes about two weeks from announcement to get oil out of the spr. two weeks from now is about when the last tanker with russian oil is going to arrive in the united states thought it was weeks ago it's not according to vortexta there are 17 tankers on oceans right now coming to america filled with

russian oil. because they bought in that 45-day window. assuming those eventually -- don't get turned around somewhere and make it here the timing of this should correlate almost perfectly with the last ship of russian oil. why do we say that well, takes 3% of our oil off the market not a lot but in a tight market. replace that with a million barrel a day if they can do that from the spr that that timing. be perfectly blunt six months from then is mid-november 8's a lot of political electioneerings because inflation is bad, bad, bad, want gasoline to stay low as possible from now -- by the way, haven't even hit summer. once people start to drive, can't afford airfares, gasoline spikes and haven't built a new refinery in america since what 1977

when you were 1-year-old >> addressing that, you do hear think we're setting up a five-year bull run with the energy sector with everything going on here? >> i do. we were tight. a cyclical recovery under way before the russian invasion in the ukraine and their issues now an energy security dynamic where we have to find trustworthy barrels that don't come from bad actors, and to do that we're going to have to ramp up in the u.s. i think u.s. production goes back to record levels. we were 13 million barrels a day at peak i think we'll go higher than that. so to do that with energy at 4% of the s&p 500, and it's now strategic? doesn't make sense to me i think we'll see it double. got to be 10% of the s&p in a world we are trying at security energy and more trustworthy barrels. >> you like schlumberger and

diamondback, haven't gotten into the nat gas piece of this. brine, stick around. waiting to hear from the president. a quick break. when we come back, president biden remarking about his plans to lower gasoline prices for u.s. consumers. and russia's invasion of ukraine boosting investments in renewable energy as well looking at funds attracting the most money and most popular stksitn at stksitn at that's next. you get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost. verizon is going ultra, so your business can get more.

(vo) verizon unlimited is going ultra! and now, you can too with the offer you just can't miss. for a you get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost. limited time, get a 5g phone on us! (mom) delightful. (vo) with no trade-in required. plus, 1,000 dollars to help you switch! (dad) nice savings! (vo) yeah it is! verizon is going ultra, so you can get more. sam burns. welcome back, everybody. waiting remarks from president biden on the largest ever release from the strategic petroleum reserves and take it live when it starts. by the way, only one plank of government's plan to try to lower energy prices. the national defense act invoked for battery mining for materials needed for 2345 and comes as clean energy funds seeing inflows this month as russia's war in ukraine drives oil supply

concerns and a bright spot joining us to break down numbers and big movers pipa >> russia's invasion of ukraine putting energy on the fast track two reasons. concerns about energy security investment in areas like wind and solar. this month renewable seen $642 million in inflows reversing three straight months of outflows according to data from morningstar direct where the money's going. inve invesco solar fund attracting lion's share of the dollars. drilling down more, where funds place bigger bets. most widely held stocks in actively managed clean energy funds, and these have the largest portion of flow adjustment market cap held

thclean energy funds one side european commission laying out a plan to "dash into renewable energy at lightning speed. the flip side, they face numerous headwinds. >> pippa, telling us about the tearariffs the other day 50% to 100% tariffs over the next 12 to 18 months, a planning problem anyone looking to do large-scale solar now. >> numbers 50% to 250%. >> wow. >> exactly all of this policy uncertainty here and getting indication from the biden administration, hear more in a minute, presumably, about invoking the defense protection act for critical raw materials for batteries and have policy agendas like that the flip side, tariffs case. section 201 carrots extended in february uncentercertainty there what the

longer term looks like tax credit, critical to having projects deployed. you don't know the time frame or costs you won't attract capital. one thing that's holding the industry back a little. >> not to put you on the spot, if talking about more support for mining key materials for battery construction and other type things what are stocks people should watch? >> currently only one lithium mine here in the u.s. run by a company and lithium americas and piedmont lithium and mp materials in california mining for rare earths. a company in michigan, focused on nickel. these company doss have plans in place, but one other bottleneck is the permitting process, very expensive. >> and down about 3% year to date here. you knew that like back of your hand and glad i asked. pippa thanks. awaiting president biden on plans for lowering energy prices

bring in kayla tausche and brian sullivan as well kayla, anything you add in terms of context, timing of the decision and broadness of it i saw nancy pelosi not ruling out idea of gasoline rebates earlier today? >> yeah. everything is on the table that's been the administration's line last week in brussels, the main topic of discussion among the g7 leaders. coordinated release of emergency reserves we expect more allies to follow suit after the u.s. makes this announcement a lot of coordination behind the scenes, and senior officials today made it clear that the 1 million barrel per day release is simply what the u.s. is doing and allies will do more on top of that. six-month time frame as brian pointed out earlier is very -- not coincidental that it will align with the midterm elections because voters increasingly

saying inflation and cost the gasoline towards top of their concerns what they want, kelly, the president to do something about. >> absolutely right. brian, seen inflation become wind of "the" number one concern here how much can, though, u.s. control this how much does it depend on events in ukraine? >> i don't know how much it depends on ukraine at all. i mean, might be 15%, kelly. just throwing that out don't forget the price of greene and oil went up by about 50%. >> here's president biden making his announcement -- today i want to talk with you about the cost here at home of putin's decision to brutally and savagely invade a sovereign nation the fact is he's causing thousands of deaths and untold destruction. working with our nato allies and our european partners and beyond that we, we are responding we're aiding the ukrainian people with both economic and

militarily while leading the most punishing economic sanctions against russia, ever used against another nation in place and increasingly thus for these actions are crippling russia's economy, helping ukrainians fight for their country and ease their suffering. but as i've said from the start, putin's war is imposing cost on america and our allies and democracies around the world today i want to talk about one aspect of putin's war that affects and has real affects on the american people. putin's price hike that americans and allies feel at the pump i know how much it hurts you heard me say before i sgru up in a family like many of you where the price of a gallon of gasoline went up it was a discussion at the kitchen table. our family budgets, your family budgets, to fill a tank, none of it should hinge on whether a dictator declares war. so today i'm laying out a

two-part plan. not only to ease the pain that families are feeling right now, but to end this era of dependence answers uncertainty, and to laya new foundation for true and lasting american energy independence parenthetically, imagine if you income, europe didn't have to count on russian oil? coun on russian oil if they were energy independent. it would change the nature of so much the problem we face with gas prices has two roots first, the pandemic. when covid struck the demand for oil plummeted and production slowed down worldwide. because of the strength and the speed of the recovery demand shot back up faster than the supply why that's why the cost of gas began to rise last year the second root is vladimir putin. the start of this year gas was about $3.30 a gallon

today it is about $4.20 and higher in many states. nearly a dollar more in less than three months and the reason for that because of putin's war and now many people not buying russian oil. i banned the import of russia oil in america democrats and republicans in congress called for it and supportered it it was the right thing to do but i said at the time it will come with a cost as russian oil comes off the global market supply of oil drops and prices are rising. now putin's price hike is hitting americans at the pump. which brings me to the first part of my plan. to immediately increase the supply of oil our prices are rising because of putin's action there isn't enough supply and the bottom line is if we want lower prices we need more oil supply right now u.s. oil companies recording the

largest profits in years they have a choice. one, put the prochts to productive use, restarting idle wells or producing on the sites they lease passing on savings and lowering the right at the pump or they can as some do exploit the situation, ship the profits to the investors and while american families struggle to make ends meet this is a moment of consequence for the world and pain at the pump for american families and patriotism i want to acknowledge the companies that have already announced to increase immediate production investing money to produce more oil. and also clean technology we need to reduce the dependence on oil in the future. they have everything they need, nothing's standing in their way and they have indicated they will produce an extra 1 million

barrels of oil a day probably starting as early as this fall that's progress but some companies have been blunt. they don't want to increase supply because putin's price hike means higher profits. one ceo acknowledged they don't care if the price a barrel is $200 they're not going to step up the production i say, enough. enough of lavishing excessive profits on investors and buybacks when american people and the world is watching. oil companies made nearly $80 billion in profit last year and this year expected to continue to soar. this is not the time to sit on record profits but to step up for the good of your country and the world to invest in immediate production that we need to respond to vladimir putin to provide some relief for the

customers. look, i'm a capitalist i have no problem with corporations turning a profit but companies have an obligation beyond the shareholders, to customers, community and country. no american company should take advantage of a pandemic pandemic or vladimir putin's actions. investing the profits in production and innovation is what they should do. invest in customers and it is good for the business, as well right now oil and gas industry sitting on nearly 9,000 unuseded but permitted on federal lands more than a million unused acres they have a right to pump on families can't afford they sit on their hands so, to help execute this first part of the plan i call for a use it or lose it policy

congress should make companies pay fees on leases on federal wells they haven't used in years. companies already producing won't be affected but those on idle wells have to start producing or pay the price for inaction look, the action i'm calling for will make a real difference over time but it takes months not days for companies to increase production that's why the next part of the plan is so important today i'm authorizing the release of 1 million barrels per day for the next 6 months over 180 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve. this is a wartime bridge to increase oil supply until production ramps up later this year and it is by far the largest release of the national reserve in our history,

providing historic amount of supply for six-month bridge to the fall and will use the revenue from selling the oil now to restock the strategic petroleum reserve when prices are lower. we will be ready for future emergencies. i have coordinated with allies and partners around the world. already we have commitments from other countries to release tens of millions of additional barrels into the market. together the efforts will provide well over a million barrels a day. nations to deny putin the ability to weaponize the energy resources against american families and families in democracies around the world now for the first part is an immediate crisis the second part is declaring real american energy independence in the long term so we never have to deal with this

problem again. ultimately we need to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels altogether we need long-term security over vulnerability. we need to double down on the commitment to clean energy and tackling the climate crisis and we can do that by passing my plan that's literally before the senate right now. the united states congress right now has been there well over a motto speed the transition to clean energy future. that's made in america with american products and american values. we need to embrace all the tools and technologies that can help us free us from the dependence on fossil fuels. move us toward a more home grown clean technology technologies made by american companies and workers to bolster domestic supply chains here at home and export the technologies

around the world that's why today i'm issuing a derektive and for the critical materials in batteries for electrical vehicles and storage. lithium, graphite, nickel and so much more. we knee to end the reliance on china and other countries for inputs and use every tool i have to make that happen. yes, building a made in america clean energy future will help safeguard the national security, tackle climate change and ensure that the millions of good paying jobs for generations to come but most important thing my plan will do right away is save your family money here's what i mean under my plan which is before the congress now we can take advantage of the next generation of electric vehicle that is a drive saves about $80 a month

from not having to pay gas at the pump if your home is power by solar or heat pumps you can save about $500 a month on average. the ceos of 11 of america's largest utility companies came to see me at the white house several weeks ago telling me if we pass the plan now typical families see savings immediately and costs will come down morea we develop cutting edge energy storage technologies, clean hydrogen technology, nuclear, carbon capture technologies and by the way this week's the benefit i included in the bipartisan infrastructure law to help families weatherize the homes are being delivered. my administration is making $3.2 billion available from this legislation to provide up to

$6,500 direct payment for working class families to be able to weather. >> >>ize their homes. it's a direct grant, this program has been around for a while and in the pastz delivered to families average families another $327 in savings when they weatherize. now we have the ability to reach ten times as many families with the legislation that we passed in the legislation in addition we set new standards to boost real economies for new vehicles sold in motor vehicle within five years we'll travel ten miles more on every gallon we have because the average fuel economy of 49 miles to the gallon is required that means hundreds of dollars of saverings for families at the pump and similar standards for appliances from air conditioner to microwave,