tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC April 5, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. here is your top five at 5:00. maybe not so passive what elon musk is asking his twitter following after his 10% stake in the company. a big apple rebound. a new report shows how expensive things are getting. the commodity super cycle. jeff currie's report. and kicking the shareholder activist in third gear
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a "worldwide exchange" exc exclusive. later on, rising real estat risks out west the tug-of-war with building new homes and running out of water. it's tuesday, april 5th. this is "worldwide exchange. good morning, good afternoon, good evening welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan thanks for joining us. before we get to the news and big congratulations to the ncaa men's basketball champions kansas jayhawks coming back from the halftime deficit at the half, kansas was down 15 points they were able to come back and pull off a win this is their fourth ncaa title.
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congrats to the jayhawks fans in new orleans. if you are watching, it means you are still up not that you got up. that you are still awake let's kick it off with the markets and your money when i say mildly higher, a couple of points this coming off a huge gain for the nasdaq and tech stocks on monday particularly chinese tech stocks boomed top three of the nasdaq 100 were chinese based. the 2/10 year yield curve is still inverted investors are watching longer bonds with the 30-year yield that is still above that of the 2-year yield the 2/30 is not inverted if you are worried about the so-called inversion of bond
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yields, you want to hear the rbi. it may give you comfort around the stock market and all of the talk of inverted yield curves. oil is not comforting. back on the rise crude oil back $104 right now after the lockdowns in china there is more talk of direct sanctions from europe. in the crypto market, bitcoin and ethereum on the rise you see all major coins are higher let's get the headlines and market action overseas with julianna tatelbaum in the london newsroom julianna, good morning >> brian, good to see you. european equities are extending the gains. the stoxx 600 is up .30%
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brian, you mentioned talk of targeting russian oil and gas specifically that is a hot topic. european leaders meeting today there is talk about european leaders trying to could aalese d the topic. we just learned that the european commission president will travel to kyiv to meet with the president of ukraine from a market perspective, by region, this is the picture for europe the majority of the major indexes are trading higher this morning. we have a little bit of the red. ftse 100 and cac 40. we got fresh pmi data through this morning services and composite figures for march. what was interesting, brian, they were better than the flashes estimate business activity was strong for
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march. prices are soaring the expectations coming from the surveys is more down beat. this is the picture. chemicals and basic resources under performing brian, back to you >> that is the picture that is the news julianna tatelbaum, thank you very much. let's stay with the news and get the top corporate stories. including more on the stock news that rocked the markets yesterday. elon musk revealing a huge stake in twitter bertha coombs is here with mor on that. bertha, shocked everybody. >> reporter: that was a wild one yesterday, brian twitter up 25% in the pre-market good morning it has been less than 24 hours since elon musk disclosed his 9.4% in twitter. the tesla ceo tweeted 8:00 to his more than 8 o0 million
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followers. hey, do you want an edit button? a majority saying yes. musk is crossing the line between passive shareholder and activist investor. if he wanted to enact a change in twitter which he hinted with scams and free speech on the platform, he would need to alert the s.e.c. and file new paper work to be in compliance twitter, by the way, is coming off its second best day ever since going public manhattan residential real estate is up 3% this morning sales topped $7 billion in the first quarter. the strongest start to the year. that is according to data from miller samuel. sales were up 46% in the first
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quarter with volume surges 60% of60%. the average price of the apartment in manhattan is north of $2 million. and amazon is banning words like union, restroom, pay raise and plantation in a statement to cnbc, they say there are no calls for the words to be screened the words screened are offensive or harassing that is if the program launches at all brian, amazon shares this morning are flat over to you. >> going back to the elon musk thing. he put out the poll of what he wants to twitter and misspelled
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yes. that is him. he was tweeting in bars in berlin that is his misspelling. not us he tweeted it out at 8:00 p.m. here that would have been 3:00 a.m. in berlin. me thinks based on the other tweets that night about the universe and peace, maybe musk was in berlin and it was 3:00 a.m. -- i don't know, he had some beer? >> you think it is a 420 kind of thing? >> all i know he was in berlin two days earlier tweeting about berlin we will see if the s.e.c. takes notice of the tweet. a passive stake. that's the point bertha coombs, thank you very much see you in a few minutes we are just getting going on this monday. when we come back, calster stepping up its fight with
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corporate boards over esg pledges. a "worldwide exchange" exc exclusive. the portfolio manager in charge of that push and more on elon musk's passive twitter stake. why the tweet could be raising red flags for the s.e.c. and later, jeff currie is here and will talk about why oil may be going higher. a lot higher stick around when hurting feet make you want to stop, it's dr. scholl's time.
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welcome back good tuesday morning many investors like to buy stocks and stay passive. not challenging anything a company does not calsters the largest pension fund with $318 billion under management. the california based company will be more vocal and active when it comes to the companies it invests in. especially around the issues of esg. environment, social and gove governance the portfolio manager leading that charge spoke about the plan and whether this means actually selling stocks of companies that don't meet their goals >> we're not divesting these companies. we like to have a seat at the table and what we're doing is escalating our votes against directors at those companies that aren't disclosing important
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information for us as investors. first, it is around companies that don't have any diversity on their boards and it is at companies where they are not disclosing what we consider the minimal types of metrics that we need when it comes to climate risk c calstrs made a pledge to net zero we need companies to disclose important metrics. >> i was going to say, x, y, z fake company you will own shares. if they are not giving you disclosures or they don't have 30% of the board as female or if they are failing in other esg metrics, is it launching a proxy attack too strong of a term? >> that may be a bit strong.
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i think what we're doing is we're escalating our proxy votes. we have one of the most powerful co tools which is to support or reject those directors that represent our interests inside the board room we are voting against entire boards that don't meet our diversity minimums we are voting against entire boards that are not disclosing the basic information we need when it comes to climate risk disc disclosure. >> you are doing good work as the big of the institutional fund in the world. the issue is the return on the capital of teachers and pensions you serve. are there metrics that show that companies that follow these esg or other diversity initiatives that they actually do or out
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perform or not damage their performance? >> absolutely. there are countless academic studies that show that companies with diverse boards perform better and they make better decisions and they manage risk better so, diversity, i'm so glad this argument about whether diversity adds value we got past that argument and now it is really about how do you onboard new members and how do we do it more quickly we are making progress, but the world economic forum 2020 gender gap report came out. it said it will take 257 years to reach global gender parity at the rate we're going right now we don't have that time to wait. we need our companies to move much faster, which is why we made this aggressive decision to
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start voting against those directors that can't meet that minimum. >> i don't have 257 years. maybe 256. i can't let you go without asking about the macro environment. we talked to your cio a number of times the last time we spoke to you, everything's changed interest rates have gone up 30% to 50% inflation is hotter. the market was wobbly. war in europe. how do you see the environment right now? >> i'm going to take a quote from our cio since you mentioned him. at calstrs is a marathon not a sprint we are not looking at things on a quarter by quarter basis it is why things like diversity and climate risk are so important to our portfolio we don't want to simply sell out
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of a company because it is not performing this quarter. we are in this for the long haul we need companies to appr appropriately manage the risks which we think are long-term risk that is how we will pay the benefits for the teachers of california >> thank you for joining us from sacramento, california >> that was our thanks to calstrs on that issue and what they are trying to do to shake up companies. on deck, speaking of esg and climate change, diana olick is coming up with her series of rising risks for this part, she is taking a closer look at housing and water utestages facing parts of the sohwt. stick around you were a major transit system with billions of passengers taking millions of trips every year? you aren't about to let any cyberattacks slow you down. so you partner with ibm
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doing nothing... that's bad, they shouldn't do that. they're getting crushed by inflation. well, i feel for them. they're taking financial advice from memes. [baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ good to have you back, old friend. yeah, eyes on the road, benny. welcome to a new chapter in investing. [ding] e*trade now from morgan stanley. welcome back california just had the driest start to the year in history with the western drought in its third year those conditions are threatening every aspect of the economy. including real estate. it is now facing a tug-of-war with the housing shortage and water shortage diana olick explains in her continued series on the rising risks of climate change. >> reporter: on a swath of land in buckeye, arizona, the howard
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h hughes corporation is making douglas ranch. >> there is a shortage of homes. >> reporter: howard hughes claims it is not a problem >> drip irrigation and recla reclamation. >> reporter: 100,000 homes expected to build them and it is just one of more than two dozen developments in the works around phoenix as the west is in the middle of the 1,000-year drought >> expecting the growth in the area to be 1 million people and there isn't the water to sustain that growth. not with ground water. >> reporter: the senior water research produced a documentary about the ground water management act it has to prove there is 100
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years of water in the ground on which they are building. this area sits on the aquifer. the primary source of water. >> the problem with climate change, there are not back-up water sources to accept a development. if it loses all of the water supply, there is no water to back that up >> reporter: this area is at crossroads of construction and climate. the u.s. is facing a housing sh shortage it is estimated we need 1 million more homes to meet the demand >> i don't think the answer is to tell people that are looking for affordingable home is look somewhere else the answer is to build affordable homes >> reporter: mark is the director of the real estate development program at the school of business
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>> should wall street be concerned of housing and investing in arizona >> no. >> why not >> there is the understanding of the particular risk and there is sufficient evidence and facts that support the continued growth based on what we know today. >> reporter: but he concedes plans exacerbate that. >> there is a legitimate concern about our future and policymakers are aware >> reporter: last spring's report warpned the amendount of ground water is less than the estimate without a change in direction, the physical groundwater supply underneath buckeye will decrease and not be sustainable >> the bottom line is there are places in this state and valley where there are sufficient water supplies to support new growth we don't need to go way out in
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the desert and pump groundwater to build up the homes. >> the land is cheaper out here. >> at some point there is a cost to that. >> reporter: that report also says that the 100-year model for groundwater is changing. especially given the changing climate. the state department of water resources is in the process of determining if the basin does have 100 years worth of water. brian. >> so much to talk about, diana. your point about cheaper was right. a place called victorville my dad and i used to ride dirt bikes out there. it is now a suburb of los angeles although it is 75 miles out. i get it there are places that have enough water is there a way to replenish the ground groundwater from reservoirs or
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move stuff i'm thinking of the movie "chinatown" in my head >> tra >> reporter: sometimes they will buy water from farmers with the restrictions on the reservoirs the ability to move that water and replenish the areas is less and less possible. >> diana olick on an important topic and continued series on rising risk of climate change. thank you very much. i appreciate it. coming up, goldman sachs' jeff currie is here on what happens if europe stops buying russian oil. and oil is up and stocks are flat we're back after this. (vo) verizon unlimited is going ultra! and now, you can too with the offer you just can't miss. for a limited time, get a 5g phone on us!
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blue bird. elon musk polling people on changes of the platform. it is tuesday, april 5th this is "worldwide exchange. welcome or welcome back. good tuesday morning i'm brian sullivan thanks for joining us. here is how your money and markets look as we are halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour stock futures are not giving us help a lot of days the market is up big or down big. this is not one of those days. this is just a day it is tuesday. arguably the worst day of the week if anybody wants to challenge me on that, let me know let's move on. dow futures down 15 points anything can happen at this point. we are watching, by the way, bond yields. you might have heard that inverted yield curve it is still inverted 30-year yield above the 2-year
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yield. longer dated yields below shorter dated yields here's the thing in the rbi in a few minutes, we will give you a little bit of comfort of the inverted yield curve and stock market that is coming up. stick around oil is just over $100 a barrel. the average price for the gallon of gas is $4.19. get ready. prices could be headed higher. joining us now is jeff currie. head of the research at goldman sachs. just out with the new note on the commodity super cycle and issues facing the market jeff, great to have you back on. before we get into your note, europe is debating today potentially to directly sanctioning or stopping buying russian oil. if that were to occur, i could see two scenarios. one, russian oil keeps flowing and inventory builds up and
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prices go down or markets get tighter and prices go higher what do you think? >> it pushes prices higher because europe would have to source barrels somewhere else in the world. the immediate reaction to reshuffle oil around the world would be bullish it won't change anything in terms of the longer term amply indications. i think doing that, gas is not so much critical with germany, it will wblock this bottom line, germany doesn't work out the low-cost gas through the pipeline from russia they will push back. it will be short of catastrophic in terms of economic growth to shut the pipelines it is mutually assured destruction to stop the gas flows. i like to point out the only
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time they ever stopped was 1941. >> you know, it is amazing you have companies there everybody hates the atrocities in ukraine we understand that it is also gotten really cold in ur europe this week people cannot afford to heat their homes. do you think it is possible that europe would cut it off? i don't know where they make up 10% or 20% of the power needs. >> france is talking about it. germany is pushing back. we will see how far these discussions get. i think it goes to the point it puts an undue pressure on people for heating homes and industry to keep operating you are unable to replace that gas. oil can be shuffled around on ships. gas is more difficult to shuffle because it goes through pipelines or lng tankers which
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needs special ports to load and offload. gas is the more difficult one. oil is a little difficult to boycott on oil consumption in europe of russian oil. gas, on the other hand, cannot be dealt with. >> yeah, that's the case let's talk about this. tomorrow, jeff, a number of oil ceos up in front of capitol hill and yelled at by congress about higher gas prices. whether it is or not, who knows? i know they will say, we lost money for years. now we're making money there's a structure deficit. how much of what's going on in oil and gas markets, jeff, is caused by years of under investment some self inchflicted wed wound.
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some with regulatory policies which make it harder we talked about esg earlier in the program. hard to get money to build new projects >> you are spot-on the term we give it is the revenge of the old economy this problem is from '08 and '09. choking off investment going back a decade to grow the under p p lining supply base let's not forget banks are old economy as well. they don't have the capacity to expand the capital required to grow the supply base think about this a year ago oil was $50 a barrel. today it is $108 that is twice the amount of working capital this industry needs today than a year ago. that makes it difficult for everything to operate.
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as a result, inventory is drawn down and that puts pressure on prices liquidation of our markets rent wti. the interest is collapsing because there is not enough capital in the system to support it you take what you are talking about on esg you create a really tight supply situation and i want to point out demand destruction is not a long term solution the only long-term solution is getting cap anital into the markets. >> yeah, you know, jeff, a report out by your company, on the stock side ev adoption and hybrid adoption by 2040. my colleague wrote a story yesterday. it talked about 50% of the market in the u.s. will be evs or plug-in hybrid by 2040. i thought the story from goldman was bullish oil. 50% of the market is partly
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plug-in hybrid you are still using fuel and it meant that the other 50% of the fleet in the united states will be a traditional internal combustion engine. china and india, they want what we had 30 years ago. the longer term issue for oil seems strong, no >> absolutely. here's the problem policies ya sysmmetricalsymmetrl you pointed that out it is not focusing on how you wind down the supply of the hydrocarbons they are doing a reduction which reduces the supply and longer-term demand outlook in 2040 it creates the imbalances we see today. it will take years to dig out. it is an old economy problem
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not an oil and gas problem you think about how you solve any type of physical cons constraints? you have to grow the underlying supply base. the only way you get the capital in the market is higher prices the markets are screaming give me capital they will go higher and higher and higher until capital flows >> you do the math on the spr. it was confusing it looked like 160 million barrels over 180 days. they had 20 million previous, i think. the new one starts may 15th. 1 million barrels a day. is that enough to change the dynamics of oil pricing? >> we have to see who takes this oil. remember, the program they announced last november, 1/3 of the barrels were taken again, parts of the world that
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need this oil are not in the united states. they heare in places like europ. you need to release that oil within the north american market then you have to get it where the shortages are. think of the shortages gas, refined products. you have to get to the refineries which don't have access to the oil. your math is right 1 million barrels a day. we lost somewhere around 1.4 million barrels of russian oil you have the problem with the kazakhstan throw 1 million barrels a day on top of that. demand growth out of lockdowns and you will see china come out of the current covid problem and demand will go higher. supply is not there. you need more than 1 million barrels per day to fill that gap. >> it is hard for viewers to believe, but a lot of russian oil on the high seas a lot of that is destined for
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the united states. the last ship is supposed to hit port april 15th. jeff, i don't know if you heard, i ran into your roommate from pepp pepperdine he told me to call you jeffe. what a random run-in freshman roommate. i wanted to pass that along. random, but interesting message. >> all right >> he said you wouldn't be upset. he said no he said he hadn't heard it in a while. do that. it's all good. thanks for coming on, jeff a random run-in. on a serious note, the latest from ukraine. the country's president set to address the united nations security council for the first time later this morning. panel said to meet to success what appears to be widespread and deliberate killings of civilians of russian forces.
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volodymyr zelenskyy warning that atrocities near the settlement near kyiv could be worse than what was seen in bucha and a warning of the false flag attempt over the russian atrocities and the treasury stops russian payments from u.s. banks that eats into the holdings of the u.s. dollars and brings russia closer to the default on its global debt. more sanctions on russia by the biden administration could come this week. national security adviser jake sullivan says it will target elements of the russian economy fueling the war. coming up, elon musk taking on twitter will the s.e.c. have something to say about that? that's ahead right now, a quick hit of the other headlines happening now.
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a former employee downloaded customer data from the cash app from the company formerly known as square. now block took information, including broker numbers s.e.c. chair gary gensler saying the agency is planning greater insight over the cryptocurrency market. he added the s.e.c. will partner with the trading commission. and exxon expects the profit to top $9 billion in the first quarter. it adds thinner margins on chemicals as hits from russia will offset some of the profit "worldwi ehae"s ckn momentng iba i
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welcome back it has been 23 hours since elon musk disclosed his 9% stake in twitter. he is making waves tesla ceo tweeting after 8:00 p.m. last night or 2:00 a.m. if he is in germany as he was the day earlier. do you want an edit button he misspelled yes, which explains the 2:00 a.m. thing if he was in germany. musk got more than 2 million responses. majority of people saying yes.
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with that tweet, musk has already, crossed the line with passive shareholder and involved in investor keep in mind, if musk wanted to enact change if twitn twitter, needs to disclose that with the s.e.c. we have arjun with more from london nobody can make sense why there is not an edit button. will musk be in trouble with the tweet on the platform? >> the regulators will watch this closely, brian. the reason is musk owns 9.2% of the company. he is a passive shareholder, the securities and exchange commission in the u.s. requires anyone with more than 5% of the company through common shares to disclose that within ten days. elon musk has left it longer than that period of ten days to disclose that. the s.e.c. will watch this
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closely and could take action on that which would result, historically, in a fine. these fines have tended to be small. we'll have to wait and see elon musk, has, of course, had history with the s.e.c. back in 2018 regulators charged musk with making misleading statements about taking tesla private there is a wrangling over the tweets are legal no action taken yet. >> by the way, it must be, crazy like a fox, maybe the best way is to misspell a word on purpose to make your case. i don't think that escaped anybody's notice, arjun. listen, elon musk is a huge twitter user he has 80 million followers. i know the majority of the
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country or world doesn't use twitter. for us that do, particularly in the media, it is a resource in so many ways still a small platform any indication of what musk sees interest in? wildly speculate, my friend, if you like it's early >> reporter: he has been active, brian, in coming up with suggestions for the platform the edit button is one the current twitter ceo actually retweeted that he said the consequences of the poll are important tongue-in-cheek. elon musk has had criticism over the platform in the past two years. he's questioned twitter commitment to free speech.
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he is worried about the twitter algorithm. he suggested that should be open source in the interest of transparency musk spoken about building his own social media platform. these are things we may see from musk how much sway will he have with the management as people watch this story unfold. >> taking a stake is a huge endorsement. your comment is taken, arjun a lot of people decide what is newsworthy over time maybe musk will change that. arjun, i appreciate it thank you very much. on deck, are you worried about recession and recent moves of the bond market if you are, your morning rbi will give you a little come farther. that comfort. that's ahead and what does dan ives think
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welcome back time for the rbi the most random, but interesting thing you will hear all day. we will try to do something that honestly may be impossible make talking about obscure moves in the bond market interesting especially at 5:50 in the morning. the best way to do that is take a trip back in the time machine. goldman sachs crunched the numbers. yield on the two-year is above the yield on the ten-year. it happened in the 1960s and ag stocks have done well. in one and two years most inversions the s&p was higher.
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higher six of the nine times in other words, 67% of the time after the two-year yield above the ten-year and you made money in the stock market buying the s&p. you made pretty good money goldman sachs notes the return from the six times was a gain of 16% over two years higher than the 9% gain on the first year on average. okay a lot there. es at especially at this hour. stocks can go up when yield curve ininverts. it is because the result is a few years after the inversion. you hear on every commercial on the network. performance is no guarantee of future results the market up six of nine times and the s&p posted steep losses in 1965, '73 and 2000 and this year, it looks a lot like 1973
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economically if we hit a recession, which seems likely, stocks can and have made you a lot of money even after that yield curve inverts. history is random but interesting. joining us now is dan, the chair and cio of capital management. dan, welcome back. i'm not saying stocks are going up nine times in history, goldman sachs markets have gone up two years six of the nine times after the inversion. what do you make of it is that just historical garbage or is there something there? >> that's a great set up for how you should invest now. some of the things we forget about because we have been through this long period of financial representation
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valuations really matter you have to pay attention to the price earnings or share you are paying for a stock it is not just good enough for a five-year historical average of the you have to look at the absolute basis the pe on the 500 is 20. you look at the equal weight s&p, you are paying under 18 it means look behind the biggest cap names driving the index. they are driving the valuations right now. we had the surge in technology and resurgence in the technology stocks yesterday a halo effect off the twitter news in general, i think you want to look beyond the companies and find companies with great balance sheets generating a lot of free cash flow that have high financial returns. return on invested capital and equity >> it is also a measure of the
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fact the market and economy as we said a billion times and i'll say it again they are different things. they are related, but different. dan, we love having you on you do the deep dive into companies. you offer stock picks. small and midcap tell us about ftv and why this is the name you love >> so ftv was spun from our favorite company daniger corporation. you get the same ethos and culture made daniher so successful over men decades. ftv is an industrial company with the leverage which is modest within the company. brian, this is a company as well as others that can make cash acqui
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acquisitions these companies can take advantage of whatever environment they are presented with >> i know you love danaher i assume it is still on the list another company that we talk about on cnbc pro, is zebra technologies we talk about the big tech zebra is not a name we talk about ever, if at all. who is this company and why do you like them? >> it is remarkable more people don't know about zebra it is upgraded at jpmorgan chase yesterday with over $500 price target that stock is attractive at these levels zebra is the number one company in the bar code printing and data capture space they made several acquisitions in robotics and software area. you cannot run a warehouse
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facility or any logistics facility without zebra technology powering it particularly now with supply chains get back to normal. equipment and services will be more important as we go on >> i love it ftv, danaher and zebra new names. giving us comfort about the yield curve which we may have talked about dan veru, i appreciate it. have a great day see you soon thank you very much. folks, i appreciate you getting up early with us or listening to the podcast if you are somewhere in the world or like to sleep in as we do once and a while. it doesn't happen much see you tomorrow here on "worldwide exchange. "squawk" and the gang are next have a spectacular day take care. and interactiv ts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most. plus, zero-dollar commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. [ding] get e*trade
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good morning stock futures little changed off a little bit after yesterday's surge in tech. tech stocks lifted the nasdaq nearly 2%. shanghai lockdowns have been extended after the mass testing yesterday resulted in a flurry of new asymptomatic cases. and elon musk testing the limits of the so-called passive stake in twitter asking followers if twitter should add an edit button. it's april 5th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to
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