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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  April 11, 2022 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT

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>> there is no place like home. >> twitter 47 1/2 is your entry level. >> it is great to have you all back here on the desk. thanks for watching "fast money. we'll see you tomorrow "mad money" with jim cramer starts my mission is simple to make you money. i'll help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job not just to entertain but to educate put this one in perspective.
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the dow 413 points the nasdaq tumbled 2.18% let's get one thing straight i hate the big pivot i despise the large cap tech have gone out of tstyle along with the small mid cap enablers. these have been dumped into the meat grinder i don't really want to pick one fang but it's time to retire this once great acronym i created years ago. it's not their fault
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they all have fantastic stories. they can pivot too this is a market that covets value stocks and all these fang names, the ones that are really cheap a alphabet when you back out the cash and facebook. we bought today and the other one we buy more of that comes down investing club members get that call that's how things played out during the 2015 inflation scare. we were done with the flying cars, electric vehicle multiple grills. these offerings had sucked up so
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much capital, they made it difficult to keep more mature growth stocks going. i'm thrilled we were able to get so many people out of these high flying names what surprise me is inflation has gotten hotter. market all things. not just the ones with no earnings i also misjudge how much money went into crypto that ithaupgt was ready to go back into common stocks i'm confident if we get a couple of interest rate days stabilized, it would allow the best of the growth names to make a comeback we have plenty of room i don't see that happening in the near term.
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we're about to go into a series of terrifying inflation numbers. it's entirely possible with numbers, consumer price indlex will be better even if they are peaking, we still have a problem with food and oil inflation courtesy of the russian invasion of ukraine. there's a gigantic covid out break in china. this could put a lid on some inflation. it's difficult to talk about the russian invasion times and the pictures it's all horrific.
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russia is the most important energy exporter to europe. if you cut off oil and gas production, that's enough for energy prices to stay elevated i thought today's decline part of it because of the opening but part is maybe people aren't as frightened which is wrong. oil as given you a good chance to start doing some buying with quality oil companies. i want to get back to the rest of the market. i think we're still in the midst of this great reset. we have pivot out especially the big growth stock companies that represent much of the gains. so narrow. the market looks surprisingly like the old days. we're led by a balance group of sectors.
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the fed decided to raise interest rate to make fortunes off of their deposit it's happening again let me tell you what i did for the investment we cut our exposure some brutal. we told people to sell them last week we couldn't. you know the rule. if we talk about it, we can't but you can do it.
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last year we had to send out 570,000. don't get me wrong, i'm thrilled to have souch big gains. i can help those struggling. i fear the hay day of the tech giants is over when i say big pharma, i mean only big pharma. you know i like oil so much. also, some scattered tech. we'll get excited by elon musk attempting to join the board of twitter or tryi ing take it over ore sell it.
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we'll get moments where everything work. i think you'll get that. i really do. we've been saying that for the travel trust you can follow it by sdwjoininge cnbc investing club. here is the bottom line. there's no new money coming in to speak of and you're not able to get inflation adjusted for treasury but you might soon. the great pivot won't be funded by money over the transit. ly be financed by money manager selling expensive big tech stocks until the last tech becomes cheap. then and only then will we be safe running and gunning those stocks once more george in michigan george >> caller: hi, jim great to talk to you >> thank you, george what's up?
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>> caller: a couple of months back you were real interested about l3h. you got me interested. it seems to be even more of a highlight for you. i haven't heard you mention it what's your opinion? >> you know why you haven't heard me mention it. i keep waiting for a price break. i keep thinking it will come down you know how much i like it. maybe it's a sign of a great stock. it just doesn't come in. that's really great stock. let's go to wneth. >> caller: hey she's 16 ask your question. >> my name is wyneth my question is ulta. i bought a little bit of that a month ago with the intention of adding more lower.
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i've been deprived with the stock gone straight up since what are your thought on the stock from here? >> this kid got horse sense. just like the lhs. just like l3harris it's not come in yet i think it's terrific. i went into a new ulta the other day. i could not believe how gorgeous the merchandise is how well it's displayed. ulta is a winner of course happy birthday i think you get the other guy sephora, you get the stuff for your birthday. look, i hate the pivot it is ra reminder that we have o stay diversified it will be funded by money manager selling expensive tech stocks until they drive tech down to where it's cheap only then will we be able to safely run and gun those stocks. growth at a reasonable price that's what we're talking about.
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that's the new game in town. i'm revying some travel charts thank goodness first you be in the sweet spot i'll give you my take. i'm turning to one of the best analysts on the street stay with cramer >> don't miss a second of "mad money" follow on twitter. have a question, tweet cramer. send jim an e-mail or give us a call 1-800-743-cnbc miss something in head to madmoney.cnbc.com. mount everest, the tallest mountain on the face of the earth. keep dreaming. [music: “you can get it if you really want” by jimmy cliff]
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street has been in love the growth stocks. you could simply chase the companies with the fastest revenue growth and end up with wa winner yes, that meant tech they have been over for nearly six months since the fed declared war on inflation. you had to pivot into stocks with more reasonable valuations and dividend yields were big buy backs. the best was to chase growth at any price. now with the fed tightening, the market prefer something called growth at a reasonable price or garp as we used to call this business companies with better than average growth rates it's the world according to garp
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it was fa fabulous way to invest for decades. it's about to burst on the scene. growth at a reasonable price is an idea we have been circling around for a while i recommend a couple of week ago, i told you it was on track to put up double digit earnings growth i highlighted the golf stocks. masters were great that's garp too. this week i want to get more explicit and search for growth. li it's what we'll do for the rest of the year. we plan to roll them out over the course of the week they comming they are happening
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we have to wait. first we ran a growth screen. that gives you a pay ratio of one. when we're talk about a reasonable valuation, anything at one or less would generally be considered cheap and catch our eyes tonight i want to start with the travel and restaurant names. these i see are gross benefitting for the great reopening even if the fed hits the brakes on the economy. later on you hear about some
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retail names this is real research that we're doing here it's not that risk on, risk off nonsense we're look at a strong list of companies and not just tech stocks tonight i've got six travel and restaurant plays that pass this test i just went over. this is a reopening. don't let everything be obscured by inflation or russia or china lockdown let's start with expedia it's the online travel agency. that was the last full year before the pandemic. this year they get back to 2019 revenue levels
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that's because of management self-improvement efforts so many great companies did this during the pandemic. the numbers are expected to soar over the next three years. you're getting a remarkable growth rate even as stock sells for 24 times. priceline owns open reservations you have rapid earnings growth and relatively cheap stock the big difference between booking expedia, booking is more internationally oriented
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booking has come down 20% from its highs in mid-february. i think it's already being baked in the risk averse person would go for expedia. third is one i've longed since marriott marriott international this hotel chain hasn't made it back to pre-pandemic levels, it's nothing short of spectacular. they have been adding capacity they are bullish there's a very good chance they will bring dividends back there year something management mentioned it still passes our garp test.
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the stock is down about 12% from its february highs this is our concept. don't worry if you're not familiar with it yet it's going to be where we are going forward. fourth, one that i really struggled with for my charitable trust. i don't care i know it's got some issues involving things that were said that i didn't like but we're taking back. disney yes. walt disney. this one has been a real slug. with travel coming back and the dp company invested, 2022 is set to be a huge earnings year for these guys i like it more than that discovery from at&t. bank of america raised their estimates for disney siting a strong out look. sometimes it feels like disney just can't catch a break when covid was rage, it was a travel stock when travel started waning, it was a covid stock. eng we should focus on the fact
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that disney has a franchise. it's a cheap stock with excellent prospects. i hope our next move will be a buy in disney. we do want to be bigger. fifth is one i used the love and stopped talk about because of food inflation that's darden. along with a few smaller concepts. darden can take share and take names if you buy it now. you can't wait for food inflation to come down one of the best companies in the restaurant industry. don't worry about gasoline
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it used to be a big factor it's a much smaller issue. i know this because i've covered the company since 1982 didn't help that 10% of the work force tested positive for covid in january they have taken a ton of market share through this restaurant industry that's one reason the earnings are on track to double this year i think you found a good one in this system. here is the bottom line. i need you to get used to world according to garp. it's the new old way to invest people don't talk about it at all. all they do is talk about the semis and semis. yes, i did create fang
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i guess i got to live with that. you'll hear about them as the week goes on for now the garpiest stock are exp exp expedia, disney, darden. they are coming down opinion "mad money" is back after the break. kocoming up, holdw sweet it.
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age before beauty? why not both? visibly diminish wrinkled skin in... crepe corrector lotion... only from gold bond. : it's one thing to recommend the stocks of companies that make things for profit, it's which is cheap enough. when i came up with that mantra november, i was trying to
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express new found skepticism that was being valid on their sales and not their nonexist enonexistent earnings those moments do not include the times when the federal reserve is raising interest rates as i've been telling you, higher rates are long dated assets. you're paying up for big profit that is are many years down the road we have seen some collapse some companies might run out of money. the list of ipos is full of portfolio crushing we have had it with them until unflags run its course we can't be sure how long that process will take. i think it will be shorter than most people expect i can't get beloinds hind the p until the fed stop raising interest rates
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wast happened is you got to look is 20 or 30 years opinion so many of them low down on bad days that we felt it necessary to add another criteria. companies that make real things and provide real services. a month later i say you should return those profits to shareholders be it dividends or buy backs. we're looking for those companies that reward you. too many are not incline td to reward shareholders. i'm dubious about that strategy now especially if it causes them to lose money. that's no go we're not buying those anymore
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the stocks have come down along with interest rates going higher i feel like we have been too generous earlier i talked about car it's less than average stock that's always been a decent gauge. you expect to see this getting crushed. these stock will be the worst own. doesn't matter if we go with the flow, the prevailing to consumer package stocks the companies that make things you can eat or wash with or use to look and smell better
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look, they'll have hard time passing it you need to incorpkocorporate ie context of kwhast owning it. hershey is the best performer. it's never talked about. there's more holds and fewer buys of hershey they nn oi consumer package goods name. we don't need the absolute level performance. we care about the rate of change in the big numbers
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in that front, no beat hershey hands down for the longest time the stock was just a dog it was take over target where any yield could be blocked by the trustees who ran the company. it was such an endless under achiever then a new ceo came in she changed all that which took over in 2017 she immediately set out to grow the franchise. that had not been a priority extend the branch. use the cash flow to not only reward shareholders but to acquire other companies with an emphasis on salty snacks things you're all familiar with.
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skinny pop i felt these were expensive. i knew the companies when they were much cheaper or smaller these were the perfect pick ups as covid hit the nation and turneturn ed all into stay at homers that's been a big positive this company is barely dinged by them that's because hershey has awesome pricing power.% her
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hershey's got the fastest ratest change in the industry at these levels will be as the company generates more accelerated growth hershey still has tremendous pricing power. it can raise price and seems to be no resistance to it general mills, look at that stock. 32.8 campbell soup, 31.5. what an amazing lead especially given that monalese is doing well hershey can raise price with impunity p i think you can buy it
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there's too many holes in the stock. this is hershey's strongest shy of halloween none other than easter which is more shelf space devoted to their product than ever. we were hunting for some hershey easter products. some are hard to find. i think it will be the best easter ever and numbers are too low. p the bottom line is this. herp shee is the most consistent growth stock in group where safety is first. you know what they say, safety never takes a vacation i would buy some here and wait to buy more at the stock hit the next time we have an inflation scare because they have the pricing power to whether any pliesing storm i'm talking about a semiconductor. i'm talking about reese's chocolate chip david. >> caller: hi, jim i'm calling about tgs foods opinion i'm a little concerned about it.
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it doesn't steem to be going anywhere >> no. it was a favorite of mine. they used to come on air and next thing you know they stopped. that's not okay with me. you can come on air all you you want be consistent. don't just come on when it's good be consistent. okay you should want to help david. all right. you know i have found a sweet stock in this market i think you can buy hershey stock and wait to buy more as the stock gets hit doesn't really matter. you better not get too negative. i'm hearing more about trends in the sector
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i'm giving you my new frphrase r the trend. stay with cramer (vo) everyone knows to get wireless savings, you need to be on a family pla- ...oh... (jane) with visible, i get unlimited data for as low as $25 a month. no family needed. (vo) i guess i spoke too soon. visible. single-line, unlimited data as low as $25 a month.
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lastly jpmorgan held its 8th annual retail round up conference where they host executives from scores of retailers. tonight we're checking in with if host of that event.
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welcome back to "mad money." >> thanks for having me back perhaps wall street is more gloomy about the consumer than the reality. >> i think you nailed it the over arching theme was a resilient consumer you couldn't miss it i would say it's a balanced tone what's interesting is this resilient consumer matches our chase consumer proprietary data. march for the consumer spending was up 8%. that's 100 basis points better than february. that's double the pace of pre-pandemic spending. now you're seeing shifting you are seeing a consumer on occasion return to work you're seeing home and more
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larger ticket furniture. there are shifts in the underlying consumer but the macro is strong. it's led by employment wages are consumer consume err resiliency was the m of the game with nearly 20 companies attending and others we have spoken to across the space. >> give us a sense of who is taking advantage of the situation and really being a stand out. maybe some companies we haven't talked about much because they weren't able to capitalize before.
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it gives the consumer an extra $125 of discretionary income as well as numbers of hours worked in the core consumer control i would put five below in that camp dollar tree in the camp. that's how we see the low income demographic playing out on the winner secondarily, you want t stick with strong brands with pricing power. that would be nike, lululemon. in the specialty camp that's where i see bath and body works is stand out i would see victoria secret in that camp. >> let's talk about the latter
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i haven't paid much attention to it because i wanted to come down do where the level might be that it's silly i look at that with great yield and i think, it's gotten silly i don't know how that happened though >> look, there's another bucket as you brought up. balance sheets for the retailers that i cover if i hold at the death to ebitda levels, we calculate that roughly my group could buy back 20% of the float in next two years. american eagle stands on that list. pricing will come back you're coming out of this with brands that have stronger
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control of their distribution, better balance sheet and that's what we're focused on. winners on the other side and with multiples to your point as you look at an american eagle and a number of different retailers that we cover on average our group is trading four to five turns below where they were pre-pandemic and every company that we cover has streptsenned their margin profile and have left dead in terms of leverage on the balance sheet with stronger cash flow profile. >> one last question, there's disconnect between you and what people on wall street are thinking you speak to every one of these companies. gasoline prices. they be sending false tail to people who don't go to dirty work like you do
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here at jpmorgan as we look at the underlying consumer credit data, it remains strong through march. where do we go from here that where i think the employment picture comes in and i'll tell you across the companies that we're at our conference, that's the primary hand wages that are higher so the incoming dollars in terms of the number of hours that the consumer can work are in the consumer control to me that is the current consumer psychology. they're not happy about paying higher prices at the pump. they're not happy about paying more more groceries but the incoming dollars remain in their control. sgll i >> i'm going to leave it there i read your stuff and your stuff
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is so on point and current i wish everybody did the man who understands this group. we call him the ax thank you so much for coming on the show >> thanks again. >> "mad money" is back after the break. no need for meteorologists today's forecast calls for thunder and lightning. the lightning round is next. ♪♪ ♪♪
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♪♪ take the world by cloud. accenture let there be change.
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it is time then the lightning round is over are you ready? tom in colorado. tom. >> caller: i've taken your advice on most of my portfolio, including my number one holding. you always say buy stocks that make money however, i got caught up in draftkings i have a pretty big position at $38. what's your advice about my position and the stock >> tom, we never care about where the stocks come from we care about where they are going. they are in a battle a pure battle. there's in sign that the battle is over. you're take some suffering until they win, but i do think they will win let's go to john in florida.
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john >> caller: jim, thanks for taking my call i got into this stock right at about 20 bucks i traded out at 16 got back in at 10 thinking it can't do lower what do i do with sofi >> sofi can't catch a break. the main business was student loan and the president saying, you don't have to pay for now. well they get hurt yes, i felt the t-- it. i felt it at 9 i can want 't tell you to sell t it has stock l let's go to calum in washington. >> caller: i'm asking you about the stock edit >> no. i'm not saying it's a fad. i think it's great i am saying you cannot buy
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growth stocks that have no hope of making money. not in this environment. no way, no how jeff in hawaii jeff >> caller: aloha from the big island i have a daughter, 17. my son is 14 they got money for christmas i kind of searched around, talked to a few of my relatives and they gave me a few options i looked at altrea to start them off. they will only get like ten shares a piece but it's a start. what would you suggest >> well, a problem is it's tobacco. that's not what i'm fond of. i didn't mind. it's a good one. it's got good yield. if you don't care then it's fine that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade
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we should stop talking about the great resignation and start talking about the great liberation it makes it sound like people quit their jobs for parts unknown. i take a much more positive note workers taking advantage of their time in lock doindown to rethink their entire existence the freedom to not come into the office gave you plenty of time to plan your next move we know the next move happens to be starting your own business. according to paychex it's been a number of newly formed businesses i think the huge part of finding qualified workers is these are the kind of individual who is save enough money to start their own enterprise i find this quite exciting some of it involves people who want to make things but never could make a living doing it until this new era of self-empowerment technology.
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take shopify, the company allow shawl business to make products and then easily sell them online the whole process was much more time consumer and expensive before shopify how about if you make your own hand crafts and list them on etsy covid give you the opportunity software from adobe or wix, your own online presence could be like the largest of stores make get some venture capital money for that idea of yours there's one downside say you're grcreating a restaurant, your price increase for food, for workers. most restaurants make mark up
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drinks then get their booze from the grocery store for a fraction of the cost someone been a small propriey t, opening your own restaurant feel like a pretty puric liberation you don't know that until you try t for yourself it's tremendous consequences one, it gives people a shot to be their own boss which is such fabulous thing especially when it's paid for by the government. the other is all workers have more bargaining power across the entire country consider the days of starbucks despite some of the most generous pay packages, there's the power to unionize. i know the company has generous 401k planplans the optics is for shareholders it's time to tip the scales. i'm sure the great liberation played a huge role
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let's stop it with the resignation stuff. instead, i want to cheer the people who take advantage of this economy to liberate themselves and run their own business when i see more entrepreneurs and bigger paychecks i think it's a "mad money. i'm gym cramer the news with shepard smith starts now a dire warning about the next phase of the war in ukraine. i'm carl quintanilla in for shepard smith. this is the news on cnbc >> they're repositioning they're refocusing on the donbas >> putin, will it change the war? >> the crackdown on ghost guns. >> all of the sudden it's no longer a ghost it has a return address. >> the new action taken and what it means noerz making, buying, and selling the guns. >> when you think about the compassion that he had >> tributes fo

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