tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC April 4, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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proposing as starbucks with the buyback halted. and tesla's record news. we will tell you about this on monday, april 4th. this is "worldwide exchange. good morning, good afternoon, good evening. welcome from wherever in the world you are watching i'm brian sullivan before we get started. congratulations to the university of south carolina women's basketball team. gamecocks owned the game over the huskies. they won the second national championship we will get to that later on congratulations to everybody in columbia, south carolina. let's see in your monday money is winning they are slightly down it is early as well. you can see a mixed trade at
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this hour. the futures are swinging widely. so far, we're a big 1 for 1 in april. all major averages did rise on friday investors not spooked by the 2/10 year yield curve brief inversion. let's see where we are right now. we are not at that inversion 2-year at 2.45 the inversion, again, the yield with the 2/10 is higher than the interest rate. let's see if oil can stay below $100 it is 99 -- no, it is not. you say stuff 20 seconds ago and it changes $100.22. covid lockdowns impacting global demand that is the main driver over what is happening in chienna the big release of the emergency
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oil stockpiles it should get us close to 1 million barrels a day. a lot depends on refineries which are running above 90% and if they can buy added oil and if there is pipeline and rail capacity to take it. there is still lots of variables around oil goldman sachs's jeff currie is on this hour to talk about it. you will want to hear what he has to say mostly higher session in asia hong kong jumping 2% news of the chief executive carrie lam is not seeking re-election. we have julianna tatelbaum with the early trade and key headlines from the london newsroom julianna, what is going on >> brian, good morning despite the strong news from asia, europe markets are trading on the back foot much like the oil price moving
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in front of your eyes, i see the markets turning green. the majority of the markets were in the red moments ago ftse mib trading in the green. the cac 40 just crossing into positive territory positive momentum seems to be building muted with the move higher the direction of the change is nota notable. dax in the red the investors keeping their eyes fixed on ukraine with the european leaders calling for more sanctions against russia after ukraine accused russia of war crimes are from the sector, we have health care in front up 1.2%. the best performing basket food and beverage is up. we see under performance in cyclical stocks.
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clearly the picture is more positive overall, brian, stable start to the week >> very stable wall graphic there, julianna. green on top red on the bottom. all very symmetrical julianna, thank you. let's get to the top corporate stories. including more pay for those in in the corporate suite bertha has more. >> reporter: good morning, brian. mary daly says the case for the interest rate hike in may is strengthening. daly argues the latest data has shown the labor market to be tight to unsustainable level the comments come after the friday jobs are report showed the unemployment rate falling to a half century low u.s. chief executives are on
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pace to seek record earnings widening the gap with the staff to historic amount the ceo jumping in 2021. the meimm recipients of the lart packages include discovery's ceo at $247 million. really and andy jaffe at -- i'm sorry i have to put my glasses on. those numbers don't look right $213 million starbucks shares are under pressure it this morning a halt to the buyback program. the first act on the ceo return to the company
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writing he will invest more in the people and stores. brian, schultz saying he will be traveling around the country to connect with employees amid supply challenges and growing employee led push for unionizing including here in new york state. i'm sorry. i had trouble reading numbers. there must be a decimal in there. no >> no, these are big numbers with all due respect to the men and women who make it to those slots, a lot of it is luck and internal politics. you know, you last a year or two and still paid out the numbers are big. let's say that i'll leave for others to judge no missing comma or decimal. >> there has to be a decimal in
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there. >> you have to wonder. howard schultz the second time he has been ceo. we will see. bertha, see kyou in a few minutes. back to the markets. worries around the potential for a recession continuing to trickle up our next guest says itis a possibility. cites russia from inflation to super inflation. anneka treon is joining us now anneka, good to have you back on i worry about europe and increase in costs particularly in electricity generation. it will send millions deeper into poverty or into poverty we will see companies shut off production if natural gas flows trickle down they said that how worried are you about the
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global economy and american economy? >> that's a lot to be worried about. if you look at what markets had to digest is unfathomable. it left markets schizophrenic. we are facing inverted yield curve and the possibility of recession and given what is happening with the 2/10. we can get lost in technicals what is important is the following. we are entering a growth slowdown regime for sure it is inevitable it is almost $10 trillion that was pumped into the economy on the back of covid. how worried do we need to be if you look back, you know, when 2/10 started to invert in the past, you see recession could pay place 6 to 24 months after that this time it is different
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rhetoric let's zoom into what is happening right now. what is happening right now is yields are negative. real yields are negative to this point. normally they are positive as we enter a recession environment. we are almost 5 percentage points negative look at the power of the employment market. labor market the other thing is which is the most fascinating we are totally charged you see this environment start to take place around two years after the first rate hike. we are about two to three weeks afterwards. >> so what do we do? with all that in mind, anneka, is it put all our money in cash or gold and let it ride? if you are up early, because we go around the world, and you are agreeing, what's the move? >> well with, what's the move is
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a challenging question the reason it is a challenging question, hiding in cash is a very painful trade looking at the rates of inflation. we all have been humbled including the central bankers. trying to predict inflation because we're entering an inflationary discovery environment. the lesson we learned from the structure issues about supply chains, the russian war is the tip of the iceberg it is more structural. to that point cash is painful. the equities market. this is fascinating. thisschizophrenia. we are all talking about the 90% probability of recession taking place. equity markets are very strong yes, q1 was weak
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>> sorry for the music, anneka it is truly more and more people i talk to and people say the visibility is so low and if people tell you they know what is happening in stocks, they are making it up we have no idea what's going to happen in ukraine and russia and europe and recession it is a tough environment. anneka treon, thank you very much speak with you soon. we have a lot more to do when we come back, the unusual reason we could have a shortage of one key building material this summer. plus, the morning rbi with six big esg related stock picks. why that trade is continuing to hit the energy sector the most we have jeff currie is here.a ry ve busy hour is still ahead as we roll on after this
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welcome back let's get the latest from ukraine and horrors on the ground scenes of what appears to be massacre of civilians outside the city of kyiv this after the top prosecutor revealing 400 bodies, mostly civilians, were found in several towns recaptured from russian forces ukraine is accusing russia of
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war crimes against humanity. the biden administration officials discussed intensifying sanctions and targeting areas of the russian economy not hit so far. mining, transport and more areas in the banking and financial sector european leaders signal the same action and the germany defense minister should talk about banning natural gas from russia. stock prices are still above $30 u.s. dollars what we pay here is over $5. in some ways, natural gas there is about six times more expensive. aside from the horrific toll, the economic impact of the russia war in ukraine is growing. that is not just in europe starting to hit industries that you may not have thought about we didn't. one is cement. you may not know it, but the u.s. buys a lot of cement from
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the country of turkey. now because shipping and power costs areso high, much of the turkish cement is shutting down. it is not profitable to make or ship it. it may not sound like a big deal, but it is when you are dealing with a short supply of building materials and run away inflation. could american companies benefit? we have katharine thompson with us the global supply chain. the curtain has been pulled back dramatically in the last two years on the global supply chain. this is one of the stories that you brought to our attention i've never heard of this no clue that we needed turkish cement badly what is the current situation? american builders could be in trouble this summer.
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>> if you lay the ground work first, first, the u.s. can't produce enough cement to meet demands. you have to import that is where turkish cement comes in we are in the building boom. that's unprecedented in the past 20 years to have all three happening at the same time u.s. cement plants are having failures or extended outages because they are running that leaves us now with more dependent on imports what does this mean? in total, 3% to 5% of u.s. production 80% of the cement goes to the port of houston. one of the hottest areas of growth the texas region is 20% to 25%
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of the needs in that market. >> we have been talking about electricity prices here and in europe i know it is a boring topic. it matters because it goes into everything how much is the price of electricity, even here, by the way, effecting many markets? cement i have to imagine takes massive amounts of electricity power to make it. >> yes cement plant runs 24/7 with start up costs, ukraine is russian coal in the u.s., you have a combination of factors for the u.s. plants. a lot of it is natural gas and you have some coal you have a number of plants using alternative energy it is still not enough >> let's talk about filling in the gaps you mentioned the market was already tight. this is before the war began
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you and i have been talking for years about some of the companies in the united states what about a company from mexico we are realizing our partners in canada and mexico maybe more valuable than before >> particularly in the southwest and they have strong operations in texas where they produce cement and crushed rock and concrete they will be part of the solution a few other domestic players like martin marietta t cemex is an important partner and they will help meet the shortfall. >> truly incredible. the global supply chain, like i
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said, we pulled back the curtain, and we realize how fragile it may be. cement we are watching the names. thanks, kathryn thompson have a great day >> materials still ahead, good news for tesla stock fans elon musk with the stretched global supply chain and pulling off big nuermbs. we'll tell you about them next each day looks different than the last. but whatever work becomes, the servicenow platform will make it just, flow. whether it's finding new ways to help you serve your customers, orchestrating a safe return to the office... wait. an office? what's an office? ...or solving a workplace challenge that's yet to come. wherever the new world of work takes your business, the world works with servicenow.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frances rivera with the headlines this monday. police in sacramento are looking for suspects after a mass shooting left six people dead and a dozen wounded. a large fight broke out as bars were closing sunday in the downtown area. three of the dead are men and another three are women. similar shootings with several victims rocked other cities this weekend. chicago police say a man shot two people and fired at officers at an apartment complex. officers later shot and killed the gunman dallas police investigating a shooting at a concert that killed one person and left 11 others injured it happened after someone fired a gun in the air and another person fired a gun in the crowd. travel nightmare thousands traveled after airlines canceled 3,000 flights. thousands more delayed
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bad weather in florida caused the issues and southwest also blamed tech issues. the grammys were held last night. silk sonic and bruno mars won record and song the year for "leave the door open." and olivia rodrigo performed "driver's license" after receiving best are tist and pop vocal apparlbum and south carolina wins the championship 64-49 the school's second title and first since 2017 brian, for monday morning, those are the headlines. back to you. >> a lot going on. frances, thank you very much congrats to usc. the other usc. the real one on the east coast
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oil at $100 a barrel jeff curr aie is here with more and tesla charged up new delivery record despite elon musk calling a difficult quarter. it is monday, april 4th. this is "worldwide exchange" on cnbc welcome or welcome back. hope you are having a good start to the day happy 53rd wedding anniversary to my parents. mom and dad. if you are watching, love you guys all right. let's get to monday money. futures necessarily not in love. we are seeing stock futures mixed. 1 for 1 in april batting 1000
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also, watching to see what happens in oil oil prices controlling the stock market oil stay below $100. $98.98 right now covid lockdowns in china is the main driver of prices. shanghai is locked down. people can't get food and not allowed to leave apartment buildings. you have the release of the american oil release in mid-may. based on the numbers coming out, starting may 15th. that's when you see the new release that the president talked about last week this is when it will take effect you need to see if we have the pipeline capacity as well to take that. we have breaking news. jpmorgan chase jamie dimon releasing the shareholder
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letter i'm stalling so my friend leslie picker has more time to go through the letter leslie, what are we seeing as the headline you know what i'm doing. she's reading the letter you know, what are the headlines? >> reporter: i got you, brian. all 44 pages here in the annual letter to shareholders this morning. he describes what he sees as three important and conflicting forces one, strong u.s. economy two, high inflation and rising interest rates and reversal of qe three, the war in ukraine. as for the u.s. economy, he describes the consumer in excellent financial shape on average. consumer spending the last few months is 12% above pre-covid levels housing prices surged and asset prices high. some in bubble territory without detailing which assets he believed were frothy
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that leads to monetary policy. the stronger the recovery, the higher the rates that follow he believes this could be significantly higher than the markets expect and stronger the qe he adds this will cause lots of consternation. he believes the fed should have flexibility in raising rates rather than held to 25 basis points and raising on a regular schedule dimon shared a plan for what he called the russia challenge. this included increasing our military budget and troop deployment to the nato borders and direct billions of dollars in aid to ukraine and turn up the sanctions and the marshall plan, brian, we talked about for energy security here in the u.s. and europe this is something he is said to have been communicating to the biden administration two weeks ago. as for the firm, dimon said he
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is not worried about the direct exposure to russia he says jpmorgan chase could lose $1 billion over time. he doesn't describe what over time means and where the costs could stem a number we have not seen before, brian. >> speaking of numbers 44-page letter is that the most volumvolumius >> you should see my thank you notes. >> that's a big thing to throw in there >> the 44-page letter? >> no, the $1 billion loss potentially. >> yeah. yeah exactly. compared to the peers, it is smaller. we don't know where the loss would come from. counter party risk or exposure in the region.
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citibank or citigroup has $10 million in exposure in the region that as they are trying to exit the consumer bank. they have significant client exposure that takes a long time to wind down you know, as far as the other banks, we are seeing some numbers thrown out here and there. this was a new one for jpmorgan chase. >> let's talk about the macro take away, leslie. 44 pages good grief we will hear it all day here on cnbc it sounded like he was cautious. would you summarize and you don't have to speak for jamie. would you summarize it as worry? he is nervous about it his job is to be nervous he is on a macro level, he seemed pessimistic >> i would agree with that his comments echo what we have
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seen over last few weeks larry fink or howard marks and now jamie dimon. companies need to rethink the supply chains and alliance do you want exposure in the supply chain with the nation that doesn't agree with the v values of the american way first with the pandemic and now the geopolitical situation it gets complicated when you start doing business with countries that may not have the same ideals as we have here. we've been doing that for decades. it has been fine you start to hear the drum beat from leaders saying it is time to rethink that. for better or worse, that would be inflationary aspect decoupling of the supply chain >> we talked about it. we need new housing in america we could have a shortage of cement because of the supply
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issue with turkey. leslie picker, we appreciate it. have a great day now this morning's big money mover and shares of tesla following a record quarter for deliveries bertha coombs is here with that. this is good news. how does tesla pull this off >> reporter: brian, tesla delivered 310,000 vehicles and produced just more than 305,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2022 that compared with just about 184,000 deliveries the same time last year. the company says model 3 and model y vehicles comprised 95% or 295,000 of the first quarter deliveries which are close approximation to sales figures a analysts were expecting 278,000
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and 257,000 for the first three months of the year on twitter, elon musk, to your point, brian, says the nearly 76% delivery jump came despite the extremely difficult quarter with supply chain disruption and zero covid policy from china of the shares were up in the pre-market up a bit this hour just about flat on the year. the company reports its next quarterly results on april 20th. brian, update. tesla had hoped to resume production monday in shanghai at the factory. it has been closed since march 28th due to the citywide covid lockdowns and remained closed on monday >> what is happening still with covid in china and the lockdowns is remarkable. i don't mean that in a good way. tesla pulling it off
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bertha coombs, thank you very much on deck, why oil and gasoline prices are likely headed higher and why d.c. and wall street may be big reasons for it goldman sachs jeff currie on that next. you'll get closer to iconic landmarks, to local life and legendary treasures as you sail onboard our patented, award-winning viking longships. you'll enjoy many extras, including wi-fi, cultural enrichment from ship to shore and engaging excursions. viking - voted number one river cruise line by condé nast readers. learn more at viking.com. (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities
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interesting with stock ideas all these have one thing in common esg based. whatever you may think of esg as a whole, it is is booming money flows into the esg funds more than $70 billion. it is on the rise. the good folks at cowen released a report on esg with stocks they love in fact, there are more than 60 stocks we don't have a five-hour long show we can't hit all 60. we picked six we found most interesting to i got to pick them here is my picks es esg related stocks include calumet products refining company yes. they are transforming a refinery
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to renewable diesel. cummins. shifting to electric ehicles you need engines evgo the charging station company they are dealing directly with the auto manufacturers in building out charging station plans. itron. they benefit fro utilities. they help software more power around mp materials the mountain pass, mp, california mining company that we have been to twice. they make materials that go into batteries and they are breaking ground on a texas facility shortly. and purecycle tech they turn waste polypropelene into a better chemical there are 57 more names.
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reach out to them to find out. we thought with thesegment, we dark at the end of earnings quarters you can never have too many good stock ideas on deck, belindsey bell is here to talk about stocks en vo vogue. and april is financial literacy month here is stephanie link with what she learned about money. >> here is how i learned about money and how to invest. especially for the long term right out of college, my father suggested i take money out of my paycheck and put in the s&p into an etf and dollar cost average each month put it away, he said he said it could be $5 or $25.
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point of investing over the long term and not worry about the y-to-day i still use this process in my investment style whatever they . all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.
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welcome back good monday morning. let's get to the broader markets and money. yield on the 2-year treasury hitting the highest in two years today. this is pushing expectation that the fed is pushing through higher rate hikes. the yield curve, the spread with the 2/10 year note, it's six basis points the yield on the shorter goes above the longer notes many see that as a sign of a coming recession let's bring in lindsey bell. did you hear about the inverted yield curve? i heard it once or twice over
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the past week or so. it's predicted 15 of the last 12 recessions it is -- by the way, the real yield is not inverted. it is a powerful sign. how much are you banking on it is it 100% tell? >> you know, it is hard to say, brian. you know, people have been talking about this significantly because it does have a strong history of predicting recession. the question is, is this time different? those are famous last words. there are unique things happening in the yield curve at this point in time that have to be taken use consideration you look at both sides of the yield curve, right on the short end, you mentioned it maybe people are starting to overreact. a lot of investors think the fed is behind the curve in containing inflation you are seeing pressure on yield move to the upside here. you are seeing sellers on that
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side of the market on the other side, the 30-year yield, it is moving up swiftly, too. obviously not as swiftly as the shorte end2% on the 30-year30-year yield. not as fast as a move on the 2-year when you combine that with the jobs report that we got on friday growth doesn't seem to be significantly risk you have the fed which owns a significant portion of the side of the curve the natural buyer in international inveinvestors. real yields are super negative around the globe there is give and take on both sides. i have a hard time agreeing with this >> i don't know what is going to
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come lin lindsey, my car is dying i can smell oil. all of these problems. i look to get a car and prices are out of control go out to eat. out of control grocery store. out of control rent out of control. everything i just look out and see higher prices everywhere. i just wonder how long can the american consumer absorb this kind of inflation without it trickling down to companies' profits and sales and the stock market >> it is a really good question. the consumer has been resilient. hot inflation has been around for almost a year now if you think about it the consumer has been able to absorb higher prices brian, i'm frustrated with the higher prices that i'm seeing everywhere as well consumer spending has remained ele elevated elevated above the levels
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pre-pandemic consumer from the spending perspective feels pretty good. we look at the confidence numbers and they've gotten weak. especially with the michigan segment. historically when it it is negative, it is an indication of the recession. it has been declining since august that is something we have to watch. consumers have over $2 trillion in extra cushion in cash debt-to-income ratio is a significantly low level versus history. they have room to take credit out. what you don't want to see is use all that extra savings and excess cash on higher prices that's not the most productive use of cash. i think the consumer can remain strong corporations benefitted from this i think that there's only a certain window of time they have
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to rely on the consumer. >> you look at it of higher rates as well april 21st last year, lindsey, we unveiled our wall of inflation. that was april of last year. w we will do it again this year. it will be brutal, i know. it is also higher rates. revolving credit, credit card interest rates going up. if you have a mortgage that resets every year, that's going to go up massively can you look out six months and have any advice visibility on t consumer and the economy >> you know, i think it is really going to come down to what happens with inflation. that's really going to be the tell tale sign i hear you say credit interest rates are definitely going up. i have a credit card with a
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certain retailer at the mall they just informed me, i don't keep a balance, but the interest rate is going up significantly so this is going to be a worry for consumers down the road. i'm going to keep my eye on inflation because there are signs it is expected to peak here in the first quarter. i think in the months ahead, we might see some relief. you are starting to see transportation and shipping costs come down. i know they are elevated they are down significantly from the peaks and hope they continue that trend oil prices, hope we get a bit of re relief that is the wild card with the geopolitical tension we are starting to cycle easier comparisons and higher inflation. it does a good job of dampening demand fed raising rates. you are seeing a slowdown in the housing market because of the move in mortgage rates
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i think there is give and take it is a wait and see mode. brian. >> it is by the way, speaking of oil. i want to tell our viewers we were going to have jeff currie of goldman sachs on today. jeff, if you are listening, we will get you back on tomorrow to talk about oil and gas we are having technical issues i want to tell our viewers we're working on it. lindsey, you and i are getting a lot of time. >> i love it >> i feel like -- it's great by the way, 5:45 in morning. whatever time. why not? i feel like the angel doom higher this and higher that. let's be optimistic. we all talked about it or a lot of us talked about the roaring '20s that was before inflation roared in and obviously before putin decided to start his unwinnable war in ukraine if you have to be bullish about
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the consumer or stock market or both, lindsey, what would it be? >> you know i'm the half glagl glass full gal i'm optimistic inflation can come down in the latter half of the year that can give consumer the relief that consumer is in a healthy position versus entering the pan demo demo demic. they beabsorbed better money th last couple years. they are really putting that to good use you see that in the tax refunds. they are using that to pay down debt and partially using it to invest don't forget the corporate side of the equation.
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companies have more cash position after the crisis when they were building up balance sheets companies are in a healthy position as well they are able to handle rocky roads ahead if necessary they've also benefitted from higher prices. margin expansion has been nothing short of impressive over the last year and a half despite higher costs and supply chain snarls and things they had to contend with, too. i think we will see another year of margin expansion to record levels for the companies when valuation has come down. that has been the one gift of the market we experienced the first part of the year here. va valuations have come down. we are standing at 20 times on a board 12-month basis for the s&p. it is on the five-year average
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you can still have that premium even if interest rates are going up at the end of the day, brian, yields are still negative. >> they are. that's the key the number we show on the screen is not the real yield when you factor in inflation. the yield curve is mildly inverted on the real basis, it is not i know that is wonky at 5:56 you have to understand the real yields are not inverted. we have about ten seconds. give us one area of the market you like, lindsey? >> i'm looking at consumer discre discretionary. there are parts that have been significantly beaten up that i think are unwarranted. it has been left behind because of all of the things we talked about. interest rates going up and impacting credit and also higher
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inflation imp mpacting wallets >> i don't know if it is you i'm getting things in the mail that are we will loan you money for 20 years at 6.99%. you're welcome from the credit card companies rip. right in the garbage lindsey bell a great and long segment lindsey, thank you good stuff >> thank you lindsey bell just rolling with it. killing it love it. thank you. we will try to get jeff back on tomorrow tech doesn't always work the way you want it happens thank you for joining in thanks for watching "worldwide exchange." we will see you again tomorrow at 5:00 a.m. eteasrn time. "squawk box" is next
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get ready for next level entertainment. apple tv+ is now on xfinity. howdy y'all. with new apple original series and movies added every month... ...there's always something new to discover. and right now, you can get 3 months of apple tv+ free when you sign up. just say “try apple tv+” to get started. it's a movement. with xfinity, it's a way better way to watch.
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good morning tesla out with first quarter delivery numbers over the weekend. starbucks founder howard schulz is back details straight ahead. and amazon warehouse workers in staten island voting to unionize we will tell you what happens next it's monday, april 4th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live in the nasdaq market site at times square
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