it is 5:00 a.m. on wall street here is your top five at 5:00. twist in elon musk's twitter drama. get the coffee ready short, but busy trading week with the data all on tap including what could be a bombshell inflation number. getting grim in china. another big city begins to lockdown this is some shanghai residents struggling to get food and they are getting angry. we are live on the ground. lockdowns sending oil down

a tanker filled with russia products still heading to america weeks after the ban. the morning rbi on why recession may not just be around the corner good economic news we can use on this monday, april 11th. this is "worldwide exchange. well good morning, good afternoon or good evening. welcome from wherever in the world you are watching i'm brian sullivan good monday morning. congratulations to scottie scheffler for winning the masters. his first major championship he's only 25 originally from new jersey he is currently ranked number one in the world he finished the masters at 10 under and going home more than 2 million bucks richer congratulations to ridgewood,

new jersey's own scottie scheffler. let's get to your money. golf was good, but futures not as nice. especially for technology stocks once again nasdaq futures are down more than 1%. in fact, they were down more than on the nominal basis than the dow. it could be a rough day for tech it is early and we have a way to go despite april one of the better months of the year for the equity markets, a rough start. nasdaq down 3.5% this month. dow is higher by .10%. in the bond market, the yield curve inversion is no more 10-year yield back above shorter term interest rates are soaring 10-year at 2.57% the balance sheet unwinding and taking a larger toll on the bond market than many expected. we are seeing interest rates

spike higher in the oil market, crude is lower. china lockdowns hitting global oil demand especially with jet fuel use we'll show you more in a couple of minutes in crypto, bitcoin and ethereum are down there has been an interesting diff diverge. bitcoin staying put. let's go around the world. red overnight in asia. stocks in china and hong kong with losses there. follows the data of chinese inflation surged in march. this as tens of millions of chinese are suffering through harsh and ineffective covid lockdowns. a similar story in trading in europe rosanna lockwood has the look at the trade around the world rosanna, good morning. >> good morning, brian

inheriting the inflation in europe feeling negative across the boards just the cac in paris in the green. i'll come back to that focus on the ftse 100, d down .50%. focus on the ftse which is holding up well, but not today dax in germany is down cac up under .50%. moving around in the session today. back on the flat line and bouncing back up the euro/dollar. it is all about the french elections. marine le pen and emmanuel macron leading the way into the april 24th runoff. the euro/dollar. it is not finding bullish sentiment. up .25% against the greenback as we head into the april 24th final round. >> we have circled that on the

calendar thank you, rosanna lockwood, in london. let's get back to the corporate story. elon musk twitter saga he decides not to take a seat on the company's board after buying nearly 10% of twitter. bertha coombs is here with more on the latest twist. i'll not say it is getting weird, bertha, but it sure is interesting. >> reporter: you know, it reminds me of the old emily on "saturday night live." never mind musk abandoning the plans to join the board the announcement saying he would not be taking the seat musk's appointment would have started saturday contingent on a background check and formal acceptance he did not give any reason for

changing his mind about the board seat the tesla ceo remains the largest shareholder of twitter and the company will remain open to the input this comes less than a week after musk and twitter revealed he would join the board after having disclosed he now owns more than 9% stake in the company. a filing from twitter said as long as musk served on the board, he would not be able to own more than 14.9%. perhaps that was the reason. he would not take a stake bigger than that in the company stock he could increase his stake now beyond that limit. musk was busy on the platform throughout the weekend posting a number of ideas of how to transform the social media company and its product. brian, that includes letting twitter subscribers pay with

dogecoin keeping twitter blue free of advertisements it seems since the news broke on the board decision, he has since deleted those tweets elon musk, if you wait a minute, you miss it. >> talking about converting twitter headquarters into a homeless shelter and going back and forth with jeff bezos on twitter about it a lot of speculation, berta, maybe he doesn't want the seat because he wants to buy more if that is the strategy, twitter bulls should be happy i imagine. >> reporter: i would think you know, i wonder for him and he likes to tangle with the s.e.c. he doesn't want to do it on two fronts >> or five or how many fronts he has going on exactly. a lot going on by the way, the man sleeps less than we do, bertha coombs.

i'm not sure that is a comp complement see you in a few minutes back to the markets. still a busy one everyone is going to watch a couple of things huge inflation data which really is the first that shows the price spikes after putin's war those numbers could be the worst inflation headlines wis we haver seen big banks have earnings coming up let's tie it together and bring in lee baker lee, if you know where things are headed, you are a better man than i am with the crystal ball. i hope i'm not doing tv hy hyperbole at 5:08 a.m. those numbers could be terrible. >> brian, i have a crystal ball. unfortunately, it is onyx and

sadly i only see my reflection the inflation rate is 8.8% that is a big number it won't take a crystal ball for us to get on the same page that is a really big number. >> it could be you wonder has the market, though, already reacted to it? the bond market is moving aggr aggressively, lee. the stock market is moving as well you wonder how bad this or the other numbers may be, has the market already made the call for it i think that's the question. >> in my opinion, the answer to that question is yes the market made that move. i think we're going to have to see something that is drastically different from those numbers. with what's going on in russia and ukraine and there's the expectation that

add additional weight. we have heard what it might do to grain supplies because of russia and ukraine traditionally add to the global markets from that perspective what is going on with oil? europe's dependance on russian oil. all that comes into play i think it is already baked into what the market is expecting >> you wonder if that fed balance sheet unwinding is doing with the inflation data. the bond market, lee, even fixed income people are taken aback by the violent move in the bone ma bond market. they are not day trading bonds how does this effect the stock market >> we have been doing things with clients and saying we have

a couple of dynamics here. we already know we're in an inflationary environment we know that we're moving in or have moved into a scenario where w we are having an increased interest rate. what types of things do well in that environment one caveat is what does it mean when you add into the mix the war in russia invading ukraine. what can we expect and tilt client portfolios to add more in the commodity space and more in the reits. we have more coming this weekend and traditionally with this environment, you have more in financials the earnings reports in the next couple days will be very are interesting to watch >> yeah, maybe some of the most important earnings in years. hopefully that also is not an overstatement. lee baker, i appreciate you getting up early have a great day and week. talk to you soon >> happy to be with you.

we have more to do here on a busy monday. thank you. when we come back, more on elon musk's decision to abandon the board seat at twitter or was it entirely his call? plus, where are all of the workers? the crushing reality facing millions of small businesses across america later, more on oil several super tankers filled with russian oil and oil products are still heading here. how is that possible we'll tell you coming up

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welcome back 5:14 here on this monday it is monday morning it is early. you are waking up. optimistic for the week. maybe you want to go back to bed or make coffee nasdaq futures are indicating another tough day. s&p and dow futures are low. dow off 116. big tech is what you have to watch. nasdaq is down more than 1%. they he are down more than the dow. we don't see that a lot. they are off 153 points right now. it is early and things could change higher rates are taking a toll on big tech. what about oil it's good news if you are a driver gasoline prices, which have fallen 8 cents a gallon in the last week, should fall again oil continues the decline on the

china covid lockdowns. shanghai locked down guanzhou is locked down. we will show you more on jet fuel which could be impacted wti crude is down 2.5% brent crude is above $100. we rieferenced the bond market. the inversion is no longer inverted 10-year yield back above the 2-year as the fed balance sheet unwinds and taking its toll on fixed income if you own or run a small business, you know two things are true number one, incredibly hard to find employees particularly good ones two, if you can, you have to pay them more and whatever you think about that and higher pay, it will have a big impact on the overall economy. remember, most people work for small companies. not big ones all this, by the way, happening

as the house passes another $55 billion spending package meant to help restaurants and bars joining us to talk about it is john stanford. john, good to have you back on i'm sure viewers could tell the same story pretty much every business has a help wanted sign in front of it and offering all kinds of perks. is there any sign the job market has loosened up at all >> there is no sign whatsoever we continue to see the number one thing holding back explosive small business growth is people can't find the employees to service jobs recent data we have seen from a number of sources shown higher quit rates we see people moving or slightly better benefits or pay small business owners are doing all they can to hold on to the assets people delivering for customers that come to them. >> we all want people to make as

much money as they can higher pay we love it helps families live. it results in inflation. it is a double-edged sword small companies don't have the pricing power to pass on the higher costs to the consumer that say a costco or a walmart or a target make you hear from them is there anything they are asking for that might help anything that can be done about this, john >> yeah, we're asking for a lot of things. a lot of them have to do with leveling the playing field for recruiting employees you talk to employees of small business owners, you find how proud they are to be at a local mom and pop or growing start up. there are some real discr discrepancies with what the big companies can offer. one good example is health insurance. regardless of how you feel about the implementation of the

for affordable care act, the small business is broken and they cannot come pettini competitive offer the same benefits. we are seeing small businesses at a disadvantage. we are willing to pay more we have seen more small business owners preparing to pay more going in the rest of the year, but 20% and only 20% of small business owners, think they can find a worker they need. >> it's a great point on health care, john you know, we talked about health care vis-a-vis covid for two years. the macro insurance environment was a problem before covid and exposing holes as well is there a reason -- listen, we talked about a lot of heavy stuff on monday. inflation and health care cost and hard to find employees

leave us with optimism people want to work for themselves they like working for small businesses owning a small business is an american dream there must be a reason to be optimistic >> you are right that's a great place to leave it on monday morning. evntrepreneur spirit is strong we will find small businesses growing. we will be able to afford more workers. we remain optimistic as ever there are challenges, but as long as the economy continues to boom and we can open up and everyone can get back, we know entrepreneurs will come out on top. >> yeah. that desire to create a bit and run your own business. that has been there and it's growing and exciting we'll see where it leads john stanford, i appreciate you

coming on. thank you. happy easter. on deck, the scary story from shanghai where extreme covid lockdowns are leaving people wondering how to get food and some of them screaming out their windows. eunice yoon is up next with that what if you were a major transit system with billions of passengers taking millions of trips every year? you aren't about to let any cyberattacks slow you down. so you partner with ibm to build a security architecture to keep your data, network, and applications protected. now you can tackle threats so they don't bring you to a grinding halt. and everyone's going places, including you. let's create cybersecurity that keeps your business on track.

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getting worse. the southern city of guangzhou is warning classrooms to get back online and warning residents not to leave the area as new spreads and residents are facing problems to buy food. some are scared to go to the hospital for medical treatments. this as china says no one is in the hospital for covid it sounds confusing. it is. let's try to make sense of it with eunice yoon who is here from beijing eunice, i know it is sensitive over there we whip keep it top line they have 30,000 cases and no deaths and one person went to the hospital that sounds like good news on the other hand, lockdowns and we see videos of people screaming and crying out the window because they don't have food can you square the two

>> reporter: yeah. it's difficult because there have been a lot of people online questioning the numbers. especially because there have been several reports out of hospitals that take care of the elderly where orderlies have seen bodies in bags. we don't know if these are covid cases, but that's the whole story that's going on right now in terms of the numbers of deaths in terms of the people who are shouting and screaming outside the windows, those videos are plentiful online the government is trying to take some of those videos down. people have been in lockdown from before officially shanghai went into lockdown some people have been there for four weeks or five weeks shouting at police saying they have not been able to get food now guangzhou residents have

started to hoard food. we hhave seen residents eyeing the food shortage. guangzhou are in the second or third round of mass testing. you mentioned the schools shutdown, brian. schools have been shutdown if you want to leave guangzhou, you need a 48-hour covid test before being allowed to leave. we talked about the fair that venue has been converted or in the process of converting canton fair into the quarantine center >> is there, eunice, is there any and i know with the media over there and the government control is very hard to have a different opinion officially is there anybody pushing back

from a high level of the government saying with omicron or whatever variant it may be over there, obviously, here in the united states, lockdowns probably don't work very well. we had cases soared in the united states. that's just the data it's an airborne virus it is difficult to control is there anybody pushing back on what the government is doing and saying is it going to work anyway w what's the point >> reporter: there have been some epidemiologists who raised it in a sensitive way. by and large, officially, the align is still the same. china will stick with zero covid. the approach is the right one. in fact, the foreign ministry criticized the united states because the u.s. embassy said they were going to allow some of the non-essential workers in

shanghai to leave the city they warned americans about coming to some of the hot spot areas because of what they considered arbitrary quarantine. the foreign ministry was saying this is outrageous and you call it arbitrary and our policies work just fine. >> quickly, could an american embassy worker leave the country? fly home and get out >> reporter: yes, you can. i'm sure with the embassy, they would have more special ways to get out. for a regular american who would want to leave, you can, but the process is really, really challenging. if you want to, for example, travel as a regular person around shanghai, you need special permission from the government so you can make your trip from your hotel to the airport. there are a lot of processes

involved to try to get out >> i know. we have seen the videos of people screaming out windows or crying and saying they have no access to food and can't pay bills. it's tough one person i positive, which happened in the united states all winter long, and everybody is locked down eunice yoon, we are thinking about you. coming up, elon musk on the decision to bail on the board seat or did the company bail on him? we'll talk about it next hybrid work is here. it's there. it's everywhere. but for someone to be able to work from here, there has to be someone here making sure everything is safe. secure. consistent.

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welcome or welcome back. good monday morning. thank you for joining us i'm brian sullivan 5:30 a.m. on the east coast. unfortunately, you want to grab another cup of coffee. markets are looking tough. big tech stocks. nasdaq futures are down more than dow futures down over 1% right now this interest rate spike may hit big tech again today nasdaq futures off 142 dow futures look good. down 93. down only one-third big tech oil is down. trading under $100 china covid lockdowns we talked about with eunice yoon is hitting jet fuel this is a china airport use

index from space note. you see the drop off shanghai lockdown and oil building up offshofre we will talk more in a moment. let's bring in jon najarian. a cnbc contributor jon, great to have you on. i have to ask about this twitter situation. musk buys it people love it he says he's joining the board talking about a homeless shelter. deletes the tweets the board reached a mutual decision not to join what's your take >> i don't think twitter wanted change of the scoort that mr. ms wanted to bring. i loved the tweets if nobody is coming into the office, let's turn it into a homeless shelter or get rid of

"the w." i think twitter was not ready. i think it was defensive move. i'm sure you think the same for them to invite him on the board. thereby, if he was fully placed on the board, he wouldn't be able to go activist for 15 months or more he's already changed that designation from passive on his filings with the s.e.c i think twitter was a little overconfident that they could calm mr. musk and get him to be nice and play nice i don't think he wants to play nice with a group that doesn't want to play nice, either. i think that board is not going to be very friendly to the price of twitter because of this move with musk in particular. >> yeah. the statement by the ceo which you will talk about after you

was corporate-ish. do you think the board was afraid of musk >> yes he is the richest man on the planet and bigger than anybody on the board i doubt he would be tolerant of fools. i'm sure there are several on that board that's what twitter has become just the echo chamber that doesn't want an outside voice as strong as his. i don't think he could be tamed. i think that's part of why this just didn't work out, brian. in full disclosure, i lost money on that part because although i caught it early on the rise up, i bought 50 calls last week as i rolled up that position and now this morning shares are trading down hard again. it's looking like those 50 calls won't be paying off for me >> well, i'm a little confused

i'm easily confused, jon confused why the stock is down because now he's not joining the board, there is speculation. it is all speculation that now he's free to buy more than 14.9% of the company maybe he'll buy the whole thing. that's just speculation why he didn't join the board. if you believe that, maybe some do and some don't. i'm not saying it will happen. if you believe it, wouldn't that be good for the stock? >> overall, yes. at what level? in other words, elon musk has never cared all that much about possessions. i think he'll be a prudent buyer. i don't think he will get in there and fight for the stock. he'll say, if you guys are going to kill the stock, i'll buy it again at the sub-40 level or 30s. based on the twitter fight right

now, it is likely to get there as long as he is a patient buyer, he can pick it up cheaper. >> jon, we love having you on. jon najarian market rebelrebellion. let's stay with this theme and a alex you heard about what we are saying about the board statement. it is lawyered up. we know that is there anything we can read from it? >> i think so. it looks like a benign statement. there are land mines in there. you don't refer to the fiduciary duty or distractions ahead unless you have specific things. we can take a guess at some of the that musk filed the declaration of the stake late late enough that he saved $170

million on the purchase. the s.e.c. might have questions about that that might have played poorly with the fiduciary duty to the shareholders we take a guess. musk is not tied to the 14.9% stake. if he wants a controlling stak of twitter and take it private, he can afford to do it with hundreds of billions to spare. they know they have a fight ahead. i don't think this was as passive as corporate a move as they might feel and they are forced to make it up. >> i 100% agree, alex. you talk about the statement from the ceo of twitter. it was almost like, i don't want to call it threatening to musk, but talk about duty and this and that you wonder we will give you the

board seat, but we have to investigate a lot of things in your back ground and past and you and dig into things you may chooses to not dig into. musk probably said no thanks >> right exactly. the board seat was always openly an effort to tie musk's hands. it looks like the top line of no more than 14.9% was a deal he w wanted to agree to, but going forward would be constraining. the deal for twitter and musk, was it the constraints or the disclosures? is it that musk has a vision for twitter that he feels like he can only achieve with total control rather than one voice among many or is it that musk is a character who is ill suited to a simple board seat on a publicly traded company? is it he needs that leeway that

being sole owner or techno king get you and anything less, he is not a corporate man and can't play in the field. >> it makes sense. he is so big walking in that room and would be a distraction. twitter is a small niche player. do you think he likes the company so he bought the stock do you think he thinks he can change it? >> i think he bought the stock because it is something he uses a lot and as i understand it, when you have that much cash floating around, sometimes you buy the things you like. buying a sports team, right? he is investing in something that is a hobby for him. that said, he wanted to change it before he disclosed his stake, he talked about changes with the edit button and afterwards, talking about more changes the question is not musk having

things to change about twitter absolutely he does it is whether or not he is buying as an investment or toy does he want to make it more fun to use or change twitter to make it a social network and build up to a larger company? i think that split is the thing we're talking about with the fiduciary duty you are not allowed to buy a small stake in a company as a toy. >> with pocket change for him, by the way al ex hern, thank you this story will play out. coming up, russian oil and oil products are still on the way to america even weeks after biden's ban. that's next.

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imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon? in other words... etoro.the power of social investing. welcome back it may seem hard to believe, but right now, there are super tankers on the ocean filled with russian products and gas additives and some may be headed here to america. remember, the sanctions gave a 45-day grace period for american companies to buy russian oil and many did some of that has yet to hit our shores here with us is clayton. it is hard to believe. there are still ships filled with oil and other oil-related products headed here >> brian, thanks for having me

that is the case when the biden administration imposed the ban on rush and oil imports, it did give the 45-day window for trades and anything pre-purchased before march 8th to make its way onshore. that deadline expires at 12:01 a.m. on april 22nd coming in on april 21st. according to energy firm, there are three ships left carrying russian oil on the way to the united states. a couple of them should be arriving on wednesday this week and then the very last one we are tracking is named from the crow croatian city. it should arrive in new orleans a few days ahead of the deadline >> by the way, the tanker tracker does a great job you gave me the names over the

weekend. i looked up one of the ships one ship coming in is coming from freeport, bahamas, to corpus christi, texas. it is not a russian port they are going somewhere else, stopping, so it is harder to track. this is a game they're playing >> it is part of the normal oil trading operations to sometimes stop over in storage hubs. you raise an important question here the number of cargo diversions of russian oil increased in recent weeks one of the examples is a lot of the ships that were on the way here have been rerouted. some of them to those caribbean oil terminals like the bahamas and st. croix. what happens next to that russian oil and caribbean tanks is important they cannot legally come here.

the problem is the ship tracking platforms will say the ship was loaded in the bahamas and destination is houston or corpus christi. you lose the visibility on the origin that raises the prospect of call it oil laundering, like money laundering who is keeping up with the russian oil that is laying over in other countries i believe the technology existing to do that. the platforms are not tracking that closely to ship and tank and back we need government and industry to get together to crack this code >> is it likely we could be buying russian oil after the ban on april 21st without knowing it >> yeah, it is possible. it is going to be important not only for the united states, which, remember imported a relatively small volume of

russian oil before this ban will go into effect especially if there are more bans on russian oil. we look to the eu and other countries in europe. if they are doing something similar, we have to track this carefully. >> that's when it will get interesting with oil prices. clay, i appreciate your view fascinating stuff on the ships we're watching clay, have a great day. on deck, morning rbi offering up a clue when one big bank saying a recession may be coming. plus, tiffany mcghee is here to layout what you need to know. we are celebrating literacy month. here is ndamukong shrsuh >> i wish i had it growing up. it becomes prevalent in life

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staying up half the night searching for savings on your prescriptions? just ask your cvs pharmacist. we search for savings for you. from coupons to lower costs options. plus, earn up to $50 extra bucks rewards each year just for filling at cvs pharmacy. time for the morning rbi let's talk about the american economy and where this great multimillion dollar beast may be headed there is a growing talk of rising recession many are saying not if, but when morgan stanley thinks they have a good idea about that chief economist ellen zentner has the latest here is a lot of lines it is a chart going back 25

years. the orange and blue lines are morgan stanley's numbers the gray numbers are the recessions 2001, financial crisis in the middle, and lockdown shock in 2020 we hit a recession, and the probability is 100%. look at it now morgan stanley's models on the far right. the upturn in the orange is higher nowhere near where they were ahead of the three recessions. in fact, recently brought down the estimates, those estimates are for growth this year and next year. not contraction. this chart could change. something you want to revisit from time to time. when the orange and blue lines creep up toward the 40% level, a recession may be getting close

that means the stock market may be at risk as well we'rie going to watch the tiny right turn at the bottom right is random but interesting and not a sign of recession around the corner. let's ask tiffany mcghee about all of this. joining us tiffany, i think you would be a believer in the camp recession may come eventually, but not in the short-term. >> it is not in the short-term good morning, brian. how are you? i'm thinking back to the last time the fed started tightening. first of all, when the fed minutes came out two things wering inwere interesting. 50 basis points in may is more than the 25 point increase

also, they talked about how they he would reduce the balance sheet the last time this happened was 2017 and 2019. a couple of things were different. the pace was 50 billion, not the 95 billion in reduction they were talking about the reduction didn't start until a year after the first rate hike how stocks performed in the short-term, they did well in the first year of the balance sheet reduction. stocks took a dive about 20% that wasn't until after the tightening >> yeah. we're looking at a longer term chart of yields. tiffany, the bond market has done the work of the fed, has it not? the fed is saying we're going to do this and do that. the bond market at 2.75% on the

10-year? the bond market has become the fed, it feels like >> the bond market has been working overtime lately. as an investor, i'm thinking if that is going on, will the fed change course? do we really need the 50 basis point increase you know, listen, time will tell we do have more meetings for the rest of the year my hope is the fed will proceed cautiously as they have been doing for the past two years as we have been talking about tapering and tightening. all of these things and they made it clear they will watch the data i hope they do that in this case the bond market really has been doing the job of the fed lately. >> it certainly has. nasdaq futures, by the way, are down big tech in particular, tiffany, does look more vulnerable to rate shocks or balance sheet

shocks or whatever you want to call them. it has not been the kind of april many hoped for >> it hasn't quite honestly, it is not the year many hoped for. look at the difference in volatility between this year and last year. again, especially in tech, we can look back to 2020 and 2021 and see how well tech was performing and now in 2022, it is a different situation many people are thinking and wondering if this is a good time to buy tech? i'm always in the tech camp. for me, it is not about painting industries or types of companies with the broad brush, but for me it is balance sheets and business models. i'm looking for the diamonds in the rough companies no matter what industry which is able to

weather the headwinds. supply chain issues and rising costs. are they able to pivot and navigate in the time of major headwinds? are they able to increase margins? i'll watch for that this ev earnings season. >> thank you, tiffany. looking for companying to pivot. tiffany, thank you have a good day and great week all of you out there stock futures are down oil is down. "squawk box" is coming in next i'm unoff until wednesday. a lot going on there ha e someoe making sure everything is safe. secure. consistent. so log in from here. or here. assured that someone is here ready to fix anything.

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good morning another day, another big

headline a couple of them from elon musk. this time the tesla ceo deciding not to join twitter's board. china selloff. stocks dropping 3% over covid lockdowns and data showing the country's producer inflation surging. congratulations to scottie scheffler. the 25-year-old slipping on a green jacket after winning the 2022 masters really from start to finish. never much of a doubt. especially after number 3. it is monday, april 11th "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times