demand you want the stranger balance sheets and alaska is definitely one of those. >> you like delta and expedia, you're playing that game final pick bhp group limited, again, a commodity related play. courtney garcia, thank you that does it for us in "overtime", "fast money" begins now. live from the nasdaq new york marketsite in time square, this is fastball "fast money" i'm melissa lee. tim seymour, karen finerman. steve grasso -- ahead on fast another wild day on wall street. red ruled the tape and major averages fell we dive into safe harbor during the storm and where it could go from here. straight ahead plus, is consumer urge to splurge slowing down, we're seeing big stocks drop this week, what the charts are telling us later, betting on the ev boom, a boom that will need lots and

lots of lithium. we'll talk to the ceo of lithium america about the challenges ahead as we slide into the electric movement. we start with the sell off on wall street nasdaq dropping to its lowest close in two weeks. check out the losses in big names on wall street, microsoft, apple, tesla, alphabet, meta, losing $316 billion in market cap today alone. the move comes as the fed lays out its plan to drawdown its balance sheet. let's get more on the headlines of the central bank with steve liesman who is on set with us, first reporter guest on set for "fast money." >> right guy for the right time. >> there's no party hats. >> or dancing bears. you know anyway, the federal reserve and minutes to its march meeting said its members generally agreed to plan to reduce $9 trillion balance sheet that was somewhat more aggressive than

markets anticipated. here's the plan, $95 billion total caps per month is the most they will let run off including $65 billion cap on treasury. $35 billion cap on mortgage with levels reached in three months mortgage-backed security sales are possible after the run off is well underway the plan has to be formally adopt in the may meeting fed was stopped raising 50 points due to ukraine fall out, but this from the minutes one or more 50 basis point increase in target range could be appropriate in future meetings particularly if inflation pressure remain elevated or intensified, put it together 50 basis point hikes and $90 billion in asset sales one of the most aggressive tightening cycles since 1994 here's the question will it be enough to coral

inflation? and how much economic growth, employment and stock market will suffer as a result. >> what did you make of the billing dudley opinion on bloomberg? >> a little overstated but essentially right. >> yeah. >> i mean the fed needs to tighten financial conditions and can get it from the bond market, from the stock market and get it from a decline in consumer demand those are three ways to tighten financial conditions and the market, given where we've been and where we are now has held up relatively well. i know the s&p under states the disaster in a bunch of individual games but in aggregate not too bad. >> it seem that's helped to feed into the market losses >> add the bill dudley op ed and for folks what it was, the fed targets financial conditions often through the stock market we don't have in our country necessarily a lot of variablity on interest rates and people are tied in the place with

sensitivity in consumer demand tend to be in the fed target on stocks and the fed needs to do damage here. this is pretty extraordinary but not when you consider some of the worse types of financial conditions an the consumer has been most distressed they targeted basically 10 and 10 after the financial crisis they were saying let's get to below 10% unemployment and get to 10,000 on the dow we're in a very different place here but it's not surprising another thing to add about the minutes, the balance sheet is the only thing different, what's different is in the last couple days since that meeting the number of ways different fed governors have tried to use the word expedite in sentences and this 50 is a foregone conclusion for may and probably june. >> do you think there's been a noted change in fed speak to more hawkish tilt or is that the markets not paying attention to nuances of fed speak prior and

only now alert how hawkish fed has been. >> the story is the market paying attention i will tell you over three surveys beginning in december or january we did three fed surveys and they all pointed to a 75 to $85 billion run off. if you weren't paying attention it's like the fed went from 0 to 95 in an instant if you were paying attention the fed went from 75 to 95 i think part of the market has priced this in i think there are some loose ends that the market doesn't quite know about the idea of selling mortgage-backed security. >> not easy. >> there's a technical aspect where the fed depends on people pre-paying if they don't get there the fed could end up selling mortgages to put pressure on the market and nobody knows the combination what big rate hikes and qt mean. >> the trick is that, you know, to pre-pay, why would you pre-pay. >> you wouldn't.

>> exactly that's the connection. >> that's the connection, that's why so the fed will have trouble running off that $35 billion. >> yeah. karen, you make a good point, some in the stock market have been feeling it and has done its damage. >> yes, i mean, we talk about the igv, high-flyer kind of names, i did a chart today, the igv versus the fang that's not the most value out there if you look at the those two, maybe you're not going to look at those two, big charts, very different graphs and what it shows is. >> do the air chart. >> the igv is like this, going down. >> nice job. >> excellent so you can see the fangs are down modestly versus the igv which at its bottom was down 32%. that is a very big correction. doesn't mean they were cheap there. i feel like there's a sort of rolling correction that's gone through the market and i have to

be long, so it's, you know, i can't time the market, which is good, so i don't have to because i just have to be long but i think a lot of it is in there already. just to get to your point i heard you say earlier today if you haven't been paying attention you were shock bid what happened today. do you think that'swhy they brought out brainard who i think is the most dubbish. >> yeah. >> if she's saying it. >> shock factor. >> if that's a hawk there's no dubs left. >> i don't think brainard want from dove to hawk overnight. she's progressed with the entire board. and the monetary policy dove is an endangered species, there's nobody who wants to hold this back they used the word exped issues is -- expeditionous .

the vice chair is the policy pulling guard for the chair. they're going to come out and lead the way i think they rolled her out because perhaps the expectations in the market that wasn't paying attention and the fed needed to socialize the more aggressive numbers. >> can i ask the guest another question. >> i want to get in our. >> sorry. >> i want to get the trade off all of this. from what steve liesman is saying and what we know where various fed officials stand, including former fed officials, it seems, jeff, there's no reason to be in the market right now unless you believe full impact, a negative impact has been inflicted on the overall average and the markets have fully priced in this tightening, opposed to pockets of the market which karen is pointing out. >> yeah, i think that is very true but like karen we have to be

long and we are long it's a matter to pick our spots to figure out where the market going from here. generally speaking, i tweeted this out yesterday, i basically said do these five to six, seven percent jerks back and forth on these individual names is indick ative of is that indicative of an early rally? -- if you're in and out of the market it's important to see the semis and q's and going down the list hold the moving day average. we attempted to break above it but that's a important question. you have nike and disney with damage as well they're not rallying from a position of strength maybe the best example is procla procl probably the ark complex you had 30% furious rally to 50 day and in the blink of an eye back down

15%. so i do get concerned the overall direction of the market. and what we're experiencing. but we're using this weakness we're now experiencing into the hawkish fed talk to start to rotate out of typical names into higher quality growth names. because as the economy slows down that's where you're going to get your performance between say now and the end of the year and probably the next year. >> yeah, okay. so question marks over banks question marks over semis. question marks over transports steve, today the s&p 500 closed below the 200-day moving average. where are we here, steve do you go with the secular growth that cop from big cap technology stock to play it quote/unquote safe. >> those big cap technology stocks, yes, they're the safer bet in the marketplace, they're the last ones to be sold off and

first to be bought back off the bottom but to jeff's point, did we see the sell off have we seen it already? or was this a little blip? it's probably a blip you had the conversation with steve liesman, $75 billion and $95 billion is a huge difference for traders. what's it mean for -- is a 25 basis point per month? that's add to what does it add to the cut. ? is another cut do traders know? if we're looking at 7 or 8 hikes per year, is that 10 is 12? nobody knows how to gauge it or aggregate those heights. so it is impossible to step in and say i'm willing to buy the bottom just yet but the large cap tech stocks is where i want the to be when the bottom is hit. >> all right steve liesman, our thanks to you, stop by more often. >> don't be a stranger will be my pleasure. thanks for having me. >> one of the words from the

traders this week has been the credit market what corporate bond etf is telling us, next guest, blond click ceo chris white, his customers include major corporate bond dealers why are we putting too much into etf's look like. >> it's great to be back the focus on etf larger issue with the corporate bond market that there's i lem it -- limited information on what's going on and we pet weight on things that look transparent like corporate bond etf. it looks like they're down so you assume the overall market is suffering but there's other numbers to contradict that point. >> chris, thanks for joining us. i read your notes. you feel current credit conditions are actually pretty constructive but you have highlighting the fact companies with levered balance sheet when

time to come back to the market and refund are going to face significantly different funding costs. talk about that. does anyone stand out in your mind here? >> i think that's the main thing. i talked about it before on the show just, you know, the bond market itself has to function well, not only for end investors but really needs to function well for many of the corporations that have been relying on debt capital to fund their operations, especially during the pandemic we saw record borrowing in 2020 and 2021, we're still seeing borrowing and deals getting done in 2022, however, i think what everybody needs to pay attention to is whether or not the market itself starts to lock up where you don't see a lot of buyingnd selling and you're seeing the values of corporate bonds gap down, that would indicate any of the companies out there that are highly levered that have a bunch of bonds coming due in the next 18 months are really going to

struggle at refinancing at rates nowhere near what they've been used to. >> it's karen. i think i saw in the note that's you said the lqd and hyg are not themselves indicators but what are the kind of things, if the market seizes up, do you see is something like broken deals? or deals they can't get done and need to pull them? we haven't seen that, are you expecting that >> yeah we haven't seen that, and i think the last time the amc deal was coming we speculated how it would be treated in the marketplace and talked about how much cash is on the sideline right now looking at these new yields to say that's a good deal for us. we're a pension fund, a insurance company that's been yield-starved for several years now. so when we see a diem deal like amc coming though it is a naomi with shakier prospects we're going to step in they even sized it up from half billion to a $1 billion deal so that tells you there's still a

lot of cash on the sidelines the two numbers to look at to understand how healthy is a corporate bond market, one of them is a transaction date number we have at bond flick called customer flow looking at net customer buying versus net customer selling and since the attack on ukraine by russia we are seeing it flat, which is normal for conditions, some sectors are hit and bonds repriced lower, but i'd be concerned if we seen net selling and bonds priced lower, because that would indicate nobody is looking to buy bonds at these yields and that would be quite concerning and would look like march 2020, april 2020 when there were material concerns about the structure of the market >> chris, when you look at the overall market in your world, how has that changed has the fed had any effect when you just said there's two

criteria you look at has the fed skewed those criteria for you have you changed anything on your analysis based on the over accommodated state the fed has had for year >> absolutely. you know, the u.s. corporate bond market cannot be decoupled from the treasury market and mortgage market and even though the fed did not buy that many u.s. corporate bonds directly they had been buying massive amounts of treasuries and mortgages. but those markets are connected in that any fixed income investor will look at a bond market based on its yield attractiveness so when the fed stops being the buyer of these which they have been for a decade now it really starts to reprice credit or all fixed income instruments quite aggressively that's why we're seeing the five-year treasury from a yield standpoint is at a four-year high and ten-year is at a three-year high.

this is what we should expect given few weeks ago the fed ceased all bond buying across mortgages and treasuries as well the second indicator, i want to make sure we get to this, you have to look at what dealers are doing in the corporate bond market i think the dealers and how active they are and the bid offer spreads that they are offering in the marketplace. irdo believe i gave some data that we have at bond click regarding bid offer spreads. you want to look at that because it tells how expensive to trade the corporate bond market. if bid offer spreads really widen out it's a really negative indicator in terms of what the future holds in terms of a well-functioning corporate bond market, because i think what we all can expect is that yes, fixed income will be repriced and corporate bonds will lose value because interest rates are going higher and the fed has to sell out of $9 trillion position which you could do an entire show on. but for now, are people able to trade?

the answer yes, you can trade in this market that's really important. can you bring new bonds to this market yes, that said, i would really pay attention to condition going forward because changes could make this market rocky and i don't think the fed will be the buyer of last resort like in 2020. >> chris, if do you that show we'll certainly call you thank you, good to see you jeff, i think what chris says under scores the notion you have to look at balance sheet of companies entering this environment, highly levered ones with debt too, it's going to be rough sledding for them. >> yeah, i think that's absolutely correct and i've actually been having a lot of conversations with our fixed income team in terms of our positioning in the bond market because we're overweight credit and will probably remain overweight credit. but the one thing that i think is important that i'll point out is look at high-yield spreads,

if the market is still functioning very well they're about as tight as they were in 2015-2018 tightening cycle, the question is when did spreads widen? when pmi peaked and growth started to slow which is what is happening right now so high yields in particular have nowhere to go but up. >> all right, coming up -- signs of life in today's down day. which stocks can bring healthy returns? names next, "fast money" back in two.

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low pe's, i don't know, also the tone congress used to be anti-big pharma but post-pandemic that's a lot different now. so i'm staying with the trade, it's a good place to hide. >> i think it's great place to hide and duck tails on the last conversation in the last block these will be difficult in both credit and rate environment. there's some starting to break out. like merck has been in two year sideways pattern in a stock that's been frustrating. i'm long merck i'm also long on the sector. they just gave a pharma pipeline update and it's exciting the growth dynamic of the company trading 17 times trailing. again, somewhere breaking through the mid 80s two years ago. i think this is where you want

to look. names like lilly has been a monster. that's something you can play relative value because at some point it is getting crowded. some folks spent a lot of time here i don't think people are running out. unh is a monster. >> here's a would you rather, we haven't done in some time. i will do it by sector, jeff mills, i will ask you, the top three performers today, utilities, staples or health care which is your defensive pick >> so mine probably would be health care. i would think if you were really worried about a recession than you would want to be in utilities. i actually ran numbers really quickly before the show but if you look at performance between yield curve inversion and recession, health care is not your best sector, utilities is, usually up 25% versus the s&p which is up 7. then you have health care in the middle usually up 13%. i like to play the middle ground defensive area here. i've been beating that economic

slow down drum i will probably continue to do that i don't think we're going to go into some severe crisis sort of recession and health care acts really well. it bounced off the 125 if you look at xlv three times. now we're at break out watch around 140 if you are playing the entire sector an etf like that is interesting at this point. >> steve, same question to you. >> yeah i would go utilities for all of the reasons jeff just said because i do believe there will be a fed-induced recession. i don't think it will be a soft landing. they have to induce a recession to stop inflation, that's their path, that's their mandate having said that, if i was buying health care i'd stay in name karen mentioned abbvie it outperformed on a three-month basis all of the rest of the group by five to one and compared to pfizer more than that because pfizer is negative. abbvie is up 3.5%

they've broadened their base of drugs, abbvie is probably where i would stay although would wait for a slight pull back. >> all right we're just getting started on "fast money" here's what's up next. >> announcer: consumer concern, are the charts pointing to trouble? the traders break down the names that worry them most plus, puff, puff, pop. till ray surging on the back of earnings, so will the smoke keep riseing? the traders are lighting up this trade ahead you're watching "fast money", live from the nasdaq marketsite in time square, we're back right after this

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welcome back to "fast money" consumer stocks, the worst performers of the s&p, direction airy down -- all down sharply are these signs of cracks in the consumer karen, you follow this sector closely >> i do. >> should we be worried about the consumer >> i mean, the consumer is certainly under pressure, right, with rates rising and with commodities rising everything is more expensive, but i think, these were not super frothy stocks to begin with one on the list i own and steve does as well, is capri, it's beginning to be a ridiculous multiple of 8 or 9, not sure where it closed. but i'm still okay with the consumer, bet on the consumer. >> yeah, bank of america had this really no doubt today on the consumer and basically said household savings are about two

time what's they were pre-pandemic level for both the high end as well as low-end household. so everybody is in better shape. does that mean you want to start spending that saving stock pile on new yoga pants or what not. >> new sneakers. >> no, i think that's exactly right. that's part of the reason i just said i don't think growth going to all of a sudden fall off a cliff, even if we do get a recession maybe it sends up being a mild one, because we do have the familiar story in the background, the labor market is strong, and the savings and capacity for consumers to borrow that serves as fundamental support but if you're talking about acute pressure on consumer spending, i have a macro chart, it's falling ream income inflation has been outpacing wage growth. that's problematic for spending in the near term and other things related to interest rates, it's harder to monetize

the sale of an appreciative house, mortgage rates are higher and the payment is higher, so buying things to furnish the house and things with that purchase you're going to see additional pressure not to mention the demand pull forward we're seeing if you look at consumer direction airy has been the amazons and tesla and service oriented name that's have outperformed so that's going to continue to do well as we see some of the issues with good spending in particular. >> if you look under the hood, to jeff's point and to the point karen made about the tech sector, look at pockets of the tech they've been beaten and mega cap tech have been holding up, steve, same with drerks -- directionary holding up the sector, looking under the hood smaller names are doing awfully. >> yeah and i think it's

important to look for the higher end. to be in lvnh. -- when you see a system off like pbh or capri has been dismal performance and the average investors has a knee-jerk reaction where you say recession, sell all discretionary spending and that doesn't go in one bucket look at auto and retailing a little bit safer. walmart closing at all-time high today shares up more than 2% is this the kind of retailer you want to be in, tim >> you do because karen brought up the ability to extract the most value out of both the consumer and push prices through and i'd say they have the best ability to push around their suppliers right now. this is also a company that as we get into the charts and

performance has really under performed its peers so the valuation relative to itself looks interesting. i think in the secular trend we talk about with e-commerce, walmart doesn't get enough e-commerce multiple and it highlights why walmart is particularly valued. >> coming up, metal on our minds, president biden pushing for lithium in focus the ceo of company will lay out of future for lithium. plu mary jane jumps, shares of tilray profits next, "fast money" back in two >> announcer: get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast. catch us any time anywhere follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're ba rhtft ts.ckig aerhi y f. ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this.

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welcome back to "fast money", check out pot stock tilray lighting up on the back of monster earnings report, posting surprise profit this quarter announcing distribution deal for hemp products with amazon's whole foods and plans to hit $4 billion in revenue by 2024 compared to roughly $650 million analysts were projecting

for this year. so tim, what did you make of the numbers? >> i thought the numbers were as expected, in terms of the top line and profitability and tilray continue to be one of the most profitable companies in cannabis from adjusted ebitda we know because of the tax issues on the sector. this whole foods deal is very important. their manitoba harvest brand to be in stores this is the distribution where irwin simon shines i think people have not given enough credit for acquisition in the spirit and beer industries that are balance-sheet creative and that their european business is truly well ahead of the competitors. people like to point out the competing market is not the u.s. market, i agree, they have some derivative exposure to the u.s. that could happen. the legislation in the u.s. is not a question of if, it is certainly when, and i think this company is well positioned everybody talks about having a brand in the space, if a company

has a brand i think it will be tilray. >> yeah, check out shares of paypal dropping 4% on pace for worse two day run since early february and more pain ahead, tony with the action, what are you seeing >> yes, paypal and payment stocks had a pretty rough day. one trader made a simple but bearish bet on paypal buying over 1500 contracts of the june 92.5 puts for an average price of $3.25 and just to put that into context this trader laid out more than half million in premium to buy these fairly out of money put options, 92.5 strike prices. the break even require the stock to decline more than 20% by the june expiration just to break even so this trader believes you could see some significant moves in the next three months or so. >> yeah. karen, what do you make it of this giant move lower for

paypal >> i think it is more indicative of the high-23 flying, high multiples, it's still considered cheap, square down, sofi down as well and the banks are down, even though the pe's are much lower but still correction is down. >> tony zhang thank you for more "options action" tune in to the full show on friday at 5:30 eastern. coming up. big banks on deck and the general with a chart to tell the story for the sector first, heavy metal, lithium production, we're joined by ceo of lithium americas to break down what it means for the company. the interview is next. more "fast money" in two

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ace. advantage! you cannot be serious... get your tv together with the best of live and on demand. directv stream. now get $30 off over 3 months. welcome back to "fast money", shares of lithium americas dropping nearly 15% in the last two days, the move as senator man chin pushed back on the ambitious ev plan. the stock has more than doubled over the past year let's bring in jonathan evans, great to have you back, welcome. >> thank you. >> i want to ask about lithium,

prices we've seen with so many metals sky rocketing across the board, particularly after the ukraine invasion, so i'm wondering, with the administration's move to invoke dpa, defense production act, when you heard that happen, did you think my timeline for producing lithium in america has actually moved up? has it changed anything many terms of injure timeline >> for terms of your timeline >> for our company we're on path with that of before, production soon as possible in the united states second half of this yee -- year i think dpa crystalizes the concerns making it national economic security issue. in addition to the moves with $7 billion in supply chain grants has come together as a very comprehensive strategy really if you look compared to other countries in the world is

more comprehensive than what we've seen in recent history around an issue like this which has really taken the fore with the invasion of ukraine and supply chain and deglobalization going on right now >> i wonder how you view the administration's focus now on this issue, is a positive, in that perhaps even a strategic reserve of important metals like this for the united states or could it potentially be a negative in that the united states might take a more active role in where you export the met ale ifal if -- metal if you are to export it. >> i think it's a positive move and there's details we need to understand there's potentially additional funding coming with this but it's a signal more than anything where the government would like the private sector to step up and move quicker, given the growth we've seen in electric vehicle adoption and the national economic security issues that i think are a big

worry, not only for the administration but for americans in general given the challenges we're seeing. >> jonathan, it's tim. can you give us some of your framework where you see lithium prices, carbon hydroxide in the next year or two, and capex for you is getting more expensive. >> the pricing has come up a bit. there's a big focus on spot pricing. that is moderated a little bit if you want a view on pricing look at the public filings in the space where you are seeing pricing in the 20 to 35,000 range which significantly increased in the last two years, for sure, but very helpful that helps to address the problem we talked about getting capital deployed to start building these facilities for the supply chains that are already well-ahead of us, in some cases investments that have

been committed by oem's. the second piece, yes, plays into it as well where capex inflation across the board, not only projects underway but ultimately ones being contemplated are going to be expensive as as long as we think this inflation environment will continue, there's no end in sight in the short-term and will push up development cost and pricing should help support that, there's a lot of people interested in getting involved in this industry given it is sold out at this point and will be for the next several years. >> so jonathan, when i look at your stock, i look at a stock that was at 40, $42 or somewhere therabouts back in november, traded down to $24 or therabouts and now is back up again so melissa touched on this a little bit what is the biggest contributory factor is politics right now? what are we looking at for the retail or institutional investor

that is buying your stock tomorrow and doesn't have the stomach for that move. what should they look at as the tail on your name. >> for us it's real focus on execution this year. we have two main focuses right now to get the project completed in construction by the end of the year and a lot of excitement around the becker pass asset the movement there, we have plans to start that later in the year, those will be catalysts along with collaboration with the department of energy on the loan program office and other grants out there will all be catalysts. we're the largest and most advanced projects in the united states and one of the largest deposits in the world. our stock has done well compared to other lithium companies in production, ev stocks in general, up 67% year-to-date tesla is down year-to-date i think it shows our shareholders and market in general a big belief in what

we're doing and potential growth in the future what we have in terms of the asset base. >> in terms of the becker pass spin off or separation from lithium americas is that on track should investors look for? -- >> it's something we're exploring. we have started the discussions to see what that would look like when you look at our asset-base, you look at argentina or latin america versus the united states, the routes to financing and the market dynamics and challenges are much different in latin america versus the u.s.. this potentially allows a way to unlock more shareholder value by having more management focus in each of the regions that is very, very specific to the challenges those have versus potentially having capital allocation alignment at the top level with potential strategic partners we're talking to in the u.s. there's a huge move in north america by oem's and other folks

in supply chain for direct interaction with lithium suppliers and or i would say supply chain in general to make sure that there's going to be stable supply and i think there's a large part of the investment community which really likes that approach first perhaps global one with more flisk other markets, just different fundamentals >> right jonathan, great to see you thank you. hope you'll come back. jonathan evans of lithium a americas jeff mills that's not many pure play ways, another publicly traded stock is altomare but that's a small part of the business, would you go with lac which hasn't produced an ounce of lithium from its mines yet. >> i do think they have a geographic advantage against alb, no chile or china exposure. i like that they have massive

revenues tied to production, just a matter of whether they can get the production out of the ground up the stock could easily fall 25% to october break out level. be wear. size it appropriately. >> coming up, traders are gearing up for big bank earnings, one chart that tells the true story that's next when "fast money" is back in two. 101 to split across the top five stocks in the s&p 500®. you can also unlock short videos, step-by-step guides, and other easy-to-use tools designed for people just getting started. plus, investment professionals are on standby 24/7 if you ever have a question. it's investing 101, reimagined.

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big banks feeling the blues, check out citi group and goldman sachs trading at 52-week lows as earnings season kicks off next week, we will hear from jpmorgan, morgan stanley and many more. you got a chart? on financials. what is it? >> i think this is interesting actually if you look at relationship between banks and interest rates, banks outperform when interest rates rise, intuitive but lately interest rates are rising and banks relative performance is falling off the cliff. so what's that mean? i think one we're close to a peek in rates. people look at me side ways when i say that but i think it could be true. i also think it means there's a low bar heading into earnings. all this reminds me of 2018,

yields were up throughout the year, banks lagged, utilities and growth peeked and fed cut rates so it is not the best set up from here it's worth paying attention to relative to bank earnings and the macro picture. >> which bank is most important to watch karen, you shocked me. you said something other than jpmorgan. >> whoa, whoa. >> well, okay. i certainly own jpmorgan i own but the one i am most interested in for this coming quarter is bank of america i totally agree with jeff, the bar is getting lower and lower we've had this -- there seems to be this thought that the two year ten-year spread is indicative of how bank earnings will do and that's not true. if you look at 10k they tell you how we'll doe if rates move this or that way. you look at bank of america 10k it says if rates, the front end goes up, curve flattens, short

end they'll make $4.9 billion extra in net interest income and long end lose 735. net net $4.25 billion extra. not only does not hurt it helps. so i think the bar is lower. that's good. i think net interest income will be better than people fear jpmorgan, goldman sachs, they have more exposure to the deal-making business versus last year at this time is not bad but last year was ridiculously hot so bank of america is also the most u.s.-centric. i like it for that reason as well we won't see any european contagion there. and the valuation. so at 12 times earnings not super frothy. >> maybe the citi and goldman sachs charts today, tim, tell you that the concern is there, all these things but also the little risk of european contagion from russia-ukraine. >> citi has to prove it needs to belong

in the quality camp of bank of america. and jpmorgan still sits on top part of my call here on bank of america that would be my chart too because i think it is the best tell. it's middle of the road. money centric bank sentitivit. i think you will see banking and capital markets being very resilient in q1. it is difficult to guide q2. but it's interesting remember their balance sheets are as good as ever and are paying divs and want to pay more i think you can ride through this >> all right up next final trades

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time for the final trade let's go around the horn, steve grasso >> so for the same reason why tilray eventually jumped there's going to be that legislative tailwind to it, i think cronos is the next to jump. all these stocks have been decimated and are dup for a pop, but a continued pop. cronos. >> jeff mills. >> so xtn. transport etf. generally speaking the transports look weak, they should given the outlook on the economy. i'd be lightings it up here. >> tim >> the reason the fed has been

out of control you want to own gold and u.s. can throw sanctions on you any time, another reason to own gold. >> karen >> i think the capri hit is over done, cheap here at eight times. >> thank you for watching "fast money" see you back here tomorrow at 00ororfa5: f me st my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money" welcome to xhempblth i'm trying to make you some money my job is not just to intertain you. call me 1-800-743-cnbc you had the stockmarket all of a sudden, you wish you neverrd