final trade, duke long, and i'm staying in cash for now. >> i think your mic was cut. what did you say >> i did -- >> just kidding. >> he thought i was serious. shannon. >> intuitive surgical. >> anybody but all right. have a good weekend, everybody "the exchange" is now. see you in "ot". thank you, scott hi, erverybody here's what's ahead. 431,000 jobs added in march. the unemployment rate falling to 3.6 %. is the economy on strong footing at the beginning of the fed hiking cycle we'll hear from one who says it's absurd to think the fed raising rates will cause a recession. he says forget the yield curve as an indicator. >> and stock picks to think about before earnings season kicks in three buys and a bail coming up today. this one a little bit of an energy twist and a couple other provok kif names.

first let's get to the market numbers of. >> they're fairly stable not volatileon a day when you could have had that given the jobs support and the numbers we did see. more on that throughout the course of the show however, if you take a look right now what's happening behind us, the s&p 500 overall is looking to be in a tight trading range. we were up about relatively 18 points at the low down 21 at the lows. you can see behind me, the dow down just about 74 points. also watch what's happening, of course, with certain key parts of the market overall. in terms of megacap technology apple in particular is going to be a big focus after an 11-day winning streak we are now down on a three-day losing streak for that particular stock check that out here. because it has been a big story. apple has been one of the trades people have been looking at as a place to buy the dip at. on the other side of things, a quick word we're going to have much more on that very historic vote to

unionize workers for amazon in new york city specifically at a large staten island warehouse facility amazon shares fractionally higher on the day, but keep an eye on that. in alabama votes are being contested, but they look like they could reject unionizing there. and then check out what's happening with the ten-year two-year spread overall. look at the last couple years. at the high, kelly, it was 160 basis point difference roughly 1.6 % between the yield on the ten-year treasury note and the two-year treasury note that's narrowed to be yes, negative six basis points. a lot of attention, even if you don't believe the two-year ten-year is the most indicative guy, fives, 30s, twos, tens, whatever you want to look at, they're all flattening that's a key for a lot of traders. >> we'll have more on that in a moment dom, thank you all right. the more data points we're

getting lately, the more we're starting to see the perils of running the economy too hot. let's start with the jobs report this morning payrolls we had another 431,000 jobs added in march. but the february number was revised up to 750,000. that is the single strongest month of job gains we've had other than 2020 since 1983 the strongest month of job gains in what is that, 40 years? it's extremely unusual this late in a recovery as well when the unemployment rate is already back to where we were before the pandemic so is this really sustainable? that's why it doesn't go on the good camp. it's kind of a bridge between good and bad it's really strong and with job demand this strong, it's no wonder that wages are surging. we saw this again in the average hourly earnings. up 5.6 % again last month from a year ago if it stays this high, there's no no way inflation can go back. ism's prices paid index surged

11 points to a reading of 87 that's firmly bad. all 18 industries paying higher prices higher prices this month than just last month. and the higher prices, are they starting to bite into demand we heard this from gary in the classic earnings call last week. the ism survey also showed new orders lead engage markets in the economy. slumping nearly eight points last month that takes the reading back to may of 2020 levels pce prices we know the story there as well. inflationary pressures building across the economy some say this is all evidence the fed is now risking tightening too much into a slowdown but is the slowdown their doing by running the economy too hot we'll ask our next guest about that joining me now is kathy, the chief u.s. economist at axford economics. and kathy, what do you think the picture is shaping up to be for the u.s. economy right now >> thank you, kelly. happy to be with you it's definitely a challenging

environment for the fed reserve as you outlined. you have -- it's a question of how high does inflation go and how high do interest rates need to go. at the same time, can they really tame inflation without really damaging the expansion in a material way and having a hard landing as opposed to a soft landing. that's the critical question and it's challenging i would say that in the camp that maybe they can pull this off, you do as you ran through the labor market is really hot while that's bad in one sense, wages are running 5.6. prepandemic was 3% at the same time, you get a lot of income gains from that. that could keep the consumer afloat here at least for the next six to even 12 months we're a little bit more worried about 2023, actually >> sure, and that's a growing chorus basically it seems like what's happening is a growing portion of the nominal demand boom that's happening in the economy is being taken up by inflation

as opposed to real demand. and if we keep going at these levels, could we see more and more of that nominal growth being fed through as higher prices instead of real demand? consumer sentiments is sending that message we're seeing concern from the industry side as well. >> yeah. it's definitely a concern that you have destruction of real demand, real aggregate demand and, again, most of the nominal gains are inflation. i think and with the consumer sentiment, it's interesting. yes, the university of michigan numbers have taken a dive. and they're concerning it's mostly related to the fact that inflation is rising at a very quick pace. at the same time, the consumer continues to spend we saw that with the consumer spending data yesterday. now, yes in real terms it was negative, but we are seeing that rotation away from goods to services, and we think that service growth will continue the next couple months the other point i would make is

the consumer, the conference boards consumer confidence report was notably more up beat y. and that's because three of the five questions they asked consumers about the labor market it depends what you ask the consumer that's how they tell you how they're feeling. >> sure. the most important take away here is sort of as the fed sifts through all of this, the markets reacted to the new orders number this morning as if it's dovish we've seen treasury yields falling, we see that concern playing out. and does it mean that if they're sitting around a table, fed officials should say you know what new orders is slumping we'd better back off and see how it plays out is that misinterpreting the data and what's going on here >> you know, i think it's a great point. but i don't think they have the luxury at this point to really wait and see inflation is running incredibly hot. it's going to be approaching 9% come this spring, we think, early spring and then they barely have

started raising interest rates and haven't even shrunk the balance sheet yet. i think you have to look for aggressive tightening and even throughout the year. they probably get to at least 2% they need to get to restrictive territory. they will take notice of the curve and the real economy, no doubt. but they really have to tamp down on inflation, and i don't think the supply chain problems as we start with the surveys is really -- they're just getting worse because of the war in ukraine. >> absolutely. the prices paid are up supplier deliveries are high kathy, thank you so much it's great to have you on today. we appreciate it >> kathy with oxford economics speaking of the yield curve, a quick programming note, cecilia rouse, we'll get her take on the jobs report at 3:00 p.m my next guest thinks the recession fears in the near-term are overblown.

he's not worried about the yield curve inverting. he says it borders on absurd that normalizing the easiest policy since the 1970s would cause a recession. he's overweight on u.s. equities, and underweight real estate joining me is managing partner and director of research at iron sides macro economics. do you have the concern we could see a 2023 recession event because they're so far behind the curve or does not even that wor bother you >> i'm not particularly concerned as much as chairman powell may admire paul volcker, there was a long drawn out political process to get anywhere near the will to do who volker did starting in 1979 and on but yeah, i just think we have to step back and realize what the setting was. now, i agree that the rate of change of policy tightening is a factor, and you can certainly

shock the markets and economic activity i've been arguing that policy was counterproductive at the current setting. house prices going up 1.5% per month, 20% per year is a much bigger problem than a four versus a 5% mortgage marketfor real millennials households. we had lots of mall investment, money flowing into speculative investments. all the cash on bank balance sheets is impairing profitability, and that itself could crowd out credit creation much more than so-called maturity transformation, the inversion of the curve is likely to do so and of course, inflation expectations are a problem in the near-term as well. larry summers described the longer term expectations which are lower -- a wasting asset, so it's important the fed gets going. i think we have to understand in the early stages of them normalizing policy, they're

taking away counterproductive overly accommodative policy. they're not coming anywhere close to tightening. >> absolutely. and what i like about your perspective is you have the macro, but you also translate to markets. why does that leave you bullish on u.s. equities when you see kind of the inflation picture that's out there why are you more bearish on real estate maybe you just say these gains aren't sustainable walk us through where you think investors should be positioned right now. >> sure. a lot of this does have to do with, and real estate is a bond surrogate. but a lot of this has to do with the yield curve and causization. i've been arguing far long time thatreal rates and nominal treasury curves have not been a good proxy for growth going all the way back to the conundrum back in 2004 and 2006. it's a long story, but if you look at what's happened so far this year, the real driver of the nominal curve inversion has been a deep, deep inversion of the break even curve

in other words, the market expects inflation to fall very sharply in 2023 and beyond that deepening of the inversion curve correlation doesn't prove cause, but if you run the regression against that versus the nominal curve, you see the driver is this expectation that we're close to peak inflation. if you think about it in that context, you say equities rallied after the fed took some steps toward regaining credibility after the march meeting, and yes, the curve flattened. rates went up. but credit spreads tightened this is the -- this is what you'd expect in an environment where the market is telling you inflation is probably going to peak and get better. now, identify quibble with where it's going to wind up in 2023. but that's a story for another day. in the meantime, it's good news for equities it's good news for the reflation nar sectors. and clearly bad news for the bond market.

although, it appears at this point that the mortgage market and mortgage extension is probably burned itself out and the treasury market will probably trade in a range -- i don't think it will reverse the moves like it did in the second quarter of last year, but it will probably get stuck in a range here >> quick final question on the way out. for those selling the transports today, because of the yield curve inversion or because of the ism new orders missed, what would you tell them? would you be a buyer >> i would i would say if you look at the market pmi survey compared to the manufacturing survey, the ism has more international global companies in it the differential is the -- weakness overseas. the domestic demand story is really strong. and you can see that in total hours worked aing the regat hours there's a lot of momentum there. >> that's a fun way to look at it i'm glad we asked. glad we had you on barry, really appreciate it.

still ahead, three buys and a bail with danielle shai. she has energy plays today can you guess her bail it's this stock down 15% she says it's not worth the price you pay for the product. we have the name and what she's buying instead where have all the ipos gone the ren nans ipoetf down more than 20% we're in the weaker quarter in -- how long should we expect the freeze to last here's a snapshot of the markets. dow down 92 points russell is mostly flat but just went flat as well. back in a moment

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one of the market trends we've been seeing this year is the one we're not seeing, the yo ipos they've come to a virtual stand pill leslie has more details. >> the ipo market has essentially fallen off a cliff this year. just 2 $.4 billion of listings have hit exchanges that's just 5 % of the volume we saw last year over this time period that according to deal logic

in fact, this has been the worst three month stretch for ipos in 24 quarters. since the beginning of 2016 when the prospect of rising interest rates ensnared the broader markets. it's not too dissimilar to higher rates whip sawing the profitless growth tech companies that have come to epitomize the growth market. the renaissance ipo etf is more than 20% lower this year geo political and pandemic uncertainty are also creating head winds for supplychains an inflation potentially creeping into the margins if they have them of companies of otherwise looking to debay that creates oh passty for how to trade new issues so companies who can wait to go public are choosing to do so. chobani delayed. reddit was planning on going public in march. that didn't happen since it's now april. digital bank with cham is punting the deal to the second half of the year

instacart and stripe considered ipo candidates for the year. they just had their valuations slashed by fidelity. the ipo market may remain practically at a standstill until some of the macro factors change >> i remember talking about those companies in december. it's going to be a huge moment, and it's been a quiet one instead. leslie, thank you. let's bring in dan to talk more about this. if you think the ipos have been tough, you should see what's going on with spacs. se c has a new set of rules to crack down on certain aspects of the deals. the deal trackers down 20 %. is the spac trend over or could we see a resurgence? let's bring in dan, the business editor at axios. overall, what does this mean for companies either hoping to do a traditional ipo, a spac, you name it? it feels like the door has slammed shut >> the door shaz slammed shut. a big part of that is on the buy side if you're a hedge fund or a

mutual fund that likes buying high growth tech stocks, why right now would you buy a new issue, whether it's via spac or ipo, when all those companies that leslie was talking about that went public last year are mostly trading at good discounts to where they went buy names you know that have a couple quarters of public earnings under their belt. >> yeah. if i'm a company that was counting on this exit process, what do i do now >> you wait. and for the private ones, not all of them, but for many of them, they raised an enormous amounts of venture capital and private equity within the past 12 months. so long as they weren't playing a little bit of a kind of venture or ponzi scheme where we're going to raise a bunch of money and hire folks and it doesn't matter because we can raise again, so long as they were mildly conservative with treasuries, they should have enough cash to get through it. >> is the weight the sec is putting on the spacs spelling the end of a go public, or is it

a tweak and this remains on the table? >> i think it's a greszive tweak. it will cut down on the number but doesn't end it entirely. the big change or the proposal relates to forward-looking guidance if you're a company going public via spac, you've been able to show or present data far in the future more than you could have you're a traditional ipo company. if you're a precommercial spaceship or flying cab company, that's helpful this will equalize it. i think we'll see some -- fewer of those kind of speck imprulative coming to market >> spac has been a skargt letter for those who participated in the process. a lot of them are frustrated they've been tarred with this reputation, being lumped together as a sub par quality name what would it take to rid that association of the spac process? i mean, a high profile success story? what do you think? >> i think one or a couple --

and what's been interesting to me is some of the bigger spacs we've seen over the past 8 to 12 months that we thought were the solid companies have struggled in the stock market. you think multiplan. these big companies that have gotten their butts kicked in the aftermarket. i think we need to see a couple big ones succeed, and i also think the digital world acquisition, the trump one, could be something that makes spac that scarlet letter even a little brighter as it's continuing to struggle in terms of getting the product to market >> do you think that the spac investors, not the big guys but the general retail shareholder base, do you think they're left with a bad taste in their mouth thinking this isn't a great deal for them >> i think that's probably what it is, and it hasn't been. it's one thing if you pick and choose like any trader, and you pick well, good for you. and there have been some successful spac stories out there. but if you're buying these as a bucket let alone a kwauz zi passive index, you've gotten hit

hard >>final comment on the overall ipo market a lot of these companies recruit, compensate especially in a really tight labor market around the promise of a big payday around that public listing. so what other options either liquidity options or talent retention options do they have >> so there's a couple things. if you're privately held company and you have cash and interested investors, you can always do a secondary sell on the private market it's not like saying you can sell all your stock on day one but you can help them take some shares off the table, help them pay the mortgage, by off the car. it's something we've seen companies do throughout the bull market it makes sense if you've got the cash to do it or maybe you have an investor that wants $10 million of stock you can do it and help out employees. >> the sizzle is gone, but they want the steak, i guess. dan, good to have you. thank you so much. >> thank you coming up,fewer cars on th

lot. higher prices. and the chip shortage all weighing on auto makers. ford and gm down sharply when can we expect the industry to return to normal? >> as we head to break, here's a look at the dow heat map evenly split visa, merck and walmart the teggest gainers. inl and walgreens weighing on the down back in a moment us! limited time, gn (mom) delightful. (vo) with no trade-in required. plus, 1,000 dollars to help you switch! (dad) nice savings! (vo) yeah it is! verizon is going ultra, so you can get more.

welcome back to "the exchange". near session lows as we kick off the first day of the first month of the second quarter. the dow is down 99 points. here are some of the movers we're watching the transports definitely i mentioned this earlier on.

the worst performers in the s&p. after closing out march in the green. chrbs. the chinese internet names making a comeback on reports that authorities are ready to give u.s. full access to the audits of some major companies the rates begin falling again and banks are one of the biggest underperformers this week. the kb e ekt on pace and the social stocks outperforming with stnaf snap lg the gains. let's get to tyler for a cnbc news update. the cdc is ending asylum restrictions aimed at preventing the stpread of covid

the cdc says the rules are no longer necessary critics say it's been used as an excuse for the u.s. to avoid international obligations to accept people fleeing persecution. in pennsylvania a police officer killed on duty yesterday was just a month from retirement lebanon city police lieutenant and three other officers were responding to a domestic violence call. two other officers were injured and remain hospitalized. a 34-year-old suspect named travis shod was also killed in an exchange of gunfire in michigan jurors are hearing closing remarks in the trial of four men accused of plotting to kidnap governor whitmer. a prosecutor says the men were filled with rage against the government and whitmer's covid restrictions the defense lawyer says there was no plot, and the defendants were under the influence of fbi agents and a key informant.

on the news, russian troops have left the chernobyl nuclear plant, but what state is it? is it dangerous? find out with shep smith tonight. >> i'll see you soon still ahead, with second quarter earnings just around the corner, my next guest says we're entering the hot zone for stocks danielle shay joins us with her three buys and one bail, next. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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welcome back it'sthe start of the second quarter. we're about to enter the hot zone for earnings. so we've got to get to our three buys and a bail with danielle. what are the buys and what is one name to stay away from danielle is v.p. of operations at simple trading. it's good to see you again your first pick is actually data dog. it's down about 14% this year. why does this one flash buy for you? >> you know, kelly, i like this one for a variety of reasons definitely the cyber security area, it can be incredibly volatile right? but that can also be a good thing when you're looking for trades, special shorter-term trades when you look at data dog, it

has done fantastic the past four quarters in a row. i mean, we've seen this ticker trade higher between 10 and 16% overnight on earnings. so when that occurs, generally what you're going to see is in about the 21-day tame fraim, 21 trading days prior to earnings, we're going to see a stock start to rally in anticipation of another positive report. i like to get in prior to the report, ride the rally higher. typically i get out before earnings because i'm trading the momentum into the report >> a lot of those are short-term plays. data dog becomes the first one for you? >> yes >> and it just to quickly follow up on that cloud name, i should say, it services and so forth, is there anything you kind of other than a strong earnings report that tells you or any levels that would tell you that it's a green light for the stock? >> so i do like the technical pattern on this chart.

on a daily chart we're sitting up above the 200 simple. that's really my key line in the sand when i want to be bullish on any stock, especially in this market environment so when you look at data dog, it's sitting up above the $125 price point. with this trade, i would like to get in right around current prices with a stop around 145, and i would be targeting 160 to 170 on the up side so even though this is a volatile segment of the market, i still think the risk reward is great, and about three weeks on the trade gives me plenty of time >> all right let's move along to energy plays. this one has been such a talker this year. one old school, one new school the newer name is end phase. the solar play the shares rup about 11 %this year why this name? >> so this one has a similar pattern as well today a dog. when you are looking at the way this company has reported over the past couple quarters, the last two quarters we traded higher by 18% and 23% overnight.

so what that shows is that this company has really been picking up steam yes, again, another volatile sector, but when i'm looking at short-term trades, i do want something that's going to move because if there's not going to be a positive anticipation of the report, you know, what's the point. right? so when i'm looking at this ticker, i love how it's sitting again up above the 200 simple on the daily chart. we've got earnings coming up soon we're sitting above the 20 $0 price point. i'm targeting about 220 on it. because this stock will normally move about 6% during this time timeframe. >> and that makes me wonder the setup going into this earnings season is so different from the last couple because the market was so deeply negative for the first couple months. how does that change the hot zone or anything you're watching in terms of sentiment and positioning? >> oh, it absolutely changes it. what i saw last quarter was that the amount of stocks that

rallied into earnings was significantly lower than what we've seen really for the past several years. so what you want to do is you want to be focusing on those companies that have actually been able to produce fantastic reports in this market environment. and those are pretty few and far between. so when i look at end phase in particular, and i look at the way that it traded last quarter, i mean, it was down on the lows even a week or two before earnings and it still rallied the week before going into the earnings report so if something can pick up steam like that, even in the market environment we're in, that's something that i want to focus on >> that's interesting. you're saying that earnings season was a warning for how the markets traded and that there were names then that were -- you're sticking with the winners there. it's not like you're saying these names were down big last time this time i think it's the opposite >> no. honestly, last season, last earnings quarter it was just

destructive in so many ways. and actually, what i started looking for last quarter and what i've been looking for this quarter are companies that did get destroyed on earnings, and i'm looking for those who continue to go further so on one hand, there are some shining stars where we can look for that bullish momentum. there's also a ton of stocks i think are going to fall further on more disappointment >> wow that's quite a warning before we get to your bail, though, let's talk about one more stock that also in the energy space, more of the old school play. you like exxon here. it's already up 35%. you think there's more room to run? >> so i do like exxon here and the reason for that is because when i'm looking for this setup going into earnings, i like to focus on the strong sectors of the market. when you have that wind at your back, that can really help carry the trades forward and so while exxon is already up, it has pulled back in the last two weeks or so and it's sitting above a key

area of support about the $80 price point. you have crude that obviously despite what president biden is trying to do, very strong with crude prices energy segment is strong and with exxon, i'm just looking at this as a smaller trade i'm not buying shares at this level. but i do like just getting into the trade at current prices and trading it up into about 85 to 88 with a stop below 80. so for me, that's a great risk/reward for something that's going to last about three weeks. >> fair enough i take your caveats about it may not be for everybody all right. finally let's get to the bail today. i'll just go ahead and reveal. it's up 5 % this week. so it's got traction but uber down 15 % this year. and 35 it continues to languish way below the ipo price. >> so kelly, i love looking for short candidates when they're up that's why i picked uber when you look at uber, the down

trend is -- has been in a down trend for quite a while. but the thing i love the most about it is the hot zone stat statistics when you look at the course of the last year on uber, uber falls on average about 10% during the hot zone. and so when i'm looking at that, i also see the fact that it did rally. that gives me a great entrypoint i just don't see any positive anticipation for this report they haven't done well on earnings they have so many head winds you have new legislation you have gas prices. you have the fact that they have increased their prices and their products have gone down in value, i personally think. but i just think there's way too many head winds for uber it's a great short going into earnings i just don't think anyone can possibly anticipate a positive report for them. so i think it's a great short-term trade >> all right there are the three buys and a bail into earnings season. we'll have a lot more to comb

through as that plays out. danielle, thank you for your time we appreciate it >> thank you up next, votes in the unionizing efforts at amazon warehouses in alabama and new york those votes are in we'll hear directly from amazon about the outcomes next. shares clinging onto a third of a percent gain we're back in a moment (vo) verizon unlimited is going ultra! and now, you can too with the offer you just can't miss. for a limited time, get a 5g phone on us! (mom) delightful. (vo) with no trade-in required. plus, 1,000 dollars to help you switch!

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votes in the amazon unionizing digss is in at the staten island facility, they chose union >> the statement reads, quote, we are disappointed with the outcome of the election because we believe having a direct relationship with the company is best for our employees we are evaluating our options including filing objections based on inappropriate and undue influence by the nlrb that we

and others witnessed in this election so far investors are shrugging this vote off, and perhaps because they know that this battle isn't over. that's what the statement is basically telling us amazon shares have continued to trade in a tight range staying in positive territory. it could change as investors sort through the potential implications for the logistics chain and current labor model which is the back bohn of that prime eco system the union drive was won by roughly ten percentage points. another vote last spring in alabama went overwhelmingly in amazon's favor with one win under organizers' belt, other warehouses could be encouraged look at starbucks, the string on union victories quickly followed the first one and moreover, shares since then have been pressured at moamazon the stake are larger this vote affects more than 8,300 workers at that warehouse. as we heard in the statement, there are things amazon can do like appeal the vote and

complicated and draw out negotiations to make the argument that unions don't work. this had been an extremely hard fought and sometimes dirty fight so far so there is almost certainly going to be more >> it feels like their coming of age moment every big tech company has had to contend with it, whether it's apple or various regulations and the social giants and alphabet this is going to be the way that amazon grows up, so to speak how many more of these votes should we expect and what's the kind of posture so far >> well, if you remember, kelly, a few years ago when bezos was on his way to step down from ceo, his annual letter had a bit of a change in tone. in it he said they wanted to be america's number one employer. maybe it was the world's number one employer so their priorities have shifted a little bit from being obsessed with the customer to look to different regulators like labor unions and the work force and regulators like lawmakers. this is certainly a different amazon that we are seeing. and this is the biggest labor threat that we have seen on u.s. soil so what andy does from here,

we'll see. as we heard from the statement, we think this is going to be sort of a hard-fought battle this is not determined by any means. there's another vote expected next month in brooklyn you're already kind of seeing the dominos fall >> absolutely. much like at starbucks thanks we appreciate it up next, oday's auto sales numbers show the chip shortage driving a divergence we'll explain that next. flexshares are carefully constructed. to go beyond ordinary etfs. and strengthen client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

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welcome back, everybody. checking on the chip stocks. lower today. the smh has fallen more than 13% over the past three movnths in part over concerns it may not last forever it has certainly been pressuring auto sales phil is here now with the latest numbers. phil >> kelly, you see the pressure in the q-1 numbers they came in as expected general motors down 20.1%. toyota down 14 .7% hyundai up 1.4%. generally speaking, a quarter where overall sales down 15% in the u.s. auto inventories remain low.

and why do they remain low because the supply of chips is just not replenished to the level that it was before the pandemic and as a result, you see a gradual improvement in chip supply, but we still see some intermittent stoppages in production good example, ford today they are -- yesterday they announced they're going to be suspending production next week at the flat rock michigan plant where they build the mustang general motors is going to be shutting down the indiana truck plants where they build their pickup trucks. going to be shut down the week of april 4th, the week of april 11th look at tesla. people are saying you got q-1 numbers. where's tesla? we will likely get those tomorrow or sunday the expectation is about 315,000 vehicles to be delivered we'll see if they move past that which some people are expecting. >> it would be notable because while they've had all to contend with chip shortages, the fact that any have succeeded at all shows the others didn't,

perhaps, approach this as strategically or respond as strategically as they might have hoped. >> yeah. yeah but let's be clear here. there's very few examples of an auto maker where an automaker did 100% better than everybody else musk said the shortage impacted the production others have been at times not doing as well and other times improved it is not smooth for any automakers around the world. >> we appreciate it. with the headwinds what is the outlook for autos? the issues abate normalizing? with us is michael ward an auto analyst at benchmark are we post-pandemic or not? feeling like this period of permanent change. >> thank you it's good to be on

we're not post-pandemic yet. i think you mentioned inventories are constrained. you start to see positive change in sales just on the daily rate basis looks like march will be up 10 or 12% from february the chip supply is not replenished and production can't keep up with the pace of sales there's optimism but still constrained. >> we see the traditional automakers unable to fill the demand and ev makers are struggling to fill orders. >> yes tesla is a fraction. so you have a bigger pie to split. general motors in texas has not missed a day of production and depends on where you allocate. it is concerning with truck

production >> yeah. what would you say -- we have watched shares of ford and gm struggle and the shortage will last and trouble for sometime. when can we expect that to change >> i think that the biggest thing i look at is four years and first time from a downturn where you didn't need to structure costs and product or revenue or the balance sheets so these companies aren credibly well positioned to benefit from any upcycle and looking at underlying demand. the population age and millennial group the signs are more bullish than the 40 years i follow the stock. >> someone else wants to get in on the conversation. >> yeah. i don't know what's triggering them might be auto stocks.

>> thank you we'll have you back soon. >> thank you >> michael ward. see you later, salaries. bye-bye, bonuses kate rooney with a talent exodus kate >> reporter: that's right. here in downtown manhattan where some of the biggest banks in the world beefing up the cryptocurrency teams we'll bring you inside the debate stay on wall street or full-time crypto to startup. more on that on "the exchange" after this breakss. for plus, 1,000 dollars to help you switch! (dad) nice savings! (vo) yeah it is! verizon is going ultra, so you can get more. with my hectic life, you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions, and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. voya helps me feel like i got it all under control. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected.

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( ♪♪ ) i call it the wheel. okay. this is a miss. edison, can i be honest with you? i-i-i-it stinks. (speaking japanese) like i was saying, it's ftx. it's a safe and easy way to get into crypto. ehhh, i don't think so. and i'm never wrong about this stuff. never.

(vo) verizon unlimited is going ultra! and now, you can too with the offer you just can't miss. for a limited time, get a 5g phone on us! (mom) delightful. (vo) with no trade-in required. plus, 1,000 dollars to help you switch! (dad) nice savings! (vo) yeah it is! verizon is going ultra, so you can get more. welcome back mainstream banks are coming around to crypto but the pivot isn't enough to keep them from having the employees leave kate rooney is outside the new york stock exchange with details on the crypto brain drain wall street is experiencing kate >> reporter: some of the big,

bracket names have been hiring and beefing up the cryptocurrency team so far we have seen that lately they argue that they have the scale, the impact. but the startups are also trying to compete for the talent and people that left wall street to go to the startups say they're looking for that fast moving pace, a slightly different culture and they say there's potentially more upside at a startup at this point. the banks have dedicated crypto teams from data shows the pace of crypto hiring quadrupled from 2015 to 2021 and jumped 40% roughly in the past year. i talked to an expert saying it means moving slower but the weight behind the project makes up for that.

>> i think sometimes the upside of being an institution of our scale and size and operating mechanic is way more important than the downsides might be by virtue of having to look at the regular lags or the control that exist. >> reporter: other folks i have talked to found the pace of innovation within a bank can be frustrated justin schmidt is head of strategy and said he learned a lot from being a cog in the machine at a bank and while walking away he said there's career risk in staying >> risk is a multidimensional thing. you take brand risk. goldman is a storied institution of wall street i think you also take a risk by staying at some place that's more traditional because i very

firmly believe this. this is a generational change and there's an opportunity from new assets created and how all these things interact. >> reporter: wall street banks are competing with startups and big tech competing for talent so competition from everywhere. >> it's shaking up the plans and investments. do you need an mba, ivy league education? >> reporter: we spoke to a former managing drerk at bl blackrock. she said some of smartest people they have hired are self taught, computer scientists and influencers from twitter unconventional hiring. you don't need an mba but a new

resume they look at. >> computer science phd doesn't hurt great stuff. thank you so much. that does it for "the exchange," everybody "power lunch" picks things up right now. thank you. see you in a couple seconds. welcome to "power lunch. here's what we got for you on a friday afternoon peak employment. jobless rate closing in on a 50-year low. wages continue to climb. is this as good as it gets for the job market and why doesn't this economy seem to get any respect? plus, the great rotation as the economy shifts our market pro will tell us we are on the cusp of a move back to growth and far better valuations. where he is finding opportunity. kelly? >> thank you quick check on markets stocks fightin