has indicated earlier today. looks like the fed has not ruled out the possibility of it. either it happens on its own or on their own accord. >> yeah. all right, steve, appreciate you jumping on the phone, i know it's quick but nonetheless important as we watch the inversion in the 2/10 spread "fast money" picks it up right now. live from nasdaq marketsite in time square this is "fast money", i'm melissa lee, tonight's trader lineup dan nathan, pete najarian -- ahead on fast everyone who wants a tv, phone have one a start up sending shock waves to the consumer lengt electronic industry rattling stocks plus, all that glitters and glows, gold with its best year since 2020 uranium up even more nearly 35% up this year. how long will this commodity

climb last from the dog house to the pet house, stocks that started the year in the basement have clawed their way back to the main floor, are they worth a look for the rest of the year we start with s&p dropping steeply in the last hour, bringing losses to the year to nearly 5%. the continued volatility comes as markets brace for the next round of earnings seasons and we could be in for a rough ride today retailer h & m reported steep slow down in sales in recent weeks due to the war in ukraine, revenue 6% in march compared to 23% the quarter before we told you rest it is likened to the bear stern collapse so if market priced in the earnings season ahead, the performance in the first quarter, brian kelly, was that discounting maybe the lack of visibility that companies will have in the second quarter or is there more main to come? >> i think there might be more pain to come

at least in terms if you look at analysts estimated have not reduced estimates on the s&p 500, haven't redupsed estimates on stocks, mike willis argues stocks have not priced in this slow down in growth and some of the more high-frequency data points, we saw china pmi and now contraction. we know there's lockdowns there. we know europe has massive inflation problems as well as issues with the economy slowing down all that combined i don't think the market has priced it in. i think that's a big risk for the market here because we've seen no -- shouldn't say no -- but haven't seen many analyst down grades at all. >> not materially. if you think of the consensus for s&p earnings expected up 8 to 9% year-over-year. >> right $220 that places s&p around these levels at about 20 times or so. that may not seem that

expensive, especially what we got used to in the age of qe but it is above the 10-year average about 17 times or so ly just say this, facts they put out on earnings insight every friday and john butters i've been reading for years, it's interesting, he suggested q1 consensus estimates have been lower 1%. >> that's it. >> and the back half have actually gone up a bit to me, i think if you're playing for the back-end loaded sort of 2 2021 -- 2022 -- we were supposed to be reflecting the economy it doesn't make sense and you say to yourself given all of the uncertainty about the global economy and pace of the reopening, s&p earnings are probably too high, i'm not a strategist but will probably be low to mid single digits at best. how do you correct for that? stock market has to come in as

estimates have not come down and that will be the result of q1 earnings and q2 guidance. >> two potential pain points when earnings season starts, bonawyn, that is what has happen in recent weeks as the quarter closed did we see the slow down h & m was talking about across various businesses and industries and what's the advise intergoing to q2 and the rest of the year let's say q2 what's the visibility just for q2 that's kind of difficult too >> yeah, i would agree, given all of the geopolitical unrest and uncertainty we really don't know add in the inflationary factors, talking about the recent or abundant readings in terms of short-term pulses on the market, we're going to get backward looking numbers and what you're seeing with shares even when they had strong numbers in previous quarters if the guidance is anything but stellar the stocks get punished. this happens one of two ways, multiple expansion and that

subsists given what might we drawdown in earnings or you will see a stock correction as you know i've been in short-term i haven't bought into the bear market rally and i think it's time to pay the piper. >> are you in the bear camp? too, pete i ask because the other thing dan mentioned was the extent of lockdowns and what we're seeing in shanghai. heard from tesla saying the production shutdown is going longer there are empty malls in shanghai, gleaming mambas, completely empty no consumers there, have we factored that? >> i can tell you this, everyone's right when they use the word uncertainty, that's exactly what we're facing, also inflation, those are the head winds we're looking at am i in the bearish camp, probably not you probably knew that before you asked. but i'm certainly more cautious

than in the past, mel. i will give a great example, i have not found opportunity to buy stocks in the portfolio even when we were at the lower end of what's been a pretty interesting first quarter of the year. just because i'm just not convinced. and because of that i'm doing a lot in the options world but doing very, very little in terms of longer-term when i say that, if i were a little bit more bearish i probably would have looked for stocks i thought made sense on the selloff. i haven't found that so i remain cautious but it's a great trading environment. i really don't know that i've seen a better trading environment since i've been a trader since 1992. so that gives a little bit of an idea this has really been remarkable, whether talking oil one day, technology the next, semiconductors the next, and by the way, can go to the uranium space. wherever you want the to go, there's been incredible opportunities for trade. but that being said, i still think you have to be very cautious. >> pete makes a really good

point, it has been an amazing trading market for a host of different risk assets not just stocks but when you think of the stock market and some of the bounces we ooze use bounces, we use terms like bear market, it happens so quickly, q1 this year and last one 20% peak to trough decline happened in q1 in 2020 and corrected back very quickly i guess what i would focus on is we still have this condition where about 10 stocks are buoying the major averages on the quarter, on the year, apple down 1%. nasdaq down 9.5%. if you look at the outperformance we seen from amazon this year, it underperformed last year, those major names are masking what continues to be really bad price action across a host of sectors. we can talk about energy and stocks at 40% but they make up low-single digits of the s&p 500. so those handful of names will

continue to do the heavy lifting then there will be a lot of continued weakness in other ones, and lot of stocks 50% off their lows still off 50% from their highs have a ball, trade them, it's great if you're nimble and use options the way pete does and all this sort of stuff but most people don't have that i'm going to tell you this, when you go 50% from a low after declining 70 or 80% and you retest those prior lows it's light's out people, that's it. there's no hope for some of those names going forward. we've seen this in the financial crisis and in the post dot com crisis i guess the point is stay nimble if you're going to trade but don't fall in love with trades because when some things rally and make new lows you will own those for a very long time. >> we have breaking news we want to get to on amazon's union vote in alabama deidre bosa with the one or twoey. >> we have early results from the alabama second election, it is much closer for the

unionization size 875 in favor, 893 against last year lost by over 2 to 1 ratio so the results are getting closer there's more than 400 challenged ballots they need to sort out before the final result. remember there's another union vote being counted in staten island and showing the union with the lead but they're still counting, we should get the results tomorrow, the take away, melissa, unionization at amazon is gaining momentum. we'll bring you more as we get it. >> deidre bosa, thank you. it's gaining momentum for other companies as well. starbucks and number of stores and regions vote on unionization, pete, to me that spells higher wages, good for the consumer, good for the workers there, how do you think it effects the shareholders though >> well, and i think that's why we've seen certain stocks we really love and know we use and know we see lines out the door

and we all know about amazon but that's right, mel, when it really comes down to it all these are going to be impactful to those companies going forward which is why you look at starbucks, remember everyone loved it when it was $130 a share and suddenly nobody likes it when it drops back down so i think that's partially because of the nervousness of what is going forward, how's this going to impact their earnings as we look ahead, and the fact that in china which is where their growth was really coming from that was something that was shut down so there's a lot of different head winds we're talking right now but this is certainly something i think everybody has been watching very, very closely, starbucks, amazon or others, where this is something that is going to be impacting what we're all going to look at in the forward markets, right, we're never looking behind, always looking ahead and that's something looking ahead a lot of people are nervous about. >> but looking back at the conversation we just had, wages in the u.s., this is a big part

of the corporate earnings, if you're worried about stagflation environment or wage-price spiral that is the things that will weigh on earnings, those are the things to caught strategist to rework the numbers lower another thing i'd say, if you are expecting growth from u.s. multi nationals they're not having the same wage pressures as we are. deglobalization will hurt them and actually make them that much more competitive i will take you back, prior to the pandemic, we were worried about automation, talking about universal basic income and guarantee you all these games with major consumer facing companies they're investing into a.i., it's going to go back to automation and a smaller component of the workforce will have the benefit of the higher wages once we have the pandemic and geopolitical stuff in the rearview mirror but right now it's a huge risk to corporate earnings for s&p 500 this year. >> rising inflation and high energy prices -- largest ever release from the

oil reserve 1 million per day for the next he six months but oil down up 33% still is this year for the eighth positive quarter in a row. will the commodity complex continue to grind higher bring in citi managing director and it's great to have you with us and get your thoughts as always it seems like this is a very short-term solution. any release from spr is usually a short-term solution but it also makes it less appealing perhaps for oil companies to actually open a spigot, so to speak, and produce more. you're going to all of a sudden lower the price of oil forcefully like that you're not giving inten theive to the -- incentive to the markets to actually pump more >> depends how you look at it, prices are higher than expected this time of year and yes certain companies dug into, doesn't matter if oil goes to $200 we're not going to drill more but i think the white house has it right this time they talked to enough companies

to know they incentivise them and talk in the white house fact sheet about using the national production act of 1950 which mandates that companies produce. they didn't specifically talk about oil. they talked about metals, actually they talked about metal that's are needed for battery-power, particularly for long-lasting batteries. they mentioned it in the context of the spr release which they also talked about how they were willing to buy back oil and told companies more or less what price they'd be willing to buy it back. i think this has incentivized a number of companies to raise the drilling activity. we're already seeing it in the increase in drilling rates and i think we'll be surprised to the up-side the white house is talking about getting to 1 million barrels a day of growth by the end of the year and i think it's going to be potentially bigger than that if we look at it on a debt/debt

basis and even year on year basis we're looking at 1.3 and 1.5 million barrels a day of incremental u.s. oil and natural gas supply over and above the 1 million a day release. go ahead >> hey, brian kelly, i'm curious on the spr what we're hearing is that there's diesel shortages, at austin airport might have run out of jet fuel the other day, the products are in shortage and does is this release impact that because it will have a big impact if you can't drive your truck or fly your plane. >> i think it's going to have an impact the impact on diesel is going to come from multiplicity of factors and we have to remember one of them has to do with not oil but natural gas. we had natural gas prices skyrocketing this year for the first time in my memory the

price of natural gas was higher on equivalent then either diesel or propane i think we're looking at parallel things that are underway that are going to reduce natural gas prices, that are going to see a switching as a result of that back to natural gas from oil, but more importantly, if you are a refiner, there's upgrading heavy oil or upgrading crude you need natural gas stock and a lot of that shortage is in addition to the high price of natural gas, switching to diesel, a lot of it is inability to run refineries, particularly in europe which is normally short diesel and were uneconomic even when diesel cracks at $35 barrel i think we will have to ease into that. >> -- i'm curious your outlook for some of the crops outlook next

year right now we're seeing crops not being planted in some parts of the world because they can't be planted, and changed to use less fertilizer intensive crops then say, corn, requiring more fertilizer, what is the longer term impact for the consumer. >> the long-term impact in crops is usually 18 months, about as long as it takes to get from one cycle to another but we're in an unusual circumstance in which ukraine and russia are close to 30% global wheat production. corn production is significant in ukraine as well it is hard to imagine how a ukraine crop is going to be reaped let alone sown for the next season. we're seeing a big impact already particularly on emerging markets, the food prices where we live, but we have to remember all of that turmoil in the middle east in 2011, so-called arab spring of 2011 was due to

wheat shortage from ukraine and russia and we're in the mode to have that happen and with the economic restrictions imposed one way or another, russia being the world's largest exporter of fertilizers, we're seeing problems ahead this summer and i think we'll see that on the inflation side, we're seeing deflation airy efforts underway on the energy side but not much to do with ininflation on ags and we're worried about the political turmoil that might result as we saw in egypt and tunisia in 2011. >> wow ed we appreciate it, we want to turn your attention to the 2/10 spread gone negative right now 2.7 and 2.339, that's something we're watching obviously this is a moment in time right now we'll see if it sticks in terms of the inversion of the yield curve. brian kelly, i thought it was

really interesting what ed mentioned arab spring, 2011 seems like three lifetimes ago, but yes, a wheat shortage caused that and we could be in for more of that to come in the year or two ahead. >> yeah, and i don't think it's going to be isolated just to the air on world or are ab arab world or just to africa they will hit hardest, but you mentioned a lot of crops in the u.s. are switching, we may have a corn or soy bean shortage or something we haven't thought about, maybe the livestock won't get the feed they need there's all unintended consequences we will see in the fall and you have to be worried about it, so there's a couple ways to do it, trade ag, or buy yourself a deep freezer and get a bunch of meat like bk did. >> i love to buy in bulk personally that's one way of doing it but someone in a small new york city apartment you're probably

just going to pay higher prices. consumers are paying higher rent, in terms of inflation there's a lot of pressures which won't be alleviated and may even get worse as time goes on, like food >> i mean, you hit the nail on the head outside of food i would point to rents, those are fixed costs, without room there it's a conscious outlook at best. >> yeah. all right. coming up, a chip dip, warning from one semi stock, what the company is flagging consumer demand and the r word inflation and rates in major indices post quarter loss in two years what's stock, we'll break it down when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money", check out shares of gamestop surging in the after-hours session, the company planning a stock split in the form of a dividend, stock up 14%. see this time and time again, is

in this case it is interesting because it really impacts options trading and that is a stock people like to trade the options for. >> right it was pretty interesting today, mel, because the majority of what they were buying this is not totally unusual, the majority what they were buying was in the front month and specifically on the call side. that's not totally unusual but 71% of all of the trades today were on the call side. interesting part about it was as we're going into the final day, obviously tomorrow is expiration, you look at the 170 strike about 8 or 9,000 were bought the 180 strike we see 12,000 of those being bought and 16,000 of the 200s now, honestly, like, why are they buying those going into this point in time other than the fact that maybe somebody had some form of something out there that had everybody going for these options. that was pretty interesting, i thought, close to 50,000 options were trading between 170 and 200 to the upside and the stock, of

course, in the after-hours is trading nicely at 196, 97. i'm not looking at it right this moment. >> 192. >> tell what you -- okay, those options will start to move quickly, those 180s, 170s, 190s may even kick into 200s depending on where we are tomorrow it is interesting to watch how this game is plays, gamestop being the name today. >> hmm, eyebrows raised, bonawyn, are yours >> definitely eyebrows raised. he calls out some really good points, that gamma squeeze rushing to the upside calls i don't understand it in a one-day option but it is pretty much textbook, has been the playbook for these meme stocks and i think the split will only make that a more relatively tradeable trade. it is a boom for retailer investors and tends to lead to higher prices. >> all right we're just getting started on "fast money." here's what's coming up next.

>> the r-word, investors fearing the worst as the markets post its first quarterly loss in two years, where do stocks head next plus pedal to the metal, gold glitters as uranium shines, how to get in on it, traders will break it down next. you're watching "fast money" live from nasdaq marketsite in time square we're back right after this th powerful, easy-to-use tools, and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most. plus, zero-dollar commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. [ding] get e*trade and start trading today. never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers, plus some of the lowest options in futures contracts prices around. [ding] get e*trade and start trading today. ♪ ♪

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chips getting checked today, shares of taiwan semi dropping more than 2% after the company said it's seeing signs slowing demand for smart phones and pc's

and meanwhile amd firm citing risks to pc and gaming market in 2023 is this full forward, dan? >> maybe, the fact we're talking about lockdowns in q2 in 2022 is shocking look at taiwan semidconductor came in january this year raised their sales guidance and announced they would spend $44 billion in capex apple is 25% customer of this chip maker you have to think of what are the reverbations near. so the company will report in a couple weeks, again, do they miss the guidance they just gave do they guide down for q2? these are the things that should weigh on the broader market. a stock like this is down 30% from its recent highs but look at the rally it just had one of the largest components i think the major citi etf where stocks like this large components. >> if you think about the political risks involved to

taiwan semi and others, bk, if there's a move to reshoring that actually sticks that could benefit the chip industry here, if that gets underway, and the political tensions in china continue. >> yeah and i think we're going to see that. i'm old enough to remember there was actually a chip shortage because that was last year, so i can still remember that. and it's funny how we kind of flipped here but also remember chips are very cyclical so this may be an early warning sign about what's going on in the economy, like we said, we already know china is contracting. so are we starting to see the early signs of economic slow-down globally, are the chips the canary in the coal mine, pay attention to that at the very least. >> hearing from chips, sofa, oh, crop tops with h & m, list is growing a cross industries as the show goes on. >> the crop top part threw me

off a little bit ha ha ha i get what you're saying abdomen you know what, whe and you know what, when you listen to rhu they talk about the price has to go higher, when you hear that, do they have the same kind of pricing power that are in other types of businesss? i don't think so because of that, yeah, i think this is something we all have to make sure we're paying close attention to this whole thing, mel. because this is something that is going to get worse before it gets better. >> bonawyn, give me a trade on a chip maker >> long-term i actually like the intel story for all of the reasons you just mentioned in terms of domestic production, wrapping up foundry ability and manufacturer ability. looking at amd and taiwan semi i want to rotate to a name like nvidia i know the multiple makes you want to shake your head and take a second look but being they have specialized situation in terms of gaming being viewed as

an alternative to other streaming services and other consumption i can at least wrap my mind around why that sticking may have room for growth. >> let's get another check at market today dow dropping all three falling more than 1.5% putting in worst quarter in two years. two-engineer topping two-year topping the 10-year rate moments ago, inversion, the i-word let's bring in cnbc economic reporter steve liesman, what are you finding it's chatting with all those fed folks out there, steve? >> you know, they're obviously not predicting recession, what's really interesting to me is they are not strictly ruling it out i think that comes from two sources, first is there's a lot of unknowns out there. they don't really know how to process what's happening now with the ukraine war, the extent to which vital commodities are both up in price and may even

not be available you look at what's going on with putin and idea to make europeans pay for natural gas in rubles, an interesting bit of bricksmanship going on there the other source is they don't quite know how to get inflation under control using their tools of balance sheet reduction and interest rates, how much pressure they're going to have to give on the economy so they say, look, the economy is in good shape, we'll probably get a decent jobs number tomorrow and the economy can take interest rate hikes but it's really a question of 2023, will there have to be a slow down? will there have to be a decline or flattening of growth in order to really get inflation under control caused by the feds raising rates above neutral to clamp down on the economy. >> when we talk to strategists 2023 if they forecast any chance of recession it's in 2023.

that's what steve is talking about. >> i think steve would defer to us on the stock market, which would discount it by the time we have that recession especially if it is orchestrated by design as bk has been saying, that's what the fed has to do, they have to slow things down to some deepg. degree i don't belief 15% drop in one quarter well before they started raising rates that's going to be it so the probability of recession of course it increases but doesn't mean it has to be attached to a bear -- market. >> -- curve, i know we make a big deal as we speak right now the yield curve is in fact inverted it's a moment in time we'll see how long this persists but whether or not that is a contributing factor. >> write it down, according to my data, looking at the tix data it was 4:42 and 10 seconds the

moment of the false alarm few days ago it got to 0 it really inverted minus 0.1, minus 0.2 at 4:42 in the after-hours. as i said the fed likes to look at three month to two year sometimes ten year it's more interested given by the markets over the time period they're trying to forecast there's also economic analysis to show the near-term curves do a better job predicting growth and forecasting growth they're going to look at 2/10 and know the record. they will also look at a variety of different spreads out there, investment-grade and non-investment grade spread you look at mortgages and what's happening to financial conditions, that's the big interest, how much strength is exercised on the economy on one hand and concerned about whether or not balance sheet reduction

creates dislocation in the market such as they would have to ease up, they're go too fast. >> all right steve, always good to see you, thank you. steve liesman. brian kelly, i'm going to answer this question and sound flip on my part, maybe, but do you care what fed officials see in terms of recession they got the inflation part of things wrong and i don't mean any disrespect -- it's very difficult to forecast. let's put that out there i don't forecast >> yeah. >> so it's easy for me to criticize. >> exactly well as yogi berra says predictions are hard, especially when they're about the future. however, i will say that the fed has a huge creditability problem. it was less than a fortnight ago powell was on tv and said i think the odds of a soft landing are pretty good and now all of a sudden this story that maybe they'll be looking for a recession. jpmorgan with a report out today

that maybe bank of england would report recession so clearly an e-mail went down that said we need to prepare the ground for potential of recession. my view is has exactly what they want you cannot fight the fed in this environment which makes me a lot move cautious in this environment. they did not want asset prices to rip higher, they don't want the economy to rip higher. they need things to slow down. in my book that's a recession and in my book that's coming. >> coming up, metal mania rallying to close the quarter, gold and silver on the rise and checking the come back kids making big moves off their lows. don't go anywhere, "fast money" back in two. >> announcer: get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast. catch us any time anywhere follow today on your favorite podcasting app 'rba rhtft ts. thing epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g.

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welcome back to "fast money" oil and ag not the only commodities posting big gains to start 2022 gold up 6% finishing the best quarter in two years and uranium

35% up and plaid pal aidium also a big winner can the commodities keep climbing what's your favorite metal, brian kelly? >> wow, i've never been asked that question before you know, my favorite metal is probably -- let's go with a favorite rock, like ura uranium. you have a relatively new etf with the spot uranium trust that's buying uranium, that's where i'm long you look a europe they will have to turn the power plants back on and as we get to electrified grid the story for uranium gets better because it's the only energy source that comes close to hydrocarbon when talking about energy efficiency so the story for uranium is fantastic i don't know if it is shiny, it's just yellow right

can't go green without yellow. >> and you need some blue too but that's a minor detail. pete i think you're all hopped up on the uranium trade as well. >> i am, i'm right there with you, bk. i love it. i've been loving it this year it's been nothing but hitting on a daily basis, seeing different names whether next gen or uuuu, a uranium play, also ccj, also hitting on a daily basis, hit twice today, unusual option activity the movement out of uranium is certainly huge lithium is another one we are seeing more of, along with copper, a lot has to do with, the ev-space those did stand out. you mentioned gold i like gld. i like g dx. i like individual names a little bit more but those have been an area i found a little bit of comfort in because when you are looking around for something to be able to be a little bit safer place maybe gold is that play, and

that's why i have some positions on there as well. >> bonawyn, i know you've traded solar in the past and i'm wondering how you view the commodity spike because it's delaying or cancelling a lot of projects that had been underway because you need a lot of copper and other metals in order to put in these installations >> yeah, definitely causing disruption in terms of input i'm still bullish on the trend and think given where we are with other base commodities, crude and others, it serves as a good substitute, along with the rail. i think supplement the position a little bit with the rails being that they just don't have the same challenges in terms of input cost but ultimately, as you seen them come out and say, they want to make this shift. if you look at everything from the local transport authorities to the federal government you are seeing this trend here and i think that trend will tend to hold and i think after we get through this the shocks to the base commodities will only

accelerate that. >> all right coming up, call it a come back, names that made big swings since quarter lows, are they still worth owning, we find out next and crypto envogue who is trading digital currencies the number ahead when "fast money" returns at ameriprise financial, our advice is personalized. based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

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welcome back to "fast money", with q1 in the books we're checking out stocks that early in the year were big-time ugly ducklings, but thanks to major comebacks from their lows are well on their way to becoming lovely swans. new corp up 60% from lows. american airline up 42%. apple with 13% turn around from the lows not just stocks doing a about-face, bitcoin surging nearly 30% since the lows of the quarter. so which big names do you buy even after such a big rebound, pete, to you first >> i'm going to surprise you, mel, i know you think i'm going to go with apple but i'm not i'm going to go to nucor i like the steel names in that

space, nucor have pricing power with record numbers and great free cash flow and they trade incredibly cheap so for those reasons i think they'll be for this year at least 2022 they're in a great position to continue to do very, very well. but i think you have to be smart because by the end of the year you got to start to take your chips off the table. >> pete? >> i might surprise you but i would be seller of apple. if you bought this thing, some bought it very well, it got down to 150. helped support moving average. the whole nine yards the break out level. this went from 150 to 180 in a straight line in less than two weeks. do the math on that, forget about the percentages, it's half trillion in market place what did we say about taiwan semi, it's 25% customer so i don't think this discounts anything we talked about 25 multiple s&p 500 this trades at

28 times expected to have lower growth than sms i would s&p 500, to me i'd be a seller. >> i'm not surprised about that. i will guess bitcoin for brian kelly, am i right? >> yeah. that's -- boy you really went out on a limb on that one, but, yes, bk is a long-term bull on bitcoin. i will give you what's been going on and the rationale if you look at bitcoin it's starting to get correlated with gold a little bit more you're starting to pick up this inflation hedge narrative. we're seeing that seep into the market you know we talked a couple weeks ago about the fact negative real rates are back and it's generally positive for bitcoin and sydney had a great report out today on the meta verse talking about it 8 to $13 trillion market. bitcoin can capture some of that or bitcoin or ethereum you're talking multi trillion dollar market where bitcoin is only

$800 billion right now long-term there's a lot of stuff here the risk is is of course if the fed decides to really crush things it will be hard for all risk assets but for me you want to have some exposure to bitcoin >> bonawyn which former ugly duckling do you like. >> i'm tempted to good with lilly, all swans deserve to be included and i have a slightly different take, if you look at the concentration of names in the major indices you're over owned. so purely from allocation asset standpoint it's tough to by that i also trade nucor trading 6 forward pe, strong cash flow with 2 or $3billion on the balance sheet i don't love the manufacturing exposure but as pete said it has pricing power and for those reasons, given the ducks gave me, mel, i got to choose one

it's that one. >> we're not shooting anything that's another game. [ laughter ] just outrage from animal loverros out there i got your point, bonawyn. coming up, more -- video gaming -- we got more bitcoin banter ahead. crypto, more popular than you might think. the big number of americans dabbling in this trade details next plus we're looking under the hood robinhood, sharing dropping more than 7% and options traders are betting on more pain ahead details when "fast money" returns. we're rewriting the book on investing 101. new investors can open an account and get $101 to split across the top five stocks in the s&p 500®. you can also unlock short videos, step-by-step guides, and other easy-to-use tools designed for people just getting started. plus, investment professionals are on standby 24/7

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welcome back to "fast money." how's this for a big number, more than 1 in 5 americans are now bought, traded or sold cryptocurrency according to a new survey including 50% of men between ages 18 and 49, only 19% responded saying they view crypto positively, that's odd. bitcoin in theory have given up gains for the year, bk, are you surprised by the number. to think about 1 in 5 people on

the street traded crypto, staggering. >> yeah, no, it doesn't surprise me. it's the people's investment, first asset class the people had been in before the institution has come so no based on boots on the ground i've seen doesn't surprise me at all. >> let's talk now about one of the platforms you can use to buy or sell crypto, robinhood, getting crushed today, one option trader making huge bet these losses are about to get a lot worse, mike khouw with the actions. >> we saw robinhood trading 1.7 times average daily of volume, 14th most active single-stock option by contract volume trading today. although calls did outpace puts, bearish buts outpaced bullish one, measure that it relative to call buying and put selling. the biggest was the sweep of april 13 puts, somebody bought 3300 of those paying average of

52 cents contract for them buyers of those puts are betting robinhood will decline below their strike pies to put it below $12.5 april expiration which will be two week from tomorrow today actually. >> how do you feel about robinhood, dan >> not a fan again, i don't know what the innovation is there. i will say that short squeeze we saw earlier in the week from 13 where mike said a few times, 13 went to 16.5 and now basically round trip that looked like a funky trade this week in the quarter end, really poor sentiment, looks like few people said let's rip this thing, the fact it came all the way down tells you real ianers are looking -- owners are looking for opportunities to get out. >> mike with more "options action" tomorrow at 5:30 erstn. up next, "final trade"

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(vo) verizon business unlimited is going ultra! get more. like manny. event planning with our best plan ever. (manny) yeah, that's what i do. (vo) with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities, you get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost. verizon is going ultra, so your business can get more. inversion is here. the yield curve is negative. a lot of people look at this as an indicator of recession, it doesn't mean a recession will

happen but there's never been a recession without an inversion of the yield curve this is something people are closely watching, we're seeing the inversion take place in the after-hours session, we'll see if it carries through to tomorrow time now for "final trade. let's go around the horn, pete najarian. >> going to go lac, mel. >> brian kelly >> well, you asked what my favorite rock was, my favorite metal is, let's call it gold like that one. >> ha ha bonawyn eison. >> given the uncertainty in the domestic stock market and globally looking long for volatility, looking at the vix. >> dan nathan. >> we got a lot of time here don't we. >> we do >> my favorite, i'm glad the guys surrounded the trade. >> you have no favorite met am. >> i want to be careful with apple. i thought it was going to 140. it's at 174. i think mega cap tech names

retest the march lows. if you bought apple as a trade it makes sense to take some profits because the head winds fundamentally don't look great right now. >> all right thank you for watching "fast money" we got a lot of tweetstonight about how negative we are, but you know, thank you for watching see you back here at at 5:00. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends i'm just trying to saver you some money so call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me at jim cramer. how does the market roll over so easily with the dow plunging 55